Netflix Inc (NFLX) 2014 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Netflix Q3 2014 earnings call. I am David Wells, CFO. Joining me today on the Company side is Reed Hastings, our CEO, and Ted Sarandos, our Chief Content Officer. Interviewing us on our results today will be Michael Nathanson from MoffettNathanson. And for his last time, Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan. Jug will be -- Doug will be handing the baton over to Mark Mahaney from RBC next quarter.

歡迎參加 Netflix 2014 年第三季財報電話會議。我是財務長大衛威爾斯。今天與我一起加入公司的是我們的執行長里德·黑斯廷斯 (Reed Hastings) 和首席內容官特德·薩蘭多斯 (Ted Sarandos)。今天，來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Michael Nathanson 將對我們的結果進行採訪。最後一次是來自摩根大通的道格·安穆斯 (Doug Anmuth)。 Jug 將在下個季度將接力棒交給 RBC 的 Mark Mahaney。

I think Michael, you have our first question, so I'll turn it over the to Michael.

我想邁克爾，你有我們的第一個問題，所以我將把它交給邁克爾。

The first question will be to Reed. I think the obvious question to ask is given the missing subscribers this quarter in the US and the slightly slower growth next quarter in the US, what gives you confidence that you're still on the middle part of the growth curve on the S-curve, especially given the fact that you have a grandfather price increase a couple years down the road? So anything on that.

第一個問題將問里德。我認為要問的一個明顯問題是，考慮到美國本季度訂閱用戶的流失以及美國下季度增長的略微放緩，是什麼讓您有信心仍然處於 S 曲線增長曲線的中間部分，特別是考慮到幾年後價格會大幅上漲？所以任何事情都可以。

Sure, Michael. We added 3 million net subscribers in Q3, so about a 1 million a month. And then in Q4, we're forecasting 4 million. If you look just at the domestic side, however, that's about 1 million, and about 2 million in Q4. And we're hoping for big numbers. We're always working hard on that.

當然，邁克爾。第三季我們增加了 300 萬淨訂戶，每月增加約 100 萬。然後在第四季度，我們預測 400 萬。然而，如果只看國內方面，這個數字約為 100 萬，第四季約為 200 萬。我們希望有大量的數據。我們一直在為此努力。

But when you ask what's the confidence that we're on the middle part, we really have to feel our way along quarter by quarter as we improve the content. And if you think about the general society all moving to Internet TV, like HBO's announcement today, there's a lot of feeling of just everyone is going there. Not exactly sure the rate of transfer, but Internet TV is going to be everything in couple years.

但當你問我們對處於中間部分的信心有多大時，我們確實必須在改進內容的過程中逐季摸索。如果你想想整個社會都在轉向網路電視，就像 HBO 今天宣布的那樣，你會感覺到每個人都在轉向網路電視。不太確定傳輸率，但幾年後互聯網電視將成為一切。

And Reed, just to follow up on that, why is 60 million to 90 million still the right number in the US, given what we saw here in 3Q and what you're looking at for the fourth quarter?

Reed，我想跟進一下，鑑於我們在第三季度看到的情況以及您對第四季度的預期，為什麼 6000 萬到 9000 萬在美國仍然是正確的數字？

Well, everything that we're seeing is completely consistent with the whole society, not only the US, but around the world, is moving to Internet video and Internet television. And so, I think it's completely consistent with what we're seeing. We're seeing -- we saw Starz a week ago announce that they're doing an Internet video service. We saw HBO. Perhaps there will be other providers over the coming weeks. So think of all the big networks are moving to Internet video, and it's just becoming a very large opportunity.

嗯，我們所看到的一切與整個社會完全一致，不僅是美國，而是全世界，都在轉向網路視訊和網路電視。因此，我認為這與我們所看到的完全一致。我們看到——一周前我們看到 Starz 宣布他們正在提供網路視訊服務。我們看了HBO。也許未來幾週內還會有其他提供者。因此，考慮一下所有大型網路都正在轉向互聯網視頻，這正在成為一個非常大的機會。

David, given that revenues came in line, subscribers came in lighter in the US, was there a mix shift amongst your pricing tiers in the third quarter?

大衛，考慮到收入穩定，美國的訂戶數量減少，第三季度你們的定價層之間是否存在混合變化？

Not really. Before I jump into the question, I realize that I didn't provide the Safe Harbor statement. So we will be making forward-looking statements during this interview, and actual results may vary. There's your proof that this is not a scripted interview.

並不真地。在我開始回答這個問題之前，我意識到我沒有提供安全港聲明。因此，我們將在這次訪談中做出前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能會有所不同。有證據表明這不是一次有腳本的採訪。

Michael, back to your question. In terms of really the revenue number, we sort of missed on the total subscriber line, and there is a bit of a delay between the folks getting a 30-day free trial and the revenue coming in. So that would explain most of it. There's a little bit of a mix shift in terms of ASP being slightly higher than we forecasted. But most of it was just because of the revenue having a little bit of a lag.

邁克爾，回到你的問題。就實際收入數字而言，我們有點錯過了總訂閱人數，而且在獲得 30 天免費試用的人們與收入進來之間存在一些延遲。所以這可以解釋大部分問題。平均售價略高於我們的預測，存在一些混合變化。但大部分只是因為收入有點滯後。

Reed, can you talk about the strength of subscribers in the new Western European markets in 3Q, how they performed early on versus your expectations? And then also, how much do you know here about conversion rates as they're just coming off of their one-month free trials and how is that impacting your guidance for 4Q?

Reed，您能談談第三季新西歐市場的訂戶實力嗎？他們早期的表現與您的預期相比如何？另外，您對轉換率了解多少，因為它們剛結束一個月的免費試用，這對您對第四季度的指導有何影響？

Well, we had a very successful launch. We've done numerous launches now, starting in Canada four years ago, so we're getting better and better at it. We've got some of the fastest integration with MVPD set tops that we've ever seen in the world.

嗯，我們的發布非常成功。從四年前在加拿大開始，我們現在已經進行了多次發布，所以我們在這方面做得越來越好。我們與 MVPD 機上盒的整合速度是世界上前所未見的。

In the US, we still don't really have anything material. In the UK, it took us a year and-a-half to get Virgin, and we were able to announce Orange and Deutsche Telekom, and these are all going live shortly or just turned live or going live over the next couple months. So really a great successful launch that portends well for us, and that's built into the guidance.

在美國，我們仍然沒有任何實質的東西。在英國，我們花了一年半的時間才獲得維珍，並且我們宣布了 Orange 和德國電信，這些都將很快上線，或者剛剛上線，或者在接下來的幾個月內上線。所以，這確實是一次巨大的成功發布，對我們來說是個好兆頭，這也被納入了指南中。

So we're feeling just incredible about international. When you think that from starting four years ago in Canada through to the Netherlands, so almost 40 countries as a whole are now profitable, just an average of two or three years after starting. It's a great success, and that's why we're continuing to invest so rapidly in international.

所以我們對國際化感到難以置信。想想看，從四年前的加拿大開始，一直到荷蘭，現在幾乎 40 個國家都實現了盈利，而平均來說，開始後兩三年就實現了盈利。這是一個巨大的成功，這就是我們繼續如此快速地在國際市場投資的原因。

Okay. I have a two-parter for Reed and Ted on HBO GO. Today, the big news out of the Time-Warner Investor Day was the announcement of an over-the-top service to be launched next year in the US.

好的。我在 HBO GO 上有一部關於里德和泰德的兩部劇。今天，時代華納投資者日的重大新聞是宣布明年將在美國推出 OTT 服務。

The two questions would be for Reed, what do you think the impact on competition will be as they start really pushing that product? And for Ted, the take-away was they might start sourcing some of Time Warner's -- putting Time Warner's content into HBO on kids and maybe on movies and TV shows. So talk about those two things.

對里德來說，這兩個問題是，您認為當他們開始真正推動產品時，對競爭的影響將會是什麼？對 Ted 來說，他們的收穫是他們可能會開始採購時代華納的一些內容——將時代華納的內容放入 HBO 的兒童節目中，或許還會出現在電影和電視節目中。那麼就說說這兩件事吧。

Sure. Absolutely. On the consumer side, it's one more channel. So already consumers subscribed to us and Hulu and Amazon and they do pay-per-view and they do DVD and they do cable. So there's so many great sources of entertainment. And consumers subscribe to many of these.

當然。絕對地。在消費者方面，這又是一個管道。因此，消費者已經訂閱了我們、Hulu 和亞馬遜，他們提供按次付費、DVD 和有線電視服務。所以有很多很棒的娛樂來源。消費者訂閱了其中的許多內容。

So there's not much of a change in the direct competitive landscape. We and HBO have completely different content. So I don't think it will be a significant impact at the consumer level. As we bid for content, that's more significant, and I'll turn that over to Ted.

因此，直接競爭格局沒有太大變化。我們和HBO有完全不同的內容。所以我認為這不會對消費者層面產生重大影響。當我們對內容進行競價時，這變得更加重要，我會將其交給 Ted。

Yes, I'd say similarly that HBO is another buyer in the market, if they do choose to start licensing from -- even from their sister companies. And different companies have different views of how they look to vertically integrate. But in this case, I think they have an established revenue model for that content, with buyers like Netflix and others that they will have to competitively bid in the market for.

是的，我想說的是，如果 HBO 確實選擇從他們的姐妹公司開始授權，那麼他們就是市場上的另一個買家。不同的公司對於如何進行垂直整合有不同的看法。但在這種情況下，我認為他們已經為該內容建立了一個既定的收入模式，他們必須在市場上競爭性地競標，才能吸引 Netflix 等買家。

Reed, just following up on HBO GO and the competitive dynamic there, do you have a view on how it could be priced and distributed when it ultimately comes out?

Reed，我正在跟進 HBO GO 及其競爭動態，您對它最終推出時的定價和發行方式有何看法？

In Nordics, they've competed with us since launch two years now with HBO Nordics. And there, they chose to price on top of our pricing. Now, that pricing is higher because VAT and cost of living, so it's not definitely indicative. But they've been quite aggressive in the Nordics and we've stayed well ahead.

在北歐，自 HBO Nordics 推出兩年以來，他們一直在與我們競爭。在那裡，他們選擇在我們的定價之上定價。現在，由於增值稅和生活成本，定價較高，因此這並不具有絕對的指示性。但他們在北歐非常有侵略性，而我們一直保持領先。

It looks like this quarter -- I'll throw to David -- that the guidance you provided on free stubs in international markets missed our expectations and your expectations. What is going on there? How could free trial subs miss expectations?

看起來這個季度——我會向大衛提出——你們提供的關於國際市場免費存根的指導沒有達到我們的預期和你們的預期。那裡發生了什麼事？免費試用潛水艇怎麼會達不到預期？

Well, there's a number of ways. We just didn't grow as much as we thought we were going to, in terms of bringing folks in. So across a number of markets, we were lighter, versus our forecast, than we expected. And you collect all of those markets together, and you get to a point where you missed on the total number, but you made it on the paid number.

嗯，有很多方法。在吸引人才方面，我們的成長速度沒有我們想像的那麼快。因此，在許多市場上，與我們的預測相比，我們的表現比我們預期的要輕。你把所有這些市場收集在一起，然後你就錯過了總數，但你在付費數量上做到了。

And when David talks about missing, remember that what we're providing is our internal forecast, and we expect to miss pretty frequently. That's the midpoint, essentially, and so we'll be a little above that, a little below that every quarter.

當大衛談到錯過時，請記住，我們提供的是我們的內部預測，我們預計會經常錯過。從本質上講，這就是中點，因此每個季度我們都會略高於該值，略低於該值。

And David, you called out in the letter, basically, that the increase in pricing may have had some impact in 3Q, and perhaps a greater impact than you saw in the second quarter, perhaps because Orange Is the New Black offset that. Beside pricing, is there anything else that you can point to in the US, in particular?

大衛，你在信中指出，基本上，定價的上漲可能對第三季度產生了一些影響，而且可能比你在第二季度看到的影響更大，也許是因為《女子監獄》抵消了這一影響。除了定價之外，您還有什麼可以指出的，特別是在美國？

Any given quarter, there's a number of swing factors involved. We said that was our leading indicator or leading factor in the quarter. The Home Depot breach certainly brought down some of our -- put a number of people on payment hold. But we felt like if we provided three or four more swing factors, it felt a little bit like an excuse, so we didn't do that, but there were certainly other factors at play.

任何一個季度，都會涉及許多波動因素。我們說這是我們本季的領先指標或領先因素。家得寶的違規事件無疑讓我們的一些人陷入困境，導致一些人被暫停付款。但我們覺得如果我們提供三、四個以上的搖擺因素，感覺有點像藉口，所以我們沒有這樣做，但肯定還有其他因素在起作用。

We had a strong comp last year with releasing Orange in July versus in Q2 of this year, and we talked a little bit about that. We certainly saw some effects from the Home Depot breach. And then, there's two or three more of those that we could talk about, but they're minor compared to what we think is the major one.

去年我們在 7 月發布了 Orange，與今年第二季相比，我們有一個強大的對比，我們對此進行了一些討論。我們當然看到了家得寶違規事件的一些影響。然後，還有兩三個我們可以討論的問題，但與我們認為的主要問題相比，它們都是次要的。

Reed, we get a lot of questions about France versus Germany as markets. Can you -- I know it's early days, can you share some information as what you're seeing on initial take-up rates or excitement around -- in France and Germany for Netflix?

里德，我們收到了很多關於法國與德國市場的問題。我知道現在還為時過早，您能否分享一些關於 Netflix 在法國和德國的初始接受率或興奮程度的資訊？

Absolutely. France and Germany are unique markets and so is Brazil a unique market and so is Norway. Now, we're over 45 of these unique markets and every market we've been able to figure out, over time, what's the right mix of content. And think of basic consumer behavior, as they want control, they want Internet video, because they get to watch on any screen. They get to watch any time they want. They get to binge watch. Those are very universal values.

絕對地。法國和德國是獨特的市場，巴西也是獨特的市場，挪威也是。現在，我們已經涵蓋了超過 45 個這樣的獨特市場，隨著時間的推移，我們已經能夠在每個市場中找出正確的內容組合。想想基本的消費者行為，因為他們想要控制，他們想要網路視頻，因為他們可以在任何螢幕上觀看。他們可以隨時觀看。他們開始瘋狂觀看。這些都是非常普遍的價值觀。

And so we're gaining increasing confidence that Netflix is highly relevant around the world, and that's why we're just looking forward to continuing to expand next year.

因此，我們越來越相信 Netflix 在全球範圍內具有高度相關性，這就是為什麼我們期待明年繼續擴張。

And just following up, Reed, and perhaps Ted here, as we talk about the international business, what percentage of content in new international markets is local? How do you know what the right level is here? And do you feel like you have enough currently in France and Germany?

里德（Reed），也許還有特德（Ted），當我們談論國際業務時，請跟進，新的國際市場中本地內容的百分比是多少？您怎麼知道這裡的正確等級是多少？您覺得目前在法國和德國的生活夠了嗎？

Doug, I'll jump in there. It's similarly placed as the other markets have been, around 15% to 20% local, with another -- with the 80%, 85% being either Hollywood or other international content. One of our first indicators that we are getting the mix right is how many hours of viewing people are participating in. And in France and Germany, the viewing hours are quite healthy relative to all of our other launches. So we're -- the consumers are finding the things they want.

道格，我會跳進去。它的定位與其他市場類似，大約 15% 到 20% 是本地內容，另一個市場是好萊塢或其他國際內容，其中 80%、85% 是本地內容。顯示我們組合正確的第一個指標是人們參與觀看的時間。在法國和德國，相對於我們所有其他發布的產品，觀看時間相當健康。所以我們——消費者正在尋找他們想要的東西。

The tricky thing is figuring out is the local content something that people want in the long term. Because when we first goat a new market, I think people are mostly excited about those things that they didn't have access to before.

棘手的事情是弄清楚人們長期想要的本地內容。因為當我們第一次進入一個新市場時，我認為人們大多對那些他們以前無法接觸到的東西感到興奮。

So Orange Is the New Black was by far the most watched show in both France and Germany, and in fact all of the markets that we launched. So it tells you that with all the differences in taste, that they all rallied around that show.

《女子監獄》是迄今為止在法國和德國乃至我們推出的所有市場上收視率最高的節目。所以它告訴你，儘管品味有差異，但他們都聚集在那個節目周圍。

I do think too that we're offering those markets unprecedented choice, not just in programming, but also in choice of language where you can watch the show either in native language with subtitles or dubbed in local language, which is something that's not been available to consumers in those markets before.

我也確實認為，我們為這些市場提供了前所未有的選擇，不僅在節目方面，而且在語言選擇方面，您可以用帶有字幕的母語觀看節目，也可以用當地語言配音，這是目前無法提供的之前向這些市場的消費者提供。

David, in the press release today or the letter to shareholders, you mention that Canada's now at the same margin as the US after four years. How different are the penetration rates between those markets? I know you don't get into the actual rates, but how different are acceptance rates there? And is that the threshold for profitability, in terms of US-level profitability around the world.

大衛，在今天的新聞稿或致股東的信中，您提到四年後加拿大現在與美國處於相同的利潤率。這些市場之間的滲透率有何不同？我知道您沒有了解實際的比率，但是那裡的接受率有多大差異？就全球美國水準的獲利能力而言，這就是獲利能力的門檻。

You're right, we don't get into specifics, but the penetration, the rate of growth in any given market can be different. So the rate of growth between Canada, between Europe and between Latin America can be very different.

你是對的，我們不討論細節，但任何特定市場的滲透率和成長率都可能不同。因此，加拿大之間、歐洲之間和拉丁美洲之間的成長率可能非常不同。

But just reiterating, in terms of the financial performance and the return on investment, in 2012, we spent nearly $400 million in terms of contribution loss on international. And what we were telling you today is that is now a positive number. So in little less than two years, we've made great progress.

但重申一下，就財務表現和投資回報而言，2012年，我們在國際上的貢獻損失支出了近4億美元。我們今天告訴您的是，現在這是一個正數。因此，在不到兩年的時間裡，我們取得了巨大的進步。

We think the international is a very good investment. So some markets are going to take longer than others. The content may be priced lower in those markets, so the economics are very different market to market.

我們認為國際是一項非常好的投資。因此，某些市場將比其他市場需要更長的時間。內容在這些市場的定價可能較低，因此不同市場的經濟效益非常不同。

David, you mentioned in the letter a little bit about the changes in the VAT in Europe that go into effect in 2015. Can you talk here about how those new rules will impact Netflix in Europe and how much profit is at risk here? Can you just perhaps quantify things beyond just talking qualitatively about it?

David，您在信中提到了 2015 年生效的歐洲增值稅變化。您能否在此談談這些新規則將如何影響 Netflix 在歐洲的業務以及這裡面臨多少利潤風險？除了定性地談論它之外，你還能量化事物嗎？

Sure, so Luxembourg had an arrangement with the EU where if you were headquartered there, you could charge a 15% Luxembourg VAT rate. The VAT rates, they vary from Switzerland at 8% on the low end to the Nordic countries at 25% at the high end.

當然，盧森堡與歐盟達成了一項協議，如果您的總部設在那裡，您可以收取 15% 的盧森堡增值稅稅率。增值稅稅率各不相同，從瑞士的低端 8% 到北歐國家的高端 25%。

For us, we're talking about an internal cost change to Netflix, because we're not going to pass that along to the consumer, of about 5% on average of European revenue. So some of those rates are going from 15% to 25%. Some of them are going from 15% to 19% and so forth. But a weighted average that you can ballpark is 5% of European rev.

對我們來說，我們正在談論 Netflix 的內部成本變化，因為我們不會將其轉嫁給消費者，即歐洲平均收入的 5% 左右。因此，其中一些利率從 15% 升至 25%。其中一些從 15% 上升到 19% 等等。但你可以估計的加權平均值是歐洲轉速的 5%。

David or Reed, can you give us an update on 2015 international expansion plans? You've called out you're going to keep opening up new markets. How should investors think about the speed of those openings and investments in 2015?

David 或 Reed，您能為我們介紹 2015 年國際擴張計畫的最新情況嗎？您曾表示將繼續開拓新市場。投資人該如何看待2015年這些開業和投資的速度？

We're still sorting that out, Michael. Trying to figure out which markets are most attractive, and we'll have some announcements to make over the next year. If you look at our long-term strategy, we've been extremely consistent over the past three years, saying that we're going of to take all of our profits and put them into international expansion, because we see it as such a big opportunity.

我們仍在解決這個問題，邁克爾。試圖找出哪些市場最具吸引力，我們將在明年發布一些公告。如果你看看我們的長期策略，我們在過去三年裡一直非常一致，我們說我們將把所有利潤投入到國際擴張中，因為我們認為這是一個很大的目標。機會。

So think of that as the base case, if we can move quickly enough, then we can deploy all of those profits in highly productive ways.

因此，將此視為基本情況，如果我們能夠足夠快地採取行動，那麼我們就可以以高效的方式部署所有這些利潤。

I would say to give you some sense of the magnitude, we peaked out of international loss at $105 million. We guided in Q4 to number that's slightly lower than that. In terms of the potential down the road, we certainly could see that level of investment.

我想說的是，為了讓您對規模有所了解，我們的國際損失達到了 1.05 億美元的頂峰。我們在第四季的指導數字略低於該數字。就未來的潛力而言，我們當然可以看到這樣的投資水準。

Thank you. So following up on that, Reed and perhaps David as well, Reed, you were quoted about a month ago as saying that it would take three to five years for a single country to get to breakeven, and then also that it could take Europe 5 to 10 years overall to be breakeven. And then also that you want to be fully global including China.

謝謝。因此，接下來，里德，也許還有大衛，里德，大約一個月前有人引用你的話說，一個國家需要三到五年才能達到收支平衡，而且可能需要歐洲 5到10年才能實現損益平衡。然後你還想完全全球化，包括中國。

Can you help us sort these out? And in particular, do you still believe that international contribution margins can be comparable to US margins in a more mature state?

你能幫我們解決這些問題嗎？特別是，您是否仍然認為國際邊際貢獻率可以與更成熟狀態的美國邊際水平相媲美？

Yes, we're making great progress on international. We gave you the proof point on Canada, having gotten there. We're continuing to make progress in all those markets towards having a similar contribution -- to contribution profit to the US and contribution margin. So feeling great about that.

是的，我們在國際化方面取得了巨大進步。我們已經向您提供了加拿大的證據。我們將繼續在所有這些市場上取得進展，以實現類似的貢獻——為美國貢獻利潤和貢獻邊際收益。所以感覺很好。

Three to five years is what we've seen in our experience. We'll see if future markets are slower or faster. There's some variation.

根據我們的經驗，三到五年是這樣的。我們將看看未來的市場是更慢還是更快。有一些變化。

And then the overall Europe picture is because we keep adding new markets. So that's why that's a longer time frame, because it's a cascade from the very beginning.

然後整個歐洲的情況是因為我們不斷增加新市場。這就是為什麼這是一個更長的時間框架，因為它從一開始就是一個級聯。

And just to clarify on that, you still think that that's the right kind of time frame for Europe overall, cascading from the beginning?

為了澄清這一點，您仍然認為這對整個歐洲來說是正確的時間框架，從一開始就層疊起來？

Yes, there's nothing that's changed.

是的，沒有任何改變。

Okay. Ted, as you start buying rights like Gotham worldwide, you start seeing some markets like Australia acknowledge that you have the rights to Gotham in those markets. How do you balance the need to basically buy global rights with a desire to be more measured as you expand internationally?

好的。泰德，當您開始在全球範圍內購買《Gotham》的版權時，您開始看到澳大利亞等一些市場承認您在這些市場擁有《Gotham》的版權。您如何平衡基本購買全球版權的需求與在國際擴張時更加謹慎的願望？

The one thing that's been really encouraging, Michael, is that the -- a lot of our content choices have proven to be extremely global, starting with all of our original series that Orange Is the New Black and House of Cards have been huge successes in not just in Australia but in China, I mean, all over the world. So these buys bode well, I think, for future expansion in all territories.

邁克爾，真正令人鼓舞的一件事是——我們的許多內容選擇已被證明是極其全球化的，從我們所有的原創系列開始，《女子監獄》和《紙牌屋》都取得了巨大的成功。不僅在澳大利亞，而且在中國，我的意思是在全世界。因此，我認為這些收購對於未來在所有領域的擴張來說是個好兆頭。

And right now I believe we've hit a financial tipping point where we can move forward on buying up more territories than we're currently operating in, versus playing catch up, which we had been doing, licensing the territory or creating an original series and then several years later, having to go back and either renegotiate for that series or not have it, like we don't have House of Cards in some of our current expansion territories.

現在我相信我們已經達到了一個財務轉折點，我們可以繼續購買比我們目前經營的更多的地區，而不是追趕，我們一直在做，授權地區或創建原創系列然後幾年後，我們必須回去重新談判該系列，或者不擁有它，就像我們在當前的一些擴展區域中沒有《紙牌屋》一樣。

David, just on international expansion, what do you think the best way is for the street to think about and model your future international markets? So meaning, if we don't know the exact markets in any given year, what is a reasonable expectation for the number of new broadband households that you'd like to address over the next few years? Obviously, there's big implications here for both subs and of course for the bottom line. And do you expect these international launches to continue to be more heavy in 3Q and 4Q or more evenly spread out through the year?

大衛，就國際擴張而言，您認為街頭思考和塑造未來國際市場的最佳方式是什麼？因此，這意味著，如果我們不知道任何一年的確切市場，那麼您對未來幾年要解決的新寬頻家庭數量的合理預期是多少？顯然，這對替補和底線都有很大的影響。您預計這些國際產品發表會在第三季和第四季持續更頻繁，還是全年分佈更均勻？

I've given you some indication of at least the financial magnitude. I don't think we have an addressable broadband household target in mind when we think about the next wave of international expansion. There's a number of execution elements that come into play, how many we think we can do successfully well at the same time or consecutively. And certainly, we're getting closer and closer, as Ted talked about, to a global right.

我已經向您提供了至少財務規模的一些指示。我認為，當我們考慮下一波國際擴張時，我們並沒有考慮到一個可解決的寬頻家庭目標。有許多執行要素在發揮作用，我們認為可以同時或連續成功地完成多少個要素。當然，正如特德所說，我們正越來越接近全球權利。

So in terms of the incremental cost associated with an international launch, we certainly are reflective in some of our produced content today of having a global right or close to a global right. So I would say it's our intent to continue to roll out international. You've got some indication of magnitude on the financial sid, and we intend to continue to pursue it, because it's been a great investment so far.

因此，就與國際發布相關的增量成本而言，我們今天製作的一些內容當然反映了擁有全球權利或接近全球權利。所以我想說，我們的意圖是繼續推出國際業務。您已經在財務方面獲得了一些規模的跡象，我們打算繼續追求它，因為到目前為止這是一項偉大的投資。

David, based on some of our analysis, I think other people feel the same way, it looks like you can add in new markets between 300 and 500 basis points of penetration in the first couple years. Is that consistent with your own data which you have and we've not been able to dig into?

David，根據我們的一些分析，我認為其他人也有同樣的感覺，看起來你可以在前幾年增加 300 到 500 個基點的滲透率的新市場。這與您擁有但我們無法深入挖掘的您自己的數據一致嗎？

We don't provide that level of detail and specificity.

我們不提供這種程度的細節和特異性。

The one thing, David, that we've said in -- as we do in the launch markets is that it took in the US seven years to get to about one-third of broadband households. And that in the developed markets, so not as much LATAM, but for Western Europe that we're targeting those kind of numbers, getting to one-third of households over seven years. So that would be consistent with the trajectory that you just outlined, Michael.

大衛，我們在啟動市場中說過的一件事是，在美國，大約有三分之一的寬頻家庭花了七年的時間。在已開發市場，所以在拉丁美洲，我們的目標不是那麼多，而是在西歐，我們的目標是在七年內覆蓋三分之一的家庭。所以這與你剛才概述的軌跡是一致的，麥可。

Let's shift over a little bit more toward content. So Ted, a couple big announcements recently, certainly Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and also the Adam Sandler deal. I'll just hit on the latter. But can you talk more about how data influenced the decision to do the four-movie deal with Adam Sandler? Can you talk about his global appeal as well, and do you think there are other actors or actresses that could have similar appeal for Netflix going forward?

讓我們更多地轉向內容。特德，最近宣布了幾項重大消息，當然是《臥虎藏龍》和《亞當桑德勒》的交易。我只談後者。但您能否多談談數據如何影響與亞當桑德勒簽訂四部電影協議的決定？您能談談他的全球吸引力嗎？您認為未來還有其他演員可以對 Netflix 產生類似的吸引力嗎？

Sure, Doug. The Adam Sandler decision was driven by following market after market, seeing Adam's films from his deepest catalog to his newest releases, performing -- outperforming -- not only outperforming their box office, but performing wonderfully in every territory, defying conventional wisdom that American comedy doesn't travel.

當然，道格。亞當山德勒(Adam Sandler) 的決定是在追蹤一個又一個市場的情況下做出的，亞當的電影從他最深入的目錄到最新發行的電影，表現出色——不僅超越了票房，而且在每個領域都表現出色，挑戰了美國喜劇的傳統觀念不旅行。

And more importantly, he really performed well in the box office in our key markets like Brazil, like Germany, like the UK. And his last movie was 60% international. So Adam is not only a proven 20-year star, meaning he has a movie that performs well in the box office every summer for 20 years, he is a real global superstar. And we see that in the data, and the more international we get, the more access we have to those data points versus relying on conventional wisdom of generic thinking, like American comedians don't travel so well.

更重要的是，他在巴西、德國、英國等我們的關鍵市場的票房表現確實不錯。他的上一部電影有 60% 是國際化的。所以亞當不僅是一位久經考驗的20年明星，意味著他有一部連續20年每年夏天票房表現出色的電影，他還是一位真正的全球巨星。我們在數據中看到，我們獲得的數據越國際化，我們就越能訪問這些數據點，而不是依賴通用思維的傳統智慧，就像美國喜劇演員不太擅長旅行一樣。

So we're really proud of the deal, and we think that our subscribers are going to love having access to those movies immediately through this new deal.

因此，我們對這筆交易感到非常自豪，我們認為我們的訂閱者會喜歡透過這項新交易立即存取這些電影。

Ted, you mentioned, or the letter mentioned today that it's more efficient for you to buy movies this way than buying in your PayOne window. Could you talk more about that, because it seems to me that if you are a successful film producer, you want to use the windows to monetize all your consumer touch points? Why is it more efficient to do it this way versus PayOne?

Ted，您提到的，或者今天的信中提到的，您以這種方式購買電影比在 PayOne 窗口購買更有效率。您能否詳細談談這一點，因為在我看來，如果您是一名成功的電影製片人，您希望利用窗口將所有消費者接觸點貨幣化？為什麼這樣做比 PayOne 更有效？

There's a couple ways to think about it, Michael; the main one is access to content that people want to watch. I think this long, protracted window model was fine before OnDemand was possible, but consumers now expect to see content sooner and have access to content in earlier windows in the formats that they want to watch.

邁克爾，有幾種方法可以考慮：主要的一個是訪問人們想要觀看的內容。我認為這種長而持久的視窗模型在點播出現之前就很好，但消費者現在希望更快地看到內容，並能夠以他們想要觀看的格式存取早期視窗中的內容。

In this case, we're talking about Netflix and the current pay model doesn't deliver movies to us til about 10 months to a year after theatrical. And in some cases, nine years after theatrical if it's sitting behind someone else's deal.

在本例中，我們討論的是 Netflix，目前的付費模式要等到上映後 10 個月到一年左右才能提供我們電影。在某些情況下，如果它是在其他人的交易後面，則在戲劇上映九年後。

If you look at a successful film, and you roll up all the licensing fees in each territory, it is possible that there's an economic tradeoff that you are paying less to produce the film than you are to license it. And this model, to your point, about do you want to exploit all those other windows. For us, this is programming cost, not an individual P&L on each film.

如果你看一部成功的電影，並且將每個地區的所有許可費用匯總起來，則可能存在經濟權衡，即你製作電影所支付的費用低於許可費用。就您而言，這個模型是關於您是否想要利用所有其他視窗。對我們來說，這是節目製作成本，而不是每部電影的單獨損益。

And the broad point here is especially with the Adam Sandler multi-movie deal, it's establishing a sense in the subscribers of I'm thrilled with Netflix because I'm into Adam Sandler, I watch this, and now the next movie and the next movie comes. Think of it -- with us playing with this idea of episodic and serialized, but now in the movie form. And seeing what kind of great brand allegiances we can create for Adam's fans; that's not everybody, but they're very identifiable. I think it's a very creative approach that Ted's pioneered here.

這裡的主要觀點尤其是亞當桑德勒的多部電影交易，它在訂閱者中建立了一種感覺：我對Netflix 感到興奮，因為我喜歡亞當桑德勒，我看了這個，現在又看了下一部電影和下一部電影來了。想想看——我們正在嘗試這種情境式和連載式的想法，但現在以電影形式呈現。看看我們能為 Adam 的粉絲創造什麼樣的偉大品牌忠誠度；這不是每個人，但他們非常容易辨認。我認為這是特德在這裡首創的一種非常有創意的方法。

And on that note with the Adam Sandler deals, Ted, can you just talk to us about how you'd actually measure the success of these kind of partnerships, given that you don't have the traditional barometer of the box office to track here?

關於亞當桑德勒的交易，特德，你能和我們談談你實際上如何衡量這種合作關係的成功嗎，因為你沒有傳統的票房晴雨表可以跟踪？

I would think about it the same way we look at the successes around original series of any of our licensed series. Relative to what you're paying, do you get this kind of three legs of success with the viewing, the brand halo, and the net subscriber additions based on access to the content?

我會像看待我們任何授權系列的原創系列的成功一樣來思考這個問題。相對於你所支付的費用，你是否獲得了這種三足鼎立的成功：觀看次數、品牌光環以及基於內容訪問的淨訂閱者增加？

I think that particularly in this one is, we try to be as consumer-friendly as we can, and I think the model here is telling us is that consumers want access to those films sooner, and that we could build and model that's economically feasible to do it. But if the measure -- you should think about measuring success the same we do series -- do people get excited about Netflix because of it? I think, as Reed pointed out, I'm as excited about this as I have been since we talked about House of Cards a couple years ago, about the potential impact on the brand and the subscriber enthusiasm around it.

我認為，特別是在這方面，我們盡力做到對消費者友好，我認為這裡的模型告訴我們，消費者希望更快地獲得這些電影，並且我們可以構建和建模經濟上可行的去做吧。但如果衡量標準——你應該像衡量電視劇一樣衡量成功——人們會因此而對 Netflix 感到興奮嗎？我認為，正如里德指出的那樣，我對此感到興奮，就像我們幾年前談論《紙牌屋》以來，對品牌的潛在影響以及圍繞它的訂戶熱情一樣。

Ted, in the UK, we found some data that suggests that younger households are consuming a lot more Netflix than older households, penetration rates are higher. You mentioned in the letter that you had I think 75 series, kids series with over 2 million views. Can you talk a little about what does that mean? Is that over a week? Is that over --What duration is that and is that globally?

Ted，在英國，我們發現一些數據表明，年輕家庭比老年家庭消費更多的 Netflix 內容，普及率更高。你在信中提到，我認為你有 75 個系列，兒童系列，觀看次數超過 200 萬次。你能談談這是什麼意思嗎？那是一個多星期了嗎？結束了嗎－持續多久？是全球範圍內的嗎？

Those are active titles, titles that are currently being watched and that's a domestic number. We wanted to point that out, because relative to other outlets for kids' programming, that's a pretty big number for those -- particularly in that kind of volume. But those are domestic, and you can think about the international and domestic split roughly similar to our subscriber base.

這些是活躍的影片、目前正在觀看的影片，並且是國內數字。我們想指出這一點，因為相對於其他兒童節目管道，這個數字相當大——尤其是在這種數量上。但這些都是國內的，你可以認為國際和國內的劃分與我們的用戶群大致相似。

Within what time frame? Is it on a monthly basis? Is it cumed over time?

在什麼時間範圍內？是按月計算嗎？是不是隨著時間的推移就高潮了？

They're currently active titles, and they're cumed for active titles.

它們目前是活躍的遊戲，並且他們正在為活躍的遊戲而努力。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ted, on Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, some of the major theater chains here have responded pretty negatively early on in terms of the day-in-day IMAX release and Netflix streaming plans. What happens to the economics of your film strategy if some of those major chains prevent IMAX from exhibiting the film?

Ted，在《臥虎藏龍》中，這裡的一些主要連鎖影院很早就對 IMAX 日常上映和 Netflix 串流媒體計劃做出了相當消極的反應。如果其中一些主要連鎖店阻止 IMAX 放映電影，您的電影策略的經濟性會發生什麼變化？

Very little economically. I think that the key to it is we would like to give the consumers the choice to see a big film on a big screen. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is not a direct-to-video, low-budget sequel. It's a big film, and it would be fantastic to have the opportunity be able to see it on the IMAX screens at the same time. And IMAX has made arrangements with us for that to happen.

經濟上很少。我認為關鍵是我們想讓消費者有選擇在大螢幕上觀看大電影。 《臥虎藏龍》並不是一部直接製作影片的低成本續集。這是一部大片，如果有機會能夠同時在 IMAX 銀幕上觀看，那就太棒了。 IMAX 已與我們做出安排以實現這一目標。

I think it's, as expected, the theater chains reacted negatively publicly. But I think the real story will unfold on August 28th when the film opens when we see if it's on those screens or not.

我認為，正如預期的那樣，連鎖影院公開做出了負面反應。但我認為真正的故事將在 8 月 28 日電影上映時揭曉，屆時我們將看看它是否出現在這些銀幕上。

Reed, in the past quarter, it looks like in Canada, a local tribunal, the CRTC, was asking for some data regarding Netflix, that you guys were not willing because of privacy to share. Are you worried that governments and regulators will start asking for even more disclosure and try to enforce more traditional regulatory pressures upon your business?

Reed，上個季度，加拿大當地法院 CRTC 似乎要求提供一些有關 Netflix 的數據，但你們出於隱私原因不願意分享這些數據。您是否擔心政府和監管機構會開始要求提供更多信息，並試圖對您的企業施加更傳統的監管壓力？

It's super important that Netflix maintain a reputation with consumers for protecting privacy against a wide range of players. So you'll see us be a really staunch ally of the consumer.

Netflix 在保護隱私免受廣大玩家侵害方面保持了消費者的聲譽，這一點非常重要。所以你會看到我們是消費者真正堅定的盟友。

Will there be conflict with certain government agencies? There may over time. We're not seeking to have a fight. We're going to try to work well with everyone. And certainly, as an example, in France, I think we really turned around what could have been a difficult situation into one that was quite positive. We're getting better and better at those government-relation skills where we don't have to have a battle.

會不會與某些政府機構發生衝突？隨著時間的推移可能會有。我們並不是想打架。我們將努力與每個人合作良好。當然，舉個例子，在法國，我認為我們確實把本來可能是困難的局面變成了相當正面的局面。我們在政府關係技巧方面做得越來越好，而無需進行戰鬥。

Probably worth mentioning, Michael, in Canada, producing Netflix content, particularly in the animated space, we're one of the largest employers in Canada for animation executives. I think something on the magnitude of $140 million a year being poured into the Canadian economy producing animation for Netflix. It's pretty impressive.

也許值得一提的是，邁克爾，在加拿大製作 Netflix 內容，特別是在動畫領域，我們是加拿大最大的動畫高階主管雇主之一。我認為每年有 1.4 億美元投入加拿大經濟，為 Netflix 製作動畫。這真是令人印象深刻。

David, can you talk about how the amortization of these newer movie deals are going to be recognized on the financial statements? And then, in particular, can you go into some more detail, I know you talk about it in the letter some, but just the dynamics around free cash flow and EPS as both a function of some of the heavier content investments and then also the international expansion as well?

大衛，你能談談這些新電影交易的攤銷將如何在財務報表中確認嗎？然後，特別是，您能否詳細介紹一下，我知道您在信中談到了一些問題，但自由現金流和每股收益的動態既是一些較重的內容投資的函數，也是也進行國際擴張？

Sure. So I'll take the amortization question. In terms of how the movies will be amortized, they will be accelerated, like our large original series are. And until we have more data to challenge that, whether it should be faster or slower, we'll take that assumption that they will be accelerated.

當然。所以我將回答攤銷問題。就電影的攤銷方式而言，它們將會加速，就像我們的大型原創系列一樣。在我們有更多數據來挑戰這一點之前，無論它應該更快還是更慢，我們都會假設它們會加速。

And then, your second question was on free cash flow relative to net incomes. We put the graph in there to illustrate the separation that happened in Q3. We've been saying this for quite some time in terms of the pressures on cash being the expansion of content, including produced content as well as the international expansion, because it forces the loss lower.

然後，你的第二個問題是關於相對於淨利潤的自由現金流。我們將圖表放在那裡來說明第三季發生的分離。我們已經這麼說了相當長一段時間了，現金的壓力來自於內容的擴張，包括製作的內容以及國際擴張，因為這會降低損失。

So I would say it's still consistent when we talked about a 1.2 to 1.3 ratio of cash outlaid to content P&L expense is still consistent. And if we spend $3 billion globally on content and growing, even taking the 1.2 or the 20% ratio, that's $600 million of cash laid out for content, over and above the P&L expense.

因此，當我們談論 1.2 至 1.3 的現金支出與內容損益支出的比率時，我想說它仍然是一致的。如果我們在全球花費 30 億美元用於內容和成長，即使採用 1.2 或 20% 的比率，也需要為內容投入 6 億美元的現金，這超出了損益支出。

So we expect these trends be persistent, and I think that we -- we have $1.7 billion in cash. I think we're okay for the next few quarters. But we continually look at this. And if we continue to expand both content and international, as we expect to do, then you should continue to see some pressure on the cash, on the free cash flow.

因此，我們預計這些趨勢將持續下去，而且我認為我們擁有 17 億美元的現金。我認為接下來的幾季我們的表現還不錯。但我們不斷關注這一點。如果我們繼續擴大內容和國際化，正如我們所期望的那樣，那麼你應該會繼續看到現金和自由現金流面臨一些壓力。

Ted, can you talk a bit about off-network syndication? In the past quarter, you were able to license both Gotham and Black List a year after they aired on network television. Can you talk a bit about what's changed in the model and what's the cost of those types of purchases versus maybe library content?

Ted，您能談談網外聯合組織嗎？在上個季度，您在《哥譚》和《黑名單》在網路電視上播出一年後就獲得了許可。您能否談談模型中的變化以及這些類型的購買與圖書館內容相比的成本是多少？

Yes, and there's other variants on the model, like in January, you'll see Better Call Saul, the Breaking Bad prequel that we will be licensing in all of our other territories, and a year after in the US and Canada and then in the first run in every other territory we operate in. We're super excited about that one too.

是的，這個模式還有其他變體，例如在一月份，你會看到《絕命毒師》前傳《風騷律師》，我們將在所有其他地區獲得許可，一年後在美國和加拿大，然後在這是我們運營的所有其他地區的第一次運行。我們對此也感到非常興奮。

I look at it about, as all these models are changing pretty rapidly, there's multiple buyers in the markets. So I think at any one piece of content, the bidding can get pretty intense, but overall, the content costs are pretty consistent on all these new models. And I think operating in 50 different countries and being willing to operate in multiple windows gives us a real advantage in the market, so we're excited about that.

我認為，由於所有這些模型都在快速變化，市場上有多個買家。因此，我認為對於任何一項內容，競價可能會變得相當激烈，但總的來說，所有這些新模型的內容成本都非常一致。我認為在 50 個不同的國家/地區開展業務並願意在多個窗口中開展業務使我們在市場上擁有真正的優勢，因此我們對此感到興奮。

And Ted, there have been some comments in the press recently and I think coming from the agencies essentially, that really the foundation for the agencies in selling to its streaming service, back ends of course are typically their foundation, but selling to a streaming service with a perpetual deal, they wouldn't necessarily know where that back end would come from if there may not be a second sale. Does that create a problem for you in buying content rights across all markets, and do you see any pushback there?

特德，最近媒體上有一些評論，我認為基本上來自各機構，這確實是各機構向其串流媒體服務銷售的基礎，後端當然通常是他們的基礎，但向串流媒體服務銷售對於永久交易，如果沒有第二次銷售，他們不一定知道後端將來自哪裡。這是否會為您在所有市場購買內容版權帶來問題？您是否看到了任何阻力？

No, Doug, just like every time you press into a new market and a new window and a new paradigm, you've got to figure out how to make it work in the old world too. I think these problems were contemplated back when HBO started doing original series before they had a DVD business, before they knew if they were going to syndicate. I think those are all navigatable and have been navigated in the past, and we're navigating them as well.

不，道格，就像每次你進入一個新市場、一個新視窗和一個新範式時，你都必須弄清楚如何讓它在舊世界中發揮作用。我認為，當 HBO 開始製作原創劇集時，他們還沒有開展 DVD 業務，在他們不知道是否要進行聯合發行之前，就已經考慮過這些問題了。我認為這些都是可以導航的，並且過去已經被導航過，我們也在導航它們。

Reed, a question on internet net neutrality. One of the things we struggle with, looking at broadband investment is if the interconnect fee is capped or protected or kept zero, how do investors in broadband plant recoup their investment if they can't charge interconnections? How does the Comcast investor or the product investor think about returns on their investment if they can't charge for interconnection?

里德，一個關於網路中立性的問題。在寬頻投資方面，我們面臨的難題之一是，如果互連費用受到限制、保護或保持為零，那麼如果寬頻工廠的投資者無法收取互連費用，他們如何收回投資？如果康卡斯特投資者或產品投資者不能收取互連費用，他們如何看待他們的投資回報？

The simple version is they collect revenue on the Internet from their customers and that pays for the network, and we don't ask them to pay for our content, and we don't think they should ask us to pay for their network. So that's the basis of the no-fee interconnect.

簡單的說法是，他們在網路上從客戶那裡收取收入並為網路付費，我們不要求他們為我們的內容付費，我們認為他們不應該要求我們為他們的網路付費。這就是免費互連的基礎。

David, I think US marketing spend was down about 5% year over year and more than 200 basis points as a percentage of revenue. Why spend fewer dollars in 3Q if the growth was slowing down and you were coming in below forecast? And could this have hindered sub growth, and how should we think about that marketing dollar trend going forward?

David，我認為美國的行銷支出比去年同期下降了約 5%，佔收入的百分比下降了 200 多個基點。如果成長放緩且您的業績低於預期，為什麼要在第三季減少支出？這是否會阻礙次級成長？我們該如何看待未來的行銷美元趨勢？

I think back six, eight years ago, there was a much more direct connection between our marketing spend and our net additions, in terms of bidding on bounties for people to sign up via click-through on an online ad. I don't think that's true anymore. So I don't think that whether our marketing spend is up 10% or down 10%, there's an immediate direct connection felt on our net addition growth.

我回想起六八年前，我們的行銷支出和淨增加之間存在著更直接的聯繫，即透過競標獎金讓人們透過點擊線上廣告進行註冊。我認為這不再是真的了。因此，我認為無論我們的行銷支出成長 10% 或下降 10%，都不會對我們的淨增量成長產生直接的直接影響。

So when we look at our marketing spend, we look at a number of factors. We look at what content, what opportunities we have to spend against that in the quarter. We look at what our margin targets are. There's number of things that go into that. But I wouldn't say that that was a large influence on the year-on-year decline in growth that we saw in the US.

因此，當我們考慮行銷支出時，我們會考慮許多因素。我們會研究本季我們必須花費哪些內容、哪些機會。讓我們看看我們的利潤目標是多少。這牽涉到很多事情。但我不會說這對我們在美國看到的年成長率下降有很大影響。

Reed, over the past weekend, our home, which uses FiOS, had trouble getting onto Netflix, which is a good problem to have. I wonder what does your research tell you about satisfaction levels when there's a buffering or connectivity issue, and how does that get solved?

里德，上週末，我們家使用 FiOS，無法存取 Netflix，這是一個很好的問題。我想知道當存在緩衝或連接問題時，您的研究告訴您有關滿意度的什麼信息，以及如何解決這個問題？

I'm surprised that you got an issue. Verizon's done a lot of investment over the past three months to get the average speeds up. And what's remarkable is how quickly they've been able to expand the interconnect, so that the average speeds for Verizon are now some of the highest in the United States, still not as high as many of the speeds in Europe, but some of the highest in the US.

我很驚訝你有問題。 Verizon 在過去三個月中進行了大量投資，以提高平均速度。值得注意的是，他們能夠以多快的速度擴展互連，因此 Verizon 的平均速度現在是美國最高的，但仍然不如歐洲的許多速度，但在一些美國最高。

So it should be very rare, and I'll have to follow up with you, and we can take a look at the logs for your home, if you're comfortable with that. We'll see what was going on. Maybe one of the kids was doing some illegal downloading.

因此，這種情況應該非常罕見，我將不得不與您聯繫，如果您對此感到滿意，我們可以查看您家的日誌。我們會看看發生了什麼事。也許其中一個孩子正在進行非法下載。

It's my problem. Reed, just in thinking about the US versus international markets, can you compare and contrast some of the challenges with peering, with interconnection and net neutrality. Especially in markets internationally where we may be seeing some consolidation, do you see any elevated challenges in some of those new markets you might wish to go into in 2015 and beyond?

這是我的問題。里德，在思考美國市場與國際市場時，您能否比較和對比對等互連、互連和網路中立性所面臨的一些挑戰。特別是在國際市場上，我們可能會看到一些整合，您是否認為您希望在 2015 年及以後進入的一些新市場面臨更大的挑戰？

Outside the US, there's much more of a common regiment of settlement-free interconnect. The whole charging for interconnect is really an artifact of size. So Comcast is the biggest, so they get to charge the most and then it goes down from there. It's straight power dynamics, as opposed to costs or anything like that. So it's a much friendlier climate outside the US for settlement-free interconnect.

在美國以外，還有更多的無結算互連的共同群體。整個互連充電其實是尺寸的產物。所以康卡斯特是最大的，所以他們收取的費用最高，然後從那裡開始下降。這是直接的權力動態，而不是成本或類似的東西。因此，美國以外的地區對於免結算互連來說是一個更友善的氛圍。

David, can you update us on foreign exchange? I know it's still early days and you guys are growing internationally, but is your cost base denominated for the most part in US dollars, and is the revenue base dominated internationally? Has currency affected you guys this year?

大衛，你能為我們介紹一下外匯的最新情況嗎？我知道現在還處於早期階段，你們正在國際化發展，但你們的成本基礎是否大部分以美元計價，收入基礎是否在國際上占主導地位？今年貨幣對你們有影響嗎？

It's a mix, but it's actually very quite small, it's under $1 million of P&L effect. On valuing the balance sheet items, there's a little bit more of an effect especially against the British pound. I would say there's a mixture across it. So there's some natural hedging that, but right now it's actually quite small in terms of an overall influence on our EPS and on our P&L.

這是一個混合體，但實際上非常小，損益效應不到 100 萬美元。在評估資產負債表項目時，影響更大一些，尤其是對英鎊。我想說的是它是一種混合體。因此，存在一些自然的對沖，但目前它對我們的每股盈餘和損益的整體影響實際上很小。

Reed, or perhaps David, can you review the economics just around how the through the middle set-top box relationships work? And perhaps talk a little bit about how some of these newer dynamics or relationships in Western Europe may be relative to earlier deals and some of the smaller stuff, for example, that you've had in the US?

里德，或者大衛，您能回顧一下中間機上盒關係如何運作的經濟學嗎？也許可以談談西歐的一些較新的動態或關係與之前的交易和一些較小的交易（例如，您在美國的交易）有何關係？

I think we'll both tell you the same thing, that we can't tell you much about those deals. That we're comfortable with the economics. We've done lots of deals in the US, first with X-Box, then with PlayStation, Apple TV, et cetera. So we've been doing these kinds of deals for a long time.

我想我們都會告訴你同樣的事情，我們不能告訴你太多關於這些交易的資訊。我們對經濟感到滿意。我們在美國做了很多交易，首先是 X-Box，然後是 PlayStation、Apple TV 等等。因此，我們長期以來一直在進行此類交易。

Reed, as HBO starts building out in the US, you've had experience in the Nordic region where they competed with you. Could you share a bit what you've learned within the Nordics, and what does it mean for overall television consumption in that market?

里德，隨著 HBO 開始在美國發展，你在北歐地區有與你競爭的經驗。您能否分享一下您在北歐地區了解到的情況，以及這對該市場的整體電視消費意味著什麼？

Each market's unique, so I think they've had some teething problems initially two years ago that they probably would not have in the US. I think they've been licensing broadly. They just licensed a number of STARZ titles, so they're willing to license beyond their core platform.

每個市場都是獨一無二的，所以我認為他們在兩年前就遇到了一些初期問題，而在美國可能不會遇到這些問題。我認為他們已經廣泛許可。他們剛剛授權了一些 STARZ 遊戲，因此他們願意授權超出其核心平台的內容。

They've done pretty well and we've done very well. And what we've talked to when we've talked to subscribers there is they're really -- if they're into content, they subscribe to both services. I really think we're going to see this really fun couple years where the two of us compete for the best content, the most Emmys, the subscriber growth and many, many people will subscribe to both services. We're looking forward to that.

他們做得很好，我們也做得很好。當我們與訂閱者交談時，我們談到的是，如果他們喜歡內容，他們就會訂閱這兩種服務。我真的認為我們將會看到這非常有趣的幾年，我們兩人將爭奪最好的內容、最多的艾美獎、訂閱者的增長以及很多很多人會訂閱這兩種服務。我們對此很期待。

We're just excited that HBO's really in the game with the Internet. They're the leader in their field. They're well ahead of their peer group. They're ahead of the broadcast networks in this dimension, so it's exciting to see.

我們很高興 HBO 真正參與到互聯網的遊戲中。他們是各自領域的領導者。他們遠遠領先於同齡人。他們在這方面領先於廣播網絡，因此令人興奮。

David, you updated the US margin outlook to the 200 basis points of expansion per year and getting up to 40% over five years, of course after you hit 30% early next year. How do you get comfortable that you can still invest what you need to in content in the US and also do that 40% longer-term margin?

David，您將美國利潤率展望更新為每年擴張 200 個基點，並在五年內達到 40%，當然在明年初達到 30% 之後。您如何感到放心，您仍然可以在美國的內容上進行所需的投資，並獲得 40% 的長期利潤？

I think Ted would tell you that he'd take everything that we can give him. But I think that even with the shift to the 200, it still allows for some pretty significant expansions of both licensed and produced content. So we feel pretty comfortable about the room for continued growth of the quality of the content. And I think it provides a little bit of discipline in terms of making sure that we spend that marginal dollar well. So I'd say that we're pretty comfortable on both senses.

我想特德會告訴你，他會接受我們能給他的一切。但我認為，即使轉向 200，它仍然允許對許可內容和製作內容進行一些相當大的擴展。因此，我們對內容品質持續成長的空間感到非常滿意。我認為它提供了一點紀律，確保我們用好邊際資金。所以我想說我們在這兩種感官上都非常舒服。

Any chance you want to share more on what sub number that 40% implies five years down the line?

您是否想更多地分享 40% 意味著五年後的子數字？

It implies continued growth.

它意味著持續成長。

Michael and Doug, we should do one more question each and then we should wrap it up.

麥可和道格，我們應該每人再做一個問題，然後我們就應該結束它。

Okay. Thanks, Reed. I have one for Ted. I believe one of your content deals early on had a put option for a Company to actually put shows to you. I wondered what do you think will happen to those types -- to that agreement longer term, and should we expect some more -- a big bundle of shows put to you in the next one or two years?

好的。謝謝，里德。我有一份給特德的。我相信您早期的一項內容交易有一個看跌期權，讓一家公司可以實際向您展示節目。我想知道你認為這些類型會發生什麼 - 長期協議，我們是否應該期待更多 - 在未來一兩年內向你展示的大量節目？

All those deals, especially the early deals are very organic. They've all been in various stages of renegotiation and extension and redefining. So there's nothing looming that's troubling in that way. Remember, they were mostly designed at the beginning to gain access to the content, not to try to avoid getting the content. There's nothing out there that we're nervous about or concerned about in our existing deals about a put that could be looming out there.

所有這些交易，尤其是早期的交易都是非常有機的。它們都處於重新談判、擴展和重新定義的不同階段。因此，沒有什麼事情會以這種方式令人不安。請記住，它們一開始的設計主要是為了取得內容，而不是試圖避免取得內容。在我們現有的交易中，對於可能即將出現的看跌期權，我們沒有什麼感到緊張或擔心的。

Reed, a question that we frequently get still is on pricing. We obviously saw the small, what we thought was a small pricing change in 2Q, but perhaps at a bigger impact in the third quarter. Does that mean really as we look out over the next couple years that you may not do anything in terms of pricing, or do you still think that you'd look to experiment and potentially do things around tiering?

里德，我們經常遇到的一個問題是定價。我們顯然看到了第二季的小價格變化，我們認為這是一個小的價格變化，但可能在第三季產生更大的影響。這是否真的意味著，當我們展望未來幾年時，您可能不會在定價方面做任何事情，或者您仍然認為您會嘗試並可能圍繞分層做一些事情？

We'll definitely be listening closely to our members, and then as we add more and more great original content, and I think we're more valuable to consumers. So we're seeing an adjustment period that's this quarter. We're learning how to do that.

我們肯定會仔細聆聽會員的意見，然後隨著我們添加越來越多精彩的原創內容，我認為我們對消費者更有價值。所以我們看到本季是一個調整期。我們正在學習如何做到這一點。

But over the long time, consumer pay for value, and it's up to us to front load that value, and, boy, the slate of content that Ted has for next year, it's really exciting and kicks off with Marco Polo in early December. With that, let me thank everybody for joining us on this call and look forward to catching up with all of you over the quarter. And special thanks to Doug for his year of service. So we'll continue.

但從長遠來看，消費者是為價值付費的，而我們有責任提前加載該價值，天哪，Ted 明年的內容清單真的很令人興奮，並且將於 12 月初從《馬可波羅》開始。在此，我要感謝大家參加這次電話會議，並期待在本季與大家見面。特別感謝道格一年來的服務。所以我們會繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。