Netflix Inc (NFLX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Netflix Q3 2022 Earnings Interview. I'm Spencer Wang, VP of Finance, IR and Corporate Development. Joining me today are Co-CEO, Reed Hastings; Co-CEO and Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos; COO and Chief Product Officer, Greg Peters; and CFO, Spence Neumann. Our interviewer this quarter is Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.

下午好，歡迎參加 Netflix 2022 年第三季財報訪談。我是 Spencer Wang，財務、投資人關係與企業發展副總裁。今天與我一起的還有聯合首席執行官里德·哈斯廷斯 (Reed Hastings)；聯合首席執行官兼首席內容官 Ted Sarandos；首席營運官兼首席產品官 Greg Peters；和首席財務官斯賓塞·諾伊曼 (Spence Neumann)。本季我們的訪談者是摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

As a reminder, we will be making forward-looking statements, and actual results may vary. With that, let's jump into it. Doug, over to you for your first question.

提醒一下，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能會有所不同。有了這些，我們就開始吧。道格，第一個問題交給你了。

Great. Thanks, Spencer. And great to see all of you, and thanks for having me join you again today.

偉大的。謝謝，史賓塞。很高興見到你們，感謝你們今天再次邀請我加入你們。

So let's jump in with advertising. Obviously, a lot of discussion here heading into the launch. You announced details for the new Basic with Ads tier last week launching in the U.S. and 11 other markets. Can you help us understand how you arrived at the price point and the product features for Basic with Ads?

那麼就讓我們開始做廣告吧。顯然，在發布之前這裡已經進行了很多討論。您上週宣布了在美國和其他 11 個市場推出的全新「帶廣告基本版」的詳細資訊。您能否幫助我們了解您是如何確定「帶廣告的基本版」的價格點和產品功能的？

Yes, Doug. So a lot of what we're thinking in terms of setting pricing for Basic with Ads and how we think about pricing in general anchors on what's the value that we're delivering consumers. We're trying to work very hard to translate the dollars that they give us and do incredible shows. And you can see sort of in Q3 some great examples of the series that we're delivering there, the films were delivering there and that the Q4 slate looks incredible as well.

是的，道格。因此，我們在為帶有廣告的基本服務設定價格時所考慮的許多問題以及我們對整體定價的看法都取決於我們為消費者提供的價值。我們正在努力將他們給予我們的錢轉化為精彩的演出。您可以在第三季度看到我們在那裡推出的一些精彩系列，電影也在那裡上映，而且第四季度的計劃看起來也非常棒。

And then specifically with regard to ads, we modeled out essentially what we think the expected revenue is on a variety of different countries that we're launching in to make sure that in a combination of the subscription price that we're charging for Basic with Ads plus that anticipated monetization, we'd be roughly, call it, unit economics-wise, revenue positive to neutral. And then when we look at them, the fact that we think that this lower price will -- consumer basic price will bring in a lot more members, then we're quite confident in the long term that this will lead to a significant incremental revenue and profit stream.

然後具體到廣告方面，我們基本上模擬了我們認為在我們將要推出的各個不同國家/地區的預期收入，以確保結合我們對包含廣告的基本訂閱價格以及預期的貨幣化，我們大致可以稱之為單位經濟學方面的收入為正到中性。然後，當我們審視它們時，我們認為較低的價格——消費者基本價格將會吸引更多的會員，因此，我們非常有信心，從長遠來看，這將帶來顯著的增量收入和利潤流。

Okay. And I guess just to clarify there, when you talk about kind of getting neutral and perhaps more accretive over time, how -- what are you comparing that to on a unit economic basis that's essentially more to the basic tier?

好的。我想澄清一下，當您談到隨著時間的推移變得中性並且可能更具增值性時，您將其與本質上更接近基本層的單位經濟基礎進行比較嗎？

Yes. It may be relevant to note that we don't see a lot of members switching plans. So oftentimes, when they come in and they select the plan for a given feature, let's say, that's the 4K resolution, we see that to be a pretty sticky choice. And so when we're thinking about unit economics being neutral to positive, we're really comparing to the like feature set in the Basic without ads.

是的。值得注意的是，我們並沒有看到很多會員更換方案。因此，很多時候，當他們進來並選擇針對特定功能的計劃時，比如說 4K 分辨率，我們認為這是一個非常棘手的選擇。因此，當我們考慮單位經濟效益是中性還是正值時，我們實際上是在與沒有廣告的基本版中的類似功能集進行比較。

Okay. Okay. Great. So maybe you could talk a little bit about what gives you confidence in that advertising arm and how would you frame advertiser demand thus far. I know Jeremi last week talked about having hundreds of advertisers on board and add inventory almost sold out.

好的。好的。偉大的。那麼，也許您可以談談是什麼讓您對該廣告部門充滿信心，以及您迄今為止如何看待廣告商的需求。我知道傑雷米上週談到有數百名廣告商加入並且庫存幾乎售罄。

Yes. We started with a bunch of models that were informed by obviously the ad activities in those different countries around the world. But now we're in the point where we get to take those models and we get to bring them actually to advertisers and sort of see what's working in practice. And it's been great to see both our partner in Microsoft and their sales team as well as our small-but-crack ad sales team in actual action with brands and with agencies working through that.

是的。我們從一系列模型開始，這些模型顯然是根據世界各地不同國家的廣告活動得出的。但現在，我們正處於採用這些模型並將它們實際帶給廣告商並觀察其實際效果的階段。我們很高興看到我們的合作夥伴微軟及其銷售團隊以及我們小而精銳的廣告銷售團隊與品牌和代理商進行實際合作。

And I would say that the initial demand that we're seeing is very strong. So people are very excited about the proposition of bringing their brands and their ads to a bunch of consumers around the world that are watching our shows. They're excited about the positioning against the incredible content and the titles that we have. And so that demand has been very, very strong. And so we're seeing sort of a lot of the expectations that we built into our models come through in that actual sales process. So that's great.

我想說的是，我們看到的初始需求非常強勁。因此，人們對將他們的品牌和廣告帶給觀看我們節目的全球眾多消費者的提議感到非常興奮。他們對於我們擁有的令人難以置信的內容和標題的定位感到非常興奮。因此，需求非常非常強勁。因此，我們看到，我們在模型中建構的許多期望在實際的銷售過程中得到了實現。這太棒了。

I think it's also worth noting, though, that we're very much in the walk -- a crawl-walk-run kind of model that we talked about before we're sort of iteratively improving. And so we're building in a lot of capabilities over the next couple of quarters that we think are important to advertisers to make that advertising offering increasingly attractive and sort of check a bunch of boxes that they have. You might have seen the verification partners that we announced. That's a pretty good example of that. But we've got a lot more on that road map to go do that we're excited about delivering for brands.

不過，我認為值得注意的是，我們目前處於步行階段——一種我們之前討論過的爬行-步行-跑步的模型，我們正在進行某種迭代改進。因此，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中建立許多我們認為對廣告商很重要的功能，以使廣告產品越來越有吸引力，並滿足他們的一系列要求。您可能已經看到了我們公佈的驗證合作夥伴。這是一個很好的例子。但我們在路線圖上還有很多事情要做，我們很高興能夠為品牌提供這些服務。

Okay. So in terms of those capabilities targeting, obviously, very important here as well. I think you've talked about having broad targeting by country and genre and, I think, within the top 10 shows. And I believe you also asked for age and gender at the time of sign-up as well. Early feedback from marketers and agencies has been that the targeting options at launch are fairly limited. What's your view on that? And how will that targeting evolve over time?

好的。因此，就這些能力定位而言，顯然在這裡也非常重要。我認為您已經談到了按國家和類型進行廣泛定位，我認為是在前 10 名節目內。我相信您在註冊時也詢問了年齡和性別。行銷人員和代理商的早期回饋是，發佈時的定位選項相當有限。您對此有何看法？隨著時間的推移，這種目標定位將如何演變？

Yes. Again, I think we're starting -- part of what we want to do is actually get this out to market quickly. And you could see we went from basically the point we announced it to delivering it in about 6 months, which has been a testament to a lot of hard work on internal teams and to Microsoft. But we do have relatively basic targeting capabilities in terms of contextual targeting, genre, et cetera. But that's sort of consistent with what we see with television as well, right?

是的。再說一次，我認為我們已經開始了——我們想要做的部分工作實際上是將其快速推向市場。您可以看到，我們從宣佈到交付大約花了 6 個月的時間，這證明了內部團隊和微軟的大量辛勤工作。但我們在情境定位、類型等方面確實具備相對基本的定位能力。但這也與我們在電視上看到的一致，對嗎？

And obviously, now our job is to move from that into more of what we expect from a digital world, where we have 100% signed-in audience, fully addressable, fully targetable, and so we can start to layer in additional targeting capabilities over time. I think it's also worth noting when we talk about that, that we're very cognizant of privacy, and we want to make that paramount and how we think about this offering. And all of the data that we use will just be used to basically deliver more relevant ads offering on Netflix, and we're not using that data in any way, shape or form for a profile building off Netflix or anything like that.

顯然，現在我們的工作是從這一點轉向我們對數位世界的更多期望，在那裡我們擁有 100% 的登入受眾，完全可尋址，完全可定位，因此我們可以隨著時間的推移開始分層添加額外的定位功能。我認為，當我們談論這個問題時，也值得注意的是，我們非常清楚隱私，我們希望將隱私放在首位，並考慮我們如何看待這項服務。我們使用的所有數據基本上都只是用於在 Netflix 上提供更相關的廣告，我們不會以任何方式、形式使用這些數據來建立 Netflix 個人資料或類似的東西。

Okay. There's been a lot of discussion in the press about CPMs that are really 2 to 3x those of CTV or other AVOD players. Is that accurate? And what justifies the much higher pricing for Netflix?

好的。媒體上有很多關於 CPM 的討論，其實際 CPM 是 CTV 或其他 AVOD 播放器的 2 到 3 倍。這樣準確嗎？那麼，Netflix 的定價為何如此高呢？

I'm not going to comment on any specific pricing, but I would just say that I think we've got a very attractive offering. And that's a combination of the audience that we have, that we're delivering to, that oftentimes it's hard to access in other ways, certainly harder to access in traditional TV in many cases. And it's a result of the incredible content that we've got. So Ted's team is doing an amazing job at producing titles that advertisers want to be next to. And so that's, I think, what you see is driving the demand and the pricing that we can get.

我不會對任何特定的價格發表評論，但我只想說，我認為我們提供的產品非常有吸引力。這是我們擁有的觀眾群體和我們服務的對象，透過其他方式很難接觸到他們，在許多情況下，透過傳統電視更難接觸到他們。這是我們擁有的令人難以置信的內容的結果。因此，泰德的團隊在製作廣告商想要關注的標題方面做得非常出色。所以，我認為，這就是您所看到的推動需求和我們可以獲得的定價的因素。

Okay. You've talked in the past about wanting the ad offering to be innovative and somewhat different over time. If we think about the range of 4 to 5 minutes of ads per hour, it's certainly lower. You've talked about tight frequency capping. What else do you think is innovative at least in the initial offering? And then how does that evolve more over time?

好的。您過去曾談到希望廣告能夠持續創新，並隨著時間的推移而有所不同。如果我們考慮每小時 4 到 5 分鐘的廣告範圍，這個數字肯定會更低。您談到了嚴格的頻率限制。您認為至少在首次發行時還有哪些創新之處？那麼隨著時間的推移，它會如何進一步發展？

Yes. As you noted, we want to start with an experience that's very pro-consumer, consumer centric. And so that's definitely informed both our ad load and thinking about the frequency capping. What I love about those things is the more we talk to brands and advertisers, there's actually a high degree of alignment between sort of what their desires are and what we think is great for consumers. So they're enthusiastic about not having high frequency caps and having sort of -- a sort of more unique offering there. And also, limited ad loads sets their ads apart more distinctly. So I think I love that alignment to begin with.

是的。正如您所說，我們希望從一個非常有利於消費者、以消費者為中心的體驗開始。因此，這肯定會影響我們的廣告負載和頻率上限的考慮。我喜歡這些事情的原因是，我們與品牌和廣告商交流得越多，就越能發現他們的願望和我們認為對消費者有利的東西之間的高度一致性。因此，他們熱衷於不設定高頻上限，並提供更獨特的產品。此外，有限的廣告負載使他們的廣告更加與眾不同。所以我認為我首先喜歡這種一致性。

And then over time, we're going to access a bunch of the capabilities that you've seen us leverage over the last 10 years to think about innovation in the space. So personalization, I think, is a great example where we don't need to think about the ads experience as being uniform across all of our members. And we think about we can leverage the personalization capability that we've built in terms of titles and how we present titles and also in terms of how we present ads. So I think that's an exciting dimension that we're going to work on as well.

隨著時間的推移，我們將利用過去 10 年中我們利用的一系列能力來思考該領域的創新。所以我認為個人化是一個很好的例子，我們不需要考慮所有會員的廣告體驗是否一致。我們認為，我們可以利用我們在標題、標題呈現方式以及廣告呈現方式方面所建立的個人化功能。所以我認為這也是一個我們將要努力的令人興奮的領域。

And additionally, we're also excited to work with sort of partners and our advertisers to think about what is that ads experience, the ad format that is really best suited for premium connected TV. And we're starting with meeting the market where it's at today. That's important to access sort of all the capabilities they've got, but we don't need to stay there. And I think we're looking forward to, over a couple of years, understanding what is the right native format for premium connected TV and figuring out what that looks like.

此外，我們也很高興與合作夥伴和廣告商一起思考什麼是廣告體驗，什麼是最適合高階連網電視的廣告格式。我們首先要滿足當今市場的現狀。這對於獲取他們所擁有的所有能力來說很重要，但我們不需要停留在那裡。我認為，我們期待在未來幾年內了解優質連網電視的正確原生格式，並弄清楚它是什麼樣子。

Doug, I might just add also just part of the innovation was just, for us, the business innovation of speed to market. As Greg said, getting from announced to launched within 6 months and to doing so in every region in which we operate, so 12 markets that represent well over half of our revenue today, so part of it is just that nimbleness and speed which hopefully will bring to our innovation path going forward as well.

道格，我還要補充一點，對我們來說，創新的一部分就是加快上市速度的商業創新。正如格雷格所說，從宣佈到推出只花了 6 個月的時間，並且在我們運營的每個地區都實現了這一目標，所以這 12 個市場佔了我們目前收入的一半以上，所以部分原因就是靈活性和速度，希望這也能為我們未來的創新之路帶來好處。

Okay. In terms of subscribers, how do you think about just this concept of kind of new net adds versus trade-down from existing subs on the Basic with Ads tier? It's obviously a pretty frequent discussion with investors.

好的。就訂閱用戶而言，您如何看待新增訂閱用戶與從帶有廣告的基礎版現有訂閱用戶中降級訂閱用戶的概念？這顯然是與投資者經常討論的問題。

Yes. Again, I think it's important just to reiterate that we don't see a lot of plan switching on the existing plan set. So that's, I think, a worthwhile point to note. And then obviously, as we stated before, we're not really trying to steer our members to one plan or another. We're trying to take a pro-consumer approach and sort of let them find and land on the right plan for them.

是的。再次強調，我認為有必要重申，我們沒有看到現有計畫發生太多的轉變。所以我認為這是一個值得注意的點。顯然，正如我們之前所說，我們並不是真的試圖引導我們的成員採取某個計劃。我們正在嘗試採取一種有利於消費者的方式，並讓他們找到並製定適合他們的正確計劃。

And as we stated, we modeled out that expected performance on ad monetization and factor that into our thinking around price point for the Basic with Ads. And so we really anticipate that this is going to be a pro-consumer model that will be more attractive, bring more members in because the consumer basic price is low. But then again, the economics and the revenue will be fine as a result even if some of those consumers switch plans. And again, just to restate this, when you factor in those extra members, we expect this leads to a significant and incremental revenue and profit stream.

正如我們所說，我們模擬了廣告貨幣化的預期表現，並將其納入我們對帶廣告基礎版價格點的考慮中。因此，我們確實預期這將是一個更具吸引力的親消費者模式，由於消費者基本價格低廉，它將吸引更多的會員。但話又說回來，即使部分消費者更換計劃，經濟效益和收入仍然很好。再次重申一下，當你將這些額外的會員納入考量時，我們預計這將帶來可觀的增量收入和利潤流。

And how do you think about the impact in terms of reducing churn and perhaps how that plays out across some of the different markets given different characteristics and levels of penetration?

您如何看待減少客戶流失的影響？考慮到不同的市場特徵和滲透水平，這在不同市場中將如何發揮作用？

Yes. I think generally, what we've seen is that, obviously, lower price helps with churn. And so I think that there'll be some positive dynamics there. But again, we really -- we're in early days now, and we've got to launch this thing and we'll learn so much more over the months to come.

是的。我認為總體而言，我們看到的是，較低的價格顯然有助於減少客戶流失。所以我認為那裡會出現一些積極的動態。但是，我們真的——我們現在還處於早期階段，我們必須推出這個產品，並且在接下來的幾個月裡我們會學到更多。

Again, so much of that is tied to engagement. I mean the best way to reduce churn is to keep them entertained.

再次強調，這很大程度與參與度有關。我的意思是減少客戶流失的最佳方法就是讓他們保持娛樂。

Right. Right, which you've clearly done in this past quarter. And we'll talk more about that in a minute, Ted. At the Code Conference last month, Sundar said that the Netflix-Microsoft ad deal is one of the biggest ad deals ever. Are there any particular components of the deal that give you confidence in the advertising revenue outlook here and how it compares to subscription over time?

正確的。對，你在過去這個季度顯然已經做到了這一點。泰德，我們稍後會詳細討論這個問題。在上個月的 Code 大會上，Sundar 表示 Netflix 與微軟的廣告交易是有史以來最大的廣告交易之一。這筆交易中是否存在一些特定內容讓您對這裡的廣告收入前景充滿信心，以及它與訂閱業務相比如何？

Well, one of the big factors for us in picking Microsoft is that we felt like we were highly strategically aligned. They had an approach that was similar to ours, which is that we want to launch and then learn quickly and iterate quickly and that there was a lot of flexibility both in terms of innovation around the formats and approaches that we just talked about. Partly, it was a lot of flexibility in thinking about how do we leverage the combined go-to-market capability that Microsoft has a lot of right now and that we have very little but we're going to build over time.

嗯，我們選擇微軟的一個重要因素是，我們覺得自己在策略上高度一致。他們的方法與我們的方法類似，即我們希望推出產品，然後快速學習并快速迭代，並且在我們剛才談到的格式和方法的創新方面具有很大的靈活性。在某種程度上，我們在思考如何利用微軟目前擁有的、而我們擁有的很少但會隨著時間的推移而建立的綜合市場進入能力時具有很大的靈活性。

And frankly, when I see the demand that we're in right now, we're stretched between the 2 teams to really support all that. So I'm actually excited about our ability to grow that capacity on the Microsoft side that I think they're going to do some hiring and building and we're going to do some hiring and building and then, through that joint capacity growth, be able to better serve more advertisers, which we can't even -- actually, we're turning some folks away right now because we just don't have the go-to-market capacity to serve everyone.

坦白說，當我看到我們現在的需求時，我們在兩個團隊之間展開工作以真正支持所有這些需求。因此，我實際上對我們在微軟方面擴大產能的能力感到非常興奮，我認為他們會進行一些招聘和建設，我們也會進行一些招聘和建設，然後通過聯合產能增長，能夠更好地服務更多的廣告商，而我們甚至不能——實際上，我們現在正在拒絕一些人，因為我們沒有足夠的市場能力來服務所有人。

And Doug, at that same conference, Bob Iger said that linear TV was going off a cliff.

道格，在同一次會議上，鮑勃·伊格爾表示線性電視正在走向衰落。

He did.

他做到了。

And what we -- or what I underappreciated was just the impact on advertisers. They're just being able to reach fewer people. And then the 18 to 49 demographic is even faster than the decline in pay TV. So this is what is really fueling the cycle is that really collapse of linear TV as an advertising vehicle outside of a few properties like sports.

而我們——或者說我低估了的只是對廣告商的影響。他們只是能夠接觸到更少的人。而 18 至 49 歲年齡層的人口下降速度甚至比付費電視的下降速度還要快。因此，真正加劇這一惡性循環的原因是，除了體育等少數廣告形式之外，線性電視作為廣告載體的地位實際上已經崩潰。

So Reed, maybe that just brings up the question -- and for you as well, Greg. I mean when you're going out to agencies and marketers, do you really -- do you feel like you're going after linear TV dollars? Or are you going after digital dollars right now?

所以里德，也許這只是提出了一個問題——對你來說也是如此，格雷格。我的意思是，當你與代理商和行銷人員接觸時，你真的——你覺得自己在追求有線電視的收入嗎？或者您現在正在追求數位美元？

Yes. I'd say when you look at the capabilities of our -- the current offering that we have as a publisher, I think we're mostly competitive with linear right now. Obviously, I think that we'll build into that over time. And a lot of what makes digital attractive will be part of our offering as we go.

是的。我想說，當你看到我們作為出版商目前提供的產品的能力時，我認為我們現在最能與線性產品競爭。顯然，我認為我們會隨著時間的推移逐漸實現這一點。隨著我們不斷前進，許多讓數位技術更具吸引力的元素將成為我們提供的產品的一部分。

Obviously, I think when you think about sort of demand capture and those direct response ads versus sort of the more brand side, we're probably going to be leaning for some time more into that brand side of things, where we can be more competitive. But I think those worlds are going to blur over time realistically. And our job is to be highly competitive with the components, the technical components that we can add in, in terms of targeting, et cetera, but also then be very competitive because we have really incredible content and an incredible audience that advertisers want to connect with.

顯然，我認為，當你考慮某種需求捕獲和那些直接反應廣告與品牌方面時，我們可能會在一段時間內更傾向於品牌方面，這樣我們才能更具競爭力。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，這些世界實際上會變得模糊。我們的工作是利用我們可以添加的組件和技術組件，在目標定位等方面保持高度競爭力，但同時也要保持很強的競爭力，因為我們擁有真正令人難以置信的內容和廣告商想要聯繫的令人難以置信的受眾。

Okay. And Spence, in terms of ad revenue, it feels like it should be very high margin. Maybe you can just talk about some of the key costs or investments in running the ad business given that Microsoft is responsible for the bulk of that sales for now.

好的。史賓塞，就廣告收入而言，感覺利潤率應該很高。鑑於微軟目前佔據了廣告業務的大部分銷售額，也許您可以談論經營廣告業務的一些關鍵成本或投資。

Yes, I'd agree with you, Doug. Again, we need to build this out over time. As Greg said, on a unit economic basis, we feel good that this will be kind of net neutral to positive out of the gate. And then when you add in the incrementality on subscribers, we think we can build a big incremental revenue and profit streams.

是的，我同意你的看法，道格。再次強調，我們需要隨著時間的推移逐步完善這個體系。正如格雷格所說，從單位經濟角度來看，我們感覺這將是一種淨中性到正值的成長。然後，當您新增訂閱者的增量時，我們認為我們可以建立一個巨大的增量收入和利潤流。

So there are some costs. Obviously, there's some cost to our partnership with Microsoft. There's some cost of building out our side of the internal team to kind of build out our capabilities with Jeremi and Peter and then, obviously, some other costs here and there.

所以會有一些成本。顯然，我們與微軟的合作需要一些代價。我們與傑里米和彼得一起組建內部團隊來增強我們的能力需要花費一些成本，當然，還有一些其他成本。

But overall, I'm not going to get into specifics, but we believe this can be margin accretive over -- certainly margin accretive over time. It's going to be pretty small out of the gate. It's kind of reflected in our Q4 guidance. As you can see, it's an intra-quarter launch, and we're not expecting any material financial impact in this first kind of partial quarter but will build over time, and it will be additive to the business.

但總的來說，我不會談論具體細節，但我們相信隨著時間的推移，利潤肯定會增加。它的規模一開始會很小。這在我們的第四季指引中有所體現。正如您所看到的，這是一次季度內推出的產品，我們預計在第一個部分季度中不會產生任何實質性的財務影響，但會隨著時間的推移而逐漸增加，並且會對業務產生附加作用。

Okay. Great. All right. So for the record, we're not hitting subscriber numbers until about 15 minutes in here. So -- but you added 2.4 million subs in the third quarter. You're expecting 4.5 million in 4Q. Maybe you can just kind of walk us through how you're feeling about core subscriber growth before you kind of get into the dynamics in '23 around advertising and paid sharing.

好的。偉大的。好的。因此，根據記錄，我們直到 15 分鐘後才達到訂閱用戶數量。所以——但你在第三季增加了 240 萬訂閱者。您預計第四季銷售將達到 450 萬。在深入探討 23 年廣告和付費分享的動態之前，您可以先跟我們講講您對核心用戶成長的看法。

Well, thank God, we're done with shrinking quarters. That's a big feeling of -- we're back to the positivity. Obviously, this quarter and the guidance for Q4 are reasonable, not fantastic but reasonable. And then we got to pick up the momentum.

好吧，感謝上帝，我們已經完成了縮小宿舍的問題。這是一種很強烈的感覺——我們又恢復了積極性。顯然，本季和第四季的預期是合理的，雖然不是太好，但也很合理。然後我們必須加快步伐。

Everything the company is focused on, whether that's on the content side, on marketing, lowering prices to the ad supported, the paid sharing, the thoughtful approach we're doing there lines us up for a good next year. We still got FX, so that's a huge hit, as we've explained. So that's not going to go away. But other than that, all the stars are lining up very well for us.

公司所關注的一切，無論是內容方面、行銷方面、降低廣告支援的價格、付費分享，我們所做的周到的方法都為我們明年的良好發展奠定了基礎。我們仍然擁有 FX，因此，正如我們所解釋的那樣，這是一個巨大的打擊。所以它不會消失。但除此之外，一切順利。

Spence, do you want to add to that?

史賓塞，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Reed, no, you're doing my job for me, which is great. I appreciate that. But yes, we're -- as Reed said, we're not -- we're still not growing as fast as we'd like. So we're building momentum, we're pleased with our progress, but we know we've got a lot more work to do.

是的。里德，不，你在為我做我的工作，這很好。我很感激。但是，是的，正如里德所說，我們並沒有——我們的成長速度還沒有達到我們所希望的水平。因此，我們正在積聚動力，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，但我們知道還有很多工作要做。

We're pleased with Q3. We saw acquisition growth a bit more than we had in the past few quarters, which is great across every region. Churn remained, yes, slightly elevated, kind of similar to where we were at the end of Q2. But overall, when you combine those 2 things, we delivered paid net adds of 2.4 million, which is a little bit above our guide, so we kind of under forecast there, obviously.

我們對第三季感到滿意。我們看到收購成長比過去幾季略有成長，這在各個地區都是好事。是的，客戶流失率仍然略有上升，與第二季末的水平類似。但總體而言，當你將這兩件事結合起來時，我們實現了 240 萬的付費淨增值，這略高於我們的預期，因此顯然我們低估了這一點。

And then for Q4, as we talked about and as Reed talked about and you mentioned, we're guiding to 4.5 million paid net adds. Reflected in that guide is what we talked about. We're off to a nice start. I'm sure Ted will talk about the strength of the content slate. We started with Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story and into The Watcher and others that are building. So it's a strong seasonal quarter.

對於第四季度，正如我們、里德和您提到的那樣，我們預計付費淨增用戶數將達到 450 萬。該指南反映了我們所討論的內容。我們的開始很好。我確信泰德會談論內容的優勢。我們從《怪物：傑弗瑞·達默的故事》開始，然後是《觀察者》和其他正在創作的作品。所以這是一個強勁的季節性季度。

But some of those revenue accelerators that we know we're focused on in the near term, whether it's ads, we just talked a bunch about that. There's not going to be -- we don't expect at least a big financial impact in this first launch quarter. And we also -- as we talked about in the letter, we have a solution that we'll be rolling out in '23 for paid sharing and monetizing all that unpaid viewing we've been talking about. But again, that doesn't even start rolling out until early '23.

但我們知道，我們近期將重點放在一些收入加速器，無論是廣告，我們剛才都談了很多。不會有—我們預計至少在第一個發布季度不會產生重大的財務影響。而且，正如我們在信中提到的那樣，我們有一個解決方案，我們將在 23 年推出，用於付費共享和將我們一直在談論的所有免費觀看貨幣化。但同樣，這項措施直到 23 年初才開始實施。

And there's some other near-term limiters to our growth. There's -- take currency out, we still have -- penetrating the connected TV market and the sales cycle there. We got competition. We've got some macro strain, whether it's higher inflation, energy prices and some of the geopolitical strain around the world.

還有一些其他的短期成長限制因素。除去貨幣，我們仍然在滲透連網電視市場和那裡的銷售週期。我們遇到了競爭對手。我們面臨一些宏觀壓力，例如通貨膨脹率上升、能源價格上漲以及世界各地的地緣政治壓力。

So all those things are factored into our guide. It's a little bit less visibility than we typically would see. But overall, we feel really good that we're building that momentum. We've set a path to the growth. You're seeing growth in paid net adds both in actuals for Q3 and into the guide to Q4 and, most importantly, a path to accelerate revenue growth and hit the ground running in '23.

所以所有這些因素都已納入我們的指南中。它的可見度比我們通常看到的要低一些。但總體而言，我們對正在形成的這種勢頭感到非常高興。我們已經設定了成長道路。您會看到付費淨增值在第三季的實際數字和第四季的指南中都有所成長，最重要的是，這是一條加速收入成長並在 23 年迅速發展的途徑。

Okay. Great. You had your 2 biggest English language series ever, I think, in the span of 3 to 4 months with Stranger Things 4 and Dahmer. Do you believe the content cadence is becoming more normalized to your post-pandemic? And how much of a factor were those titles in driving 3Q subs and now more momentum into the fourth quarter?

好的。偉大的。我認為，你們在短短 3 到 4 個月內推出了有史以來最大的兩部英語系列劇：《怪奇物語 4》和《達默》。您是否認為疫情過後，內容節奏會變得更正常化？這些影片對於推動第三季訂閱量以及第四季的強勁成長起到了多大作用？

Look, big shows that folks engage with and talk about drives a lot of growth. I do think it's -- people come to value that. And for us, our goal is we've got to get them to come to expect it. So right after they finish something great that they love, that there's an expectation that there's something right behind it.

你看，人們參與和談論的大型演出推動了很多成長。我確實認為——人們開始重視這一點。對我們來說，我們的目標是讓他們對此有所期待。因此，當他們完成一件他們喜歡的偉大的事情後，就會期待它背後還有什麼可以實現的。

So you described it pretty nicely. You come out of Stranger Things Season 4, you roll right into a big movie like Gray Man or a movie that you fall in love with like Purple Hearts or a great animated feature like Sea Beast. Then you go with that and you roll right into Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. And then right out of that, I mean, back-to-back hits from Ryan, going right into The Watcher. So I think it's -- that cadence is something I do think we're getting better at as we get more and more mature in our creation of original content. Remember, Doug, we've only been at it for 10 years.

所以你描述得非常好。看完《怪奇物語》第四季後，你會立刻進入一部像《灰人》這樣的大電影，或是一部你愛上的電影，像是《紫心勳章》，或是一部像《海獸》這樣的精彩動畫片。然後你繼續下去，你就進入了怪物：傑弗裡·達默的故事。然後就從那裡開始，我的意思是，瑞恩連續擊中，直接進入守望者。所以我認為——隨著我們在原創內容創作方面變得越來越成熟，我確實認為我們會在節奏方面做得更好。記住，道格，我們才堅持了 10 年。

And the other thing...

還有一件事...

Ted, maybe just...

泰德，也許只是…

Go ahead, Reed, sorry.

繼續吧，里德，抱歉。

Ted, maybe just talk a little about the smoothing of content monthly, kind of what state we're at this year, what you think we can get to next year sort of easing out of that COVID concentration.

泰德，也許您可以稍微談談每月內容的平滑度，例如我們今年的狀況，您認為明年我們可以達到什麼程度，以緩解 COVID 的集中程度。

Yes, COVID got a lot of content jammed up in the later parts of the year, and that impact rolls out and rolls out because even when people are getting back to normal work, they were all working on those projects during COVID. So it takes -- it will take several years to completely unwind the COVID logjam.

是的，由於新冠疫情，今年下半年的許多內容都被堵塞了，這種影響會不斷擴大，因為即使人們恢復了正常工作，在新冠疫情期間，他們都在從事這些項目。因此，徹底解決新冠疫情僵局需要幾年時間。

And historically, Q4 tends to be a little heavier than Q1 and Q2 mostly because of the historical legacy of the fall TV series and the fall film cycles with film festivals and award cycles and all those things that are kind of unnatural to viewers watching. So we're trying to be more and more aggressive about smoothing that out to make sure that the content is available when people are ready to watch it.

從歷史上看，第四季度的票房往往比第一季和第二季要重一些，主要是因為秋季電視劇和秋季電影週期的歷史遺留問題，包括電影節和頒獎週期，以及所有這些對觀眾來說有點不自然的事情。因此，我們正在嘗試更加積極地解決這個問題，以確保當人們準備觀看時，內容是可用的。

And just to add to that, it's really kind of smoothing it out across all of our content categories, so there's always something great to watch whatever your mood or taste. And even just to build on Ted's point, it's not just kind of the English language titles. And I'm sorry if I missed some of what he said, but even if you think of the last -- in this last quarter, whether it's every region, Sintonia in Brazil, The Empress in Germany, High Water in Poland, Narco-Saints in Korea, more and more of those big local titles with big local impact as well that can -- that also have the ability to travel. So it's really kind of getting that cadence in every country and region around the world.

除此之外，它確實使我們的所有內容類別更加平滑，因此無論您的心情或品味如何，總有一些精彩的內容可供觀看。甚至只是為了鞏固泰德的觀點，它不僅僅是一種英文標題。如果我遺漏了他所說的一些內容，我很抱歉，但即使你想想最後一個季度，無論是在每個地區，巴西的《罪惡之城》、德國的《皇后》、波蘭的《高水》、韓國的《毒梟》，越來越多的大型本地影片在當地產生了巨大影響，它們也具有旅行的能力。因此，世界上每個國家和地區都真正達到了這樣的節奏。

And probably none was a better example of this go-around than Extraordinary Attorney Woo from Korea. 400 million hours of watching around the world, just a real phenomenon that we can take a show that other folks would view as being extraordinarily Korean and make it work around the world.

而可能沒有人比來自韓國的傑出律師吳 (Woo) 更能說明這一點。全球有 4 億小時的收看時長，這是一個真實的現象，我們可以把一部在其他人看來非常具有韓國特色的節目推廣到世界各地。

Okay. Ted, there's a lot of discussion just around the philosophy around content. And I guess the question is, is there a process or selectivity changing at all in terms of the greenlighting of content? Does it need to?

好的。泰德，關於內容哲學的討論很多。我想問題是，在內容審核方面，流程或選擇性是否有改變？有必要嗎？

Look, the -- let me go back to what I was saying earlier. We started this about 10 years ago. We had no IP. We had no library. We moved as quickly as we could to build a library of our own IP and to build our own library. And in those 10 years, that library now gets more viewing, more revenue and more profit than all of our competitors who've been at it for over 100.

瞧，——讓我回到我之前所說的話。我們大約 10 年前就開始做這件事了。我們沒有 IP。我們沒有圖書館。我們盡可能快地建立我們自己的 IP 庫並建立我們自己的庫。在這 10 年裡，圖書館的瀏覽量、收入和利潤都超過了我們所有經營了 100 多年的競爭對手。

So when I look at that and think, okay, along the way, we probably made a lot of mistakes, and we learned a lot. So today, when I think about what we learned today, we've kind of developed a lot stronger skill sets and partnerships and processes to ensure quality of delivery and working with our creators and to give them the tools to deliver for the audience, some things that are fairly proprietary and some things that just benefit from the scale of our business so that they can really do what we want to do, which is please audiences.

所以當我回顧這一切並思考時，好吧，一路走來，我們可能犯了很多錯誤，也學到了很多東西。所以今天，當我思考我們今天學到的東西時，我們已經開發出更強大的技能、合作夥伴關係和流程，以確保交付品質並與我們的創作者合作，並為他們提供為觀眾交付的工具，有些東西是相當專有的，有些東西只是受益於我們的業務規模，以便他們能夠真正做我們想做的事情，那就是取悅觀眾。

And you've got to remember, as we go, to do that, it isn't just making prestige shows in English. It's also making a very kind of pop culture television across every genre, across every format imaginable. And in doing that, that's the thing that I think we can bring scale and creativity and audience connectivity that others can't compete with. So for me, that's the biggest thing that when you say do we -- are we sharpening our tools, are we getting better, we're definitely getting more mature about the process.

你必須記住，我們要做到這一點，而不僅僅是用英語製作有聲望的節目。它還製作了一種跨越所有類型、所有可以想像的形式的流行文化電視節目。透過這樣做，我認為我們可以帶來其他人無法比擬的規模、創造力和觀眾連結。所以對我來說，當你說我們是否在磨練我們的工具，我們是否在變得更好，我們在這個過程中是否變得更加成熟時，這是最重要的事情。

And then if you go all the way back to the beginning of time, we didn't have any staff who had any experience in creating original anything on Netflix. So we built that up to where we're at today, which is in the last quarter, we've released 7 of our most popular releases of all time just in this last quarter.

如果你追溯到最初，你會發現我們沒有任何員工具有在 Netflix 上創作原創作品的經驗。因此，我們將其發展到今天的水平，也就是上個季度，僅在上個季度，我們就發布了有史以來最受歡迎的 7 個版本。

Okay. Great. You talked last quarter about content spend staying kind of flattish around $17 billion or so number in annual cash spending. So I realize that, that's up this year when you kind of take out the incremental COVID costs from last year. But does the discipline around content spending push you to do anything differently? And I guess, what's your confidence that you can deliver both the quantity and also the quality of content that you want within that number across all regions?

好的。偉大的。您上個季度談到內容支出在年度現金支出中保持平穩，約為 170 億美元左右。所以我意識到，如果扣除去年新增的 COVID 成本，今年的支出就增加了。但是內容支出方面的紀律是否會促使您採取不同的做法？我想問一下，您有信心在所有地區提供您想要的數量和質量的內容嗎？

Look, I think what we're seeing, Doug, is that both the scope and scale as well as the range and the cadence of hits is improving. So that -- I feel better and better about that $17 billion of content spend because what we have to do is be better and better at getting more impact per $1 billion spend than anybody else. And that's how we're focusing on it. So I think we're about the right -- we're spending at about the right level. And as we reaccelerate revenue, we'll revisit that number, of course, but we're a pretty disciplined bunch about that.

聽著，道格，我認為我們看到的是，打擊的範圍和規模以及範圍和節奏都在提高。所以——我對這 170 億美元的內容支出感覺越來越好，因為我們要做的就是比其他任何人都更好地利用每 10 億美元支出產生更大的影響。這就是我們關注的重點。所以我認為我們的支出大致正確——我們的支出處於正確的水平。當然，隨著我們收入的重新成長，我們會重新審視這個數字，但我們對此非常自律。

Okay. The Knives Out sequel, Glass Onion, so pretty highly anticipated, you're going to release it in a limited number of theaters, I think, for a week around Thanksgiving before hitting Netflix, I believe, on December 23. But there also seems to have been a push to perhaps run it for a longer period of time in theaters. So maybe you can just talk about some of the debate there, what the rationale is to just do it for 1 week and how do you think that, that kind of release will drive viewership on Netflix.

好的。 《利刃出鞘》的續集《玻璃洋蔥》備受期待，你們將在感恩節前後在少數幾家影院上映一周，然後在 12 月 23 日登陸 Netflix。但似乎也有人希望延長它在戲院的上映時間。所以也許您可以談談那裡的一些爭論，只播出一周的理由是什麼，以及您認為這種播出方式將如何推動 Netflix 的收視率。

Well, first, I'll tell you we're in the business of entertaining our members with Netflix movies on Netflix. So that's where we focus all of our energy and most of our spend. Our films are always heavily featured in film festivals around the world because they're in demand, made by the greatest filmmakers on the planet. And for all those folks who can't get to a city where a festival is, this 1-week release on 600 screens is a way of creating access to the film and building buzz, the same thing we're doing in those festivals. So I would look at this as just another way to build anticipation for the film and build buzz and reputation for the film ahead of its Netflix release.

好吧，首先，我要告訴你，我們的業務是透過 Netflix 上的 Netflix 電影為我們的會員提供娛樂。因此，我們將全部精力和大部分開支集中在那裡。我們的電影總是在世界各地的電影節上受到大力推崇，因為它們很受歡迎，而且是由世界上最偉大的電影製作人製作的。對於那些無法前往電影節舉辦城市的人來說，在 600 塊銀幕上進行為期一周的放映是一種讓觀眾接觸電影、製造轟動效應的方式，就像我們在那些電影節上所做的那樣。因此，我認為這只是在 Netflix 上映之前為電影營造期待感、建立知名度和聲譽的另一種方式。

There's all kinds of debates all the time back and forth, but there is no question internally that we make our movies for our members, and we really want them to watch them on Netflix. And of course, with 1 week of release in theaters, most people will see them on Netflix, just like they see all movies. Most people watch most movies at home. So we think that there's plenty of -- and I think this particular release sits somewhere between that week we have to run movies to qualify for awards and the time that we run them in a film festival and the time that we travel them around, but it's a way of condensing that into a louder event.

雖然一直存在各種各樣的爭論，但內部毫無疑問的是，我們為會員製作電影，並且我們真的希望他們在 Netflix 上觀看。當然，在影院上映一周後，大多數人會在 Netflix 上觀看它們，就像他們看所有電影一樣。大多數人在家裡看大多數電影。所以我們認為有很多——而且我認為這次特別的發布介於我們必須放映電影以獲得獎項資格的那一周、我們在電影節上放映它們的時間以及我們到處巡演它們的時間之間，但這是一種將其濃縮為更熱鬧的活動的方式。

Got it. Okay. Pretty clear. Let's shift gears a little bit, talk about paid sharing. You announced profile transfer yesterday, which facilitates nonpaying members shifting their recommendations and history and other settings to a new account. Maybe you can talk about how this is a potential precursor to having borrowers kind of become either having their own accounts or adding to an existing member and just how we should think about timing of the rollout there.

知道了。好的。非常清楚。讓我們稍微換個話題，談談付費分享。您昨天宣布了個人資料轉移，這有助於非付費會員將他們的推薦、歷史記錄和其他設定轉移到新帳戶。也許您可以談談這是否是藉款人擁有自己的帳戶或加入現有會員的潛在先兆，以及我們應該如何考慮推出服務的時機。

Sure. The profile transfer, I mean, supports a couple of different use cases, right? I mean there's obviously situations where you can imagine like you have a kid at home who is going to go off and become an adult and get their own account, and it supports those ones. But it does enable a key thing that we learned around how we think about paid sharing. And we've been working really hard to try and find essentially a balanced position and approach towards this one that supports customer choice and, frankly, a long history of customer centricity that we think has informed how we think about establishing our service but balancing that with making sure that as a business, we're sort of getting paid when we're delivering entertainment value to consumers.

當然。我的意思是，設定檔傳輸支援幾種不同的用例，對嗎？我的意思是，顯然你可以想像這樣的情況，例如你家裡有一個孩子，他要長大成人並擁有自己的帳戶，而它支持這些情況。但它確實讓我們了解到了關於如何看待付費共享的一個關鍵知識。我們一直在努力嘗試尋找一個本質上平衡的立場和方法，支持客戶的選擇，坦白說，我們認為長期以來以客戶為中心的理念影響了我們如何思考如何建立我們的服務，但要平衡這一點，確保作為一家企業，當我們為消費者提供娛樂價值時，我們會獲得報酬。

And as we try to deal with pretty much all of our product changes where we can, we try and -- try different approaches and listen to our members and use their reactions to help us understand what's working and what's not working. So we've tried a couple of different approaches in different countries. You saw that. And based on the customer feedback that we're getting, we sort of landed on an approach towards paid sharing that we think strikes that balance.

當我們嘗試處理幾乎所有可能的產品變化時，我們嘗試不同的方法，傾聽我們成員的意見，並利用他們的反應來幫助我們了解哪些有效，哪些無效。因此，我們在不同的國家嘗試了幾種不同的方法。你看到了。根據我們收到的客戶回饋，我們確定了一種我們認為能夠實現平衡的付費分享方式。

And a key component of that is the ability for borrowers, people that are using somebody else's account right now to access Netflix, to be able to create their own separate account. And part of that is transferring their profile and their viewing history and all the great information that basically informs hopefully great recommendations for them. And we think that, that sort of separate account path will be especially attractive in countries where we're launching that lower-priced Basic with Ads plan. That lower price obviously makes that more attractive.

其中一個關鍵要素是藉款人（即現在使用他人帳戶存取 Netflix 的人）能夠建立自己的獨立帳戶。其中一部分是傳輸他們的個人資料和觀看歷史記錄以及所有重要信息，希望這些信息基本上能為他們提供很好的建議。我們認為，這種單獨的帳戶路徑在我們推出低價「帶廣告的基本計劃」的國家尤其具有吸引力。較低的價格顯然使其更具吸引力。

Another component of this, though, is allowing account owners to be able to pay for Netflix for some friend or family, somebody they want to share the service with. And so they're able to create a sub-account, which we're calling extra member, to enable that model, too. So we're trying to come up with a range of options that supports customer choice, balances those considerations but also ensures that we've got a sustainable business model that allows us to invest in more of that great entertainment that Ted's team has always focused on for all of our members. So we're looking forward to getting that out in early '23.

不過，它的另一個組成部分是允許帳戶所有者為一些他們想與之共享服務的朋友或家人支付 Netflix 費用。因此，他們也可以建立一個子帳戶（我們稱之為額外成員）來啟用該模型。因此，我們試圖提出一系列支持客戶選擇的選項，平衡這些考慮因素，同時也確保我們擁有可持續的商業模式，使我們能夠投資更多優秀的娛樂項目，這也是 Ted 團隊一直致力於為所有會員提供的。因此，我們期待在 23 年初推出該產品。

And do you think extra member and kind of new accounts, could that be bigger than advertising in 2023 for Netflix?

您是否認為額外的會員和新帳號會比 Netflix 在 2023 年的廣告收入更大？

I don't -- I won't say which would be bigger or better. I think they're complementary in many ways. And what we're seeing is that there's a number of different needs, right? Paying for Netflix for somebody that you want to share that service with, that's a legitimate need. Creating a lower price that balances out for us as a business with monetization from ads, that's a legitimate need to get to all the great content that we're making.

我不會——我不會說哪一個更大或更好。我認為它們在很多方面是互補的。我們看到的是存在許多不同的需求，對嗎？為想要與之共享 Netflix 服務的人付費，這是合理的需求。制定一個較低的價格來平衡我們作為企業透過廣告獲利的局面，這是我們獲得所有精彩內容的合理需求。

So I just think of this as a range of options that try to speak to a range of different consumer needs, the right price points, the right feature set. And we're really just trying to do a better job at expanding that range so that we can serve more consumers on the planet in the right way.

所以我只是認為這是一系列的選擇，試圖滿足一系列不同的消費者需求、合適的價格點和合適的功能集。我們實際上只是想更好地擴大這個範圍，以便我們能夠以正確的方式服務地球上更多的消費者。

Okay. Spence, maybe you could talk a little bit just about the decision to no longer provide guidance on subscribers starting next quarter.

好的。斯賓塞，也許您可以稍微談論從下個季度開始不再為訂戶提供指導的決定。

Sure. Spencer, do you want to take that one? Or...

當然。史賓塞，你想拿那個嗎？或者...

Sure. Happy to take it. I appreciate the question, Doug. So maybe just to start, focusing on subscribers in our early days was helpful. But now that we have such a wide range of price points, different partnerships all over the world, economic impact of any given subscriber can be quite different. And that's particularly true if you're trying to compare our business with other streaming services. So that's why we've been increasingly focused on revenue as our primary top line metric, as you've heard us talk about over the last several years. And this is going to be, I think, even more important as we head into 2023 and we develop new revenue streams like advertising and paid sharing, where membership growth is only one aspect of the revenue picture.

當然。很開心收到。我很感謝你提出這個問題，道格。因此，也許一開始就關注訂閱者是有幫助的。但現在我們的價格範圍如此廣泛，在世界各地都有不同的合作夥伴，任何特定用戶的經濟影響都可能大不相同。如果您嘗試將我們的業務與其他串流媒體服務進行比較，這一點尤其正確。因此，正如您在過去幾年中聽到我們談論的那樣，我們越來越關注收入作為我們的主要收入指標。我認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年並開發廣告和付費分享等新的收入來源，這一點將變得更加重要，而會員成長只是收入圖景的一個面向。

So just to be clear, we will continue to report our global membership every quarter when we release earnings as well as the paid net adds. We'll also continue to disclose our regional membership, as we do today. And in terms of our revenue guidance, you should expect that we'll give you some color on the underlying drivers of the revenue forecast, but we just won't provide a pinpoint paid net adds figure per se. And then lastly, we'll continue to provide guidance for all the other metrics, Doug, that we do today, namely revenue, operating income, operating margin, net income, EPS and share count. So in the grand scheme of things, pretty minor change.

因此，需要明確的是，我們將繼續在每個季度發布收益和付費淨增值時報告我們的全球會員數量。我們也將繼續揭露我們的地區會員資格，就像今天所做的那樣。就我們的收入指引而言，您應該期望我們會為您提供一些有關收入預測的根本驅動因素的信息，但我們不會提供精確的付費淨增值數字。最後，道格，我們將繼續為今天所做的所有其他指標提供指導，即收入、營業收入、營業利潤率、淨收入、每股收益和股票數量。因此從總體上看，這是一個很小的變化。

Okay. That's great. That's helpful. If we look at the 4Q guide, 4% operating margin, it's heavily impacted by FX pressures. I think it's 10% ex FX and, I guess, on a year-over-year basis, kind of up from 8%. Maybe you can just talk about some of the factors there. Is there anything fundamental in terms of the business that's kind of perhaps weighing there a little bit more on 4Q margins? Or is it kind of all FX?

好的。那太棒了。這很有幫助。如果我們看一下第四季的指引，4%的營業利潤率受到外匯壓力的嚴重影響。我認為扣除外匯因素後，增幅為 10%，而年增幅則略高於 8%。也許您可以談談其中的一些因素。從業務角度來看，是否存在一些基本因素可能會對第四季度的利潤率產生更大的影響？或者說這全是 FX 的東西？

It's really all FX, Doug, as you said. I mean year-over-year, FX neutral, constant currency, we're actually up at a -- we'd be at 10% margin versus 8% prior 4Q. So it's -- the FX drag is significant. We mentioned in the letter, if we look at our -- you can do the math on our 4 quarters now. When you kind of roll it out to a full year number, we're still holding to what we're calling FX neutral to the beginning of the year, January 1 of this year, to that 19% to 20% margin range. FX neutral, you can -- you'll see it's -- it actually is in the mid to higher end of that range.

正如你所說，這確實都是 FX，Doug。我的意思是，與去年同期相比，以外匯中性、固定匯率計算，我們的利潤率實際上是上升了——我們的利潤率為 10%，而第四季之前為 8%。因此，外匯拖累十分顯著。我們在信中提到，如果我們看一下——你現在就可以計算出我們的 4 個季度。當你將其推廣到全年數字時，我們仍然堅持所謂的外匯中性，即今年年初（1 月 1 日）的 19％ 至 20％ 的利潤率範圍。外匯中性，您可以 - 您會看到 - 它實際上處於該範圍的中高端。

But on a reported basis, it's just a little over 17%. So there's about 2.5 points of FX drag in our margin. That equates to about -- it's about $1 billion of revenue drag, about $800 million of margin drag. And the bulk of that is being felt in the fourth quarter as it's built up through the year.

但據報道，這一比例僅略高於 17%。因此，我們的利潤率大約受到外匯拖累 2.5 點。這相當於——約 10 億美元的收入損失，約 8 億美元的利潤損失。其中大部分在第四季度顯現，因為這種影響是全年累積的。

Okay. And then I guess maybe you can just talk about cash content spending. Just to confirm, it sounds like you're kind of reiterating the same thing around the $17 billion type of level going forward. What does that mean for free cash flow generation over these next few years?

好的。然後我想也許您可以談談現金內容支出。只是為了確認一下，聽起來您好像在重申未來 170 億美元水平的相同的事情。這對於未來幾年的自由現金流產生意味著什麼？

Yes. So as you said, it's -- we're kind of maintaining the guidance that we had. We think the $17 billion is about the right ZIP code, plus or minus, to spend as we're -- based on our current revenue trajectory.

是的。正如你所說，我們正在維持我們已有的指導方針。我們認為，根據我們目前的收入軌跡，170 億美元左右是合適的支出金額。

As Ted said, as we hope and expect to reaccelerate revenue, we'll revisit those spend levels. But for now, given all those learnings that Ted mentioned, we think we can deliver more member value per dollar of content spend than we have in the past. So we expect our content slate to get better and better each quarter and each year over the next couple of years.

正如泰德所說，當我們希望並期望重新增加收入時，我們將重新審視這些支出水準。但就目前而言，考慮到泰德提到的所有這些經驗教訓，我們認為我們可以為會員提供比過去更高的每美元內容支出價值。因此，我們預計未來幾年我們的內容每季、每年都會變得越來越好。

And the way that then translates to cash flow for this year, we're maintaining our roughly $1 billion of free cash flow guide, plus or minus a couple of hundred million. There's always movement at the end of the year for timing and then next year for that free cash flow to substantially improve beyond that. So we expect it to be materially above the roughly $1 billion this year. We won't put a specific guide out now, but it will be significantly larger.

然後將其轉化為今年的現金流，我們將維持約 10 億美元的自由現金流指導，並上下浮動數億美元。每年年底總會有時間上的變動，而明年自由現金流將會大幅改善。因此我們預計今年的金額將大幅超過約 10 億美元。我們現在不會發布具體的指南，但它的規模將會更大。

Doug, we have time for about 2 last questions, please.

道格，我們還有時間回答最後兩個問題。

Okay. Reed, so you talked about -- according to Nielsen, right, streaming time now surpasses both broadcast and cable. And of course, Netflix has played a major role here in driving that transition. What does this next period of streaming look like, in your view? Clearly more competitive, more ad supported, but how else do you think it evolves?

好的。里德，所以你談到了——根據尼爾森的調查，串流媒體的時間現在超過了廣播和有線電視。當然，Netflix 在推動這一轉變過程中發揮了重要作用。您認為下一個串流媒體時代將會是什麼樣的？顯然競爭更加激烈，廣告支援力道更大，但您認為它還會如何發展？

That's a great question, Doug. I mean, clearly, us and Disney are investing heavily and will be 2 big brands in the premium space. YouTube is very strong on connected TVs, so they will continue to grow. I think depending on how Sunday Ticket lands at some -- Apple, Amazon, somewhere else, you'll start to see a bunch of people focus on sports and bringing that over to on-demand.

這是一個很好的問題，道格。我的意思是，顯然我們和迪士尼正在大力投資，並將成為高端領域的兩大品牌。 YouTube 在連網電視方面實力雄厚，因此將持續成長。我認為，根據 Sunday Ticket 在蘋果、亞馬遜或其他地方的落地情況，你會開始看到很多人專注於運動並將其轉變為按需服務。

And then think of how mobile telephony just slowly replaced fixed-line telephony, and that was even before smartphones, right, just on the convenience. And you're just going to see it grow every year for many years ahead and makes TV a lot more convenient, more enjoyable.

然後想想行動電話是如何慢慢取代固定電話的，那甚至是在智慧型手機出現之前，就其便利性而言。你將會看到它在未來的許多年裡每年都在成長，並使電視變得更加方便、更有趣。

And smart TV now costs less than a mobile phone. It doesn't have a battery. It's got a smaller processor. It's easier to manufacture. So smart TVs are getting ubiquitous and lower cost. There was the supply chain slowdowns, but generally, I think you'll see around the world smart TV is continuing to get to every home in the world that has a TV. So that's all very positive vector.

現在智慧電視的價格比手機還便宜。它沒有電池。它的處理器更小。它更容易製造。因此，智慧電視變得越來越普及，而且成本也越來越低。雖然供應鏈有所放緩，但總體而言，我認為你會看到全球智慧電視正在繼續進入每個擁有電視的家庭。所以這都是非常積極的向量。

So again, think of it on basically pretty steady every year climbing share and then a lot of us battling it out for do we have the best content in the world, do we have the best suggestions in the world, the lowest prices, all the classic competitive dynamics. So we're pretty excited about this next phase, which is competitive excellence. And it's straight-ahead execution, if we can just be better than everybody else, and we're pretty driven with that.

所以，再想想看，基本上每年的份額都在穩步上升，然後我們很多人都在爭奪我們是否擁有世界上最好的內容，我們是否擁有世界上最好的建議，最低的價格，所有典型的競爭動態。因此，我們對下一階段，即競爭卓越階段感到非常興奮。如果我們能比其他人做得更好，那麼這就是直接的執行，我們對此非常有動力。

Okay. So to close out, I'm not going to ask you about 4Q content, but I'd like to ask each of you the single most important thing for you and your teams to accomplish in your respective roles over the next 12 to 24 months. And I'll leave it to you guys to -- for whatever order you'd like.

好的。最後，我不會問你們關於第四季度的內容，但我想問你們每個人，在未來 12 到 24 個月內，你們和你們的團隊在各自的角色中要完成的最重要的一件事是什麼。我將把它留給你們——按照你們想要的順序來做。

I'll go first. I mean for me, it's the overall direction of what we're doing and that there's kind of clear context for everyone that if we execute down this particular path well, then we're going to win. So that's very exciting, and we're on target for that.

我先走了。對我來說，這是我們正在做的事情的總體方向，每個人都有一個明確的背景，如果我們沿著這條特定的道路很好地執行，那麼我們就會贏。這非常令人興奮，我們正在朝著這個目標努力。

And Doug, we have to continue to deliver enormous quality and scale. The volume of releasing that we're doing, it's not that we're putting out so much content, just dumping the content into the world. Actually, we're trying to super serve hundreds of millions of people with individual tastes and individual relationships with content and to do that at scale, something that's never been done before. And we continue to kind of sharpen the tools to deliver on that every -- not just for the next 12, 24 months, but for the foreseeable future. And -- but I think this time right now is just as important as it ever has been.

道格，我們必須繼續提供高品質和規模的產品。我們發布的內容量並不是說我們發布了太多內容，而只是將內容傾倒到世界各地。實際上，我們正​​在嘗試為數億具有不同個人品味和個人內容關係的人提供優質服務，並大規模地做到這一點，這是以前從未做過的事情。我們將繼續改進工具，以實現這一目標——不僅是在未來 12、24 個月，而且是在可預見的未來。而且——但我認為現在這個時候和以往任何時候一樣重要。

Doug, for me, I'll have 2 suggestions. So one is, as you've heard us say, we want to build a really big but also a very profitable business. So in our role in corporate strategy and planning, we want to help the company build and refine the muscle around big profits over time? And then secondly, we've been doing more M&A over the last year or so, so again, just getting better and better at that in terms of integration and making sure those deals live up to the expectation.

道格，對我來說，我有 2 個建議。因此，正如您所聽到的，我們想要建立一個真正龐大但又非常有利可圖的企業。那麼，在製定企業策略和規劃的過程中，我們希望幫助公司逐步建立和完善獲得巨額利潤的能力？其次，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們進行了更多的併購，因此，在整合方面，我們做得越來越好，並確保這些交易符合預期。

Yes. And I'll, I guess, add to Spencer's point is we're really in kind of that support role and in finance and operations across the company, so helping to really scale and mature the combination of creative excellence and operational excellence in our support roles and support our ability to become a truly and increasingly global company around the world with increasing kind of financial discipline to get more and more of that dollar of spend on to the screen for the enjoyment of our members.

是的。我想補充一下斯賓塞的觀點，我們實際上扮演著支持角色，並在整個公司的財務和運營中發揮作用，因此，我們幫助真正擴大和完善我們支持角色中卓越的創造力和卓越的運營的結合，並支持我們成為一家真正的、日益全球化的公司，通過不斷加強的財務紀律，將越來越多的資金投入到屏幕上，供我們的會員享用。

And Doug, I'll cheat and give you 2. I mean tactically, we are sprinting at ads, and it's been super fun to see teams engaged and doing incredible work to make that happen in such a short time. But behind the scenes, we're doing amazing stuff on improving the -- what we call the choosing experience, which is the content discovery and recommendations and all the things that essentially I think takes all the work that Ted's teams do and tries to magnify the value of that for the users we have around the world. And sometimes those things are subtle because they sort of happen behind the covers, if you will. But every quarter that we see improvements there, I know we're doing a good job for our members around the world.

道格，我作弊給你 2 分。我的意思是，從戰術上講，我們正在全力衝刺廣告，看到團隊參與並在如此短的時間內做出令人難以置信的工作來實現這一目標，真是太有趣了。但在幕後，我們正在做一些令人驚嘆的事情來改進——我們稱之為選擇體驗，也就是內容髮現和推薦，以及所有我認為本質上需要 Ted 團隊所做的所有工作並試圖為我們在世界各地的用戶放大其價值的事情。有時這些事情很微妙，因為它們發生在幕後，如果你願意的話。但每個季度我們都能看到那裡的進步，我知道我們正在為世界各地的會員做好服務。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

Thanks, Doug. And since you didn't ask, I'm going to take another couple of seconds to tell you about Q4 anyway.

謝謝，道格。既然您沒有問，我還是會花幾秒鐘向您介紹 Q4。

Okay. Go for it.

好的。大膽試試吧。

The Watcher is already turning out to be enormous. We have returning season of The Crown, Emily in Paris, Manifest, Dead to Me, Firefly Lane, Ginny & Georgia, an origin story from the world of Witcher. We have an incredible new action series starring Noah Centineo called The Recruit. We have Tim Burton's television directorial debut with Wednesday. We have a new series from Guillermo del Toro called Cabinet of Curiosities. And from around the world, our -- some of our most successful shows like Alice in Borderland and Barbarians and Elite are back for new seasons too, all just in Q4.

觀察者已經變得十分龐大。我們迎來了《王冠》、《艾蜜莉在巴黎》、《顯靈》、《麻木不仁》、《螢火蟲小巷》、《金妮與喬治亞》以及《巫師》世界起源故事的回歸。我們有一部由諾亞森迪尼奧主演的精彩新動作系列劇，名為《新兵》。星期三，我們將迎來提姆波頓的電視導演處女作。我們有吉勒摩戴托羅的新系列，名為《珍奇櫃》。在世界各地，我們的一些最成功的劇集，如《愛麗絲夢遊仙境》、《野蠻人》和《名校風暴》也將於第四季度回歸，推出新一季。

So let me say, first and foremost, we have a lot of work to do to continue to reaccelerate revenue. We're really happy with our levels of engagement, the number of hit series and films that we're able to put to our members at prices that they think are a phenomenal value in these strained economic times. And we're growing even in those strained economic times and with the extraordinary levels of competition out there for streaming dollars and for hours of viewing.

所以我想說，首先，我們還有很多工作要做，才能繼續加速收入成長。我們對我們的參與度感到非常滿意，我們能夠以會員認為在當前經濟緊張時期具有驚人價值的價格向會員提供大量熱門劇集和電影。即使在經濟不景氣、串流媒體收入和觀看時間競爭異常激烈的情況下，我們仍在不斷發展。

We stood up an ad product. In 6 months with this -- and with the tremendous demand on that product and with a great partnership with Microsoft and with Greg Peters and his phenomenal team that runs that effort, our Basic with Ads tier is going to help us open up Netflix to a whole new audience of folks who are attracted to all that great content at an even lower price point.

我們推出了一款廣告產品。六個月後，由於該產品的需求量巨大，加上與微軟以及 Greg Peters 和他出色的團隊的良好合作，我們的「帶廣告基礎版」將幫助我們以更低的價格向全新的受眾群體開放 Netflix，吸引那些被所有精彩內容所吸引的人們。

In Q4, we look forward to bringing this incredible slate to everybody and as we continue to grow in this world of film and television and games, which we believe that the future of television, of films and games is streaming. And we're working hard to continue to grow our lead in this area while we continue to bring healthy returns. And we can only do that by bringing the shows, the films and games that people love. So wait till you see Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and wait till you see the new season of The Crown, and you'll know just what I'm talking about.

在第四季度，我們期待將這一令人難以置信的作品帶給所有人，隨著我們在電影、電視和遊戲領域的不斷發展，我們相信電視、電影和遊戲的未來在於串流媒體。我們正在努力繼續擴大我們在該領域的領先地位，同時繼續帶來豐厚的回報。而我們只有推出人們喜愛的節目、電影和遊戲才能做到這一點。所以，等你看了《玻璃洋蔥：利刃出鞘之謎》和《王冠》的新一季，你就會明白我在說什麼。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。