微軟 (MSFT) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to Microsoft's third quarter FY16 earnings call.

    歡迎參加微軟2016財年第三季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to turn the call over to Chris Suh, General Manager of Investor Relations. Chris, please proceed.

    再次提醒,本次會議正在錄影。我謹將電話轉交給投資人關係總經理 Chris Suh。克里斯,請繼續。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On the call, with me today are Satya Nadella, Chief Executive Officer, Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer, Frank Brod, Chief Accounting Officer, and John Seethoff, Deputy General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.

    謝謝。下午好,感謝各位今天蒞臨。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有:執行長薩蒂亞·納德拉、財務長艾米·胡德、首席會計官弗蘭克·布羅德以及副總法律顧問兼公司秘書約翰·西索夫。

  • On our website, microsoft.com/investor, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call, and provide the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Unless otherwise specified, we will refer to non-GAAP metrics on the call. The non-GAAP measures exclude the net impact from revenue deferrals, and the impact of integration and restructuring charges. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items, to aid investors in further understanding the Company's third quarter performance, in addition to the impact that these items and events had on the financial results.

    在我們的網站 microsoft.com/investor 上,您可以找到我們的收益新聞稿和財務摘要幻燈片,旨在補充我們今天電話會議上的發言,並提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的調整表。除非另有說明,否則我們將在電話會議中提及非GAAP指標。非GAAP指標不包括收入遞延的淨影響以及整合和重組費用的影響。所提供的非GAAP財務指標不應被視為替代或優於依照GAAP編製的財務績效指標。這些內容作為補充說明項目列出,旨在幫助投資者進一步了解公司第三季度的業績,以及這些項目和事件對財務業績的影響。

  • All growth comparisons we make on the call relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless otherwise noted. We also provide growth rates in constant currency when available, as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. At the segment level, we provide constant currency growth for both revenue and gross margin. However, due to recent change to our external reporting segments, we aren't able to provide segment level constant currency operating expense growth, and consequently, cannot derive constant currency segment operating income either. We do provide constant currency operating expense, and operating income growth at the company-wide level.

    除非另有說明,我們在電話會議中所做的所有成長比較均與去年同期相關。我們也會提供以固定匯率計算的成長率(如有),作為評估我們基礎業務表現的框架,排除外匯匯率波動的影響。在業務部門層面,我們以固定匯率計算收入和毛利率的成長。然而,由於我們最近對外部報告分部進行了調整,我們無法提供分部層級的固定匯率營運費用成長,因此也無法得出固定匯率分部營運收入。我們提供以固定匯率計算的公司整體營運費用和營運收入成長。

  • Please note that in the third quarter of FY16, we adopted a new standard issued by the FASB, that made certain changes to accounting for stock-based compensation. One of the more significant changes require that excess tax benefits and deficiencies be recorded as part of income tax expense, rather than as part of additional paid-in capital. Adoption of the new guidance requires us to reflect adjustments as of July 1, 2015, and hence impacts our previously reported quarterly results for FY16. You can find additional information in the financial summary slide deck, and in our 10-Q filing.

    請注意,在 2016 財年第三季度,我們採用了 FASB 發布的一項新準則,該準則對股票選擇權激勵的會計處理進行了一些更改。其中一項更重要的變更要求將超額稅收優惠和稅收不足計入所得稅費用,而不是計入額外實收資本。採納新的指導方針要求我們從 2015 年 7 月 1 日起進行調整,因此會影響我們先前公佈的 2016 財年季度業績。您可以在財務摘要幻燈片和我們的 10-Q 文件中找到更多資訊。

  • We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call, until the complete transcript is available. Today's call is being webcast live, and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call, and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website until April 21, 2017.

    通話結束後,我們將立即在網站上發布準備好的發言稿,直到完整的通話記錄發佈為止。今天的電話會議將進行網路直播和錄製。如果您提出問題,該問題將包含在我們的直播節目中、節目文字稿中,以及錄音的任何未來用途。您可以重播此電話會議,並在 2017 年 4 月 21 日之前在微軟投資者關係網站上查看會議記錄。

  • During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factors section of our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Satya.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明,這些聲明是對未來事件的預測、展望或其他陳述。這些陳述是基於當前的預期和假設,但存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與預期有重大差異,原因包括今天發布的獲利新聞稿、本次電話會議中的評論以及我們在 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告和文件中風險因素部分討論的因素。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。說完這些,我將把電話轉給 Satya。

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • Thank you, Chris, and thanks to everyone on the phone for joining. Overall, we had a solid quarter. Amy and I look forward to sharing more about the results, and what's ahead. We delivered $22.1 billion in revenue, with an operating income of $6.8 billion.

    謝謝你,克里斯,也謝謝所有電話參與的朋友。整體而言,我們本季業績穩健。艾米和我期待與大家分享更多結果以及未來的計劃。我們實現了 221 億美元的收入,營業利潤為 68 億美元。

  • We exceeded $10 billion in commercial cloud annualized revenue run rate. We are halfway to our FY18 goal of $20 billion. This quarter, we surpassed 270 million monthly active devices running Windows 10. We are proud of our progress, and look forward to making more, as enterprise deployments accelerate.

    我們的商業雲年化收入運行率突破了100億美元。我們距離2018財年200億美元的目標已經完成一半了。本季度,運行 Windows 10 的月活躍設備數量超過 2.7 億台。我們為所取得的進展感到自豪,並期待隨著企業部署的加速,取得更大的成就。

  • Now let's get to the specifics of each of our three segments, starting with productivity and business process. We set out to reinvent productivity and business process, because we believe that people should get more out of every moment, and organizations should be able to reach new levels of effectiveness. This approach is opening up new growth opportunity for Microsoft in three ways. We can reach more users, enter new markets, and build a developer platform.

    現在讓我們來詳細了解這三個部分,首先是生產力和業務流程。我們致力於革新生產力和業務流程,因為我們相信人們應該充分利用每一刻,而組織也應該能夠達到新的效率水準。這種方法從三個方面為微軟開闢了新的成長機會。我們可以觸達更多用戶,進入新市場,並建立開發者平台。

  • Let me talk through each. First, we are reaching new users, and strengthening our productivity platform. Consumer subscriptions of Office grew to more than 22 million. Devices with our mobile apps grew approximately 4 times year-over-year. Commercial Office 365 customers surpassed 70 million monthly active users, and we grew seats by 57%.

    讓我逐一講解。首先,我們正在拓展新用戶,並加強我們的生產力平台。Office 的消費者訂閱用戶成長至超過 2,200 萬。搭載我們行動應用的設備數量較去年同期成長約 4 倍。商業版 Office 365 的客戶每月活躍用戶超過 7,000 萬,席次數量增加了 57%。

  • Second, we are expanding into new markets such as security, analytics, and cloud voice, where we see an opportunity, and where we can differentiate. For example, the cybersecurity market is expanding rapidly, and it's a place where we have unique capabilities like advanced threat protection, cloud app security, and advanced e-discovery. This combination drove a 35% quarter-over-quarter growth of monthly active users of our premium information protection services in Office 365. A key driver of this growth is our new premium Office 365 Suite E5.

    其次,我們正在向安全、分析和雲端語音等新市場拓展,在這些市場中我們看到了機會,也看到了我們能夠脫穎而出的機會。例如,網路安全市場正在迅速擴張,而我們在這個領域擁有獨特的能力,例如進階威脅防護、雲端應用安全和進階電子發現。這個組合推動了我們在 Office 365 中提供的高級資訊保護服務的每月活躍用戶數環比增長 35%。推動這一成長的關鍵因素是我們全新的高級版 Office 365 套件 E5。

  • Lastly, we're making Office 365 more than a world-class productivity and communications service. It's becoming a growing platform for developers. There is an incredible amount of value developers can deliver by harnessing the data in this platform. It can be as simple as Starbucks enabling somebody to email a cup of coffee, or it can be as a sophisticated as DocuSign, streamlining processes for digital signatures based on the understanding of people's availability and organizational hierarchy.

    最後,我們將 Office 365 打造成不僅是世界一流的生產力和通訊服務。它正逐漸成為一個日益壯大的開發者平台。開發者可以利用該平台中的數據創造巨大的價值。它可以像星巴克讓某人透過電子郵件訂購一杯咖啡那樣簡單,也可以像 DocuSign 那樣複雜,它根據人們對自身空閒時間和組織層級的了解,簡化數位簽名流程。

  • We continue to make advances in our developer platform by expanding Microsoft Graph APIs, and opening Skype to developers. This is generating developer momentum. In fact, active apps calling on Microsoft Graph APIs are up month over month.

    我們透過擴展 Microsoft Graph API 和向開發者開放 Skype,持續推動我們的開發者平台發展。這正在激發開發者的積極性。事實上,呼叫 Microsoft Graph API 的活躍應用程式數量逐月成長。

  • In business process applications, our Dynamics product line is expanding to include new scenarios such as IoT, field service, customer self-service, and built-in business intelligence and advanced analytics. For example, Echo Labs uses CRM online with Azure IoT, not only to help their customers use water systems more efficiently, but also to predict equipment failure, and direct field engineers to respond. And Just Eat in the UK uses Dynamics AX to make it easy for millions of people to order food for take-outs online. These are scenarios are driving new growth. Dynamics CRM online seats more than doubled this quarter, with over 80% of our new CRM customers deploying in the cloud. We grew Dynamics AX revenue double-digits.

    在業務流程應用方面,我們的 Dynamics 產品線正在擴展,以涵蓋物聯網、現場服務、客戶自助服務以及內建商業智慧和高級分析等新場景。例如,Echo Labs 使用 CRM Online 和 Azure IoT,不僅幫助客戶更有效地使用水系統,而且還預測設備故障,並指導現場工程師回應。英國的 Just Eat 使用 Dynamics AX,讓數百萬人能夠輕鬆地在線上訂購外帶食品。這些因素正在推動新的成長。本季度 Dynamics CRM 線上用戶數量增加了一倍多,超過 80% 的新 CRM 客戶都在雲端部署了 CRM 系統。Dynamics AX 的營收實現了兩位數的成長。

  • Now let's move to the intelligent cloud segment. The cloud is being built into every organization's quest to optimize and grow. With our results this quarter, it remains clear, we are one of the two leaders in this market.

    現在我們來看看智慧雲領域。雲端運算正融入每個組織優化和發展的過程中。從本季的業績來看,我們仍然是這個市場上的兩大領導企業之一。

  • Azure revenue increased 120% in constant currency, with revenue from premium services growing triple-digits for the seventh consecutive quarter. We are innovating in new areas to help organizations digitally transform. We're expanding our competitive strength in hybrid computing. We're generating opportunity for developers and partners.

    Azure 營收以固定匯率計算成長了 120%,其中高階服務收入連續第七個季度實現三位數成長。我們正在新的領域進行創新,以幫助組織實現數位轉型。我們正在增強在混合計算領域的競爭力。我們正在為開發者和合作夥伴創造機會。

  • To start, we added more differentiation to high-value services in Azure this quarter in three areas that are top of mind for our customers, artificial intelligence, IoT and business analytics. We expanded Cortana Intelligence Suite, our big data and analytics service that transforms data into predictions and intelligent action. It now includes over 20 cognitive services ranging from object and emotion recognition to text and linguistic analysis.

    首先,本季我們在 Azure 中針對客戶最關心的三個領域——人工智慧、物聯網和商業分析——增加了更多高價值服務的差異化優勢。我們擴展了 Cortana Intelligence Suite,我們的大數據和分析服務可以將數據轉化為預測和智慧行動。現在它包含 20 多項認知服務,涵蓋物件和情感識別、文本和語言分析等領域。

  • The IoT market is expanding as companies look to deliver new services and value. Our new Azure IoT suite streamlines the process of building IoT applications, and acts as the hub for managing and monitoring millions of assets. Each week, more than 2 trillion IoT messages are processed by Azure. And analytics is another rapidly growing market, where Power BI has more than 200,000 customers and 5 million users. Companies like Toyota, BMW, Johnson Controls are all using Cortana Intelligence Suite, Azure IoT, and Power BI to transform themselves as well as their industries.

    隨著企業尋求提供新的服務和價值,物聯網市場正在不斷擴大。我們全新的 Azure IoT 套件簡化了建立 IoT 應用程式的流程,並作為管理和監控數百萬資產的中心。Azure 每週處理超過 2 兆個物聯網訊息。分析是另一個快速成長的市場,Power BI 在該領域擁有超過 20 萬名客戶和 500 萬用戶。豐田、寶馬、江森自控等公司都在使用 Cortana Intelligence Suite、Azure IoT 和 Power BI 來改變自身及其所在的產業。

  • Siemens is also using Azure to connect and analyze data from medical imaging systems around the world, helping providers in their effort to transform healthcare. We're the only cloud provider that helps companies embrace the cloud on their own terms, and we continue to innovate in areas that make it easier for our customers, including the recently released preview of Azure Stack, and by bringing SQL Server to Linux.

    西門子也利用 Azure 連接和分析來自世界各地醫療影像系統的數據,幫助醫療機構努力實現醫療保健轉型。我們是唯一一家幫助企業以自身方式擁抱雲端運算的雲端供應商,我們不斷在各個領域進行創新,讓客戶使用起來更加便捷,包括最近發布的 Azure Stack 預覽版,以及將 SQL Server 移植到 Linux 平台。

  • A critical part of this flexibility is giving customers tools to secure their data, wherever it is, on-premise, in the cloud, and across all their devices. We continue to grow in this market with enterprise mobility suite customers more than doubling to over 27,000. This is three consecutive quarters of triple-digit customer growth. This growth is driven by strong adoption across cloud services. For example, more than one-third of our Office 365 enterprise suite installed base has also purchased Enterprise Mobility services.

    這種靈活性的關鍵在於為客戶提供工具,無論資料位於何處,無論是在本地端、雲端或所有裝置上,都能確保資料安全。我們在這個市場持續成長,企業行動套件客戶數量翻了一番多,超過 27,000 家。這是連續三個季度客戶數量實現三位數成長。這一增長是由雲端服務的廣泛應用所推動的。例如,我們 Office 365 企業套件安裝用戶群中超過三分之一也購買了企業行動服務。

  • And as I said earlier, perhaps the biggest impact we can make is to empower developers. To this end, we are making Windows and Azure the very best environment for developers who want to build applications that run across multiple platforms. Our acquisition of Xamarin, and the inclusion of Bash in Windows 10 will make it easier to build intelligent experiences and apps that leverage our cloud, and run natively on Windows, iOS and Android. We're excited to announce at Build that we're making Xamarin freely available as part of Visual Studio.

    正如我之前所說,我們所能產生的最大影響或許就是賦予開發者權力。為此,我們正在努力將 Windows 和 Azure 打造成開發人員建構跨多個平台運行的應用程式的最佳環境。我們收購 Xamarin,並將 Bash 整合到 Windows 10 中,將使建置利用我們雲端的智慧體驗和應用程式變得更加容易,這些應用程式可以在 Windows、iOS 和 Android 上原生運行。我們很高興在 Build 大會上宣布,我們將免費提供 Xamarin 作為 Visual Studio 的一部分。

  • Now let's move to More Personal Computing segment. We are reinventing personal computers and personal computing for the mobile-first cloud-first world. In this world, what matters most is the mobility of a person's experience, not any one single device.

    現在我們進入「更多個人計算」部分。我們正在為行動優先、雲端優先的世界重新定義個人電腦和個人運算。在這個世界上,最重要的是個人體驗的靈活性,而不是任何單一的裝置。

  • As I shared last quarter, we think about our strategy along three lines. First, we will deliver more value and innovation, particularly for enterprise customers. Second, we will grow new monetization through services across the unified Windows platform. Third, we will innovate in new device categories in partnership with our OEMs.

    正如我上個季度分享的那樣,我們從三個方面來考慮我們的策略。首先,我們將提供更多價值和創新,特別是針對企業客戶。其次,我們將透過統一的 Windows 平台上的服務來拓展新的獲利模式。第三,我們將與我們的原始設備製造商合作,在新設備類別中進行創新。

  • First, let me talk through the innovation we're delivering that brings new levels of ease-of-use, trust, productivity to Windows, and specifically more value to our enterprise customers. What we hear most frequently from these customers is how much they value the advanced productivity, security, and device management capabilities in Windows 10. In fact this is what led to one of the most security-conscious organizations in the world, the United States Department of Defense, to upgrade all of their PCs and mobile devices to Windows 10 this year. We see this trend across our enterprise customers, with 83% of them in active pilots to date.

    首先,讓我來談談我們正在進行的創新,這些創新將為 Windows 帶來更高水準的易用性、信任度和生產力,尤其能為我們的企業客戶帶來更多價值。我們從這些客戶那裡聽到最多的回饋是,他們非常重視 Windows 10 的高階生產力、安全性和裝置管理功能。事實上,正是這一點促使世界上最注重安全的組織之一——美國國防部——在今年將其所有個人電腦和行動裝置升級到 Windows 10。我們在企業客戶中看到了這種趨勢,迄今為止,83% 的企業客戶都在積極進行試點專案。

  • We believe enterprise deployments will continue to drive up the over 270 million monthly active devices running Windows 10. The number of Windows 10 devices is twice that of Windows 7, over the same time period since launch. At Build, we gave people more reasons to upgrade with the announcement of new features in ink and touch interfaces, as well as Windows Hello biometric security, and deeper integration with Cortana, all coming this summer with the Windows 10 anniversary update.

    我們相信企業部署將繼續推動 Windows 10 的月活躍設備數量超過 2.7 億台。自發布以來,同期Windows 10裝置的數量是Windows 7裝置的兩倍。在 Build 大會上,我們宣布了墨水和觸控介面的新功能、Windows Hello 生物識別安全功能以及與 Cortana 的更深層次集成,所有這些都將在今年夏天隨 Windows 10 週年更新一起推出,這為人們提供了更多升級的理由。

  • Second, we're seeing new monetization through services across the Windows platform. Windows Store received more than 5 billion visits. We are excited about compelling new apps coming from Disney, Square Enix, Bank of America, King, Instagram and many others. We grew the number of universal Windows app developers 60% this quarter.

    其次,我們看到透過 Windows 平台上的各種服務實現了新的獲利模式。Windows 應用程式商店訪問量超過 50 億次。我們很高興看到迪士尼、史克威爾艾尼克斯、美國銀行、King、Instagram 等眾多公司即將推出引人入勝的新應用程式。本季度,我們的通用 Windows 應用程式開發者數量增加了 60%。

  • In search, developers have already built over 1,000 apps designed for Cortana. These new third-party experiences, and the 6.3 billion questions people have asked are helping make Cortana smarter and driving search engagement. Over 35% of our search revenue last month came from Windows 10 devices.

    在搜尋領域,開發者已經建立了超過 1000 個專為 Cortana 設計的應用程式。這些新的第三方體驗,以及人們提出的 63 億個問題,正在幫助 Cortana 變得更智能,並推動搜尋參與度。上個月,我們超過 35% 的搜尋收入來自 Windows 10 裝置。

  • In gaming, monthly active users of Xbox Live grew 26% year-over-year, driven by the growth of Xbox One and Windows 10. Xbox One continues to outpace prior generations in both reach and engagement. At the same time, we continue to create synergies between Xbox One and Windows 10 devices. Bringing top Xbox One titles to Windows Store helped grow gaming hours on Windows 10 by 50% over last quarter. And starting this summer, universal Windows apps will run on Xbox One, making it easy to build applications and games that work across devices.

    在遊戲領域,Xbox Live 的月活躍用戶年增 26%,這主要得益於 Xbox One 和 Windows 10 的成長。Xbox One 在用戶覆蓋範圍和用戶參與度方面持續超越前幾代產品。同時,我們繼續在 Xbox One 和 Windows 10 裝置之間創造協同效應。將 Xbox One 的熱門遊戲引入 Windows 應用程式商店,使得 Windows 10 上的遊戲時長比上一季成長了 50%。從今年夏天開始,通用 Windows 應用程式將在 Xbox One 上運行,因此可以輕鬆建立可在各種裝置上運行的應用程式和遊戲。

  • Third, we continue to innovate in new device categories in partnership with our OEMs. We're pleased with the results from Surface this quarter. This is our second $1 billion revenue quarter for Surface in a row, and it's the first outside of a holiday period. Revenue grew 61% in constant currency, driven by Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book. Certainly, consumers value these devices, but where we see the strongest momentum is through adoption in the commercial space, with particular strength in financial services, manufacturing, and healthcare.

    第三,我們繼續與 OEM 廠商合作,在新設備類別中進行創新。我們對 Surface 本季的業績感到滿意。這是 Surface 產品連續第二季營收達到 10 億美元,也是第一個非假日期間的季度營收。以固定匯率計算,營收成長了 61%,主要得益於 Surface Pro 4 和 Surface Book 的銷售成長。當然,消費者很重視這些設備,但我們看到最強勁的發展勢頭來自於商業領域的採用,尤其是在金融服務、製造業和醫療保健領域。

  • Our OEM partners are also innovating in new device areas for consumers and business customers. In particular, they too, are seeing growth in the two-in-one device category. As you can see, we think about renewing growth of Windows, we think broadly about where growth can come from. We see early signs of success in Windows driving increased engagement and monetization of services like search, store and gaming, as well as new sources of revenue from Surface. As we build premium devices and premium categories, we're also stimulating demand across our entire ecosystem.

    我們的OEM合作夥伴也正在為消費者和企業客戶開發新的設備領域。尤其值得一提的是,他們也看到了二合一設備領域的成長。正如你所看到的,我們思考如何重振 Windows 的成長,我們從更廣泛的角度思考成長的來源。我們看到 Windows 取得了初步成功,推動了搜尋、商店和遊戲等服務的參與度和獲利能力的提高,以及 Surface 帶來的新收入來源。隨著我們打造高階設備和高階產品類別,我們也刺激了整個生態系統的需求。

  • Ultimately, the largest potential for Microsoft's growth will come through reinvention of personal computers and personal computing, as well as the new platforms we create. This broader mobile-first cloud-first opportunity cuts across all of our financial segments and technology ambition. And this is what we shared with developers at Build, and with business leaders at EnVision a few weeks ago. I hope you have had the chance to watch these events as well.

    最終,微軟最大的成長潛力將來自於對個人電腦和個人運算的重新發明,以及我們創造的新平台。這種更廣泛的行動優先、雲端優先的機會貫穿我們所有的金融部門和技術目標。這就是我們幾週前在 Build 大會上與開發者們以及在 EnVision 大會上與企業領導者分享的內容。希望您也有機會觀賞了這些賽事。

  • We are creating entirely new ways for people to interact with technology, and also new ways for them to build technology. HoloLens developer kit is one such example. Organizations around the world like Volvo and NASA are using HoloLens to redefine what it means to build and explore, and Case Western University is redefining how students learn to be world-class surgeons.

    我們正在創造人與科技互動的全新方式,以及人創造科技的新方式。HoloLens開發者套件就是其中一個例子。世界各地的組織,例如沃爾沃和美國宇航局,正在使用 HoloLens 重新定義建造和探索的意義,而凱斯西儲大學正在重新定義學生如何學習成為世界一流的外科醫生。

  • Conversational interfaces is another example. We envision a world where people will more naturally interact with their devices in the future through conversation. Imagine simply asking Cortana to book a hotel, or being able to order a pizza through an instant message in Skype. Conversations will be a new platform that every business, every app, and every website will begin to embrace, and we're at the forefront driving this platform shift. We are building out cloud services and platform to enable every business, across every industry to digitally transform themselves, and in turn build their own capability to create more digital technology.

    對話式介面是另一個例子。我們設想,未來人們將透過對話更自然地與設備互動。想像一下,只要讓 Cortana 幫你預訂飯店,或透過 Skype 即時通訊訂購披薩。對話將成為每個企業、每個應用程式和每個網站都將開始採用的新平台,而我們正處於推動這項平台轉變的最前沿。我們正在建構雲端服務和平台,使每個產業、每個企業都能實現數位轉型,進而建構自身創造更多數位技術的能力。

  • Empowering people and organizations to thrive in this digital world is central to Microsoft's mission. I'm proud of our execution so far, and what we have achieved, and I'm also grounded in the work ahead of us. With that, I'll hand over to Amy to go through this quarter's results in greater detail, and share our outlook for the next quarter. And I look forward to rejoining you, after that to answer questions.

    幫助個人和組織在這個數位世界中蓬勃發展是微軟使命的核心。我為我們迄今為止的執行情況和所取得的成就感到自豪,同時也對我們未來的工作充滿信心。接下來,我將把發言權交給艾米,讓她更詳細地介紹本季的業績,並分享我們對下一季的展望。之後我期待再次與大家見面,回答大家的問題。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. This quarter, revenue was $22.1 billion, up 2%, and up 5% in constant currency. Gross margin declined slightly, but was up 4% in constant currency. We grew operating income this quarter by 1%, and 10% in constant currency. And earnings per share was $0.62, flat year-over-year, and up 10% in constant currency. Our effective tax rate was 24%, higher than we anticipated, which impacted our EPS.

    謝謝你,薩蒂亞,大家下午好。本季營收為 221 億美元,年增 2%,以固定匯率計算成長 5%。毛利率略有下降,但以固定匯率計算增加了 4%。本季我們的營業收入成長了1%,以固定匯率計算成長了10%。每股收益為 0.62 美元,與去年同期持平,以固定匯率計算成長 10%。我們的實際稅率為 24%,高於預期,這影響了我們的每股盈餘。

  • From a geographic perspective, our performance in most markets was as anticipated. However, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa were more unfavorable than we expected. In our commercial business, we continued to see healthy fundamentals which led to a solid quarter of results. Commercial bookings increased 7%, up 9% in constant currency.

    從地理角度來看,我們在大多數市場的表現都符合預期。然而,拉丁美洲、中東和非洲的情況比我們預期的要糟糕得多。在商業業務方面,我們繼續保持良好的基本面,從而取得了穩健的季度業績。商業預訂量成長了 7%,以固定匯率計算成長了 9%。

  • Our total commercial annuity business had double-digit revenue growth in constant currency, and commercial annuity mix reached 86%, up 4 points year-over-year. Commercial unearned revenue grew to just under $18.8 billion, up 3% and 8% in constant currency, slightly below expectations due to a higher mix of contracts with more in-period recognition, and some deal weakness in the geographic markets mentioned earlier. Our contracted not billed balance again exceeded $25 billion. Most important, as Satya mentioned earlier, our commercial cloud annualized revenue run rate surpassed $10 billion.

    我們商業年金業務的總營收以固定匯率計算實現了兩位數成長,商業年金佔比達到 86%,年增 4 個百分點。商業未實現營收成長至略低於 188 億美元,以固定匯率計算成長 3% 和 8%,略低於預期,原因是當期確認的合約比例較高,以及前面提到的某些地區市場的交易疲軟。我們的合約未結算餘額再次超過 250 億美元。最重要的是,正如薩蒂亞之前提到的,我們的商業雲端年度收入運行率超過了 100 億美元。

  • This quarter, more than 65% of customers who signed enterprise agreements attached our commercial cloud offers, up 15 points from last year. Our customers continue to make long-term commitments based on our compelling road map. Our commercial cloud gross margin was 45% this quarter, declining year-over-year. This decrease was driven by a higher mix of Azure revenue, our ongoing investment in data center capacity and geographic expansion, and a small FX headwind.

    本季度,簽署企業協議的客戶中有超過 65% 的人附加了我們的商業雲端服務,比去年同期成長了 15 個百分點。基於我們極具吸引力的發展路線圖,我們的客戶持續做出長期承諾。本季我們的商業雲毛利率為 45%,年減。這一下降是由於 Azure 收入佔比增加、我們對資料中心容量和地理擴張的持續投資以及輕微的匯率不利因素。

  • As I mentioned last quarter, even as we're focused on gross margin improvement within each of our key cloud services, our total commercial cloud gross margin will reflect the dynamics of change in revenue mix, and targeted investment. In Q3, the FX impact of 3 points on year-over-year revenue growth was generally in line with the guidance, as the recent weakening in the US dollar created less than 1 point of impact overall, and across segments.

    正如我在上個季度所提到的,即使我們專注於提高每個主要雲端服務的毛利率,我們的商業雲端總毛利率也將反映收入結構變化和有針對性的投資的動態。第三季度,匯率波動對年比營收成長的影響為 3 個百分點,這與預期基本一致,因為近期美元走軟對整體及各業務板塊的影響均不到 1 個百分點。

  • As Chris explained earlier, we're not able to provide constant currency impact at the segment level for operating expenses, and therefore segment operating income. In general, FX had a favorable impact of 1 point on operating expenses at the total Company level. As expected, our Company gross margin percentage declined this quarter, driven by our accelerating mix of cloud services, in our intelligent cloud, and productivity and business processes segment, offset by higher gross margin percentage performance from products within More Personal Computing.

    正如 Chris 先前所解釋的那樣,我們無法提供分部層級營運費用的固定匯率影響,因此也無法提供分部營運收入。總體而言,外匯對公司整體營運費用產生了 1 個百分點的有利影響。正如預期的那樣,由於智慧雲端、生產力和業務流程部門中雲端服務組合的加速成長,我們公司的毛利率在本季度有所下降,但更多個人運算產品毛利率的提高抵消了這一影響。

  • Now to our segment results. This quarter, our productivity and business processes segment delivered in line with our expectations, with $6.5 billion in revenue increasing 1% and 6% in constant currency, with higher annuity mix offsetting lower transactional weakness results due to a weaker PC market. In office commercial, revenue was flat, and grew 7% in constant currency, driven by continued momentum in Office 365, with installed base growth across Office, Exchange, SharePoint, and Skype Workloads. Our channel again expanded this quarter, as more than 85,000 transacting partners sold Office 365 to small business customers.

    現在來看我們各部分的業績結果。本季度,我們的生產力和業務流程部門業績符合預期,營收達 65 億美元,按固定匯率計算增長 1% 和 6%,年金業務佔比提高抵消了因個人電腦市場疲軟而導致的交易業務業績下滑。在辦公室商業領域,收入持平,按固定匯率計算增長了 7%,這主要得益於 Office 365 的持續增長勢頭,Office、Exchange、SharePoint 和 Skype 工作負載的安裝基礎均有所增長。本季我們的通路再次擴張,超過 85,000 家交易合作夥伴向小型企業客戶銷售了 Office 365。

  • Office consumer revenue increased 3% and 6% in constant currency, due to an increasing base of subscribers and recurring subscription revenue, and our dynamics business grew 4%, up 9% in constant currency. We more than doubled CRM online seats for the sixth consecutive quarter. Segment gross margin dollars declined 4%, up 1% in constant currency.

    由於訂閱用戶基數和經常性訂閱收入的增加,辦公室消費收入按固定匯率計算增長了 3% 和 6%;我們的動態業務增長了 4%,按固定匯率計算增長了 9%。我們連續第六個季度實現了 CRM 線上席位數量增加一倍以上。分部毛利率(美元)下降 4%,以固定匯率計算成長 1%。

  • As we've discussed, gross margin percentage declined on a higher cloud services revenue mix within the segment. Operating expenses decreased 1%, even as we continued engineering investments in our Office 365 and dynamics businesses, and prioritized spend in growth areas like E5, security and voice capabilities. As a result, operating income declined 7%.

    正如我們之前討論過的,由於該業務板塊中雲端服務收入佔比上升,毛利率有所下降。即使我們繼續對 Office 365 和 Dynamics 業務進行工程投資,並將支出優先用於 E5、安全和語音功能等成長領域,營運費用仍下降了 1%。因此,營業收入下降了7%。

  • The intelligent cloud segment delivered $6.1 billion in revenue, which grew 3% and 8% in constant currency, just at the low end of our guidance range. Our total server products and cloud services revenue was flat year-over-year, and increased 5% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that had 16% constant currency growth. This quarter, our enterprise server customers continued their commitment to our hybrid cloud platform offerings, which resulted in double-digit annuity revenue growth in constant currency, including over 100% growth in Azure. That growth was partially offset by a larger than expected decline in our transactional on-premise server business, which impacted the in-quarter results.

    智慧雲端業務板塊實現營收 61 億美元,以固定匯率運算成長 3% 和 8%,恰好處於我們預期範圍的下限。我們的伺服器產品和雲端服務總收入與去年持平,按固定匯率計算增長了 5%,而去年同期按固定匯率計算增長了 16%。本季度,我們的企業伺服器客戶繼續致力於我們的混合雲平台產品,這使得以固定匯率計算的年金收入實現了兩位數的成長,其中 Azure 的成長超過 100%。這一成長被我們交易型本地伺服器業務超出預期的下滑幅度部分抵消,從而影響了當季業績。

  • Enterprise services continued to perform well, with 11% revenue growth or 15% in constant currency, driven by customer demand for our support services and solutions. Gross margin declined 2%, and grew 3% in constant currency. Gross margin percentage declined, as cloud mix accelerated, offsetting margin improvements in Azure and enterprise services.

    企業服務業務持續表現良好,營收成長 11%,以固定匯率計算成長 15%,這主要得益於客戶對我們的支援服務和解決方案的需求。毛利率下降了 2%,但以固定匯率計算增加了 3%。由於雲端服務佔比加快,抵消了 Azure 和企業服務利潤率的提高,毛利率下降。

  • In response to enterprise customer demand, and to increase our share in the cloud market, we grew operating expenses by 13% through Azure-focused investments across engineering, additional sales and marketing capacity, and the acquisition of Xamarin. This quarter, operating income declined 14%.

    為了回應企業客戶的需求,並提高我們在雲端市場的份額,我們透過專注於 Azure 的工程投資、增加銷售和行銷能力以及收購 Xamarin,使營運支出增加了 13%。本季營業收入下降了14%。

  • Now to our final segment, More Personal Computing. Revenue exceeded our expectations at $9.5 billion, up 1% and 3% in constant currency. First, our OEM results. Our total OEM business declined 2% this quarter, outperforming the overall PC market which was weaker than we expected. OEM non-Pro revenue increased 15%, driven primarily by a higher than expected mix of premium devices. OEM Pro revenue underperformed the commercial PC market, declining 11%, due to the higher inventory level in Q2, that I mentioned in my last earnings commentary.

    現在進入最後一個環節,更多個人計算。營收超出預期,達到 95 億美元,以固定匯率計算成長 1% 和 3%。首先,我們來看OEM廠商的測試結果。本季我們的 OEM 業務總量下降了 2%,優於整體 PC 市場,後者表現弱於我們的預期。OEM 非專業版營收成長 15%,主要得益於高階設備佔比高於預期。由於第二季庫存水準較高(我在上次的收益評論中提到過這一點),OEM Pro 收入表現遜於商用 PC 市場,下降了 11%。

  • Windows volume licensing grew 6% in constant currency, and IP licensing continued to decline, impacted by both a decrease in total unit volume, and a higher mix of lower royalty units. As expected, devices revenue decreased this quarter. Revenue declined 11% or 9% in constant currency, primarily due to phone, where revenue declined 46% in constant currency. Additionally, sell-through of our Lumia products was weak, and we exited the quarter with relatively high channel inventory. As Satya mentioned, momentum in our Surface business continued, as revenue increased 56% or 61% in constant currency, with strong commercial and consumer demand for our Surface lineup. Overall, device gross margin dollars grew, and gross margin percentage improved, primarily driven by a shift to our higher gross margin Surface portfolio.

    Windows 批量授權以固定匯率計算增加了 6%,而 IP 授權持續下降,這不僅受到總單位數量減少的影響,也受到低版稅單位比例增加的影響。如預期,本季設備收入有所下降。收入下降了 11%(以固定匯率計算下降了 9%),主要原因是電話業務收入以固定匯率計算下降了 46%。此外,我們的 Lumia 產品銷售情況疲軟,導致本季末通路庫存相對較高。正如薩蒂亞所提到的,我們的 Surface 業務勢頭持續強勁,收入增長了 56% 或按固定匯率計算增長了 61%,這得益於市場和消費者對我們 Surface 產品線的強勁需求。整體而言,設備毛利成長,毛利率提高,這主要得益於我們向毛利率更高的 Surface 產品組合的轉型。

  • Our search business remains strong this quarter, with growth driven by higher revenue per search, and higher search volume. We again had US PC share growth, and search continued to be profitable. In gaming, revenue grew 4% or 6% in constant currency, with continued progress in the monetization of our installed base. We saw higher revenue from Xbox Live, driven by both higher volumes of transactions, and higher revenue per transaction, as well as an increase in revenue from our gaming studios. As expected, Xbox hardware revenue declined, mainly driven by lower Xbox 360 consoles sold, and lower Xbox One pricing.

    本季我們的搜尋業務依然強勁,成長主要得益於每次搜尋收入的提高和搜尋量的增加。美國個人電腦市佔率再次成長,搜尋業務也持續獲利。在遊戲領域,營收以固定匯率計算成長了 4% 或 6%,我們在現有用戶群的貨幣化方面取得了持續進展。Xbox Live 的收入有所增長,這得益於交易量增加和單筆交易收入提高,以及我們遊戲工作室收入的增長。正如預期的那樣,Xbox 硬體收入下降,主要原因是 Xbox 360 遊戲機的銷量下降以及 Xbox One 的價格下降。

  • Segment gross margin increased 2% or 6% in constant currency, driven primarily by gross margin percentage improvements in devices and gaming. Operating expenses decreased 14%, primarily through our actions in phone, and the transition of our display business to AOL. As a result, segment operating income grew 57%.

    分部毛利率成長 2%(以固定匯率計算為 6%),主要得益於設備和遊戲業務毛利率的提高。營運費用減少了 14%,主要得益於我們在電話業務方面的舉措,以及將我們的顯示業務轉移到 AOL。因此,該部門的營業收入成長了 57%。

  • Now back to our overall Company results. As planned, we accelerated our data center and cloud services investments to meet growing global demand. This quarter, we invested $2.3 billion in total capital expenditures, including an increase of 65% year-over-year primarily for data centers and servers. Other income was negative $247 million, driven by interest expense and net losses on derivatives, partially offset by dividends, interest income, and net recognized gains on investments.

    現在回到公司整體業績。按計劃,我們加快了對資料中心和雲端服務的投資,以滿足不斷增長的全球需求。本季度,我們在資本支出方面投入了 23 億美元,其中年增 65%,主要用於資料中心和伺服器。其他收入為負 2.47 億美元,主要原因是利息支出和衍生性商品淨虧損,部分被股息、利息收入和投資淨確認收益所抵銷。

  • Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 24%, higher than we expected, which reflected the changing mix of revenue across geographies, as well as an accelerating shift in revenue from software licensing to cloud services. The rate for the quarter included a catch-up adjustment from Q1 and Q2, reflecting the new full-year -- the new expected full-year non-GAAP effective tax rate. This quarter, we returned $6.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

    我們的非GAAP有效稅率為24%,高於我們的預期,這反映了不同地區收入結構的變化,以及收入從軟體授權加速轉移到雲端服務的趨勢。該季度的稅率包含了對第一季和第二季的調整,反映了新的全年預期非GAAP有效稅率。本季度,我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 64 億美元。

  • Now let's move to the outlook. First on FX, consistent with our guidance last quarter, we still expect FX to negatively impact year-over-year growth in Q4 by 3 points. By segment, we expect 3 points of impact on productivity and business processes, 3 points in intelligent cloud, and 2 points in More Personal Computing.

    現在我們來看看前景。首先是外匯方面,與我們上個季度的預期一致,我們仍然預期外匯將在第四季對年增率產生3個百分點的負面影響。以細分市場來看,我們預期對生產力和業務流程的影響為 3 分,對智慧雲端的影響為 3 分,對更多個人運算的影響為 2 分。

  • Second, our commercial business. Our commercial business will be on pace for continued strong annuity growth, as both new and existing enterprise customers adopt and use our growing portfolio of cloud services. Even with projections of tightening global IT spend and currency headwinds, we expect commercial unearned revenue to be $24.3 billion to $24.5 billion, in line with historic seasonality. We remain on track toward our $20 billion commercial cloud revenue run rate goal, as we grow revenue, drive consumption, and focus on gross margin improvement in Office 365, Azure and Dynamics online. Finally, we will continue our investment in data centers and capital equipment to address customer demand for our cloud services.

    其次,我們的商業業務。隨著新舊企業客戶採用和使用我們不斷成長的雲端服務組合,我們的商業業務將繼續保持強勁的年金成長動能。即使考慮到全球 IT 支出收緊和匯率不利因素,我們預計商業未實現收入將達到 243 億美元至 245 億美元,與歷史季節性規律相符。我們正朝著 200 億美元的商業雲端收入年化目標穩步邁進,我們不斷增加收入,推動消費,並專注於提高 Office 365、Azure 和 Dynamics Online 的毛利率。最後,我們將繼續投資資料中心和資本設備,以滿足客戶對我們雲端服務的需求。

  • With that, let me share our view by segment. In productivity and business processes, we expect revenue to be $6.5 billion to $6.7 billion, with continued annuity shift to the cloud, offsetting the impact of a weaker PC market on our transactional business in our consumer and commercial segments. In intelligent cloud, we expect revenue between $6.5 billion to $6.7 billion, driven by annuity growth, offset by continued transactional weakness.

    接下來,我將按細分市場分享我們的觀點。在生產力和業務流程方面,我們預計營收將達到 65 億美元至 67 億美元,持續向雲端轉移,將抵消 PC 市場疲軟對我們消費者和商業領域交易業務的影響。在智慧雲端領域,我們預計營收將在 65 億至 67 億美元之間,主要由年金成長推動,但會被持續疲軟的交易業務所抵銷。

  • In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue between $8.7 billion and $9 billion. Here's a bit more detail on its individual components. In Windows, we expect our OEM Pro revenue to be largely in line with the commercial PC market. Our non-Pro revenue is expected to be above the consumer PC market, similar to what we saw in Q3, primarily due to the continued benefit from a strong mix of premium devices.

    在「更多個人計算」領域,我們預計收入將在 87 億美元至 90 億美元之間。以下是關於其各個組成部分的更多詳細資訊。在 Windows 領域,我們預期 OEM 專業版營收將與商用 PC 市場基本持平。我們的非專業版營收預計將高於消費級 PC 市場,與第三季的情況類似,這主要得益於高階設備組合的強勁成長。

  • In devices, we anticipate continued momentum and growth for Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book, particularly with business customers. For phone, we expect year-over-year revenue declines to steepen in Q4, as we work through our Lumia channel position. In search, we will continue to show healthy revenue growth, with full-year profitability. Finally in gaming, we expect to see continued healthy user engagement on our Xbox platform, and we look forward to E3, where we will announce new titles for the upcoming fiscal year.

    在裝置方面,我們預計 Surface Pro 4 和 Surface Book 將繼續保持成長勢頭,尤其是在企業客戶中。對於手機業務,我們預計第四季度將年減幅度加大,因為我們正在調整 Lumia 的通路佈局。在搜尋業務方面,我們將繼續保持健康的營收成長,並實現全年獲利。最後,在遊戲方面,我們預計 Xbox 平台的用戶參與度將繼續保持健康成長,我們期待在 E3 遊戲展上公佈下一財年的新遊戲作品。

  • We expect COGS to be $7.8 billion to $7.9 billion. We expect operating expenses between $8.2 billion and $8.3 billion. Our full-year guidance is now down to $31 billion to $31.1 billion, as we concentrate our investments in engineering and technical sales, to accelerate our cloud growth heading into the next fiscal year.

    我們預計銷售成本為78億美元至79億美元。我們預計營運支出將在 82 億美元至 83 億美元之間。由於我們將投資重點放在工程和技術銷售上,以加速我們在下一個財政年度的雲端業務成長,因此我們全年的業績預期已下調至 310 億美元至 311 億美元。

  • We expect other income and expenses to be negative $200 million in Q4. This includes the net cost of hedging and interest expense, offset by dividend and interest income. For tax, based on trends reflected in this quarter's full-year catch-up adjustment, we expect our Q4 effective tax rate to be 21% and 23%. We expect our full-year effective tax rate to be between 20% and 21%.

    我們預計第四季其他收入和支出將為負2億美元。這包括對沖淨成本和利息支出,但被股息和利息收入所抵消。就稅收而言,根據本季全年追趕調整所反映的趨勢,我們預計第四季度實際稅率為 21% 和 23%。我們預計全年實際稅率將在 20% 至 21% 之間。

  • Before I wrap up, I'd like to share a few directional comments on FY17. This year, we saw strong growth in our commercial cloud portfolio, and we grew our annuity penetration across our commercial business. We anticipate those trends will continue next fiscal year, driving our revenue growth, and impacting our gross margin percentages.

    在結束之前,我想就 2017 財政年度提出一些方向性意見。今年,我們的商業雲端產品組合實現了強勁成長,並且我們在商業業務中的年金滲透率也得到了提高。我們預計這些趨勢將在下一個財政年度繼續,推動我們的收入成長,並影響我們的毛利率百分比。

  • As we continue to unify and modernize our Windows installed base across our business customers, we will advance our progress in our post sale monetization scenarios, and execute on the Windows 10 enterprise deployment opportunity. Throughout FY16, our significant investment in engineering, sales and marketing has positioned us to support our customers' digital transformations, and to innovate in device form factors like Surface and HoloLens. In FY17, we expect to continue that investment, and reallocation process, therefore total operating expenses should be flat to up slightly. I look forward to sharing more on our FY17 plans in July. With that, Chris, let's go to Q&A.

    隨著我們不斷統一和現代化企業客戶的 Windows 安裝基礎,我們將推進售後獲利方案的進展,並抓住 Windows 10 企業部署的機會。2016 財年,我們在工程、銷售和行銷方面的大量投資使我們能夠支援客戶的數位轉型,並在 Surface 和 HoloLens 等設備外形方面進行創新。2017 財年,我們預計將繼續進行這項投資和重新分配流程,因此總營運費用應該會持平或略有上升。我期待在7月與大家分享更多關於我們2017財年計畫的資訊。那麼,克里斯,我們進入問答環節吧。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thanks, Amy. We will now move to Q&A. Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?

    謝謝你,艾米。接下來進入問答環節。操作員,請您再重複一次您的指示好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Brent Thill, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的布倫特·蒂爾。

  • Brent Thill - Analyst

    Brent Thill - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Amy, just on the Q4 guide. You're guiding below the Street on many of the individual line items on the top line. I'm just curious, is this more of the shift to the cloud, or is there some demand execution issues that you're seeing in the business?

    午安.艾米,就在第四季指南上。你在頂行的許多單一項目上都低於市價。我只是好奇,這更多是向雲端遷移的結果,還是您在業務中遇到了一些需求執行方面的問題?

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thanks, Brent. It's really, as we talked about, transactional weakness in productivity and business process. We're continuing to expect strong annuity growth. We're continuing to expect a strong mix to the cloud. We're continuing to expect ARPU increases, premium mix increases, and installed base growth. So really, in that segment, it's the PC weakness, and our traditional transactional office business that's impacting that segment.

    謝謝你,布倫特。正如我們之前討論的,這實際上是生產力和業務流程中的交易性弱點。我們預計年金業務將持續保持強勁成長。我們仍然預期雲端運算領域將保持強勁的成長動能。我們預計每位用戶平均收入 (ARPU) 將持續成長,高階產品組合比例將有所提高,且用戶基數也將持續擴大。所以實際上,在這個細分市場中,是個人電腦的疲軟以及我們傳統的交易型辦公業務對該細分市場造成了影響。

  • In intelligent cloud, it's a very similar dynamic. We're expecting renewal rates to remain strong as they've been. We're expecting the mix to Azure to continue to grow. We're expecting annuity double-digit revenue growth. And again, it's the transactional weakness that you're seeing overall, as well some -- the very specific geo weakness that we saw, which I called out earlier.

    在智慧雲中,情況也非常類似。我們預計續約率將保持強勁勢頭。我們預計 Azure 的使用比例將持續成長。我們預計年金業務收入將達到兩位數成長。再次強調,你看到的主要是交易方面的弱點,以及一些──我們之前提到的非常具體的地域性弱點。

  • And in More Personal Computing, the largest change in that segment is frankly the phone. So I would really focus on that in that segment. The rest of it, frankly, is quite good.

    而在個人電腦領域,該領域最大的變化坦白說就是手機。所以我會在那一部分重點關注這一點。坦白說,其餘部分都相當不錯。

  • Brent Thill - Analyst

    Brent Thill - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thanks, Brent. We'll take the next question now, please?

    謝謝你,布倫特。我們現在開始回答下一個問題,可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Winslow, Credit Suisse.

    Philip Winslow,瑞士信貸。

  • Philip Winslow - Analyst

    Philip Winslow - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on a great quarter. I just want to focus in on Office here. Obviously, you called out Office 365 commercial suite growing 57% year-over-year, so very consistent with what your last quarter was. And Satya, you mentioned the mix shift as well with the release of E5. Wonder if you can just provide some color there, sort of a I guess, a grade of where you are right now? And then, as you're contemplating guidance for Q4, and then thinking about 2017, how should we think -- or how are you guys thinking about that Office 365 transition there, sort of units and pricing?

    感謝您回答我的問題,也恭喜您本季業績優異。我只想專注於Office。顯然,您提到 Office 365 商業套件年增 57%,這與上一季的數據非常吻合。薩蒂亞,你也提到了 E5 發行後混音風格的轉變。不知道能否簡單描述一下,比如說,您目前所處的階段?那麼,在考慮第四季度業績指引以及 2017 年的展望時,我們該如何看待 Office 365 的過渡,以及相關的銷售和定價問題呢?

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • I can start, and then Amy, you can add. Overall, the thing that we are most focused on with Office 365 is how do we make sure that we have the Office 365 endpoints everywhere and good usage. And I talked about how the mobile endpoints has been growing, and the mobile usage has been growing. I also talked about the 70 million monthly active users of Office. So we feel very good about that, which is users, both in terms of coverage and usage.

    我可以先開始,然後艾米,你接著說。總的來說,我們最關注的 Office 365 問題是如何確保 Office 365 端點無處不在並且得到良好利用。我談到了行動終端的成長情況,以及行動裝置使用量的成長情況。我還談到了 Office 每月 7000 萬的活躍用戶。所以我們對使用者數量(包括覆蓋範圍和使用情況)感到非常滿意。

  • The next place where we're very focused on is really the new scenarios, and E5 is obviously a big element of it. I talked about it in some detail, the security value proposition. That is really showing a lot of good traction for us, but we're also seeing traction in analytics and voice. So we're in the very early innings of E5, but the value proposition and the TAM, or the total addressable market of those three scenarios is huge. And so, we remain very excited about it.

    接下來我們重點關注的是新的場景,而 E5 顯然是其中一個重要的組成部分。我詳細地談到了安全價值主張。這確實為我們帶來了很多好進展,而且我們在分析和語音領域也看到了進展。所以我們現在還處於 E5 的早期階段,但這三種方案的價值主張和 TAM(總潛在市場)都非常巨大。所以,我們對此仍然感到非常興奮。

  • The other thing that I'm also excited about, when it comes to Office 365, is for the first time we're opening up Office 365. Not just as an end-user, and a enterprise tool and a service, but as a developer platform. In its own right, we think of Office as perhaps one of the most strategic developer assets we have, and with the Microsoft Graph API, and what we see as activity around it. We think about the platform effects of that, as also being very key. So that's, at least at the macro level, how I look at it. And Amy, if you want to talk a little more about it ?

    關於 Office 365,我感到興奮的另一件事是,我們首次向公眾開放了 Office 365。不僅作為最終用戶和企業工具及服務,而且作為開發者平台。就其本身而言,我們認為 Office 或許是我們擁有的最具策略性的開發者資產之一,再加上 Microsoft Graph API 以及我們所看到的各種圍繞它的活動。我們認為平台效應也至關重要。所以,至少從宏觀層面來說,我是這麼看待這個問題的。艾米,你想再多談談這件事嗎?

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • And I think that the way that shows itself in our financial results is, you'd expect to continue to see the strong mix shift to the cloud. You'd expect to continue to see installed base growth, as even some of the items Satya talked about have more relevance, and continue to make us, the value prop higher, even in small business, which is where you've seen new user adds. I would continue to expect to see ARPU growth, as we see E5 have its impact through the year. And so, think about these same dynamics, Phil, for us, where we focus on new users, and ARPU increases, as we shift to Office 365, those are trends I'd expect to see, obviously as we look into 2017.

    我認為,從我們的財務表現來看,預計未來將繼續看到業務重心轉移到雲端。預計安裝基礎將繼續成長,因為即使是 Satya 談到的一些項目也更具相關性,並不斷提高我們的價值主張,即使在小型企業中也是如此,而這正是您看到新增用戶主要來自小型企業的地方。我預計 ARPU 將繼續成長,因為我們將看到 E5 在全年產生影響。所以,菲爾,想想這些相同的動態,對我們來說,當我們專注於新用戶,並且 ARPU 增加,隨著我們轉向 Office 365,這些顯然是我預期會在 2017 年看到的趨勢。

  • Philip Winslow - Analyst

    Philip Winslow - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, guys.

    偉大的。謝謝各位。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thanks, Phil. We will take the next question, please?

    謝謝你,菲爾。我們來回答下一個問題,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Mark Moerdler, Bernstein Research.

    謝謝。Mark Moerdler,伯恩斯坦研究公司。

  • Mark Moerdler - Analyst

    Mark Moerdler - Analyst

  • Sure. Thank you very much. So if you look at productivity and process and intelligent cloud, obviously we're having a margin decrease that's occurring, and a good chunk of that is cloud. How should we think about the standalone license business, in terms of the margins, separated from the cloud side of it?

    當然。非常感謝。因此,如果你觀察生產力、流程和智慧雲,很明顯,我們正在經歷利潤率下降,而其中很大一部分原因在於雲端。我們應該如何看待獨立授權業務的利潤率,才能將其與雲端業務區分開來?

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • The standalone margins on the licensing business have been pretty stable. Just because transactionally, we understand and continue to bring down the fixed cost base there, and any that's required. So I don't feel like you'd expect any material change in those, Mark.

    授權業務的獨立利潤率一直相當穩定。因為從交易角度來看,我們理解並將繼續降低那裡的固定成本基礎,以及任何必要的成本。所以我覺得你不會指望這些方面會有任何實質的變化,馬克。

  • Mark Moerdler - Analyst

    Mark Moerdler - Analyst

  • Okay. I appreciate. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Mark. We'll take the next question, please?

    謝謝你,馬克。下一個問題可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Heather Bellini, Goldman Sachs.

    謝謝。Heather Bellini,高盛集團。

  • Heather Bellini - Analyst

    Heather Bellini - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you so much. Satya, I wanted to see if you could share a little bit on Azure? Just how you're thinking about the competitive positioning, versus Amazon, where you think your strengths are, versus them? And also, as the business continues to ramp at such a fast pace, how do we think about the progression in gross margins? I mean, Amazon gives us operating margins. But I guess, I'm wondering, is there a reason you shouldn't be able to reach similar operating margins with Azure at a similar scale, if we went back and looked at the progression that Amazon's been disclosing?

    偉大的。太感謝了。Satya,我想請你簡單介紹一下Azure?您是如何考慮與亞馬遜的競爭定位的?您認為您的優勢在哪裡?此外,隨著業務持續快速成長,我們該如何看待毛利率的成長?我的意思是,亞馬遜為我們帶來了營運利潤。但我想知道,如果我們回顧亞馬遜揭露的發展歷程,是否有理由認為 Azure 在類似的規模下無法達到類似的營運利潤率?

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • Sure, Heather. Thanks for the question. First of all, when Amy and I think about both our CapEx, as well as our OpEx, both on the engineering side, as well as on our sales and marketing side, we think about this still at a Microsoft cloud level. Just because if you take something like enterprise mobility suite, that gives you an indication of how, for example, we attach to Office 365, essentially an infrastructure service that hasn't [SaaS-like] margins. Or even some of our application services in Azure that attach to office developer experiences. So we think about this part more holistically, and same thing with dynamics.

    當然可以,希瑟。謝謝你的提問。首先,當 Amy 和我考慮我們的資本支出和營運支出時,無論是在工程方面還是在銷售和行銷方面,我們仍然會從微軟雲端的角度來考慮。僅僅因為如果你以企業行動套件為例,就能看出我們是如何連接到 Office 365 的,而 Office 365 本質上是一種沒有 [SaaS 式] 利潤率的基礎架構服務。甚至是我們 Azure 中的一些與 Office 開發人員體驗相關的應用程式服務。因此,我們對這部分內容進行了更全面的思考,動力學部分也是如此。

  • But having said that, if -- to your specific question, of where our differentiation lies? The first one is hybrid. Most people think about hybrid where, they think about the cloud as the edge of their server. We obviously support that with all of our service. Every server product of ours has cloud enrollment rights, whether it be SQL, whether it be Windows server, and you'll see that increasingly, even in this next wave of servers.

    但話雖如此,如果──回到你提出的具體問題,也就是我們之間的差異究竟在哪裡?第一種是混合型的。大多數人想到混合雲時,都會把雲端視為伺服器的邊緣。當然,我們所有的服務都支持這一點。我們的每一款伺服器產品都具備雲端註冊權限,無論是 SQL 伺服器還是 Windows 伺服器,而且你會發現,即使在下一代伺服器中,這種情況也會越來越普遍。

  • But we also think of, in fact, our servers as the edge of our cloud. That I think is where the world is going to go to, where distributed computing will remain distributors. So Azure Stack is completely unique to Microsoft. No one else who is in the public cloud business at any scale has that kind of capability. So, I would say that's another point of differentiation.

    但實際上,我們也把我們的伺服器視為我們雲端的邊緣。我認為這就是世界的發展方向,分散式運算將繼續發揮分散式運算的作用。所以 Azure Stack 是微軟獨有的。其他任何規模的公有雲服務提供者都不具備這種能力。所以,我認為這是另一個區別點。

  • So to your point about margins, I feel that we actually will have software licenses with hybrid rights. That's a different margin structure. We will have [IAS] services, and you talked about the existence proof, at least from Amazon about what margins at scale can be achieved there. We have PaaS services in infrastructure like EMS that have SaaS-like rev margins. And then, of course, we have SaaS services in Office 365.

    關於您提到的利潤率問題,我認為我們最終會推出具有混合權利的軟體授權。那是不同的利潤率結構。我們將擁有 [IAS] 服務,您也談到了存在性證明,至少亞馬遜已經證明了大規模應用可以實現怎樣的利潤率。我們在 EMS 等基礎設施中提供 PaaS 服務,其收入利潤率與 SaaS 類似。當然,我們也有 Office 365 中的 SaaS 服務。

  • So I think the mix of our gross -- or rather that mix will define a long-term gross margin, and operating margin for our cloud services. But the mix will also shift each quarter, just because the mix is not a stable mix, we'll see growth in different in parts, at different times.

    所以我認為,我們毛利的組合——或者更確切地說,這種組合將決定我們雲端服務的長期毛利率和營業利潤率。但每個季度,這種結構也會發生變化,因為這種結構並不穩定,我們會看到不同部分在不同時間成長。

  • Heather Bellini - Analyst

    Heather Bellini - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Heather. We will go to the next one, please?

    謝謝你,希瑟。我們去下一個,可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Keith Weiss, Morgan Stanley.

    謝謝。基斯‧韋斯,摩根士丹利。

  • Keith Weiss - Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Analyst

  • Excellent. Thank you, guys, for taking my question. Amy, when you're talking about the transactional declines particularly (technical difficulty) and the server portion of that, can you help us understand how much of that is due to maybe more macro factors, weaker overall spending environment, and how much of that comes from perhaps demand being reallocated towards infrastructure-as-a-service offerings that you guys have in Azure? Is there something of a cannibalization taking place, within that transactional business today?

    出色的。謝謝各位回答我的問題。Amy,當你談到交易量下降(特別是技術困難)以及伺服器部分時,你能幫我們了解其中有多少是由於更宏觀的因素、整體消費環境疲軟造成的,又有多少是由於需求重新分配給了你們在 Azure 中提供的基礎設施即服務產品造成的嗎?如今的交易業務中是否存在某種程度的蠶食現象?

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Keith, that's good question. Let me go through a number of factors that really impact transactional business. First, you're right. There's clearly a macro impact, especially on the transactional business. Transactional businesses tend to be more impacted in emerging markets, where we have a higher percentage of new -- of non-annuity business as transactional business. Those have been the weakest markets in this macro environment, and specifically some of the geos we called out have more exposure in this place. And so, you're certainly seeing the macro impact in the intelligent cloud segment, in the server weaknesses there.

    基思,問得好。讓我來詳細介紹一下真正影響交易業務的幾個因素。首先,你說得對。這顯然會對宏觀經濟產生影響,尤其對交易業務而言更是如此。新興市場的交易型業務往往更容易受到影響,因為在這些市場中,非年金業務中交易型業務的比例較高。在當前的宏觀環境下,這些市場表現最為疲軟,特別是我們提到的某些地區,它們在這種環境下的風險敞口更大。因此,您肯定能在智慧雲端領域,以及伺服器的弱點中看到宏觀層面的影響。

  • And because frankly, we saw that macro weakness, you've even seen it, in terms of server shipments, right? If you look at server shipments, you'd say that's actually a macro statement. We didn't see it any one particular workload. It's weakness across workloads, which tends to make more sense, frankly, with a macro or a budget IT spend constraint.

    坦白說,我們已經看到了這種宏觀疲軟,你們甚至在伺服器出貨量方面也看到了,對吧?如果你看一下伺服器出貨量,你會發現這其實是一個宏觀的結論。我們沒有發現它出現在任何特定的工作量中。它的弱點體現在各種工作負載上,坦白說,這在宏觀層面或預算有限的 IT 支出限制下更容易理解。

  • And so, I actually think between those two items, it's the biggest impact that we've seen in the quarter. And I expect to see it again next quarter, given I don't think the macro or IT spend environment should change in any way between these two quarters. So I think less about it being cannibalistic, because so many of the scenarios in this time period, we've seen the growth we expected. We've seen it across our premium services, as well as core compute. I should also say most of the weakness we saw was in the standard workloads, which I think lends itself again to some of those pressures.

    因此,我認為這兩項因素中,這是我們本季看到的最大影響。鑑於我認為宏觀經濟或IT支出環境在這兩個季度之間不會發生任何變化,我預計下個季度還會出現這種情況。所以我覺得它不太像是在互相蠶食,因為在這個時期,很多情況下我們都看到了預期的成長。我們在高級服務以及核心計算領域都發現了這種情況。我還應該指出,我們看到的大部分弱點都出現在標準的工作負載上,我認為這又會加劇某些壓力。

  • We also saw and I would expect annuity shifts there, which is the final component. Our annuity numbers and renewal numbers were very good in intelligent cloud. And in fact, they came right where we expected, in terms of unearned balances. And so, for me I do tend to think it's a bit more on the macro pressure and budget impacts than it is, frankly, any other statement or execution.

    我們也看到,而且我預計年金也會發生變化,這是最後一個組成部分。我們在智慧雲端平台上的年金數據和續保數據都非常出色。事實上,就未賺取的餘額而言,他們的結果正如我們預期的那樣。因此,坦白說,我個人傾向於認為,這更多的是宏觀壓力和預算影響,而不是其他任何聲明或執行。

  • Keith Weiss - Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Analyst

  • Excellent. That's very helpful.

    出色的。這非常有幫助。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Keith. We'll take the next question, please?

    謝謝你,基斯。下一個問題可以嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Karl Keirstead, Deutsche Bank.

    謝謝。卡爾‧基爾斯蒂德,德意志銀行。

  • Karl Keirstead - Analyst

    Karl Keirstead - Analyst

  • Thanks. Amy, this one for you. I wouldn't mind asking about the gross margin guidance. If I take the midpoint of your revenue guidance, the midpoint of your COGS guidance, it looks like you're guiding to another roughly 200 basis point decline in gross margins in the June quarter, which is about what you did in March.

    謝謝。艾米,這首歌是給你的。我想問一下毛利率預期。如果我取你們營收預期和銷貨成本預期的中點,那麼你們預計 6 月份季度的毛利率將再下降約 200 個基點,這與 3 月份的情況大致相同。

  • So if we look out to FY17, I know you touched on it a little bit, but just to be clear, it feels like you're guiding to a further year-over-year decline in gross margins. But it sounds like that will be offset in part by a continued good OpEx control. So is that the right way to think about it? And is there any way that you could sort of bracket what the gross margin percentage decline might be in FY17? You probably don't want to give specific guidance, but maybe some high level color? Thanks.

    所以,展望 2017 財年,我知道您已經稍微提到過,但為了明確起見,感覺您是在預測毛利率將進一步同比下降。但聽起來,持續良好的營運支出控制將在一定程度上抵消這種情況。這種思考方式正確嗎?能否大致估算一下 2017 財年毛利率下降的百分比範圍?你可能不想給予具體指導,但或許可以提供一些大致的概括性資訊?謝謝。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Directional. Karl, thanks for the question. And you're right, in general, and let me spend a few seconds on that. You're right, we saw about a 200 basis point change this quarter. It's entirely due to the shift to the cloud, both in our productivity and business process segment, as well as the intelligent cloud segment. Those are the exact same drivers in the gross margin change that we guided to in Q4. And I would expect stability as we've seen it, in our More Personal Computing segment.

    定向的。卡爾,謝謝你的提問。總的來說,你的說法是對的,讓我花幾秒鐘解釋一下。沒錯,本季我們看到了大約 200 個基點的變化。這完全歸功於我們向雲端的轉型,無論是在生產力和業務流程領域,還是在智慧雲端領域。這些因素與我們在第四季預測的毛利率變化驅動因素完全一致。而且,正如我們在「更多個人計算」領域所看到的那樣,我預計它會保持穩定。

  • And so, as you think about 2017, with the continued acceleration of our cloud mix, and actually continued momentum in annuity, I would to see the same -- the same pressures continue to exist. And you're right, in that our strong operating expense focus, because really this is the quarter when you've been able to see actually in Q2 and Q3 now, us really pivoting that investment in OpEx to our intelligent cloud, and the opportunity we see there across engineering, sales and marketing. And you're right, we do expect to see, and continue to do that as we lead into 2017, within the overall envelope I discussed.

    因此,展望 2017 年,隨著我們雲端業務組合的持續加速發展,以及年金業務的持續成長勢頭,我認為同樣的壓力仍然存在。你說得對,我們之所以如此重視營運支出,是因為實際上,在第二季度和第三季度,我們已經將營運支出方面的投資轉向了智慧雲,並且我們看到了工程、銷售和行銷方面的機會。你說得對,我們確實希望看到這種情況發生,並且在邁向 2017 年的過程中,我們會繼續在之前討論的總體框架內這樣做。

  • Karl Keirstead - Analyst

    Karl Keirstead - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Amy.

    偉大的。謝謝你,艾米。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Carl. Next question, please?

    謝謝你,卡爾。下一個問題?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Walter Pritchard, Citi.

    謝謝。華特‧普里查德,花旗集團。

  • Walter Pritchard - Analyst

    Walter Pritchard - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks. Amy, my question just on guidance, and your posture on guidance, a two-part question. I think we've seen you give very conservative guidance say, for the first half of the year. And in Q3, you ended up, putting it all together, at the lower end of your guidance. And I'm wondering -- your posture, just generally around guidance, if it's changed at all, that you're factoring in things differently, and we should think about that range going forward? Should it be more like it's been in the past, where you've had very conservative assumptions, or more like what you just did here?

    您好,謝謝。艾米,我的問題是關於指導以及你對指導的態度,這個問題分為兩部分。我認為我們已經看到,您對今年上半年的業績給出了非常保守的期望。綜合所有因素,第三季你們的業績最終處於預期範圍的下限。我想知道——您在指導方面的態度,總體上是否有所改變,您是否在以不同的方式考慮問題,我們是否應該考慮這個範圍?應該像過去那樣採取非常保守的假設,還是應該像你剛才這樣做?

  • And then, the second part is, as you look forward maybe towards longer-term guidance, and the prospects of giving longer-term guidance, because I don't think I've seen an estimate spread on a company as large as this, in a long time, how are you thinking about possibly giving long-term guidance? What the factors that are influencing your comfort in doing that? Or is it more philosophical, and it's something you're just not going to do, that's not necessarily dependent on your view of the business?

    其次,展望未來,您可能會給出更長期的業績指引,因為我認為我已經很久沒有看到像這樣規模的公司給出如此大的預期差異了,您是如何考慮給出長期業績指引的呢?哪些因素會影響你做這件事的舒適度?或者,這更多的是一種哲學層面的問題,是你根本不會去做的事情,而這不一定取決於你對商業的看法?

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thanks, Walter. My philosophical position doesn't change much. I give the guidance that I expect for the quarter, and I do it on the earnings call to the best of my ability.

    謝謝你,沃特。我的哲學立場沒有太大改變。我會在財報電話會議上盡我所能地給出我對本季業績的預期指引。

  • What you've seen this quarter is in fact the biggest in-quarter delta for us all the time is the non-annuity performance, than in our -- all of our segments, that is transactional business, that is the most impacted in quarter, by budget changes or macro changes. And so, the inherent volatility that you are talking about really, is about changes in quarter that we see and the impact of that.

    本季我們所看到的,實際上是我們所有業務中季度內變化最大的部分——非年金業務的業績,而不是我們所有業務板塊(即交易業務)的業績。非年金業務受預算變化或宏觀經濟變化的影響最大。因此,你所說的固有波動性,實際上是指我們看到的季度變化及其影響。

  • So I don't think it's a philosophical shift. It's just where you see volatility in quarter has always been in the transactional side of our business. The guidance we gave in our annuity positions, in terms of renewals and where we saw them were exactly, frankly, what we expected, with the small exception of the geos that I called out. So I tend to think -- I'll talk a little bit about 2017, as I always do come July, give you all more of a shape to that. But I tend to think, I would like to focus on where the Company is going, which is cloud mix shift, annuity growth, and overall world view of bringing Windows and the ecosystem growth through MPC.

    所以我認為這並非哲學思想的轉變。你會發現,季度波動主要體現在我們業務的交易方面。坦白說,我們在年金持股方面給出的指導意見,關於續保以及我們看到續保的地點,完全符合我們的預期,只有我提到的地理位置略有不同。所以我想——我會像往常一樣在七月談談 2017 年,給大家一個更清晰的規劃。但我傾向於認為,我想專注於公司的發展方向,即雲端組合轉型、年金成長,以及透過 MPC 推動 Windows 和生態系統成長的整體世界觀。

  • Walter Pritchard - Analyst

    Walter Pritchard - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Walter. We'll take one more, please?

    謝謝你,沃特。我們再要一個,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Ross MacMillan, RBC Capital.

    謝謝。下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的羅斯·麥克米倫。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. Amy, I just wanted to go back on the intelligent cloud. We did see that deceleration in server product growth, but the comp was very tough. And as you commented, your annuity was up, and your deferred growth accelerated. That server product line has grown about 5% constant currency in the last 12 months.

    多謝。艾米,我只是想回到智慧雲平台。我們確實看到了伺服器產品成長放緩的趨勢,但競爭非常激烈。正如您所說,您的年金增加了,您的遞延成長也加速了。在過去 12 個月裡,該伺服器產品線以固定匯率計算成長了約 5%。

  • I guess the question is, is there any structural reason why, going back to Keith's question, why that would decelerate more ex macro? And then, another question I just had that's related to this. Can you just remind us, in the server product ex Azure line, and in the commercial office traditional non 365 line, how much is transactional in those two segments? Thank you.

    我想問的是,回到基斯的問題,是否有任何結構性原因,導致宏觀經濟進一步放緩?然後,我還有一個與此相關的問題。您能否提醒我們一下,在伺服器產品線(不包括 Azure)和商業辦公室傳統產品線(不包括 365)中,這兩個細分市場的交易量分別是多少?謝謝。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Sure. Ross, let me try to take this. The first question around, is there anything structural or different in that server product line? Really, it has been, and is that transactional component. You're right, we continue to see the annuity growth. We continue see the growth through Azure, and the offset to that has been the transactional business.

    當然。羅斯,讓我來試試。首先要問的是,該伺服器產品線在結構上是否有任何不同之處?實際上,它過去是、現在仍然是交易組件。你說得對,我們確實看到了年金的成長。我們持續看到 Azure 的成長,但交易業務卻抵銷了部分成長。

  • I'm not sure that I would say that there's any structural reason, other than -- that's changed my world view, other than maybe the budget and macro pressure tends to exert itself on that transactional business. But overall, continuing to see the renewals we've seen, continuing to see the cloud growth we've seen, I'm not sure I think of it as a fundamental trajectory change, outside of that component we discussed.

    我不確定除了預算和宏觀壓力往往會對交易業務產生影響之外,還有什麼結構性原因——這改變了我的世界觀。但總的來說,鑑於我們看到的續約情況,以及我們看到的雲端運算成長,除了我們討論過的那個因素之外,我不認為這是一個根本性的軌跡變化。

  • In terms of overall, rough orders of magnitude, the intelligent cloud segment has the least exposure to the transactional business. It's still less than 20%, but that 20%, right, lends itself in quarter to the volatility you see. The productivity and business process segment has a bit more transactional exposure, just because it has both the consumer and commercial office business, which is more attached on a transactional basis to PCs. So it's slightly higher, all up.

    從整體來看,從大致數量級來看,智慧雲領域與交易業務的關聯性最低。雖然還不到 20%,但這 20% 的波動性,恰恰導致了你看到的季度波動。生產力和業務流程部門的交易業務佔比略高,因為它既包括消費者業務,也包括商業辦公業務,而商業辦公業務與個人電腦的交易連結更為緊密。所以整體來說,略高一些。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thanks, Ross. We'll go to the next question, please.

    謝謝你,羅斯。我們進入下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Kash Rangan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    謝謝。Kash Rangan,美國銀行美林證券。

  • Kash Rangan - Analyst

    Kash Rangan - Analyst

  • Hi, a question for Amy. Amy, you've been able to grow your Op income on a constant currency basis nicely double-digits, as you've been investing in the cloud. As you look at the results this quarter, and the -- as you pointed out the Op margins in intelligent cloud and business process productivity that were impacted due to the shift to the cloud, do you think that as you look into next year that the cloud business is at scale, that it continues to grow and take share, relative to overall revenue?

    你好,我有個問題想問Amy。艾米,由於你投資了雲端運算,你的營運收入(以固定匯率計算)已經實現了兩位數的良好成長。回顧本季業績,正如您所指出的,由於向雲端遷移,智慧雲端和業務流程生產力的營運利潤率受到了影響。展望明年,您認為雲端業務是否已經達到規模,並將繼續成長,在總收入中佔據更大份額?

  • The transaction business, who knows, it could be a bit of a macro pressure. Do you think that we're at the point where we could continue to entertain a scenario, that Op income could still continues to grow nicely, as it has in the last three, four quarters? Or is there some other structural change, with respect to the margin of the cloud business, or maybe the transaction business drops off a lot more dramatically, that it may be hard to sustain this nice double-digit Op income, at a very high level without going into the details? Thank you.

    交易業務方面,誰知道呢,可能會帶來一些宏觀壓力。你認為我們現在是否可以繼續設想這樣一種情景:營業收入能夠像過去三、四個季度一樣繼續保持良好的成長?或者,雲端業務的利潤率是否有其他結構性變化,或者交易業務的下滑幅度是否更大,以至於在不深入探討細節的情況下,很難維持如此高的兩位數營業收入?謝謝。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Yes, at a very high level, Kash, let me talk about the opportunity. The opportunity for us, across what the cloud mix is possible for our commercial business, and this moment in time that I'm a believer in, of where companies are going to change their businesses to rely more deeply on technology than they ever have. I believe that our setup for that is the investments we've been making for the past couple years, as well as the investments we're going to make for the next couple. I mean that, both in the capital concept, but also in my operating expense line.

    是的,卡什,從很高的層面來說,讓我來談談這個機會。對我們來說,雲端組合為我們的商業業務帶來了機遇,我相信,在這個時代,企業將會改變其業務模式,比以往任何時候都更加依賴技術。我認為,我們實現這一目標的途徑是過去幾年我們一直在進行的投資,以及未來幾年我們將要進行的投資。我的意思是,無論是在資本概念方面,還是在我的營運費用方面。

  • We've managed to do that by continuing to pivot to what I believe are these very high ROI opportunities, and pivoting away from opportunities where we've had a chance to become more efficient, and where the returns are not going to be as high, or the structural growth, it isn't there. And so for me, at a -- to your point, at a high level, I think we can continue to drive revenue, especially annuity and cloud revenue. I think we can continue to improve gross margin percentages in the cloud, across all the core cloud services.

    我們之所以能夠做到這一點,是因為我們不斷轉向我認為投資回報率非常高的機會,並放棄那些我們有機會提高效率,但回報不會那麼高,或者沒有結構性成長的機會。所以對我來說,正如你所說,從宏觀層面來看,我認為我們可以繼續推動營收成長,特別是年金和雲端收入。我認為我們可以繼續提高雲端業務的毛利率,涵蓋所有核心雲端服務。

  • I think that we can grow profit dollars, and I think that we can do that, and the OpEx guidance I gave you from 2017, as we continue to pivot to that opportunity. So, I think this is one where my optimism, frankly, for the structure of the market in the segment you chose, and my optimism for our positioning within that market is reflected in that investment number that you have seen. And so, I would continue to expect to see us do it.

    我認為我們可以增加利潤,而且我認為我們可以做到這一點,正如我在 2017 年給你們的營運支出指導一樣,我們將繼續抓住這個機會。所以,坦白說,我認為我對你選擇的細分市場的結構以及我們在該市場中的定位的樂觀態度,都體現在你看到的投資數字中。因此,我仍然期待看到我們這樣做。

  • Kash Rangan - Analyst

    Kash Rangan - Analyst

  • It's good to see that you still expect profit to grow, because this seems like the new Microsoft, where you're balancing the need to invest strategically, but at the same time trying to grow profits in the near-term, versus the old Microsoft, where the investments were made, but with more of a longer term, quote/unquote, you never knew when the payoff was supposed -- was going to happen. So it's good to see you emphasize that you're still focused on profit growth, notwithstanding the mix of factors that you cannot forecast.

    很高興看到你們仍然期望利潤增長,因為這看起來像是新微軟,你們在戰略投資的必要性與近期利潤增長之間尋求平衡,這與舊微軟不同,舊微軟雖然也進行了投資,但更注重長期效益,你永遠不知道回報何時到來。很高興看到你強調,儘管存在一些無法預測的因素,你仍然專注於利潤成長。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thank you, Kash. We'll go to the next question, please?

    謝謝你,卡什。我們進入下一個問題,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Mark Murphy, JPMorgan.

    謝謝。馬克墨菲,摩根大通。

  • Mark Murphy - Analyst

    Mark Murphy - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Satya, regarding the announcement that you will release your SQL Server database on the Linux platform. I was wondering if you can walk us through your decision tree, just in terms of what you think the potential risks are, and what you think the potential rewards are of reaching for that level of openness, if you will. And just how impactful do you think that that product can be in enhancing Microsoft's share of the database market?

    非常感謝。Satya,關於您將在 Linux 平台上發布 SQL Server 資料庫的公告。我想請您為我們詳細介紹一下您的決策過程,就您認為達到這種開放程度的潛在風險和潛在回報而言。您認為該產品在提升微軟資料庫市場佔有率方面究竟能發揮多大作用?

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • Thanks for the question. So the decision logic was driven primarily by what I would say is the increased competitiveness of SQL Server. If you think about where SQL Server now, with this new release, SQL Server 2016, it's become a fantastic database for many, many of the workloads, everything from OLTP to data warehousing, to BI, to advanced analytics. For the Tier 1, this is a capability that's been multiple decades in the work, but here we are, with very competitive total cost of ownership, price competitiveness, but with a technology that's in many cases, as Gartner talks about, at the top of the charts, when it comes to all of these workloads.

    謝謝你的提問。因此,決策邏輯主要源自於我認為 SQL Server 日益增強的競爭力。想想 SQL Server 現在的發展狀況,隨著新版本 SQL Server 2016 的發布,它已經成為許多工作負載的出色資料庫,涵蓋了從 OLTP 到資料倉儲、BI 到進階分析等各種應用。對於一級供應商而言,這項能力已經發展了幾十年,但現在我們擁有了極具競爭力的總擁有成本和價格優勢,而且正如 Gartner 所說,這項技術在許多情況下都處於領先地位,能夠勝任所有這些工作負載。

  • So now that we find ourselves with that capability, we're saying, look, what's the way to think about market, all the markets that we can, in fact, take this product to. And the Linux operating system database market is not something that, which is mostly, primarily a Tier 1 segment, is something that we've never worked in. And so, therefore, we look at that as an expansion opportunity, so we take that. We already made the call that Azure for Linux is first-class. We already have 20-plus points of -- 20%-plus of VNs in Azure are Linux, and we'll all increasingly have Linux, be a big share of our of percentage of what is happening in Azure.

    既然我們現在擁有了這種能力,我們就在想,我們應該如何看待市場,我們實際上可以將這款產品推向哪些市場。Linux 作業系統資料庫市場主要是一級細分市場,我們並非從未涉足過這個市場。因此,我們將其視為擴張的機會,所以我們抓住了這個機會。我們已經認定 Azure for Linux 是一流的。我們已經有超過 20% 的 Azure 虛擬網路是 Linux,而且我們所有人都會越來越多地使用 Linux,這將在 Azure 中佔據很大的份額。

  • So for the first time now, we have the ability to go to an enterprise, and talk about their entire data estate across Windows and Linux. Now people don't really move between operating systems. Those choices have been made, but they, at the same time, now they have a choice around database. And so, we think that that's a very good incremental opportunity for us.

    所以現在,我們第一次能夠走進一家企業,與他們探討他們在 Windows 和 Linux 系統上的整個資料資產。現在人們很少更換作業系統了。這些選擇已經做出,但同時,他們現在在資料庫方面也有了選擇。因此,我們認為這對我們來說是一個非常好的增量機會。

  • Mark Murphy - Analyst

    Mark Murphy - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Thanks, Mark. We'll have time for one more question, operator.

    謝謝你,馬克。操作員,我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Kirk Materne, Evercore ISI.

    謝謝。Kirk Materne,Evercore ISI。

  • Kirk Materne - Analyst

    Kirk Materne - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, and thanks for squeezing me in. Satya, I wanted to talk a little bit just about the ISV ecosystem on top of Azure, and where you think that is today, and where you'd hope that potentially to be in 12 months, when we think about the opportunity around sort of platform-as-a-service, and building out more enterprise apps? I think you made some comments around some IoT applications that are now sitting on Azure.

    非常感謝,也謝謝你們擠出時間幫我。Satya,我想和你談談 Azure 上的 ISV 生態系統,你認為它目前處於什麼狀態,以及你希望它在 12 個月後發展到什麼程度,尤其是在我們考慮平台即服務 (PaaS) 的機遇以及構建更多企業應用程序的情況下?我認為你曾對一些目前部署在 Azure 上的物聯網應用程式發表過一些評論。

  • What is sort of a good -- what should we be looking for in terms of new partners? On, from a survey, ISV perspective, you've had companies like BlackBox who re-platformed? I'm wondering, do you expect that momentum to potentially accelerate, as we get further into the calendar year? Thanks.

    什麼樣的人才算是好的合作夥伴? ——就新合作夥伴而言,我們應該尋找什麼樣的合作夥伴?從獨立軟體開發商 (ISV) 的角度來看,你們有沒有遇過像 BlackBox 這樣進行平台重構的公司?我想知道,隨著日曆年深入,您是否預期這種勢頭可能會加速?謝謝。

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. I mean, I think the overall for me, across all of our product lines, whether it be Windows or whether it'd be Office 365 or Azure, developer momentum, ISV momentum is super important priority for us, both in terms of our developer evangelism, our product engineering teams, as well as everything that we will do to even create success for our partners, through our field sales organization is a top of mind priority. And this is something that Kevin Turner, myself, and Amy, and all of our leadership team is very focused on. So you will only increasingly see us deliver more design wins there.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,我認為對我而言,在我們所有的產品線中,無論是 Windows、Office 365 還是 Azure,開發者勢頭和獨立軟體開發商 (ISV) 勢頭都是我們極其重要的優先事項,這體現在我們的開發者推廣、產品工程團隊以及我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切工作中,而我們首要的現場銷售事項也是我們為合作夥伴創造成功所做的一切。而這正是凱文·特納、我、艾米以及我們整個領導團隊都非常關心的事情。因此,您將會看到我們在那裡贏得越來越多的設計項目。

  • In fact, I'm looking forward to our partner conference, to talk much more about what it is that we will be doing in the coming year, to drive more success for our partners, and in particular, ISVs. The thing that I'm seeing a lot of, is we've had traditional strength with SQL as well as dot-net. They are moving a significant number of them to the cloud, and in fact replatting, to be even multi-tenant cloud native.

    事實上,我非常期待我們的合作夥伴大會,屆時我們將更詳細地討論來年我們將開展哪些工作,以推動我們的合作夥伴,特別是獨立軟體開發商 (ISV) 取得更大的成功。我經常看到的是,我們在 SQL 和 .NET 方面一直擁有傳統優勢。他們正在將其中相當一部分遷移到雲端,實際上還在進行重新佈局,以實現多租戶雲端原生化。

  • At the same time, we're also seeing a lot of open source ISVs also join -- be part of the Azure marketplace. If you go up to the Azure marketplace, surely you will see that. So we are not only bringing people who have traditionally worked with us, helping them replat to a completely new model, but we're also bringing a lot of new ISVs into the fold as well. And that's pretty exciting to see.

    同時,我們也看到許多開源獨立軟體開發商 (ISV) 也加入進來,成為 Azure 市場的一部分。如果你造訪 Azure 應用程式商店,肯定會看到它。因此,我們不僅在幫助那些傳統上與我們合作的人轉型到全新的模式,而且還將許多新的獨立軟體開發商納入其中。看到這一幕真是令人興奮。

  • Kirk Materne - Analyst

    Kirk Materne - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks a lot.

    偉大的。多謝。

  • Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

    Chris Suh - General Manager of IR

  • Great. Thanks, Kirk. So that wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. We look forward to seeing many of you in the coming months at various investor conferences. For those unable to attend in person, these events will be webcast at the Microsoft Investor Relations website. Thanks for joining us today.

    偉大的。謝謝你,柯克。今天的財報電話會議問答環節到此結束。我們期待在接下來的幾個月裡,在各種投資人會議上見到各位。對於無法親臨現場的人士,這些活動將在微軟投資者關係網站上進行網路直播。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。

  • Satya Nadella - CEO

    Satya Nadella - CEO

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Amy Hood - CFO

    Amy Hood - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。