Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NOG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Northern Oil and Gas Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Evelyn. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加北方石油和天然氣 2023 年第二季電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Evelyn Infurna。謝謝你，伊芙琳。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to NOG's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, after the market closed, we released our financial results for the second quarter. You can access our earnings release and presentation on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days. I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer; Nick O'Grady, our President; Adam Dirlam; our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen; and our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，歡迎參加 NOG 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。昨天收盤後，我們發布了第二季的財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上存取我們的收益發布和簡報。我們的 10-Q 表格將在接下來的幾天內向 SEC 提交。今天早上我們的執行長也加入了我的行列。尼克·奧格雷迪，我們的總裁；亞當·迪拉姆；我們的財務長查德·艾倫；以及我們的技術長 Jim Evans。

Our agenda for today's call is as follows: Nick will provide his remarks on the quarter and our recent accomplishments, then Adam will give you an overview of our operations, followed by Chad, who'll review our second quarter financials and walk through our updated 2023 guidance. After our prepared remarks, the executive team will be available to answer any questions.

我們今天電話會議的議程如下：尼克將發表他對本季度和我們最近取得的成就的評論，然後亞當將向您介紹我們的營運情況，然後是查德，他將回顧我們第二季度的財務狀況並介紹我們的最新成就2023 年指導。在我們準備好發言後，執行團隊將可以回答任何問題。

Before we go any further though, let me cover our safe harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings release as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update those forward-looking statements.

在我們進一步討論之前，讓我先介紹一下我們的安全港語言。請注意，我們今天的言論，包括對您問題的回答，可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與我們前瞻性陳述所設想的預期有重大差異。這些風險包括我們在收益發布以及向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的事項，包括我們的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨利潤和自由現金流。這些指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在我們的收益報告中找到。這樣，我就把電話轉給尼克。

Thank you, Evelyn. Welcome, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in our company. As usual, I'll get right to it with 4 key points. Number one, our investment philosophy is driving tangible results. Our second quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 16% year-over-year. Our quarterly cash flow from operations, excluding working cap was up 11% year-over-year. Over this same period, our weighted average fully diluted share count was up only 3%. Oil prices were down 32% and natural gas prices were down 69%.

謝謝你，伊芙琳。歡迎大家，早安，感謝您對我們公司的興趣。像往常一樣，我會從 4 個要點開始講起。第一，我們的投資理念正在推動實際的成果。我們第二季調整後 EBITDA 年成長 16%。我們的季度營運現金流（不包括工作上限）年增 11%。在同一時期，我們的加權平均完全稀釋股票數量僅增加了 3%。石油價格下跌 32%，天然氣價格下跌 69%。

Also, this quarter's results included the impact from our recent share offering with no financial benefit from the acquisitions that it funded. Suffice it to say, we've grown materially on a per share basis, while prices were down materially. The point I am driving here is that our company is focused on a fairly simple philosophy: finding ways to grow profits per share to investors over time and through cycle. We believe that is the path to driving sustainable share price outperformance. While Oil and Gas prices go through down periods that can and will affect our profits, it is our job to find ways to grow the business through such times. We are actively investing, hedging and looking to drive consistent long-term growth to profits and cash returns. This has driven and will drive future dividend growth and share performance.

此外，本季的業績包括我們最近發行股票的影響，但沒有從其資助的收購中獲得任何經濟利益。可以說，我們每股大幅成長，而價格卻大幅下降。我在這裡要表達的觀點是，我們公司專注於一個相當簡單的理念：尋找隨著時間和週期增加投資者每股利潤的方法。我們相信這是推動股價可持續跑贏的道路。雖然石油和天然氣價格經歷的下跌時期可能並將會影響我們的利潤，但我們的工作就是找到在這段時期發展業務的方法。我們正在積極投資、對沖，並尋求推動利潤和現金回報的長期持續成長。這已經並將推動未來的股息成長和股票表現。

Number two, our investment cycle is pivoting to harvest mode. As we entered 2023, we highlighted we would be spending approximately 60% of our capital in the first half of the year even though the completion activity was somewhat back-end loaded. Our D&C list today is materially more complete, meaning paid for than typical. This means even as the number of wells turned online rises in the coming quarters, we have front-end loaded much of the spending, and we should see a marked increase to free cash flow in the back half of the year.

第二，我們的投資週期正在轉向收穫模式。進入 2023 年時，我們強調，儘管竣工活動有些後端負荷，但我們將在今年上半年支出約 60% 的資本。今天我們的 D&C 清單實質上更加完整，這意味著比典型的付費。這意味著，儘管未來幾季上線的油井數量有所增加，但我們已經在前端承擔了大部分支出，我們應該會看到今年下半年自由現金流的顯著增加。

Number three, growth. Our growth continues on a strong pace, turbocharged by the bolt-on acquisitions of Forge and Novo, which will come into play in the second half of 2023. As we previously communicated, Novo is expected to close on August 15 and will be financed with cash on hand and borrowings on our revolver.

第三，成長。我們的成長繼續保持強勁步伐，這得益於對Forge 和Novo 的補強收購，這些收購將於2023 年下半年發揮作用。正如我們之前溝通的那樣，Novo 預計將於8 月15 日關閉，並將獲得以下資金：我們的左輪手槍上有手頭現金和借款。

We anticipate an acceleration of free cash flow for the back half of 2023 and continuing on into 2024. Importantly, as oil prices have improved in the third quarter at today's strip, we believe that NOG can fully repay our revolving credit facility by mid-2024, materially earlier than our internal expectations when we made the acquisitions.

我們預計 2023 年下半年自由現金流將加速，並持續到 2024 年。重要的是，由於第三季油價有所改善，我們相信 NOG 可以在 2024 年中期之前完全償還我們的循環信貸額度，大大早於我們進行收購時的內部預期。

We have added hedges recently and completed our targets for Novo as oil prices have rallied, locking in higher levels than we underwrote. To put the acquisition and subsequent financing into perspective, by around this time next year based on our projections, we could have a business producing 20% to 30% greater amounts of cash flow than today with materially less debt than we just reported. And this is at a backwardated pricing strip, mind you. This would imply from a total return perspective when including our dividend yield, we could deliver up to a 30-plus percent total return on our business, which compares favorably to the high payout, low growth strategies we've observed from some competitors and quite favorably with the long-term returns of the stock market, which brings me to number four, capital allocation.

隨著油價上漲，我們最近增加了對沖，並完成了 Novo 的目標，鎖定了高於我們承保的水平。從收購和後續融資的角度來看，根據我們的預測，到明年這個時候，我們的業務可能會產生比現在多20% 到30% 的現金流，而債務卻比我們剛剛報告的要少得多。請注意，這是一個逆價定價。這意味著從總回報的角度來看，當包括我們的股息殖利率時，我們可以為我們的業務提供高達30% 以上的總回報，這與我們從一些競爭對手和相當多的競爭對手那裡觀察到的高派息、低成長策略相比是有利的。股票市場的長期回報良好，這讓我想到了第四點，資本配置。

Our goal is to provide our shareholders with the highest possible total return over the long term. We say this every quarter, but it's important to us, and we believe it bears repeating. We recently announced a 3% increase in our common stock dividend for the third quarter of 2023, our tenth straight increase. Our view at NOG is that our scale should help us build a shareholder return program that can grow over time. As a result, we're instituting a policy of annual reviews of the dividend with the potential for interim changes should we experience significant sustained commodity repricing or if we execute on substantially accretive corporate actions. As always, we'll be mindful of risk and leverage while also providing an attractive risk-adjusted total return.

我們的目標是為股東提供盡可能最高的長期總回報。我們每季都會這麼說，但這對我們很重要，我們相信值得重複。我們最近宣布將 2023 年第三季的普通股股息增加 3%，這是我們連續第十次增加。我們在 NOG 的觀點是，我們的規模應該有助於我們建立一個可以隨著時間的推移而增長的股東回報計劃。因此，我們正在製定一項股息年度審查政策，如果我們經歷重大持續的商品重新定價或我們執行大幅增值的公司行動，則可能會進行臨時調整。一如既往，我們將注意風險和槓桿，同時提供有吸引力的風險調整總回報。

Our capital allocation is about maximizing potential returns, making our dollars go the farthest they can from a value creation perspective. The data overwhelmingly suggests NOG has thus far created more value and more long-term dividend growth by acquiring assets at a significant discount to what we already view as a discounted value for our stock, as you saw in the second quarter. This is capital allocation [101.] But there have been and will be times when these paradigms shift, allowing us to create more value by pouncing on undervalued securities. We are continually evaluating all options and executing on what we believe to be the best path for the company and our shareholders.

我們的資本配置是為了最大化潛在回報，讓我們的資金從價值創造的角度發揮最大作用。數據壓倒性地表明，迄今為止，NOG 通過以比我們已經認為的股票折現價值大幅折扣的價格收購資產，創造了更多價值和更長期的股息增長，正如您在第二季度看到的那樣。這就是資本配置[101.]但是這些範式曾經並且將來也會發生轉變，使我們能夠透過買入被低估的證券來創造更多價值。我們不斷評估所有選擇，並執行我們認為對公司和股東最好的道路。

We're truly excited to have executed on 2 large-scale joint development projects in the second quarter, specifically Forge and Novo. These 2 acquisitions are indicative of striking while the iron is hot. On prior conference calls, we shared that the opportunity set for NOG was the largest we had been presented with. In both cases, Forge and Novo were attractive, and we're excited to be working with [Bio] and Earthstone to create more value. We believe NOG is very well positioned from an asset and balance sheet perspective for the remainder of 2023 as well as for the year ahead.

我們非常高興在第二季執行了兩個大型聯合開發項目，特別是 Forge 和 Novo。這兩筆收購都是趁熱打鐵的表現。在先前的電話會議上，我們表示 NOG 所面臨的機會是我們所遇到的最大的機會。在這兩種情況下，Forge 和 Novo 都很有吸引力，我們很高興能與 [Bio] 和 Earthstone 合作創造更多價值。我們認為，從資產和資產負債表的角度來看，NOG 在 2023 年剩餘時間以及未來一年處於非常有利的位置。

Before I turn the call over to Adam, I did want to bring a personal matter to our investors' attention. As you may have seen, the 10b5-1 plan I entered into about a year ago got executed last week and additionally, I've entered into a modest monthly 10b5-1 plan to sell some shares over the next year to address some personal needs. Over my 5.5-year tenure here with NOG, I had never sold a share of stock and had only been a net buyer with 15,000 shares purchased with my own personal funds.

在將電話轉給 Adam 之前，我確實想提請投資者註意一件個人問題。正如您可能已經看到的，我大約一年前製定的10b5-1 計劃已於上週執行，此外，我還制定了一項適度的每月10b5-1 計劃，以在明年出售一些股票以滿足一些個人需求。在 NOG 的 5.5 年任期中，我從未出售過任何股票，只是用自己的個人資金購買了 15,000 股股票的淨買家。

NOG is and will remain the vast majority of my net worth. I believe in the company, and by that fact, it should ensure to all of you that I'm aligned with you all and highly motivated to deliver results and stock performance. I pride myself on always being direct and honest with you. So I don't want anyone to think that me selling some shares means something about my views on the company's future or trajectory.

NOG 現在並將繼續佔據我淨值的絕大多數。我相信公司，事實上，它應該向你們所有人確保我與你們所有人保持一致，並積極主動地交付業績和股票表現。我為自己始終對您保持直接和誠實而感到自豪。因此，我不希望任何人認為我出售一些股票意味著我對公司未來或發展軌蹟的看法。

Quite the contrary. Our executive compensation incentive structures are driven by all the right things, corporate return on capital targets, making more money for our shareholders and driving the stock price higher over time. A large proportion of our future compensation is directly achieved only through significant absolute long-term upside in the stock. So it should be clear that we are as hungry and motivated as ever to find ways to drive share prices higher. I just don't want this to be confused with personal decisions I may make from time to time.

恰恰相反。我們的高階主管薪酬激勵結構是由所有正確的事情、企業資本回報率目標、為股東賺更多錢並隨著時間的推移推高股價所驅動的。我們未來薪酬的很大一部分只能透過股票的絕對長期上漲來直接實現。因此，很明顯，我們一如既往地渴望並積極尋找推高股價的方法。我只是不希望這與我不時做出的個人決定混淆。

So with that out of the way, thanks for taking the time to listen today and a special thanks to the entire NOG team from top to bottom. NOG is on an incredible upward path with a bright future ahead, driven by our unique investment focused culture. I will close by reminding you, as I always do, that we are a company run by investors for investors. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Adam.

因此，感謝您今天抽出時間來聆聽，並特別感謝整個 NOG 團隊從上到下。在我們獨特的以投資為中心的文化的推動下，NOG 正走在令人難以置信的上昇道路上，前景光明。最後，我將像往常一樣提醒您，我們是一家由投資者為投資者經營的公司。然後，我會將電話轉給 Adam。

Thanks, Nick. I'd like to start by reviewing our quarterly operations and then we'll turn to our business development efforts in the M&A market. Second quarter operations were down the fairway as we continue to find ways to optimize our development programs, maintain capital efficiency and enhance returns. Turning lines for the quarter were as expected, adding approximately 13.8 net wells to production on par with first quarter's well additions. The Williston made up approximately 2/3 of the organic activity driven by larger working interest with several of our top operators. We exited the quarter with over 9,000 producing wells, and we will continue to leverage our proprietary information to make well-informed capital allocation decisions.

謝謝，尼克。我想先回顧一下我們的季度營運情況，然後我們將轉向我們在併購市場的業務發展工作。隨著我們繼續尋找優化開發計劃、保持資本效率和提高回報的方法，第二季的營運進展順利。本季的轉向生產線符合預期，淨產量增加約 13.8 口井，與第一季的油井增量相當。威利斯頓約佔有機活動的 2/3，這是由於與我們的幾家頂級營運商的更大合作興趣所致。本季結束時，我們擁有 9,000 多口生產井，我們將繼續利用我們的專有資訊來做出明智的資本配置決策。

Looking forward, we have been working with our operating partners, namely Midland-Petro and our Mascot project to adjust development schedules, which should drive long-term returns and reduce both shutting times and costs as we prosecute the program. This means that we will be deferring some of our completions into early 2024 that were originally scheduled to turn in line during the back half of 2023. The new plan which contemplates drilling and completing an increased quantity of wells in a single batch will set up a more capital-efficient 2024 as we incur a substantial portion of the development costs in '23 and reduce future costs related to shutting in wells for offset fracs.

展望未來，我們一直在與我們的營運合作夥伴（即 Midland-Petro 和我們的 Mascot 專案）合作，調整開發計劃，這應該會帶來長期回報，並在我們執行該計劃時減少關閉時間和成本。這意味著我們將把原定於 2023 年下半年完成的部分完井工作推遲到 2024 年初。新計畫考慮在單批中鑽探和完成更多數量的井，將設立一個2024 年資本效率更高，因為我們在23 年承擔了很大一部分開發成本，並減少了與關閉油井進行補償壓裂相關的未來成本。

Even more encouraging are the well results and outperformance that we have been seeing, not only with our Mascot project, but across all of our active basins. Despite some curtailments in production and deferments of completions in the Bakken related to lower commodity prices during the quarter, NLG saw record production levels in the Williston. We continue to actively manage our positions in North Dakota and Montana, resulting in some of the highest well productivity we have seen out of the basin to date. In the Marcellus, we continue to see strong well performance with Q2 production exceeding our internal expectations by 6%.

更令人鼓舞的是，我們不僅在 Mascot 項目上，而且在我們所有活躍盆地中都看到了良好的結果和優異的表現。儘管巴肯項目因本季大宗商品價格下跌而出現一些減產和竣工推遲，但 NLG 的威利斯頓項目仍創下了創紀錄的產量水平。我們繼續積極管理我們在北達科他州和蒙大拿州的地位，從而實現了迄今為止我們在該盆地看到的最高的油井產能。在 Marcellus，我們繼續看到強勁的油井表現，第二季產量超出我們的內部預期 6%。

Our wells in process continue to build as we added 8.7 net wells quarter-over-quarter, which excludes the pending Novo transaction. As we look to close Novo in the middle of August, we expect to add an additional 6.1 net wells to our in-process list. The activity across our scaled position in the Permian has been accelerating, where 50% of NOG's activity now comes from, up from just 18% of our oil-weighted activity at the beginning of the year. This has driven our in-process list to all-time highs with an average working interest that is nearly 20% higher than that of our average working interest related to our producing wells. This means that we can do more regardless of rig levels and provides us a seat at the table with our operating partners, giving us additional transparency as we prosecute our business.

我們的在建井繼續建設，環比淨增加 8.7 口井，其中不包括待決的 Novo 交易。當我們計劃在 8 月中旬關閉 Novo 時，我們預計會在我們的處理中清單中添加額外的 6.1 口淨井。我們在二疊紀地區的活動一直在加速，目前 NOG 50% 的活動來自二疊紀，而年初我們的石油加權活動僅佔 18%。這使得我們的處理中清單達到歷史最高水平，平均工作興趣比我們與生產井相關的平均工作興趣高出近 20%。這意味著無論鑽機水平如何，我們都可以做得更多，並為我們提供了與營運合作夥伴共同參與的席位，從而在我們開展業務時提供了額外的透明度。

Turning to well costs. We continue to have discussions with both our large and small operators regarding a cooling of inflationary pressures, which has been encouraging. Regardless of size, each has seen green shoots in reducing overall well costs. Quarter-over-quarter, we saw average well costs down 6% on an absolute basis and down 9% normalized for lateral length. This was driven both from longer laterals and a stronger deceleration in inflation across the Williston.

轉向油井成本。我們繼續與大型和小型業者就通膨壓力降溫進行討論，這是令人鼓舞的。無論規模大小，每家公司都在降低整體油井成本方面看到了曙光。與上一季相比，我們看到平均井成本絕對值下降了 6%，橫向長度歸一化下降了 9%。這是由更長的支線和威利斯頓河沿岸通貨膨脹更強勁的減速所推動的。

Notwithstanding a further material upward move in commodity prices, we would expect to see the benefits begin to translate as we move into 2024, but remain conservative in our estimates given the overall market volatility. During the quarter, we elected the 9.4 net wells with about 2/3 of those weighted towards the Williston, 30% to the Permian and the remainder to the Marcellus. Quality remains high as the consent rate held above 90%.

儘管大宗商品價格進一步大幅上漲，但我們預計，隨著進入 2024 年，收益將開始轉化，但考慮到整體市場波動，我們的預測仍保持保守。在本季度，我們選擇了 9.4 個淨井，其中約 2/3 分佈在 Williston 井，30% 分佈在 Permian 井，其餘的分佈在 Marcellus 井。品質仍然很高，同意率保持在 90% 以上。

On the business development front, we alluded to the record backlog of M&A opportunities we were seeing on our Q1 call and executed on some of the highest quality opportunities that were in the market during the first half of the year.

在業務發展方面，我們提到了我們在第一季電話會議上看到的創紀錄的併購機會積壓，並在上半年市場上執行了一些最高品質的機會。

Our size and scale create a competitive advantage in the non-op space, where we now have a myriad of ways to allocate capital to M&A. Our ability to contribute meaningful capital alongside our operating partners has opened the door to an expanded set of opportunities, which we've now shown we can thoughtfully execute on. By partnering to co-buy an operated asset or buying down a minority interest from our operators, we build alignment, long data transparency and can take an active role as operational decisions are made. This is by no means a shift in our acquisition strategy as we continue to review nonoperated packages, drilling ventures and our ground game opportunities. Simply put, we have more opportunities to deploy capital than others, which gives us the ability to be more discerning.

我們的規模和規模在非營運領域創造了競爭優勢，我們現在有多種方式為併購分配資本。我們與營運合作夥伴一起貢獻有意義的資本的能力為更多的機會打開了大門，我們現在已經證明我們可以深思熟慮地執行這些機會。透過合作共同購買營運資產或從營運商手中購買少數股權，我們建立了一致性、長期數據透明度，並可以在營運決策時發揮積極作用。這絕不是我們收購策略的轉變，因為我們將繼續審查非營運包、鑽探企業和我們的地面遊戲機會。簡單來說，我們比別人有更多的機會來配置資本，這讓我們有能力更敏銳。

As we look at the assets that are in the market today, the current mix is robust, albeit limited in quality. That said, things can change quickly as we continue to source multiple off-market opportunities and others are [BRAC2] market. Regardless, we will remain disciplined in both our approach and underwriting as we navigate the rest of the year. While our major acquisitions, we're taking the headlines, we remained extremely busy with our ground game during the second quarter. We closed on 13 transactions through various structures that will set up for the drilling of an additional 16.7 net wells through 2024, and we're also able to add an additional 942 net acres. Four of those transactions during the quarter were through drilling partnerships in the Delaware as operators continue to search for capital to fund the drilling projects and manage capital outlay. These capital management situations are not limited to smaller operators either as 3/4 of the drilling partnerships signed during the quarter were with our large-cap operators.

當我們審視當今市場上的資產時，儘管品質有限，但當前的資產組合很穩健。也就是說，隨著我們繼續尋找多個場外機會，而其他機會是 [BRAC2] 市場，情況可能會迅速改變。無論如何，在今年剩下的時間裡，我們將在我們的方法和承保方面保持紀律。雖然我們的重大收購成為頭條新聞，但我們在第二季度仍然非常忙於我們的地面遊戲。我們透過各種結構完成了 13 筆交易，這些交易將在 2024 年之前額外鑽探 16.7 口淨井，我們還能夠額外增加 942 英畝的淨面積。本季的其中四筆交易是透過特拉華州的鑽井合作夥伴進行的，因為營運商繼續尋找資金來資助鑽井項目並管理資本支出。這些資本管理情況不僅限於小型營運商，因為本季簽署的鑽井合作夥伴關係中有 3/4 是與我們的大型營運商簽署的。

All in all, we remain extremely busy on the business development front with asset opportunities available to NOG remaining at all-time highs. Regardless of the opportunity set, our focus remains on asset quality with resilience in any commodity market and generating meaningful returns for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Chad.

總而言之，我們在業務開發方面仍然非常忙碌，NOG 可用的資產機會仍保持在歷史最高水準。無論機會如何，我們的重點仍然是在任何商品市場中具有彈性的資產質量，並為我們的股東創造有意義的回報。有了這個，我就把它交給乍得。

Thanks, Adam. I'll start by reviewing second quarter results and provide additional color on the operating update we released on July 25. Our Q2 average daily production topped the high end of our recently released estimates at 90,878 BOE per day, a 25% increase compared to Q2 of 2022. Oil volumes were up slightly over Q1 as we experienced better well performance across all basins, which was partially offset by deferments in the Williston as a result of the volatile commodity price backdrop during the quarter.

謝謝，亞當。我將首先回顧第二季度的業績，並為我們7 月25 日發布的營運更新提供更多資訊。我們第二季度的日均產量超過了我們最近發布的預測的上限，為每天90,878 桶油當量，與第二季度相比增加了25% 2022 年，石油產量較第一季略有增加，因為我們在所有盆地的油井表現均有所改善，但由於本季度大宗商品價格波動，威利斯頓油田的產量延期，部分抵消了這項影響。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $315.5 million in Q2, up 16% over the same period last year, and our second quarter free cash flow was $47.6 million, despite continued elevated levels of organic and inorganic investment, TIL deferrals and commodity price volatility. Adjusted EPS was $1.49 per share. Oil realizations continue to be better than internally expected as Q2 differentials came in at $2.65 per barrel due to continued strong in-basin pricing and having more barrels weighted towards the Permian, which are typically priced tighter.

儘管有機和無機投資、TIL 延期和大宗商品價格波動水準持續上升，第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.155 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%，第二季自由現金流為 4,760 萬美元。調整後每股收益為 1.49 美元。石油變現持續優於內部預期，由於盆地內定價持續強勁，且二疊紀盆地的石油產量通常偏緊，第二季的價差為每桶 2.65 美元。

Natural gas realizations were 137% of benchmark prices for the second quarter. However, NGL prices weakened as we moved throughout the quarter and we are currently seeing realizations more in line with our stated guidance.

第二季天然氣實現量是基準價格的 137%。然而，隨著整個季度的變化，液化天然氣價格走弱，目前我們看到的實現情況更符合我們既定的指導。

As expected, LOE came in at $10.20 per BOE as a result of our firm transport charge that occurs in Q2 of every year from our Marcellus properties. We expect the firm transport program will expire in 2025 based on current estimates.

正如預期的那樣，由於每年第二季度我們的 Marcellus 資產產生固定運輸費用，LOE 的價格為每桶油當量 10.20 美元。根據目前的估計，我們預計該運輸計劃將於 2025 年到期。

Budgeted CapEx cadence is on track with our expectations. We have incurred $445 million year-to-date or roughly 60% of our initial total budget, and we have updated guidance to reflect development plan changes and deferrals discussed earlier as well as incremental CapEx for Forge and Novo.

預算資本支出節奏符合我們的預期。年初至今，我們已支出 4.45 億美元，約佔初始總預算的 60%，並且我們更新了指導意見，以反映前面討論的開發計劃變更和延期以及 Forge 和 Novo 的增量資本支出。

For the year, we anticipate budgeted CapEx to be in the range of $764 million to $800 million. As we previously announced, we anticipate CapEx cadence for the second half of the year to be equally weighted in the third and fourth quarters. The balance sheet was further enhanced in the quarter, reflecting an active M&A season with a $500 million senior notes offering to term out a portion of our revolver followed by a $225 million equity offering in between announcing Forge and Novo acquisitions.

我們預計今年的預算資本支出將在 7.64 億美元至 8 億美元之間。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們預計今年下半年的資本支出節奏在第三季和第四季的權重相同。本季的資產負債表進一步增強，反映了併購季節的活躍，發行了 5 億美元的高級票據來確定我們部分左輪手槍的期限，隨後在宣布收購 Forge 和 Novo 之間發行了 2.25 億美元的股票。

Leverage at the end of the quarter was 1.34x net debt to annualized second quarter EBITDA. At the end of the quarter, we had 0 borrowings on our revolver with ample liquidity of over $1 billion to support our business. We will finance Novo with borrowings on our revolver, so we are likely to see our leverage ratio tick up again in the third quarter.

本季末的槓桿率為淨負債與第二季年化 EBITDA 的 1.34 倍。截至本季末，我們的左輪手槍借款為零，擁有超過 10 億美元的充足流動性來支持我們的業務。我們將透過左輪手槍借款為 Novo 提供資金，因此我們的槓桿率可能會在第三季再次上升。

That being said, we expect to return to our stated leverage targets in the next 12 months ahead of our initial forecast. With the contribution of Forge and Novo as well as the current strip, we expect the revolver to be undrawn by the start of the third quarter of 2024 and as we organically delever.

話雖如此，我們預計將在未來 12 個月內恢復到我們既定的槓桿目標，比我們最初的預測更早。憑藉 Forge 和 Novo 以及當前條帶的貢獻，我們預計左輪手槍將在 2024 年第三季初以及我們有機去槓桿化時取消。

As we announced yesterday, the elective commitment amount and the borrowing base will be upsized on our revolving credit facility to $1.25 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively, once we close the Novo acquisition.

正如我們昨天宣布的，一旦我們完成對 Novo 的收購，我們的循環信貸安排的選擇性承諾金額和借款基礎將分別擴大到 12.5 億美元和 18 億美元。

Turning to our revised annual guidance. We have adjusted our 2023 production guidance to a range of 96,000 to 100,000 BOE per day and are anticipating production for the third quarter in the range of 99,000 to 103,000 BOE per day, which contemplates a mid-August closing for Novo.

轉向我們修訂後的年度指引。我們已將 2023 年產量指引調整至每天 96,000 至 100,000 桶油當量，並預計第三季的產量將在每天 99,000 至 103,000 桶油當量，預計 Novo 將於 8 月中旬關閉。

We have tightened expectations for our oil cut to a range of 62% to 63%, reflecting year-to-date pricing and adjusting for recent M&A, particularly Novo. Our TIL estimates for 2023 were reset to a range of 75 to 78 net wells, reflecting changes to the Mascot drilling plan and previously discussed deferrals experienced in the second quarter. We made modest guidance revisions to LOE, G&A and realizations, mostly related to anticipated contribution and the lower cost structure associated with our increased exposure to the Permian. We have tightened the range for LOE, keeping the low end at $9.35 and tighten the high end to $9.55 for anticipated production expenses associated with Forge and Novo.

我們已將石油減產預期收緊至 62% 至 63%，反映了今年迄今的定價以及對近期併購（尤其是 Novo）的調整。我們對 2023 年 TIL 的估計被重置為 75 至 78 口淨井，反映了 Mascot 鑽井計劃的變化以及之前討論的第二季度的延期。我們對 LOE、G&A 和變現進行了適度的指導修訂，主要與預期貢獻以及與我們增加二疊紀業務相關的較低成本結構有關。我們收緊了 LOE 的範圍，將低端保持在 9.35 美元，並將與 Forge 和 Novo 相關的預期生產費用的高端收緊至 9.55 美元。

On differentials, we're upping our gas realizations to 85% to 95% and have tightened oil differentials to a range of $3.25 to $4.25, reflecting better pricing year-to-date. The increased gas realizations are tied to processing costs embedded within our LOE. Our expected cash and noncash G&A ranges were tightened by bringing down the high end of the respective ranges by $0.05 per BOE.

在差價方面，我們將天然氣實現率提高到 85% 至 95%，並將石油差價收緊至 3.25 美元至 4.25 美元的範圍，反映出今年迄今為止更好的定價。天然氣實現量的增加與我們 LOE 中包含的加工成本有關。我們對現金和非現金 G&A 預期範圍進行了收緊，將各自範圍的上限降低了每桶當量 0.05 美元。

In an effort to provide better transparency to our adjusted EPS calculation, we introduced guidance on our DD&A rate per BOE for 2023 in the range of $13 to $13.80. In the second quarter, DD&A was $12.87, which reflects the additional Forge to our asset base with no corresponding production volumes. The higher rate for the year reflects the addition of Forge and Novo to our asset base. So we gave a fairly detailed operations and guidance update, we did not discuss taxes, and we are frequently asked about the timing of the expected amount.

為了提高調整後每股收益計算的透明度，我們引入了 2023 年每桶油當量 DD&A 費率的指引，範圍為 13 美元至 13.80 美元。第二季度，DD&A 為 12.87 美元，這反映了我們資產基礎上增加了 Forge，但沒有相應的產量。今年較高的利率反映出 Forge 和 Novo 已加入我們的資產基礎。因此，我們提供了相當詳細的營運和指導更新，我們沒有討論稅收，而且我們經常被問及預期金額的時間安排。

We continue to expect to be a cash taxpayer in 2024 and our preliminary estimates as of today is the expectation of a $10 million to $15 million 2024 tax outlay with a more fulsome tax outlay in the following years. Changes in oil and gas prices could have a substantive impact on this estimate. So we'll keep you informed as time goes on. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.

我們仍預計在 2024 年成為現金納稅人，截至目前為止我們的初步估計是 2024 年稅收支出預計為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，未來幾年稅收支出將更加豐厚。石油和天然氣價格的變化可能會對這項估計產生實質影響。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會隨時通知您。這樣，我會將電話轉回接線生進行問答。

We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question is from Scott Hanold with RBC.

我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的史考特·漢諾德。

I was wondering if you could discuss how you think about like the M&A landscape going forward? I know, Nick, you had said you strike when the iron is hot. But I guess, from Adam's commentary, it looks like the quality has made it cooling a little bit. And as you kind of think about that relative to that free cash flow being deployed to debt reduction and/or buybacks, can you just give us your view of the landscape of M&A and kind of managing the balance sheet over the next year?

我想知道您是否可以討論一下您對未來併購前景的看法？我知道，尼克，你說過趁熱打鐵。但我猜，從 Adam 的評論看來，品質似乎讓它冷卻了一點。當您思考相對於用於減少債務和/或回購的自由現金流時，您能否向我們介紹您對明年併購和資產負債表管理情況的看法？

Scott, I mean, I think I also in my prepared comments, talked a lot about capital allocation, right? I mean I think we want to do what's right for the business, and we weigh all these decisions against each other. I would agree that as we pointed out, I think the large-scale M&A landscape for the moment looks less exciting to us. But Adam also pointed out that, that can change over time, and we get phone calls every day from things that may or may not be on the market. We'll take those in stride. I think that being said, I think when we look at this and these dollars are fighting, and I mean, I think the outage I would give you is if you have a car loan at 2% and you're earning 5% in your savings account, it makes no sense to pay off that loan, even if you want to have no debt.

史考特，我的意思是，我想我在準備好的評論中也談到了很多關於資本配置的問題，對吧？我的意思是，我認為我們想做對業務有利的事情，並且我們會相互權衡所有這些決定。我同意，正如我們所指出的，我認為目前大規模併購的前景對我們來說似乎不那麼令人興奮。但亞當也指出，這可能會隨著時間的推移而改變，我們每天都會接到來自市場上可能存在或可能不存在的東西的電話。我們會泰然處之。我認為話雖這麼說，我認為當我們看到這個問題時，這些美元正在戰鬥，我的意思是，我認為我會給你帶來的中斷是，如果你有2% 的汽車貸款，而你的收入為5%。儲蓄帳戶，即使您不想負債，償還貸款也是沒有意義的。

And so we think about it the same way, which is that the extent we're focused on improving returns to stockholders and allocating capital in stride. And so to that point, we have allocated, obviously, to M&A because it's provided a higher return to our stockholders than almost anything else. That does change though, right? That paradigm can shift. And so for the moment, I don't think we see a lot of compelling large-scale M&A opportunities and the default case in which is to repay debt and then ultimately, as we reach our targets, you start to pivot. I mean I think we have a slide, I think it's Slide 13 in our presentation that you should say pretty succinctly. I think we're willing to take leverage to about 1.5 turns for the right opportunities. And I think when we really get below 1x, it tends to lead to accelerated shareholder returns, right? And I think that, that in and of itself should kind of give you the governors of how we're going to look at this going forward.

因此，我們以同樣的方式思考這個問題，即我們專注於提高股東回報和從容地分配資本的程度。因此，到目前為止，我們顯然已將資金分配給併購，因為它為我們的股東提供了比幾乎其他任何事情都更高的回報。但這確實會改變，對吧？這種範式可以改變。因此，目前，我認為我們沒有看到很多引人注目的大規模併購機會和違約案例，其中償還債務，然後最終，當我們達到我們的目標時，你開始轉向。我的意思是，我認為我們有一張投影片，我認為是我們簡報中的投影片 13，您應該說得很簡潔。我認為我們願意將槓桿率提高到 1.5 倍左右來尋找合適的機會。我認為當我們真正低於 1 倍時，往往會導致股東回報加速，對吧？我認為，這本身應該讓各位管理者了解我們將如何看待未來的發展。

Yes, that's pretty clear. And my follow-up, just if you can give us a view of what you're seeing out there from operators in the Bakken and Permian. I think there may have been some modest deferrals in terms of your operators completions in the Bakken. Are you still seeing that? And how is the Permian setting up in terms of like just the normal non-op opportunities outside of Mascot?

是的，這很清楚。我的後續行動是，請您向我們介紹巴肯和二疊紀運營商所看到的情況。我認為，就巴肯的操作員完成情況而言，可能會有一些適度的延遲。你還看到那個嗎？就 Mascot 以外的正常非作業機會而言，二疊紀是如何建立的？

Scott, I think the Bakken -- some of the deferrals that we alluded to in our pre-release is really representative of maybe 1 or 2 operators where we've got some outsized working interest, maybe more sensitive from a commodity pricing standpoint. We're having those conversations with the operators right now, where we stand today. Those commodity thresholds are being met and so as far as anticipated completions and whatnot, we've got that couched, call it, Q4 timing, but that's also going to be dependent on logistics and everything else. And so that could get pulled. It could potentially get pushed depending on kind of that volatility.

斯科特，我認為巴肯——我們在預發布中提到的一些延期實際上代表了可能有1 或2 個運營商，我們在這些運營商中有一些巨大的工作興趣，從商品定價的角度來看可能更敏感。我們現在正在與營運商進行這些對話，也就是我們今天所處的位置。這些商品閾值正在滿足，就預期完成情況等而言，我們已經表達了這一點，稱之為第四季度的時間安排，但這也將取決於物流和其他一切。所以這可能會被取消。根據波動的類型，它可能會被推高。

And then as far as Texas and New Mexico goes, it's steady as it goes. Obviously, we have some commentary around the Mascot project. That's obviously very specific, just given the stack pay and the overall kind of core completion activities that were running the ground with Midland Petro in that group, but everything else is generally steady as it goes. And then I think you might have alluded to the game opportunities, we continue to see those coming in the door every single day and the size and the scope of what those look like are all very different. And I think that gives us the ability to get picky in terms of where we're going to apply our capital dollars.

然後就德州和新墨西哥州而言，情況一直很穩定。顯然，我們對 Mascot 項目有一些評論。這顯然是非常具體的，考慮到堆疊薪酬和與米德蘭石油公司在該組中開展的核心完成活動的總體類型，但其他一切總體上都是穩定的。然後我想你可能已經提到了遊戲機會，我們每天都會看到那些機會進來，而且這些機會的大小和範圍都非常不同。我認為這使我們能夠對資本的用途進行挑剔。

Our next question is from John Freeman with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·弗里曼和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

First question, you mentioned on the AFEs, how we went from the $9.6 million in the first quarter down to $9 million in the second quarter, and we're sort of seeing some deflation is starting to kick in. Is there any color you all can give on just where we stand on AFEs maybe on a leading-edge basis?

第一個問題，您在 AFE 上提到，我們如何從第一季的 960 萬美元下降到第二季度的 900 萬美元，我們看到一些通貨緊縮開始出現。你們有什麼顏色嗎？能否介紹一下我們在AFE 方面的立場，也許是在領先的基礎上？

Yes. I mean I think I would just caveat all this. I mean I think that our view, and I think it's one that's been proven by the test time is that oil prices and service costs will move in sync with each other, right, from a margin perspective. And you've had a kind of unique environment over the last year where you've seen oil prices go down pretty materially. Natural gas prices going down materially. And activity has been coming down, but costs were taking some time to come down to meet that. And on believing it, you started to see that, that's also juxtaposed against a period where we've started to see oil prices rally.

是的。我的意思是我想我會警告所有這些。我的意思是，我認為我們的觀點，而且我認為這已經被測試時間所證明，從利潤的角度來看，石油價格和服務成本將彼此同步變化，對吧。去年，你經歷了一個獨特的環境，你看到油價大幅下跌。天然氣價格大幅下跌。活動一直在下降，但成本需要一段時間才能下降來滿足這項要求。相信這一點後，你會開始看到這一點，這也與我們開始看到油價上漲的時期並列。

And so I think as we look forward, I just want to caveat it and say that well the last shoot of fall really where you're going to see -- where you would see a material change to savings is going to be completions. And the completion cost is only going to materially come down to the extent that the rig count ultimately stays down. If prices rise, I would anticipate you're going to see the rig count come up modestly. And thus, with that, I think your chances of seeing material savings from here are going to be reduced. So I would say -- as I've said to a lot of our investors, you don't need to look really any farther than to the price of oil to think ultimately where the direction of service costs are going to go. But more specifically to your -- I'll let Jim or Adam talk specifically to any leading-edge changes versus that $9 million.

因此，我認為，當我們展望未來時，我只想警告一下，秋季的最後一次拍攝確實是您將看到的地方 - 您將看到節省的實質變化將是竣工。只有當鑽機數量最終維持下降時，完井成本才會大幅下降。如果價格上漲，我預計鑽機數量將會適度增加。因此，我認為你從這裡看到材料節省的機會將會減少。所以我想說——正如我對許多投資者所說的那樣，你不需要比石油價格更進一步地思考服務成本的最終走向。但更具體地說，我會讓 Jim 或 Adam 專門談談與 900 萬美元相比的任何前沿變化。

Yes. And I think antidotally, the conversations that we've had with our operators, we've generally seen it in more of the tangible casing, for example, even some of our smaller operators have seen reduction anywhere from, call it, 20% to 40% based on some of the conversations that we were having earlier in the year. And so I think some of that's got a little bit of room to give. Some of that also has to do with logistics and some of the issues that we're running into from a sourcing standpoint last year. Some of the other larger operators that we've been talking to have been laying down rigs and some of that is strategic and going back to the service providers in order to kind of cut better deals, drilling rates seem to be coming down marginally as well. But to next point, I think we're going to stay relatively conservative, especially with the volatility that we're seeing in the commodity market.

是的。我認為相反，我們與運營商進行的對話，我們通常在更多有形的外殼中看到它，例如，甚至我們的一些較小的運營商也看到了從 20% 到 20% 的減少。40%基於我們今年早些時候進行的一些對話。所以我認為其中一些還有一些空間可以考慮。其中一些也與物流以及我們去年從採購角度遇到的一些問題有關。我們一直在交談的其他一些較大的運營商一直在鋪設鑽機，其中一些是戰略性的，並返回到服務提供商以達成更好的交易，鑽探率似乎也略有下降。但接下來，我認為我們將保持相對保守，尤其是考慮到商品市場的波動。

Great. And then just my other question on the leverage slide that you referenced, Nick, that Slide 13, we basically show of where you all sort of view leverage in that 0 to 1.5x range and how you talked about kind of flexing leverage in the near term if needed for certain growth opportunities, which obviously you have done in speeds here recently with a number of big transactions. So you -- in that slide, it talks about on the lower end, it's kind of harvest mode towards the 0 leverage, upper end is invest. And Nick, you used the word harvest in your prepared remarks.

偉大的。然後是我關於你提到的槓桿幻燈片的另一個問題，尼克，幻燈片 13，我們基本上展示了你們在 0 到 1.5 倍範圍內的槓桿率看法，以及你如何談論近期的彈性槓桿率如果需要某些成長機會，則可以使用期限，顯然您最近已經通過一些大額交易快速完成了這一點。所以你——在那張幻燈片中，它談到了低端，這是一種朝向 0 槓桿的收穫模式，高端是投資。尼克，你在準備好的發言中使用了「收穫」這個詞。

So I guess I have kind of 2 parts: a, I guess, should we assume that, that means you start targeting the lower end just given what you said about large-scale M&A, et cetera, your comments on harvest, but then also what's not on that slide is how does just a commodity environment kind of overlay on this chart. If you were at a $90 world, I assume that your leverage, what you view as acceptable leverage is probably different than if you're in a $60 world?

所以我想我有兩個部分：a，我想，我們是否應該假設，這意味著你開始瞄準低端，只是考慮到你所說的大規模併購等，你對收穫的評論，但也該幻燈片上沒有介紹商品環境如何疊加在此圖表上。如果你處於 90 美元的世界，我假設你的槓桿，你認為可接受的槓桿可能與你處於 60 美元的世界不同？

Yes. I mean I would say that generally speaking, we're not running our leverage kind of -- just the one thing that this doesn't really point out to, which probably should is that we're not thinking -- we're thinking about this on a normalized ratio, right? We're not running spot $80 through and making the assumption if we're 1.5x at 1x lever at $80 forever, right? We're using a discounted price to that. We're kind of using a mid-cycle price in our mind.

是的。我的意思是，我想說的是，一般來說，我們並沒有發揮我們的槓桿作用——只是這並沒有真正指出的一件事，這可能應該是我們沒有思考——我們正在思考關於這個標準化比率，對吧？我們不會運行 80 美元現貨並假設我們永遠以 80 美元為 1.5 倍，1 倍槓桿，對嗎？我們使用的是折扣價。我們在腦海中使用的是中期價格。

But -- so I mean, I think to answer your question is like the one thing I would point out to, specifically, look, I think when you think about the uses of cash flow as you kind of reach those targets is obviously share repurchases, right? And share repurchases to us, it's not to suggest because we haven't done them recently that we don't think our equity is inexpensive at all, right? I think that, that's not the case. The reality has been that we've been able to buy assets at a material discount. So like I said in my call, an already discounted stock price.

但是 - 所以我的意思是，我認為回答你的問題就像我要指出的一件事，具體來說，看，我認為當你考慮實現這些目標時現金流的用途時，顯然是股票回購， 正確的？對我們來說，股票回購並不是因為我們最近沒有回購股票就表明我們認為我們的股票根本不便宜，對吧？我認為，事實並非如此。現實情況是，我們已經能夠以大幅折扣購買資產。正如我在電話中所說，股價已經打折。

So going back to my car loan analogy, whether or not that you're just getting a better return for the investors by doing so. But obviously, to the extent that the environment winds up being less so, that's an obvious default, we can afford it, but I think you need to have the risk metrics and kind of both a cyclical and oil price perspective as well as an aggregate leverage perspective to a point where you really want to do that. And obviously, that we have to have a view internally that, that is a good use of that capital, because there is also the default always if there's piling cash and waiting for a better day. I don't think we're afraid to do that either. I don't know if that answers it specifically, John. But not me, but didn't get there.

回到我的汽車貸款類比，無論你這樣做是否只是為投資者獲得更好的回報。但顯然，在環境最終變得不那麼糟糕的情況下，這是明顯的違約，我們可以承受，但我認為你需要有風險指標，以及週期性和石油價格的視角以及總體的視角。將視角發揮到你真正想要做到的程度。顯然，我們必須在內部有一個觀點，即這是對資本的良好利用，因為如果有大量現金並等待更好的一天，那麼總是存在違約。我認為我們也不害怕這樣做。我不知道這是否能具體回答這個問題，約翰。但不是我，但沒有到達那裡。

(Operator Instructions). Our next question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）。我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question is on the second half and possibly '24 activity. It sounds like -- I forget what slide this is on, but it sounds like based on your prepared remarks and looking at the slide, you all have a number of -- a material number of wells in progress, and you have confidence that your TILs will ramp through the remainder of 2024. I'm just wondering it sounds like this is the case, can you give us an idea of just the degree of that and which areas we'll see the most activity.

我的問題是關於下半年以及可能的 '24 活動。這聽起來像是——我忘記了這是在哪張幻燈片上，但聽起來根據你們準備好的發言和查看幻燈片，你們都有大量——大量的油井正在進行中，而且你們有信心你們的TIL 將在 2024 年剩餘時間內逐漸增加。我只是想知道聽起來確實如此，您能否讓我們了解一下這種情況的程度以及我們將看到哪些領域的活動最多。

Neil, I think as far as kind of the areas that you referenced, I think it's going to be largely split kind of 50-50. Maybe that gets pushed and fold in your goalposts are kind of 40-60, depending on what's going on in the Permian versus the Williston and maybe some of the larger working interest pads or units that we have, I guess, drilling down in that regard. I think you'll see some activity on the Texas, Delaware side as well as the Midland Basin. We've also got the majority of our Delaware wells in process are weighted towards Eddy and Lea County. And so to the extent that we see any sort of acceleration there, you could certainly see some additional exposure there. From the Bakken standpoint, it's the big 4 counties, McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn and Williams, and that hasn't changed for years.

尼爾，我認為就您提到的領域而言，我認為這將大致分為 50-50 種。也許你的球門柱上的推力和折疊程度是40-60，這取決於二疊紀與威利斯頓的情況，也許我們擁有的一些更大的工作興趣墊或單位，我猜，在這方面進行了深入研究。我認為您會在德克薩斯州、特拉華州以及米德蘭盆地看到一些活動。我們也在特拉華州生產的大部分油井都集中在埃迪縣和利縣。因此，只要我們看到任何形式的加速，你肯定會看到一些額外的風險。從巴肯的角度來看，這是四大縣：麥肯齊縣、蒙特雷爾縣、鄧恩縣和威廉斯縣，這一點多年來一直沒有改變。

Awesome. And then just a follow-up, maybe for you or Nick, I ask you guys this in a while. I just wondered, it seems like now on M&A, you guys continue to now really just a number of different types of deals versus early years when you just take sort of a minimal interest in well. I'm just wondering going forward now, do you all have a preferred structure on M&A? Or is it just a matter of what type of deal you all see?

驚人的。然後是一個後續行動，也許是對你或尼克來說，我一會兒會問你們這個問題。我只是想知道，現在在併購方面，你們現在實際上仍然只是進行一些不同類型的交易，而不是早年，當時你們對井的興趣很小。我現在只是想知道，你們在併購方面都有首選的結構嗎？或者這只是你們看到的交易類型的問題？

All of the above, Neal. I think we're economic creatures. I think we want to extract the best. I know it's sounds corny, but risk-adjusted return, right? So there's the raw return that obviously, any engineering deck is going to run through, but then you have to adjust that for the specific risks to the assets, so sometimes a required governance. I think Adam talked about this in his comments, and I think this is something that I would want to reiterate to our investors, which is that just because we've done several partnerships and sort of buy down structures of late doesn't mean that we're not still very active in our traditional non-op markets.

以上都是，尼爾。我認為我們是經濟動物。我認為我們想要提取最好的。我知道這聽起來很老套，但風險調整後的回報，對嗎？因此，顯然，任何工程平台都會經歷原始回報，但隨後您必須針對資產的特定風險進行調整，因此有時需要進行治理。我認為亞當在他的評論中談到了這一點，我認為這是我想向我們的投資者重申的事情，即僅僅因為我們已經建立了一些合作夥伴關係並且最近進行了某種收購結構並不意味著我們在傳統的非營運市場上仍然不太活躍。

In fact, I think that I would say there's a preference one way or the other. I'd say that the key things are that our capabilities are a lot larger than they were, and that might be why from a happenstance perspective that you've seen that as well as the ebbs and flows of the quality of assets that come to market. I mean, we've seen several traditional non-operated assets come to market this year, and they just happen to be pretty poor quality and (inaudible). And so I think that it's going to come, but that's not going to be the case every day. And so I don't think there's a preferred structure. I think we adjust our return thresholds and needs for governance or other things, depending on the concentration and the specific risks of the asset center.

事實上，我認為我會說有一種偏好。我想說，關鍵是我們的能力比以前大得多，這可能就是為什麼從偶然的角度來看，你已經看到了這一點，以及資產品質的起伏。市場。我的意思是，我們今年已經看到一些傳統的非經營資產進入市場，但它們的品質恰好很差（聽不清楚）。所以我認為它會到來，但情況不會每天都是這樣。所以我認為不存在首選結構。我認為我們會根據資產中心的集中度和具體風險來調整我們的回報門檻和治理需求或其他方面的需求。

It's building on that. It's definitely going to be asset specific, especially when you get into the drilling partnerships and some of the co-buying stuff, right? And so you kind of need to understand what the runway is on a prospective basis, right? You can buy an asset in time, but then what kind of governors do you have in place in order to maintain that alignment. And so that is going to boil down to the social issues and how those discussions are going with a particular operator. We've had operators come to us and propose buying an asset and it's something where they're going to be renting the asset for a period of time. And so is that the right partner for us, maybe, maybe not, depending on what we can put in those joint operating agreements and what everybody can kind of live with. So it's as much the social issues when we're talking about some of these partnerships as it is the assets themselves.

它是在此基礎上建構的。這肯定是特定於資產的，特別是當你進入鑽探合作夥伴關係和一些共同購買的東西時，對嗎？所以你需要了解跑道的預期，對嗎？你可以及時購買一項資產，但接下來你需要什麼樣的管理者來保持這種一致性。因此，這將歸結為社會問題以及與特定運營商的討論如何進行。我們已經有營運商來找我們並提議購買資產，他們將在一段時間內租用該資產。因此，對我們來說，也許是合適的合作夥伴，也許不是，這取決於我們可以在這些聯合營運協議中加入什麼以及每個人都能接受什麼。因此，當我們談論其中一些合作夥伴關係時，它不僅涉及資產本身，還涉及社會問題。

Our next question is from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

我們的下一個問題是查爾斯·米德和約翰遜·賴斯提出的。

Nick, Adam and Chad and to the whole NOG crew there. I think I have just one question. And on Slide 10, and first of all, I want to say thank you for giving us this detail about how the actuals are comparing to your acquisition case. But my question is this, how much -- it seems to me that most of the delta between your acquisition case and this new -- and the new, I guess, completion plan. It seems like we've seen some of it in Q2, but most of it is still in front of us. And if that's the case, is there anything that we can -- is there anything that the way that at the end of Q2, your actuals were ahead of the plan? Does that suggest that we're going to see that gap grow in the back half of '23?

尼克、亞當、查德以及所有 NOG 工作人員。我想我只有一個問題。在投影片 10 上，首先，我想說感謝您向我們提供有關實際情況與您的收購案例的比較的詳細資訊。但我的問題是，在我看來，你的收購案和新的完成計劃之間的大部分差異是多少。看起來我們在第二季度已經看到了其中的一些，但大部分仍然就在我們面前。如果是這樣的話，我們能做些什麼嗎——在第二季末，你們的實際情況是否超出了計劃？這是否表明我們會看到這種差距在 23 世紀後半段擴大？

Certainly, I mean to the extent that it continues at the pace it has, of course, I mean, I think we take it 1 well at a time, Charles. So I think we've been pretty conservative. And when I say we, I'll give Jim 100% credit and his team. But -- so well, maybe I'll take credit on top of that on -- but seriously, I think the answer is that we try really hard to take a conservative tact on performance and timing for that matter because timing does move all along -- moves all around all the time. But I do think that we've been really encouraged really through every producing period on these assets of how the wells have performed even when there have been issues here and there like there always are on these things.

當然，我的意思是它繼續以現有的速度發展，當然，我的意思是，我認為我們一次做得好，查爾斯。所以我認為我們一直都相當保守。當我說我們時，我將給予吉姆和他的團隊 100% 的信任。但是——好吧，也許我會在此基礎上獲得榮譽——但認真地說，我認為答案是我們非常努力地在性能和時間安排上採取保守的策略，因為時間確實一直在變化——一直在四處走動。但我確實認為，在這些資產的每個生產階段，我們都受到了真正的鼓勵，即使在這些事情上總是存在一些問題的情況下，油井的表現也確實如此。

Really, I think the old adage is in real estate, it's location, location, location. And I think it's the same thing as it pertains to this asset, which is this is just a -- this is a Ferrari assets sitting right in the heart of Midland County, no -- virtually no vertical penetrations on the properties. It is just virgin incredible rock. And so the well performance, are we surprised? Not really, but also it's a large project, and there's a lot of logistical things going on, as you've noticed, and that's why we've had to move some stuff around and learn as we go and try to find better ways to improve the returns. But overall, from a well performance perspective, I certainly think -- I'll let Jim add anything he wants, but I certainly think that we're optimistic that we can see continued performance on the assets.

真的，我認為古老的格言是關於房地產的，它的位置，位置，位置。我認為這與該資產的情況是一樣的，這只是——這是位於米德蘭縣中心的法拉利資產，不——幾乎沒有垂直滲透的​​房產。這只是令人難以置信的原始岩石。那麼如此出色的表現，我們感到驚訝嗎？並非如此，但它也是一個大型項目，正如您所注意到的，有很多後勤事務正在發生，這就是為什麼我們必須移動一些東西並邊走邊學習並嘗試找到更好的方法來提高回報。但總的來說，從良好績效的角度來看，我當然認為——我會讓吉姆添加他想要的任何內容，但我當然認為我們對看到資產的持續表現持樂觀態度。

Yes. I would just add the original expectation was that there was going to be another batch of wells getting completed in the third quarter coming online kind of towards the end of the third quarter. So what you see on that graph there for the daily production is ramping, that's kind of the last batch of wells for this year. So even though it's exceeding the original forecast, you kind of expect that to switch as you get that kind of towards Q3, Q4, where we recently thought there would be another batch of wells that ramp production further. We'll continue to see the production kind of decline until we get to the end of 2023 and then that next big batch of wells will start coming online in Q1 and Q2 of next year, which will drive the capital efficiency going into 2024.

是的。我想補充一點，最初的預期是，第三季將有另一批油井完工，並在第三季末上線。所以你在圖表上看到的日產量正在增加，這是今年的最後一批油井。因此，儘管它超出了最初的預測，但您預計隨著第三季、第四季的情況發生變化，我們最近認為會有另一批油井進一步提高產量。到 2023 年底，我們將繼續看到產量下降，然後下一批油井將在明年第一季和第二季開始上線，這將推動 2024 年的資本效率。

Our next question is from Donovan Schafer with Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

First, I want to ask talking about well costs, I know for operators, they have the real direct relationship with the service providers and a lot of times, they negotiate that pricing ahead of time before you guys would even get the AFEs from them. But I am curious, being that you guys are really kind of charting the path on the non-operator business model and reaching such large scale. And you've talked a lot about tail advantages that you get. I'm curious if -- as things stand today or maybe it's the case where this is a potential thing in the future, could there be an evolution here? Or again, maybe you already hear where you're able to get better pricing with service providers, as far as what ends up flowing through the AFE?

首先，我想問一下關於油井成本的問題，我知道對於運營商來說，他們與服務提供者有著真正的直接關係，很多時候，他們會在你們從他們那裡獲得 AFE 之前提前協商定價。但我很好奇，你們真的是在為非運營商商業模式繪製路徑並達到如此大規模。您已經談論了很多關於您獲得的尾部優勢。我很好奇，就目前的情況來看，或者也許這是未來可能發生的事情，這裡是否會發生演變？或者，也許您已經聽說過在哪裡可以從服務提供者那裡獲得更好的定價，就最終流經 AFE 的內容而言？

You can imagine a case where maybe an operator is dealing directly with the service providers. But if you add up your smaller minority interest, across all of your wells and your huge footprint, you could have a service provider that actually has more exposure to you in aggregate than they do to a single specific operator. So I'm just wondering, are you ever able to bring that to bear and get involved in that kind of level of conversation and negotiating pricing with the service providers. And if maybe not yet, is that something you would ever aspire to? Is there a way where that ever makes sense in kind of evolving the business model?

您可以想像這樣一種情況：運營商可能直接與服務提供者打交道。但是，如果將您所有油井和龐大足跡中較小的少數股權加起來，您可能會發現一家服務提供者實際上對您的暴露程度總體上比對單一特定運營商的暴露程度要高。所以我只是想知道，您是否能夠承受這一點並參與與服務提供者的這種級別的對話和定價談判。如果可能還沒有，那是您所渴望的嗎？有沒有一種方法可以讓商業模式的發展變得有意義？

I mean, Don, an interesting concept. The answer -- the short answer is no. I mean I think the one thing I want to tell you is that the AFE is not necessarily like the -- if Exxon is drilling a well for us, for example, the AFE is just an estimate, right? So it's not always tied directly to their latest service contractor costs, which is why oftentimes, we can take the AFE at face value with the assumption that maybe in today's environment that we'll see savings on the back end or in a period like last year where we might have a different assumption of where that well is ultimately going to cost versus the AFE.

我的意思是，唐，這是一個有趣的概念。答案——簡單來說是否定​​的。我的意思是，我想我想告訴你的一件事是，AFE 不一定像——例如，如果埃克森美孚為我們鑽井，AFE 只是一個估計，對吧？因此，它並不總是與他們最新的服務承包商成本直接相關，這就是為什麼我們經常可以從表面上看待AFE，並假設也許在今天的環境中，我們會看到後端或像去年一樣的時期節省今年，我們可能會對這口井的最終成本與 AFE 的成本有不同的假設。

So it is really an estimate in the -- they try to have contingency pieces in them and all those things, but they're not necessarily always leading edge, just like we didn't really see in the first quarter that -- a big change to those AFE costs, but there was an assumption that perhaps while those wells being completed, they would come in under budget effectively. As to whether we could aggregate our interest and go tell the service providers to do something, the answer is no. I will tell you where we're significant non-operators, oftentimes our credit profile is used to help the operating groups get a better term just because obviously, we're a creditworthy counterparty or a rated entity and stuff like that. So in that respect, we have kind of flexed our muscle at time, especially with some of our smaller groups. But I don't know if we could sit there and say, hey, we own 10% interest across all your wells and go to neighbors and help lower the rig rates. I don't know if we're there yet. But...

因此，這實際上是一個估計——他們試圖在其中加入應急措施以及所有這些東西，但它們不一定總是領先，就像我們在第一季沒有真正看到的那樣——一個很大的變化。這些 AFE 成本會發生變化，但有一個假設是，也許在這些井完工後，它們將有效地控制在預算之內。至於我們是否可以聚集我們的興趣並去告訴服務提供者做一些事情，答案是否定的。我會告訴你我們在哪裡是重要的非運營商，通常我們的信用狀況被用來幫助運營集團獲得更好的條款，因為顯然我們是一個信譽良好的交易對手或被評級的實體等等。因此，在這方面，我們有時會展示我們的力量，特別是對於我們的一些較小的團體。但我不知道我們是否可以坐在那裡說，嘿，我們擁有你們所有油井 10% 的權益，然後去鄰居那裡幫助降低鑽機費。我不知道我們是否已經到了。但...

No. I mean I think the more realistic concept has to do with kind of the drilling partnerships that we have in place and it's all going to be, again, a situational specific. But if we put together a drilling program with an operator and kind of have those guardrails as to how many wells are going to be drilled and those such things. A lot of times, what we'll build into those contracts. Our covenants for cooperation with the service company. And so the operator is obviously taking the lead on that. But when we're getting into water and takeaway and other midstream contracts, they've got a covenant with us that they need to provide those contracts to us will provide our input compare that to our underwriting and move things along accordingly.

不，我的意思是，我認為更現實的概念與我們現有的鑽探合作夥伴關係有關，這一切都將再次根據具體情況而定。但是，如果我們與操作員一起制定鑽井計劃，並就要鑽多少口井之類的事情制定一些防護措施。很多時候，我們會在這些合約中加入什麼內容。我們與服務公司的合作契約。因此，營運商顯然在這方面發揮了領導作用。但是，當我們進入供水、外賣和其他中游合同時，他們與我們達成了一項契約，即他們需要向我們提供這些合同，並將提供我們的意見，並將其與我們的承保進行比較，並相應地推動事情進展。

Okay. And just to be clear on that, are there some cases where you talk about the benefit of your credit kind of being brought into the picture? Are there some cases where it's sort of a joint -- what do they call joint and severed or several liabilities, so that gives added weight to your credit because under certain contracts or something if the operator were to grow whatever reason, worst-case scenario, default, then you guys provide some of that support? Or is it pretty much always like a joint and separate liability where your -- the value of your credit goes just as far as your minority interest?

好的。需要澄清的是，在某些情況下，您是否會談論將您的信用納入考慮範圍的好處？在某些情況下，是否存在某種聯合責任——他們稱之為連帶責任或分割責任，這樣會增加你的信用權重，因為在某些合約或其他情況下，如果運營商無論出於何種原因要成長，最壞的情況是，默認，那麼你們提供一些支援嗎？或者它幾乎總是像一種連帶和單獨的責任，您的信用價值與您的少數股東權益一樣多？

Yes. Everything is separate. None of these operators like going development agreements or anything like that or joint ventures, everything is...

是的。一切都是分開的。這些運營商都不喜歡簽訂開發協議或類似的協議或合資企業，一切都是...

The XYZ operator undergoes a contract, we're not liable if they default.

XYZ 運營商簽訂了合同，如果他們違約，我們不承擔責任。

That's right. (inaudible) joint working interest owner and was going to be paying a sizable chunk of the joint interest billing, having that kind of qualitative information is something that helps facilitate the process.

這是正確的。 （聽不清楚）共同工作權益所有者，並將支付相當大一部分聯合權益帳單，擁有此類定性資訊有助於促進這一過程。

Sure. Okay. And then as a follow-up, with the Marcellus, it looks like you guys had strong production there that Adam, I think you talked about. I'm curious with the Mountain Valley pipeline approval happening with the debt ceiling that happened at the end of May. And I know there's been some holdups at like the Fourth Circuit Court, but it looks like just yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court, the stuff gets felt contentious. And so the Fourth Circuit Court tried to put a temporary hold on things.

當然。好的。然後作為後續行動，與馬塞勒斯一起，看起來你們在那裡有很強的生產力，我想你談到了亞當。我對山谷管道的批准以及五月底發生的債務上限感到好奇。我知道在第四巡迴法院等地方遇到了一些阻礙，但看起來就在昨天，在美國最高法院，這些事情讓人感到有爭議。因此，第四巡迴法院試圖暫時擱置此事。

U.S. Supreme Court, I guess, yesterday said, no, you can't even do a temporary hold. We're going to give these guys the benefit of the [dot] and let them proceed with everything. So it seems like the weights of the courts and everything is -- and Congress at this point is really getting thrown behind getting the Mountain Valley pipeline done to service the Appalachian Basin I'm just curious if that's -- if any of these news events, if you have any color or commentary or thoughts related to that and your interest -- current interest and potentially prospective interest in the Marcellus?

我想，美國最高法院昨天說，不，你甚至不能暫時擱置。我們將為這些人提供[點]的好處，讓他們繼續進行一切。因此，看起來法院和一切的權重都是——國會在這一點上確實被拋在了修建山谷管道以服務阿巴拉契亞盆地的後面，我只是好奇這是否是——這些新聞事件中是否有任何一個，如果您有任何與此相關的色彩、評論或想法以及您的興趣（當前對 Marcellus 的興趣和潛在的潛在興趣）？

Not really, Donovan. I mean I think the -- look, I think you asked something similar last quarter, the extent that it has a long-term improvement for basis differentials, awesome. We'll probably see more development on our lands. We don't really buy things in anticipation of events like this. Obviously, that it would have some improvement on the basin as a whole. I think I'm not (inaudible) more now than I have been in the past that maybe we can actually get the infrastructure built without (inaudible) special interest in this country, but that's a longer conversation.

不完全是，多諾萬。我的意思是，我認為——聽著，我想你上個季度問過類似的問題，它對基差的長期改善程度，太棒了。我們可能會在我們的土地上看到更多的開發。我們並不是真的因為預期會發生這樣的事件而購買東西。顯然，這會對整個盆地產生一些改善。我認為我現在並不（聽不清楚）比過去更認為也許我們實際上可以在沒有（聽不清楚）對這個國家有特殊興趣的情況下建造基礎設施，但這是一個更長的對話。

It just takes Congress -- it just takes Congress in the Supreme Court.

只需要國會——只需要國會在最高法院。

A similar situation with (inaudible) access pipeline, right? I mean it was all fits and starts. And so I don't think we're going to be planning on anything to Nick's point, obviously optimistic, but we're not making any business decisions around this.

（聽不清楚）訪問管道的情況類似，對吧？我的意思是，一切都是斷斷續續的。因此，我認為我們不會按照尼克的觀點制定任何計劃，這顯然是樂觀的，但我們不會圍繞此做出任何商業決策。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass the floor back over to Mr. O'Grady for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想請奧格雷迪先生做結束語。

Thank you all for your interest in our company and listening today. We'll see you on the next quarter.

感謝大家對我們公司的興趣並聆聽今天的演講。我們下個季度再見。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。