Movado Group Inc (MOV) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everybody, and welcome to the Movado Group, Inc. Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in full or in part without permission from the company.

大家好，歡迎參加摩凡陀集團 2024 年第二季度收益電話會議。謹此提醒，今天的通話內容正在錄音中，未經公司許可不得全部或部分複制。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Rachel Schacter of ICR. Please go ahead.

這次，我想把會議交給 ICR 的 Rachel Schacter。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. With me on the call is Efraim Grinberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Sallie DeMarsilis, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。大家，早安。與我一起參加電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Efraim Grinberg；以及執行副總裁、首席運營官兼首席財務官薩莉·德馬西利斯 (Sallie DeMarsilis)。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you the company's safe harbor language, which I'm sure you're all familiar with. The statements contained in this conference call which are not historical facts may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual future results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the company's filings with the SEC, which includes today's press release.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您公司的安全港語言，我相信你們都熟悉。本次電話會議中包含的非歷史事實的陳述可能被視為構成1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。由於一些因素，未來的實際結果可能與此類陳述中建議的結果存在重大差異。風險和不確定性，所有這些都在該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了描述，其中包括今天的新聞稿。

If any non-GAAP financial measure is used on this call, a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure to this non-GAAP financial measure will be provided as supplemental financial information in our press release.

如果本次電話會議使用任何非 GAAP 財務指標，則將在我們的新聞稿中提供與該非 GAAP 財務指標最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標作為補充財務信息。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Efraim Grinberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Movado Group.

現在我想將電話轉給摩凡陀集團董事長兼首席執行官 Efraim Grinberg。

Thank you, Rachel. Welcome to Movado Group's second quarter conference call. With me today is Sallie DeMarsilis, our COO and CFO. After I review the highlights of the quarter and our strategies and initiatives for the second half, Sallie will review our financial results and outlook in greater detail.

謝謝你，雷切爾。歡迎參加摩凡陀集團第二季度電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席運營官兼首席財務官薩莉·德馬西利斯 (Sallie DeMarsilis)。在我回顧本季度的亮點以及我們下半年的戰略和舉措後，薩莉將更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績和前景。

Our second quarter performance reflects our strong execution in a difficult operating environment with net sales within our expectation. The retail environment in our category remained challenging during the second quarter, particularly in the United States and Europe, our largest markets. While economic numbers have remained stable, discretionary purchases have been challenged by inflation and a greater allocation of consumers' resources to travel and dining.

我們第二季度的業績反映了我們在困難的經營環境中的強勁執行力，淨銷售額符合我們的預期。第二季度，我們類別的零售環境仍然充滿挑戰，特別是在我們最大的市場美國和歐洲。雖然經濟數據保持穩定，但可自由支配的購買受到通貨膨脹和消費者資源更多地分配給旅行和餐飲的挑戰。

Overall, we remain excited about our second half initiatives, especially our brand refresh at Movado, which I will discuss in greater detail in a moment. However, we are lowering our outlook for the balance of the year given the cautiousness of our retail partners, which is expected to moderate shipments, and continued economic uncertainty.

總體而言，我們對下半年的舉措仍然感到興奮，尤其是摩凡陀的品牌更新，我稍後將更詳細地討論這一點。然而，鑑於零售合作夥伴的謹慎態度（預計出貨量將有所放緩）以及持續的經濟不確定性，我們下調了對今年剩餘時間的展望。

Turning to a review of the quarter. Second quarter net sales declined by 12.3% from last year to $160.4 million, and our adjusted operating profit was $10.3 million versus $31.4 million last year. From a geographic perspective, sales declined by 12.4% in the U.S. driven by the wholesale channel and by 12.1% internationally.

轉向本季度的回顧。第二季度淨銷售額較去年下降 12.3% 至 1.604 億美元，調整後營業利潤為 1030 萬美元，而去年為 3140 萬美元。從地域角度來看，在批發渠道的推動下，美國銷售額下降了 12.4%，國際銷售額下降了 12.1%。

Our balance sheet remains extremely strong with almost $219 million in cash and no debt, allowing us to continue to invest in our brands and regions despite the economic challenges that remain in the U.S. and Europe. For the 6 months, the company generated positive cash flow from operations and a reduction of $33.6 million in inventory from the same period last year. Importantly, we will continue to be extremely disciplined in our expense management.

我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，擁有近 2.19 億美元的現金且沒有債務，這使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的品牌和地區，儘管美國和歐洲仍然面臨經濟挑戰。過去 6 個月，公司運營產生了正現金流，庫存比去年同期減少了 3360 萬美元。重要的是，我們將繼續嚴格執行費用管理。

As we had mentioned in our last conference call, we have begun embarking on a brand refresh for the Movado brand, and we are very pleased with the progress that we have made. From a product perspective, this fall, we will launch the most important collection of new products in our Bold collection since we first launched Bold over 10 years ago. Included in this introduction is the refresh of our best-selling Evolution family, Evolution 2.0. With new sharper price points, the collection now opens at $595.

正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我們已經開始對摩凡陀品牌進行品牌更新，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。從產品角度來看，今年秋天，我們將推出 Bold 系列自 10 多年前首次推出 Bold 以來最重要的新產品系列。本介紹中包括我們最暢銷的 Evolution 系列的更新版本：Evolution 2.0。隨著新的更高的價格點，該系列現在開盤價為 595 美元。

We are also refreshing the original Bold TR90 collections with a brand-new and exciting design in a variety of colorways. In addition, at the top end of our Bold assortment, we are launching a new titanium diver that will retail at $1,495.

我們還以多種色彩的全新、令人興奮的設計刷新了原來的 Bold TR90 系列。此外，在 Bold 系列的高端產品中，我們還推出了一款新型鈦金屬潛水錶，零售價為 1,495 美元。

In our Movado core collection, we just launched a museum classic Chronograph collection that has gotten off to a very strong start. As I mentioned earlier, we're introducing a total brand update for the Movado brand, which includes new marketing initiatives that we'll roll out over the next few quarters, beginning with the launch of our new brand-building campaign in September.

在我們的摩凡陀核心系列中，我們剛剛推出了博物館經典計時碼表系列，該系列已經有了一個非常強勁的開端。正如我之前提到的，我們正在對摩凡陀品牌進行全面的品牌更新，其中包括我們將在未來幾個季度推出的新營銷舉措，首先是在 9 月份推出新的品牌建設活動。

As part of this initiative, we will return to magazines for the first time in a number of years. In addition, we will launch an outdoor campaign in New York, Miami, Los Angeles and Chicago to complement our strong presence in digital campaigns.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們將多年來首次回歸雜誌。此外，我們還將在紐約、邁阿密、洛杉磯和芝加哥發起戶外活動，以補充我們在數字活動中的強大影響力。

During the fourth quarter, we will round out the campaign with a significant program in both linear and digital TV. This will be the most significant investment we have made behind our flagship Movado brand in several years. While recent history has demonstrated the significant shifting where consumers consume media, we believe that incorporating a broad media mix is important to our brand-building efforts as we have found that our customers engage with multiple media outlets. During the quarter, it is important to note that our movado.com business returned to growth.

在第四季度，我們將通過線性電視和數字電視方面的重要計劃來完善該活動。這將是我們多年來對摩凡陀旗艦品牌進行的最重大投資。雖然最近的歷史表明消費者消費媒體的方式發生了重大轉變，但我們認為，整合廣泛的媒體組合對於我們的品牌建設工作非常重要，因為我們發現我們的客戶與多種媒體機構互動。在本季度，值得注意的是我們的 movado.com 業務恢復了增長。

With a challenging retail environment in North America, we experienced a single-digit decline for both the quarter and year-to-date period in our outlet stores, where we're up against a strong spring from last year. We have also intentionally slowed down the growth of our digital outlet channel, where we believe we were opening with products that were too sharply priced. As always, we will take the right decisions for the long-term health of our brands.

由於北美零售環境充滿挑戰，我們的直銷店在本季度和年初至今均出現個位數下降，而我們的直銷店與去年相比表現強勁。我們還有意放慢了數字銷售渠道的增長速度，我們認為我們在該渠道推出的產品價格過高。一如既往，我們將為我們品牌的長期健康做出正確的決定。

In our fashion brands, we continue to deliver innovation with compelling value, and we'll support our licensed brand partners with strong regional marketing programs to build category awareness for our powerful licensed brand portfolio. For the fall, we have strong marketing initiatives planned in our key European markets, supporting both our watches and jewelry in digital venues, billboards and at the point of sale.

在我們的時尚品牌中，我們繼續提供具有引人注目的價值的創新，我們將通過強大的區域營銷計劃支持我們的授權品牌合作夥伴，為我們強大的授權品牌組合建立類別知名度。今年秋季，我們計劃在歐洲主要市場採取強有力的營銷舉措，在數字場所、廣告牌和銷售點支持我們的手錶和珠寶。

For the quarter, Europe remained challenging, while we saw strong results in India and the Middle East and a return to growth in China. In Tommy Hilfiger, we have seen a strong performance from our spring introductions, particularly our opening price points. For the fall, we're excited about the introduction of Clark for him and Lexi for her, both multifunction models that begin at $189.

本季度，歐洲仍然充滿挑戰，而印度和中東的業績強勁，中國恢復增長。在 Tommy Hilfiger，我們從春季推出的產品中看到了強勁的表現，尤其是我們的開盤價。秋季，我們很高興推出 Clark 男款和 Lexi 女款，這兩款多功能型號的起價均為 189 美元。

The HUGO BOSS brand continues to amplify its messaging, and we are continuing to partner with them on these efforts. We have seen a strong reception from consumers to our Troper and Gregor families. For the fall, we will continue to support these 2 leading families as well as introduce the new top Chronograph collection and our new Candor Automatic Sport Lux family opening at under $400.

HUGO BOSS 品牌繼續擴大其信息傳遞，我們將繼續與他們合作開展這些工作。我們看到消費者對 Troper 和 Gregor 家族的強烈歡迎。秋季，我們將繼續支持這兩個領先系列，並推出新的頂級計時碼表系列和新的 Candor 自動運動 Lux 系列，售價不到 400 美元。

For BOSS, we will amplify our messaging at the point of sale as well as supporting the brand with our digital marketing efforts. We are excited that for this holiday season, we will partner with the new BOSS brand ambassador, Suki Waterhouse.

對於 BOSS，我們將在銷售點放大我們的信息傳遞，並通過我們的數字營銷工作支持該品牌。我們很高興在這個假期，我們將與新的 BOSS 品牌大使 Suki Waterhouse 合作。

In Coach, we have seen success with our Cadie family. For the fall, we are introducing our new Elliot family both for him and her. Elliot is a strong collection, which opens at $125. We are continuing to partner with Jennifer Lopez on our Coach marketing efforts globally and with Curley Gao in China, where we have seen strong growth during the first half.

在 Coach，我們看到了 Cadie 家族的成功。今年秋天，我們將為他和她介紹我們的新埃利奧特家庭。 Elliot 是一個實力雄厚的系列，開盤價為 125 美元。我們將繼續與詹妮弗·洛佩茲 (Jennifer Lopez) 合作開展 Coach 的全球營銷工作，並與高利 (Curley Gang) 在中國合作，我們在上半年看到了強勁的增長。

Lacoste is performing very well at retail, where we have seen strong sell-through of our third generation of our Lacoste 12.12 collection inspired by the brand's iconic polos. We have also seen excellent results from our introduction of Lacoste jewelry for both men and women. This fall, we will introduce 12.12 automatic collection retailing at $255 and a new sporty diver family called [Spin].

Lacoste 在零售領域的表現非常出色，我們看到受該品牌標誌性 Polo 衫啟發的第三代 Lacoste 12.12 系列的銷量強勁。我們推出的 Lacoste 男士和女士珠寶也取得了出色的效果。今年秋天，我們將推出零售價為 255 美元的 12.12 自動腕錶系列，以及名為 [Spin​​] 的全新運動潛水錶系列。

In Calvin Klein, we are pleased with the progress for our second year of our introduction into the watch and jewelry category. This spring, we saw strong retail sales performance of our featured Sensation family with a uniquely shaped case design. For men, our leader has been Black, a multi-eye modern design. This fall, we will be supporting the brand with our new campaign in digital and outdoor, featuring model and fashion influencer, Lila Moss.

在 Calvin Klein，我們對進入手錶和珠寶類別的第二年所取得的進展感到高興。今年春天，我們看到了具有獨特形狀外殼設計的 Sensation 系列特色產品的強勁零售銷售業績。對於男士來說，我們的領導者是黑色，多眼現代設計。今年秋天，我們將通過由模特兼時尚影響者莉拉·莫斯 (Lila Moss) 主演的數字和戶外新活動來支持該品牌。

In Olivia Burton, we are well into our brand refresh across all consumer touch points in the U.K. and the U.S. with all new product families, new point of sale and packaging and a new marketing campaign. We remain confident we are heading in the right direction and are seeing strong results on our website and from our key retail partners.

在 Olivia Burton，我們正在英國和美國的所有消費者接觸點進行品牌更新，包括所有新產品系列、新銷售點和包裝以及新的營銷活動。我們仍然相信，我們正朝著正確的方向前進，並且在我們的網站和主要零售合作夥伴處看到了強勁的成果。

While the beginning of the year was very challenging, we knew that we were comping against a very strong first half last year and with easier compares in the second half. We remain committed to our strategy and believe in our brand-building efforts to drive increased customer awareness and yield results over the medium and long term. We are very excited around the plans that we have put in place for the second half of the year in our new product initiatives, sharper values across our brands and creative marketing programs.

雖然今年年初非常具有挑戰性，但我們知道我們去年上半年的表現非常強勁，而下半年的表現則更加輕鬆。我們仍然致力於我們的戰略，並相信我們的品牌建設努力能夠提高客戶意識並在中長期內取得成果。我們對今年下半年在新產品計劃、品牌價值觀和創意營銷計劃方面製定的計劃感到非常興奮。

While we are operating in a challenging retail environment in our largest markets, we feel that it is important to invest in supporting our brands and company for the long term. We're particularly excited about our brand-building efforts to support the Movado brand. We are willing to make this investment in order to ensure that our business will remain strong as the economic environment improves. Our strong balance sheet allows us to do that while continuing to return value to our shareholders through our dividend and share repurchase program. We will still operate prudently and diligently manage our operating expenses as we have done in the past.

雖然我們在最大的市場中面臨著充滿挑戰的零售環境，但我們認為，長期投資支持我們的品牌和公司非常重要。我們對支持摩凡陀品牌的品牌建設努力感到特別興奮。我們願意進行這項投資，以確保我們的業務隨著經濟環境的改善而保持強勁。我們強大的資產負債表使我們能夠做到這一點，同時繼續通過股息和股票回購計劃向股東回報價值。我們仍將一如既往，審慎經營，勤勉管理運營費用。

I would now like to turn the call over to Sallie.

我現在想把電話轉給莎莉。

Thank you, Efraim, and good morning, everyone. For today's call, I will review our financial results for the second quarter and year-to-date period of fiscal 2024, and then I will provide an update on our outlook for the year. My comments today will focus on adjusted results. Please refer to the description of the special items included in our results for the second quarter and year-to-date period of fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2023 and our press release issued earlier today, which also includes the reconciliation table of GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

謝謝你，埃夫拉伊姆，大家早上好。在今天的電話會議中，我將回顧 2024 財年第二季度和年初至今的財務業績，然後提供我們今年展望的最新信息。我今天的評論將集中於調整後的結果。請參閱我們對 2024 財年和 2023 財年第二季度和年初至今業績中包含的特殊項目的描述以及我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿，其中還包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調節表措施。

Overall, our performance for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 was within the lower end of the range provided on our previous earnings call as our business was negatively impacted by a challenging retail environment and lapping a strong performance last year. While down year-over-year, we maintained an extremely strong balance sheet.

總體而言，我們 2024 財年第二季度的業績處於上次財報電話會議上提供的範圍的下限內，因為我們的業務受到充滿挑戰的零售環境的負面影響，並超越了去年的強勁業績。雖然同比下降，但我們保持了極其強勁的資產負債表。

Turning to a review of the quarter. Sales were $160.4 million as compared to $182.8 million last year, a decrease of 12.3%. In constant dollars, the decrease in net sales was 13.8%. Net sales decreased across owned brands, licensed brands and company stores.

轉向本季度的回顧。銷售額為 1.604 億美元，較去年的 1.828 億美元下降 12.3%。按不變美元計算，淨銷售額下降 13.8%。自有品牌、授權品牌和公司商店的淨銷售額均有所下降。

By geography, U.S. net sales decreased 12.4% as compared to the second quarter of last year. International net sales decreased 12.1%. On a constant currency basis, international net sales decreased 14.9% with continued softening in our largest international market, Europe, partially offset by strong performances in certain markets, such as the Middle East, India and travel retail.

按地區劃分，美國淨銷售額較去年第二季度下降 12.4%。國際淨銷售額下降 12.1%。按固定匯率計算，國際淨銷售額下降 14.9%，原因是我們最大的國際市場歐洲持續疲軟，但部分被中東、印度和旅遊零售等某些市場的強勁表現所抵消。

Gross profit as a percent of sales was 55.7% compared to 58.5% in the second quarter of last year. The decrease in gross margin as compared to the exceptionally high gross margin results of the same period last year was anticipated and was primarily driven by the deleverage of higher costs, higher fixed costs over lower sales, unfavorable channel and product mix and the unfavorable impact of foreign currency exchange rates.

毛利潤佔銷售額的百分比為 55.7%，而去年第二季度為 58.5%。與去年同期異常高的毛利率結果相比，毛利率的下降是預期的，主要是由於去槓桿化成本上升、固定成本上升超過銷售額下降、不利的渠道和產品結構以及外幣匯率。

The unfavorable channel and product mix from the prior year period reflected sales shift from our relatively higher-margin brands to our relatively lower-margin brands as well as lower sales in our higher-margin channels. We expect this tough comparison to continue into the third quarter when we're up against the same period of last year.

上年同期不利的渠道和產品組合反映出銷售從利潤率相對較高的品牌轉向利潤率相對較低的品牌，以及利潤率較高的渠道銷售額下降。我們預計這種艱難的比較將持續到第三季度，屆時我們將與去年同期進行比較。

Operating expenses were $79 million compared to $75.6 million for the same period of last year. The increase was driven by an increase in payroll-related costs, partially offset by lower marketing expenses and a decrease in performance-based compensation.

運營費用為 7,900 萬美元，去年同期為 7,560 萬美元。這一增長是由工資相關成本的增加推動的，但部分被營銷費用的減少和基於績效的薪酬的減少所抵消。

As a result of the reduction in sales and gross margin, operating income decreased to $10.3 million as compared to $31.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2023. We recorded approximately $1.4 million of other nonoperating income in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, which is primarily comprised of interest earned on our global cash position.

由於銷售額和毛利率下降，營業收入下降至 1030 萬美元，而 2023 財年第二季度為 3140 萬美元。我們在 2024 財年第二季度記錄了約 140 萬美元的其他非營業收入，即主要包括我們的全球現金頭寸賺取的利息。

We reported income tax expense of $3 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 as compared to $6.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2023. Net income in the second quarter was $8.5 million or $0.38 per diluted share as compared to $24.6 million or $1.07 per diluted share in the year ago period.

我們報告2024 財年第二季度的所得稅費用為300 萬美元，而2023 財年第二季度的所得稅費用為660 萬美元。第二季度的淨利潤為850 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益0.38 美元，而第二季度淨利潤為2460 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益1.07 美元。去年同期的稀釋份額。

Now turning to our year-to-date results. Sales for the 6-month period ended July 31, 2023, were $305.3 million as compared to $346.2 million last year. Total net sales decreased 11.8% as compared to the 6-month period of fiscal 2023. In constant dollars, the decrease in net sales was 12.1%. International net sales decreased 10.2% or 10.6% on a constant currency basis, and U.S. net sales declined by 13.9%.

現在轉向我們今年迄今為止的結果。截至 2023 年 7 月 31 日的 6 個月期間銷售額為 3.053 億美元，而去年為 3.462 億美元。與 2023 財年 6 個月相比，淨銷售額總額下降了 11.8%。以不變美元計算，淨銷售額下降了 12.1%。國際淨銷售額下降 10.2%，按固定匯率計算下降 10.6%，美國淨銷售額下降 13.9%。

Gross profit was $171.3 million or 56.1% of sales as compared to $203.6 million or 58.8% of sales last year. The decrease in gross margin rate for the first 6 months was primarily due to unfavorable channel and product mix, the unfavorable impact of foreign currency exchange rates and a deleverage of higher fixed costs over lower sales. This was partially offset by decreased shipping costs.

毛利潤為 1.713 億美元，佔銷售額的 56.1%，而去年為 2.036 億美元，佔銷售額的 58.8%。前6個月毛利率下降主要是由於渠道和產品結構不利、匯率不利影響以及固定成本上升對銷售額下降的去槓桿影響。這被運輸成本下降部分抵消。

For the 6 months ended July 31, 2023, operating income was $21.9 million compared to $57.4 million in fiscal 2023. We recorded approximately $2.3 million of other nonoperating income in the 6-month period of fiscal 2024, which is primarily comprised of interest earned on our global cash position. Net income was $18.2 million or $0.80 per diluted share as compared to $43.7 million or $1.89 per diluted share in the year ago period.

截至2023 年7 月31 日的6 個月，營業收入為2190 萬美元，而2023 財年為5740 萬美元。我們在2024 財年的6 個月期間記錄了約230 萬美元的其他非營業收入，其中主要包括我們的全球現金狀況。淨利潤為 1820 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.80 美元，而去年同期淨利潤為 4370 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.89 美元。

Now turning to our balance sheet. Cash at the end of the second quarter was $218.9 million as compared to $203.1 million at the same period of last year. During the first 6 months of fiscal 2024, we had positive cash flow from operations of $9.2 million.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。第二季度末現金為 2.189 億美元，去年同期為 2.031 億美元。在 2024 財年的前 6 個月，我們的運營現金流為 920 萬美元。

Accounts receivables was $95.8 million, down $4.9 million from the same period of last year, primarily due to the decrease in sales. Inventory at the end of the quarter was down $33.6 million or 15.6%, although the same period of last year due to the timing of repeat and is aligned with sales.

應收賬款為9580萬美元，比去年同期減少490萬美元，主要是由於銷售額下降。本季度末的庫存下降了 3,360 萬美元，即 15.6%，但由於時間重複，與去年同期相比與銷售情況一致。

In the first 6 months of fiscal 2024, we repurchased approximately 16,000 shares under our share repurchase program. $20.6 million remain available under that program. Capital expenditures for the 6-month period were $4.6 million, and depreciation and amortization expense was $5 million, which included $1.3 million related to the amortization of acquired intangible assets of Olivia Burton and MVMT.

在 2024 財年的前 6 個月，我們根據股票回購計劃回購了約 16,000 股股票。該計劃下仍有 2,060 萬美元可供使用。 6 個月期間的資本支出為 460 萬美元，折舊和攤銷費用為 500 萬美元，其中包括與 Olivia Burton 和 MVMT 收購的無形資產攤銷相關的 130 萬美元。

Now I would like to discuss our outlook. As Efraim mentioned, we are operating in a challenging retail environment with inflation continuing to affect the purchases made by consumers of discretionary products, especially in our key markets, the United States and Europe.

現在我想談談我們的展望。正如埃夫拉伊姆提到的，我們正處於充滿挑戰的零售環境中，通貨膨脹繼續影響消費者對非必需品的購買，特別是在我們的主要市場美國和歐洲。

Our net sales are currently expected to be in a range of $690 million to $700 million, resulting in our second half sales being down low to mid-single digits as compared to last year. This is an improvement from the first half decline of 11.8%. We expect gross profit of approximately 55% of sales for the year.

目前，我們的淨銷售額預計在 6.9 億美元至 7 億美元之間，導致我們下半年的銷售額與去年相比下降至中個位數。這比上半年 11.8% 的下降有所改善。我們預計今年毛利潤約為銷售額的55%。

As previously discussed, we are planning to prudently invest in our brand-building initiatives while we continue to tightly manage our discretionary spending. And therefore, we expect operating income in a range of $62.5 million to $65 million. Based on our global footprint and our estimated jurisdictional taxable income, we anticipate a 23% effective tax rate with an expected range of earnings of $2.15 to $2.25 per diluted share.

如前所述，我們計劃謹慎投資於我們的品牌建設計劃，同時繼續嚴格管理我們的可自由支配支出。因此，我們預計營業收入在 6250 萬美元至 6500 萬美元之間。根據我們的全球足跡和我們估計的司法管轄區應稅收入，我們預計有效稅率為 23%，稀釋後每股收益的預期範圍為 2.15 美元至 2.25 美元。

I would now like to open the call up for questions.

我現在想打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Oliver Chen with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Oliver Chen 和 TD Cowen 的線路。

You called out the U.S. consumer as well as just thinking about the consumer and weakness, yet the results were in line with your expectations. Would love your thoughts on what's changed since the past quarter and what you're seeing in the environment. Also Efraim, on the product innovation, it sounds like you're really focused on opening price points. Would love your thoughts on that and what you need to do. Those are some first questions, and I have some follow-ups.

你喊出了美國消費者的名字，也只考慮了消費者和弱點，但結果卻符合你的預期。希望您了解上個季度以來發生的變化以及您在環境中看到的情況。另外，Efraim，在產品創新方面，聽起來您確實專注於開放價格點。希望您對此有何想法以及您需要做什麼。這些是一些第一個問題，我還有一些後續問題。

Yes. I think -- look, I think our feeling throughout the year is that the consumer has been challenged. And I think with higher interest rates, inflation, you're seeing an increase of challenges to the consumer on discretionary purchases. And so we are being cautious in terms of our expectations on the consumer returning on discretionary purchases.

是的。我認為——看，我認為我們全年的感覺是消費者受到了挑戰。我認為，隨著利率和通貨膨脹的上升，消費者在可自由支配的購買方面面臨的挑戰越來越大。因此，我們對消費者自行購買商品的退貨預期持謹慎態度。

We also -- our experience is that as economic growth slows, consumers become more value-oriented, and our experience in the past has been that we've been successful with entry-level price points but really strong innovation along those platforms. So -- and it's something that we're focused on both in the United States and globally as well.

我們的經驗是，隨著經濟增長放緩，消費者變得更加以價值為導向，而我們過去的經驗是，我們在入門級價格點上取得了成功，但在這些平台上擁有真正強大的創新。所以，這是我們在美國和全球範圍內都關注的事情。

Okay. And specific to channels, Efraim, what are you seeing in U.S. wholesale? And how might you contrast also relative to outlet? And then on the international, are there trends that you want to call out between north and south or regions that are stronger versus weaker?

好的。具體到渠道，Efraim，您在美國批發中看到了什麼？相對於出口，您又如何進行對比？那麼在國際上，您想指出南北之間或地區之間的強弱趨勢嗎？

So I'll start with the international first. I think Europe for us is running more consistent to the U.S. market. And so it's been a little more challenging than the rest of our international footprint. So we're seeing very strong growth in India, which was a subsidiary that we launched a year ago. We're seeing continued strong results in the Middle East and continued strong sell-through in Latin America and Mexico. So those markets are going very well for us.

所以我首先從國際開始。我認為歐洲對我們來說與美國市場的運行更加一致。因此，這比我們的其他國際足跡更具挑戰性。因此，我們在印度看到了非常強勁的增長，這是我們一年前成立的子公司。我們看到中東地區的業績持續強勁，拉丁美洲和墨西哥的銷售量持續強勁。所以這些市場對我們來說進展順利。

China is a small market for us, but it's returned to growth. We continue to invest in China in our most important licensed brands in the market as well as behind the Movado brand.

中國對我們來說是一個小市場，但它已經恢復增長。我們繼續在中國投資市場上​​最重要的授權品牌以及摩凡陀品牌。

And then on the U.S. side, I think wholesale has been a little more challenging. And then that's true in Europe as well, where retailers are -- and as they should be, are being cautious and focused on managing their inventories very prudently.

然後在美國方面，我認為批發更具挑戰性。在歐洲也是如此，那裡的零售商正在——而且他們應該如此——保持謹慎，並專注於非常謹慎地管理庫存。

I think that we have really strong marketing initiatives both in -- across our licensed brand portfolio. And I'm really excited about what we're doing to reenergize and support the Movado brand, and we will launch that campaign in September as well as a complete brand refresh of the Movado website at that time.

我認為我們在我們的授權品牌組合中都有非常強大的營銷舉措。我對我們為重振和支持摩凡陀品牌所做的努力感到非常興奮，我們將在 9 月份啟動該活動，並屆時對摩凡陀網站進行全面的品牌更新。

Efraim, on refreshing Movado brand, what are you thinking it needs most? What's your hypothesis there? And longer term, how -- what will be the path to return to revenue growth? What will be the keys there, in your mind? And any thoughts around timing? We will see likely easier compares.

Efraim，對於更新摩凡陀品牌，您認為它最需要的是什麼？你的假設是什麼？從長遠來看，恢復收入增長的途徑是什麼？您心目中的鑰匙是什麼？關於時間安排有什麼想法嗎？我們會看到可能更容易進行比較。

Sure. I think returning to really reenergize on the marketing front of brand with investments in media will prove to be very successful for the Movado brand. And we have moderated those investments over the last few years. And as I said, we're upping that quotient for this holiday season and really for the foreseeable future.

當然。我認為，通過對媒體的投資，重返品牌營銷前沿，真正重新註入活力，對於摩凡陀品牌來說將是非常成功的。過去幾年我們已經調整了這些投資。正如我所說，我們正在提高這個假期的商數，並且在可預見的未來確實如此。

But I'm really excited by the product assortment. It's been as good as we've had on the product front in the Movado brand. And we're really excited about the total brand refresh that we're doing. And again, it's an evolution. It's not a revolution of the brand. But having a robust marketing mix and media plan will really help support the brand for the holiday season and into the future.

但我對產品種類感到非常興奮。它與我們在摩凡陀品牌的產品方面所擁有的一樣好。我們對我們正在進行的整體品牌更新感到非常興奮。再說一次，這是一種演變。這不是品牌的革命。但擁有強大的營銷組合和媒體計劃將真正有助於支持該品牌在節日季和未來的發展。

Okay. And Sallie, as we model 3Q versus 4Q, could you help us understand if there's any comparisons that we should be aware of? And also, will we just expect a less negative 4Q? Would love your thoughts on the revenue line as well as some of the key gross margin headwinds as well as tailwinds. And also inventory relative to sales growth, how do you see that evolve for the back half?

好的。 Sallie，當我們對第三季度和第四季度進行建模時，您能否幫助我們了解是否有任何我們應該注意的比較？此外，我們是否會期望第四季度的負面影響有所減輕？希望您對收入線以及一些關鍵的毛利率逆風和順風有什麼看法。還有相對於銷售增長的庫存，您如何看待下半年的變化？

Okay. So I'm going to start backwards just so I don't miss any of your questions. On inventory, we were -- the timing between last year's purchases and this year's purchases were very different. So we were able to moderate our incoming purchases this year, and you can see we're much better aligned with inventory at this point.

好的。所以我將從倒退開始，這樣我就不會錯過你們的任何問題。在庫存方面，我們去年的採購和今年的採購時間非常不同。因此，我們今年能夠減少進貨採購，您可以看到我們目前與庫存的配合要好得多。

We will -- as we head into the holiday season, it is -- we are still very much a wholesale business. So we will be back in the inventory business in the third quarter to support our channels, but we will have them be more -- all of our purchases will be more in line with these forecasts straight through to the year-end. So we will keep an eye on it. There are lead times that we have to live with, but definitely more in line with where our sales plans are.

當我們進入假期時，我們仍然是一家批發企業。因此，我們將在第三季度重返庫存業務，以支持我們的渠道，但我們將擁有更多——直到年底，我們所有的採購都將更加符合這些預測。所以我們會密切關注。我們必須接受一些交貨時間，但絕對更符合我們的銷售計劃。

As far as the 2 quarters, they're both very important to us, third and fourth quarter. There generally is a little bit of a balance between those 2, third and fourth quarter. Third is obviously very important to us as we fulfill our wholesale commitments; and fourth quarter, obviously, more of a direct-to-consumer. So it should be more balanced with our normal cadence through the quarters. We should see an improving comparison against last year, though, in both third and fourth quarter as we get towards the end of the year.

就兩個季度而言，第三季度和第四季度對我們來說都非常重要。一般而言，第二季度、第三季度和第四季度之間存在一些平衡。第三，顯然對我們來說非常重要，因為我們履行了批發承諾；顯然，第四季度更多的是直接面向消費者。所以它應該與我們整個季度的正常節奏更加平衡。不過，隨著年底的臨近，我們應該會看到第三季度和第四季度與去年相比有所改善。

And as far as margin, we're going to see really the same comparison challenges to last year. Last year was an exceptionally high gross margin year. So this year, when we talk about things like our mix or our deleveraging of cost against a lower net sales number is going to continue in the next 2 quarters. So we should see something very similar to what we've experienced in the first half of this year.

就利潤率而言，我們將看到與去年相同的比較挑戰。去年是毛利率異常高的一年。因此，今年，當我們談論我們的組合或我們針對較低的淨銷售額進行去槓桿化成本之類的事情時，將在接下來的兩個季度繼續進行。因此，我們應該會看到與今年上半年經歷的情況非常相似的情況。

Okay. That's really helpful. And on holiday, Efraim and Sallie, what do you see happening in terms of holiday planning and key thoughts around the consumer as well as like is inventory tightening going to be ongoing at your wholesale partners?

好的。這真的很有幫助。在假期中，Efraim 和 Sallie，您認為假期計劃和圍繞消費者的關鍵想法會發生什麼，以及您的批發合作夥伴是否會持續收緊庫存？

I think for holiday, as I've said for a long time, Christmas always comes on December 25, Hanukkah comes sometime before that as well as other holidays. So people do buy for those holidays. And our retailers are in the business to support their consumers. And I think they will buy appropriately given the environment for holiday.

我認為對於假期，正如我長期以來所說的那樣，聖誕節總是在 12 月 25 日到來，光明節以及其他假期也在此之前的某個時間到來。所以人們確實會在假期裡購物。我們的零售商致力於支持消費者。我認為考慮到假期的環境，他們會適當購買。

I do expect that holiday, we are comparing against some weaker numbers last year during the holiday period. So I think things will start to fall into balance. And -- but there remains a level of uncertainty out there with interest rates, with inflation, with the political environment as well. So -- but I think you always have a stronger holiday in terms of sell-through in Q4 than in Q3. So I would expect that -- I definitely expect that to occur again.

我確實預計在這個假期，我們正在與去年假期期間的一些較弱的數字進行比較。所以我認為事情將會開始趨於平衡。而且——但利率、通脹和政治環境仍然存在一定程度的不確定性。所以，但我認為第四季度的銷售量總是比第三季度強勁。所以我預計——我絕對預計這種情況會再次發生。

Okay. And on -- this was an earlier question, a follow-up to a follow-up. The average unit retail, as you think about your portfolio, should we assume that the overall AUR may go down or will hold and be offset by transactions? How does it sum up for the bottom line on some of these changes you're making? That would helpful as well.

好的。這是一個較早的問題，是一個後續問題的後續問題。當您考慮您的投資組合時，平均單位零售量是否應該假設整體 AUR 可能會下降或將保持不變並被交易所抵消？您所做的一些改變的底線是怎樣總結的？這也會有幫助。

So I think what we're doing is we're backfilling some entry-level price points that we have vacated. But I think overall, we will see a flattish AUR over the next year. So I'm not -- I think that it's not -- a lot of different -- it's not a big bulk of our offering, but it enables consumers who are more challenged to enter the brand at accessible price points.

所以我認為我們正在做的是回填一些我們已經騰出的入門級價格點。但我認為總體而言，明年我們將看到 AUR 持平。所以我不是——我認為這不是——有很多不同——它不是我們產品的很大一部分，但它使那些面臨更大挑戰的消費者能夠以可承受的價格進入該品牌。

And last question, you have a really strong balance sheet. It's always been a hallmark of your financial perspective. Just thoughts on cash and how you're thinking about free cash flow generation and return to shareholders?

最後一個問題，您的資產負債表非常強勁。它一直是您財務觀點的標誌。只是關於現金的想法以及您如何考慮自由現金流的產生和股東回報？

So obviously, our dividend continues to remain very important to us. And so that is part of our balance sheet as well as share repurchases. And -- but I think it is that balance sheet that allows us to feel comfortable to focus on medium- and long-term initiatives when times become more challenging that yield overall long-term value to shareholders.

顯然，我們的股息對我們來說仍然非常重要。這是我們資產負債表和股票回購的一部分。但我認為，正是資產負債表讓我們在形勢變得更具挑戰性時能夠安心地專注於中長期計劃，從而為股東帶來整體長期價值。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回管理層以供結束髮言。

Okay. I'd like to thank all of you for participating with us today. And those in the United States, I wish you a very good upcoming holiday weekend and the end of the summer. Thank you very much, and we look forward to talking to you in our third quarter conference call.

好的。我要感謝大家今天參與我們的活動。對於在美國的人們，我祝愿你們在即將到來的周末假期和暑假結束時過得愉快。非常感謝您，我們期待在第三季度的電話會議上與您交談。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你一天剩下的時間。