挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. My name is Jonathan and I will be your operator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to your host, Ms. Andrea DeMarco, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Corporate Communications and ESG. Ms. DeMarco, please proceed.

早上好，歡迎參加挪威郵輪控股公司 2020 年第一季度電話會議。我的名字是喬納森，我將成為你的接線員。 （操作員說明）作為對所有參與者的提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。我現在想將電話會議轉交給您的主持人，投資者關係、企業傳播和 ESG 高級副總裁 Andrea DeMarco 女士。 DeMarco 女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2020 earnings call. In the past, we have hosted our earnings calls from various locations, including London, the New York Stock Exchange and even onboard our vessels. Never have we hosted a call with our entire team scattered in different locations. It's one of the many ways we're adopting to the new environment, so I ask that you bear with us as we find our sea legs on our first socially distanced earnings call.

謝謝喬納森，大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議。過去，我們曾在倫敦、紐約證券交易所甚至我們的船上等不同地點舉辦過收益電話會議。我們從未與分散在不同地點的整個團隊一起主持過電話會議。這是我們為適應新環境而採用的眾多方式之一，所以我請求您在我們第一次與社會保持距離的財報電話會議上找到我們的海腳時，請多多包涵。

I'm therefore joined virtually today by Frank Del Rio, President and Chief Executive Officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Frank will begin the call with opening commentary, after which Mark will follow to discuss results for the quarter before handing the call back to Frank for closing remarks. We will then open the call for your questions.

因此，今天挪威郵輪控股公司總裁兼首席執行官弗蘭克德爾里奧（Frank Del Rio）實際上加入了我的行列；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Kempa。弗蘭克將以開場評論開始電話會議，之後馬克將隨後討論本季度的結果，然後將電話交回弗蘭克以進行結束髮言。然後，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website at www.nclhltdinvestor.com. We will also make reference to a slide presentation during this call, which may also be found on our Investor Relations website. Both the conference call and presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call.

提醒一下，本次電話會議同時在公司的投資者關係網站 www.nclhltdinvestor.com 上進行網絡直播。我們還將在本次電話會議期間參考幻燈片演示，該幻燈片也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。電話會議和演示文稿都將在今天電話會議後的 30 天內進行重播。

Before we discuss our results, I'd like to just cover a few items. Our press release's first quarter 2020 results was issued this morning and is available on our Investor Relations website. This call also includes forward-looking statements that may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

在我們討論我們的結果之前，我想只介紹幾個項目。我們的新聞稿今天上午發布了 2020 年第一季度業績，可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。本次電話會議還包括可能涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些聲明應與我們收益發布中包含的警示聲明一起考慮。

Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation.

我們的評論也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬包含在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Del Rio. Frank?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給弗蘭克德爾里奧。坦率？

Thank you, Andrea, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone joining us today, along with your loved ones and colleagues, are safe and healthy. Every one of us is doing our part to combat is pandemic by sheltering in place and practicing social distancing. But no one is doing more for us than our first responders, frontline workers and those providing essential services. To them, I'd like to extend our sincerest thanks on behalf of everyone in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings for all they are doing for communities around the world.

謝謝你，安德里亞，大家早上好。我希望今天加入我們的每個人，以及您的親人和同事，都安全健康。我們每個人都在儘自己的一份力量，通過就地避難和保持社交距離來抗擊流行病。但沒有人比我們的第一響應者、一線工作人員和提供基本服務的人為我們做的更多。對於他們，我謹代表挪威郵輪控股公司的每一個人，向他們為世界各地的社區所做的一切表示最誠摯的感謝。

In the 3 months that have passed since we last spoke, the entire world's way of life has changed. The impact from COVID-19 global pandemic on our company and the broader travel industry have been swift and severe. In my weekly communications to our team members, I consistently stress 2 themes: first is to ensure that we are taking care of our guests, our crew, our travel partners and each other; second is what I consider key to overcoming this uniquely challenging time in our history, and that is to be nimble and to be ready to adapt to the fluid environment around us.

自從我們上次發言後的三個月裡，整個世界的生活方式都發生了變化。 COVID-19 全球大流行對我們公司和更廣泛的旅遊業的影響是迅速而嚴重的。在我每週與團隊成員的溝通中，我一直強調兩個主題：首先是確保我們照顧好我們的客人、我們的工作人員、我們的旅行夥伴和彼此；其次是我認為克服我們歷史上這一獨特挑戰時期的關鍵，那就是保持敏捷並準備好適應我們周圍多變的環境。

And what the team at Norwegian has accomplished in the 2 short months since we suspended voyages is nothing short of extraordinary. In that time, we have laid up our entire fleet, repatriated over half of our 28,000 crew members, significantly pared back operating and capital expenditures, improved our debt maturity profile and successfully completed a historic simultaneously executed quad-tranche capital raise of $2.4 billion. These actions will enable us to weather the unlikely scenario of over 18 months in a 0 revenue environment and still have enough liquidity to relaunch operations when conditions allow. I couldn't be proud of what our team has accomplished, and now they have risen to the occasion by continually adapting to the ever-changing environment.

在我們暫停航行後的短短 2 個月內，挪威人的團隊所取得的成就簡直是非凡的。在那段時間裡，我們已經部署了整個船隊，遣返了超過一半的 28,000 名船員，大幅削減了運營和資本支出，改善了我們的債務到期狀況，並成功完成了歷史性的同時執行的 24 億美元四期融資。這些行動將使我們能夠在收入為零的環境中度過 18 個月以上的不太可能發生的情況，並且在條件允許時仍有足夠的流動性來重新啟動業務。我不能為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到自豪，現在他們已經通過不斷適應不斷變化的環境來應對這種情況。

In its 53-year history, Norwegian has overcome a myriad of exogenous events, many during the tenure of this management team. And we haven't just persevered after these challenging events. We've proven our mettle, our resilience and we've thrived. We have done so because of the mix of the unmatched value and unique experiences that only cruising provides, coupled with an exceptional management team, one that has faced and overcome uncontrollable black swan events in a multitude of headwinds time and again.

在其 53 年的歷史中，挪威航空克服了無數外部事件，其中許多是在管理團隊任職期間。在這些具有挑戰性的事件之後，我們不僅堅持了下來。我們已經證明了我們的勇氣，我們的韌性，我們已經茁壯成長。我們之所以這樣做，是因為融合了只有巡航才能提供的無與倫比的價值和獨特的體驗，再加上一支出色的管理團隊，一個在眾多逆風中一次又一次面對和克服無法控制的黑天鵝事件的管理團隊。

While much remains unknown regarding the severity and duration of the global economic downturn resulting from COVID-19, we do know from history that the excitement factor and value proposition that cruising provides will be, when the time is right, a compelling driver of reviving consumer demand. And as far as that value proposition goes, we believe that we have an unbeatable competitive advantage with 3 brands that offers the most value path proposition in the industry. To demonstrate that advantage, for the 2 months of sailings we operated in the first quarter of 2020, we generated higher net yield revenue and adjusted EBITDA than over the prior year, and this, despite numerous canceled sailings in Asia and the incremental customary cost without corresponding revenue that came from the launch of Seven Seas Splendor.

儘管關於 COVID-19 導致的全球經濟衰退的嚴重程度和持續時間仍有許多未知之處，但我們從歷史中確實知道，巡航提供的興奮因素和價值主張將在適當的時候成為振興消費者的有力推動力要求。就該價值主張而言，我們相信我們擁有無與倫比的競爭優勢，擁有 3 個提供業內最具價值路徑主張的品牌。為了證明這一優勢，我們在 2020 年第一季度運營的 2 個月的航行中，我們產生了比上一年更高的淨收益收入和調整後的 EBITDA，儘管亞洲多次取消航行並且沒有增加慣常成本七海輝煌推出的相應收入。

On Slide 4, we provide an update on our current book position. There continues to be demand for cruise vacations, particularly beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020 and accelerating through 2021, with the company's overall book position at this time and pricing for 2021 within historical ranges. These are 2 examples, one from the recent past and one pointing to the feature, both of which demonstrate the underlying demand at cruising and cruising on our brands has had in the past and will also have in the future. As I mentioned earlier, the impacts from COVID-19 were swift and severe, and they require a response exponentially faster and larger than any in our recent history.

在幻燈片 4 上，我們提供了當前圖書位置的更新。對郵輪假期的需求持續存在，特別是從 2020 年第四季度開始並加速到 2021 年，公司此時的整體賬面狀況和 2021 年的定價在歷史範圍內。這是 2 個示例，一個來自最近的過去，一個指向該功能，這兩個示例都展示了我們品牌過去和未來對巡航和巡航的潛在需求。正如我之前提到的，COVID-19 的影響是迅速而嚴重的，它們需要比我們近期歷史上任何時候都更快、更大的反應。

I'll direct you to Slide 5 of our presentation where we parse our company's response to the pandemic in 3 phases. In the first phase, which I will discuss in a moment, we addressed our immediate operational concerns. In the second, which Mark will cover in his commentary, we swiftly executed on a financial action plan to reduce costs and increase liquidity. Lastly, I'll come back to discuss where we find ourselves today, developing a road map to launch a new era of cruising across our 3 brands.

我將引導您查看我們演示文稿的幻燈片 5，我們在其中分三個階段分析了我們公司對大流行的反應。在第一階段，我稍後會討論，我們解決了我們眼前的運營問題。第二，馬克將在他的評論中介紹，我們迅速執行了一項財務行動計劃，以降低成本和增加流動性。最後，我將回過頭來討論我們今天所處的位置，制定路線圖以開啟我們三個品牌的巡航新時代。

Phase 1 began by quickly addressing concerns over COVID-19 when the virus was mainly impacting Asia, and we proactively canceled or modified 40 voyages in the region across our 3 brands. Despite the virus' initial impact predominantly affecting greater Asia, we began adapting and enhancing our embarkation and sanitation protocols worldwide, which you can see on Slide 6, across our 28-ship fleet. As the leader in one of the most consumer-facing industries in the world, the health and safety of our guests and crew is always our top priority, and we are accustomed to implementing new procedures quickly and efficiently.

第一階段首先迅速解決了當病毒主要影響亞洲時對 COVID-19 的擔憂，我們主動取消或修改了我們 3 個品牌在該地區的 40 次航行。儘管病毒最初的影響主要影響到大亞洲地區，但我們開始在全球範圍內調整和加強我們的登船和衛生協議，您可以在幻燈片 6 中看到我們擁有 28 艘船隊的這些協議。作為世界上最面向消費者的行業之一的領導者，我們的客人和船員的健康和安全始終是我們的首要任務，我們習慣於快速有效地實施新程序。

As the pandemic progressed, we continued to adapt and increase the rigor and frequency of our protocols. When guests became hesitant to travel, we introduced relaxed cancellation policies to alleviate many of our guests' concerns by providing them peace of mind regarding their cruise vacation. Our most decisive action came on March 13 when we announced what we thought was a temporary 30-day suspension of voyages across all our brands. Never had our company halted sailings across an entire fleet and suspended them for an extended period of time, but it was necessary for us to play our part in combating the spread of COVID-19.

隨著大流行的進展，我們繼續調整和增加我們協議的嚴格性和頻率。當客人對旅行猶豫不決時，我們推出了寬鬆的取消政策，以減輕許多客人的擔憂，讓他們對郵輪假期感到安心。我們最果斷的行動發生在 3 月 13 日，當時我們宣布我們認為暫停所有品牌的航行 30 天。我們公司從未停止過整個船隊的航行並長時間停航，但我們有必要在抗擊 COVID-19 的傳播中發揮自己的作用。

With voyages suspended, our next challenge was safely disembarking our guests as soon as possible and securing safe harbor for our 28 vessels. The offices and crew across our fleet, along with our shoreside teams, displayed an extraordinary amount of urgency, professionalism and compassion in the face of this monumental task. Today, all vessels remain in safe harbor and we continue to work with the CDC and other regulatory bodies to repatriate crew back to their home countries. Our guests impacted by the canceled sailings were offered value-added future cruise credits worth 125% of the cruise fare paid to compensate them for the disruption and disappointment of canceled vacation. This enhanced offer which has proven to be popular, was provided to guests in real cash refunds and can be used on future voyages all the way through the end of 2022.

隨著航行暫停，我們的下一個挑戰是盡快讓我們的客人安全下船，並為我們的 28 艘船確保安全港。面對這項艱鉅的任務，我們船隊的辦公室和船員，以及我們的岸上團隊，表現出非凡的緊迫感、專業精神和同情心。今天，所有船隻仍處於安全港，我們將繼續與 CDC 和其他監管機構合作，將船員遣返本國。我們為受取消航行影響的客人提供了價值 125% 的郵輪票價的增值未來郵輪積分，以補償他們因取消假期而造成的干擾和失望。這項已證明很受歡迎的增強型優惠以實際現金退款的形式提供給客人，並可在 2022 年底之前的航程中使用。

Lastly, our entire shoreside operation was moved to work remotely, an endeavor that involved shifting an entire global workforce to work virtually in a matter of days. I want to commend our IT and human resources team for flawlessly executing on this initiative in such a condensed time frame.

最後，我們將整個岸上業務轉移到遠程工作，這項工作涉及在幾天內將整個全球勞動力轉移到虛擬工作。我要讚揚我們的 IT 和人力資源團隊在如此緊湊的時間框架內完美地執行了這項計劃。

And currently, as you can see on Slide 7, we swiftly developed and launched our financial action plan to prepare the company for a prolonged voyage suspension. Mark and his team were instrumental in spearheading this phase of our response, so I'd like to turn the call over to him now to discuss our action plan in more details, provide a deeper dive into our liquidity position and discuss our results for the quarter. Mark?

目前，正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣，我們迅速制定並啟動了我們的財務行動計劃，為公司長期停航做好準備。馬克和他的團隊在領導我們這一階段的響應中發揮了重要作用，因此我現在想將電話轉給他，以更詳細地討論我們的行動計劃，更深入地了解我們的流動性狀況並討論我們的結果四分之一。標記？

Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone. Given the swift and significant impact COVID-19 has had on our business, my remarks today will not be typical for an earnings call. I will not focus on yield growth or net cruise costs as today, these metrics simply aren't relevant. Instead, I will focus on the quick development and execution of our financial action plan and how we believe we've positioned our company to withstand an unlikely scenario of over 18 months in a 0 revenue environment.

謝謝你，弗蘭克，大家早上好。鑑於 COVID-19 對我們的業務產生的迅速而重大的影響，我今天的講話對於財報電話會議來說並不典型。我不會像今天那樣關注產量增長或淨巡航成本，這些指標根本不相關。相反，我將專注於快速制定和執行我們的財務行動計劃，以及我們如何相信我們的公司能夠在收入為零的環境中承受超過 18 個月的不太可能發生的情況。

Slide 7 illustrates our 4-point action plan, which we quickly implemented to conserve and increase cash to protect the business. The 4 key areas of focus include: reducing operating expenses, reducing capital expenditures, improving our debt maturity profile and securing additional capital. First, let's focus on operating expenses on Slide 8. We deployed several levers to reduce both shoreside and shipboard operating expenses. SG&A savings included the significant reduction or deferment of near-term marketing expenses, the introduction of a shortened work week with a commensurate 20% salary reduction for team members and a furlough of approximately 20% of shoreside employees through July 31. These actions affecting our team members were especially difficult. However, unlike layoffs, the furlough process allows impacted team members to remain employees of the company while continuing to receive benefits. In addition, we committed to covering our team members' share of medical insurance premiums during the furlough period. It was the least we could do to support our impacted team until we can welcome them back.

幻燈片 7 展示了我們的 4 點行動計劃，我們迅速實施了該計劃以節省和增加現金以保護業務。重點關注的 4 個關鍵領域包括：減少運營費用、減少資本支出、改善我們的債務到期狀況和獲得額外資本。首先，讓我們關注幻燈片 8 的運營費用。我們部署了幾個槓桿來減少岸上和船上的運營費用。 SG&A 節省包括顯著減少或推遲近期營銷費用，引入縮短的工作週，將團隊成員的工資相應減少 20%，以及在 7 月 31 日之前讓大約 20% 的岸上員工休假。這些行動影響了我們團隊成員特別困難。然而，與裁員不同的是，休假流程允許受影響的團隊成員在繼續獲得福利的同時繼續留在公司。此外，我們承諾在休假期間為我們的團隊成員支付醫療保險費。在我們歡迎他們回來之前，我們能做的至少是支持我們受影響的團隊。

As for shipboard operating expenses, as you can see on Slide 9, with cruise voyages suspended through June 30, we meaningfully reduced expenses such as crew payroll, fuel, food and port charges. As we reduced our manning levels and transitioned the majority of our ships to cold lay-up, we continue to repatriate crew back to their home countries, working through challenges around global travel restrictions.

至於船上運營費用，正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣，郵輪航行暫停至 6 月 30 日，我們有意義地減少了船員工資、燃料、食品和港口費用等費用。隨著我們減少人員配備水平並將我們的大部分船舶轉變為冷擱置狀態，我們繼續將船員遣返本國，以應對全球旅行限制方面的挑戰。

On Slide 10, we provided details around ongoing monthly ship and administrative operating expenses under 2 scenarios: a warm lay-up and a cold lay-up. The primary difference between the 2 scenarios is that a cold lay-up is a prolonged lay-up with further reduction of staffing to a skeleton crew and further savings to fuel expense, repairs and maintenance and other operating costs. All of the cost-saving measures implemented have significantly reduced operating expense to approximately $70 million per month, with all of our ships in a cold lay-up scenario and approximately $110 million per month in a warm lay-up scenario. With the majority of our ships transitioning to cold lay-up, we are moving towards the lower end of that range.

在幻燈片 10 中，我們提供了兩種情況下每月船舶和行政運營費用的詳細信息：熱擱置和冷擱置。這兩種情況的主要區別在於，冷擱置是一種長時間擱置，進一步減少了骨干人員的配備，並進一步節省了燃料費用、維修和保養以及其他運營成本。實施的所有成本節約措施已將運營費用顯著降低至每月約 7,000 萬美元，我們所有的船舶都處於冷擱置情況下，而在暖擱置情況下每月約為 1.1 億美元。隨著我們的大多數船舶過渡到冷擱置，我們正朝著該範圍的低端移動。

Shifting to capital expenditures on Slide 11. We identified approximately $515 million in reductions. Non-new build capital expenditures for the remainder of 2020 were reduced by approximately 65% or almost $350 million. We are also finalizing documentation to defer approximately $170 million of new build CapEx-related payments due through March 31, 2021. Total CapEx for 2020, including both new build and non-new build, is now expected to be approximately $805 million, of which approximately $195 million will be spent throughout the remainder of the year. First quarter CapEx was elevated due to the delivery of Seven Seas Splendor and the whole revitalization of Norwegian Spirit.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的資本支出。我們確定減少了大約 5.15 億美元。 2020 年剩餘時間的非新建資本支出減少了約 65% 或近 3.5 億美元。我們還在敲定文件，將大約 1.7 億美元的新建資本支出相關付款推遲到 2021 年 3 月 31 日。2020 年的總資本支出（包括新建和非新建）預計約為 8.05 億美元，其中今年剩餘時間將花費大約 1.95 億美元。由於七海輝煌的交付和挪威精神的整體振興，第一季度的資本支出有所提高。

As we look forward, we are also benefiting from lower near-term CapEx commitments resulting from moderate capacity growth, with no new capacity additions scheduled for delivery until mid-2022, which could be delayed, given extended closures at shipyards. Given the continued uncertainty, we are not providing CapEx guidance for 2021 and 2022 at this time. Another key focus in our action plan was improving our debt maturity profile through the deferral of amortization payments and the extension of maturities.

正如我們所期待的那樣，我們還受益於產能適度增長導致的近期資本支出承諾減少，在 2022 年年中之前不會增加新的產能，由於造船廠的關閉時間延長，這可能會延遲。鑑於持續存在的不確定性，我們目前不提供 2021 年和 2022 年的資本支出指導。我們行動計劃的另一個重點是通過推遲攤銷支付和延長到期日來改善我們的債務到期狀況。

As you can see on Slide 12, we took advantage of an industry-wide 12-month debt holiday initiative granted by export credit agencies, and we expect to be able to defer approximately $540 million of total debt amortization payments through March 31, 2021. Approximately $385 million of this has already been finalized with Hermes, the export credit agency in Germany, and we are currently finalizing documentation for the balance with our other ECA lenders. This initiative also provides financial covenant testing relief for 12 months, with all postponed amortization to be repaid evenly over the following 4 years and 8 semiannual installments.

正如您在幻燈片 12 中看到的那樣，我們利用了出口信貸機構授予的全行業 12 個月的債務減免計劃，我們預計能夠將約 5.4 億美元的債務攤銷總額推遲到 2021 年 3 月 31 日。其中大約 3.85 億美元已經與德國出口信貸機構 Hermes 敲定，我們目前正在與我們的其他 ECA 貸方敲定餘額文件。該計劃還提供 12 個月的財務契約測試減免，所有延期攤銷將在接下來的 4 年和 8 個半年期分期付款中平均償還。

In addition, our commercial lenders also agreed to a 12-month debt holiday for approximately $150 million of amortization payments, bringing our total aggregate deferrals of payments to approximately $700 million. We also extended our debt maturity profile meaningfully by exercising a contractual option to extend our $230 million Pride of America term loan maturity by 1 year to January 2022 as well as extending our new $675 million revolving credit facility maturity by 1 year to March 2022. These actions, coupled with the amortization deferrals, leave us with no significant debt maturities through 2021.

此外，我們的商業貸方還同意為約 1.5 億美元的攤銷付款提供 12 個月的債務豁免期，使我們的總延期付款總額達到約 7 億美元。我們還通過行使合同選擇權將我們的 2.3 億美元的美國驕傲定期貸款期限延長 1 年至 2022 年 1 月，並將我們新的 6.75 億美元的循環信貸工具的期限延長一年至 2022 年 3 月，從而有意義地延長了我們的債務期限。這些行動，加上攤銷延期，使我們到 2021 年沒有重大債務到期。

On Slide 13, we outlined the multiple measures we took to secure over $3 billion of new capital and liquidity in response to COVID-19. In March, we quickly secured a new $675 million revolver and subsequently drew down on both that and our existing untapped $875 million revolver. Just last week, we completed a series of highly successful capital market transactions led by Goldman Sachs. Significant demand for this capital raise resulted in the transaction being oversubscribed many times over. Not only did we have excess demand across the 3 offerings, the greenshoe options were also fully executed for both the ordinary shares and exchangeable notes.

在幻燈片 13 中，我們概述了我們為應對 COVID-19 為確保超過 30 億美元的新資本和流動性而採取的多項措施。 3 月，我們迅速獲得了一支價值 6.75 億美元的新左輪手槍，隨後又動用了這支和我們現有的 8.75 億美元未開發的左輪手槍。就在上週，我們完成了由高盛牽頭的一系列非常成功的資本市場交易。對此次融資的巨大需求導致交易被多次超額認購。不僅我們對 3 次發行的需求過剩，而且普通股和可交換票據的綠鞋期權也得到了充分執行。

As a result, the transaction was upsized from $2 billion to approximately $2.4 billion of gross proceeds, significantly strengthening our financial position and extending our liquidity runway. We are extremely pleased with the result of this transaction and are proud of the team's adaptability to execute this extremely complex capital raise while sheltering in place.

因此，該交易的總收益從 20 億美元增加到約 24 億美元，顯著增強了我們的財務狀況並擴大了我們的流動資金渠道。我們對此次交易的結果感到非常滿意，並為團隊在原地避難的同時執行這一極其複雜的融資的適應性感到自豪。

Turning to Slide 14. We have provided an illustrative liquidity runway that shows how we believe we are well positioned to withstand an unlikely scenario of over 18 months in a 0 revenue environment. Our pro forma liquidity post the capital market transactions is approximately $3.7 billion as of quarter end. At the end of the first quarter, we had just under $1.2 billion of advanced ticket sales related to the remainder of 2020, including approximately $800 million for voyage cancellations through June 30, where guests can choose to accept a value-add future cruise credit or a full cash refund.

轉到幻燈片 14。我們提供了一個說明性的流動性跑道，顯示了我們如何相信我們有能力在收入為零的環境中承受超過 18 個月的不太可能的情況。截至季度末，我們在資本市場交易後的備考流動性約為 37 億美元。在第一季度末，我們與 2020 年剩餘時間相關的預售票銷售額略低於 12 億美元，其中約 8 億美元用於取消截至 6 月 30 日的航程，客人可以選擇接受增值的未來游輪積分或全額現金退款。

To date, slightly over half of guests have requested a cash refund. For the remainder of 2020, we have approximately $370 million of advanced ticket sales on the books. Our net liquidity is approximately $3.1 billion, assuming roughly half of the customer deposits for all sailings in 2020 are refunded. Our cost reduction and cash conservation measures have resulted in a significant decrease to our monthly cash burn rate, which is now expected to be in the range of $120 million to $160 million per month. This includes additional cash financing expense associated with debt refinancings and new financing secured last week, which is expected to be approximately $12 million per month over the next 12 months. This burn rate excludes cash refunds and cash inflows from both new and existing bookings.

迄今為止，略超過一半的客人要求現金退款。在 2020 年剩餘的時間裡，我們有大約 3.7 億美元的預售票。我們的淨流動性約為 31 億美元，假設 2020 年所有航行的大約一半客戶押金都已退還。我們的成本削減和現金節約措施導致我們的每月現金消耗率顯著下降，現在預計每月在 1.2 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間。這包括與債務再融資和上週獲得的新融資相關的額外現金融資費用，預計未來 12 個月每月約為 1200 萬美元。此消耗率不包括來自新預訂和現有預訂的現金退款和現金流入。

As you can see, we believe we have significantly extended our liquidity runway to over 18 months in a prolonged 0 revenue environment scenario, which we do not expect. The recent capital raise and the significant measures taken to reduce costs and conserve cash and alleviated management's concern about the company's ability to continue as a going concern for the next 12 months, which is simply a technical accounting reporting requirement that is -- that received some slightly out of context media attention last week.

如您所見，我們認為在長期為零的收入環境中，我們已將流動性跑道顯著延長至超過 18 個月，這是我們沒有預料到的。最近的融資以及為降低成本和節省現金而採取的重大措施，減輕了管理層對公司在未來 12 個月內持續經營能力的擔憂，這只是技術性會計報告要求，即收到了一些上週媒體關注略有脫節。

Shifting the focus to our financial results. The first quarter was significantly impacted by COVID-19. Not only did we feel the impact from canceled and modified cruise voyages, we also recorded a $1.6 billion noncash impairment loss related to goodwill and trade names. In addition, the reduction in fuel consumption driven by canceled voyages resulted in an approximately $14 million loss related to a portion of our fuel hedge portfolio due to a reduction in forecasted fuel consumption and flows through the other income line. As a result, we recorded a net loss on a U.S. GAAP basis of $1.9 billion or $8.80 per share.

將重點轉移到我們的財務業績上。第一季度受到 COVID-19 的顯著影響。我們不僅感受到了取消和修改郵輪航次的影響，我們還記錄了與商譽和商品名稱相關的 16 億美元非現金減值損失。此外，由於預計的燃料消耗和流經另一條收入線的流量減少，取消航次導致的燃料消耗減少導致與我們的部分燃料對沖投資組合相關的約 1400 萬美元損失。因此，我們在美國公認會計原則基礎上錄得 19 億美元或每股 8.80 美元的淨虧損。

Looking ahead, given the rapidly evolving impacts from the pandemic, we cannot estimate the impact on our business or the longer-term financial and operational results with certainty and therefore will not be providing second quarter or full year guidance. While we are not providing traditional guidance, we do expect to report a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the quarter ending June 30 and the year ending December 31, 2020.

展望未來，鑑於大流行的影響迅速發展，我們無法確定地估計對我們的業務或長期財務和運營結果的影響，因此不會提供第二季度或全年的指導。雖然我們沒有提供傳統的指導，但我們確實預計截至 6 月 30 日的季度和截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的年度在美國公認會計原則和調整後的基礎上都將出現淨虧損。

Before returning the call back to Frank, I want to reiterate our confidence in our ability to weather the impacts of COVID-19 and emerge stronger on the other side. Our strong liquidity position gives us ample resources to absorb a prolonged voyage suspension, allowing the team at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to focus on doing what is right for our guests, crew, travel partners, team members and other stakeholders while protecting the equity of our brands for the long term.

在將電話回复給弗蘭克之前，我想重申我們對我們能夠抵禦 COVID-19 的影響並在另一邊變得更強大的信心。我們強大的流動性狀況為我們提供了充足的資源來應對長期停航的情況，使挪威郵輪控股公司的團隊能夠專注於為我們的客人、船員、旅行合作夥伴、團隊成員和其他利益相關者做正確的事情，同時保護我們的權益長期的品牌。

Lastly, we believe in our business model, which has demonstrated its resilience repeatedly in the past and are confident it will do so again.

最後，我們相信我們的商業模式，這種模式在過去反复展示了它的彈性，並且有信心它會再次這樣做。

With that, I'll hand the call back over to Frank to discuss our next phase of response to COVID-19 and provide some closing commentary.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給弗蘭克，討論我們對 COVID-19 的下一階段響應並提供一些結束評論。

Couldn't find the mute button, Mark. Thank you. With our ships in safe harbor and an enhanced liquidity position post our extremely successful capital raise, we now shift our focus to the third phase of our response as seen on Slide 15, executing on our road map for a new era of cruising. This phase is critical, very critical, and will be predicated on 2 main factors: first, receiving approval to safely resume operations from governments around the world, including the CDC; and second and most important, providing consumers with absolute confidence in our ability to deliver safe and healthy vacation environment through new and enhanced health and safety protocols, utilizing the latest state-of-the-art technologies and testing methodologies.

找不到靜音按鈕，馬克。謝謝你。由於我們的船舶處於安全港，並且在我們非常成功地籌集資金後流動性狀況有所增強，我們現在將重點轉移到我們響應的第三階段，如幻燈片 15 所示，執行我們的新巡航時代路線圖。這一階段至關重要，非常關鍵，將取決於兩個主要因素：首先，獲得包括 CDC 在內的世界各國政府安全恢復運營的批准；其次，也是最重要的一點，通過新的和增強的健康和安全協議，利用最新的最先進的技術和測試方法，讓消費者對我們提供安全和健康的假期環境的能力充滿信心。

Nothing will be more critical to resuming sustained and profitable long-term operations and making cruising the safest option in the travel and leisure space and providing our guests with the peace of mind around their good health while vacationing aboard our vessels. This will require a multipronged, multidisciplinary and multi-agency and global strategy that will involve strong collaboration between cruise lines, industry associations, national and local governments, public health agencies and ports around the world.

沒有什麼比恢復持續和盈利的長期運營更重要了，讓巡航成為旅行和休閒空間中最安全的選擇，並讓我們的客人在我們的船上度假時享受健康的安心。這將需要一個多管齊下、多學科和多機構的全球戰略，這將涉及郵輪公司、行業協會、國家和地方政府、公共衛生機構和世界各地的港口之間的密切合作。

Our goal is to preserve the traditional elements of the cruise experience, the great value, the multiple destinations visited, the wide array of dining and entertainment offerings modified as necessary as to the many changes we are becoming accustomed to in our daily lives.

我們的目標是保留郵輪體驗的傳統元素、巨大的價值、訪問的多個目的地、廣泛的餐飲和娛樂產品，根據我們在日常生活中逐漸習慣的許多變化進行必要的修改。

Another area of focus is working with our port agents and operators around the globe to understand and coordinate plans for reopening. This endeavor will undoubtedly involve fits and starts as destinations decide when to reopen cruise ports. Overlaying these plans with possible new consumer demand trends will guide the early days of our gradual relaunch, including which itineraries will first come online. Having assets with rudders and propellers is a unique advantage to our industry as we can be extremely nimble and reposition our ships as needed.

另一個重點領域是與我們在全球的港口代理和運營商合作，了解和協調重新開放的計劃。隨著目的地決定何時重新開放郵輪港口，這項努力無疑將涉及斷斷續續。將這些計劃與可能的新消費者需求趨勢疊加起來，將指導我們逐步重新啟動的初期，包括哪些行程將首先上線。擁有帶舵和螺旋槳的資產對我們的行業來說是一個獨特的優勢，因為我們可以非常靈活並根據需要重新定位我們的船舶。

While our operations team's focused on protocols and destination, our brand presidents will focus on reactivating and accelerating the sales and marketing machine that is at the heart of our market to fill philosophy. Our brands have done a fantastic job fostering demand in engaging guests and travel partners in this challenging operating environment with our ships sitting idle. As we prepare for sailings to resume, we will have to adapt our marketing strategy to focus on health and safety measures while, at the same time, keeping sight on the overall drilling experience of cruising and what makes it such a unique vacation experience in the travel industry.

雖然我們的運營團隊專注於協議和目的地，但我們的品牌總裁將專注於重新激活和加速作為我們市場核心的銷售和營銷機器，以填補理念。在我們的船舶閒置的充滿挑戰的運營環境中，我們的品牌在促進客人和旅行合作夥伴參與方面做得非常出色。當我們為恢復航行做準備時，我們將不得不調整我們的營銷策略，將重點放在健康和安全措施上，同時關注巡航的整體鑽井體驗，以及是什麼讓它成為在旅遊業。

With new protocols in place, coordination with ports and demand engines churning, what follows will be a phased relaunch of voyages. We expect sailings to restart with a handful of vessels phasing in others over a period of 5 to 6 months before we have our full fleet back in operation. As I said earlier, as with many new endeavors, there will be fits and starts that will require the quick implementation of new protocols, which we will continue to adapt as we learn what works and as newer, more efficient and more cost-effective technologies involve and become readily available.

隨著新協議的到位，與港口和需求引擎的協調，接下來將是分階段重新啟動航程。我們預計在我們的全部船隊重新投入運營之前的 5 到 6 個月內，少數幾艘船將逐步重新開始航行。正如我之前所說，與許多新的努力一樣，將需要快速實施新協議的間歇和開始，隨著我們了解什麼是有效的以及更新、更高效和更具成本效益的技術，我們將繼續適應這些協議參與並變得容易獲得。

Before turning to Q&A, I'd like to leave you with a few key takeaways from Slide 16. First, we have significantly strengthened our financial position to withstand a prolonged suspension of voyages by significantly reducing operational and capital expenses and executing several liquidity-enhancing measures, including a successful capital raise of $2.4 billion. Second, there continues to be demand for cruise vacations despite limited marketing and demand-generating investments. And lastly, we are intently focused on developing and executing the next level of health and safety protocols for a new era of cruising, led by a seasoned management team that has proven its ability to navigate through uncertain and challenging times.

在轉向 Q&A 之前，我想從幻燈片 16 中向您展示一些關鍵要點。首先，我們通過顯著降低運營和資本支出並執行多項提高流動性的措施，顯著增強了我們的財務狀況，以承受長期停航的情況措施，包括成功籌集 24 億美元的資金。其次，儘管營銷和產生需求的投資有限，但對郵輪假期的需求仍然存在。最後，我們專注於為新的巡航時代製定和執行更高級別的健康和安全協議，由經驗豐富的管理團隊領導，該團隊已證明其有能力度過不確定和充滿挑戰的時代。

And with that, Jonathan, let's open up the call for questions, please.

有了這個，喬納森，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Thomas Allen。

So focusing on the future, how do you think your higher domestic source mix and your higher absolute yields will affect the way your recovery looks versus the industry in general?

因此，著眼於未來，您認為較高的國內資源組合和較高的絕對產量將如何影響您的複蘇與整個行業相比？

Thomas, I think there's a lot of muscle memory throughout the ecosystem and so everything is relative. I think the demand -- overall demand certainly will be impacted. It will be weaker as we roll out, as the economy takes its toll, as people need to regain confidence in the cruise industry and our ability to keep them healthy. But if we were -- if we had the highest yields coming into this, I think we'll have the highest yields during it and highest yields coming out of it. Part of it is because of our brands. Part of it is because of our fleet. Part of it is because our go-to-market strategy, as you know, is not to discount to fill. It's to market to fill. So we're very anxious to getting back to do what we do best, which is marketing. And as you know, we have literally shut down the marketing machine, the sales and marketing machine over the last 10 weeks or so. And despite that shutdown, as you've seen in our disclosures today, we're still taking bookings. And that gives us a lot of encouragement that despite everything that's going on, people still want to cruise. And I think that's the best indication we have that there is a future and the future will be bright.

托馬斯，我認為整個生態系統都有很多肌肉記憶，所以一切都是相對的。我認為需求——整體需求肯定會受到影響。隨著我們的推出，隨著經濟的發展，隨著人們需要恢復對郵輪業的信心以及我們保持健康的能力，它會變得更弱。但是，如果我們是 - 如果我們有最高的收益率，我認為我們將在此期間獲得最高的收益率，並且從中獲得最高的收益率。部分原因在於我們的品牌。部分原因是我們的船隊。如您所知，部分原因是我們的上市策略不是打折來填補。這是市場來填補。所以我們非常渴望重新做我們最擅長的事情，那就是營銷。如您所知，在過去 10 週左右的時間裡，我們實際上已經關閉了營銷機器、銷售和營銷機器。儘管關閉了，正如你在我們今天的披露中看到的那樣，我們仍在接受預訂。這給了我們很大的鼓勵，儘管發生了一切，但人們仍然想巡航。我認為這是我們擁有的最好的跡象，表明未來是光明的。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, you -- there was some encouraging comments on the prepared remarks around overall book position and pricing for 2021 being within historical ranges. How much of that is new money being booked versus rebookings of existing mortgages? And how should we think about that?

好的。然後，作為後續行動，您 - 對於圍繞整體賬面狀況和 2021 年定價處於歷史範圍內的準備好的評論，有一些令人鼓舞的評論。與重新預訂現有抵押貸款相比，新的資金有多少？我們應該如何考慮呢？

Yes. The vast majority, the vast majority of the booked position today that has us within historical ranges, and historical ranges for us means '17, '18, '19, '20, the last 3, 4 years, the vast majority is good old cash bookings. Over time, as people finalize their future plans, we hope that they do take advantage of those future cruise certificates, which, as you know, are good through the end of 2022. So they've got plenty of time. But today, the vast majority of those sailings -- of those bookings, I should say, are just normal cash bookings.

是的。絕大多數，今天的絕大多數預訂位置使我們處於歷史範圍內，而歷史範圍對我們來說意味著'17，'18，'19，'20，過去3、4年，絕大多數都是好舊的現金預訂。隨著時間的推移，隨著人們最終確定他們的未來計劃，我們希望他們能夠利用這些未來的郵輪證書，如您所知，這些證書在 2022 年底之前都很好。所以他們有足夠的時間。但是今天，這些航行中的絕大多數——我應該說，這些預訂只是普通的現金預訂。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Grambling。

I guess -- I know there's a lot of unknowns, but how do you think about the free cash flow generation at the ship level at various occupancy levels as you start seeing some go back out in the water and there are still different social distancing measures that could be in place?

我猜——我知道有很多未知數，但是當你開始看到一些人回到水中並且仍然有不同的社會疏離措施時，你如何看待船舶層面在不同入住率下產生的自由現金流那可以到位嗎？

Don't think of it as load factors. Think of it as total revenue. As you know, yield total revenue's made up of 3 variables: load factor, ticket revenue and onboard revenue. And so there is a relatively low total revenue threshold before that particular sailing is cash positive. But look, the #1 factor as we relaunch operations is not the -- necessarily the revenue of a particular sailing or the EBITDA of a particular sailing. It's regaining the confidence of the consumer so the consumer can continue to book under the normal booking curve. Remember, this is a forward-looking business. The cash flows that comes from customer deposits and the advanced payments is what fuels this industry and what has been draining out of everybody's treasury over the last 10 weeks or so as we either cancel sailings or people cancel their own voyages for a myriad of reasons.

不要將其視為負載因素。將其視為總收入。如您所知，收益總收入由 3 個變量組成：載客率、門票收入和機上收入。因此，在特定航行產生現金之前，總收入門檻相對較低。但是看，當我們重新啟動運營時，#1 因素並不一定是特定航行的收入或特定航行的 EBITDA。它正在恢復消費者的信心，因此消費者可以繼續在正常的預訂曲線下進行預訂。請記住，這是一項具有前瞻性的業務。來自客戶存款和預付款的現金流是推動這個行業發展的動力，也是過去 10 週左右從每個人的國庫中流失的資金，因為我們要么取消航行，要么人們出於各種原因取消自己的航程。

So as we start operations, we've got to regain momentum, Stephen. This is an industry, a company that was running 1,000 miles an hour and overnight was shut down to just a screeching halt, and we've got to get that momentum back. And so I am less concerned about what the EBITDA, the revenue may be of a particular sailing, especially in the first 30 or 60 to 90 days, but I'm more concerned about getting back normal operations, getting back to the sales and marketing machine, churning out which churns out the cash flow necessary to rebuild our advanced ticket sales because the important part is knowing that people book 7, 8 months in advance, let's not forget that. And so I'm concerned about cash inflows in the short term as we resume operations, and we'll be looking at what revenue and EBITDA will be 6, 7, 8 months after that in the normal course of what the booking curves are.

所以當我們開始運營時，我們必須重新獲得動力，斯蒂芬。這是一個行業，一個以每小時 1,000 英里的速度運行並在一夜之間被關閉的公司，只是突然停止，我們必須恢復這種勢頭。所以我不太關心 EBITDA 是多少，收入可能是特定航行的，尤其是在前 30 或 60 到 90 天，但我更關心恢復正常運營，恢復銷售和營銷機器，大量生產出重建我們高級門票銷售所需的現金流，因為重要的部分是知道人們提前 7、8 個月預訂，我們不要忘記這一點。因此，隨著我們恢復運營，我擔心短期內的現金流入，我們將關注在正常的預訂曲線過程中，6、7、8 個月後的收入和 EBITDA 將是多少。

That's helpful. And as a related follow-up, can you just remind us, what percentage of forward bookings typically come onboard the ships? And any other color? It sounds like you're kind of going down this path, but around when working capital would potentially inflect as we think about different booking curves and ships coming back out in the water.

這很有幫助。作為相關的後續行動，您能否提醒我們，通常有多少比例的遠期預訂來自船上？還有其他顏色嗎？聽起來你有點走這條路，但是當我們考慮不同的預訂曲線和船隻返回水中時，營運資金可能會發生變化。

I'm not sure I understand the question, Stephen.

我不確定我是否理解這個問題，斯蒂芬。

Yes. Stephen, I think -- this is Mark. So there's 2 pieces to that. I think you were asking how much -- how many customers book while on board? Is that correct?

是的。斯蒂芬，我想——這是馬克。所以有2件。我想你問的是多少——有多少客戶在船上預訂？那是對的嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. So I don't think we've disclosed that but, obviously, we have very solid programs under our CruiseNext program, where we are able to secure forward bookings but we don't give publicly those numbers. In terms of the working capital, the way we're thinking about it is, look, we've -- one of the positive signs that we've seen is we've seen a significant inflow of new bookings and new cash but as well as customers with existing bookings. And while we are now in the process of obviously refunding quite a few customers their advanced bookings, we believe that in the next 30 to 60 days, we are going to be working capital positive as a result of the new and existing cash that's coming in from those bookings. So you will see it. There is going to be a little bit of a slow ramp-up to that. But again, in the next 30 to 60 days, we see a positive working capital from that.

是的。所以我認為我們沒有披露這一點，但顯然，我們在 CruiseNext 計劃下有非常可靠的計劃，我們能夠確保提前預訂，但我們不會公開這些數字。就營運資金而言，我們正在考慮的方式是，看，我們已經 - 我們看到的積極跡象之一是我們已經看到大量新預訂和新現金流入，但隨著以及已有預訂的客戶。雖然我們現在顯然正在退還不少客戶的提前預訂，但我們相信，在接下來的 30 到 60 天內，由於新的和現有的現金流入，我們的營運資本將是積極的從那些預訂中。所以你會看到它。將會有一點緩慢的增長。但同樣，在接下來的 30 到 60 天內，我們會從中看到積極的營運資金。

Our next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis from Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Wanted to go back to the comments you made, Frank, about the importance of customer confidence. You've recently brought on Scott Gottlieb as a consultant. Can you walk us through some of the new protocols that -- what they might look like to improve that confidence as potential customers consider cruising again and the safety aspect?

想回到你的評論，弗蘭克，關於客戶信心的重要性。您最近聘請了 Scott Gottlieb 作為顧問。您能否向我們介紹一些新協議 - 當潛在客戶考慮再次巡航和安全方面時，它們可能會提高信心嗎？

Look, I don't want to run what we're going to be developing. That is up to all the experts that we have put together. We think we've put together a very strong team. So it's first things first. The #1 gain consideration today is to get the CDC to lift a no-sale order. That's job 1. Can't go very far without that. And so we have to introduce a series, what I would refer to as robust and comprehensive series of protocols that gives the CDC confidence that the environment onboard a cruise ship is healthy.

看，我不想運行我們將要開發的東西。這取決於我們召集的所有專家。我們認為我們已經組建了一支非常強大的團隊。所以這是第一件事。今天的第一大收穫是讓 CDC 解除禁售令。那是工作1。沒有它就走不了多遠。所以我們必須引入一系列，我稱之為強大而全面的一系列協議，讓 CDC 相信游輪上的環境是健康的。

And then once we do that, we have to communicate whatever those protocols may be to the traveling public and bring -- and give them the same confidence that we were able to instill in the CDC. So it's a multipronged process. Similar submissions to the CDC will likely have to also take place around the world. The U.S. isn't the only country concerned with the spread of COVID-19, they all are. We've seen some recent cracks in the opening, if you will, of what's happening in the EU. They have a more unified plan in place to gradually reopen borders and therefore tourism. So that's very helpful and encouraging.

然後，一旦我們這樣做了，我們就必須將這些協議可能是什麼傳達給旅行的公眾並帶來——並給他們同樣的信心，就像我們能夠灌輸給 CDC 一樣。所以這是一個多管齊下的過程。向 CDC 提交的類似文件可能也必須在世界各地進行。美國不是唯一一個擔心 COVID-19 傳播的國家，他們都是。如果你願意的話，我們已經看到最近在歐盟發生的事情上出現了一些裂痕。他們制定了更統一的計劃，逐步重新開放邊境，從而重新開放旅遊業。所以這是非常有幫助和鼓舞人心的。

But this will take some time. We want to do this right, Harry. This is not an exercise of optics. This is not an exercise of, let's get away with the minimum required. I want to do everything humanly possible within the bounds of what technology offers us today to be able to look my own family in the eye and say, "You are safe to go onboard our cruise ships." And until we do that, respective of what the CDC or anybody else might say, we're not going to operate. We want to make sure that we preserve and enhance the equity value of our 3 brands, and you're not going to do that if you have outbreaks of disease on board. So it's still too early to talk about specifics but know that everything is on the table to make sure that we can provide that health, security and confidence among all stakeholders.

但這需要一些時間。我們想把這件事做好，哈利。這不是光學練習。這不是一個練習，讓我們擺脫最低要求。我想在今天的技術為我們提供的範圍內做一切人類可能的事情，以便能夠看著我自己的家人並說：“你可以安全地登上我們的遊輪。”在我們這樣做之前，無論疾病預防控制中心或其他任何人可能會說什麼，我們都不會運作。我們希望確保我們保留和提高我們 3 個品牌的資產價值，如果您在船上爆發疾病，您不會這樣做。因此，現在談論細節還為時過早，但要知道一切都擺在桌面上，以確保我們能夠為所有利益相關者提供健康、安全和信心。

Maybe a quick follow-up on the comment that Mark just made about working capital positive. Can you talk about your -- the expectations of how -- when you get -- when you begin to market again, when you get 2 or 3 ships in the water, is that likely to lift the velocity of bookings as customers actually feel confident that they can set itineraries? And Mark, maybe you can comment on how you get to maybe a 30- to 60-day narrowing of that working capital gap, and whether or not just by setting those itineraries is really the primary catalyst for that.

也許是對馬克剛剛對營運資本積極的評論的快速跟進。您能否談談您對如何獲得的期望，當您再次開始營銷時，當您在水中獲得 2 或 3 艘船時，這可能會提高預訂速度，因為客戶實際上感到自信他們可以設置行程嗎？馬克，也許你可以評論一下你是如何在 30 到 60 天內縮小營運資金缺口的，以及僅僅通過設置這些行程是否真的是主要的催化劑。

Yes. I think -- so first, let me be clear that since we've shut down, and I'll reference the month of April, we have taken a significant amount of new cash bookings and collected a significant amount of advanced ticket sales. And that is during a period where we had a horrific news flow and we had essentially 0 marketing in the market. And that continues through May and it continues to increase. So I think you're absolutely right. To the extent when we can actually get voyages on sale and we actually start to really spend a little bit more marketing dollars, I think you're going to see that flywheel spin even quicker.

是的。我認為 - 首先，讓我明確一點，自從我們關閉以來，我將參考 4 月份，我們已經接受了大量的新現金預訂，並收集了大量的預售票。那是在我們有一個可怕的新聞流的時期，我們在市場上的營銷基本上是 0。這種情況一直持續到五月，而且還在繼續增加。所以我認為你是完全正確的。當我們實際上可以出售航程並且我們實際上開始真正花費更多的營銷資金時，我認為您會看到飛輪旋轉得更快。

But even without that, and again, that's what's important and why we're so confident here is that we continue to take in a significant amount of cash today. And so it is not our working capital -- my working capital comments are not dependent on us saying that we have to announce an itinerary in 1 month or 2 months or 3 months. That will help and that will help accelerate but it is not dependent upon that. So again, it just continues to demonstrate with the new cash coming in, the resiliency of this industry.

但即使沒有這一點，這也是重要的，為什麼我們在這裡如此有信心，因為我們今天繼續吸收大量現金。所以這不是我們的營運資金——我的營運資金評論並不依賴於我們說我們必須在 1 個月或 2 個月或 3 個月內宣布行程。這將有所幫助，這將有助於加速，但它並不依賴於此。因此，隨著新資金的湧入，它只是繼續證明這個行業的彈性。

And consumers are smart. They understand that there will be solutions. We are seeing customers come back. They're booking, obviously, not to the volumes that we would like to see in a normal environment. But consumers know this product's going to be there and that they have confidence in it. So bottom line is that will help but it is definitely not dependent on that.

消費者很聰明。他們明白會有解決方案。我們看到客戶回來了。顯然，他們預訂的數量不是我們希望在正常環境中看到的數量。但是消費者知道這個產品會在那裡並且他們對它有信心。所以底線是這會有所幫助，但它絕對不依賴於此。

Well, that's a positive statement relative to the negative press that you see in the media these days. Good luck with that.

嗯，相對於你現在在媒體上看到的負面新聞，這是一個積極的聲明。祝你好運。

Our next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

This is probably for both of you, Frank and Mark. Just question/ clarification on your booking commentary because it seems to have moved around over the past few weeks and we've just been getting a lot of questions on that. So when you filed your 8-K on April 27, and that data was as of April 17, you said the 2020 book position was meaningfully lower with pricing down low single digits. And then that changed in a following 8-K. You said that bookings as of 4/24 were meaningfully lower but pricing was now down mid-singles. And then for '21, the pricing commentary didn't change but the booking commentary did, so as of 4/17, your book position was flat. And then at 4/24, it was slightly lower. In both cases, pricing remained down to single digits. And then in this release, there wasn't really a lot of color on the booking commentary. So just trying to get an idea overall about the trends because just based on that, it seems like they're getting worse. But also like is it even meaningful, right? So like how much of an indication do you think it really gives us for pricing and bookings once cruising actually opens up?

這可能是為你們倆準備的，弗蘭克和馬克。只需對您的預訂評論提出問題/澄清，因為它似乎在過去幾週內發生了變化，我們剛剛收到了很多關於此的問題。因此，當您在 4 月 27 日提交 8-K 並且該數據是截至 4 月 17 日的數據時，您說 2020 年的賬面頭寸顯著降低，價格下降了個位數。然後在接下來的 8-K 中發生了變化。你說截至 4 月 24 日的預訂量顯著降低，但現在價格在中單下降。然後對於 21 年，定價評論沒有改變，但預訂評論卻改變了，所以截至 4 月 17 日，您的預訂位置持平。然後在 4/24，它略低。在這兩種情況下，定價都保持在個位數。然後在這個版本中，預訂評論並沒有太多色彩。所以只是試圖對趨勢有一個整體的了解，因為僅僅基於此，它們似乎變得更糟了。但也喜歡它甚至有意義，對吧？那麼，一旦巡航實際開放，您認為它真正為我們提供了多少指示定價和預訂？

So Felicia, as time goes on, remember, we started the year in an incredibly better book position than any other time. We had a huge lead. We had a huge lead at the end of February. And as the COVID-19 pandemic has worked its way through the booking process, we're taking less bookings than we were this time last year. We're still taking bookings, as Mark said. It's encouraging to see how much bookings we're taking, given that the entire sales and marketing apparatus is shut down that we're working virtually. The travel agents, which still make up the majority of our business, is not at full strength either.

所以，Felicia，隨著時間的推移，請記住，我們在今年開始時的書籍狀況比以往任何時候都好得多。我們取得了巨大的領先優勢。我們在二月底取得了巨大的領先優勢。隨著 COVID-19 大流行在預訂過程中發揮作用，我們的預訂量比去年這個時候要少。正如馬克所說，我們仍在接受預訂。鑑於我們正在虛擬工作的整個銷售和營銷機構都關閉了，看到我們接受了多少預訂是令人鼓舞的。仍然占我們業務大部分的旅行社也沒有全力以赴。

But as time goes on and we take on less bookings in the current period or periods than prior year, you're going to see a deficit being built over time as we continue to be shut down and not until we reopen all the sales and marketing activities and the travel agents reopen for business, et cetera, would you see a pivotal acceleration of new business that hopefully gets us back to a rate that allows us to sail full. So over time, if things continue the way they are today, over time, the commentary will be that we are falling behind to where we were this time last year because we are taking less bookings today than we did a year ago.

但隨著時間的推移，我們在當前一個或多個時期的預訂量比上一年少，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續關閉，你會看到赤字不斷增加，直到我們重新開放所有銷售和營銷活動和旅行社重新營業等等，您是否會看到新業務的關鍵加速，這有望使我們恢復到可以讓我們滿載而歸的速度。所以隨著時間的推移，如果事情繼續像今天這樣，隨著時間的推移，評論將是我們落後於去年這個時候的水平，因為我們今天的預訂量比一年前要少。

Okay, that makes sense. And then just to clarify something you said earlier because you said it very fast. Just that -- because we were talking about the historical booking patterns for '21 and you're saying, I think that was in terms of how much is booked in '21 in the high teens. So I think you said 17%, 18%, 19%. Did I hear that right?

好吧，這是有道理的。然後只是為了澄清你之前所說的一些事情，因為你說得很快。就是這樣——因為我們談論的是 21 年的歷史預訂模式，而你說的是，我認為這是在 21 年的青少年時期預訂了多少。所以我認為你說的是 17%、18%、19%。我沒聽錯嗎？

No, I think that was a reference to say when we look at our historical trends, it was based on calendar years '17 through '20.

不，我認為這是一個參考，當我們查看我們的歷史趨勢時，它是基於 17 年到 20 年的日曆年。

Yes, not a percentage.

是的，不是百分比。

Okay. So -- but if we look at -- got you. If we look at normal historical booking patterns though just for the industry in general, I think this time this year, the following year is somewhere around 20%, 25% booked. So is that the metric when you're staying in line with historical patterns?

好的。所以 - 但如果我們看看 - 得到你。如果我們只看整個行業的正常歷史預訂模式，我認為今年這個時候，下一年大約有 20% 到 25% 的預訂。那麼，當您與歷史模式保持一致時，這是衡量標準嗎？

We won't comment as to your high-teen 25% because we typically don't comment on where our book position is for the following year at this early stage. But we are comparing where we are right now for '21 compared to where we were right now a year ago for '20 and compared to what we call the historical range, which includes 2017, '18, '19.

我們不會評論您的高 25%，因為在這個早期階段，我們通常不會評論我們下一年的賬面位置。但是我們正在比較我們現在在 21 年的位置與一年前在 20 年的位置，並與我們所謂的歷史範圍（包括 2017 年、18 年和 19 年）進行比較。

Okay. And then just on your comment that the full fleet could return in 5 to 6 months, I was just wondering, is that based on customer surveys you're doing now and the booking curve? And do you think you'll be sailing at historical occupancy levels? Or does that really depend on kind of some of the regulations that will be in place?

好的。然後就您的評論說完整的機隊可能會在 5 到 6 個月內返回，我只是想知道，這是基於您現在正在進行的客戶調查和預訂曲線嗎？你認為你會在歷史入住率水平上航行嗎？還是這真的取決於將要實施的某些規定？

Yes. The return to service of a phased approach of roughly 5 vessels per month is what we believe we operationally could handle in terms of bringing back the ship from cold lay-up, including re-crewing the vessels, et cetera. And so that -- given that we have 28 vessels, if you bring back an average of 5 vessels a month, it's going to take about 6 months to get all ships back operating. Now that assumes that the itineraries that these ships would operate are available for operations. And so it could be that if ship #19 is operating a certain itinerary and that itinerary is not open or certain key ports in that itinerary are not open then maybe that, that vessel has to stay late up longer periods of time.

是的。每月大約 5 艘船的分階段恢復服務是我們認為我們在運營上可以處理的，將船舶從冷擱置狀態恢復，包括重新船員等。所以 - 鑑於我們有 28 艘船，如果你平均每個月帶回 5 艘船，那麼讓所有船隻恢復運營大約需要 6 個月。現在假設這些船隻將運營的行程可用於運營。因此，如果 19 號船正在運行某個行程並且該行程未開放，或者該行程中的某些關鍵港口未開放，那麼這可能是該船必須在更晚的時間段內停留的情況。

So the 6-month ramp-up assumes, more than anything else, our operational capability to ramp up and that the ports are open, has nothing to do with consumer demand because we believe consumer demand and the bookings that follow are based on our ability to market, travel agents being back open again, the whole industry being back in operation as opposed to sitting idle, et cetera.

因此，6 個月的增長最重要的是假設我們的運營能力以及港口開放與消費者需求無關，因為我們相信消費者需求和隨後的預訂是基於我們的能力就市場而言，旅行社重新開放，整個行業重新開始運營，而不是閒置，等等。

And on the occupancy side, do you think you'll be sailing at regular occupancy levels?

在入住率方面，你認為你會以正常的入住率航行嗎？

No, I don't think so one bit. I think it'll take time to ramp up loads. We don't know, for example, whether government agencies will require us to initially sail at less than 100%, even if there was demand to sail 100%. Just remember, the -- it's very easy and very quickly to dismantle the whole apparatus and that it takes time to refill the apparatus. So if the booking curve on average is 7 to 8 months, it's going to take at least that long without taking in consideration economic factors of how it may have affected the consumer to get the pipeline back to a full or near-full environment.

不，我一點也不這麼認為。我認為增加負載需要時間。例如，我們不知道政府機構是否會要求我們最初以低於 100% 的速度航行，即使有要求 100% 航行也是如此。請記住，拆卸整個設備非常容易且非常迅速，並且重新裝滿設備需要時間。因此，如果預訂曲線平均為 7 到 8 個月，那麼至少需要這麼長的時間，而不考慮它可能如何影響消費者的經濟因素，才能使管道恢復到滿負荷或接近滿負荷的環境。

And so this is going to take time. All we can do now is use some level of reasonable projections. But until we get back in the game and recognize that being back in the game could be different than it was before for the reasons I noted before, what are the protocols that we will have to operate by, what ports are open, et cetera, those are the biggest gating factors, not necessarily consumer demand. I believe that consumer demand in this industry and this -- these 3 brands of ours are very apt at marketing. The travel agents are well behind us. There is pent-up demand, let's not forget that. People only talk about the negative, but the fact that the industry has been shut down now over 4 months, there'll be pent-up demand. People will want to cruise again. And so all those are positive factors. But nothing takes the place of time and we have to be conscious of that.

所以這需要時間。我們現在所能做的就是使用某種程度的合理預測。但是直到我們回到遊戲中並認識到回到遊戲中可能會與以前不同，因為我之前提到的原因，我們必須操作的協議是什麼，開放的端口等等，這些是最大的門控因素，不一定是消費者需求。我相信這個行業的消費者需求以及我們這三個品牌非常擅長營銷。旅行社遠遠落後於我們。有被壓抑的需求，我們不要忘記這一點。人們只談論負面，但這個行業現在已經關閉了四個多月的事實，會有被壓抑的需求。人們會想再次巡航。所以所有這些都是積極因素。但是沒有什麼可以代替時間，我們必須意識到這一點。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ivan Feinseth from Tigress Financial.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Tigress Financial 的 Ivan Feinseth。

I have just 2 quick questions. Were you able to take advantage of the drop in oil that we saw in April? Because you had a slide in the appendix shows oil prices just at the end of March. And my other question is, the people who are booking, are they booking -- are you getting bookings from people who are within driving distance to the ship they're booking on? Or are you still -- are you seeing people who are booking also going to fly to get to the port -- the ship that he's booking on?

我只有 2 個簡單的問題。您是否能夠利用我們在 4 月看到的油價下跌？因為您在附錄中有一張幻燈片顯示了 3 月底的油價。我的另一個問題是，正在預訂的人，他們是否正在預訂 - 你是否從他們正在預訂的船的駕車距離之內的人那裡獲得預訂？還是您仍然-您是否看到預訂的人也將飛往港口-他預訂的船？

I'll take your second question and Mark will answer your question about fuel. I thought somebody would ask me this type of question so I looked into it. For the Ocean and Regent brand, their #1 itinerary in terms of demand for Q1, early Q2 is Japan, it's Dubai, several of the World Cruise segment. So therefore, you have to fly there. And so this notion that people aren't going to want to cruise to faraway places or exotic destinations, what we're seeing is defying that. So we're not seeing any particular area of strength other than these Japanese itineraries, these World Cruise segments that are sold out literally. No particular destination is performing particularly well or particularly bad. People are booking and people are canceling sailings in the future at the pro rata rate that we have those itineraries available either. I'll let Mark answer the question about fuel.

我會回答你的第二個問題，馬克會回答你關於燃料的問題。我以為有人會問我這種類型的問題，所以我調查了一下。對於 Ocean 和 Regent 品牌，就第一季度的需求而言，他們排名第一的行程是日本，第二季度初是日本，它是迪拜，幾個世界郵輪部分。因此，您必須飛往那裡。因此，人們不想乘船前往遙遠的地方或異國目的地的這種觀念，我們所看到的卻是在挑戰這一點。因此，除了這些日本行程之外，我們沒有看到任何特定的優勢領域，這些世界遊輪航段實際上已經售罄。沒有哪個目的地表現特別好或特別差。人們正在預訂，人們正在以我們提供這些行程的按比例取消未來的航行。我會讓馬克回答關於燃料的問題。

So yes, we did take advantage of some of the recent fuel pricing and opportunistically layered on some hedges for '22 and '23. We didn't do anything for the remainder of 2020, obviously, because we're already 68% hedged for the back half of the year. And really, the big question is when are we going to be able to restart. So we didn't want to do anything there and we continue to look at 2021. So we -- now that we have our capital raise behind us, we will continue to focus on that. And again, from an opportunistic standpoint where it makes sense, we will enter that market.

所以，是的，我們確實利用了最近的一些燃料定價，並在 22 年和 23 年的一些對沖機會上進行了分層。顯然，我們在 2020 年剩餘時間內沒有做任何事情，因為我們已經在今年下半年進行了 68% 的對沖。實際上，最大的問題是我們什麼時候能夠重新開始。所以我們不想在那裡做任何事情，我們繼續關注 2021 年。所以我們——現在我們已經籌集到資金，我們將繼續關注這一點。再一次，從機會主義的角度來看，這是有意義的，我們將進入那個市場。

Just one other quick question. In the fact that some of your -- like Regent Cruises include plane tickets and you have had promotions in the past that include airfare, do you think there's an opportunity to work with the airlines who, unfortunately, like your industry have been unfairly hurt by this to get a deal on plane tickets that you could help market in the future to people who want -- who cruise but don't live close to the ports?

只是另一個快速的問題。事實上，你的一些——比如 Regent Cruises 包括機票，並且你過去曾進行過包括機票在內的促銷活動，你認為有機會與不幸的是，像你的行業一樣受到不公平傷害的航空公司合作這是為了獲得機票交易，您可以在未來幫助向那些想要航行但不住在港口附近的人推銷？

We definitely believe that airfares in the near to -- in the next 6 to 12 months will be lower than usual so it will be a tailwind to cost. And we'll look to do more and more promotions, including air on itineraries that require that, yes.

我們絕對相信，未來 6 到 12 個月內的機票價格將低於往常，因此這將是成本的順風車。而且我們將尋求進行越來越多的促銷活動，包括需要這樣做的行程中的空氣，是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brandt Montour。

Just one for me. Based on the internal scenarios that you're running for load and for price and assuming you can't start sailing in August, roughly how much of your fleet do you think needs to be in the water to break even on an EBITDA basis?

只給我一個。根據您為負載和價格而運行的內部情景，並假設您無法在 8 月開始航行，您認為您的船隊大致需要多少水才能在 EBITDA 基礎上實現收支平衡？

Yes. Brent, this is Mark. So again, I think there's 2 ways to think about this, right? In terms of -- if you look at our historical EBITDA margins, they're about 30%, so that kind of gives you upwards of 30%. That kind of gives you how much -- whether it's revenue or a combination of costs we can reduce and you could translate that into a percentage of fleet. But then it depends on whether or not the ships are full or operating at reduced load. But as Frank had said earlier, our concern right now is not, are we operating in a positive EBITDA or a negative EBITDA? We are -- we need to gain momentum. We need to get ships in the water to accelerate the product awareness and get that ATS cash flywheel going again. And that's what we're focused on for the next 6 to 8 months.

是的。布倫特，這是馬克。再說一次，我認為有兩種方法可以考慮這個問題，對吧？就 - 如果您查看我們歷史上的 EBITDA 利潤率，它們約為 30%，因此您可以獲得超過 30% 的收益。這種給你多少 - 無論是收入還是我們可以減少的成本組合，你可以將其轉化為車隊的百分比。但這取決於船舶是滿載還是減載運行。但正如弗蘭克之前所說，我們現在擔心的不是，我們的 EBITDA 是正值還是負值？我們是——我們需要獲得動力。我們需要讓船隻下水，以加快產品意識，讓 ATS 現金飛輪再次運轉。這就是我們未來 6 到 8 個月的重點。

So there's not a magic number of ships because there's just too many dynamics between the pricing and the load and then what the spend is. So I will tell you that we -- obviously, we don't want to run the business at a loss but we will have to run the business at a loss for the next few months, but it's more importantly about getting that cash flywheel going again. So...

因此，船舶的數量並不多，因為定價和負載之間存在太多的動態關係，然後是支出。所以我會告訴你，我們——顯然，我們不想虧本經營業務，但我們將不得不在接下來的幾個月裡虧本經營業務，但更重要的是讓現金飛輪運轉起來再次。所以...

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

Mark, let me ask the working capital question a little bit differently and I hope this makes sense. But you guys have indicated this morning that -- I don't remember which adjective you used but a good bit of the 2021 bookings are new or unique bookings. So after the first wave of refunds that have already occurred, is it fair to say that for every dollar you are refunding now, you're bringing in a new dollar for an advanced booking? Or is that ratio still tilted way more toward a net cash outflow?

馬克，讓我以不同的方式問營運資金問題，我希望這是有道理的。但是你們今天早上已經表示——我不記得你使用了哪個形容詞，但 2021 年的預訂中有很大一部分是新的或獨特的預訂。因此，在第一波退款已經發生之後，是否可以公平地說，您現在每退款一美元，您就為提前預訂帶來了新的一美元？還是這個比率仍然更傾向於淨現金流出？

Yes. I would say looking at it today, there's still -- it is still definitely weighted towards a net cash outflow. And what I was referring to earlier is that when we look over the course of the next 60 days, by the end of that 60-day period, we believe that ratio would flip to a positive. And that's just a matter of timing, and again, given the amount of refunds that we are implementing as a result of the canceled voyages. So again, that's -- I would -- we anticipate in the next 60 days that, that is a positive ratio. But I will tell you, again, it's very encouraging that we are substantially offsetting those refunds with that new cash coming in, and that's where we definitely see some of the green shoots of this industry.

是的。我會說今天看它，仍然有 - 它仍然肯定會加權淨現金流出。我之前提到的是，當我們回顧接下來的 60 天，到 60 天結束時，我們相信這個比率會轉為正數。這只是時間問題，同樣，考慮到我們因取消航次而實施的退款金額。再說一次，這是 - 我會 - 我們預計在接下來的 60 天內，這是一個正比率。但我會再次告訴你，非常令人鼓舞的是，我們用新的現金來大幅抵消這些退款，這就是我們肯定看到這個行業的一些萌芽的地方。

Okay, got you. And then second question, I think it might be for Frank or you, Mark. But I assume you guys have run all kinds of scenarios as to what the business looks like as it comes back online. And can you kind of help us think about the time lines you guys are kind of projecting or expecting that we might be looking at in order for you guys to return to some kind of profitability level, whether that's a 2019 level or whether that's a 2018 level? Anything like that would be pretty helpful as well.

好的，明白了。然後是第二個問題，我想這可能是給弗蘭克或你的，馬克。但我假設你們已經運行了各種場景，了解業務重新上線後的樣子。您能否幫助我們考慮一下你們計劃或期望我們可能正在考慮的時間線，以便你們回到某種盈利水平，無論是 2019 年的水平還是 2018 年的水平等級？任何類似的東西也會很有幫助。

So let's start with 2020. 2020 is a wasted year. At a minimum, the industry is going to go the entire Q2 without a penny of revenue, impossible to overcome. Depending on how quickly we can reopen and whether, in our case, for example, can we execute on the plan that I laid out where we bring back the fleet gradually over a 6-month period. So pick a date. But just for argument's sake, pick October 1 as the first start date, and I only pick October 1, don't read much more into what except that it's beginning of a quarter. And you figure that we won't be fully operational until the end of Q1 of '21. And during that time, you are ramping up your marketing, travel agents hopefully around the world, especially in the U.S., coming back to work. The booking curve traditionally is 7, 8 months.

所以讓我們從 2020 年開始。2020 年是浪費的一年。至少，該行業將在整個第二季度沒有一分錢的收入，這是無法克服的。取決於我們重新開放的速度，以及在我們的情況下，例如，我們是否可以執行我制定的計劃，在 6 個月內逐步恢復機隊。所以選擇一個日期。但只是為了爭論，選擇 10 月 1 日作為第一個開始日期，而我只選擇 10 月 1 日，除了它是一個季度的開始之外，不要再閱讀更多內容。而且您認為我們要到 21 年第一季度末才能全面投入運營。在那段時間裡，你正在加強你的營銷，希望世界各地的旅行社，尤其是美國的旅行社，恢復工作。預訂曲線傳統上是 7、8 個月。

You put all those factors to work and what you end up with is a very challenging period of time through Q1, getting better in Q2, every subsequent sequential quarter is better, whether you get back to full operation, full load factor, full pricing sometime in '22, I personally don't believe. I think the runway will be longer. But '21 will be a transition year. And then you can start the rebuilding in earnest in '22 forward. And whether you get back to 2019 levels in late '22 or in '23, and if you're really pessimistic, in '24, there's so many details involved.

您將所有這些因素都發揮作用，您最終會遇到一個非常具有挑戰性的時期，直到第一季度，在第二季度變得更好，隨後的每個連續季度都變得更好，無論您何時恢復全面運營、滿負荷率、全面定價在'22，我個人不相信。我認為跑道會更長。但 21 年將是一個過渡年。然後你可以在 22 年開始認真地重建。無論你是在 22 年末還是 23 年回到 2019 年的水平，如果你真的很悲觀，在 24 年，涉及的細節太多了。

Steve, I know you know this, the normal -- the things we normally talk about are out the door. We're talking about just -- it's almost like relaunching a company from scratch when you have the entire fleet shut down and you don't know when you're going to be able to start again because it's not up to you. It's up to public health officials and governments around the world. It's very difficult to predict with certainty revenue and EBITDA. As I said before, it's a building block. And the building block starts with when can we start to operate? When can we start marketing? Marketing is the seat of cash. Cash comes in 6, 7, 8 months later. That cash can be recognized as revenue and therefore then EBITDA. So we got to have patience. It took decades to build this industry. And in a matter of weeks, we dismantled it, and it's going to take not decades to build it up again but it's going to take a little time. And we just have to be patient. No one is more impatient than me. But I recognize that this is going to be a recovery effort that's going to take multiple quarters, perhaps multiple years to get back to the good old days of 2019.

史蒂夫，我知道你知道這一點，正常的——我們通常談論的事情都在外面。我們只是在談論 - 當您關閉整個機隊並且您不知道何時能夠重新開始時，這幾乎就像從頭開始重新啟動一家公司，因為這不取決於您。這取決於世界各地的公共衛生官員和政府。很難準確地預測收入和 EBITDA。正如我之前所說，它是一個構建塊。構建塊開始於我們什麼時候可以開始運營？我們什麼時候可以開始營銷？營銷是現金的所在地。現金在 6、7、8 個月後到來。該現金可以確認為收入，因此可以確認為 EBITDA。所以我們要有耐心。建立這個行業花了幾十年的時間。幾週之內，我們就拆除了它，重新建立起來不需要幾十年，但需要一點時間。我們只需要耐心等待。沒有人比我更不耐煩了。但我認識到，這將是一項恢復工作，需要多個季度，也許是多年才能回到 2019 年的美好時光。

Our final question then for today comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel from Cleveland Research.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Vince Ciepiel。

So it sounds like your plan is, if things go right, maybe 5 to 6 months of reactivation and reactivating the full 100% of your fleet. I know you have a bit relatively younger age in your fleet versus the industry. But could you comment on what percent, if at all, do you think the industry may lay up or retire or scrap through this pandemic?

所以聽起來你的計劃是，如果事情進展順利，可能需要 5 到 6 個月的重新啟動並重新啟動全部 100% 的機隊。我知道與行業相比，您的機隊年齡相對較小。但是，您能否評論一下，如果有的話，您認為該行業可能會在這場大流行中擱置、退休或報廢嗎？

Yes. I can't speak for the industry at large with any kind of specifics. As you pointed out, we have a very young fleet so none of our vessels are remotely eligible, if you will, for scrapping or for anything else. I do believe in a macro environment, given what we are facing, that you're going to find that certain vessels will be retired, vessels that might have been marginal performers in good times may not be worthy, so to speak, of staying in service. So you might see that. You might see new delivery.

是的。我不能用任何細節來代表整個行業。正如您所指出的，我們擁有一支非常年輕的船隊，因此我們的船隻都沒有資格進行報廢或其他任何事情。鑑於我們所面臨的情況，我確實相信在宏觀環境中，您會發現某些船舶將退役，在好時代可能表現不佳的船舶可能不值得，可以這麼說，留在服務。所以你可能會看到。您可能會看到新的交付。

I remember all you guys being so worried about capacity increases and over the last couple of years that it was 5% or 6%, and it was a couple of points higher than the historical average. And oh my God, oh my God, and you saw how the industry was able to easily digest new capacity coming online, and we all had the best years of our history. But I do believe that certain vessels that may be scheduled for delivery in the next 12 to 18 months may be delayed and that will help the capacity situation.

我記得你們所有人都非常擔心產能增加，在過去的幾年裡，產能增加了 5% 或 6%，比歷史平均水平高出幾個點。哦，我的上帝，哦，我的上帝，你看到了這個行業如何能夠輕鬆地消化新的產能上線，我們都度過了我們歷史上最好的幾年。但我確實相信，某些計劃在未來 12 至 18 個月內交付的船舶可能會延遲，這將有助於運力狀況。

And different companies will have different plans on how to bring back their fleets. One of the things that I've been telling folks that I usually don't say is that I'm glad I only have 28 ships. Usually, I want more ships. That's why we have 9 vessels on order because when you have what you have and they're all full and you're making lots of money with them, you want more vessels. But in this environment, I'm glad I have less vessels.

不同的公司將有不同的計劃來恢復他們的機隊。我一直告訴人們但我通常不會說的一件事是我很高興我只有 28 艘船。通常，我想要更多的船。這就是為什麼我們要訂購 9 艘船的原因，因為當你擁有你所擁有的並且它們都已經滿了並且你用它們賺了很多錢時，你想要更多的船。但在這種環境下，我很高興我的船隻更少。

So look, like in many industries that are facing the kind of challenges we're facing, there's going to be survivors and there's going to be some that don't survive and there's going to be success stories and failures. We think we're in very, very good position, given our liquidity profile, given the quality of our assets, our go-to-market strategy, our management team. So we feel like we will be one of the success stories that will write the history books on COVID-19. We'll see where the chips fall for everybody else.

所以看起來，就像在許多面臨我們所面臨的挑戰的行業中，會有倖存者，會有一些無法生存，會有成功的故事和失敗的故事。鑑於我們的流動性狀況、資產質量、上市策略和管理團隊，我們認為我們處於非常非常好的位置。因此，我們覺得我們將成為寫下 COVID-19 歷史書籍的成功案例之一。我們將看到其他人的籌碼落在哪裡。

Thank you, operator. I look forward to our next call in 90 days or so. Things will, I'm sure, will be very, very different. I hope they're different for the best. In the meantime, I hope you all stay healthy and continue fighting the good fight. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，接線員。我期待著我們在 90 天左右後的下一次電話會議。我敢肯定，情況會非常非常不同。我希望他們是最好的不同。同時，希望大家身體健康，繼續打好仗。非常感謝你。

Thank you very much, everybody.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。