威達信集團 (MMC) 2008 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to MMC's conference call.

Today's call is being recorded.

Third quarter 2008 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning.

They are available on MMC's website at www.MMC.com.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that remarks made today may include statements relating to future events or results, which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risk and uncertainties.

In particular, references during this conference call to anticipated or expected results of operations for 2008 or subsequent periods are forward-looking statements and MMC's actual results may be affected by a variety of factors.

Please refer to MMC's most recent SEC filings as well as the company's earnings release, which are available on the MMC website.

For additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

I'll now turn this over to Brian Duperreault, President and CEO of MMC.

Good morning.

And thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today.

I'm Brian Duperreault, President and CEO of MMC.

I would like to welcome Vanessa Wittman, our new CFO, who joined us in September.

I'd also like to welcome our operating companies CEOs to today's call.

Dan Glaser of Marsh, Michele Burns of Mercer, Peter Zaffino of Guy Carpenter, John Drzik of Oliver Wyman, and Ben Allen of Kroll.

Also joining us is Mike Bischoff, our head of Investor Relations.

After I make some brief remarks, Vanessa will present our financial results, and then we will all take your questions.

MMC's adjusted operating income in the quarter rose to $217 million, an increase of 50% from the third quarter of last year.

This was all the more impressive, given the current economic environment.

I am very pleased with the continued improvement in profitability at Marsh, and with Mercer's overall strong results.

And it is gratifying to see Kroll continue to improve its profitability as well.

Adjusting for noteworthy items, we have reestablished MMC's earnings growth.

In the first nine months of 2008, adjusted operating income was $963 million, a 22% increase from the year-ago period, and a 9% increase from the 2006 period.

Looking at Marsh's performance in the quarter, it's clear the approach Dan and his team have taken is absolutely the right one for the company.

They have undertaken a series of operational improvements and major initiatives that are geared toward better delivery of services through client segmentation and enhanced placement capabilities.

Ultimately, we believe this will also contribute to improved profitability.

In the quarter, Marsh continued to produce revenue growth with an improved client revenue retention, something we have seen throughout the year.

New business production remains strong.

However, the main driver of Marsh's improved profitability has been expense reduction.

In the quarter, Marsh's underlying expenses on an adjusted basis were down 4%, as a result, even as the soft insurance cycle persisted, Marsh was able to show significant margin improvement.

While Dan and his team still have a lot of work ahead of them, this is a solid start to a multi-year process that will enhance shareholder value.

At Guy Carpenter, difficult market conditions continue to affect results.

Our previously announced restructuring at Guy Carpenter was in response to revenue declines earlier this year.

The restructuring was well-executed and we saw a full impact of expense savings in the third quarter.

As a result, Carpenter maintained its profitability at the same level as the prior year.

This is in contrast with the first quarter of 2008, when we saw a meaningful decline in Carpenter's profitability, as well as in the second quarter, when the implementation of the restructuring plan resulted in only a modest decline in profitability.

And as we look at Carpenter's fourth quarter, we anticipate an increase in operating income on a year-over-year basis.

This is an impressive turnaround, managed by Peter, who was named CEO of Carpenter earlier this year.

Now, let me discuss our consulting businesses.

Mercer's third quarter results were excellent, with a continuation of the strong revenue and earnings growth the company produced in the first half of the year.

Underlying revenue growth in the quarter was 10%, with strong results across all businesses.

Mercer's consulting practices increased 11%.

Outsourcing increased 7%.

And investment consulting and management increased 12%.

Growth and profitability were strong, coupled with margin improvement both for the quarter and for the nine months.

Any way you look at it, Mercer had an excellent quarter.

As I mentioned last quarter, Michele and her team have been sensitive to the changing global economic conditions.

As a result, they began to implement cost containment measures earlier in the year.

Although organic revenue growth remains strong in the quarter, Mercer continued to aggressively manage its expenses.

This included a high degree of scrutiny over new hires, and a concentrated focus on discretionary expenses.

Mercer is also in the process of selectively reducing its headcount levels.

Oliver Wyman makes up slightly less than 30% of our consulting segment.

As you would expect, given current conditions, it has seen a weakening of demand for projects as the year has progressed, particularly in its financial services practice.

While Oliver Wyman was able to produce modest revenue growth in the first half of the year, the rapidly deteriorating business conditions in the past few months resulted in revenue declining more quickly than anticipated.

John and his team are looking for every opportunity to reduce expenses to strike the right balance between near-term results and maintaining the capacity to serve clients when business conditions improve.

Stepping back and viewing MMC's consulting operations as a whole, we are pleased that the strength in Mercer more than offset the weakness at Oliver Wyman.

As a result, we reported an increase in operating income for our consulting segment.

Year-to-date, the increase was 5% on an adjusted basis.

Now, turning to Risk Consulting and Technology.

Since Ben Allen was named CEO of Kroll in February, we have seen improvements at Kroll, particularly in profitability.

Kroll has a range of businesses that are affected differently by economic conditions.

Some businesses, such as corporate investigations and litigation support, are benefiting from the current economic environment.

Conversely, we have seen pressure in other areas, such as mortgage and employment-related background screening.

In the quarter, a number of Kroll's businesses showed revenue growth, including litigation support and data recovery, business intelligence and investigations, and government services.

Overall, profitability for Kroll improved 14% in the third quarter.

Corporate advisory and restructuring is also in this segment.

Earlier this year, we determined that this business did not fit with Kroll's strategy and segregated its operations.

In the last week, we sold Kroll Zolfo Cooper, the US restructuring business, to several of its senior executives in a leveraged management buyout.

We are also very close to reaching agreements to sell the remaining international restructuring operations in similar transactions.

Before I turn it over to Vanessa to give you more detail on the quarter, I would like to take a moment to comment on the current operating environment our clients are facing.

A fundamental transformation is occurring in the global financial system that is affecting multiple industries.

There was an initial traumatic shock, which is evolving into a more chronic but no less serious condition.

Throughout the entire economic and business environment, there continues to be significant pressure.

At MMC, we have been moving swiftly to bring our risk and human capital expertise to bear for clients as well as to capitalize on opportunities the current environment affords a company like ours.

Mercer's launched a client content web portal entitled "Leading Through Unprecedented Times." Using a variety of media, the site demonstrates Mercer's thought leadership on the issues that matter most to its clients, ranging from cost efficiency to employee engagement.

Mercer is also developing a firm-wide integrated client outreach program to systematically identify and address issues raised by the current economic crisis, including the impact on pensions and healthcare.

You can see more about this initiative on Mercer's website, mercer.com.

At Oliver Wyman, although recent events have put significant pressure on the business, our financial services clients will need top tier advice on risk management, governance and approach, strategic cost cutting and navigating the wave of anticipated increased regulation.

Other opportunities include advising private equity investment strategies, increased corporate development and post-merger integration work due to bank consolidation, and working with the public sector as government involvement in the financial services sector increases.

In Kroll, their litigation support and data recovery group is assisting clients who are facing governmental inquiries and an increase in litigation as a result of the crises.

Finally, both Marsh and Guy Carpenter have done an amazing job of helping clients during this unprecedented time in the insurance industry.

Marsh has been in constant communication with thousands of clients through conference calls, an online update center, one-on-one meetings and numerous industry events.

Later this month, Marsh will host a summit in London with clients to discuss issues facing the industry.

Similarly, Guy Carpenter has been working with clients to evaluate the changing market conditions.

The reduction of surplus due to equity market declines, asset impairment losses, and catastrophic events have made capital a precious commodity.

In times like these, clients typically look to reinsurance markets as a source of additional capital.

Let me conclude by saying I am very pleased with the amount of progress we have made throughout MMC in the past nine months.

Although a great deal of effort is still required, we remain on track with our plans to improve profitability across the companies.

We are excited about the future and the many opportunities we have to help our clients in the current difficult economic environment.

Before I turn it over to Vanessa to present our financial results for the quarter, let me say how pleased we are that Vanessa has joined MMC.

She is an experienced finance professional, with a proven track record at large, multi-faceted organizations.

I hope over the coming months you will have an opportunity to spend some time with her.

Vanessa?

Thanks very much, Brian and good morning everyone.

I'm very pleased to join MMC and to be part of Brian's senior management team.

I also look forward to building long-term relationships with the investors and analysts who follow our company.

Just to frame my comments today, I want to cover three areas.

First, I'll walk through a series of items that impacted our third quarter results, especially compared with the third quarter of 2007.

Next, I'll turn to the operational results, including a few corporate items.

Then I'll cover our cash position and liquidity and make some comments on pensions.

Let's start with the three items that make quarter-to-quarter comparisons difficult.

First, investment income; then, discontinued operations; and finally, noteworthy items.

Let's start with investment income.

Investment losses reduced GAAP earnings per share by $0.03 in the third quarter of 2008.

MMC reported an investment loss of $23 million in the quarter, which was primarily due to mark-to-market declines in investments within our private equity portfolio.

This was slightly higher than anticipated when we held our second quarter call because of the write-down on warrants received on a client engagement in the corporate restructuring and advisory group.

The $23 million loss compared with investment income of $78 million in the third quarter of '07, results in a negative swing of $101 million or $0.13 a share on a year-over-year basis.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, investment income should approximate the $10 million of income we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Now let's look at discontinued operations.

Within GAAP earnings, we had discontinued operations in both periods, most significantly the sale of Putnam last year.

As is customary with most large transactions, contingent liabilities, including income taxes, have been retained with the sale of Putnam.

Adjustments result in credits and charges that flow through discontinued operations.

We have seen this in each quarter over the last year and expect to continue to see it in future periods.

In the quarter, discontinued operations was a loss of $0.05 a share.

This was primarily due to a tax adjustment pertaining to the sale of Putnam, and to a lesser extent a loss in the sale of a small component of Kroll's government services operations.

Finally, let's turn to noteworthy items.

On a GAAP basis, EPS from continuing operations was $0.03 a share.

Noteworthy items in the current quarter as described on page 10 of our supplemental schedules were $0.18 a share.

This resulted in adjusted EPS in the third quarter totaling $0.21.

flat with the prior year.

Apart from these noteworthy items, there was also an additional $33 million charge at Marsh resulting from an adverse legal decision rendered last week.

This reduced adjusted EPS by $0.04.

Now let's move on to results of operations.

As Brian stated, adjusted operating income for MMC in the third quarter increased 50%, primarily due to the significant improvement at Marsh.

Within Risk and Insurance Services, Marsh's third quarter revenue increased 3% to $1.1 billion.

Revenue growth on an underlying basis was 1%.

If we exclude fiduciary interest income, as some of our peers do, Marsh's underlying revenue growth was 2% in the quarter.

Marsh's client revenue retention rate, which measures the dollar amount of client revenue retained, was 3 percentage points higher in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis.

New business production was in line with last year's strong results.

While Marsh has been successful in achieving organic revenue growth during very difficult market conditions, it's driving significant growth in operating income through ongoing expense reduction and cost discipline.

For example, when you exclude fiduciary interest income, Marsh generated revenue growth for the third quarter of 2%, while underlying operating expenses on an adjusted basis were down 4%.

Dan's been updating you on the restructuring activities that have been ongoing at Marsh throughout the year, but to briefly recap, headcount reductions were 640 in the third quarter for a total 1150 staff reductions so far this year.

Approximately 250 reductions remain.

The staff reductions in the third quarter led to a severance charge of $50 million, with anticipated annualized savings of $66 million.

These reductions are in addition to the roughly 600 positions that were transferred to Capita in July.

Capita was part of the UK back office outsourcing initiative that was discussed on our second quarter earnings call.

Marsh's adjusted operating income in the third quarter increased by $65 million, or $98 million excluding the charge for the adverse legal decision.

As we indicated on last quarter's earnings call, Marsh's operating margin improvement on an adjusted basis for the first six months of this year was about 500 basis points.

Through nine months, Marsh's margin improvement is now above 500 basis points.

Meeting our goal of a 500 basis point margin improvement for the full year implies a year-over-year improvement of 350 basis points in the fourth quarter.

We think this is a reasonable expectation.

In conclusion, not only the third quarter but the first nine months of the year have been very successful for Marsh.

Now let's look at Guy Carpenter.

Reinsurance rates continued to decline year-over-year, but Carpenter managed well in this difficult environment from a profitability standpoint.

While third quarter underlying revenue declined 10%, adjusted operating expenses declined 12%, allowing Carpenter to maintain its profitability year-over-year.

Our consulting segment's growth in both revenue and operating income in the third quarter was led by Mercer.

Mercer's revenue performance was excellent, 12% reported growth and 10% growth on an underlying basis.

All of Mercer's businesses generated strong underlying revenue growth in the third quarter.

Mercer's operating income rose 24%, resulting in third quarter operating margin improving by more than 100 basis points.

We're very pleased with Mercer's performance in the third quarter.

At Oliver Wyman, continued uncertainty in the US economic environment and difficulties in the financial services industry resulted in a 5% decline in underlying revenue in the quarter.

For the nine months, Oliver Wyman's underlying revenue growth was 1%.

This has led to a decrease in profitability this year, as revenue growth has declined more quickly than anticipated.

As Brian mentioned, Oliver Wyman continues to look for opportunities to reduce expenses, while protecting long-term franchise value.

Before we leave the consulting segment, just a reminder that last year's fourth quarter results for Oliver Wyman included success fees of roughly $30 million.

We do not anticipate replicating these fees in this year's fourth quarter.

Within our Risk Consulting and Technology segment, Kroll's 14% growth in operating income was more than offset by the decline in corporate advisory and restructuring.

Kroll, which represents 86% of this segment's revenue and all of the segment's profitability, had revenue of $218 million in the third quarter, an increase of 4% compared with last year.

The corporate advisory and restructuring group, which was separated operationally from Kroll in the first quarter this year, had a revenue decline of 25%.

Even though expenses are greatly reduced on a year-over-year basis, it reported a modest loss, similar to the first two quarters of 2008.

Now, let me briefly discuss several corporate items.

The corporate restructuring charge of $49 million in the quarter reflects the near completion of an initiative MMC began two years ago to reduce occupancy costs in our headquarters building in New York.

MMC sold five floors in the fourth quarter of 2006, realizing a gain of $74 million.

MMC continues to own over half this building.

As planned, an additional five leased floors have now been vacated, resulting in the charge.

The charge represents the future rent on non-cancelable leases net of estimated sublease income.

As we have mentioned frequently, you will see variability quarter-to-quarter in MMC's tax rate.

Based on the first three quarters, the tax rate on adjusted operating income for the full year should be approximately 30%.

Now let's turn to liquidity and pensions.

Our liquidity position is strong.

We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $1.5 billion, an increase of $300 million since June 30th.

MMC typically generates strong operating cash flow in the fourth quarter.

Net debt was $2.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, compared with $2.4 billion at the end of the second quarter.

We do not have any additional debt maturing until June 2009.

MMC has no outstanding commercial paper or bank loans and we continue to maintain a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility that remains undrawn.

Let me say a few words about pensions.

On a global basis, MMC operates defined benefit plans in approximately 25 countries, although the US and the UK plans account for the vast majority.

Going into 2008, MMC's pension plans were overfunded on a GAAP basis by $942 million.

During 2008, we will contribute about $275 million for the full year.

We monitor funded status for both GAAP and statutory purposes very closely.

Every year we remeasure assets and liabilities in our defined benefit pension plans at year-end.

A significant driver of our pension liabilities and expense is the discount rate, which we calculate using a proprietary bond model.

An important input into the model is long-term AA rated bond rates.

We won't have a firm view of next year's pension expense until we perform the remeasurement at year-end.

Before I turn it back to Brian, I'd like to comment directly on our third quarter results in relation to the expectations of the investment community.

The range of First Call estimates for the third quarter was $0.23 to $0.37 of adjusted EPS.

We think this range is indicative of the difficulty analysts had in estimating this particular quarter, both because of last year's unusual third quarter, and because of the very strong second quarter results this year.

Based on the average FirstCall adjusted EPS estimate of $0.32 per share, we believe the components of the gap are $0.01 from Oliver Wyman, $0.02 from investment income, $0.04 from the adverse legal decision, and $0.04 from Marsh's underlying results.

While there was a range of estimates, Marsh's revenue in the quarter generally met Street expectations; however, Marsh's operating margin was lower than the average expectation.

We think this gap in expectations was due to the difficulty in estimating profitability in Marsh's seasonally smallest quarter.

Going forward, we don't think this will be an issue.

And with that, let me turn it back to Brian.

Thank you, Vanessa, and we're ready for questions.

Thank you, Mr.

Duperreault.

Today's question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically.

In the interest of fairness, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and perhaps a follow-up.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

We will pause for one moment.

Thank you.

We'll take our first question from Keith Walsh.

Please state the name of your company before asking your question.

Hi, good morning, everyone, this is Keith Walsh at Citi.

Good morning, Keith.

Thanks.

Two questions for Dan.

First, on the hub strategy, if could you just give us a quick update there and just broader.

Seems like it's easier for underwriters to do business with you guys with this hub strategy that you've been talking about.

Is there an ability for you to extract some of those economics and then I have a follow-up.

Okay.

Just to recap the hub strategy, which is really predominantly a US strategy, because if you recall, London sort of acts as a natural hub in Europe and in other parts of the world.

So the creation of the hubs, first of all, is geared towards clients.

So the idea is to create concentrated placement and product expertise, so we would be able to innovate and deliver more value for clients by creating more competition amongst insurers, negotiating better terms and conditions and having a better crack at achieving contract certainty.

But as you mentioned, Keith, there's also value for carriers in these hubs.

It gives them greater efficiency, lower costs, the potential for things like standardized submissions and so we definitely are in negotiations with carriers to extract some of the economics that you mentioned.

We call that initiative within Marsh the enhanced commission strategy and it's too early to call right now.

But I'm hopeful with the discussions that we've been having with carriers that they recognize the value.

Of course, any value that we will be able to negotiate with carriers will be fully disclosed to clients and I would reiterate, it's not contingent on volume or profitability.

It will be based upon the value that we create.

Okay.

That's great.

And then second question, a few weeks back you guys formed MMC Agency to serve the smaller client segment.

Is this going to be an outlet for your M&A dollars since there's really no longer any large deals out there it seems like.

And are you going to be accepting additional forms of compensation such as supplementals from this new agency business.

Thanks.

I'm very excited about the Marsh & McLennan Agency and I love the rebirth of the name Marsh & McLennan in the agency brokerage space and I can tell you that the -- our colleague base is very enthusiastic about that as well around the world.

So the Marsh & McLennan agency will be one of the largest agents in the United States within a very short period of time.

It's geared to the notion of that in these small and lower corporate segment including some personal lines as well, that it's more likely to be a product solution than any kind of let's say bespoke solution.

You just can't economically develop bespoke type of solutions in the lower corporate space.

Our goal will be to negotiate with carriers to develop terrific Marsh & McLennan products, which we will then market heavily into the lower corporate segment.

We clearly within that, because on that basis, as an agent we're more representing carriers than clients, actually our customers will be -- we would be marketing to customers throughout the United States, but we will be an agent of a limited number of carriers and clearly we believe that we will be able to optimize commission income by adopting an agency strategy, rather than a full brokerage strategy in that space.

In terms of M&A, yeah, it's a highly fragmented market.

I see different numbers around the numbers of agents that exist in the United States and you see a big swing with regard to that.

But suffice to say that there are tens of thousands of agents in the US who generally have revenues of $5 million, brokerage revenues, $5 million and less, so there's an awful lot of mom and pop shops and we do believe we can be a consolidator in that space.

Thanks a lot.

Next question, please.

We'll take our next question from Meyer Shields.

Please state the name of your company.

Meyer Shields calling from Stifel Nicolaus.

Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

Can you talk a little bit about what the turmoil at AIG implies for revenues and expenses over the next 12 months?

Could you just repeat it again, Meyer.

Just want to make sure I heard that right.

Sure.

The turmoil at AIG, I'm wondering how you're looking at what that implies in terms of incremental revenues and incremental expenses for the next couple --

The AIG situation?

Yes.

Okay.

I'll give you my point of view and Dan and Peter may have a different one.

Certainly the situation has been topical for our clients.

We've spent a great deal of time speaking to clients about it and, you know, it basically is maybe a leading indicator of what's happening overall in the marketplace, which is this decline in the capital.

It's a -- all market changes are different.

This one is all asset-driven and AIG has had problems with its asset base, not necessarily in its insurance companies, but overall its ability to trade.

But that has -- you know, we see drops in assets across the entire industry taking what I call the surplus surplus out.

So what I think it does, is it certainly changes a carrier's point of view about its own capital base.

The price of risk starts to go up as a result.

You can't avoid it.

You can't raise capital in this current market, so you have to be much more careful about it.

You have to preserve it.

You still have event-driven issues that could come across at any moment, that could take capital out of this industry without an ability to replace and so you've got to protect yourself.

You buy more reinsurance.

You start -- you don't cut the prices like you did before.

Where this goes, it's very difficult.

This is -- as I said, all these changes are different.

This, in addition to being an asset-driven change, is happening in the middle of a global significant recession.

Global recessions tend to keep volume down, because our prices in many classes of business are driven by sales or payroll, things that are sensitive to economic activity.

So I think all of that's going to put some balance in this thing.

But generally speaking, it should stop the declines and start to change the market.

But it's very difficult to predict the magnitude of it when it really starts to appear and how long it goes.

Thanks.

Hope that helps.

Thank you.

If I could turn to Vanessa really quickly.

You gave us 350 basis point margin improvement number for the fourth quarter.

Is there a reason to expect the year-over-year margin expansion to decline, or is that just what it would take to hit the 500 basis points full year number?

You want us to take this Vanessa?

Sure, Meyer, I just want to make sure.

The connection is a little bit rough.

You're asking about the 350 basis points for the fourth quarter?

Right.

And then I couldn't quite hear the second piece of it.

The question is why would it be less than, say, the 500.

Oh, I apologize.

Maybe Dan could do that.

Dan do you want to take that?

Sure.

I think what you have to look at is when you look at last year, within Marsh, you'll recall that Marsh had a difficult second and third quarter.

As the first quarters and the fourth quarters were actually not so rough and so beginning to lap some of the benefit through expense reductions and the like.

So we do fully expect to see substantial margin improvement in the fourth quarter, and on balance, the absolute margin will be significantly better than, say, the third quarter, which is our lowest margin quarter.

And I think that 350 is just an attempt to say listen, when we started the year, and I think in our first quarter call we talked about getting to maybe 200, 250 basis points in the year.

We were outperforming that very quickly, and getting to about 500, and I think my team and I would view a 500 basis point improvement for the year as being a job well done.

Okay.

I got it.

Thank you.

Next question, please.

And our next question is from Alain Karaoglan.

Please state your company.

Good morning.

Alain Karaoglan with Bank of America.

Just following up, Brian, on the question regarding the environment and I don't know if Peter wanted to address it.

Are you seeing increased demand for reinsurance from your customers at Guy Carpenter and are you seeing sort of decreased capacity and tightening of terms by the reinsurance industry or is it just yet conjecture and thoughts?

Yeah, well, Peter, let's hear it.

For January 1st we're starting to see increased demand in exploring alternative reinsurance structures.

As Brian mentioned in his opening statement, not only do we have asset impairment, we've had catastrophe losses, there's rating agency implications, so we think the supply will be less at January 1st and there's a lot of exploration for alternatives to come up with solutions for surplus enhancement, through reinsurance, as well as mitigating volatility in one's portfolio.

How that will play out, we'll figure that out probably over the next 30 to 60 days, and we do think that there's going to be less supply because many reinsurers are going to really look at the capital preservation very closely and want to be able to trade forward in the event of another major catastrophe.

So we'll learn more over the next 30 to 60 days but we expect to see supply down and pricing start to move in a band but move upward.

And if I could with the numbers question, shareholders equity, Vanessa, declined in the quarter by about $600 million from the second quarter, if I did the math right.

What's causing that?

Largely due to foreign exchange, which should wash out over the course of the year.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Next question, please.

We'll take our next question from Matthew Heimermann.

Please state your company name, sir.

JPMorgan.

Good morning everybody.

Good morning, Matt.

Couple questions.

Hopefully these are quick.

But for Vanessa, could you just remind us with respect to FX, how much of that is hedged and then of what isn't hedged, is there a proportional impact on revenue expenses or is there some arbitrage in there?

Well, we don't hedge our FX because we have a natural hedge in our business, both because it's an international business and because the international components have revenues coming in in foreign currencies, but expenses going out in both foreign currencies and dollars.

And as we have said in prior calls over the course of the year, it may be up or down for a quarter but over the course of the year, we have generally been flat as to impact on foreign exchange.

So if there was, let's say, a 500 basis point change in currency translation, '09 versus '08, you wouldn't expect any impact on your numbers?

Matt, this is Mike Bischoff.

Really, we've seen that over the last 20 years and over an entire year you will not see it.

You may see it a little bit in one quarter and it may go in the other direction in other quarters.

In fact, in this quarter, we already had foreign exchange going against Mercer.

So Michele's results for Mercer were even stronger when you look at it.

Foreign exchange in the quarter was de minimus for us.

The other thing you have to take into account is there's a number of major currencies and actually they're starting to work in different directions.

The sterling for example now is weakening, whereas the euro is stronger.

Unlike some of our competitors that may be doing different things, this has never really been an issue for MMC.

Okay.

Maybe I'll follow offline for a deeper discussion on that, then.

The other question that I had is a follow-up to Dan's comments earlier, but I mean, my question would be if there's a shortage of supply and it -- how much do prices need to rise before you would start to pull capital market's capacity back into the business which seems to, whether it's independent of companies, aligned with companies or into companies, would seem to be the logical source of supply, so how much -- what do you think the clearing price is going to be such that you start to incent people to increase supply?

That's really an interesting question.

I don't know.

As I said, this one is a little different.

At the moment it doesn't look like there's capital market supply available.

It just doesn't seem that way.

On the reinsurance side, we see alternate style capital movements more than we see in the -- on the primary.

There, we're not seeing -- we're seeing it basically decline.

We don't see alternative capital market solutions coming into the market.

So if that goes away then you're back to the classic straight investments in insurance companies and I -- I'm not smart enough to predict when that comes back.

Right now, we don't see it.

Okay.

That's fair.

And then just one request, it's just historically you haven't put the depreciation and amortization in the press release, would just be helpful in going through numbers if you might do that going forward.

Okay.

My one request for Vanessa, if I may.

We got it.

Make a note of it.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Next question, please.

Jay Cohen, please go ahead sir, with your company name.

Jay Cohen from Merrill Lynch.

Hey, Jay.

Hey, Brian.

Two questions.

The first is, if you could talk a bit more about this I guess seasonality issue.

I guess a lot of us were surprised that the margin fell so much from the second quarter and if you could talk about that, why that won't be an issue going forward.

And then separately, this is more of a picky one, but there was a $10 million credit for a payment received from the US Investigation Services.

Could you just tell us what that was?

Okay.

Dan will take the first one which is the seasonality issue.

Vanessa will take the second.

Okay.

And for years our third quarter at Marsh, the revenues are lower than the first, second and fourth.

I mean, so if you look at our business, the first, second and fourth revenue are generally pretty consistent.

The third quarter, as I said, for years, is a bit lower and expenses as you would expect are pretty consistent throughout the year, and so it is not unusual for us at all to have the margin dip in the third quarter and in fact, I think on the second quarter call I alluded to that, that we didn't expect -- that we expected a softer third quarter, just because the revenues are lower in the third quarter.

It's not a big renewal date in the third quarter.

So that pattern you'll see going forward as well.

But, you know -- but I would take the view that when compared to last year, we've had a very significant increase in actual profitability when you take out the adjustments and the effect of the E&O claim.

On your second question, Jay, I think we mentioned in the second quarter's call, we gave you a head's up that there was a pending agreement around Mike Cherkasky and we filed an 8-K on his agreement and the $10 million credit, that's where that $10 million is coming from.

Oh, okay.

That's helpful.

Thanks a lot.

You're welcome, Jay.

Thanks.

Next question, please.

Brian Meredith, please go ahead with your company name.

UBS.

Good morning, everybody.

Good morning, Brian.

Hey, Brian, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about this -- the economic slowdown we're seeing globally.

What impact, what headwind do you think it's going to have on your revenue growth here going forward over the next 12 months and maybe break it down between Marsh and Mercer.

Yeah, I'll break it out.

I'll throw a few other ones in while I'm at it.

As I said earlier about this change in market conditions, there's a bit of countervailing forces here.

I would expect price change would be positive, not negative.

That's my expectation.

How much, I don't know.

That, coupled with I think some of Dan's initiatives should help the revenue side.

The flip side of that is it's a recession and clients are facing price cuts across many of their -- many of their spends, so looking at the spend for insurance and insurance consulting, it's going to be pressurized going the other way.

But overall, I guess I'm more positive than negative, put it that way and throwing in Carpenter, we would expect Carpenter, certainly year-over-year to show some improvement just in general, because it was such a bad year to start with.

But in addition to that, I think some of the initiatives that they've taken in terms of revenue, client attention, client increase, we'll start to see.

So, overall I guess I'm generally positive about the insurance side of the business.

Let's take consulting, it's two parts.

Mercer dominating this to some degree, 70/30.

Mercer, I must say, has done just a fabulous job this year under really difficult circumstances.

Third quarter was a great quarter.

Can that be sustained?

I'm not betting that it would be sustained.

It's just unlikely, given the market conditions, whether we can keep growing at that pace.

But we still think we have some growth in Mercer.

So we would expect positive revenue growth in Mercer, but not at the rates we've been seeing.

Oliver Wyman, well, it's just unlikely that Oliver Wyman's going to show positive growth rates.

We're down to 1% and turning negative in Oliver Wyman.

That will run its course.

It will come back a little bit as the year unfolds and as companies start to come to grips with the new world they're living in.

They will reach out to consultants.

I believe that and I think there will be a time when we'll start to see that come back, as it always has.

Overall, I think, there will be positive growth in the consulting segment.

But Oliver Wyman will dance in the positiveness that's taking place in the other side.

And that brings me to Kroll, and as I mentioned in the prepared remarks side, Kroll has a diversified portfolio, interestingly enough.

And where it -- where it touches litigation, investigation, et cetera, well, look at litigation--never sleeps, it seems to be recession proof.

We would expect that they would see quite a bit of activity.

Anything having to do with mortgages or employment will probably go down.

But overall, I think given expense controls, we should see a positive growth in their volume on the top line and I think with expense controls we can manage through this.

So those are three segments, each one of them for different reasons, I feel reasonably positive about for '09.

Great.

And then a quick question for Peter.

Peter, when you talk about the increased demand in the reinsurance marketplace, is that both casualty and property or is it more focused on the property other than casualty, given some of the capital issues we're seeing with primary companies.

Well, right now, the answer is both and I'll tell you why.

Property, clearly retentions were higher with Hurricane Ike.

We've taken a look at some of the modeled results and of course even RMS revised their estimates upward last week so clients are taking a look at their property retentions and the amount of reinsurance they're purchasing at different return periods.

But then again, back to the original comments around capital, looking at different type of pro rata or surplus relief structures are really across the entire portfolio, which would include casualty.

Property will move first on any rate and casualty usually follows but we're starting to see more surplus relief structures as we look into January 1st and in 2009.

Thank you.

Okay.

Thank you.

Another question.

Dan Farrell, your company name, please.

Thank you.

Fox-Pitt Kelton.

Couple questions.

Firstly, can you just refresh us, the mix of revenue at Marsh, fee versus commission.

And then can you also just talk about all of your ongoing efforts to replace loss contingent revenue and tell us how that's going.

And then finally, can you talk a little bit about what your view is for expense leverage heading into 2009.

You've taken out a lot of expenses this year.

Broadly speaking, how much more on that end do you think you have to go as we head into next year?

Okay, Dan, I guess that's everything, right.

So Dan, you want to take it?

Okay.

So let me make sure I get this in the right order.

But if we start with your -- the first premise or maybe the second premise in terms of lost contingents, we're not going to be replacing $850 million of contingent income.

That's a function of the past.

It's a different Marsh.

Having said that, we will grow our revenue.

We'll certainly grow our profitability in the short-term and we will develop ways of growing this business, but I'm not pining for the days of contingencies or after lost contingencies.

In terms of fee versus commission, the US business and international business are sort of mirror images of each other that arrive at about a 50/50 split in our total business.

It's weighted toward fee in the US and it's weighted toward commission internationally, but at the end result we arrive at about 50/50.

And in terms of expense leverage, we have done an awful lot of things this year.

They were the proper things to do.

There's a lot more for us to do.

So when I look at what we've done through the course of this year, you arrive at a figure of around $350 million between the reductions in corporate that happened or that were identified in late fourth quarter last year and the early first quarter of this year.

We've eliminated, as we've noted before, about 1700 positions year-to-date and in addition to -- within that, we've outsourced about 700 positions.

I do think that there are some additional reductions to go.

As Vanessa mentioned, in the fourth quarter, we would expect there to be about another 250 headcount reductions.

But where my management team and I are going through the business, some parts of the business with a scalpel and some parts of the business with an axe, and we're not done, and we have a philosophy of there's always a smarter way and so, you know, I don't want to give you the impression that the expense reductions have run their course.

I think there's a fair amount more that we can do on the expense side.

To give you an example, we would think that this is a continual process, a long-term process of improving the business.

Just bear in mind, we're only 10 months into what I think is a multi-year turnaround until this business is truly optimized.

Just in the last couple of months, we've worked through some real estate efficiency savings, some IT savings, we've managed IT.

We've managed T&E for example very aggressively this year.

And so there's a significant amount of savings to go.

So I would say ultimately, while we're hoping for some revenue growth and some lift, we don't need revenue growth, anything more than very modest revenue growth and we'll still be able to drive profitability for certainly a another couple of years.

Okay, Dan.

Thank you.

Another question, please.

Our next question will come from Jay Gelb.

Please state your company.

Thanks.

I had a question for Dan.

Dan, how much does AIG account for the premium placement within Marsh?

Well, AIG's our largest trading partner and if you look at the entire segment of risk and insurance, it equates to about 12%.

Okay.

Thanks.

And as my sense is that many customers will be looking for alternatives.

To what extent does that create a drag on the expense for Marsh and is there any potential revenue offset for that?

Yeah, there's a couple of things.

One, I don't think it creates a drag on expense because we're not hiring any more people to take on the additional work when our customers seek alternatives, and I think to be fair in the -- at least in these initial couple of months, while alternatives are being sought, there's not a huge movement.

I think there is some diversification and in fact that might be a smart way for companies to proceed.

And I'm not talking about AIG specifically, I'm just talking about insurance capital in general, there's a value to diversification.

So on the one hand, yes, there's more work and that will suck up some of the underutilization or the excess capacity that we have, but we don't need to hire anybody else so you won't see anything on the expense side and on the other side, in terms of revenue, I think both -- I would hope that AIG would ultimately recognize that they're causing us to do more work and, therefore, maybe we can negotiate some better commissions here and there.

I think in the overall the total business, as is commonly known in the industry, AIG tends to be one of the poorer payers on a commission basis.

So it would be natural in diversification to get a little bit of lift through diversification.

Okay.

Thanks.

And then just a quick question for Vanessa.

I know you gave a comment on pensions.

Directionally, based on what you know today, would you expect pension expense to be directionally higher, lower or roughly in line for 2009?

Well, as you know, the remeasurement takes place at the end of the year and it's got so many variables in it that I wouldn't be comfortable commenting.

But we would expect it to be roughly in line, if we were to redo it today.

Thanks very much.

Okay.

Jay, thank you.

Let me take maybe a last question or two more.

Terry Shu has the next question.

Please state your company name.

Terry Shu from Pioneer Investments.

I want to go back to the question of margins.

Brian, if you can talk about longer term margin expectations, if you look at Marsh now, your margins relative to your two large peer brokers, Aon and Willis, it's meaningfully lower and years ago, in prior cycles Marsh with contingent commissions had close to industry-leading margins.

So should we -- how should we think about it?

Should broker margins, given comparable mix, be similar over time or not?

How should we look at it?

You talk about having the opportunity to expand margins over a multi-year period.

But do you reach some optimal level?

Can you expand on that, please?

First of all, they're too low.

I mean, to start with.

I think the trajectory is in the right direction and we should have medium term, long-term goals.

Medium term goal is to be comparable.

We're not yet.

That's where Dan's work continues.

That's why I said it was a multi-year process.

I like the trajectory.

You can't get there overnight.

We have a model change.

Obviously you go from a contingency dependent models to standard models, you have to adjust yourself.

I think they've done a real good job of changing the company almost from top to bottom, the hubbing approach, et cetera, are indications of that activity.

So in the near term the goal is to get do comparable levels and we believe that we should be superior.

We think with the brand name, the client activity that we have, loyalty, et cetera, our international spread, our -- and the quality of our people all would tell me we should be superior.

But we've got to get there and we're not going to get there overnight but I like the trajectory.

That means though that you have many hundreds of basis points of improvements yet to come to be comparable because you lag by a meaningful margin now.

That is absolutely correct.

Yeah, we have hundreds of basis points of improvement to do.

So can we see that in a two-year period?

Three-year period?

Do you have kind of a time type of goal?

Well, multi-year.

You know, multi-year is more than one.

It's not going to be a decade.

It won't be that long.

But it will take us a couple years.

As you can imagine, it's very difficult to predict this exactly.

I mean, we moved it 500 this year in a soft cycle.

We're talking about it over an entire cycle of good and bad.

So there's going to be that part of it too.

So market conditions have to allow some more rapid growth if that's possible.

But it's not an impossible task.

There's no reason why our margins would be less than anybody else's.

But we do have to get there and changing this company from top to bottom does create a -- it does create a little bit of friction which we have to clear out.

There's no reason why we can't get it.

One quick question on Guy Carpenter.

Why are you not a bit more optimistic that revenues can turn up with you said increased demand in reinsurance and all the Bermuda reinsurers saying we're going to see a very strong market and if you could also comment on the AON/Benfield combination, what does that do to the reinsurance brokerage landscape?

Well, let's -- when I did my earlier talk about the tour, you know, the company, and I did say that we expect that Guy Carpenter to have a positive increase next year.

Right.

I do.

And so I'm not saying anything else.

We would expect that Guy Carpenter would show improvement in its top line and certainly in its bottom line.

No question about it.

AON/Benfield, well, we lost a competitor.

That's never a bad thing.

So that -- all that has to shake out, but for us, it should be positive in terms of clients looking to balance their portfolio between players, so it's a good thing.

So you wouldn't agree with some of the reinsurer management, Bermuda company comments that we're going to see a super firm upside cycle in reinsurance.

From their lips to God's ears.

Look, this market--it's a different hard market than we've ever seen.

Harder.

We would expect changes to take place.

But it's asset-driven into the teeth of a recession.

I can't predict that.

I don't know what that means in terms of super hard or long-term or short-term but all the signs point to a change and so that's the one thing we know, that there's a change in the wind.

That's taking place and it remains to be seen how the economic events of this world, whether capital comes back into the marketplace, is there another event, all those things will have to play out for us to really know where it goes.

Thank you.

Okay, Terry.

Thank you.

I think we probably should close the call with that.

I want to thank everybody for their attention, in appreciation and look forward to talking to you again.

Thank you.

This concludes today's MMC conference call.

Thank you for joining us.

And have a wonderful day.