Netflix Inc (NFLX) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Netflix Q3 2019 Earnings Interview.

下午好，歡迎來到 Netflix 2019 年第三季財報採訪。

I'm Spencer Wang, VP of IR and Corporate Development.

我是 Spencer Wang，IR 和企業發展副總裁。

Joining me today are CEO, Reed Hastings; CFO, Spence Neumann; Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos; and Chief Product Officer, Greg Peters.

今天加入我的是執行長 Reed Hastings；財務長史賓塞‧諾依曼；首席內容官 Ted Sarandos；首席產品長 Greg Peters。

Our interviewer this quarter is Mike Morris from Guggenheim.

本季我們的訪談者是來自古根漢的麥克莫里斯。

As a reminder, we'll be making forward-looking statements, and actual results may vary.

提醒一下，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能會有所不同。

With that, let me turn it over to Mike for his first question.

接下來，讓我把第一個問題轉交給麥克。

Thank you, Spencer.

謝謝你，史賓賽。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Let's start by talking about both member trends and the outlook that you just provided for members in the fourth quarter.

讓我們先討論一下會員趨勢以及您剛剛為會員提供的第四季度的前景。

Starting with the third quarter, can you speak a bit about some of the key drivers that -- your results came in relatively in line with your guidance.

從第三季開始，您能否談談一些關鍵驅動因素，您的結果與您的指導相對一致。

Talk about the gross add dynamic and the churn dynamic there relative to what you were expecting coming into the quarter, please.

請談談相對於您對本季的預期的總增加動態和流失動態。

Relatively in line.

比較符合。

It was the most accurate member forecast we've had in years.

這是我們多年來最準確的會員預測。

Spencer, over to you.

史賓塞，交給你了。

Spencer or Spence?

史賓賽還是史賓賽？

I'll take it.

我要買它。

We've got a lot of Spencers on the call.

我們接到了很多斯賓塞的電話。

I'd first say, Michael, it was a really strong quarter.

我首先要說的是，邁克爾，這是一個非常強勁的季度。

I mean not just around subscribers but around overall business performance that was record revenues for Q3, record operating profit and nearly $1 billion of operating profit and record paid net adds for the quarter.

我指的不僅是訂閱用戶，還有整體業務業績，即第三季創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的營業利潤、近 10 億美元的營業利潤以及創紀錄的本季付費淨成長。

We delivered on the subscriber front slightly ahead of where we expected outside of the U.S. In the U.S., we were a little bit short.

我們在美國以外地區的用戶交付量略高於我們的預期。在美國，我們的交付量有點不足。

To your question, what drove that, we're talking very small numbers here.

對於你的問題，是什麼推動了這一點，我們在這裡討論的是非常小的數字。

But we did see some elevated churn in the quarter that -- we had seen some elevated churn following our price increases in the U.S., and that ticked up and sustained through the quarter longer than it had in the past.

但我們確實在本季度看到了一些客戶流失率上升——隨著我們在美國的價格上漲，客戶流失率有所上升，這種情況在本季度持續時間比過去更長。

But these are really small changes, we're talking about like a 0.1 of a percentage point in churn.

但這些確實是很小的變化，我們談論的是 0.1 個百分點的流失。

And that's why, at the same time, these price increases are hugely revenue positive for us, as you saw in the quarter.

這就是為什麼與此同時，這些價格上漲對我們的收入產生了巨大的積極影響，正如您在本季度所看到的那樣。

And so we take the bulk of that revenue and reinvest it back into the service, into great content, into great product experience for our members to continue to deliver on that value proposition and continue to grow our business.

因此，我們將大部分收入重新投資到服務、優質內容和優質產品體驗中，以便我們的會員繼續實現這一價值主張並繼續發展我們的業務。

Okay.

好的。

I want to come back to the topic of churn.

我想回到流失的話題。

But before we do, I just want to ask about the fourth quarter outlook.

但在此之前，我只想問一下第四季的前景。

On the last call, we spoke about potentially seeing a record year of net subscriber or net member additions in 2019.

在上次電話會議上，我們談到 2019 年淨訂戶或淨會員新增量可能會創歷史新高。

The guide does not imply that at this point.

該指南目前並未暗示這一點。

So can you talk a bit about perhaps what changed?

那麼您能談談可能發生了什麼變化嗎？

And I think the big question in investors' minds is will 2018 represent a peak year for member adds or can you get back to growing on top of that level again.

我認為投資者心中的一個大問題是 2018 年是否會成為會員增加的高峰年，或者您能否再次恢復到該水平之上。

Sure.

當然。

I'll take that one again, too.

我也再拿一張。

So in terms of our guide for the year, yes, it is down a bit from our previous forecast.

因此，就我們今年的指南而言，是的，它比我們之前的預測有所下降。

And really, what we're just trying to do there is to be prudent about the -- there's a number of moving parts in Q4 and variables that are just difficult to forecast.

事實上，我們只是想做的是謹慎對待——第四季有許多變化的部分和難以預測的變數。

And whether it's, first, just the ability to be precise about a forecast around our content slate that has so much new IP in Q4 and big film -- a big film IP that we -- we've never had a quarter with so much big film, so many big films launching in a quarter.

首先，是否能夠對我們的內容板進行精確預測，第四季度有如此多的新 IP 和大電影——我們的大電影 IP——我們從未有過一個季度有如此多的內容大電影，一個季度就有很多大電影上映。

Combine that with some of that elevated churn that we saw in Q3 and the potential for that to continue into Q4.

將其與我們在第三季度看到的一些上升的客戶流失率以及這種情況持續到第四季度的潛力結合起來。

And then lastly, there is obviously a few new competitors launching in the near term, and we try to factor that in as well.

最後，顯然近期會有一些新的競爭對手推出，我們也嘗試將其考慮在內。

Inevitably, there's probably going to be some curiosity and some trial of those competitive service offerings.

不可避免地，人們可能會對這些有競爭力的服務產品產生一些好奇心和一些嘗試。

So when we put all that together, again, we adjusted our forecast slightly.

因此，當我們將所有這些放在一起時，我們再次稍微調整了我們的預測。

It's still nearly 27 million paid net adds for the year, a tremendously strong year.

今年付費淨增加人數仍接近 2,700 萬，這是非常強勁的一年。

And furthermore, it is -- our long-term outlook is unchanged in terms of the long-term opportunity for the business.

此外，就業務的長期機會而言，我們的長期前景並沒有改變。

We're just trying to be prudent about our Q4 forecast.

我們只是對第四季的預測保持謹慎。

Mike, in the prior year, in the U.S., we did 5 million net adds.

麥克，去年，在美國，我們淨增加了 500 萬。

And this year, if we're on forecast, it will be about 2.6 million.

今年，如果我們預測的話，這一數字約為 260 萬。

So the gap's almost entirely in the U.S. That's really on the back of the price increase.

因此，缺口幾乎全部在美國。這實際上是價格上漲的結果。

There's a little more sensitivity.

靈敏度多了一點。

We're starting to see the -- a little touch of that.

我們開始看到一點點。

What we have to do is just really focus on the service quality, make us must-have.

我們要做的就是真正注重服務質量，讓我們成為必備的。

I mean we're incredibly low priced compared to cable.

我的意思是，與有線電視相比，我們的價格低得令人難以置信。

We're winning more and more viewings.

我們贏得了越來越多的觀看次數。

And we think we have a lot of room there.

我們認為那裡有很大的空間。

But this year, that's what's hit us.

但今年，這就是對我們的打擊。

And we'll just stay focused on just providing amazing value to our members in the U.S. And I think that gives us a real shot at continuing to grow net -- long-term net adds on an annual basis.

我們將繼續專注於為我們在美國的會員提供驚人的價值，我認為這讓我們有機會繼續實現淨增長——每年的長期淨增加。

But we're going to be a little cautious on that guidance and feel our way through here.

但我們會對這項指導持謹慎態度，並在此摸索。

Yes.

是的。

And on that elevated churn, just to kind of wrap on this, what type of subscribers are you seeing churn more often?

在流失率上升的情況下，為了概括這一點，您看到哪種類型的訂閱者流失率更高？

Does it tend to be really that hit-driven nature around particular programming?

它真的是圍繞特定節目的熱門驅動性質嗎？

Does it happen to be sort of the last subscriber in is less sticky?

它是否恰好是黏性較低的最後一個訂閱者？

What are you seeing there?

你在那裡看到什麼？

Mike, at a 0.1%, it's 1 in 1,000 people, so you really can't tell the margin.

麥克，這個比例是 0.1%，相當於千分之一，所以你真的無法分辨其差距。

Think of it much more big picture, which is it's always a question of how much value do we have, how do the consumers feel it.

從更宏觀的角度思考，這始終是一個問題：我們有多少價值，消費者如何感受它。

In moving up ASP in the U.S. from about $12 to about $13, we see a little bit of it.

在美國的平均售價從約 12 美元上升到約 13 美元的過程中，我們看到了一點。

And then what we have to do is just give it a pause and really focus on the value.

然後我們要做的就是暫停一下，真正專注在價值上。

If you think about it, we haven't had many big movies in the past, and movies are very valuable, people are used to paying for a lot of that.

如果你想想，我們過去沒有太多大電影，而電影非常有價值，人們習慣花錢買很多電影。

And the slate that Ted and his team have this quarter and for next year is way better than any movie slate we've ever had.

泰德和他的團隊本季和明年的電影名單都比我們以往擁有的任何電影名單都要好。

There's some great room for optimism there, too.

這方面也有很大的樂觀空間。

So we just have to focus on the members, and I think it will shake out very well.

所以我們只需要關注成員，我認為它會得到很好的解決。

Okay.

好的。

And so let's talk about competition.

那我們來談談競爭。

Spence brought the topic up, so I'm not introducing it.

Spence 提出了這個主題，所以我不做介紹。

I know it's been a hot topic.

我知道這是一個熱門話題。

But Reed, you spoke in the U.K. a couple weeks ago.

但是里德，你幾週前在英國發表了演說。

You made a comment saying it would be a whole new world starting in November.

你評論說從 11 月開始將是一個全新的世界。

I think a lot of people -- a lot of investors just read the quote, they didn't necessarily see the interview for context.

我認為很多人──很多投資人只是閱讀了這段引言，他們不一定會看到訪談的背景。

And so I'd love it if you could provide some context given that that is a bit different from your comments from a couple quarters ago where you felt that perhaps these new services wouldn't necessarily be material to the outlook.

因此，如果您能提供一些背景信息，我會很高興，因為這與您幾個季度前的評論有所不同，您認為也許這些新服務不一定對前景產生重大影響。

From when we began in streaming, Hulu and YouTube and Amazon Prime back in 2007, 2008, we're all in the market.

從 2007 年、2008 年我們開始涉足串流媒體、Hulu、YouTube 和 Amazon Prime 開始，我們就都在市場上。

All 4 of us have been competing heavily, including with linear TV for the last 12 years.

我們四個人都在激烈競爭，包括過去 12 年的線性電視競爭。

So fundamentally, there's not a big change here.

所以從根本上來說，這裡沒有太大的變化。

It is interesting that we see both Apple and Disney launching basically in the same week after 12 years of not being in the market.

有趣的是，我們看到蘋果和迪士尼在12年沒有進入市場後基本上在同一周推出了產品。

And I was being a little playful with a whole new world in the sense of the drama of it coming.

從即將到來的戲劇性的意義上來說，我對一個全新的世界有點好玩。

But fundamentally, it's more of the same, and Disney is going to be a great competitor.

但從根本上來說，兩者基本上相同，迪士尼將成為一個強大的競爭對手。

Apple is just beginning, but they'll probably have some great shows, too.

蘋果才剛開始，但他們可能也會有一些精彩的表演。

But again, all of us are competing with linear TV.

但同樣，我們所有人都在與線性電視競爭。

We're all relatively small to linear TV.

對於線性電視來說，我們都相對較小。

So just like in the letter we put about the multiple cable networks over the last 30 years not really competing with each other fundamentally but competing with broadcast, I think it's the same kind of dynamic here.

因此，就像我們在信中提到的那樣，過去 30 年多個有線電視網絡從根本上來說並不是相互競爭，而是與廣播競爭，我認為這裡也是同樣的動態。

I think I got the subtlety of the brave -- the whole new world Aladdin reference.

我想我得到了勇敢者的微妙——整個新世界阿拉丁的參考。

Everyone else took it pretty literal.

其他人都從字面上理解了它。

And Ted, why don't you talk a little about the movie slate and how it's different?

泰德，為什麼不談談電影片單以及它有何不同？

If there's a whole new world, it's really about our movie slate more than anything else.

如果有一個全新的世界，那麼它最重要的就是我們的電影板。

100%.

100%。

I think we've got -- just in the fourth quarter alone, we're talking about films that are -- that range from a massive scale action film from Michael Bay with 6 Underground to Oscar hopefuls like The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy's return in Dolemite.

我認為我們已經——僅在第四季度，我們就討論了一些電影——從邁克爾·貝的《地下六號》的大型動作片，到有望獲得奧斯卡獎的電影，如《愛爾蘭人》、《婚姻故事》和《愛情故事》。兩位教皇，艾迪墨菲在多麥特的回歸。

So these are big, theatrically ambitious-type films that you'll be able to watch on Netflix, included in your subscription.

因此，這些都是大型、戲劇性的雄心勃勃的電影，您可以在 Netflix 上觀看，並包含在您的訂閱中。

It really is a fundamental change in the economics of how people enjoy films.

這確實是人們欣賞電影的經濟學方式的根本改變。

So we're really excited about it.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

And it's our first time we've seen this scale and this volume of films in one quarter, so we're really excited about it.

這是我們第一次在一個季度內看到如此規模和如此數量的電影，所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Before we dig into some content questions a bit more, I do want to talk about pricing a little bit and the pricing power in the U.S. market.

在我們進一步深入探討一些內容問題之前，我確實想談談定價以及美國市場的定價能力。

So perhaps for Greg or for Spence, 2 things.

所以也許對格雷格或史賓塞來說，有兩件事。

Number one, do you think that the lower price point for some of these new services will negatively impact your ability to raise your price in the future?

第一，您認為其中一些新服務的較低價格點是否會對您未來提高價格的能力產生負面影響？

And maybe more broadly, can you talk about equilibrium price for this service?

也許更廣泛地說，您能談談這項服務的均衡價格嗎？

We would love for you to give us a price point.

我們希望您能給我們一個價格點。

I know that's unlikely.

我知道這不太可能。

But as you just think about -- you could be a great value with a number of different price points, but how do you think about where that sort of shakes out?

但正如你所想，你可能會在許多不同的價位上實現巨大的價值，但你如何看待這種變化？

I think the pricing of our competitors we don't feel as a real significant factor in determining where -- what we can charge for our service.

我認為我們認為競爭對手的定價並不是決定我們的服務收費的真正重要因素。

Again, the services and the content are highly differentiated, so one is not something you're going to choose to do just for us.

同樣，服務和內容是高度差異化的，因此您不會選擇只為我們做某事。

But I would say our job and what we think about pricing from a long-term perspective is continue to take the revenue that we have that our subscribers give us every month, judiciously and smartly invest it into an increasing variety and diversity of content where we really want to be best-in-class across every single genre.

但我想說的是，我們的工作以及我們從長期角度對定價的看法是，繼續將訂戶每月給我們的收入明智地投資到日益多樣化的內容中。真的希望在每個流派中都成為一流的。

And if we do that and we're successful in making those investments smartly, we'll be able to continue to deliver more value to our members.

如果我們這樣做並且成功地明智地進行這些投資，我們將能夠繼續為我們的會員提供更多價值。

And that really will enable us to, from time to time, ask for more revenues so that we can continue that virtuous cycle going.

這確實將使我們能夠不時地要求更多收入，以便我們能夠繼續這種良性循環。

And so I don't know if you can speak any more about it, but is there a place where whether it's relative to a pay-TV subscription in a certain market or relative to other streaming services that you think sets some sort of bound around where pricing could ultimately go to?

所以我不知道你是否可以再談論它，但是是否有一個地方，無論是相對於某個市場的付費電視訂閱，還是相對於你認為設置某種界限的其他串流媒體服務定價最終會走向何方？

I think you can look at a couple of external ones in terms of pay-TV packages that might be relevant, but we don't really look at it that way.

我認為您可以在可能相關的付費電視套餐方面考慮一些外部的，但我們實際上並不是這樣看待的。

We look at it more sort of incrementally and let our subscribers sort of tell us, as we add more value along, where that right price should be.

我們以增量的方式看待它，並讓我們的訂戶告訴我們，當我們增加更多價值時，正確的價格應該在哪裡。

It's a -- we're really more focused on listening to subscribers and sort of walking that path with them.

我們確實更專注於傾聽訂閱者的意見並與他們一起走這條路。

Okay.

好的。

And one other question on pricing for you, Greg.

格雷格，還有一個關於定價的問題。

A couple of different dynamics especially outside the U.S. where you have different price points.

有一些不同的動態，尤其是在美國以外的地區，那裡有不同的價格點。

You tested a mobile-only plan, a lower price plan in India.

您測試了僅限行動裝置的套餐，這是印度價格較低的套餐。

Could you talk a little bit about perhaps the variety of tests and pricing points that you have in the marketplace right now?

您能否談談目前市場上的各種測試和定價點？

And any differentiation you can give us between more mature markets that -- with some stable pricing tests, anything like that so we can get a view going forward?

您可以透過一些穩定的定價測試，為我們提供更成熟市場之間的任何區別，以便我們能夠了解未來的情況嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Just to talk a little bit about where we are in India, I mean again, we think about revenue as the guiding principle for us.

只是簡單談談我們在印度的情況，我再說一遍，我們認為收入是我們的指導原則。

We do these different tests in trying to figure out what is the right set of plans that have the right benefits, the right features that are delivered at the right price for the subscribers in any given market.

我們進行這些不同的測試，試圖找出什麼是正確的計劃，這些計劃具有正確的好處，正確的功能，並以正確的價格為任何特定市場的訂戶提供正確的功能。

And I think what we're exploring is, as we are operating in markets that have very, very different conditions, very different levels of affluence and other forms of entertainment competition, et cetera, what is the right structure for us.

我認為我們正在探索的是，當我們在條件非常非常不同、富裕水平和其他形式的娛樂競爭等非常不同的市場中運作時，什麼是適合我們的結構。

And so we've been very, very happy with the mobile plan.

所以我們對行動計劃非常非常滿意。

It's actually performing better than we tested.

它實際上比我們測試的表現更好。

We'll look at testing that in other markets too because we think there are other markets which have similar conditions that make it likely that that's going to be successful for us there as well.

我們也會考慮在其他市場進行測試，因為我們認為其他市場也有類似的條件，這使得我們在那裡也能取得成功。

But I also think we're going to look at other plan structures, other feature value benefits where we might see different market conditions that will work there.

但我也認為我們將考慮其他計劃結構、其他功能價值優勢，我們可能會看到在那裡適用的不同市場條件。

And I won't get into sort of leaning into those, we'll see them as we roll out, and we'll respond to them based on what our consumers in those markets, our members to be in those markets are telling us is working or not.

我不會深入研究這些內容，我們會在推出時看到它們，並且我們將根據這些市場的消費者、這些市場的會員告訴我們的內容對它們做出回應工作與否。

Okay.

好的。

I want to come back to competition but this time talk about competition for content.

我想回到競爭，但這次談論內容的競爭。

Ted, you teed up a bit of some of the things you're enthusiastic about going forward.

特德，你已經準備好了一些你熱衷於未來的事情。

Reed, you did make the comment again in the U.K. that someday The Crown would look like a bargain.

里德，你確實在英國再次發表評論說有一天皇冠看起來會很便宜。

Perhaps another sound-bite that was picked up but perhaps you can provide some context around that.

也許是另一個片段，但也許你可以提供一些相關的背景資訊。

Maybe generally, how do you think about the investment that you want to make in programming from a very high level?

也許一般來說，您如何看待您想要從很高的水平進行程式設計的投資？

Is it an overall budget?

是總體預算嗎？

Is it a cost per subscriber to a certain level?

每個訂戶的成本是否達到一定水準？

How do you think about that?

您對此有何看法？

I would say the exciting thing about this moment in entertainment history is that the scope and scale and ambition of television is beginning to rival that of feature film, which is an incredible win for consumers.

我想說，娛樂史上這一時刻的令人興奮的事情是，電視的範圍、規模和雄心壯志開始與長片相媲美，這對消費者來說是一個令人難以置信的勝利。

And so when Reed was talking about The Crown, he was talking about relative to the joy and the hours of watching, The Crown will look like a bargain and that -- these things on big scope and scale.

因此，當里德談論《王冠》時，他談論的是相對於觀看的樂趣和時間，《王冠》看起來很便宜，而且——這些東西在大範圍和規模上。

And our -- we're pretty uniquely positioned with a $15 billion content budget to be able to deliver on those scope and scale at the same time for film and television.

我們的位置非常獨特，擁有 150 億美元的內容預算，能夠同時為電影和電視提供這些範圍和規模。

So that incredible -- that slate that I just rattled off to you, it's happening at the same time that we have returning seasons of End of the (expletive)ing World, The Crown, Lost in Space, You, all incredibly popular shows.

太不可思議了——我剛剛向你們講述的那份名單，就在我們《世界末日》、《王冠》、《迷失太空》、《你》等幾季回歸的同時，所有這些節目都非常受歡迎。

Casa de las Flores from Mexico, Baby from Italy, all back for returning seasons.

來自墨西哥的 Casa de las Flores、來自義大利的 Baby，全部回歸，迎接回歸季節。

Breaking brand-new series like The Witcher, Daybreak, all at the same time being able to deliver on what we think is an incredible value proposition for the viewers.

像《巫師》、《黎明》這樣的突破性的全新劇集，同時能夠為觀眾提供我們認為令人難以置信的價值主張。

So you were asking earlier about price, it's really price relative to value.

所以你之前問的是價格，它其實是相對於價值的價格。

And if you're spending more and more time watching TV shows and films on Netflix, you are realizing an incredible value.

如果您花越來越多的時間在 Netflix 上觀看電視節目和電影，您就會意識到不可思議的價值。

And I think that's really how the consumer experiences it.

我認為這確實是消費者的體驗方式。

Ted, as much as you can ballpark it, a show 5 years ago producing that same show today, sort of 50% more expensive, 30%?

泰德，盡你所能推測一下，5 年前的節目今天製作了同樣的節目，貴了 50%，還是 30%？

It's a really hard one because the range is huge, and sometimes the big breakthrough is not the one that turned out to be that came into it that competitively.

這是一個非常困難的任務，因為範圍很大，有時重大突破並不是那些競爭激烈的突破。

But on a very competitive show, there's probably been 30% price escalation from this time last year.

但在競爭非常激烈的展會上，價格較去年同期可能上漲了 30%。

In 1 year.

1年內。

In 1 year.

1年內。

No, that's a lot.

不，很多了。

But definitely, content pricing is rising.

但毫無疑問，內容定價正在上漲。

But when -- we are fortunate to have the largest membership, one of the biggest revenues and the biggest content budgets, and so that's what's in there.

但是，我們很幸運擁有最多的會員、最大的收入和最大的內容預算之一，所以這就是其中的內容。

We're able to still be very competitive for the best shows.

我們仍然能夠在最佳節目方面具有很強的競爭力。

And as you pointed out, it's an elite few shows that are that competitive that would see that kind of escalation.

正如你所指出的，只有少數幾個具有如此競爭力的精英節目才會看到這種升級。

Just in any environment where you've injected a few new buyers, you're going to catch that dynamic on a highly competitive show.

在任何注入了一些新買家的環境中，您都會在競爭激烈的展會上捕捉到這種動態。

The only thing I'd add also, just to reinforce, we look at a lot of things.

我唯一要補充的是，為了強調，我們會考慮很多事情。

We don't chase everything, and we also lose on opportunities, right?

我們不追求一切，我們也失去了機會，不是嗎？

So we're exercising discipline every -- all along the way with every single title, we're assessing every title individually.

因此，我們對每個遊戲都嚴格遵守紀律，我們對每個遊戲都進行單獨評估。

And where -- one is, as Ted said, with this size of content budget, we'll take big swings and we can make some mistakes because we don't have any kind of single title content concentration.

正如特德所說，其中之一是，在如此規模的內容預算下，我們將採取大幅調整，並且我們可能會犯一些錯誤，因為我們沒有任何單一標題內容集中。

But we are, because of that discipline, we're continuing to march towards increasing profit margins, improving our cash flow trajectory over time.

但由於這種紀律，我們正在繼續努力提高利潤率，隨著時間的推移改善我們的現金流軌跡。

So this is with discipline and business discipline while we are going after these big swings.

因此，當我們追求這些大的波動時，這就是紀律和商業紀律。

And Mike, at the risk of hitting too hard the diversification point, just sort of mathematically, investors can do the math on what a $100 million sort of project relative to a $15 billion cash content budget or $10 billion P&L budget means.

麥克，冒著過度追求多元化點的風險，只是從數學上來說，投資者可以計算出 1 億美元的項目相對於 150 億美元的現金內容預算或 100 億美元的損益預算意味著什麼。

It's incredibly diverse, right, so we don't have any sort of concentration risk.

它非常多樣化，對吧，所以我們不存在任何集中風險。

So I'd point that out.

所以我想指出這一點。

Yes.

是的。

Considering that math, Spencer, but the idea that the rumored $100 million that House of Cards investment going into the way, that would seem earth-shattering less than 7 years ago.

史賓塞，考慮到這一數字，以及傳聞中《紙牌​​屋》投資 1 億美元的想法，在不到 7 年前，這似乎是驚天動地的。

Today, it represents about 1% of our content budget.

如今，它約占我們內容預算的 1%。

And today, that would be a bargain.

今天，這將是一筆划算的交易。

So if I look at this dynamic then, continue to increase the investment in content, at the same time, growing your subscribers.

因此，如果我看看這種動態，那麼，繼續增加對內容的投資，同時增加訂閱者。

Where are we in terms of achieving scale on that investment if we look at that content spend per subscriber?

如果我們看看每個訂閱者的內容支出，我們在實現投資規模方面處於什麼位置？

Do you expect the competition to continue to drive that up?

您預期競爭會繼續推動這股趨勢嗎？

Or are we getting to a point of equilibrium where you're starting to see the benefit of that global penetration that you have?

或者我們達到了一個平衡點，您開始看到您擁有的全球滲透的好處？

I wouldn't try to take a stab at predicting whether we're at equilibrium when there's so much fluidity in the market today.

當今天市場流動性如此之大時，我不會試圖嘗試預測我們是否處於均衡狀態。

But I think what you're seeing now, there's an absolute cap, of course, but anyone can pay for any given project, and it will get super competitive for a lot of them.

但我認為你現在看到的是，當然有一個絕對的上限，但任何人都可以為任何給定的項目付費，而且對於許多項目來說，這將變得極具競爭力。

So I'd say that we're investing forward and trying to win those moments of joy for our members, and that's what's driving us.

所以我想說，我們正在向前投資，努力為我們的會員贏得那些歡樂的時刻，這就是我們的動力。

And Mike, there's about 2 billion active users of Facebook, 2 billion active users of YouTube.

麥克，Facebook 大約有 20 億活躍用戶，YouTube 大約有 20 億活躍用戶。

We're obviously a fraction of that.

我們顯然只是其中的一小部分。

And those numbers are continuing to grow.

而且這些數字還在持續成長。

There are 6 billion active mobile phones in the world, and that's got to equilibrium.

世界上有 60 億支活躍的手機，而且這個數量必須達到平衡。

So equilibrium is so far away from where we are today.

因此，平衡離我們今天的狀態還很遙遠。

It's not something that we think a lot about, we think about how do we grow.

這不是我們思考很多的事情，我們思考的是我們如何成長。

Yes.

是的。

Definitely in terms of member growth.

絕對是在會員成長方面。

I thought you were talking about content spend.

我以為你在談內容支出。

Sure.

當然。

So let's talk about creating franchises.

那我們來談談創建特許經營權。

I have a question about that.

我對此有一個疑問。

I think there is a lot of enthusiasm, as you know, for the Disney+ product coming out.

如你所知，我認為迪士尼+產品的問世引起了很大的熱情。

And I think it rides a little bit on the success of the streaming marketplace but also this concept that they have this tremendous content library and IP library that they've built over many years.

我認為這在一定程度上取決於串流媒體市場的成功，但也取決於他們多年來建立的龐大內容庫和 IP 庫的概念。

So Reed and Ted, as you think about that, I know you've made an investment in children's content over the course of the last quarter.

所以，里德和特德，當你們想到這一點時，我知道你們在上個季度對兒童內容進行了投資。

Talk a little bit about franchises, the importance of franchises and whether building franchises is something that is your ambition.

談談特許經營權、特許經營權的重要性以及建立特許經營權是否是您的野心。

I think established IP has a leg up with consumers.

我認為成熟的智慧財產權在消費者中具有優勢。

They know what they're getting into.

他們知道自己將面臨什麼。

There's a prebuilt-in excitement.

有一種預先建立的興奮。

It makes the marketing a little easier.

它使行銷變得更容易一些。

But in general, don't forget the power of brand creation.

但總的來說，不要忘記品牌創造的力量。

And what is the value of a franchise?

特許經營權的價值是什麼？

It's really the value of brand creation and can you scale off of it.

這確實是品牌創造的價值，你可以擴展它嗎？

In this past quarter, we made a movie called Tall Girl, a hugely unknown cast, who, in 7 days, grew their social media following into the millions on Netflix and had over 40 million people watch it.

上個季度，我們製作了一部名為《Tall Girl》的電影，演員陣容非常不知名，在7 天之內，他們在Netflix 上的社群媒體粉絲數量就增加到了數百萬，觀看人數超過4000萬人。

That's the ability to create a brand almost out of thin air, which, I think, is every bit as valuable as drafting off a bunch of other franchises waiting for them to burn out.

這就是幾乎憑空創建一個品牌的能力，我認為，這與起草一堆其他特許經營權等待它們耗盡一樣有價值。

That being said, we're very excited about the opportunity to do it ourselves.

話雖這麼說，我們對有機會自己做這件事感到非常興奮。

We see the value of franchises like Stranger Things and Black Mirror.

我們看到了《怪奇物語》和《黑鏡》等系列電影的價值。

And so we're continuing to work to do that as well.

因此，我們也將繼續努力做到這一點。

But I'd think about it as not like franchises are better than nonfranchises.

但我認為特許經營並不比非特許經營更好。

Great stories are what matter, and the way that they reach consumers really makes a difference.

精彩的故事才是最重要的，而它們接觸消費者的方式確實會產生影響。

You had a couple of original programs, original pieces of content in markets outside the U.S., global pieces but focused in markets, Sacred Games in India, Casa De Papel in Spain, I'm thinking about in particular, which saw Google search activity, let's say, at multiples or at least doubling what their prior levels were.

你們有一些原創節目，美國以外市場的原創內容，全球性的內容，但專注於市場，印度的神聖遊戲，西班牙的Casa De Papel，我特別想到的是，它們看到了谷歌搜尋活動，比方說，是之前水平的幾倍或至少兩倍。

So I'm curious, your thought about how that piece of content does drive that enthusiasm in a local market.

所以我很好奇，您對這段內容如何推動當地市場的熱情有何看法。

I think what that ties to really is, I think, the way we try to think about what the growth opportunity is.

我認為這真正與我們思考成長機會的方式有關。

So I'd love to hear why you think you get that big step-up.

所以我很想聽聽為什麼你認為自己有這麼大的進步。

And maybe in terms of Ted and Greg together, how you work together to try to make that happen.

也許就泰德和格雷格在一起而言，你們如何共同努力實現這一目標。

Sure.

當然。

You saw in the letter our investment in local language original series and film is continuing to grow.

您在信中看到，我們對本地語言原創劇集和電影的投資正在持續增長。

We'll add than 100 seasons of new local language original shows, and they make a huge impact in the market.

我們將增加 100 多季新的本地語言原創節目，它們對市場產生巨大影響。

Casa de las Flores, which will be back for a second season in Mexico, has been a tremendous success.

《鮮花之家》第二季將在墨西哥回歸，並取得了巨大成功。

What's been great, too, is a lot of these titles that are hugely impactful in the country where they're produced also tend to travel throughout the region, and sometimes around the world.

同樣很棒的是，許多在其製作國具有巨大影響力的作品也往往會在整個地區甚至世界各地傳播。

Not -- so the Casa De Papel, the success of that show, was basically in almost every non-English-speaking territory.

不是——所以《Casa De Papel》這部劇的成功基本上幾乎遍及所有非英語地區。

It was a phenomenal success.

這是一次非凡的成功。

We're going to see that coming up with a new show called The Wave from Germany where these stories can be very pan-regional.

我們將看到來自德國的一個名為《浪潮》的新節目，其中的故事可以是非常泛地區的。

But the way that they travel and the way that they make a big splash around the world is to be super authentically local and really satisfying for the viewers, starting in the home country and then expanding around the world.

但他們的旅行方式以及他們在世界各地引起轟動的方式是超級真實的本地化，真正讓觀眾滿意，從祖國開始，然後擴展到世界各地。

And we've been -- we're in our fourth year of producing local language originals at scale, and we're excited about continuing to expand it.

我們已經進入了大規模製作本地語言原創作品的第四年，我們對繼續擴大它感到很興奮。

And they can -- the nice part is is I think people will enjoy a global film or a global series every so often, love to see themselves on-screen, and that we're able to deliver on both of those propositions for our members around the world.

他們可以——最好的一點是，我認為人們會經常喜歡一部全球電影或一部全球連續劇，喜歡在銀幕上看到自己，而且我們能夠為我們的會員實現這兩個主張世界各地。

Just to add to that, I think it's super fun and exciting to be able to take one of these really authentic local stories and connect it effectively with a broad regional or global audience.

除此之外，我認為能夠將這些真正真實的當地故事之一與廣泛的地區或全球受眾有效地聯繫起來是非常有趣和令人興奮的。

In many cases, we feel like would have never actually watched a show in that language or from that country before.

在很多情況下，我們覺得以前從未真正觀看過語言或來自該國家/地區的節目。

And the key to doing that, first of all, is obviously being available in all those countries in an easy-to-access way.

做到這一點的關鍵首先顯然是以一種易於訪問的方式在所有這些國家提供。

But then it's connecting that show, having it be localized, in language with subtitles or dubbing, whatever is appropriate for that market.

但隨後它會連接該節目，對其進行本地化，使用帶有字幕或配音的語言，無論什麼都適合該市場。

And then also explaining to users, to members why they're going to want to watch this amazing heist series from Spain and why that's going to be a totally compelling watch for them based on the other kind of content that they're enjoying.

然後還向用戶、會員解釋為什麼他們想要觀看這部來自西班牙的精彩搶劫系列節目，以及為什麼基於他們喜歡的其他類型的內容，這對他們來說將是一部完全引人注目的手錶。

And I think it's important to understand how broad your production is outside the U.S. So can you share any statistics on how many countries you're actually producing first-party production of content and what that sort of investment looks like in terms of building a moat there?

我認為了解您的製作在美國以外的範圍有多廣泛非常重要。所以您能否分享有關您實際上在多少個國家製作第一方內容製作的統計數據以及在建立護城河方面的此類投資是什麼樣的那裡？

And in addition, you did strike a partnership with Mediaset during the quarter, one specific partnership you could perhaps detail and how that can benefit you.

此外，您在本季度確實與 Mediaset 建立了合作夥伴關係，您可以詳細說明此特定合作夥伴關係以及這對您有何好處。

Well, we've entered into most of those markets with joint -- in joint venture or in coproduction arrangements at the beginning and then take over many productions in those countries as we get scale in those countries.

嗯，我們一開始就透過合資或聯合製作的方式進入了大部分市場，然後隨著我們在這些國家的規模擴大，我們接管了這些國家的許多製作。

And we also continue to have great coproduction relationships with folks like Mediaset, even though our own studio is producing local Italian content as well.

儘管我們自己的工作室也在製作義大利本地內容，但我們仍繼續與 Mediaset 等公司保持良好的聯合製作關係。

So it's -- I'd say we've released original local language content in 17 countries to date, we're going to grow it to 30, and that's just going to keep growing around the world.

所以，我想說，迄今為止，我們已經在17 個國家/地區發布了原創的本地語言內容，我們將把這個數量增加到30 個國家/地區，而且這一數字還將在全球範圍內不斷增長。

One other content question, you did make a high-profile commitment to rights for Seinfeld, which is a little bit -- I don't want to say counter but certainly different from the focus of allocating resources incrementally to originals.

另一個內容問題，你確實對《宋飛正傳》的版權做出了高調的承諾，這有點——我不想說反駁，但肯定不同於將資源增量分配給原創作品的重點。

Can you talk about how big of a commitment is that for you maybe at least on a relative basis?

您能談談這對您來說至少是相對而言有多大的承諾嗎？

And why is that the right decision?

為什麼這是正確的決定？

Well, we've seen -- in the past, we've had a lot of questions about the value of volumes of catalog programming, meaning just having hours and hours of content that people don't watch.

好吧，我們已經看到 - 過去，我們對大量目錄節目的價值存在很多疑問，這意味著人們不會觀看大量的內容。

But we have seen there's a few titles in the history of television, Seinfeld being one of them, that continue to be incredibly relevant 30 years after it came out on television and get watched every night.

但我們已經看到，電視史上有一些作品，《宋飛正傳》就是其中之一，在電視上播出 30 年後，它們仍然具有令人難以置信的相關性，並且每天晚上都會被觀看。

It's kind of a comfort view comedy that travels around the world.

這是一部環遊世界的舒適觀喜劇。

And Seinfeld is one of these very elite shows that came available in that time frame.

《宋飛正傳》是那個時期出現的非常精英的節目之一。

So we have Friends till the end of the year, then we'll have Office for another year after that, and then Seinfeld will roll out to the world in 2021 on Netflix.

因此，我們的《老友記》將持續到今年年底，之後一年，我們將繼續推出 Office，而《宋飛正傳》將於 2021 年在 Netflix 上向全世界推出。

And we're incredibly enthusiastic about those shows.

我們對這些節目非常熱情。

But they're very, very unique in the vast catalog of television ever created that people are still watching 30 years after it was produced.

但它們在浩瀚的電視節目中非常非常獨特，而且在製作 30 年後人們仍在觀看。

I want to ask you some questions about windowing and sort of creating community among your viewers.

我想問您一些有關窗口化和在觀眾中創建社區的問題。

One of the questions that we get is really about dropping an entire season at once versus having it spread out over a week at a time.

我們遇到的問題之一實際上是立即放棄整個賽季，還是一次將其分散到一周以上。

You've addressed this question before, but I'd like to hear your more -- your current thoughts.

您之前已經回答過這個問題，但我想聽聽您更多的想法—您目前的想法。

And I think the question is really beyond just why not do it every week but why do it, let's say, all an entire season at once, maybe you could split a season into pieces or the timing of a series.

我認為問題實際上不僅僅是為什麼不每週都這樣做，而是為什麼要這樣做，比方說，一次完成整個賽季，也許你可以將一個賽季分成幾個部分或一個系列的時間安排。

For example, we were asked why Stranger Things couldn't have been before the end of the second quarter instead of just after the start of the third quarter.

例如，我們被問到為什麼《怪奇物語》不能在第二季結束前播放，而是在第三季開始之後播放。

So I'll give you a quick just personal anecdote.

所以我會給你一個簡短的個人軼事。

I'm a big fan of Succession on HBO, and I watch it every Sunday night when it comes out just like everyone else.

我是 HBO 的《繼承之戰》的超級粉絲，每個週日晚上當它上映時我都會像其他人一樣觀看。

And if I like that show a little bit less, I would probably burn out on it because I get aggravated every week waiting for the next episode.

如果我不太喜歡那個節目，我可能會因為它而精疲力竭，因為我每週都會因為等待下一集而感到惱怒。

That's how much I like it.

我就是這麼喜歡它。

So you're trying to finely -- fine-tune the proposition to the customer of great storytelling, how and when they want to watch it.

因此，您正在嘗試對精彩故事講述的客戶的主張進行微調，以及他們想要觀看的方式和時間。

And what we have seen in comparison -- because we have about 35 shows around the world that we release week-over-week because it's premiering in that territory of Netflix.

比較我們所看到的情況，因為我們每週都會在全球發布約 35 部劇集，因為它們是在 Netflix 的該地區首播。

And we don't want to -- and we want to deliver on it as soon as it -- as close to the broadcast window as we can.

我們不想——而且我們希望盡快交付——盡可能接近廣播窗口。

So what we -- and what we've seen is, in markets where we release it all at once versus 1 a week that we actually get more viewing and cumulatively more social media buzz, more tweets, more activity on social media around these shows for the all-at-once model.

所以我們——以及我們所看到的是，在我們一次性發布所有節目而不是每週發布一次的市場中，我們實際上獲得了更多的觀看次數，並且累積了更多的社交媒體熱議、更多的推文、圍繞這些節目的社交媒體上的更多活動對於一次性模型。

So people are coming to it at different times.

所以人們會在不同的時間來到這裡。

They're loving it more.

他們更愛它。

It's in a more concentrated experience, for sure.

當然，這是一種更集中的體驗。

All of that being said, we are doing things like producing -- like you saw with The Ranch where we are producing 10-episode seasons with smaller gaps between seasons, so they're coming out 6 months apart rather than a year apart.

話雖如此，我們正在做諸如製作之類的事情——就像你在《牧場》中看到的那樣，我們正在製作10 集的劇集，劇集之間的間隔更小，所以它們的播出間隔時間是6 個月而不是一年。

You're seeing we're testing an interesting release pattern with Rhythm + Flow, our music competition show, that -- and basically, what we're trying to do is match not just the program exactly that you want to watch but how do you want to watch it.

您會看到，我們正在用我們的音樂競賽節目Rhythm + Flow 測試一種有趣的發布模式，基本上，我們要做的不僅僅是匹配您想觀看的節目，而是如何匹配您想要觀看的節目。你想看嗎？

And for a lot of people, it may not be all at once, but it's hardly ever 1 a week.

對很多人來說，可能不會一次全部發生，但也幾乎不會每週發生一次。

Right.

正確的。

Do you see more opportunities for that?

您認為有更多機會嗎？

Whether it's unscripted or the type of program, it's not live per se but it does lend itself to a little more pent-up excitement, do you see more opportunities to put resources behind that?

無論是即興節目還是節目類型，它本身都不是現場直播，但它確實會讓人產生更多壓抑的興奮感，您是否認為有更多機會在其背後投入資源？

Or is it opportunistic?

還是機會主義？

It's opportunistic.

這是機會主義的。

We're trying a lot of different things.

我們正在嘗試很多不同的事情。

We're trying -- basically, what we're trying to do is make your favorite show, whatever that is.

我們正在努力——基本上，我們正​​在努力做的是製作你最喜歡的節目，無論是什麼。

And for some people, it's going to be a music competition show.

對某些人來說，這將是一場音樂競賽節目。

For other people, it will be Green Eggs and Ham.

對其他人來說，這將是綠雞蛋和火腿。

So we really are trying to make your favorite show, whatever it is, and be best-in-class at all of those things.

因此，我們確實在努力製作您最喜歡的節目，無論它是什麼，並在所有這些方面都做到一流。

And there might be something unique about the release rhythms of competition shows and more topical talk shows that lend themselves better to frequency release.

競賽節目和話題性較強的脫口秀節目的發布節奏可能有一些獨特之處，更適合頻率發布。

You spoke 2 quarters ago, you updated it a little bit last quarter, the topic of providing some more data or information both for producers, talent as well as for individuals.

你在兩個季度前說過，上個季度你更新了一點，主題是為製片人、人才以及個人提供更多的數據或資訊。

My first question is, can we have an update on where we are in that, what you have provided and especially from the consumer perspective as well?

我的第一個問題是，我們能否了解一下我們在這方面的最新進展，你們提供了什麼，特別是從消費者的角度來看？

I think the goal was to help create some more of that buzz, create more conversations.

我認為我們的目標是幫助創造更多的話題，創造更多的對話。

How is that playing out at this point?

目前情況如何？

One of the things you saw, we've launched in the U.K. and we're looking to expand presentation of the top 10, so that people can come to Netflix and see the top 10 most popular things in different categories.

您看到的其中一項內容是我們在英國推出的，我們希望擴大前 10 項內容的展示範圍，以便人們可以訪問 Netflix，看到不同類別中最受歡迎的 10 項內容。

Once again, I think that one way that people choose content is by popularity.

我再次認為人們選擇內容的一種方式是根據受歡迎程度。

It's not the only way, and it's not the only way we want people to.

這不是唯一的方式，也不是我們希望人們這樣做的唯一方式。

But if they want to use that as a tool to guide their decision-making, we want to help them do that.

但如果他們想用它作為指導決策的工具，我們希望幫助他們做到這一點。

So publishing that top 10 that refreshes every 24 hours is one way that we're helping out on the consumer side.

因此，發布每 24 小時刷新一次的前 10 名是我們為消費者提供幫助的一種方式。

Our producers, we share viewing data with every week on the lead of the launch week and the end of the month.

我們的製作人每週都會在發布週前和月底與我們分享觀看數據。

So they are -- we're incredibly transparent with our producers around the world, and we're going to be increasingly doing things like we did in our earnings letter and give you viewer stats on a lot of our projects as we go.

所以他們是——我們對世界各地的製作人非常透明，我們將越來越多地做我們在收益信中所做的事情，並向您提供我們許多項目的觀眾統計數據。

Greg, would you add anything about the top 10?

Greg，您能補充一下有關前 10 名的資訊嗎？

No, I think it's -- you covered it well.

不，我認為是——你講得很好。

And just to make it clear, I mean that top 10, that's a list that's available in the product.

澄清一下，我的意思是前 10 名，這是產品中可用的清單。

So to Ted's point, those members who really think that popularity is an important signal for them on what to watch, we'll have that available to them.

因此，就 Ted 的觀點而言，那些真正認為受歡迎程度是他們觀看內容的重要訊號的會員，我們將為他們提供該訊號。

Great.

偉大的。

Greg, I'd like to ask you a couple questions on the technology of the product side.

Greg，我想問你幾個關於產品方面技術的問題。

First, maybe an update on partnerships.

首先，也許是合作關係的最新情況。

We talked about it a bit on the last call.

我們在上次通話中對此進行了一些討論。

I'd love to expand, in the U.S., the pay-TV partnerships seem to be a big part of the focus.

我很想在美國擴大付費電視合作關係似乎是焦點的重要組成部分。

Can you talk about whether that's become a bigger part of the subscriber acquisition product?

您能談談這是否已成為訂戶取得產品的重要組成部分嗎？

Is it steady state?

是穩態嗎？

Help us understand where we are in that process.

幫助我們了解我們在這個過程中所處的位置。

Yes.

是的。

It's important, I think, to ground it in the partner-based acquisition component when you think about all the devices that we operate on and just being able to find and sign up new license, that's a healthy chunk of our acquisition.

我認為，當您考慮我們運行的所有設備並且能夠找到並簽署新許可證時，將其置於基於合作夥伴的收購組件中非常重要，這是我們收購的一個健康部分。

But then when you get to the bundles, which I think often people think about partners equals bundles, that's relatively small, but it's a nice incremental acquisition channel for us.

但是當你談到捆綁時，我認為人們經常認為合作夥伴等於捆綁，這相對較小，但對我們來說這是一個很好的增量獲取管道。

And so we'll seek to grow that.

因此，我們將努力發展這一點。

We think there's a bunch of opportunities both in the United States with the existing partners and expanding the number of bundles and sort of the bundle availability.

我們認為，在美國與現有合作夥伴以及擴大捆綁包數量和捆綁包可用性方面都有很多機會。

We'll also seek to expand that globally because we think there's a tremendous number of opportunities globally to add those kind of partners and make it easier for members to sign up.

我們還將尋求在全球範圍內擴大這一範圍，因為我們認為全球有大量的機會來增加此類合作夥伴並使會員更容易註冊。

We did a couple this quarter, whether it's Canal+ and Sky Italia with sort of new partners for our bundles.

本季我們做了一些合作，無論是 Canal+ 和 Sky Italia，還是我們的捆綁包的新合作夥伴。

But we've also done things like take KDDI, a mobile operator in Japan, and be able just to expand our presence across their offering, which makes it again an easier place, more attractive for more members to sign up.

但我們也做了一些事情，例如以日本行動電信商KDDI 為例，能夠擴大我們在他們的產品中的影響力，這又使其成為一個更容易的地方，對更多會員註冊更具吸引力。

So it's still small, a relatively small fraction of our acquisition, but it's a nice, good, incremental way to access a member base, member to be based.

所以它仍然很小，占我們收購的相對較小的一部分，但它是訪問會員基礎和待建立會員的一種很好的漸進方式。

It's less technology for less early adopter, and we can just make it super simple for them to sign up.

對於較少的早期採用者來說，它的技術含量較低，我們可以讓他們的註冊變得超級簡單。

Okay.

好的。

Another topic that we haven't talked about in a little while is that of password sharing or stealing or whatever you want to call it.

我們已經有一段時間沒有討論的另一個主題是密碼共享或竊取或任何你想稱之為的話題。

As we get to a more mature growth trajectory in the U.S., does that come back into being something that's important for you to address?

隨著美國的成長軌跡更加成熟，這個問題是否又成為您需要解決的重要問題？

And how do you address it without alienating a certain portion of your user base?

如何在不疏遠部分用戶群的情況下解決這個問題？

How do you strike a balance there?

你如何在那裡取得平衡？

I think we continue to monitor it, so we're looking at the situation.

我認為我們會繼續監控它，所以我們正在研究情況。

We'll see, again, those consumer-friendly ways to push on the edges of that.

我們將再次看到那些對消費者友善的方式來推動這一點。

But I think we've got no big plans to announce at this point in time in terms of doing something differently there.

但我認為我們目前還沒有什麼重大計劃要宣布，以在那裡做一些不同的事情。

Okay.

好的。

And so Spence, I'd like to ask you a couple questions on the financial side, the first around margins and contribution margin.

史賓塞，我想問你幾個關於財務方面的問題，第一個是關於利潤和邊際貢獻的。

In the past, you've spoken to a 40% domestic contribution margin target.

過去，您曾談到 40% 的國內邊際貢獻率目標。

Is that something that you still view as achievable?

您仍然認為這是可以實現的嗎？

And maybe within that context when we talk about competition, do we need to spend more, say, on the marketing side than you previously anticipated as you achieve what you want to achieve on the subscriber side?

也許在這種背景下，當我們談論競爭時，當您在訂戶方面實現您想要實現的目標時，我們是否需要在行銷方面花費比您之前預期的更多的費用？

Well, first, on margins, I guess -- so the good news is we did deliver over 40% contribution margin in the U.S. this quarter.

嗯，首先是利潤率，我想，好消息是我們本季在美國的貢獻率確實超過了 40%。

It happens to be at the last quarter that we're looking at the business in that way as we talked about it in terms of changing the way we'll be reporting going forward.

恰好在上個季度，我們以這種方式看待業務，因為我們談到了改變我們未來報告的方式。

And we noted in the letter that we'll start reporting our revenues and our subscribers on a regional basis and then global operating margin.

我們在信中指出，我們將開始按地區報告我們的收入和訂戶，然後是全球營業利潤率。

That's really because, as we move to a world where we're both licensing and producing more and more original programming on a global basis, segment margin is not really the way we think about the business.

這實際上是因為，當我們進入一個在全球範圍內授權並製作越來越多原創節目的世界時，細分利潤率並不是我們真正考慮業務的方式。

Increasingly, we think about managing to a global margin.

我們越來越多地考慮管理全球利潤。

We are breaking out that regional reporting on the revenue and subscriber level because at that level, we are directly driving our business at a regional level.

我們正在對收入和用戶層級進行區域報告，因為在這個層級上，我們直接推動我們在區域層級的業務。

As we talked about this quarter, 90% of our growth is outside the U.S. And so we think about it more than just U.S. versus international.

正如我們在本季度談到的，我們 90% 的成長來自美國以外的地區，因此我們考慮的不僅僅是美國與國際市場。

Frankly, we -- in terms of our continuing to grow our margins, again, we look at it on a global basis.

坦白說，就我們的利潤率持續成長而言，我們再次在全球範圍內進行審視。

We're driving, we think, scale and efficiencies and margin growth across the board.

我們認為，我們正在全面推動規模、效率和利潤成長。

Our content investment, while it's growing, it's growing slower than our revenue growth.

我們的內容投資雖然在成長，但成長速度低於我們的收入成長。

And marketing, we'll market as we think appropriate and needed to grow our business.

在行銷方面，我們將根據我們認為適當且需要發展業務的方式進行行銷。

We had a very large increase in our marketing spend last year.

去年我們的行銷支出大幅增加。

So this year, you're seeing spend at similar levels to last year, and that's because we learned a lot.

因此，今年，您會看到與去年相似的支出水平，這是因為我們學到了很多。

We learned a lot along the way.

一路上我們學到了很多。

We'll continue to test and learn.

我們將繼續測試和學習。

So we find new and different ways to reach our members every day.

因此，我們每天都在尋找新的、不同的方式來聯繫我們的會員。

And so we'll continue to turn the knobs there.

所以我們將繼續在那裡轉動旋鈕。

But we're very conscious about continuing to drive up our operating margins on that global basis, the 300 basis point increase this year to 13%, and we talked about in the letter committing to 16% next year.

但我們非常有意識地要繼續提高全球範圍內的營運利潤率，今年將提高 300 個基點至 13%，我們在信中談到明年將提高至 16%。

So we'll continue to do that by driving efficiencies in the business while doing the requisite marketing to reach our members.

因此，我們將繼續透過提高業務效率來實現這一目標，同時進行必要的行銷來吸引我們的會員。

And maybe we'll piggyback off some of those fundamental trends you just mentioned and talk about free cash flow as well.

也許我們會借鏡您剛才提到的一些基本趨勢，並討論自由現金流。

A little bit of a different dynamic with the investment on the cash side, but you talk about progress toward turning free cash flow positive.

現金的投資略有不同，但您談到了將自由現金流轉為正值的進展。

Can you give us insight on some of the levers there, how to think about -- and you referenced the coming year, just maybe just highlight that for us.

您能否向我們介紹那裡的一些槓桿，以及如何思考 - 您提到了來年，也許只是為我們強調這一點。

And then really the progression off the 2020 levels, what your expectation is.

然後是 2020 年水準的實際進展，您的期望是什麼。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Again, we're committed to, starting in 2020, improve our negative free cash flow profile.

我們再次承諾，從 2020 年開始，改善我們的負自由現金流狀況。

We talked about this year that we're expecting roughly negative $3.5 billion of negative free cash flow.

我們談到，今年我們預計負自由現金流約為負 35 億美元。

Again, that is investment in future content to be delivered on our service.

同樣，這是對我們服務中未來內容的投資。

So we are profitable.

所以我們是有獲利的。

We're increasingly profitable.

我們的獲利能力越來越強。

So that's why we see in 2020, as we continue to grow our profit margins, continue to scale our business at what you've seen this year, which is nearly 30% revenue growth and then increasing margins, that ultimately translates into more cash flow that can be converted into content investment and improving that profile.

因此，這就是為什麼我們在 2020 年看到，隨著我們繼續提高利潤率，繼續以今年的規模擴大我們的業務，收入增長近 30%，然後利潤率不斷增加，最終轉化為更多的現金流這可以轉化為內容投資並改善形象。

So -- and we've also been transitioning from licensed second-run content into original programming, so that created some of that working capital pressure.

因此，我們也一直在從授權的第二輪內容過渡到原創節目，因此這造成了一些營運資金壓力。

But now the bulk of our content investment is original programming, so we've made it a long way up that curve.

但現在我們的大部分內容投資都是原創節目，因此我們已經在這條曲線上取得了長足的進步。

So the combination of our scale and our business model transition is well along, and that's why you're going to start to see that free cash flow improvement next year.

因此，我們的規模和業務模式轉型相結合進展順利，這就是為什麼您明年將開始看到自由現金流的改善。

And then beyond that, we're not going to give specific projections.

除此之外，我們不會給出具體的預測。

We'll continue to scale gradually towards self-funding while we continue to go after our strategic priorities.

我們將繼續逐步擴大規模，實現自籌資金，同時繼續追求我們的策略重點。

Mike, we have time for 1 or 2 last questions, please.

麥克，我們有時間回答最後一兩個問題。

Sure.

當然。

Well, I'll take the opportunity to finish with a question for each of you, so maybe get a little bit of a 5-answer bonus here.

好吧，我將藉此機會向你們每個人提出一個問題，這樣也許可以在這裡獲得一點 5 個答案的獎勵。

But I'm curious what each of you, if you wouldn't mind sharing, are most looking forward to as we get through the next quarter and you come to your next earnings interview.

但我很好奇，如果你們不介意分享的話，當我們度過下一個季度並且你們即將參加下一次收益面試時，你們最期待什麼。

What's the one thing that you're most excited about being able to talk about as we look out there.

當我們展望未來時，您最興奮能夠談論的一件事是什麼？

Maybe I'll start with you, Spencer, and we'll -- for convenience, we'll work backward alphabetically by last name, so you guys can figure that out.

也許我會從你開始，斯賓塞，為了方便起見，我們將按姓氏的字母順序向後排列，這樣你們就可以弄清楚。

Spencer, go ahead.

史賓塞，繼續吧。

Great.

偉大的。

I guess for me, maybe fewer questions from investors on competition, but I think that's pretty unlikely.

我想對我來說，投資者關於競爭的問題可能會更少，但我認為這不太可能。

So I'll say, what I'm, I guess, really excited about in the coming quarter is actually 6 Underground, a new original film from Ted's team.

所以我想說，我想在下個季度真正令我興奮的是《6 Underground》，這是 Ted 團隊的一部新原創電影。

I'm a big action film junkie, so super excited about that.

我是一個動作片迷，對此感到非常興奮。

I guess I come next.

我想我是下一個。

So I'm super excited about The Irishman actually, can't wait to see that film.

所以我其實對《愛爾蘭人》感到非常興奮，迫不及待想看那部電影。

And also, frankly, it will be nice to have some of these competitive launches in the rearview mirror so that we can continue to look forward and all the things that we're excited about in terms of this huge global opportunity.

而且，坦白說，如果我們能在後視鏡中看到一些具有競爭力的產品，那就太好了，這樣我們就可以繼續展望未來，看到這個巨大的全球機會讓我們感到興奮的所有事情。

Great.

偉大的。

I'll go to Ted next.

接下來我要去泰德那裡。

Look, what I'm most excited about, we've got to be able to -- we have to do exactly what we're doing right now, which is we have to continue to make your favorite show, and we need to continue to deliver it to you seamlessly.

聽著，我最興奮的是，我們必須能夠——我們必須做我們現在正在做的事情，那就是我們必須繼續製作你們最喜歡的節目，我們需要繼續無縫地交付給你們。

And none of that changes in the upcoming.

未來這些都不會改變。

And I think when I look at the quarter ahead, these guys already mentioned Irishman and 6 Underground, but I also think there are some incredible things in between there with things like Marriage Story, like The Two Popes from Fernando Meirelles and Laundromat from Steven Soderbergh.

我認為當我展望未來季度時，這些人已經提到了《愛爾蘭人》和《地下六號》，但我也認為其中有一些令人難以置信的東西，例如《婚姻故事》，例如費爾南多·梅雷萊斯的《兩位教宗》和史蒂芬索德柏的自助洗衣店。

These are the most iconic directors of our time making their next film at Netflix.

這些是我們這個時代最具標誌性的導演，他們正在 Netflix 製作下一部電影。

We have a building full of animators who have made the best animation for over the last decade making their next projects at Netflix.

我們的大樓裡擠滿了動畫師，他們在過去十年中製作了最好的動畫，並在 Netflix 上製作了他們的下一個項目。

And I'm really excited to be able to come in and update you on those 2 over the next quarters.

我很高興能夠在接下來的幾季向您介紹這兩個方面的最新情況。

And I'm pretty consistent with that.

我對此非常一致。

I think the opportunity to be able to expose our members to the kind of films that we are producing right now that are being released on Netflix in such a compelling way is going to be super exciting.

我認為，能夠有機會向我們的會員展示我們正在製作的、正在 Netflix 上以如此引人入勝的方式發行的電影，這將是非常令人興奮的。

And it's super fun to sort of look back on that and see how that goes.

回顧過去並看看事情進展如何是非常有趣的。

I look forward to blowing away the numbers.

我期待著打破這些數字。

Accuracy is good when we have it, only accuracy.

當我們擁有準確性時，準確性就很好，只有準確性。

We have accuracy.

我們有準確性。

But it's super fun to blow away the numbers.

但打破這些數字是非常有趣的。

So fingers crossed, we'll see every quarter.

所以祈禱吧，我們每季都會看到。

It's a -- the forecast is a 50-50 guess, as you see for this year, and we'll see when it comes.

正如你今年看到的那樣，預測是 50-50，我們將拭​​目以待。