NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to NextDecade Corporation's fourth-quarter 2025 investor call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

早安.歡迎參加 NextDecade Corporation 2025 年第四季投資者電話會議和網路直播。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Megan Light, NextDecade's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給 NextDecade 的投資者關係副總裁 Megan Light。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NextDecade's fourth-quarter 2025 investor update call and webcast. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available on our website at www.next-decade.com.

謝謝大家，大家早安。歡迎參加 NextDecade 2025 年第四季投資者更新電話會議和網路直播。今天電話會議的幻燈片簡報和網路直播連結可在我們的網站 www.next-decade.com 上找到。

Today, I am joined by Matt Schatzman, NextDecade's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Mott, NextDecade's interim Chief Financial Officer.

今天，我邀請到了 NextDecade 的董事長兼執行長 Matt Schatzman 和 NextDecade 的臨時財務長 Mike Mott。

Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that discussion on this call, including answers to your questions, contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of US federal securities laws. These statements have been based on assumptions and analysis made by NextDecade in light of current expectations, perceptions of historical trends, current conditions, and projections about future events and trends. Although NextDecade believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that the expectations will prove to be correct.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，這次電話會議的討論，包括對你們問題的回答，包含美國聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於 NextDecade 根據當前預期、對歷史趨勢的看法、當前狀況以及對未來事件和趨勢的預測而做出的假設和分析。儘管 NextDecade 認為這些前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但它不能保證這些預期最終會實現。

NextDecade's actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in NextDecade's periodic reports that are filed with and available from the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, discussion on this call includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. A definition of and additional information regarding these measures can be found in the appendix to our presentation.

由於各種因素的影響，NextDecade 的實際業績可能與這些前瞻性聲明中預期的業績存在重大差異，這些因素包括 NextDecade 向美國證券交易委員會提交並可從該委員會獲取的定期報告中討論的因素。此外，本次電話會議的討論還包括提及某些非GAAP財務指標，例如調整後的EBITDA和可分配現金流量。有關這些措施的定義和更多信息，請參閱我們簡報的附錄。

And now I will turn the call over to Matt Schatzman, NextDecade's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

現在我將把電話交給 NextDecade 的董事長兼執行長 Matt Schatzman。

Thank you, Megan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. 2025 was another transformational year for the NextDecade. We achieved milestones across multiple facets of the business, from construction and development to commercial and financial.

謝謝你，梅根，大家早安。感謝您今天參與我們的活動。 2025年是「下一個十年」又一個具有變革意義的年份。我們在業務的各個方面都取得了里程碑式的成就，從建設和開發到商業和財務。

Last year, we executed five 20-year LNG sale and purchase agreements totaling 7.2 million tons per annum with Total Energies, Aramco, JERA, EQT, and ConocoPhillips. These agreements, along with the 1.9 million ton per annum SPA executed with ADNOC in 2024, completed the commercialization of Trains 4 and 5 at strong LNG prices.

去年，我們與道達爾能源、沙特阿美、JERA、EQT 和康菲石油公司簽署了五份為期 20 年的液化天然氣銷售和購買協議，總交易量為每年 720 萬噸。這些協議，加上 2024 年與 ADNOC 簽訂的 190 萬噸/年的 SPA，在液化天然氣價格堅挺的情況下，完成了 4 號和 5 號生產線的商業化。

Across all 9.1 million tons per annum of SPAs executed for Trains 4 and 5, our fixed liquefaction fees totaled approximately $1.2 billion annually before escalation for inflation. We achieved positive final investment decisions or FIDs on Trains 4 and 5 in September and October, respectively, bringing us to 30 million tons per annum of LNG production capacity under construction at the Rio Grande LNG facility.

在為 4 號和 5 號生產線執行的每年 910 萬噸的 SPA 中，我們的固定液化費用總額約為每年 12 億美元（未考慮通貨膨脹因素）。我們在 9 月和 10 月分別對 4 號和 5 號生產線做出了積極的最終投資決定 (FID)，使 Rio Grande LNG 工廠正在建造的液化天然氣年產能達到 3,000 萬噸。

We fully funded each train at FID with approximately 60% debt and 40% equity, and we fully funded NextDecade's equity commitments using a back leveraging approach that enabled us to secure funding with no material impact to common shares outstanding, a creative and unique approach that we're proud of, as it creates a bridge to an efficient, steady state capital structure without materially impacting our common shares outstanding.

我們在最終投資決定 (FID) 時，以約 60% 的債務和 40% 的股權為每列火車提供了全額資金。此外，我們也採用反向槓桿融資的方式，為 NextDecade 的股權承諾提供了全額資金。這種方式使我們能夠在不顯著影響流通普通股的情況下獲得資金，這是一種富有創意且獨特的融資方式，我們為此感到自豪，因為它在不顯著影響流通普通股的情況下，為高效、穩定的資本結構搭建了一座橋樑。

NextDecade has an initial economic interest of 40% in Train 4 and 50% in Train 5. Our economic interest increased to 60% and 70%, respectively, once our financial partners achieve a certain return on their investments in each train.

NextDecade 對 4 號列車擁有 40% 的初始經濟權益，對 5 號列車擁有 50% 的初始經濟權益。一旦我們的金融合作夥伴在每列火車上獲得一定的投資回報，我們的經濟利益將分別增加到 60% 和 70%。

Throughout 2025, we also continued to progress the construction of Phase 1 safely, on budget, and ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion date in partnership with Bechtel. Bechtel has an unmatched track record of LNG execution on the US Gulf Coast, and we expect our trains at the Rio Grande LNG facility to continue the streak of strong execution.

2025 年全年，我們還與 Bechtel 合作，繼續安全、按預算推進第一階段的建設，並提前完成了保證的實質竣工日期。Bechtel 在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣專案執行方面擁有無可比擬的業績記錄，我們預計我們在裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣工廠的生產線將繼續保持強勁的執行力。

As of January 2026, Trains 1 and 2 are almost 65% complete, and Train 3 is almost 40% complete. We have a high level of confidence in our early volume projections, and based on Bechtel's recent progress, we may have additional early volumes to sell. Mike will discuss our volume projections in more detail with our guidance slides. As construction progresses, so do our operational readiness initiatives.

截至 2026 年 1 月，1 號和 2 號列車已完成近 65%，3 號列車已完成近 40%。我們對早期的銷售預測非常有信心，根據貝克特爾公司最近的進展，我們可能還有更多的早期銷售可以出售。Mike 將在後續的指導幻燈片中更詳細地討論我們的銷售預測。隨著建設的推進，我們的營運準備工作也不斷推進。

We began a company-wide operational readiness program in early 2024. For the past two years, we've been diligently working to put people, processes, and technologies in place to ensure a safe, efficient, and effective transition to commissioning and operations and to position the NextDecade for operational excellence. We've also been advancing our natural gas supply and transportation strategy and onboarding operational staff and back office personnel to support operations.

我們在 2024 年初啟動了一項全公司範圍的營運準備計畫。在過去的兩年裡，我們一直在努力落實人員、流程和技術，以確保安全、高效、有效地過渡到調試和營運階段，並為下一個十年實現卓越營運做好準備。我們一直在推進天然氣供應和運輸策略，並招募營運人員和後台人員來支援營運。

Finally, early last year, we outlined our development plans for Train 6 through 8 at the Rio Grande LNG facility. We initiated the pre-filing process with FERC for Train 6 and a third berth in November, and we plan to file a full application with FERC for this expansion in mid 2026. Our ultimate development goal at the Rio Grande Energy facility is to double our capacity from 30 million tons per annum to 60 million tons per annum or 10 trains.

最後，在去年年初，我們概述了裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣工廠第 6 至 8 號生產線的開發計畫。我們於 11 月啟動了向聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC) 提交 6 號生產線和第三個泊位的預申請程序，併計劃於 2026 年年中向 FERC 提交該擴建項目的完整申請。我們在裡奧格蘭德能源工廠的最終發展目標是將產能從每年 3,000 萬噸提高到每年 6,000 萬噸，即 10 列生產線。

Our key priorities for 2026 are focused on maximizing the value of the NextDecade, and we've made meaningful progress toward our goals in the first two months of the year. First, one of our highest priorities is progressing construction at the Rio Grande LNG facility safely, on budget, and ahead of schedule. Ensuring our employees in Bechtel's get home safely every day is of prime importance. We achieved excellent safety metrics in 2025 with a total recordable incident rate or TRIR of 0.22, and we and Bechtel are focused on maintaining a low TRIR throughout the construction of the Rio Grande LNG facility.

我們 2026 年的主要工作重點是最大限度地發揮「下一個十年」的價值，並且在今年的前兩個月裡，我們在實現目標方面取得了實質進展。首先，我們最重要的任務之一是安全、按預算、提前推進裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣設施的建設。確保貝克特爾公司的員工每天安全回家至關重要。我們在 2025 年取得了優異的安全指標，總可記錄事故率 (TRIR) 為 0.22，我們和貝克特爾公司致力於在裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣設施的整個建設過程中保持較低的 TRIR。

Bechtel has shown impressive performance at the site, progressing construction of Phase 1 ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates, while achieving high safety standards and working within our project budget. Now that Trains 4 and 5 are under construction, we look to build upon the high-quality work that has been done thus far with Phase 1.

Bechtel 在現場表現出色，提前完成了第一階段的建設，比保證的實質性竣工日期提前完成，同時實現了高安全標準，並在我們的專案預算範圍內開展工作。現在 4 號和 5 號列車正在建設中，我們希望在第一階段迄今為止所取得的高品質工作基礎上繼續前進。

Second, we will continue to prepare our organization to begin commissioning activities at the facility this year, first LNG production in the first half of 2027 and transitioning train one to operations later in 2027. We are onboarding experienced, highly skilled team members, implementing systems and processes across the organization, and ensuring we're in place to support a smooth transition into operations. The work we're doing now and later this year will position us for operational excellence.

其次，我們將繼續做好準備，以便今年開始該設施的調試活動，在 2027 年上半年實現首次液化天然氣生產，並在 2027 年稍後將一號生產線過渡到營運。我們正在引進經驗豐富、技能精湛的團隊成員，在整個組織內實施系統和流程，並確保我們已到位，以支援順利過渡到營運階段。我們現在和今年稍後所做的工作將使我們具備卓越的營運能力。

Next, we are managing our near-term exposure to LNG market margins through the sale of projected early LNG cargos. Earlier this year, we began marketing -- early cargo is projected to be produced prior to the commencement of our long-term SPAs. Year to date, we have sold over 175 trillion BTUs on a free onboard or FOB basis with fixed liquefaction fees that are expected to achieve margins calculated as the FOB LNG sales price less our expected cost of natural gas feedstock and fuel of over $3 per MMBtu. Throughout this year and early next year, we expect to sell additional early volumes as we increase our visibility of expected early LNG production and gain assurance on timing from Bechtel.

接下來，我們將透過出售預計的早期液化天然氣貨物來管理我們近期對液化天然氣市場利潤率的風險敞口。今年早些時候，我們開始進行市場推廣——預計早期貨物將在我們的長期採購協議生效之前生產。今年迄今為止，我們已售出超過 175 兆 BTU 的離岸價 (FOB) 液化天然氣，並收取固定的液化費用。預計這將實現利潤，計算方法為：離岸價液化天然氣銷售價格減去我們預計的天然氣原料和燃料成本，每百萬英熱單位 (MMBtu) 超過 3 美元。在今年及明年年初，隨著我們對預期早期液化天然氣產量的可見度提高，以及從貝克特爾公司獲得時間表的保證，我們預計將售出更多早期產量。

Our final key priority for this year is advancing the development and permitting of Trains 6 through 8. We're bullish about the long-term LNG market and the need for incremental LNG supplies starting in the 2030s. In addition, we expect the permitting climate under the current administration to foster faster permit approval, which could allow us to FID Train 6 as early as the second half of next year, subject to commercialization, EPC contracting, and financing.

今年的最後一個重點任務是推進 6 號至 8 號列車的開發和許可工作。我們看好液化天然氣市場的長期前景，並預計從 2030 年代開始，液化天然氣供應量將會增加。此外，我們預計在現任政府的領導下，審批環境將促進許可證審批速度加快，這可能使我們能夠在明年下半年最終決定第六條生產線的建設，前提是商業化、EPC合約和融資順利進行。

One of our key priorities is progressing construction at the Rio Grande LG facility safely, on budget, and on or ahead of schedule. Phase 1 progressed significantly during 202. And as of January 2026, Trains 1 and 2 are close to 65% complete and Train 3 is nearly 40% complete. Train 4, which achieved FID in September of 2025, is 7.8% complete; and Train 5, which achieved FID in October of 2025, is 3.3% complete.

我們的主要優先事項之一是安全、按預算、按時或提前推進裡奧格蘭德LG工廠的建設。第一階段在 202 年取得了顯著進展。截至 2026 年 1 月，1 號和 2 號列車已完成近 65%，3 號列車已完成近 40%。第 4 列火車於 2025 年 9 月獲得最終投資決定，目前已完成 7.8%；第 5 列火車於 2025 年 10 月獲得最終投資決定，目前已完成 3.3%。

Since our last update, Train 1's structural steel and equipment installation has become substantially complete. Early electrical commissioning of Train 1 is underway, along with ongoing piping installation and testing, cable pulling, and the installation of main compressors. Additionally, the marine loading and tug berths are advancing with civil and topside construction, including berth one loading arm installation.

自上次更新以來，1號列車的結構鋼和設備安裝已基本完成。1 號列車的早期電氣調試工作正在進行中，同時管道安裝和測試、電纜敷設以及主壓縮機的安裝也在進行中。此外，船舶裝卸和拖船泊位的土木工程和上部結構建設也在推進中，包括一號泊位裝卸臂的安裝。

Construction activities are also continuing to progress for Trains 2 and 3 with continued structural steel erection, piping fabrication, rebar installation, and equipment setting. Progress on Train 4 since FID has been focused primarily on engineering drawings and issuing purchase requisitions for key equipment, and Bechtel is advancing soil stabilization and foundations in the Train 4 area. Progress on Train 5 since FID has been focused primarily on issuing purchase requisitions for key equipment, and the Train 5 area is an early site preparation.

2號和3號列車的建設活動也持續進行，包括鋼結構安裝、管道製造、鋼筋安裝和設備安裝等工作。自最終投資決定以來，4 號列車的進展主要集中在工程圖和關鍵設備的採購申請上，而貝克特爾公司正在推進 4 號列車區域的土壤穩定和地基工程。自最終投資決定以來，5 號列車的進度主要集中在關鍵設備的採購申請上，而 5 號列車區域則是早期場地準備工作。

Phase 1 continues to track ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates, giving us very strong confidence in our projections of early LNG production volumes. We expect first LNG production from train one in the first half of 2027.

第一階段的進展持續領先於保證的實質完工日期，這讓我們對早期液化天然氣產量的預測充滿信心。我們預計一號生產線將於 2027 年上半年開始投產首批液化天然氣產品。

I'm incredibly proud of the construction team and the work they have done at the site alongside Bechtel. Our construction team and our operations team will continue to partner closely with Bechtel this year in support of safe construction and a safe, effective, efficient transition to commissioning and operations.

我為施工團隊以及他們與貝克特爾公司在現場所做的工作感到無比自豪。今年，我們的施工團隊和營運團隊將繼續與貝克特爾公司緊密合作，以支援安全施工，並安全、有效、有效率地過渡到調試和營運階段。

Our ultimate development goal at the Rio Grande LNG facility is to double our capacity to 60 million tons per annum, or 10 liquefaction trains. Toward that end, we're continuing to advance the development and permitting of Trains 6 through 8. Our plan is to design once and build many, and we expect these trains to benefit from utilizing our established Trains 1 through 5 design and technologies, which we expect will enable us to accelerate the design and construction of our additional expansion capacity at the Rio Grande LNG site.

我們在裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣工廠的最終發展目標是將產能翻一番，達到每年 6,000 萬噸，即 10 條液化生產線。為此，我們正在繼續推進 6 號至 8 號列車的開發和許可工作。我們的計劃是設計一次，建造多條生產線，我們希望這些生產線能夠受益於我們已建立的 1 號至 5 號生產線的設計和技術，我們預計這將使我們能夠加快裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣廠額外擴建產能的設計和建設。

Train 6 is being developed adjacent to Train 5 and inside the existing levee at Rio Grande LNG in an area that is currently being used as an equipment laydown area and on-site concrete batch plant. We initiated the pre-filing process with FERC in November of 2025 for Train 6 and a third berth, and we expect to file a full application mid this year.

6 號生產線正在裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣工廠的 5 號生產線旁邊，在現有的堤壩內建設，該區域目前用作設備堆放區和現場混凝土攪拌站。我們於 2025 年 11 月啟動了 6 號生產線和第三個泊位的向聯邦能源管理委員會提交預申請的程序，預計將於今年年中提交正式申請。

We expect the Train 6 permitting process to be relatively easy and straightforward because Train 6 is identical and designed to Trains 1 through 5, will be located inside the existing levee, and was initially contemplated within our original design footprint at the site. The current administration has shown strong support for natural gas infrastructure, and we believe it is possible we could receive the FERC permit for Train 6 as early as mid 2027.

我們預計 6 號列車的許可流程將相對容易和直接，因為 6 號列車與 1 號至 5 號列車相同，設計也相同，將位於現有堤壩內，並且最初是在我們最初的場地設計範圍內考慮的。現任政府對天然氣基礎設施建設表現出了強烈的支持，我們相信最早在 2027 年年中，我們有可能獲得 FERC 頒發的 6 號生產線許可證。

We began early discussions with counterparties for Train 6. We're seeing strong interest in the market for incremental LNG in the 2030s and beyond, which is the timeline when we estimate Train 6 to be operational, depending on the timing of commercialization, EPC contracting, and financing.

我們已與第六列火車計畫的交易對手方展開了早期討論。我們看到，市場對 2030 年代及以後的增量液化天然氣需求十分旺盛，我們預計 6 號生產線將於該時間段投入運營，具體取決於商業化、EPC 合約和融資的時間表。

We continue to believe the market is underestimating global natural gas demand growth in the 2030s and that global gas demand growth will continue to be bolstered by fueling economic growth in developing countries, supporting mass industrialization and feeding growing power demand. Prioritization of energy security around the world also supports global gas demand growth, and natural gas is emerging as the clear winner in power generation for data centers and other AI-driven applications.

我們仍然認為，市場低估了 2030 年代全球天然氣需求的成長，全球天然氣需求的成長將繼續受到發展中國家經濟成長、支持大規模工業化和滿足不斷增長的電力需求的推動。全球對能源安全的重視也支撐了全球天然氣需求的成長，天然氣正在成為資料中心和其他人工智慧驅動應用發電領域的明顯贏家。

We also expect recent pressure or near-term LNG prices to be a net positive for the industry as we predict it will spur additional near-term demand for natural gas in price sensitive regions which will create long-term demand as additional natural gas infrastructure is built and utilized. The commercial environment for long-term contracting remains strong, and we're seeing indications from many potential counterparties that the world is going to be short gas and LNG in the early 2030s, which puts us in a great position as we seek to commercialize Train 6 and later Trains 7 and 8.

我們也預計，近期液化天然氣價格的壓力或短期價格波動對該產業來說將是利好消息，因為我們預測這將刺激價格敏感地區對天然氣的短期額外需求，隨著更多天然氣基礎設施的建設和利用，這將創造長期需求。長期合約的商業環境仍然強勁，許多潛在的交易對手都表示，2030 年代初全球天然氣和液化天然氣將出現短缺，這使我們在尋求實現 6 號生產線以及後來的 7 號和 8 號生產線的商業化時處於非常有利的地位。

We're continuing to evaluate the location of Trains 7 and 8 on either the east or west side of the Rio Grande LNG facility site. The location that is not used for Trains 7 and 8 is expected to be used for future Trains 9 and 10. We expect to advance the development of Trains 7 and 8 this year and maintain a goal of permitting them under the current administration. We currently have full ownership of Trains 6 through 8, and we believe these trains could contribute significantly to the future NextDecade distributable cash flows across a wide range of financing scenarios. This structure and financing options with the goal -- with the max with the goal of maximizing distributable cash flow on a per share basis.

我們正在繼續評估 7 號和 8 號生產線在格蘭德河液化天然氣設施廠址的東側或西側的位置。7號和8號列車未使用的地點預計將用於未來的9號和10號列車。我們預計今年將推動7號和8號列車的開發，並爭取在本屆政府的領導下獲得許可。我們目前擁有 6 號至 8 號列車的全部所有權，我們相信這些列車可以在各種融資方案中為 NextDecade 的未來可分配現金流做出重大貢獻。這種結構和融資方案的目標是－最大限度地提高每股可分配現金流。

Now I'd like to turn over to Mike to discuss our recent financial highlights, an update on early volumes and cash flows, and additional guidance pricing scenarios. Mike?

現在我想把麥克風交給 Mike，讓他來討論我們最近的財務亮點、早期銷售和現金流的最新情況，以及其他指導性定價方案。麥克風？

Thanks, Matt. Let's recap our recent financing transactions. At the FIDs of Trains 4 and 5, we fully funded each train, including our equity commitments for those trains. No incremental capital raises are expected to fund Trains 4 and 5 construction based on current funding sources in place and the estimated total project costs of approximately $6.7 billion per train, which are unchanged since FID.

謝謝你，馬特。讓我們回顧一下我們最近的融資交易。在 4 號和 5 號列車的最終投資決定中，我們為每列列車提供了全額資金，包括我們對這些列車的股權承諾。根據現有資金來源和每列火車約 67 億美元的預計總項目成本（自最終投資決定以來未發生變化），預計不會透過新增融資來為 4 號和 5 號火車的建設提供資金。

The funded Trains 4 and 5 at their respective FIDs with a mix of approximately 60% debt and 40% equity. We primarily use delayed draw, senior secured, non-recourse project finance credit facilities for the debt portion with approximately 3.8 billion for Train 4 and 3.6 billion for Train 5. For Train 5, we also utilize $500 million of senior secure non-recourse private placement notes that will be issued in tranches through October 2026. As of yearend 2025, $150 million of those notes were issued and outstanding.

已為 4 號和 5 號列車項目分別在最終投資決定 (FID) 時提供資金，資金構成中約有 60% 為債務，40% 為股權。我們主要採用延期提取、優先擔保、無追索權項目融資信貸安排來支付債務部分，其中 4 號列車約 38 億美元，5 號列車約 36 億美元。對於第 5 列火車，我們還將使用 5 億美元的優先擔保無追索權私募票據，這些票據將分批發行，直至 2026 年 10 月。截至 2025 年底，已發行並未償還的票據總額為 1.5 億美元。

Train 4 has approximately $2.8 billion in total equity commitments consisting of about $1.7 billion from our equity partners and $1.1 billion from NextDecade. We initially hold a 40% economic interest in Train 4, which will increase to 60% once our financial partners receive certain returns on their investments in Train 4.

Train 4 的總股權承諾約為 28 億美元，其中約 17 億美元來自我們的股權合作夥伴，11 億美元來自 NextDecade。我們最初持有 Train 4 40% 的經濟權益，一旦我們的金融合作夥伴從其對 Train 4 的投資中獲得一定的回報，該權益將增加到 60%。

Train 5 has approximately $2.6 billion in total equity commitments, with roughly $1.3 billion contributed by our equity partners and $1.3 billion by NextDecade. Our initial Train 5 economic interest of 50% will increase to 70% once our financial partners receive certain returns on their investments in Train 5. To fully fund NextDecade's approximate $2.4 billion in total equity commitments across Trains 4 and 5, we entered into approximately $2.7 billion in term loans and utilized over $200 million from cash on hand.

Train 5 的總股權承諾約為 26 億美元，其中約 13 億美元來自我們的股權合作夥伴，13 億美元來自 NextDecade。我們最初在 Train 5 專案中擁有 50% 的經濟權益，一旦我們的金融合作夥伴從他們在 Train 5 專案中的投資中獲得一定的回報，我們的權益將增加到 70%。為了全額資助 NextDecade 對 4 號和 5 號列車的約 24 億美元股權承諾，我們簽訂了約 27 億美元的定期貸款，並動用了超過 2 億美元的現金。

The term loans have an attractive all-in expected cost of approximately 9% and provide a bridge to a simplified optimized capital structure during steady state operations. The term loans include a $1.2 billion Super FinCo term loan and an approximate $1.5 billion FinCo bank facility.

定期貸款的預期總成本約為 9%，具有吸引力，可在穩定營運期間為簡化和優化資本結構提供過渡。定期貸款包括 Super FinCo 的 12 億美元定期貸款和 FinCo 的約 15 億美元銀行貸款。

The FinCo Bank facility provides us with an immense amount of flexibility through its structure with delayed draws and prepayable commitments without penalty. It also has attractive pricing at so for plus 350 basis points, which is only 150 basis points above the margin of our Train 4 and 5 project level credit facilities.

FinCo 銀行提供的融資便利結構為我們提供了極大的靈活性，允許我們延期提款和提前償還貸款，且不收取任何罰款。它的定價也很有吸引力，只需增加 350 個基點，這只比我們 4 號和 5 號生產線專案級信貸安排的利潤率高出 150 個基點。

Turning to the corporate holding company level, in November, we amended our loan at Rio Grande LNG Super Holdings to provide an incremental $50 million of capital for corporate level liquidity. This transaction resulted in a $100 million, 8% exchangeable loan due in 2030 with interest payable in cash or in kind at our election. This loan is exchangeable into NextDecade common shares at $9.50 per share -- the original loan, which was amended to a 13.5% loan due in 2030 with a $175 million initial principal amount, before paid in kind interest.

再來看企業控股公司層面，11 月，我們修改了對 Rio Grande LNG Super Holdings 的貸款，為公司層面的流動性提供了額外的 5000 萬美元資金。這項交易促成了一筆 1 億美元、年利率 8% 的可交換貸款，該貸款將於 2030 年到期，利息可以現金或實物支付，由我們選擇。這筆貸款可以以每股 9.50 美元的價格兌換成 NextDecade 的普通股——這筆貸款最初被修改為 2030 年到期的 13.5% 貸款，初始本金為 1.75 億美元，利息以實物支付。

Last fall, we provided our projected LNG production volumes from early cargos expected to be produced from start of the Train 1 in 2027 through the date of first commercial deliveries or DFCD of LNG supply to our long-term SPA customers in Train 5. We continue to have high confidence in these projections based on Bechtel's progress today.

去年秋天，我們提供了預計的液化天然氣產量，從 2027 年 1 號生產線投產之日起，到 5 號生產線首次商業交付或向我們的長期 SPA 客戶交付液化天然氣的 DFCD 日期為止。根據貝克特爾公司今天的進展，我們仍然對這些預測充滿信心。

During the projection period, we expect to produce and sell a total of approximately 3,800 TBtus of LNG, including 1,275 TBtus above the volumes that are contracted to be sold under our long-term LNG SPAs. We expect Bechtel to deliver our trains ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion date, and the large majority of the estimated uncontracted volume shown here relate to early production after expected substantial completion and ahead of DFCD under the SPAs for each train.

在預測期內，我們預計將生產和銷售約 3,800 TBtus 的液化天然氣，其中包括根據我們的長期液化天然氣銷售協議約定銷售的量之外的 1,275 TBtus。我們預計貝克特爾將在保證實質性完工日期之前交付我們的列車，並且此處顯示的估計未簽約數量的大部分與預期實質性完工後以及根據每列列車的SPA協議在DFCD之前進行的早期生產有關。

As Matt said, Phase 1 continues to track ahead of the guaranteed substantial completion dates, and we expect accelerated progress on Trains 4 and 5 as they are identical in designed to Phase 1 and will benefit from efficiencies identified and lessons learned during the Phase 1 construction.

正如 Matt 所說，第一階段的進展繼續領先於保證的實質完工日期，我們預計 4 號和 5 號列車的進展將加快，因為它們的設計與第一階段相同，並將受益於第一階段建設過程中發現的效率提升和吸取的經驗教訓。

We are very confident in these production numbers. And as construction continues to progress incredibly well, there is a possibility we will have additional volumes to sell above the projections shown here. We have begun and will continue to manage uncontracted LNG production with the goal of reducing our exposure to short-term market price volatility.

我們對這些產量數據非常有信心。而且由於施工進度非常順利，我們有可能最終的銷售量會超過這裡顯示的預測值。我們已經開始並將繼續管理未簽訂合約的液化天然氣生產，以降低我們受短期市場價格波動的影響。

Early this year, we began marketing early cargos that we expect to produce, and we are seeing strong appetite for these volumes. Year to date, we have sold over 175 TBtu on a free on board or FOB basis, with fixed liquefaction fees that are expected to achieve a cargo margin calculated as the FOB LNG sales price less our expected cost of natural gas feedstock and fuels of over $3 per MMBtu.

今年年初，我們開始銷售預計生產的早期貨物，我們看到市場對這些貨物的需求非常強勁。今年迄今為止，我們已售出超過 175 TBtu 的液化天然氣，採用船上交貨價 (FOB) 或固定液化費，預計可實現超過 3 美元/百萬英熱單位 (MMBtu) 的貨物利潤，該利潤按 FOB 液化天然氣銷售價格減去我們預計的天然氣原料和燃料成本計算。

These sales reduce the Phase 1 uncontracted early LNG production exposed to LNG market price fluctuations by 33%. Market margins today remain healthy and above long-term contracting rates. We are seeing strong demand for our LNG.

這些銷售使第一階段未簽訂合約的早期液化天然氣產量（易受液化天然氣市場價格波動影響）減少了 33%。目前的市場利潤率依然健康，高於長期收縮水準。我們看到市場對我們的液化天然氣產品需求強勁。

Throughout this year and early next year, we expect to sell additional early cargos to further reduce our market exposure as we increase our visibility and the expected early LNG production and gain assurance on timing from Bechtel. We expect to utilize the cash flows associated with these early volumes to pay down a portion of the FinCo and Super FinCo loans related to our equity commitments for Trains 4 and 5.

在今年及明年年初，隨著我們對早期液化天然氣產量的可見性提高，以及從貝克特爾公司獲得時間保證，我們預計將出售更多早期貨物，以進一步降低我們的市場風險敞口。我們預計將利用這些早期交易量帶來的現金流來償還與我們對 4 號和 5 號列車的股權承諾相關的 FinCo 和 Super FinCo 貸款的一部分。

At Train 5 FID in October, we showed you that approximate approximately 3,800 TBtu of LNG production projected from 2027 through the first half of 2031 is expected to generate approximately $2 billion in NextDecade's share of Rio Grande LNG project level distributable cash flow using a $5 per MMBtu cargo margin. We are reiterating that projection today and providing an additional pricing sensitivity at a cargo margin of $3 per MMBtu for these early cargoes.

在 10 月的 5 號生產線最終投資決定 (FID) 會議上，我們向您展示了，預計從 2027 年到 2031 年上半年，LNG 產量約為 3,800 TBtu，按照每百萬英熱單位 (MMBtu) 5 美元的貨物利潤計算，NextDecade 將在 Rio Grande LNG 項目中產生約 20 億美元的現金。今天我們重申這項預測，並針對這些早期貨物，以每百萬英熱單位 3 美元的貨物利潤率提供額外的定價敏感度分析。

We believe a $3 per MMBtu cargo margin case is conservative that is roughly equivalent to the value we expect to receive under our long-term Train 4 and Train 5 SPAs, including expected fuel usage and the cost of Rio Grande LNG's gas supply relative to Henry Hub.

我們認為每百萬英熱單位貨物利潤率為 3 美元是一個保守的估計，這大致相當於我們根據長期 4 號生產線和 5 號生產線 SPA 協議預期獲得的價值，其中包括預期的燃料使用量和里奧格蘭德液化天然氣相對於亨利樞紐的天然氣供應成本。

In the $3 per MMBtu cargo margin pricing scenario, we project early LNG production will result in approximately $1.2 billion in NextDecade's share of Rio Grande LNG project level distributable cash flow from Train 1 startup through DFCD of the Train 5 SPAs in the first half of 2031. We believe there is significant amount of upside potential to these projections from a number of factors unrelated to market pricing. Some of these factors include potential additional improvements in Rio Grande LNG's construction schedule, the speed at which each train ramps up to full production, and production above nameplate capacity.

在每百萬英熱單位貨物利潤定價方案下，我們預計早期液化天然氣生產將使 NextDecade 在 2031 年上半年從 1 號生產線啟動到 5 號生產線 SPA 的 DFCD 期間，獲得 Rio Grande LNG 項目層面可分配現金流的約 12 億美元份額。我們認為，由於與市場定價無關的諸多因素，這些預測具有很大的上行潛力。這些因素包括裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣項目建設進度可能進一步改進、每條生產線達到滿載生產的速度以及超出額定產能的產量。

As we look forward to steady state operations, we are focused not only on ensuring that our trains come online safely, on budget, and on time or early, but also on reducing the variability and maximizing our cash flows and ensuring that we employ the capital discipline necessary to position ourselves for long-term success.

展望穩定運營，我們不僅致力於確保列車安全、按預算、按時或提前投入運營，還致力於減少波動性、最大限度地提高現金流，並確保我們採取必要的資本紀律，為長期成功做好準備。

Creating an optimized and strong balance sheet in the NextDecade will be paramount to our long-term success. Our initial leverage target for steady state operations after DFCD of Train 5 is the NextDecade level debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3 to 3.5 times.

在未來十年，打造優化且穩健的資產負債表對我們的長期成功至關重要。在 5 號列車 DFCD 之後，我們為穩定營運設定的初始槓桿目標是 NextDecade 水準的債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 3 至 3.5 倍。

For this metric, NextDecade level debt includes the debt of NextDecade and its subsidiaries, excluding project level debt. We believe a 3 to 3.5 times debt to adjusted EBITDA is a reasonable leverage target that is supported by our economic interest in the cash flows from Trains 1 through 5 at Rio Grande LNG.

對此指標而言，NextDecade 層級的債務包括 NextDecade 及其子公司的債務，但不包括專案層面的債務。我們認為，債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 3 至 3.5 倍是一個合理的槓桿目標，這得益於我們對 Rio Grande LNG 1 號至 5 號生產線現金流的經濟利益。

Currently, Trains 1 through 5 are approximately 85% contracted on a long-term basis, with SPAs that have a weighted average life of 19.5 years, and annual fixed fee cash flow of approximately $3 billion before escalation. This profile provides us with strong cash flow visibility and predictability on a steady state basis.

目前，1 號至 5 號列車約有 85% 已簽訂長期合同，其 SPA 的加權平均期限為 19.5 年，在價格上漲之前，每年的固定費用現金流約為 30 億美元。這種模式使我們能夠在穩定狀態下獲得強大的現金流可見度和可預測性。

We expect this leverage target will place NextDecade in a strong credit position, and we have visible paths to achieving that target at steady state operations. As we showed on the previous slide, you can expect us to utilize our share of cash flows generated from Rio Grande LNG Train 1 startup through Train 5 DFCD to pay down our FinCo and Super FinCo term balances to reduce NextDecade level debt. At steady state operations, we expect to refinance any remaining balances via opportunistic capital markets transactions.

我們預計這一槓桿目標將使 NextDecade 處於強勁的信用地位，並且我們有明確的途徑在穩定營運後實現這一目標。正如我們在上一張幻燈片中展示的那樣，您可以期待我們將利用從 Rio Grande LNG Train 1 啟動到 Train 5 DFCD 產生的現金流份額來償還我們的 FinCo 和 Super FinCo 定期餘額，以減少 NextDecade 級別的債務。在業務穩定營運後，我們預計將透過把握機會進行資本市場交易，為剩餘餘額進行再融資。

We currently estimate that if early volumes are sold at average margins consistent with our $5 per MMBtu pricing sensitivity, NextDecade level debt would be within our target range. If early volumes were sold at average margins consistent with our $3 per MMBtu pricing sensitivity, we would expect to undertake additional balance sheet optimization to reduce NextDecade level debt to within the target range.

我們目前估計，如果早期銷售的平均利潤率與我們每百萬英熱單位 5 美元的價格敏感度一致，那麼 NextDecade 的債務水準將在我們的目標範圍內。如果早期銷售的平均利潤率符合我們對每百萬英熱單位 3 美元價格敏感度的要求，我們預計會進行額外的資產負債表優化，以將 NextDecade 的債務水準降低到目標範圍內。

In this sensitivity, we would consider contracting an additional approximately 2 million tons under long-term SBAs across Trains 4 and 5. This would bring our 5-Train portfolio to approximately 90% contracted and enable us to maximize debt at the project levels, which would in turn reduce equity requirements for the NextDecade and our equity partners for Trains 4 and 5. This would reduce the amount we expect to draw on the FinCo loan to fund our remaining portion of equity for Trains 4 and 5, thereby reducing projected NextDecade level debt to within the target range.

有鑑於此，我們將考慮在 4 號和 5 號列車上簽訂長期 SBA 合同，額外增加約 200 萬噸的供應量。這將使我們的 5 列火車專案組合的合約簽訂率達到約 90%，並使我們能夠在專案層面最大限度地利用債務，從而減少 NextDecade 專案以及我們 4 號和 5 號火車專案的股權需求。這將減少我們預計從 FinCo 貸款中提取的資金，用於支付我們為 4 號和 5 號列車剩餘股權部分的金額，從而將預計的 NextDecade 水平債務降低到目標範圍內。

As we previously discussed, we entered into the Super FinCo and FinCO loans to fund to fund most of our equity commitment into Trains 4 and 5. The net proceeds from the Super FinCo loan were contributed into the projects at their respective FID dates. As we consider various options to optimize our balance sheet into steady state operations, we have flexibility in timing and approach, largely due to the advantageous terms of the FinCO loan, which we expect to use to fund our remaining equity commitments for Trains 4 and 5.

正如我們之前討論過的，我們透過 Super FinCo 和 FinCO 貸款來為我們對 4 號和 5 號列車的大部分股權承諾提供資金。Super FinCo 貸款的淨收益已在該項目各自的最終投資決定日投入到該項目中。當我們考慮各種方案以優化資產負債表，實現穩定營運時，我們在時間和方法上具有靈活性，這主要歸功於 FinCO 貸款的有利條款，我們預計將使用這筆貸款為 4 號和 5 號列車的剩餘股權承諾提供資金。

We currently do not expect to draw on the FinCO loan for multiple years, during which time we will only pay LC fees, which grants us time to continue to evaluate the market and determine the optimal balance sheet optimization approach while continuing to sell uncontracted early volumes to reduce our near-term market exposure.

我們目前預計多年內不會動用 FinCO 貸款，在此期間我們只會支付信用證費用，這使我們有時間繼續評估市場並確定最佳的資產負債表優化方法，同時繼續出售未簽訂合約的早期數量，以減少我們近期的市場風險敞口。

We are seeing strong opportunities in the market for LNG sales, both short term and long term. Near term pricing today remains above long-term pricing levels. Today, we are reaffirming our existing steady state guidance and providing an additional margin sensitivity and some market exposure sensitivities to help you better model the company and the potential impact of LNG market price fluctuations on our projected cash flows.

我們看到液化天然氣銷售市場存在著強勁的機遇，無論短期或長期。目前的短期價格仍高於長期物價水準。今天，我們重申了我們現有的穩定狀態指引，並提供了額外的利潤率敏感性和一些市場風險敞口敏感性，以幫助您更好地模擬公司以及液化天然氣市場價格波動對我們預計現金流的潛在影響。

We previously provided a $5 per MMBtu cargo margin case at Train 4 FID, which is unchanged and is reiterated in the left columns of this chart. In this scenario, we project annual NextDecade distributable cash flow of approximately $800 million after the economic interest flip in Trains 4 and 5 and approximately $500 million before the flip.

我們之前曾提供過 4 號列車最終投資決定時每百萬英熱單位貨物利潤率為 5 美元的情況，這一情況保持不變，並在本圖表的左側列中重申。在這種情況下，我們預計在列車 4 和 5 的經濟權益發生轉變後，NextDecade 的年度可分配現金流約為 8 億美元，轉變前約為 5 億美元。

In the $5 margin scenario, we estimate the economic interest flip will occur in the mid-2030s. Under this scenario, each $0.50 change in cargo margin is projected to impact NextDecade distributable cash flow by approximately $60 million post-flip and approximately $45 million pre-flip.

在 5 美元利潤率的情況下，我們估計經濟利益轉變將在 2030 年代中期發生。在這種情況下，貨物利潤每變化 0.50 美元，預計會對 NextDecade 的可分配現金流產生約 6000 萬美元的翻轉後影響，約 4500 萬美元的翻轉前影響。

We are adding the additional margin scenario today which contemplates a $3 per MMBtu cargo margin during the early volume period from Train 1 startup through DFCD of the Train 5 SPAs in the first half of 2031. This case assumes a $5 per MMBtu cargo margin during steady state operations point forward beginning in the second half of 2031. In this scenario, we assume that we would contract an additional approximately 2 million tons under long-term SPAs across Trains 4 and 5.

今天我們新增了利潤率情景，設想在 2031 年上半年，從 1 號生產線啟動到 5 號生產線 SPA 的 DFCD 期間，貨運利潤率為每百萬英熱單位 3 美元。本案例假設從 2031 年下半年開始，在穩定營運期間，每百萬英熱單位貨物利潤為 5 美元。在這種情況下，我們假設我們將透過 4 號和 5 號列車簽訂長期 SPA 協議，額外簽訂約 200 萬噸的合約。

We estimate this scenario would enable us to achieve our steady state target leverage metrics in a lower early volume margin environment. In this new sensitivity, we project approximately $500 million in the NextDecade distributable cash flow per year after the flip and approximately $400 million from Train 5 DSCD in the first half of 2031 until the flip. In this sensitivity, the timing of the flip would be delayed slightly to the mid to late 2030s due to the lower early cargo margins.

我們估計，在這種情況下，即使在早期成交量利潤率較低的環境下，我們也能實現穩態目標槓桿指標。根據這項新的敏感度分析，我們預計在專案翻轉後，NextDecade 每年可分配現金流約為 5 億美元，而 Train 5 DSCD 在 2031 年上半年至專案翻轉期間可分配現金流約為 4 億美元。在這種敏感性下，由於早期貨運利潤較低，轉型的時間可能會略微推遲到 2030 年代中後期。

There is potential upside to the timing of the flip from factors outside of market margins, including accelerated ramp up timing of the trains and higher production profiles, capital spend curves, contingency usage, and operational efficiency, among other factors. Additionally, our steady state projections include production of 309 TBtu per train per year, which is based on nameplate and does not include impacts from overdesign or debottlenecking efforts. As a result, we believe there could be meaningful potential above the scenarios we are showing here.

除了市場利潤率之外，時機轉變還可能帶來一些利好因素，包括列車加速投產、更高的生產水準、資本支出曲線、緊急資金的使用以及營運效率等。此外，我們的穩定狀態預測包括每列火車每年 309 TBtu 的產量，這是基於銘牌數據，不包括過度設計或消除瓶頸措施的影響。因此，我們認為除了我們在這裡展示的情景之外，還可能存在著巨大的潛力。

Our projected cash flows are robust across a range of market margin scenarios and are strengthened by our highly contracted approach, which we could lean further into if needed depending on the LNG pricing environment over the next few years. Thank you for joining the call today. We will now open the line up for questions.

我們預計的現金流在各種市場利潤率情景下都表現強勁，並且由於我們高度依賴合約的方式而得到加強，如果需要，我們可以根據未來幾年的液化天然氣定價環境進一步加強這種方式。感謝您今天參加電話會議。現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

（操作說明）Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and thanks for all the detail on the forward guidance.

早安.感謝您解答我的問題，也感謝您提供的所有前瞻性指導細節。

I guess I want to start, with the events that happened over the weekend and I understand it's still just a couple days since the operation started over there, but how do you think that's going to influence your competitive position in the marketplace and the ability to attract volumes to support future trends?

我想先談談週末發生的事情，我知道那邊的行動才開始幾天，但您認為這會對貴公司在市場上的競爭地位以及吸引銷量以支持未來趨勢的能力產生怎樣的影響？

Yeah, thanks for the question and good morning to you. First, let me send my condolences to the families of the US soldiers who've been killed or injured. I'd also like to send my condolences to the civilians who've been killed or injured by the Iranian rocket and drone attacks on our allies in the region.

是的，謝謝你的提問，早安。首先，請容許我向陣亡或受傷的美國士兵家屬表示慰問。我還要向在伊朗火箭和無人機攻擊中喪生或受傷的該地區盟友平民表示慰問。

The short-term impact of this war is that nearly 20% of the global supply of LNG will be disrupted, likely causing prices to rise, which I think we've already seen this morning. The longer-term impact of the world depends on how long it lasts and the extent of the damage -- any damage to LNG infrastructure in the region, and we've all heard the rumors that Ras Laffan was attacked by drones. We haven't gotten that confirmed yet.

這場戰爭的短期影響是，全球近 20% 的液化天然氣供應將受到干擾，這可能會導致價格上漲，我認為我們今天早上已經看到了這種情況。對世界的長期影響取決於其持續時間和破壞程度——該地區液化天然氣基礎設施的任何破壞，我們都聽說過拉斯拉凡遭到無人機襲擊的傳聞。我們尚未得到證實。

As we said in our comments, the market is already still, relatively, I mean, strong, all things considered, especially for the period of time that we're focused on for Trains 6 through 8, which is kind of the 2032, '33 and beyond time frame. Clearly, I think the situation that we've seen develop over the weekend reaffirms what we've said about our guidance and especially about this period of time between '26 and 2030 as new LNG is coming to the market. We still have the slide in our deck about this wave and the fact that from an amplitude perspective, it is definitely not the same as the waves we've seen in the past and that any relatively small disruption could balance the market rather quickly.

正如我們在評論中所說，考慮到所有因素，市場仍然相對強勁，特別是考慮到我們關注的 6 號至 8 號列車的時間段，也就是 2032 年、2033 年及以後的時間範圍。顯然，我認為我們在周末看到的情況再次印證了我們先前對指導意見的表態，尤其是在 2026 年至 2030 年這段時間，因為新的液化天然氣即將進入市場。我們的簡報中仍然保留著關於這一波的幻燈片，從振幅的角度來看，它肯定與我們過去看到的波浪不同，任何相對較小的擾動都可能很快平衡市場。

And of course, when you lose 20% of the supply of LNG into the market, most of that going into Asia, it's going to have major ramifications, especially in the short term. How long that lasts is to be seen.

當然，當市場上 20% 的液化天然氣供應減少時，其中大部分流向亞洲，這將產生重大影響，尤其是在短期內。這種情況能持續多久，還有待觀察。

Got it. Great, thanks for that. I want to follow up just on the potential for early volumes above what you've guided. It seems like construction is tracking better than what you've contemplated in the plan, but you didn't raise your volume guidance for volumes that will come on prior to the middle of 2031. So as things sit today, just what is kind of the upside you're looking at from early volumes, particularly from Train 1, which seems like it's going to come on a bit earlier than what you expected?

知道了。太好了，謝謝。我想就早期銷售量可能超過您之前預測的幅度進行後續跟進。看起來施工進度比你計劃中設想的要好，但是你沒有提高 2031 年年中之前即將投入使用的工程量預期。就目前情況來看，你認為早期幾卷，特別是第一卷（似乎比你預期的要早一些發行），有哪些利好因素？

Yeah, what we've said is that as this year progresses -- and we get more assurances from Bechtel -- we will update the market as to those early volumes, especially when Train 1's going to start, how much more volume we may be able to produce out of this trains relative to the guidance we've already given between Train 1 startup and Train 5 DFCD.

是的，我們已經說過，隨著今年的進展——以及我們從貝克特爾公司獲得更多保證——我們將向市場更新早期產量信息，特別是當 1 號列車開始運行時，相對於我們之前在 1 號列車啟動和 5 號列車 DFCD 之間給出的指導，我們能夠從這些列車中生產多少額外的產量。

Longer term, the ability to get more volume out of the trains due to the hydraulic capacity, potential debottlenecking, we're not really prepared to get into that until we operate the facility for a while. I think we have a more conservative approach to this. Clearly, when these facilities are designed and built, they're built with more hydraulic capacity than what we permit. But you don't really know exactly how much of that you can utilize until you start operating because you have to contend with several dynamic things including the specification of the gas, the ambient temperature, et cetera.

從長遠來看，由於液壓能力的提升，列車能夠運力更大，潛在的瓶頸問題也能解決。不過，在設施運作一段時間之前，我們還沒有做好充分的準備來探討這個問題。我認為我們對此採取了更保守的做法。顯然，這些設施在設計和建造時，其液壓容量都超過了我們允許的容量。但是，在開始操作之前，你無法確切地知道你可以利用多少，因為你必須應對幾個動態因素，包括氣體的規格、環境溫度等等。

So I feel pretty comfortable that next year, as we begin operating Train 1, we'll get a better feeling about how much capacity -- each of these trains they're all exactly the same, how much they could potentially produce. So next year, I would expect us to be able to provide the market with additional guidance on how much more volume we could produce in steady state. Thank you for the question.

因此，我相當有信心，明年當我們開始運行 1 號列車時，我們會更好地了解每列列車的產能——它們都完全相同——它們的潛在產量是多少。因此，我預計明年我們將能夠向市場提供更多指導，說明我們在穩定狀態下可以增加多少產量。謝謝你的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Sunil Sabal, Seaport Global Securities.

（操作員指示）Sunil Sabal，Seaport Global Securities。

Yeah, hi, good morning, and thanks for all the new information on the slide deck. I was kind of curious, it seems like your decisions and your decision in terms of contracting more capacity on Trains 4 and 5 is largely driven by the early volume margins, right? So obviously, with the events we've seen in the last few hours, seems like the spreads are moving up. So I was kind of curious if we could talk about your decision point in light of recent developments and see from a time frame perspective, when do you think you will have a better sense of that contracting decision.

是的，你好，早上好，感謝你提供的幻燈片中的所有新資訊。我有點好奇，看起來你們的決定，以及你們在4號和5號列車上增加運力的決定，很大程度上都是由早期的貨運量利潤率驅動的，對嗎？顯然，從過去幾個小時發生的事情來看，價差似乎正在擴大。所以我很好奇，鑑於最近的事態發展，我們能否談談您的決策點，並從時間框架的角度看看，您認為您什麼時候才能更好地確定合約決定。

Yeah, thank you for the question. Contracting a higher percentage of Trains 4 and 5 is an option that we will consider as we continue to monitor the market.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我們將持續關注市場動態，並考慮增加 4 號和 5 號列車的承運比例。

What we've said is in a lower margin early volume scenario, we estimate the contracting of additional capacity in Trains 4 and 5 will enable us to maximize the debt at project level and reduce equity requirements for Trains 4 and 5, which in turn, would reduce the amount we expect to draw on the FinCo loan for our Trains 4 and 5 equity and help us achieve a target corporate level leverage of 3 to 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA.

我們先前說過，在利潤率較低的早期產量情境下，我們估計4號和5號生產線額外產能的合約簽訂將使我們能夠最大限度地利用專案層面的債務，並減少4號和5號生產線的股權需求，這反過來將減少我們預計從FinCo貸款中提取的用於4號和5號生產線股權的金額，並幫助我們實現我們預計從FinCo貸款中提取的用於4號和5號生產線股權的金額，並幫助我們實現3至3.5後槓桿率。

At the same time, as you point out, we see continued strength in the market and obviously with the this past weekend additional strength in the short-term market. And so that call on LNG, it is still there in the short term and as we said into the 2030s. So we want to remain flexible and the determination as to when we decide to contract will be based largely on how things go over the course of the next year or two.

同時，正如你所指出的，我們看到市場持續走強，而且很明顯，上週末短期市場又進一步走強。因此，對液化天然氣的需求在短期內仍然存在，正如我們所說，這種需求會持續到 2030 年代。因此，我們希望保持靈活性，何時決定簽訂合約將主要取決於未來一兩年內事態的發展。

We have plenty of time to do this. We are planning to draw on the FinCo loan for Train 1 for at least 2.5 years or so. And so it really doesn't do us much good to do anything early. We want to play this option out. It has a trigger date that's many, many, many months in the future, and so we'll see what happens between now and then.

我們有充足的時間來完成這項工作。我們計劃至少在2.5年左右的時間裡使用FinCo貸款來建造1號列車。所以，過早採取任何行動對我們其實都沒有好處。我們想嘗試這個方案。它的觸發日期還有好幾個月的時間，所以我們將看看從現在到那時會發生什麼。

Matt, if I could just add. We talked about where our focus is and clearly, progressing Train 6 through 8 is a major focus of ours. Our focus will be on commercializing Train 6 in the immediate future. We estimate Train 6 can be very creative and generate a great deal of additional distributable cash flow on a per share basis in a wide range of financing scenarios.

馬特，如果我可以補充一下的話。我們討論了我們的重點在哪裡，很顯然，推進 6 號至 8 號列車的建設是我們的主要重點。近期，我們的重點將放在6號列車的商業化。我們估計 Train 6 可以非常有創意，在各種融資情況下，每股都能產生大量的額外可分配現金流。

So as Matt said, it's a balancing act. We have lots of options. It's always good to have options. In this scenario, I think we've set ourselves up to enable ourselves to work the commercial side of the business while maintaining that focus on our capital structure and a strong balance sheet that we need as we move forward into the 2030s.

正如馬特所說，這是一種平衡之道。我們有很多選擇。多一些選擇總是好事。在這種情況下，我認為我們已經做好準備，能夠在開展業務的商業方面的同時，保持對資本結構和強勁資產負債表的關注，這是我們邁向 2030 年代所必需的。

Yeah, one other thing I'll add, Mike -- and thanks for adding that -- is that in the scenario where we assume we've sold an additional 2 million tons between Train 4 and 5, we're also using current long-term LNG pricing consistent with our Train 4 and 5 pricing.

是的，麥克，我還要補充一點——感謝你的補充——那就是，假設我們在 4 號和 5 號生產線之間額外售出了 200 萬噸，我們也採用了與 4 號和 5 號生產線定價一致的當前長期液化天然氣定價。

2.5 plus years into the future, pricing could be much stronger depending on what happens in the market. So again, we're trying to be transparent, provide the market with additional information on potential scenarios, but at the same time, remaining conservative on our estimates even when it comes to long-term LNG contracting in the future.

兩年半以後，價格可能會更堅挺，這取決於市場的發展。因此，我們再次努力做到透明，向市場提供有關潛在情景的更多信息，但同時，即使在未來長期液化天然氣合約方面，我們也保持保守的估計。

Okay. So just one clarification. So are you suggesting that the 2 MTPA additional contracting is also primarily driven with an eye on overall balance sheet and leverage, especially when you think about Trains 6 to 8?

好的。還有一個問題需要澄清。所以你的意思是，新增的 200 萬噸/年合約主要也是出於對整體資產負債表和槓桿率的考慮，特別是考慮到 6 號至 8 號列車專案？

What I would say, it really doesn't have much to do with Trains 6 through 8. It has to do with a certain amount of leverage that we feel would be appropriate at the NextDecade level in order to maintain flexibility at NextDecade and provide us the underpinnings of a stable foundation to survive any sort of commodity cycle up or down.

我想說的是，這其實跟6號到8號列車沒什麼關係。這與我們認為在 NextDecade 層面上適當的槓桿水平有關，以便保持 NextDecade 的靈活性，並為我們提供一個穩定的基礎，以應對任何類型的商品週期漲跌。

The important thing here to note is that we don't have to do anything for that Train 4 and 5 excess cargos -- or excuse me, incremental long-term cargos -- until probably 2.5 years into the future. If prices scream up and there's plenty of demand for Train 6 and an incremental million tons from Train 4 and 5, we'll consider that opportunistically. But to your earlier point, this does potentially lower the amount of cash flow that we can generate because we're contracting 2 million more tons at a lower price than that $5 steady state long-term market view. But at the same time, if we do do it, it provides guaranteed cash flows for another 2 million tons, thereby decreasing our market exposure.

這裡需要注意的重要一點是，我們不必對 4 號和 5 號列車的超額貨物（或抱歉，是長期增量貨物）採取任何行動，可能要等到 2.5 年以後。如果價格飆升，對 6 號列車的需求量很大，加上 4 號和 5 號列車額外提供的 100 萬噸產量，我們將考慮抓住這個機會。但正如你之前所說，這確實可能會降低我們能夠產生的現金流，因為我們以低於 5 美元的長期穩定市場價格簽訂了 200 萬噸的額外合約。但同時，如果我們這樣做，就能為另外 200 萬噸產品提供有保障的現金流，從而降低我們的市場風險敞口。

So my expectation is that if we did do this in the future, we should get a higher multiple for that contracted cash flow. If we don't do it, it's because the market has remained very strong and the value of those -- that volume uncontracted, at least, during this period of time has increased in value and we want to hold on to it a little bit longer.

因此，我的預期是，如果我們將來這樣做，我們應該可以獲得更高的合約現金流倍數。如果我們不這樣做，那是因為市場仍然非常強勁，而且這些未成交的合約（至少在這段時間內）的價值已經增加，我們希望再持有一段時間。

I said before we aren't planning to just hold this stuff forever. We will opportunistically contract it out most likely if we don't do a two-year contract in the future under shorter-term contracts where we will -- we can achieve greater margins than a 20-year contract. We're just pointing out for our shareholders that we're thinking about this completely and that if this market, is a in the shorter term, a lower margin market and we don't get the full $2 billion of cash flow we expect to get from Train 1 startup to Train 5 DFCD, we have options to ensure that our balance sheets stay strong that are unrelated to commodity pricing.

我之前說過，我們並不打算永遠保留這些東西。如果我們將來不簽訂兩年期合約，我們很可能會抓住機會將其外包，簽訂短期合約——這樣我們就能獲得比 20 年期合約更高的利潤。我們只是想向股東指出，我們正在全面考慮這個問題。如果短期內這個市場利潤率較低，而我們無法從第一期專案啟動到第五期DFCD專案獲得預期的20億美元現金流，我們還有其他與大宗商品價格無關的方案來確保我們的資產負債表保持穩健。

The last thing I'll mention and reiterate is that there are other upsides for us other than commodity pricing. We could produce a lot more volume in this early period generating additional cash flow subject to where the margins end up. We can also end up filling the project at a lower cost, in other words, not utilize all of our contingency. And clearly, as we mentioned earlier, there is the potential for us even in a steady state environment, producing more volume out of these trains due to the hydraulic capacity versus nameplate.

最後我想再次強調的是，除了商品價格之外，我們還有其他利多因素。在初期階段，我們可以生產更多的產品，從而產生額外的現金流，但這取決於最終的利潤率是多少。換句話說，我們最終也可以以較低的成本完成項目，也就是說，不必動用所有的應急資金。顯然，正如我們之前提到的，即使在穩定的環境下，由於液壓能力與銘牌相比，我們也有潛力從這些列車中生產更多的產量。

Okay, no, thanks for that comprehensive answer. My second question was related to the contracting environment. Obviously, you finalized Train 5 contracts in the fourth quarter. How would you characterize the market currently versus when you finalize on the Train 5 contracts in terms of SPA pricing?

好的，不用了，謝謝你這麼詳細的解答。我的第二個問題與承包環境有關。顯然，你們在第四季完成了第五期列車的合約。就SPA定價而言，您如何描述當前市場狀況與最終敲定Train 5合約時的市場狀況？

Yeah, look, we've been in the market talking to potential customers for Train 6, and we're seeing continued strong demand for incremental LNG supply in the 2030s and beyond. And while there's been this debate recently about the short-term market dynamics which obviously somewhat changed over the weekend, market participants that we've talked to are almost unanimous in their view that the world needs more LNG in the 2030s, driven by continued growth in global natural gas demand and expected declines in production from legacy gas and LNG.

是的，你看，我們一直在市場上與第六條生產線的潛在客戶洽談，我們看到2030年代及以後對新增液化天然氣供應的需求持續強勁。儘管最近關於短期市場動態的爭論一直存在，而且週末期間市場動態顯然發生了一些變化，但我們採訪過的市場參與者幾乎一致認為，在 2030 年代，世界需要更多的液化天然氣，這是由於全球天然氣需求的持續增長以及傳統天然氣和液化天然氣產量的預期下降所致。

The long-term contracting market remains robust and we expect prices for Train 6 in the same range if not better as -- and then Train 5. So it's looking really, really good right now.

長期合約市場仍然強勁，我們預計第 6 列火車的價格將與第 5 列火車的價格持平，甚至可能更好。所以現在看來情況真的非常好。

Wade Suki, Capital One.

Wade Suki，Capital One。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for taking my questions. Just real quickly, if you don't mind. Looking at some of the sensitivities here, the 3 and the 5 steady state, I'm wondering if you can kind of give us a sense if we were in a $3 flat environment, so [$3 and $3] essentially, $3 steady state in terms of maybe sensitivities, kind of DCF sensitivities, and then free and post flip timing kind of Trains 4 and 5.

各位早安。感謝各位回答我的問題。就簡單說一句，如果你不介意的話。從這裡的一些敏感性來看，3 和 5 的穩定狀態，我想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於在 3 美元的平穩環境下，也就是 [3 美元和 3 美元] 基本上，3 美元的穩定狀態，就敏感性而言，有點像 DCF 敏感性，然後是 4 號和 5 號列車的自由和翻轉後時間。

Yeah, so we didn't provide a 3 and 3 case clearly, and that's because we think it's somewhat illogical to assume that the long-term price over 20 years is going to be effectively equivalent to the long-term price for a 20-year contract.

是的，所以我們沒有明確地提供 3 和 3 的情況，那是因為我們認為假設 20 年的長期價格與 20 年合約的長期價格實際上等同，這在某種程度上是不合邏輯的。

When you think about it -- and I know that there are other companies that may be using something closer to $3 for their long-term guidance range -- I'm not saying that we don't look at that from a standpoint of sanctioning projects, but. the reality is we have customers that are buying this from us long-term at prices that are effectively equivalent to that and they're selling it at positive margins.

仔細想想——我知道其他公司可能會把長期指導價定在接近 3 美元的水平——我並不是說我們從批准項目的角度來看不考慮這個價格，但現實情況是，我們的客戶長期以與此價格相當的價格從我們這裡購買產品，並且他們以正利潤率出售。

So we didn't provide that guidance. I don't expect to provide the guidance. That said, we knew it was important for you to see sensitivities around this. So if you want to do a hypothetical, I think we provided the sensitivity on a $0.50 per MMBtu basis impact from the $3, $5 case. I think that -- Megan, you can check me on this, but I think that if you multiply the sensitivity in the $3 to $5 case on the pre-fit flip and post-flip basis, you generally get an idea of what a 3 and 3 would look like, so you'd have to multiply it by 4. Like, $80 million I believe in one of the cases, but it's not an exact science.

所以我們沒有提供這方面的指導。我並不打算提供指導。話雖如此，我們也知道讓您了解這方面的敏感度很重要。所以，如果你想做一個假設，我認為我們已經提供了每百萬英熱單位 (MMBtu) 0.50 美元的影響的敏感性分析，分別對應 3 美元和 5 美元的情況。我覺得——梅根，你可以幫我確認一下，但我覺得，如果你把 3 美元到 5 美元情況下的靈敏度乘以調整前翻轉和調整後翻轉的數值，你通常就能知道 3 和 3 會是什麼樣子，所以你必須把它乘以 4。例如，我記得其中一個案子涉及 8000 萬美元，但這並非精確的科學。

No, understood. I appreciate the color that it's great. But just thinking in terms of like corporate level return, let's call it, in the 3 and 5 scenario. How do you all think about unlevered return on capital, however you're thinking about the corporate level returns?

不，明白了。我很喜歡這個顏色，它很棒。但就公司層面的回報而言，我們姑且稱之為 3 和 5 的情況。無論你們如何看待公司層面的回報，你們都如何看待無槓桿資本報酬率？

So we look at the returns on the project level, they're very, very robust, especially Train 4 and 5, but combined, Trains 1 through 5 have resulted in extremely good returns for us and our partners. We haven't disclosed the actual metrics in that, but I can assure you that Trains 4 and 5 were probably some of the best returns in the industry last year, and that's based on our cost structure as well as the prices that we sold the long-term LNG for.

因此，我們從專案層面來看，回報非常非常穩健，尤其是第 4 列和第 5 列火車，但總的來說，第 1 列到第 5 列火車為我們和我們的合作夥伴帶來了非常好的回報。我們沒有公開具體的指標，但我可以向你保證，4 號和 5 號生產線去年的回報率可能是業內最高的，這是基於我們的成本結構以及我們出售長期液化天然氣的價格得出的結論。

We would expect Train 6, depending on ultimate EPC costs, financing costs, and where we end up selling the LNG to have similar types of returns, which would be extremely accretive to our shareholders under various ranges of how we would finance it.

我們預計，根據最終的EPC成本、融資成本以及我們最終銷售液化天然氣的地點，第六條生產線將獲得類似的收益，無論我們採用何種融資方式，都將大大增加我們股東的收益。

Great, thank you. I guess one last one if I could squeeze it in. But if I'm hearing you right on the financing on the Super FinCo Loans, ultimately, could that financing -- could that look different in -- whatever, two, three years' time when you actually start drawing on that?

太好了，謝謝。如果時間允許的話，我想再補充最後一個。但如果我理解正確的話，關於 Super FinCo Loans 的融資，最終，這種融資——或者說，在兩三年後，當你真正開始動用這筆資金時，它看起來會不會有所不同？

I'm not sure I fully understood the question, Wade. What do you mean?

韋德，我不太確定我是否完全理解了你的問題。你是什​​麼意思？

I'm just thinking about how you're financing equity portions for Trains 4 and 5. Just wondering if the ultimate financing might look -- could look materially different than what is out there kind of today with the -- I guess what 12%, 13% rate kind of flow down.

我只是在想你們是如何為 4 號和 5 號列車的股權部分融資的。我只是想知道最終的融資方式是否會與目前市場上的融資方式有很大不同，例如——我猜利率會降到 12% 或 13%。

I think what we've said is that -- yeah, what we've said is that because of the low cost structure of the FinCo, include that with the Super FinCo and how we would expect to draw on that debt, yes, the expected cost of that capital probably waits out to about 9%. If we get into a low commodity price environment and we decide to exercise our option and sell more LNG in Train 4 and 5, thereby maximizing the debt at 4 and 5 and reducing the equity commitments, that would have a direct impact on the FinCo draw. We wouldn't draw all of it or potentially any of it, which theoretically increases the cost of the loans that we took on, but it would also have the amount of equity that we'd have to provide.

我認為我們已經說過——是的，我們已經說過，由於 FinCo 的成本結構較低，再加上 Super FinCo 以及我們預期如何利用這些債務，是的，該資本的預期成本可能要等到 9% 左右。如果大宗商品價格處於低位，我們決定行使選擇權，在 4 號和 5 號生產線出售更多液化天然氣，從而最大限度地增加 4 號和 5 號生產線的債務，並減少股權承諾，這將對 FinCo 的提款產生直接影響。我們不會提取全部或任何資金，這在理論上會增加我們所承擔貸款的成本，但同時也會有我們必須提供的股權金額。

So you end up probably in a better place theoretically from a cost perspective, but it's how you value the cost of that equity, I guess. So there are some scenarios here, but I think the way the market should look at it right now is that we're not really changing our guidance. We're not expecting that we're going to go into -- that we're going to sell more LNG out of Train 4 and 5 as an option for us. We'll determine whether or not we're going to do that over the coming years. I would still focus on the 9% cost and expect that we're going to draw down that FinCo debt over the course of the next several years as we build out Train 4 and 5.

所以從成本角度來看，理論上你最終可能會處於更有利的地位，但我想，這取決於你如何評估股權的成本。所以這裡存在一些可能性，但我認為市場目前應該這樣看待：我們並沒有真正改變我們的業績指引。我們並不指望——我們不會把從 4 號和 5 號生產線銷售更多液化天然氣作為我們的選擇。我們將在未來幾年內決定是否要這樣做。我仍然會關注 9% 的成本，並預計在未來幾年內，隨著 4 號和 5 號列車的建設，我們將逐步減少 FinCo 的債務。

Great, that's good color. Thank you again. Appreciate it.

太好了，顏色真好看。再次感謝。謝謝。

Craig Shere, Tuohy Brothers.

克雷格·謝爾，圖伊兄弟。

Hi. So just kind of some macro thoughts and implications on your T6 to T8 development. There's been a lot of expectations that the US FID parade may be largely coming to a halt over the next, I don't know, two, three-plus quarters or so with some exceptions.

你好。所以，這裡想談談一些關於T6到T8發展的一些宏觀思考和影響。許多人預期，在接下來的兩到三個季度甚至更長時間內，美國國際消費品展覽會（FID）可能會基本上停止，當然也會有一些例外。

If that happened and EPC costs notably fell over the next five-plus years, do you see that providing a meaningful tailwind for Train 6 to 8 development? And kind of feeding into that, I guess as competition ultimately heats up in a larger market, do you see greenfield just at some point being permanently priced out of the market?

如果這種情況發生，並且未來五年多的時間裡EPC成本顯著下降，您認為這會對6號至8號列車的開發提供實質性的推動作用嗎？而且，隨著市場競爭在大市場中愈演愈烈，你認為綠地開發專案最終是否會因為價格過高而永久擠出市場？

So thanks for the question, Craig. First, I think we already have very strong tailwinds for Trains 6 and 7 and 8. But I think what you're alluding to is the fact that Train 6 and really, to some extent, 7 and 8, Train 6 is definitely brown field. It is inside the levee. It was contemplated to originally be there. The only thing we're doing incrementally that we weren't planning to do is adding another berth, which is only going to help add flexibility to all the trains.

謝謝你的提問，克雷格。首先，我認為 6 號、7 號和 8 號列車已經擁有非常強烈的順風。但我認為你指的是 6 號列車，實際上在某種程度上還有 7 號和 8 號列車，6 號列車肯定是棕地。它在堤壩內。它原本就計劃放在那裡。我們唯一逐步推進且原本不在計劃之內的事情是增加了一個泊位，這只會增加所有列車的靈活性。

This should be the lowest cost train that is going to be built, I think, in the United States, under an EPC contract that would be guaranteed. A lot of folks build their LNG facilities differently and don't necessarily have them wrapped. We think at the end of the day, wrapping the EPC is the most cost-effective way of building it, and I think our current track record and how construction is going and how we're tracking as far as cost reflects that.

我認為，這將是美國建造成本最低的列車，而且是根據有保障的EPC合約建造的。很多人建造液化天然氣設施的方式不同，不一定需要包裹。我們認為，歸根結底，採用EPC模式是最具成本效益的建造方式，而且我認為我們目前的業績記錄、施工進度以及成本控制情況都反映了這一點。

If EPC costs come down, obviously, that would be very, very beneficial not just to us but to other projects. I don't foresee that right now. I don't see the cost of equipment coming down. I don't see labor cost decreasing at this time. As we've said in the past, a lot of the equipment that is utilized for LNG, some of it's also very common with the power generation business. The turbines used for compression, the houses, transformers, et cetera, and the like, are not decreasing right now. There's still a lot of demand for these.

如果EPC成本下降，顯然不僅對我們，而且對其他項目都將非常有利。我目前還看不到這種情況。我不認為設備成本會下降。我認為目前勞動成本不會下降。正如我們過去所說，許多用於液化天然氣的設備，其中一些在發電行業也很常見。用於壓縮的渦輪機、房屋、變壓器等等，目前並沒有減少。這些產品仍然有許多需求。

So I think that we're in a really good position competitively, especially for Train 6 and also for 7 and 8. Because of the brownfield nature, it's going to be very, very competitive, as I said earlier, with one of the questions result in what we believe are outstanding returns for us and our shareholders.

所以我認為我們在競爭中處於非常有利的地位，特別是對於第 6 列火車，以及第 7 列和第 8 列火車。正如我之前所說，由於該項目屬於棕地開發，競爭將會非常非常激烈，其中一個問題的結果，我們相信將為我們和我們的股東帶來卓越的回報。

I think that's really the long and short of it, Craig. I think it's -- a lot of the tailwinds are already there. If prices come down, that would be great for us. That'd probably benefit our competitors as well, but I hear you on the greenfield. Greenfield is very, very hard to get off the ground.

克雷格，我想事情的來龍去脈就是這樣了。我認為——很多有利因素已經存在了。如果價格下降，對我們來說就太好了。那可能也會讓我們的競爭對手受益，但我明白你說的在綠地開發方面的問題。綠地開發非常非常困難。

If you don't have a lot of expansion capacity, I think it's going to be very challenging for you to achieve returns. They're going to be interesting for equity investors, as you probably will see with some of the projects that are hoping to get that idea. That's not to say they won't. But I think the smaller you are and the less upside options you have as far as expanding, the more challenging it's going to be for you.

如果你沒有足夠的擴張能力，我認為你很難獲得回報。對於股權投資者來說，它們將會很有吸引力，你可能會在一些希望獲得這種投資機會的專案中看到這一點。但這並不意味著他們不會這樣做。但我認為，公司規模越小，擴張空間越小，面臨的挑戰就越大。

Thanks for that. And the dislocations in the market obviously from this weekend's events, work and no one knows what will happen with work, what -- hopefully there will be fewer lives lost, hopefully, everything will come to a swift conclusion, but we don't know if major equipment will be impacted. We don't know how long things will be down. We don't know what construction schedules and new capacity will be impacted. And so in light of that, if you don't have immediately available production to sell in the market today, but at what point as Train 1 starts commissioning do you feel comfortable seizing the day if you have some outsized opportunities?

謝謝。顯然，本週末的事件導致市場出現混亂，工作也受到影響，沒有人知道工作會發生什麼變化——希望不會有太多人喪生，希望一切都能迅速結束，但我們不知道主要設備是否會受到影響。我們不知道停電會持續多久。我們不知道施工進度和新增產能會受到哪些影響。因此，有鑑於此，如果您目前沒有可供銷售的產品，但隨著第一期工程開始投產，當您遇到一些絕佳的機會時，您會在什麼時候感到安心，抓住時機？

Yeah, as we -- and I'll let Mike chime in here. As we've already disclosed, we have seized the day to some extent by selling a portion of the projected early cargo volumes from Train 1 startup to Train 5 DFCD. Clearly, we haven't sold the majority of it yet. And as we've guided to and you've mentioned many times before in some of your previous questions on other calls, there's a lot of potential upside here if we deliver the project even earlier than we've currently projected, which is not out of the question.

是的，正如我們——我讓麥克插一句吧。正如我們已經披露的那樣，我們已在一定程度上把握住了時機，將 1 號列車啟動初期預計的貨運量的一部分出售給了 5 號列車 DFCD。顯然，我們還沒有賣出大部分。正如我們之前所引導的，也是您在之前其他電話會議的一些問題中多次提到的，如果我們能夠比目前預計的更早地交付項目，那麼這裡將有很多潛在的收益，這並非不可能。

We'll guide more to that later this year. Those are the catalysts, I think, people should be focused on. We will be starting commissioning this year. We will start introducing hydrocarbons of facility and start the warm side of the facility. We expect to start producing LNG next year. And as we get closer, we'll give the exact dates.

今年晚些時候，我們會就此提供更多指導。我認為，這些才是人們應該關注的催化劑。我們將於今年開始調試工作。我們將開始引入該裝置的碳氫化合物，並啟動裝置的溫控部分。我們預計明年將開始生產液化天然氣。隨著日期臨近，我們會公佈確切日期。

As we get more and more confident and we get more assurances from Bechtel, should LNG prices remain strong or get stronger, in '27, '28, '29, rest assured that we will start to pare more of this volume down. And again, we could end up with producing a lot more than expected, so that that could work to our benefit.

隨著我們信心的增強以及從貝克特爾公司獲得更多保證，如果液化天然氣價格在 2027 年、2028 年、2029 年保持強勁或進一步走強，請放心，我們將開始進一步減少這一數量。而且，我們最終的產量可能會比預期的多得多，這對我們有利。

And obviously, all these things have an impact on whether or not we utilize the options available to us to maintain the strong balance sheet including the additional contracting that we could do in Train 4 and 5, which again, we are not saying today you should expect that to happen. We're explaining that that's an option to us. But we're going to maintain that optionality because the strike date on that is many, many months, if not, years in the future. And we want to see how things play out.

顯然，所有這些因素都會影響我們是否利用現有選項來維持強勁的資產負債表，包括我們可以在 4 號和 5 號列車上進行的額外合同，但我們今天並不是說你應該期待這種情況發生。我們正在解釋說，這對我們來說也是一個選擇。但我們將保留這種選擇權，因為該選擇權的生效日期還有好幾個月，甚至好幾年。我們想看看事情會如何發展。

I'll reiterate what I said earlier, and I would again focus people on the slide in our deck that shows that this wave is different. Yes, prices softened pretty dramatically over the past quarter, into the '26 to '30 time frame. But as we said, it doesn't take much to balance this market. This is not as big a wave as people think because the underlying market has grown dramatically, and it -- a supply disruption of the magnitude that we're now seeing is not what I was talking about. I was talking about 10 million to 15 million tons, not 20% of the existing market.

我重申我之前說過的話，我再次想讓大家關注我們簡報中的那張投影片，它顯示這一波浪潮有所不同。是的，過去一個季度，價格大幅走軟，從 2026 年到 2030 年這段時間開始走軟。但正如我們所說，要平衡這個市場並不需要太多東西。這波衝擊並沒有人們想像的那麼大，因為基礎市場已經大幅成長，而且──我們現在看到的這種規模的供應中斷並不是我所說的。我指的是 1000 萬到 1500 萬噸，而不是現有市場的 20%。

How long this situation lasts will be critical in determining what impact it's going to have on pricing long term. Much of this LNG goes to our customers in Asia. A lot of US LNG, as you know, has made its way to Europe. If the supply chain for LNG changes dramatically and more LNG has from the US has to go to Asia, that will tighten the shipping market. And that will obviously have ramifications on pricing in Europe, which I think we've already seen a pretty substantial spike in the short term there today.

這種情況持續多久，對於確定它將對長期價格產生何種影響至關重要。這些液化天然氣大部分都銷往我們在亞洲的客戶。如你所知，大量的美國液化天然氣已經運往歐洲。如果液化天然氣供應鏈發生巨大變化，美國更多的液化天然氣必須運往亞洲，這將導致航運市場供應緊張。這顯然會對歐洲的定價產生影響，我認為我們今天已經看到歐洲的定價在短期內出現了相當大的上漲。

There are no more further questions at this time. That will conclude our call today. Thank you for joining and thank you for your interest in NextDecade.

目前沒有其他問題了。今天的通話就到此結束。感謝您的參與，也感謝您對NextDecade的關注。