芯源系統 (MPWR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everyone, to the MPS Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Webinar. My name is Genevieve Cunningham, and I will be the moderator for this webinar. Joining me today are Michael Hsing, CEO and Founder of MPS; and Bernie Blegen, VP and CFO.

歡迎大家參加 MPS 2023 年第二季度收益網絡研討會。我叫吉納維芙·坎寧安 (Genevieve Cunningham)，我將擔任本次網絡研討會的主持人。今天和我一起的還有 MPS 首席執行官兼創始人 Michael Hsing；副總裁兼首席財務官伯尼·布萊根 (Bernie Blegen)。

In the course of today's webinar, we will make forward-looking statements and projections that involve risk and uncertainty, which could cause results to differ materially from management's current views and expectations. Please refer to the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release published today. Risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ are identified in the safe harbor statements contained in the Q2 earnings release and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K filed on February 24, 2023, and our Form 10-Q filed on May 5, 2023, which are accessible through our website. MPS assumes no obligation to update the information provided on today's call.

在今天的網絡研討會中，我們將做出涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述和預測，這可能導致結果與管理層當前的觀點和預期存在重大差異。請參閱今天發布的收益報告中包含的安全港聲明。第二季度收益發布中包含的安全港聲明和我們向 SEC 提交的文件（包括我們於 2023 年 2 月 24 日提交的表格 10-K 和表格 10- Q 於 2023 年 5 月 5 日提交，可通過我們的網站訪問。 MPS 不承擔更新今天電話會議中提供的信息的義務。

We will be discussing gross margin, operating expense, operating income, other income, income before income taxes, net income and earnings on both a GAAP and a non-GAAP basis. These non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Tables that outline the reconciliation between the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures are included in our Q2 2023 earnings release, which we have furnished to the SEC and is currently available on our website.

我們將討論公認會計準則和非公認會計準則基礎上的毛利率、營業費用、營業收入、其他收入、所得稅前收入、淨利潤和收益。這些非公認會計原則財務指標並非根據公認會計原則編制，不應被視為替代或優於根據公認會計原則編制的財務業績指標。概述非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標之間調節的表格包含在我們的 2023 年第二季度收益發布中，該發布已向 SEC 提供，目前可在我們的網站上獲取。

I'd also like to remind you that today's conference call is being webcast live over the Internet and will be available for replay on our website for 1 year, along with the earnings release filed with the SEC earlier today.

我還想提醒您，今天的電話會議正在通過互聯網進行網絡直播，並將與今天早些時候向 SEC 提交的收益報告一起在我們的網站上重播，為期一年。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bernie Blegen.

現在我想把電話轉給伯尼·布萊根。

Thanks, Gen. MPS reported second quarter revenue of $441.1 million, 2.2% lower than the first quarter of 2023 and 4.3% lower than the second quarter of 2022. Compared with Q1 2023, sales and communications were lower, while industrial, storage and computing, consumer, and enterprise data improved sequentially.

謝謝，Gen. MPS 報告第二季度營收為 4.411 億美元，比 2023 年第一季度下降 2.2%，比 2022 年第二季度下降 4.3%。與 2023 年第一季度相比，銷售和通信業務有所下降，而工業、存儲和計算業務則有所下降、消費者和企業數據依次改善。

Turning now to our second quarter 2023 revenue by market. Storage and computing revenue of $124.5 million increased 3.9% from the first quarter of 2023. The sequential revenue improvement primarily reflected higher commercial notebook sales. Second quarter 2023 storage and computing revenue was up 1.8% year-over-year. Storage and computing revenue represented 28.2% of MPS' second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 26.5% in the second quarter of 2022.

現在來看看我們按市場劃分的 2023 年第二季度收入。存儲和計算收入為 1.245 億美元，較 2023 年第一季度增長 3.9%。收入環比增長主要反映了商用筆記本電腦銷量的增長。 2023 年第二季度存儲和計算收入同比增長 1.8%。存儲和計算收入佔 MPS 2023 年第二季度收入的 28.2%，而 2022 年第二季度為 26.5%。

Second quarter 2023 industrial revenue of $49.7 million increased 4.8% from the first quarter of 2023, reflecting increased sales of products for power source and industrial meter applications. Second quarter 2023 industrial revenue was down 11.0% year-over-year. Industrial revenue represented 11.3% of our total second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 12.1% in the second quarter of 2022.

2023 年第二季度工業收入為 4970 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季度增長 4.8%，反映出電源和工業儀表應用產品銷量的增長。 2023年第二季度工業收入同比下降11.0%。工業收入佔 2023 年第二季度總收入的 11.3%，而 2022 年第二季度為 12.1%。

Second quarter consumer revenue of $65.2 million increased 2.9% from the first quarter of 2023. The sequential quarterly revenue improvement reflected higher gaming, TV and mobile device sales. Second quarter 2023 consumer revenue was down 33.0% year-over-year. Consumer revenue represented 14.8% of MPS' second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 21.1% in the second quarter of 2022.

第二季度消費者收入為 6520 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季度增長 2.9%。季度收入的環比增長反映了遊戲、電視和移動設備銷量的增長。 2023 年第二季度消費者收入同比下降 33.0%。消費者收入佔 MPS 2023 年第二季度收入的 14.8%，而 2022 年第二季度為 21.1%。

In our enterprise data markets, second quarter 2023 revenue of $48.0 million increased 1.7% from the first quarter of 2023 primarily due to initial shipments of new generation AI applications, which offset softer demand for CPU applications. Second quarter 2023 enterprise data revenue was down 26.4% year-over-year. Enterprise data revenue represented 10.9% of MPS' second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 14.2% in the second quarter of 2022.

在我們的企業數據市場中，2023 年第二季度的收入為 4800 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季度增長 1.7%，這主要是由於新一代人工智能應用程序的首次出貨，抵消了對 CPU 應用程序的疲軟需求。 2023 年第二季度企業數據收入同比下降 26.4%。企業數據收入佔 MPS 2023 年第二季度收入的 10.9%，而 2022 年第二季度為 14.2%。

Second quarter automotive revenue of $104.4 million decreased 0.9% from the first quarter 2023. Second quarter 2023 automotive revenue was up 71.1% year-over-year. Automotive revenue represented 23.6% of MPS' second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 13.2% in the second quarter of 2022.

第二季度汽車收入為 1.044 億美元，較 2023 年第一季度下降 0.9%。2023 年第二季度汽車收入同比增長 71.1%。汽車收入佔 MPS 2023 年第二季度收入的 23.6%，而 2022 年第二季度為 13.2%。

Second quarter 2023 communications revenue of $49.3 million was down 27.4% from the first quarter of 2023, primarily reflecting lower infrastructure sales. Second quarter 2023 communications revenue was down 16.9% year-over-year. Communications sales represented 11.2% of our total second quarter 2023 revenue compared with 12.9% in the second quarter of 2022.

2023 年第二季度通信收入為 4930 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季度下降 27.4%，主要反映基礎設施銷售下降。 2023 年第二季度通信收入同比下降 16.9%。通信銷售額佔 2023 年第二季度總收入的 11.2%，而 2022 年第二季度為 12.9%。

I'd like to make some general comments about our business. In our previous earning calls, we had noted customer ordering patterns could oscillate. This has turned out to be the case. We continue to see some orders getting delayed or amended by pull-in requests. This lack of short-term visibility has made forecasting beyond Q3 2023 more difficult. However, our business fundamentals remain unchanged. In the last few years, our revenue and customer base have expanded tremendously, particularly amongst Tier 1 accounts. We believe we've solidified our market share gains by delivering quality products and services.

我想對我們的業務發表一些一般性評論。在之前的財報電話會議中，我們注意到客戶訂購模式可能會出現波動。事實證明確實如此。我們繼續看到一些訂單因拉入請求而被延遲或修改。由於缺乏短期可見性，2023 年第三季度以後的預測變得更加困難。然而，我們的業務基本面保持不變。在過去幾年中，我們的收入和客戶群大幅擴大，尤其是一級客戶。我們相信，通過提供優質的產品和服務，我們已經鞏固了我們的市場份額。

Additionally, we have a strong design win pipeline, which positions us well for future growth. Here are a few highlights -- here are a few of our recent highlights.

此外，我們擁有強大的設計贏得管道，這為我們未來的增長奠定了良好的基礎。以下是一些亮點——這是我們最近的一些亮點。

We have been designated a preferred supplier with multiple Tier 1 customers in automotive and telecom markets. We have started sampling silicon carbide power solutions for data centers and green energy conversion. We are also continuing development for EV power management applications. We are continuing to broaden our customer base for AI applications and developing solutions for next-generation platforms. We have new design wins in battery management solutions and USB-PD for automotive, industrial and consumer applications. These will be major revenue drivers as we look ahead to 2024 and 2025.

我們被指定為汽車和電信市場多個一級客戶的首選供應商。我們已經開始對數據中心和綠色能源轉換的碳化矽電源解決方案進行採樣。我們還在繼續開發電動汽車電源管理應用。我們正在繼續擴大人工智能應用的客戶群，並為下一代平台開發解決方案。我們在汽車、工業和消費應用的電池管理解決方案和 USB-PD 方面取得了新的設計成果。展望 2024 年和 2025 年，這些將成為主要的收入驅動因素。

Moving now to a few comments on gross margin. GAAP gross margin was 56.1%, 120 basis points lower than the first quarter of 2023 and 260 basis points lower than the second quarter of 2022. Our GAAP operating income was $112.3 million compared to $124.3 million reported in the first quarter of 2023. Non-GAAP gross margin for the second quarter of 2023 was 56.5%, down 120 basis points from the gross margin reported in the first quarter of 2023. The quarter-over-quarter decrease in both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin is attributed largely to unfavorable variances and higher direct expenses. Our Q2 2023 non-GAAP operating income was $153.1 million compared to $164.1 million reported in the first quarter of 2023.

現在談談對毛利率的一些評論。 GAAP 毛利率為 56.1%，比 2023 年第一季度低 120 個基點，比 2022 年第二季度低 260 個基點。我們的 GAAP 營業收入為 1.123 億美元，而 2023 年第一季度報告的營業收入為 1.243 億美元。 2023 年第二季度 GAAP 毛利率為 56.5%，較 2023 年第一季度報告的毛利率下降 120 個基點。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率環比下降主要歸因於不利因素差異和更高的直接費用。我們的 2023 年第二季度非 GAAP 營業收入為 1.531 億美元，而 2023 年第一季度報告的營業收入為 1.641 億美元。

Let's review our operating expenses. Our GAAP operating expenses were $135.4 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared with $134.5 million in the first quarter of 2023. Our non-GAAP second quarter 2023 operating expenses were $96.0 million, matching what was reported in the first quarter of 2023. The difference between non-GAAP operating expenses and GAAP operating expenses for the quarters discussed here are primarily stock compensation expense and income or loss on an unfunded deferred compensation plan. For the second quarter of 2023, total stock compensation expense, including approximately $1.1 million charged to cost of goods sold was $38.0 million compared with $37.0 million recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

讓我們回顧一下我們的運營費用。我們 2023 年第二季度的 GAAP 運營費用為 1.354 億美元，而 2023 年第一季度為 1.345 億美元。我們的非 GAAP 2023 年第二季度運營費用為 9600 萬美元，與 2023 年第一季度報告的數據相符。這裡討論的季度的非 GAAP 運營費用和 GAAP 運營費用主要是股票補償費用和無資金籌措的遞延補償計劃的收入或損失。 2023 年第二季度，股票補償費用總額（包括計入銷售成本的約 110 萬美元）為 3800 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季度的記錄為 3700 萬美元。

Switching to the bottom line. Second quarter 2023 GAAP net income was $99.5 million or $2.04 per fully diluted share compared with $109.8 million or $2.26 per share in the first quarter of 2023. Second quarter 2023 non-GAAP net income was $137.5 million or $2.82 per fully diluted share compared with $146.0 million or $3 per fully diluted share in the first quarter of 2023. Fully diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q2 2023 were 48.8 million.

切換到底線。 2023 年第二季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 9950 萬美元，即完全稀釋每股 2.04 美元，而 2023 年第一季度為 1.098 億美元，即每股 2.26 美元。2023 年第二季度非 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.375 億美元，即完全稀釋每股 2.82 美元，而 2023 年第一季度為 146.0 美元2023 年第一季度完全稀釋後每股 100 萬股或 3 美元。截至 2023 年第二季度末，完全稀釋後流通股為 4880 萬股。

Now let's look at balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $941.1 million at the end of the second quarter of 2023 compared to $919.1 million at the end of the first quarter of 2023. For the quarter, MPS generated operating cash flow of approximately $90.2 million compared with Q1 2023 operating cash flow of $218.8 million. Accounts receivable ended the second quarter of 2023 at $169.2 million, representing 35 days of sales outstanding, which was 2 days lower than the 37 days reported at the end of the first quarter of 2023.

現在讓我們看看資產負債表。 2023 年第二季度末的現金、現金等價物和投資為 9.411 億美元，而 2023 年第一季度末為 9.191 億美元。與 2023 年第一季度末相比，MPS 本季度產生的運營現金流約為 9020 萬美元現金流為2.188億美元。 2023 年第二季度末的應收賬款為 1.692 億美元，相當於 35 天的銷售未清天數，比 2023 年第一季度末報告的 37 天減少了 2 天。

Our internal inventories at the end of the second quarter of 2023 were $427.4 million, down from the $430.8 million at the end of the first quarter of 2023. Days of inventory of 201 days at the end of the second quarter of 2023 were 3 days lower than at the end of the first quarter of 2023. Comparing current inventory levels with the following quarter's projected revenue, you can see days of inventory decrease to 184 days at the end of the second quarter of 2023 from 203 days at the end of the first quarter of 2023.

截至 2023 年第二季度末，我們的內部庫存為 4.274 億美元，低於 2023 年第一季度末的 4.308 億美元。2023 年第二季度末的庫存天數為 201 天，減少了 3 天與 2023 年第一季度末相比。將當前庫存水平與下一季度的預計收入進行比較，您可以看到庫存天數從第一季度末的 203 天減少到 2023 年第二季度末的 184 天。 2023 年第四季度。

I would now like to turn to our outlook for the third quarter of 2023. We are forecasting Q3 revenue in the range of $464 million to $484 million, GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.5% to 56.1%, non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.7% to 56.3%, total stock-based compensation expense in the range of $33.5 million to $35.5 million including approximately $1.0 million that would be charged to cost of goods sold, GAAP operating expenses between $129.4 million and $133.4 million, non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $96.9 million to $98.9 million. This estimate excludes stock compensation expense but includes litigation expense. Interest and other income in the range of $3.0 million to $3.4 million before foreign exchange gains or losses, fully diluted shares in the range of 48.6 million to 49.0 million shares.

現在我想談談我們對 2023 年第三季度的展望。我們預計第三季度收入將在 4.64 億美元至 4.84 億美元之間，公認會計原則毛利率將在 55.5% 至 56.1% 之間，非公認會計原則毛利率將在範圍在 55.7% 至 56.3% 之間，基於股票的補償費用總額在 3350 萬美元至 3550 萬美元之間，其中包括約 100 萬美元將計入銷售成本，GAAP 運營費用在 1.294 億美元至 1.334 億美元之間，非GAAP 運營費用在 9690 萬美元至 9890 萬美元之間。這一估計不包括股票補償費用，但包括訴訟費用。不計外匯損益的利息和其他收入範圍為 300 萬至 340 萬美元，完全稀釋後的股份範圍為 4,860 萬至 4,900 萬股。

In conclusion, we continue to execute our long-term strategy.

總之，我們將繼續執行我們的長期戰略。

I will now open the webinar for questions.

我現在將開始網絡研討會以供提問。

Thank you, Bernie. Analysts, I would now like to begin our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank.

謝謝你，伯尼。分析師們，我現在想開始我們的問答環節。 （操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Just wanted to ask, Bernie, first, when you had your general business condition update about orders remaining volatile, et cetera, I wonder if you could just give us a little more color. Are things kind of improving, staying the same? And is there any changes in things like competitive intensity, pricing, geographic differences? Any color -- a little bit more detail than what you gave in your original preamble.

伯尼，我只是想問一下，首先，當您更新有關訂單波動等情況的一般業務狀況時，我想知道您是否可以給我們提供更多信息。事情是否有所改善，保持不變？競爭強度、定價、地域差異等方面是否有任何變化？任何顏色——比您在原始序言中提供的內容更詳細一些。

Sure. I'd be glad to help out with that. So I think that we started that part of the conversation by acknowledging that in each of the last -- the prior 3 quarters that we believe that ordering patterns would oscillate. And that's pretty consistent when you're coming off of the period where there's been an extra normal level of ordering that created a demand-supply imbalance that, afterwards, you're sort of draining your backlog as you are watching your customers try to align around what they're guessing is end customer demand. So as a result of that, we have not had the same level of visibility out past 90 to 120 days that we would have during the more normal ordering pattern. And so as a result of that, we don't have the same level of predictability.

當然。我很樂意幫忙。因此，我認為我們在開始這部分對話時承認，在過去的三個季度中，我們認為訂購模式會發生振盪。當你剛剛經歷了一個異常正常的訂單水平導致供需失衡的時期後，這種情況是相當一致的，之後，當你看著你的客戶試圖調整訂單時，你就會耗盡你的積壓訂單。圍繞他們猜測的最終客戶需求。因此，在過去 90 到 120 天內，我們沒有獲得與更正常的訂購模式相同的可見性水平。因此，我們沒有同等水平的可預測性。

On the second half of your question, the one thing that remains consistent, whether it's under normal conditions or whether it's today, is we've always been in a very competitive marketplace. And obviously, price downs are the norm and that we have competitors like ourselves that are trying to go after as much incremental business during this transitory period as possible.

關於你問題的後半部分，無論是在正常情況下還是在今天，保持一致的一件事是我們一直處於一個競爭非常激烈的市場中。顯然，價格下跌是常態，我們有像我們這樣的競爭對手，他們試圖在這個過渡時期盡可能多地追求增量業務。

Let me add to -- we do see a slight improvement in the first quarter, and essentially, it's similar. And we do see a consumer business improvement in -- from both -- from the U.S. side to Asia side. And other ones pretty much stay the same.

讓我補充一點——我們確實看到第一季度略有改善，本質上是相似的。我們確實看到，從美國到亞洲，消費者業務都在改善。其他的幾乎保持不變。

Great. I guess as my follow-up, Bernie, you guys have had relatively volatile end markets, not specific to you but just in a general sense. So any sort of color in your guide for the third quarter between the various end markets? And the one I think most people are most interested in, albeit still a relatively smaller part of your business, is your enterprise data segment. Any sort of color between the AI side you talked about last -- for the second quarter and the CPU side, which has been a little bit weaker?

偉大的。我想，作為我的後續行動，伯尼，你們的終端市場相對波動，不是針對你們的，而是一般意義上的。那麼，您對第三季度各個終端市場的指南有什麼顏色呢？我認為大多數人最感興趣的是企業數據部分，儘管它仍然佔業務的相對較小部分。您上次談到的第二季度的 AI 方面和稍弱一點的 CPU 方面之間有什麼區別嗎？

Yes, you already answered all your questions there. We don't see -- okay, where all the products relate to -- with the AI, we cannot ship enough. Now in other ones -- in other part of enterprise data like data centers, CPU powers, these are still delayed.

是的，您已經在那裡回答了所有問題。我們沒有看到——好吧，所有產品都與人工智能相關——我們無法提供足夠的產品。現在在其他方面——在企業數據的其他部分，如數據中心、CPU 能力，這些仍然被延遲。

Yes. And one other thing to add, and this is specific to MPS, not necessarily a broader comment at the general market, but automotive came in a little bit lower than would have been expected. And as we look at the ramp in the second half, we're observing that, at least for 2 of our customers, unit volumes appear to be lower, and we had 2 product launches, which have been delayed into Q4, into Q1.

是的。還有一件事需要補充，這是 MPS 特有的，不一定是一般市場上更廣泛的評論，但汽車行業的表現略低於預期。當我們觀察下半年的增長時，我們發現，至少對於我們的 2 個客戶來說，單位銷量似乎較低，而且我們有 2 個產品發布，已推遲到第四季度、第一季度。

Our next question is from Quinn Bolton of Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自李約瑟的奎因·博爾頓。

Michael and Bernie, I just wanted to ask on the GPU side of the business. There's been recent chatter in the market that one of your large customers may be bringing in Renaissance as a second source as well as potentially Vicor. Just wondering if you might share any thoughts you have as you look forward with that customer about the impact of multisourcing at that customer. And maybe a related question, how are you feeling about your position looking into the next-generation 3-nanometer processor at that customer? And then I've got a follow-up.

Michael 和 Bernie，我只是想問一下 GPU 方面的業務。最近市場上有傳言稱，您的一位大客戶可能會將 Renaissance 以及潛在的 Vicor 引入為第二來源。只是想知道您是否可以與該客戶分享您對多采購對該客戶的影響的任何想法。也許還有一個相關的問題，您對該客戶研究下一代 3 納米處理器的立場有何看法？然後我有一個後續行動。

Okay. I think so far, we're in the lead position. And I can't -- we are engaged deeply in the future design and develop a new product for the second generations or for other -- the next generations. And so other than that, we can't speculate anything. Okay.

好的。我認為到目前為止，我們處於領先地位。我不能——我們正在深入參與未來的設計，並為第二代或其他——下一代開發新產品。除此之外，我們無法推測任何事情。好的。

I think in most scenarios, and this particular customer is representative, is they want to take a leadership position through innovation, and they found us an equal partner for that. But it's in everybody's best interest that it be a competitive, not a single source. And so yes, we'd always anticipated that there would be redesigns that allow competition into the market.

我認為在大多數情況下，這個特定的客戶是有代表性的，他們希望通過創新佔據領導地位，並且他們為此找到了我們平等的合作夥伴。但它是一個有競爭力的來源，而不是單一來源，這符合每個人的最佳利益。所以，是的，我們一直預計會有重新設計，以允許市場競爭。

Either we are the provider of best solutions and at the same time, we understand that our customers requires other solutions. This is a very large market. There's no means that MPS can supply everything in the market. And also MPS is always -- we emphasize diversified growth. And if there's a performance need, I believe that MPS is the best solutions now in -- for -- in -- for the near future.

要么我們是最佳解決方案的提供者，同時我們了解我們的客戶需要其他解決方案。這是一個非常大的市場。 MPS 不可能提供市場上的所有產品。 MPS 始終強調多元化增長。如果有性能需求，我相信 MPS 是目前、未來、近期的最佳解決方案。

Bernie, you mentioned sort of visibility out beyond 90 to 120 days is pretty choppy at this point just given the industry dynamics. I guess I look out to the fourth quarter, and it looks like the Street has modeled the fourth quarter approximately flat, which I think is an above-seasonal pattern for MPS historically. And I'm just wondering, can you comment whether you think an above seasonal fourth quarter looks right to you, perhaps given the ramp in the GPU business and some of the timing shifts you just mentioned in automotive? Or do you think it would be best to -- for investors to think that the December quarter is going to see a sort of a seasonal decline in the December quarter?

Bernie，您提到，考慮到行業動態，目前 90 到 120 天之後的能見度相當不穩定。我想我會展望第四季度，看起來華爾街對第四季度的預測大致持平，我認為這是 MPS 歷史上的高於季節性的模式。我只是想知道，考慮到 GPU 業務的增長以及您剛剛提到的汽車領域的一些時間變化，您是否認為高於季節性的第四季度對您來說是否合適？或者您認為投資者最好認為 12 月季度將出現某種季節性下降？

Yes. I think that normal seasonality for MPS would be somewhere between a sequential decline of between 4 and 5 percentage points. And I can point to the increase in the notebook sales during Q3, which precedes Christmas, and that's a normal seasonal factor that's expected to come down. And we're not seeing the uplift that had been anticipated from automotive. So I would be more comfortable with a seasonal down in Q4.

是的。我認為 MPS 的正常季節性將連續下降 4 到 5 個百分點。我可以指出第三季度（聖誕節前）筆記本電腦銷量的增長，這是正常的季節性因素，預計會下降。我們並沒有看到汽車行業預期的提升。因此，我對第四季度的季節性下滑會更加滿意。

Well, it's -- you mentioned there's seasonality. We're talking about seasonality. And I try to figure out what is the seasonality now. And last year in -- last couple of years, we have a very strong Q4, at least the year before that. Okay? And the customers see all these shortages, okay, I mean -- and now demand is clearly is much less. And so you have a -- we experienced like year-over-year, like in the last couple of years, like over 40%. And this year, clearly, there's not as much, okay, meaning they're much less. And I can't really call it seasonality anymore. So it's just -- as I said, it's not very clear. Okay. I mean -- but as Bernie said, usually in a seasonality, we're lowered.

嗯，你提到有季節性。我們正在談論季節性。我試圖弄清楚現在的季節性是什麼。去年，過去幾年，我們的第四季度非常強勁，至少前一年是這樣。好的？客戶看到了所有這些短缺，好吧，我的意思是——現在需求顯然要少得多。所以你會看到——我們逐年經歷過，就像過去幾年一樣，超過 40%。而今年，顯然，沒有那麼多，好吧，這意味著它們要少得多。我真的不能再稱之為季節性了。所以正如我所說，這還不是很清楚。好的。我的意思是 - 但正如伯尼所說，通常在季節性情況下，我們的價格會降低。

Our next question is from Rick Schafer of Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的里克·謝弗。

I just had a couple of questions if I could. The first one is if I could kind of maybe revisit auto for a second. I mean you mentioned power isolation module in your prepared remarks. And I don't know if you could give us a little bit more color there, kind of an update on how many customers are evaluating the product now, talk a little bit about if you could like the design win, timing, revenue timing, kind of expectation there. And is auto going to be the first to ramp and then data center and then more of the green stuff? Or how does it all kind of shake out, I guess, is what I'm asking.

如果可以的話，我只是有幾個問題。第一個是我是否可以再回顧一下汽車。我的意思是您在準備好的發言中提到了電源隔離模塊。我不知道你是否可以給我們更多的信息，比如現在有多少客戶正在評估該產品的最新信息，談談你是否喜歡設計獲勝、時機、收入時機，那裡有一種期待。汽車是否會首先發展起來，然後是數據中心，然後是更多的綠色產品？或者我想，這一切是如何擺脫的，這就是我要問的。

Yes, that product, we saw that delay a little bit, but we will introduced to our resampling and announced it was a delay due to the technical issues. And so as speaking now, we are -- have a -- resample it. And mostly in automotive and also data centers and same as we mentioned earlier is the silicon carbide and these are products that we start to sample.

是的，那個產品，我們看到了一點延遲，但我們將介紹我們的重新採樣，並宣布這是由於技術問題造成的延遲。就現在而言，我們正在重新採樣。主要用於汽車和數據中心，正如我們之前提到的，碳化矽是我們開始取樣的產品。

Okay. And then second question is you guys have almost a $2 billion power management business now, and I think modules are on track to be 10% of that or so this year. And I think that's up from basically nothing just a couple of years ago. So if this business sort has -- I believe, and Bernie, I'm sure will correct me, but in light of better margins, I think, the core average, and I think it's a 5x ASP multiplier. I'm just trying to get a sense of, Michael, how big do you envision this business becoming as a percent of mix going forward? And are there any particular end markets that are going to be favored, at least initially by the move into modules?

好的。第二個問題是，你們現在擁有近 20 億美元的電源管理業務，我認為今年模塊有望佔其中的 10% 左右。我認為這比幾年前幾乎什麼都沒有有所提高。因此，如果這種業務類型有——我相信，伯尼，我肯定會糾正我，但考慮到更好的利潤，我認為，核心平均數，我認為它是 5 倍的 ASP 乘數。我只是想了解一下，邁克爾，您預計這項業務未來將佔混合業務的比例有多大？是否有任何特定的終端市場將受到青睞，至少在進入模塊階段時是這樣？

Yes. Okay. I believe that's our [futures]. And when customers want to have a plug and play solutions and they want to less technically involve with power management, and that's the module solution is the way to go. And again, people doesn't want to buy ICs, design all these other components. Okay?

是的。好的。我相信這就是我們的[未來]。當客戶希望擁有即​​插即用解決方案並且希望減少電源管理的技術含量時，模塊解決方案就是最佳選擇。再說一次，人們不想購買 IC、設計所有其他組件。好的？

And initially, that's where we're ramping a lot of them, in the auto business, in the industrials and like in the industrial side and as well as telecom and -- or even semi equipment. And a lot of -- I can give -- go on and on. A lot of things to be mentioned. I mean -- but most of these products is not price sensitive, and they are not volume, consumer-related product. And so this is still at the very beginning. We have all this customer base, and we have all the new product coming out. And we will see the similar growth rate in the next few years.

最初，我們在汽車業務、工業等工業領域以及電信甚至半設備領域加大了投入。還有很多——我可以給出——繼續不斷。很多事情要提到。我的意思是——但這些產品中的大多數對價格不敏感，而且它們不是與消費者相關的批量產品。所以這還處於開始階段。我們擁有所有這些客戶群，並且我們有所有新產品問世。未來幾年我們將看到類似的增長率。

Our next question is from Jeremy Kwan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jeremy Kwan。

This is Jeremy on for Tore. I guess maybe a question on the comms business. It was down meaningfully as you guys expected, and you were probably one of the early ones to call out last quarter. I guess what's your sense of where things are now? Should we expect this business to kind of sort of bounce along at these levels in the second half before maybe picking up next year? And what are your customers telling you in terms of their expectations?

這是托雷的傑里米。我想也許是關於通訊業務的問題。正如你們所預期的那樣，它出現了有意義的下降，而且你們可能是上個季度最早提出這一要求的人之一。我猜你對現在的情況有什麼感覺？我們是否應該期望這項業務在下半年在這些水平上有所反彈，然後明年可能會有所回升？您的客戶告訴您他們的期望是什麼？

Yes. As you see, we didn't participate in 4Gs and 5Gs and other infrastructure business all new to us. And so you know what, the 5G hasn't really ramped up quickly yet. But our products in -- were designed in the last few years. We're just waiting for our customers to give us orders. And so far, it's not clear.

是的。正如你所看到的，我們沒有參與4G、5G等對我們來說都是新的基礎設施業務。所以你知道嗎，5G 還沒有真正快速發展。但我們的產品是在過去幾年裡設計的。我們只是等待客戶給我們下訂單。到目前為止，還不清楚。

Our next question is from William Stein of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

First, I'm hoping you can talk to us about channel inventory. When we look at your P&L, you had nearly 50% revenue growth last year. I think there's a lot of -- there's a pretty strong sense among investors that there might be some inventory still in the channel to be worked through. We'd love to hear any update or any measurement you have of that.

首先，我希望您能和我們談談渠道庫存的問題。當我們查看您的損益表時，您去年的收入增長了近 50%。我認為，很多投資者都有一種非常強烈的感覺，即渠道中可能仍有一些庫存需要處理。我們很想听聽您對此的任何更新或任何衡量。

Sure. So as far as what we observed in Q2 is that there was a meaningful decrease in channel inventories, both in terms of dollars and days. And the sort of phenomenon that we've seen has been a time delay between when the end customer places an order and when they want to do a pullback because of uncertainty with what end customer demand has been. So I can point to a couple of our end markets where that was very clear. But we believe right now that we're in a position to continue to bring -- to normalize channel inventories over the next 2 quarters.

當然。據我們在第二季度觀察到的情況，渠道庫存（無論是美元還是天數）都出現了顯著下降。我們看到的這種現像是，由於最終客戶需求的不確定性，最終客戶下訂單和他們想要撤回訂單之間存在時間延遲。因此，我可以指出我們的幾個終端市場，這一點非常明確。但我們相信，現在我們有能力在未來兩個季度繼續使渠道庫存正常化。

So not normalized yet, so -- is what it sounds like. So in the September guidance, I assume there's some expectation that sell-in will be lower than sell-through. Is that fair?

所以還沒有標準化，聽起來就是這樣。因此，在 9 月份的指導中，我認為人們預計賣出量將低於售出率。這公平嗎？

Yes. Again, going back to the comments about the visibility and predictability out past 90, 120 days. That's not just the demand that the new net orders that we're receiving, but also the strength of the sell-through is also a little harder to predict.

是的。再次回到關於過去 90、120 天的可見性和可預測性的評論。這不僅是我們收到的新淨訂單的需求，而且銷售量的強度也有點難以預測。

Our next question is from Matt Ramsay of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。

Michael, Bernie, can you guys hear me okay?

邁克爾、伯尼，你們能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Awesome. So I guess for my first question, Michael, we've -- you and I have had some conversations about you -- the company strategically wanting to sort of rebuild the consumer business as a percentage of revenue over time and get it back to a higher level than it's been now. I guess I'd like to revisit some of those conversations and just see if you had any comments about how you feel about supply-demand environment and the competitive environment in order to try to push to sort of reemphasize your company in certain parts strategically of that consumer segment.

驚人的。所以我想，對於我的第一個問題，邁克爾，我們——你和我已經就你進行了一些對話——公司戰略性地希望隨著時間的推移重建消費者業務佔收入的百分比，並將其恢復到比現在更高的水平。我想我想重新審視其中一些對話，看看您對供需環境和競爭環境的看法是否有任何評論，以便嘗試推動在戰略上重新強調您公司的某些部分該消費者群體。

Yes. So that's a good question. So we see some improvement, and -- but this at the beginning. And as we see our supply, the cost in -- went down dramatically. I mean as Bernie said, our inventory values -- I mean reflect inventory value now. And so in the past, MPS named the price killers. Okay? I mean it's a very simple game. Okay? We don't mind and we don't buy in the consumer segment and okay, we have a fight.

是的。這是一個好問題。所以我們看到了一些改進，而且——但這只是在一開始。正如我們所見，我們的供應成本大幅下降。我的意思是，正如伯尼所說，我們的庫存價值——我的意思是反映現在的庫存價值。因此，在過去，MPS 會指出價格殺手。好的？我的意思是這是一個非常簡單的遊戲。好的？我們不介意，我們也不在消費領域購買，好吧，我們有一場鬥爭。

And all the high gross margin is on the other segments, and it's all because of sheer our technology's strengths. We provide a much better and a much smaller size. And in the consumer segment in the last couple of years, we neglected that because we don't have enough revenues or enough capacities. And so it's not that difficult to go back to the same games that we played since IPO-ed.

所有高毛利率都來自其他細分市場，而這完全歸功於我們的技術優勢。我們提供更好、更小的尺寸。在過去幾年的消費領域，我們忽視了這一點，因為我們沒有足夠的收入或足夠的產能。因此，回到 IPO 以來我們玩的同樣的遊戲並不是那麼困難。

I think as my follow-up question, I wanted to really focus on the enterprise data segment just because that's where a large percentage of my investor questions come from. And I think there's 2 dynamics going on here, right, the strength of the AI business with your lead customer there and some softness in the CPU market that's well documented.

我認為作為我的後續問題，我想真正關注企業數據領域，因為這是我大部分投資者問題的來源。我認為這裡有兩個動態，對吧，你的主要客戶的人工智能業務的實力，以及 CPU 市場的一些疲軟，這是有據可查的。

And so the question is, really, what would you guys, I think, have built on books inventory to support ramps of all the customers in that space. So I guess the question is how quickly and what would the lead times be to respond to an uptick in demand. And do you have any visibility into the timing of a potential reacceleration of that segment? And how long is that visibility?

所以問題是，我認為你們會在圖書庫存上建立什麼來支持該領域所有客戶的增長。所以我想問題是響應需求上升的速度和交貨時間是多少。您是否了解該細分市場潛在重新加速的時間？這種可見性有多長？

Our visibility is, okay, probably is well documented. Okay. If you listen to all these major AIs, probably you'll see NPS. Okay? And you will see the NPS in the next few quarters of potential. And -- but I can talk to you about the technical issues. Okay? I think that the NPS is -- so far the solutions is far better than our competitor. So we -- for the next generation of AI processor, we're not working on it now. Okay. We're working a year ago, even 18 months ago.

我們的可見性可能是有據可查的。好的。如果您聽取所有這些主要人工智能的意見，您可能會看到 NPS。好的？您將看到 NPS 在未來幾個季度的潛力。而且——但我可以和你談談技術問題。好的？我認為，到目前為止，NPS 的解決方案比我們的競爭對手要好得多。因此，對於下一代人工智能處理器，我們現在還沒有進行研究。好的。我們一年前，甚至 18 個月前就開始工作了。

And so the relationship is strong and also for the technical is even more challenging. And the space is critical, and you had to radiate all the heat out. And for the next generations, power is even higher. And so we provide all these vertical solutions, and we pioneer with it. And you -- all the other solutions had to fit into the form factors. And the integrated solution is the only way to go.

因此，這種關係是牢固的，而且技術上也更具挑戰性。空間至關重要，您必須將所有熱量散發出去。對於下一代來說，權力甚至更高。因此，我們提供所有這些垂直解決方案，並以此為先導。而您——所有其他解決方案都必須適合外形尺寸。集成解決方案是唯一的出路。

And I think if I could just add to that, is also the breadth of the customer opportunities that we're engaged with. And over the course of the next 4 quarters, we're going to see multiple new customer applications launched initially with MPS. So yes, we have a very powerful initial position with one customer, but we expect to branch that out very quickly.

我想如果我可以補充一點的話，那就是我們所參與的客戶機會的廣度。在接下來的 4 個季度中，我們將看到多個最初通過 MPS 推出的新客戶應用程序。所以，是的，我們對一個客戶擁有非常強大的初始地位，但我們希望很快就能擴展這一地位。

It's multiple customers.

這是多個客戶。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question is from Hans Mosesmann of Rosenblatt.

我們的下一個問題來自羅森布拉特的漢斯·摩西曼。

Having a problem.

有問題。

Our next question is from Jeremy Kwan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jeremy Kwan。

Yes. I guess I wanted to ask about capacity. You guys have always been very ahead of the curve on long-term capacity and through up and down cycles. I was wondering how you're thinking about it in this environment and whether or not that may give you guys a competitive advantage in some of these applications that you're really targeting and also if you have a CapEx number for this quarter.

是的。我想我想問一下容量。你們在長期能力以及上下週期中始終處於領先地位。我想知道您在這種環境下如何看待它，以及這是否會給您在您真正瞄準的某些應用程序中帶來競爭優勢，以及您是否有本季度的資本支出數字。

Yes. As we stated earlier, many of our customers have requested move out of China. And now we kind of achieved more than 50%. We can have more than 50% of the capability out of China. And so the overall capacity, we don't have it. Problem now, okay, we have more inventories, and we want to sell more from our inventory and -- does that answer your questions?

是的。正如我們之前所說，我們的許多客戶都要求遷出中國。現在我們已經達到了 50% 以上。我們可以將50%以上的產能放在中國之外。所以就整體能力而言，我們沒有。現在的問題是，好吧，我們有更多的庫存，並且我們希望從我們的庫存中出售更多產品，這能回答您的問題嗎？

Yes. And I think that when you look at capacity today, it's really when this environment turns around and becomes more predictable. How are we positioned to service our customers a year and 2 years from now? And I think the investments that we're making both in terms of expanding capacity and diversifying it geographically, both on the front end and the back end, will pay very good dividends as far as customer satisfaction.

是的。我認為，當你看看今天的容量時，實際上是環境發生了轉變並變得更加可預測。一年和兩年後，我們如何定位為客戶提供服務？我認為，我們在前端和後端擴大產能和地域多元化方面所做的投資，將在客戶滿意度方面帶來非常好的紅利。

Our next question is from Chris Caso of Wolfe.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe 的 Chris Caso。

The first question is regarding order visibility. And I ask because, for the past several quarters, there really hasn't been any requirement for turns business going forward. Is that something that's changing going forward given some of the changes in the end markets? And what does that mean with regard to revenue visibility as we look out over the next few quarters?

第一個問題是關於訂單可見性。我問這個問題是因為，在過去的幾個季度裡，確實沒有任何對未來業務的要求。鑑於終端市場的一些變化，這種情況是否會發生變化？當我們展望未來幾個季度時，這對於收入可見性意味著什麼？

Sure. I think that Michael responded to this pretty nicely in that we saw some improvement in Q2 from Q1 as far as our net bookings, but it's still not to the degree that we historically enjoyed in either 2018 or 2020, just to pick 2 more recent years. In the past, we would have up to 90%, 95% of our next quarter's revenue in hand at the end of the preceding quarter. And so you're only relying on a fraction of a percent in order to -- of turns business in order to accomplish the numbers for that particular quarter. So we're seeing steady improvement, but we're still not at the level yet where we have that predictability.

當然。我認為邁克爾對此做出了很好的回應，因為我們看到第二季度的淨預訂量比第一季度有所改善，但仍然沒有達到我們在 2018 年或 2020 年曆史上享受的程度，僅選擇最近兩年。過去，上季度末我們手頭有下季度90%、95%的收入。因此，您只需依靠一小部分即可完成業務，從而完成該特定季度的數字。因此，我們看到了穩步的改善，但我們仍然沒有達到可預測的水平。

Got it. As a follow-up, I just had a follow-up question about supply, and I understand that supply is getting a bit easier out there. Historically, I think your ability to procure supply from place -- from your competitors has been a source of competitive advantage for Monolithic Power. How do you see the landscape going forward? I know you're bringing on some different foundry partners as you try to diversify outside of China. What do you think that means for both your access to wafers over the long term as well as the pricing? Do you think that competitive advantage remains?

知道了。作為後續行動，我剛剛有一個關於供應的後續問題，我知道供應變得更加容易了。從歷史上看，我認為從競爭對手那裡採購供應的能力一直是 Monolithic Power 競爭優勢的來源。您如何看待未來的發展？我知道當你們試圖在中國以外實現多元化時，你們正在引入一些不同的代工合作夥伴。您認為這對於您長期獲得晶圓以及定價意味著什麼？您認為競爭優勢仍然存在嗎？

Well, you mentioned about pricing. So okay, of course, all these material cost is much lower than -- or go back to normal, I should say, okay, I mean in -- as pre-pandemic. And so in terms of capacities, look, I didn't mention earlier, okay, we want to expand out of China. That's from our customers' request. And the other one is we want to expand it because just for our next couple of years' growth. And mostly, we are still in -- follow our long-term plan, and we invest. Okay. Of course, now we should slow down a little bit, I mean, in the next few quarters. And -- but over the over the long term, we should continue the course.

嗯，你提到了定價。所以好吧，當然，所有這些材料成本都比大流行前低得多，或者回到正常水平，我應該說，好吧，我的意思是在大流行前。因此，就產能而言，我之前沒有提到，好吧，我們希望擴展到中國以外的地區。這是我們客戶的要求。另一個是我們想要擴大它，因為只是為了我們未來幾年的增長。大多數情況下，我們仍然遵循我們的長期計劃，並進行投資。好的。當然，現在我們應該放慢一點，我的意思是，在接下來的幾個季度裡。而且——但從長遠來看，我們應該繼續這個方針。

(Operator Instructions) As there are no further questions, I would like to turn the webinar back over to Bernie.

（操作員說明）由於沒有其他問題，我想將網絡研討會轉回伯尼。

Thanks again, Gen. I'd like to thank you all for joining us for this webinar and look forward to talking to you again during our third quarter webinar, which will likely be at the end of October. Thank you, and have a nice day.

再次感謝將軍。我要感謝大家參加本次網絡研討會，並期待在我們的第三季度網絡研討會（可能會在 10 月底）期間再次與大家交談。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。