Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NOG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Northern Oil Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到北方石油第四季度和 2022 年年底收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Evelyn. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Evelyn Infurna。謝謝你，伊芙琳。請繼續。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Yesterday after the market closed, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022. You can access our earnings release and presentation on our Investor Relations website and our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC within a few days.

謝謝你，保羅。早上好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。昨天收市後，我們發布了第四季度和 2022 財年的財務業績。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和演示文稿，我們的 10-K 表格將在幾天內提交給美國證券交易委員會。

I'm joined here this morning by NOG’s Chief Executive Officer, Nick O'Grady; our President, Adam Dirlam; and our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen; and our EVP and Chief Engineer, Jim Evans. Our agenda for today's call is as follows: Nick will provide his remarks on the quarter and on our recent accomplishments, and Adam will discuss an overview of operations, and Chad will review our fourth quarter financials and walk through our 2023 guidance.

NOG 的首席執行官 Nick O'Grady 今天早上和我一起來到這裡；我們的總裁 Adam Dirlam；以及我們的首席財務官 Chad Allen；以及我們的執行副總裁兼總工程師 Jim Evans。我們今天電話會議的議程如下：Nick 將就本季度和我們最近的成就發表評論，Adam 將討論運營概況，Chad 將審查我們第四季度的財務狀況並介紹我們的 2023 年指導方針。

After our prepared remarks, the executive team will be available to answer any questions. Before we go any further, let me cover our safe harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

在我們準備好的評論之後，執行團隊將可以回答任何問題。在我們繼續之前，讓我談談我們的避風港語言。請注意，我們今天的評論，包括對您問題的回答，可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that we've discussed in our earnings release as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中預期的預期存在重大差異。這些風險包括，除其他外，我們在我們的收益發布以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論的事項，包括我們關於 10-K 表格的年度報告和我們關於 10-Q 表格的季度報告。我們不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入和自由現金流。這些措施與最接近的 GAAP 措施的調節可以在我們的收益發布中找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給尼克。

Thank you, Evelyn. I'd like to take a few moments to welcome Evelyn to the NOG team. Evelyn comes to NOG with tremendous amounts of capital markets and investor relations experience, and we're excited to have her on board.

謝謝你，伊芙琳。我想花點時間歡迎 Evelyn 加入 NOG 團隊。 Evelyn 帶著豐富的資本市場和投資者關係經驗來到 NOG，我們很高興她能加入。

All right, I'll get down to it with 5 key points. Number one, business fundamentals are strong. We delivered strong results in the fourth quarter and the full year. Despite lower commodity prices and severe weather, we generated approximately $90 million of cash in the fourth quarter and still were within our annual production guidance. As we enter Q1, the business is back online and building momentum driven by strong turn-in-line activity in December.

好吧，我會用5個關鍵點來說明它。第一，業務基礎強勁。我們在第四季度和全年取得了強勁的業績。儘管大宗商品價格下跌且天氣惡劣，我們在第四季度仍產生了約 9000 萬美元的現金，並且仍在我們的年度生產指導範圍內。當我們進入第一季度時，業務重新上線並在 12 月強勁的上線活動的推動下建立勢頭。

Number two, growth. The fourth quarter was incredibly busy for the company. We closed on 3 Permian acquisitions and in the first week of January, we closed on our Midland Petro transaction. In total, these represented over $750 million of closings and over $900 million in acquisitions announced in 2022, which should translate into more than 20% growth in our year-over-year production on a reduced diluted share count. This is following roughly 40% growth in 2022, all the more impressive given we are in a low growth era for most public energy companies.

第二，成長。第四季度對公司來說異常忙碌。我們完成了 3 次 Permian 收購，並在 1 月的第一周完成了 Midland Petro 交易。總的來說，這些代表了 2022 年宣布的超過 7.5 億美元的關閉和超過 9 億美元的收購，這應該轉化為我們在減少攤薄股份數量的情況下同比增長 20% 以上。這是繼 2022 年約 40% 的增長之後，考慮到我們正處於大多數上市能源公司的低增長時代，這一數字更加令人印象深刻。

As the largest, best-capitalized non-operator with superior data insight and an unmatched track record, we are proud to be the preferred partner to the public and private upstream community. NOG's differentiated positioning sets the stage for significant relative and absolute outperformance in 2023. We have transformed the company by diversifying and growing our footprint, enhancing the quality of our portfolio and meaningfully improving the strength of our balance sheet.

作為最大、資本最充足的非運營商，擁有卓越的數據洞察力和無與倫比的業績記錄，我們很自豪能成為公共和私營上游社區的首選合作夥伴。 NOG 的差異化定位為 2023 年取得顯著的相對和絕對優異表現奠定了基礎。我們通過多元化和擴大我們的足跡、提高我們的投資組合質量以及顯著改善我們資產負債表的實力來改變公司。

Despite inflationary pressures and lower current commodity strips, we expect to generate significant cash flow and production growth in 2023. Our disciplined and efficient transaction underwriting, prudent and sophisticated capital formation and superior data insights have driven, and we expect will continue to drive consistent multiyear equity outperformance.

儘管存在通脹壓力和當前商品條帶走低，但我們預計 2023 年將產生顯著的現金流和產量增長。我們有紀律和高效的交易承銷、審慎和成熟的資本形成以及卓越的數據洞察力推動，我們預計將繼續推動持續的多年股票跑贏大盤。

Number three, the 2023 outlook. Our 2023 guidance, which Chad will delve into later reflects capital efficient growth, conservative cost inflation assumptions and as I just mentioned, significant and differentiated volume and cash flow growth throughout the year. At our new elevated level of baseline production, we expect to generate significant levels of free cash flow in 2023. As the Midland Petro project reaches completion, it sets the stage for a substantial increase in free cash flow in the coming years, enabling us to further accelerate the company's growth and enhance shareholder returns.

第三，2023 年展望。我們的 2023 年指引（乍得稍後將深入研究）反映了資本效率增長、保守的成本通脹假設，以及正如我剛才提到的，全年顯著和差異化的數量和現金流增長。根據我們新提高的基準生產水平，我們預計將在 2023 年產生顯著水平的自由現金流。隨著 Midland Petro 項目的完工，它為未來幾年自由現金流的大幅增加奠定了基礎，使我們能夠進一步加速公司的發展並提高股東回報。

Number four, competitive advantage. We believe our competitive advantage has expanded in 2022. Over the last 4 years, we've not only rebuilt our infrastructure, augmented the financial strength and improved the asset positions of the company but have also invested in data science to continuously improve our technical analysis. With the launch of our purpose-built AI-powered system in January, we expect to further enhance the power of our proprietary data and the accuracy and efficiency of our decision-making.

第四，競爭優勢。我們相信我們的競爭優勢會在 2022 年擴大。在過去的 4 年裡，我們不僅重建了基礎設施、增強了財務實力並改善了公司的資產狀況，而且還投資於數據科學以不斷改進我們的技術分析.隨著 1 月份我們專門構建的人工智能係統的推出，我們希望進一步增強我們專有數據的力量以及我們決策的準確性和效率。

More specifically, we believe our enhanced analytics will enable us to efficiently find differentiated value in properties to further enhance our risk management tools. Our team does not rest on its lolls and we believe we are unmatched in the non-operated sphere, given our scale, data analytics and underwriting advantages. We believe that few can compete with us for the high-quality properties that we target daily, and our scale allows us to play in a field largely on our own. As the breadth of opportunities has expanded for us both from a basin and structural basis, our competitive advantage has only widened.

更具體地說，我們相信我們增強的分析能力將使我們能夠有效地發現資產的差異化價值，從而進一步增強我們的風險管理工具。鑑於我們的規模、數據分析和承保優勢，我們的團隊不會休息，我們相信我們在非運營領域是無與倫比的。我們相信，很少有人能與我們競爭我們每天瞄準的優質物業，而且我們的規模使我們能夠在很大程度上依靠自己的力量在一個領域發揮作用。隨著我們在流域和結構基礎上的機會範圍擴大，我們的競爭優勢只會擴大。

Number five, shareholder returns. Our goal is to provide our shareholders with the highest possible total return over the long term. We have implemented a multipronged approach, including share repurchase programs, repurchasing high-cost debt and increasing the cash dividends for our common shareholders. During the fourth quarter, we continued to tactically repurchase our common stock and senior notes. As market opportunities allow, we will continue opportunistic common buybacks and debt repurchases throughout 2023 and beyond.

第五，股東回報。我們的目標是為我們的股東提供盡可能高的長期總回報。我們實施了多管齊下的方法，包括股票回購計劃、回購高成本債務和增加普通股股東的現金股息。在第四季度，我們繼續在戰術上回購我們的普通股和優先票據。在市場機會允許的情況下，我們將在 2023 年及以後繼續機會主義的共同回購和債務回購。

A few weeks ago, we announced a 13% increase in our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.34 per share for the first quarter and introduced a plan to accelerate the dividend further to our target of $0.37 per share, about 2 quarters ahead of schedule. We continue to have the goal of providing an attractive yield for our investors. We strongly believe that the consistency of a stable and growing quarterly dividend is more valuable to our shareholders and our equity value over the long term.

幾週前，我們宣布將第一季度的季度普通股股息增加 13% 至每股 0.34 美元，並推出了一項計劃，將股息進一步加速至我們每股 0.37 美元的目標，比計劃提前約兩個季度。我們的目標仍然是為我們的投資者提供有吸引力的收益。我們堅信，穩定且不斷增長的季度股息的一致性對我們的股東和我們的長期股權價值更有價值。

Our [Goldilock] strategy should give us the ability to both pay healthy, growing current income to our shareholders and also allow for our significant excess retained cash flow to provide for value-added bolt-on acquisitions and growth opportunities. Going forward, we remain focused on driving the highest total return to shareholders, focusing on optimal yield, tax and capital efficiency and management of our overall leverage levels. The good news is with the business positioned for strength, we anticipate being able to deliver continued growth to our returns while still leaving room for flexibility and the ability to scale the business responsibly over time.

我們的 [Goldilock] 戰略應該使我們能夠向我們的股東支付健康的、不斷增長的當前收入，並允許我們保留大量過剩的現金流，以提供增值的補強收購和增長機會。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於為股東帶來最高的總回報，專注於優化收益率、稅收和資本效率以及我們整體槓桿水平的管理。好消息是業務定位強大，我們預計能夠為我們的回報帶來持續增長，同時仍然留有靈活性空間和隨著時間的推移負責任地擴展業務的能力。

2022 was another evolutionary leap forward for NOG, and I want to recognize the NOG team from top to bottom for their hard work and dedication to all we've accomplished. In closing, I'll remind you, as I always do, that we are a company run by investors for investors, and I want to thank you all for taking the time to listen to us today.

2022 年是 NOG 的又一次進化飛躍，我想對 NOG 團隊自上而下的辛勤工作和對我們所取得的成就的奉獻表示認可。最後，我會一如既往地提醒大家，我們是一家由投資者為投資者運營的公司，我要感謝大家今天抽出時間來聽我們講話。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Adam.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給亞當。

Thanks, Nick. On both the operational and business development fronts, we finished off another transformational year and look to continue our growth trajectory into '23. In the fourth quarter, turn-in-lines beat our internal forecast as we added nearly 20 net wells and completions returned to a relatively balanced mix as the Williston and Permian accounted for a 60-40 split. While initial production results were outperforming internal estimates, winter weather in December impacted production by approximately 10,000 barrels a day.

謝謝，尼克。在運營和業務發展方面，我們完成了又一個轉型年，並希望將我們的增長軌跡延續到 23 年。在第四季度，由於我們增加了近 20 口淨油井，並且由於 Williston 和 Permian 佔 60-40 的比例，完井量恢復到相對平衡的組合，轉入線超過了我們的內部預測。雖然最初的生產結果好於內部估計，但 12 月的冬季天氣影響了每天約 10,000 桶的產量。

As normal operations return, we expect to receive much of the benefit of our fourth quarter adds moving into the first quarter. Looking further ahead, we anticipate a typical turn-in-line schedule with spuds front-end loaded and completions weighted toward the back half of the year. Given the pull forward in well completions during the back half of '22, our wells in process finished the year totaling 55.4 net wells, with the Williston accounting for roughly 80% of our WIPs excluding our Marcellus DUCs.

隨著正常運營的恢復，我們預計將獲得第四季度的大部分收益並進入第一季度。展望未來，我們預計會有一個典型的交線時間表，即前端裝載和完工集中在今年下半年。鑑於 22 年下半年完井的進展，我們在建油井全年共完成 55.4 口淨油井，Williston 約占我們 WIP 的 80%，不包括我們的 Marcellus DUC。

That said, we added 6.8 net wells in process with the closing of our Mascot project in January. And accordingly, we now expect new drilling activity levels to be equally weighted across the Permian and Williston for 2023. In the Marcellus, we have deferred most activity to 2024 as we focus on higher-margin oil properties, but continue to look for ways through acreage trades and other means to potentially add exposure in the back half of the year.

也就是說，隨著 1 月份 Mascot 項目的結束，我們增加了 6.8 口正在處理的淨井。因此，我們現在預計 2023 年新的鑽井活動水平將在二疊紀和威利斯頓地區同等重要。在馬塞勒斯，我們將大部分活動推遲到 2024 年，因為我們專注於利潤率較高的石油資產，但繼續尋找方法通過種植面積交易和其他方式可能會在今年下半年增加風險敞口。

Q4 well proposals on our organic acreage remained healthy as we received over 125 AFEs during the quarter, which accounted for roughly 10 net wells. The combination of our operators staying disciplined and our acquisitions focused on the core of our respective basins, led to a consent rate of approximately 95%. Economics also continued to improve as we saw estimated IRRs increase by over 25% relative to our Q3 well proposals.

我們在本季度收到了超過 125 個 AFE，約佔 10 個淨井，因此關於我們有機種植面積的第 4 季度鑽井建議保持健康。我們的運營商保持紀律，我們的收購集中在我們各自盆地的核心，導致同意率約為 95%。經濟性也繼續改善，因為我們看到估計的 IRR 相對於我們第三季度的油井提案增加了 25% 以上。

As we think about well costs going forward, it has been encouraging to see a deceleration in inflation, which broadly aligns with the conversations that we've had with our operators. We do expect and have seen some creep from some of our lowest cost operators in the Williston as long-dated service contracts roll off. This has been offset by a steadier state in the Permian, which has kept our overall AFE inflation modest. We anticipate those minimal increases from leading-edge indicators at year-end to carry over into 2023, which results in an estimated 7.5% inflationary increase at the midpoint.

當我們考慮未來的油井成本時，看到通貨膨脹減速一直令人鼓舞，這與我們與運營商的對話大體一致。隨著長期服務合同的取消，我們確實預計並且已經看到我們在威利斯頓的一些成本最低的運營商出現了一些變化。這已被二疊紀的穩定狀態所抵消，這使我們的整體 AFE 通脹保持適度。我們預計年底時前沿指標的這些微小增長將延續到 2023 年，這將導致通貨膨脹率在中點估計增加 7.5%。

As Nick alluded to earlier, the fourth quarter was extremely busy for the business development team as we work to close some of the most impactful acquisitions in company history. The $750 million of M&A completed in Q4 and Q1 has deepened our exposure to top-tier inventory with the addition of approximately 8,000 net acres in the Permian.

正如尼克早些時候提到的那樣，第四季度業務開發團隊非常忙碌，因為我們正在努力完成公司歷史上一些最具影響力的收購。第四季度和第一季度完成的 7.5 億美元併購加深了我們對頂級庫存的敞口，在二疊紀增加了約 8,000 英畝的淨土地。

Overall, our 2022 closed acquisitions and ground game activity added approximately 125 high-quality, low breakeven net future locations to our inventory and 15% to our proven reserves, which increased to an estimated net 330 million barrels of oil equivalent. Note that our year-end reserves exclude the impact of the recently closed Midland Petro acquisition.

總體而言，我們在 2022 年完成的收購和地面遊戲活動為我們的庫存增加了大約 125 個高質量、低盈虧平衡的未來淨地點，並為我們的探明儲量增加了 15%，估計淨儲量增加到 3.3 億桶石油當量。請注意，我們的年終儲備不包括最近完成的 Midland Petro 收購的影響。

Midland Petro represents an important evolution in our M&A strategy. The transaction showcased Northern's scale and ability to provide creative capital solutions for our operating partners, while generating best-in-class returns. On the heels of our announced joint development agreement, we have been approached by multiple operators trying to find solutions for existing assets and desired development plans as well as partnership opportunities to co-bid and acquire operated assets.

Midland Petro 代表了我們併購戰略的重要演變。該交易展示了 Northern 為我們的運營合作夥伴提供創造性資本解決方案的規模和能力，同時產生了一流的回報。在我們宣布聯合開發協議之後，多家運營商與我們接洽，試圖為現有資產和所需的開發計劃尋找解決方案，以及共同競標和收購運營資產的合作機會。

Not only are we one of the few non-operators with scale and a balance sheet to help move the needle pursuing large-scale acquisitions, we also have the data insights to underwrite with conviction and participate alongside our operators as a load maintenance partner. These competitive advantages have established NOG as a partner of choice in pursuing operated assets and at the same time, broaden the opportunity set available to us.

我們不僅是為數不多的具有規模和資產負債表以幫助推進大規模收購的非運營商之一，而且我們還擁有數據洞察力，可以堅定地承保並作為負載維護合作夥伴與我們的運營商一起參與。這些競爭優勢使 NOG 成為尋求運營資產的首選合作夥伴，同時拓寬了我們可用的機會集。

As we move into 2023, the M&A backlog is spooling, and we are reviewing more than $5 billion in non-operated packages, operated packages and joint development opportunities. While there are more prospects than ever available to us, our colors have not changed. We remain laser-focused on our consistent approach to capital allocation and our ground game. In the fourth quarter, we closed on 1.2 net wells and 127 net acres, finishing our 2022 ground game efforts, acquiring 8.7 net wells and over 1,400 net acres across 24 transactions.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，併購積壓工作正在處理中，我們正在審查超過 50 億美元的非運營包、運營包和聯合開發機會。雖然我們的前景比以往任何時候都多，但我們的顏色沒有改變。我們仍然專注於我們一貫的資本配置方法和我們的地面遊戲。第四季度，我們關閉了 1.2 口淨井和 127 英畝土地，完成了我們 2022 年的地面遊戲工作，在 24 筆交易中獲得了 8.7 口淨井和超過 1,400 英畝的淨土地。

As we look ahead to 2023, we are seeing a variety of compelling opportunities across our respective basins, and we will actively manage the portfolio in order to build on an already high-graded drilling program and maintain our superior return on capital employed.

展望 2023 年，我們在各自的盆地看到了各種引人注目的機會，我們將積極管理投資組合，以在已經高品位的鑽探項目的基礎上繼續發展，並保持我們卓越的資本回報率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chad.

有了這個，我會把它交給乍得。

Thanks, Adam. I'll start by reviewing key fourth quarter results, which were solid across the board despite the impact of the recent winter storms. Our Q4 average daily production was 78,854 BOE per day, a 23% increase compared to Q4 of 2021. Oil volumes were up 4% sequentially over Q3 and have normalized after the winter storms. Our adjusted EBITDA was $264.8 million in Q4 and topped $1 billion for the year, a record for our company. Our fourth quarter free cash flow was robust at $87 million despite growing activity, and we generated almost $460 million of free cash flow in 2022, which is more than double the prior year.

謝謝，亞當。我將首先回顧第四季度的關鍵業績，儘管受到最近冬季風暴的影響，但這些業績全面穩健。我們第四季度的平均日產量為每天 78,854 桶油當量，比 2021 年第四季度增長 23%。石油產量比第三季度環比增長 4%，並在冬季風暴過後恢復正常。我們調整後的 EBITDA 在第四季度為 2.648 億美元，全年超過 10 億美元，創下了我們公司的記錄。儘管活動不斷增加，我們第四季度的自由現金流仍然強勁，達到 8700 萬美元，並且我們在 2022 年產生了近 4.6 億美元的自由現金流，是上一年的兩倍多。

Our adjusted EPS was $1.43 per share in Q4, up roughly 35% year-over-year. Oil differentials were again better than internally expected in Q4 and came in at $2.42 per barrel due to continued strong in-basin pricing and having more barrels weighted towards the Permian, which are typically priced tighter. For the year, our differentials were $2.73 off WTI, a record low for the company driven by improvements in North Dakota and the diversification of our business over the last several years.

我們調整後的第四季度每股收益為 1.43 美元，同比增長約 35%。由於盆地內價格持續走強以及更多桶傾向於二疊紀（通常定價更緊），第四季度石油價差再次好於內部預期，達到每桶 2.42 美元。今年，我們的價差與 WTI 相差 2.73 美元，這是受北達科他州改善和過去幾年我們業務多元化推動的公司歷史最低點。

Natural gas differentials were 92% of benchmark prices for the fourth quarter, lower sequentially but better than our internal expectations. Lower natural gas and NGL prices drove the reduction, a function of lower gathering cost absorption and lower NGL uplift. For the year, they averaged 113% of NYMEX. On the CapEx front, we invested $142.9 million during the quarter, evenly split between the Williston and Permian basins. Activity has been robust. As Adam mentioned, Q4 turn lines were up dramatically from the third quarter and provide strong momentum as we enter 2023.

第四季度天然氣價差為基準價格的 92%，環比下降但好於我們的內部預期。較低的天然氣和 NGL 價格推動了減少，這是由於較低的收集成本吸收和較低的 NGL 提升。今年，他們平均佔 NYMEX 的 113%。在資本支出方面，我們在本季度投資了 1.429 億美元，平均分配給威利斯頓盆地和二疊紀盆地。活動一直很活躍。正如亞當所提到的，第四季度的轉折線比第三季度大幅上升，並在我們進入 2023 年時提供強勁勢頭。

This has resulted in a DMC list of 62.2 net wells inclusive of the Mascot project and has contributed to the pull forward of our capital spending, along with the continued success of our high-return ground game investments. The balance sheet remains strong. We closed a $500 million convertible notes offering in the fourth quarter to fund in part our recent acquisitions. As you may recall, due to the features we selected, there will be minimal to potentially 0 dilution to our existing holders. And to the extent there is, the company has options to manage this over time.

這導致了包括 Mascot 項目在內的 62.2 口淨井的 DMC 清單，並有助於推動我們的資本支出，以及我們高回報地面遊戲投資的持續成功。資產負債表依然強勁。我們在第四季度完成了 5 億美元的可轉換票據發行，以部分資助我們最近的收購。您可能還記得，由於我們選擇的功能，對我們現有持有人的稀釋將極少甚至可能為 0。在某種程度上，公司可以選擇隨著時間的推移來管理它。

In addition to the convertible notes offering, we were able to expand the capacity of our revolving credit facility to $1 billion from $850 million, reflecting the growth in our borrowing base to $1.6 billion from $1.3 billion. As a result of our M&A activity, we flexed our balance sheet for the announced transactions in the fourth quarter, and our leverage will be modestly higher over the next couple of quarters but well within our comfort zone. Our net leverage ratio should return to normal levels by the end of 2023 as our acquisitions contribute to our operations and we're able to organically [delever].

除了發行可轉換票據外，我們還能夠將循環信貸額度從 8.5 億美元擴大到 10 億美元，反映出我們的借款基數從 13 億美元增加到 16 億美元。由於我們的併購活動，我們在第四季度調整了已宣布交易的資產負債表，我們的槓桿率在接下來的幾個季度將略有上升，但仍處於我們的舒適範圍內。到 2023 年底，我們的淨槓桿率應該會恢復到正常水平，因為我們的收購有助於我們的運營，而且我們能夠有機地 [delever]。

Liquidity remained strong. We still have over $1 billion of dry powder in the form of unused revolver and borrowing base capacity. In 2022, we retired $25.8 million of our 2028 notes, and we'll continue to look for ways to efficiently reduce leverage if market opportunity arises. With respect to hedging since our last report, we opportunistically added volumes in the form of attractive costless collars that provide downside protection with the optionality of participating in the upside of prices rally. We continue to hedge volumes from each closed and pending acquisition based on our conservative hedging strategy of 55% to 65% of expected production on a rolling 18-month basis.

流動性依然強勁。我們仍有超過 10 億美元的干火藥，以未使用的左輪手槍和借用基地能力的形式存在。 2022 年，我們收回了 2580 萬美元的 2028 年票據，如果市場機會出現，我們將繼續尋找有效降低杠桿率的方法。關於自我們上一份報告以來的對沖，我們以有吸引力的無成本領子的形式機會主義地增加了交易量，這些領子提供了下行保護，並可以選擇參與價格上漲的上行。我們繼續根據我們在 18 個月滾動基礎上預期產量的 55% 至 65% 的保守對沖策略，對每次已完成和待定收購的交易量進行對沖。

As it pertains to our 2023 guidance, with our run rate CapEx from 2022 of approximately $500 million largely carrying over, capital plans from our 2022 acquisitions of approximately $220 million layered in and $25 million to $50 million of service cost inflation. This translates to a range of $737 million to $778 million total CapEx guidance for 2023. From a (inaudible) perspective, we expect approximately 60% of our annual spend will occur in the first half of the year.

由於它與我們的 2023 年指導方針有關，我們從 2022 年開始的運行率資本支出約為 5 億美元，大部分結轉，我們 2022 年收購的資本計劃約為 2.2 億美元，以及 2500 萬至 5000 萬美元的服務成本通脹。這意味著 2023 年的資本支出總額指導範圍為 7.37 億美元至 7.78 億美元。從（聽不清）的角度來看，我們預計我們年度支出的大約 60% 將發生在今年上半年。

I want to point out that only approximately $25 million to $60 million that is specifically associated with the build-out of our Mascot project is expected to reoccur in 2024. We do expect to see continued inflation in the first half of 2023, but the decline in natural gas prices and subsequently what appears to be the beginning of a reduction in overall rig count, which is down approximately 25% from the peak in the United States could lead to cost savings in 6 to 9 months if the current trend stays in place.

我想指出，只有大約 2500 萬到 6000 萬美元與我們的 Mascot 項目的擴建特別相關，預計在 2024 年會再次出現。我們確實預計 2023 年上半年會出現持續的通貨膨脹，但下降天然氣價格下降，隨後似乎開始減少總鑽機數量（從美國的峰值下降約 25%），如果當前趨勢保持不變，可能會在 6 至 9 個月內節省成本.

Additionally, we've seen debottlenecking in sand tubulars and added pressure pumping capacity, all green shoots towards stabilization or reduction in costs as the year progresses. Regarding our 2023 production guidance, we expect to start the year at a range of 84,000 to 86,000 BOE per day in Q1, improving each quarter with a target fourth quarter exit rate of 96,000 to 100,000 BOE per day.

此外，我們已經看到砂管的瓶頸消除和壓力泵送能力的增加，隨著時間的推移，所有的綠芽都朝著穩定或降低成本的方向發展。關於我們的 2023 年生產指導，我們預計今年第一季度的產量將在每天 84,000 至 86,000 桶油當量的範圍內，每個季度都會有所改善，目標是第四季度的退出率達到每天 96,000 至 100,000 桶油當量。

Overall, the quarterly production should translate to an average range of 91,000 to 96,000 BOE per day for the full year. With respect to the first quarter, we typically see seasonal organic declines and accordingly guide conservative given the end of winter in the Williston. However, we do expect strong activity throughout the year to drive that higher exit.

總體而言，季度產量應轉化為全年平均每天 91,000 至 96,000 桶油當量。關於第一季度，我們通常會看到季節性有機下降，因此考慮到 Williston 的冬季結束，我們會相應地引導保守派。然而，我們確實預計全年的強勁活動將推動更高的退出。

On differentials, we're taking a conservative view given the recent downtick in natural gas prices and typical volatility of in-basin oil pricing. We believe that there's room for improvement potentially as the year goes on. LOE and G&A should be largely consistent with 2022, adjusted for inflation and operating and public company costs. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

關於差異，鑑於近期天然氣價格下跌和流域內石油價格的典型波動，我們持保守觀點。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，可能會有改進的空間。 LOE 和 G&A 應與 2022 年基本一致，並根據通貨膨脹以及運營和上市公司成本進行調整。有了這個，我會把電話轉給接線員進行問答。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

We always leave room in our CapEx guidance for flex capital. So the ground game is in there, and that's so we can actively manage the portfolio throughout the year. Whether we use it or not, it depends on the (inaudible) proposals that come in the door, what their expected sputter sales times are and compare that to the ground game opportunities that we're seeing day in, day out. So meaning we really weight the returns against one another. And so, we may have the opportunity to high-grade our drilling program and modify it and we'll definitely take advantage if we do.

我們總是在靈活資本的資本支出指南中留有空間。所以地面遊戲就在那裡，這樣我們就可以全年積極管理投資組合。無論我們是否使用它，這取決於進來的（聽不清）提案，他們預期的銷售時間是多少，並將其與我們日復一日看到的地面遊戲機會進行比較。因此，這意味著我們真正權衡了回報。因此，我們可能有機會升級我們的鑽井計劃並對其進行修改，如果我們這樣做，我們肯定會利用。

I'd say, like any other year, it will depend on what we're able to get done and if there are compelling opportunities to flex forward through the ground game. But again, as I'd reiterate, we budget a pretty hefty amount in our base budget every year for that amount.

我想說的是，和其他任何一年一樣，這將取決於我們能夠完成什麼，以及是否有令人信服的機會在地面比賽中向前邁進。但是，正如我要重申的那樣，我們每年都會在基本預算中為該數額預算相當大的數額。

And then just second, really on Bakken activity. I'm just basically wondering maybe for Adam, how stable, more recently, have most of your operating plans have become and if you're are receiving what I'd call more or less proposals than a year ago? I asked that because obviously, one of the gas is getting -- gas guys are becoming very volatile and some other plans are volatile. I'm just wondering if you're seeing a bit more stability in maybe Bakken versus Permian and just wondering how the proposals have become more recently.

然後僅次於 Bakken 活動。我只是想知道，對於亞當來說，最近您的大部分運營計劃變得有多穩定，以及您是否收到了我所說的比一年前更多或更少的建議？我之所以這麼問，是因為很明顯，其中一種氣體正在變得越來越多——氣體人員變得非常不穩定，而其他一些計劃也變得不穩定。我只是想知道你是否看到 Bakken 與 Permian 相比更加穩定，並且只是想知道這些提案是如何變得最近的。

And I think in the fourth quarter 125-plus AFEs, we received about 100 of those were in the Williston. And so looking at the end of the year, if we're looking at our oily basin, kind of makeup, that's about 80% of kind of the wells that are in process right now. And so we see that kind of pumping along to continue to add rigs and the operator makeup is certainly compelling as well when we're partnering with the likes of Ovintiv and Continental and Conoco. So we've been encouraged by the activity phase.

我認為在第四季度，我們收到了 125 多個 AFE，其中大約有 100 個在 Williston。所以看看今年年底，如果我們看看我們的油盆地，有點化妝，那是目前正在處理的大約 80% 的油井。因此，當我們與 Ovintiv、Continental 和 Conoco 等公司合作時，我們看到這種繼續增加鑽井平台和運營商構成的動力當然也很有吸引力。因此，我們對活動階段感到鼓舞。

And I would say, Neal, based on our guidance that we put forth today, or whether or not the Williston Basin grows as a whole or not, I would probably say it probably remains pretty stable. We're going to have record volumes in the Williston by a big measure this year.

我會說，尼爾，根據我們今天提出的指導，或者威利斯頓盆地是否作為一個整體增長，我可能會說它可能會保持相當穩定。今年，威利斯頓的銷量將大大創下歷史新高。

And I think it's a function of the working interest and the concentration with some of our operators. We've got significantly larger working interest that we're stepping into here at the beginning of the year.

我認為這是我們一些操作員的工作興趣和注意力的函數。今年年初，我們已經有了更大的工作興趣。

Our next question is from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

I think one maybe underappreciated factor is this new AI system that you all have, and it sounds like going to be coming -- going more full bore on it now. Can you just give us some context on what do you think this does to your pace? And maybe -- I don't know if it's the right way to say but quality of sort of your ground game and your potential acquisition activity. Where do you see upside? Like when you do back looks at what you did versus what you know now with the system, what have you made a change in are strategic advantages to having this in place?

我認為一個可能被低估的因素是你們都擁有的這個新的 AI 系統，它聽起來即將到來——現在會更加全面。你能給我們一些你認為這對你的步伐有什麼影響的背景嗎？也許——我不知道這是否是正確的說法，但你的地面遊戲質量和你潛在的收購活動。你在哪裡看到上行空間？就像當你回頭看看你所做的與你現在對系統的了解時，你做了什麼改變是擁有這個到位的戰略優勢？

From a strategic standpoint, especially if we branched out into multiple different basins, the volume of opportunities coming at us is at an all-time high. And so we've got to be able to prosecute these evaluations and do it with conviction. And when you've got the volatility that you have from a commodity standpoint as well as the inflationary pressures that ebb and flow, the fact that we've got north of 100-plus operators, all that information needs to be socialized and it needs to be done quickly in order for us to truly high grade and allocate capital appropriately.

從戰略的角度來看，特別是如果我們將業務擴展到多個不同的盆地，我們面臨的機會數量將達到歷史最高水平。因此，我們必須能夠執行這些評估並堅定地進行。當你從大宗商品的角度獲得波動性以及起伏不定的通脹壓力時，事實上我們有超過 100 家運營商，所有這些信息都需要社會化，它需要盡快完成，以便我們真正提高評級並適當分配資金。

And so by instituting the AI program, we're able to take that real-time data and truly furnish all of the information that we have coming through the jibs and the revenue checks as well as all the public data and do that with one source of truth. And so that's going to be the key to our success as well as taking the look backs on the various transactions. I think we did one just recently in terms of kind of the recent major acquisitions, and I think we were within about 2% to 3% of original underwriting.

因此，通過實施 AI 程序，我們能夠獲取實時數據並真正提供我們通過三角帆和收入檢查獲得的所有信息以及所有公共數據，並通過一個來源來做到這一點的真相。因此，這將是我們成功的關鍵，也是回顧各種交易的關鍵。我認為我們最近就最近的重大收購進行了一次收購，我認為我們在原始承保的 2% 到 3% 之內。

And the only color I would add to that is you got 9,000 gross wellbores at this point in the business. And the database has always been massive. It's always been the secret to our success, right, being in half of every Williston well drilled means you have full board of knowledge, but the speed of which you can access that data and harness it can take minutes now what would take our engineering team a week to come through in the past.

我要添加的唯一顏色是您在業務的這一點上有 9,000 個總井眼。而且數據庫一直都很龐大。這一直是我們成功的秘訣，對吧，在每口 Williston 鑽井中都有一半意味著你擁有全面的知識，但是你訪問這些數據和利用它的速度現在可能需要幾分鐘，而現在我們的工程團隊需要什麼一個星期就過去了。

And so my next question is if you could be patient with you a second because there's a couple of pieces to it. But like if I think about where natural gas prices are today, and obviously, the entrance you all made into Appalachia, the first thing that stands out to me is if I look back, when you guys announced that acquisition, gas prices were about 250 and then they went to 910 and now back to 250. So early, they're kind of back to where it was when you made that acquisition.

所以我的下一個問題是你是否可以耐心等待一秒鐘，因為它有幾個部分。但是，如果我想一想今天的天然氣價格，顯然，你們進入阿巴拉契亞的入口，對我來說最突出的是，如果我回頭看，當你們宣布收購時，天然氣價格約為 250然後他們去了 910，現在又回到了 250。這麼早，他們有點回到你進行收購時的狀態。

Do you think -- 2 things on it. Do you think that this environment does it make it more ripe for opportunities on new gas plays from a competitive sort of ability to make an acquisition? And number two, when you do your look back at the Marcellus deal you did, do you like the returns on economics? I mean there definitely was a step down in production versus where you originally expected. But do you think the (inaudible) return still justified that move?

你認為 - 上面有 2 件事。您是否認為這種環境是否使通過具有競爭力的收購能力獲得新天然氣業務的機會變得更加成熟？第二，當你回顧你所做的 Marcellus 交易時，你喜歡經濟回報嗎？我的意思是，與您最初預期的相比，生產肯定有所下降。但你認為（聽不清）回報仍然證明這一舉措是合理的嗎？

Yes. So I mean, to the latter point, Scott, that transaction, even net of all of the hedging we did paid out in 1 year, meaning we got all our money back in 1 year of owning it, and it has 20 years of inventory on it. So the pace at which it goes, I would say the pace has been slightly slower than we thought. But at the same time, the cost structure and well performance has been 20% or 30% better than what we underwrote. So net-net, we've done a lot better.

是的。所以我的意思是，對於後一點，斯科特，那筆交易，甚至扣除了我們在 1 年內支付的所有對沖，這意味著我們在擁有它的 1 年內收回了所有的錢，而且它有 20 年的庫存在上面。所以它前進的速度，我想說速度比我們想像的要慢一些。但與此同時，成本結構和業績表現比我們承保的要好 20% 或 30%。所以 net-net，我們做得好多了。

And so we're thrilled to have it. It is truly a call option. We're also thrilled that we're not developing it this year that, that development really is in 2024. And that's really important to us because I don't -- while it is economic today, I don't really think we want to develop our gas properties at $2 gas -- but going back to the more -- the larger M&A question, I said we are basin and fuel agnostic, but convexity of returns does matter.

所以我們很高興擁有它。這確實是一個看漲期權。我們也很高興我們今年沒有開發它，開發真的是在 2024 年。這對我們來說真的很重要，因為我不知道——雖然今天很經濟，但我真的不認為我們想要以 2 美元的天然氣開發我們的天然氣資產——但回到更多——更大的併購問題，我說過我們與盆地和燃料無關，但回報的凸性確實很重要。

For example, buying assets at $100 oil has a lot more risk even if you're hedging it versus buying it at $50. And buying gas last year was pretty unattractive to us on a risk-adjusted return because ultimately, there's a lot more that can go wrong then that could go right, and that goes back to when we bought the properties in early 2021. And so I would say, as it pertains to gas, it appears to us at current that the longer-term complexity on gas assets is very attractive and that would play a role and we're certainly actively looking at gas properties day and day out.

例如，以 100 美元的油價購買資產與以 50 美元的價格購買資產相比，即使您正在對沖它，也會面臨更大的風險。就風險調整後的回報率而言，去年購買汽油對我們來說非常沒有吸引力，因為最終，可能出錯的地方多於可能正確的地方，這可以追溯到我們在 2021 年初購買房產時。所以我會說，因為它與天然氣有關，目前在我們看來，天然氣資產的長期復雜性非常有吸引力，這將發揮作用，我們當然會日復一日地積極關注天然氣資產。

Our next question is from Philip Johnston with Capital One.

我們的下一個問題來自 Capital One 的 Philip Johnston。

A question for Chad. You mentioned the weak gas realizations that you're expecting for '23. That's pretty similar to what we saw yesterday from one of your Williston operators. You guys are obviously on a 2-stream report here and obviously, a big driver there is weak NGL prices. And I, of course, realize there's a fixed component that's coming into play relative to lower NYMEX prices. But I guess the 75% to 85% of NYMEX seems pretty low. So I'm just wondering if you can maybe give us a little more insight as to what the drivers are there? And what's different about this year versus last year in addition to lower NGL prices.

乍得的問題。您提到了您對 23 年預期的弱氣體實現。這與我們昨天從您的一位 Williston 操作員那裡看到的非常相似。你們顯然在這裡有一份 2 流報告，很明顯，NGL 價格疲軟是一個很大的推動因素。當然，我意識到與紐約商品交易所較低的價格相關的固定因素正在發揮作用。但我猜 NYMEX 的 75% 到 85% 似乎很低。所以我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們更深入地了解那裡的驅動程序是什麼？除了降低 NGL 價格之外，今年與去年有何不同。

I think what we're currently seeing right now is in -- we're probably down even below that. We're seeing some pickups from past months that kind of creeped us up to that 92%, but we're currently realizing at or below those, I guess, with respect to where we currently sit. I think some of the struggles in the Permian, obviously, with gas takeaway is going to also kind of creep into, I guess, 2023, and that's kind of where we're being a bit more conservative, I think, with respect to realizations of gas prices.

我認為我們目前所看到的是——我們可能甚至低於這個水平。我們看到過去幾個月的一些回升讓我們爬升到了 92%，但我想，就我們目前的位置而言，我們目前正在實現或低於這些水平。我認為二疊紀的一些鬥爭，很明顯，天然氣外賣也會蔓延到，我想，2023 年，我認為，就實現而言，這就是我們有點保守的地方的天然氣價格。

I mean, Philip, there's like -- it's kind of 4 dimensional chance, right? You have your fixed gathering cost getting it from wellhead to pipe, that doesn't move. But as the price of gas goes down, that becomes a larger percentage. And then you have the price of the NGL basket, which swings wildly because the actual yields from the plant changes depending on where the -- what the plants want to do, meaning whether ethane is economic or not to extract, and some people do it anyway. We'll leave them enable us, but some people do it whether it is or not.

我的意思是，菲利普，就像——這是一種 4 維的機會，對吧？從井口到管道，你有固定的收集成本，它不會移動。但隨著天然氣價格的下降，這個比例會變得更大。然後是 NGL 一籃子的價格，它的價格波動很大，因為工廠的實際產量會根據工廠想做什麼而變化，這意味著提取乙烷是否經濟，有些人會這樣做反正。我們會讓他們幫助我們，但有些人不管是否這樣做。

You get more volumes, obviously, but you then -- if you're a 3-stream reporter, but you're losing money. And I think the thing to think about though is that although NGL prices came down in the fourth quarter, gas prices really came down in the first quarter. And so actually, from a ratio perspective, the used propane and as an example, it was about 1.25:1 versus gas in the fourth quarter, but it's over 2 today. So that actually helps the percentage. And so really, the absolute price of the gas versus the NGL impact as much. And so we try to be really conservative because we're not -- we don't have a crystal ball here in terms of where natural gas is going. I wouldn't say we're internally particularly bullish. But we try to run it.

顯然，你獲得了更多的流量，但是你——如果你是一名 3 流記者，但你正在賠錢。我認為需要考慮的是，儘管第四季度 NGL 價格下降，但天然氣價格在第一季度確實下降了。因此，實際上，從比率的角度來看，使用過的丙烷，例如，第四季度與天然氣的比率約為 1.25：1，但今天超過 2。所以這實際上有助於提高百分比。實際上，天然氣的絕對價格與 NGL 的影響一樣大。因此，我們試圖真正保守，因為我們不是——就天然氣的去向而言，我們在這裡沒有水晶球。我不會說我們內部特別看好。但是我們嘗試運行它。

And if you look at our track record in the past, we've historically been very conservative in this because these are non-controllable costs that we don't really want -- there's no benefit to us by doing anything but taking a conservative run at it. But I do think there -- as Chad mentioned in his prepared comments, there are some -- there is some room for improvement throughout the year, and we'll update you according.

如果你看看我們過去的業績記錄，我們在這方面歷來非常保守，因為這些是我們真正不想要的不可控制的成本——除了採取保守的做法外，做任何事情對我們都沒有好處在它。但我確實認為——正如乍得在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣——全年都有一些改進的空間，我們會根據情況更新你。

On the reserve report, I'm just wondering if you can maybe share what your next 12-month PDP decline rate is for, I guess, for both oil and gas and perhaps how that's changed relative to where you were in the past couple of years. I'm assuming it's come down a little bit, but just looking for the approximate magnitude or so.

關於儲備報告，我只是想知道你是否可以分享下一個 12 個月的 PDP 下降率是什麼，我想，對於石油和天然氣來說，也許它相對於你在過去幾年的位置有何變化年。我假設它下降了一點，但只是在尋找大概的幅度。

So our base PDP decline is going to be in the low 30s, 32% to 34%. Obviously, as we go through the year and we start bringing on some of these acquisitions, the NPDC project, those sorts of things, our decline rate will increase throughout the year. So as we exit the year, we're probably going to be closer to mid-30s to high 30s in that kind of range, but that's kind of where we're starting out today.

所以我們的基本 PDP 下降將在 30 左右，32% 到 34%。顯然，隨著我們度過這一年，我們開始進行其中的一些收購，NPDC 項目，諸如此類的事情，我們的下降率將在全年增加。因此，當我們結束這一年時，我們可能會在這種範圍內接近 30 多歲到 30 多歲，但這就是我們今天開始的地方。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from John Abbott with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Abbott。

First question (inaudible). DD&A came in a little bit high for the fourth quarter with the merger closing. How do you think about an appropriate DD&A rate just sort of going forward?

第一個問題（聽不清）。隨著合併的結束，第四季度的 DD&A 略高。您如何看待未來適當的 DD&A 率？

Yes, John, we were just looking at that this morning. I think when we roll MPDC, I think we're sitting right around 150 for kind of exit DD&A. And I think NPDC will likely add 1 or 2 to it. So I think once we get that rolled in, it will probably be somewhere in the $11.50 to $12.50 range, I would guess.

是的，約翰，我們今天早上剛看過。我認為當我們推出 MPDC 時，我認為我們正坐在 150 左右，用於某種退出 DD&A。我認為 NPDC 可能會增加 1 或 2 個。所以我認為，一旦我們開始考慮，我猜它可能會在 11.50 美元到 12.50 美元的範圍內。

And then the second question is on the acquisitions that you just sort of -- you just closed on here. Anyway, you just got them in the door, any pleasant surprises, any changes in activity levels versus what you originally assumed?

然後第二個問題是關於你剛剛完成的收購——你剛剛在這裡結束。不管怎樣，你剛把他們帶到門口，有什麼驚喜，活動水平與你最初假設的有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. I mean I think maybe a few anecdotes to start first, like a small anecdote like our first Midland acquisition that we closed in October is performing exceptionally well. But we actually just did this look back this morning and in aggregate, we are ahead of schedule and the assets are performing really well. As a non-operator, you just have to say, like anything, this will change and pivot depending on the environment. But we underwrite conservatively and focus on good geology. And so they should be relatively resilient. And so ultimately, while drilling schedules move around here and there, I don't think we expect any major surprises in 2023.

是的。我的意思是，我想也許首先要講一些軼事，比如我們在 10 月份完成的第一次米德蘭收購這樣的小軼事表現得非常好。但實際上我們今天早上只是回顧了一下，總的來說，我們提前完成了，資產表現非常好。作為非操作員，您只需要說，就像任何事情一樣，這將根據環境而改變和調整。但我們保守地承保並專注於良好的地質情況。因此，它們應該具有相對的彈性。因此，最終，雖然鑽探計劃四處變動，但我認為我們預計 2023 年不會出現任何重大意外。

Our next question is from Donovan Schafer with Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

The first one I want to ask is I know it is definitely way too early to get specific at all on guidance or any type of an outlook for 2024, obviously. But I'm just wondering if you can talk about this at a much higher level, just broadly in terms of given the high level of M&A activity that you've had -- including this quarter in the preceding 4 quarters. Is there any kind of embedded growth in that, that you would expect to translate into 2024 in terms of the cadence you see rigs moving through that acreage?

我想問的第一個問題是，我知道現在就對 2024 年的指導或任何類型的展望做出具體說明肯定為時過早。但我只是想知道你是否可以在更高的層次上談論這個問題，只是廣泛地考慮到你所擁有的高水平的併購活動——包括前 4 個季度的本季度。是否有任何一種嵌入式增長，你希望根據你看到的鑽井平台在該面積上移動的節奏轉化為 2024 年？

I know maybe we assume -- if we assume something like an $80 oil price roughly, just when you're looking at all that acquisition activity that you did and you kind of hold things constant, do you see that as something leading to incremental growth in '24 over '23? Or would growth in '24 over '23 need some additional kind of proactive activity on your guys' part?

我知道也許我們假設——如果我們假設油價大約為 80 美元，當你查看你所做的所有收購活動並且你有點保持不變時，你是否認為這是導致增量增長的東西在 24 年超過 23 年？還是 24 歲以上 23 歲的成長需要你們球員的一些額外的主動活動？

Yes. I mean I think the simple say and way to say this and assuming, obviously, keeping costs constant for a second Donovan, if we spent the same levels of activity this year that we -- next year, we would certainly see growth. We do highlight this in our earnings presentation, but the effective roll off of some of the MVDC activity. And what we try to highlight is, obviously, the guidance is for 91,000 to 96,000 barrels a day, you're obviously going to exceed that at some point as that project completes.

是的。我的意思是，我認為簡單的說法和方式，假設，顯然，第二個多諾萬的成本保持不變，如果我們今年花費與明年相同的活動水平，我們肯定會看到增長。我們確實在我們的收益報告中強調了這一點，但一些 MVDC 活動的有效推出。我們試圖強調的是，很明顯，指導是每天 91,000 到 96,000 桶，隨著該項目的完成，你顯然會在某個時候超過這個數量。

And as Jim pointed out earlier, your decline rate is going to be a little bit higher as you kind of reach that [Xenith]. You need about 70 net wells a year to kind of hold above 90,000 barrels a day flat and probably grow it a little bit from that base over time. And so you're talking about $600 million to $700 million of sort of sustaining capital underneath at those levels. But obviously, our guidance is more like $750-ish this year. So if you continue at those levels you're going to grow. I will say, when you talk about 1 year to 1 year, the cadence of that spending really matters too, because you're going to carry forward those barrels into a year or so not all dollars are equal, but that should be some good goalpost for you.

正如吉姆之前指出的那樣，當你達到 [Xenith] 時，你的下降率會更高一些。你每年需要大約 70 口淨井才能保持每天 90,000 桶以上的產量，並且隨著時間的推移可能會從這個基礎上增加一點。所以你說的是在這些水平之下的 6 億到 7 億美元的維持資本。但顯然，我們今年的指導更像是 750 美元左右。因此，如果您繼續保持這些水平，您就會成長。我會說，當你談論 1 年到 1 年時，支出的節奏也很重要，因為你要將這些桶結轉到一年左右，並不是所有的美元都是平等的，但這應該是一些好的給你的球門柱。

And then if I could get another -- for a second question. I know this -- it might seem a little bit like a bit of an oddball question and one you probably haven't gotten in a while. But I am curious to know if you would ever consider taking non-op positions outside of these U.S. shale plays. There are still some conventional onshore opportunities here and there. And then you have things like Gulf of Mexico or Canada or moving somewhere international. And I know you don't -- that certainly wouldn't fit into a core competency where you have this real differentiated knowledge base. But of course, building -- you have to start somewhere to build that knowledge. And so I'm just curious if you think about stepping out into some of these other areas, doing a little like a small degree of dabbling to build that knowledge base. I'm just curious to know just how you think about that.

然後，如果我能得到另一個 - 第二個問題。我知道這一點——這可能看起來有點像一個古怪的問題，而且您可能已經有一段時間沒有遇到這個問題了。但我很想知道你是否會考慮在這些美國頁岩油田之外擔任非運營職位。仍然有一些傳統的陸上機會。然後你有諸如墨西哥灣或加拿大之類的東西，或者搬到國際上的某個地方。而且我知道你不知道 - 這肯定不適合你擁有這種真正差異化知識庫的核心競爭力。但是，當然，構建 - 你必須從某個地方開始構建知識。所以我很好奇你是否考慮涉足其他一些領域，稍微涉足一下以建立該知識庫。我只是想知道你是怎麼想的。

Well, I will agree that is an oddball question, but the answer is I don't think so. I mean I think we've seen a handful of Canadian opportunities in our way, and they've never made it past the e-mail in box. I think we take great pride and we take this really seriously about having technical knowledge we spent over 2 years in the Permian before we bought 60 acres, right? And so, if you're going to do something, you need to do it well. And I think that we've seen this one. We've been shopped conventional opportunities in the United States, which is within this country. And those are just simply our technical team is focused elsewhere. And so we want to focus on what we're good at. So I'd say that's a relatively low probability outcome for us.

好吧，我同意這是一個古怪的問題，但答案是我不這麼認為。我的意思是我認為我們已經看到了一些加拿大的機會，而且他們從來沒有通過郵箱中的電子郵件。我認為我們非常自豪，我們非常認真地對待我們在購買 60 英畝土地之前在二疊紀花費了 2 年多的技術知識，對吧？所以，如果你要做某事，你需要把它做好。我認為我們已經看到了這個。我們在美國購買了傳統的機會，這是在這個國家。這些只是我們的技術團隊專注於其他地方。因此，我們希望專注於我們擅長的領域。所以我想說這對我們來說是一個相對較低的概率結果。

Yes. I guess to frame it up a little bit differently in terms of M&A landscape, I think the most interesting opportunities that we're seeing currently are within the basins that we're already in. And that's not to say that we're not canvassing different basins within the Lower 48 because we look at the Eagle Ford, we look at the Haynesville, we've looked at the DJ. We've looked in other basins in that regard. But I think even stepping out into any of those basins, you're going to have to have a hurdle rate that's going to need to be compelling in order for us to dedicate significant resources to that. And so I think we'll continue to keep our ear to the ground and take a look at these other basins from a shale standpoint, but even then, it's going to have to be a higher bar.

是的。我想在併購方面略有不同，我認為我們目前看到的最有趣的機會是在我們已經進入的盆地內。這並不是說我們沒有拉票Lower 48 內的不同盆地，因為我們觀察了 Eagle Ford，我們觀察了 Haynesville，我們觀察了 DJ。我們在這方面研究了其他盆地。但我認為，即使涉足這些盆地中的任何一個，你也必須有一個令人信服的門檻，這樣我們才能為此投入大量資源。因此，我認為我們將繼續密切關注地面，並從頁岩的角度審視這些其他盆地，但即便如此，它也必須是一個更高的標準。

Our next question is from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

So just a couple of things. It was interesting to hear you say that the longer-term outlook is making you see gas assets as very attractive with this pullback and that you're certainly looking at those properties. So I'm just wondering, as you do your evaluation process, how do you sort of weight the issue of getting more concentrated, say, in gassy assets incrementally versus infrastructure uncertainty. I mean how do you sort of tick that into your model?

所以只有幾件事。聽到你說長期前景讓你認為天然氣資產在這次回調中非常有吸引力，你肯定會關注這些資產，這很有趣。所以我只是想知道，在你進行評估過程時，你如何權衡越來越集中於天然氣資產與基礎設施不確定性的問題。我的意思是您如何將其勾選到您的模型中？

I mean I think it all goes in there. I mean the number one, we don't -- we certainly don't pick some esoteric gas price that we think it should got to, to underwrite these things. You have to underwrite them based on the world you're living in now and then stress that further. I'd say that infrastructure is really important. Just using an example when we underwrote our Appalachian properties, we certainly never model in growth just given the infrastructure constraints within that basin, and we ramp pretty punitive differential analysis when we went through that. I'd say in basins that we're not in use the Haynesville, as an example, where we've observed as it's grown materially in the last few years, that infrastructure has gotten really tight.

我的意思是我認為一切都在那裡。我的意思是第一，我們沒有——我們當然不會選擇一些我們認為應該達到的深奧的汽油價格來承保這些事情。你必鬚根據你現在生活的世界來承保它們，然後進一步強調這一點。我會說基礎設施真的很重要。僅舉一個例子，當我們承銷我們的阿巴拉契亞財產時，我們當然不會僅僅考慮到該盆地內的基礎設施限制就對增長進行建模，並且當我們經歷這一點時，我們會進行相當懲罰性的差異分析。我想在盆地中說，我們沒有使用海恩斯維爾，例如，我們觀察到它在過去幾年裡有了實質性的增長，基礎設施變得非常緊張。

We also did the same thing when we were looking in the Permian recognizing the same thing. And so our internal analysis factor in sometimes differentiated views on those things. We've suffered through infrastructure constraints in every basin we operate in. And the key thing is to understand what's short term and what's long term and what's going to have a meaningful impact on the actual value of the properties.

當我們在二疊紀發現同樣的事情時，我們也做了同樣的事情。因此，我們的內部分析因素有時會對這些事情產生不同的看法。在我們經營的每個流域，我們都受到基礎設施限制的影響。關鍵是要了解什麼是短期的，什麼是長期的，以及什麼會對財產的實際價值產生有意義的影響。

And just wondering, and apologies if you touched on this before. Are you on the path to maybe going non-consent on more of what is proposed to you in, for example, Appalachia over for other players that wait a little bit gather?

只是想知道，如果你之前提到過這個，我深表歉意。您是否正在走上不同意更多向您提議的事情的道路，例如，阿巴拉契亞讓其他等待稍等的玩家聚集起來？

Yes. I mean, in Appalachia, the good news is that we have a multiyear program with EQT, and it's more happens a function of the gas environment, but there are no completions this year. So there'll be minimal CapEx. We may spend some drilling CapEx as we prepare for the 24 plan at the end of the year, but not a ton.

是的。我的意思是，在阿巴拉契亞，好消息是我們有一個與 EQT 的多年計劃，它更多地發生在天然氣環境的作用下，但今年沒有完成。因此，資本支出將降至最低。在為年底的 24 計劃做準備時，我們可能會花費一些鑽井資本支出，但不會花費太多。

Yes, it's much longer-term planning. I think where you're going to see the non-consent levered getting pulled or not getting full is going to really depend on inflation and how that interacts with commodity prices because -- and then obviously, depending on who the operators are because at the end of the day, we're in an IRR-driven shop, right? And so if you have a gap down in commodity pricing, but inflation stays sticky, then there's going to be things that may or may not meet our hurdle rate. I think the good news is that most operators are staying relatively disciplined in terms of sticking to the core. And so I think you've got some buffer in that regard versus a lot of the science experiments that we've seen in cycles past.

是的，這是更長期的計劃。我認為你會看到非同意槓桿在何處被拉動或沒有充分發揮作用，這將真正取決於通貨膨脹以及它與商品價格的相互作用，因為 - 然後顯然，取決於運營商是誰，因為在歸根結底，我們是在一個內部收益率驅動的商店裡，對吧？因此，如果您在商品定價方面存在差距，但通貨膨脹率仍然居高不下，那麼就會有一些東西可能會或可能不會達到我們的最低要求。我認為好消息是，大多數運營商在堅持核心方面保持相對自律。因此，與我們在過去的周期中看到的許多科學實驗相比，我認為你在這方面有一些緩衝。

Yes. And just to elaborate on that, Noel. Like as an example, we came into the Permian later where the delineation had been largely made. And so we don't have a ton of acres in areas that are noncore or going to be really subject to some of the swings in commodity prices you see now in the Williston well because we have a large legacy position, we own a lot of noncore properties to Avon's point, they're just not being developed. And so it allows the operators in some ways are doing the work for us.

是的。諾埃爾，請詳細說明一下。舉個例子，我們後來進入了二疊紀，那裡的劃分基本上已經完成。因此，我們在非核心地區沒有大量土地，也不會真正受到您現在在威利斯頓井中看到的商品價格波動的影響，因為我們擁有大量的傳統頭寸，我們擁有很多就雅芳而言，非核心資產只是沒有被開發。因此，它允許運營商以某種方式為我們完成工作。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back to Nick O'Grady, CEO for closing remarks. Over to you, sir.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節已經結束。我現在想把電話轉回給首席執行官尼克奧格雷迪，讓他發表結束語。交給你了，先生。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We'll work really hard to execute on the 2023 plan, and we'll see you on the next quarter.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們將非常努力地執行 2023 年計劃，下個季度見。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。