Movado Group Inc (MOV) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everybody, and welcome to the Movado Group, Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the company. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Rachel Schacter of ICR. Please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎來到 Movado Group, Inc. 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音中,未經公司許可不得全部或部分複制。此時,我想將會議轉交給 ICR 的 Rachel Schacter。請繼續。

  • Rachel Schacter - SVP

    Rachel Schacter - SVP

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. With me on the call is Efraim Grinberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Sallie DeMarsilis, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to remind you of the company's safe harbor language, which I'm sure you're all familiar with. The statements contained in this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual future results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the company's filings with the SEC, which includes today's press release. If any non-GAAP financial measure is used on this call, a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure to this non-GAAP financial measure will be provided as supplemental financial information in our press release. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Efraim Grinberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Movado Group.

    謝謝你。大家,早安。與我通話的是董事長兼首席執行官 Efraim Grinberg;執行副總裁、首席運營官兼首席財務官 Sallie DeMarsilis。在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家公司的安全港語言,我相信你們都很熟悉。本次電話會議中包含的陳述並非歷史事實,可被視為構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。由於以下原因,未來的實際結果可能與此類陳述中建議的結果存在重大差異許多風險和不確定性,所有這些都在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了描述,其中包括今天的新聞稿。如果在本次電話會議中使用任何非 GAAP 財務指標,我們將在我們的新聞稿中提供與該非 GAAP 財務指標最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的介紹,作為補充財務信息。現在我想把電話轉給摩凡陀集團董事長兼首席執行官 Efraim Grinberg。

  • Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

    Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Rachel. I would like to welcome you to Movado Group's third quarter conference call. With me today is Sallie Sallie DeMarsilis, our Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer. I will first review the highlights of the quarter and the current operating environment. Sallie will then review our financial results in greater detail as well as our outlook for the balance of the year. We would then be glad to answer any questions you might have. Since we last spoke to you in August, we have seen a substantial change in the operating environment. Globally, we have experienced high inflation and the unfavorable currency rates and unfavorable currency rates, both of which further intensified during the third quarter. In addition, we have seen European and American consumers begin to reduce their purchases of discretionary items as inflation has taken its toll on their buying power. Within this environment, our teams have done an excellent job of executing against our strategy and managing our expenses to deliver strong results, particularly on a currency-adjusted basis, despite the prevailing headwinds.

    謝謝你,雷切爾。歡迎您參加摩凡陀集團第三季度電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席運營官兼首席財務官 Sallie Sallie DeMarsilis。我將首先回顧本季度的亮點和當前的運營環境。然後,Sallie 將更詳細地審查我們的財務業績以及我們對今年餘下時間的展望。我們將很樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。自從我們上次在 8 月份與您交談以來,我們已經看到運營環境發生了重大變化。在全球範圍內,我們經歷了高通脹以及不利的貨幣匯率和不利的貨幣匯率,這兩種情況在第三季度進一步加劇。此外,我們看到歐洲和美國的消費者開始減少他們對非必需品的購買,因為通貨膨脹已經影響了他們的購買力。在這種環境下,我們的團隊在執行我們的戰略和管理我們的費用方面做得非常出色,以取得強勁的成果,特別是在貨幣調整的基礎上,儘管普遍存在逆風。

  • For the third quarter, our sales were $211.4 million versus $217.7 million last year. On a currency-adjusted basis, our sales actually grew by 3.4%. We delivered strong gross margins of 57.3% despite the currency headwinds. Adjusted operating profit declined by 7.8% to $38.9 million. However, would have increased on a currency-adjusted basis. Our adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $1.31. Additionally, our balance sheet remains strong with $187 million in cash and no debt at quarter end, while returning $51.8 million to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since the beginning of the year. In the United States and Europe, we have seen inflation of everyday goods and higher energy prices begin to take a greater toll on consumers' purchasing power, and we expect that trend to continue for the balance of this year and into next year. While our U.S. sales declined by 5.9% as consumers and retailers pulled back on their purchases, our international sales grew by 10.2% on a constant currency basis. Our international sales are now almost 2x larger than our U.S. wholesale business. In our outlet business, which includes both our brick-and-mortar businesses and our digital format, we saw a mid-single-digit increase in sales.

    第三季度,我們的銷售額為 2.114 億美元,而去年同期為 2.177 億美元。經貨幣調整後,我們的銷售額實際增長了 3.4%。儘管匯率不利,我們仍實現了 57.3% 的強勁毛利率。調整後營業利潤下降 7.8% 至 3,890 萬美元。但是,在貨幣調整的基礎上會有所增加。我們本季度調整後的每股收益為 1.31 美元。此外,我們的資產負債表保持強勁,在季度末擁有 1.87 億美元的現金和無債務,同時自年初以來通過股票回購和股息向我們的股東返還了 5180 萬美元。在美國和歐洲,我們已經看到日常用品的通貨膨脹和更高的能源價格開始對消費者的購買力造成更大的影響,我們預計這一趨勢將在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續。由於消費者和零售商減少採購,我們在美國的銷售額下降了 5.9%,但按固定匯率計算,我們的國際銷售額增長了 10.2%。我們的國際銷售額現在幾乎是美國批發業務的 2 倍。在我們的奧特萊斯業務中,包括我們的實體業務和我們的數字格式,我們看到銷售額實現了中等個位數的增長。

  • Given prevailing currency rates, economic challenges in Europe, certain in the uncertain retail environment and continued challenges faced by consumers, we are approaching the fourth quarter with caution. In addition, last year was a particularly strong holiday season with less competition from travel and dining. The consumer was in fantastic shape, and they were being urged to buy early or take the risk that retailers would run out of best-selling products. Today, the environment is completely different. As we enter the important holiday season, we will continue to support our brands with strong marketing campaigns to make sure that we maximize sell-through for our watches and jewelry during the most important selling period of the year. In Movado, we are excited to introduce our new Alpha collection, which represents the Pinnacle product in Movado's assortment. Alpha is inspired by the rich heritage of the Movado brand and incorporates luxury features, including ceramic bezels and Movado automatic chronograph movement. As part of our elevation strategy, we will continue to expand our most aspirational product offerings, particularly in Swiss-made mechanical movements. To support our bold assortment, we have also introduced our first ball automatic versions in bold Fusion automatic.

    鑑於現行匯率、歐洲的經濟挑戰、不確定的零售環境以及消費者面臨的持續挑戰,我們謹慎地接近第四季度。此外,去年是一個特別強勁的假期,來自旅遊和餐飲的競爭較少。消費者的狀況非常好,他們被敦促儘早購買,否則就要冒零售商賣完暢銷產品的風險。今天,環境完全不同了。隨著我們進入重要的假日季節,我們將繼續通過強有力的營銷活動來支持我們的品牌,以確保我們在一年中最重要的銷售期間最大限度地提高手錶和珠寶的銷量。在摩凡陀,我們很高興推出我們新的 Alpha 系列,它代表了摩凡陀系列中的 Pinnacle 產品。 Alpha 的靈感來自摩凡陀品牌的豐富傳統,並融入了奢華的功能,包括陶瓷表圈和摩凡陀自動計時碼表機芯。作為我們提升戰略的一部分,我們將繼續擴大我們最理想的產品系列,尤其是瑞士製造的機械機芯。為了支持我們大膽的分類,我們還推出了首款採用大膽 Fusion 自動機芯的球型自動機芯。

  • We're excited about our holiday television campaign that we launched just last week featuring our BOLD Verso watches for him and her. This campaign will be complemented with our first major influencer campaign that was launched last month and will run through the holiday season. On the digital front, our movado.com website continues to play a significant role in the ongoing development of the Movado brand, even as consumers return to brick-and-mortar locations. For the first 9 months of this year, our movado.com sales were down 14%, but up 56% ahead of 2 years ago. In our licensed brands, we delivered 11.6% sales growth on a constant currency basis against the background of slowing economies in our largest markets in Europe. We continue to offer compelling innovation across our brand portfolio, and we are driving demand, both online and in-store. We continue to see strong results in Mexico, Brazil, and the Middle East, and India as well. In China, we are still seeing the impact of the ongoing pandemic closures. In Tommy Hilfiger, we continue to drive results with regional influencers and associations in key markets. We received a strong reception on our advertised family miles and with a vintage-inspired multi-eye blue dial on a mesh bracelet and Luca a 50-millimeter sport-inspired family.

    我們對上周剛剛推出的假日電視廣告感到非常興奮,其中展示了我們為他和她設計的 BOLD Verso 手錶。該活動將與我們上個月啟動的第一個主要影響者活動相輔相成,並將貫穿整個假期。在數字方面,我們的 movado.com 網站繼續在 Movado 品牌的持續發展中發揮重要作用,即使消費者返回實體店也是如此。今年前 9 個月,我們的 movado.com 銷售額下降了 14%,但比 2 年前增長了 56%。在我們最大的歐洲市場經濟放緩的背景下,我們的授權品牌在固定匯率基礎上實現了 11.6% 的銷售額增長。我們繼續在我們的品牌組合中提供引人注目的創新,並且我們正在推動在線和店內的需求。我們繼續在墨西哥、巴西、中東和印度看到強勁的業績。在中國,我們仍然看到持續的大流行性關閉的影響。在 Tommy Hilfiger,我們繼續與關鍵市場的區域影響者和協會一起推動成果。我們在宣傳的家庭里程上收到了強烈的反響,網狀錶鍊上的複古風格多眼藍色錶盤和 Luca 是 50 毫米運動風格的家庭。

  • In HUGO BOSS, we have continued to see the momentum of the parent brand's repositioning and it continues to resonate with our consumers as exhibited by the successful introduction of 2 new families, Spear and Purity. We continue to collaborate with the BOSS influencers, the connect with the consumer in our visual associations as well as venues like TikTok, where boss watchers are being worn by Khaby, who is one of the most followed individuals on the platform. In Coach, we introduced the Katy tank family, which is modeled after Coach's iconic badge logo and is worn by Coach ambassador, Jennifer Lopez. We are continuing to drive our Coach online business in China with associations with key online digital influencers. We are excited to introduce the third generation of our iconic 1212 family in Lacoste during the third quarter. 1212 is inspired by the iconic Lacoste polo shirt. This new collection is already off to a fast start. In addition, we just introduced Lacoste jewelry, and we are already seeing strong sell-through. We continue to roll out the launch of our Calvin Klein brand in watches and jewelry, and we are seeing a strong response from consumers, especially on the watch front. Women's represents about 50% of the watch sales. Men's watches about 33% and are for everyone segment, about 17%. We'll support our key European markets with billboard advertising as well as digital efforts for the holiday season.

    在 HUGO BOSS 身上,我們繼續看到母品牌重新定位的勢頭,並繼續引起我們消費者的共鳴,成功推出 2 個新系列 Spear 和 Purity 就證明了這一點。我們繼續與 BOSS 有影響力的人合作,在我們的視覺協會以及 TikTok 等場所與消費者建立聯繫,Khaby 是平台上最受關注的人之一,在那裡佩戴老闆觀察者。在 Coach 中,我們推出了 Katy 背心系列,它以 Coach 標誌性的徽章標誌為藍本,由 Coach 大使 Jennifer Lopez 佩戴。我們將繼續與主要在線數字影響者建立聯繫,推動我們在中國的 Coach 在線業務。我們很高興在第三季度在 Lacoste 推出我們標誌性的 1212 系列的第三代產品。 1212 的靈感來自標誌性的 Lacoste polo 衫。這個新系列已經開始快速啟動。此外,我們剛剛推出了 Lacoste 珠寶,我們已經看到強勁的銷量。我們繼續在手錶和珠寶中推出我們的 Calvin Klein 品牌,我們看到消費者的強烈反響,尤其是在手錶方面。女裝約佔手錶銷售額的 50%。男士手錶約佔 33%,適合所有人的手錶約佔 17%。我們將通過廣告牌廣告以及節日季的數字化努力來支持我們的主要歐洲市場。

  • We continue to make progress in developing our strategic plans for MVMT and Olivia Burton and in building out our teams in an evolving retail market. We are encouraged by the progress that we are making on the innovation and product component of both brands at higher price points. In MVMT, we have seen success with our Raptor automatic, which at $500, is our most expensive MVMT ever, and we will sell out our collaboration with the HelloKitty brand, which includes watches and sunglasses. In Olivia Burton, we are also elevating price points. And while the U.K. continues to be economically challenged, we have gotten a strong response from retailers to our newness that is arriving for the holiday and additional newness that will be arriving next spring. As we think about the balance of the year, we believe that the intended consequences of central banks to tamp down inflation are beginning to take effect and economies around the world are beginning to slow. There continues to be a heightened risk of a recession and retailers and consumers are becoming increasingly cautious. The level of uncertainty makes it more challenging to forecast results for the upcoming holiday season, and we have revised our outlook to reflect our cautious posture.

    我們在為 MVMT 和 Olivia Burton 制定戰略計劃以及在不斷發展的零售市場中建立我們的團隊方面繼續取得進展。我們以更高的價格在兩個品牌的創新和產品組件上取得的進展令我們感到鼓舞。在 MVMT 中,我們的 Raptor automatic 取得了成功,它的售價為 500 美元,是我們有史以來最昂貴的 MVMT,我們將售罄與 HelloKitty 品牌的合作,其中包括手錶和太陽鏡。在 Olivia Burton,我們也在提高價格點。雖然英國繼續面臨經濟挑戰,但我們已經從零售商那裡得到了強烈的回應,他們對我們即將到來的假期新品以及明年春天將到貨的其他新品做出了強烈反應。當我們考慮今年的餘額時,我們認為中央銀行抑制通脹的預期後果開始生效,世界各地的經濟開始放緩。經濟衰退的風險繼續增加,零售商和消費者變得越來越謹慎。不確定性程度使得預測即將到來的假日季的結果更具挑戰性,我們修改了展望以反映我們的謹慎態度。

  • Within this context, we are navigating a retail environment with reduced visibility, and we will focus on controlling the things that we can control. We will tightly manage expenses while continuing to support the long-term growth opportunities for our business. We will protect gross margins and focus on continuing to drive profitability and positive cash flow. We have managed our balance sheet very effectively, and it puts us in a strong position to navigate an increasingly volatile retail climate. Our teams have done an excellent job of executing against our strategic objectives and our focus on managing our inventory, expenses, and gross margins while maximizing our sales. I would now like to turn the call over to Sallie.

    在這種情況下,我們正在一個可見度降低的零售環境中航行,我們將專注於控制我們可以控制的事情。我們將嚴格管理開支,同時繼續支持我們業務的長期增長機會。我們將保護毛利率,並專注於繼續推動盈利能力和正現金流。我們非常有效地管理了我們的資產負債表,這使我們在應對日益動蕩的零售環境中處於有利地位。我們的團隊在執行我們的戰略目標和專注於管理我們的庫存、費用和毛利率方面做得非常出色,同時最大限度地提高了我們的銷售額。我現在想把電話轉給 Sallie。

  • Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Thank you, Efraim, and good morning, everyone. For today's call, I will review our financial results for the third quarter and year-to-date period of fiscal 2023, and then I will provide an update to our outlook for the year. My comments today will focus on adjusted results. Please refer to the description of the special items included in our results for the third quarter and year-to-date period of fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2022 in our press release issued earlier today, which also includes a reconciliation table of GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Additionally, given the significant currency impact on our results, where appropriate, sales will also be provided on a constant currency basis. We are pleased with our overall performance for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 despite being negatively impacted by the continued strength of the U.S. dollar and by intensifying economic pressures in certain key markets as the quarter progressed. Our financial performance was highlighted by an increase in global net sales on a constant currency basis, strong gross margin, and operational discipline. We once again ended our quarter with a strong balance sheet.

    謝謝 Efraim,大家早上好。在今天的電話會議上,我將回顧我們 2023 財年第三季度和年初至今的財務業績,然後我將更新我們對這一年的展望。我今天的評論將集中在調整後的結果上。請參閱我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中對我們 2023 財年和 2022 財年第三季度和年初至今業績中包含的特殊項目的描述,其中還包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調節表措施。此外,鑑於貨幣對我們業績的重大影響,在適當情況下,銷售額也將以固定貨幣為基礎提供。我們對 2023 財年第三季度的整體表現感到滿意,儘管受到美元持續走強的負面影響以及隨著季度的進展某些主要市場的經濟壓力加劇。我們的財務業績突出體現在按固定匯率計算的全球淨銷售額的增長、強勁的毛利率和運營紀律。我們再次以強勁的資產負債表結束了本季度。

  • For the third quarter of fiscal 2023, sales were $211.4 million as compared to $27.7 million last year, a decrease of 2.9%. In constant dollars, net sales increased 3.4% to $225.1 million. This increase in constant dollars reflects growth in our licensed brands, which included Calvin Klein and in our company stores was partially offset by a decline in our owned brands. U.S. net sales decreased 5.9% with decreases in both the company's wholesale customers in the owned brand category and an online, partially offset by an increase in company store sales. As Efraim mentioned, we are seeing the effects inflation is having on the consumer in the U.S. as well as in key international markets. International net sales decreased 0.7% as compared to the third quarter of last year. On a constant currency basis, International net sales grew by 10.2%, with strong performances across all international regions, although we started to see softening in key markets as the quarter progressed. Gross profit as a percent of sales was 57.3% compared to 57.7% in the third quarter of last year.

    2023 財年第三季度銷售額為 2.114 億美元,而去年同期為 2770 萬美元,下降 2.9%。按不變美元計算,淨銷售額增長 3.4% 至 2.251 億美元。不變美元的增長反映了我們的授權品牌(包括 Calvin Klein)和我們公司商店的增長被我們自有品牌的下降部分抵消了。美國淨銷售額下降 5.9%,該公司自有品牌類別和在線批發客戶均有所減少,部分被公司商店銷售額的增長所抵消。正如 Efraim 提到的,我們看到了通貨膨脹對美國以及主要國際市場消費者的影響。與去年第三季度相比,國際淨銷售額下降了 0.7%。按固定匯率計算,國際淨銷售額增長 10.2%,所有國際地區均表現強勁,但隨著季度的推進,我們開始看到主要市場出現疲軟。毛利潤佔銷售額的百分比為 57.3%,而去年第三季度為 57.7%。

  • The 40 basis point decrease in gross margin was primarily driven by the unfavorable impact of foreign currency exchange rates and increased shipping costs, offset by favorable channel and product mix. Operating expenses were $82.1 million as compared to $83.4 million for the same period of last year. The decline was driven by a decrease in performance-based compensation and lower marketing expenses, partially offset by an increase in payroll-related expenses. For the 3 months ended October 31, 2022, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates related to our foreign subsidiaries positively impacted operating expenses by $1.7 million when compared to the prior year period. As a result of the decrease in sales and gross margin, partially offset by the decrease in operating expenses in the third quarter, operating income was $38.9 million as compared to $42.2 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. We reported income tax expense of $8.6 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2023 as compared to $9.7 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. The Net income in the third quarter was $29.8 million or $1.31 per diluted share as compared to a net income of $32.1 million or $1.36 per diluted share in the year ago period. Now turning to our year-to-date results. Sales for the 9-month period ended October 31, 2022, were $557.6 million as compared to $526.4 million last year. In constant dollars, the increase in net sales was 10.9%. International sales increased 13.1% or 22.3% on a constant currency basis. U.S. net sales declined by 2.3%.

    毛利率下降 40 個基點主要是由於外幣匯率的不利影響和運輸成本增加,但被有利的渠道和產品組合所抵消。營業費用為 8210 萬美元,而去年同期為 8340 萬美元。下降的原因是基於績效的薪酬減少和營銷費用減少,部分被工資相關費用的增加所抵消。截至 2022 年 10 月 31 日止的 3 個月,與去年同期相比,與我們的外國子公司相關的外幣匯率波動對運營費用產生了 170 萬美元的積極影響。由於銷售額和毛利率下降,部分被第三季度運營費用的減少所抵消,營業收入為 3890 萬美元,而 2022 財年第三季度為 4220 萬美元。我們報告的所得稅費用為 8.6 美元2023 財年第三季度為 100 萬美元,而 2022 財年第三季度為 970 萬美元。第三季度淨收入為 2980 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.31 美元,而淨收入為 3210 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.36 美元在去年同期。現在轉向我們年初至今的結果。截至 2022 年 10 月 31 日的 9 個月期間銷售額為 5.576 億美元,而去年為 5.264 億美元。按不變美元計算,淨銷售額增長 10.9%。按固定匯率計算,國際銷售額增長 13.1% 或 22.3%。美國淨銷售額下降 2.3%。

  • Gross profit was $324.6 million or 58.2% of sales as compared to $298.2 million or 56.7% of sales last year. The increase in gross margin rate for the first 9 months was due to favorable channel and product mix, partially offset by unfavorable changes in foreign currency exchange rates and increased shipping costs. For the 9 months ended October 31, 2022, operating income was $96.4 million compared to $81.8 million in fiscal 2022. As a percent of sales, operating income was 17.3% in the first 9 months of fiscal 2023 as compared to 15.5% in the first 9 months of fiscal 2022. Net income was $73.5 million or $3.19 per diluted share as compared to $62.2 million or $2.63 per diluted share in the year ago period. Now turning to our balance sheet. Cash at the end of the third quarter was $186.7 million as compared to $201.8 million of the same period of last year. Accounts receivable were $135.6 million, down approximately $800,000 from the same period of last year. Inventory at the end of the quarter was up $44.3 million or 25.9% above the same period of last year, primarily due to the timing of receipts and the addition of approximately $8 million of Calvin Klein inventory.

    毛利潤為 3.246 億美元,佔銷售額的 58.2%,而去年為 2.982 億美元,佔銷售額的 56.7%。前 9 個月的毛利率上升是由於有利的渠道和產品組合,部分被外幣匯率的不利變化和運輸成本增加所抵消。截至 2022 年 10 月 31 日止的 9 個月,營業收入為 9640 萬美元,而 2022 財年為 8180 萬美元。營業收入佔銷售額的百分比在 2023 財年的前 9 個月為 17.3%,而 2023 財年前為 15.5% 2022 財年的 9 個月。淨收入為 7350 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 3.19 美元,而去年同期為 6220 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 2.63 美元。現在轉向我們的資產負債表。第三季度末現金為 1.867 億美元,而去年同期為 2.018 億美元。應收賬款為1.356億美元,較去年同期減少約80萬美元。本季度末庫存比去年同期增加 4430 萬美元或 25.9%,這主要是由於收貨時間和 Calvin Klein 庫存增加了約 800 萬美元。

  • We are comfortable with the level and composition of inventory at the end of the third quarter. And based upon anticipated receipts and net sales in the fourth quarter, we expect inventory levels at year-end to be more in line with historical levels. In the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, we repurchased approximately $28.2 million or 795,000 shares under our share repurchase program. Capital expenditures for the 9-month period were $4.7 million and depreciation and amortization expense was $8.2 million, which included $2.1 million related to the amortization of acquired intangible assets of Olivia Burton and MVMT. Now I would like to discuss our outlook. In addition to currency headwinds, we are also experiencing a weaker spending environment in key markets. Although we are strongly positioned heading into our fourth quarter, we are revising our outlook as a result of the uncertain retail environment. Our net sales are currently expected to be in the range of $740 million to $750 million. We continue to expect gross profit of approximately 58% of sales for the year.

    我們對第三季度末的庫存水平和構成感到滿意。根據第四季度的預期收入和淨銷售額,我們預計年底的庫存水平將更符合歷史水平。在 2023 財年的前 9 個月,我們根據股票回購計劃回購了約 2820 萬美元或 795,000 股股票。 9 個月期間的資本支出為 470 萬美元,折舊和攤銷費用為 820 萬美元,其中包括與 Olivia Burton 和 MVMT 收購的無形資產攤銷相關的 210 萬美元。現在我想談談我們的前景。除了貨幣逆風,我們還經歷了主要市場的消費環境疲軟。儘管我們在進入第四季度時處於有利地位,但由於不確定的零售環境,我們正在修改我們的前景。我們的淨銷售額目前預計在 7.4 億美元至 7.5 億美元之間。我們繼續預計全年毛利約為銷售額的 58%。

  • Given the strong first 9 months and our focus on profitability, we currently expect operating income in a range of $120 million to $125 million. We now anticipate a 23% effective tax rate. This updated outlook does not contemplate significant further impact of increasing inflation or geopolitical unrest and assumes no further significant fluctuations from prevailing foreign currency exchange rates. I would now like to open the call up for questions.

    鑑於前 9 個月的強勁表現以及我們對盈利能力的關注,我們目前預計營業收入在 1.2 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。我們現在預計有效稅率為 23%。這一更新後的展望並未考慮通貨膨脹加劇或地緣政治動蕩的進一步重大影響,並假設現行外幣匯率不會進一步出現重大波動。我現在想打開問題的電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) A confirmation tone will indicate your lines in the question queue. (Operator Instructions  And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Oliver Chen with Cowen & Company.

    (操作員說明)確認音將指示您在問題隊列中的線路。 (操作員說明對於使用揚聲器設備的參與者,可能需要在按星號鍵之前拿起聽筒。我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Oliver Chen。

  • Tom Nass

    Tom Nass

  • It's Tom Nas on for Oliver. On the gross profit guidance reconfirmed at 58%. Could you guys elaborate on that given the lowered revenue guide? What efficiencies do you expect in targeting this? And additionally, with regard to FX, how do you expect that to impact revenue and gross margin over the following quarter?

    湯姆·納斯替奧利弗上場。毛利指引再次確認為 58%。鑑於收入指南降低,你們能否詳細說明一下?您期望達到什麼效率?此外,關於外匯,您預計這將如何影響下一季度的收入和毛利率?

  • Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • So I'll start with the gross margin question, and Efrain will pick up. So we've had a very strong gross margin all year. We will continue that into the fourth quarter, which is a heavy direct-to-consumer period for us, but we have had a very strong mix and expect that our -- to not be heavily promotional in the fourth quarter. So we expect a very strong gross margin to continue. We are anniversarying tough numbers from last year. So we are guiding to 58% for the entire year. And your question on...

    所以我將從毛利率問題開始,然後 Efrain 會接手。所以我們全年的毛利率都非常高。我們將把這種情況持續到第四季度,這對我們來說是一個直接面向消費者的重要時期,但我們的組合非常強大,預計我們的——在第四季度不會大量促銷。因此,我們預計將繼續保持非常強勁的毛利率。我們正在紀念去年的艱難數字。因此,我們將全年指導為 58%。而你的問題是...

  • Tom Nass

    Tom Nass

  • With regard to how that should impact revenue and also gross margin?

    關於這將如何影響收入和毛利率?

  • Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Sallie A. DeMarsilis - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Right. So I'll take that, and I'm sure Efraim will pop in a little bit with a fill. So we're using the current FX rate for our guide for the fourth quarter. We know we've had a very significant shift in currency, most significantly in the third quarter. And heading into the fourth quarter, we are using what we are aware of today. FX does impact our gross margin significantly, and that also is in our outlook guide, if you will, most certainly because of the complexity of our international business, multicurrency and having our supply chain also being in Switzerland and in Hong Kong.

    正確的。所以我接受了,我相信 Efraim 會加入一點點。因此,我們使用當前的匯率作為第四季度的指南。我們知道我們的貨幣發生了非常重大的變化,最明顯的是在第三季度。進入第四季度,我們正在使用我們今天所知道的。外匯確實會顯著影響我們的毛利率,這也在我們的展望指南中,如果你願意的話,最肯定的是因為我們國際業務的複雜性,多貨幣以及我們的供應鏈也在瑞士和香港。

  • Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

    Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

  • And currency, as I stated earlier in the call, has had an effect -- a material effect on our sales this year because all of our European sales get translated back into U.S. dollars at a stronger dollar rate. And that shift throughout the year and especially in the third quarter, has been material.

    正如我早些時候在電話會議中所說,貨幣產生了影響——對我們今年的銷售額產生了重大影響,因為我們所有的歐洲銷售額都以更強勁的美元匯率換算回美元。全年,尤其是第三季度的這種轉變非常重要。

  • Tom Nass

    Tom Nass

  • Great. And then could you guys talk a little bit about gas prices and retail traffic trends you're seeing across channels and geographies? We've seen some slight moderation in gas prices in the U.S., but just curious as to how you expect that to play out.

    偉大的。然後你們能談談你們在不同渠道和地區看到的汽油價格和零售流量趨勢嗎?我們已經看到美國的汽油價格略有放緩,但只是想知道您期望這種情況如何發生。

  • Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

    Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

  • So I think you have a combination of variables and factors playing into the consumer this coming holiday season. One is last year, they were told to buy earlier, they would be -- or they would run -- people would run out of products. So I think you're going to see a later Christmas this year than we saw last year, which was not the regular pattern of the past. I think gas prices have moderated, but there are also -- consumers are also now seeing inflation continue on the food side. Eventually, I believe all of these factors will moderate, but it's just going to take some time. And particularly, I think at the middle income and upper middle income consumer inflation has taken a toll as a greater part of their income is focused on required goods like gas and food, and rent versus discretionary items.

    因此,我認為在即將到來的假日季節,變量和因素的組合會對消費者產生影響。一個是去年,他們被告知要早點購買,他們會——或者他們會跑——人們會用完產品。所以我認為今年的聖誕節會比去年晚,這不是過去的常規模式。我認為天然氣價格已經緩和,但也有 - 消費者現在也看到食品方面的通貨膨脹仍在繼續。最終,我相信所有這些因素都會緩和,但這需要一些時間。特別是,我認為中等收入和中高收入的消費者通脹已經造成損失,因為他們收入的很大一部分集中在汽油和食品等必需品上,租金與可自由支配的物品相比。

  • Tom Nass

    Tom Nass

  • And one last question. On a sequential basis, inventory growth appeared relatively flat. Can you speak to the freshness of your inventory and then provide some details on pricing trends ahead of the holiday season?

    最後一個問題。從環比來看,庫存增長似乎相對平穩。您能否談談庫存的新鮮度,然後提供一些有關假期前定價趨勢的詳細信息?

  • Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

    Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure. So our inventory is in very good shape. And the -- so we did get receipts in early throughout the year, and we expect it to drop in the fourth quarter, but it is a very clean inventory in terms of newness and quality of inventory. So we have no concerns about that. What was the second part? Pricing trends? So we did pass some price increases early in the year and that did help offset some of the currency headwinds that we were facing, especially in Europe. And I believe that now it will stay stable for a while, and I don't anticipate any more of that. I think you will see a more promotional holiday season from retailers. But our own intention is not to be more promotional on our side.

    當然。所以我們的庫存狀況非常好。而且 - 所以我們確實在全年早些時候收到了收據,我們預計它會在第四季度下降,但就庫存的新穎性和質量而言,這是一個非常乾淨的庫存。所以我們對此沒有任何擔憂。第二部分是什麼?定價趨勢?因此,我們在年初確實通過了一些價格上漲,這確實有助於抵消我們面臨的一些貨幣逆風,尤其是在歐洲。而且我相信現在它會保持穩定一段時間,而且我預計不會再出現這種情況。我認為您會看到零售商推出更多促銷假期。但是我們自己的意圖並不是要在我們這邊做更多的宣傳。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Efraim for closing comments.

    目前沒有問題。我想將會議轉回 Efraim 以徵求結束意見。

  • Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

    Efraim Grinberg - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay. Well, thank you very much, everybody, and I wish everybody a great Thanksgiving holiday, and we look forward to talking with you again after our year-end. Thank you again.

    好的。好吧,非常感謝大家,祝大家感恩節假期愉快,我們期待著在年底後再次與您交談。再次感謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

    謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路,感謝您的參與。