NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the NextDecade Corporation first quarter 2026 investor call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎收聽 NextDecade Corporation 2026 年第一季投資人電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示)提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。

  • And now I would like to turn the call over to Megan Light, NextDecade's Vice President of Investor Relations.

    現在我想把電話會議交給 NextDecade 投資人關係副總裁 Megan Light。

  • Megan Light - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Megan Light - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NextDecade's first quarter 2026 Investor update call and webcast. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available on our website at www.next-decade.com.

    謝謝,各位早安。歡迎參加 NextDecade 2026 年第一季投資人最新進展電話會議與網路直播。今日電話會議的簡報投影片與網路直播連結可於我們網站 www.next-decade.com 取得。

  • Today, I am joined by Matt Schatzman, NextDecade's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Mott, NextDecade's Interim Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我一同出席的有 NextDecade 董事長兼執行長 Matt Schatzman,以及 NextDecade 代理財務長 Mike Mott。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that discussion on this call, including answers to your questions, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of US federal securities laws.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,本次電話會議中的討論(包含對各位提問的回答)包含依據美國聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

  • These statements have been based on assumptions and analysis made by next decade in light of current expectations, perceptions of historical trends, current conditions and projections about future events and trends.

    這些陳述係 NextDecade 依據目前的預期、對歷史趨勢的認知、當前狀況,以及對未來事件與趨勢的預測,在此基礎上所作的假設與分析。

  • Although NextDecade believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that the expectations will be correct. NextDecade's actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in

    雖然 NextDecade 認為這些前瞻性陳述所反映的預期屬合理,但無法保證該等預期一定正確。由於多項因素,NextDecade 的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預期者存在重大差異,包括以下所討論的因素,亦包括載於

  • NextDecade's periodic reports that are filed with and available from the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, discussion on this call includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow.

    NextDecade 定期向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交並可取得之報告中的因素。此外,本次電話會議亦提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,例如調整後 EBITDA 與可分配現金流。

  • A definition of an additional information regarding these measures can be found in the appendix to our presentation.

    關於這些衡量指標的定義及其他資訊,請參閱我們簡報附錄。

  • And now I will turn the call over to Matt Schatzman, executes Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

    現在我將把電話會議交給 Matt Schatzman,執行董事長兼執行長。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Megan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. First quarter was productive across the NextDecade organization.

    謝謝你,Megan,各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們。第一季 NextDecade 全體組織在多方面都有所斬獲。

  • We're making solid progress on the key 2026 priorities that we introduced on our fourth quarter call. First, one of our highest priorities continues to be progressing construction at the Rio Grande LNG facility, safely, on budget and ahead of schedule.

    我們在第四季電話會議中提出的 2026 年關鍵優先事項上,正取得穩健進展。首先,我們最高優先事項之一仍是推進 Rio Grande LNG 設施的建設,確保安全、符合預算並超前進度。

  • Safety is engraved in our culture and our work. And in the first quarter, we achieved a low total recordable incident rate or TRIR of less than 0.1.

    安全已深植於我們的文化與工作之中。第一季我們達成了低於 0.1 的總可記錄事故率(TRIR)。

  • I'm proud of both our team and the Bechtel team for continuing to progress construction at a rapid pace while maintaining high safety standards. We also continue to be within budget across all five trains under construction. Train 1 early electric commissioning is underway.

    我為我們的團隊以及 Bechtel 團隊感到自豪,能在維持高安全標準的同時,持續以快速節奏推進施工。我們也持續在所有五座正在建造的液化列車(trains)上維持在預算範圍內。1 號列車的早期電氣試運轉(early electric commissioning)已在進行中。

  • Phase 1 continues to track ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates for the EPC contracts, and we're making excellent early progress on trains four and five at the site.

    第一期(Phase 1)持續超前 EPC 合約所保證的實質完工日期(substantial completion dates),而我們在現場的 4 號與 5 號列車也取得了極佳的早期進展。

  • Based on our current progress, Phase 1 is tracking ahead of the schedule reflected in our early volume guidance, providing a buffer to achieve the numbers we have provided.

    依據我們目前的進度,第一期的進展超前於我們早期產量指引所反映的時程,為達成我們已提供的數字提供了緩衝。

  • Our second key priority for 2026 is continuing to prepare our organization for commissioning, first LNG and the transition to operations.

    我們 2026 年第二項關鍵優先事項,是持續為試車、首批 LNG(first LNG)以及轉入營運做準備。

  • We've been advancing hiring, system implementations and process development ahead of first LNG. We've been rapidly hiring and expanding our team, and we currently have over 400 employees with the majority based in Brownsville.

    我們在首批 LNG 之前,已提前推進招募、人員配置、系統導入與流程建置。我們正快速招募並擴編團隊,目前員工已超過 400 人,其中多數位於布朗斯維爾(Brownsville)。

  • As part of our enterprise readiness efforts, we've made significant progress building the digital and operational foundation required for first LNG.

    作為企業整備(enterprise readiness)工作的一部分,我們在建立首批 LNG 所需的數位與營運基礎方面已取得重大進展。

  • Core enterprise platforms are starting to go live, and we've created a robust in-house integration capability that allows systems to exchange data and supports end-to-end business processes.

    核心企業平台正開始上線,我們也建立了強健的內部整合能力,使各系統能交換資料並支援端到端的業務流程。

  • This work positions us to scale efficiently, reduce operational risk and enter operations with strong governance, visibility and control across the enterprise.

    這些工作使我們能有效率地擴張、降低營運風險,並在具備強健治理、可視性與企業全域控管的情況下進入營運階段。

  • We're laser-focused on ensuring that the organization is prepared for introducing first gas into the facility in the second half of this year and producing the first LNG from train one in the first half of next year.

    我們高度聚焦,確保組織已準備好在今年下半年將首批天然氣(first gas)導入設施,並於明年上半年由 1 號列車產出首批 LNG。

  • Our third key priority is to manage near-term exposure to LNG market margins through the sale of projected early LNG cargoes. As we mentioned on the fourth quarter call, early this year, we began marketing early cargoes that we expect to produce in Phase I prior to the commencement of our long-term SPAs for Train 3.

    我們第三項關鍵優先事項,是透過出售預計的早期 LNG 貨物,管理短期對 LNG 市場利差的曝險。如同我們在第四季電話會議所提到的,今年年初我們開始行銷第一期(Phase I)預計在 3 號列車長期 SPA 開始之前所生產的早期貨物。

  • In February, we sold over 175 TBtu on a free on board or FOB basis with fixed liquefaction fees that are expected to achieve margins calculated as the FOB sales price less our expected cost of natural gas feedstock and fuel of over $3 per MBtu.

    2 月,我們以船上交貨(FOB)方式售出超過 175 TBtu,並採固定液化費(fixed liquefaction fees);預期可達成的利差(以 FOB 銷售價格扣除我們預估的天然氣原料與燃料成本計算)超過每 MBtu 3 美元。

  • These sales reduced the Phase I early LNG production exposed to LNG market price fluctuations by 33%. Market margins have increased since the Aderant conflict began.

    這些銷售使第一期早期 LNG 產量中暴露於 LNG 市場價格波動的部分降低了 33%。自 Aderant 衝突開始以來,市場利差已上升。

  • And as we increase our visibility into expected early LNG production gain additional assurance on the timing from Bechtel later this year and early next year, we expect to sell additional early volumes to further reduce our market exposure during our ramp-up period. Our final key priority for this year is advancing the development and permitting of Train six through eight.

    隨著我們對預期早期 LNG 產量的能見度提升,並在今年稍晚及明年年初從 Bechtel 取得更多時程方面的確信,我們預期將出售更多早期產量,以在爬坡期間進一步降低市場曝險。我們今年最後一項關鍵優先事項,是推進 6 至 8 號列車的開發與許可申請。

  • Bechtel is in the process of performing a front-end engineering and design or FEED study for the Train 6 and third birth, and we expect to follow the formal FERC application for Train 6 before the end of this quarter.

    Bechtel 正在為 6 號列車與第三個泊位(third birth)進行前端工程設計(FEED)研究,我們預期在本季結束前正式向 FERC 提交 6 號列車的申請。

  • Additionally, we've begun early commercialization efforts for Train 6, and we're seeing strong demand for potential customers for long-term volumes. I'd like to remind everyone that additional LNG supplies were needed in the early 2030s before the IRAM conflict began and demand for long-term SPAs is even stronger today.

    此外,我們已開始針對 6 號列車的早期商業化工作,並看到潛在客戶對長期供應量有強勁需求。我想提醒各位,即使在 IRAM 衝突開始之前,2030 年代初期就已需要額外 LNG 供給,而如今對長期 SPA 的需求更為強勁。

  • Construction at the Rio Grain LNG facility continues to progress safely, on budget and ahead of schedule. As of March 2026, a Trains 1 and 2 are 67.8% complete. Train 3 is 44.2% complete and trains 4 and 5 are 10.6% and 6.8% complete, respectively.

    Rio Grande LNG 設施的施工持續在安全、符合預算且超前進度的情況下推進。截至 2026 年 3 月,1 號與 2 號列車完工率為 67.8%。3 號列車完工率為 44.2%,4 號與 5 號列車分別為 10.6% 與 6.8%。

  • During the overall -- within these overall completion numbers, Trains 1 and 2 are functionally complete on the engineering and procurement front with the engineering of trains 1 and 2, just over 98% complete and the procurement just over 94% complete.

    在這些整體完工數字之中,1 號與 2 號列車在工程與採購方面已達功能性完成(functionally complete):1 號與 2 號列車的工程完成度略高於 98%,採購完成度略高於 94%。

  • Train 3 is not far behind Trains 1 and 2 with engineering over 90% complete to procurement over 80% complete. Since our last update, Bechtel has continued to make strong progress in construction of Phase 1 with work on Train 1 focused on piping, equipment installation, cable pooling, testing and system completions.

    3 號列車在進度上也緊追 1 號與 2 號列車,工程完成度超過 90%,採購完成度超過 80%。自上次更新以來,Bechtel 持續在第一期施工方面取得強勁進展;1 號列車的工作重點包括管線、設備安裝、電纜敷設、測試與系統完工。

  • The main cryogen, a key exchanger for Train 1 has also been successfully installed. Trains 2 and 3 made Noble progress on civil works, piping, structural steel and equipment installation and placement of the Train 2 compressor packages is underway.

    1 號列車的主要低溫設備(main cryogen)—一項關鍵換熱器—也已成功安裝。2 號與 3 號列車在土建、管線、結構鋼與設備安裝方面取得穩健進展,2 號列車壓縮機套件(compressor packages)的就位作業正在進行中。

  • For tanks 1 and 2 welding of the inter tanks is progressing and concrete roof placement has been completed for both tanks.

    就 1 號與 2 號儲槽而言,內槽(inner tanks)的焊接作業正在推進,兩座儲槽的混凝土屋頂澆置已完成。

  • Early civil works are progressing for Train 4 site preparation activities are underway for Train 5 and production piling has commenced for Tank 3. Across the site, construction of permanent buildings is advancing, construction activities of the gas inland area are ongoing, dredging activities for the birth and the turning basin are substantially complete and channel deepening is nearing completion.

    4 號列車的早期土建工程正在推進;5 號列車的場地準備活動正在進行;3 號儲槽已開始生產打樁(production piling)。在全場範圍內,永久性建築的施工正在推進;氣體內陸區(gas inland area)的施工活動持續進行;泊位與迴轉池(turning basin)的疏浚作業已大致完成;航道加深工程也接近完工。

  • The Bay Runner pipeline has been under construction since last fall and is expected to reach in service in the third quarter of this year. Bay runner is being constructed by Whistler LLC, a joint venture between WhiteWater Midstream, Enbridge and MPLX and will be our primary pipeline capacity into the terminal for trains 1 through 3.

    Bay Runner 管線自去年秋季起施工,預計將於今年第三季投入營運(in service)。Bay Runner 由 Whistler LLC 建造,該公司為 WhiteWater Midstream、Enbridge 與 MPLX 的合資企業;該管線將成為我們通往終端、供應 1 至 3 號列車的主要管線容量來源。

  • Early electrical commissioning of train line continues, and we continue to expect first gas into the facility in the second half of this year and first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027.

    列車線路的早期電氣試運轉持續進行,我們仍預期今年下半年將有第一批天然氣進入設施,並預期1號列車將於2027年上半年首次生產LNG。

  • In early April, FERC approved our request to ship to a 24/7 construction schedule at the site, a transition that has been contemplated in the EPC contract and will not increase our EPC or total project cost. 24/7 formats to facilitate Bechtel making continued progress ahead of schedule.

    4月初,FERC核准我們將工地施工改為24/7排程的申請;此一轉換已在EPC合約中有所規劃,且不會增加我們的EPC或專案總成本。24/7的作業模式有助於Bechtel持續在進度上超前推進。

  • We're currently tracking ahead of the schedule reflected in our early volumes and cash flow guidance, giving us some buffer for the unexpected events during commissioning and start-up of the trains while still achieving the production guidance we have provided.

    我們目前的進度超前於先前在早期出貨量與現金流指引中所反映的時程,這讓我們在列車試運轉與啟動期間面對突發事件時仍有一定緩衝,同時仍可達成我們已提供的產量指引。

  • We're supporting our goal of increasing our capacity at the Rio Grande LNG facility up to 60 million tonnes per annum by advancing the development and permitting of Train 6 through 8.

    為支持我們將Rio Grande LNG設施產能提升至每年6,000萬噸的目標,我們正推進6至8號列車的開發與許可作業。

  • As we mentioned on our highlights slide, -- the FEED study for Train 6 is underway with Bechtel.

    如同我們在重點摘要投影片中提到的,— 6號列車的FEED研究正與Bechtel進行中。

  • Train 6 will have the same design as Trains 1 through 5, and the FEED study will support our regulatory filings with FERC and give us a general idea of where we expect to land on cost for Train 6. We currently expect Train 6 to look a lot like Train 5 from a project cost perspective, adjusted for inflation.

    6號列車將採用與1至5號列車相同的設計,而FEED研究將支援我們向FERC提交的監管申報,並讓我們對6號列車的成本落點有一個大致概念。我們目前預期,從專案成本角度來看,6號列車將與5號列車非常相似,並依通膨進行調整。

  • We are also prepared to file a formal application with FERC for Train 6 and a third birth before the end of the second quarter of this year.

    我們也已準備在今年第二季結束前,向FERC就6號列車及第三個泊位提出正式申請。

  • The current administration's emphasis on US energy dominance is a national security issue, including last week's determination that expanding LNG capacity is necessary under the Defense Production Act is expected to be helpful for the development of US LNG, and we expect permitting new capacity to be smoother and faster under the current administration in the prior ones.

    現任政府強調美國能源主導地位,將其視為國家安全議題;其中包括上週依《國防生產法》認定擴增LNG產能屬必要之舉,預期將有助於美國LNG的發展。我們也預期,在現任政府之下,新產能的許可流程將較以往政府更順暢、更快速。

  • Additionally, the DC Circuit Court's reversal in our case in March 2025 and the Supreme Court 7 County case later last year have set precedents that will go a long way in limiting the ability of certain groups tie-up permits in court over matters that have been appropriately analysed by FERC in its environmental reviews.

    此外,DC巡迴上訴法院於2025年3月在我們案件中的改判,以及去年稍晚最高法院的「7 County」案件,已建立先例,將在很大程度上限制某些團體就FERC在環境審查中已適當分析之事項,於法院中拖延許可的能力。

  • The permitting and regulatory framework for LNG infrastructure during the current administration appears to be taking less time, which is very encouraging.

    在現任政府期間,LNG基礎設施的許可與監管框架似乎所需時間更短,這非常令人鼓舞。

  • It gives us confidence that our future trains will receive approval faster than our first 5 trains. We believe it is possible that we could receive our FERC permit for Train 6 as early as mid-2027, which could set us up for an FID in the second half of 2017, if we can also sufficiently commercialize and finance Train 6 during that time frame.

    這讓我們有信心,未來列車的核准速度將快於我們前5座列車。我們認為,6號列車的FERC許可最早可能在2027年年中取得,若我們也能在同一期間充分完成6號列車的商業化與融資,則可望在2017年下半年做出FID。

  • We expect that FID in the second half of 2027 would result in Train 6 coming online as early as 2032. As I mentioned earlier, we began commercializing efforts for Train 6 and we're seeing very strong demand from potential SPA counterparties.

    我們預期,若在2027年下半年做出FID,6號列車最早可於2032年投產。如我先前提到的,我們已開始推動6號列車的商業化工作,並看到來自潛在SPA交易對手的需求非常強勁。

  • We believe that one of the main outcomes of the Iran conflict will be increased attractiveness of long-term US LNG volumes, and we'll discuss that more in a few minutes.

    我們認為,伊朗衝突的主要結果之一,將是長期美國LNG供應量的吸引力提升;我們將在幾分鐘後進一步討論。

  • The potential demand we are currently seeing for Train 6 provides us with a sales pipeline that is larger than the capacity of Train 6 and places us in a strong position for the subsequent commercialization of Train 7 and 8.

    我們目前看到的6號列車潛在需求,為我們提供了一條大於6號列車產能的銷售管線,並使我們在後續7號與8號列車的商業化方面處於有利位置。

  • We're advancing development of Train 7 and 8 with a focus on determining the supporting infrastructure they will require and finalizing their location on the site.

    我們正推進7號與8號列車的開發,重點在於確認其所需的配套基礎設施,並完成其在場址上的位置定案。

  • Train 7 and 8 will need a flood control mechanisms such as the lever wall as they'll be outside the main levy around the site, and we're also evaluating potential tank requirements.

    7號與8號列車將需要防洪機制,例如堤牆,因為它們將位於場址周邊主堤防之外;我們也正在評估可能的儲槽需求。

  • We continue to have the goals of permitting these trains during the current administration and commercializing them while they are in the permitting process. We currently have full ownership of Train 6 through 8, and we believe these trends could contribute significantly to future expect distributable cash flow across a wide range of financing scenarios.

    我們仍以在現任政府期間完成這些列車的許可為目標,並在許可流程進行期間同步推動商業化。我們目前對6至8號列車擁有100%所有權,並認為在各種融資情境下,這些列車可望對未來預期可分配現金流做出顯著貢獻。

  • This year, as we advance permitting and commercialization of Train 6, we're working on potential financing options with the goal of maximizing distributable cash flow on a per share basis.

    今年,隨著我們推進6號列車的許可與商業化,我們正研究潛在融資選項,目標是在每股基礎上最大化可分配現金流。

  • Since our last call, global LNG market dynamics have shifted significantly as a result of the Iran conflict. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz during March and April tolled approximately 40 million tons of LNG supply out of the market with capacity at Rospan and Doss Island shut in.

    自上次電話會議以來,受伊朗衝突影響,全球LNG市場動態已顯著改變。3月與4月期間霍爾木茲海峽的關閉,使約4,000萬噸LNG供應退出市場,Rospan與Doss Island的產能亦被迫停產。

  • Each month of continued shut-in will result in a loss of an additional approximately 7 million tons, and we expect the production ramp-up that Rosatom will take weeks, if not months.

    每多持續停產一個月,將額外損失約700萬噸;我們預期Rosatom的產量爬升將需要數週,甚至數月。

  • Based on public announcements, the two damaged trains at Ross Lafon totalling almost 13 million tons per annum of capacity are estimated to require between three and five years to repair.

    根據公開公告,Ross Lafon受損的兩座列車合計接近每年1,300萬噸產能,估計需要3至5年才能修復。

  • Also, it's estimated that expansion capacity in cutter could be delayed by up to a year due to recent events. In total, a significant amount of LNG supply has been pulled out of the market between now and 2030, which we expect will tighten global balances.

    此外,據估計,cutter的擴建產能可能因近期事件而延後最多一年。總體而言,從現在到2030年之間,有相當可觀的LNG供應量已被拉出市場,我們預期這將使全球供需更為吃緊。

  • There's a lot we don't know today, including the full extent of the damage of, exact timing for production to return to the market and the ultimate impact of short-term demand destruction in price-sensitive markets, particularly in Southeast Asia.

    目前仍有許多未知數,包括損害的完整程度、產量回到市場的確切時間點,以及短期需求破壞對價格敏感市場(特別是東南亞)的最終影響。

  • For the conflict again, we expect that the appending supply wave of LNG to spur extra normal gas demand growth and additional gas infrastructure investments in developing markets over the next few years.

    就此次衝突而言,我們預期即將到來的LNG供應浪潮將帶動額外的常態天然氣需求成長,並在未來幾年促使開發中市場增加天然氣基礎設施投資。

  • Clearly, with less supply in the market currently, this will slow down. Longer term, we do not see a slowdown in demand for natural gas and in particular, LNG.

    顯然,當前市場供給較少,這將使其放緩。從長期來看,我們不認為天然氣、尤其是LNG的需求會放緩。

  • One very effective way for buyers around the world to acquire LNG at attractive prices is through long-term supply is through long-term supply and US LNG SPAs indexed to Henry Hub are particularly attractive due to the diversified prolific natural gas resource base in the US which effectively shelters buyers from the spikes in the price of LNG and natural gas in other parts of the world.

    全球買方以具吸引力價格取得LNG的一個非常有效方式,是透過長期供應;而以Henry Hub指數計價的美國LNG SPA尤其具吸引力,因為美國多元且高產的天然氣資源基礎,能有效使買方免於世界其他地區LNG與天然氣價格飆升的衝擊。

  • In pricing has decreased since the Iran conflict began and customers with long-term contracts out of the US that are indexed to Henry Hub are currently able to deliver into Europe and Asia levels below $8 per MMBtu. Long-term LNG supplies out of the US had been a buffer against market price shocks, not only during the current conflict but also during the prior market spikes associated with the Russia, Ukraine War and weather-related seasonal demand spikes.

    自伊朗衝突開始以來,定價已下降;持有以Henry Hub指數計價之美國長期合約的客戶,目前能以低於每MMBtu 8美元的水準交付至歐洲與亞洲。美國長期LNG供應一直是市場價格衝擊的緩衝,不僅在本次衝突期間如此,在先前與俄烏戰爭相關的市場飆升,以及與天候相關的季節性需求飆升期間亦然。

  • Long-term US LNG supplies have also been attractively priced relative to short-term supplies in time market conditions like we have seen in the past two to three years.

    在我們過去兩到三年所見的市場狀況下,美國長期LNG供應相較於短期供應也具有更具吸引力的定價。

  • Since 2021, an example, US long-term SPA calculated at 115% of Henry Hub plus a fixed fee of $2.50 and shipping costs of approximately $2 would have delivered into Asia at an average of $8.83 per. The JKM spot price over the same period was over $17.50, around double the long-term price.

    以2021年以來為例,若一份美國長期SPA以Henry Hub的115%加上2.50美元的固定費用,並加計約2美元的運輸成本計算,交付至亞洲的平均價格將為每MMBtu 8.83美元。同期間JKM現貨價格超過17.50美元,約為長期價格的兩倍。

  • Excluding the market spikes related to Rushe Ukraine in 2022, and 2023 to present, the example US long-term SPA price averaged approximately $5 per MMBtu lower than the short-term LNG price.

    若排除2022年與俄烏相關的市場飆升,並以2023年至今觀察,上述美國長期SPA價格平均約比短期LNG價格低每MMBtu 5美元。

  • Long-term Henry Hub-linked SPAs have also compared favourably to long-term LNG contracts linked to oil. Since 2021, long-term LNG contracts linked to Brent would have be it slows below 11%, inclusive of any fixed adder to beat the pricing of the most recent wave of long-term in rehab linked LNG contracts out of the US Historically, these print linked LNG contracts have had slips between 11% and 15% plus a fixed.

    與油價連結的長期LNG合約相比,與Henry Hub連結的長期SPA同樣表現有利。自2021年以來,與Brent連結的長期LNG合約若要在定價上勝過最近一波美國、與Henry Hub連結的長期LNG合約,其斜率需低於11%(並包含任何固定加成)。歷史上,這些與油價連結的LNG合約斜率多介於11%至15%,另加固定費用。

  • Before the combo began, we received strong indications of demand for long-term supplies out of Train 6. And demand for long-term contracts is even higher today.

    在組合開始之前,我們就已收到對第 6 列車長期供應的強勁需求訊號。而如今,對長期合約的需求更高。

  • With a prolific and diversified natural gas resource in the US, the favourable geopolitical environment, buyers can have confidence in US supplies from reliability, energy security and economic standpoint.

    美國擁有豐富且多元化的天然氣資源,加上有利的地緣政治環境,買方可從供應可靠性、能源安全與經濟性角度,對美國供應充滿信心。

  • We expect buyers to increasingly value long-term contracts out of the US, which will spur additional capacity growth in the market. And with Train 6 through 8 under development, we're in a very good position to provide a meaningful amount of additional capacity to meet that demand.

    我們預期買方將愈來愈重視來自美國的長期合約,這將帶動市場新增產能成長。隨著第 6 至第 8 列車正在開發中,我們處於非常有利的位置,能提供相當可觀的新增產能以滿足該需求。

  • Now I'd like to turn it over to Mike to talk about our financial priorities. Mike?

    接下來我想把時間交給 Mike,請他談談我們的財務優先事項。Mike?

  • Michael Mott - Interim Principal Financial Officer

    Michael Mott - Interim Principal Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Matt, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. Matas just walk you through key construction, operational and strategic priorities for 2026. And -- now I will spend a few minutes on our financial priorities for the year.

    謝謝你,Matt,也感謝各位今天加入我們。Matt 剛帶大家回顧了 2026 年的主要建設、營運與策略優先事項。現在我將用幾分鐘談談我們今年的財務優先事項。

  • First, we are focused on actively managing debt at the project level. Specifically, we plan to continue opportunistically refinancing portions of our project level credit facilities in the debt capital markets.

    第一,我們專注於在專案層級積極管理負債。具體而言,我們計畫持續把握機會,在債務資本市場對我們部分專案層級的授信融資進行再融資。

  • Today, we have over $9 billion of credit facility commitments for Phase 1 about $3.8 billion for Train 4 and roughly $3.6 billion for Train 5. Over time, we expect to refinance each of these bank facilities into a mix of bullet and amortizing debt securities. We expect to refinance the full term loan balances before the commercial operation dates for Trains 3, 4 and 5, respectively.

    目前,我們在第一期(Phase 1)擁有超過 90 億美元的授信承諾;其中第 4 列車約 38 億美元,第 5 列車約 36 億美元。隨時間推進,我們預期將把這些銀行融資再融資為由到期一次償還(bullet)與分期攤還(amortizing)的債務證券組合。我們預期將在第 3、4、5 列車各自的商業運轉日(COD)之前,完成其全部定期貸款餘額的再融資。

  • Since Phase 1 FID, we have refinanced more than $1.85 billion Phase 1 bank debt, and we expect to continue taking advantage of market opportunities this year. Importantly, this approach allows us to better manage project-level maturities by spreading them out over time and thoughtfully balancing bullet and amortizing structures.

    自第一期 FID 以來,我們已為第一期銀行債務再融資超過 18.5 億美元,並預期今年將持續把握市場機會。重要的是,這種作法讓我們能更妥善管理專案層級到期結構,透過將到期日分散於不同時間點,並審慎平衡一次償還與攤還式結構。

  • Our second financial priority is evaluating equity financing options for Train 6. As Matt mentioned, we are targeting an FID in the second half of 2017 and subject to achieving permitting, commercialization and financing prerequisites.

    我們第二項財務優先事項是評估第 6 列車的股權融資選項。如 Matt 所提,我們目標是在 2017 年下半年做出 FID,並以取得許可、商業化與融資等先決條件為前提。

  • This timing comes before we expect to be generating meaningful operating cash flows that could fund our equity requirements for Train 6, requiring us to look to other financing alternatives for this capital.

    這個時點早於我們預期能產生足以支應第 6 列車股權需求的可觀營運現金流,因此我們需要為這筆資金尋找其他融資替代方案。

  • We expect to contract a high percentage of Train 6 capacity, which could support project-level bank facilities covering up to approximately 75% of total project costs. Maximizing project level debt lowers the overall cost of capital and meaningfully reduces our equity requirements.

    我們預期將簽約覆蓋第 6 列車產能的高比例,這可支撐專案層級銀行融資,最高可涵蓋約 75% 的總專案成本。最大化專案層級負債可降低整體資本成本,並大幅降低我們的股權需求。

  • Based on current SPA pricing, early estimates of Train 6 costs and the current interest rate environment, we expect the project to be highly accretive to next decade's distributable cash flow.

    基於目前 SPA 定價、第 6 列車成本的初步估算,以及當前利率環境,我們預期該專案將對下一個十年的可分配現金流具有高度增益(highly accretive)。

  • As a result, all else equal, we will seek to both preserve our high economic interest to Train 6 and select the equity funding options that are most accretive to our distributable cash flow on a per share basis to maximize value for our shareholders.

    因此,在其他條件相同下,我們將同時致力於維持我們對第 6 列車的高經濟權益,並選擇在每股基礎上對可分配現金流最具增益的股權資金方案,以為股東創造最大價值。

  • The FinCo bank facility that we will be used to fund a portion of our equity commitments for trains 4 and 5 remains a very attractive source of capital. It is priced at only about 150 basis points over our project level bank facilities and provides significant flexibility through delayed draws and penalty-free prepayments.

    我們將用於為第 4 與第 5 列車部分股權承諾提供資金的 FinCo 銀行融資,仍是非常具吸引力的資金來源。其定價僅較我們的專案層級銀行融資高約 150 個基點,並透過延後提用與免罰金提前償還提供高度彈性。

  • We believe additional FinCo capacity will be available to help fund a portion of Train 6 equity needs. Beyond that, we are actively evaluating a range of alternatives to fund the remaining Train 6 equity requirements.

    我們相信仍可取得額外的 FinCo 額度,以協助支應第 6 列車部分股權需求。除此之外,我們也正積極評估多種替代方案,以籌措第 6 列車其餘的股權資金需求。

  • We will continue working through these alternatives over the course of the year with a focus on finding the most accretive outcomes. -- and we expect to share more detail with you later this year as these options take shape.

    我們將在今年持續推進這些替代方案,重點在於尋求最具增益的結果——並預期在今年稍晚、當這些選項逐步成形時,與各位分享更多細節。

  • Today, we are reaffirming our early volume and cash flow guidance along with our steady-state outlook. This slide provides a high-level summary highlighting the key points. You can find more detailed assumptions and supporting slides in the investor presentation we posted earlier today.

    今天,我們重申先期(early)產量與現金流指引,以及穩態(steady-state)展望。本頁提供高層次摘要,凸顯關鍵重點。更詳細的假設與支持性投影片,請參閱我們今天稍早發布的投資人簡報。

  • Let me start with a discussion of early volumes. We continue to project total LNG production of approximately 3,800 TBtu from early cargoes beginning with startup of Train 1 in 2027 and extending through first commercial delivery to our long-term SPA customers under Train 5.

    我先從先期產量談起。我們仍預估 LNG 總產量約 3,800 TBtu,涵蓋自 2027 年第 1 列車啟動開始的先期貨物(early cargoes),並延伸至第 5 列車依長期 SPA 對長期客戶的首次商業交付。

  • Importantly, that total includes about 1,275 TBtu of LNG production in excess of what's currently contracted under long-term SPAs.

    重要的是,該總量包含約 1,275 TBtu 的 LNG 產量,超出目前已在長期 SPA 下簽約的數量。

  • As we discussed on our fourth quarter call, earlier this year, we sold forward more than 175 TBtu of those early volumes on an FOB basis.

    如同我們在第四季法說所討論的,今年稍早我們已以前交(forward)方式,按 FOB 條件出售了其中超過 175 TBtu 的先期產量。

  • These sales carry fixed liquefaction fees and are expected to achieve cargo margins of more than $3 per MMBtu calculated as the FOB LNG sales price less our expected feed gas and fuel costs. As a result, we have reduced our exposure to LNG market pricing on early Phase 1 volume by roughly one-third.

    這些銷售包含固定液化費,且預期可達到每 MMBtu 超過 3 美元的貨物毛利(cargo margin),其計算方式為 FOB LNG 銷售價格減去我們預期的進料天然氣與燃料成本。因此,我們已將第一期先期產量對 LNG 市場價格的曝險降低約三分之一。

  • As Matt mentioned earlier, we expect Bechtel to deliver our trains ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates.

    如 Matt 先前所提,我們預期 Bechtel 將在保證的實質完工日(substantial completion dates)之前交付我們的各列車。

  • As a result, the majority of the uncontracted volumes reflected in our early production guidance are expected to be produced after substantial completion and prior to DFCD under the SPAs for each trade.

    因此,我們先期產量指引中所反映的大部分未簽約產量,預期將在實質完工之後、且在各列車 SPA 下的 DFCD 之前生產。

  • As construction continues to progress, our confidence in these projections remains very strong. In fact, Bechtel is currently tracking modestly ahead of the scheduled assumed in our guidance which provides additional buffer and creates potential upside for early volumes that are not currently reflected in our projections.

    隨著施工持續推進,我們對這些預測的信心依然非常強。事實上,Bechtel 目前的進度略快於我們指引所假設的時程,這提供了額外緩衝,並為先期產量帶來潛在上行空間,而這些尚未反映在我們目前的預測中。

  • We expect the cash flow generated from sales of these early volumes to be used primarily to pay down a portion of the FinCo and Super FinCo loans that support our equity commitments for trains 4 and 5. Our early cash flow outlook guidance remains unchanged.

    我們預期出售這些先期產量所產生的現金流,將主要用於償還部分 FinCo 與 Super FinCo 貸款,這些貸款用以支援我們對第 4 與第 5 列車的股權承諾。我們的先期現金流展望指引維持不變。

  • Under an assumed margin of $5 per MMBtu on volumes in excess of our contracted SPAs, we project early production could generate approximately $2 billion and next decade share of distributable cash flow at the Rio Grande LNG project level.

    在假設超出已簽約 SPA 的產量可達每 MMBtu 5 美元毛利的情境下,我們預估先期生產可在 Rio Grande LNG 專案層級產生約 20 億美元、屬於下一個十年的可分配現金流份額。

  • At a $3 per MMBtu margin, we project approximately $1.2 billion of distributable cash flow.

    在每 MMBtu 3 美元毛利的情境下,我們預估可分配現金流約 12 億美元。

  • There is potential upside to both scenarios driven by continued schedule strength, the pace of ramp up to full production, the potential for production above nameplate capacity and possible additional market price upside.

    兩種情境皆存在上行空間,驅動因素包括時程持續強勁、爬坡至滿產的速度、產量高於名目產能(nameplate capacity)的可能性,以及市場價格可能進一步上行。

  • Turning to leverage and capital structure.

    接下來談槓桿與資本結構。

  • On our last call, we introduced a steady state leverage target of 3times to 3.5times next decade level debt to adjusted EBITDA.

    在上次電話會議中,我們提出穩態槓桿目標:下一個十年層級(next decade level)債務對調整後 EBITDA 為 3 倍至 3.5 倍。

  • We believe this target is appropriate given the long-dated highly visible cash flows created by our highly contracted portfolio with high-quality creditworthy customers.

    我們認為此目標是合適的,因為我們高度簽約的投資組合搭配高品質、具信用的客戶,創造了期限長且高度可見的現金流。

  • In the $5 per MMBtu early volume margin scenario, we expect next decade level debt to fall within that target range as we move into steady-state operations.

    在先期產量毛利每 MMBtu 5 美元的情境下,當我們進入穩態營運時,預期下一個十年層級債務將落在該目標區間內。

  • In the $3 per MMBtu scenario, we would expect to pursue additional balance sheet optimization. In that case, we would consider contracting approximately an additional 2 million tons per annum under long-term SPAs across trains 4, 5.

    在每 MMBtu 3 美元的情境下,我們預期將推動進一步的資產負債表最佳化。在此情況下,我們會考慮在第 4、5 列車之間,透過長期 SPA 額外簽約約每年 200 萬噸(2 million tons per annum)。

  • That would increase our 5 train portfolio to roughly 90% contracted, allow us to maximize project level debt, reduce overall equity requirements for both next decade and our partners.-- and ultimately reduce the amount we expect to draw under the FinCo loan, bringing next decade level debt back into our target range for steady-state operations.

    這將使我們的 5 列車投資組合簽約比例提升至約 90%,讓我們能最大化專案層級負債、降低下一個十年以及我們合作夥伴的整體股權需求——並最終降低我們預期自 FinCo 貸款提用的金額,使下一個十年層級債務回到我們穩態營運的目標區間。

  • Because we contributed the net proceeds from the Super FinCo term loan into trains 4 and 5 at FID, we do not expect any additional next decade equity funding obligations through Das on the FIMCO loan for those trains for at least the next two to three years.

    由於我們在 FID 時已將 Super FinCo 定期貸款的淨募集款項投入第 4 與第 5 列車,我們預期在未來至少兩到三年內,對於這些列車不會再透過 FinCo 貸款產生任何額外的下一個十年股權出資義務。

  • This gives us a long runway to determine the optimal level of long-term contracting. And as Matt mentioned, we are seeing very strong demand in the long-term contracting market today.

    這讓我們有很長的時間來判斷長期合約簽訂的最佳水準。而且如 Matt 所提到的,我們目前在長期合約市場看到非常強勁的需求。

  • Moving our discussion to steady-state operations.

    接著把我們的討論轉到穩態營運。

  • We are also reaffirming our steady-state guidance today. In our base case scenario, assuming $5 per MMBtu market margins, both for early volumes and during steady state, we project annual next decade distributable cash flow of approximately $500 million following DST for the Train 5 SPAs and prior to our economic interest lift for trains 4 and 5 in the mid-2030s. After the flip, beginning in the mid-2030s we project annual distributable cash flow of approximately $800 million.

    我們今天也重申我們的穩態指引。在我們的基本情境中,假設市場利差為每 MMBtu 5 美元(無論是早期產量或穩態期間皆同),我們預估在未來十年,針對第 5 列車(Train 5)的 SPA,在 DST 之後、且在 2030 年代中期第 4 與第 5 列車經濟權益提升之前,年度可分配現金流約為 5 億美元。完成權益翻轉(flip)後,自 2030 年代中期起,我們預估年度可分配現金流約為 8 億美元。

  • In our additional pricing scenario, assuming $3 per MMBtu margins on early volumes per MBG margins on steady state volumes and an incremental 2 MTPA of long-term SPAs across trains 4 and 5.

    在我們的額外定價情境中,假設早期產量利差為每 MMBtu 3 美元、穩態產量為每 MBG 的利差,並且第 4 與第 5 列車合計新增 200 萬噸/年(2 MTPA)的長期 SPA。

  • We project annual distributable cash flow of approximately $400 million prior to the economic interest split for Trains 4 and 5, which we would expect to occur a couple of years later than in our base case.

    我們預估在第 4 與第 5 列車經濟權益分割之前,年度可分配現金流約為 4 億美元;而該分割預期將比我們的基本情境晚約兩年發生。

  • In this scenario, we project post-distributable cash flow of approximately $500 million annually. As with our early volume outlook, there are potential upsides to our steady-state guidance including continued schedule improvement, ramp-up timing, production above nameplate capacity and ongoing operational efficiencies. Thank you again for joining us today.

    在此情境下,我們預估分配後的現金流每年約為 5 億美元。與我們對早期產量的展望相同,我們的穩態指引仍有潛在上行空間,包括工期持續改善、爬坡時點、產量高於名目產能,以及持續的營運效率提升。再次感謝各位今天與會。

  • With that, we'll open the call up for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Sunil Sibal, Seaport Global Securities.

    (接線員指示)Sunil Sibal,Seaport Global Securities。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for all the color. So I wanted to start off on your request for additional workovers at the site. I was curious, is that kind of based or baked into your base construction schedule? Or does that kind of accelerate that from the base schedule?

    是的,嗨。各位早安,也謝謝提供這麼多細節。我想先從你們在現場要求額外 workover 的部分開始。我想了解,這是否已經包含或納入你們的基本施工時程?還是說這會讓時程相對於基本計畫加速?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, hi, good morning. Thanks for the question. The 24/7 contemplated in the original EPC, it was an option and something that Vectecould call on if they wanted to use it. And I think that's what they're doing.

    是的,嗨,早安。謝謝你的問題。原始 EPC 合約中所設想的 24/7 是一個選項,Vecte 如果想用,是可以啟用的。我想他們現在就是在這麼做。

  • They want to maintain the current schedule, and they want the flexibility to utilize 24/7, and that's what we've requested at FERC, how they end up utilizing and how many people they actually use is up to them.

    他們希望維持目前的時程,也希望保有使用 24/7 的彈性;這就是我們向 FERC 提出的申請。至於他們最後如何運用、實際會用多少人力,則由他們決定。

  • But I wanted to make sure it was clear to the market that this is not an incremental cost to us. This is something that was already baked into the EPC and I think it's a positive sign that shows we have -- although we are already ahead of schedule, we haven't even utilized all the potential capabilities of a 24/7 schedule to further accelerate.

    但我想讓市場清楚知道,這對我們而言不是額外成本。這原本就已經納入 EPC,我認為這是正面訊號,顯示我們——雖然已經超前進度——甚至還沒有把 24/7 排程的所有潛在能力都用上來進一步加速。

  • I'm very optimistic that dental is going to remain ahead of schedule at this point. And I think by adding the 24/7 optionality, that gives us even more confidence.

    我對 dental 在此時點仍能維持超前進度非常樂觀。我認為加入 24/7 的選擇權,讓我們更有信心。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Okay, thank for that and I think you mentioned DPA in your prepared comments. So I was curious what seems like that's primarily related to accelerated permitting? Or there are other kind of potential levers that keeps you or other LNG developers in your view?

    好的,謝謝。我想你在事先準備的發言中提到 DPA。我很好奇,這看起來主要是與加速許可審批有關嗎?或者在你看來,還有其他可能的槓桿會影響你們或其他 LNG 開發商?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sorry, I missed the first part of that, referencing what?

    抱歉,我漏聽了前半段,你指的是什麼?

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • The Defense Production Act invocation.

    《國防生產法》(Defense Production Act)的啟用。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thanks. Yes, I think we'll have to see exactly how this impacts the timing. But clearly, what we've seen recently are some changes in the way FERC has handled some of the current requirements, such as the prefiling waiver for BV, which I view is very positive. That may only apply in certain circumstances.

    好的,謝謝。是的,我想我們還得看看這會如何影響時程。但很明顯,我們最近看到 FERC 在處理某些現行要求的方式上有所改變,例如對 BV 的預申報(prefiling)豁免;我認為這非常正面。不過這可能只適用於特定情況。

  • It's something that we're currently in discussions with FERC on and we're waiting to hear additional guidance.

    這也是我們目前正在與 FERC 討論的事項,我們正在等待進一步的指引。

  • But clearly, the Trump's memorandum regarding the importance of LNG along with other energy infrastructure in the US to energy security during this period of time, especially with LNG for our allies.

    但很明顯,川普的備忘錄提到 LNG 以及美國其他能源基礎設施在此期間對能源安全的重要性,特別是 LNG 對我們盟友的重要性。

  • I think it's a very positive sign and suggests that we're going to see these things move very rapidly relative to even what we've seen in the past couple of years under the first couple of years of the Trump administration.

    我認為這是非常正面的訊號,並且意味著相較於過去幾年、甚至相較於川普政府前幾年的情況,我們將看到這些事情推進得非常快。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Got it and then just a clarification on some of your comments. So I think you mentioned that as far as Train 6 is concerned, construction cost is kind of in line with Train 5 plus inflation and then he also commented that. Based on where the supply demand for long-term contracts is that that market has strengthened.

    了解。接著我想釐清你一些評論。我記得你提到,就第 6 列車(Train 6)而言,建造成本大致與第 5 列車加上通膨相符;你也提到,基於長期合約的供需狀況,該市場已經轉強。

  • So I'm kind of curious, when you think about your project, say train six, between these two factors kind of interplaying, do you see improving returns on investment on the project versus where things were train five, for train five last year?

    所以我想問,當你看你們的專案,例如第 6 列車,在這兩個因素交互影響下,你是否看到相較於去年第 5 列車時點,第 6 列車的投資報酬率有所改善?

  • And then how are you seeing in terms of the demand for additional cargoes, is that primarily Europe, Asia, any color on that in terms of your discussion so far?

    另外,你們看到對額外貨物(cargoes)的需求如何?主要來自歐洲、亞洲嗎?能否就目前的討論提供一些背景?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, on the second part, you're talking about the long-term demand, are you talking about for the excess cargo, you said additional cargoes, you mean for long-term SPAs or are you talking about for the short-term cargo sales?

    是的,關於第二部分,你說的是長期需求——你提到額外貨物,你是指長期 SPA 的額外貨量,還是指短期現貨銷售的額外貨量?

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Actually, both.

    其實兩者都是。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. All right. So first off, the economics of Train 5 were extremely good and we expect the economics of Train 6 to track closely to the economic outcome for Train 5, again, adjusted for inflation and we still have to price up the EPC contract.

    好的。首先,第 5 列車的經濟性非常好,我們預期第 6 列車的經濟結果會與第 5 列車非常接近,同樣會依通膨調整,而且我們仍需要對 EPC 合約進行報價。

  • We likely won't do that until we're confident that FID is within months of that. And it's all dependent on how long we can get price validity, but it's tended to be about 90 days or so at most.

    我們很可能要等到我們有信心 FID 距離現在只剩幾個月時才會做這件事。這也取決於我們能取得多久的報價有效期,但通常最多大約是 90 天左右。

  • But inflation, we have to monitor it. It's inflation. It's interest rates are the two main factors that are going to impact the project cost. Inflation on the EPC.

    但通膨我們必須持續監控。通膨與利率是影響專案成本的兩個主要因素:通膨影響 EPC。

  • Obviously interest rates on the financing costs and interest during construction. Both of those appear to be okay right now, but we'll have to see.

    而利率則影響融資成本以及施工期間利息。這兩者目前看起來都還可以,但我們還得再觀察。

  • We've had some early discussions with equipment providers for the main equipment. I've been very pleased, very optimistic that, we're not currently seeing the same sort of constraints that we saw back last year as far as timing, but we're not planning to FID until second-half of next year, so a lot of things can happen between now and then.

    我們已經與主要設備的供應商進行了一些初步討論。我很滿意、也很樂觀:就時程而言,我們目前沒有看到像去年那樣的限制。不過我們計畫要到明年下半年才會做 FID,因此從現在到那時之間可能會發生很多事。

  • But at least in the interim, what we're seeing right now, I should say, things are tracking, I think, very positively.

    但至少就目前我們所看到的情況——我應該說——各項進展我認為都相當正面。

  • As far as the demand for the LNG, I think it's the same group that we saw for four and five. It's Asia, Middle East, not seeing as much out of Europe. As far as long-term contracting, but still a lot of interest from major intermediaries that sell into Europe and have markets into Europe.

    至於 LNG 的需求,我認為與我們在第 4 與第 5 列車看到的買方群體相同:亞洲、中東;來自歐洲的長期簽約需求沒有那麼多。但仍有許多大型中介商表達興趣,他們會銷往歐洲,且在歐洲有市場。

  • But Asia, and I think Middle East especially, look like they're going to be players in the next phase of RGLMG's expansion in the shorter term, I'd say it's a combination of Europe and Asia.

    但亞洲,以及我認為特別是中東,看起來將會在 RGLMG 下一階段擴張中扮演角色。短期來看,我會說需求是歐洲與亞洲的組合。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks for that, and I'll turn it over for others.

    了解,謝謝你的說明,我把時間留給其他人。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wade Suki, Capital One.

    Wade Suki,Capital One。

  • Wade Suki - Analyst

    Wade Suki - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Appreciate you all taking my questions. Just thought I'd maybe just dovetail a little bit on Soumya's question, maybe expand a little bit on kind of cost inflation.

    各位早安。感謝你們回答我的問題。我想我可能接續一下 Soumya 的問題,並稍微延伸談談成本通膨。

  • I know we're not going to maybe get word till next year, but labour running a little hot. Maybe you could speak a little bit to the various equipment components, electrical, kind of just thinking about other Gulf coast projects progressing.

    我知道我們可能要到明年才會有消息,但勞動力市場有點偏熱。也許你可以稍微談談各種設備組件,像是電氣等,並且從其他墨西哥灣沿岸專案的進展來思考一下。

  • Now we have rebuilding, reconstruction going, well, hopefully going on abroad with all these damaged facilities. Just wanted to kind of speak to those items as you see them today.

    現在我們在海外也有重建、修復在進行中——嗯,希望能順利進行——因為有這些受損的設施。只是想請你就目前所見,談談這些項目。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Inflation, it appeared. You've seen the most recent numbers that came out. Inflation appears to be heating up a little bit, but over time has been relatively modest. Again, we would expect the EPC cost to go up by at least inflation.

    是的。通膨——看起來確實出現了。你也看到最近公布的數據。通膨似乎有點升溫,但長期來看一直相對溫和。同樣地,我們預期EPC成本至少會隨通膨上升。

  • A large part of our EPC, since we're sick bill in the US, is going to be labor does tend to be a little bit higher than inflation, although. This past year, it wasn't much above inflation. We all monitor this closely, not only for the EPC, but for every year, we have to look at our own employees' costs, and we want to be fair.

    我們EPC成本中很大一部分——因為我們在美國是按成本加成(cost-plus)計費——將會是勞務,而勞務通常確實會比通膨高一些,雖然今年並沒有高出太多。我們都會密切監控這點,不僅是EPC,每一年我們也必須檢視自家員工的成本,並希望做到公平。

  • So I think at least right now, it's not a worry, a major worry, but we'll see how things progress over the year. As far as equipment, again, as I said, I've been pleasantly surprised at this point.

    所以我認為至少就目前而言,這不是一個擔憂——不是重大擔憂——但我們會看看今年情況如何發展。至於設備方面,如我所說,到目前為止我感到相當驚喜。

  • With the feedback we've received from our major suppliers as far as the expected availability for equipment for trains 6, 7, and 8, and the timing of when we'll be able to receive that equipment. As far as the costs, that will be determined once we price everything up for the EPC contract.

    就我們從主要供應商那裡收到的回饋而言,關於第6、7、8列(trains)設備的預期可得性,以及我們何時能收到這些設備的時程。至於成本,將在我們把EPC合約的所有項目完成報價後才能確定。

  • I do expect electrical equipment to continue to be in high demand. Not just for LNG, but obviously for data center build-out and power generation.

    我確實預期電氣設備將持續處於高需求。不只是LNG,顯然也包括資料中心擴建以及發電。

  • So we'll see how that comes in but I would expect that any sort of cost inflation that we're going to see will likely be offset by contracting, price contracting and again, we're not seeing any sort of -- we're not seeing the same sort of price increases that we saw after the pandemic.

    所以我們會看看最後結果如何,但我預期我們可能看到的任何成本通膨,應該會被合約安排、價格鎖定所抵消;而且同樣地,我們並沒有看到——我們沒有看到疫情之後那種同等幅度的漲價。

  • Prior to phase one, which was fairly substantial and then, as you recall, between phase one and train four and five, we had about a 10% increase and there was a two year spread there.

    在第一期之前,那次漲幅相當可觀;然後,如你所記得的,在第一期與第4、5列之間,我們大約有10%的增幅,而且中間相隔兩年。

  • So it was running closer to five, 5% per annum as opposed to the current inflation. But that tracked pretty closely with what we were seeing in inflation. And obviously, some of the equipment stuff, got really hot.

    所以換算下來更接近每年約5%、5%年化,而不是目前的通膨水準。但那與我們當時看到的通膨走勢相當一致。而且顯然,有些設備項目變得非常吃緊。

  • Especially around turbine orders, et cetera, that became the constraints as far as schedule and delivery of the project.

    特別是在渦輪機訂單等方面,那些成了專案時程與交付的限制因素。

  • Wade Suki - Analyst

    Wade Suki - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Appreciate the color there. You kind of walked right into my next question, Matt, just to what extent these might kind of influence, if at all, long-term SBA pricing and always appreciate your broader thoughts or insight, whatever insight you could give us on what you're seeing out there with regard to kind of leading-edge rates. That'd be great. Any color would be awesome.

    很好,謝謝。很感謝你提供的細節。Matt,你剛好帶到我下一個問題:這些因素在多大程度上可能會影響(如果有的話)長期SBA定價?也一如既往地希望聽聽你更廣泛的看法或洞見——你能分享任何你對於市場上前端利率(leading-edge rates)的觀察都很好。有任何補充都很棒。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, look, I think the market for LNG is between $250 and $3 on a fixed fee basis, 150% and rehab in that range and I think it depends on, the returns you're going to receive are going to be dependent on whether or not you're running a brownfield project or a greenfield project.

    是的,你看,我認為LNG市場在固定費(fixed fee)基礎上的價格大概在2.50到3美元之間,150%以及再氣化(regas)也在那個區間。我認為你能獲得的報酬,取決於你是在做棕地(brownfield)專案還是綠地(greenfield)專案。

  • The greenfield projects, I think, need higher contracting prices in order to get off the ground. If they go lower than and compete with the brownfields like us.

    我認為綠地專案需要更高的簽約價格才能啟動。如果它們把價格壓低,去跟像我們這樣的棕地專案競爭。

  • I think they're going to have to get their upside through expansion. If they don't have a lot of expansion capability, I think it's a challenging market from an equity return perspective.

    我認為它們就必須透過擴建來取得上行空間。如果它們沒有太多擴建能力,從股權報酬的角度來看,我認為那會是一個具挑戰性的市場。

  • Currently, as you guys have seen for our Trade Forward V, we tend to not be on the lower end of the market. We tend to be, I think, in the mid-range of the market, kind of the true market price if you look at it from a bid-offer perspective, and that's where I expect we will be or close to that for trains six, seven, and eight.

    目前,如各位在我們的Trade Forward V所看到的,我們通常不在市場的低端。我們通常——我認為——位於市場的中段,從買賣報價(bid-offer)的角度看,算是真正的市場價格;而我預期第6、7、8列也會在那個水準,或接近那個水準。

  • Wade Suki - Analyst

    Wade Suki - Analyst

  • Fantastic. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

    太棒了。非常感謝。很感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Sheer, Tuohy Brothers.

    Craig Sheer,Tuohy Brothers。

  • Craig Shere - Analyst

    Craig Shere - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Is your net gas sourcing team fully in place now?

    早安,謝謝讓我提問。你們的淨天然氣採購(net gas sourcing)團隊現在已經完全到位了嗎?

  • You've talked about hedging out some of the initial commissioning cargoes and that you expect $3 plus net backs, net of your feedstock costs.

    你們談到對部分初期試車(commissioning)貨物做避險,並且你們預期在扣除原料氣成本後,淨回收(netbacks)可達3美元以上。

  • Could you, by the end of the year, make any more formal announcements, not just on the sales side, but on the purchase side and what you're doing there?

    你們是否能在年底前做出更正式的公告——不只是銷售端,也包括採購端——以及你們在那邊的作法?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, that's something we'll take into consideration. We've been active on the supply side for long-term and been working on that and I expect that we should be able to give an update as to what we've done on a long-term basis.

    是的,這是我們會納入考量的事情。我們在供應端一直很積極地推動長期安排,也一直在做相關工作;我預期我們應該能就我們在長期方面所完成的事項提供更新。

  • In addition, some of our customers have to give us notice before the end of the year as to their willingness to sell us gas under long-term contract prices.

    另外,我們的一些客戶必須在年底前通知我們,他們是否願意以長期合約價格賣氣給我們。

  • So either later this year, into the year, maybe in the first quarter. Craig, we can provide some guidance as to what we basis a year or greater. I think that would be a good update. So thanks for the steer.

    所以可能在今年稍晚、跨到明年,或許在第一季,Craig,我們可以就一年或更長期限的基差(basis)提供一些指引。我認為那會是一個不錯的更新。謝謝你的提醒。

  • As far as the team, yeah, together nicely. So we already had a gas supply team in place, but we're building out the short-term, what I'll call the trading and optimization team.

    至於團隊方面,是的,整合得很不錯。我們原本就有一個天然氣供應團隊,但我們正在擴編短期的——我稱之為交易與最佳化(trading and optimization)團隊。

  • They'll be managing our gas supply for us, and we expect to have them definitely in-house completed before we have to start introducing gas into the facility, which will be later this year.

    他們將為我們管理天然氣供應;而我們預期在今年稍晚、我們必須開始把天然氣導入設施之前,肯定會把人員在內部建置完成。

  • Craig Shere - Analyst

    Craig Shere - Analyst

  • And you mentioned about this 24/7 construction that Bechtel officially kind of was the one who asked for it, and it's their discretion how to use it.

    你提到這個24/7施工,是Bechtel正式提出要求的,而且如何使用由他們自行裁量。

  • Maybe you could just speak to their incentives by individual train or by individual FID. They may, depending on how well things are going overall. May not necessarily make more money or incentives to accelerate further versus where they're already tracking.

    也許你可以談談他們按單列(train)或按各個FID的激勵機制。他們可能——取決於整體進展得多好——不一定會因為進一步加速而賺到更多錢或拿到更多激勵,相較於他們目前的進度。

  • But when you think about a, well, now already five-train project moving on to six and more, that perhaps even if they slightly increase their costs.

    但當你思考一個——嗯,現在已經是五列的專案,接著要推進到第六列以及更多——也許即使他們的成本略微增加,

  • That you don't have to pay for, that their NPV building out six to eight trains over time could be higher, and that they're still incentivized to maximize this under most conditions. Could you opine on that?

    而那部分你們不需要支付——他們在時間推進下把第6到第8列建置出來的淨現值(NPV)可能更高,因此在大多數情況下他們仍有動機去最大化這件事。你能就此發表看法嗎?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think what I'd say simply, Craig, is that without getting into the details of the commercial arrangement, which I don't believe we have disclosed.

    Craig,我想我能簡單說的是:在不深入商業安排細節的前提下——我相信我們也沒有披露那些細節——

  • I would say is that Bechtel is highly incentive to deliver substantial completion of each train prior to the guaranteed substantial completion date and that there is value there that I think more than compensate them for, an increased labor cost if they choose to use it.

    我會說,Bechtel有很強的激勵在每一列於保證的實質完工日(guaranteed substantial completion date)之前達成交付的實質完工(substantial completion);而我認為其中的價值足以——甚至超過——補償他們若選擇採用24/7施工所增加的勞務成本。

  • There's also, as guarantees. I mean we're nowhere at this point, and we've already said and guided that, we're nowhere near that guaranteed substantial completion date as far as the delivery of the trains.

    另外也有一些保證機制。我的意思是,我們目前完全不在那個狀態,而且我們也已經說過並給出指引:就列車交付而言,我們離那個保證的實質完工日還差得很遠。

  • But they want to make sure that they achieve prior to guaranteed substantial completion, because if they went past it, which again, we're nowhere in this realm, there are key pole mechanisms and damages associated with that.

    但他們希望確保能在保證實質完工日前達成,因為如果超過——再次強調,我們完全不在這個範圍內——就會有關鍵的懲罰機制以及相關損害賠償。

  • So there's a bunch of different incentives for them to ensure that they deliver the trains on schedule, and there are. More incentives for them to deliver them ahead of schedule.

    所以他們有一整套不同的激勵,來確保按期交付各列;而且也有更多激勵,促使他們提前交付。

  • Craig Shere - Analyst

    Craig Shere - Analyst

  • Got it, thank you.

    了解,謝謝。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Bidwell, Webber Research.

    Alexander Bidwell,Webber Research。

  • Alexander Bidwell - Analyst

    Alexander Bidwell - Analyst

  • Morning. I appreciate the time. I just wanted to, I guess, piggyback off some of the prior questions around Phase 1 construction.

    早安。感謝撥冗。我只是想,算是延續先前幾個關於第一期(Phase 1)施工的問題。

  • With the projects tracking ahead of schedule, could you walk us through the path to maintaining that momentum as well as any avenues that could further accelerate the project schedule?

    在各項專案進度超前的情況下,能否請你帶我們了解一下,如何維持這股動能,以及是否有任何途徑可以進一步加速專案時程?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think it's -- importantly, it's execution. We don't currently have any concerns about equipment and supply chain, that appears to be going very well. So we haven't seen any major impact associated with the conflict in Iran, impacting that, which is good to see. I think the key here is we'll continue to provide you updates each quarter.

    是的。我認為——最重要的是執行。我們目前對設備與供應鏈沒有任何疑慮,看起來進展非常順利。因此,我們尚未看到與伊朗衝突相關、對此造成任何重大影響,這點很高興看到。我想關鍵在於,我們會持續每一季向各位提供更新。

  • You'll see the progress from the standpoint of the construction you note that we're engineering is effectively complete effectively complete for Phase 1 or close to it.

    你們會看到進度;就施工而言,你提到的工程設計(engineering)基本上已完成——第一期(Phase 1)已有效完成或接近完成。

  • So it really boils down to execution at the site and building it. 4 and 5, again, further out in the future, but you should expect to start seeing steel foundations being finished up this year and hopefully steel erecting at the trains.

    所以真正歸結為現場的執行與建造。第4與第5列車(Train 4、Train 5)當然還在更後面的時間點,但你們應該會看到今年開始完成鋼構基礎,並希望在各列車(trains)開始進行鋼構吊裝(steel erecting)。

  • We've already talked about the filings for Tank 3. I hope to see that progress for Train 4 as well this year. But I think it really boils down to execution. There's really there's not one thing that we're specifically looking for.

    我們已談過第3號儲槽(Tank 3)的申報(filings)。我也希望今年能看到第4列車(Train 4)有同樣的進展。但我認為這真的就是回到執行。並沒有某一件我們特別在等的事情。

  • As far as the construction, it's just ongoing, continuing to do and execute what Bechtel has been able to do so far. The next phase, though, I think, is of equal importance, and that is the commissioning phase.

    就施工而言,就是持續進行,延續並落實 Bechtel 迄今所展現的執行力。不過下一個階段我認為同等重要,那就是試運轉(commissioning)階段。

  • You'll see gas being introduced in the facility this year. You should expect to see that -- we'll be working on the warm side of the facility there.

    你們今年會看到天然氣導入(gas being introduced)到設施中。你們應該會看到——我們會在設施的「溫端」(warm side)進行作業。

  • We're looking at working on the flares, and we'll be working on the gas processing side of it. The cold side, you aren't going to -- you shouldn't expect to see that until next year when we start to -- we're seeing compressors and start testing and then start hopefully producing LNG. As we said in the first half of 2027.

    我們會處理火炬系統(flares),也會在天然氣處理端(gas processing side)作業。至於「冷端」(cold side),你們不會——你們不應該預期在明年之前看到,因為那時我們才會開始看到壓縮機(compressors)並開始測試,然後希望開始生產 LNG。正如我們所說,在 2027 年上半年。

  • We haven't provided any specificity on which month that's going to be hope to be able to provide some additional guidance on that later this year as we continue to progress with Bechtel and we get a better indication of when that's going to occur.

    我們尚未提供具體到哪一個月份;希望在今年稍晚,隨著我們與 Bechtel 持續推進、對發生時間有更清楚的掌握後,能提供更多指引。

  • And then, of course, once we get through the commissioning process, which I think I've told the market that we're doing with our operations team is seconded into Bechtel for the commissioning so that we have a seamless handover and substantial completion.

    然後當然,一旦我們完成試運轉流程——我想我已向市場說明,我們的營運團隊會借調(seconded)到 Bechtel 參與試運轉,讓交接與實質完工(substantial completion)能無縫銜接。

  • Our team will have already worked on operating the facility during the commissioning with Bechtel, which we think is best practice that should happen -- that will happen in substantial completion, which, again, is tracking ahead of guaranteed substantial completion, which currently, I think we've guided in the fourth quarter of next year.

    我們的團隊在試運轉期間就會與 Bechtel 一起操作該設施;我們認為這是最佳實務,並且應該——也將會在實質完工時落實。而實質完工的進度同樣超前於保證的實質完工(guaranteed substantial completion)時點;目前我想我們對外指引是在明年第四季。

  • So those are the key components -- we've been very -- we believe and continue to try to be conservative in our guidance to the market because this is our first train. We are -- we've been around the block on this and other projects.

    所以這些是關鍵組成——我們一直——我們相信並持續嘗試在對市場的指引上保持保守,因為這是我們的第一列車(first train)。我們——在這方面以及其他專案上,我們都有經驗。

  • We -- we know how these things work. So far, everything has gone extremely well. We would anticipate based on how well has done building the facility that we expect the commissioning and hand over to go extremely well also.

    我們——我們知道這些事情如何運作。到目前為止,一切都進展得非常順利。基於 Bechtel 在建造設施方面的表現,我們預期試運轉與交接也會非常順利。

  • But we're not planning for the best, hoping for the best. We're going to plan for expected disruptions as you typically see when you're starting up a facility, especially a new one, we'll learn lessons from that. And then we would expect trains 2 and 3 to go even smoother because we'll learn from Train 1 commissioning and start-up.

    但我們不會只以最佳情境來規劃、只寄望最好。我們會把通常在啟動設施時會遇到的干擾納入規劃,尤其是新設施啟動時;我們會從中汲取經驗。接著我們預期第2與第3列車(Train 2、Train 3)會更順利,因為我們會從第1列車(Train 1)的試運轉與啟動中學到經驗。

  • So I think these are the key components and again, we will continue to update the market as we can with more details on when that facility is going to going to start up, when we expect to produce first LNG, and when we expect to load our first cargo. And then the spread of timing between Train 1 and Train 2, Train 2 and Train 3.

    所以我認為這些是關鍵要素;同樣地,我們會在可行時持續向市場更新更多細節,包括該設施何時啟動、我們預期何時產出第一批 LNG、以及何時裝載第一船貨(first cargo)。以及第1列車與第2列車、第2列車與第3列車之間的時間間隔。

  • Alexander Bidwell - Analyst

    Alexander Bidwell - Analyst

  • All right. Appreciate the color. And then just I guess real quick on the shipping side. Was wondering if you could provide any additional color on your plans around shipping capacity. I understand you guys have some vessels set to be chartered in. But is there any plans to expand or add additional vessels to handle the merchant book?

    好的,感謝補充說明。接著我想很快問一下航運端。想請問你們在運力規劃上是否能提供更多細節。我了解你們有一些船舶將以租船方式引進,但是否有計畫擴充或新增更多船舶來支應自營(merchant)部位?

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We have five vessels under Charter, three long-term charters that are utilized for our Guandong DES deal, we've charted those from Dynagas. There are three new vessels. In fact, the first one just sailed yesterday from the Hyundai shipyard, I was there. on Tuesday and took a tour of the vessel.

    是的。我們有五艘船在租約之下,其中三艘是長期租船,用於我們的廣東 DES 合約;我們向 Dynagas 租用。那三艘都是新船。事實上,第一艘昨天才剛從現代(Hyundai)船廠出航,我人在現場。我週二也登船參觀。

  • It's a phenomenal piece of kit that Hyundai has built for Donna Gas and Donna Gas as designed. We have two more of those coming this year. And then we have two more vessels that we've subchartered. All these will be used from our commissioning process for Train 1, and then we'll start utilizing those larger ships that we have -- that we are being built for us to deliver to our long-term market in China.

    那是現代為 Dynagas 建造、並依 Dynagas 設計的一套非常出色的設備。我們今年還會再交付兩艘。同時我們還有另外兩艘船是以轉租(subchartered)方式取得。這些船都會在第1列車(Train 1)的試運轉期間使用;之後我們會開始使用那些為我們建造、較大型的船舶,將 LNG 運送至我們在中國的長期市場。

  • We will likely run a DES type business for our excess cargoes. We believe that being able to do a delivered a ship business for our excess volumes, provides additional flexibility and optionality and should increase the value.

    我們很可能會針對多餘貨量(excess cargoes)經營 DES 類型的業務。我們相信,能以到岸交付(delivered ex-ship, DES)的方式處理多餘量,能提供額外的彈性與選擇權,並應可提升價值。

  • So we do anticipate chartering more shifts on a short-term basis for Phase 1 volumes above the firm volumes that we've already sold. And then for Train 4 and 5, we are looking at additional capacity potentially on a longer-term basis. due to the fact that we currently, as you know, haven't sold all of our firm capacity out of those trains.

    因此,我們確實預期會以短期方式再租用更多船舶,用於第一期(Phase 1)中超出我們已售出之確定量(firm volumes)的部分。至於第4與第5列車(Train 4、Train 5),我們也在評估可能以較長期方式增加額外運力,原因是如你所知,我們目前尚未把那些列車的全部確定產能(firm capacity)售罄。

  • However, as Mike mentioned in his comments, should we decide to sell more of that capacity a year or two from now, depending on how the short-term market goes, that may reduce how much capacity we would need under a longer-term basis. So we're going to be very mindful of that and make sure that we don't over contract capacity before we need it. But we will be chartering more ships simply put.

    不過,正如 Mike 在評論中提到的,如果我們決定在一到兩年後再出售更多該等產能——取決於短期市場走勢——那可能會降低我們在較長期基礎下所需的運力。因此我們會非常謹慎,確保在真正需要之前不會過度簽約運力。但簡單說,我們會再租更多船。

  • Wade Suki - Analyst

    Wade Suki - Analyst

  • Alright. Thank you. Appreciate the color, and I'll turn it back over.

    好的,謝謝。感謝補充說明,我把時間交回去。

  • Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Schatzman - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our call today. Thank you for joining and for your interest in NextDecade.

    我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與,並感謝各位對 NextDecade 的關注。