MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早上好。

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the MSC Industrial Direct fourth-quarter fiscal 2007 earnings conference call.

在此，我想歡迎大家參加 MSC Industrial Direct 2007 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

所有線路都已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。

After the speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.

演講者發言後將進行問答環節。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the call over to Eric Boyriven of FD.

我現在想把電話轉給 FD 的 Eric Boyriven。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Sir, you may begin your conference.

先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早上好。

I would like to welcome you to the MSC Industrial Direct fiscal 2007 fourth-quarter results conference call.

歡迎您參加 MSC Industrial Direct 2007 財年第四季度業績電話會議。

You should have received a copy of this morning's earnings announcement.

你應該已經收到了今天上午的收益公告的副本。

If you have not received a copy, please call our offices at 212-850-5752, and a copy will be sent to you.

如果您沒有收到副本，請致電我們的辦公室 212-850-5752，我們將向您發送一份副本。

An online archive of this broadcast will be available within one hour of the conclusion of the call and will be available for one week at www.mscdirect.com.

此廣播的在線存檔將在通話結束後一小時內提供，並將在 www.mscdirect.com 上提供一周。

Certain information pertaining to non-GAAP financial measures that may arise during this broadcast can also be found on the same website in the investor relations section.

在本次廣播期間可能出現的與非公認會計原則財務措施有關的某些信息也可以在同一網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Let me take a minute to reference the Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

讓我花一點時間來參考 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》下的安全港聲明。

This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties including the future operating and financial performance of the Company.

本次電話會議可能包含某些受重大風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述，包括公司未來的運營和財務業績。

Though the Company believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, they can give no assurances that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.

儘管公司認為其前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但他們不能保證此類預期或其任何前瞻性陳述將被證明是正確的。

Important risk factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the Company's forward-looking statements are included in today's earnings release and in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

可能導致實際結果與公司前瞻性陳述中反映的結果大不相同的重要風險因素包含在今天的收益發布和公司提交給證券交易委員會的文件中。

In addition, the information contained in this conference call is accurate only on the date discussed.

此外，本次電話會議中包含的信息僅在討論的日期是準確的。

Investors should not assume that the statements made in this conference call remain operative at a later time.

投資者不應假設本次電話會議中的聲明在以後仍然有效。

The Company undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on this call.

公司不承擔更新本次電話會議討論的任何信息的義務。

With that said, I'd like to introduce MSC Industrial Direct's President and Chief Executive Officer, David Sandler.

話雖如此，我想介紹 MSC Industrial Direct 的總裁兼首席執行官 David Sandler。

David, please go ahead.

大衛，請繼續。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。

With me are Chuck Willey, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Shelley Boxer, Vice President of Finance.

與我同行的是執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Chuck Willey；和財務副總裁Shelley Boxer。

I'll be providing some details on the quarter, market conditions along with updates on J&L and our West Coast growth initiative.

我將提供有關本季度的一些細節、市場狀況以及 J&L 和我們西海岸增長計劃的最新情況。

Chuck will provide details on the financial results, including our thoughts on gross margin, operating expenses and how we will handle J&L in our website metrics.

Chuck 將提供財務結果的詳細信息，包括我們對毛利率、運營費用的看法以及我們將如何在我們的網站指標中處理 J&L。

After my closing remarks, we will open the lines for questions.

在我的結束語之後，我們將打開提問欄。

Fourth-quarter results were solid, given the mixed state of the economy.

鑑於經濟狀況喜憂參半，第四季度業績穩健。

We continue to be pleased with our progress on J&L and have successfully executed on our fourth-quarter plan to complete the integration and absorption of the J&L back office and distribution centers.

我們繼續對 J&L 的進展感到滿意，並已成功執行第四季度計劃，以完成 J&L 後台和配送中心的整合和吸收。

We're also making solid progress on our plan to train and acclimate the J&L sales force in selling MRO products and other MSC brands to our J&L customer base.

我們在培訓和適應 J&L 銷售人員向我們的 J&L 客戶群銷售 MRO 產品和其他 MSC 品牌的計劃方面也取得了堅實的進展。

We are beginning to see progress on this initiative.

我們開始看到這一舉措取得進展。

This is a process that will take time, and we expect that the results will continue to build throughout the year.

這是一個需要時間的過程，我們預計結果將在全年繼續建立。

We're pleased to have met or exceeded guidance on all key metrics in our business.

我們很高興在我們業務的所有關鍵指標上都達到或超過了指導。

We continue to execute our business strategy, take share and grow.

我們繼續執行我們的業務戰略，分享和成長。

We exceeded the upper end of our guidance for both sales and earnings, and operating margins were slightly better than forecast.

我們的銷售額和收益都超出了我們指引的上限，營業利潤率略好於預期。

Expense control as well as gross margin execution continue to be outstanding.

費用控制和毛利率執行仍然很出色。

Overall, I'm very pleased with MSC's performance in the fourth quarter.

總的來說，我對 MSC 在第四季度的表現非常滿意。

In general, the market is reasonably solid with pockets of strength and pockets of weakness.

總體而言，市場相當穩固，既有強勢也有弱勢。

Since our last call, we have generally heard an optimistic tone from our customers, although tempered by their concern over the liquidity crunch, oil prices and the possibility of another slowdown or even a recession.

自上次電話會議以來，我們普遍聽到客戶的樂觀基調，儘管他們對流動性緊縮、油價以及再次放緩甚至衰退的可能性的擔憂有所緩和。

Customer order flows have remained steady.

客戶訂單流量保持穩定。

The ISM remains in positive territory, although the two most recent readings have moderated versus the preceding four readings.

ISM 仍處於積極區域，儘管最近的兩個讀數與前四個讀數相比有所放緩。

While the ISM points to growth, there are other conflicting indicators at this point such as [we durables] orders and a weak housing market.

雖然 ISM 指向增長，但此時還有其他相互矛盾的指標，例如 [我們耐用品] 訂單和疲軟的房地產市場。

We have factored this market information into our guidance for Q1 along with our plans to continue to invest in future growth.

我們已將此市場信息納入我們對第一季度的指導以及我們繼續投資於未來增長的計劃。

Chuck will add some more color to this later on in his portion.

查克稍後將在他的部分中為此添加更多顏色。

We continue to execute on our plans to penetrate the Western region of the United States and are in the process of opening three new sales offices -- Seattle, Portland and Salt Lake City.

我們繼續執行滲透美國西部地區的計劃，並正在開設三個新的銷售辦事處——西雅圖、波特蘭和鹽湖城。

We believe that we're just beginning to take advantage of the huge sales opportunity that exists in the Western United States.

我們相信我們才剛剛開始利用美國西部存在的巨大銷售機會。

Of course, we're continuing to grow our sales force in the balance of the United States as well.

當然，我們也在繼續擴大我們在美國的銷售隊伍。

The MSC sales force grew to 814 at the end of Q4, and we expect that the sales force will grow to about 840 associates by the end of Q1.

MSC 銷售人員在第四季度末增長到 814 人，我們預計到第一季度末銷售人員將增長到約 840 人。

Last quarter, we reported on the successful migration of J&L to MSC's computer systems.

上個季度，我們報告了 J&L 成功遷移到 MSC 的計算機系統的情況。

During the summer months we completed the absorption of J&L support functions into MSC.

在夏季的幾個月裡，我們完成了將 J&L 支持功能併入 MSC。

The estimated cost savings are now being realized and are included in our guidance for Q1 results.

估計的成本節約現已實現，並包含在我們對第一季度業績的指導中。

We are in the process of optimizing the customer experience to bring the best of MSC and J&L to all of our customers.

我們正在優化客戶體驗，為我們所有的客戶帶來最好的 MSC 和 J&L。

At this point I am unable to share details, due to competitive reasons.

由於競爭原因，目前我無法分享細節。

But we're confident that the result will be a service model that's even better than the industry-leading model that we currently have in place and will help to drive growth well into the future.

但我們相信，結果將是一種比我們目前擁有的行業領先模式更好的服務模式，並將有助於推動未來的增長。

I saw some of the results of the combination of MSC and J&L during our recent customer visit in the Midwest.

在我們最近在中西部的客戶訪問中，我看到了 MSC 和 J&L 合併的一些成果。

This customer has been a J&L customer for many years.

這位客戶多年來一直是 J&L 的客戶。

They have relied upon J&L for the bulk of their metalworking supplies and have enjoyed ongoing savings from J&L's value-added solutions.

他們的大部分金屬加工供應都依賴於 J&L，並從 J&L 的增值解決方案中獲得了持續的節省。

The field sales associate serving this account has continued to bring value to them since our acquisition of J&L.

自從我們收購 J&L 以來，為該客戶服務的現場銷售助理繼續為他們帶來價值。

The customer's plant manager sees the combination of our two companies as a very powerful one.

客戶的工廠經理認為我們兩家公司的合併是一個非常強大的公司。

The addition of MSC's huge SKU base, CMI/VMI tools and access to many more quality private-label and branded products to the J&L package has positioned our Company to further penetrate this account.

MSC 龐大的 SKU 基礎、CMI/VMI 工具以及對 J&L 套餐的更多優質自有品牌和品牌產品的訪問使我們公司能夠進一步滲透該客戶。

The customer trusts us to solve their problems and reduce their costs.

客戶相信我們能夠解決他們的問題並降低他們的成本。

In the last year our business with them has grown about 60%, and our expectation is to see continued strong growth as we install DMI in their [Tool Crib] and begin to introduce the complete range of MRO products into their plant.

去年，我們與他們的業務增長了約 60%，隨著我們在他們的 [Tool Crib] 中安裝 DMI 並開始將全系列的 MRO 產品引入他們的工廠，我們期望看到持續的強勁增長。

Once again, my customer visits have shown me how well-positioned MSC is for the future.

再一次，我的客戶訪問向我展示了 MSC 對未來的有利定位。

I would like to provide some guidance for Q1.

我想為 Q1 提供一些指導。

At this point, we think that sales will be in the range of 435 to $441 million and diluted earnings per share will be in the range of $0.68 to $0.70.

在這一點上，我們認為銷售額將在 435 美元至 4.41 億美元之間，每股攤薄收益將在 0.68 美元至 0.70 美元之間。

Thanks and I'll now turn the mic over to Chuck.

謝謝，我現在把麥克風交給查克。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007 were excellent.

2007 財年第四季度的財務業績非常出色。

As a reminder, the fourth quarter of this year included an extra week as compared to last year.

提醒一下，與去年相比，今年第四季度增加了一周。

This happens every five years as we true up our fiscal year to the last weekend in August.

這種情況每五年發生一次，因為我們將財政年度調整到 8 月的最後一個週末。

Gross margin came in at 46.1%, within our guidance range.

毛利率為 46.1%，在我們的指導範圍內。

I think that it's important to review the components which impact our gross margin, as the environment this year will likely be a bit more challenging.

我認為審查影響我們毛利率的因素很重要，因為今年的環境可能會更具挑戰性。

The drivers of gross margin are the following.

毛利率的驅動因素如下。

Number one, customer mix.

第一，客戶組合。

As we grow our margin account program more quickly than other customer segments, we experience a diluted effect on gross margin.

隨著我們比其他客戶群更快地發展我們的保證金賬戶計劃，我們對毛利率的影響被稀釋了。

Number two, the degree of inflation has an impact on gross margin.

第二，通貨膨脹程度對毛利率有影響。

We think that this year's inflation effects will be mild, and it will see less impact from pricing that we have seen in the past few years.

我們認為今年的通脹影響將是溫和的，定價的影響將比過去幾年看到的要小。

Number three, our aggressive buy-better programs, which includes focus on private brand, better structured growth programs with key brands and our e-auction program for commodities have an accretive impact on gross margin.

第三，我們積極的“買得更好”計劃，包括專注於自有品牌、與主要品牌建立更好的結構化增長計劃以及我們的商品電子拍賣計劃，對毛利率產生了增值影響。

Number four, product mix.

第四，產品組合。

As you know, some of our product lines carry higher margin than others.

如您所知，我們的一些產品線的利潤率高於其他產品線。

We think we have a solid process for forecasting and managing the major components of gross margin and a solid track record for delivering results.

我們認為我們擁有可靠的流程來預測和管理毛利率的主要組成部分，並擁有可靠的業績記錄。

As we noted, we think that this year will be a bit more challenging, and accordingly we think that gross margin for all of fiscal year 2008 will be 46.2%, plus or minus 20 basis points.

正如我們所指出的，我們認為今年將更具挑戰性，因此我們認為 2008 財年全年的毛利率將為 46.2%，上下浮動 20 個基點。

We continue to experience ongoing success in our efforts to manage our operating expenses.

我們在努力管理運營費用方面繼續取得持續成功。

Our headcount remains under control.

我們的員工人數仍在控制之中。

We realized some benefits in the health cost area, and J&L integration expenses were somewhat less than expected in Q4.

我們在健康成本領域實現了一些好處，而強生整合費用在第四季度略低於預期。

We expect there would not be any J&L integration expenses in the future.

我們預計未來不會有任何 J&L 整合費用。

MSC's consolidated operating margin in Q4 was 17% of sales, including J&L integration costs of $1.4 million and amortization of intangibles related to J&L of $1.9 million.

MSC 在第四季度的綜合營業利潤率為銷售額的 17%，其中包括 140 萬美元的 J&L 整合成本和 190 萬美元與 J&L 相關的無形資產攤銷。

Earnings per diluted share exceeded the top of our guidance range by $0.02.

每股攤薄收益超出我們指導範圍的上限 0.02 美元。

Benefits from exceptional operating cost management account for much of this.

卓越的運營成本管理帶來的好處佔了很大一部分。

Our expectation was for Q4 operating margin expressed as a percentage of sales to decline slightly from Q3, reflecting the higher levels of investment spending that began at the end of Q2 of 2007.

我們的預期是，以銷售額百分比表示的第四季度營業利潤率將比第三季度略有下降，這反映了從 2007 年第二季度末開始的更高水平的投資支出。

We intend to continue to invest at these higher levels in areas such as our sales force throughout fiscal-year 2008.

我們打算在整個 2008 財年繼續在銷售團隊等領域進行更高層次的投資。

Even with this investment, our expectation is that operating margin in Q1 will increase from Q4 levels as we increase productivity, generate leverage in the business and realize the anticipated cost synergies and savings from J&L.

即使有了這項投資，我們的預期是，隨著我們提高生產力、產生業務槓桿並實現預期的成本協同效應和 J&L 的節省，第一季度的營業利潤率將比第四季度的水平增加。

Balance-sheet metrics remain solid.

資產負債表指標保持穩健。

Annualized inventory turns were 2.95, and Accounts Receivable DSOs were 43 days.

年化庫存周轉率為 2.95，應收賬款 DSO 為 43 天。

Consolidated free cash flow, which we define as cash provided from operations with capital expenditures, was $34.8 million in Q4 and $138.7 million for fiscal 2007.

合併自由現金流，我們將其定義為資本支出的運營提供的現金，在第四季度為 3480 萬美元，在 2007 財年為 1.387 億美元。

Free cash flow has continued at high levels, and in Q4 we paid down $25 million of borrowings under our term loan and purchased $11.1 million of our stock in the open market.

自由現金流繼續保持在高水平，在第四季度，我們通過定期貸款償還了 2500 萬美元的借款，並在公開市場上購買了 1110 萬美元的股票。

For all of fiscal year 2007 we purchased $75.2 million of our stock.

在 2007 財年全年，我們購買了 7520 萬美元的股票。

Capital expenditures were $5 million in Q4, in line with our expectations, and totaled $26.5 million for the year.

第四季度的資本支出為 500 萬美元，符合我們的預期，全年總計 2650 萬美元。

Total cap ex for fiscal 2008 is expected to be about the same.

預計 2008 財年除稅總額將大致相同。

Before turning the microphone back to David, I would like to make mention of our business metrics on mscdirect.com.

在將麥克風轉回給 David 之前，我想提一下我們在 mscdirect.com 上的業務指標。

As promised, we have included J&L in the metrics for Q4.

正如承諾的那樣，我們已將強生納入第四季度的指標。

We did substantial amounts of work following systems conversion in May to get comfortable with the data and to make certain judgments about what we should be including.

在 5 月份進行系統轉換後，我們進行了大量工作，以便對數據感到滿意，並對我們應該包含的內容做出某些判斷。

We decided to leave out the effect of the UK operation, as that business is not operated in the same manner as the US business.

我們決定忽略英國業務的影響，因為該業務的運營方式與美國業務不同。

Similarly, we have excluded the J&L call centers from the call center metrics, as those metrics are not relevant to the J&L call center experience.

同樣，我們從呼叫中心指標中排除了 J&L 呼叫中心，因為這些指標與 J&L 呼叫中心體驗無關。

We were also very thorough in illuminating the overlap in customers from the count of active customers.

我們還非常徹底地從活躍客戶的數量中闡明了客戶的重疊。

If one entity did only $1 in business with a customer of the other entity, we only counted that customer once.

如果一個實體與另一個實體的客戶只做了 1 美元的業務，我們只計算該客戶一次。

With a large increase in the number of active customers, it's clear that there's a huge opportunity in the J&L customer base.

隨著活躍客戶數量的大幅增加，很明顯 J&L 客戶群存在巨大的機會。

Thank you, and now I'll turn it back over to David.

謝謝，現在我會把它交給大衛。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

I'd like to thank all of our associates for all their efforts and the outstanding results which they produced in fiscal-year 2007.

我要感謝我們所有的員工在 2007 財年所做的一切努力和取得的傑出成果。

We set new records for sales, profits, profitability and cash flow.

我們創造了銷售、利潤、盈利能力和現金流的新記錄。

During the successful integration of our largest acquisition ever, the service experience to our customers never faltered and in fact reached new heights.

在我們有史以來最大的收購成功整合期間，我們為客戶提供的服務體驗從未動搖，事實上達到了新的高度。

We expanded our foot print in the West, invested substantially in our future and continued to demonstrate the strength of our model in terms of share gain and in leverage.

我們擴大了在西方的足跡，對我們的未來進行了大量投資，並繼續展示我們的模式在份額收益和槓桿率方面的實力。

On behalf of all of our stakeholders, I offer a heart-felt thank you and well done to all of our associates.

我代表我們所有的利益相關者，向我們所有的員工表示衷心的感謝，並表示他們做得很好。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Now I'll open up the line for questions.

現在我將打開問題線。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

David Manthey, Robert W.

大衛·曼西、羅伯特·W.

Baird.

貝爾德。

A couple questions on the tone of business.

關於業務基調的幾個問題。

I was wondering if you could talk about what you saw in the pace of business and the trajectory in September and October versus what you saw in August.

我想知道您能否談談您在 9 月和 10 月看到的業務節奏和軌跡與您在 8 月看到的情況。

It looks like things picked up, and I'm wondering if that's just comps or if there was some underlying strength there.

看起來事情有所好轉，我想知道這是否只是補償還是那裡有一些潛在的力量。

Very tough to certainly characterize the four weeks of August.

很難確定八月的四個星期。

It's one of the two very heavy vacation months.

這是兩個非常沉重的假期之一。

So I can't say that the tone, frankly, was meaningfully different from our customers during that period versus what we are really seeing right now.

因此，坦率地說，我不能說在那個時期與我們的客戶的語氣與我們現在真正看到的有明顯的不同。

So in general, customers, based on the segment that they are in generally have an optimistic tone.

因此，總的來說，基於他們所在的細分市場的客戶通常具有樂觀的基調。

The environment is reasonably solid.

環境還算穩固。

Again, that's depending on which customer you go into really depends on how they are feeling.

同樣，這取決於您進入的客戶實際上取決於他們的感受。

But the other thing going on here, obviously, is what is happening more in the macro, and that's also in customers' minds.

但顯然，這裡發生的另一件事是宏觀上正在發生的事情，這也在客戶的腦海中。

Could you remind us, as far as pricing in the Big Book, I think you had previously said you thought you would achieve 1%, and I don't remember if that was for fiscal 2007 or what you expected for fiscal 2008.

您能否提醒我們，就大賬本中的定價而言，我想您之前曾說過您認為您會實現 1%，我不記得那是 2007 財年還是您對 2008 財年的預期。

Could you talk about pricing in both years?

你能談談這兩年的定價嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I'll talk about it, I guess, in the quarter, and I'll also talk about the Big Book.

我想，我會在本季度談論它，我也會談論大書。

The Big Book was basically if you add items one by one by one, basically we took a little over a 1% increase, 1, 1.25% or so.

大本子基本上就是一個個一個個的加，基本上我們拿了1%多一點的增幅，1個，1.25%左右。

Then in the quarter, the impact of pricing was roughly, of the 8% growth on an ADS basis, of that growth, roughly 2 to 3% came from the cumulative effect of pricing throughout the year.

然後在本季度，定價的影響大致是，在 ADS 基礎上 8% 的增長中，大約 2% 到 3% 來自定價的全年累積效應。

And the 1% to 1.25% is for fiscal 2008?

1% 到 1.25% 是 2008 財年的嗎？

It's for fiscal 2008, specifically what you saw for an increase in September's Big Book.

這是針對 2008 財年的，特別是您在 9 月份的大賬簿中看到的增長。

And a final question on margins at J&L, gross margins.

最後一個關於 J&L 利潤率的問題，毛利率。

Could you remind me, in terms of how those compare relative to core MSC margin, is there any material difference?

您能否提醒我，就這些相對於核心 MSC 保證金的比較而言，是否有任何實質性差異？

Now that the business is integrated and the purchasing and so forth is being done, obviously, here that accommodate all customers that are currently buying from MSC, J&L or otherwise.

現在業務已經整合，採購等工作已經完成，顯然，這裡可以容納目前從 MSC、J&L 或其他公司購買的所有客戶。

We had realized and had baked into our forecast that there would be substantial margin improvement both on the growth side and the operating side.

我們已經意識到並且已經將我們的預測納入了我們的預測，即增長方面和運營方面的利潤率都會大幅提高。

We feel confident right now at post integration, we have achieved all the savings we said we were going to achieve.

我們現在對後期整合充滿信心，我們已經實現了我們說過要實現的所有節省。

Having said that, we do see that the margins between J&L and MSC -- historically, J&L has been lower.

話雖如此，我們確實看到 J&L 和 MSC 之間的利潤率——從歷史上看，J&L 一直較低。

We have achieved, as Chuck said, many of the improvements that we expected.

正如查克所說，我們已經實現了許多我們預期的改進。

We don't characterize beyond that.

除此之外，我們不會進行表徵。

But your point about them being different -- they are different.

但是你關於它們不同的觀點——它們是不同的。

Daniel Whang, Lehman Brothers.

丹尼爾·王，雷曼兄弟。

Good morning.

早上好。

First question was regarding some of the geographic trends that you saw in the quarter.

第一個問題是關於您在本季度看到的一些地理趨勢。

I think there is some strengthening, particularly in the Northeast, and maybe a little bit of softening in the Southeast.

我認為有一些加強，特別是在東北部，而在東南部可能會有所減弱。

Could you perhaps go through some of the drivers behind those regional trends?

您能否介紹一下這些區域趨勢背後的一些驅動因素？

Throughout all of the regions, certainly one of the drivers is our concentration in manufacturing.

在所有地區，當然驅動因素之一是我們對製造業的專注。

You could see on our website stats that manufacturing was at a significantly lower growth rate than our non-manufacturing business.

您可以在我們的網站統計數據中看到，製造業的增長率明顯低於我們的非製造業業務。

But then, within manufacturing, the two major components there are what we'll call heavy versus light manufacturing.

但是，在製造業中，兩個主要組成部分是我們所說的重型與輕型製造業。

We don't break it out, but it's certainly something that we watch very closely internally.

我們不會打破它，但它肯定是我們內部非常密切關注的事情。

Heavy manufacturing is actually durable goods manufacturing, and generally we've seen that durable goods manufacturing has been far more heavily hit in terms of softness than the broader manufacturing economy.

重型製造業實際上是耐用品製造業，一般來說，我們已經看到耐用品製造業在疲軟方面受到的打擊比更廣泛的製造業經濟要嚴重得多。

Where you're seeing concentrated pockets of durables throughout our region, you'll generally see that our region has been more or less affected in their growth rates.

如果您在我們地區看到集中的耐用品口袋，您通常會看到我們地區的增長率或多或少受到影響。

Having said that, for example, in the Northeast you will notice that the growth rate there has actually picked up.

話雖如此，例如，在東北地區，您會注意到那裡的增長率實際上已經回升。

Given that the Northeast is our most heavily concentrated in manufacturing and specifically in durables, you may come back to me and say, David, I don't understand what you just said.

鑑於東北是我們最集中的製造業，特別是耐用品，你可能會回過頭來對我說，大衛，我不明白你剛才說的話。

Based on your explanation, it should be down.

根據您的解釋，它應該是關閉的。

Well, the other thing that we talked about is that, while we don't publicly discuss what customer segments are up and down, the Northeast specifically has a couple of segments within durable goods manufacturing that are, frankly, very hot right now and we are taking advantage of the growth.

好吧，我們談到的另一件事是，雖然我們沒有公開討論哪些客戶細分市場處於上升和下降狀態，但東北地區特別有幾個耐用品製造業細分市場，坦率地說，現在非常熱門，我們正在利用增長。

Switching over to the J&L, you're making great progress there.

切換到 J&L，你在那裡取得了很大的進步。

Some of the backroom DC-related integration efforts are complete, focusing on cross selling.

一些與後台 DC 相關的整合工作已經完成，重點是交叉銷售。

In terms of potential use of free cash that's generated and how another acquisition might play in, could you just comment around that?

關於產生的自由現金的潛在用途以及另一次收購可能如何發揮作用，您能否就此發表評論？

If the right opportunity came along at the right price, would you consider another acquisition of something as sizable as J&L, or would it be more kind of a bolt-on?

如果合適的機會以合適的價格出現，您會考慮再次收購像 J&L 這樣規模龐大的公司，還是更像是一種補強？

In our strategic process, first of all, I guess the short answer is we absolutely would consider an acquisition, either smaller -- an acquisition the size of J&L or frankly perhaps even one larger.

在我們的戰略過程中，首先，我想簡短的回答是我們絕對會考慮收購，或者更小——收購 J&L 的規模，或者坦率地說甚至可能更大。

The way that we'd make that decision is that, as we look at our strategic plan of the next five years, the acquisition candidate would have to meet a very high bar, as did J&L, in terms of putting the business both in a better strategic position and in driving our results over the next five years, better than if we had not made the acquisition.

我們做出這個決定的方式是，當我們審視我們未來五年的戰略計劃時，收購候選人必須達到一個非常高的標準，就像 J&L 一樣，在將業務置於更好的戰略地位並在未來五年推動我們的業績，比我們沒有進行收購要好。

Scott Graham, Bear Stearns.

斯科特·格雷厄姆，貝爾斯登。

Good morning.

早上好。

We have several questions for you.

我們有幾個問題要問您。

The inventory number -- I know that that was run up a little bit because of the integration of J&L, because of the warehouse stuff and the need to maintain service rates.

庫存數量——我知道這是因為 J&L 的整合，倉庫的東西和維持服務費率的需要而增加了一點。

When can we see that number start to come down?

我們什麼時候可以看到這個數字開始下降？

I think you'll see for the short term that we have been very cautious with protecting fill rates for customers and have actually used some of that inventory and increased it, actually, to help protect fill rates and make sure that we absolutely ensure the service experience is the absolute best for the customer.

我認為您會在短期內看到，我們在保護客戶的填充率方面一直非常謹慎，並且實際上已經使用了一些庫存並增加了它，實際上是為了幫助保護填充率並確保我們絕對確保服務體驗對客戶來說絕對是最好的。

I think it will be towards the latter part of the year when you actually see us start to significantly -- we make progress on that inventory number.

我認為這將是到今年下半年，當你真正看到我們開始顯著 - 我們在庫存數量上取得進展。

Right now, as you can see from the cash flow and the balance sheet, there has been an inventory build, and we certainly think over time that number will be coming down.

現在，正如你從現金流和資產負債表中看到的那樣，庫存已經增加，我們當然認為隨著時間的推移這個數字會下降。

But I would not say it's imminent in the next month or two.

但我不會說它在接下來的一兩個月內就迫在眉睫。

But it shouldn't go up higher?

但它不應該更高嗎？

Again, we're looking at fill rates and balancing those decisions.

同樣，我們正在研究填充率並平衡這些決定。

I don't want to sit here in an absolute vacuum and say that it's not going to be up any higher.

我不想坐在絕對真空中說它不會再漲了。

But for sure, over time, it the turn should improve and we should be making progress in taking that number down.

但可以肯定的是，隨著時間的推移，轉機應該會有所改善，我們應該在降低這個數字方面取得進展。

On the national accounts, could you tell us what that contributed?

關於國民賬戶，你能告訴我們這是什麼貢獻嗎？

For competitive reasons, that's not a segment or statistic that we break out.

出於競爭原因，這不是我們打破的細分或統計數據。

Certainly, we measure it internally, but it isn't one that we talk about.

當然，我們在內部對其進行測量，但這不是我們談論的。

I think you may be talking percent of growth.

我想你可能在談論增長百分比。

(multiple speakers) I can give you those --

（多位發言者）我可以給你那些——

Yes.

是的。

It's a large number -- large accounts.

這是一個很大的數字——大帳戶。

Large accounts accounted for 43% in the growth.

大客戶佔增長的43%。

David talked about pricing before; that was roughly 29% in the growth, and pure volume was about 28% of the growth when you look at those numbers on an average daily sales basis.

大衛之前談過定價；這大約是 29% 的增長，當您查看這些數字的平均每日銷售額時，純銷量約為增長的 28%。

Share repurchases in the quarter, I saw, were about $11 million.

我看到，本季度的股票回購約為 1100 萬美元。

What's left?

還剩下什麼？

And is there a new authorization, potentially, being sought by you guys with the Board?

你們是否有可能向董事會尋求新的授權？

There are still 2.5 million shares left on the authorization, so there's plenty of run room there.

授權還剩下250萬股，所以那裡有足夠的運行空間。

If we were to go back to the Board, I don't think we would meet with any resistance.

如果我們回到董事會，我認為我們不會遇到任何阻力。

Did you ask anything else?

你問別的了嗎？

I do have one more.

我還有一個。

On the J&L savings, how will that roll through gross margin versus operating expenses, do you anticipate?

關於 J&L 的節省，您預計毛利率與運營費用之間的關係如何？

That's split about 50-50.

大約是50-50。

I'll give you some numbers for the recent quarter in the full year.

我會給你一些全年最近一個季度的數字。

In Q4 alone, there was about $5 million of synergies that we expected to see out of J&L.

僅在第四季度，我們預計 J&L 就會產生約 500 萬美元的協同效應。

That was split pretty much 50-50 between gross margin and operating expense.

毛利率和運營費用之間的比例幾乎為 50-50。

For all of 2007 including the $5 million for Q4, there was roughly $10 million worth of synergies in there.

2007 年全年，包括第四季度的 500 萬美元，其中產生了大約 1000 萬美元的協同效應。

Again, that was split roughly 50-50.

再一次，這被分成大約 50-50。

As you know, we have commented publicly that we expected to achieve 20, and you should certainly see the full $20 million in fiscal year 2008.

如您所知，我們公開評論說我們預計將達到 20 美元，您當然應該在 2008 財年看到全部 2000 萬美元。

We weighted a little bit more, about 60% OpEx, 40% margin, the difference being, rolling forward, the integration savings and back office savings that we have experience in Q4 obviously will be annualized, and we will have the full year benefit of all 12 months of those savings.

我們增加了一點權重，大約 60% 的運營支出，40% 的利潤率，不同之處在於，向前滾動，我們在第四季度經歷的集成節省和後台節省顯然將被年化，我們將獲得全年收益所有 12 個月的儲蓄。

And I think that's why the OpEx portion ramps up a little bit higher.

我認為這就是為什麼 OpEx 部分會上升一點的原因。

Jeffrey Germanotta, William Blair.

杰弗裡·傑爾諾塔，威廉·布萊爾。

I'd like to explore some of the levers to the income statement for a bit.

我想探討一下損益表的一些槓桿。

If we look back over the last several years, a lot of the earnings growth has been gross margin derived.

如果我們回顧過去幾年，很多盈利增長都是來自毛利率。

It sounds like, or maybe I misunderstand, that it will be less gross margin derived going forward and more dependent on sales volume and further harvesting SG&A synergies out of the J&L acquisition.

聽起來，或者我可能誤解了，未來毛利率將減少，而更多地依賴於銷量和從 J&L 收購中進一步收穫 SG&A 協同效應。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

And if so, can we talk about some of those levers a little bit?

如果是這樣，我們可以談談其中一些槓桿嗎？

That's absolutely correct.

這是完全正確的。

As you heard, we gave guidance that we thought the margin, for all practical purposes, would be plus or minus were it is about right now, given the less fertile pricing environment that we anticipate next year, which, as you know, has generally been good in terms of expansion of gross margin.

正如你所聽到的，我們給出的指導是，考慮到我們預計明年的定價環境不那麼肥沃，我們認為，就所有實際目的而言，現在的利潤率會是正數或負數，正如你所知，通常情況下在毛利率的擴大方面表現良好。

That being said, the operating margins are improving year over year.

話雖如此，營業利潤率正在逐年提高。

We would expect them to continue to improve with some of the productivity plans we have in place, the full-year realization of the J&L savings I just mentioned.

我們希望他們能夠繼續改進我們制定的一些生產力計劃，即我剛才提到的 J&L 全年節省的實現。

I think a key element to consider, though, as you can see from the headcount increase in terms of investing for sales, is that there's a higher level of OpEx associated with those investments.

不過，我認為要考慮的一個關鍵因素是，從銷售投資方面的員工人數增加中可以看出，與這些投資相關的運營支出水平更高。

Our fourth-quarter hiring was, from an absolute number of folks broad with us was our highest quarter, and obviously that OpEx is reading through the P&L in Q1 and beyond.

我們第四季度的招聘人數是我們最高的季度，顯然運營支出正在閱讀第一季度及以後的損益表。

WE will continue to invest at those higher levels.

我們將繼續在這些更高的水平上進行投資。

So operating margins would continue to improve, but they would be at a much smaller pace then perhaps you seen in the past, partially because we're aggressively investing for sales growth for the future.

因此，營業利潤率將繼續提高，但速度可能會比你過去看到的要小得多，部分原因是我們正在積極投資於未來的銷售增長。

Can you talk a little bit about productivity of your core sales base and then the productivity you expect out of the incremental hires?

您能否談談您的核心銷售基礎的生產力以及您期望從增量招聘中獲得的生產力？

We've talked a lot about the information that we make public, and we know that it's very tough for you to get underneath the classes, which is something that we measure, to really understand productivity.

我們已經談論了很多關於我們公開的信息，我們知道你很難深入課堂，這是我們衡量的，真正了解生產力。

Certainly, we're seeing continued productivity improvements of our collective team.

當然，我們看到我們集體團隊的生產力不斷提高。

I will tell you that in this environment we don't get as much productivity as we would like, although the improvements certainly continue.

我會告訴你，在這種環境下，我們沒有得到我們想要的那麼多生產力，儘管改進肯定會繼續。

As we've always talked about from our new members of the team, new associates, it does take time to ramp up.

正如我們一直從團隊的新成員、新同事那裡談論的那樣，提升確實需要時間。

And you see the effects on our P&L of heavy investment spending.

您會看到大量投資支出對我們損益表的影響。

They are dilutive.

它們是稀釋性的。

They are dilutive in the short-term, but as time goes on they become accretive and critically important to driving growth and also critically important to driving profitability in the business.

它們在短期內具有稀釋作用，但隨著時間的推移，它們變得具有增值作用，對推動增長至關重要，對推動業務盈利能力也至關重要。

But near-term, certainly, they have a dilutive effect.

但在短期內，它們肯定會產生稀釋效應。

Are you publicly talking about any targets for your incremental operating profit margin, as you have from time to time in the past?

您是否像過去一樣公開談論增加營業利潤率的任何目標？

We are not.

我們不是。

What we publicly talk about is the fact that we have achieved -- we have used our read-through tools to achieve the levels of profitability that we are right now, which is in the high teens.

我們公開談論的是我們已經取得的事實——我們已經使用我們的通讀工具來實現我們現在的盈利水平，這是在十幾歲的時候。

From here, our plan is to incrementally continue to expand our operating margin, frankly, albeit at a much more moderate pace than what you have seen us do over the last few years.

從這裡開始，我們的計劃是逐步繼續擴大我們的營業利潤率，坦率地說，儘管速度比你在過去幾年看到的要溫和得多。

I think it is fair to say this, though.

不過，我認為這樣說是公平的。

From the guidance that we have just given, at least for the first quarter, we have given sales guidance, we have given you gross margin guidance.

從我們剛剛給出的指導來看，至少在第一季度，我們已經給出了銷售指導，我們已經給了你毛利率指導。

It's not real hard to figure out that the operating margins are definitely expanding in Q1, even with this higher level of investment spending.

不難看出，第一季度的營業利潤率肯定在擴大，即使投資支出水平更高。

Certainly, it's a much higher level of investment spending in the P&L for Q1 versus Q4, and despite that the operating margins continue to expand without any incremental help, if you will, from the gross margin line.

當然，與第四季度相比，第一季度損益表中的投資支出水平要高得多，儘管如果你願意的話，營業利潤率在沒有任何增量幫助的情況下繼續擴大。

So yes, there's still plenty of leverage left in the business, and margins continue to expand.

所以，是的，業務中仍然有很多槓桿作用，並且利潤率繼續擴大。

Last point, to double back on gross margin.

最後一點，毛利率翻倍。

Certainly, what we have characterized and tried to help provide some guidance on is what we see for this fiscal year.

當然，我們已經描述並試圖幫助提供一些指導的是我們在本財年看到的。

Obviously, that's as far out as we would be comfortable going with our gross margin.

顯然，這是我們對毛利率感到滿意的程度。

But remember that we're investing in many programs that will have a long-term effect on improving our margins, and that's certainly part of our long-term focus.

但請記住，我們正在投資許多將對提高利潤率產生長期影響的項目，這當然是我們長期關注的一部分。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

Brent Rakers, Morgan Keegan.

布倫特雷克斯，摩根基岡。

Just a point, first, of clarification on an earlier comment you guys made.

首先，澄清一下你們之前的評論。

In talking about the synergies at J&L, I believe you referred to a $10 million number in Q4.

在談到強生的協同效應時，我相信您提到了第四季度 1000 萬美元的數字。

Does that assume that the run rate was $2.5 million at quarter in Q4 and ramps immediately to $4.5 million starting in the next quarter?

這是否假設第四季度的運行率為 250 萬美元，並從下一季度開始立即升至 450 萬美元？

Or how should we look at that?

或者我們應該怎麼看？

Let me clarify if I was unclear.

如果我不清楚，讓我澄清一下。

For all of fiscal-year 2007, there were $10 million worth of J&L savings baked in the number, $5 million of which occurred in the fourth quarter.

在整個 2007 財年，J&L 節省了價值 1000 萬美元的資金，其中 500 萬美元發生在第四季度。

So there had been some build throughout the year.

所以全年都有一些建設。

For example, the executive costs that we've shared previously -- they were out for the entire year in fiscal-year 2007, and there's no ramp on that.

例如，我們之前分享的執行成本——它們在 2007 財年的整個年度都沒有，而且沒有增加。

In 2008 that was baked in the entire year for 2007 as well as being the same number for 2008.

2008 年是 2007 年全年烘焙的數據，與 2008 年的數字相同。

The full year 2008 is the realization of the entire $20 million worth of savings that we committed to, that we shared with everybody in the past, when we did the acquisition.

2008 年全年實現了我們承諾的全部 2000 萬美元的節省，我們在過去進行收購時與大家分享了這些節省。

So what you have, really, going forward into 2008 and -- it pretty much is linear in terms of $5 million a quarter to make the $20 million, is basically the savings achieved in the fourth quarter, post integration, which is a big driver behind many of the incremental savings, is now complete; you will get the full-year impact of that quarter by quarter, pretty much straight line for fiscal-year 2008 versus the way we experienced it in fiscal-year 2007, which was a small build because of the executive cost and then a big chunk dropping in, in Q4, given that the integration was complete.

所以，你所擁有的，真的，進入 2008 年，並且 - 它幾乎是線性的，以每季度 500 萬美元來賺取 2000 萬美元，基本上是在第四季度實現的節省，後期整合，這是一個很大的驅動力後面的很多增量儲蓄，現在已經完成；您將逐季了解該季度的全年影響，與我們在 2007 財年經歷的方式相比，2008 財年幾乎是直線，由於執行成本，這是一個小構建，然後是很大一部分考慮到集成已經完成，在第四季度加入。

And don't forget, we won't have those integration costs that we had in order to do the work, but we will continue to reflect the amortization of the intangibles into the P&L.

而且不要忘記，我們不會有為了完成這項工作而需要的那些整合成本，但我們將繼續將無形資產的攤銷反映到損益表中。

So basically, you extrapolate the Q4 rate into next year; you essentially realize those savings in Q4.

所以基本上，你將第四季度的利率外推到明年；您基本上在第四季度實現了這些節省。

But now, going forward, you lose the integration expense?

但是現在，展望未來，您會失去集成費用嗎？

Correct, which was roughly $6 million or so, $0.06 a share, throughout the entire fiscal- year 2007.

正確，在整個 2007 財年大約是 600 萬美元左右，每股 0.06 美元。

I wanted to just follow-up briefly on the gross margin adjustments or flat kind of numbers year over year for 2008.

我只想簡單地跟進 2008 年的毛利率調整或同比數字。

Should we also incorporate an impact on operating costs from not extrapolating gross margin maybe 30, 40, 50 basis points higher?

我們是否還應該考慮不推斷毛利率可能高出 30、40、50 個基點對運營成本的影響？

Is there an impact on compensation expense, for example, of having more flattish gross margin?

例如，毛利率趨於平緩是否會對補償費用產生影響？

No.

不。

The plan and the way we compensate folks contemplated a gross margin in that range of 46.2.

我們補償人們的計劃和方式考慮了 46.2 範圍內的毛利率。

Just to be clear, there's plenty of good things going on in gross margin.

需要明確的是，毛利率有很多好事。

Had we not been doing anything or would we not do anything just for, as I mentioned before, customer mix in the larger accounts growing quicker than the core, that would serve to drive margins down.

如果我們沒有做任何事情，或者我們不會做任何事情，正如我之前提到的那樣，大客戶中的客戶組合增長速度快於核心客戶，這將導致利潤率下降。

We have buy-better programs and other initiatives to mitigate that.

我們有購買更好的計劃和其他舉措來緩解這種情況。

What we don't feel we have in 2008 anywhere near the strength we had in prior years, was this pricing environment that allows us to improve and expand gross margins based on what we saw in our ability to take price increases and pass them along.

我們認為我們在 2008 年的實力遠不及前幾年的實力，這種定價環境使我們能夠根據我們看到的價格上漲和傳遞的能力來提高和擴大毛利率。

That's the major driver, one of the more significant drivers in the maintenance of the margin.

這是主要驅動因素，也是維持利潤率的更重要驅動因素之一。

But that aside, had nothing been going on, on cost down, margins by their own mix would have generally -- be dropping.

但除此之外，如果沒有任何事情發生，在成本下降的情況下，他們自己的組合的利潤率通常會下降。

That has not been the case.

但事實並非如此。

Last question.

最後一個問題。

Just maybe a clean-up question.

也許只是一個清理問題。

Looking through the cash-flow statement, is there anything going on with bad debt expense in the quarter?

查看現金流量表，本季度的壞賬費用是否有任何變化？

No.

不。

Higher volumes -- if you look at our sales growth in Q4, clearly, it was a little bit less than it was early on in the year.

更高的銷量——如果你看一下我們在第四季度的銷售增長，很明顯，它比年初時要少一些。

We basically have not had any kind of real bad experiences.

我們基本上沒有任何真正糟糕的經歷。

We obviously, when you integrate a system, the customers that are left over from the integration from J&L -- there's a cleanup that has to take place there, but that's a small piece and one-time and behind us now.

我們顯然，當您集成一個系統時，J&L 的集成留下的客戶 - 必須在那裡進行清理，但這只是一小部分，一次性的，現在已經落後了。

But you do agree it was up on a year-over-year basis fairly significantly?

但是您確實同意它的同比增長相當顯著？

So that's a one-time clean-up related to the systems, internally?

所以這是與系統相關的一次性清理，內部？

I think some of it is systems related.

我認為其中一些與系統相關。

I think some of it is volume related.

我認為其中一些與數量有關。

Our sales were a good bit higher.

我們的銷售額要高一些。

I think there's still a piece of receivables in there we provided for, that were made into the last several hundred thousand dollars of open receivables from the old J&L system is going to be difficult to go back and collect.

我認為我們還提供了一筆應收賬款，這些應收賬款已經從舊 J&L 系統中變成了最後幾十萬美元的未結應收賬款，這將很難回去收回。

But I would not read into that that we've got an ongoing change in credit quality or receivables management going forward.

但我不會讀到我們在未來的信用質量或應收賬款管理方面正在發生變化。

Adam Uhlman, Cleveland Research Company.

Adam Uhlman，克利夫蘭研究公司。

A question for you on the guidance first of all, on the sales growth guidance of 8 to 10% for the quarter -- for the first two months of the quarter, you're already running at the high-end of that range at 10%.

首先是關於指導的問題，關於本季度 8% 到 10% 的銷售增長指導——在本季度的前兩個月，你已經在該範圍的高端運行 10 %。

How should we be thinking about -- are you nervous about the sales progression going into November?

我們應該如何考慮——您是否對進入 11 月的銷售進展感到緊張？

I guess the comps are a little bit more difficult.

我想comps有點困難。

But I guess, first of all, you're already running at the top end of the range.

但我想，首先，你已經跑在了範圍的頂端。

Why the cautious comments there?

為什麼那裡有謹慎的評論？

The reason for is that the one data point that none of us have yet other than, certainly, in the forecast to complete our guidance for the quarter specifically is November.

原因是，我們沒有人知道的唯一一個數據點，當然是在預測中完成我們對本季度的指導，具體是 11 月。

Two things going on in November that are worth noting.

11 月發生的兩件事值得注意。

First of all, we had a comp last year -- we had a pretty significant one-time government order that we're factoring in that won't reoccur this November.

首先，我們去年有一個補償——我們有一個非常重要的一次性政府命令，我們正在考慮它不會在今年 11 月再次發生。

The other than going on is that, in November, the way that the Thanksgiving Day holiday falls, typically what we find is that the following week after Thanksgiving, the beginning of the week is generally a bit more sluggish as customers get back with a full belly of turkey.

其他情況是，在 11 月，感恩節假期的下降方式，通常我們發現感恩節後的下一周，隨著客戶滿載而歸，一周的開始通常會更加緩慢火雞的肚子。

What is happening is that the way that it falls this year is that, that second week following Thanksgiving actually falls in this quarter, whereas last year that week fell in December; so a mismatch of quarters.

正在發生的事情是，今年下降的方式是，感恩節後的第二週實際上是在這個季度，而去年那一周是在 12 月；所以季度不匹配。

Switching back to the gross margin guidance again, not to belabor this point.

再次切換回毛利率指導，而不是強調這一點。

But, Chuck, you had outlined four different drivers to gross margin -- customer inflation, better-buy programs and product mix.

但是，查克，你已經概述了毛利率的四個不同驅動因素——客戶通脹、更好的購買計劃和產品組合。

Keeping the gross margin flat this year, should we assume that those are -- the customer mix is the biggest headwind, and inflation is the second-biggest headwind to the performance in 2008?

保持今年毛利率持平，我們是否應該假設客戶組合是最大的不利因素，而通貨膨脹是 2008 年業績的第二大不利因素？

For 2008, now, what we've said is that the pricing environment is very different for 2008.

現在，對於 2008 年，我們所說的是 2008 年的定價環境非常不同。

I think if you want to isolate -- all those factors are moving pieces of the margin calculation.

我認為如果你想隔離 - 所有這些因素都是保證金計算的移動部分。

If you want to isolate one that's significantly different than what we've seen in the last, really, 12 quarters, almost, it's that we don't right now perceive the pricing opportunity that we saw in the past.

如果你想找出一個與我們在過去 12 個季度中看到的有顯著差異的產品，那是因為我們現在沒有意識到我們過去看到的定價機會。

Mild inflation has been absolutely good for us in terms of helping us to improve the gross margin.

就幫助我們提高毛利率而言，溫和的通貨膨脹對我們絕對有利。

You've seen the steady climb over the last 12 quarters.

您已經看到過去 12 個季度的穩步攀升。

We don't see that pricing environment being there right now, and that's the reason for the guidance of the margin or one of the major reasons, if not the biggest, for why gross margin may stay in the area it is right now.

我們沒有看到現在的定價環境，這就是指導利潤率的原因，或者是毛利率可能保持在目前水平的主要原因之一，即使不是最大的原因。

Then the last clean-up question here.

然後是最後一個清理問題。

We were talking about inventory levels earlier.

我們之前談到了庫存水平。

Could you talk about what your working capital targets are for the year?

您能否談談您今年的營運資金目標是多少？

Where would you like to get inventories to by the end of the year?

您希望在年底前將庫存運到哪裡？

We didn't specifically talk about inventories and targets.

我們沒有具體談論庫存和目標。

But, much like this year, I would tell you that our expectation is to turn a significant piece of our net income into cash flow from operations and provide -- last year it was in the neighborhood of 95% of the income, net income that we generated flowed through in cash.

但是，就像今年一樣，我會告訴你，我們的期望是將我們的大部分淨收入轉化為運營現金流，並提供 - 去年它在收入的 95% 附近，淨收入我們產生的現金流過。

I think that's the metric that we're looking -- is the conversion of cash without specifically giving you exact data points for where we'll be on inventory and receivables and so forth.

我認為這是我們正在尋找的指標 - 是現金的轉換，而沒有專門為您提供關於我們將在哪裡進行庫存和應收賬款等的確切數據點。

But a similar conversion ratio to --

但類似的轉化率 -

Similar to last year, yes.

與去年類似，是的。

Robert McCarthy, Banc of America.

美國銀行羅伯特·麥卡錫。

Can I just drill down a second?

我可以深入研究一下嗎？

I think you talked about in the Northeast some clients really seeing some pretty nice growth there.

我認為您在東北部談到了一些客戶確實在那裡看到了相當不錯的增長。

Were those clients levered to a pretty active export market in terms of demand for the growth of their goods abroad?

就海外商品增長的需求而言，這些客戶是否利用了相當活躍的出口市場？

Do you have any kind of insight into that?

你對此有什麼見解嗎？

To be honest, I wouldn't want to characterize, probably for two reasons.

老實說，我不想描述，可能有兩個原因。

One is that I don't want to tip my hand more than I have on what those segments might be.

一是我不想在這些細分市場上更多地提示我的手。

The other is that there's only so much information that we really have on our customer base and any specific customer.

另一個是我們真正擁有的關於我們的客戶群和任何特定客戶的信息只有這麼多。

Certainly, a lot of the larger multinationals are -- some are having a lot of success based on the weak dollar and what's happening with the exporting environment.

當然，許多大型跨國公司是——一些基於疲軟的美元和出口環境正在發生的事情取得了很大的成功。

I probably wouldn't want to go further than that.

我可能不想走得更遠。

Understood.

明白了。

Then, just obviously we could be at the tipping point here in the US economy.

然後，很明顯，我們可能處於美國經濟的轉折點。

I think you've adequately highlighted some of the risks surrounding that.

我認為你已經充分強調了圍繞這一點的一些風險。

Could you perhaps articulate what your rainy day strategy would be in that case, when we would start to hear about it and how it would maybe alter some of your spending patterns, some of your emphasis on investment and your pecking order in terms of capital allocation?

您能否闡明在這種情況下您的未雨綢繆策略是什麼，我們什麼時候開始聽說它，以及它將如何改變您的某些支出模式、您對投資的某些強調以及您在資本配置方面的優先順序?

I'm not going to give you an exact pecking order.

我不會給你一個確切的排序。

I will tell you that we've had a process in place, call it our rainy day strategy, for some time.

我會告訴你，我們已經制定了一個流程，稱之為我們的未雨綢繆策略，已經有一段時間了。

Part of it depends on whether it's a rainy day or whether the monsoons are here for a protracted period of time, as to how we would kind of turn the dials on our business.

部分取決於是下雨天還是季風在這裡持續很長時間，至於我們將如何調整我們的業務。

Certainly, we've got the ability to turn down a bit, based on the timing of some of our hiring, some of our investment hiring, some of our sales programs like direct-mail, the degree of which we are investing in our business, the degree of -- the level of investment hiring and all.

當然，我們有能力拒絕一點，這取決於我們招聘的一些時間、我們的一些投資招聘、我們的一些銷售計劃（如直郵）、我們對業務的投資程度，程度——招商引資的程度等等。

We try and gauge all of that, and we've got those dials to turn, which we do turn in the spirit of, frankly, balancing what we see, achieving short-term profitability coupled with the appropriate balance of long-term growth.

我們嘗試衡量所有這些，並且我們已經轉動了這些刻度盤，坦率地說，我們確實本著平衡我們所看到的，實現短期盈利能力以及長期增長的適當平衡的精神。

So those dials get turned, depending on what we're seeing coming around the corner.

所以這些刻度盤會轉動，這取決於我們看到的即將到來的情況。

I think we've got a -- unless something really dramatic occurred like what we saw many years ago after 9-11, I think we are able to turn those dials so that we can certainly maintain our operating margins and also maintain what we target, which is earnings growth in excess of -- significantly, actually, in excess of our revenue growth.

我認為我們有一個——除非發生了像我們多年前在 9-11 之後看到的那樣真正戲劇性的事情，我認為我們能夠轉動這些刻度盤，這樣我們當然可以保持我們的營業利潤率並保持我們的目標，這是收益增長超過 - 實際上，大大超過了我們的收入增長。

Have you seen any, basically, retrenchment in terms of investment by competitors or any kind of smaller competitors in terms of inventory service, etcetera, that would lead you to believe that we are entering a slower patch?

您是否看到競爭對手或任何規模較小的競爭對手在庫存服務等方面的投資基本上有所縮減，這會讓您相信我們正在進入一個較慢的時期？

I'd rather not characterize anything that we're seeing, certainly, from some of our larger competitors.

當然，我寧願不描述我們從一些更大的競爭對手那裡看到的任何東西。

Smaller competitors are always scrappy in a more difficult environment.

較小的競爭對手在更困難的環境中總是鬥志昂揚。

They generally only have one weapon -- that's not so; they've usually got two weapons.

他們通常只有一種武器——事實並非如此；他們通常有兩把武器。

But the primary is pricing; the other is the depths of their relationship.

但首要的是定價；另一個是他們關係的深度。

I guess the only other kind of indicator -- and that's pretty typical of what we would see in an environment like this.

我猜是唯一的另一種指標——這是我們在這樣的環境中看到的非常典型的指標。

I guess the only other is that we've been extraordinarily successful in attracting new candidates to MSC.

我想唯一的另一個是我們在吸引新候選人加入 MSC 方面非常成功。

We are, I guess, a pretty exciting place in industrial distribution, and so it has been really fertile ground for us to attract new candidates, and new members to our team.

我想，我們在工業分銷方面是一個非常令人興奮的地方，因此我們吸引新候選人和新成員加入我們的團隊確實是肥沃的土壤。

I think that's also indicative of the environment -- being at a place where you can really count on the level of service that's going to be consistently and reliably delivered to a customer and having a value basket that, frankly, we think can't be beat.

我認為這也表明了環境——在一個你可以真正依靠服務水平的地方，該服務水平將始終如一、可靠地交付給客戶，並且擁有一個坦率地說，我們認為不可能的價值籃子打。

Yvonne Varano, Jefferies.

伊馮娜·瓦拉諾，傑富瑞。

I know J&L UK is a small part of the business, but can you just comment on what you're seeing in the markets over there, what the plans might be for that business going forward?

我知道 J&L UK 只是業務的一小部分，但您能否評論一下您在那邊市場上看到的情況，該業務未來的計劃是什麼？

As we've said, we've done a lot of work through the spring and through the summer on systems migration, getting the back end fully assimilated.

正如我們所說，在整個春季和夏季，我們在系統遷移方面做了很多工作，使後端完全同化。

The team is very focused on now beginning to train, assimilate and grow our business.

團隊現在非常專注於培訓、吸收和發展我們的業務。

Frankly, one of the core drivers, we said, is taking the MSC product line and, in particular, our MRO line and beginning to penetrate the J&L customer base.

坦率地說，我們說，核心驅動力之一是採用 MSC 產品線，特別是我們的 MRO 產品線，並開始滲透 J&L 客戶群。

That's really the primary focus.

這確實是主要焦點。

Some teams have been fully trained.

一些團隊已經接受了全面培訓。

Other teams that drive growth are in varying stages of being trained.

其他推動增長的團隊正處於不同的培訓階段。

That's a current focus, and it's something that will occur, really, throughout all of 2008.

這是當前的焦點，而且它確實會在 2008 年全年發生。

And we think that once we're fully assimilated and trained, the growth, which is relatively small now but growing, will grow throughout all of 2008 and contribute in a much more meaningful way in fiscal 2009.

我們認為，一旦我們被完全吸收和訓練，現在相對較小但正在增長的增長將在 2008 年全年增長，並在 2009 財年以更有意義的方式做出貢獻。

Do you see J&L UK, though, as a platform to continue to make acquisitions?

不過，您是否將 J&L UK 視為繼續進行收購的平台？

Certainly, we're not ready to comment on what we see for the UK.

當然，我們還沒有準備好評論我們對英國的看法。

We will tell you that the business very well could be a platform.

我們會告訴你，這個業務很可能是一個平台。

They've got a great team.

他們有一個很棒的團隊。

We've really got a nice little infrastructure over there.

我們那裡真的有一個不錯的小基礎設施。

The market, as we are learning and continue to learn, seems to be very fragmented and we think may in fact be a platform, certainly, to the UK and maybe even beyond, into Europe.

正如我們正在學習和繼續學習的那樣，市場似乎非常分散，我們認為實際上可能是一個平台，當然，對於英國，甚至可能是歐洲以外的地方。

It's a bit premature.

這有點為時過早。

Certainly, it's not what our current focus is, although certainly the focus of the terrific UK team and just continuing to execute their plan and grow their business.

當然，這不是我們目前的重點，儘管這支出色的英國團隊肯定是重點，只是繼續執行他們的計劃並發展他們的業務。

But the bottom line is we do think that it's a really good opportunity for us, long-term, in the future.

但最重要的是，我們確實認為這對我們來說是一個非常好的機會，從長遠來看，在未來。

What are you currently seeing in the UK in terms of the overall market?

就整體市場而言，您目前在英國看到了什麼？

Actually, their economy has been pretty good.

事實上，他們的經濟一直很好。

But we don't breakout or characterize the growth rates that we're achieving over there other than to say that we're very pleased with the results.

但我們不會突破或描述我們在那裡實現的增長率，只是說我們對結果非常滿意。

Adam Uhlman, Cleveland Research.

Adam Uhlman，克利夫蘭研究中心。

I had a couple of questions regarding the supplemental data on the website.

關於網站上的補充數據，我有幾個問題。

First of all, the Web sales category -- it looks like you added J&L and income to the numbers.

首先，網絡銷售類別——看起來您在數字中添加了 J&L 和收入。

What was the growth for only mscdirect.com, on a comparable basis?

在可比較的基礎上，僅 mscdirect.com 的增長是多少？

I'm looking at them, and -- do you have --

我看著他們，而且——你有——

Yes.

是的。

We're not going to break that out anymore.

我們不會再打破它了。

The Web sites do have different value statements on them.

這些網站確實有不同的價值聲明。

They're all being processed together.

它們都在一起處理。

There is a lot of crossover buying going on now between J&L customers and MSC customers, frankly, both ways.

坦率地說，現在 J&L 客戶和 MSC 客戶之間正在進行大量交叉購買，這是雙向的。

That's great for us, so that statistic starts to lose any real meaning.

這對我們來說很好，因此統計數據開始失去任何真正的意義。

So we're looking at the things together.

所以我們一起看事情。

That's the way we're going to report it from now on out.

這就是我們從現在開始報告它的方式。

So that $115 million in a quarter, actually, on an annualized run rate -- I don't know if it shows there, but we are now at just under 26% of our business.

因此，實際上，按年化運行率計算，一個季度的 1.15 億美元——我不知道它是否顯示出來，但我們現在只占我們業務的不到 26%。

That growth, with the three sites on an apples-to-apples is actually about 29%, 28.8%.

這種增長，與蘋果對蘋果的三個網站實際上是大約 29%、28.8%。

So very strong growth and a very meaningful contributor in the business.

如此強勁的增長和業務中非常有意義的貢獻者。

Typically, you provide a forecast of what you are thinking about direct-mail shipments pieces, either for the first quarter or out a couple of quarters.

通常，您會預測第一季度或幾個季度的直郵發貨量。

How should we think about that in the first quarter and the out a few?

我們應該如何看待第一季度和接下來的幾個？

I'm actually looking to see if --

我其實是想看看——

If it's not on the website -- in the past, we have included information about the rest of the year on an estimated basis.

如果它不在網站上 - 在過去，我們已經根據估計包含了有關今年剩餘時間的信息。

We'll put it up again probably at the end of the first quarter.

我們可能會在第一季度末再次提出。

I don't think you're looking at anything in the first quarter that's substantially different than where we have been going.

我不認為你在第一季度看到的任何事情與我們一直在做的事情有很大不同。

We will get that projection re-posted.

我們將重新發布該預測。

You are right; we typically do that.

你說的對;我們通常會這樣做。

Then the last question I had for you is that it looks like you had included the J&L numbers into the average transaction size as well.

然後我問您的最後一個問題是，您似乎也將 J&L 數字包含在平均交易規模中。

Was that dilutive to your average transaction size or accretive?

這是否稀釋了您的平均交易規模或增值？

Or how should we think about the underlying progression of the average order size?

或者我們應該如何考慮平均訂單規模的潛在進展？

It's now all blended in, but I will tell you that is dilutive to the average order size which means that obviously, since we grew, there are other factors within MSC and some of our large customer programs that drove it higher, given the fact that the J&L, when we blended in, was dilutive to it.

現在一切都混在一起了，但我會告訴你，這會稀釋平均訂單規模，這意味著顯然，自從我們成長以來，MSC 內部還有其他因素以及我們的一些大型客戶計劃推動它走高，因為事實上當我們融入其中時，J&L 對其進行了稀釋。

You have been running like 6% to 8% year-over-year growth in average transaction size for most of the year.

在一年中的大部分時間裡，您的平均交易規模一直在同比增長 6% 到 8%。

Do you think, on a comparable basis, we're still in that same range?

你認為，在可比的基礎上，我們仍然在同一個範圍內嗎？

Or how would you think about that on an apples-to-apples basis?

或者你會如何看待這個問題？

I think I'm not going to characterize breaking it out between the two because, again, it's one of the reasons that we have been very careful to not break it out is because the accuracy of breaking out those metrics -- we don't want to go there.

我認為我不打算在兩者之間進行劃分，因為再次強調，這是我們一直非常小心不將其劃分出來的原因之一，因為劃分這些指標的準確性——我們不想去那裡。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I would now like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給管理層，以獲取任何結束語。

Thank you, Matthew, and thank you all for your time and your interest today.

謝謝你，馬修，感謝大家今天的時間和興趣。

We look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Bye-bye.

再見。

This concludes today's MSC conference call.

今天的 MSC 電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。