(NFLX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Netflix Q3 2022 Earnings Interview. I'm Spencer Wang, VP of Finance, IR and Corporate Development. Joining me today are Co-CEO, Reed Hastings; Co-CEO and Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos; COO and Chief Product Officer, Greg Peters; and CFO, Spence Neumann. Our interviewer this quarter is Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.

下午好，歡迎來到 Netflix 2022 年第三季度收益採訪。我是 Spencer Wang，財務、投資者關係和企業發展副總裁。今天加入我的是聯合首席執行官 Reed Hastings；聯合首席執行官兼首席內容官 Ted Sarandos；首席運營官兼首席產品官 Greg Peters；和首席財務官 Spence Neumann。本季度我們的採訪者是摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

As a reminder, we will be making forward-looking statements, and actual results may vary. With that, let's jump into it. Doug, over to you for your first question.

提醒一下，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能會有所不同。有了這個，讓我們開始吧。道格，你的第一個問題。

Great. Thanks, Spencer. And great to see all of you, and thanks for having me join you again today.

偉大的。謝謝，斯賓塞。很高興見到你們所有人，感謝今天讓我再次加入你們。

So let's jump in with advertising. Obviously, a lot of discussion here heading into the launch. You announced details for the new Basic with Ads tier last week launching in the U.S. and 11 other markets. Can you help us understand how you arrived at the price point and the product features for Basic with Ads?

因此，讓我們加入廣告。顯然，這裡有很多討論進入發布。您宣布了上週在美國和其他 11 個市場推出的新 Basic with Ads 層級的詳細信息。您能否幫助我們了解您如何確定 Basic with Ads 的價格點和產品功能？

Yes, Doug. So a lot of what we're thinking in terms of setting pricing for Basic with Ads and how we think about pricing in general anchors on what's the value that we're delivering consumers. We're trying to work very hard to translate the dollars that they give us and do incredible shows. And you can see sort of in Q3 some great examples of the series that we're delivering there, the films were delivering there and that the Q4 slate looks incredible as well.

是的，道格。因此，我們在為 Basic with Ads 設置定價以及我們如何考慮總體定價方面考慮的很多內容都取決於我們為消費者提供的價值是什麼。我們正在努力工作以轉換他們給我們的錢並製作令人難以置信的節目。你可以在第三季度看到我們在那裡交付的系列的一些很好的例子，電影在那裡交付，第四季度的片子看起來也令人難以置信。

And then specifically with regard to ads, we modeled out essentially what we think the expected revenue is on a variety of different countries that we're launching in to make sure that in a combination of the subscription price that we're charging for Basic with Ads plus that anticipated monetization, we'd be roughly, call it, unit economics-wise, revenue positive to neutral. And then when we look at them, the fact that we think that this lower price will -- consumer basic price will bring in a lot more members, then we're quite confident in the long term that this will lead to a significant incremental revenue and profit stream.

然後特別是關於廣告，我們基本上模擬了我們認為我們正在推出的各種不同國家的預期收入，以確保結合我們對 Basic 收取的訂閱價格和廣告加上預期的貨幣化，我們粗略地說，從單位經濟角度來看，收入從正面到中性。然後當我們看到它們時，我們認為這種較低的價格將——消費者基本價格將帶來更多的會員，那麼我們對長期而言非常有信心這將帶來顯著的增量收入和利潤流。

Okay. And I guess just to clarify there, when you talk about kind of getting neutral and perhaps more accretive over time, how -- what are you comparing that to on a unit economic basis that's essentially more to the basic tier?

好的。我想我想澄清一下，當您談到隨著時間的推移變得中立並且可能會更加增值時，您如何將其與單位經濟基礎上進行比較，本質上更多的是基本等級？

Yes. It may be relevant to note that we don't see a lot of members switching plans. So oftentimes, when they come in and they select the plan for a given feature, let's say, that's the 4K resolution, we see that to be a pretty sticky choice. And so when we're thinking about unit economics being neutral to positive, we're really comparing to the like feature set in the Basic without ads.

是的。可能需要注意的是，我們沒有看到很多成員轉換計劃。所以很多時候，當他們進來並為給定功能選擇計劃時，比方說，這就是 4K 分辨率，我們認為這是一個非常棘手的選擇。因此，當我們考慮單位經濟是中性到積極的時候，我們實際上是在與沒有廣告的 Basic 中的類似功能集進行比較。

Okay. Okay. Great. So maybe you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that advertising arm and how would you frame advertiser demand thus far. I know Jeremi last week talked about having hundreds of advertisers on board and add inventory almost sold out.

好的。好的。偉大的。所以也許你可以談談是什麼讓你對那個廣告部門充滿信心，以及到目前為止你將如何構建廣告客戶的需求。我知道 Jeremi 上週談到有數百名廣告商加入並添加幾乎售罄的庫存。

Yes. We started with a bunch of models that were informed by obviously the ad activities in those different countries around the world. But now we're in the point where we get to take those models and we get to bring them actually to advertisers and sort of see what's working in practice. And it's been great to see both our partner in Microsoft and their sales team as well as our small-but-crack ad sales team in actual action with brands and with agencies working through that.

是的。我們從一堆模型開始，這些模型顯然是從世界各地不同國家的廣告活動中得到啟發的。但現在我們已經到了採用這些模型的階段，我們可以將它們實際帶給廣告商，並看看在實踐中什麼是有效的。很高興看到我們在 Microsoft 的合作夥伴和他們的銷售團隊，以及我們的小而精幹的廣告銷售團隊與品牌和代理機構進行實際行動。

And I would say that the initial demand that we're seeing is very strong. So people are very excited about the proposition of bringing their brands and their ads to a bunch of consumers around the world that are watching our shows. They're excited about the positioning against the incredible content and the titles that we have. And so that demand has been very, very strong. And so we're seeing sort of a lot of the expectations that we built into our models come through in that actual sales process. So that's great.

我想說的是，我們看到的最初需求非常強勁。因此，人們對將他們的品牌和廣告帶給世界各地正在觀看我們節目的消費者的提議感到非常興奮。他們對我們擁有的令人難以置信的內容和標題的定位感到興奮。所以這種需求一直非常非常強勁。因此，我們在實際銷售過程中看到了我們在模型中建立的很多期望。那太好了。

I think it's also worth noting, though, that we're very much in the walk -- a crawl-walk-run kind of model that we talked about before we're sort of iteratively improving. And so we're building in a lot of capabilities over the next couple of quarters that we think are important to advertisers to make that advertising offering increasingly attractive and sort of check a bunch of boxes that they have. You might have seen the verification partners that we announced. That's a pretty good example of that. But we've got a lot more on that road map to go do that we're excited about delivering for brands.

不過，我認為還值得注意的是，我們非常喜歡步行——一種我們在迭代改進之前討論過的爬行-步行-跑步模式。因此，我們在接下來的幾個季度中構建了許多我們認為對廣告商很重要的功能，以使廣告產品越來越有吸引力，並檢查他們擁有的一堆盒子。您可能已經看到我們宣布的驗證合作夥伴。這是一個很好的例子。但是我們在路線圖上還有很多事情要做，我們很高興能為品牌提供服務。

Okay. So in terms of those capabilities targeting, obviously, very important here as well. I think you've talked about having broad targeting by country and genre and, I think, within the top 10 shows. And I believe you also asked for age and gender at the time of sign-up as well. Early feedback from marketers and agencies has been that the targeting options at launch are fairly limited. What's your view on that? And how will that targeting evolve over time?

好的。因此，就這些能力目標而言，顯然，這裡也非常重要。我認為您已經談到了按國家和類型進行廣泛定位，並且我認為在前 10 名節目中。而且我相信您在註冊時也詢問了年齡和性別。營銷人員和代理商的早期反饋是，發佈時的定位選項相當有限。你對此有何看法？隨著時間的推移，目標將如何演變？

Yes. Again, I think we're starting -- part of what we want to do is actually get this out to market quickly. And you could see we went from basically the point we announced it to delivering it in about 6 months, which has been a testament to a lot of hard work on internal teams and to Microsoft. But we do have relatively basic targeting capabilities in terms of contextual targeting, genre, et cetera. But that's sort of consistent with what we see with television as well, right?

是的。再次，我認為我們正在開始 - 我們想要做的一部分實際上是將其快速推向市場。你可以看到，我們從基本上宣布它到交付它大約 6 個月的時間，這證明了內部團隊和微軟的大量辛勤工作。但我們在上下文定位、類型等方面確實具有相對基本的定位能力。但這也與我們在電視上看到的一致，對吧？

And obviously, now our job is to move from that into more of what we expect from a digital world, where we have 100% signed-in audience, fully addressable, fully targetable, and so we can start to layer in additional targeting capabilities over time. I think it's also worth noting when we talk about that, that we're very cognizant of privacy, and we want to make that paramount and how we think about this offering. And all of the data that we use will just be used to basically deliver more relevant ads offering on Netflix, and we're not using that data in any way, shape or form for a profile building off Netflix or anything like that.

顯然，現在我們的工作是從數字世界轉變為我們對數字世界的更多期望，我們有 100% 登錄的受眾，完全可尋址，完全可定位，因此我們可以開始在額外的定位功能中分層時間。我認為當我們談論這一點時也值得注意的是，我們非常了解隱私，我們希望將這一點放在首位，以及我們如何看待這個產品。我們使用的所有數據基本上都將用於在 Netflix 上提供更多相關的廣告，我們不會以任何方式、形狀或形式使用這些數據來構建基於 Netflix 或類似的配置文件。

Okay. There's been a lot of discussion in the press about CPMs that are really 2 to 3x those of CTV or other AVOD players. Is that accurate? And what justifies the much higher pricing for Netflix?

好的。媒體上有很多關於每千次展示費用實際上是 CTV 或其他 AVOD 播放器的 2 到 3 倍的討論。那準確嗎？是什麼證明了 Netflix 更高的定價？

I'm not going to comment on any specific pricing, but I would just say that I think we've got a very attractive offering. And that's a combination of the audience that we have, that we're delivering to, that oftentimes it's hard to access in other ways, certainly harder to access in traditional TV in many cases. And it's a result of the incredible content that we've got. So Ted's team is doing an amazing job at producing titles that advertisers want to be next to. And so that's, I think, what you see is driving the demand and the pricing that we can get.

我不會對任何具體定價發表評論，但我只想說我認為我們提供了非常有吸引力的產品。這是我們擁有的觀眾的組合，我們正在交付給，通常很難以其他方式訪問，在許多情況下，在傳統電視中當然更難訪問。這是我們擁有的令人難以置信的內容的結果。所以 Ted 的團隊在製作廣告商想要的標題方面做得非常出色。所以，我認為，你所看到的是推動需求和我們可以獲得的定價。

Okay. You've talked in the past about wanting the ad offering to be innovative and somewhat different over time. If we think about the range of 4 to 5 minutes of ads per hour, it's certainly lower. You've talked about tight frequency capping. What else do you think is innovative at least in the initial offering? And then how does that evolve more over time?

好的。您過去曾談到希望廣告產品具有創新性並且隨著時間的推移而有所不同。如果我們考慮每小時 4 到 5 分鐘的廣告範圍，肯定會更低。您談到了嚴格的頻次上限。您認為至少在首次發行中還有什麼創新之處？那麼隨著時間的推移，它是如何演變的呢？

Yes. As you noted, we want to start with an experience that's very pro-consumer, consumer centric. And so that's definitely informed both our ad load and thinking about the frequency capping. What I love about those things is the more we talk to brands and advertisers, there's actually a high degree of alignment between sort of what their desires are and what we think is great for consumers. So they're enthusiastic about not having high frequency caps and having sort of -- a sort of more unique offering there. And also, limited ad loads sets their ads apart more distinctly. So I think I love that alignment to begin with.

是的。正如您所指出的，我們希望從一種非常親消費者、以消費者為中心的體驗開始。所以這絕對是我們的廣告負載和頻率上限的考慮因素。我喜歡這些事情的是，我們與品牌和廣告商交談的次數越多，實際上他們的願望和我們認為對消費者有益的東西之間存在高度的一致性。因此，他們熱衷於不設置高頻率上限並擁有某種 - 一種更獨特的產品。而且，有限的廣告負載使他們的廣告更加明顯。所以我想我一開始就喜歡這種對齊方式。

And then over time, we're going to access a bunch of the capabilities that you've seen us leverage over the last 10 years to think about innovation in the space. So personalization, I think, is a great example where we don't need to think about the ads experience as being uniform across all of our members. And we think about we can leverage the personalization capability that we've built in terms of titles and how we present titles and also in terms of how we present ads. So I think that's an exciting dimension that we're going to work on as well.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們將使用您在過去 10 年中看到我們利用的一系列功能來思考該領域的創新。因此，我認為個性化是一個很好的例子，我們不需要將所有成員的廣告體驗視為統一的。我們認為我們可以利用我們在標題和展示標題的方式以及展示廣告的方式方面建立的個性化功能。所以我認為這也是一個令人興奮的方面，我們也將繼續努力。

And additionally, we're also excited to work with sort of partners and our advertisers to think about what is that ads experience, the ad format that is really best suited for premium connected TV. And we're starting with meeting the market where it's at today. That's important to access sort of all the capabilities they've got, but we don't need to stay there. And I think we're looking forward to, over a couple of years, understanding what is the right native format for premium connected TV and figuring out what that looks like.

此外，我們也很高興與一些合作夥伴和我們的廣告商合作，思考這種廣告體驗是什麼，這種廣告格式最適合優質聯網電視。我們從滿足今天的市場開始。這對於訪問他們擁有的所有功能很重要，但我們不需要留在那裡。我認為我們期待在幾年內了解什麼是優質聯網電視的正確原生格式，並弄清楚它是什麼樣子。

Doug, I might just add also just part of the innovation was just, for us, the business innovation of speed to market. As Greg said, getting from announced to launched within 6 months and to doing so in every region in which we operate, so 12 markets that represent well over half of our revenue today, so part of it is just that nimbleness and speed which hopefully will bring to our innovation path going forward as well.

道格，我可能只是補充一點，對我們來說，創新的一部分只是上市速度的業務創新。正如 Greg 所說，從宣佈到推出在 6 個月內，並在我們運營的每個地區都這樣做，所以 12 個市場占我們今天收入的一半以上，所以其中一部分就是敏捷性和速度，希望能也為我們的創新之路帶來前進。

Okay. In terms of subscribers, how do you think about just this concept of kind of new net adds versus trade-down from existing subs on the Basic with Ads tier? It's obviously a pretty frequent discussion with investors.

好的。就訂閱者而言，您如何看待這種新的淨添加概念與在 Basic with Ads 層中現有訂閱者的折衷？這顯然是與投資者的頻繁討論。

Yes. Again, I think it's important just to reiterate that we don't see a lot of plan switching on the existing plan set. So that's, I think, a worthwhile point to note. And then obviously, as we stated before, we're not really trying to steer our members to one plan or another. We're trying to take a pro-consumer approach and sort of let them find and land on the right plan for them.

是的。同樣，我認為重要的是重申我們沒有看到很多計劃切換現有計劃集。所以，我認為，這是一個值得注意的點。然後很明顯，正如我們之前所說，我們並沒有真正試圖引導我們的成員採用一個或另一個計劃。我們正在嘗試採取有利於消費者的方法，讓他們找到並製定適合他們的正確計劃。

And as we stated, we modeled out that expected performance on ad monetization and factor that into our thinking around price point for the Basic with Ads. And so we really anticipate that this is going to be a pro-consumer model that will be more attractive, bring more members in because the consumer basic price is low. But then again, the economics and the revenue will be fine as a result even if some of those consumers switch plans. And again, just to restate this, when you factor in those extra members, we expect this leads to a significant and incremental revenue and profit stream.

正如我們所說，我們模擬了廣告貨幣化的預期表現，並將其納入我們對 Basic with Ads 價格點的思考。所以我們真的預計這將是一個更有吸引力的親消費者模式，因為消費者的基本價格很低，所以會吸引更多的會員。但話又說回來，即使其中一些消費者改變計劃，經濟和收入也會因此而好。再次重申這一點，當您考慮到這些額外成員時，我們預計這會帶來可觀的增量收入和利潤流。

And how do you think about the impact in terms of reducing churn and perhaps how that plays out across some of the different markets given different characteristics and levels of penetration?

您如何看待減少客戶流失方面的影響，以及考慮到不同的特徵和滲透水平，這可能如何在一些不同的市場中發揮作用？

Yes. I think generally, what we've seen is that, obviously, lower price helps with churn. And so I think that there'll be some positive dynamics there. But again, we really -- we're in early days now, and we've got to launch this thing and we'll learn so much more over the months to come.

是的。我認為總的來說，我們所看到的是，很明顯，較低的價格有助於減少客戶流失。所以我認為那裡會有一些積極的動力。但同樣，我們真的 - 我們現在處於早期階段，我們必須推出這個東西，我們將在接下來的幾個月裡學到更多。

Again, so much of that is tied to engagement. I mean the best way to reduce churn is to keep them entertained.

同樣，其中很大一部分與參與度有關。我的意思是減少客戶流失的最好方法是讓他們開心。

Right. Right, which you've clearly done in this past quarter. And we'll talk more about that in a minute, Ted. At the Code Conference last month, Sundar said that the Netflix-Microsoft ad deal is one of the biggest ad deals ever. Are there any particular components of the deal that give you confidence in the advertising revenue outlook here and how it compares to subscription over time?

正確的。是的，你在上個季度顯然已經做到了。特德，我們稍後再談。在上個月的 Code Conference 上，Sundar 表示 Netflix 與微軟的廣告交易是有史以來最大的廣告交易之一。交易中是否有任何特定組成部分讓您對這裡的廣告收入前景以及隨著時間的推移與訂閱相比如何？

Well, one of the big factors for us in picking Microsoft is that we felt like we were highly strategically aligned. They had an approach that was similar to ours, which is that we want to launch and then learn quickly and iterate quickly and that there was a lot of flexibility both in terms of innovation around the formats and approaches that we just talked about. Partly, it was a lot of flexibility in thinking about how do we leverage the combined go-to-market capability that Microsoft has a lot of right now and that we have very little but we're going to build over time.

嗯，我們選擇微軟的一個重要因素是我們覺得我們在戰略上高度一致。他們有一種與我們類似的方法，即我們希望啟動，然後快速學習并快速迭代，並且在圍繞我們剛剛談到的格式和方法的創新方面有很大的靈活性。部分原因是，我們在思考如何利用微軟目前擁有的綜合上市能力時具有很大的靈活性，而我們目前擁有的能力很少，但我們將隨著時間的推移而建立。

And frankly, when I see the demand that we're in right now, we're stretched between the 2 teams to really support all that. So I'm actually excited about our ability to grow that capacity on the Microsoft side that I think they're going to do some hiring and building and we're going to do some hiring and building and then, through that joint capacity growth, be able to better serve more advertisers, which we can't even -- actually, we're turning some folks away right now because we just don't have the go-to-market capacity to serve everyone.

坦率地說，當我看到我們現在的需求時，我們在 2 個團隊之間捉襟見肘，以真正支持所有這些。所以我實際上對我們在微軟方面增加能力的能力感到興奮，我認為他們將進行一些招聘和建設，我們將進行一些招聘和建設，然後通過聯合能力增長，能夠更好地為更多的廣告商服務，我們甚至無法做到——實際上，我們現在正在拒絕一些人，因為我們只是沒有進入市場的能力來為所有人服務。

And Doug, at that same conference, Bob Iger said that linear TV was going off a cliff.

而道格，在同一次會議上，鮑勃艾格說線性電視正在走下懸崖。

He did.

他做到了。

And what we -- or what I underappreciated was just the impact on advertisers. They're just being able to reach fewer people. And then the 18 to 49 demographic is even faster than the decline in pay TV. So this is what is really fueling the cycle is that really collapse of linear TV as an advertising vehicle outside of a few properties like sports.

而我們——或者我低估的只是對廣告商的影響。他們只是能夠接觸到更少的人。然後 18 到 49 歲的人群甚至比付費電視的下降還要快。因此，真正推動這個循環的是線性電視作為一種廣告工具在體育等少數屬性之外的真正崩潰。

So Reed, maybe that just brings up the question -- and for you as well, Greg. I mean when you're going out to agencies and marketers, do you really -- do you feel like you're going after linear TV dollars? Or are you going after digital dollars right now?

所以里德，也許這只是提出了問題——對你來說也是如此，格雷格。我的意思是，當你與代理機構和營銷人員見面時，你真的——你覺得你在追求線性電視的收入嗎？或者你現在正在追求數字美元？

Yes. I'd say when you look at the capabilities of our -- the current offering that we have as a publisher, I think we're mostly competitive with linear right now. Obviously, I think that we'll build into that over time. And a lot of what makes digital attractive will be part of our offering as we go.

是的。我想說，當您查看我們作為發行商當前提供的產品的功能時，我認為我們現在主要與線性競爭。顯然，我認為我們會隨著時間的推移而建立起來。隨著我們的發展，許多使數字具有吸引力的因素將成為我們產品的一部分。

Obviously, I think when you think about sort of demand capture and those direct response ads versus sort of the more brand side, we're probably going to be leaning for some time more into that brand side of things, where we can be more competitive. But I think those worlds are going to blur over time realistically. And our job is to be highly competitive with the components, the technical components that we can add in, in terms of targeting, et cetera, but also then be very competitive because we have really incredible content and an incredible audience that advertisers want to connect with.

顯然，我認為當你考慮需求捕獲和那些直接響應廣告與更多品牌方面相比時，我們可能會在一段時間內更傾向於品牌方面，我們可以更具競爭力.但我認為這些世界實際上會隨著時間的推移而變得模糊。我們的工作是在組件方面具有很強的競爭力，我們可以添加的技術組件，在定位等方面，但也要非常有競爭力，因為我們擁有非常令人難以置信的內容和廣告商想要聯繫的令人難以置信的受眾和。

Okay. And Spence, in terms of ad revenue, it feels like it should be very high margin. Maybe you can just talk about some of the key costs or investments in running the ad business given that Microsoft is responsible for the bulk of that sales for now.

好的。而Spence，就廣告收入而言，感覺應該是非常高的利潤率。鑑於微軟目前負責大部分銷售，也許你可以談談運營廣告業務的一些關鍵成本或投資。

Yes, I'd agree with you, Doug. Again, we need to build this out over time. As Greg said, on a unit economic basis, we feel good that this will be kind of net neutral to positive out of the gate. And then when you add in the incrementality on subscribers, we think we can build a big incremental revenue and profit streams.

是的，我同意你的看法，道格。同樣，我們需要隨著時間的推移來構建它。正如格雷格所說，在單位經濟基礎上，我們覺得這將是一種從淨中性到積極的正面。然後，當您添加訂閱者的增量時，我們認為我們可以建立一個巨大的增量收入和利潤流。

So there are some costs. Obviously, there's some cost to our partnership with Microsoft. There's some cost of building out our side of the internal team to kind of build out our capabilities with Jeremi and Peter and then, obviously, some other costs here and there.

所以會有一些成本。顯然，我們與微軟的合作需要付出一些代價。建立我們的內部團隊需要一些成本，以增強我們與 Jeremi 和 Peter 的能力，然後，顯然，這里和那裡還有一些其他成本。

But overall, I'm not going to get into specifics, but we believe this can be margin accretive over -- certainly margin accretive over time. It's going to be pretty small out of the gate. It's kind of reflected in our Q4 guidance. As you can see, it's an intra-quarter launch, and we're not expecting any material financial impact in this first kind of partial quarter but will build over time, and it will be additive to the business.

但總的來說，我不打算詳細說明，但我們相信這可能會增加利潤率——當然隨著時間的推移會增加利潤率。它會在大門外非常小。這在我們的第四季度指導中有所反映。正如你所看到的，這是一個季度內的發布，我們預計第一個部分季度不會產生任何實質性的財務影響，但會隨著時間的推移而增加，這將對業務產生影響。

Okay. Great. All right. So for the record, we're not hitting subscriber numbers until about 15 minutes in here. So -- but you added 2.4 million subs in the third quarter. You're expecting 4.5 million in 4Q. Maybe you can just kind of walk us through how you're feeling about core subscriber growth before you kind of get into the dynamics in '23 around advertising and paid sharing.

好的。偉大的。好的。因此，鄭重聲明，我們要等到這里大約 15 分鐘才能達到訂戶數量。所以——但是你在第三季度增加了 240 萬個訂閱者。您預計第四季度將達到 450 萬。在您了解 23 年圍繞廣告和付費共享的動態之前，也許您可以先讓我們了解一下您對核心訂戶增長的感受。

Well, thank God, we're done with shrinking quarters. That's a big feeling of -- we're back to the positivity. Obviously, this quarter and the guidance for Q4 are reasonable, not fantastic but reasonable. And then we got to pick up the momentum.

好吧，感謝上帝，我們已經完成了縮小宿舍的工作。這是一種很大的感覺——我們又回到了積極的態度。顯然，本季度和第四季度的指導是合理的，不是很好，但也是合理的。然後我們必須抓住勢頭。

Everything the company is focused on, whether that's on the content side, on marketing, lowering prices to the ad supported, the paid sharing, the thoughtful approach we're doing there lines us up for a good next year. We still got FX, so that's a huge hit, as we've explained. So that's not going to go away. But other than that, all the stars are lining up very well for us.

公司所關注的一切，無論是在內容方面，營銷，降低廣告支持的價格，付費分享，我們在那裡做的深思熟慮的方法，我們都在為明年的美好做好準備。正如我們所解釋的，我們仍然有 FX，所以這是一個巨大的打擊。所以這不會消失。但除此之外，所有的明星都為我們排好了隊。

Spence, do you want to add to that?

Spence，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes. Reed, no, you're doing my job for me, which is great. I appreciate that. But yes, we're -- as Reed said, we're not -- we're still not growing as fast as we'd like. So we're building momentum, we're pleased with our progress, but we know we've got a lot more work to do.

是的。里德，不，你在為我做我的工作，這很棒。我很感激。但是，是的，我們 - 正如里德所說，我們不是 - 我們仍然沒有像我們想要的那樣快速增長。所以我們正在建立勢頭，我們對我們的進步感到滿意，但我們知道我們還有很多工作要做。

We're pleased with Q3. We saw acquisition growth a bit more than we had in the past few quarters, which is great across every region. Churn remained, yes, slightly elevated, kind of similar to where we were at the end of Q2. But overall, when you combine those 2 things, we delivered paid net adds of 2.4 million, which is a little bit above our guide, so we kind of under forecast there, obviously.

我們對第三季度感到滿意。我們看到收購增長比過去幾個季度要多一些，這在每個地區都很棒。流失率仍然存在，是的，略微升高，有點類似於我們在第二季度末的情況。但總的來說，當你把這兩件事結合起來時，我們交付了 240 萬的付費淨增加值，這比我們的指導值高一點，所以我們顯然有點低估了那裡的預測。

And then for Q4, as we talked about and as Reed talked about and you mentioned, we're guiding to 4.5 million paid net adds. Reflected in that guide is what we talked about. We're off to a nice start. I'm sure Ted will talk about the strength of the content slate. We started with Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story and into The Watcher and others that are building. So it's a strong seasonal quarter.

然後對於第四季度，正如我們談到的，正如里德談到的和你提到的，我們正在指導 450 萬付費淨增加。反映在該指南中的是我們所討論的內容。我們有了一個好的開始。我相信 Ted 會談論內容板的強度。我們從 Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story 開始，然後進入 The Watcher 和其他正在建設的項目。所以這是一個強勁的季節性季度。

But some of those revenue accelerators that we know we're focused on in the near term, whether it's ads, we just talked a bunch about that. There's not going to be -- we don't expect at least a big financial impact in this first launch quarter. And we also -- as we talked about in the letter, we have a solution that we'll be rolling out in '23 for paid sharing and monetizing all that unpaid viewing we've been talking about. But again, that doesn't even start rolling out until early '23.

但是我們知道我們在短期內關注的一些收入加速器，無論是廣告，我們剛剛談到了很多。不會有——我們預計在第一個發布季度至少不會產生重大的財務影響。而且我們還 - 正如我們在信中談到的那樣，我們有一個解決方案，我們將在 23 年推出付費分享和貨幣化我們一直在談論的所有非付費觀看。但同樣，這甚至直到 23 年初才開始推出。

And there's some other near-term limiters to our growth. There's -- take currency out, we still have -- penetrating the connected TV market and the sales cycle there. We got competition. We've got some macro strain, whether it's higher inflation, energy prices and some of the geopolitical strain around the world.

我們的增長還有其他一些近期限制因素。有 - 除去貨幣，我們仍然有 - 滲透連接電視市場和那裡的銷售週期。我們有競爭。我們面臨一些宏觀壓力，無論是更高的通脹、能源價格還是世界各地的一些地緣政治壓力。

So all those things are factored into our guide. It's a little bit less visibility than we typically would see. But overall, we feel really good that we're building that momentum. We've set a path to the growth. You're seeing growth in paid net adds both in actuals for Q3 and into the guide to Q4 and, most importantly, a path to accelerate revenue growth and hit the ground running in '23.

因此，所有這些事情都已納入我們的指南。它的能見度比我們通常看到的要低一些。但總的來說，我們感覺非常好，我們正在建立這種勢頭。我們已經為增長設定了道路。您會看到第三季度的實際收入和第四季度的指南中的付費淨增長都在增長，最重要的是，這是一條加速收入增長並在 23 年開始運行的道路。

Okay. Great. You had your 2 biggest English language series ever, I think, in the span of 3 to 4 months with Stranger Things 4 and Dahmer. Do you believe the content cadence is becoming more normalized to your post-pandemic? And how much of a factor were those titles in driving 3Q subs and now more momentum into the fourth quarter?

好的。偉大的。我認為，在 Stranger Things 4 和 Dahmer 的 3 到 4 個月內，你擁有了有史以來最大的 2 個英語系列。您是否認為內容節奏在大流行後變得更加正常化？這些頭銜在推動第三季度訂閱量以及現在進入第四季度的動力有多大？

Look, big shows that folks engage with and talk about drives a lot of growth. I do think it's -- people come to value that. And for us, our goal is we've got to get them to come to expect it. So right after they finish something great that they love, that there's an expectation that there's something right behind it.

看，人們參與和談論的大型節目推動了很多增長。我確實認為是——人們開始重視這一點。對我們來說，我們的目標是我們必須讓他們開始期待它。所以在他們完成了他們喜歡的偉大的事情之後，人們就會期望它背後有一些東西。

So you described it pretty nicely. You come out of Stranger Things Season 4, you roll right into a big movie like Gray Man or a movie that you fall in love with like Purple Hearts or a great animated feature like Sea Beast. Then you go with that and you roll right into Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. And then right out of that, I mean, back-to-back hits from Ryan, going right into The Watcher. So I think it's -- that cadence is something I do think we're getting better at as we get more and more mature in our creation of original content. Remember, Doug, we've only been at it for 10 years.

所以你描述得很好。你從《怪奇物語》第 4 季中走出來，直接進入像《灰人》這樣的大電影，或者像《紫心》這樣你愛上的電影，或者像《海獸》這樣的偉大動畫長片。然後你繼續前進，然後直接進入 Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story。然後，我的意思是，Ryan 的背靠背命中，直接進入 The Watcher。所以我認為它是——我認為隨著我們在原創內容的創作中變得越來越成熟，節奏是我認為我們正在變得更好的東西。記住，道格，我們只做了 10 年。

And the other thing...

而另一件事...

Ted, maybe just...

泰德，也許只是...

Go ahead, Reed, sorry.

去吧，里德，對不起。

Ted, maybe just talk a little about the smoothing of content monthly, kind of what state we're at this year, what you think we can get to next year sort of easing out of that COVID concentration.

泰德，也許只是談談每月內容的平滑，我們今年處於什麼樣的狀態，你認為我們明年可以達到什麼樣的狀態，從而緩解 COVID 的集中度。

Yes, COVID got a lot of content jammed up in the later parts of the year, and that impact rolls out and rolls out because even when people are getting back to normal work, they were all working on those projects during COVID. So it takes -- it will take several years to completely unwind the COVID logjam.

是的，COVID 在今年晚些時候出現了很多內容堵塞，這種影響不斷擴大，因為即使人們恢復正常工作，他們都在 COVID 期間從事這些項目。所以需要 - 完全解除 COVID 僵局需要幾年時間。

And historically, Q4 tends to be a little heavier than Q1 and Q2 mostly because of the historical legacy of the fall TV series and the fall film cycles with film festivals and award cycles and all those things that are kind of unnatural to viewers watching. So we're trying to be more and more aggressive about smoothing that out to make sure that the content is available when people are ready to watch it.

從歷史上看，第 4 季度往往比第 1 季度和第 2 季度要重一些，主要是因為秋季電視劇的歷史遺產和秋季電影週期與電影節和頒獎週期以及所有這些對觀眾來說有點不自然的事情。因此，我們正試圖更加積極地解決這一問題，以確保當人們準備好觀看內容時，內容是可用的。

And just to add to that, it's really kind of smoothing it out across all of our content categories, so there's always something great to watch whatever your mood or taste. And even just to build on Ted's point, it's not just kind of the English language titles. And I'm sorry if I missed some of what he said, but even if you think of the last -- in this last quarter, whether it's every region, Sintonia in Brazil, The Empress in Germany, High Water in Poland, Narco-Saints in Korea, more and more of those big local titles with big local impact as well that can -- that also have the ability to travel. So it's really kind of getting that cadence in every country and region around the world.

除此之外，它確實可以在我們所有的內容類別中進行平滑處理，因此無論您的心情或口味如何，總有一些很棒的東西可以觀看。甚至只是建立在 Ted 的觀點上，這不僅僅是英語標題。如果我錯過了他所說的一些內容，我很抱歉，但即使你想到最後一個 - 在最後一個季度，無論是每個地區，巴西的 Sintonia，德國的女皇，波蘭的 High Water，Narco-韓國的聖徒，越來越多的具有重大當地影響力的大型地方頭銜也可以——也有旅行的能力。因此，在世界上每個國家和地區都有這種節奏。

And probably none was a better example of this go-around than Extraordinary Attorney Woo from Korea. 400 million hours of watching around the world, just a real phenomenon that we can take a show that other folks would view as being extraordinarily Korean and make it work around the world.

可能沒有比來自韓國的特別律師 Woo 更好的例子了。在全球觀看 4 億小時，這只是一個真實的現象，我們可以拍攝一個其他人會認為非常韓國的節目，並使其在全球範圍內發揮作用。

Okay. Ted, there's a lot of discussion just around the philosophy around content. And I guess the question is, is there a process or selectivity changing at all in terms of the greenlighting of content? Does it need to?

好的。 Ted，圍繞內容的哲學有很多討論。我想問題是，就內容的綠燈而言，是否有一個過程或選擇性發生了變化？需要嗎？

Look, the -- let me go back to what I was saying earlier. We started this about 10 years ago. We had no IP. We had no library. We moved as quickly as we could to build a library of our own IP and to build our own library. And in those 10 years, that library now gets more viewing, more revenue and more profit than all of our competitors who've been at it for over 100.

看，讓我回到我之前說的話。我們大約在 10 年前開始了這項工作。我們沒有IP。我們沒有圖書館。我們盡快採取行動，建立我們自己的 IP 庫並建立我們自己的庫。在這 10 年中，該圖書館現在比我們所有在該圖書館工作超過 100 年的競爭對手獲得了更多的瀏覽量、更多的收入和更多的利潤。

So when I look at that and think, okay, along the way, we probably made a lot of mistakes, and we learned a lot. So today, when I think about what we learned today, we've kind of developed a lot stronger skill sets and partnerships and processes to ensure quality of delivery and working with our creators and to give them the tools to deliver for the audience, some things that are fairly proprietary and some things that just benefit from the scale of our business so that they can really do what we want to do, which is please audiences.

所以當我看著那個並想，好吧，一路上，我們可能犯了很多錯誤，我們學到了很多東西。所以今天，當我想到我們今天學到的東西時，我們已經開發了更強大的技能組合、合作夥伴關係和流程，以確保交付質量並與我們的創作者合作，並為他們提供工具來為觀眾提供服務，一些一些相當專有的東西和一些從我們的業務規模中受益的東西，這樣他們就可以真正做我們想做的事情，那就是取悅觀眾。

And you've got to remember, as we go, to do that, it isn't just making prestige shows in English. It's also making a very kind of pop culture television across every genre, across every format imaginable. And in doing that, that's the thing that I think we can bring scale and creativity and audience connectivity that others can't compete with. So for me, that's the biggest thing that when you say do we -- are we sharpening our tools, are we getting better, we're definitely getting more mature about the process.

在我們進行的過程中，你必須記住，要做到這一點，不僅僅是用英語製作聲望節目。它還製作了一種非常流行的文化電視，涵蓋了所有類型、所有可以想像的格式。在這樣做的過程中，我認為我們可以帶來其他人無法競爭的規模、創造力和觀眾聯繫。所以對我來說，這是最重要的事情，當你說我們 - 我們是否正在改進我們的工具，我們是否變得更好，我們肯定會在這個過程中變得更加成熟。

And then if you go all the way back to the beginning of time, we didn't have any staff who had any experience in creating original anything on Netflix. So we built that up to where we're at today, which is in the last quarter, we've released 7 of our most popular releases of all time just in this last quarter.

如果你一直回到過去，我們沒有任何員工有在 Netflix 上創作原創內容的經驗。所以我們把它建立到今天的狀態，也就是上個季度，我們在上個季度發布了我們有史以來最受歡迎的 7 個版本。

Okay. Great. You talked last quarter about content spend staying kind of flattish around $17 billion or so number in annual cash spending. So I realize that, that's up this year when you kind of take out the incremental COVID costs from last year. But does the discipline around content spending push you to do anything differently? And I guess, what's your confidence that you can deliver both the quantity and also the quality of content that you want within that number across all regions?

好的。偉大的。您在上個季度談到內容支出在年度現金支出中保持穩定在 170 億美元左右。所以我意識到，當你從去年開始扣除增量的 COVID 成本時，今年就會出現這種情況。但是圍繞內容支出的紀律是否會促使您做任何不同的事情？而且我想，您有什麼信心可以在所有地區的該數量範圍內提供您想要的內容的數量和質量？

Look, I think what we're seeing, Doug, is that both the scope and scale as well as the range and the cadence of hits is improving. So that -- I feel better and better about that $17 billion of content spend because what we have to do is be better and better at getting more impact per $1 billion spend than anybody else. And that's how we're focusing on it. So I think we're about the right -- we're spending at about the right level. And as we reaccelerate revenue, we'll revisit that number, of course, but we're a pretty disciplined bunch about that.

看，我認為我們所看到的，道格，範圍和規模以及命中的範圍和節奏都在改善。所以——我對 170 億美元的內容支出感覺越來越好，因為我們要做的就是越來越好地在每 10 億美元的支出中獲得比其他任何人都更大的影響。這就是我們關注它的方式。所以我認為我們是正確的——我們的支出水平大約是正確的。當我們重新加速收入時，我們當然會重新審視這個數字，但我們對此非常自律。

Okay. The Knives Out sequel, Glass Onion, so pretty highly anticipated, you're going to release it in a limited number of theaters, I think, for a week around Thanksgiving before hitting Netflix, I believe, on December 23. But there also seems to have been a push to perhaps run it for a longer period of time in theaters. So maybe you can just talk about some of the debate there, what the rationale is to just do it for 1 week and how do you think that, that kind of release will drive viewership on Netflix.

好的。 The Knives Out 續集 Glass Onion 非常受期待，我想你會在有限數量的影院上映，我認為，在感恩節前後一周，然後在 12 月 23 日登陸 Netflix。但似乎也有可能會推動它在影院中運行更長的時間。所以也許你可以談談那裡的一些爭論，只做 1 週的理由是什麼，你如何看待，這種發布將推動 Netflix 的收視率。

Well, first, I'll tell you we're in the business of entertaining our members with Netflix movies on Netflix. So that's where we focus all of our energy and most of our spend. Our films are always heavily featured in film festivals around the world because they're in demand, made by the greatest filmmakers on the planet. And for all those folks who can't get to a city where a festival is, this 1-week release on 600 screens is a way of creating access to the film and building buzz, the same thing we're doing in those festivals. So I would look at this as just another way to build anticipation for the film and build buzz and reputation for the film ahead of its Netflix release.

好吧，首先，我要告訴您，我們的業務是通過 Netflix 上的 Netflix 電影來娛樂我們的會員。所以這就是我們集中所有精力和大部分支出的地方。我們的電影總是在世界各地的電影節中大量亮相，因為它們很受歡迎，由地球上最偉大的電影製片人製作。對於那些無法前往舉辦電影節的城市的人來說，在 600 個屏幕上發布的為期 1 週的版本是一種創造對電影的訪問權並引起轟動的方式，這與我們在這些電影節中所做的事情相同。所以我認為這只是另一種方式來建立對這部電影的期待，並在它的 Netflix 發布之前為這部電影建立嗡嗡聲和聲譽。

There's all kinds of debates all the time back and forth, but there is no question internally that we make our movies for our members, and we really want them to watch them on Netflix. And of course, with 1 week of release in theaters, most people will see them on Netflix, just like they see all movies. Most people watch most movies at home. So we think that there's plenty of -- and I think this particular release sits somewhere between that week we have to run movies to qualify for awards and the time that we run them in a film festival and the time that we travel them around, but it's a way of condensing that into a louder event.

一直有各種各樣的爭論，但毫無疑問，我們在內部為我們的會員製作電影，我們真的希望他們在 Netflix 上觀看。當然，在影院上映 1 週後，大多數人會在 Netflix 上看到它們，就像他們看所有電影一樣。大多數人在家看大多數電影。所以我們認為有很多——我認為這個特別的版本介於我們必須運行電影以獲得獎項的那一周和我們在電影節上運行它們的時間和我們四處旅行的時間之間，但是這是一種將其濃縮為更響亮的事件的方式。

Got it. Okay. Pretty clear. Let's shift gears a little bit, talk about paid sharing. You announced profile transfer yesterday, which facilitates nonpaying members shifting their recommendations and history and other settings to a new account. Maybe you can talk about how this is a potential precursor to having borrowers kind of become either having their own accounts or adding to an existing member and just how we should think about timing of the rollout there.

知道了。好的。很清楚。讓我們稍微改變一下，談談付費分享。您昨天宣布了個人資料轉移，這有助於非付費會員將他們的推薦、歷史記錄和其他設置轉移到新帳戶。也許你可以談談這是如何讓借款人成為擁有自己的賬戶或添加到現有成員的潛在先兆，以及我們應該如何考慮在那裡推出的時間。

Sure. The profile transfer, I mean, supports a couple of different use cases, right? I mean there's obviously situations where you can imagine like you have a kid at home who is going to go off and become an adult and get their own account, and it supports those ones. But it does enable a key thing that we learned around how we think about paid sharing. And we've been working really hard to try and find essentially a balanced position and approach towards this one that supports customer choice and, frankly, a long history of customer centricity that we think has informed how we think about establishing our service but balancing that with making sure that as a business, we're sort of getting paid when we're delivering entertainment value to consumers.

當然。我的意思是，配置文件傳輸支持幾個不同的用例，對吧？我的意思是，顯然在某些情況下，您可以想像家裡有一個孩子，他要離開並成為成年人並擁有自己的帳戶，並且它支持這些帳戶。但它確實使我們了解了關於我們如何看待付費共享的關鍵事情。我們一直在努力嘗試找到一個基本平衡的立場和方法來支持客戶選擇，坦率地說，我們認為以客戶為中心的悠久歷史告訴我們如何考慮建立我們的服務，但要平衡這一點確保作為一家企業，當我們向消費者提供娛樂價值時，我們會獲得一定的報酬。

And as we try to deal with pretty much all of our product changes where we can, we try and -- try different approaches and listen to our members and use their reactions to help us understand what's working and what's not working. So we've tried a couple of different approaches in different countries. You saw that. And based on the customer feedback that we're getting, we sort of landed on an approach towards paid sharing that we think strikes that balance.

當我們嘗試盡可能處理幾乎所有產品變更時，我們嘗試並嘗試不同的方法並傾聽我們的成員並利用他們的反應來幫助我們了解哪些有效，哪些無效。所以我們在不同的國家嘗試了幾種不同的方法。你看到了。根據我們得到的客戶反饋，我們在某種程度上找到了一種付費分享的方法，我們認為這種方法可以達到這種平衡。

And a key component of that is the ability for borrowers, people that are using somebody else's account right now to access Netflix, to be able to create their own separate account. And part of that is transferring their profile and their viewing history and all the great information that basically informs hopefully great recommendations for them. And we think that, that sort of separate account path will be especially attractive in countries where we're launching that lower-priced Basic with Ads plan. That lower price obviously makes that more attractive.

其中一個關鍵組成部分是藉款人能夠創建自己的單獨帳戶，這些人現在正在使用其他人的帳戶訪問 Netflix。其中一部分是轉移他們的個人資料和他們的觀看歷史以及所有重要的信息，這些信息基本上可以為他們提供很好的建議。我們認為，在我們推出低價 Basic with Ads 計劃的國家/地區，這種單獨的帳戶路徑將特別有吸引力。較低的價格顯然使其更具吸引力。

Another component of this, though, is allowing account owners to be able to pay for Netflix for some friend or family, somebody they want to share the service with. And so they're able to create a sub-account, which we're calling extra member, to enable that model, too. So we're trying to come up with a range of options that supports customer choice, balances those considerations but also ensures that we've got a sustainable business model that allows us to invest in more of that great entertainment that Ted's team has always focused on for all of our members. So we're looking forward to getting that out in early '23.

不過，其中的另一個組成部分是允許帳戶所有者能夠為某些朋友或家人（他們想與之共享服務的人）支付 Netflix 費用。因此，他們也能夠創建一個子賬戶，我們稱之為額外成員，以啟用該模型。因此，我們試圖提出一系列支持客戶選擇的選項，平衡這些考慮因素，同時確保我們擁有一個可持續的商業模式，讓我們能夠投資於 Ted 團隊一直專注的更多精彩娛樂活動為我們所有的會員開啟。因此，我們期待在 23 年初推出它。

And do you think extra member and kind of new accounts, could that be bigger than advertising in 2023 for Netflix?

你認為額外的會員和新賬戶的種類會比 2023 年 Netflix 的廣告更大嗎？

I don't -- I won't say which would be bigger or better. I think they're complementary in many ways. And what we're seeing is that there's a number of different needs, right? Paying for Netflix for somebody that you want to share that service with, that's a legitimate need. Creating a lower price that balances out for us as a business with monetization from ads, that's a legitimate need to get to all the great content that we're making.

我不 - 我不會說哪個會更大或更好。我認為它們在很多方面是互補的。我們看到的是有許多不同的需求，對吧？為您想與之共享該服務的人支付 Netflix 費用，這是合法的需求。創造一個更低的價格來平衡我們作為一個從廣告中獲利的企業，這是獲取我們正在製作的所有精彩內容的合理需求。

So I just think of this as a range of options that try to speak to a range of different consumer needs, the right price points, the right feature set. And we're really just trying to do a better job at expanding that range so that we can serve more consumers on the planet in the right way.

所以我只是認為這是一系列選項，試圖滿足一系列不同的消費者需求、正確的價格點、正確的功能集。我們真的只是想在擴大範圍方面做得更好，以便我們能夠以正確的方式為地球上的更多消費者提供服務。

Okay. Spence, maybe you could talk a little bit just about the decision to no longer provide guidance on subscribers starting next quarter.

好的。 Spence，也許你可以談談從下個季度開始不再為訂戶提供指導的決定。

Sure. Spencer, do you want to take that one? Or...

當然。斯賓塞，你想拿那個嗎？或者...

Sure. Happy to take it. I appreciate the question, Doug. So maybe just to start, focusing on subscribers in our early days was helpful. But now that we have such a wide range of price points, different partnerships all over the world, economic impact of any given subscriber can be quite different. And that's particularly true if you're trying to compare our business with other streaming services. So that's why we've been increasingly focused on revenue as our primary top line metric, as you've heard us talk about over the last several years. And this is going to be, I think, even more important as we head into 2023 and we develop new revenue streams like advertising and paid sharing, where membership growth is only one aspect of the revenue picture.

當然。很高興接受它。我很欣賞這個問題，道格。所以也許只是開始，在我們早期關注訂閱者是有幫助的。但是現在我們擁有如此廣泛的價格點，在世界各地擁有不同的合作夥伴關係，任何給定用戶的經濟影響可能會大不相同。如果您嘗試將我們的業務與其他流媒體服務進行比較，則尤其如此。這就是為什麼我們越來越關注收入作為我們的主要收入指標，正如您在過去幾年中聽到我們談論的那樣。我認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年，這將變得更加重要，我們會開發新的收入來源，如廣告和付費分享，而會員增長只是收入情況的一個方面。

So just to be clear, we will continue to report our global membership every quarter when we release earnings as well as the paid net adds. We'll also continue to disclose our regional membership, as we do today. And in terms of our revenue guidance, you should expect that we'll give you some color on the underlying drivers of the revenue forecast, but we just won't provide a pinpoint paid net adds figure per se. And then lastly, we'll continue to provide guidance for all the other metrics, Doug, that we do today, namely revenue, operating income, operating margin, net income, EPS and share count. So in the grand scheme of things, pretty minor change.

因此，為了明確起見，我們將在每個季度發布收益以及付費淨增加時繼續報告我們的全球會員。我們還將像今天一樣繼續披露我們的區域成員資格。就我們的收入指導而言，你應該期望我們會給你一些關於收入預測的潛在驅動因素的顏色，但我們不會提供一個精確的付費淨增加數字本身。最後，我們將繼續為我們今天所做的所有其他指標 Doug 提供指導，即收入、營業收入、營業利潤率、淨收入、每股收益和股票數量。因此，從總體上看，變化很小。

Okay. That's great. That's helpful. If we look at the 4Q guide, 4% operating margin, it's heavily impacted by FX pressures. I think it's 10% ex FX and, I guess, on a year-over-year basis, kind of up from 8%. Maybe you can just talk about some of the factors there. Is there anything fundamental in terms of the business that's kind of perhaps weighing there a little bit more on 4Q margins? Or is it kind of all FX?

好的。那太棒了。這很有幫助。如果我們看一下第四季度的指引，即 4% 的營業利潤率，它受到外匯壓力的嚴重影響。我認為這是 10% ex FX，而且我想，與去年同期相比，略高於 8%。也許你可以談談那裡的一些因素。就業務而言，是否有任何基本因素可能對第四季度的利潤率產生更多影響？還是全是FX？

It's really all FX, Doug, as you said. I mean year-over-year, FX neutral, constant currency, we're actually up at a -- we'd be at 10% margin versus 8% prior 4Q. So it's -- the FX drag is significant. We mentioned in the letter, if we look at our -- you can do the math on our 4 quarters now. When you kind of roll it out to a full year number, we're still holding to what we're calling FX neutral to the beginning of the year, January 1 of this year, to that 19% to 20% margin range. FX neutral, you can -- you'll see it's -- it actually is in the mid to higher end of that range.

正如你所說，這真的都是 FX，Doug。我的意思是，與去年同期相比，外匯中性，不變貨幣，我們實際上上漲了 - 我們的利潤率為 10%，而第四季度前為 8%。所以它 - 外匯拖累是顯著的。我們在信中提到，如果我們看看我們的 - 你現在可以計算我們的 4 個季度。當您將其推廣到全年數字時，我們仍將我們所謂的外匯中性保持在今年年初，即今年 1 月 1 日，保持在 19% 至 20% 的保證金範圍內。外匯中性，你可以 - 你會看到它 - 它實際上處於該範圍的中高端。

But on a reported basis, it's just a little over 17%. So there's about 2.5 points of FX drag in our margin. That equates to about -- it's about $1 billion of revenue drag, about $800 million of margin drag. And the bulk of that is being felt in the fourth quarter as it's built up through the year.

但據報導，這一比例略高於 17%。所以我們的保證金中有大約 2.5 個點的外匯阻力。這大約相當於——大約 10 億美元的收入拖累，大約 8 億美元的利潤拖累。隨著全年的積累，大部分都在第四季度感受到。

Okay. And then I guess maybe you can just talk about cash content spending. Just to confirm, it sounds like you're kind of reiterating the same thing around the $17 billion type of level going forward. What does that mean for free cash flow generation over these next few years?

好的。然後我想也許你可以談談現金內容支出。只是為了確認一下，聽起來你在重申同樣的事情，圍繞著未來 170 億美元的水平。這對未來幾年的自由現金流產生意味著什麼？

Yes. So as you said, it's -- we're kind of maintaining the guidance that we had. We think the $17 billion is about the right ZIP code, plus or minus, to spend as we're -- based on our current revenue trajectory.

是的。所以正如你所說，它是 - 我們有點維持我們的指導。根據我們目前的收入軌跡，我們認為 170 億美元是正確的郵政編碼，無論是正數還是負數，都可以按照我們的方式消費。

As Ted said, as we hope and expect to reaccelerate revenue, we'll revisit those spend levels. But for now, given all those learnings that Ted mentioned, we think we can deliver more member value per dollar of content spend than we have in the past. So we expect our content slate to get better and better each quarter and each year over the next couple of years.

正如 Ted 所說，正如我們希望並期望重新加速收入一樣，我們將重新審視這些支出水平。但就目前而言，鑑於 Ted 提到的所有這些學習，我們認為我們可以為每美元內容支出提供比過去更多的會員價值。因此，我們希望我們的內容在接下來的幾年中每個季度和每年都會變得越來越好。

And the way that then translates to cash flow for this year, we're maintaining our roughly $1 billion of free cash flow guide, plus or minus a couple of hundred million. There's always movement at the end of the year for timing and then next year for that free cash flow to substantially improve beyond that. So we expect it to be materially above the roughly $1 billion this year. We won't put a specific guide out now, but it will be significantly larger.

然後轉化為今年現金流的方式，我們維持大約 10 億美元的自由現金流指導，上下浮動幾億。年底總會有時間安排，然後明年自由現金流會大幅改善。因此，我們預計它今年將大大高於約 10 億美元。我們現在不會發布具體的指南，但它會更大。

Doug, we have time for about 2 last questions, please.

道格，我們有時間回答最後 2 個問題。

Okay. Reed, so you talked about -- according to Nielsen, right, streaming time now surpasses both broadcast and cable. And of course, Netflix has played a major role here in driving that transition. What does this next period of streaming look like, in your view? Clearly more competitive, more ad supported, but how else do you think it evolves?

好的。里德，所以你談到了——根據尼爾森的說法，對，流媒體時間現在超過了廣播和有線電視。當然，Netflix 在推動這一轉變方面發揮了重要作用。在您看來，下一段流媒體會是什麼樣子？顯然更具競爭力，更多廣告支持，但你認為它會如何發展？

That's a great question, Doug. I mean, clearly, us and Disney are investing heavily and will be 2 big brands in the premium space. YouTube is very strong on connected TVs, so they will continue to grow. I think depending on how Sunday Ticket lands at some -- Apple, Amazon, somewhere else, you'll start to see a bunch of people focus on sports and bringing that over to on-demand.

這是一個很好的問題，道格。我的意思是，很明顯，我們和迪士尼正在大力投資，並將成為高端領域的兩個大品牌。 YouTube 在聯網電視方面非常強大，因此它們將繼續增長。我認為取決於週日票如何在蘋果、亞馬遜或其他地方登陸，你會開始看到一群人專注於體育並將其帶入點播。

And then think of how mobile telephony just slowly replaced fixed-line telephony, and that was even before smartphones, right, just on the convenience. And you're just going to see it grow every year for many years ahead and makes TV a lot more convenient, more enjoyable.

然後想想移動電話是如何慢慢取代固定電話的，那是在智能手機之前，對，只是方便。你會看到它在未來的很多年裡每年都在增長，讓電視變得更方便、更有趣。

And smart TV now costs less than a mobile phone. It doesn't have a battery. It's got a smaller processor. It's easier to manufacture. So smart TVs are getting ubiquitous and lower cost. There was the supply chain slowdowns, but generally, I think you'll see around the world smart TV is continuing to get to every home in the world that has a TV. So that's all very positive vector.

而且現在智能電視的成本比手機還低。它沒有電池。它有一個更小的處理器。它更容易製造。因此，智能電視變得無處不在，成本也越來越低。供應鏈放緩，但總的來說，我認為你會看到世界各地的智能電視繼續進入世界上每個擁有電視的家庭。所以這都是非常積極的向量。

So again, think of it on basically pretty steady every year climbing share and then a lot of us battling it out for do we have the best content in the world, do we have the best suggestions in the world, the lowest prices, all the classic competitive dynamics. So we're pretty excited about this next phase, which is competitive excellence. And it's straight-ahead execution, if we can just be better than everybody else, and we're pretty driven with that.

再說一遍，想想它每年基本上都在穩步攀升，然後我們很多人都在為我們是否擁有世界上最好的內容而奮鬥，我們是否有世界上最好的建議，最低的價格，所有的經典的競爭動態。所以我們對下一個階段感到非常興奮，那就是卓越的競爭。如果我們能比其他人做得更好，那就是直接執行，我們對此非常有動力。

Okay. So to close out, I'm not going to ask you about 4Q content, but I'd like to ask each of you the single most important thing for you and your teams to accomplish in your respective roles over the next 12 to 24 months. And I'll leave it to you guys to -- for whatever order you'd like.

好的。所以最後，我不會問你們關於 4Q 的內容，但我想問你們每個人，在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內，你們和你們的團隊在各自的角色中完成的最重要的事情.我會把它留給你們——無論你想要什麼順序。

I'll go first. I mean for me, it's the overall direction of what we're doing and that there's kind of clear context for everyone that if we execute down this particular path well, then we're going to win. So that's very exciting, and we're on target for that.

我先走。我的意思是，對我來說，這是我們正在做的事情的總體方向，並且每個人都有明確的背景，如果我們沿著這條特定的道路很好地執行，那麼我們就會贏。所以這非常令人興奮，我們正朝著這個目標前進。

And Doug, we have to continue to deliver enormous quality and scale. The volume of releasing that we're doing, it's not that we're putting out so much content, just dumping the content into the world. Actually, we're trying to super serve hundreds of millions of people with individual tastes and individual relationships with content and to do that at scale, something that's never been done before. And we continue to kind of sharpen the tools to deliver on that every -- not just for the next 12, 24 months, but for the foreseeable future. And -- but I think this time right now is just as important as it ever has been.

還有道格，我們必須繼續提供巨大的質量和規模。我們正在做的發布量，並不是我們發布了這麼多內容，只是將內容傾銷到世界上。實際上，我們正在努力為數億具有個人品味和個人關係的人提供超級服務，並大規模地做到這一點，這是以前從未做過的事情。我們將繼續改進工具以實現這一目標——不僅僅是在接下來的 12 個月、24 個月，而是在可預見的未來。而且——但我認為現在這個時間和以往一樣重要。

Doug, for me, I'll have 2 suggestions. So one is, as you've heard us say, we want to build a really big but also a very profitable business. So in our role in corporate strategy and planning, we want to help the company build and refine the muscle around big profits over time? And then secondly, we've been doing more M&A over the last year or so, so again, just getting better and better at that in terms of integration and making sure those deals live up to the expectation.

道格，對我來說，我有兩個建議。因此，正如您聽到我們所說，我們想要建立一個非常大但也非常有利可圖的業務。因此，在我們在公司戰略和規劃中的角色中，我們是否希望隨著時間的推移幫助公司建立和完善圍繞巨額利潤的力量？其次，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們一直在進行更多的併購，所以再一次，在整合方面做得越來越好，並確保這些交易達到預期。

Yes. And I'll, I guess, add to Spencer's point is we're really in kind of that support role and in finance and operations across the company, so helping to really scale and mature the combination of creative excellence and operational excellence in our support roles and support our ability to become a truly and increasingly global company around the world with increasing kind of financial discipline to get more and more of that dollar of spend on to the screen for the enjoyment of our members.

是的。我想，我想補充一下 Spencer 的觀點，我們確實在整個公司的財務和運營中扮演了這種支持角色，因此在我們的支持中幫助真正擴展和成熟創意卓越和卓越運營的結合角色並支持我們成為一家真正的、日益全球化的公司的能力，通過越來越多的財務紀律，將越來越多的美元花在屏幕上，讓我們的會員享受。

And Doug, I'll cheat and give you 2. I mean tactically, we are sprinting at ads, and it's been super fun to see teams engaged and doing incredible work to make that happen in such a short time. But behind the scenes, we're doing amazing stuff on improving the -- what we call the choosing experience, which is the content discovery and recommendations and all the things that essentially I think takes all the work that Ted's teams do and tries to magnify the value of that for the users we have around the world. And sometimes those things are subtle because they sort of happen behind the covers, if you will. But every quarter that we see improvements there, I know we're doing a good job for our members around the world.

還有道格，我會作弊並給你 2。我的意思是在戰術上，我們正在衝刺廣告，看到團隊參與並做出令人難以置信的工作以在如此短的時間內實現這一目標非常有趣。但在幕後，我們在改進我們所說的選擇體驗方面做著驚人的事情，即內容髮現和推薦以及我認為基本上需要 Ted 團隊所做的所有工作並試圖放大的所有事情這對我們在世界各地的用戶的價值。有時這些事情很微妙，因為如果你願意的話，它們會發生在幕後。但是每個季度我們看到那裡的改進，我知道我們為世界各地的會員做得很好。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

Thanks, Doug. And since you didn't ask, I'm going to take another couple of seconds to tell you about Q4 anyway.

謝謝，道格。既然你沒有問，我將再花幾秒鐘時間告訴你關於第四季度的信息。

Okay. Go for it.

好的。去吧。

The Watcher is already turning out to be enormous. We have returning season of The Crown, Emily in Paris, Manifest, Dead to Me, Firefly Lane, Ginny & Georgia, an origin story from the world of Witcher. We have an incredible new action series starring Noah Centineo called The Recruit. We have Tim Burton's television directorial debut with Wednesday. We have a new series from Guillermo del Toro called Cabinet of Curiosities. And from around the world, our -- some of our most successful shows like Alice in Borderland and Barbarians and Elite are back for new seasons too, all just in Q4.

觀察者已經證明是巨大的。我們有《王冠》、《艾米麗在巴黎》、《清單》、《對我死去》、《螢火蟲巷》、《金妮和喬治亞》的回歸季節，這是一個來自巫師世界的起源故事。我們有一個令人難以置信的新動作系列，由 Noah Centineo 主演，名為 The Recruit。我們在星期三有蒂姆伯頓的電視導演處女作。我們有一個來自 Guillermo del Toro 的新系列，叫做“好奇內閣”。來自世界各地，我們最成功的一些節目，比如《無主之地的愛麗絲》和《野蠻人與精英》，也都在第 4 季度回歸了新一季。

So let me say, first and foremost, we have a lot of work to do to continue to reaccelerate revenue. We're really happy with our levels of engagement, the number of hit series and films that we're able to put to our members at prices that they think are a phenomenal value in these strained economic times. And we're growing even in those strained economic times and with the extraordinary levels of competition out there for streaming dollars and for hours of viewing.

所以讓我說，首先，我們還有很多工作要做，以繼續加速收入增長。我們對我們的參與度、熱播劇集和電影的數量感到非常滿意，我們能夠以他們認為在當前經濟緊張時期具有驚人價值的價格提供給我們的會員。即使在那些經濟緊張的時期，我們也在增長，並且在流媒體收入和觀看時間方面競爭異常激烈。

We stood up an ad product. In 6 months with this -- and with the tremendous demand on that product and with a great partnership with Microsoft and with Greg Peters and his phenomenal team that runs that effort, our Basic with Ads tier is going to help us open up Netflix to a whole new audience of folks who are attracted to all that great content at an even lower price point.

我們站了一個廣告產品。在 6 個月內，由於對該產品的巨大需求，以及與微軟、Greg Peters 和他出色的團隊的良好合作關係，我們的 Basic with Ads 層將幫助我們將 Netflix 開放給全新的觀眾，他們以更低的價格被所有精彩內容所吸引。

In Q4, we look forward to bringing this incredible slate to everybody and as we continue to grow in this world of film and television and games, which we believe that the future of television, of films and games is streaming. And we're working hard to continue to grow our lead in this area while we continue to bring healthy returns. And we can only do that by bringing the shows, the films and games that people love. So wait till you see Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and wait till you see the new season of The Crown, and you'll know just what I'm talking about.

在第 4 季度，我們期待將這個令人難以置信的片單帶給所有人，並且隨著我們在這個電影、電視和遊戲世界中繼續發展，我們相信電視、電影和遊戲的未來是流媒體。我們正在努力繼續擴大我們在這一領域的領先地位，同時繼續帶來健康的回報。我們只能通過帶來人們喜愛的節目、電影和遊戲來做到這一點。所以等到你看到 Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery，等到你看到 The Crown 的新一季，你就會知道我在說什麼。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。