MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the MSC Industrial Supply Fiscal 2022 Third Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to John Chironna, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 MSC 工業供應 2022 財年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 John Chironna。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Erik Gershwind, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kristen Actis-Grande, our Chief Financial Officer, are both on the call with me today. During today's call, we will refer to various financial and management data in the presentation slides that accompany our comments as well as our operational statistics, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations web page.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。 Erik Gershwind，我們的首席執行官；今天，我們的首席財務官 Kristen Actis-Grande 都與我通話。在今天的電話會議中，我們將在伴隨我們評論的演示幻燈片中參考各種財務和管理數據以及我們的運營統計數據，這兩個數據都可以在我們的投資者關係網頁上找到。

Let me reference our safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, a summary of which is on Slide 2 of the accompanying presentation. Our comments on this call as well as the supplemental information we are providing on the website contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. securities laws, including statements about the high inflationary environment and global economic conditions on our operations, results of operations and financial condition, expected future results, expected benefits from our investment in strategic plans and other initiatives and expected future growth and profitability. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements. Information about these risks is noted in our earnings press release and the Risk Factors and the MD&A sections of our latest annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC as well as in our other SEC filings.

讓我參考我們在 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》下的安全港聲明，其摘要在隨附演示文稿的幻燈片 2 中。我們對本次電話會議的評論以及我們在網站上提供的補充信息包含美國證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括關於高通脹環境和全球經濟狀況對我們的運營、運營結果和財務狀況、預期的未來結果、我們對戰略計劃和其他舉措的投資的預期收益以及預期的未來增長和盈利能力。這些前瞻性陳述涉及可能導致實際結果與這些陳述所預期的結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險的信息在我們的收益新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格最新年度報告的風險因素和 MD&A 部分以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中都有說明。

These risk factors include our comments on the high inflationary environment and global economic conditions. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements, except as required by applicable law. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

這些風險因素包括我們對高通脹環境和全球經濟狀況的評論。這些前瞻性陳述基於我們目前的預期，公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務，除非適用法律要求。告誡投資者不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

In addition, during this call, we may refer to certain adjusted financial results, which are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the GAAP versus non-GAAP reconciliations in our presentation or on our website, which contain the reconciliation of the adjusted financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

此外，在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會參考某些調整後的財務業績，這些業績是非公認會計原則的衡量標準。請參閱我們的演示文稿或我們的網站上的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬，其中包含調整後的財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬。

I'll now turn the call over to Erik.

我現在把電話轉給 Erik。

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I hope you remain safe and healthy. On today's call, I'll reflect on our recent performance, provide color on Q3 and also share our perspective on the current environment. Kristen will provide more specifics on our financial performance and outlook, and I'll then wrap things up before we open up the line for questions.

謝謝，約翰。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我希望你保持安全和健康。在今天的電話會議上，我將回顧我們最近的表現，為第三季度提供色彩，並分享我們對當前環境的看法。克里斯汀將提供更多關於我們的財務業績和前景的細節，然後我會在我們開放提問之前總結一下。

We're now 3/4 of the way through fiscal 2022, and our drive to improve execution and financial performance is in full swing. Each passing quarter is another proof point of progress on our mission-critical journey. During our fiscal third quarter, we achieved revenue growth of roughly 500 basis points above the IP index; we demonstrated continued gross margin expansion, both sequentially and year-over-year; and we translated the growth into strong operating leverage.

到 2022 財年，我們現在已經完成了 3/4，我們提高執行力和財務業績的努力正在全面展開。每個過去的季度都是我們在關鍵任務旅程中取得進展的另一個證明點。在我們的第三財季，我們實現了比知識產權指數高出約 500 個基點的收入增長；我們展示了連續和同比毛利率的持續增長；我們將增長轉化為強大的經營槓桿。

Adjusted incremental margins for the quarter were just over 33%, and adjusted operating margins expanded 200 basis points. Our fiscal third quarter represented the highest revenue in the history of our company and the lowest operating expense to sales ratio since fiscal 2013. While we're encouraged with progress, we are far from satisfied.

本季度調整後的增量利潤率略高於 33%，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 200 個基點。我們的第三財季是我們公司歷史上最高的收入，也是自 2013 財年以來最低的營業費用與銷售額的比率。雖然我們對進展感到鼓舞，但我們遠未滿足。

On the growth front, we're seeing historically high contribution from realized price in light of the inflationary environment. And so we still expect more growth above IP, and we're focused on capturing it. On the profitability front, operating margins are improving, but we strive for consistent margin expansion before we declare victory.

在增長方面，鑑於通脹環境，我們看到已實現價格的貢獻處於歷史最高水平。因此，我們仍然期望 IP 之外的更多增長，我們專注於捕捉它。在盈利能力方面，營業利潤率正在提高，但在宣布勝利之前，我們會努力實現持續的利潤率擴張。

Turning now to our performance, I'll begin with revenue growth. We remain focused on the same 5 growth levers that have had our attention all year. And those are: metalworking, solutions, selling the portfolio, digital and customer diversification with an emphasis on the public sector. Today, I'll highlight metalworking, selling the portfolio and the public sector.

現在轉向我們的表現，我將從收入增長開始。我們仍然專注於全年關注的 5 個增長槓桿。它們是：金屬加工、解決方案、產品組合銷售、數字化和客戶多元化，重點是公共部門。今天，我將重點介紹金屬加工、銷售投資組合和公共部門。

Metalworking remains the cornerstone of our strategy. We use our expertise to bring productivity and profit improvement to our customers. These efforts are driving customer satisfaction, new wins and the strong price realization rates that we've been seeing. A recent example underscores the power of our metalworking team.

金屬加工仍然是我們戰略的基石。我們利用我們的專業知識為我們的客戶帶來生產力和利潤的提升。這些努力正在推動我們所看到的客戶滿意度、新的勝利和強勁的價格實現率。最近的一個例子凸顯了我們金屬加工團隊的力量。

One of our experts recently consulted with a customer who produces machinery for the food processing and consumer goods industries. We recommended numerous process improvements to both their drilling and milling operations. Those recommendations reduced cycle times in milling in the customers' milling operations from nearly 3 minutes down to just 10 seconds per part. Similar improvements were made in their drilling operation, taking cycle times from over 2 minutes down to just 15 seconds. In total, this translated into increased capacity and reduced energy consumption, yielding $700,000 in annual profit improvement for the customer. For MSC, this has resulted in a severalfold increase in share of wallet.

我們的一位專家最近諮詢了一位為食品加工和消費品行業生產機械的客戶。我們建議對其鑽孔和銑削操作進行多項工藝改進。這些建議將客戶銑削操作中的銑削循環時間從近 3 分鐘縮短到每個零件僅 10 秒。他們的鑽井作業也進行了類似的改進，將循環時間從 2 多分鐘縮短到 15 秒。總的來說，這轉化為產能增加和能耗降低，為客戶帶來了 700,000 美元的年度利潤增長。對於 MSC，這導致錢包份額增加了幾倍。

In order to bolster our metalworking leadership, we acquired Engman Taylor, a premier metalworking distributor headquartered in Wisconsin, after the quarter end. We have long admired the company and are excited about the combination of our 2 businesses. Engman-Taylor brings to MSC a deep bench of metalworking expertise, a great reputation with customers and suppliers and a culture that aligns with ours. CEO, Rick Star, will continue running the Engman-Taylor business, and I'm thrilled to welcome him and the entire team to MSC.

為了鞏固我們的金屬加工領導地位，我們在本季度末收購了總部位於威斯康星州的主要金屬加工經銷商 Engman Taylor。我們長期以來一直欽佩這家公司，並對我們兩家業務的合併感到興奮。 Engman-Taylor 為 MSC 帶來了深厚的金屬加工專業知識、在客戶和供應商中的良好聲譽以及與我們一致的文化。首席執行官 Rick Star 將繼續經營 Engman-Taylor 業務，我很高興歡迎他和整個團隊加入 MSC。

Next, I'll touch on selling the portfolio, which is about cross-selling additional product lines, most notably, our C-Parts consumable offering of CCSG. This business is particularly important because it solves a big challenge for our customers through an outsourced VMI model and, at the same time, creates high degrees of loyalty and stickiness for MSC in a high-margin category. We have sharpened our focus on this business, and we're seeing performance improve as a result. Growth has been pacing ahead of company average with Q3 coming in the mid-teens. We view this as the early stages of our plan, and we expect momentum to build.

接下來，我將談到銷售產品組合，即交叉銷售其他產品線，最值得注意的是我們的 CCSG 的 C-Parts 消耗品產品。這項業務特別重要，因為它通過外包的 VMI 模式為我們的客戶解決了一個巨大的挑戰，同時為 MSC 在高利潤類別中創造了高度的忠誠度和粘性。我們已經加強了對這項業務的關注，我們看到業績因此得到改善。隨著第三季度的到來，增長一直領先於公司平均水平。我們認為這是我們計劃的早期階段，我們預計勢頭會增強。

Finally on the growth front. I'll update on the public sector. While sales remained down in the quarter, I'm encouraged by progress. During the course of Q3, we completed implementation across the entirety of Marine basis for the 4PL contract. We've begun to see revenues build, and we're on pace with our initial expectations. Partially as a result of this, we saw the public sector inflect during the quarter. March and April were slightly under 20% negative, whereas May flipped to growth, and we expect double-digit growth in our fiscal fourth quarter.

終於在增長方面。我將更新公共部門的信息。雖然本季度銷售額仍然下降，但我對進展感到鼓舞。在第三季度，我們完成了 4PL 合同的整個海事基礎的實施。我們已經開始看到收入的增長，並且我們正在與我們最初的預期保持同步。部分由於這個原因，我們看到公共部門在本季度發生了變化。 3 月和 4 月的負數略低於 20%，而 5 月轉為增長，我們預計第四財季將實現兩位數的增長。

Turning to gross margin. I remain quite pleased with our performance. Following a strong output in our fiscal Q2, gross margins lifted sequentially another 40 basis points in Q3. This is largely the result of the late January price increase and supplier rebate upside, due to higher purchase volumes. Realization rates remain strong against the backdrop of severe inflation as our value proposition is resonating with customers during these extreme times.

轉向毛利率。我對我們的表現仍然很滿意。在我們第二季度的強勁產出之後，第三季度的毛利率又連續上升了 40 個基點。這主要是由於採購量增加導致 1 月下旬價格上漲和供應商回扣上漲的結果。在嚴重通貨膨脹的背景下，實現率仍然很高，因為我們的價值主張在這些極端時期引起了客戶的共鳴。

Our customers are plagued with rapid inflation, labor shortages and extended lead times. The need for product availability and for tangible productivity gains are paramount. MSC is delivering on both fronts as evidenced by the example I shared earlier. I'll also mention that in response to continued supplier cost increases, we implemented a low single-digit price increase towards the end of May.

我們的客戶受到快速通貨膨脹、勞動力短缺和交貨時間延長的困擾。對產品可用性和切實提高生產力的需求至關重要。正如我之前分享的示例所證明的那樣，MSC 在兩個方面都提供了服務。我還要提到，為了應對供應商成本的持續上漲，我們在 5 月底實施了低個位數的價格上漲。

Finally, I'm particularly excited by our progress this quarter on operating profit improvement. Thanks to our Mission Critical initiatives and to the efforts of our entire team on expense control and productivity gains, we reduced adjusted operating expense to sales ratio by 140 basis points and hence, expanded adjusted operating margins by 200 basis points. These efforts are pushing adjusted ROIC into the high teens, and we are ahead of schedule with our original 2023 goal.

最後，我對本季度在提高營業利潤方面取得的進展感到特別興奮。由於我們的關鍵任務計劃以及我們整個團隊在費用控制和生產力提高方面的努力，我們將調整後的營業費用與銷售額的比率降低了 140 個基點，因此調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 200 個基點。這些努力將調整後的投資回報率推向了高位，我們提前實現了我們最初的 2023 年目標。

Turning to the external landscape. We are in interesting times indeed. On the one hand, there are several yellow or red macro indicators, such as high inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain shortages and challenges. On the other hand, we are experiencing a more encouraging picture. Order levels, backlogs and overall activity remain strong. Most segments of the industrial economy are still seeing robust demand patterns as evidenced by the Industrial Production index.

轉向外部景觀。我們確實處於有趣的時代。一方面，有幾個黃色或紅色的宏觀指標，例如高通脹、利率上升以及持續的供應鏈短缺和挑戰。另一方面，我們正在經歷更令人鼓舞的畫面。訂單水平、積壓訂單和整體活動依然強勁。正如工業生產指數所證明的那樣，工業經濟的大多數部門仍然看到強勁的需求模式。

That said, many of our customers are feeling the effects of extreme inflation in all lines of their income statement, along with the ongoing labor and supply shortages, resulting in the need for productivity and process improvement. Despite supply chain constraints easing gradually, we are nowhere near back to a normal environment. And while all of this continues to put pressure on our customers, we are not seeing the evidence of an imminent recession that is suggested by the headlines.

也就是說，我們的許多客戶在其損益表的所有項目中都感受到了極端通貨膨脹的影響，以及持續的勞動力和供應短缺，導致需要改進生產力和流程。儘管供應鏈限制逐漸緩解，但我們離恢復正常環境還差得很遠。儘管所有這些都繼續給我們的客戶帶來壓力，但我們並沒有看到頭條新聞所暗示的經濟衰退迫在眉睫的證據。

As a result, we remain in growth mode. In fact, we expect double-digit organic average daily sales growth to continue in fiscal Q4 as evidenced by our June reading. If, however, we were to see a change in environment at any point, we're prepared to adjust quickly. Through the pandemic, we've become more agile, and we've improved our ability to course-correct. In addition, our balance sheet remains strong, and our cash generation will continue improving, leaving us well-positioned to capitalize on any opportunities that would emerge.

因此，我們仍處於增長模式。事實上，我們預計第四財季將繼續實現兩位數的有機日均銷售額增長，正如我們 6 月份的數據所證明的那樣。但是，如果我們在任何時候看到環境發生變化，我們準備快速調整。通過大流行，我們變得更加敏捷，並且我們提高了改正路線的能力。此外，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們的現金生成將繼續改善，使我們能夠充分利用可能出現的任何機會。

I'll now turn things over to Kristen.

我現在把事情交給克里斯汀。

Thank you, Erik. I'll begin on Slide 4 of our presentation where you can see key metrics for the fiscal third quarter on a reported basis. Slide 5 reflects the adjusted results, which is where I'll focus most of my comments today.

謝謝你，埃里克。我將從演示文稿的幻燈片 4 開始，您可以在報告的基礎上查看第三財季的關鍵指標。幻燈片 5 反映了調整後的結果，這是我今天大部分評論的重點。

Our third quarter sales were up 10.7% versus the same quarter last year and came in at $959 million. Our non-safety and non-janitorial product lines grew nearly 13%, and sales of safety and janitorial products improved sequentially to flat. Looking at growth rates for our sales by customer type. Government sales declined nearly 10%, due to the difficult janitorial and safety comps. The comps have begun to ease, and we do expect government sales to return to growth in Q4. National Account growth was high teens, and core customers grew low double digits.

我們第三季度的銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 10.7%，達到 9.59 億美元。我們的非安全和非清潔產品線增長近 13%，安全和清潔產品的銷售額環比增長至持平。按客戶類型查看我們的銷售額增長率。由於困難的清潔和安全補償，政府銷售額下降了近 10%。補償已經開始緩解，我們確實預計政府銷售將在第四季度恢復增長。國民賬戶增長高達十幾歲，核心客戶增長低至兩位數。

Moving to more technical and solutions-oriented business remains an integral part of our mission critical strategy. Sales to customers with solutions now represent roughly 55% of the total company sales. Within that solutions umbrella, our in-plant program moved to nearly 10% of total company sales in Q3. You may recall that our goal was to reach 10% by the end of fiscal 2023. So progress is accelerating faster than anticipated. The remaining approximately 45% of company sales to solutions customers are made up primarily of our vending and vendor-managed inventory channels.

轉向更多以技術和解決方案為導向的業務仍然是我們關鍵任務戰略的一個組成部分。現在，向客戶提供解決方案的銷售額約占公司總銷售額的 55%。在該解決方案範圍內，我們的廠內計劃在第三季度占公司總銷售額的近 10%。您可能還記得，我們的目標是到 2023 財年末達到 10%。因此進展速度比預期的要快。公司向解決方案客戶銷售的其餘約 45% 主要由我們的自動售貨和供應商管理的庫存渠道組成。

As Erik mentioned, our gross margin for the fiscal third quarter was 42.9%, up 40 basis points sequentially from our second quarter and up 60 basis points from last year's fiscal Q3. Reported operating expenses in the third quarter were $271 million versus last year's reported operating expenses of $257 million. Adjusted for acquisition-related costs, adjusted operating expenses were $271 million or 28.3% of net sales versus last year's adjusted operating expenses of $257 million or 29.7% of net sales. This represents a 140 basis point reduction in adjusted OpEx to sales year-over-year.

正如 Erik 所說，我們第三財季的毛利率為 42.9%，比第二季度環比增長 40 個基點，比去年第三財季增長 60 個基點。第三季度報告的運營費用為 2.71 億美元，而去年報告的運營費用為 2.57 億美元。調整收購相關成本後，調整後的運營費用為 2.71 億美元，占淨銷售額的 28.3%，而去年調整後的運營費用為 2.57 億美元，占淨銷售額的 29.7%。這意味著調整後的 OpEx 銷售額同比減少 140 個基點。

We incurred approximately $3.3 million of restructuring and other costs in the quarter as compared to $1.3 million in the prior year quarter. Our reported operating margin was 14.3% compared to 14.8% in the same period last year. As you may recall, included in last year's Q3 operating margin was a $20.8 million impairment loss recovery. Adjusted for restructuring and acquisition-related costs as well as the prior year's impairment loss recovery, adjusted operating margin was 14.6% as compared to adjusted operating margin of 12.6%, a 200 basis point improvement year-over-year. And as Erik mentioned earlier, that resulted in an adjusted incremental margin for our third quarter of just over 33%. That puts us at a year-to-date incremental margin of 24%. So we feel confident we will exceed our original fiscal 2022 incremental margin goal of 20%.

我們在本季度發生了大約 330 萬美元的重組和其他成本，而去年同期為 130 萬美元。我們報告的營業利潤率為 14.3%，而去年同期為 14.8%。您可能還記得，去年第三季度的營業利潤率包括 2080 萬美元的減值損失恢復。調整重組和收購相關成本以及上一年的減值損失恢復後，調整後的營業利潤率為 14.6%，而調整後的營業利潤率為 12.6%，同比提高 200 個基點。正如 Erik 之前提到的，這導致我們第三季度的調整後增量利潤率略高於 33%。這使我們的年初至今增量利潤率為 24%。因此，我們相信我們將超過我們最初的 2022 財年增量利潤率目標 20%。

Reported earnings per share were $1.78 as compared to $1.68 in the same prior year period. Adjusted for restructuring and acquisition-related costs as well as the prior year's impairment loss recovery, adjusted earnings per share were $1.82 as compared to adjusted earnings per share of $1.42 in the prior year period, an increase of 28%. This is a result of our execution at all levels, sales performance, gross margin and OpEx leverage.

報告的每股收益為 1.78 美元，而去年同期為 1.68 美元。調整重組和收購相關成本以及上一年的減值損失恢復後，調整後的每股收益為 1.82 美元，而去年同期的調整後每股收益為 1.42 美元，增長了 28%。這是我們在各個層面的執行、銷售業績、毛利率和運營支出槓桿的結果。

Turning to the balance sheet. You can see that as of the end of the fiscal third quarter, we were carrying $680 million of inventory, up $22 million from Q2's balance of $658 million. The inventory build is consistent with our double-digit revenue growth, the ongoing supply chain disruptions and the continuing inflation.

轉向資產負債表。您可以看到，截至第三財季末，我們的庫存為 6.8 億美元，比第二季度的 6.58 億美元增加了 2200 萬美元。庫存增加與我們兩位數的收入增長、持續的供應鏈中斷和持續的通貨膨脹相一致。

Accounts receivables are also rising with the current sales growth. As expected, we saw a sequential improvement in our cash flow conversion or operating cash flow divided by net income. Q3 cash conversion was 78% compared to slightly negative cash conversion last quarter and 22% conversion for last year's Q3. Our capital expenditures were $14 million in the third quarter.

隨著當前銷售額的增長，應收賬款也在增加。正如預期的那樣，我們看到我們的現金流轉換或經營現金流除以淨收入連續改善。第三季度現金轉換率為 78%，而上一季度的現金轉換率為 78%，而去年第三季度的現金轉換率為 22%。我們第三季度的資本支出為 1400 萬美元。

Moving ahead to Slide 7, you can see the uses of working capital also impacted our free cash flow, which came in at $64 million for the current quarter as compared to $3 million in the prior year quarter. As discussed last quarter, we expect cash conversion to continue improving, and we remain on track for the full year fiscal 2022 cash conversion to reach approximately 70% to 80%.

轉到幻燈片 7，您可以看到營運資金的使用也影響了我們的自由現金流，本季度的自由現金流為 6400 萬美元，而去年同期為 300 萬美元。正如上個季度所討論的，我們預計現金轉換將繼續改善，我們仍有望實現 2022 財年全年現金轉換達到約 70% 至 80%。

Our total debt at the end of the fiscal third quarter was $790 million, reflecting a $45 million decrease from our second quarter. As for the composition of our debt, roughly 56% was floating rate debt and the other 44% was fixed rate debt. Cash and cash equivalents were $29 million, resulting in net debt of $761 million at the end of the quarter, down from $794 million at the end of the second quarter.

我們在第三財季末的總債務為 7.9 億美元，比第二季度減少了 4500 萬美元。至於我們的債務構成，大約 56% 是浮動利率債務，另外 44% 是固定利率債務。現金和現金等價物為 2900 萬美元，導致本季度末的淨債務為 7.61 億美元，低於第二季度末的 7.94 億美元。

I will now provide an update on our Mission Critical productivity goals. You may recall that our updated cost savings goal for fiscal 2023 is a minimum of $100 million versus our fiscal 2019 cost base. As you can see on Slide 8, our cumulative savings through fiscal 2021 were $60 million, and we had invested roughly $22 million over that same period. In our fiscal third quarter, we achieved additional savings of $4 million and invested another $2 million. That brings our year-to-date savings and investments to $20 million and $13 million, respectively. We fully expect to achieve $25 million in gross savings and reach $15 million of investments for fiscal 2022, and we remain on target to hit at least $100 million of gross cost savings by fiscal 2023.

我現在將提供有關我們的關鍵任務生產力目標的更新。您可能還記得，與我們 2019 財年的成本基礎相比，我們更新的 2023 財年成本節約目標至少為 1 億美元。正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣，我們到 2021 財年的累計節省為 6000 萬美元，同期我們投資了大約 2200 萬美元。在我們的第三財季，我們額外節省了 400 萬美元並投資了 200 萬美元。這使我們年初至今的儲蓄和投資分別達到 2000 萬美元和 1300 萬美元。我們完全預計到 2022 財年將實現 2500 萬美元的總節省並達到 1500 萬美元的投資，並且我們仍然實現到 2023 財年實現至少 1 億美元的總成本節省的目標。

Before I turn it back to Erik, let me share a few comments on our fiscal fourth quarter expectations. Keep in mind that this fiscal year includes a 53rd week, so there will be an extra 5 selling days in the quarter. That extra week of sales is expected to carry a roughly 20% OpEx to sales ratio.

在我把它轉回 Erik 之前，讓我分享一些關於我們第四財季預期的評論。請記住，本財年包括第 53 週，因此本季度將額外增加 5 個銷售日。預計額外一周的銷售額將帶來大約 20% 的運營支出與銷售額的比率。

On an ADS basis, we expect to continue growing at a double-digit pace for the quarter. Sequentially, we anticipate gross margins will likely see the typical seasonal headwinds as the benefit of the latest price increase will more or less be offset by a lower rebate accrual and increased purchase costs. We also expect to continue leveraging our strong growth, such that incremental margins, while not at the level of our Q3, should still be in the mid-20s. All of that should get us comfortably into the top tier of our fiscal 2022 annual operating margin framework, which you can see on Slide 9.

在 ADS 的基礎上，我們預計本季度將繼續以兩位數的速度增長。因此，我們預計毛利率可能會出現典型的季節性逆風，因為最新價格上漲的好處將或多或少被較低的應計回扣和增加的購買成本所抵消。我們還預計將繼續利用我們的強勁增長，使得增量利潤率雖然沒有達到我們第三季度的水平，但仍應在 20 年代中期。所有這些都應該讓我們輕鬆進入我們 2022 財年年度營業利潤率框架的頂層，您可以在幻燈片 9 上看到這一框架。

Last point on Q4. The numbers I just referenced are on an organic basis, excluding the impact of Engman-Taylor. Let me provide some color on Engman-Taylor. With annual sales of roughly $60 million, the business will be about 30 basis points dilutive to our gross and operating margins in the fourth quarter, roughly neutral to EPS in fiscal '22 and accretive to EPS thereafter. More importantly, it's expected to achieve an ROIC above our weighted average cost of capital in the first full year of operations.

第四季度的最後一點。我剛剛引用的數字是有機的，不包括 Engman-Taylor 的影響。讓我提供一些關於 Engman-Taylor 的顏色。由於年銷售額約為 6000 萬美元，該業務將在第四季度稀釋我們的毛利率和營業利潤率約 30 個基點，與 22 財年的每股收益大致中性，此後將增加每股收益。更重要的是，它有望在運營的第一年實現高於我們加權平均資本成本的投資回報率。

One final area I'd like to discuss, as Erik mentioned, and we are all aware, many are concerned about the economy. First, let me reiterate that we currently do not see signs of a slowdown. But if a slowdown were to occur, we are well positioned to weather the storm. Our balance sheet remains strong. And as we've shown numerous times historically, when the economy slows, we generate strong cash flow as working capital becomes a source of funds. This enables us to strategically invest through the downturn.

正如 Erik 提到的，我想討論的最後一個領域，我們都知道，許多人都關心經濟。首先，讓我重申，我們目前沒有看到放緩的跡象。但是，如果經濟放緩，我們已經做好了抵御風暴的準備。我們的資產負債表依然強勁。正如我們在歷史上多次展示的那樣，當經濟放緩時，我們會產生強勁的現金流，因為營運資金成為資金來源。這使我們能夠在經濟低迷時期進行戰略投資。

In addition, through Mission Critical, we have already built momentum, removing structural costs from our business and plan to continue doing so. Finally, our growth initiatives are still ramping and should continue to fuel growth above the IP index under any economic scenario. For all of these reasons, we feel well positioned regardless of the environment.

此外，通過關鍵任務，我們已經建立了勢頭，從我們的業務中消除了結構性成本，併計劃繼續這樣做。最後，我們的增長計劃仍在加速，並且在任何經濟情景下都應繼續推動 IP 指數以上的增長。由於所有這些原因，無論環境如何，我們都感覺自己處於有利地位。

I'll now turn it back to Erik.

我現在把它轉回給 Erik。

Thank you, Kristen. Our company remains firmly in growth and execution mode. With each passing quarter, we are gaining traction. We look forward to closing the fiscal year strong with double-digit top line growth, gross margin expansion and adjusted incremental margins in the mid-20s. I want to thank our entire team for their dedication and their hard work. And we'll now open up the line for questions.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。我們公司仍然堅定地處於增長和執行模式。每過一個季度，我們都在獲得牽引力。我們期待在 20 年代中期以兩位數的收入增長、毛利率擴張和調整後的利潤率增量以強勁的財年結束。我要感謝我們整個團隊的奉獻精神和辛勤工作。現在，我們將打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) This first question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Tommy Moll 和 Stephens。

I had planned to ask if you had seen any sign of a slowdown in the business, but now having Erik and Kristen on the record that you're not, I will -- instead of asking a third time, I'll go a different direction and ask, have you seen anything changed? So compared to last quarter when we had this conversation, have any of your end markets gotten better or worse? Has the positions with customers changed at all? You highlighted, Erik, some [inflation] fatigue. Maybe that's a little bit different. Anything that's changed would be helpful.

我本來打算問你是否看到任何業務放緩的跡象，但現在讓 Erik 和 Kristen 記錄在案，你沒有，我會——而不是第三次問，我會換一個方向並問，你有沒有看到任何變化？因此，與我們進行此對話的上個季度相比，您的任何終端市場是否變得更好或更糟？與客戶的立場是否發生了變化？埃里克，你強調了一些[通貨膨脹]疲勞。也許這有點不同。任何改變都會有所幫助。

Tommy, I would say that for the most part, most of the factors you just referenced, so demand outlook, inflation, the shortages, the lead times, are fairly similar to last quarter. I think in some ways, the change is that these headwinds that our customers and suppliers are feeling continue. And I think what that's doing is just sharpening the focus on need for productivity and need for help in our customers. There is a drumbeat for sure about, hey, we understand price increases. They're coming fast and furious from every line of the P&L. We need help offsetting them with productivity. We need help offsetting the labor shortages we're facing, which have not abated either. And there is still -- despite some of the headlines on supply chains easing, there's still real shortages and lead time delays, so we need products. So I think all of those are playing well into our favor because we can deliver on some of those things for customers. But I think it's more or less a lot of the same things that are just kind of sharpening this need for the customer.

湯米，我想說的是，在大多數情況下，你剛才提到的大部分因素，所以需求前景、通貨膨脹、短缺、交貨時間與上一季度非常相似。我認為在某些方面，變化是我們的客戶和供應商感受到的這些不利因素仍在繼續。而且我認為這樣做只是將重點放在對生產力需求和客戶幫助需求的關注上。肯定有一個鼓點，嘿，我們理解價格上漲。他們從損益表的每一行都來得又快又猛。我們需要幫助以生產力來抵消它們。我們需要幫助來抵消我們所面臨的勞動力短缺問題，這種短缺問題也沒有減輕。還有——儘管一些關於供應鏈放鬆的頭條新聞，仍然存在真正的短缺和交貨時間延遲，所以我們需要產品。所以我認為所有這些都對我們有利，因為我們可以為客戶提供其中一些東西。但我認為，或多或少有很多相同的東西，只是在某種程度上強化了客戶的這種需求。

Following up on Mission Critical, you're ahead of plan currently. So if we think this through, as it continues to evolve, do you end up with a more run rate repeatable kind of operating framework? I mean, Mission Critical was a very specific plan for a very specific starting point. But do we evolve into a more [real] process [in years]? And if the answer is yes, and (inaudible) any of the contours, is there an implied incremental that you end up in? Hypothetically, if you have an operating in production grows low single digits in a given year, is there a rough range for (inaudible). Why?

跟進關鍵任務，您目前領先於計劃。因此，如果我們仔細考慮這一點，隨著它的不斷發展，您最終會得到一種運行速度可重複性更高的操作框架嗎？我的意思是，關鍵任務是針對一個非常具體的起點的一個非常具體的計劃。但我們是否會演變成一個更 [真實] 的過程 [以年為單位]？如果答案是肯定的，並且（聽不清）任何輪廓，是否存在隱含的增量？假設，如果您的生產運營在給定年份增長低個位數，那麼（聽不清）是否有一個粗略的範圍。為什麼？

Yes, I'll break it down in a few parts. So I think first part of your question on Mission Critical. So -- we've got the official sort of originally stated Mission Critical goals ending in fiscal '23. And that's the guidance that we gave back in kind of the beginning of this journey where we're going to deliver greater than $100 million of cost savings. So absolutely on track to meet and exceed that target. So you can kind of assume at least $15 million more of savings in '23 to kind of bring us across the finish line for the originally stated Mission Critical goals.

是的，我將把它分成幾個部分。所以我認為你的問題的第一部分是關於關鍵任務的。所以——我們已經有了官方的最初聲明的關鍵任務目標，該目標在 23 財年結束。這就是我們在此旅程開始時給予的指導，我們將在此過程中節省超過 1 億美元的成本。因此，絕對有望實現並超越該目標。因此，您可以假設在 23 年至少節省 1500 萬美元，以幫助我們完成最初規定的關鍵任務目標。

But then to your point, it's not really going to end in '23. What Mission Critical is ultimately about is kind of changing the culture, changing the mindset in the company to generate continuous productivity. How much productivity, I think you kind of asked how to think about that in the context of a framework. I'd say a lot of it has to do with how much we think we need to offset in terms of what's coming at us from an inflationary perspective and also how much do we want to be able to invest every year.

但就你的觀點而言，它並不會真正在 23 年結束。關鍵任務的最終目的是改變文化，改變公司的心態以產生持續的生產力。多少生產力，我想你有點問如何在框架的背景下考慮這一點。我想說，這在很大程度上與我們認為從通脹的角度來看我們需要抵消多少以及我們希望每年能夠投資多少有關。

So no specific guidance at this point beyond '22. We'll give a little more color on our fiscal '23 framework that will come up next quarter. And at that point, hopefully, we'll have a little bit more of an understanding what might be coming at us from a macroeconomic perspective. But generally, we feel really well poised for next year. We're on track for all the Mission Critical targets, not just the cost-out target. So I feel very confident about continuing to grow at least 400 basis points above IP. We feel very good about delivering the OpEx savings, and we're already on track and ahead of schedule on the ROIC improvement. So feeling very good about where we are to close out '22 and right now, feeling optimistic about '23.

因此，在 22 年之後，目前沒有具體的指導。我們將在下個季度推出的 23 財年框架上提供更多色彩。到那時，希望我們能從宏觀經濟的角度更多地了解可能會發生什麼。但總的來說，我們對明年的比賽感覺非常好。我們正在實現所有關鍵任務目標，而不僅僅是成本目標。因此，我對繼續在 IP 之上至少增長 400 個基點感到非常有信心。我們對節省 OpEx 感到非常滿意，而且我們已經步入正軌，並提前完成了 ROIC 改進。所以對我們將在哪裡結束 22 年感覺非常好，現在對 23 年感到樂觀。

And our next question today comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair。

Nice quarter. So my first question was on inflation. I'm curious, do you think prices are starting to peak here? Or is that not clear yet?

漂亮的季度。所以我的第一個問題是關於通貨膨脹。我很好奇，你認為這裡的價格開始見頂了嗎？還是現在還不清楚？

Ryan, I would say, not clear yet. Certainly, to date, we continue to see -- we mentioned in the prepared remarks that we took an increase as recently as late in May in response to what we're seeing from suppliers. So I would say we have not yet seen a slowdown in the rate and pace of increases coming from our suppliers with, Ryan, as you know, is sort of for us the leading indicator. And I think that's because this inflation wave is driven beyond just commodities. It's driven by so many other factors, oil and fuel, wage rates and what's going on. There's multiple variables here. So, so far, no slowdown.

瑞安，我會說，還不清楚。當然，迄今為止，我們繼續看到 - 我們在準備好的評論中提到，我們最近在 5 月下旬進行了增加，以回應我們從供應商那裡看到的情況。所以我想說，我們還沒有看到供應商的增長速度和速度放緩，正如你所知，Ryan 對我們來說是領先指標。我認為那是因為這種通脹浪潮不僅僅局限於商品。它是由許多其他因素驅動的，包括石油和燃料、工資率以及正在發生的事情。這裡有多個變量。所以，到目前為止，沒有放緩。

Okay. that's kind of what I thought you'd say. And then turning to gross margin. How much did price cost help gross margin in the quarter, the increase [here of] 60 bps?

好的。這就是我想你會說的。然後轉向毛利率。價格成本對本季度的毛利率有多大幫助，增加了 60 個基點？

Yes. So year-over-year, the way to think about the margin improvement of 60 bps is I'd attribute about half of it to favorable price offsetting purchase cost inflation and any mix headwind and then about the other half from increased vendor rebates.

是的。因此，與去年同期相比，考慮利潤率提高 60 個基點的方法是，我將其中大約一半歸因於抵消購買成本通脹和任何混合逆風的有利價格，然後將另一半歸因於增加的供應商回扣。

Got it. So I'm just trying to get a sense for this year how much price cost is helping your gross margin. Could you help us there? And should we view that as onetime because COGS will eventually catch up, so there might be a little give back as we look out into '23? Is that the right framework?

知道了。所以我只是想了解今年有多少價格成本有助於你的毛利率。你能幫助我們嗎？我們是否應該將其視為一次性的，因為 COGS 最終會趕上來，所以當我們展望 23 年時可能會有一些回饋？這是正確的框架嗎？

Let me take you maybe Q3 to Q4, so you can kind of cap how to think about fiscal '22. So if you're thinking about sequential gross margin from Q3 to Q4, the first thing I'd tell you is you've got to account for the seasonal mix headwind that we typically see at this time of year, and it has to do with the product mix of summer goods. So think about 50 to 60 basis points roughly of headwind from that dynamic. Then you've got pricing, which we do expect to remain positive. We'll get a little bit of a boost from that small May increase that we took. But then you have offsetting that increased purchase cost inflation and a decrease sequentially in vendor rebates. And so that's kind of the organic Q3 to Q4 changes.

讓我帶你去 Q3 到 Q4，這樣你就可以對 22 財年的看法有所限制。因此，如果您正在考慮從第三季度到第四季度的連續毛利率，我要告訴您的第一件事是您必須考慮我們通常在一年中這個時候看到的季節性混合逆風，它必須這樣做搭配夏季商品的產品組合。因此，從這種動態中大致考慮 50 到 60 個基點的逆風。然後你就有了定價，我們確實希望它保持積極。我們將從五月的小幅增長中獲得一點點提振。但是，您已經抵消了增加的採購成本通脹和供應商回扣的依次減少。這就是第三季度到第四季度的有機變化。

And then on top of that, I would layer in a headwind from Engman-Taylor, about 30 basis points approximately. And for '23, I'd say too early right now to guide, Ryan. I mean, like Erik just commented, we don't know what's going on with inflation yet. And really of all the variables that we're looking at to understand how fiscal '23 might shake out, price cost is definitely one of the biggest ones, and much of that is contingent on what happens with the timing of the inflation cycle.

然後最重要的是，我會遇到來自 Engman-Taylor 的逆風，大約 30 個基點。對於 23 年，我說現在指導還為時過早，瑞恩。我的意思是，就像埃里克剛剛評論的那樣，我們還不知道通貨膨脹發生了什麼。實際上，在我們為了解 23 財年可能如何擺脫的所有變量中，價格成本絕對是最大的變量之一，其中大部分取決於通貨膨脹週期的時間安排。

Okay. No, that all makes sense. And I was really just trying to get a sense. My feeling is price has helped the business, but not maybe as much as we've seen in the past. So is that the right -- it's been sort of a modest boost, not something that was overly impactful to gross margins.

好的。不，這一切都說得通。我真的只是想了解一下。我的感覺是價格對業務有所幫助，但可能不如我們過去看到的那麼多。那是正確的-這是一種適度的提振，而不是對毛利率的過度影響。

Well, I think organically, if you think about being able to improve margins, fiscal '22 versus fiscal '21, so we're going a few years now actually with keeping flat or slightly up margins. And that is a change in trajectory from what we've seen the business do in the last several years.

好吧，我認為有機地，如果你考慮能夠提高利潤率，22 財年與 21 財年相比，所以我們現在實際上要保持利潤率持平或略微上升幾年。這與我們在過去幾年中看到的業務發展軌跡相比發生了變化。

And to be able to do that, it basically means we're getting enough of a favorable spread from price cost that it offsets that mix headwind that we've kind of been seeing in the business steadily over the past several years as some of our growth initiatives, which are margin headwinds, as those continue to grow. So we're getting enough price cost that it's covering that mix headwind.

為了能夠做到這一點，這基本上意味著我們從價格成本中獲得了足夠的有利差價，它抵消了過去幾年我們在業務中穩步看到的混合逆風，因為我們的一些增長舉措，這是利潤的逆風，因為這些舉措繼續增長。因此，我們獲得了足夠的價格成本來應對這種混合逆風。

So in that regard, I would say we do feel really good about the price contribution of the business. I don't know how far back you have to go to really see price maybe doing better than that. I don't know if Erik wants to add any context from the kind of era before I got here. But we're really pleased with the price cost outcome.

因此，在這方面，我想說我們確實對業務的價格貢獻感到非常滿意。我不知道你必須走多遠才能真正看到價格可能比這更好。我不知道 Erik 是否想在我來到這里之前添加任何時代背景。但我們對價格成本結果感到非常滿意。

I think the only other thing I'd add, Ryan, is this time around, there is, look, obviously, we're benefiting from a macro environment, the inflation that's out of our control. But I would say relative to past cycles, there is more work going on in the company to control our destiny.

瑞安，我認為我唯一要補充的另一件事是，這一次，顯然，我們正在從宏觀環境中受益，通貨膨脹是我們無法控制的。但我想說，相對於過去的周期，公司還有更多的工作要做來控制我們的命運。

So we've talked about there's a big pricing initiative inside the company to sort of build up the muscle in our sales organization on how to have that discussion with customers and how to sell through price. So that even if, at some point, inflation is going to slow, how do we still make sure we're extracting value, because we are delivering the goods for the customer in terms of productivity and product availability. So that's one initiative.

所以我們談到了公司內部有一個很大的定價計劃，以在我們的銷售組織中增強如何與客戶進行討論以及如何通過價格銷售的力量。因此，即使在某個時候通貨膨脹會放緩，我們如何仍然確保我們正在提取價值，因為我們在生產力和產品可用性方面為客戶提供商品。這是一項倡議。

CCSG, we mentioned in the prepared remarks, it's getting amped-up focus under Kim and team in the field. That is a margin-accretive piece of our business that we're starting to see momentum. There's focus going on, on private brands inside the company and moving the mix of business there. So there are things on the self-help front, I think probably more so than I would have said during the past pricing cycle, Ryan.

CCSG，我們在準備好的評論中提到，在 Kim 和該領域的團隊的領導下，它得到了更多的關注。這是我們業務中可以增加利潤的部分，我們開始看到勢頭。重點放在公司內部的自有品牌上，並將業務組合轉移到那裡。所以在自助方面有些事情，我認為可能比我在過去的定價週期中所說的要多，瑞恩。

And our next question today comes from David Manthey of Baird.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 David Manthey。

I was wondering if you could give us some insight into your thinking as you're developing the fiscal '23 framework potentially. I know you're not going to give us details. But is the plan, regardless of what you see out in the market. You'll have a category for sales declines? Or will you just base the buckets on how you're budgeting and then adjust later, if conditions change, like you did with the upside this year?

我想知道您是否可以在您潛在地開發 23 財年框架時讓我們深入了解您的想法。我知道你不會告訴我們細節的。但是，無論您在市場上看到什麼，都是計劃。你會有一個銷售下降的類別嗎？或者你會根據你的預算方式來確定桶，然後在情況發生變化時進行調整，就像你今年對上漲所做的那樣？

Yes. And I should say I think it's hi [quin] not (inaudible). So for...

是的。我應該說我認為這是嗨 [quin] 不是（聽不清）。因此對於...

It's Dave.

是戴夫。

Oh, might be and my --- so fiscal '23 framework, Dave, a couple of thoughts. We're obviously going to be modeling a lot of scenarios. There's a lot of uncertainty out there right now. We talked a little bit about what happens with the inflationary cycle and price cost being one of the biggest factors that could move the needle for us in '23. But generally, we're trying to understand what is going to happen with the Industrial Production index, being representative of what we would say is market growth.

哦，可能是和我的 --- 23 財政年度框架，戴夫，有幾個想法。我們顯然要為很多場景建模。現在有很多不確定性。我們談到了通脹週期會發生什麼，而價格成本是可能在 23 年為我們帶來影響的最大因素之一。但總的來說，我們試圖了解工業生產指數會發生什麼，它代表了我們所說的市場增長。

And then what's our ability to gain share and take price on top of that. So that's like some of the really big buckets that we're modeling and thinking through.

然後我們獲得份額並在此之上定價的能力是什麼。所以這就像我們正在建模和思考的一些非常大的桶。

And we have a lot of positive momentum heading into '23 that we feel really good about allowing us to capture share, regardless of what happens to the market. So we're very focused on controlling our own destiny and delivering that at least 400 basis points of growth above IP, regardless of what the IP index actually does.

進入 23 年，我們有很多積極的勢頭，無論市場發生什麼，我們都對讓我們獲得份額感到非常高興。因此，我們非常專注於控制自己的命運，並在 IP 之上實現至少 400 個基點的增長，而不管 IP 指數實際上做了什麼。

And obviously, if we were to head into a down scenario, some of our ability to continue expanding margin gets a little bit harder than if we get some favorable IP growth. But generally, again, very optimistic right now with what we see the momentum in the business and definitely committing to hitting those Mission Critical goals for '23, regardless of the circumstances.

顯然，如果我們要進入下行情景，我們繼續擴大利潤率的一些能力會比我們獲得一些有利的 IP 增長要困難一些。但總的來說，現在對我們看到的業務勢頭非常樂觀，並且無論情況如何，都絕對致力於實現 23 年的關鍵任務目標。

Okay. So it sounds like you'll base the buckets on some outlook for IP and then adjust from there is sort of the view.

好的。因此，聽起來您將根據 IP 的一些前景來建立存儲桶，然後從某種觀點進行調整。

Yes. Yes, big building blocks, IP is a benchmark for market, what do we think is going to happen on price cost, share gain and then productivity and inflation.

是的。是的，重要的組成部分，IP 是市場的基準，我們認為價格成本、份額收益以及生產力和通貨膨脹會發生什麼。

Yes. Okay. Great. And then as it relates to Mission Critical and some of these cost savings, in a recent general investor deck, you [cited] that you still have 26 branch locations. And I'm wondering, does that number gravitate to zero over time? And if not, could you talk about why? If so, could you talk about the time frame? And then if the savings from those closures is included in your Mission Critical targets?

是的。好的。偉大的。然後，由於它與關鍵任務和其中一些成本節省有關，在最近的一般投資者報告中，您 [引用] 您仍然擁有 26 個分支機構。我想知道，隨著時間的推移，這個數字會趨於零嗎？如果沒有，你能談談為什麼嗎？如果是這樣，你能談談時間框架嗎？然後，是否將這些關閉帶來的節省包含在您的關鍵任務目標中？

Yes. So Dave, the 26 now is -- we feel pretty good about that number. We would imagine that stays stable. Obviously, we did a lot of big work around the branch restructuring last year, which took out many of our branches. The ones that are left behind are really supporting some of the different kind of businesses within MSC. And we feel like 26 is the right number. So not contemplating any more savings from any kind of material branch restructuring or branch closures.

是的。所以戴夫，現在是 26 - 我們對這個數字感覺很好。我們可以想像它保持穩定。很明顯，去年我們圍繞分支機構重組做了很多大工作，我們的許多分支機構都被淘汰了。留下的那些真正支持MSC內部的一些不同類型的業務。我們覺得 26 是正確的數字。因此，不要考慮從任何類型的重大分支機構重組或分支機構關閉中節省更多。

And our next question today comes from Chris Dankert with Loop Capital.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Chris Dankert。

I guess you mentioned there's ongoing lead time extension, supply chain issues kind of continuing a pace here. I guess, how do we translate that for MSC? Kind of what's the fill rate today look like versus that near-98% level we were seeing kind of pre-pandemic?

我猜你提到了持續的交貨時間延長，供應鏈問題在這裡繼續發展。我想，我們如何為 MSC 翻譯它？今天的填充率與我們在大流行前看到的接近 98% 的水平相比如何？

Yes. Chris, so what I would say is there's definitely still supply chain issues. We're seeing a difference in our -- compared to sort of pre-COVID fill rates, but the difference for us is very marginal. Whereas compared to the local distributors, it's a really wide gap between pre-pandemic and now.

是的。克里斯，所以我要說的是肯定仍然存在供應鏈問題。與 COVID 之前的填充率相比，我們看到了我們的差異，但對我們來說差異非常小。與本地經銷商相比，大流行前和現在之間的差距確實很大。

So we actually feel in some ways like on a relative basis, the advantage has grown. Although yes, when we look at our fill rate and our service metrics, Chris, you could see the difference. We're still not back. We're up from where we were at the lows a few quarters ago, but still not back to pre-pandemic.

所以我們實際上在某些方面感覺，相對而言，優勢已經增長。雖然是的，但當我們查看我們的填充率和服務指標時，克里斯，你可以看到差異。我們還沒有回來。我們從幾個季度前的低點回升，但仍未回到大流行前。

I will point out one nuance, which is we look at it a couple of different ways, what we call first pass and second pass. So first pass would be, is the product located in the location that's closest to the customer? And there, we see a pretty sizable difference. The second metric would be second pass, which is do we have the item anywhere in our network?

我將指出一個細微差別，即我們以幾種不同的方式看待它，我們稱之為第一遍和第二遍。所以第一關是，產品是否位於離客戶最近的位置？在那裡，我們看到了相當大的差異。第二個指標是第二次通過，即我們的網絡中是否有該項目？

And for that second pass measure, the difference is very marginal. And this has been the case through COVID. So while there's some freight expense to be borne by moving things around, we're generally, more often than not, able to deliver for the customer.

對於第二次通過的措施，差異非常小。 COVID就是這種情況。因此，雖然搬家需要承擔一些運費，但我們通常能夠為客戶送貨。

Got it. And that's certainly been such an issue, having product on hand, in terms of market share conversion. So glad to hit that, that kind of continues to recover. We're not quite there yet. And then just kind of a point of clarification. I didn't see it in the deck. In-plant growth in the quarter, I assume that's still kind of 9% of total sales. We're still seeing near 70% growth in that business today?

知道了。就市場份額轉換而言，手頭有產品，這肯定是一個問題。很高興擊中那個，那種繼續恢復。我們還沒有完全做到。然後只是澄清一點。我沒有在甲板上看到它。本季度的廠內增長，我認為這仍然佔總銷售額的 9%。我們今天仍然看到該業務增長近 70% 嗎？

That's approaching 10% of sales actually this quarter.

這實際上接近本季度銷售額的 10%。

And our next question today comes from Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Hamzah Mazari 和 Jefferies。

This is Hans Hoffman filling in for Hamzah Mazari. I know you guys touched on it a bit in your prepared remarks, but could you just talk about what you're seeing in metalworking markets from a growth perspective? And then just maybe talk about some of the competitive dynamics there?

這是 Hans Hoffman 為 Hamzah Mazari 填補的空缺。我知道你們在準備好的發言中提到了一點，但是您能從增長的角度談談您在金屬加工市場中看到的情況嗎？然後也許只是談談那裡的一些競爭動態？

Yes, sure. So in terms of end markets, the general comment I would say is we're seeing pretty much broad-based strength across most of the verticals that are metalworking-related. Certainly, you can imagine with oil prices being high, that area of the business is doing a lot better than it was years ago. Auto and [aero] are certainly on their way back and growing, and we still feel like there's plenty of room in both of those. General machining, strong. So environment is good.

是的，當然。因此，就終端市場而言，我想說的一般性評論是，我們在大多數與金屬加工相關的垂直領域都看到了相當廣泛的實力。當然，您可以想像在油價高企的情況下，該業務領域的表現比幾年前要好得多。 Auto 和 [aero] 肯定正在回歸和增長，我們仍然覺得這兩者都有很大的空間。普通機械加工，堅固。所以環境很好。

And then in terms of competitive dynamic, metalworking, it's a lot like the rest of the industrial supplies in the MRO market space, which is that it's highly fragmented. So you think about it across -- this is now beyond metalworking, but across the entire industrial landscape, the top 50 distributors have roughly 30% share. The metalworking would sort of be an analog to that. And so it's fragmented, and there's a lot of market share to be had from local and regional distributors that aren't faring quite as well right now.

然後在競爭動態、金屬加工方面，它很像 MRO 市場空間中的其他工業用品，這是高度分散的。所以你想一想——這現在已經超越了金屬加工，但在整個工業領域，前 50 名分銷商擁有大約 30% 的份額。金屬加工有點類似。所以它是分散的，當地和區域分銷商有很多市場份額，目前表現不佳。

That's helpful. And I know you guys -- you mentioned the Engman-Taylor acquisition, but could you just talk about your M&A pipeline going forward? And if you're seeing any changes to private company valuations? And then how you're thinking about capital allocation going forward?

這很有幫助。我知道你們——你們提到了對 Engman-Taylor 的收購，但你們能談談你們未來的併購渠道嗎？如果你看到私人公司估值有任何變化？那麼您如何看待未來的資本配置？

Yes, sure. So on the M&A front, I would say in terms of our outlook, and we've been pretty consistent for a while now, which is that particularly as it relates to anything really big and really sort of outside of our core business, the bar would have to be really high, that we are focused on a pipeline within our core business here. And we have a couple of things that we consider to be in our core.

是的，當然。所以在併購方面，我想說的是我們的前景，我們已經有一段時間了，特別是因為它涉及到我們核心業務之外的任何非常大的事情，酒吧必須非常高，我們在這裡專注於我們核心業務中的管道。我們有幾件事我們認為是我們的核心。

The one change I'd call out is it does feel like the pipeline and the degree of conversations are more robust. I think there's probably a lot of private owners just thinking about life, about the future of the business, et cetera. So I think the pipeline is pretty robust. Again, they would be of the more or less of the smaller variety inside of our core. I mean, Engman-Taylor is a great example. It's a great team. It's in an MSA where we'd like to see more penetration. They've been a leading competitor for a long time. The values line up between Rick and MSC. So a great example of what we would hope to find and continue to build on.

我要指出的一個變化是它確實感覺管道和對話的程度更加強大。我認為可能有很多私人業主只是考慮生活，考慮企業的未來等等。所以我認為管道非常強大。同樣，它們或多或少屬於我們核心內部的較小種類。我的意思是，Engman-Taylor 就是一個很好的例子。這是一個很棒的團隊。它在我們希望看到更多滲透的 MSA 中。長期以來，他們一直是領先的競爭對手。值在 Rick 和 MSC 之間排列。這是我們希望找到並繼續發展的一個很好的例子。

In terms of capital allocation. Look, we're sitting now at about 1.5x leverage, which is a very comfortable place to be, particularly as Kristen had mentioned, we would expect to start to see cash generation really picking up as working capital kind of stabilizes. So we think we have plenty of dry powder here.

在資本配置方面。看，我們現在的槓桿率約為 1.5 倍，這是一個非常舒適的地方，特別是正如 Kristen 所提到的，隨著營運資金的穩定，我們預計將開始看到現金產生真正回升。所以我們認為我們這裡有很多乾粉。

We're going to stay pretty disciplined. First priorities for us are organic reinvestment into the business to the extent we like what we see in terms of the return prospects. And of late, our confidence is really building based on the performance. Closely -- close second would be the ordinary dividend. And then from there, we look at M&A, we'll look at return of cash to shareholders, i.e., buyback on a risk-adjusted basis.

我們將保持紀律性。對我們來說，首要任務是對業務進行有機再投資，以達到我們喜歡的回報前景。最近，我們的信心確實建立在表現的基礎上。緊密 - 緊隨其後的是普通股息。然後從那裡開始，我們關注併購，我們將關注對股東的現金回報，即風險調整後的回購。

And the only other comment I'll make is we are mindful of rising interest rates. So from our standpoint, in a high interest rate environment, it doesn't change anything other than that the hurdle rate effectively goes up if we're going to deploy cash.

我要說的唯一其他評論是我們注意到利率上升。因此，從我們的角度來看，在高利率環境中，除瞭如果我們要部署現金，門檻利率實際上會上升，它不會改變任何事情。

And our next question today comes from Ken Newman at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Ken Newman。

So first question, Erik, I appreciate the comments about the macro uncertainty and your ability to adjust quickly if the environment changes. We've talked a little bit about -- I think there was an earlier question about what structural incremental margins could look like, just given all the work you've done in Mission Critical. But I'm also curious if you have a viewpoint on what structural decrementals could look like relative to past down cycles.

所以第一個問題，埃里克，我很欣賞關於宏觀不確定性的評論以及你在環境變化時快速調整的能力。我們已經談了一點——我認為之前有一個關於結構性增量利潤可能是什麼樣子的問題，只是考慮到您在關鍵任務中所做的所有工作。但我也很好奇你是否對結構性遞減相對於過去的下行週期有什麼看法。

Yes. Ken, I can take that one. So at this point, we're not even modeling a scenario where we need to worry about decrementals for next year. If things were to really erode before we give the framework for '23, we would provide some guidance on that. But right now, it's not something that we're even looking at.

是的。肯，我可以拿那個。所以在這一點上，我們甚至沒有模擬一個我們需要擔心明年遞減的場景。如果在我們給出 23 年的框架之前事情真的被侵蝕了，我們會提供一些指導。但現在，這不是我們甚至在看的東西。

But I guess to the point, though, you would expect that even in a downturn, an eventual downturn in the cycle, you'd expect those decrementals to be better than what you've experienced in the past, right? Just given on a structural cost out over the last 2 or 3 years.

但我想，儘管如此，你會期望即使在經濟衰退中，最終在周期中出現低迷，你會期望這些遞減量比你過去經歷的要好，對吧？剛剛給出了過去 2 或 3 年的結構性成本。

Yes. Yes, absolutely. Yes. I think that's where we'll really see a benefit from all the mission-critical work that's been done over the last couple of years already in terms of structural cost takeout. We're at $85 million roughly at the end of -- as of the end of this year approximately. That will certainly help us. And then Erik also mentioned before, just a lot of things that we're doing differently inside the business now that are going to allow us to weather that storm differently than MSC has in the past.

是的。是的，一點沒錯。是的。我認為這就是我們真正看到過去幾年在結構性成本支出方面已經完成的所有關鍵任務工作的好處的地方。截至今年年底，我們大約為 8500 萬美元。這肯定會對我們有所幫助。然後 Erik 之前也提到過，我們現在在業務內部做的很多事情都不同，這將使我們能夠以不同於 MSC 過去的方式度過這場風暴。

So I think a big one that we're really excited about Erik brought up earlier, but just the work we've been doing around capability development in the field, things that benefit our ability to add value to the customer kind of regardless of what the macro environment is. That would definitely make a down cycle look quite different for us than it has in the past.

因此，我認為我們對 Erik 早先提出的一個重要問題感到非常興奮，但只是我們一直在圍繞該領域的能力開發所做的工作，這些事情有利於我們為客戶增加價值的能力，不管是什麼宏觀環境是。這肯定會使我們的下行週期看起來與過去完全不同。

Is there any way that you can maybe just provide just a little bit more color as to maybe give us a framework of if decrementals were -- making up a number here, in the 20%. Is it more of like a mid-teen type of range? Or is that you're still kind of doing work on that?

有沒有什麼方法可以讓你提供更多的顏色，以便給我們一個框架，如果遞減是 - 在這裡組成一個數字，在 20% 中。它更像是一個青少年類型的範圍嗎？還是你還在做這方面的工作？

We'll give you a look at that next quarter.

我們將在下個季度給您看一下。

Okay. And then for my follow-up here. I know inflation is still a very real impact on the market today. And obviously, you're already putting in some price increases to address that here. I do think we've seen some pullback in raw material costs for some key materials though, like steel and copper. Just any color on how you think about decisions on inventory? And how do you think about the potential price cost normalization when inflation does roll?

好的。然後在這裡進行後續跟進。我知道通貨膨脹仍然對今天的市場產生非常實際的影響。顯然，你已經在增加一些價格來解決這個問題。我確實認為我們已經看到一些關鍵材料的原材料成本有所回落，比如鋼鐵和銅。關於您如何看待庫存決策的任何顏色？當通貨膨脹確實發生時，您如何看待潛在的價格成本正常化？

Ken, so look, at some point, inflation. Obviously, we track commodities very carefully. And that is part of the buying formulas. We look, our buyers are tracking commodities and indexes. What I will say is, as I mentioned earlier, relative to prior cycles, there's other factors beyond just the commodities that are influencing our suppliers raising prices for now.

肯，所以看看，在某些時候，通貨膨脹。顯然，我們非常仔細地跟踪商品。這是購買公式的一部分。我們看，我們的買家正在跟踪商品和指數。我要說的是，正如我之前提到的，相對於之前的周期，除了商品之外，還有其他因素正在影響我們的供應商目前提高價格。

Look, at some point, no question, the music will stop. And the inflation cycle, that could be next quarter, it could be next year, it could be in 3 years, 5 years. We have no idea. At some point, that will stop. And certainly, price cost will come under more pressure than it is now. And look, I think it's why one of the comments we made earlier was we're focused on initiatives in our control. That even in an environment where we're not capturing as much in price, that we have the ability to offset more pressure on price cost through our own initiatives, and I mentioned a few of those earlier.

看，在某些時候，毫無疑問，音樂會停止。通脹週期，可能是下個季度，可能是明年，可能是 3 年，5 年。我們不知道。在某個時候，這將停止。當然，價格成本將承受比現在更大的壓力。看，我認為這就是為什麼我們之前發表的評論之一是我們專注於我們控制的舉措。即使在我們沒有捕捉到那麼多價格的環境中，我們也有能力通過我們自己的舉措來抵消更多的價格成本壓力，我之前提到過其中的一些。

And our next question today comes from Pat Baumann at JPMorgan.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Pat Baumann。

Congrats on the strong quarter. Just a first question is on price. When you look in the fourth quarter, I think you said you put through late May increase. I'm just curious what do you expect that price contribution to be to sales? Will it be up from the 6% you just put up in the third quarter given that increase?

祝賀強勁的季度。第一個問題是價格。當你看第四季度時，我想你說你完成了 5 月下旬的增長。我只是好奇你認為價格對銷售的貢獻是什麼？考慮到這一增長，它會比你剛剛在第三季度提出的 6% 有所上升嗎？

And then as you look into next year, what's the carryover now based on kind of what you've announced? And then I'm sorry, this is kind of a little bit of a long question, just along those lines. As you think about next year, is there some bucket of your product offering that could see pricing move down to that last question if commodities deflate from here? Or is all of that price you put through considered by you to be kind of sticky such that you wouldn't give any of that back in that scenario? Sorry for the long question.

然後當你展望明年時，根據你宣布的內容，現在的結轉是什麼？然後我很抱歉，這是一個有點長的問題，就在這些方面。當您考慮明年時，如果商品從這裡開始下跌，您的產品是否有一些產品可以看到價格下降到最後一個問題？還是您認為您付出的所有價格都具有粘性，以至於在那種情況下您不會給予任何回報？對不起，很長的問題。

Good. Okay. So there's like an ABC, so let me start off. We'll go in the near term, how about -- so near term, your first question, Pat, was about Q4. Look, so you could do the math on. And what we show in the op stats, we give you a sense of price. And we always call it price/mix because it's tough to decouple the 2 all the time, but it's in that growth decomposition.

好的。好的。所以就像一個ABC，讓我開始吧。我們將在短期內進行，怎麼樣 - 短期內，Pat，您的第一個問題是關於第四季度的。看，所以你可以做數學。而我們在運營統計中顯示的內容，我們會給您一種價格感。我們總是稱其為價格/組合，因為很難一直將兩者分離，但它在增長分解中。

And in our Q3, I think it was in the 5%, 5.5%, something like that range. Where does it go for Q4? It's hard to predict precisely because mix does play into it. This is sort of a living organism here and things change. But that being said, all else being equal, sure. Yes, we took -- so the increase we took in late May was low single digit. So it's not like it was huge.

在我們的第三季度，我認為它在 5%、5.5% 之類的範圍內。 Q4去哪兒了？很難準確預測，因為混音確實發揮了作用。這是一種活的有機體，事情會發生變化。但話雖這麼說，其他一切都是平等的，當然。是的，我們採取了 - 所以我們在 5 月下旬採取的增長是低個位數。所以它不像是巨大的。

But yes, if realization does what we think it should do, one would expect the price contribution in Q4 to be -- all else being equal, slightly higher than it was in Q3. That's right. So I think that was the first part of your question.

但是，是的，如果實現實現了我們認為應該做的事情，人們會期望第四季度的價格貢獻是——在其他條件相同的情況下，略高於第三季度。這是正確的。所以我認為這是你問題的第一部分。

The second part is the carryover. I think the way to think about that is we will get a part of the year. So for the larger increase we took in January, we are going to get that for the first sort of carry over the first part of fiscal '23. And then for the late May increase, we will get a carryover for roughly 3 quarters of fiscal '23.

第二部分是結轉。我認為考慮這一點的方式是我們將獲得一年的一部分。因此，對於我們在 1 月份進行的較大增長，我們將在 23 財年第一部分的第一種結轉中得到它。然後對於 5 月下旬的增長，我們將獲得 23 財年大約 3 個季度的結轉。

And then, of course, the other contribution would be any additional price increases that happen, which will be a function of what we see between now and September or, quite frankly, through the course of fiscal '23. I think that was the second one.

然後，當然，另一個貢獻將是發生的任何額外的價格上漲，這將是我們從現在到 9 月之間看到的情況的函數，或者坦率地說，在 23 財年的過程中。我想那是第二個。

The third one was about deflation. And certainly, commodities are going to come down. I will say, Pat, and you never say never, right? But if I look back over the course of my history in this industry, because the finished goods, the parts that we sell, the raw materials generally are a relatively small percentage of the finished product, we have not really seen cases where deflation leads to mass price reductions, which is to say, generally, pricing is sticky.

第三個是關於通貨緊縮的。當然，大宗商品將會下跌。我會說，帕特，你永遠不會說永遠，對吧？但是如果我回顧我在這個行業的歷史，因為成品，我們銷售的零件，原材料通常佔成品的比例相對較小，我們還沒有真正看到通貨緊縮導致的案例大規模降價，也就是說，一般來說，定價是有粘性的。

I think what certainly would happen is if prices commodities come down, the prospect of further price increases goes away. But it would be unlikely. And certainly, it would be a break in pattern from the past to see prices in mass come down.

我認為肯定會發生的是，如果商品價格下跌，價格進一步上漲的前景就會消失。但這不太可能。當然，看到大規模價格下跌將是過去模式的突破。

Understood. That's helpful color. I have one follow-up, and then this one is on gross margin. I guess what surprised you in the quarter? It just seemed to me like sales were kind of in line with how you thought they would play out in the quarter. So I guess I'm curious why did volume rebates come in as it -- well, maybe you had -- maybe that was planned to be where it was.

明白了。這是有用的顏色。我有一個跟進，然後這個是毛利率。我猜這個季度有什麼讓你吃驚的？在我看來，銷售額似乎與您認為他們在本季度的表現一致。所以我想我很好奇為什麼會有批量回扣 - 好吧，也許你有 - 也許那是計劃好的。

I guess that's the question. What surprised you? Because you call out price cost, you call volume rebates, but I feel like the gross margin was better sequentially than maybe internally or maybe externally people thought maybe internally as well. Just curious what surprised you.

我想這就是問題所在。什麼讓你感到驚訝？因為你提到價格成本，你稱之為數量回扣，但我覺得毛利率比內部或外部人們認為的內部可能更好。只是好奇什麼讓你感到驚訝。

And then I think you said at one point recently, you saw enough momentum that gross margins could be flat next year. I may have that wrong. If I'm wrong, just tell me you never said that. If I'm right, I guess I'm just curious, is that still the case?

然後我想你最近說過，你看到了足夠的勢頭，明年毛利率可能會持平。我可能錯了。如果我錯了，就告訴我你從來沒有這麼說過。如果我是對的，我想我只是好奇，還是這樣嗎？

So Pat, I can take the first part. I sort of start, and then I'll turn it over to Kristen, if that's good. I think what surprises, look, I think if you go back, we were thinking at the time last quarter, we were coming off of a strong sequential lift from Q1 to Q2. We felt good about that. And we felt like, "Hey, gross margin should be up a little bit from Q2 to Q3, but not a lot." So I would say you are correct. The 40 bps was a little more, probably a little more than we expected.

所以帕特，我可以參加第一部分。我先開始，然後我會把它交給克里斯汀，如果這很好的話。我認為有什麼令人驚訝的，看，我想如果你回頭看，我們在上個季度的時候在想，我們從第一季度到第二季度的強勁連續增長中走出來。我們對此感覺良好。我們覺得，“嘿，從第二季度到第三季度，毛利率應該會上升一點，但不會很多。”所以我會說你是對的。 40 bps 稍微多一點，可能比我們預期的多一點。

I'd say two things. One is, look, I mentioned we have this initiative in the field on pricing to improve realization. The results have been quite good. So I think that's one. And then two is yes. Look, we did a heavy amount of purchasing. That resulted in outsized rebates. And to some degree, we expected it, but we probably did even a little bit better there, is the two things I'd call out. And then the other point was about '23. Kristen, do you want to jump in?

我想說兩件事。一個是，看，我提到我們在定價領域有這個倡議，以提高實現。結果已經相當不錯了。所以我認為這是一個。然後兩個是肯定的。看，我們進行了大量採購。這導致了巨額的回扣。在某種程度上，我們預料到了這一點，但我們可能在那裡做得更好，這是我要指出的兩件事。然後另一點是關於'23。克里斯汀，你想跳進去嗎？

Sure. Yes. I don't believe we've commented on that specifically, Pat. I think we're looking at a variety of potential outcomes for margin next year. And obviously, the length of the inflation cycle would be a really big driver of the guidance we would provide for gross margins next year. But I'd say, given what we know of for '23, it would be a very good outcome if we were able to hold margins flat.

當然。是的。帕特，我不相信我們已經對此進行了具體評論。我認為我們正在研究明年利潤率的各種潛在結果。顯然，通脹週期的長短將是我們明年為毛利率提供指導的一個真正重要的驅動因素。但我想說，鑑於我們對 23 年的了解，如果我們能夠保持利潤率不變，那將是一個非常好的結果。

There's certainly a set of conditions under which that could happen. But that would be a really good outcome for us for next year, I would say. And we'll give some more guidance on some ranges and kind of what would affect that on the margin side when we head into the outlook for next year. And your comment was specifically on gross margins, to be clear, right, Pat?

肯定有一系列條件可以發生這種情況。但這對我們明年來說將是一個非常好的結果，我會說。當我們進入明年的前景時，我們將就一些範圍以及會影響邊際方面的因素提供更多指導。你的評論是專門針對毛利率的，要清楚，對吧，帕特？

Yes, you got it. That's exactly right, yes. That's what your answer was in response to, right?

是的，你明白了。完全正確，是的。這就是你的回答，對吧？

Yes. Just checking. As I finished talking, I was like -- I got to make sure that was a gross margin plan. Yes. That was gross margin answer.

是的。只是檢查。當我說完之後，我想——我必須確保這是一個毛利率計劃。是的。那是毛利率的答案。

Great. Great. And I mean I have one little modeling one, too. Just on the fourth quarter, you said OpEx to sales on that extra week is 20%. What do you expect the extra rate to carry for absolute sales contribution related to the extra week?

偉大的。偉大的。我的意思是我也有一個小模型。就在第四季度，您說額外一周的營業支出佔銷售額的 20%。對於與額外一周相關的絕對銷售貢獻，您預計額外費率會帶來什麼？

Yes. Just roughly, whatever you're modeling for Q4 is whatever 5 days is worth. I just -- that's the easiest way doing it. Then to supply 20% OpEx on that typical gross margins.

是的。粗略地說，你為第四季度建模的任何東西都是 5 天的價值。我只是 - 這是最簡單的方法。然後在該典型毛利率上提供 20% 的運營支出。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to John Chironna for your closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給 John Chironna 做你的閉幕詞。

Thank you, Rafael. Before we end the call, a quick reminder that our fiscal '22 fourth quarter earnings date is now set for October 20, 2022. We plan to attend several investor conferences and perhaps a few roadshows before then. So we look forward to seeing you in person. Thanks for joining us today.

謝謝你，拉斐爾。在我們結束電話會議之前，快速提醒一下，我們的 22 財年第四季度收益日期現在定為 2022 年 10 月 20 日。我們計劃在此之前參加幾次投資者會議，也許還有一些路演。因此，我們期待與您見面。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家出席今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。