Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Mercury Systems Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to the company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Ruppert. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Mercury Systems 2022 財年第四季度電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。在這個時候，關於開場白和介紹，我想把電話轉給公司的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Ruppert。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Aslett. If you've not received a copy of the earnings press release we issued earlier this afternoon, you can find it on our website at mrcy.com. The slide presentation that Mark and I will be referring to is posted on the Investor Relations section of the website under Events and Presentations.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mark Aslett。如果您沒有收到我們今天下午早些時候發布的收益新聞稿的副本，您可以在我們的網站 mrcy.com 上找到它。馬克和我將提到的幻燈片演示發佈在網站的“投資者關係”部分的“活動和演示”下。

Please turn to Slide 2 in the presentation. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements, including information regarding Mercury's financial outlook, future plans, objectives, business prospects and anticipated financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to future risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results or performance to differ materially. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements on Slide 2, in the earnings press release and the risk factors included in Mercury's SEC filings.

請轉到演示文稿中的幻燈片 2。在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的演示文稿包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Mercury 的財務前景、未來計劃、目標、業務前景和預期財務業績的信息。這些前瞻性陳述受未來風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果或業績出現重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述都應與幻燈片 2 中的警示性陳述、收益新聞稿以及 Mercury 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含的風險因素一起考慮。

I'd also like to mention that in addition to reporting financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, during our call, we will also discuss several non-GAAP financial measures specifically, adjusted income, adjusted earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, organic revenue and acquired revenue. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP metrics is included as an appendix to today's slide presentation and in the earnings press release.

我還想提一下，除了根據公認會計原則或 GAAP 報告財務結果外，在我們的電話會議期間，我們還將專門討論幾種非 GAAP 財務指標，調整後的收入、調整後的每股收益、調整後的EBITDA、自由現金流、有機收入和收購收入。這些非公認會計原則指標的對賬作為今天幻燈片演示和收益新聞稿的附錄包含在內。

I'll now turn the call over to Mercury's President and CEO, Mark Aslett. Please turn to Slide 3.

我現在將把電話轉給 Mercury 的總裁兼首席執行官 Mark Aslett。請轉到幻燈片 3。

Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'll begin with the business update. Mike will review the financials and guidance, and then we'll open it up to your questions.

謝謝，邁克。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。我將從業務更新開始。邁克將審查財務和指導，然後我們將向您提出問題。

Before we begin, I'd like to recognize the entire Mercury team for a tremendous effort through the course of an exceptionally demanding year. As to your strong performance, Mercury delivered record bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter. That said, the quarter and the year were more challenging than we anticipated due to lingering pandemic impacts, the extended defense budget delay, continued supply chain disruption, labor market constraints and growing inflationary pressures.

在開始之前，我要感謝整個 Mercury 團隊在異常艱鉅的一年中付出的巨大努力。至於你們的強勁表現，Mercury 在第四季度實現了創紀錄的預訂量、收入和調整後的 EBITDA。也就是說，由於持續的大流行影響、延長的國防預算延遲、持續的供應鏈中斷、勞動力市場的限制和日益增長的通脹壓力，本季度和年度比我們預期的更具挑戰性。

Despite these charges, our bookings increased 27% year-over-year in Q4 to a record $332 million, leading to a 1.14 book-to-bill and record backlog exiting the year. We received a large Aegis FMS order that was delayed in Q1, which was larger than we had originally expected. We also received the funding associated with the F-35 TR3 Lot 16 as anticipated, among others. Our largest bookings programs in the quarter were Aegis, F-18, F-35, PGK and the SDA tranche trucking layer. Term revenue was up 16% year-over-year and 9% organically.

儘管有這些費用，我們的預訂量在第四季度同比增長 27%，達到創紀錄的 3.32 億美元，導致今年的訂單出貨量為 1.14 和創紀錄的積壓。我們收到了一個大的 Aegis FMS 訂單，該訂單在第一季度被延遲，這比我們最初預期的要大。我們還收到了與 F-35 TR3 Lot 16 相關的資金，如預期的那樣。我們在本季度最大的預訂計劃是 Aegis、F-18、F-35、PGK 和 SDA 部分貨運層。定期收入同比增長 16%，有機增長 9%。

Our largest revenue programs in the quarter were Aegis, F-35, P-8, MH-60 and a classified radar program. We continue to see high levels of new business activity. Design wins in Q4 totaled more than $680 million in estimated lifetime value. For the year, we received 33 new design wins with an estimated lifetime value of more than $1.6 billion, up 9% from fiscal '21.

本季度我們最大的收入項目是宙斯盾、F-35、P-8、MH-60 和機密雷達項目。我們繼續看到高水平的新業務活動。第 4 季度的設計勝訴總額估計生命週期價值超過 6.8 億美元。這一年，我們獲得了 33 項新設計勝利，估計生命週期價值超過 16 億美元，比 21 財年增長 9%。

On the bottom line, we delivered adjusted EBITDA margins of nearly 25% in the fourth quarter and a record of $71.6 million in adjusted EBITDA. This is up 36% from the third quarter and up 21% from the record set in Q4 last year.

最重要的是，我們在第四季度實現了近 25% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 7160 萬美元。這比第三季度增長了 36%，比去年第四季度創下的記錄增長了 21%。

For the full year, we delivered record bookings, which grew 21% for positive book-to-bill and record backlog. Total revenue increased 7% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA declined 1%. Our largest revenue programs for the year were MH-60, F-35, the classified C2 program, P-8 and Aegis.

全年，我們實現了創紀錄的預訂量，訂單出貨量和積壓訂單量增長了 21%。總收入同比增長 7%，而調整後的 EBITDA 下降 1%。我們今年最大的收入項目是 MH-60、F-35、機密 C2 項目、P-8 和宙斯盾。

Turning to Slide 4. Notwithstanding these record results, we fell short of our guidance for Q4 and the year, primarily as the result of material and order delays that affected the timing of revenue. We continue to see in-quarter supply deep mix, long lead times for high-end semiconductors and delayed supply and deliveries. In the past, we've been better able to mitigate short-term revenue risk. That wasn't possible to the same extent this year, given the supply chain and labor market disruptions. The contracting delays also resulted in the higher accounts receivable and lower imported cash collections, which reduced free cash flow.

轉到幻燈片 4。儘管有這些創紀錄的結果，但我們未能達到我們對第四季度和當年的指導，主要是由於材料和訂單延遲影響了收入的時間安排。我們繼續看到季度供應深度組合、高端半導體的交貨時間長以及供應和交付延遲。過去，我們能夠更好地降低短期收入風險。鑑於供應鍊和勞動力市場的中斷，今年不可能達到同樣的程度。合同延遲還導致應收賬款增加和進口現金收款減少，從而減少了自由現金流。

Inflationary pressures, in large part related to semiconductors, became more of a challenge as fiscal '22 progressed. Semiconductors equate to 38% of our external supply spend, and we're seeing double-digit price increases. We expect to see greater impacts from material inflation and, to a lesser extent, labor inflation in fiscal '23. Given the short-cycle nature of our business, however, we believe these impacts will begin to normalize over time as our future business is priced at market rates.

隨著 22 財年的進展，在很大程度上與半導體有關的通脹壓力變得更具挑戰性。半導體占我們外部供應支出的 38%，我們看到兩位數的價格上漲。我們預計，在 23 財年，物質通脹和勞動力通脹會在較小程度上產生更大的影響。然而，鑑於我們業務的短週期性質，我們相信隨著我們未來的業務以市場價格定價，這些影響將隨著時間的推移開始正常化。

Clearly, these are unprecedented times. Mercury's sophisticated end-to-end processing platform powers many of the most critical A&D missions and represents about 70% of our business today. High-end processing requires high-end semiconductors, and this is where the global supply chain has been most disrupted. That said, it's also where Mercury likely has the largest opportunity to grow over the next 5 years.

顯然，這是前所未有的時代。 Mercury 複雜的端到端處理平台為許多最關鍵的 A&D 任務提供動力，並代表了我們當今約 70% 的業務。高端加工需要高端半導體，而這正是全球供應鏈中斷最嚴重的地方。也就是說，這也是 Mercury 在未來 5 年內可能擁有最大增長機會的地方。

Fortunately, the issues we're experiencing are not demand related. They're supply and timing related, they're temporary and they're not unique to Mercury. We have a plan to focus on what we can control, and we're very optimistic about the future given our positioning. The demand environment is strong and appears to be getting stronger. Although the defense industry is dealing with short-term headwinds, we expect to see a shift to tailwinds as defense spending grows and the supply chain conditions improve. We believe that we're well positioned to deliver results more in line with our target model in fiscal '23.

幸運的是，我們遇到的問題與需求無關。它們與供應和時間相關，它們是暫時的，它們不是水星獨有的。我們有一個計劃專注於我們可以控制的事情，鑑於我們的定位，我們對未來非常樂觀。需求環境強勁，而且似乎越來越強勁。儘管國防工業正在應對短期逆風，但隨著國防開支的增長和供應鏈狀況的改善，我們預計會轉向順風。我們相信，我們有能力在 23 財年提供更符合我們目標模型的結果。

Looking ahead over the next 5 years, our plan remains intact. We believe Mercury can and will continue to grow at high single digit to low double-digit rates organically as the short-term challenges diminish. The war in Ukraine, the most challenging global threat environment since the Cold War, will likely result in a sea change in defense spending domestically and internationally. Our advisers estimate that U.S. growth, combined with increases in NATO defense spending to 2% of GDP, could drive up to $1.5 trillion of additional spending over the next decade.

展望未來 5 年，我們的計劃保持不變。我們相信隨著短期挑戰的減少，水星能夠並且將繼續以高個位數到低兩位數的有機增長率增長。烏克蘭戰爭是冷戰以來最具挑戰性的全球威脅環境，可能會導致國內和國際國防開支發生翻天覆地的變化。我們的顧問估計，美國的經濟增長，加上北約國防開支增加到 GDP 的 2%，可能會在未來十年推動高達 1.5 萬億美元的額外開支。

This should lead to higher bookings for Mercury in the electronic systems associated with missiles and ammunitions, air and missile defense systems, unmanned systems, fixed-wing and rotorcraft, ground vehicles and electronic warfare. These set new trends benefiting Mercury remains favorable in our view. The demand environment is improving, as demonstrated by our strong bookings and design wins growth in fiscal '22. We believe that a greater percentage of the value associated with future defense platforms will be driven by Electronic Systems content when Mercury participates.

這將導致水星在與導彈和彈藥、防空和導彈防禦系統、無人系統、固定翼和旋翼飛機、地面車輛和電子戰相關的電子系統中的預訂量增加。我們認為，這些有利於水星的新趨勢仍然是有利的。需求環境正在改善，正如我們在 22 財年強勁的預訂和設計贏得增長所證明的那樣。我們相信，當 Mercury 參與時，與未來防禦平台相關的更大比例的價值將由電子系統內容驅動。

Our addressable market continues to increase, driven in large part by our strategic move into Mission Systems and potential to deliver innovative processing solutions at chip scale. Our model sitting at the intersection of high tech in defense positions us well. As a result, we expect our business to continue growing faster organically than overall defense spending over time. In addition to organic growth, our 5-year plan includes continued margin expansion, driven by our impact initiatives.

我們的目標市場持續增長，這在很大程度上是由於我們戰略性地進入 Mission Systems 以及提供芯片級創新處理解決方案的潛力。我們的模型位於國防高科技的交匯處，使我們處於有利位置。因此，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們的業務將繼續以比整體國防支出更快的速度有機增長。除了有機增長外，我們的 5 年計劃還包括由我們的影響計劃推動的持續利潤率擴張。

Turning to Slide 5 and our expectations for fiscal '23. The defense budget outlook is improving, and we expect to deliver another year of double-digit bookings growth and a positive book-to-bill. Despite the potential for an extended CR due to the midterm elections, the DoD top line budget submitted for FY '23 is up from FY '22. There also appears to be strong bipartisan support to increase defense spending. Labor market conditions have improved somewhat, and the primary health effects of COVID continue to subside. However, the second order COVID supply chain effects will likely continue in fiscal '23 and possibly beyond. We also expect to see greater impacts from material and labor inflation for the year.

轉向幻燈片 5 和我們對 23 財年的期望。國防預算前景正在改善，我們預計將再次實現兩位數的預訂增長和積極的訂單出貨量。儘管由於中期選舉可能會延長 CR，但為 23 財年提交的國防部頂線預算高於 22 財年。兩黨似乎也強烈支持增加國防開支。勞動力市場狀況有所改善，COVID 對主要健康的影響繼續減弱。但是，二階 COVID 供應鏈效應可能會在 23 財年甚至更久之後繼續。我們還預計今年材料和勞動力通脹將產生更大的影響。

As I said, we believe that we're well positioned to deliver results more in line with our target model in fiscal '23. We began the year with a record $1 billion in backlog and much improved forward revenue coverage versus fiscal '22. We expect double-digit growth in bookings for the year, and improved bookings linearity leading to a high backlog, better visibility and reduced risk as the year progresses. We also expect a positive book-to-bill for the year.

正如我所說，我們相信我們有能力在 23 財年提供更符合我們目標模型的結果。今年年初，我們積壓了創紀錄的 10 億美元，與 22 財年相比，遠期收入覆蓋率大大提高。我們預計今年的預訂量將實現兩位數增長，並且隨著時間的推移，預訂線性度的改善會導致高積壓、更好的可見性和降低的風險。我們還預計今年的賬面出貨量將保持積極。

At the midpoint of guidance, we're expecting approximately 3.5% year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA versus 6% and 7% increase at the high end. We expect growth together with improved operating leverage and our impact initiatives to partially offset material and labor inflation, resulting in similar margins to fiscal '22. In addition to record adjusted EBITDA, we expect to deliver improved free cash flow.

在指導的中點，我們預計收入和調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長約 3.5%，而高端則分別增長 6% 和 7%。我們預計增長以及運營槓桿的提高以及我們的影響計劃將部分抵消材料和勞動力通脹，從而產生與 22 財年相似的利潤率。除了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 外，我們預計將提供改善的自由現金流。

Our fiscal '22 bookings growth largely occurred in H2, and as I've said, we've seen longer semiconductor lead times. For high-end semiconductors, lead times now range from 36 to 99 weeks, 3 to 5x pre-pandemic norms. As a result, we expect the timing of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be back-end loaded in fiscal '23, with Q1 being the low watermark of the year. The increased backlog we expect as the year progresses should help improve operational execution in this challenging supply chain environment and ease the recent pressure on working capital. This should result in improved cash flow over time.

我們 22 財年的預訂量增長主要發生在下半年，正如我所說，我們看到了更長的半導體交貨時間。對於高端半導體，交貨時間現在從 36 到 99 週不等，是大流行前標準的 3 到 5 倍。因此，我們預計我們的收入和調整後 EBITDA 的時間安排將在 23 財年後端加載，第一季度是今年的低水位線。隨著時間的推移，我們預計積壓的增加將有助於在這個充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境中改善運營執行，並緩解近期營運資金的壓力。隨著時間的推移，這應該會改善現金流。

Another year of expected double-digit growth in bookings and another positive book-to-bill in fiscal '23 give us the confidence that we can and will return to organic growth back in line with our model in fiscal '24, provided supply chain and labor market conditions normalize. And again, looking ahead over the next 5 years, our plan remains intact.

在 23 財年，預計預訂量的另一年兩位數增長和另一個積極的賬面出貨量讓我們有信心，我們能夠並且將按照我們在 24 財年的模式恢復有機增長，前提是供應鍊和勞動力市場狀況正常化。同樣，展望未來 5 年，我們的計劃保持不變。

Turning to our impact program on Slide 6. We began the journey a little more than a year ago with the goal of amplifying the value we create as we scale the business over time. During fiscal '22, we simplified and streamlined our organizational structure and strengthened the leadership team. We also focused 1MPACT on analyzing, quantifying, developing initiatives to drive margin expansion. As we enter fiscal '23, we're taking advantage of this progress by pushing the execution of these initiatives deeper into the business. We're using the 1MPACT processes and tools that we've developed and matured to deliver on our margin expansion goals over time.

轉向幻燈片 6 上的影響計劃。一年多前，我們開始了這一旅程，目標是隨著時間的推移擴大業務規模，擴大我們創造的價值。在 '22 財年，我們簡化和精簡了組織結構並加強了領導團隊。我們還將 1MPACT 的重點放在分析、量化和開發推動利潤增長的舉措上。隨著我們進入 '23 財年，我們正在利用這一進展，將這些舉措的執行更深入地推進到業務中。我們正在使用我們已經開發和成熟的 1MPACT 流程和工具來隨著時間的推移實現我們的利潤擴張目標。

We expect 1MPACT to generate $30 million to $50 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA by fiscal '27. This is later than we originally anticipated, given the expected impact of inflation in the short term. Over the next 5 years, 1MPACT should drive significant margin expansion nonetheless. If fiscal '22 evolved and things became more challenging, we pivoted 1MPACT towards areas that could help mitigate risk and deliver the most immediate financial results. This focus will continue in fiscal '23.

我們預計 1MPACT 到 27 財年將產生 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元的增量調整後 EBITDA。鑑於通脹在短期內的預期影響，這比我們最初預期的要晚。儘管如此，在接下來的 5 年裡，1MPACT 應該會推動利潤率的顯著增長。如果 '22 財年發展，事情變得更具挑戰性，我們將 1MPACT 轉向可以幫助降低風險並提供最直接財務結果的領域。這一重點將在 '23 財年繼續。

Through 1MPACT, we're seeking to derisk the timing and availability of materials in our supply chain and to better manage inventory. We're implementing processes and tools to make better and more timely pricing decisions. We're also prioritizing our human capital resources to the greatest effect. To counteract the inflationary pressures, we're updating our commercial price list and proactively negotiating existing contracts where possible. On new contracts, we're introducing more favorable inflation related terms and milestones to drive improved cash conversion.

通過 1MPACT，我們正在尋求降低供應鏈中材料的時間和可用性，並更好地管理庫存。我們正在實施流程和工具，以做出更好、更及時的定價決策。我們還優先考慮我們的人力資本資源，以發揮最大的作用。為了應對通脹壓力，我們正在更新我們的商業價目表，並在可能的情況下積極協商現有合同。在新合同中，我們引入了更有利的與通脹相關的條款和里程碑，以推動改善現金轉換。

Another 1MPACT initiative for fiscal '23 is R&D investment efficiency and returns, following the progress in fiscal '22. In addition, 1MPACT was aimed at optimizing our balance sheet by improving our working capital and asset efficiency. Like many others in the industry, as a result of the environment, our unbilled receivables balances grow. We're using 1MPACT to focus on and improve the timeliness of our receivables cash conversion. Although we've made some progress, we have more work ahead to achieve our long-term cash flow objectives.

繼 22 財年的進展之後，23 財年的另一項 1MPACT 計劃是研發投資效率和回報。此外，1MPACT 旨在通過提高我們的營運資金和資產效率來優化我們的資產負債表。與業內許多其他公司一樣，由於環境原因，我們的未開票應收賬款餘額有所增長。我們正在使用 1MPACT 來關注和提高我們的應收賬款現金轉換的及時性。儘管我們已經取得了一些進展，但我們還有更多工作要做，以實現我們的長期現金流目標。

Our digital transformation initiatives in engineering and operations will help improve our cost structure and performance over the long term as well. We're also continuing to consolidate and optimize our facilities footprint. As it relates to M&A, 1MPACT is about leveraging our proven ability to integrate and grow acquired businesses but with a greater scale going forward. The M&A environment continues to be active, and we remain focused on our existing M&A themes.

我們在工程和運營方面的數字化轉型計劃也將有助於長期改善我們的成本結構和績效。我們還將繼續鞏固和優化我們的設施足跡。由於與併購相關，1MPACT 旨在利用我們經過驗證的能力整合和發展收購的業務，但未來的規模會更大。併購環境繼續活躍，我們仍然專注於現有的併購主題。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Mike. Mike?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給邁克。麥克風？

Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, again, everyone. I'll discuss our Q4 and full year results and then focus on our Q1 and fiscal year guidance.

謝謝你，馬克，大家下午好。我將討論我們的第四季度和全年業績，然後關注我們的第一季度和財政年度指導。

Turning to Slide 7. In Q4, Mercury delivered all-time company records for bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We exited Q4 with record backlog of more than $1 billion. Our 12-month backlog was up 22% year-over-year, providing improved revenue visibility into the next 12 months. Revenue in Q4 was up 16%, and organic revenue up 9% year-over-year. During the quarter, we recognized the revenue that we expected from the large Aegis FMS sale, F-35 TR3 and other key programs that we discussed on last quarter's earnings call. We did, however, experience more supplier decommits and award delays on other programs, which had a greater than $25 million revenue impact on our Q4 results.

轉到幻燈片 7。在第四季度，Mercury 提供了公司的預訂、收入和調整後 EBITDA 的歷史記錄。我們以超過 10 億美元的創紀錄積壓退出了第四季度。我們 12 個月的積壓訂單同比增長 22%，提高了未來 12 個月的收入可見度。第四季度收入增長 16%，有機收入同比增長 9%。在本季度，我們確認了我們在上一季度財報電話會議上討論的大型 Aegis FMS 銷售、F-35 TR3 和其他關鍵項目的預期收入。然而，我們確實經歷了更多的供應商退役和其他計劃的獎勵延遲，這對我們的第四季度業績產生了超過 2500 萬美元的收入影響。

Acquired revenue in Q4 included Pentek, Avalex and Atlanta Micro. As a reminder, Physical Optics Corporation, which we acquired in Q2 of fiscal '21, is incorporated into organic revenue as of last quarter. Physical Optics continue to perform well, despite being impacted by contract delays, labor market and supply chain decommits, like the rest of the industry. In fiscal '22, Physical Optics had revenue in line with expectations and had a 1.27 book-to-bill. Overall, a strong performance.

第四季度獲得的收入包括 Pentek、Avalex 和 Atlanta Micro。提醒一下，我們在 21 財年第二季度收購的物理光學公司截至上個季度已納入有機收入。物理光學繼續表現良好，儘管受到合同延遲、勞動力市場和供應鏈中斷的影響，與行業其他部門一樣。在 22 財年，Physical Optics 的收入符合預期，訂單出貨比為 1.27。總體而言，表現強勁。

The acquisition, which was our largest in history, is a critical component of our open mission systems strategy. As planned, when we bought Physical Optics, we continued to transition the business from its historical small business innovation research work to subsystem development and production contracts. We're pleased with the acquisition, its growth and its alignment with our strategy.

此次收購是我們歷史上最大的一筆收購，是我們開放任務系統戰略的重要組成部分。按照計劃，當我們收購 Physical Optics 時，我們繼續將業務從其歷史上的小企業創新研究工作轉變為子系統開發和生產合同。我們對此次收購、其增長以及與我們戰略的一致性感到滿意。

Q4 gross margins were up slightly year-over-year. Growth in higher margin production and licensing revenue was partially offset by increased direct allocation of engineers to customer-funded programs as well as the impact of material inflation that we were not able to pass through to our customers. As a result of the direct allocation of engineers, our internal R&D was lower as a percentage of sales compared to Q4 last year.

第四季度毛利率同比略有上升。較高利潤的生產和許可收入的增長被增加直接分配給客戶資助項目的工程師以及我們無法傳遞給客戶的物質通脹的影響部分抵消。由於工程師的直接分配，我們的內部研發佔銷售額的百分比低於去年第四季度。

In Q4, we had record adjusted EBITDA, up 21% year-over-year. Compared to Q4 last year, our adjusted EBITDA margins increased 120 basis points to 24.7%, primarily as a result of improved operating leverage. Free cash flow for Q4 was an outflow, primarily as a result of working capital and onetime expenses, which I'll discuss further in a moment.

在第四季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 創下歷史新高，同比增長 21%。與去年第四季度相比，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率增加了 120 個基點至 24.7%，這主要是由於經營槓桿的改善。第四季度的自由現金流是流出的，主要是由於營運資金和一次性費用，我稍後會進一步討論。

Turning to our full year results on Slide 8. Fiscal '22 was a record year for bookings. Our book-to-bill was 1.08 compared to 0.95 in fiscal '21. This rebound drove backlog higher and increases our visibility heading into fiscal '23. Fiscal '22 revenue was up 7% in total and down 5% organically. Our organic revenue was impacted by the external market conditions, including supply chain disruption, labor market constraints and contracting delays. Despite these delays in fiscal years '21 and '22, none of our major programs have been canceled.

轉向我們在幻燈片 8 上的全年業績。'22 財年是預訂量創紀錄的一年。我們的訂單發貨比為 1.08，而 21 財年為 0.95。這種反彈推動了積壓的增加，並提高了我們進入 23 財年的知名度。 '22 財年的總收入增長了 7%，有機地下降了 5%。我們的有機收入受到外部市場條件的影響，包括供應鏈中斷、勞動力市場限制和合同延遲。儘管在 '21 和 '22 財政年度出現了這些延誤，但我們的主要項目都沒有被取消。

Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal '22 was down 1% year-over-year. Our adjusted EBITDA margins were 20.3% compared to 21.9% in fiscal '21, primarily driven by program mix and inflation. Free cash flow in fiscal '22 was an outflow, primarily as a result of an increase in working capital as well as onetime expenses.

'22 財年的調整後 EBITDA 同比下降 1%。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.3%，而 21 財年為 21.9%，主要受項目組合和通貨膨脹的推動。 '22 財年的自由現金流是流出的，主要是由於營運資金和一次性費用的增加。

Slide 9 presents Mercury's balance sheet for the last 5 quarters. We ended Q4 with cash and cash equivalents of $66 million and approximately $452 million of debt funded under our $1.1 billion revolving credit facility. Our balance sheet is strong, and we have significant financial flexibility to continue to invest in the business organically and through acquisitions.

幻燈片 9 展示了 Mercury 過去 5 個季度的資產負債表。在第四季度結束時，我們的現金和現金等價物為 6600 萬美元，在我們 11 億美元的循環信貸額度下，債務約為 4.52 億美元。我們的資產負債表很強勁，我們有很大的財務靈活性，可以繼續有機地和通過收購對業務進行投資。

Accounts receivables increased in fiscal '22. This was primarily a result of unbilled receivables, which increased approximately $61 million from Q3 fiscal '22 and $140 million compared to Q4 fiscal '21. This was primarily driven by the growing proportion of overtime or a percentage of completion revenue as we execute on our content expansion strategy.

應收賬款在 22 財年有所增加。這主要是未開票應收賬款的結果，與 22 財年第三季度相比，其增加了約 6100 萬美元，與 21 財年第四季度相比增加了 1.4 億美元。這主要是由於我們執行內容擴展策略時加班比例或完成收入百分比的增長。

In Q4, overtime revenue increased to approximately 60% of total revenue compared to 44% a year ago. In addition, unbilled receivables were impacted by supply chain disruptions, which continued to delay delivering milestones and cash collections in the quarter. We expect unbilled receivables as a percentage of overtime revenue to return to a pre-pandemic level of approximately 35% as supply chain conditions improve and legacy contracts roll off.

第四季度，加班收入佔總收入的比例從一年前的 44% 增加到約 60%。此外，未開票的應收賬款受到供應鏈中斷的影響，供應鏈中斷繼續延遲交付里程碑和本季度的現金收款。隨著供應鏈狀況的改善和遺留合同的取消，我們預計未開票的應收賬款佔加班收入的百分比將恢復到大流行前約 35% 的水平。

Inventory increased approximately $11 million in Q4 compared to Q3 and approximately $49 million from a year ago. This was primarily due to accelerated raw material purchases to support higher demand and mitigate supply chain risk in fiscal '23. It also reflect the decisions by our suppliers to end of life more key components, requiring us to invest in raw materials. We expect to see less of this dynamic in fiscal '23.

與第三季度相比，第四季度的庫存增加了約 1100 萬美元，比一年前增加了約 4900 萬美元。這主要是由於加速原材料採購以支持更高的需求並降低 23 財年的供應鏈風險。這也反映了我們的供應商決定終止更多關鍵部件的使用壽命，這要求我們投資原材料。我們預計在 23 財年這種動態會減少。

Turning to cash flow on Slide 10. Free cash flow for Q4 was an outflow of $28 million and $47 million for the year. Last quarter, we forecast an expected free cash outflow in Q4 driven by onetime payments as well as working capital billed due to the record revenue quarter. The Q4 outflow was further impacted by supplier delays, primarily within unbilled receivables. In addition, in Q4, we had approximately $7 million of onetime cash outflows associated with our impact initiatives, acquisition expenses and shareholder settlement costs.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的現金流。第四季度的自由現金流分別為 2800 萬美元和 4700 萬美元。上個季度，我們預測第四季度的預期自由現金流出是由一次性付款以及由於創紀錄的收入季度而開出的營運資金推動的。供應商延誤進一步影響了第四季度的資金流出，主要是未開票的應收賬款。此外，在第四季度，我們有大約 700 萬美元的一次性現金流出與我們的影響計劃、收購費用和股東結算成本相關。

When the supply chain normalizes, we expect our cash conversion cycle to normalize as well and cash conversion to return to our target levels, which we have set at 50% free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA. We currently expect free cash flow to improve in the second half of fiscal '23 as net income grows and working capital metrics improve.

當供應鏈正常化時，我們預計我們的現金轉換週期也會正常化，現金轉換將恢復到我們的目標水平，我們將自由現金流設定為調整後 EBITDA 的 50%。我們目前預計，隨著淨收入的增長和營運資本指標的改善，23 財年下半年的自由現金流將有所改善。

I'll now turn to our financial guidance, starting with the full fiscal year '23 on Slide 11. As of June fiscal year in this company, we are initiating guidance for the next 12 months in a very fluid environment. As such, our guidance incorporates to the extent we can, potential risks related to continued supply chain delays and material and labor inflation as well as the potential for another continuing resolution in a midterm election year. While these uncertainties do pose risks, they are timing-related and not related to demand, which is strong.

我現在將轉向我們的財務指導，從幻燈片 11 上的 23 財年的完整財年開始。截至該公司的 6 財年，我們將在非常不穩定的環境中啟動未來 12 個月的指導。因此，我們的指導盡可能納入與持續供應鏈延遲和材料和勞動力通脹相關的潛在風險，以及在中期選舉年再次解決問題的可能性。儘管這些不確定性確實會帶來風險，但它們與時間相關，與需求無關，而需求很強勁。

On a quarterly basis, our guidance is second half weighted as a result of the bookings profile and supply chain delays that we've discussed. We are entering fiscal '23 with strong backlog coverage given the record bookings in the second half of fiscal '22. We also have visibility into the key programs not currently in backlog that we believe will drive our revenue. During the year, we expect to receive bookings on programs such as F-16, F-18 Filthy Buzzard, SEWIP and others. We are designed in and have sole-sourced positions on these programs.

由於我們討論過的預訂情況和供應鏈延遲，我們的指導按季度加權。鑑於 22 財年下半年的創紀錄預訂量，我們正以強大的積壓覆蓋率進入 23 財年。我們還可以了解目前沒有積壓的關鍵計劃，我們認為這些計劃將推動我們的收入。在這一年中，我們預計將收到 F-16、F-18 骯髒禿鷹、SEWIP 等項目的預訂。我們在這些項目中設計並擁有獨家採購職位。

For fiscal '23, we're guiding revenue of $1 billion to $1.05 billion, representing 1% to 6% growth from fiscal '22. Organically, the high end of our revenue guidance represents a 4% increase year-over-year. Based on the midpoint of our revenue guidance, we have approximately 63% of our forecast revenue in backlog. This compares to approximately 52% entering fiscal '22. Over 90% of our fiscal '23 revenue guidance is either from backlog or from programs where we are designed in.

對於 23 財年，我們的指導收入為 10 億美元至 10.5 億美元，比 22 財年增長 1% 至 6%。有機地，我們收入指導的高端代表同比增長 4%。根據我們收入指導的中點，我們有大約 63% 的預測收入在積壓中。相比之下，進入 '22 財年的比例約為 52%。超過 90% 的 23 財年收入指導來自積壓或我們設計的項目。

We expect fiscal '23 revenue to be H2 weighted, primarily as a result of award timing and supply chain lead times. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to expand throughout the year as a result of program mix, 1MPACT initiatives and operating leverage. While we always tend to have years weighted towards the second half, this year, we expect that to be more pronounced as a result of the macroeconomic headwinds. As a result, we expect approximately 2/3 of our adjusted EBITDA in the second half.

我們預計 23 財年的收入將是 H2 加權的，主要是由於授予時間和供應鏈交貨時間。由於計劃組合、1MPACT 計劃和運營槓桿，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在全年擴大。雖然我們總是傾向於將年份放在下半年，但今年，由於宏觀經濟逆風，我們預計這種情況會更加明顯。因此，我們預計下半年調整後的 EBITDA 約為 2/3。

Unlike the last 2 years, we expect our bookings to be spread relatively evenly throughout the year with a strong book-to-bill in H1, providing significant backlog coverage going into H2. Based on our current outlook for bookings, we expect to have nearly 80% of our H2 revenue in backlog, driven by the key bookings I mentioned. This is above historical levels of backlog coverage entering the second half of the year, supporting the strong growth we expect in H2.

與過去 2 年不同的是，我們預計我們的預訂全年分佈相對均勻，上半年的訂單出貨量強勁，為下半年提供大量積壓覆蓋。根據我們目前的預訂前景，在我提到的關鍵預訂的推動下，我們預計 H2 收入的近 80% 將積壓。這高於進入今年下半年的積壓覆蓋率的歷史水平，支持了我們預期的下半年的強勁增長。

Our guidance range for adjusted EBITDA for fiscal '23 is $200 million to $215 million, approximately flat to up 7% from fiscal '22. At the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA margins are 20.2%. These margins are approximately flat year-over-year as the anticipated impacts of material and labor inflation are offset by 1MPACT initiatives related to procurement and pricing. We currently expect free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion of 30% to 40% in fiscal '23. This estimate assumes the current R&D capitalization tax law is delayed or repealed. We expect a free cash outflow in H1, primarily as a result of continued supply chain disruption, with free cash flow returning to target levels in H2 as working capital increases subside. For the year, we're expecting double-digit bookings growth in a book-to-bill above 1.

我們對 23 財年調整後 EBITDA 的指導範圍為 2 億美元至 2.15 億美元，與 22 財年相比大致持平至 7%。在中點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.2%。由於材料和勞動力通脹的預期影響被與採購和定價相關的 1MPACT 舉措所抵消，因此這些利潤率與去年同期基本持平。我們目前預計自由現金流將在 23 財年調整後的 EBITDA 轉換為 30% 至 40%。這一估計假設當前的研發資本化稅法被推遲或廢除。我們預計上半年將出現自由現金流流出，主要是由於供應鏈持續中斷，隨著營運資金增加消退，自由現金流將在下半年恢復到目標水平。對於這一年，我們預計訂單出貨量高於 1 的預訂量將實現兩位數增長。

I'll now turn to our first quarter guidance on Slide 12. Our current revenue guidance for Q1 is $215 million to $225 million. At the high end, this is flat from last year. We expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $27 million to $30 million. Margins are expected to be approximately 13% of revenue compared to 17% in Q1 last year. This is primarily a result of continued supply chain and labor inflation as well as program mix. We expect margins to expand as we move through the year as a result of program mix, operating leverage and 1MPACT initiatives offsetting inflation.

我現在將轉向我們對幻燈片 12 的第一季度指導。我們當前第一季度的收入指導為 2.15 億美元至 2.25 億美元。在高端，這與去年持平。我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 在 2700 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間。利潤率預計約為收入的 13%，而去年第一季度為 17%。這主要是持續供應鍊和勞動力通脹以及項目組合的結果。由於計劃組合、運營槓桿和 1MPACT 舉措抵消了通貨膨脹，我們預計隨著我們全年的發展，利潤率將會擴大。

We expect a free cash outflow in Q1 as a result of continued supply chain disruption as well as onetime cash outflows associated with 1MPACT and shareholder settlement costs. While we don't guide bookings, we are expecting strong bookings in Q1, as I said, with a book-to-bill above 1, resulting in record backlog at the end of the quarter. So while we expect a challenging environment to continue in the first half, we believe our backlog and expected bookings in H1 will position us well heading into H2 and into fiscal '24. Over the next 5 years, we expect strong top line growth as well as margin expansion consistent with our target model.

由於供應鏈持續中斷以及與 1MPACT 和股東結算成本相關的一次性現金流出，我們預計第一季度將出現自由現金流出。雖然我們不指導預訂，但正如我所說，我們預計第一季度的預訂量將超過 1，導致本季度末的訂單積壓創紀錄。因此，雖然我們預計上半年將繼續充滿挑戰的環境，但我們相信我們在上半年的積壓和預期預訂將使我們在進入下半年和 24 財年時處於有利地位。在未來 5 年，我們預計強勁的收入增長以及與我們的目標模型一致的利潤率擴張。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Mark.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Mike. Turning now to Slide 13. The timing challenges that we've experienced the past 2 years are likely to continue, at least through the end of fiscal '23, as we see it today. That said, the demand environment remains strong, and we believe that strategically, Mercury could not be better positioned.

謝謝，邁克。現在轉到幻燈片 13。正如我們今天所看到的，我們在過去 2 年經歷的時間挑戰可能會持續，至少到 23 財年末。話雖如此，需求環境依然強勁，我們認為從戰略上來說，Mercury 的定位再好不過了。

We're entering fiscal '23 with record backlog and strong new business momentum as expected. We believe this positions us to deliver another year of double-digit bookings growth and a positive book-to-bill, with revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time while maintaining strong margins. Our 5-year outlook remains intact. We expect increased defense spending through this period to positively impact the business. We're well positioned to continue benefiting from the effect of increased electronic systems content, supply chain delayering and reshoring and increased outsourcing at the subsystem level.

正如預期的那樣，我們正以創紀錄的積壓和強勁的新業務勢頭進入 23 財年。我們相信，這使我們能夠再實現一年兩位數的預訂增長和積極的訂單出貨量，收入首次超過 10 億美元，同時保持強勁的利潤率。我們的 5 年展望保持不變。我們預計在此期間增加的國防開支將對業務產生積極影響。我們有能力繼續受益於電子系統內容增加、供應鏈延遲和回流以及子系統級別外包增加的影響。

We believe the supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures that we're facing today are short term in nature. Mercury's fundamentals are strong, and with 1MPACT, should improve over time. Executing on our long-term strategy over the past decade, we've improved margins while growing the business organically, supplemented with disciplined M&A and full integration. As a result, we created significant value for our shareholders and expect to continue doing so. We've also added depth to the Board. Continuing in that vein, I'd like to welcome Mercury's newest Directors, Howard Lance and Bill Ballhaus, who were elected to the Board on June 24.

我們認為，我們今天面臨的供應鏈限制和通脹壓力本質上是短期的。 Mercury 的基本面很強勁，隨著 1MPACT 的出現，應該會隨著時間的推移而改善。在過去十年中執行我們的長期戰略，我們在有機地發展業務的同時提高了利潤率，並輔以規範的併購和全面整合。因此，我們為股東創造了巨大價值，並希望繼續這樣做。我們還增加了董事會的深度。繼續這一點，我要歡迎水星的最新董事霍華德·蘭斯和比爾·鮑爾豪斯，他們於 6 月 24 日當選為董事會成員。

In closing, thanks once again to the Mercury team for your outstanding work and contributions. With that, operator, please proceed with the Q&A.

最後，再次感謝 Mercury 團隊的出色工作和貢獻。有了這個，接線員，請繼續進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Guys, if we think about fourth quarter top line, fiscal '23 revenue guidance, can you talk maybe about quantifying what part of the headwind is labor related, what part is supply chain related? And then just maybe, are you seeing it across all of your hundreds of programs? Or are there a few key programs -- sizable programs that are being unusually impacted?

伙計們，如果我們考慮第四季度的收入，23 財年的收入指導，您能否談談量化逆風的哪一部分與勞動力相關，哪一部分與供應鏈相關？然後也許，您是否在所有數百個程序中都看到了它？還是有一些關鍵項目——受到異常影響的大型項目？

Sure. So why don't I kind of give the high level and then maybe, Mike, you can kind of fill in some of the details, Pete? So at a high level, we saw greater than $35 million impact on bookings. The 2 probably biggest impacts were around the F-18. And then we also saw that SEWIP kind of slipped out of the quarter into Q1. Revenue, I think as Mike said in his prepared remarks, it was really due to 2 things. It was largely due to some of the order delays where we were actually expecting the order and to be able to recognize some revenue. So it's a good example of that. The product was built. But then also, we absolutely saw some supply decommits. So we're expecting material that ended up not arriving as we'd anticipated. So Mike, I don't know if there's anything that you'd like to add there.

當然。那麼我為什麼不給出高水平，然後也許，邁克，你可以填寫一些細節，皮特？因此，在較高的水平上，我們看到對預訂的影響超過 3500 萬美元。兩個可能最大的影響是在 F-18 周圍。然後我們還看到 SEWIP 從本季度滑出到第一季度。收入，我認為正如邁克在他準備好的評論中所說，這實際上是由於兩件事。這主要是由於我們實際預期訂單的一些訂單延遲，並且能夠確認一些收入。所以這是一個很好的例子。該產品已建成。但同時，我們也絕對看到了一些供應減少。所以我們期待的材料最終沒有像我們預期的那樣到達。邁克，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的。

Yes. So Mark said a great -- just in terms of numbers, as we look at the impact on fiscal '22 associated with the award delays, we estimate that, that was about $22 million. And then the supplier decommits and extended lead times, about $20 million in terms of the revenue impact in fiscal '22.

是的。所以馬克說得很好——就數字而言，當我們看到與獎勵延遲相關的對 22 財年的影響時，我們估計這大約是 2200 萬美元。然後供應商取消承諾並延長交貨時間，就 22 財年的收入影響而言，約為 2000 萬美元。

Okay, and are you thinking kind of 50-50 also for fiscal '23?

好的，您是否也在考慮 23 財年的 50-50？

So in fiscal '23, we -- when we look at those 2 things, what you'll see is that we talked about in the prepared remarks, is that it's more about timing during the year. And so what we're seeing is that the award delays that we've had this year and the supplier decommits are leading to a lower H1 from a revenue perspective and a margin perspective because of the mix of business in a bigger H2. So we're really looking at it as a fiscal '22 impact right now.

因此，在 23 財年，我們 - 當我們查看這兩件事時，您會看到我們在準備好的評論中談到的，更多的是關於一年中的時間安排。因此，我們看到的是，我們今年的獎勵延遲和供應商的退出導致從收入和利潤率的角度來看，H1 較低，因為 H2 中的業務組合更大。因此，我們現在真的將其視為 22 財年的影響。

So Pete, I'd just like to add, though, I think it's an important point, right? So we clearly saw a pretty substantial ramp in bookings in the second half. We thought that was going to occur. We did get some impact, as I mentioned, just with some orders that didn't arrive. The good thing is that the actual demand environment and order flow remains pretty strong. We're actually expecting very strong growth in bookings in the first half, which should actually help improve the linearity as we head into fiscal year of '24.

所以Pete，我想補充一點，我認為這是很重要的一點，對吧？因此，我們清楚地看到下半年的預訂量大幅增加。我們認為這會發生。正如我所提到的，我們確實受到了一些影響，只是一些訂單沒有到達。好消息是實際需求環境和訂單流仍然相當強勁。實際上，我們預計上半年的預訂量會有非常強勁的增長，這實際上應該有助於在我們進入 24 財年時改善線性度。

So we fortunately, if you step back, we're kind of in a multiyear industry events here. And the linearity of bookings in both fiscal year '21 and fiscal year '22 hasn't helped us with respect to the timing of revenue and EBITDA. So we're trying to take that into account as we head into the new fiscal year, just given the challenges that the industry is experiencing. But overall, I think we're seeing some improvements around bookings, which we believe is going to help not only in H2, but also next year as well.

所以我們幸運的是，如果你退後一步，我們在這裡參加了多年的行業活動。 '21 財年和 '22 財年的預訂線性度並沒有幫助我們了解收入和 EBITDA 的時間安排。因此，我們正試圖在進入新財年時考慮到這一點，只是考慮到該行業正在經歷的挑戰。但總的來說，我認為我們在預訂方面看到了一些改進，我們相信這不僅會在下半年有所幫助，而且明年也會有所幫助。

Very unusual times. And if I could ask just one last one. We've had this CHIPS Act passed, but even separate from that, are you guys able to identify additional semiconductor capacity coming online in kind of the near term that could address the shortages that you've had or at least lessen the impact?

非常不尋常的時期。如果我能問最後一個。我們已經通過了這項 CHIPS 法案，但即使與此分開，你們是否能夠確定在短期內上線的額外半導體產能可以解決你們所面臨的短缺或至少減輕影響？

Yes. It's a great question, Peter. Yes, I think, as I said in my prepared remarks, the -- as one of our customers said on their earnings call, right? It's [come to mouth] right now. It's pretty challenging. For high-end semiconductors, the lead times of 36 to 99 weeks, to put that in perspective, that's 3 to 5x what we saw pre-pandemic. And that's just for the semiconductor -- for the high-end semiconductors that the increases in the lead times have gone up across mechanicals, components, interconnect, I mean, literally, it's across the entire supply chain.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，彼得。是的，我認為，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，正如我們的一位客戶在財報電話會議上所說的那樣，對吧？現在是[說出來]。這很有挑戰性。對於高端半導體，交貨時間為 36 到 99 週，從長遠來看，這是我們在大流行前看到的 3 到 5 倍。這只是半導體——對於高端半導體來說，機械、組件、互連的交貨時間增加了，我的意思是，從字面上看，它涉及整個供應鏈。

The CHIPS Act won't help in the short term, right? I think it's a strategically and critically important piece of legislation for the nation. But that's really about how do we actually bring back, reshore the chip manufacturing capability to make our supply chain more resilient. And it's very clear with what the industry is facing right now, that that's the right thing to do. So -- but it won't help us in the short term. So I think it's going to take some rollover in demand in the semiconductor space to really -- to loosen up the challenges around availability. I think we're already starting to see some of that in certain parts of the semiconductor market.

CHIPS 法案在短期內不會有幫助，對吧？我認為這對國家來說是一項具有戰略意義和至關重要的立法。但這實際上是關於我們如何真正帶回、重新支持芯片製造能力，以使我們的供應鏈更具彈性。很清楚該行業目前面臨的情況，這是正確的做法。所以 - 但它不會在短期內幫助我們。因此，我認為需要對半導體領域的需求進行一些調整才能真正緩解可用性方面的挑戰。我認為我們已經開始在半導體市場的某些部分看到其中的一些。

So memory is generally more available than what it has been in the past. You're seeing some freeing up of supply around lower-end semiconductors associated with consumer electronics. Unfortunately, that doesn't really help Mercury because we are producing very sophisticated processing subsystems, which is where we're still seeing the tightness in the very long lead times. So I think if the economy starts to slow down and as you start to see some demand soften, I do think you'll start to see some pickup in terms of availability.

因此，內存通常比過去更可用。您會看到與消費電子產品相關的低端半導體的供應有所釋放。不幸的是，這對 Mercury 並沒有真正的幫助，因為我們正在生產非常複雜的處理子系統，這就是我們在很長的交貨時間內仍然看到緊張的地方。因此，我認為如果經濟開始放緩並且隨著您開始看到一些需求疲軟，我確實認為您會開始看到可用性方面的一些回升。

What we've also seen in the past is that when there is a scarcity, a lot of companies over order because they're concerned about the ability to actually get access to the parts. And so we're hoping somewhat that as demand starts of slow, the effects of the limited supply could actually turn quite quickly. But as we see it today, we don't see that occurring and we just don't have the visibility piece.

我們過去還看到，當出現短缺時，許多公司會過度訂購，因為他們擔心實際獲得零件的能力。因此，我們希望隨著需求開始放緩，供應有限的影響實際上會很快轉變。但正如我們今天所看到的，我們沒有看到這種情況發生，我們只是沒有可見性。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Mike, just a clarifying comment first. Do you expect to be free cash flow positive this year? And then, Mark or Mike, who wants to make a comment, trying to understand just the dynamics a little bit that's going on with your unbilled receivables. You talk about 60% of kind of overtime revenue and getting back to 35%. What are some of the key things we need to see to begin to see that happen? Is it just availability of the supply chain? Maybe if you could just walk us through a little color, that would be helpful.

邁克，首先澄清一下。您預計今年的自由現金流為正數嗎？然後，想要發表評論的馬克或邁克試圖了解您的未開票應收賬款的動態。你談到加班收入的 60%，然後又回到 35%。我們需要看到哪些關鍵的事情才能開始看到這種情況發生？僅僅是供應鏈的可用性嗎？也許如果你能引導我們通過一點顏色，那會很有幫助。

Yes. Peter, let me start with your first question in terms of free cash flow. So coming into the year, we weren't facing the same number of supply chain issues that we're facing today or that we did face during the year. So if you look at fiscal '22, our free cash outflow was $48 million. Now we invest in the business. We had about $27 million of onetime costs really associated with impact and some of the org redesign that we did. And I mentioned some of the other onetime costs in my prepared remarks. But the biggest impact by far has been the supplier and contracting delays, which we estimate was probably about an $80 million impact on our cash flow during the year, in addition to those onetime costs that I just mentioned.

是的。彼得，讓我從你關於自由現金流的第一個問題開始。因此，進入這一年，我們面臨的供應鏈問題與我們今天面臨的或今年確實面臨的供應鏈問題不同。因此，如果您查看 22 財年，我們的自由現金流出量為 4800 萬美元。現在我們投資這項業務。我們有大約 2700 萬美元的一次性成本與影響和我們所做的一些組織重新設計相關。我在準備好的評論中提到了其他一些一次性費用。但到目前為止，最大的影響是供應商和合同延遲，我們估計除了我剛才提到的一次性成本之外，這可能對我們今年的現金流產生了大約 8000 萬美元的影響。

So coming into the year, we didn't expect that working capital increase that was really driven by the supply chain and the contracting delays that I mentioned. And that really shows up in unbilled. And to answer your second question in terms of unbilled and making sure that I clarify the percentages that we've talked about. So if you look at our overtime revenue, it has increased since fiscal '20 from 27% to 55% in fiscal '22, so this year. And the 60% that you mentioned was our Q4 overtime revenue or percentage of completion revenue. And that's related to our subsystem work. And that's a natural growth as we do more subsystems consistent with our customer base.

因此，進入這一年，我們沒想到真正由供應鍊和我提到的合同延遲推動的營運資金增加。這確實出現在未開票中。並以未計費的形式回答您的第二個問題，並確保我澄清了我們討論過的百分比。因此，如果您查看我們的加班收入，自 20 財年以來，它已從 22 財年的 27% 增加到 22 財年的 55%，所以今年。你提到的 60% 是我們第四季度的加班收入或完成收入的百分比。這與我們的子系統工作有關。這是一個自然的增長，因為我們做了更多與我們的客戶群一致的子系統。

When we look at the -- what's the right metric for unbilled, how do we size it and say what's the right amount of unbilled, because we're naturally going to have some. The way we look at that is the percentage of our overtime revenue. And so if you look back from fiscal '19 to fiscal '21, you'll see we averaged at around 35%. And in fiscal '22, that number went up to 43%. And that's what you're seeing, because of the supply chain delays, which delayed milestones, which delayed deliveries, and that's the number that as we look at normalization of our working capital, we're really going to drive down. And so that 43% that we ended the year with in '22, we think the good target is 35% over time. And we think that will unwind in fiscal -- a little bit in fiscal '23, more in the second half and then heading into fiscal '24.

當我們查看 - 什麼是未開票的正確指標時，我們如何確定它的大小並說出未開票的正確數量，因為我們自然會有一些。我們看待這一點的方式是我們加班收入的百分比。因此，如果您從 19 財年回顧到 21 財年，您會發現我們平均約為 35%。在 22 財年，這個數字上升到 43%。這就是你所看到的，因為供應鏈延遲，延遲了里程碑，延遲了交付，當我們看到我們的營運資金正常化時，這就是我們真的要降低的數字。因此，我們在 22 年結束時的 43%，我們認為隨著時間的推移，好的目標是 35%。我們認為這將在財政年度放鬆——在 23 財政年度會有所緩解，下半年會更多，然後進入 24 財政年度。

Mike, you just sort of touched on, the second part of the question was around the -- do we expect positive free cash flow in '23?

邁克，你剛剛提到了，問題的第二部分是圍繞 - 我們是否預計 23 年的自由現金流為正？

Yes. I'm sorry about that. Yes, we do -- we talked about 30% to 40% free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion for fiscal '23. And -- that's going to be second half weighted. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are looking at an outflow in Q1, unless we were currently forecasting. But for the year, we are looking for positive free cash flow. And then that normalize even further as we go into fiscal '24.

是的。對此我很抱歉。是的，我們這樣做了——我們談到了 23 財年調整後的 EBITDA 轉換的 30% 到 40% 的自由現金流。而且 - 這將是下半年的加權。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，除非我們目前正在預測，否則我們正在關注第一季度的資金外流。但今年，我們正在尋找正的自由現金流。然後，隨著我們進入 24 財年，這種情況會進一步正常化。

So it's -- just to clarify, so if we get into like fiscal '24 and say the supply chain availability is much better, then it doesn't necessarily mean the top line story, but you could actually start seeing a lot of these unbilled receivables unwind, is that the right way to think about it?

所以它 - 只是為了澄清一下，所以如果我們進入像 '24 財政年度並說供應鏈可用性要好得多，那麼這並不一定意味著頭條新聞，但你實際上可以開始看到很多這些未開票應收賬款解除，這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Yes. And it's also inventory. So if you look at our -- in general and step all the way back, we look at working capital as a percentage of sales, you'll see that before fiscal '21, and even in fiscal '21, we're around 40%. Prior to that, we were around 35%. And this year on an LTM basis, we've jumped up closer to 56%. And that's the combination of that higher unbilled as a percentage of overtime revenue, plus inventory. Because as we've talked about, we invested in inventory to defray some of the risk associated with the supply chain. And we've seen inventory increase as we've seen contracting delays. So yes, you're absolutely right. The right way to think about it is as we get through fiscal '23 and then into fiscal '24, you should see working capital as a percentage of sales come down.

是的。它也是庫存。因此，如果您看一下我們的-總的來說，然後再退一步，我們將營運資本視為銷售額的百分比，您會發現在 21 財年之前，甚至在 21 財年，我們大約是 40 %。在此之前，我們大約是 35%。今年在 LTM 的基礎上，我們躍升了接近 56%。這就是未開票占加班收入的百分比較高以及庫存的組合。因為正如我們已經談到的，我們投資於庫存以應對與供應鏈相關的一些風險。我們看到庫存增加，因為我們看到了合同延遲。所以，是的，你是絕對正確的。正確的思考方式是，當我們度過 '23 財年，然後進入 '24 財年，您應該看到營運資金佔銷售額的百分比下降。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Guys, I just wanted to ask about the expected EBITDA in the first quarter and that kind of 13-ish percent margin, which even last year, which you would have considered kind of a tough quarter for profitability, was 17% to 18% margin. I mean it would seem like that's implying something like a low 30s type of gross margin in the first quarter. Is that because of inflation? Is that because of mix? And to the extent that, that is the case, how does that improve through the year? And does that imply some kind of exit rate that's higher than usual? Or does it imply a quick step up in the second quarter?

伙計們，我只是想問一下第一季度的預期 EBITDA 以及那種 13% 的利潤率，即使在去年，你會認為這是一個艱難的盈利季度，利潤率是 17% 到 18% .我的意思是，這似乎意味著第一季度毛利率處於 30 多歲的低水平。是因為通貨膨脹嗎？是因為混嗎？就這種情況而言，這一年的情況如何改善？這是否意味著某種比平時更高的退出率？或者這是否意味著第二季度的快速提升？

Yes. So you're right. When we look at -- when we look at Q1, revenue, $215 million to $225 million is the guidance range. We don't guide, as you know, we don't guide gross margin. But we were 39% in Q1 of '22. We're going to be -- mix is going to shift, Seth. So don't necessarily hold me to this, but we're going to be about 300 basis points lower in Q1 this year than Q1 last year. So around 36% is what we currently expect. So your number is right.

是的。所以你是對的。當我們看 - 當我們看第一季度時，收入 2.15 億美元到 2.25 億美元是指導範圍。如您所知，我們不指導毛利率。但我們在 22 年第一季度是 39%。我們將是——混合將發生變化，Seth。所以不一定要堅持這一點，但今年第一季度我們將比去年第一季度低約 300 個基點。所以大約 36% 是我們目前的預期。所以你的號碼是對的。

And so what's driving that? It is 2 things. First is the result of production slips. So revenues lower and gross margins are down because of the engineering work that we're looking at the end of the first half of the year is lower margin. And the reason for that is that the production work where we're waiting for supplies has gotten pushed to the second half. So that's one part of it.

那麼是什麼驅動了它呢？這是兩件事。首先是生產失誤的結果。因此，由於我們在今年上半年末看到的工程工作利潤率較低，因此收入下降和毛利率下降。原因是我們等待供應的生產工作被推到了下半年。這就是其中的一部分。

And the second part is inflation. We've tried to take into account in our guidance, some of the inflation that we won't be able to pass through. We have at least 100 basis points impact from inflation in those gross margins, but we're trying to manage that through 1MPACT and other initiatives. So yes, so gross margin is down about 300 basis points. And then EBITDA is down 400 basis points because we were at 13% at the midpoint of our Q1 guidance now. We were 17% in Q1 '22. About 300 basis points is from the gross margin that I just mentioned. And the other 100 bps is associated with the negative operating leverage. And labor inflation is the other piece of it. So that is what's driving Q1.

第二部分是通貨膨脹。我們試圖在我們的指導中考慮到一些我們無法承受的通貨膨脹。通脹對這些毛利率的影響至少有 100 個基點，但我們正試圖通過 1MPACT 和其他舉措來管理這一點。所以是的，所以毛利率下降了大約 300 個基點。然後 EBITDA 下降了 400 個基點，因為我們現在在第一季度指導的中點為 13%。我們在 22 年第一季度佔 17%。大約300個基點來自我剛才提到的毛利率。其他 100 個基點與負操作槓桿有關。勞動力通脹是另一部分。這就是推動第一季度的動力。

As you look at the year, Seth, we are going to see a gradual increase in gross margins throughout the year. So while we're -- I just mentioned 36% in -- or that's what we're estimating for Q1. We expect that to ramp up probably relatively similar, maybe a little higher in Q2. But then in the second half of the year, we have good visibility, as I said in my prepared remarks, to the programs that are going to make up the revenue in the second half and, therefore, the margins on those programs, too. So we see a nice margin mix in the second half of the year, so it's closer to 42%, 43% gross margins. Then you also benefit from operating leverage because of the higher revenue in the second half.

賽斯，當你回顧這一年時，我們將看到全年毛利率逐漸增加。因此，雖然我們 - 我剛剛提到了 36% - 或者這就是我們對第一季度的估計。我們預計這可能會相對相似，在第二季度可能會更高一些。但是在下半年，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們對將在下半年彌補收入的項目有很好的了解，因此，這些項目的利潤也是如此。因此，我們看到下半年的利潤率組合不錯，因此接近 42%、43% 的毛利率。然後，由於下半年收入較高，您還可以從經營槓桿中受益。

If you step back, Seth, it's literally what I said, big picture earlier. The bookings really the last 2 years have been heavily weighted to the second half of the year. So we have a massive ramp in H2 this year. But with that, the timing of those orders, combined with long lead times on the materials, even though we've prepurchased inventories wherever we have a strong conviction that the orders and the timing going to come in, pushed the production revenue and the EBITDA to the right. So it's not like we're losing anything. We're not. But from a timing perspective and the mix of business is skewed towards the back half of the year like it was in fiscal year '22.

如果你退後一步，賽斯，這就是我之前所說的，大局觀。過去 2 年的預訂量在下半年佔了很大比重。所以我們今年下半年有一個巨大的增長。但是，這些訂單的時間安排，加上材料的較長交貨時間，即使我們已經預先購買了庫存，只要我們堅信訂單和時間將會到來，推動了生產收入和 EBITDA向右。因此，我們並沒有失去任何東西。不是。但從時間的角度來看，業務組合向下半年傾斜，就像在 22 財年一樣。

Now as I mentioned in Pete's comment, the good thing is that we saw the ramp in bookings in the second half and that ramp in bookings or that strength in bookings is actually continuing in the first half of this year, unlike last. So we are expecting pretty good growth year-over-year in the first half compared to what we experienced last year. So things do seem to be moving from an order flow perspective. But right now, we are being impacted from a timing and mix.

現在正如我在皮特的評論中提到的那樣，好消息是我們看到了下半年預訂量的增長，而且預訂量的增長或預訂量的增長實際上在今年上半年仍在繼續，與去年不同。因此，與去年相比，我們預計上半年的同比增長將相當不錯。因此，從訂單流的角度來看，事情似乎確實在發生變化。但現在，我們正受到時機和組合的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Ho with William Blair.

您的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Ho 和 William Blair。

Can you maybe help us understand or provide a little bit more color on how quickly you can push through pricing and maybe how we should think about that margin progression over the course of that second half of 2023?

您能否幫助我們了解或提供更多關於您推動定價的速度以及我們應該如何考慮在 2023 年下半年的利潤率增長方面的信息？

Yes. It's a good question. So the biggest area that we're probably seeing from an inflation perspective is in relation to semiconductors, which I think, as I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, account for about 38% of our external spend and not supporting the 70% of our revenue, which is coming from processing systems. So that's the biggest impact that we're seeing.

是的。這是個好問題。因此，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們可能看到的最大領域與半導體有關，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我認為半導體約占我們外部支出的 38%，而不是支持 70%我們的收入來自處理系統。所以這是我們看到的最大影響。

The rate at which you can pass through the inflationary pressures varies, quite honestly. So it depends upon the mix of business, how much is cost plus versus firm fixed price? How much of it you've already got in backlog when those materials come in. I can tell you, though, that we've got a major focus on it. And it's been a big part of what we're doing with 1MPACT. In multiple different areas, we're focusing on enhancing both the pricing side of things, our cost estimation, business proposal practices to ensure that we're adequately pricing the effects of inflation while looking at the commercial side of the business to make sure that we're capturing the value associated with the capabilities and the value that we're providing to customers.

老實說，你可以通過通脹壓力的速度各不相同。所以這取決於業務組合，成本加成與固定價格相比是多少？當這些材料進來時，你已經積壓了多少。不過，我可以告訴你，我們主要關注它。它是我們使用 1MPACT 所做工作的重要組成部分。在多個不同的領域，我們專注於增強事物的定價方面、我們的成本估算、業務建議實踐，以確保我們充分定價通貨膨脹的影響，同時著眼於業務的商業方面，以確保我們正在捕捉與我們提供給客戶的能力和價值相關的價值。

So right now, we just implemented a standard commercial product price increase that was effective across our microelectronics portfolio beginning July 1. We have got pretty -- we've narrowed the (inaudible) on quotes. We are controlling discounts. We are -- we changed our contract modification authorities internally, leveraging the new pricing tools that we put in place. So as we see materials, we're able to actually immediately, wherever possible, flow those actuals into our costs. So there's a huge amount of work going on. And we're actually expecting to offset a fair amount of the inflation that we're seeing in fiscal year '23, but maybe not all.

所以現在，我們剛剛實施了標準的商業產品價格上漲，從 7 月 1 日開始在我們的微電子產品組合中生效。我們已經很漂亮了——我們已經縮小了報價範圍（聽不清）。我們正在控制折扣。我們是——我們在內部改變了我們的合同修改權限，利用了我們實施的新定價工具。因此，當我們看到材料時，我們能夠在可能的情況下立即將這些實際值計入我們的成本中。所以有大量的工作正在進行。我們實際上預計會抵消我們在 23 財年看到的相當多的通貨膨脹，但可能不是全部。

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Moeller with Canaccord Genuity.

您的下一個問題來自於 Canaccord Genuity 的 Austin Moeller。

My first question here, just how do you view the discussions that are going on around the new $30 billion F-35 order? It's for around 375 aircraft, which is 22% lower than the last block by -- how would you expect that to impact Mercury relative to maybe what you expected? And do you think you could have higher margins on that smaller production lot?

我的第一個問題是，您如何看待圍繞新的 300 億美元 F-35 訂單進行的討論？大約有 375 架飛機，比上一個街區低 22%——相對於你的預期，你認為這會如何影響 Mercury？您認為您可以在較小的生產批次上獲得更高的利潤嗎？

Sure. So let me kind of step back a little bit, Austin, and kind of just give a more general update on the F-35. Because I think to some extent, it answers the question, but it's important to understand all moving parts. So we're obviously aware of just the production rebaselining and kind of what's going on. As we said in the past, we're on multiple parts of the F-35 system across different parts of our product line. And although we experienced a pretty substantial reduction in order flow in fiscal year '21 as a result of the TR3 development delays and the COVID impacts on manufacturing that resulted in the initial production rebaselining, things have improved substantially since then.

當然。所以讓我稍微退後一點，奧斯汀，然後就 F-35 提供更一般的更新。因為我認為在某種程度上，它回答了這個問題，但了解所有活動部分很重要。因此，我們顯然只知道生產重新基線和正在發生的事情。正如我們過去所說，我們在 F-35 系統的多個部分中涉及我們產品線的不同部分。儘管由於 TR3 開發延遲和 COVID 對製造業的影響導致最初的生產重新調整基準，我們在 21 財年經歷了相當大的訂單流減少，但自那以後情況已經有了很大改善。

Probably one of the more important ones for us is that, as L3 Harris reported on their last call, they successfully completed all of the safety flight testing requirements and delivered the first flight chipset on what is known as the F-35 TR3 ICP. It's the core processor associated with the F-35. They previously reported that the other elements of the systems that we're a part of, which is the panoramic cockpit display and the aircraft memory system have also [well down] the path.

可能對我們來說更重要的一個是，正如 L3 Harris 在上次通話中報告的那樣，他們成功完成了所有安全飛行測試要求，並交付了第一個飛行芯片組，即所謂的 F-35 TR3 ICP。它是與 F-35 相關的核心處理器。他們之前報告說，我們參與的系統的其他元素，即全景駕駛艙顯示器和飛機記憶系統也有[遠低於]路徑。

Lockheed clearly was able to actually reach an agreement on Lots 15 through 17. And so I think to me, there were some very important events that occurred during our fourth quarter there, I think, are not only important for Mercury, but also for the industry as a whole. Stepping back and looking at the F-35 for Mercury at a year level, we saw a very substantial rebound in orders as we've expected. So our orders on F-35 were up 123% year-over-year, with $24 million of orders in the fourth quarter. As we expected and discussed on our last call, we actually received the Lot 16 long lead time funding, as expected, following the initial award that we got in the first quarter of '22. That's important because it actually supports our revenue plan in fiscal '23. And right now, we're actually looking at a partial Lot 17 ultra-long lead time award in the first half of the new fiscal year.

洛克希德顯然能夠就第 15 到 17 號地段達成實際協議。所以我認為，在我們第四季度發生的一些非常重要的事件，我認為，不僅對 Mercury，而且對整個行業。退後一步，看看水星的 F-35 的年度水平，我們看到訂單數量大幅反彈，正如我們預期的那樣。因此，我們在 F-35 上的訂單同比增長 123%，第四季度的訂單為 2400 萬美元。正如我們在上次電話會議上所預期和討論的那樣，在我們在 22 年第一季度獲得的初始獎勵之後，正如預期的那樣，我們實際上收到了 Lot 16 的長期資金。這很重要，因為它實際上支持我們在 23 財年的收入計劃。而現在，我們實際上正在考慮在新財年上半年獲得部分 Lot 17 超長交貨時間獎。

Setting back to the question you asked, right, and the potential or the reduction in terms of the number of units, I think there's another couple of things that are important to understand, in particular, with Mercury. So we've been actually very successful winning new content on the program, actually expanding our content footprint with a couple of different customers in a couple of different sensor suites, both of which are moving. So following an initial award on one of them in the third quarter, we actually received additional orders in Q4 that is resulting in our substantially taking share from a competitor. And that will turn into future revenues and profits.

回到你問的問題，對，以及單位數量的潛力或減少，我認為還有一些重要的事情需要理解，尤其是水星。因此，我們實際上已經非常成功地贏得了該計劃的新內容，實際上擴大了我們的內容足跡，在幾個不同的傳感器套件中擁有幾個不同的客戶，這兩個套件都在移動。因此，在第三季度其中一個獲得初始獎勵之後，我們實際上在第四季度收到了額外的訂單，這導致我們從競爭對手那里大量獲得了份額。這將轉化為未來的收入和利潤。

On the other customer capability, we've actually completed qualification testing and anticipate an initial order in fiscal '23. So some of those new design wins are actually coming online and are more than expected to offset any decline in terms of the unit count. So overall for us, I think the content and the ASP continues to grow. The other thing that I think we are obviously noting is that there's clearly some impact associated with what's just happening in the Ukraine. There's far more interest in the F-35 from our NATO allies. So the Czech Republic indicates its intent to acquire 24 aircrafts. Greece is requesting 20, and the prospective sales to Canada, Germany, Finland and Switzerland. So all of which could help actually offset some of the U.S. decline. So overall, I think we made a lot of progress, the program is playing out the way in which we anticipated, and I think there's strong demand internationally.

在其他客戶能力方面，我們實際上已經完成了資格測試，並預計在 23 財年獲得初始訂單。因此，其中一些新的設計勝利實際上正在上線，並且超出預期可以抵消單位數量的任何下降。所以總的來說，對我們來說，我認為內容和 ASP 會繼續增長。我認為我們顯然注意到的另一件事是，烏克蘭正在發生的事情顯然會產生一些影響。我們的北約盟國對 F-35 的興趣要大得多。因此，捷克共和國表示有意購買 24 架飛機。希臘要求 20 輛，並將預期銷售到加拿大、德國、芬蘭和瑞士。因此，所有這些實際上都有助於抵消美國的部分衰退。所以總的來說，我認為我們取得了很大進展，該計劃正在按照我們預期的方式進行，而且我認為國際上有強勁的需求。

Great. And then just a follow-up on the tracking layer. I know you'd mentioned the SDA constellation. There's 200 satellites planned for the tracking layer, 684 satellites planned for the transport layer, 200 for the deterrence, et cetera. As some of these SDA constellations start to scale, do you foresee that this could maybe become a top 10 program or a more relevant program for Mercury?

偉大的。然後只是跟踪層的後續。我知道你提到了 SDA 星座。跟踪層計劃使用 200 顆衛星，傳輸層計劃使用 684 顆衛星，威懾層計劃使用 200 顆，等等。隨著這些 SDA 星座中的一些開始擴展，您是否預見這可能會成為前 10 名計劃或更與水星更相關的計劃？

I don't think it's going to hit the top 10 as we see it today, but we're obviously very, very pleased with the win. We're providing some of our space qualified solid-state drives. And I think there seems to be high interest in there, in that particular area. So -- we'll see how the space market evolves for Mercury. But clearly, we're thrilled to be a part of the tracking layer with one of our customers.

我不認為它會像我們今天看到的那樣進入前 10 名，但我們顯然對勝利非常非常滿意。我們正在提供一些符合太空要求的固態驅動器。而且我認為在那個特定領域似乎對那裡有很高的興趣。所以——我們將看看水星的太空市場是如何演變的。但顯然，我們很高興能與我們的一位客戶一起成為跟踪層的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自於 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Just a follow-up on Jonathan's question. Mark or Mike, can you tell us what percent of revenues are under fixed price contracts versus cost plus versus maybe the more commercial catalog book ship where you can get immediate price increases?

只是對喬納森問題的跟進。馬克或邁克，你能告訴我們固定價格合同與成本加成的收入百分比與你可以立即獲得價格上漲的更具商業性的目錄書船的收入百分比是多少？

And if you got that, Mike?

如果你明白了，邁克？

Yes, Mike, the vast majority of our programs are either commercial terms or fixed price. So from a cost-plus perspective, that only is about $40 million to $50 million of our fiscal '22 revenues, about 5% of the overall business. Commercial still accounts for a lot of our pricing, probably 50% plus, probably around 60%. And then 35% is noncommercial firm things price.

是的，邁克，我們的絕大多數程序要么是商業條款，要么是固定價格。因此，從成本加成的角度來看，這僅占我們 22 財年收入的 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元，約佔整體業務的 5%。商業仍然占我們定價的很大一部分，可能超過 50%，可能在 60% 左右。然後35%是非商業公司的東西價格。

So to go back, talk about last quarter, Mike, right, is the fact that we've actually got a relatively short sales cycle where our customers actually order capabilities from Mercury in line with our manufacturing lead times, probably the only time that the short cycle business assists with our ability to be able to pass on those inflationary pressures versus having multiyear agreements, which is really not the way in which the industry works for the sub tiers right now.

所以回到上個季度，邁克，對，事實上，我們實際上有一個相對較短的銷售週期，我們的客戶實際上是根據我們的製造提前期從 Mercury 訂購能力，這可能是唯一一次與簽訂多年協議相比，短週期業務有助於我們能夠傳遞這些通脹壓力，而這實際上不是該行業目前為子層工作的方式。

Yes. I guess that's what I'm trying to figure out that if 50% is commercial, it seems like there's more of an outsized impact then for you guys on the inflation, where you could be passing along. Or maybe I've got that wrong?

是的。我想這就是我想要弄清楚的，如果 50% 是商業化的，那麼對於你們來說，對通貨膨脹的影響似乎更大，你可能會傳遞下去。或者也許我錯了？

No, we are passing it through. So we're seeing bigger effects internally than I think than what we actually experienced last year in terms of the margin degradation. And I think it's due to the fact that we're able to pass the prices on where appropriate as a commercial company or just given the short cycle nature of the business. So it doesn't mean that we're immune. Again, 38% of our external spend is related to semiconductors. And we're seeing 10% to 20% price increases across the board in the different categories. So then ultimately becomes a matter of timing when do you absorb those costs and how quickly can you pass them through. We do believe it's tempering.

不，我們正在通過它。因此，就利潤率下降而言，我們在內部看到的影響比我想像的要大。我認為這是因為我們能夠在適當的情況下作為商業公司傳遞價格，或者只是考慮到業務的短週期性質。所以這並不意味著我們是免疫的。同樣，我們 38% 的外部支出與半導體有關。我們看到不同類別的價格全面上漲了 10% 到 20%。因此，最終成為您何時吸收這些成本以及您能以多快的速度通過它們的時間問題。我們確實相信它正在緩和。

Got it. And then just on 1MPACT, I think you guys had already recognized $27 million of incremental kind of savings, but now you're pushing (inaudible) it seems like you're already at that low end. Anything really changing on that incremental adjusted EBITDA there?

知道了。然後就在 1MPACT 上，我認為你們已經認識到 2700 萬美元的增量儲蓄，但現在你們正在推動（聽不清），似乎你們已經處於低端。那裡的增量調整後 EBITDA 有什麼真正變化嗎？

So no. I mean I think the 30 to 50 we believe, is still a good number. I think if anything, the pipeline of opportunities associated with 1MPACT is increasing. We did push out the achievement as the goal year, largely because I think we're seeing the impact of inflation at the back end of fiscal '22 and more so in fiscal year '23. But overall, I think, 1MPACT should drive substantial margin expansion over the course of the next 5 years. I don't know if you want to add anything, Mike?

所以不行。我的意思是，我認為我們相信的 30 到 50 仍然是一個不錯的數字。我認為，如果有的話，與 1MPACT 相關的機會管道正在增加。我們確實將這一成就作為目標年推出，主要是因為我認為我們在 22 財年的後端看到了通貨膨脹的影響，在 23 財年更是如此。但總的來說，我認為 1MPACT 應該會在未來 5 年內推動利潤率大幅增長。我不知道你是否想補充什麼，邁克？

No. I mean I think you hit on it. The only thing I would say is the fact that we launched 1MPACT slightly over 12 months ago, it means we're really well positioned to face the headwinds that we've got. So while we're delaying things, I think we're in a good position to offset some of the headwinds that we're seeing.

不，我的意思是我認為你碰上了它。我唯一要說的是，我們在 12 個月前推出了 1MPACT，這意味著我們已經做好了應對逆風的準備。因此，雖然我們推遲了一些事情，但我認為我們處於一個很好的位置來抵消我們所看到的一些不利因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe if we could just summarize some of the comments from prior, whether it was a question or Mike just now. When we think about the fiscal '23 margins, how much of that comes from inflation? I think you said 100 bps earlier versus volume inefficiencies and then development programs. And Mark, last time I saw you at a facility, your facilities are pretty good. So how much of the impact comes from those development programs? And what are those programs? And when do they transition into production?

也許我們可以總結一下之前的一些評論，無論是剛才的問題還是邁克。當我們考慮 23 財年的利潤率時，其中有多少來自通貨膨脹？我認為您早說 100 個基點，而不是數量效率低下，然後是開發計劃。還有馬克，上次我在設施裡見到你時，你的設施還不錯。那麼有多少影響來自這些發展計劃呢？這些程序是什麼？他們什麼時候過渡到生產？

Yes. So Sheila, let me take a cut at that. In terms of inflation and how we've positioned that into our guidance, we have put some inflation headwinds into the guidance that we have. I mean one thing to remember is we're guiding right now in a very fluid environment with the macroeconomic headwinds. And we're trying to predict what's going to happen not just over the next 6 months, but over the next 12 months. So we're trying to be conservative on the impact of the, let's call it, the unknown unknowns that we try to consider in our guidance.

是的。所以希拉，讓我對此有所了解。就通脹以及我們如何將其定位到我們的指導而言，我們已經在我們的指導中加入了一些通脹逆風。我的意思是要記住的一件事是，我們現在正處於一個非常不穩定的環境中，面臨宏觀經濟逆風。我們試圖預測未來 6 個月以及未來 12 個月會發生什麼。因此，我們試圖對我們在指導中嘗試考慮的未知因素的影響保持保守，我們稱之為未知因素。

But if you look at what's in our plan, we do have about 100 basis points associated with inflation and pricing that we won't be able to pass through. As we just talked about with Mike, we're using everything we can on our 1MPACT initiatives to pass that through. But that's currently in our guidance.

但是，如果您查看我們的計劃中的內容，我們確實有大約 100 個與通貨膨脹和定價相關的基點是我們無法通過的。正如我們剛剛與 Mike 談到的那樣，我們在 1MPACT 計劃中盡我們所能來通過它。但這目前在我們的指導下。

The rest of it really is around program mix. And that goes to what we were talking about earlier, which is a lot of the production programs that we have, are pushing production into the second half of this fiscal year or into fiscal '24. But we've got growth programs. We've talked about AMCS in the past, which is still in the development phase, that in fiscal '23, that's still in the development phase, probably goes to production sometime in fiscal '24.

其餘的實際上是圍繞程序混合。這就是我們之前所說的，這是我們擁有的許多生產計劃，正在將生產推向本財年下半年或 24 財年。但我們有成長計劃。我們過去討論過 AMCS，它仍處於開發階段，在 23 財年仍處於開發階段，可能會在 24 財年的某個時間投入生產。

We've got other programs within our microwave business. We've got a classified space program that's in development that will go into production in fiscal '24 and a handful of programs like that. F-18, parts of F-18 that we're doing are currently in development in the higher-margin production [world] (66:50)in that case, is towards the second half of '23. So a handful of things that are driving the lower margin in our guidance. Inflation is part of it, but then the program mix is another part of it which was impacted by the supply chain and contracting environment. So things were pushed to the right.

我們的微波業務中還有其他項目。我們有一個正在開發中的機密太空計劃，將在 24 財年投入生產，還有一些類似的計劃。 F-18，我們正在做的 F-18 的一部分目前正在開發中，在這種情況下，在更高利潤的生產 [世界] (66:50) 中，是在 23 年下半年。因此，在我們的指導中，有一些因素導致利潤率下降。通貨膨脹是其中的一部分，但計劃組合是受供應鍊和合同環境影響的另一部分。所以事情被推到了右邊。

Let me just step back a little bit because I think there's -- obviously, there's a whole bunch of things hit the industry this quarter. And to me, it feels like we're in the midst of a multiyear industry event that was precipitated by COVID. And yes, clearly, I think we're all being measured in terms of what happens on a quarterly basis. But if you step back, we're actually -- given the guidance that we've just given, we're heading into actually our fourth fiscal year of dealing with the primary and the derivative effects of COVID. And actually, each year, it's had a really somewhat distinct set of characteristics that have actually affected the subsequent year.

讓我退後一點，因為我認為 - 顯然，本季度有很多事情影響了這個行業。對我來說，感覺就像我們正處於一場由 COVID 促成的多年行業盛會之中。是的，很明顯，我認為我們都在根據每季度發生的事情來衡量。但是，如果您退後一步，我們實際上 - 鑑於我們剛剛給出的指導，我們實際上正在進入處理 COVID 的主要和衍生影響的第四個財政年度。實際上，每一年，它都有一組非常明顯的特徵，這些特徵實際上影響了接下來的一年。

And so given the relative short cycle nature of our business versus our customers and the size of their respective backlogs, the effect may not always be as readily apparent depending upon the time frame. And so it's pretty complex what's going on when you step back from it. But I think we're clearly seeing the effects now moving its way up the industry. The supply chain disruption that hit the industry pretty hard this quarter, the seeds of that was sewn many quarters previously. It is just hard to see and even more difficult to forecast. So we began to see the effects of that in our fiscal year '20 -- '21, sorry.

因此，鑑於我們的業務相對於我們的客戶而言相對較短的周期性質以及他們各自積壓的規模，其影響可能並不總是那麼明顯，具體取決於時間框架。所以當你退後一步時會發生什麼是相當複雜的。但我認為我們已經清楚地看到了現在向行業發展的影響。本季度對行業造成嚴重打擊的供應鏈中斷，其種子在許多季度之前就已經播下。只是很難看到，甚至更難預測。所以我們開始在我們的 20 - 21 財年看到它的影響，抱歉。

We got through the initial phase with the health care crisis phase of COVID in '20 pretty much unscathed. But we did see the effects of the order slowdown in '21. We had a 0.95 book to bill. That obviously affected the revenue and the profits associated with '21. And we're now clearly seeing the uptick in bookings in '22, but it was back half weighted. Bookings for the year were up 33%. For the second half '22 and for the year as a whole, we're up 21%. And as I mentioned before, we're actually expecting a strong bookings cadence in the first half. And our customers just had a very strong book-to-bill.

我們幾乎毫髮無損地度過了 20 世紀 COVID 的醫療保健危機階段的初始階段。但我們確實看到了 21 年訂單放緩的影響。我們有一本 0.95 的書要收費。這顯然影響了與 21 年相關的收入和利潤。我們現在清楚地看到 22 年的預訂量有所上升，但它的權重下降了一半。今年的預訂量增長了 33%。 22 年下半年和全年，我們上漲了 21%。正如我之前提到的，我們實際上預計上半年會有強勁的預訂節奏。我們的客戶剛剛擁有非常強大的賬面結算能力。

So it's clearly not a demand issue. But we started to see the effects from a supply chain perspective in the second quarter, and it's kind of -- it's continued throughout the year. We also saw the effects of the great resignation, meaning it was harder to actually find the right engineering and manufacturing talent that we needed to continue to grow the business. And those challenges, I think, became more of an issue as the year progress. And I think that's what you're clearly seeing in the industry right now. We saw -- begin to see the effects of inflation in the fourth quarter. And as we're now heading into the full year '23, we're expecting a greater effect.

所以這顯然不是需求問題。但我們在第二季度開始從供應鏈的角度看到影響，而且這種影響全年都在持續。我們還看到了大辭職的影響，這意味著要真正找到我們需要繼續發展業務的合適的工程和製造人才變得更加困難。我認為，隨著時間的推移，這些挑戰變得越來越重要。我認為這就是你現在在行業中清楚地看到的。我們看到——開始看到第四季度通脹的影響。隨著我們現在進入 23 年全年，我們期待更大的影響。

So I think given the fact that we're guiding for the full year and given how this is a multiyear effect, we are somewhat more conservative just in our outlook just given everything that's going on, there are a lot of unknowns right now that we feel that we need to take into account. So they're temporary, they're short term, we believe, and the outlook looks great going forward. But clearly, the industry has been impacted.

因此，我認為鑑於我們正在為全年提供指導，並且考慮到這是一個多年的影響，我們只是在我們的前景方面更加保守，只是考慮到正在發生的一切，現在有很多未知數，我們覺得我們需要考慮。所以它們是暫時的，它們是短期的，我們相信，而且前景看起來很好。但顯然，該行業受到了影響。

Mr. Aslett, it appears there are no further questions. Therefore, I would like to turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

阿斯萊特先生，看來沒有其他問題了。因此，我想將電話轉回給您以結束髮言。

Okay. Well, thank you very much, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Take care. Bye-bye.

好的。好的，非常感謝大家加入我們。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。小心。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連接。