3M (MMM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收有機成長 5.4%,EPS $2.40(YoY +11%),自由現金流 $13 億,營運利潤率 24.9%(YoY +40bps),表現優於預期
    • 上修 2026 全年指引:有機成長由 3% 提高至 >3.5%,EPS 由 $8.50-$8.70 上調至 $8.80-$8.95,自由現金流目標上調至 $47-49 億
    • 市場反應未明確提及盤後股價,但管理層強調業績超預期、持續優於同業與宏觀環境
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 商業卓越(Commercial Excellence)推動銷售力提升、客戶流失率下降、交叉銷售顯著成長
      • 創新動能強勁,Q2 推出 92 項新產品(YoY +44%),全年預計超過 350 項,2027 年目標 1000 項新產品
      • 資料中心(EBO 技術)與 Microsoft 合作,切入高速成長市場,並積極擴產、建立生態系
      • 中國、印度等新興市場表現強勁,中國 Q2 雙位數成長,印度連續七季雙位數成長
      • 營運效率提升,設備效能 YoY +140bps,品質成本 YoY -60bps,庫存天數 YoY -7 天
    • 風險:
      • 消費性電子、汽車及美國消費市場持續疲弱,消費電子下半年預期市況惡化(高 teens 下滑)
      • 油價上升帶來成本壓力(全年影響 $1.5-1.75 億),雖已透過漲價對沖但仍壓抑毛利率
      • 消費通路 6 月下旬去庫存,短期影響消費事業群,需觀察庫存正常化進度
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Safety & Industrial(SIBG):Q2 有機成長 8.2%,上半年 +5.7%,四大工業業務皆雙位數成長,商業執行與新產品推動
    • Transportation & Electronics(TEBG):Q2 有機成長 5.9%,上半年 +2.9%,半導體、航太、資料中心皆雙位數成長,汽車持平,消費電子低個位數下滑
    • Consumer(CBG):Q2 -2.1%,上半年 -1.7%,美國 POS 成長但零售商去庫存影響,預期下半年回穩
    • 中國:Q2 雙位數成長,上半年 +8%,本地化 NPI 與商業執行帶動
    • 庫存天數:YoY 改善 7 天,現金流轉佳
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年有機成長指引上修至 >3.5%
    • 全年 EPS 指引上修至 $8.80-$8.95(YoY +9%~11%)
    • 自由現金流指引上修至 $47-49 億,現金轉換率 >100%
    • 油價通膨影響預估 $1.5-1.75 億,已透過漲價對沖,全年毛利率預期維持擴張
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 新產品與交叉銷售對營收貢獻如何?兩倍於宏觀成長是否可持續?
      A: 成長主要來自商業與創新卓越,交叉銷售與客戶流失改善明顯,創新動能下半年將更強,預期全年高於宏觀約 $4.5 億,未來仍有持續動能。
    • Q: EBO(資料中心光連接)市場規模與競爭態勢?
      A: EBO 今年營收約 $4000-5000 萬,未來數年可望 4-5 倍成長,2028 年 TAM 約 $20 億。3M 有專利優勢,正擴產並建立多供應商生態系,預期市佔率將持續提升。
    • Q: 中國市場是否重回成長引擎?
      A: 中國 Q2 雙位數成長,組織本地化、NPI 在地化與商業執行帶動,工業需求穩健,出口與內需均有表現,長期看好中國布局。
    • Q: 新產品(NPI)貢獻時程與類型?
      A: 產品開發至上市約 250 天,開發週期已縮短 20%,Class 4/5(新市場/新應用)占比提升,下半年與 2027 年貢獻將更明顯。
    • Q: 消費事業群去庫存影響與展望?
      A: SIBG、TEBG 庫存正常,CBG 受美國部分零售商去庫存影響,預期 7 月起隨返校季補庫存將回穩,下半年消費業務預期持平或小幅成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3M second quarter earnings conference call.

    各位女士、先生,感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 3M 第二季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • As a reminder, this call is being recorded Tuesday, July 21, 2026.

    提醒各位,本次電話會議將於 2026 年 7 月 21 日(星期二)錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Chinmay Trivedi, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Financial Planning and Analysis at 3M.

    現在我想把電話會議交給 3M 投資人關係暨財務規劃與分析資深副總裁 Chinmay Trivedi。

  • Chinmay Trivedi - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chinmay Trivedi - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our quarterly earnings conference call.

    謝謝。各位早安,歡迎參加我們的季度財報電話會議。

  • With me today are Bill Brown, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Anurag Maheshwari, 3M's Chief Financial Officer. Bill and Anurag will make some formal comments, then we will take your questions.

    今天與我一同出席的有 3M 董事長兼執行長 Bill Brown,以及 3M 財務長 Anurag Maheshwari。Bill 與 Anurag 會先發表正式談話,接著我們將回答各位的提問。

  • Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3M.com.

    請注意,今天的財報新聞稿與本次電話會議隨附的簡報投影片,已發布於我們投資人關係網站首頁:3M.com。

  • Please turn to slide 2 and take a moment to read the forward-looking statements.

    請翻到投影片第 2 頁,花點時間閱讀前瞻性陳述。

  • During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations for future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將做出若干預測性陳述,反映我們目前對 3M 未來營運表現與財務結果的看法。這些陳述係基於對未來事件的若干假設與預期,而未來事件可能受到風險與不確定性影響。我們最近一期 Form 10-Q 的第 1A 項列示了部分最重要的風險因素,這些因素可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同。

  • Please note, throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release.

    請注意,在今天的簡報過程中,我們將引用若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。非 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今日新聞稿的附件中找到。

  • With that, please turn to slide 3, and I will hand the call off to Bill.

    接下來,請翻到投影片第 3 頁,我將把電話交給 Bill。

  • Bill?

    Bill?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Chinmay, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Chinmay,各位早安。

  • We delivered strong performance in Q2, including organic growth of 5.4%; operating margin of 24.9%, up 40 basis points; earnings per share of $2.40, up 11%; and free cash flow of $1.3 billion with 107% conversion. We returned $1.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter, including $400 million in dividends and $1 billion of share repurchases. Since 2025, we returned $8.6 billion to shareholders against our commitment to return $10 billion-plus through 2027. Given our strong first half performance, we're raising our guidance for the year for sales, EPS, and free cash flow.

    我們在第二季交出強勁表現,包括有機成長 5.4%;營業利益率 24.9%,提升 40 個基點;每股盈餘 2.40 美元,成長 11%;自由現金流 13 億美元,轉換率 107%。本季我們回饋股東 14 億美元,包括 4 億美元股利與 10 億美元庫藏股回購。自 2025 年以來,我們已回饋股東 86 億美元,對照我們承諾於 2027 年前回饋超過 100 億美元。鑑於上半年表現強勁,我們上調全年銷售、EPS 與自由現金流的財測指引。

  • Our results today exceeded our expectations, demonstrate the progress we're making to build a higher-performing company and continue to give us confidence we're on the right path forward. The strategy we put in place two years ago is delivering results, and we're building momentum and executing against our strategic priorities. Commercial excellence initiatives continue to drive results through improved salesforce effectiveness and stronger account execution, supported by AI-enabled tools that enhance planning, prioritize opportunities, and accelerate productivity.

    我們今天的結果超出預期,展現我們在打造更高績效公司的進展,也持續讓我們對前進方向充滿信心。兩年前我們制定的策略正在帶來成果,我們正累積動能並落實各項策略優先事項。商業卓越計畫持續透過提升銷售團隊效能與更強的關鍵客戶執行力來推動成果,並由 AI 賦能工具支援,以強化規劃、優先排序機會並加速生產力提升。

  • Cross-selling continues to outperform expectations with $110 million of opportunities booked and another $120 million in the pipeline, up over 40% quarter over quarter and putting us ahead of the goal we set at our Investor Day. We're rebuilding the innovation engine at 3M and significantly accelerating our pace of new product introductions. In the quarter, we launched 92 new products, up 44% versus last year, bringing our first half total to 176 launches and putting us on track to deliver more than 350 new products this year. The benefits are showing up in our results, and I'll talk more about our innovation journey in a moment.

    交叉銷售持續優於預期,已簽入 1.10 億美元的機會,另有 1.20 億美元在管線中,較上季成長逾 40%,使我們領先於投資人日所設定的目標。我們正在重建 3M 的創新引擎,並大幅加快新產品導入速度。本季我們推出 92 項新產品,較去年成長 44%;上半年合計推出 176 項,讓我們有望在今年推出超過 350 項新產品。這些效益已反映在我們的業績中,稍後我會再多談一些我們的創新旅程。

  • Our focus on operational discipline and productivity improvement continues to create value across the enterprise. Cost of poor quality improved 60 basis points year-over-year, while overall equipment effectiveness improved 140 basis points. As asset utilization improves, we're able to consolidate production into fewer assets, optimize our manufacturing footprint, and retire older and less efficient equipment.

    我們對營運紀律與生產力提升的聚焦,持續在全企業創造價值。不良品質成本(Cost of Poor Quality)年對年改善 60 個基點,而整體設備效率(Overall Equipment Effectiveness)提升 140 個基點。隨著資產利用率提升,我們得以將生產整併至較少的資產、優化製造據點布局,並汰除較老舊且效率較低的設備。

  • While overall utilization remains a long-term opportunity, there are pockets in our manufacturing network today where capacity is constrained and short of demand. One example is our New Ulm facility, which produces cable accessories for electrical markets, a product that's facing high and increasing demand. Here, the team ran a multi-week sprint that set a disciplined operating cadence against a locked production schedule, improved material flow, eliminated process bottlenecks, and focused the team on rapidly resolving the underlying constraints holding back output.

    雖然整體利用率仍是長期機會,但在我們目前的製造網絡中,部分區域的產能已受限且低於需求。其中一個例子是我們位於 New Ulm 的廠區,該廠生產用於電力市場的電纜配件,而此產品正面臨高且持續上升的需求。在此,團隊進行了為期數週的衝刺行動,針對已鎖定的生產排程建立嚴謹的營運節奏、改善物料流動、消除製程瓶頸,並聚焦團隊快速解決限制產出之根本約束。

  • As a result, the work center achieved record production levels in June, delivering $13 million of incremental revenue or nearly 50 basis points at the SIBG level. The actions were taken across commercial execution, innovation and operations are part of a broader transition at 3M from a holding company to a more integrated operating company model. The next step in the journey is around transformation, simplifying and standardizing core processes, reducing complexity in our factory and distribution network, and reshaping our portfolio.

    因此,該工作中心在 6 月達成創紀錄的產量水準,帶來 1,300 萬美元的增量營收,或在 SIBG 層級接近 50 個基點。我們在商業執行、創新與營運方面採取的行動,屬於 3M 更廣泛轉型的一部分:從控股公司模式轉向更整合的營運公司模式。旅程的下一步是轉型:簡化並標準化核心流程、降低工廠與配送網絡的複雜度,並重塑我們的投資組合。

  • Today, many of the activities and support functions like finance, HR, and customer service operate independently across regions and business units, creating unnecessary complexity, inefficiency, and duplication. We're bringing these activities together into a single global service delivery model and partnering with an external provider to run them at scale using automation and AI. This move will increase agility, accelerate technology adoption, and sharpen our focus on the capabilities that are most critical to driving growth and long-term value creation.

    目前,許多活動與支援職能(如財務、人資與客服)在各地區與事業單位間各自獨立運作,造成不必要的複雜性、低效率與重複。我們正把這些活動整合為單一的全球服務交付模式,並與外部供應商合作,運用自動化與 AI 以規模化方式營運。此舉將提升敏捷性、加速科技導入,並讓我們更聚焦於推動成長與長期價值創造最關鍵的能力。

  • We're also continuing to enhance our portfolio. On July 1, we closed on the acquisition of Madison Fire & Rescue, consolidating it with our Scott SCBA business into a new majority-owned joint venture and receiving $700 million in cash as part of the transaction. This JV generates revenue of $800 million, growing at high single-digits and with margins above our company average. This is a clear example of how we're reshaping the portfolio towards higher growth, higher margin businesses, strengthening our priority vertical while keeping our capital allocation disciplined.

    我們也持續強化投資組合。7 月 1 日,我們完成對 Madison Fire & Rescue 的收購,並將其與我們的 Scott SCBA 業務整併為新的多數持股合資企業,同時在交易中取得 7 億美元現金。該合資企業創造 8 億美元營收,以高個位數成長,且利潤率高於公司平均。這清楚展現我們如何在維持資本配置紀律的同時,將投資組合重塑為更高成長、更高利潤率的業務,並強化我們的優先垂直領域。

  • Another priority vertical is data centers, and I want to touch on an exciting announcement we made last week. We entered a strategic partnership with Microsoft, who will become the first hyperscaler to deploy our patented Expanded Beam Optics or EBO, technology in Azure data centers. This is a powerful proof point of how we're applying 3M's innovation to one of the fastest-growing markets in the world. Our connectors install faster, hold up far better to dust and handling, and help customers stand up AI capacity more quickly. We're rapidly scaling production capacity, both internally and externally, and engaging the broader ecosystem of suppliers, partners, and customers to support standardization and industry adoption of EBO technology.

    另一個優先垂直領域是資料中心,我想談談我們上週發布的一項令人振奮的公告。我們與 Microsoft 建立策略夥伴關係,Microsoft 將成為第一家在 Azure 資料中心部署我們具專利的 Expanded Beam Optics(EBO)技術的超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)。這是有力的實證,展現我們如何將 3M 的創新應用於全球成長最快的市場之一。我們的連接器安裝更快速、對灰塵與操作磨耗的耐受度更高,並協助客戶更快建置 AI 產能。我們正迅速擴充內部與外部的產能,並與更廣泛的供應商、合作夥伴與客戶生態系合作,以支持 EBO 技術的標準化與產業採用。

  • On slide 4, we show that the positive momentum in Q1 in several growth areas carried into Q2, driving strong performance in the first half across adhesives, abrasives, aerospace, electrical markets, and safety. We continue to see a couple of places with pressure, including consumer electronics, auto and auto aftermarket, and US consumer spending. We're clearly outgrowing the market in aggregate through better commercial execution, including increased cross-selling and improved customer retention and a faster pace of innovation. Overall, our first half performance positions us well for continued momentum in the second half of the year.

    在第 4 張投影片中,我們顯示第一季在數個成長領域的正向動能延續至第二季,帶動上半年在黏著劑、研磨材、航太、電氣市場與安全等領域的強勁表現。我們仍看到幾個承壓的地方,包括消費性電子、汽車與汽車售後市場,以及美國消費支出。透過更佳的商業執行(包括提升交叉銷售與改善客戶留存,以及更快的創新步伐),我們整體明顯跑贏市場。整體而言,我們上半年的表現使我們在下半年能夠維持動能、處於有利位置。

  • Innovation has always been one of 3M's greatest competitive advantages, and slide 5 highlights a significant inflection in launches and new product sales beginning about two years ago. Our goal is to restore that advantage at an even higher level by combining our unmatched material science capabilities with greater speed and better execution. Over the past couple of years, we've taken deliberate actions to increase rigor, accountability, and focus within our R&D organization, what we've been calling our R&D factory. As a result, we're beginning to see meaningful improvements across the innovation pipeline.

    創新一直是 3M 最重要的競爭優勢之一,而第 5 張投影片突顯了約兩年前開始,在產品上市與新產品銷售方面出現顯著的轉折點。我們的目標是結合我們無可匹敵的材料科學能力,以更快速度與更佳執行力,把這項優勢提升到更高層次並加以恢復。過去幾年,我們在研發組織(我們稱之為研發工廠)內採取了有意識的行動,以提升嚴謹度、問責性與聚焦。因此,我們開始在創新管線上看到具意義的改善。

  • We're increasing the pace of innovation and are on track to nearly triple the number of new products introduced this year versus three years ago and launch more than 1,000 products by 2027, while reducing development cycle time by about 20%. We expect performance to continue accelerating as we leverage AI to move more quickly from idea generation to development and production. These efforts are translating into commercial results with five-year new product sales reaching about $4 billion this year and new product vitality index climbing to the mid-teens this year and 20% next year.

    我們正在加快創新步伐,預計今年推出的新產品數量將接近三年前的三倍,並在 2027 年前推出超過 1,000 項產品,同時將開發週期時間縮短約 20%。隨著我們運用 AI 更快速地從構想到開發與量產,我們預期績效將持續加速。這些努力正轉化為商業成果:今年五年期新產品銷售額將達約 40 億美元,新產品活力指數(new product vitality index)今年將攀升至十幾%的中段,明年達到 20%。

  • The right side of the slide highlights several next-generation innovations and showcases the breadth of our portfolio and ability to address emerging customer needs. From developing new products for new markets, like EBO for data centers, to adapting existing technologies to new applications, like Nextel high-performance fibers for fuel cells and light-reflective films for space satellites. These products demonstrate how we're applying technology to unlock new growth opportunities.

    投影片右側重點呈現數項次世代創新,展現我們產品組合的廣度,以及滿足新興客戶需求的能力。從為新市場開發新產品(例如用於資料中心的 EBO),到將既有技術調整至新應用(例如用於燃料電池的 Nextel 高性能纖維,以及用於太空衛星的高反射薄膜)。這些產品展示了我們如何運用技術來開啟新的成長機會。

  • Slide 6 pulls it all together. Over the last couple of years, we've moved from a decline of 4.4% in 2023 to positive growth of 3% on a trailing 12-month basis through the first half of 2026, while at the same time expanding margins by about 500 basis points. This is 3M's excellence at work and demonstrates that we can both grow the topline and increase margins simultaneously. Our performance is increasingly outpacing underlying end markets with our growth to market multiple improving from roughly in line to 2x, and with the businesses that declined in 2023, turning solidly positive in '26. While we're still in the early innings of our journey to create value, the momentum is building. I'm encouraged by the progress we're making and confident in our ability to continue to deliver above-market growth and sustainable margin expansion over the long-term.

    第 6 張投影片將上述內容整合在一起。過去幾年,我們從 2023 年下滑 4.4%,提升至截至 2026 年上半年、以過去 12 個月計的正成長 3%,同時將利潤率擴大約 500 個基點。這正是 3M 卓越營運的展現,證明我們能同時推動營收成長並提升利潤率。隨著我們的成長愈來愈超越終端市場,我們的「成長對市場倍數」從大致持平改善至 2 倍;而在 2023 年下滑的業務,也在 2026 年轉為明顯正成長。雖然我們創造價值的旅程仍在早期階段,但動能正在累積。我對我們取得的進展感到鼓舞,並對我們長期持續交付高於市場的成長與可持續的利潤率擴張充滿信心。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to share the details of the quarter.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Anurag,請他分享本季的細節。

  • Anurag?

    Anurag?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Bill.

    謝謝你,Bill。

  • Turning to slide 7, we exceeded expectations across all financial metrics in the quarter, delivered mid-single-digit organic growth, margin expansion, double-digit earnings growth, and robust free cash flow, all reflecting strong progress against our strategic priorities.

    看第 7 張投影片,本季我們在所有財務指標上都超出預期,實現中個位數的有機成長、利潤率擴張、兩位數的獲利成長,以及強勁的自由現金流,這些都反映出我們在策略優先事項上的扎實進展。

  • Starting with top-line, in an unchanged macro environment, the organic sales growth of 5.4% was driven by successful execution of our commercial excellence initiatives and increasing contribution from new product launches supported by a strong operating tempo. Coming into the quarter, we had expected sales conversion from the Q1 order strength to accelerate revenue growth to over 3% in the second quarter. With the sustained order momentum in the quarter, combined with good supply chain execution, we were able to grow above expectations. This puts the first half organic growth at 3.3%, comfortably outperforming macro.

    先從營收面來看,在宏觀環境不變的情況下,有機銷售成長 5.4%,主要由我們成功推動商業卓越計畫的執行,以及在強勁營運節奏支持下,新產品上市貢獻提升所帶動。進入本季前,我們原本預期第一季訂單強勁所帶來的銷售轉換,將使第二季營收成長加速至 3% 以上。在本季訂單動能持續、加上供應鏈執行良好的情況下,我們得以達成高於預期的成長。這使得上半年有機成長達 3.3%,明顯優於宏觀表現。

  • By geography, we saw broad-based growth across all the five regions. China grew double digits with strength in industrial adhesives, safety, and auto films as we executed on our key account and local NPI strategies, leading to share gains. US and Canada industrial businesses grew mid-single digits, partially offset by softness in consumer and auto aftermarket. It was encouraging to see Europe return to growth up mid-single digits despite a muted auto market. And in Asia, we saw double-digit growth led by India, a trend that has continued for seven straight quarters as a result of increased sales coverage in a growing economy.

    按地區來看,我們在五大區域皆見到廣泛的成長。中國成長達兩位數,工業黏著劑、安全與汽車薄膜表現強勁;我們落實關鍵客戶與在地 NPI(新產品導入)策略,帶動市占提升。美國與加拿大的工業業務成長為中個位數,但部分被消費與汽車售後市場的疲弱所抵銷。令人鼓舞的是,儘管汽車市場偏弱,歐洲仍恢復成長、上升至中個位數。在亞洲方面,我們看到由印度帶動的兩位數成長;由於在成長型經濟中提升銷售覆蓋,這一趨勢已連續七個季度延續。

  • Q2 adjusted operating margins were 24.9%, up 40 basis points, with the business group operating margins up 70 basis points, partially offset by expected corporate headwind of 30 basis points. Operating profit increased $110 million or $0.16, including a $240-million benefit from sales growth and broad-based productivity, partially offset by $30 million of investments and $110 million from tariff impact and stranded cost headwind. We have not received any tariff refunds to date.

    第二季調整後營業利益率為 24.9%,上升 40 個基點;各事業群營業利益率上升 70 個基點,但部分被預期的公司層面逆風 30 個基點所抵銷。營業利益增加 1.10 億美元(或每股 0.16 美元),其中包含銷售成長與廣泛生產力帶來的 2.40 億美元效益,但部分被 3,000 萬美元投資,以及關稅影響與閒置成本(stranded cost)逆風合計 1.10 億美元所抵銷。截至目前,我們尚未收到任何關稅退稅。

  • The $0.24 of EPS growth in the quarter is driven by $0.16 of operating profit growth and $0.08 primarily from lower share count as we continue to return capital to shareholders. The benefit from tax timing and lower pension costs was offset by a prior year gain on investment. This earnings growth was also reflected in the unadjusted results with Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.78, growing 33% year over year. This included the impact of cost from ongoing transformation actions, exit of certain PFAS manufacturing assets, and gain from change in value of our Solventum ownership.

    本季每股盈餘(EPS)成長 0.24 美元,主要由營業利益成長貢獻 0.16 美元,以及我們持續回饋股東、使股數下降所帶來的 0.08 美元所驅動。稅務時點效益與較低的退休金成本效益,被前一年投資收益所抵銷。這項獲利成長也反映在未調整結果中:第二季 GAAP EPS 為 1.78 美元,年增 33%。其中包含持續轉型行動的成本、退出部分 PFAS 製造資產的影響,以及我們持有 Solventum 權益價值變動所帶來的收益。

  • Free cash flow was robust at $1.3 billion or 107% conversion as we benefited from strong earnings and working capital management, including seven days improvement over last year in inventory. We returned $1.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and gross share buybacks. For the half, we generated cash flow of $1.9 billion and returned $3.8 billion to shareholders, including $0.8 billion in dividends and $3 billion in share repurchases.

    自由現金流表現強勁,達 13 億美元,或轉換率 107%;我們受惠於強勁獲利與營運資金管理,包括庫存較去年改善 7 天。我們透過股利與股票回購(以總額計)向股東回饋 14 億美元。上半年合計,我們產生 19 億美元現金流,並向股東回饋 38 億美元,其中包含 8 億美元股利與 30 億美元股票回購。

  • Turning to the next slide, I will provide a quick overview of our growth performance for each business group. Safety and Industrial delivered a standout quarter with 8.2% organic sales growth, driven by the continued expansion of commercial excellence initiatives and the ramp-up of new product launches. We delivered double-digit growth across the four industrial businesses, electrical markets, industrial adhesives and tapes, abrasives, and industrial specialties. This growth was driven by targeted commercial initiatives to reduce customer churn, strengthen sales coverage and effectiveness, and increased cross-selling. Safety grew high-single-digits on the back of new product launches and continued international expansion. It was encouraging to see roofing granules return to growth, and we expect that trend to continue in the back half on a recovering market in easy compares.

    接著看下一張投影片,我將快速概述各事業群的成長表現。安全與工業事業群本季表現突出,有機銷售成長 8.2%,主要由商業卓越計畫持續擴展,以及新產品上市加速放量所帶動。我們在四個工業業務(電氣市場、工業黏著劑與膠帶、研磨材、工業專用產品)皆實現兩位數成長。此成長來自具針對性的商業措施,以降低客戶流失、強化銷售覆蓋與效能,並提升交叉銷售。安全業務在新產品上市與持續的國際擴張帶動下,成長達高個位數。令人鼓舞的是,屋頂顆粒(roofing granules)恢復成長;在市場復甦與比較基期有利的情況下,我們預期此趨勢將在下半年延續。

  • For the half, SIBG grew 5.7%, demonstrating sustained acceleration over the last two years. Transportation & Electronics sales grew 5.9% in the second quarter from the expected backlog conversion combined with stronger commercial execution and account management. The first half growth of 2.9% reflects strength in approximately half of the business segments, more than offsetting end-market weakness in the other half.

    就上半年而言,SIBG 成長 5.7%,展現過去兩年持續加速的態勢。運輸與電子業務第二季銷售成長 5.9%,受惠於預期的積壓訂單轉換,以及更強的商務執行與客戶管理。上半年 2.9% 的成長反映約一半業務部門的強勁表現,足以抵銷另一半終端市場疲弱的影響。

  • Semiconductor, aerospace, and data center business segments, comprising approximately 20% of sales, grew double-digits as we gained traction from new product introductions. And commercial branding and transportation, which is about a third of the business, grew approximately 5%.

    半導體、航太與資料中心等業務部門(約占銷售額 20%)在新產品導入帶動下,呈現雙位數成長。而商業品牌與運輸業務(約占三分之一)則成長約 5%。

  • On the other hand, auto was flat in a soft market and consumer electronics was down low single-digit, performing better than the broader consumer device market. SIBG and TEBG, which together represent 80% of our business, delivered 7% growth in the second quarter and approximately 5% growth for the first half.

    另一方面,在疲弱的市場環境下,汽車業務持平;消費性電子則小幅下滑(低個位數),但表現仍優於整體消費裝置市場。SIBG 與 TEBG 合計占我們業務的 80%,第二季成長 7%,上半年約成長 5%。

  • Finally, consumer, which makes up the remaining 20% of our sales, was down 2.1% for the quarter and 1.7% for the half. Point of sales growth in the US remained healthy and has been positive in 18 of the 26 weeks year to date versus seven positive weeks in all of last year. However, tightening of inventory levels at several key retailers in the second half of June more than offset this positive momentum.

    最後,消費品業務占其餘 20% 的銷售額,本季下滑 2.1%,上半年下滑 1.7%。美國的銷售點(POS)成長仍維持健康,今年迄今 26 週中有 18 週為正成長,相較去年全年僅 7 週為正成長。然而,6 月下旬下半月數家關鍵零售商收緊庫存水位,已超過並抵銷了這股正向動能。

  • The second quarter performance caps a strong first half, including organic sales growth of 3.3%, operating margin of 24.3%, and earnings growth of 12%, giving us confidence to raise our full year guidance across all the financial metrics on slide 9. We are raising organic growth expectations from 3% to greater than 3.5% for the year. This is a result of strong commercial momentum in our industrial businesses, supported by increased sales contribution from new product launches, which will more than offset the slight weakness in consumer business.

    第二季表現為強勁的上半年畫下句點,包括有機銷售成長 3.3%、營業利益率 24.3%、以及盈餘成長 12%,使我們有信心在第 9 頁投影片中上調全年各項財務指引。我們將全年有機成長預期由 3% 上調至高於 3.5%。這主要來自工業業務強勁的商務動能,並由新產品上市帶來更高的銷售貢獻所支撐,將足以抵銷消費業務的些微疲弱。

  • EPS guidance is increasing from a range of $8.50 to $8.70 to a range of $8.80 to $8.95 or a growth of 9% to 11% year over year. This increases both the low and high end of the guidance and reflects about a $0.27 increase at the midpoint. The increase in earnings versus the prior guidance is coming from stronger sales growth, productivity gains, and our capital deployment strategy. We now estimate oil inflation to be $150 million to $175 million, up from $125 million previously. This impact is expected to be fully covered by the price actions we implemented in Q2.

    每股盈餘(EPS)指引由 8.50 至 8.70 美元上調至 8.80 至 8.95 美元,年增 9% 至 11%。此次上調同時提高指引區間的低端與高端,中位數約增加 0.27 美元。相較先前指引,盈餘上修主要來自更強的銷售成長、生產力提升,以及我們的資本配置策略。我們目前估計油價通膨影響為 1.50 億至 1.75 億美元,高於先前的 1.25 億美元。預期此影響將由我們在第二季採取的價格措施完全覆蓋。

  • Though oil price cost is dollar neutral, it impacts margin rate by 20 basis points, which we will mitigate through higher volume and better productivity, resulting in operating margin expansion in line with our prior expectations. Given the higher earnings growth and progress in working capital, we have increased our free cash flow guidance by $100 million to a range of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion, implying conversion greater than 100%.

    雖然油價成本在金額上為中性(dollar neutral),但會使毛利率/利潤率下降 20 個基點;我們將透過更高的銷量與更佳的生產力加以緩解,使營業利益率擴張符合先前預期。鑑於更高的盈餘成長與營運資金的進展,我們將自由現金流指引上調 1 億美元至 47 億至 49 億美元區間,意味著轉換率高於 100%。

  • The updated guidance implies second-off organic sales growth of high 3s or better over 2 times macro and margin expansion of about 100 basis points from the prior year, resulting in EPS growth of approximately $0.30 at the midpoint. Sequentially, we expect operating profit to follow typical seasonality with similar phasing between the halves, while earnings will see an impact from tax timing.

    更新後的指引意味著下半年有機銷售成長可達高個位數 3%(high 3s)或更高,約為總體環境(macro)的 2 倍以上;同時相較去年營業利益率擴張約 100 個基點,使 EPS 中位數約增加 0.30 美元。就季節性而言,我們預期營業利益將呈現典型季節性走勢,上下半年節奏相近;但盈餘將受到稅負時點影響。

  • Turning to slide 10, I want to take a minute to highlight the progress we have made since our Investor Day last year. We are at the halfway point, and with the strong 2025 foundation and the updated '26 guidance, we are tracking ahead of Investor Day commitments across all metrics. Our growth trajectory continues to accelerate from commercial excellence and innovation and is on track to exceed the $1 billion above macro commitment. Along with growth, we are seeing good operating margin expansion and are tracking ahead of the approximately 25% margin rate by 2027.

    接著看第 10 頁投影片,我想花一點時間強調自去年投資人日以來我們取得的進展。我們已走到一半里程碑,憑藉 2025 年的強勁基礎與更新後的 2026 年指引,我們在所有指標上都超前投資人日的承諾進度。我們的成長軌跡持續因商務卓越與創新而加速,並有望超越「較總體環境多出 10 億美元」的承諾。除成長外,我們也看到良好的營業利益率擴張,並且進度領先,朝 2027 年約 25% 的利潤率目標邁進。

  • For earnings, we are trending to a double-digit CAGR, reflecting strong operational improvements coupled with below-the-line efficiency. And on cash, we expect to continue the strong trajectory, exceeding our cumulative cash commitment and $10 billion return to shareholders. Overall, we are pleased with the progress we are making and want to thank the team for their relentless focus, determined pace, and strong execution to drive long-term value for our shareholders.

    在盈餘方面,我們正朝雙位數年複合成長率(CAGR)趨勢前進,反映強勁的營運改善以及損益表下方(below-the-line)的效率提升。在現金方面,我們預期將延續強勁走勢,超越累計現金承諾以及回饋股東 100 億美元的目標。整體而言,我們對目前的進展感到滿意,並感謝團隊以不懈的專注、堅定的步伐與強勁的執行力,為股東創造長期價值。

  • With that, let's open the call for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

    Jeff Sprague,Vertical Research Partners。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Nice to see the topline here.

    很高興看到營收表現。

  • Bill, I was wondering if you could just even unpack this a little bit more. There's some great detail on these slides. But just kind of looking at the new product launches and the like closely on track to what you thought, I believe, right, but the revenues are coming in better. So do we have a combination of just upside in new product revenue relative to plan that sounds like cross-sell is a little bit better? And then maybe what role kind of reduced churn is playing in all this?

    Bill,我想請你再多拆解說明一下。這些投影片上的細節很棒。但就新產品上市等進度來看,我相信大致符合你原先的預期,對吧?不過營收表現更好。所以這是否是新產品營收相較計畫有上行空間的組合,同時聽起來交叉銷售也更好一些?另外,降低流失率在這當中扮演了什麼角色?

  • And I guess really what I want to get to at the end of the question is an algorithm of roughly two times macro, do you view that as sort of a sustainable model for 3M going forward?

    我想這個問題最後想問的是:大約「總體環境 2 倍」的成長演算法(algorithm),你是否認為這會是 3M 未來可持續的模式?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • That's a great question. Thank you for that.

    這是個很好的問題。謝謝你。

  • We're very confident in where the growth happens to be. We came in stronger than we had expected in the quarter. It really is a combination of both commercial excellence and innovation excellence. The journey that we've been on for two years that is maturing, I think, very rapidly. It's not really macro tailwind. Macro on the industrial side looks pretty good, but there's some headwinds in the marketplace. It's mostly just internal performance.

    我們對成長的來源非常有信心。本季表現比我們原先預期更強。這確實是商務卓越與創新卓越兩者的結合。我們走了兩年的旅程正在成熟,我認為成熟得非常快。這並不是總體環境的順風。工業端的總體環境看起來相當不錯,但市場上仍有一些逆風。主要還是內部表現所致。

  • And when you look at just a quarter, a little bit better than we had expected. Over the last 12 months at 3%, it's clearly trending above the macro, we think is pretty good, mostly driven in the first half from commercial excellence activities. A lot of the things we've laid out in the past around sales force effectiveness, better performance at the front end, pricing governance, we're pushing a lot with our channel partners, joint business plans, cross-selling is much better.

    如果只看單一季度,確實比我們預期略好。過去 12 個月成長 3%,明顯呈現高於總體環境的趨勢,我們認為這相當不錯;上半年主要由商務卓越活動所驅動。我們過去談到的許多事項,例如銷售團隊效能、前端表現提升、定價治理,我們也與通路夥伴大力推進,包括聯合業務計畫;交叉銷售也好很多。

  • And on loyalty, we are getting better on attrition. We've been tracking this very carefully over the last couple of years. We've seen about 200 basis points of improvement in attrition, primarily coming out of our SIBG business, which would take some time for that to turn, but it's starting to turn. It's still too high. But it's actually making some good improvements here.

    在客戶忠誠度方面,我們的流失(attrition)正在改善。過去幾年我們一直非常仔細地追蹤這項指標。我們看到流失率改善約 200 個基點,主要來自 SIBG 業務;這需要一些時間才會反轉,但現在開始出現轉折。目前仍然偏高。但確實正在取得不錯的改善。

  • As we look to the back end of the year, we do see the innovation engine contributing even more in the back half and, in fact, even greater into 2027 based on just the momentum that we happen to be building here. So we feel pretty good this year. We think we'll be about $450 million above macro in the full year, a little bit better than we thought last quarter, around $340 million, $350 million, and that's largely on the back of good commercial excellence. But the machine churning faster on innovation. So all good signs, and we're very pleased with the performance in the quarter, and we expect our momentum to continue.

    展望今年下半年,我們確實看到創新引擎在下半年將貢獻更多,事實上,基於我們目前正在累積的動能,這股貢獻在 2027 年將更為顯著。因此,我們對今年的表現感覺相當不錯。我們認為全年將比總體環境(macro)高出約 4.5 億美元,較上一季我們原先預期的約 3.4 億至 3.5 億美元略有上修,而這主要來自於良好的商業卓越執行。同時,創新這台機器也在更快地運轉。所以這些都是正向訊號,我們對本季表現非常滿意,並預期我們的動能將持續。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe just unrelated follow-up for Anurag.

    很好。接著可能有一個與此無關、給 Anurag 的追問。

  • Madison not included in the guide, although it's closed. Is there some peculiarity we need to work through before we dial this in? Just curious on why that wasn't included. We're looking at a lower tax rate for the year. Thanks.

    Madison 雖然已經完成交割,但沒有納入指引。在我們把它納入之前,是否有什麼特殊情況需要先處理?只是好奇為什麼沒有包含在內。我們看到今年的稅率較低。謝謝。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Great. Well, thanks for the question, Jeff.

    很好。Jeff,謝謝你的提問。

  • No, we just wanted to provide an apple-to-apple guidance from our last earning call so that we can see how our organic performance has impacted all revenue, EPS, and cash. We have a page at the back of the webcast that has the revenue margin and other information on Madison. It does not have a material impact to the EPS guidance range or the numbers, and we'll incorporate that in our third quarter call. And just for tax, we still plan to be around 20% for the year.

    沒有,我們只是希望提供一個與上次法說會一致、可直接對比(apple-to-apple)的財測指引,這樣大家就能看出我們的有機表現如何影響整體營收、EPS 與現金。我們在網路直播簡報的最後有一頁,提供 Madison 的營收、毛利率以及其他資訊。它對 EPS 指引區間或相關數字沒有重大影響,我們會在第三季電話會議中把它納入。至於稅率,我們仍預計全年約在 20% 左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Davis, Melius Research.

    Scott Davis,Melius Research。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • This Expanded Beam Optics thing seems interesting. But I'm trying to get a sense, I guess, of a couple of things. And one is really materiality and how that scales out. And it looks like it was launched with Microsoft as kind of the partner, so is there an opportunity for that to scale across more hyperscalers and how do you think about that? I'll just leave that as a little bit of an open-ended to help us understand where the upside is in that market.

    這個 Expanded Beam Optics(擴束光學)看起來很有意思。但我想掌握幾個面向。其中一個是它的重要性(materiality)以及未來如何放大規模。看起來它是與微軟作為合作夥伴一起推出的,那麼是否有機會擴展到更多超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)?你們怎麼看?我先把問題留得開放一點,幫助我們理解這個市場的上行空間在哪裡。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So, Scott, thanks for the question.

    Scott,謝謝你的提問。

  • Yes, it's getting quite a bit of excitement, and we're excited internally as well. It's been a technology that's developed several years ago. Just in a nutshell, it's a very durable, dust-resistant, vibration-resistant, fiber-optic connection technology. We've proven with a hyperscaler that it can reduce by about 85% to time to revenue, time to install circuits in a data center. We've got about 100 patents in the space, 50 pending, so it's very well protected and we're very excited about this.

    是的,這項技術引起了相當多的關注,我們內部也同樣感到興奮。這是一項在數年前就已開發出的技術。簡單來說,它是一種非常耐用、抗灰塵、抗震動的光纖連接技術。我們已與一家超大規模雲端業者驗證,它可將資料中心安裝線路、實現營收的時間(time to revenue)縮短約 85%。我們在這個領域已有約 100 項專利、另有 50 項申請中,因此保護非常完善,我們對此非常振奮。

  • It's been in testing for several years with Microsoft. We're very pleased that they have qualified us as a technology for the Azure data centers. That's very encouraging. The revenue this year, it was in a $40-million, $50-million range. We do think it will scale over time. Could be 4 or 5x that or even more over the next several years, depending upon our progress here as well as the adoption of optical technologies and data centers that transitions.

    這項技術已與微軟測試了好幾年。我們很高興他們已將我們認證為 Azure 資料中心可採用的技術。這非常令人鼓舞。今年的營收大約在 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元區間。我們確實認為它會隨時間擴大規模。未來幾年可能成長到目前的 4 到 5 倍甚至更多,取決於我們在此的推進進度,以及光學技術在資料中心轉換與採用的速度。

  • A couple of things are happening here. One, as we continue to develop the technology, each hyperscaler has some uniqueness in their architecture, so that's got to be developed. We've got to scale it, both internally and externally. And earlier this year, we announced that we would double our capacity on EBO this year and another doubling over the next year to 18 months. But even that isn't anywhere near the volume demand in the marketplace. So we're also working with various contract manufacturers. We're pretty developed on one.

    這裡有幾件事正在發生。第一,隨著我們持續開發技術,每一家超大規模雲端業者在架構上都有其獨特性,因此需要針對性開發。我們也必須擴大規模,包含內部與外部的產能。而在今年稍早,我們宣布今年將把 EBO 產能加倍,並在接下來 12 到 18 個月再加倍一次。但即便如此,距離市場需求的量仍相差甚遠。因此我們也正與多家委外代工廠(contract manufacturers)合作。其中一家我們已推進得相當成熟。

  • The third item of this is that we will not be successful as a sole provider here. This is about enabling an ecosystem of partners. So we formed a multi-supplier agreement. There's 44 players in this agreement all throughout the ecosystem. There's multiple hyperscalers, chip manufacturers, connector manufacturers, and it's about how do you enable the whole ecosystem?

    第三點是,我們不可能以單一供應商的身分在這裡取得成功。這關乎於促成一個合作夥伴生態系。因此我們成立了一個多供應商協議。這個協議涵蓋整個生態系共有 44 家參與者。其中包括多家超大規模雲端業者、晶片製造商、連接器製造商,核心在於如何讓整個生態系都能運作起來。

  • So all of those things are in place. We're deep into trials with other hyperscalers. I won't say much more about that. But the TAM this year for EBO Technologies is around $1 billion. We think it'll grow to $2 billion by 2028, $2 billion. It could be beyond that over time. But again, we've got to be very successful in how we scale this product and make sure we've got good quality, deliver on time, all those basic pieces. But we're very encouraged about the progress that we're on, the results that we're seeing, the team has done a great job here, and we're optimistic about the growth in the space.

    所以這些要素都已到位。我們也正與其他超大規模雲端業者進行深入試用(trials)。這部分我就不多說了。但今年 EBO 技術的 TAM(總可服務市場)約為 10 億美元。我們認為到 2028 年將成長到 20 億美元,20 億美元。隨時間推進也可能高於此。但同樣地,我們必須在產品擴產上非常成功,並確保品質良好、準時交付,以及所有這些基本功。不過我們對目前的進展、看到的結果都非常受到鼓舞,團隊在這方面做得很出色,我們對這個領域的成長保持樂觀。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up.

    好的,這很有幫助。接著再快速追問一下。

  • I've kind of given up on China, but it sounds like China could potentially be a growth engine for you guys again. Is that an (laughter) exaggeration? Or how do you view the short-, medium-, long-term kind of China market today versus maybe when you took over the job?

    我其實已經有點放棄中國了,但聽起來中國可能又會成為你們的成長引擎。這是(笑聲)誇大其詞嗎?或者你們如何看待目前中國市場在短期、中期、長期的狀況,相較於你剛接任時的情況?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, good question, Scott. Look, we've been pretty consistent that china has been in a very special market for us. It's performing really well. We've got a great team on the ground. We've organized a little bit differently and uniquely there as well as in India, sort of a hybrid organizational model. We have global business groups, but we stood up a team focused on China, based in China, same thing in India, and we're seeing the results.

    是的,Scott,這是個好問題。你看,我們一直很一致地表示,中國對我們而言是一個非常特殊的市場。它的表現非常好。我們在當地有一支很強的團隊。我們在那裡以及在印度也採取了稍微不同且更具特色的組織方式,算是一種混合式的組織模型。我們有全球事業群,但同時也成立了一支專注中國、以中國為基地的團隊;印度也是同樣做法,而我們正在看到成果。

  • In the second quarter, we were at double-digit growth, first half about 8%. A lot of the performance there, keep in mind, again, we're 50/50 between domestic production and export. The domestic economy from an industrial perspective remains pretty solid in China and we're performing well. A lot of it is localizing NPI and a lot of it is commercial execution on the ground. The team is doing a fantastic job. We have more than 5,000 people there, six factories.

    第二季我們達到雙位數成長,上半年約 8%。請記得,當地表現很大一部分來自於——再次提醒——我們的業務約有一半來自內銷生產、一半來自出口。從工業角度來看,中國的內需經濟仍相當穩健,而我們表現良好。其中很大一部分是將 NPI(新產品導入)在地化,另一部分則是當地的商業執行。團隊做得非常出色。我們在那裡有超過 5,000 名員工、六座工廠。

  • And again, we're developing more localized technology. The export is -- the other 50% of the business, that part of the economy has done pretty well, and we feel pretty good about the results. And we'll continue to press it every quarter as we are in Q3 and the back end of the year. But long-term, we like our position in China. We like the team that's executing in China, the strategy, and we're pretty optimistic about the future in China.

    而且再次強調,我們正在開發更多在地化的技術。出口——也就是業務的另外50%,那部分經濟表現相當不錯,我們對結果感到相當滿意。我們會在每一季持續推進,就像我們目前在第三季以及今年下半年所做的一樣。但從長期來看,我們看好在中國的布局。我們喜歡在中國執行的團隊、策略,並且對中國的未來相當樂觀。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • That's good. Best of luck, guys.

    那很好。祝你們好運,各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

    UBS 的 Amit Mehrotra。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • I was just hoping you could get a little bit more color on NPI in terms of when you typically expect these new products to sort of really inflect. I'm sure it takes a few quarters or maybe a year or two.

    我只是希望你們能就 NPI 提供更多細節,特別是你們通常預期這些新產品何時會真正出現明顯的拐點。我相信可能需要幾個季度,或是一到兩年。

  • And then anything within the NPI in terms of are these truly new products or increasingly still new products for, I know what you call Class 3 products or refresh products, any stop there?

    另外,在 NPI 之中,這些是否真的是全新產品?還是越來越多仍屬於你們所稱的第3類產品(Class 3)或改款/更新產品?能否也談談這點?

  • And then I think there was this expectation that maybe $600 million of outgrowth next year on year three of the plan. Is that still the way to think about the outgrowth from a lot of these actions?

    再來,我想之前有個預期是,明年在計畫第三年可能會有約6億美元的超額成長(outgrowth)。就這些行動帶來的超額成長而言,現在仍然可以這樣看待嗎?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So a bunch of good questions. First, on the last piece around the outgrowth of next year. I mean, look, this year, we originally said we would be $1 billion over the macro, $100 in ‘25, $300 in ‘26, and $600 in ‘27. Clearly, last year, we did a bit better than $100. This year, we'll do more than $300, around $450. So that continues to ramp. So we'll come back early next year and talk about next year. But clearly, we're performing better than the macro. And it's both commercial excellence as well as in innovation or NPI.

    這是一連串很好的問題。先從最後一點、也就是明年的超額成長談起。你看,今年我們原先說會比總體環境(macro)高出10億美元:2025年1億、2026年3億、2027年6億。很明顯地,去年我們做得比1億好一些。今年我們會超過3億,大約4.5億。所以這個趨勢仍在加速上升。我們會在明年年初再回來談明年的情況。但很清楚,我們的表現優於總體環境。這同時來自商業卓越(commercial excellence),以及創新或 NPI。

  • Look, on NPI, the progress has been fantastic. And the chart that we put into the webcast, a very important one, shows this very deep inflection, and we're clearly on the right track here. We typically would launch a product within about from the beginning of development to launch, just running around 250 days. It's down substantially than where it was two years ago. By '27, it's going to be around 20% reduction in overall cycle time, but there's some like nuances in the data here. We're launching more Class 3s, which are shorter in duration, they're more incremental.

    至於 NPI,進展非常出色。我們放在網路直播(webcast)裡的那張圖非常重要,顯示出非常深的拐點,而我們顯然走在正確的軌道上。一般而言,從開發開始到產品上市,我們通常大約需要250天左右。相較兩年前,這已大幅縮短。到2027年,整體週期時間將縮短約20%,但這裡面的數據仍有一些細微差異。我們推出了更多第3類(Class 3)產品,這類產品週期較短、屬於較增量式的改進。

  • But the company is pivoting more to what we call Class 4s and Class 5s. And Class 4s are those that move into adjacent markets, and Class 5s are completely new products for new markets going into. So the team is focusing more on the 4s and 5s. You'll see more impact in the back half of the year as those products that we started to work on a few years ago start to launch this year, become meaningful in the back half. They'll be even more meaningful into 2027.

    但公司正更多轉向我們所稱的第4類(Class 4)與第5類(Class 5)。第4類是進入相鄰市場的產品,第5類則是面向新市場的全新產品。因此團隊更聚焦在第4類與第5類。你會在今年下半年看到更大的影響,因為我們幾年前開始著手的那些產品今年開始上市,並在下半年變得更具意義。到了2027年,它們的貢獻會更加顯著。

  • But the engine is moving, the momentum is really building. The team is executing, I think, fantastically well across all these various dimensions. We're launching more, but there's more ideas coming into the front end of the funnel. So the health of the pipeline is very good. So I think this will continue to build momentum in the back half into next year. So it's what we're known for, material science and driving using material science to make differences in the world, and I think we're doing a good job with that.

    但這個引擎正在運轉,動能確實在累積。我認為團隊在這些不同面向的執行都非常出色。我們推出更多產品,同時也有更多想法進入漏斗前端。因此產品管線的健康度非常好。所以我認為這股動能會在下半年延續並帶到明年。這也是我們的強項——材料科學,以及運用材料科學為世界帶來改變;我認為我們在這方面做得不錯。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks, Bill.

    好的,這非常有幫助。謝謝,Bill。

  • And just as a quick follow-up, when we started, I remember at the Analyst Day, I mean, the story originally was really about sort of getting the gross margin from the low 40s% to the high 40s% where you guys used to be. And obviously, with tariffs and all the developments that have happened, you've still been able to move the needle on the operating margin line, much of your credit, despite sort of gross margin being sort of stuck in the very low 40s%.

    再快速追問一下:當初我們開始時,我記得在分析師日(Analyst Day)上,原本的故事主要是把毛利率從40%出頭拉回到你們過去的40%高段。而顯然在關稅以及過去幾年發生的各種變化之下,儘管毛利率似乎卡在40%出頭的很低區間,你們仍然能推動營業利益率(operating margin)改善,這很大程度要歸功於你們。

  • Is there an opportunity, do you think structurally at least with all that we know now, we can still get back to the high 40% margin on gross margin, if you can just sort of talk about that, just given all the structural dynamics that have occurred over the last couple of years.

    你認為在結構上仍有機會回到毛利率40%高段嗎?能否就此談談,尤其考量過去幾年出現的所有結構性動態?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, I mean, on margins, I mean, you see the chart, I mean, up 500 basis points from a couple of years ago. So we are making really strong progress here. And it's both gross margin, but also importantly in SG&A and IT and other kinds of expenses, indirect costs. We've talked about that quite a bit. There was more to squeeze in it. More cost to take out than we'd anticipated, and we've done a good job.

    你看,關於利潤率,你也看到那張圖了——相較幾年前提高了500個基點。所以我們在這裡確實取得非常強勁的進展。而且不只是毛利率,也很重要的是在 SG&A、IT 以及其他各類費用、間接成本方面。我們已經談過不少。其中還有更多可以擠出的空間。可削減的成本比我們原先預期的更多,而我們也做得不錯。

  • On gross margins, we're tracking to close to mid-40s% right now. I mean, the company has done a good job. Productivity is really solid. We had great productivity in the quarter. We continue to build momentum. I give you sort of the metrics around that. We are reducing our cost of poor quality that came down again. Our operating equipment effectiveness is coming up. We're driving hard on procurement, receiving net savings even after inflation, four-wall spend, we've doubled the number of Kaizen events inside the company.

    就毛利率而言,我們目前的走勢接近40%中段。公司做得很好。生產力表現非常扎實。本季我們的生產力很出色。我們持續累積動能。我可以提供一些相關指標。我們正在降低不良品質成本(cost of poor quality),這項指標又再下降。我們的設備綜合效率(operating equipment effectiveness)正在提升。我們在採購上強力推進,即使扣除通膨後仍取得淨節省;在四牆(four-wall)支出方面,我們把公司內部的改善(Kaizen)活動數量提高到原來的兩倍。

  • Look, there's a ton of opportunity here just running the network, the distribution side better than as it exists today. The next step really as we transform is simplifying, standardizing, automating more of our processes, both on our SG&A side. I talked a little bit about that in the prepared remarks, but also on the factory side, the network side.

    你看,僅僅是把網路(network)與配送端的營運做得比現在更好,就有大量機會。下一步在我們推動轉型時,真正要做的是簡化、標準化,並將更多流程自動化——不僅在 SG&A 端。我在事先準備的發言中也稍微提到,但同樣也包括工廠端、網路端。

  • There is plenty of headroom here in front of us. We see ourselves marching ahead and with an ability to hit the high 40s% over time, but the roadmap is relatively clear, it's along the same lines we've been laying out and talking about over the last couple of years. And as we get into the transformation, we'll see margins continue to expand. So we feel good about the performance and optimistic about the future on margins.

    我們前方仍有很大的提升空間。我們認為自己會持續向前推進,並且隨時間推移有能力達到毛利率40%高段;而路線圖相對清晰,基本上就是沿著我們過去幾年一直在提出與討論的方向。隨著我們進入轉型階段,利潤率將持續擴張。因此我們對目前的表現感到滿意,也對未來的利潤率走勢保持樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    Nigel Coe,Wolfe Research。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • So quite a different quarter. I think Bill or Anurag, you mentioned last quarter, you started off quite weak and it got better through 1Q. I'm just wondering how the 5.4% looked from April through June. Did we start off stronger, got weaker, any color there? And then any updates on how orders and maybe backlog exited the quarter?

    所以這是一個相當不同的季度。我想 Bill 或 Anurag,你們提到上個季度一開始相當疲弱,但在第一季期間逐步改善。我只是想了解 4 月到 6 月這 5.4% 的表現如何。我們是開局較強、之後轉弱,還是有其他情況?能否提供一些說明?另外,訂單以及可能的積壓訂單在季度末的情況有沒有更新?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It was quite good throughout the course of the quarter. It was more linear than we've typically seen. As you said, we started the quarter with very good backlog. If I look at April and May, it was probably 600 basis points better relative to other first two months of prior quarters. So it was quite good as we went into the first two months of the quarter.

    整個季度期間表現都相當不錯。走勢比我們通常看到的更為線性。如你所說,我們以非常好的積壓訂單開啟本季度。如果看 4 月和 5 月,相較於以往季度的前兩個月,大概好 600 個基點。所以在本季度前兩個月,我們的表現相當好。

  • And June, the order momentum kind of sustained as well because we did have price increases, which came with effect from May 1, but just through the course of the quarter, we saw very good linearity and the team executed very well to post the 5.4% growth.

    而 6 月訂單動能也算是延續了,因為我們確實有調漲價格,並自 5 月 1 日起生效;但整體而言,在整個季度中我們看到非常好的線性表現,團隊也執行得非常到位,因而繳出 5.4% 的成長。

  • We did see similar, as I said, order momentum in the second quarter, like the first quarter, which strengthened the industrial side of the business. So our orders were up about 10% for the quarter and backlog about close to 20% up year over year. So as we get into Q3, we feel good visibility for the Q3 and the second-half of the year. Obviously, 75% of our business is booked and ship, so we have to monetize as we go along. But so far, the first two weeks, orders and backlog look good.

    如我所說,我們在第二季也看到與第一季類似的訂單動能,這強化了工業端的業務。因此本季度訂單約成長 10%,積壓訂單年增接近 20%。所以進入第三季時,我們對第三季以及下半年的能見度感覺良好。當然,我們 75% 的業務是「接單即出貨」(booked and ship),因此必須在推進過程中逐步變現。但到目前為止,前兩週的訂單與積壓訂單看起來都不錯。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • That's great. That's really encouraging.

    太好了。這真的很令人鼓舞。

  • And my next question is really, you mentioned the consumer channel destock in the second-half of June. So just wondering how long do you think this destock will happen? Any intel on how inventories look for 3M products? And then any color on how inventories are looking in SIBG and T&E and selling the sell-through color would be helpful as well.

    我下一個問題是,你提到 6 月下半月消費通路在去庫存。想請教你認為這波去庫存會持續多久?對於 3M 產品的庫存水位有沒有任何情報?另外,SIBG 與 T&E 的庫存狀況如何?若能補充一些終端銷售(sell-through/sell-out)的情況也會很有幫助。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So inventory levels in SIBG and TEBG are normal. There's no discernible trend one way or another, not a concern. On CBG, look, I think what was encouraging is to continue to see the point of sale growth or sell-out growth around 2.5% in the quarter, which was very positive, we felt good about that. It was really isolated to a couple of retailers and we saw them step back a little bit in the US channel, step back a little bit in terms of weeks of supply. It was about a one-week delta.

    SIBG 和 TEBG 的庫存水位屬於正常。看不出有任何明顯的單向趨勢,並不令人擔心。至於 CBG,我認為令人鼓舞的是,我們持續看到銷售點(POS)成長或終端售出(sell-out)成長在本季度約 2.5%,這非常正面,我們對此感覺良好。這其實只集中在少數幾家零售商;我們看到他們在美國通路稍微收手一些,供應週數(weeks of supply)也稍微往下調。大約是少了一週的差異。

  • As we come into July and into Q3, we think this will normalize here, especially as retailers stock for back-to-school season, but we'll keep monitoring it and communicate with investors as we need, but we feel it's going to normalize here and help us in the back half of consumer to be flat to up slightly is what our expectation would be in the back half of the year.

    進入 7 月與第三季後,我們認為這種情況會在此趨於正常,尤其是零售商會為返校季備貨;但我們會持續監控,並在需要時與投資人溝通。不過我們認為它會回歸正常,並有助於我們在消費品下半年達到持平到小幅成長,這是我們對今年下半年的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chigusa Katoku, JPMorgan.

    Chigusa Katoku,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

    Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

  • Good morning. Congrats on a great quarter, and thanks for taking my question.

    早安。恭喜你們繳出很棒的一季,也謝謝讓我提問。

  • My first question is on organic growth. So you've raised your organic growth guidance nicely, but it still implies some deceleration in the second half from the strong second-quarter levels. I think pricing should come through when you have some EBO delivery scheduled on the back end. So what's driving this? Is this consumer and electronics or the timing of deliveries or is this prudence?

    我第一個問題是關於有機成長。你們把有機成長指引上調得很不錯,但它仍暗示下半年相較於第二季強勁水準會有所放緩。我認為在下半年有一些 EBO 交付排程時,定價應該會逐步反映出來。那麼是什麼在驅動這個(放緩)?是消費與電子業務、交付時點,還是出於保守考量?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean, look, it's a good question. The fact is the second-half will be accelerating from the first half. You mentioned specifically Q2, but it does continue to accelerate. There are some positives here. We continue to see good momentum in general industrial safety. We see semis, data center, A&D remains pretty strong. Anurag communicated about the roofing granules business is not very big, but we see some improvements in the back half on easier comps. And we do see some tailwind on pricing. For the year, we'll be about a point and a half, which implies about 2 points in the back half. So all those things give us encouragement in the back half.

    我的意思是,這是個好問題。事實上,下半年會比上半年加速。你特別提到第二季,但(成長)確實會持續加速。這裡有一些正面因素。我們持續看到一般工業安全(general industrial safety)有良好動能。我們看到半導體、資料中心、航太與國防(A&D)仍相當強勁。Anurag 提到屋頂礦粒(roofing granules)業務規模不大,但在下半年因比較基期較容易,我們看到一些改善。我們也確實看到定價帶來一些順風。以全年來看,定價約貢獻 1.5 個百分點,這意味著下半年約 2 個百分點。所以這些因素都讓我們對下半年感到鼓舞。

  • Look, the watch items are, number one is going to be consumer electronics. The market data indicates a deteriorating production volume of devices, PCs, tablets in the back half of the year, expected to be down high teens is worse than it was in the first half, so that's a watch area.

    需要關注的項目是:第一,消費性電子。市場數據顯示,下半年裝置、PC、平板的生產量在惡化,預期將下滑十幾個百分點的高段(high teens),比上半年更差,因此這是需要觀察的領域。

  • Auto is stabilizing in general for us, but it's still expected to be down on the build rate year over year in the back half. The auto aftermarket business we still think was going to be soft repair claims is still expected to be down in the back half for the year.

    汽車業務對我們而言整體正在趨於穩定,但下半年在整車產量(build rate)上,預期仍會年減。汽車售後市場業務方面,我們仍認為會偏弱;維修理賠(repair claims)預期在下半年、以全年來看仍會下滑。

  • And look, the US consumer remains cautious. As I just commented, we do expect flat up growth in consumer in the back half, but the consumer remains cautious and value-focused. So those are the things that we're more cautious about, but at the end of the day, we had anticipated being above 3 in Q3, we came in above -- Q2 rather, we came in above 5. We do expect good momentum going into the back half of the year.

    另外,美國消費者仍然謹慎。如我剛才所說,我們確實預期消費品在下半年會持平到小幅成長,但消費者仍然謹慎且更重視性價比。所以這些是我們較為保守看待的部分;但歸根結底,我們原先預期第三季會高於 3%,而我們第二季實際上超過了——更正,是第二季,我們超過了 5%。我們確實預期在進入今年下半年時會有良好動能。

  • Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

    Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much for the color.

    很好。非常感謝你的補充說明。

  • Then as a follow-up, I just was wondering if you could give some a little bit more color on what drove the strength in margins this quarter. Is it mix, price/cost or productivity? You're pretty much at your 2027 margin target right now in the second quarter. So kind of when should we kind of expect to hear about updated targets?

    接著追問一下,我想請你再多談一些本季毛利率/利潤率走強的驅動因素。是產品組合、價格/成本,還是生產力提升?你們第二季的利潤率幾乎已達到 2027 年的目標。那麼我們大概何時可以期待聽到更新後的目標?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks for the question. So we finished the quarter at 24.9% margin, which is the highest we've ever been. And this was 40 basis points higher than we thought where we would be. A large part of it was the volume performance relative to the 3% that came in over 5%, but it was also a continuation on the productivity side as a combination of both G&A and on the supply chain, which had actually very good productivity for the quarter. So I would say it's broad-based between volume and productivity.

    謝謝你的提問。我們本季利潤率為 24.9%,是我們歷來最高水準。這比我們原先預期高出 40 個基點。其中很大一部分來自於量的表現:原本預期約 3%,實際超過 5%;同時也延續了生產力面的改善,包含管理費用(G&A)與供應鏈兩端的綜合效果,而供應鏈在本季的生產力其實非常好。所以我會說,這是由出貨量與生產力共同帶動、且相當全面性的改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

    Chris Snyder,摩根士丹利。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow-up on the data center conversation, specifically the EBO opportunity. I think you said that this could be a $2 billion market by 2028. I'm just kind of curious, what is the competitive environment here, just as we try to think about what share of that $2-billion market could accrue to 3M. It feels like a new technology. That I would think the company is well positioned from a share perspective, but just any color on that?

    我想延續一下關於資料中心的討論,特別是 EBO 的機會。我記得你提到,到 2028 年這可能會是一個 20 億美元的市場。我有點好奇,這裡的競爭環境是怎麼樣的?我們在思考這個 20 億美元市場中,有多少份額可能會歸屬於 3M。這感覺像是一項新技術。我會認為公司在份額角度上具備良好定位,但想請你再補充一些看法?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Chris, look, it's a good question. We do play today inside the data center in a couple of ways. We play on sort of copper networking with our TwinX product sold into data centers. There is a gradual transition from copper to fiber that's happening. It's across the data center, across the racks. It eventually will start to move down to the chip, which today is mostly copper-based solutions. So we've been playing on the copper side. And optics is going to become a bigger share over time of networking in the data centers.

    是的,Chris,你看,這是個好問題。我們目前在資料中心裡有幾種參與方式。我們透過 TwinX 產品在資料中心的銅纜網路連接上有所布局。目前正在發生從銅到光纖的逐步轉換。這個轉換遍及整個資料中心、遍及機櫃。最終也會開始往下延伸到晶片端,而晶片端今天多半仍是以銅為基礎的解決方案。所以我們一直在銅的那一側參與。而隨著時間推移,光學在資料中心網路中的占比會變得更大。

  • Typically, fiber optic connections are point to point. It's very difficult to do that. The ends have to be polished. It's specialized labor. It takes time, it takes effort. And when you're thinking about billions of individual fiber strands being connected in data centers, the market is looking for better solutions here and EBO connections allows them to do this more quickly and seamlessly and more reliably. And I think that's kind of an important differentiator.

    一般來說,光纖連接是點對點的。要做到這點非常困難。端面必須拋光處理。需要專業人力。需要時間、需要投入。當你想到資料中心裡要連接數十億條獨立光纖纖芯時,市場正在尋找更好的解決方案,而 EBO 連接讓他們能更快速、更順暢、也更可靠地完成這件事。我認為這是一個相當重要的差異化因素。

  • As I mentioned earlier, we've got substantial patent protection around the technology, 100 patents today with another 50 that are pending. But we are -- we have and we will continue to license other ecosystem players to manufacture that technology, that EBO, Expanded Beam Optics technology, because that's required by hyperscalers. There's no one company or supplier that will provide all of the demand for these hyperscales, whether it be servers or chips or racks or whatever it happens to be, including EBO connectors.

    如我先前提到的,我們在這項技術上有相當可觀的專利保護,目前有 100 件專利,另有 50 件正在申請中。但我們——我們已經、也將持續授權其他生態系夥伴來製造這項技術,也就是 EBO(Expanded Beam Optics,擴束光學)技術,因為這是超大規模業者(hyperscalers)所要求的。沒有任何一家公司或供應商能夠滿足這些超大規模客戶的全部需求,不論是伺服器、晶片、機櫃或其他任何項目,包括 EBO 連接器。

  • So that's the path that we're on. We've got a small share today. Again, it's in the $40 million, $50 million range of $1 billion. But over time, given our technology and the momentum we think we're building here and our ability to scale, we think our share in that segment will grow materially, and that's what we would expect.

    所以這就是我們正在走的路徑。我們目前的市占還不大。同樣地,在 10 億美元的市場中,我們大約是在 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元的區間。但隨著時間推移,基於我們的技術、我們認為正在建立的動能,以及我們的擴產能力,我們認為在該細分市場的份額將會顯著成長,這也是我們的預期。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • Thank you. I appreciate that.

    謝謝。我很感謝你的說明。

  • And then maybe if I could follow-up on price cost. I would imagine there was some lag on Q2 price cost just given how quickly the commodities inflated and then when we think about the timing of your price actions in April and May. Can you maybe just kind of talk about price cost in Q2?

    然後如果可以的話,我想追問一下價格與成本。我想第二季的價格/成本可能會有一些落後效應,因為大宗商品通膨上升得很快,而你們在 4 月和 5 月才採取價格行動。你能否談談第二季的價格/成本情況?

  • And is it fair to assume that price cost gets better as we look into the back half, just with the incremental price coming through? And while commodity inflation is still certainly persisting, it does seem like a lot of these petrochemical inputs have eased a bit versus what we saw earlier in the spring.

    另外,是否可以合理假設,隨著額外的漲價逐步反映,下半年價格/成本會改善?雖然大宗商品通膨當然仍在持續,但看起來許多石化投入品相較於春季早些時候的水準已經稍微緩和。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, look, it's a great question, Chris.

    是的,你看,這是個很好的問題,Chris。

  • Q2, our price was at 1.6%, so it was about in line with what we'd expected. In the first half, it was around 1%. We started the year a little bit lighter. We do see that increasing in the back half of the year to be about 2%. As Anurag mentioned in his commentary, the impact for us this year embedded in our year is $150 million to $175 million from oil-based increases. That is up from where we were earlier in the year at $125 million.

    第二季,我們的價格(漲價)是 1.6%,大致符合我們的預期。上半年大約是 1%。我們年初起步稍微偏輕。我們確實看到下半年會提高到大約 2%。如 Anurag 在他的評論中提到的,今年對我們而言,油基成本上升對全年嵌入的影響是 1.5 億到 1.75 億美元。這比我們年初時的 1.25 億美元上修了。

  • So to your point, there is a bit of a lag in that kind of rolling through the system, and we're being adaptable here. We're adjusting as we go. We are trying to offset that dollar-for-dollar. It will impact margins, but we do expect we'll offset the higher price of oil on a dollar-for-dollar basis through pricing. We're executing this a little bit better. We got on it faster this time, earlier in the quarter. We're being very careful with the watch volume here, but at the end of the day, I think we're capturing it. So price cost on oil is sort of neutral. Overall, with the other price increases, it will be slightly positive from where we stand today.

    所以如你所說,這類影響在系統中滾動反映確實會有一些落後,我們也在這裡保持彈性。我們會邊走邊調整。我們正努力做到逐美元(dollar-for-dollar)抵銷。這會影響毛利率,但我們確實預期會透過定價,以逐美元方式抵銷油價上升。我們這次執行得更好一些。我們在本季更早就開始動作、反應更快。我們在這裡非常謹慎地觀察量的表現,但歸根結底,我認為我們正在把它抓回來。因此,油價相關的價格/成本大致是中性。整體而言,搭配其他漲價措施,從我們目前的角度看會略為正向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    Nicole DeBlase,德意志銀行。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Maybe just on productivity and stranded costs and growth investments, did anything shift at all in that outlook and anything major to highlight as we consider the cadence in those items between the first half and the second half?

    想請教一下生產力、閒置成本(stranded costs)以及成長投資方面,你們的展望在任何地方有改變嗎?另外,在考量這些項目在上半年與下半年之間的節奏時,有沒有什麼重點需要特別注意?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Overall, Nicole, I would say nothing has changed significantly in terms of the cadence. What's gotten better is productivity, which I'll come to that in a second.

    整體來說,Nicole,我會說在節奏方面沒有顯著改變。改善的是生產力,我等一下會談到。

  • Just on the stranded cost, it's still $150 million for the year, more in the second-half versus the first half. And on investments, we said it's going to be $225 million, and the investments are spread over growth, productivity, and foundation stuff of about $225 million, $75 million in the first half, $150 million in the second-half. So I wouldn't say anything has changed on those two items. But clearly, on the productivity side, as Bill earlier mentioned, on supply chain, it's definitely better than what we have seen through the course of the year.

    先談閒置成本,今年仍然是 1.5 億美元,下半年會比上半年多。至於投資,我們說過會是 2.25 億美元,這些投資分布在成長、生產力以及基礎建設等項目,合計約 2.25 億美元;上半年 7,500 萬美元、下半年 1.5 億美元。所以我不會說這兩個項目有任何改變。但很明顯,在生產力方面,如 Bill 先前提到的,在供應鏈上確實比我們今年以來看到的情況要好。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. Thanks, Anurag.

    好的,了解。謝謝,Anurag。

  • And then just I think you guys did like $3 billion of buybacks in the first half and the prior guidance was for $2.5 billion, so you've already exceeded that. How are you thinking about buyback cadence, if there is any, in the second-half of the year?

    另外,我想你們上半年做了大約 30 億美元的庫藏股回購,而先前的指引是 25 億美元,所以你們已經超過了。你們如何看待下半年的回購節奏(如果有的話)?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We'll continue to be opportunistic and disciplined in just an overall capital allocation framework. As you correctly said, we started the year at $2.5 billion. We found the opportunity to buy more stock. We've done about $3 billion at an average price of about $153 for the first half, and we'll just continue to be opportunistic going forward.

    我們會在整體資本配置框架下,持續保持機會主義並維持紀律。如你正確指出的,我們年初的目標是 25 億美元。我們看到了回購更多股票的機會。上半年我們以約 153 美元的平均價格回購了約 30 億美元,未來我們也會持續把握機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Piyush Awasthi, Citi.

    Piyush Awasthi,花旗。

  • Piyush Awasthi - Analyst

    Piyush Awasthi - Analyst

  • I wanted to focus on safety and industrial segment. Growth in 2Q was very strong. Maybe if we can dig in a bit deeper on the drivers, like how much is healthy in markets versus your own commercial excellence and innovation initiatives. Not sure if there was any pull forward. Ultimately, like I want to get a sense of second-half dynamics, comps get slightly tough, but do you see a path to sustaining this high single-digit growth?

    我想聚焦在安全與工業部門。第二季的成長非常強勁。也許我們可以再深入一點探討驅動因素,例如市場本身的健康成長占比,與你們自身的商業卓越與創新計畫各占多少。不確定是否有任何提前拉貨。最終我想了解下半年動能;比較基期會稍微變得更具挑戰,但你們是否看到一條路徑可以維持這種高個位數的成長?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So just in a nutshell, look, IPI is running around 1.8%, 2%. US is a little bit less than that, around 1%, just over 1%. So clearly, we're growing well above the macro. So I believe it's -- the performance of the organization, both in terms of commercial excellence as well as innovation. Anurag went through some of the underlying drivers across the divisions of SIBG.

    簡單來說,IPI 目前大約在 1.8%、2% 左右。美國略低一些,大約 1%,略高於 1%。所以很明顯,我們的成長遠高於總體環境。因此我相信這是——組織的表現,包含商業卓越以及創新兩方面。Anurag 已經說明了 SIBG 各事業部的一些底層驅動因素。

  • It was pretty broad-based. It was strong across all of what they're in, except for auto aftermarket was a little bit light, which again, it's a big business, so they've had to overcome that. But I think the momentum there is pretty good. As you go into the back end of the year, there's nothing that indicates the industrial market is getting softer. We feel pretty good, as Anurag said, the orders in Q2 was pretty strong, SIBG was up mid-teens, so the order growth rate there is pretty good, backlog is up year over year.

    這是相當廣泛的成長。他們所涉足的各領域表現都很強,唯獨汽車售後市場稍微偏弱;但那也是一個很大的業務,所以他們必須克服這點。不過我認為那邊的動能相當不錯。進入今年下半年,沒有任何跡象顯示工業市場正在轉弱。我們感覺相當良好;如 Anurag 所說,第二季訂單非常強勁,SIBG 訂單成長達到十幾個百分點的中段水準,因此訂單成長率相當不錯,積壓訂單也較去年同期增加。

  • So I think the momentum continues, and again, it really is just a balance of really good commercial excellence. Keep in mind, they -- that team jumped on commercial excellence very early in the process, early into 2024, and have made great progress. I commented earlier about attrition come down or churn coming down, which has been great. Working hard on the sales force, providing sales AI tools, which makes them more effective and efficient.

    所以我認為動能會延續;而且再次強調,這真的就是非常扎實的商業卓越所帶來的平衡。請記得,他們——那個團隊在流程中很早就投入商業卓越,於 2024 年初期就開始,並且取得了很大進展。我先前提到人員流失率下降或客戶流失下降,這非常好。也在銷售團隊上努力,提供銷售 AI 工具,讓他們更有效率、更有效能。

  • A lot of work on cross-selling, that's dropping through the bottom line. So I would characterize this as a lot of really good back-to-basic hustle that's happening in SIBG, but also in other businesses. So we feel good about the momentum, and even with the tough comparisons, we think second-half will be pretty strong growth as well.

    在交叉銷售方面做了很多工作,這些成果也反映到最終獲利。所以我會把這形容為 SIBG 正在進行大量非常扎實、回歸基本功的衝刺,但其他業務也是如此。因此我們對動能感到樂觀;即使面對較具挑戰的比較基期,我們也認為下半年同樣會有相當強勁的成長。

  • Piyush Awasthi - Analyst

    Piyush Awasthi - Analyst

  • Helpful, Bill.

    很有幫助,Bill。

  • And maybe taking a step back, and any additional color on how we should think of 3Q and 4Q in terms of top-line growth and operating margin based on your 2026 guidance? Should we expect like normal seasonality? Not sure if there are like any other dynamics that we need to be aware of.

    另外退一步看,基於你們對 2026 年的指引,對於第三季與第四季在營收成長與營業利益率方面,我們應該如何思考?是否可以預期像往常一樣的季節性?不確定是否還有其他我們需要留意的動態。

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Let me take that question.

    好的。我來回答這個問題。

  • You should see the normal seasonality through the course of the year as well. Our guide says we're going to be over 3.5% for the year. The first half was 3.3%. So clearly, there's going to be acceleration in the second half. You should see a lot more coming from productivity as well, both in the supply chain as well as some of the transformation projects that we have undergoing. We see the benefits of that come through.

    你們也會在全年看到正常的季節性。我們的指引表示全年將超過 3.5%。上半年是 3.3%。所以很明顯,下半年會加速。你們也會看到更多來自生產力的貢獻,包括供應鏈以及我們正在推進的一些轉型專案。我們會看到這些效益逐步反映出來。

  • And both of them will more than mitigate the pickup and stranded costs and investments that we are going to make to ensure that this is sustainable for the future. So I would say it's normal seasonality with the EPS growing by $0.30 in the back half equal between Q3 and Q4.

    而且這兩者將足以、甚至超過地抵銷我們為了確保未來可持續性而將投入的增量成本、閒置成本與投資。所以我會說是正常季節性,下半年 EPS 將增加 0.30 美元,且在第三季與第四季之間平均分配。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

    Deane Dray,RBC 資本市場。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Significant upside in free cash flow, especially compared to your five-year average. Can you talk about any one-timers? There was a reference to benefits of tax timing, but also some nice improvement in days and inventory days. So is that also sustainable and do you have some targets that you can share?

    自由現金流顯著超預期,尤其相較於你們的五年平均。能否談談是否有任何一次性因素?你們提到稅務時點帶來的效益,但同時應收天數與庫存天數也有不錯的改善。所以這是否也具可持續性?你們是否有一些可分享的目標?

  • Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Anurag Maheshwari - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It is very strong cash flow just on the back of very strong operational performance. We obviously have good earnings and the cash conversion cycle continues to do better on the back of lesser inventory. Our inventory has improved by seven days year over year. So it's just fundamental good operational performance that's driving the free cash flow.

    現金流非常強,主要是因為營運表現非常強勁。我們顯然有不錯的獲利,而現金轉換週期也因庫存較少而持續改善。我們的庫存天數較去年同期改善了 7 天。所以推動自由現金流的就是基本面上良好的營運表現。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Great. And you didn't call it out exactly, but can you reference any of the impact on memory, chip pricing, availability, and how is that rippling through your consumer electronics?

    很好。你們沒有特別點出來,但能否談談記憶體、晶片定價、供應可得性所造成的影響,以及這如何傳導到你們的消費性電子業務?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, the consumer electronics was down low single-digits in the quarter, and we do expect the market in the back half of the year to be down -- I think it was like high teens. So -- and I think that's largely related to memory shortages, the high cost of memory. So I think that's rolling through the marketplace. In the quarter, we're performing better than the macro, again, down low single-digits versus where the market happens to be. We expect to outperform in the back half of the year, but the market is getting weaker because of memory.

    嗯,消費性電子本季下滑了低個位數百分比,而我們預期下半年市場將下滑——我記得大概是十幾個百分點的高段。所以——我認為這主要與記憶體短缺、記憶體成本高企有關。因此我認為這正在整個市場中發酵。本季我們的表現優於總體環境,同樣是低個位數下滑,相較於市場的下滑幅度。我們預期下半年仍會跑贏市場,但市場因記憶體因素而走弱。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Linzey, Mizuho Securities.

    Brett Linzey,瑞穗證券。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • My question is on utilization and footprint rationalizations. There's a bit of a tug of war here, right, you've got the secular and cyclical accelerating, but some other areas a little bit more cautious. What's your current capacity utilization across the footprint?

    我的問題是關於產能利用率與據點(產能)整併。這裡有點拉鋸,對吧:長期結構性與景氣循環性需求在加速,但其他一些領域則更為謹慎。你們目前在整體據點的產能利用率是多少?

  • And as you look at some of the organic growth potentially accelerating here in the back half. How are you balancing rationalization versus expansion? Are you thinking there's further actions as we look into '26 and '27 or are you revisiting some of the plans currently given the improvements?

    另外,當你們看到下半年內生成長可能加速時,你們如何在整併與擴張之間取得平衡?展望 2026、2027 年,你們是否認為還需要進一步行動?或是鑑於改善情況,正在重新檢視目前的一些計畫?

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So look, the way we measure utilizations across about 300 assets across the organization, we continue to increase that we're systematically tracking. There's more than half our volume. It's running around 63.5%, 64%. So there's plenty of upside capacity across the overall network in aggregate.

    所以你看,我們衡量產能利用率的方式,是在全公司約 300 項資產上進行衡量;我們持續提升並系統性追蹤。這涵蓋了我們超過一半的出貨量。目前大約在 63.5%、64%。因此就整體網路的合計而言,仍有相當充裕的上行產能。

  • As I mentioned in my remarks, there are certain assets in our network that are constrained and I mentioned one in particular in New Ulm, there's others. New Ulm, which makes electrical connectors, that volume is spiking. So we've got to find ways to unlock capacity. And a lot of it's kind of basic in how you run the lines and the workflow and material flow.

    如我在發言中提到,我們網路中有些特定資產是受限的;我特別提到明尼蘇達州 New Ulm 的一處,還有其他地方也是。New Ulm 生產電氣連接器,那裡的出貨量正在飆升。所以我們必須想辦法釋放產能。而其中很多其實是相當基本的——也就是你如何運行產線、以及工作流程與物料流的安排。

  • Over time, there might be some capital there. But overall, utilization is an upside opportunity for us. But fundamentally, understanding utilization, how it's measured across individual assets, across the hundred plants we have in the network, allows us to then start to look at how do you consolidate between individual assets, sales within a factory, and factories themselves.

    隨著時間推移,那裡可能會有一些資本投入。但整體而言,產能利用率對我們來說是一個上行機會。但從根本上說,理解產能利用率以及它如何在單一資產、以及我們網路中一百座工廠之間被衡量,能讓我們開始思考如何在個別資產之間、工廠內的銷售,以及工廠本身之間進行整併。

  • That is the unlock of what we call transformation that's going to occur over the next three to five years. It's a longer-term journey, but clearly, as we start to wring out capacity, increase capacity utilization here, we have an opportunity to rationalize the network as well.

    這就是我們所稱、將在未來三到五年發生的轉型所帶來的解鎖。這是一段較長期的旅程,但很明顯,當我們開始釋放產能、提高這裡的產能利用率時,我們也有機會對整體網路進行合理化。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Understood. Thanks.

    了解。謝謝。

  • And then just a follow-up on the new product launches. So 92 in the quarter on pace for the 350 plus. What portion is incremental share or TAM expansion versus replacing or cannibalizing existing SKUs? I guess, is there a metric you guys are looking at that looks at net new contribution internally versus gross NPI that might help us bridge some of the opportunity here over the next couple of years.

    接著再追問一下新產品上市。本季推出92項,進度符合全年350項以上的目標。其中有多少是新增市占或TAM(可服務總市場)擴張,多少是替換或侵蝕既有SKU?我的意思是,你們是否有在看某個指標,用來衡量內部的淨新增貢獻相對於新產品導入(NPI)總量,或許能幫助我們在未來幾年把這裡的一些機會串起來。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Brett, let me look, when we talk about growth above the macro, a lot of it is going to be net new growth, and that's sort of what we articulate that. But Class 3 for us is running around 75% of the launches, Class 4s and 5s, which is more new adjacent markets or new if you will, new products for new markets, that's running around 25%. Over time, that will go up to 30%, maybe a little bit better than that. It will be a little bit higher in the industrial side. So we do expect TEBG and SIBG to get to 40% or beyond 40% Class 4s and 5s, but we're still running as a company around 25% today.

    是的,Brett,我這樣看:當我們談到高於總體環境的成長時,其中很大一部分會是淨新增成長,這也是我們表述的方式。但對我們而言,第3類約占推出項目的75%;第4類與第5類——也就是較多屬於新的相鄰市場,或如果你願意說,是面向新市場的新產品——約占25%。隨著時間推移,這個比例會提高到30%,也許還會略高一些。在工業端會稍微更高。因此我們確實預期TEBG與SIBG的第4類與第5類能達到40%或超過40%,但以公司整體而言,目前仍約在25%。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter.

    恭喜本季表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

    Laurence Alexander,Jefferies。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Can you give a high-level assessment of the margin profile in the new product mix relative to your core businesses? Used to be that was a significant gap. And I'm curious if the gap is stable, that is, as your overall margins are rising, is the margin embedded in the new product pipeline also rising? Or should we think about it more as over time, kind of you're lifting -- you're just having a mix shift where the higher mix is what's driving the margin lift, but eventually, though, too, would converge to some equilibrium.

    你能否從高層次評估一下,新產品組合相對於核心業務的毛利率/利潤率輪廓?過去那之間曾有顯著差距。我想了解這個差距是否穩定:也就是說,當你們整體利潤率上升時,新產品管線中所隱含的利潤率是否也在上升?或者我們應該更把它理解為,隨著時間推移,你們是在提升——只是因為組合轉移(mix shift),較高毛利的占比提高在推動利潤率上升,但最終也會收斂到某個均衡水準。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, in a nutshell, look, we expect that we do see that margins on new products over time raise the overall margin threshold. As they start, they launch lower volumes, you'll see just absorption or maybe as they may not come in at the higher margin, but they do over time because new features can drive better pricing. Also, new products can come into the marketplace at lower cost. One of the things the team is really focused on is design to cost. So we are looking to both bring new features, which help us drive price, but also drive costs down in the designs themselves. And that combination should allow us to unlock and does allow us to unlock margins through new product introductions.

    簡而言之,我們確實預期,新產品的利潤率隨時間推移會拉高整體利潤率門檻。在剛開始時,因為上市初期量較低,你會看到吸收(absorption)效應,或者它們一開始可能無法達到較高利潤率,但隨著時間推進會改善,因為新功能可以帶來更好的定價。此外,新產品也可能以更低成本進入市場。團隊非常聚焦的一件事是「以成本為導向的設計」(design to cost)。因此我們同時著眼於導入新功能以推動價格,也在設計本身推動成本下降。這樣的組合應能讓我們透過新產品導入解鎖利潤率,而且確實能做到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Bill Brown for some closing comments.

    謝謝。以上為本次電話會議的問答環節。我現在把電話交回給Bill Brown作結語。

  • William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Brown - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today. And thanks again to all the 3Mers for really, truly delivering another outstanding quarter of great execution and delivering value for our customers and our shareholders. And I want to thank them all for all their efforts. Thank you for joining the call, and have a good day.

    好的,感謝各位今天加入我們。也再次感謝所有3M同仁,確實、真正地交出又一個執行出色的亮眼季度,並為我們的客戶與股東創造價值。我也要感謝大家的所有努力。謝謝各位參與本次電話會議,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

    各位女士先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,並請掛斷您的電話線路。