奧馳亞 (MO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Altria Group 2023 Third Quarter and 9 Months Earnings Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2023 年第三季和 9 個月財報電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead.

今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務部投資者關係副總裁 Mac Livingston。請繼續。

Thanks, Ashley. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's third quarter and first 9-month business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com.

謝謝，阿什利。早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早上，奧馳亞執行長比利吉福德 (Billy Gifford)我們的財務長 Sal Mancuso 將討論奧馳亞第三季和前 9 個月的業務表現。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了我們的結果。發布、演示、季度指標和我們最新的企業責任報告均可在 altria.com 上取得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2022. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將結果與 2022 年同期進行比較。我們的言論包含前瞻性和警告性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天收益發布末尾的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測有重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

未來的股利支付和股票回購仍由董事會酌情決定。我們根據美國公認會計原則報告我們的財務表現。今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種營運績效。調整後的結果排除了影響與報告結果比較的特殊項目。這些非 GAAP 財務指標和調節表的描述包含在今天的收益報告和我們的網站 altria.com 中。

Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older.

最後，今天的演講中所有提及的煙草消費者或特定煙草類別或細分市場內的消費者均指 21 歲或以上的現有成年煙草消費者。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

這樣，我就把電話轉給比利。

Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Our highly profitable traditional tobacco businesses were resilient in a dynamic operating environment during the third quarter and first 9 months, providing fuel for a business transformation and significant cash returns to our shareholders. We grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 3.3% for the first 9 months and returned more than $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We continue to balance maximizing profitability from our smokeable and moist smokeless tobacco businesses with investments to realize our vision of responsibly leading the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future.

謝謝，麥克。早安，感謝您加入我們。我們高利潤的傳統菸草業務在第三季和前 9 個月的動態營運環境中保持了彈性，為業務轉型提供了動力，並為股東帶來了可觀的現金回報。前 9 個月，我們的調整後攤薄每股收益成長了 3.3%，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還超過 57 億美元。我們繼續在可吸和潮濕無菸菸草業務的利潤最大化與投資之間取得平衡，以實現我們負責任地引導成年吸菸者向無菸未來過渡的願景。

This morning, I will focus on our progress with NJOY, the state of the e-vapor category, and the encouraging third quarter results from on!. I'll then turn it over to Sal, who will provide an update on consumer and industry dynamics, further detail on our financial results and outlook for the remainder of the year.

今天早上，我將重點放在我們與 NJOY 的進展、電子煙類別的狀況以及令人鼓舞的第三季業績！然後我會將其交給 Sal，他將提供有關消費者和行業動態的最新資訊、有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊以及今年剩餘時間的前景。

Let's begin in the e-vapor category. In our first full quarter of ownership, our teams executed NJOY's business plans with speed and focus to lay the foundation for NJOY's long-term success. To date, NJOY ACE remains the only pod-based e-vapor product with a marketing authorization from the FDA. We're actively working to bring this compelling smoke-free alternative for more smokers and vapors across the United States. We believe that the long-term success in e-vapor will be influenced by our actions in the near term, and we're executing in the marketplace to grow the business responsibly and sustainably.

讓我們從電子蒸氣類別開始。在我們擁有所有權的第一個完整季度中，我們的團隊快速而專注地執行了 NJOY 的業務計劃，為 NJOY 的長期成功奠定了基礎。迄今為止，NJOY ACE 仍然是唯一獲得 FDA 行銷授權的以煙彈為基礎的電子煙產品。我們正在積極努力，為美國各地更多的吸煙者和電子煙帶來這種引人注目的無菸替代品。我們相信，電子煙領域的長期成功將受到我們近期行動的影響，我們正在市場上執行任務，以負責任和可持續的方式發展業務。

First, while already strong, strengthening NJOY's supply chain was a necessary step to begin the initial phase of our expansion with ACE. Our teams worked diligently to solidify the entire supply chain from sourcing direct materials through the shipment to retail. As a result, we do not anticipate capacity constraints as we execute our initial expansion plan.

首先，雖然 NJOY 的供應鏈已經很強大，但加強 NJOY 的供應鏈是我們與 ACE 合作開始初始階段擴張的必要步驟。我們的團隊努力工作，鞏固從直接採購材料到運輸再到零售的整個供應鏈。因此，在執行最初的擴張計劃時，我們預計不會出現產能限制。

Next, during the third quarter, our teams prioritized closing inventory gaps at retail and expanding distribution of ACE. Prior to the acquisition, NJOY had a small-scale sales force, which resulted in inventory volatility and significant distribution gaps at retail. Upon completion of the NJOY transaction, we immediately unleashed our sales force to focus on closing the inventory gaps in stores that already had distribution. We improved inventory conditions in stores and are actively working to close remaining gaps at retail.

接下來，在第三季度，我們的團隊優先考慮縮小零售庫存缺口並擴大 ACE 的分銷。在收購之前，NJOY 的銷售團隊規模較小，導致庫存波動和零售分銷缺口顯著。 NJOY 交易完成後，我們立即釋放銷售人員，並專注於彌補已分銷商店的庫存缺口。我們改善了商店的庫存狀況，並積極努力縮小零售方面的剩餘缺口。

For expansion, ACE distribution grew to approximately 42,000 stores during the third quarter and is now distributed in all of the top 25 convenience store chains by e-vapor volume. In addition, we began to amplify visibility with new point-of-sale and fixture signage at retail.

為了擴張，ACE 的分銷在第三季度增長到約 42,000 家商店，目前已分銷到所有排名前 25 名的電子煙連鎖便利商店。此外，我們開始透過新的銷售點和零售固定標誌來擴大知名度。

During the fourth quarter, we continue to expect ACE expansion to reach a total of 70,000 stores by year-end, representing approximately 70% of e-vapor volume and 55% of cigarette volume sold in the U.S. multi-outlet and convenience scanner. As we continue to expand distribution and close inventory gaps, we expect to further enhance visibility and product fixture space at retail.

在第四季度，我們繼續預期 ACE 的擴張規模將在年底達到 70,000 家商店，約占美國多通路和便利掃描儀銷售的電子煙銷量的 70% 和捲菸銷量的 55%。隨著我們繼續擴大分銷並縮小庫存缺口，我們預計將進一步提高零售的知名度和產品固定空間。

Last month, NJOY unveiled its first retail trade program. Retail partners can sign up for the program at various levels with merchandising options designed to position NJOY strategically and responsibly to tobacco consumers, while creating further awareness of the brand. And as we move to our next phase of e-vapor consumer engagement, we are beginning to test a variety of promotional plans and anticipate more disruptive execution at retail in the fourth quarter.

上個月，NJOY 推出了第一個零售貿易計畫。零售合作夥伴可以在不同層級報名參加該計劃，並提供各種銷售選項，旨在以策略性和負責任的方式向菸草消費者定位 NJOY，同時進一步提高品牌知名度。隨著我們進入電子煙消費者參與的下一階段，我們開始測試各種促銷計劃，並預計第四季度零售業將採取更具顛覆性的執行。

Moving into 2024. We will continue to refine our promotional plans, implement NJOY's retail trade program, further expand distribution and evolve our consumer engagement strategy. Our strategies will focus on informing adult vapors and smokers of the attributes of ACE, such as battery capacity and pod size relative to other leading brands, generating trial and growing brand loyalty. In addition, plans for a new brand equity campaign are well underway. We expect the equity campaign to further amplify the brand's presence at retail and drive consumer engagement with the brand. We're excited to share more on this campaign and the next phases of our growth plans in the near future.

進入2024年，我們將繼續完善我們的促銷計劃，實施NJOY的零售貿易計劃，進一步擴大分銷並發展我們的消費者參與策略。我們的策略將專注於讓成人電子煙和吸菸者了解 ACE 的屬性，例如相對於其他領先品牌的電池容量和煙彈尺寸，從而引發試用並提高品牌忠誠度。此外，新的品牌資產活動計劃也正在順利進行中。我們預期股權活動將進一步擴大該品牌在零售領域的影響力，並推動消費者與該品牌的互動。我們很高興能在不久的將來分享有關此活動以及下一階段成長計畫的更多資訊。

Looking more broadly at the e-vapor category, the current state of the market is intolerable for both legitimate manufacturers and consumers. As we have noted repeatedly 4 months, the regulated market is being overrun by illegal flavored disposable e-vapor products, made and distributed by companies violating virtually every rule and guidance FDA has issued since 2016. Regulation not in force is indistinguishable from no regulation at all. Illegal e-vapor products circumvent the actions of regulators, responsible manufacturers and retailers by evading scientific review, quality manufacturing controls, marketing oversight and legal aids or purchase restrictions.

從更廣泛的角度來看電子煙類別，目前的市場狀況對於合法製造商和消費者來說都是無法容忍的。正如我們在4 個月中反覆指出的那樣，受監管的市場正在被非法調味的一次性電子煙產品佔領，這些產品的製造和分銷公司幾乎違反了FDA 自2016 年以來發布的所有規則和指南。未生效的監管與沒有監管沒有區別。全部。非法電子煙產品透過逃避科學審查、品質製造控制、行銷監督以及法律援助或購買限制來規避監管機構、負責任的製造商和零售商的行動。

Despite recent actions by the FDA, enforcement has been inadequate and ineffective. We believe the FDA has good tools necessary to bring order to the market. For our part, we are actively engaged with regulators, state and federal lawmakers and trade partners and other stakeholders to build awareness of these serious issues and drive marketplace enforcement. We have also taken more targeted but necessary action and initiated litigation in the United States District Court in California against 34 organizations, including manufacturers, distributors and online retailers related to the sale of unlawful products. A strong course correction is needed to protect the tobacco harm reduction opportunity for the 30 million adult smokers in the U.S.

儘管 FDA 最近採取了行動，但執法力度仍然不充分且無效。我們相信 FDA 擁有恢復市場秩序所需的良好工具。就我們而言，我們積極與監管機構、州和聯邦立法者、貿易夥伴和其他利益相關者合作，以提高對這些嚴重問題的認識並推動市場執法。我們也採取了更有針對性但必要的行動，並在加州美國地方法院對 34 個與銷售非法產品相關的組織提起訴訟，其中包括製造商、分銷商和線上零售商。需要大力修正方向，以保護美國 3,000 萬成年吸菸者減少菸草危害的機會。

Turning to oral tobacco. The nicotine pouch category experienced sizable growth once again, resulting in an estimated 5% increase in total U.S. oral tobacco volumes over the past 6 months. All nicotine pouches grew nearly 10 share points year-over-year and now represent more than 32% of the U.S. oral tobacco category. On! participated in the category growth as third quarter reported shipment volumes increased nearly 37% versus the year ago period.

轉向口腔煙草。尼古丁袋裝類別再次經歷了大幅增長，導致過去 6 個月美國口腔菸草總量估計增加了 5%。所有尼古丁袋裝的份額年增了近 10 個百分點，目前占美國口腔菸草類別的 32% 以上。在！第三季出貨量較去年同期成長近 37%，參與了該類別的成長。

During the quarter, Helix focused on continued volume growth while improving profitability. Helix applied its evolving analytical resources to be more flexible with its promotions in the marketplace. As a result, on!'s retail price increased 33% per can sequentially and 52% versus the prior year, closing the gap that is in by over $1 year-over-year. Encouragingly, we continue to see increasing levels of both trial and adoption of the brand with repeat purchases up more than 35% year-over-year despite the substantial increase in retail price.

本季度，Helix 專注於銷售持續成長，同時提高獲利能力。 Helix 利用其不斷發展的分析資源，使其在市場上的促銷活動更加靈活。因此，on! 的每罐零售價比上一季上漲了 33%，比上一年上漲了 52%，從而縮小了同比超過 1 美元的差距。令人鼓舞的是，儘管零售價格大幅上漲，但我們繼續看到該品牌的試用和採用水平不斷提高，重複購買量同比增長超過 35%。

In addition, on!'s retail share of the oral tobacco category was 6.9%, up 1.7 share points versus the prior year and stable sequentially. Internationally, on! PLUS began its test launch in Sweden, one of the largest modern oral tobacco markets in the world. And consumers are engaging with the brand through both e-commerce and select retail locations. While still early days, we are encouraged by the feedback we've received from consumers. Initial consumer data showed that on! PLUS performed well in the areas of comfort, flavor and overall satisfaction. We believe that on! PLUS' long-lasting flavor system and proprietary software material are differentiators in the category.

此外，on! 在口腔菸草類別中的零售份額為 6.9%，比上年增長 1.7 個百分點，與上一季相比保持穩定。國際化，加油！ PLUS 開始在世界上最大的現代口腔菸草市場之一瑞典進行測試。消費者透過電子商務和選定的零售地點與該品牌互動。雖然還處於早期階段，但我們從消費者那裡收到的回饋令我們感到鼓舞。最初的消費者數據顯示！ PLUS 在舒適度、風味和整體滿意度方面表現良好。我們相信就！ PLUS 持久的風味系統和專有軟體材料是該類別的差異化因素。

We are at an exciting period in our history. We have an unprecedented opportunity to responsibly lead the transition of adult smokers to our smoke-free future. Our smoke-free portfolio is compelling, and I am encouraged by our initial progress with NJOY and on!'s strong performance. I believe we have the appropriate strategies on people in place to execute our growth plans. I continue to believe that we can achieve our vision and create long-term value for our shareholders.

我們正處於歷史上一個激動人心的時期。我們擁有前所未有的機會來負責任地引導成年吸菸者過渡到無菸的未來。我們的無菸產品組合引人注目，我對 NJOY 的初步進展和 on! 的強勁表​​現感到鼓舞。我相信我們有適當的人員策略來執行我們的成長計畫。我仍然相信我們能夠實現我們的願景並為股東創造長期價值。

I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.

現在我將把它交給 Sal，以提供有關業務環境和我們的結果的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Billy. Let's begin with an update on consumer and industry dynamics. During the third quarter, cigarette industry volume declines continued to be elevated from their historical levels due in part to macroeconomic factors and the growth of illegal favored disposable e-vapor products. By design, illicit products are largely distributed through nontraditional untracked channels, requiring us to refine our ability to estimate their impacts on the industry.

謝謝，比利。讓我們先了解消費者和產業動態的最新情況。第三季度，捲菸產業銷售降幅持續高於歷史水平，部分原因是宏觀經濟因素和非法青睞的一次性電子煙產品的成長。按照設計，非法產品主要透過非傳統的、未追蹤的管道進行分銷，這要求我們提高評估其對產業影響的能力。

With the information we have today, we believe that there is more cross-category movement than previously assumed. And we now estimate that growth of illegal flavor disposable e-vapor products contributed to industry, cigarette industry declines in the range of 1.5% to 2.5% and over the last 12 months. These updated estimates have been reflected in our decomposition of cigarette industry decline rates. We will continue to monitor this dynamic trend and are actively pursuing better data sources to enhance our estimates in this space.

根據我們今天掌握的信息，我們認為跨類別的變動比之前假設的要多。我們現在估計，非法香料一次性電子煙產品的成長導致捲菸產業在過去 12 個月內下降了 1.5% 至 2.5%。這些更新的估計值已反映在我們對捲菸產業下降率的分解中。我們將繼續監測這一動態趨勢，並積極尋求更好的數據來源，以增強我們在這一領域的估計。

Turning to results for the quarter. The smokeable products segment continued to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles over the long term, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. In fact, during the third quarter, the smokeable products segment expanded adjusted OCI margins, while Marlboro grew its retail share sequentially in the cigarette category and within the premium segment.

轉向本季的業績。吸菸產品部門持續實施其可燃產品長期獲利最大化的策略，同時適當平衡對萬寶路的投資與資助無菸產品的成長。事實上，在第三季度，可吸菸產品部門擴大了調整後的 OCI 利潤率，而萬寶路在捲菸類別和高端部門的零售份額也持續成長。

Adjusted operating companies income declined by 2.5% in the third quarter, but grew by 0.2% for the first 9 months. The adjusted OCI decline during the third quarter was primarily driven by elevated industry volume declines due to the factors I mentioned and higher promotional investments. As a reminder, there was also 1 fewer shipping day in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by [0.7 and 0.9] in the third quarter and the first 9 months, respectively. Net pricing remained robust, and net price realization for the segment was 8.6% in the third quarter and 9.8% for the first 9 months.

調整後營運公司營收第三季下降 2.5%，但前 9 個月成長 0.2%。第三季調整後的 OCI 下降主要是由於我提到的因素和促銷投資增加導致行業銷售下降加劇。需要提醒的是，與2022 年第三季相比，2023 年第三季的出貨日也減少了1 個。調整後的OCI 利潤率在第三季和前9 個月分別擴大了[0.7 和0.9]。淨定價依然強勁，第三季該部門的淨價格實現率為 8.6%，前 9 個月為 9.8%。

Marlboro was resilient during the quarter, and its retail share of the cigarette category grew [0.3] sequentially to 42.3%, while declining 0.3 versus the year ago period. Promotional investments across the Marlboro portfolio, such as investments in Marlboro Black supported the strong share performance for the quarter. Additionally, Marlboro grew its share within the stable premium segment to 58.9%, an increase of 0.3 sequentially and [0.4] year-over-year, while other brands ceded share in the premium segment sequentially and year-over-year. Total discount segment share grew 1.1 percentage points year-over-year to 28.2%, but has been flat since the first quarter of 2023. We believe the recent stability in discount is an encouraging sign, considering the adverse macroeconomic conditions impacting smokers in the premium position of our portfolio.

萬寶路在本季表現強勁，捲菸類別零售份額較上季成長 [0.3] 至 42.3%，但與去年同期相比下降 0.3。萬寶路投資組合的促銷投資（例如對萬寶路黑色的投資）支撐了本季強勁的股價表現。此外，萬寶路在穩定的高端細分市場中的份額增長至 58.9%，環比增長 0.3，同比增長 [0.4]，而其他品牌在高端細分市場的份額則環比和同比增長 [0.4]。折扣細分市場總份額年增1.1 個百分點，達到28.2%，但自2023 年第一季以來一直持平。考慮到不利的宏觀經濟狀況對吸菸者的保費影響，我們認為近期折扣的穩定是一個令人鼓舞的跡像我們的投資組合的位置。

Smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 11.6% in the third quarter and 10.5% for the first 9 months. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, third quarter domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10%. For the first 9 months, adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10.5%. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8% in the third quarter and for the first 9 months.

吸菸產品部門報告稱，第三季度國內捲菸銷量下降了 11.6%，前 9 個月下降了 10.5%。根據日曆差異和貿易庫存變動進行調整後，第三季國內捲菸銷量預計將下降 10%。前 9 個月，調整後的國內捲菸銷量估計下降了 10.5%。在產業層面，我們估計調整後的國內捲菸銷量在第三季和前 9 個月下降了 8%。

In Cigars, John Middleton reported exceptional performance through the first 9 months and cigar shipment volume increased 4.2%. The oral tobacco products segment reported strong results during the quarter. As adjusted OCI and OCI margins increased while on! continued to grow its retail share of the oral tobacco category year-over-year. For the third quarter, adjusted OCI grew 7.1% and the segment expanded adjusted OCI margins to 69.3%, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points versus the prior year. This performance was supported by robust net price realization due in part to the more efficient on! promotional investments, Billy described earlier.

在雪茄方面，約翰·米德爾頓 (John Middleton) 報告前 9 個月表現出色，雪茄出貨量增加了 4.2%。口腔菸草產品部門在本季度報告了強勁的業績。隨著調整後的 OCI 和 OCI 利潤率增加！口腔菸草類別的零售份額持續逐年成長。第三季度，調整後 OCI 成長 7.1%，該部門調整後 OCI 利潤率擴大至 69.3%，比上年增長近 3 個百分點。這一業績得到了強勁淨價實現的支持，部分原因是效率更高！比利之前描述過，促銷投資。

For the first 9 months, the segment grew adjusted OCI by 4.1%, with adjusted OCI margins of 68.9%, up nearly 1 percentage point. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased by 3.3% and 2.3% for the third quarter and for the first 9 months, respectively. The segment's volume decline was driven by declines in MST volumes, partially offset by the growth of on!. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, segment volumes declined by an estimated 2% and 2.5% for the third quarter and first 9 months, respectively. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined 4.2 percentage points in the third quarter as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the year-over-year growth of on!.

前 9 個月，該部門調整後的 OCI 成長了 4.1%，調整後的 OCI 利潤率為 68.9%，成長了近 1 個百分點。整個部門報告第三季和前 9 個月的出貨量分別下降了 3.3% 和 2.3%。該細分市場銷量下降的原因是 MST 銷量下降，但 on! 的成長部分抵消了這一下降。根據日曆差異和貿易庫存變動進行調整後，第三季和前 9 個月的細分市場銷售量預計分別下降 2% 和 2.5%。第三季度，口腔菸草產品細分市場的零售份額下降了 4.2 個百分點，因為我們的 MST 品牌的下降被 on! 的同比增長部分抵消。

Turning to capital allocation. We continue to return significant cash to shareholders. In the third quarter, we paid approximately $1.6 billion in dividends and raised our dividend by 4.3% in August, in line with our new progressive dividend goal. This increase marked our 58th increase in the last 54 years. And repurchased 5.9 million shares for $260 million. As of the end of the quarter, we had $268 million remaining under our current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the year. In addition, our balance sheet remained strong through the quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1x.

轉向資本配置。我們繼續向股東返還大量現金。第三季度，我們支付了約 16 億美元的股息，並在 8 月將股息提高了 4.3%，這符合我們新的累進股息目標。此次成長是我們過去 54 年來的第 58 次成長。並以2.6億美元回購了590萬股股票。截至本季末，我們目前的股票回購計畫還剩 2.68 億美元，我們預計該計畫將在年底前完成。此外，本季我們的資產負債表依然強勁。截至第三季末，我們的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.1 倍。

Let's turn to our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. We are narrowing our full year 2023 guidance range and now expect to deliver diluted -- adjusted diluted earnings per share in a range of $4.91 to $4.98. This range represents a growth rate of 1.5% to 3% from a base of $4.84 in 2022.

讓我們來看看今年剩餘時間的財務前景。我們正在縮小 2023 年全年指引範圍，現在預計稀釋後每股收益將在 4.91 美元至 4.98 美元之間。這一範圍代表 2022 年以 4.84 美元為基礎的成長率為 1.5% 至 3%。

Finally, at our Investor Day, we announced the creation of our Connect and Transform open innovation system, which is focused on partnering externally to leverage subject matter expertise, new technologies and disruptive innovations to augment our internal capabilities and support our innovation strategies. As part of this system, today, we are publishing 11 innovation briefs. More information is available on altria.com.

最後，在投資者日，我們宣布創建 Connect and Transform 開放創新系統，該系統專注於與外部合作，利用主題專業知識、新技術和顛覆性創新來增強我們的內部能力並支持我們的創新策略。作為該系統的一部分，今天我們將發布 11 份創新簡報。更多資訊請造訪 altria.com。

With that, we'll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items.

至此，我們就結束了，比利和我將很樂意回答您的問題。在整理電話會議期間，我要提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 調整表可在 altria.com 上查看。我們還發布了通常的季度指標，其中包括定價、庫存和其他項目。

Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?

下面我們開始問答環節。接線員，我們還有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉‧考夫曼。

Can you talk about the puts and takes influencing the outlook for the cigarette category as you look over the next few quarters? How are you thinking about the category? And do you view high single-digit industry volume declines as the new normal?

您能否談談未來幾季對捲菸類別前景的影響？您如何看待這個類別？您是否認為產業銷售量大幅下降是新常態？

I'll start the answer. So this is very typical of us to narrow guidance as the year plays out, and we're through 3 quarters, and we were happy to provide more transparency in narrowing our guidance to 1.5% to 3% growth off of last year's adjusted EPS. We feel really good about the guidance we've been able to provide. Of course, across the plan, there's always puts and takes. We feel that we have enough levers to deal with any changes in the marketplace, but we feel good about the narrowing of the guidance. And I think that's, as I said, pretty typical of how we manage guidance as the year progresses.

我開始回答吧因此，隨著今年的結束，我們將縮小指導範圍，我們已經經歷了三個季度，我們很高興提供更大的透明度，將我們的指導範圍縮小到去年調整後每股收益增長1.5% 至3% 。我們對我們能夠提供的指導感到非常滿意。當然，在整個計劃中，總是會有一些變化。我們認為我們有足夠的手段來應對市場的任何變化，但我們對指導範圍的縮小感到滿意。正如我所說，我認為這是我們隨著時間的推移管理指導的典型方式。

Okay. I was also curious about how you're thinking about the outlook for the cigarette category. And if you expect high single-digit industry volume decline to continue going forward?

好的。我也很好奇您如何看待捲菸類別的前景。您是否預期產業銷售將持續出現高單位數下降？

Yes, Pamela, as you know, we don't provide look forward guidance. But I think when you think about volume, and it's important to look at the [weak comp], we tried to highlight for you that, look, our consumer is still under macroeconomic pressure both the cumulative impact of inflation, but even gas prices moving around. But more importantly, what we're seeing is an influence of the illicit e-vapor and the impact it's having on the cigarette industry. And you see that we're estimating that to be about 1.5 to 2.5. The reason that's such a broad range is the nature of the illicit product. It's going through distribution channels that we feel like we have some information gaps, and we're going to be looking to fill those information gaps.

是的，帕梅拉，如您所知，我們不提供前瞻性指導。但我認為，當你考慮數量時，重要的是要關注[疲弱的比較]，我們試圖向你強調，看，我們的消費者仍然面臨宏觀經濟壓力，無論是通貨膨脹的累積影響，還是天然氣價格的變動大約。但更重要的是，我們看到的是非法電子煙的影響及其對捲菸產業的影響。您會看到，我們估計該數字約為 1.5 到 2.5。範圍如此廣泛的原因是非法產品的性質。透過分銷管道，我們感覺存在一些資訊差距，我們將尋求填補這些資訊差距。

But we wanted to highlight that to you that as we discovered it. What we did is we used the data sources we had, and we're able to triangulate it. I would point you to our quarterly metrics that we shared, and you see the significant jump up in adult vapors just over the 9 months thus far in 2023. So we think that's having an impact on cigarette volume too. We talked about some of the enforcement activities, some of the things the FDA could do, some of the things we're doing. And we would look to get that enforcement active in the marketplace.

但我們想向您強調這一點，因為我們發現了這一點。我們所做的是使用我們擁有的資料來源，並且我們能夠對其進行三角測量。我想向您指出我們分享的季度指標，您會看到 2023 年迄今為止的 9 個月內成人電子煙數量顯著增加。因此，我們認為這也會對捲菸量產生影響。我們討論了一些執法活動、FDA 可以做的一些事情以及我們正在做的一些事情。我們希望在市場上積極實施這種執法。

And also one area that I was kind of surprised about in the quarter was just the limited amount of NJOY investment spend that appeared to flow through the P&L. So could you elaborate on how you're thinking about NJOY investment over the coming quarters? And do you think that the NJOY brand can be successful and grow in an environment where illicit e-ciggs are unregulated?

本季令我感到有點驚訝的一個方面是 NJOY 投資支出似乎流經損益表的金額有限。您能否詳細說明一下您對未來幾季 NJOY 投資的看法？您認為 NJOY 品牌能夠在非法電子煙不受監管的環境中取得成功並成長嗎？

We believe, we can grow NJOY brand. Remember, it competes and our focus is in the pod base. The FDA still needs to get through its authorizations, and we believe that is going to cause transition in the marketplace as well. I tried to step you through the plan with NJOY as we progress through what we did in the third quarter as we progress through the fourth quarter, but I'll just highlight it. We really wanted to make sure we had the foundation built. And so the focus was on making sure that the supply chain would support the increased line, and we feel good about that. We wanted to fill the inventory gaps and improve visibility in the stores that NJOY was already present, and we've made significant progress on that.

我們相信，我們能夠發展NJOY品牌。請記住，它是競爭性的，我們的重點是 Pod 基礎。 FDA 仍然需要獲得授權，我們相信這也將導致市場的轉變。當我們在第三季和第四季所做的工作取得進展時，我試圖向您介紹 NJOY 的計劃，但我只是強調一下。我們真的想確保我們已經打好了基礎。因此，重點是確保供應鏈能夠支援增加的產品線，我們對此感到滿意。我們希望填補 NJOY 現有商店的庫存缺口並提高知名度，我們已經在這方面取得了重大進展。

Then we're going to expand to 70,000 stores by the end of the year, really with some disruption at retail, we feel like the visibility will continue to improve. But we're in the midst of selling in our trade program, which we think is a sustainable position on the retail fixture at retail. That will take place as we progress into the new year. And I highlighted the equity campaign is really establishing the brand equity for NJOY and being able to unveil that as we progress into the new year for the consumer.

然後，我們將在今年年底前將門市擴張到 70,000 家，確實零售業會受到一些幹擾，但我們覺得知名度會繼續提高。但我們正在銷售我們的貿易計劃，我們認為這是零售業的可持續發展立場。當我們進入新的一年時，這將會發生。我強調，股權活動真正為 NJOY 建立了品牌資產，並能夠在我們進入消費者新的一年時揭曉這一點。

And we will take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛邦妮·赫爾佐格的下一個問題。

I had a question on your guidance. You narrowed it, but essentially lowered your EPS growth this year. And then your new EPS guidance this year is below your mid-single-digit algos. So I guess I'm trying to understand how much of this is due to planned investments as you build your smoke-free vision versus maybe greater-than-expected headwinds. If you could touch on that for us it would help.

我對你的指導有疑問。你縮小了範圍，但實質上降低了今年的每股盈餘成長。然後，您今年新的每股收益指引低於您的中個位數演算法。因此，我想我正在嘗試了解其中有多少是由於您在構建無菸願景時計劃的投資以及可能大於預期的逆風所致。如果您能為我們談談這一點，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. I appreciate your question, Bonnie. I think this is very typical as we progress through the year. We are able to narrow guidance. That's what we did. I think when you think about the enterprise goals of mid-single-digit growth, that's really on a compounded annual basis, and we suggested when we did that, we were going to invest in the businesses as we feel like that we need to invest, and that's exactly what we're doing. So as we progress through the year, certainly, the enforcement I referred to earlier, as that steps up, that should affect multiple categories in the -- in our portfolio. And so I think it's very typical as we progress through the year to be able to narrow it. We brought up the bottom and brought down the top. So that's what we provided to you.

是的。我很感激你的問題，邦妮。我認為隨著我們這一年的進步，這是非常典型的。我們能夠縮小指導範圍。這就是我們所做的。我認為，當你考慮中個位數成長的企業目標時，這實際上是在複合年度基礎上，我們建議當我們這樣做時，我們將投資於我們認為需要投資的業務，而這正是我們正在做的事情。因此，隨著我們在這一年中取得進展，我之前提到的執法力度肯定會加強，這應該會影響我們投資組合中的多個類別。因此，我認為隨著這一年的進展，我們能夠縮小範圍，這是非常典型的。我們把底部拉高，然後再把頂部拉低。這就是我們為您提供的。

Bonnie, I'll also remind you that when we restated guidance upon the NJOY deal, there is amortization. It's a noncash expense drag on the year-over-year comparison.

邦妮，我還要提醒您，當我們重申 NJOY 交易的指導時，存在攤銷。與去年同期相比，這是一個非現金支出的拖累。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, just my next question beyond your smokeable segment. Despite expanding margins in the quarter, your dollar profit didn't increase and then your price realization, I guess, wasn't as robust as I would have thought, given the 3 big price increases this year, and we announced the fourth. And then your controllable cost per pack were up mid-teens. So in the context of all that, could you just talk about some of these drivers as well as your expectations for the rest of the year as it relates to those items.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，這就是我的下一個問題，超出了您的可吸煙部分。儘管本季的利潤率有所擴大，但您的美元利潤並沒有增加，而且考慮到今年的3 次大幅提價，我猜您的價格實現並不像我想像的那麼強勁，而且我們宣布了第四次。然後你每包的可控成本上升了十幾歲。因此，在這一切的背景下，您能否談談其中一些驅動因素以及您對今年剩餘時間與這些項目相關的期望。

Yes. Certainly, you saw the overall industry volume at an increased rate of decline, and we tried to highlight that in the decomposition and the impact that the illicit e-vapor was having on the cigarette category. I think when you think about it, look, we're very pleased that margins overall would step up. I wouldn't get hung up in 8 quarters price realization. We really think about it through time. So we highlighted as we progressed into the year, that there are a couple of pockets that we needed to invest in, and I think you see the benefit of those investments with [Marlboro] share. And so -- again, I wouldn't get hung up on any particular quarter. I mean we tend to look at it over a bit longer term than just quarter-to-quarter. And so that's the way we manage the business. I think when you think about the cost, as you have fluctuations again in a quarter as you have fluctuations in volume, that's going to gyrate that controllable cost per pack.

是的。當然，您會看到整個行業的銷售下降速度加快，我們試圖強調非法電子蒸汽的分解和對捲菸類別的影響。我想，當你仔細想想，我們很高興整體利潤率有所提升。我不會糾結於 8 個季度的價格實現。我們確實透過時間來思考這個問題。因此，隨著今年的進展，我們強調，我們需要在一些領域進行投資，我認為您會看到這些投資與[萬寶路]份額的好處。因此，我不會再糾結於任何特定的季度。我的意思是，我們傾向於從更長遠的角度來看待它，而不僅僅是逐季度地看待它。這就是我們管理業務的方式。我認為，當您考慮成本時，由於數量波動，季度內再次出現波動，這將導致每包的可控成本發生變化。

And we will take our next question from Andrei Condrea with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀安德烈‧康德雷亞 (Andrei Condrea) 提出的下一個問題。

One from me, please. When thinking just about your price increases, obviously, the one you took in Q4 was, obviously, larger than your previous increases over the past, call it, 2 years. Should -- basically, my question is should we kind of expect this higher and higher level of price taken from you and your peers as volumes come under pressure from macro factors? Sorry, it was a little long winded and...

請給我一份。當考慮到你的價格上漲時，顯然，你在第四季採取的價格上漲顯然比你過去的上漲幅度更大，稱之為兩年。基本上，我的問題是，隨著成交量受到宏觀因素的壓力，我們是否應該預期您和您的同行的價格水平會越來越高？抱歉，有點囉嗦，而且…

That's fair. I think I followed it. Did you have any more there? I didn't want to cut you off.

這還算公平。我想我遵循了它。你那裡還有嗎？我不想打斷你。

Yes, I got a follow -- I got another one after that.

是的，我得到了一個關注——之後我又得到了另一個關注。

Yes, I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing. But I think when you think about it, again, I would give the same advice that I gave to Bonnie is I wouldn't get hung up on 1 price increase that took place. We really look at the factors that go into pricing, and we've mentioned those before. But I think you see with the stability of Marlboro share in the marketplace, we feel good about the strength of the brand, and we have been able to take those price increases. I would remind you that price elasticity for the industry is a negative 0.35 coefficient factor. We haven't seen anything that would determine -- that would need to move, and we feel good about that.

是的，我會小心不要談論未來的定價。但我想，當你再次思考這個問題時，我會給出與邦妮相同的建議，即我不會因為發生的 1 次價格上漲而陷入困境。我們確實研究了影響定價的因素，並且我們之前已經提到過這些因素。但我認為，隨著萬寶路市場份額的穩定，我們對該品牌的實力感到滿意，並且我們已經能夠承受這些價格上漲。我想提醒您的是，該行業的價格彈性係數為負 0.35。我們還沒有看到任何決定性的事情——需要採取行動，我們對此感覺很好。

So I think when you think about pricing, again, typically, we look at it as price realization versus specific list price. And remember, our price realization is made up of 2 pieces. One is list price that you saw us take, and the other is promotional spend in the marketplace, and that can drive it one way or the other on any given quarter and then through time.

因此，我認為，當您考慮定價時，通常我們會將其視為價格實現與特定標價。請記住，我們的價格實現由 2 部分組成。一個是您看到我們採取的標價，另一個是市場上的促銷支出，這可以在任何給定季度和時間上以某種方式推動它。

That makes sense. And secondly, I mean we saw -- obviously, you filed a lot of litigation versus illicit vape manufacturers and well, BAT did the same, just learned [via another] avenue. Probably what we'd be looking for is any inkling on how long this would take to crystallize, one way or the other?

這就說得通了。其次，我的意思是我們看到——顯然，你們對非法電子煙製造商提起了很多訴訟，英美菸草公司也做了同樣的事情，只是透過另一個途徑了解到。也許我們正在尋找的是關於這需要多長時間才能結晶的任何線索，無論是哪種方式？

Yes. Certainly, the legal system will be the legal system. So it's hard to predict how that will transpire. I think there, what we're looking for is an injunction. These products are illegal. And with the lack of enforcement that's taken place by the FDA, we felt like we needed to take action. And so we did that with litigation, and we've done that in other ways with communications to the FDA, meeting with government officials to really show the intolerable nature of what's taking place in the marketplace.

是的。當然，法律制度就是法律制度。因此很難預測這將如何發生。我認為我們正在尋找的是禁令。這些產品是非法的。由於 FDA 缺乏執法力度，我們覺得我們需要採取行動。因此，我們透過訴訟做到了這一點，並透過與 FDA 的溝通、與政府官員會面等其他方式做到了這一點，以真正展示市場上正在發生的事情的令人無法容忍的本質。

Again, you heard it in my remarks, but regulation without enforcement is truly indistinguishable from any -- from having no regulation. If you don't enforce it, it's basically words on paper. So we want to protect harm reduction and the opportunity for the 30 million smokers in the U.S. So we really need to have enforcement where the smokers can make informed choices as they are moving across categories. I think that there's an underlying positive is that we see adult smokers moving over. So they're ready to have potentially reduced harm products. We just need them to be regulated and based on science to be in the marketplace.

你在我的演講中再次聽到了這一點，但沒有強制執行的監管實際上與任何監管——與沒有監管沒有區別。如果不強制執行，基本上就是紙上談兵。因此，我們希望減少危害並保護美國 3000 萬吸煙者的機會。因此，我們確實需要強制執行，讓吸煙者在跨類別時能夠做出明智的選擇。我認為潛在的積極因素是我們看到成年吸煙者正在轉變。因此，他們已經準備好推出可能減少危害的產品。我們只需要對其進行監管並以科學為基礎即可進入市場。

We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Vivien Azer 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

So I wanted to talk about your smokeless margins, just to start very healthy margin improvement. I was wondering if you could just dimensionalize the magnitude of the benefit that you guys saw from the reduction in promo spend on on! versus kind of the normalized operating leverage that you get from pricing on MST?

所以我想談談你們的無菸利潤，只是為了開始非常健康的利潤改善。我想知道你們是否可以將你們從促銷支出減少中看到的好處的大小量化！與您透過 MST 定價獲得的標準化營運槓桿有何不同？

Thank you for the question. And yes, we're really happy with the OTP margins. And I would say both traditional smokeless and oral [TDN] are contributing to the strength of those margins. So you're right to point out the strength of, in particular, Copenhagen in the MST category. And then as we discussed in our opening remarks, the net pricing increases for on! both on a year-over-year basis and a sequential basis.

感謝你的提問。是的，我們對 OTP 利潤非常滿意。我想說，傳統的無菸和口服 [TDN] 都對這些利潤率做出了貢獻。因此，您指出哥本哈根在 MST 類別中的優勢是正確的。然後，正如我們在開場白中討論的那樣，淨定價持續上漲！包括同比和環比。

Okay. Understood. And then on Marlboro market share, healthy 30 basis point improvement sequentially is the premium segment held share, which is certainly good to see given the continued macro pressures you guys have called out on the consumer. I was wondering if you could comment at all on kind of the impact that Marlboro Black Gold had on that potential improvement?

好的。明白了。然後，就萬寶路市場份額而言，高端細分市場的份額連續健康地增長了 30 個基點，鑑於你們對消費者提出的持續宏觀壓力，這當然是件好事。我想知道您是否可以評論萬寶路黑金對潛在改進的影響？

Yes. We're certainly pleased with the Marlboro Black Gold launch. We're certainly pleased with the utilization that the PM USA team has put on Marlboro Black and use in the marketplace to give consumers that are under economic strain, a place to stay with Marlboro because that's what the consumer wants. I think when you think about overall, Marlboro Black, it represents about 10% of the mobile franchise. It's very similar as far as being used as a tool, you'll recall this, Vivien, back when we use special blend and the other downturn that we saw in '08, '09. And so when you think about it, it's being able to utilize it to -- we're very pleased with the rounding out of the portfolio in Marlboro Black with Marlboro Black Gold and very pleased with the results we're seeing in the marketplace.

是的。我們當然對萬寶路黑金的推出感到滿意。我們對 PM USA 團隊在市場上推出萬寶路黑色並為經濟緊張的消費者提供一個繼續使用萬寶路的地方感到非常滿意，因為這就是消費者想要的。我認為，當你考慮整體時，Marlboro Black 代表了行動特許經營權的 10% 左右。就用作工具而言，它非常相似，你會記得這一點，Vivien，當我們使用特殊混合和我們在 08 年、09 年看到的其他衰退時。因此，當你想到這一點時，它能夠利用它來——我們對萬寶路黑和萬寶路黑金產品組合的完善感到非常滿意，並對我們在市場上看到的結果感到非常滿意。

Sure. That's great. I'll just squeeze in one last one, if you don't mind. On the last slide of the presentation, you guys highlighted the Nevada menthol share, which did fall off sequentially in the third quarter. Can you offer any color on why you think that is?

當然。那太棒了。如果你不介意的話，我就擠最後一張。在簡報的最後一張投影片上，你們強調了內華達州薄荷醇的份額，在第三季確實連續下降。您能提供任何顏色來說明您認為這是為什麼嗎？

I think it really highlights the illicit activity that takes place in California. You'll recall previously, so some of it was cross-border, but as the illicit activity takes place in California, whether that be menthol cards that we highlighted last time or even menthol -- menthol cigarettes, finding their way into the state of California. Again, it's another example where prohibition doesn't work. You don't have enforcement and that illegal activities take place to get the consumer what they're desiring and that's what we're seeing take place in California.

我認為這確實凸顯了加州發生的非法活動。你可能還記得之前，所以其中一些是跨境的，但隨著非法活動發生在加利福尼亞州，無論是我們上次強調的薄荷卡，還是薄荷醇香煙，都找到了進入美國州的途徑。加利福尼亞州。這又是禁令不起作用的另一個例子。沒有執法機構，非法活動的發生是為了讓消費者得到他們想要的東西，這就是我們在加州看到的情況。

We'll take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

我們將回答歐文·貝內特和傑弗里斯提出的下一個問題。

I had a couple of questions around vape again. And first one, is coming back to disposable enforcement. So realistically, ignoring the actions by yourselves and BAT and looking at FDA specifically, do you actually see kind of any chance of meaningful measures in the next 6 to 12 months, given obviously, in the middle of last year, the FDA spoke that they are now working with the local government agencies to address this. And then they also flagged the possibility of possible federal statutory changes to address this. So just love to get your thoughts around if we could see kind of any meaningful action from the statutory perspective or the FDA in the next 6 to 12 months.

我又對電子煙產生了幾個疑問。第一個是回到一次性執法。因此，現實地講，忽略你們自己和BAT 的行動並具體關注FDA，您是否真的看到在未來6 到12 個月內採取有意義的措施的任何機會，顯然，在去年年中，FDA 表示他們目前正在與當地政府機構合作解決這個問題。然後他們也提出了可能修改聯邦法規來解決這個問題的可能性。因此，如果我們能在未來 6 到 12 個月內從法定角度或 FDA 角度看到任何有意義的行動，請聽聽您的想法。

Yes, it's a good question, Owen. I'm very optimistic. I mean if you think about it, I can think of 4 simple steps that the FDA could take to really rain and improve the enforcement. One, they could help the trade, be able to identify products that out of compliance. When you think about that, that's just providing a list that's clear, either the ones that are authorized or those that have been denied so that they're not in the marketplace. Once they do that, conduct a broad-based retail inspection program. They've done that -- they did that in the cigarette category. They can do that in the e-vapor space. And once they do that, issue maximum penalties and then bring in junction actions against manufacturers and distributors that are openly defying FDA regulation.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，歐文。我很樂觀。我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，我可以想到 FDA 可以採取的 4 個簡單步驟，以真正加強執法力度。第一，他們可以幫助貿易，能夠辨識不合規的產品。當你想到這一點時，這只是提供一個明確的列表，要么是被授權的，要么是被拒絕的，這樣它們就不會出現在市場上。一旦他們這樣做了，就進行廣泛基礎的零售檢查計劃。他們已經做到了——他們在香菸類別中做到了這一點。他們可以在電子蒸汽空間中做到這一點。一旦他們這樣做，就會發出最高處罰，然後對公然違反 FDA 法規的製造商和分銷商採取聯合行動。

And then I think adopting comprehensive border programs to prevent importation, a lot of these products are imported, they're imported illegally, and then they're sold illegally. So they seem to be very, very simple. That's why I'm optimistic that the FDA will take action and be able to work to bring order to the retail environment.

然後我認為採取全面的邊境計畫來防止進口，許多這些產品都是進口的，它們是非法進口的，然後是非法銷售的。所以它們看起來非常非常簡單。這就是為什麼我對 FDA 將採取行動並能夠努力恢復零售環境秩序持樂觀態度。

And then when they spoke about statutory changes, do you see any possibility of that happening?

然後當他們談到法定變更時，您認為這種情況發生的可能性嗎？

They have the tools and the authority now for illegal products in the marketplace. So certainly, we would be open to statutory changes. But I mean, when you think about it, they have the ability to do that now, Owen. So it seems like -- and I highlighted those 4 simple steps. They have the tools, and they have the authority to do it today.

他們現在擁有打擊市場上非法產品的工具和權力。因此，我們當然願意接受法定變更。但我的意思是，當你仔細想想，他們現在有能力做到這一點，歐文。所以看起來——我強調了這 4 個簡單的步驟。他們擁有工具，並且今天有權這樣做。

Okay fine. And then just my second question, on the quarterly metrics, you showed a slide highlighting the spike in the number of adult vapers. This has replaced the slide you showed historically that actually showed estimated industry vape volumes. Can you maybe talk about what the volume number was for the quarter? I just want to get a better idea of what the vape impact would be on cigarettes from an absolute volume perspective?

好的。然後是我的第二個問題，關於季度指標，您展示了一張幻燈片，突出顯示了成人電子煙用戶數量的激增。這已經取代了您歷史上顯示的實際顯示估計行業電子煙銷量的幻燈片。您能否談談該季度的銷量是多少？我只是想從絕對數量的角度更了解電子煙對香菸的影響？

Yes. What we tried to do, the reason we went with the vapors as we had previously, but didn't share the volume is the nature of this illicit marketplace. It's hard to track, and that's the nature of it being illicit. It's going through different distribution channels than what typical products go through because it's illegally getting to the marketplace. I think when you think about the impact of the cigarette volume, what we tried to do on the [decomp] page is show you that we estimate it to be between 1.5 to 2.5 over the last 12 months. So we tried to provide you with that data. Again, as I mentioned earlier, I know that's a bit of a wide range. We're trying to fill what we feel like there are some data gaps so that we have a better read of what's taking place in the marketplace through distribution channels that is different than typical products.

是的。我們試圖做的事情，我們像以前一樣使用蒸汽，但沒有分享數量的原因是這個非法市場的本質。它很難追踪，這就是它非法的本質。它透過與典型產品不同的分銷管道，因為它是非法進入市場的。我認為，當您考慮捲菸量的影響時，我們在 [decomp] 頁面上嘗試做的就是向您展示我們估計過去 12 個月的捲菸量在 1.5 到 2.5 之間。所以我們試圖向您提供這些數據。同樣，正如我之前提到的，我知道這個範圍有點寬。我們正在努力填補我們認為存在的一些數據空白，以便我們透過不同於典型產品的分銷管道來更好地了解市場上正在發生的事情。

Okay. And then any broad guess of what the sequential volume increase was industry-wise in the second quarter, given kind of the (inaudible) big variance?

好的。然後，考慮到（聽不清楚）巨大差異，對第二季整個產業的銷售連續成長有什麼廣泛的猜測？

Yes. It's -- again, it's tough just because of the nature, all of the growth, we feel like most of the growth that occurred in the e-vapor space. What we saw was pod industry was down slightly. Overall, e-vapor was up, and that growth was coming from the illicit disposables that are in the marketplace.

是的。再說一次，這很困難，因為它的本質，所有的成長，我們感覺到大部分成長都發生在電子蒸氣領域。我們看到的是 Pod 產業略有下降。總體而言，電子煙銷量有所增長，而這種增長來自市場上的非法一次性用品。

And then how overall was it? The overall e-vapor?

那麼整體情況如何？整體電子蒸氣？

Yes. Again, with the inability to be able to estimate the total market space because of the illicit product in the marketplace, we didn't want to put an overall growth. We have an estimate, but we don't want to put an overall growth.

是的。同樣，由於市場上存在非法產品，我們無法估計總市場空間，因此我們不想實現整體成長。我們有一個估計，但我們不想給出整體成長。

Owen, this is Sal. And I would also point out, not only is it flavors in this illicit disposable category, flavors are really not in line with regulations. They're flavors like bubblicious cotton candy. I mean, they -- I agree with Billy the need for enforcement is very important, and we need it to happen. We'd like it to happen as soon as possible.

歐文，這是薩爾。我還要指出的是，它的口味不僅屬於非法一次性類別，而且口味確實不符合規定。它們的味道就像起泡的棉花糖。我的意思是，他們——我同意比利的觀點，執法的必要性非常重要，我們需要它發生。我們希望它盡快發生。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 Stifel 的 Matt Smith 提出的下一個問題。

Wanted to ask a follow-up question around the change in the impact of cross-category dynamics and now the 2% drag you're seeing on cigarette volumes. Can you talk about your expectations for how these consumers that are using the illicit products that are generating that higher drag, how do you expect them to behave once you do see enforcement in the category and these products that they're using today are removed from the marketplace? Do you expect those current users to shift into lawful smoke-free products, including vapor? And then do you then expect the drag to be lessen going forward given the removal of the flavor products? Or do you expect the vapor category to continue to grow through the enforcement of illicit products?

我想就跨類別動態影響的變化以及現在您看到的捲菸銷量 2% 的拖累提出後續問題。您能否談談您對這些使用產生較高阻力的非法產品的消費者的期望？一旦看到該類別的強制執行，並且他們今天使用的這些產品被從產品中移除，您希望他們如何表現？市場？您是否希望目前的使用者轉向合法的無菸產品，包括蒸氣煙？那麼，鑑於風味產品的去除，您預計未來的阻力會減少嗎？或者您預計透過非法產品的執法，電子煙類別會繼續成長？

Yes, it's a great question. I think when you think about it, certainly, the youth that are using the e-vapor, we want them completely out of the category, just to be clear on that. I think when you think about the adults that are moving over, we would want them to stay on reduced risk products. That's why we're excited about the NJOY product and being able to have the distribution and have it readily available for them, it's authorized and have it readily available for them to choose. I think if you look historically, you'll recall when the FDA eliminated flavors and pods, we did see some consumers go back to cigarettes. And so that's best estimate, but it's ultimately up to the consumer, and we'll do our best to keep them in e-vapor space with the NJOY product.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為當你想到這一點時，當然，使用電子蒸汽的年輕人，我們希望他們完全脫離這個類別，只是為了明確這一點。我認為，當你想到要搬家的成年人時，我們希望他們繼續使用低風險產品。這就是為什麼我們對 NJOY 產品感到興奮，能夠進行分發並隨時可供他們使用，它已獲得授權並可供他們隨時選擇。我想如果你回顧一下歷史，你會記得當 FDA 取消香料和煙彈時，我們確實看到一些消費者重新開始抽菸。這是最好的估計，但最終取決於消費者，我們將盡最大努力讓他們透過 NJOY 產品保持在電子蒸氣空間中。

Just as a quick follow-up, I wanted to ask about the distribution opportunity around NJOY. You understand that you laid out the priorities in your first quarter of ownership focusing on the supply chain. But I was curious if there is any prioritization of expanding distribution for if and when FDA actually picks up its enforcement against illicit products. Do you need to see a more proactive FDA before you expand the distribution of NJOY to take advantage of the disruption in the marketplace?

作為快速跟進，我想詢問 NJOY 周圍的分銷機會。您了解，您在擁有所有權的第一季制定了重點關注供應鏈的優先事項。但我很好奇，如果 FDA 真正開始對非法產品進行執法，是否會優先考慮擴大分銷。在擴大 NJOY 的分銷以利用市場的混亂之前，您是否需要尋求更積極主動的 FDA 的支持？

We do not. We have the target of 70,000 stores by the end of the year. We feel good about getting to those stores. Certainly, we would appreciate FDA enforcement more so for the -- being able to protect the harm reduction opportunity in the U.S. But no, we will move forward with our distribution plans as we laid out.

我們不。我們的目標是在今年年底開設 70,000 家門市。去這些商店我們感覺很好。當然，我們會更感謝 FDA 的執法，因為能夠保護美國減少傷害的機會。但是，我們將按照我們制定的方式推進我們的分配計劃。

We'll take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain 提出的下一個問題。

A few questions from me. So first is on these -- the cannibalization impact that you are sharing from e-cigarettes. So given the -- on the modern oral front, it seems that the cannibalization has stepped up on cigarettes because the oral tobacco volumes are much better than what would have thought. So isn't it that modern oral is about 1% cannibalizing impact on cigarette volumes? And then the e-cigarette cannibalization impact is probably lesser than what you have highlighted?

我有幾個問題。首先是這些—您所分享的電子煙的蠶食影響。因此，考慮到現代口腔方面，香菸的蠶食似乎已經加劇，因為口腔菸草的數量比想像的要好得多。那麼，現代口腔不是對捲菸量產生約 1% 的蠶食影響嗎？那麼電子煙的蠶食影響可能比你強調的還要小？

Yes. I understand your question Gaurav. I think when we look at the information, certainly, we're having some impact, and we've tried to highlight that from a sourcing perspective with [modern] oral products. What we highlighted for disposable is what we feel is what's taken place from the disposables. So that's separate and distinct from modern oral. So no, we feel like what we've estimated that 1.5 to 2.5, and I explained why it's a range, is really the impact of disposable e-cigarettes on cigarettes.

是的。我理解你的問題高拉夫。我認為，當我們查看這些資訊時，我們確實產生了一些影響，並且我們試圖從[現代]口服產品的採購角度來強調這一點。我們對一次性用品強調的是我們認為一次性用品所發生的事情。所以這與現代口語是分開且不同的。所以不，我們覺得我們估計的 1.5 到 2.5，我解釋了為什麼這是一個範圍，實際上是一次性電子煙對香菸的影響。

Sure. And then second question is clearly, GLP-1 drug, big focus of investors right now across staples, would you have any indication of what's the cigarette prevalence amongst consumers whose BMI is greater than 27 versus prevalent some of consumers with BMI less than 27. And that 27 number is where I believe vis-a-vis gets prescribed for consumers with comorbidity. So that's why I'm referencing that 27 number.

當然。第二個問題顯然是，GLP-1 藥物是投資者目前主要關注的主要產品，您是否有任何跡象表明BMI 大於27 的消費者中的捲菸流行率與BMI 小於27 的一些消費者中的流行率是多少？我認為 27 這個數字是為患有合併症的消費者開出的處方。這就是我引用 27 這個數字的原因。

Yes. I understand the theory that you have regarding that. I think when you look at the science, you look at the trends and you look at the facts of even what's taken place to date related to GLP-1 drugs, we see no indication of that. We'll certainly continue to monitor, but we don't see any indication.

是的。我理解你對此的理論。我認為，當您審視科學、趨勢以及迄今為止與 GLP-1 藥物相關的事實時，我們沒有看到任何跡象。我們當然會繼續監控，但我們沒有看到任何跡象。

Sure. And then a final question is around the menthol cigarette rule-making process. What should we expect from here on in terms of time lines?

當然。最後一個問題是關於薄荷捲菸規則制定過程的。就時間軸而言，我們接下來該期待什麼？

Yes. I think you saw that -- it went to the OMB, the Office of Management Budget on October 13, it sits with them. The FDA has announced publicly that they anticipate issuing that by the end of the year, but I think it remains to be seen when that will be issued. So from that standpoint, really you've seen our comments on menthol. We don't think it's based on -- or supported by science and evidence. And so if it's issued, I think you could anticipate potential legal challenges from the industry.

是的。我想你已經看到了——它於 10 月 13 日提交給 OMB（管理預算辦公室），它與他們坐在一起。 FDA 已公開宣布，他們預計將在今年年底發布該文件，但我認為何時發布仍有待觀察。因此，從這個角度來看，您確實已經看到了我們對薄荷醇的評論。我們認為它沒有科學和證據的基礎或支持。因此，如果它發布，我認為您可以預見來自該行業的潛在法律挑戰。

We'll take our next question from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行 Priya Ohri-Gupta 的下一個問題。

This is (inaudible) for Priya. We saw that you just filed your updated shelf. How are you thinking about addressing the January maturity in light of the current market backdrop?

這是（聽不清楚）給 Priya 的。我們看到您剛剛提交了更新的書架。在當前的市場背景下，您如何考慮解決一月份的到期問題？

Yes. As you think about debt coming due in maturities, we've done a really nice job, I believe, the treasury department in managing our debt portfolio and the maturity towers. So they do a fantastic job of monitoring the market. I think we have flexibility on how we handle that. And so I really have nothing else to report at this time regarding our maturities early next year.

是的。當你想到到期債務時，我相信，我們的財政部在管理我們的債務組合和到期塔方面做得非常好。所以他們在監控市場方面做得非常出色。我認為我們在處理方式上有彈性。因此，關於明年初我們的到期日，我目前確實沒有什麼可報告的。

We will take our next question from Jacob De Klerk with Redburn Atlantic. Jacob your line is open. All right.

我們將接受 Redburn Atlantic 的 Jacob De Klerk 提出的下一個問題。雅各布，你的線路已開通。好的。

We will continue on with Steve Marascia with Capitol Securities Management.

我們將繼續與國會證券管理公司的史蒂夫·馬拉西亞（Steve Marascia）合作。

Just sort of a follow-up. Looking at your consolidated statement of earnings, you guys reported interest and that extends about $272 million. Given the current ongoing in the treasury department rise in rates, is -- do you anticipate that number remaining level? Or should we expect some type of bump up? And if so, any idea in terms of bump-up towards what?

只是一種後續行動。看看你們的綜合收益表，你們報告了利息，這增加了大約 2.72 億美元。鑑於目前財政部正在升息，您預計這個數字會保持在水平嗎？或者我們應該期待某種類型的上漲嗎？如果是這樣，有什麼想法可以提升到什麼方向嗎？

Yes. We provide a guidance or an estimate on our depreciation and amortization, it's about $280 million for the year. You are right to point out that there are higher levels of interest rates and the capital in the debt market. But again, we believe we have appropriate flexibility as we think about refinancing or paying down debt in the future. We've also provided our debt-to-EBITDA corporate goals, if you will, our targets, and it could fluctuate a little bit over time depending on corporate needs and things like that. So we've dealt with high interest markets in the past. They are higher than what we've seen in recent past, but in the recent past. But again, we have strong cash generation by our operating companies, and we have really good flexibility as we think about managing our maturities.

是的。我們對我們的折舊和攤銷提供指導或估計，全年約為 2.8 億美元。您指出債務市場的利率和資本水準較高，這是正確的。但我們再次相信，在考慮未來再融資或償還債務時，我們擁有適當的靈活性。我們還提供了債務與 EBITDA 的企業目標（如果您願意的話），並且它可能會隨著時間的推移根據企業需求和類似情況而略有波動。所以我們過去處理過高利率市場。它們比我們最近看到的要高，但在最近的過去。但同樣，我們的營運公司擁有強大的現金產生能力，並且在我們考慮管理到期日時具有非常好的靈活性。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our next question from Jacob De Klerk with Redburn Atlantic.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 Redburn Atlantic 的 Jacob De Klerk 提出的下一個問題。

Guys, can you hear me now?

夥計們，現在你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect. I just have a quick question on NJOY. If all of the brands are not allowed in flavors, including menthol, do you think there's still enough demand for tobacco flavored vapes to have profitable business in the U.S. going forward?

完美的。我只是想問一個關於 NJOY 的問題。如果所有品牌都不允許使用包括薄荷醇在內的口味，您認為未來對菸草口味電子煙的需求是否仍足以在美國開展有利可圖的業務？

We believe there is. I think when you think about it, I wouldn't rule out menthol. We feel good about the application, the current application in front of the FDA from a menthol standpoint. I think if you look at some of the recent marketing denial orders, it was related to [youth] following. And as we pointed out when we made the NJOY transaction, there was virtually no youth following.

我們相信有。我想當你考慮到這一點時，我不會排除薄荷醇。我們對該申請感覺良好，從薄荷醇的角度來看，目前 FDA 正在申請申請。我想如果你看看最近的一些行銷拒絕令，你會發現它與[年輕人]追隨有關。正如我們在進行 NJOY 交易時所指出的，幾乎沒有年輕人追隨。

As far as additional flavors, we're excited and currently looking forward to being able to file in the near future, and we'll come back to you when we are able to do that of additional flavors with access control. We believe that allows for adult consumers to have it as an off-ramp, but not an on-ramp for underage users. So we still see the potential for flavors. But to answer your question, we feel like the consumer wants alternative products. We followed that previously, and they'll continue to want that.

至於其他口味，我們很興奮，目前期待能夠在不久的將來提交文件，當我們能夠透過存取控制來實現其他口味時，我們會回覆您。我們認為，這允許成年消費者將其作為出口匝道，但不能作為未成年用戶的入口匝道。所以我們仍然看到口味的潛力。但為了回答你的問題，我們覺得消費者想要替代產品。我們之前遵循了這一點，他們將繼續希望這樣做。

Perfect. And just a quick follow-up on your oral business. How do you kind of stop the flow of consumers moving to nicotine pouch category. I know you've got the on! brand there. But is this a structural shift you're seeing away from the traditional oral business to the nicotine pouches?

完美的。以及對您的口腔業務的快速跟進。您如何阻止消費者轉向尼古丁袋裝類別？我知道你已經上了！那裡有品牌。但這是您所看到的從傳統口服業務轉向尼古丁袋業務的結構性轉變嗎？

That certainly is the biggest outflow or inflow into nicotine pouches is coming from traditional MST consumers. (inaudible) there, and we highlighted them is participate with on!. And then we're excited to be able to file the PMTA for on! PLUS. And we highlighted while it's early, some of the consumer engagement that we're having over in Sweden, and we feel like that's a great product, and we're looking forward to be able to bring that to market once we receive authorization.

這無疑是尼古丁袋中最大的尼古丁流出或流入來自傳統 MST 消費者。 （聽不清楚）在那裡，我們強調他們是參與！。然後我們很高興能夠提交 PMTA！加。我們強調，雖然現在還為時過早，但我們在瑞典的一些消費者參與，我們覺得這是一個很棒的產品，我們期待在獲得授權後能夠將其推向市場。

And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.

目前似乎沒有進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給麥克·利文斯頓，讓其發表結束語。

Thanks, Ashley. Thanks to all for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have further questions. Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，阿什利。感謝大家加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。