Match Group Inc (MTCH) 2001 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and thank you for holding. All participants will be able to listen-only until the question and answer session of today's call. This conference is being recorded at the request of the USA Network State. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Victor Kaufman, Vice Chairman of the USA Network State. Sir, you may begin.

早安，感謝各位的耐心等待。在今天的問答環節開始前，所有與會者都將只能收聽。本次會議應美國網路州的要求進行錄音。如有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。現在，我謹介紹本次會議的主持人，美國網路州副主席維克多·考夫曼先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator and good afternoon, everyone. Before we get started, our lawyers once again insisted that I say that we may discuss on this call, our outlook for future performance. There are of course, risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and our results could be materially different from what we currently anticipate. Joining on the call is Barry Diller, our Chairman and CEO, Mike Sileck, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Roger Clark, Vice President of Investor Relations. We had a very strong first quarter across the board. We achieved this in one of the most difficult economic environments in the last decade. Our EBITDA for our operating businesses grew by 16%, while revenue grew by 17%. Virtually, all of our operating businesses have done double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, and many hosted record revenue increases. There were some challenges in the first quarter, but I think we dealt with them extremely well, the importance I highlight, and a point we believe that few companies can make. USA has consistently exceeded expectations. We are very proud of that continuity. This is the 20th straight quarter that we have beaten estimates; indeed our entire history. Equally important, is that we believe that we can continue this precedent well into the future. With this mind, we have reconfirmed our overall guidance for this year and next, which overall is consistent with our goals to grow at least on the EBITDA line by more than 20% well into the future.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。在正式開始之前，我們的律師再次強調，我可能會在本次電話會議上討論我們對未來業績的展望。當然，前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們的實際業績可能與我們目前的預期有重大差異。參加本次電話會議的有：董事長兼執行長巴里‧迪勒 (Barry Diller)、資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Sileck 以及投資者關係副總裁羅傑‧克拉克 (Roger Clark)。我們第一季整體表現非常強勁。我們在過去十年中最艱難的經濟環境下之一取得了這樣的成績。我們經營業務的 EBITDA 成長了 16%，營收成長了 17%。幾乎所有營運業務的收入和 EBITDA 都實現了兩位數的成長，許多業務的收入更是創下了歷史新高。第一季確實面臨一些挑戰，但我認為我們應對得非常出色，這一點我特別強調，也是我們認為很少公司能夠做到的。美國業務一直超乎預期。我們為這種持續性感到非常自豪。這已是我們連續第20個季度超出預期，事實上，這是我們公司歷史上連續第20個季度超出預期。同樣重要的是，我們相信能夠將這良好勢頭延續到未來。基於此，我們重申了今明兩年的業績指引，該指引與我們未來至少實現EBITDA成長20%以上的目標一致。

Now for some specifics. On the entertainment side, USA Network had a record quarter in both revenue and profits. It grew EBITDA by 16%; on 10% higher revenue. Advertisement sales in USA grew in the mid-single digit, somewhat better than anticipated. We were able to use ____ 00:02:23 very intelligently to create a pricing for new cast sale. We actually turned down some cast sales because the pricing was not satisfactory to us. We are doing some business in the scatter market, which is obviously an increase from the fourth quarter. Our CPMs are flat to slightly down versus what we sold in the upfront, and down slightly to what the scatter market was last year. We believe this is basically consistent of overall with the generalized stem and cable networks. Of course, these are not levels that we find satisfactory. That said, the advertisement market overall is still very weak with only limited signs of life, and we do not expect any fast recovery. Fortunately for us, advertising only constitutes 15% of our revenues. We are essentially pleased with USA's momentum on the ratings front, inclined over a half a point over the last five months to tie for the number 1 position in February, and we think we have a really good chance to do the same for April. Our original and acquired movies like "The Teller" top rated network serials like Walker, Texas Ranger, and Jag, life sporting events like our 10 PGA Golf tournaments and the Masters, and special event programming like eco-challenge and the West Minister dog show, all performed near or above record levels during this period, which we believe goes extremely well for USA's future growth. And our prospects for developing new hit series have never been stronger. We have already announced unique new programming like Mark Brunette's combat machine, and a real cannibal run through the fall. SCIFI also grew extremely well; it grew by its EBITDA by 23% or 11% higher revenue. SCIFI's advertising revenue grew approximately at 10%, almost double the rate of increase at USA, which continues to verify the ongoing building strength of this great niche.

現在來說說具體情況。在娛樂方面，USA Network 的營收和利潤均創下季度新高。其 EBITDA 成長了 16%，營收成長了 10%。 USA 地區的廣告銷售額實現了中等個位數的成長，略好於預期。我們巧妙地利用了____ 00:02:23 為新演員銷售制定了定價策略。實際上，我們拒絕了一些演員銷售，因為定價並不令人滿意。我們在散播廣告市場也開展了一些業務，這顯然比第四季有所成長。我們的 CPM 與預售廣告相比持平或略有下降，也略低於去年散播廣告市場的水平。我們認為這與整個主流電視和有線電視網絡的整體情況基本一致。當然，這些水平並不令人滿意。儘管如此，廣告市場整體仍然非常疲軟，復甦跡像有限，我們預計不會很快復甦。幸運的是，廣告收入僅占我們總收入的 15%。我們對USA電視台的收視率成長動能非常滿意，過去五個月收視率上升超過0.5個百分點，在2月份並列第一，我們認為4月份也很有可能取得同樣的成績。在此期間，我們原創和引進的電影，例如《特勒》（The Teller），以及收視率最高的電視劇集，例如《德州巡警》（Walker, Texas Ranger）和《執法悍將》（Jag），還有精彩的體育賽事，例如我們轉播的10場PGA高爾夫錦標賽和美國大師賽，以及特別節目，例如生態挑戰賽和威斯敏斯特犬展，都取得了接近或超過歷史最高水平的收視成績，我們相信這將極大地促進USA電視台未來的發展。此外，我們開發新熱門影集的前景也從未如此光明。我們已經宣布了一些獨特的全新節目，例如馬克布魯內特的《戰鬥機器》（Combat Machine）以及一部將在秋季播出的「真正的食人族」主題劇集。科幻頻道（SCIFI）也取得了非常顯著的成長，其EBITDA成長了23%，營收成長了11%。科幻頻道的廣告收入成長了約 10%，幾乎是 USA 頻道成長率的兩倍，這繼續證明了這一偉大細分市場的持續成長勢頭。

To give you perspective on SCIFI CPM, they are also flat versus the upfront and slightly down versus last year's scatter. We do expect SCIFI's growth will continue to outpace the market overall, because of its spectacular distribution growth, because it has some of the strongest demos in all of the television. Studio 2 USA also had a very strong quarter with EBITDA up 23% and with record revenues, due in part to the success of worn out Special Victims Unit. POP Network pricing per hit one-hour drum is truly exploding and Studio is a big beneficiary of that pricing increase. At our electronic retailing unit, Asia's end's performance was decent. EBITDA was up by 5% on 8% higher revenues in the United States. These results were maybe even good when we you think about the very difficult economic environment that we have in terms of retail where their results are deteriorating to a significant extent. But, the numbers actually could have been even much better, had it not been for extremely tough accounts from last year's first quarter when we grew at 18%, and two specifics neither of which we believe are recurring. First, we had built up a significant excess inventory for the fourth quarter. Now, we had an extremely strong fourth quarter, but we anticipated even a stronger one, and were left with inventory that we needed to sell during the first quarter at reduced margin. Also, January sales were adversely affected by a brisk in Motor Retail discounting their product by up to 75%, probably the biggest discounting that Retail had ever gone through, which definitely and normally had an effect on impulse purchasing. We think that was a one-month event, and in fact our March and April sales increases are back at double-digit levels. As we have said many times, it is all by having the right product, and we seem to be at the stage where we really are getting to have that product right now. So overall, HSN business remains quite healthy now, and going forward and our EBITDA increase was limited by lower margins as I discussed, and by ever consistent commitment to invest a portion of our revenue growth to make our customer experience second to no one. www.HSN.com continues to do extremely well, increasing its sales by more than 300% and is on track to do over $100 million this year, which is significantly above even what we anticipated starting the year. Now, all of this is with virtually 0 customer acquisition costs. Internationally, HSN furthered its dominant position by continuing to grow in Germany by at least 20%, and expanding into three additional markets during the quarter. Our information and services group continues to be the group in our company that is growing at the fastest pace. Its operating businesses increased EBITDA by 25% on 33% higher revenue. The ticketing business had excellent results, growing revenues 17% to a record level demonstrating how it does not track with the economy, since consumers will give up buying other goods before they will give up their entertainment activities, especially out of the house. Also showing the recession resistant nature of our businesses is HRN, which continues to prosper both growing revenue and EBITDA by almost 100%. PRC showed strong growth, while many of its competitors were faltering. Perhaps most telling of our growth prospects is the record performance of our Internet Commerce Group, which achieved 89% revenue growth, and 70% EBITDA growth in the quarter. This group is comprised of our transactional commerce businesses on the Internet - HSN.com, HRN, Ticketmaster.com, and Match.com. On a combined basis, we expect this group to generate $750 million in revenues and $120 million in EBITDA this year, placing us second in profitability behind E-Bay in this area, something that we think is quite amazing. Finally, our balance sheet is extremely clean. We have major capital available to grow and we think there are many, many opportunities in the market place to accelerate our growth even more quickly and significantly into the future. So with that, we will take the questions, Operator.

為了讓您更清楚地了解科幻頻道的CPM情況，它與預售數據持平，但略低於去年同期水平。我們預計科幻頻道的成長將繼續超過整體市場，這得益於其驚人的發行成長，以及其在所有電視節目中擁有最強勁的觀眾群體。 Studio 2 USA本季業績也非常強勁，EBITDA成長23%，營收創歷史新高，這部分歸功於老牌影集《特殊受害者小組》（Special Victims Unit）的成功。 POP Network的單集一小時節目定價正在飆升，Studio 2 USA是此次價格上漲的主要受益者。在我們的電子零售部門，亞洲地區的業績表現尚可。 EBITDA成長5%，而美國地區的營收則成長了8%。考慮到當前零售業的嚴峻經濟情勢，這些業績或許還算不錯，因為零售業的業績正大幅下滑。但如果不是因為去年第一季我們成長了 18%，有兩個我們認為不會再次發生的具體問題，那麼實際數字可能會更好。首先，我們為第四季累積了大量庫存。第四季業績非常強勁，但我們預期會更好，因此需要在第一季以較低的利潤率售出剩餘庫存。此外，一月份的銷售額受到汽車零售業的衝擊，他們大幅降價，折扣高達75%，這可能是零售業有史以來最大的折扣力度，這無疑會抑制衝動消費。我們認為這只是一個月的現象，事實上，三月和四月的銷售成長已經恢復到兩位數水準。正如我們多次強調的，關鍵在於擁有合適的產品，而我們現在似乎正處於真正擁有合適產品的階段。因此，整體而言，HSN的業務目前依然非常健康。展望未來，正如我之前提到的，由於利潤率下降以及我們始終致力於將部分收入成長用於提升客戶體驗，我們的EBITDA成長將受到限制。 www.HSN.com 持續表現強勁，銷售額成長超過 300%，預計今年將突破 1 億美元大關，遠超年初預期。更令人驚訝的是，這一切都是在幾乎沒有獲客成本的情況下實現的。在國際市場，HSN 進一步鞏固了其領先地位，在德國的銷售額持續成長至少 20%，並在本季拓展至三個新的市場。我們的資訊和服務集團仍然是公司成長最快的集團。其營運業務的息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 成長了 25%，營收成長了 33%。票務業務表現卓越，營收成長 17%，創歷史新高，顯示票務業務的成長與經濟狀況並無關聯，因為消費者寧願放棄購買其他商品，也不會放棄娛樂活動，尤其是外出娛樂。 HRN 也體現了我們業務的抗衰退能力，其收入和 EBITDA 均實現了近 100% 的成長。 PRC 業務也表現出強勁成長，而許多競爭對手卻步履蹣跚。或許最能體現我們成長前景的是我們網路商務集團的創紀錄業績，該集團本季營收成長了 89%，EBITDA 成長了 70%。該集團由我們在網路上的交易型商務業務組成，包括 HSN.com、HRN、Ticketmaster.com 和 Match.com。我們預計該集團今年的總營收將達到7.5億美元，EBITDA將達到1.2億美元，在該領域的獲利能力僅次於eBay，位居第二，我們認為這非常了不起。此外，我們的資產負債表非常穩健。我們擁有充足的資金用於發展，我們認為市場上有許多機會可以讓我們在未來更快、更顯著地加速成長。那麼，接下來我們將回答各位的問題，主持人。

Thank you. At this time, we are ready to begin the formal question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press *1. You will be announced prior to asking your question. To withdraw your question, you may press the pound key. Once again, to ask a question, please press *1. One moment, please. Our first question comes from Mr. Victor Miller of Bear Stearns. Sir, you may ask your question.

謝謝。現在，我們準備開始正式的問答環節。如果您想提問，請按*1。提問前我們會通知您。如需撤回您的問題，請按井號鍵。再次提醒，提問請按*1。請稍等片刻。我們的第一個問題來自貝爾斯登公司的維克多·米勒先生。先生，請您提問。

Good morning Victor.

早上好，維克多。

Good morning Victor.

早上好，維克多。

Good morning, Roger. When you acquired HSN, SCIFI, even USA Networks had considerable offside than upside in terms of distribution and increased distribution seems to be an important stimulus of growth especially in slower times. Can you give us a sense of the where you have taken distribution since you acquired some of these major assets and how long it takes you to cover your initial investment in securing an expanding distribution? Thanks.

早安，羅傑。當您收購 HSN、SCIFI 甚至 USA Networks 時，在分銷方面都存在著相當大的下行風險，而擴大分銷管道似乎是推動成長的重要因素，尤其是在經濟低迷時期。您能否簡要介紹一下自收購這些重要資產以來，您在分銷管道方面取得了哪些進展？以及您需要多長時間才能收回在擴大分銷管道方面的初始投資？謝謝。

Actually, as you said, we have increased distribution quite significantly. USA's distribution has increased by over 50% in the last three years. It has been fully distributed during all that time, so all of that increase is really increased internal growth within cable systems with more and more people signing up for cables, and I think that we will continue to increase into the future. SCIFI's increase has been extraordinary in the last three years; we have increased our distribution by 50%. We still have some ways to go to before we distribute it, which we think we will achieve full distribution within the next two quarters of the year. In those areas in terms of USA and SCIFI, we will use an equation in terms of how long we have to be there, but even bigger than that, we get paid for every additional home that gets on so, we are building our revenue base and our revenue base that we think will continue to grow because we have locked in very long-term distribution arrangements with virtually all of the major MSO's to ensure USA and SCIFI's distribution well into the future at very significant increase. So, we think that goes well for the growth of those businesses. On the HSN side, we have grown distribution, I would say, over the last three years by about 25%. In that case, since we do pay cable to get distribution, the alternate retailing area is the only area that our net basis really pays cable. I mean, it probably takes somewhere between 12 months and two years to fully ramp up the value of those homes. So, I would say within 12 months, we would probably break-even on those new homes and we will get the full profitability within 24 months.

正如您所說，我們的發行量確實大幅成長。 USA頻道在過去三年成長了超過50%。在此期間，USA頻道一直保持全面覆蓋，因此，所有這些增長實際上都源於有線電視系統內部的增長，越來越多的人註冊了有線電視服務。我認為未來我們還會繼續成長。 SCIFI頻道在過去三年的成長尤為顯著，發行量增加了50%。雖然距離全面覆蓋還有一段路要走，但我們預計將在今年接下來的兩個季度內實現。對於USA頻道和SCIFI頻道，我們會根據覆蓋時間長短來計算成長幅度，但更重要的是，每增加一個家庭用戶，我們就會獲得相應的收入。因此，我們正在不斷擴大收入基礎，我們相信這個收入基礎會持續成長，因為我們幾乎與所有主要的MSO（多系統營運商）都簽訂了長期發行協議，以確保USA頻道和SCIFI頻道在未來很長一段時間內都能保持顯著增長。所以，我們認為這對這些業務的成長非常有利。就HSN而言，過去三年我們的通路成長了約25%。在這種情況下，由於我們需要付費給有線電視才能獲得分銷管道，因此，只有在其他零售區域，我們的淨收入才會真正用於支付有線電視費用。我的意思是，這些房屋的價值可能需要12個月到兩年的時間才能完全提升。因此，我認為在12個月內，我們可能就能在這些新房上實現收支平衡，並在24個月內實現完全盈利。

And what percent of your revenue now is derived from your subscription fees?

目前，您的收入中有多少百分比是來自訂閱費用？

I would say about 20%

我估計大約20%。

And how is the distribution of the newer cable assets going?

新的有線電視資產分配狀況如何？

We are actually ahead of schedule. We are intending that distribution to be primarily in the digital world where over 10 million homes are in TRIO and NWI, and we are in the process of starting to get distribution on prime, which we expect will quickly get to the levels of TRIO and NWI, and we will grow significantly.

實際上，我們的進度已經提早了。我們計劃主要在數位領域進行分發，TRIO 和 NWI 覆蓋超過 1000 萬個家庭，我們正在著手在 Prime 平台上進行分發，預計很快就能達到 TRIO 和 NWI 的水平，並且我們將實現顯著增長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Peter Mirsky of SG Cowen. You may ask your question

我是SG Cowen公司的Peter Mirsky先生。您可以提問。

Thank you. Victor you talked a couple of times about making opportunistic Internet acquisitions. Can you just talk where you stand on that, and secondly, on HSN, you mentioned the reasons for the margins being down, do you see that recovering through the rest of the year?

謝謝。維克多，你之前幾次提到抓住網路機會進行收購。你能談談你對此的看法嗎？其次，關於HSN，你提到了利潤率下降的原因，你認為今年剩餘時間利潤率會回升嗎？

Let me address the second question first and Mr. Diller will address the first question.

我先回答第二個問題，迪勒先生將回答第一個問題。

I will, hopefully.

希望如此。

Well, I think you will.

我想你會的。

Not so sure. Go ahead.

不太確定。你繼續。

On HSN margins yes, we think the margins will improve throughout the year. I think we will have a slight effect in the second quarter based on the kind of continuation of the final selling worth of some of these inventories, but we think significantly less than the first quarter. The margin in April is higher than it was in the first quarter, so we do think it is a temporary event, and we will clearly as the year goes on, we think maintain the margin that we have been at. The first part of the question related to Internet acquisition.

關於HSN的利潤率，我們認為全年利潤率都會有所提高。考慮到部分庫存最終售價的持續性，第二季利潤率可能會受到一些影響，但我們認為影響程度會遠低於第一季。四月份的利潤率高於第一季度，因此我們認為這只是暫時的，隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會保持目前的利潤率水準。問題的第一部分與網路收購有關。

Well, in Internet acquisitions, there is definitely opportunity out there and I would say there are 10-12 different entities that we, I would say, we are all over them with all sorts of both internal discussions and some external discussions. I would think that in the next, certainly six months, year, or so, that there were things that we would acquire for certain. It is obviously a period where the wheat separating from all the chaff, and we are in a great position obviously, because in this area, where our sensibility is as interactive retailers, and so what we look for, what we bring to it obviously is, I think, somewhat equally balanced with hopefully at the third piece being that we have got some the effectual of production sensibilities, which do play a role I think in interactivity, but the balance is really between the retailers and I think really understanding, as a core sensibility of this company just what interactivity is, so we will follow this opportunity out there and there are certainly things to acquire in big steps as well as the films and areas that we are in a little bit that we will probably be in deeper.

在網路收購領域，機會確實很多。我們目前關注著大約10到12家不同的公司，我們與它們進行了各種內部和外部的討論。我認為在接下來的六個月到一年左右的時間裡，我們肯定會完成一些收購。現在顯然是一個甄別良莠的時期，而我們顯然處於非常有利的位置，因為在這個領域，我們作為互動零售商的理念，以及我們為之帶來的價值，我認為兩者之間達到了某種平衡。此外，我們也擁有一些有效的製作理念，我認為這在互動領域中發揮著重要作用。但關鍵在於零售商和對互動本質的真正理解，這才是我們公司的核心理念。因此，我們將密切關注這些機會，並逐步推進收購，包括我們目前涉足的電影和其他領域，未來我們可能會更深入地參與其中。

There is also no question that like anything, there are very few really good ideas and so much junk got high promoted during the euphoria, so we think it is a great period for us in this area for those reasons, that is a little long, but that is the mode of right now.

毫無疑問，和任何事物一樣，真正的好點子寥寥無幾，而許多垃圾產品在狂熱時期卻被大肆宣傳。因此，我們認為，就目前而言，這是一個對我們來說非常棒的時期。雖然這段話有點長，但這就是現在的情況。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Ms. Kathy Sapheni of Prudential Securities. You may ask your question.

我是保德信證券的凱西‧薩菲尼女士。您可以提問。

Hi, I have two questions. First, with respect to the upcoming upfront market, I was wondering if you can give us your perspective on what your ... an update rather on what your expectations are for the cable upfront. And if you can give us some background in terms by what percent of inventory was felt about USA and SCIFI last year, and what sort of CPN increases you saw, and my second question is actually for Barry. Barry, the rumors are abound about Vivendi and Liberty Media talking about swapping their, Vivendi is swapping it's piece by piece stake for Liberty Media's has taken USA. Besides the financial benefits that USA shareholders might see with respect to the value that is put on the USA stake, what other benefits, you know, what positives or negatives could come off such a deal? Thank you.

您好，我有兩個問題。首先，關於即將到來的預售市場，我想請您談談您對有線電視預售市場的看法，或者說是最新情況以及您的預期。另外，能否提供一些背景信息，例如去年USA和SCIFI的庫存佔比是多少，以及您觀察到的CPN增長情況？我的第二個問題是問Barry的。 Barry，現在有許多傳言說Vivendi和Liberty Media正在討論互換股份，Vivendi將逐步用其持有的股份換取Liberty Media持有的USA股份。除了USA股東可能獲得的財務收益（即USA股份的價值提升）之外，這項交易還會帶來哪些其他好處，或哪些利弊？謝謝。

On the upfront in general, we think that overall there is a likelihood that it will be down, to predict the level which will be down is extremely hard at this point, but we do think that we will able to hold pricing during this period, and I think in part of the level of sellout may be lower as a result of choice on our side, as it is a desire on the side of the advertiser. In terms of sellout, last year, we sold at 65-70% on both USA and SCIFI and as I said, I think it probably will be slightly down this year.

總體而言，我們認為預售價格可能會下降。目前很難預測具體下降幅度，但我們相信能夠在此期間維持價格穩定。我認為部分原因在於我們自己以及廣告商的選擇，因此售罄率可能會降低。就售罄率而言，去年我們在USA和SCIFI頻道的售罄率都達到了65%-70%，正如我所說，我認為今年可能會略有下降。

Yeah, it is difficult to follow on that. Excuse me, on the upfront, I mean there is, of course, no chance to be off front can have positive increase, it is inconceivable, the question is, the question really is probably how flat, or how down is flat, or how flat is down and I think that you have seen all our results, I mean it is not disaster, but it cannot be that there are no conditions for anything called growth or euphoria on comparable previous year or probably a flat is not going to, I would say, upswing in it for sometime to come and that the issue for us is ... as it is for other people clearly is how to manage within that, and I think actually the last quarter shows that these three USA Network and SCIFI channel, that is achievable , so this has, kind of, overall been on advertising.

是的，這很難繼續下去。不好意思，就目前的情況來看，我的意思是，當然，不可能出現正面成長，這簡直不可思議。問題在於，真正的問題可能是，這種平穩到底有多低，或者說，這種低迷到底有多嚴重。我想您已經看到了我們所有的業績，我的意思是，這並非災難性的，但也不至於完全沒有增長或欣欣向榮的條件，與去年同期相比，這種平穩狀態可能在未來一段時間內都不會出現回升。對我們來說，問題在於……就像對其他人一樣，如何在這種情況下進行管理。我認為，實際上，上個季度的數據顯示，USA Network和SCIFI頻道這三個頻道是可以實現的，所以，總的來說，這主要取決於廣告收入。

As far as Vivendi Universal and Liberty Shares, there are no current conversations that are taking place for any sale of securities either way. So, there is nothing we need to talk about relative to that. The only thing that will happen in the in the future, probably dependent upon other transaction, yes, I think that both sides have looked that being really aware of their strategy on a long-term basis was right, Liberty is going through a period, over this next period now they will be detached from AT&T where it has gone probably on essentials. It is going to re-strategize its worldwide business and I think there are other tectonic moves that are taking place, as I said before, I think on a previous call in a general meeting, that a lot of things we think will happen in this next year, kind of, Geo political nature, that could have positive effects on USA and on its overhead so, you can make your specialization as easy as the next door, but you got to see some events take place before I think you will see anything else really happen as it relates that who owns our stock in terms of large pieces, and who does not.

就維旺迪環球和Liberty Shares而言，目前雙方均未就任何證券出售事宜進行任何諮詢。因此，我們無需就此進行任何討論。未來唯一可能發生的情況，或許取決於其他交易，我認為雙方都已意識到，著眼於長遠策略是正確的。 Liberty目前正處於轉型期，在接下來的這段時間裡，他們將從AT&T剝離，專注於核心業務。它將重新制定其全球業務策略，而且我認為還有其他一些重大舉措正在發生。正如我之前在一次股東大會電話會議上所說，我們認為明年將會發生很多事情，其中​​一些具有地緣政治性質，可能會對美國及其營運成本產生積極影響。因此，你可以像隔壁鄰居一樣輕鬆地進行專業化分工，但在真正看到其他事情發生之前，你必須看到一些事件發生，這與誰持有我們股票的大宗股份以及誰沒有持有大宗股份有關。

Mr. Richard Folatey 00:22:25 of Morgan Stanley, you may ask your question.

摩根士丹利的理查德·福拉蒂先生（00:22:25），您可以提問了。

Hi Barry. Following up from the question on the upfront, looking at a different side of this issue, for the first time, probably after 10 years, there seems to be a real schism in the entertainment industry and it seems that about half of the networks are saying we do not want to hold price, we want to maximize dollars, to get ambiguous sense of the equation. The other half are saying we want to hold CPM, we want to hold price per unit, we will sell that inventory. In your experience, have we ever had a split in the industry about how to handle the problem like that before and if we have had it, how is it generally resolved, and if not, which way do we head, I mean, after that, what you are saying down on pricing, and the internet are saying down on volume, how do you handicap which way it goes?

嗨，巴里。接著你前面的問題，我想從另一個角度來探討這個問題。可能是近十年來，娛樂業似乎首次出現了真正的分歧。大約一半的電視台表示他們不想維持價格，而是想最大化收益，這讓人對其中的利弊有了模糊的認識。另一半電視台則表示他們想維持CPM（每千次曝光成本），也就是維持單價，他們會賣掉這些廣告位。以你的經驗來看，我們這個行業以前是否也出現過類似的分歧？如果有，通常是如何解決的？如果沒有，我們又該何去何從？我的意思是，既然你認為應該降低價格，而網路公司又認為應該降低銷量，你如何判斷最終會走向何方？

First of all, I do not know what has happened in this way, but you know, the issue is not what the positioning is, speculation is, _____00:23:38 upfront, it is what happens when the upfront actually takes place, and my feeling is that people will mostly take the money. They will shout whatever they shout, their position, whatever they do, in the end they are going to be, I think hard pressed not to take the dollars. Now, it would be lovely to say it the other way round, but I just do not think that is reality. The result of that, of course is, that well, they will be of course, these efforts made to quote whole price line. As you know, we get into that market place which is supposed to push that and probably drawn out, which is going to make them draw out this period of _____00:24:23 from now, until when it actually takes place, later than usual. So, that is all going to happen very fast and I think in the end, people will run for the money, I mean that is just my prediction.

首先，我不知道事情怎麼會這樣發展，但你知道，問題不在於目前的定位、投機，而是預售真正發生時會發生什麼事。我的感覺是，大多數人都會接受這筆錢。無論他們如何叫囂，無論他們採取什麼行動，最終都會面臨巨大的壓力，難以抵擋這筆資金的誘惑。當然，如果情況反過來就好了，但我認為現實並非如此。結果當然是，他們會努力報價全線。你知道，我們進入的這個市場本​​應推動價格上漲，但很可能會拖延時間，這將導致他們把這段時間（從現在到實際發生的時間）比平常更晚。所以，這一切都會很快發生，我認為最終人們都會追逐金錢，這只是我的預測。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mr. Niraj Gupta of Salomon Smith Barney. You may ask your question.

我是Salomon Smith Barney公司的Niraj Gupta先生。您可以提問。

Hi. Good afternoon. Two questions, I guess, first, looking at the USA Network's number, which was pretty impressive of your topline, it looked like advertising is up, I guess, by more than mid-single digit. Can you just talk about this, I guess Barry, you identified your concern, I guess probably earlier than anyone else in the Ad market. Can you talk about, perhaps, what techniques, you guys use to get out there, and target advertisers to get the kind of rating that you were able to get. And, two, assume it is three questions, when do you see some kind of benefits from, I guess Vivendi on the international side. And then number three, any current thoughts on share repurchases? Thanks.

您好，下午好。我想問兩個問題。首先，我看了USA Network的收視率，你們的營收成長相當驚人，廣告收入似乎也成長了不只個位數。巴里，您能談談這方面嗎？我想您可能比廣告市場上的其他人都更早意識到了這個問題。您能否談談你們使用了哪些策略來拓展市場，精準定位廣告客戶，從而獲得如此高的收視率？其次，假設這是三個問題，您預計何時能從維旺迪集團的國際業務中獲得收益？第三，您目前對股票回購有什麼看法？謝謝。

I will go backwards. We have no thoughts on share repurchases. Sorry, but there it is. Second, on Vivendi International, we are in lots of conversations with them. I mean, as you know, Vivendi has a great footprint outside the United States and that is the first screening in about 80 million homes or so. So, we are very active talking with them about joint venturing various things and ticketing and in the CD search and in the personal side, and on the retail side, obviously we are very strong in interactive retailing, electronic retailing outside the United States, and growing furiously. But there are lots of opportunities, we think, with Vivendi, we are a very North American Center and have been, and it is only recently, about a couple a years, that we have begun to step out, so to speak. And in that area, you all know the results of how well we have done with electronic retailing and how aggressive we are, but all the rest of the years, we really do need, it is great to have an international player to come in with interest in the company ... that compared to what we do, they do not do in terms of e-commerce services, interactive and basic businesses. So, that is all relatively near in the future. As far as the advertising, the truth is that I do think we anticipated that there will be an off and I think that we have done a good job in managing it, I do not think we have gotten, so to speak, huge increases. I think we have held up _____00:27:18 line in this area, and I think that is what we do for a living. I mean we hopefully anticipate problems and pour into them before they can develop. But, I do not have anything else to really say about, I mean, if there was some precise question on advertising. There is nothing really left else to say that I know about USA Network unless you want to add something.

我先說說我們目前沒有回購股票的計畫。抱歉，情況就是這樣。其次，關於維旺迪國際，我們正在與他們進行多次洽談。眾所周知，維旺迪在美國以外擁有龐大的業務，他們的首映服務涵蓋了約8000萬個家庭。因此，我們正在積極與他們探討各種合作事宜，包括票務、CD搜尋、個人服務以及零售。顯然，我們在美國以外的互動零售和電子零售領域實力雄厚，並且發展迅速。但我們認為，與維旺迪合作有很多機會。我們一直都是一個北美中心，只是最近幾年才開始涉足其他地區。在這一領域，大家都知道我們在電子零售方面取得了多大的成就，以及我們採取了多麼積極的策略。但在其他方面，我們確實需要——非常歡迎有國際企業對公司感興趣——來參與進來……與我們相比，他們在電子商務服務、互動和基礎業務方面做得還不夠。所以，這些都還比較接近實現。至於廣告方面，說實話，我認為我們預料到了會有下滑，而且我認為我們在應對方面做得很好，並沒有大幅成長。我認為我們在這個領域保持了平衡，而這正是我們的工作。我的意思是，我們希望能夠預見問題，並在問題出現前就加以解決。但是，關於廣告方面，我真的沒什麼要補充的了。除非你想補充什麼，否則關於美國電視網（USA Network）我真的沒什麼好說的了。

I just want to add that Niraj we did have some programming that was highly sought after, like Eco Challenge and our PGA Golfing Event. So, we had some very strong competitive situation from advertisers on specific events then. I think that does speak to the strength of some of our kind of regional programming on USA. Niraj Gupta. Then just to follow up what you just discussed. So Barry, do you think something with Vivendi, you think might be announced before yearend?

我只想補充一點，Niraj，我們確實有一些非常受歡迎的節目，像是「生態挑戰賽」和我們的PGA高爾夫賽事。所以，當時我們在這些特定賽事上面臨來自廣告商的激烈競爭。我認為這確實體現了我們在美國的一些區域性節目的優勢。 Niraj Gupta，接下來我想繼續討論你剛才提到的內容。 Barry，你認為在年底前，Vivendi方面會有什麼消息公佈嗎？

What do you mean, something with....

你的意思是，跟……有關嗎？

Any of these joint ventures.

這些合資企業中的任何一個。

Oh! Yeah. We start developing things. We are not too announced, too promotional in this area. But, I think our numbers in joint ventures are a border lift, a few have already begun, and probably two or three others will be underway by summer. I do not know if there is going to be any big time significance and also what really is for us is the establishment of our businesses outside the US in areas where they have influence.

哦！是的。我們開始著手開發專案了。在這個領域，我們並沒有大張旗鼓地宣傳。但是，我認為我們在合資企業方面的進展令人振奮，有些計畫已經啟動，到夏天可能還會有兩三個計畫啟動。我不知道這些項目最終會產生多大的影響，而且對我們來說，真正重要的是在美國以外的、具有影響力的地區建立業務。

And just a followup to Peter's question about the potential Internet acquisition, just to quantify the kind of things we are looking at. These kinds that are South of $15 million, North of $50 million, and will these be done at TMCS levels or would they be done at the parent company levels?

關於Peter提出的可能收購網路業務的問題，我想補充一點，以量化我們正在考慮的收購類型。這些收購的金額是低於1500萬美元還是高於5000萬美元？這些收購是在TMCS層面進行，還是在母公司層級進行？

The South, North, Northeast, and West, and they will be done, we do not know which levels they will hold, I mean, we do not know which entity they will be joining. It will I mean, it is future engineered.

南方、北方、東北方和西方，它們都將完成，我們不知道它們會佔據哪個層級，我的意思是，我們不知道它們會加入哪個實體。我的意思是，這是未來設計的。

Okay. Thanks guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Thanks. Next question.

謝謝。下一個問題。

Mr. Vincent Victor of JP Morgan, you may ask your question.

摩根大通的文森維克多先生，您可以提問了。

Good morning, a couple of questions here. Just following up on Jason's question. It does look like if you just do the math on USA Networks, the split between advertising and other revenues and affiliate revenues, it looks like advertising and others was actually up about 12% or so. I just want to know, is it the other that is driving the 12% growth and what are your comments before Victor about 5% or mid-single digit placing growth.

早上好，我有幾個問題。我先跟進Jason的問題。如果只計算USA Networks的廣告收入和其他收入與附屬機構收入的比例，看起來廣告和其他收入實際上增加了約12%。我想知道，這12%的成長是否是由其他收入推動的？ Victor，你對5%或個位數的成長率有什麼看法？

Yes, it is the other category. It is programming like the farm team, where we get paid just a fee that we do not put into either of the other category.

是的，這是另一個類別。它就像是預備隊一樣，我們只領取報酬，這筆錢不計入其他任何類別。

Okay. Thanks. And then on home shopping, I know that clearly the discounting that you have been doing in the first quarter probably had some impact on the average revenues per customer. I just want to try to understand if you are seeing a hit there and as things pick up in April, are you still seeing a hit relative to six months ago, or are people much more price sensitive in terms of the items they are buying from you?

好的，謝謝。關於網路購物，我知道你們第一季的折扣活動肯定對每位顧客的平均消費額產生了一定影響。我想了解一下，你們是否也感受到了這種衝擊？隨著四月業務回暖，與六個月前相比，你們是否仍感受到這種衝擊？或者說，顧客在購買商品時是否對價格更加敏感了？

I really do not think that the price is actually somewhat higher in the first quarter and that really has to do with mix. It has to do with whether you are selling more home goods rather than other categories like jewellery. I think we clearly need to be within a very kind of, close narrow range for our customer base. And that is true in good and bad economies and we will stay within that range, and that range will be in overall, probably in the mid-40s; sometimes it will be a little higher and sometimes it will be a little less.

我真的不認為第一季的價格實際上略高，這主要與產品組合有關。這取決於你銷售的是家居用品還是珠寶等其他品類。我認為我們顯然需要為我們的客戶群設定一個非常狹窄的價格區間。無論經濟情勢好壞，這一點都適用，我們會堅持在這個區間內，這個區間總體上可能在40英鎊左右；有時會略高一些，有時會略低一些。

Okay.

好的。

I think the answer is, I mean, they also anticipate that the customer is certainly price sensitive. I mean, in all varieties, which has been that they are price sensitive, until they absolutely want something, given this is an impulse business. There is enough want out there, but it is a tough entertainment as you all know, is electronic retail business turns on a dollar and is run by the minute, and the hawkishness with which it is being currently operated is, I think, is appropriate to the environment. The work off of the fourth quarter inventory in the first quarter and continues to a lesser degree, will continue through the second quarter, probably until June. That being very carefully blends through their system, both to get it gone, at decent terms, at the same time, open ourselves up to new products, which is the thing that has been related to the customer. But, I think actually that the execution has been pretty good by just them, and I think that the lines of business that will create us taking share away from our larger competitor, and the merchandise expertise that does keep growing as I have been talking to critical mass, and we are hopeful that in the second half of the year, it is going to make that more account. By the way, I am not thinking that second half of the year that the economy is getting better, because I don't think it is going to. I think it has already been demonstrated that this businesses are somewhat resistant about, not completely but somewhat. In terms of our market share and where did you take it from, and it has nothing to do with market conditions, but has got to do with whether or not, we will change better than our competition.

我認為答案是，他們也預料到顧客對價格非常敏感。我的意思是，所有類型的顧客都對價格敏感，除非他們真的非常想要某樣東西，畢竟這是一個衝動型消費市場。市場需求旺盛，但如大家所知，電子零售業競爭激烈，瞬息萬變，而目前這種鷹派的經營方式，我認為是符合當前環境的。第四季的庫存清理工作將在第一季完成，並持續到第二季​​度，可能要到六月。他們會非常謹慎地將庫存清理到位，既要以合理的價格清空庫存，又要為新產品的上市做好準備，而新產品正是與顧客息息相關的。但我認為，實際上他們單憑自身執行力就做得相當不錯。我認為，那些能夠幫助我們從更大的競爭對手手中奪取市場份額的業務線，以及我與核心團隊交流後不斷增長的商品專業知識，都將推動我們取得更大的進展。我們希望在下半年，這些優勢能夠發揮更大的作用。順便說一句，我並不認為下半年經濟會好轉，因為我認為不會。我認為已經證明，這些企業對市場變化有一定的抵抗力，雖然並非完全如此。就我們的市場份額以及我們是從哪裡獲得市場份額的，這與市場狀況無關，而是取決於我們能否比競爭對手更好地適應變化。

All right and just a quick followup, if I can to your point before Barry, about expanding into new markets. I see here that you guys have stepped up home shopping, expansion in Puerto Rico, Mexico, etc., Could you just talk a little bit about the opportunity in those markets. How long will be the investment and how quickly do you expect a pay back from those investments?

好的，我再補充一點，關於您之前提到的拓展新市場的問題，Barry。我看到你們已經加強了家庭購物業務，並在波多黎各、墨西哥等地進行了擴張。您能否談談這些市場的機會？投資週期多久？預計多久能回本？

We think that expanding in Europe is a fantastic opportunity. We put real capital in there and we have put 50 somewhat million dollars of an investment in Es Spaniel during this year. And part of it was to buy, close to $20 million distribution in television station in Puerto Rico. But, this is a great surface, I mean, most of you on this call don't get it, but you look at this surface on the air, you just look at a piece out there. And if anybody wants to, we will send you a little tape of it because it is really interesting. It is full of energy. It has got great product. All it needs is distribution. And we will inspire to get more distribution. This one out here has 1450 Spanish-speaking people around, and the ability that we have got, we think about this 24 hours a day, right next to our agents in Florida, I mean we have got Home Studio. It is this surface that has all of the resources of HSN's merchandising operations and that is all little Spanish spin on it, and it is a really solid surface, it is going to be a very large, worldwide business for this. It is going to be a really unique thing. This is the signal put up out of Southern Florida that is going to be distributed thousands of miles away and the sale and the good ____ 00:35:43 there, even with all sorts of country issues, current issues, etc., It speaks to, once you get into being a worldwide retailer and we are pretty much, we are certainly on our way. I mean, we are a retailer and you find me a retailer in China, in Japan, in Italy, in Benelux, In the US, in Mexico, in South I mean, it is really an interesting thing that we are putting together here under most people's rate order. When it comes back, I do not know, probably Asia will break even in about a year, something like that, not much longer than that. Although, by the way, we will use more investment if necessary, because the growth is, I expect, the growth great.

我們認為拓展歐洲市場是個絕佳的機會。我們投入了真金白銀，今年在Es Spaniel上投資了近5,000萬美元。其中一部分用於收購波多黎各一家電視台的發行權，價值近2,000萬美元。但是，這是一個非常好的平台，我的意思是，在座的各位可能不太了解，但你們看看電視上的節目，看看它播出的片段。如果有人有興趣，我們可以寄一小段錄影，因為它真的很精彩。它充滿活力，內容優質，現在需要的只是發行管道。我們會努力拓展發行通路。這個平台涵蓋了1450名西班牙語使用者，我們擁有這樣的能力，我們每天24小時都在關注著它，我們的佛羅裡達代理商就在旁邊，我們還有家庭工作室。這個平台匯集了HSN所有商品銷售的資源，並融入了一些西班牙特色，它是一個非常堅實的基礎，將會發展成為一項規模龐大的全球性業務。這將是一個真正獨特的項目。這是從佛羅裡達南部發出的信號，它將被分發到數千英里之外，銷售和良好的____ 00:35:43，即使面臨各種國家問題、當前問題等等，它也表明，一旦你成為一家全球零售商，而我們幾乎已經做到了，我們肯定正在朝著這個方向前進。我的意思是，我們是一家零售商，你可以在中國、日本、義大利、比荷盧經濟聯盟、美國、墨西哥、南非找到我們這樣的零售商。我的意思是，我們正在以大多數人的價格順序打造一個非常有趣的項目。至於何時恢復，我不知道，亞洲市場可能在一年左右就能達到收支平衡，差不多就是這樣，不會太久。不過，順便說一句，如有必要，我們將加大投資，因為我預計成長勢頭會非常強勁。

In the remainder of our international markets, the turnaround estimate is quite, quite huge. Because, we are able to go in there with partners, we have distribution guaranteed when we go in to a territory; when you combine that distribution with our expertise in this electronic retailing area, and the similarities between what you sell throughout the world, we are almost getting as close to a sure thing of being able to operate these things profitably, as you can get, and it is just a tremendous business. Our business growing in Germany at a very rapid rate and if you just saw any kind of matrix of value, we have almost an infinite return on our investment in Germany, already.

在其他國際市場，扭虧為盈的預期非常巨大。因為我們能夠與合作夥伴攜手進入這些市場，一旦進入某個地區，就能確保分銷管道暢通；將這種分銷管道與我們在電子零售領域的專業知識相結合，再加上我們在全球銷售的產品具有相似性，我們幾乎可以肯定能夠實現盈利，這絕對是一項巨大的業務。我們在德國的業務成長速度非常快，如果您查看任何價值矩陣，您會發現我們在德國的投資回報幾乎是無限的。

Great. Thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Mr. Christopher Dickson of _____00:37:31. You may ask your question.

克里斯多福‧迪克森先生，時間：_____00:37:31。您可以提問了。

Two questions, if I can. First, Victor the followup on the extraordinary opportunities in the international retailing, I think you saw HSN doing a $6.4 million EBITDA loss for the quarter; we had been losing about $20 million a year. Is that still kind of the budget you are looking forward, do you see that accelerating, going forward, and where are we given the opportunities? And secondly, perhaps, Mr. Diller could talk a little bit about the potential upcoming strike: one, what his views are from a historical point of view and two, how it might the impact the various USA profits?

如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。首先，Victor，關於國際零售業的巨大機遇，我想您也看到了HSN本季度EBITDA虧損640萬美元；我們之前每年虧損約2000萬美元。您目前的預算預期是否仍然如此？您認為未來虧損會加劇嗎？我們有哪些機會？其次，Diller先生能否談談即將到來的潛在罷工：第一，他從歷史角度對此有何看法？第二，罷工可能對美國各業務的利潤產生哪些影響？

On the first question, I do think the numbers we have are what we anticipate we are going into premium markets. We pretty much know what it costs to start up in these markets, to the extent that we can enter other markets more quickly; that number potentially could go up, but it will only go up if we believe the return is there quickly. I think we can, as with HSE, reach profitability probably within two years in almost any country. That is our goal and it adds to our returns.

關於第一個問題，我認為我們目前掌握的數據反映了我們進軍高端市場的預期。我們基本上清楚在這些市場啟動業務的成本，因此我們能夠更快地進入其他市場；這個數字可能會上升，但只有在我們相信能夠快速獲得回報的情況下才會上升。我認為，就像HSE一樣，我們幾乎可以在任何國家/地區實現兩年內獲利。這是我們的目標，也有助於提高我們的收益。

As far as the strike is concerned, if a strike really happens, it does not really affect us, I mean, it does not in any material way, affect us. The ones it will affect, of course, the sole area that I think it affects is the broadcast network, no it affects the cable networks particularly. Will there or won't there be? I have thought, kind of, for the longest time, when everybody said that there was absolutely going to be a strike, that there would not be one. I still do not think there will be one, though there is a bit of bad timing in the recent release of last year's pay packages to senior media executives that has stirred things up a bit, there have been comments that they are just of the politicization of that process - management against unions and vice versa, but to have the statements made that pay packages of actually one, if not a second, senior executive in one of these companies is greater than the entire guild over the entire period of the new contract, does not exactly...that is a nice rallying cry. Despite that, I think, in the end there is just not the grounds for strike, but we will know fairly soon, I think in a couple of weeks, probably about the first stage of the strike. You know, people are thinking that this is the writer's start...the writers in fact are locked in the same _____00:40:31. They are decidedly not, and you may have a settlement of the writers and still forget a SAG stoppage because the SAG internal operation is such a mess. The management of the Screen Actors' Guild is not very savvy. Or vice versa, although I do not think vice versa will not probably happen. In any event, I do not think so, but we will know soon enough.

就罷工而言，即便真的發生罷工，對我們其實也沒什麼影響，我的意思是，它不會對我們造成任何實質的影響。當然，它會影響到的領域，我認為唯一會受到影響的領域是廣播電視網，不，它主要影響的是有線電視網。到底會不會發生罷工？很長一段時間以來，當大家都說一定會罷工的時候，我其實一直覺得不會發生。我仍然認為不會發生罷工，儘管最近公佈的去年媒體高階主管薪酬方案時機不太好，這確實引發了一些爭議。有人評論說，這只是把這個過程政治化了——管理層反對工會，反之亦然。但是，有人聲稱，其中一家公司一位（甚至可能兩位）高管的薪酬方案比整個工會在新合約期間的總薪酬還要高，這……這真是一個振奮人心的口號。儘管如此，我認為最終還是沒有罷工的理由，但我們很快就會知道，我想大概幾週之內，可能就會知道罷工的第一階段。你知道，人們認為這是編劇們的行動……事實上，編劇也陷入了同樣的困境。他們絕對不是這樣，即使編劇們達成了和解，你仍然可能忘記演員工會（SAG）的罷工，因為SAG內部運作一團糟。美國演員工會的管理階層並不精明。或者反過來也行，雖然我認為反過來不太可能發生。總之，我不這麼認為，但我們很快就會知道結果。

Mr. Gordon Haas of Thomas Riffle Partners, you may ask your question.

Thomas Riffle Partners公司的Gordon Haas先生，您可以提問了。

Good morning, just two questions, one on the USA films. I am a little surprised you did not show some profit there; obviously you had a terrific success with Traffic, and may be you can just comment on that? I know you spend some time marketing around the Academy Awards. Could you discuss that a little bit and then also, if could give us an update on the innovation transaction. Just whether you get any regulatory Stags or just what is the timing on that and how that is progressing. And then lastly, as related to that, how the move from broadcast to cable distribution is going?

早安，我有兩個問題，一個是關於美國電影的。我有點驚訝你們在美國市場沒有獲利；顯然，《毒品網絡》取得了巨大的成功，您能否就此談談？我知道你們在奧斯卡頒獎典禮前後花了很多時間做市場推廣。能否簡單談談這方面？另外，能否為我們介紹一下創新交易的最新進展？例如，你們是否獲得了任何監管方面的批准？具體時間安排如何？進展如何？最後，也和創新交易有關，從廣播電視轉向有線電視發行的情況如何？

Okay. First on Traffic, last year the accounting rules where changes related to the movie business, which requires you to write off all prints in advertising upfront, not spread that cause over the life of your revenue stream. So, in some ways, the more successful the movie you have, the less you earn in the beginning. And it becomes somewhat back and loaded and that is true to a much greater extent on a starter company that does not have the flow of other revenues to the build-up of the films going to the pipeline over a long period of time. So, Traffic was in distribution for a long period. We obviously spent a considerable amount on marketing, we think less than others will spend.

好的。首先說說《毒品網絡》（Traffic）。去年電影業的會計準則發生了一些變化，要求你必須提前將所有廣告印刷成本沖銷，而不是像以前那樣分攤到整個收入週期中。所以，在某種程度上，電影越成功，你最初的收入就越少。這有點像後發製人，對於一家沒有其他收入來源、無法長期累積電影製作成本的新創公司來說，這種情況尤其明顯。 《毒品網》的發行週期很長。我們顯然在行銷上投入了相當多的資金，但我們認為這比其他人少。

Sure, more than anybody else would spend on a picture of comparable size probably by 20-25% less than any cost that strikes me.

當然，比其他人花在同等尺寸畫作上的錢要多，可能比我想像中的任何價格都要低 20-25%。

I think that is true. So, the results of that become a little bit misleading. But you will see the profits of Traffic flow through and the future quarters, remember as we release new movies, we are going to face the same issue relating to releasing costs. So, one of the main reasons that we have USA films in our merging business operation is that regardless the performance, it is probably virtually impossible for it to make money for the next two to three years.

我認為確實如此。因此，這樣的結果可能會有些誤導。但你會看到Traffic的利潤持續成長，在接下來的幾個季度裡，請記住，隨著我們發行新電影，我們將面臨同樣的發行成本問題。所以，我們合併業務中包含美國電影的主要原因之一是，無論票房表現如何，它們在未來兩到三年內幾乎不可能獲利。

Just right by the way you are not going to see us release any movies.

順便一提，你們不會看到我們發行任何電影。

And then on the innovation work?

那麼，在創新工作方面呢？

In Innovation, we are optimistic in terms of where it stands on the overall basis. We think it probably will close in the third quarter. Gordon what was the third question?

就整體而言，我們對創新業務的前景持樂觀態度。我們認為它很可能會在第三季完成。戈登，第三個問題是什麼來著？

Just the parting of Home Shopping from Broadcast must carry distribution to your cable.

電視購物頻道從廣播電視分離出來後，必須透過有線電視分發。

That as you know is a complex question as you ....

如你所知，這是一個複雜的問題…

He is not going to answer.

他不會回答。

Okay.

好的。

We all know, I mean, I am certainly not going to answer this completely so, I am going to answer simply.

我們都知道，我的意思是，我當然不可能完全回答這個問題，所以我只能簡單回答。

Okay.

好的。

As you know, we switched over from broadcast distribution to cable distribution and we will be able to effectuate that switch over the cable, you still lose homes of people who do not have cable. The people, who have only a broadcast signal and no cable, however spend significantly less than those that have cable in terms of dollars per home. We have estimated that will have probably a 6% effect on our sales line at HSN, and net, probably our EBITDA will be affected around $10 million in that area. We will break our numbers out in a way that everyone can look at it on a comfortable basis, because we think it is a one-time effect; that we will be able to show those numbers without affecting the long-term growth of the business, and obviously we hope that we can replace that with additional cable distribution. Is that all?

如您所知，我們已從廣播分發轉向有線電視分發，並且我們將能夠透過有線電視完成這項轉變。但您仍然會失去一些沒有有線電視的用戶。然而，那些只有廣播訊號而沒有有線電視的用戶，其每戶的消費金額遠低於有線電視用戶。我們估計這可能會對我們在HSN的銷售額造成6%的影響，淨利差額（EBITDA）可能會因此減少約1000萬美元。我們將以清晰易懂的方式列出相關數據，因為我們認為這只是一次性影響；我們能夠在不影響公司長期成長的前提下展示這些數據。當然，我們也希望能夠透過增加有線電視分送來彌補這部分損失。就這些嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, next question.

好的，下一個問題。

Mr. David Goldsmith of Buckingham Research, you may ask your question.

來自白金漢研究公司的戴維‧戈德史密斯先生，您可以提問了。

Hi. Thanks. Is the restructuring of the capital structure of the company kind of dependent on the Univision deal? And when do you think you might accomplish that?

您好，謝謝。公司資本結構的重組是否在某種程度上取決於與Univision的交易？您預計何時能夠完成重組？

Well, the Univision deal obviously puts us in a position to be virtually out of the broadcast business, which does allow us we think to eliminate our complex structure and make our operations presented on a more simplistic basis eliminating our subsidiary and all of our minority interest issues that we would have. All of our shares at the parent level. And I think you will come in at a very good time, because as the world changes with the new accounting rules that will not have the ride off goodwill. I think people will be able to see next year a much more simplistic approach to the way we present our numbers.

顯然，Univision 的交易使我們幾乎完全退出了廣播業務，這讓我們得以精簡複雜的組織結構，簡化營運流程，包括剝離子公司和所有少數股東權益問題，以及剝離母公司層面的所有股份。我認為您現在加入正值良機，因為隨著新的會計準則出台，商譽不再會像以前那樣帶來收益。我相信明年大家就能看到我們財務報表呈現方式的顯著簡化。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ms. Sharon Williams of AT Edwards, you may ask your question.

AT Edwards公司的Sharon Williams女士，您可以提問了。

Thank you. I recognize that you are merchandising for _____00:46:34 and customer service skills position you for direct selling very differently from early e-commerce companies like Amazon. But is there any thing about the Amazon business that you admire or would benefit from replicating?

謝謝。我知道您目前正在為_____00:46:34做商品銷售，而您的客戶服務技能使您在直銷領域與亞馬遜等早期電商公司截然不同。但是，您在亞馬遜的商業模式中，有哪些方面是您所欣賞的，或者您希望藉鏡借鑒的呢？

What Amazon did? Look Amazon did one thing great, which is their relationship with the customer, has been personally on every level. And they have the customers to show for, the accounts, package accounts to show for. So, there is no question, but that is to emulate as you can. And I think we do that in our own interactive commerce sites etc, but the real question for Amazon is one thing to do it for book tapes and music, and music and it is another if it is more complex retail category beyond that, and I think that will be the test for the coming year. I do not have anything else to say about it than that.

亞馬遜做了什麼？你看，亞馬遜有一點做得非常出色，那就是他們與客戶建立了良好的關係，這種關係體現在各個層面。他們擁有龐大的客戶群，大量的帳戶和包裹帳戶就是最好的證明。所以，毫無疑問，我們應該盡可能地效法他們。我認為我們在自己的互動電商網站等方面也做到了這一點，但對亞馬遜來說，真正的問題在於，如果只做書籍、磁帶和音樂，以及更複雜的零售品類，那就是另一回事了。我認為這將是明年的考驗。除此之外，我沒什麼好說的了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, operator.

下一個問題，操作員。

Mr. Victor Miller of Bear Stearns.

貝爾斯登公司的維克多‧米勒先生。

Just as a followup, Barry a couple of things. Could you contrast really the demise of NVCI & GO relative to your vision for the Internet? Is the demise of those entities good for USA, and then I have one other issue...

巴里，還有幾個後續問題。你能否將NVCI和GO的消亡與你對網路的願景進行對比？這些機構的消亡對美國有利嗎？另外，我還有一個問題…

I never demonstrated that the margin of anything that NBC is good for us, purely but, god knows ________ 00:48:21. I do not think it is good or better in different look. It is the difference between us, and I think the thing to really pay attention to about this and Victor you have, I think understood it for a while is the relationship between at base, a long time interactive retailer when, so to speak, along comes the internet, which is somewhat midline from the materiality of those businesses, which have been around for 10 years previously. And so, I think what we do about that is really unique, and the thing is, I we are utterly convinced, I mean, we are on this path we began some time ago, which is ever closer to getting in to evidence, which is that there is a relationship between direct selling our version of electronic or ____ 00:49:21 version, but inner active electronic commerce, which has got true various kinds of obviously wind in its back in the development of all this technology, which is going to continue to develop and inner activity in terms of ____00:49:43, and the relationship between the sky and the ground, particularly if Mr. Murdoch ends up with DTV, which I still think is the likely scenario. Those developments are all getting now in somewhat train with each other and as they do, the relationship between direct selling and entertainment programming, and advertiser-based revenue streams from such programming, all are beginning to converge. And that is what we do for a living in every part of it. As you look for the things we have done recently, the stuff we have not talked about today, which is in our electronic services business, and our database marketing businesses and all things we are doing in that area that will lay direct selling to all of these abilities to serve in terms of all these different areas, all that stopped _____00:50:45 in the part. So NBC, I, or ABC, GO, or any of these media companies that got into the area because the flag came of, and they said, oh! My god we better dive or ____00:51:01. All these people who traded equity blocked it, but equity in terms of revenues and things in terms of trading it for advertising cuts, all of that ripple is all washed away. We never thought of it in the first place. We never played it. But for us, we just kept doing what we are doing and I think in the last period, people have come to say, Oh! Well, Yeah, look at that most important thing on the cover page of this thing, is this Internet commerce group of ours, which has got bigger revenue. And I think that is damn good real earnings and growing and growing. So long ended, I do want to keep everybody, kind of, on point on that about this company's unique perspective and it is why our growth over a period of time, is going to, so to speak, transcend and confound those people who said a second tier, "media player" can survive and is going to get marginalized. Not only equity is going to get marginalized but also I actually think that we are making roads that will really focus half ____00:52:31.

我從未證明NBC的任何利潤對我們有利，純粹是，但天知道________ 00:48:21。我不認為它在不同方面更好或更有利。這是我們之間的區別，我認為真正需要注意的是，維克多，你，我認為你早就明白了，從根本上來說，一家長期從事互動零售的企業，當互聯網出現時，它在某種程度上與那些已經存在了10年的企業的物質性有所不同。所以，我認為我們在這方面所做的工作確實獨樹一格。關鍵在於，我們完全確信，我們正走在這條我們很久以前就開始的道路上，這條路越來越接近於證實這一點：直銷（我們版本的電子或____ 00:49:21，但更確切地說是活躍的內部電子商務）與內部活動之間存在著某種聯繫。顯然，所有這些技術的發展都為其提供了各種助力，而且這些技術還將繼續發展，內部活動也與____ 00:49:43有關。此外，如果默多克先生最終收購了DTV（我仍然認為這是最有可能的情況），那麼這些發展趨勢正在彼此交織，隨著它們的融合，直銷與娛樂節目以及此類節目帶來的廣告收入之間的關係也開始趨於一致。而這正是我們賴以生存的各個層面。當你回顧我們最近所做的事情，以及我們今天沒有談到的電子服務業務、資料庫行銷業務以及我們在該領域所做的一切時，你會發現，這些業務將直接銷售給所有這些不同領域的客戶，而所有這些都在_____00:50:45處停止了。所以，NBC、ABC、GO，或任何其他進入該領域的媒體公司，因為情況的變化而進入該領域，他們說，哦！我的天哪，我們最好趕快行動，或____00:51:01。所有這些進行股權交易的人都阻止了它，但就收入而言，就用股權換取廣告削減而言，所有這些漣漪都已被沖刷乾淨。我們一開始就沒想過這一點。我們從未參與過。但對我們來說，我們只是繼續做我們正在做的事情，我認為在最近一段時間，人們開始說，哦！嗯，是的，看看這期雜誌封面上最重要的部分，就是我們這個網路商務集團，它的收入更高了。我認為這是非常可觀的實際收益，而且還在不斷增長。總而言之，我想讓大家記住我們公司獨特的視角，也正是因為如此，我們隨著時間的推移而取得的增長，可以說超越並顛覆了那些認為二線「媒體播放器」能夠生存下去，但最終會被邊緣化的觀點。不僅股權會被邊緣化，而且我認為我們正在開闢的道路將真正聚焦在…（00:52:31）。

Just a follow on what you said in the middle that, that you talked about the GM and Murdoch. What could the sale of GM stake in the DBS business set in motion in terms of acquisitions, consolidations, and divestitures? Do you see anything that might come out of swirl that you would be interested in or would benefit your company?

接著您剛才提到的通用汽車和默多克，我想問一下，通用汽車出售在星展銀行的股份，可能會引發哪些收購、整合和資產剝離？您認為這其中是否包含您感興趣或對貴公司有利的因素？

That is the last thing that is going to happen. We are all speculative. You can make your list just as easily as we can make ours. And, they probably would be similar and there is nothing more about at this stage, because it is just speculative. I do believe that these Tech electronics shares are going to take place in probably this calendar year. I could be of course, wrong in my timing, I am certainly not wrong over a period of couple of years. But that is kind of ... you get points for that, so much for that, if you get points for any others, other than to see what place we are in this ...if this speculation proves true and what the opportunities are.

那絕對不會發生。我們都在進行推測。你可以像我們一樣輕鬆地列出你的名單。而且，名單可能很相似，現階段也沒什麼好說的了，因為這只是推測。我確實認為這些科技電子股可能會在今年內出現波動。當然，我的預測時間可能不準，但我肯定不會在未來幾年內犯錯。但這有點……你對此有所了解，僅此而已。如果你對其他方面有任何了解，除了看看我們現在處於什麼位置……如果這個推測成真，以及有哪些機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think we are out of time.

我覺得我們時間不夠了。

We are definitely out of time. Thank you to all participating. We are available to any of you who want to get additional information. Call if you would like. Thank you.

時間確實已經到了。感謝所有參與者。如有任何疑問，歡迎隨時致電。謝謝。