Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Martin Marietta's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website.

歡迎參加 Martin Marietta 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音，可以在公司網站上重播。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Jacklyn Rooker, Martin Marietta's, Director of Investor Relations. Jacklyn, you may begin.

現在，我將會議交給主持人、馬丁瑪麗埃塔投資者關係總監 Jacklyn Rooker 女士。傑克琳，你可以開始了。

Good morning, and my pleasure to welcome you to Martin Marietta's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Ward Nye, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Nickolas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，我很高興歡迎您參加 Martin Marietta 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長沃德‧奈 (Ward Nye)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Jim Nickolas。

Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws in connection with future events, future operating results or financial performance. Like other businesses, Martin Marietta is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We undertake no obligation, except as legally required to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether resulting from new information, future developments or otherwise.

今天的討論可能包括美國證券法定義的與未來事件、未來營運績效或財務績效相關的前瞻性陳述。與其他企業一樣，馬丁瑪麗埃塔也面臨風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果大不相同。我們不承擔任何義務，除非法律要求公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明，無論是由於新資訊、未來發展或其他原因。

Please refer to the legal disclaimers contained in today's earnings release and other public filings, which are available on both our own and the Securities and Exchange Commission's website. We have made available during this webcast and on the Investors section of our website, supplemental information that summarizes our financial results and trends.

請參閱今天的收益報告和其他公開文件中包含的法律免責聲明，這些免責聲明可在我們自己的網站上和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。我們在本次網路廣播中以及我們網站的投資者部分提供了總結我們的財務表現和趨勢的補充資訊。

As a reminder, all financial and operating results discussed today are for continuing operations. In addition, non-GAAP measures are defined and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix to the supplemental information as well as our filings with the SEC and are also available on our website.

提醒一下，今天討論的所有財務和經營結果都是為了持續經營。此外，非公認會計準則指標在補充資訊附錄以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了定義並與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標進行協調，也可在我們的網站上查閱。

Ward and I will begin today's earnings call with a discussion of our full year operating performance, 2025 outlook and supporting market trends. Jim Nickolas will then review our financial results and capital allocation, after which Ward will provide closing comments. A question-and-answer session will follow. Please limit your Q&A participation to one question.

沃德和我將在今天的財報電話會議上開始討論我們的全年營運表現、2025 年展望和支援市場趨勢。然後，Jim Nickolas 將審查我們的財務結果和資本配置，之後 Ward 將作結束語。接下來是問答環節。請將您參與的問答限制為一個問題。

I will now turn the call over to Ward.

現在我將電話轉給沃德。

Thank you, Jacklyn. Good morning, and thank you all for joining today's teleconference. Over the years, the disciplined execution of our proven strategic operating analysis and review or store plan has significantly transformed our company by providing Martin Marietta with a coast-to-coast footprint, majority of our products and services, going to areas exhibiting the highest growth potential by demonstrating our ability to manage through uncontrollable circumstances.

謝謝你，傑克琳。早安，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。多年來，我們嚴格執行行之有效的策略營運分析與評估或商店計劃，為馬丁瑪麗埃塔提供了橫跨東西海岸的覆蓋範圍，將我們的大部分產品和服務帶到了最具增長潛力的地區，展示了我們應對不可控情況的管理能力，從而顯著改變了公司。

By adhering to our value over volume approach to meet customers' needs without discounting the value of our own assets, and generating a higher return on those assets and by showing the resiliency of our business model, no matter the macroeconomic backdrop. As a result, our business is superbly positioned for near, medium and long-term success.

透過堅持「價值重於數量」的方針來滿足客戶的需求，同時不降低我們自身資產的價值，並從這些資產上獲得更高的回報，並展示我們商業模式的彈性，無論宏觀經濟背景如何。因此，我們的業務已做好充分準備，可實現近期、中期和長期的成功。

2024 was no exception to those themes as we once again delivered record aggregates financial performance and successfully completed nearly $6 billion of portfolio enhancing transactions. Operationally, our team successfully managed many exogenous factors, including persistent inclement weather, tighter-than-expected monetary policy and related modest private construction slowdown.

2024 年也不例外，因為我們再次實現了創紀錄的整體財務業績，並成功完成了近 60 億美元的投資組合增強交易。在營運上，我們的團隊成功應對了許多外部因素，包括持續惡劣的天氣、比預期緊縮的貨幣政策以及相關的私人建築業務略有放緩。

The team's steadfast commitment to managing what they could control, namely commercial excellence, cost management and portfolio optimization enabled the fourth quarter delivery of record profits, margin expansion and record cash flow from operations.

該團隊堅定不移地致力於管理他們能夠控制的領域，即商業卓越、成本管理和投資組合優化，使得第四季度實現了創紀錄的利潤、利潤率擴大和創紀錄的經營現金流。

Before discussing our full year results and 2025 outlook, I'll highlight a few notable takeaways from 2024's fourth quarter. With the weather better cooperating in fourth quarter, earnings growth and margin expansion resumed, evidenced by our record fourth quarter consolidated gross profit of $489 million, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $545 million reflecting an increase of 8% and consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%, an improvement of 210 basis points.

在討論我們的全年業績和 2025 年展望之前，我將重點介紹 2024 年第四季的一些值得注意的要點。隨著第四季天氣狀況好轉，獲利成長和利潤率擴大，表現為第四季度綜合毛利創歷史新高，達到 4.89 億美元，綜合調整後 EBITDA 達到 5.45 億美元，成長 8%，綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 33%，提高了 210 個基點。

Pricing gains more than offset the impact of inventory management efforts from fourth quarter record aggregates gross profit per ton of $7.92, an increase of 12% and aggregates gross margin of 33%, an improvement of 120 basis points.

價格上漲遠遠抵消了庫存管理措施帶來的影響，第四季集料毛利達到創紀錄的每噸 7.92 美元，成長 12%，集料毛利率達到 33%，提高了 120 個基點。

In addition to our impressive financial results, we successfully completed three aggregates bolt-on acquisitions in Southwest Florida, Southern California, in West Texas, all of which are attractive source identified geographies.

除了令人印象深刻的財務表現外，我們還成功完成了位於西南佛羅裡達州、南加利福尼亞州和西德克薩斯州的三項附加收購，這些地區均是極具吸引力的資源來源地。

Our full year results were notable given the year's extreme weather and a difficult macro economy. Despite these headwinds, we established new aggregates and Magnesia Specialties records specifically.

儘管今年的天氣極端，宏觀經濟形勢艱難，但我們全年的業績仍然十分出色。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍創下了新的骨材和鎂質特種產品的記錄。

Aggregates revenues and gross profit both increased 5% to $4.5 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively. Aggregates gross profit per ton increased over 9% to $7.58. Magnesia Specialties revenues increased 2% to $320 million and Magnesia Specialties gross profit increased 10% to $107 million.

總營收和毛利分別成長 5% 至 45 億美元和 14 億美元。每噸骨材毛利成長 9% 以上，達到 7.58 美元。 Magnesia Specialties 的營收成長 2%，達到 3.2 億美元，Magnesia Specialties 的毛利成長 10%，達到 1.07 億美元。

Martin Marietta's safety and enterprise excellence culture have long underpinned our financial results. I'm pleased to report we achieved our best full year safety incident rates in our company's history, inclusive of our newly acquired businesses. Notably, this marks our eighth consecutive year of a world-class lost time instant rate and fourth consecutive year of a world-class total injury incident rate.

馬丁瑪麗埃塔的安全和企業卓越文化長期以來一直支撐著我們的財務表現。我很高興地報告，包括我們新收購的業務在內，我們實現了公司歷史上最好的全年安全事故率。值得注意的是，這標誌著我們連續第八年保持世界一流的損失時間率，連續第四年保持世界一流的總傷害事故率。

2024 surpassed 2021 as our most active M&A year ever with nearly $4 billion of aggregates-led acquisitions and over $2 billion of noncore asset divestitures. We selectively pruned cyclical and nonstrategic cement and ready-mix concrete operations and redeployed the proceeds into pure aggregate assets in attractive markets adding nearly 1 billion tons of aggregate reserves to our footprint.

2024 年將超越 2021 年，成為我們有史以來最活躍的併購年份，總計近 40 億美元的整體主導收購和超過 20 億美元的非核心資產剝離。我們選擇性地削減了週期性和非戰略性的水泥和預拌混凝土業務，並將收益重新部署到有吸引力的市場的純骨料資產中，為我們的足跡增加了近 10 億噸的骨料儲量。

These proactive portfolio actions created a more durable business, increased the gross profit contribution from our core aggregates product line and enhanced our margin profile, all while maintaining a strong balance sheet for continued acquisitive growth.

這些積極主動的投資組合行動創造了更持久的業務，增加了我們核心骨材產品線的毛利貢獻，提高了我們的利潤率，同時保持了強勁的資產負債表以實現持續的收購成長。

Looking ahead, we expect the reshape portfolio, together with our fourth quarter results will provide a solid foundation for profitable growth in 2025 and beyond. Specifically, our full year 2025 aggregate shipment guidance of 4% growth at the midpoint assumes that strong infrastructure and data center demand, a full year of 2024 acquisition contributions and normalized weather patterns will all more than offset the slowdown in private construction, which is primarily interest rate.

展望未來，我們預期重塑的投資組合加上第四季的業績將為 2025 年及以後的獲利成長奠定堅實的基礎。具體而言，我們對 2025 年全年總出貨量預期為中位數成長 4%，假設強勁的基礎設施和資料中心需求、2024 年全年的收購貢獻和正常化的天氣模式都將抵消私人建築放緩的影響，這主要是利率問題。

Our full year 2025 pricing guidance of 6.5% growth at the midpoint, while lower than the last three years of double-digit growth remains notably higher than the long-term industry average of 3% to 4%. These revenue drivers, combined with moderating cost inflation, contributions from our cement and downstream businesses, Magnesia Specialties and the full year of contributions from our 2024 acquisitions underpin our 2025 full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.25 billion at the midpoint, a 9% improvement compared with prior year.

我們對 2025 年全年定價的預期中位數為成長 6.5%，雖然低於過去三年的兩位數成長，但仍明顯高於 3% 至 4% 的長期產業平均值。這些收入驅動因素，加上成本通膨放緩、我們水泥和下游業務、鎂質特種產品的貢獻以及我們 2024 年收購的全年貢獻，支撐了我們 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 預期，中位數為 22.5 億美元，比上一年增長 9%。

Moving now to end markets. We'll start with infrastructure, our most aggregates intensive and often countercyclical end market, both building and maintaining our nation's heavy infrastructure remains a bipartisan national strategic priority. Three years into the five-year Infrastructure and Investment and Jobs Act or IIJA, Nearly 70% of highway and bridge funds remain to be invested, indicating robust multiyear tailwinds.

現在轉向終端市場。我們將從基礎設施開始，這是我們最密集的、往往逆週期的終端市場，建造和維護我們國家的重型基礎設施仍然是兩黨的國家戰略重點。《基礎設施投資與就業法案》（IIJA）實施五年，目前已經過去三年，仍有近 70% 的公路和橋樑資金有待投資，這表明未來幾年都將保持強勁的順風勢頭。

And importantly, according to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association or ARTBA, public highway pavement and street construction is expected to continue to grow reaching $128.4 billion in 2025 compared with $119.1 billion in 2024, an 8% increase. Notably, based on recent state and government contract awards, ARTPA's 2025 transportation construction market outlook shows Texas, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina, Key Martin Marietta states are among the largest markets expected to show growth.

而且重要的是，根據美國道路和運輸建設者協會 (ARTBA) 的數據，公共高速公路路面和街道建設預計將繼續增長，到 2025 年將達到 1284 億美元，而 2024 年為 1191 億美元，增長 8%。值得注意的是，根據最近的州和政府合約授予，ARTPA 的 2025 年交通建設市場展望顯示，德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州、北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州、基馬丁瑪麗埃塔州是預計將增長的最大市場之一。

Moving now to nonresidential construction. Artificial intelligence, or AI, continues to drive unprecedented demand for digital and energy infrastructure, as evidenced by recent announcements from Microsoft and the new administration in Washington.

現在轉向非住宅建築。人工智慧（AI）繼續推動對數位和能源基礎設施的空前需求，微軟和華盛頓新政府最近的聲明證明了這一點。

Microsoft expects to invest $80 billion in fiscal 2025 on the construction of data centers that can handle AI workloads with over half of that spend in the United States. Moreover, the new administration recently announced Stargate, which aims to simplify permitting and significantly boost data center construction in the US through a massive investment of up to $500 billion.

微軟預計將在 2025 財年投資 800 億美元用於建造可處理人工智慧工作負載的資料中心，其中超過一半的支出將在美國。此外，新政府最近宣布了「星際之門」計劃，旨在簡化許可程序，並透過高達 5,000 億美元的巨額投資大幅促進美國資料中心建設。

The build-out is already underway with the data center in Alvin, Texas, that Martin Marietta is supplying from its December acquisition of [RJs] Gravel Company.

位於德州阿爾文的資料中心建設已在進行中，該資料中心由馬丁瑪麗埃塔公司於 12 月收購的 [RJs] Gravel Company 提供。

Moreover, dodge construction networks warehouse were footage starts for the 12 months ended November 2024, inflected positively for the first time since December 2022. And Martin Marietta was recently awarded the material supply for two large Amazon warehouse projects in North Texas and Fort Myers, Florida, respectively.

此外，道奇建築網路倉庫的開工量截至 2024 年 11 月的 12 個月，自 2022 年 12 月以來首次出現正成長。馬丁瑪麗埃塔公司近期分別獲得了位於北德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州邁爾斯堡的兩個大型亞馬遜倉庫項目的材料供應權。

Shifting to residential activity. Affordability and availability remain key issues impacting single-family demand, neither is expected to resolve in the near term given the higher for longer interest rate environment. Relative to the availability issue alone, realtor.com recently estimated that the US housing market is underserved by approximately 7 million homes. That said, when single-family residential construction inevitably rebounds.

轉向住宅活動。可負擔性和可用性仍然是影響單戶住宅需求的關鍵問題，鑑於長期利率環境較高，預計這兩個問題在短期內都無法解決。僅就可用性問題而言，realtor.com 最近估計，美國住房市場缺口約為 700 萬套。儘管如此，單戶住宅建設不可避免地會反彈。

Martin Marietta's leading positions in key Sunbelt MSAs provide attractive opportunities to capitalize on structurally underbuilt markets with pent-up demand.

馬丁瑪麗埃塔在陽光地帶主要大都市統計區 (MSA) 中的領先地位為利用結構性建設不足且需求被壓抑的市場提供了誘人的機會。

In summary, record state and federal investments, reshoring, the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, the long-awaited single-family housing recovery should provide multiyear shipment stability and provide a healthy pricing environment for years to come.

總而言之，創紀錄的州和聯邦政府投資、回流、人工智慧基礎設施建設、期待已久的獨戶住宅復甦，應該會為未來的多年出貨量提供穩定，並提供健康的定價環境。

I'll now turn the call over to Jim to discuss our full year financial results and liquidity. Jim?

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆，討論我們的全年財務表現和流動性。吉姆？

Thank you, Ward, and good morning, everyone. The Building Materials business generated full year 2024 revenues of $6.2 billion, a 4% decrease and gross profit of $1.8 billion, a 6% decrease. The decline in both metrics, which are comparing year-over-year results is due to the February 2024 divestiture of our South Texas Cement and related concrete businesses, along with shipment declines in all product lines partially offset by acquisition contributions.

謝謝你，沃德，大家早安。建築材料業務 2024 年全年營收為 62 億美元，下降 4%，毛利為 18 億美元，下降 6%。這兩項指標的下降（與去年同期相比）是由於我們於 2024 年 2 月剝離了南德克薩斯水泥和相關混凝土業務，以及所有產品線的出貨量下降，但被收購貢獻部分抵消。

Our aggregates product line achieved all-time record revenues, gross profit, gross margin and unit profitability in 2024. Contributions from acquired operations and strong things more than offset lower shipments. Importantly, this was the second consecutive year of margin expansion. And the fourth year in the last [six] experiencing a price/cost widening. Over those six years, margins have expanded 170 basis points.

我們的骨材產品線在 2024 年實現了歷史最高的收入、毛利、毛利率和單位獲利能力。來自收購業務和強勁產品的貢獻足以彌補出貨量下降的影響。重要的是，這是利潤率連續第二年擴大。這是過去六年中第四次出現價格/成本差距擴大。在這六年中，利潤率擴大了 170 個基點。

In 2024, Aggregates gross profit per ton improved 9% to a full year record of $7.58 per ton. Cement and Concrete revenues decreased 29% to [$1 million] and gross profit decreased 40% to $260 million, again, driven primarily by the divestiture of our South Texas cement plant and its related concrete operations.

2024年，骨材每噸毛利提升9%，達到全年每噸7.58美元的最高紀錄。水泥和混凝土收入下降 29% 至 [100 萬美元]，毛利下降 40% 至 2.6 億美元，主要歸因於我們南德克薩斯水泥廠及其相關混凝土業務的剝離。

While Cement margins held up nicely, the ready-mix business experienced margin compression from Q2 through year end due to higher input costs, including aggregates incidents, outpacing pricing growth. Asphalt and paving revenues decreased 2% to $869 million due to slower market demand.

雖然水泥利潤率保持良好，但由於包括骨材事故在內的投入成本上升超過了價格增長，預拌混凝土業務的利潤率從第二季度到年底一直受到壓縮。由於市場需求放緩，瀝青和鋪路收入下降 2% 至 8.69 億美元。

Gross profit decreased 7% to $101 million due to lower revenues and higher aggregate input costs, partially offset by lower liquid asphalt costs. Magnesia Specialties established all-time records for revenues and gross profit of $320 million and $107 million, respectively, as benefits from strong pricing more than offset lower chemical and lime shipments.

由於收入下降和總投入成本上升，毛利下降 7% 至 1.01 億美元，但液態瀝青成本下降部分抵消了這一影響。Magnesia Specialties 的營收和毛利分別創下 3.2 億美元和 1.07 億美元的歷史新高，強勁定價帶來的好處足以抵消化學品和石灰出貨量的下降。

Turning now to capital allocation and liquidity. We achieved record fourth quarter cash flows from operations of $685 million, an increase of 23% compared with the prior year quarter, driven by improvements in working and deferred income tax payments due to the internal revenue service providing disaster tax relief for the line of businesses affected by Hurricanes Debbie and Helene. Our capital allocation priorities remain focused on prioritizing value-enhancing acquisitions, remeasured in our business and returning capital to shareholders.

現在來談談資本配置和流動性。我們第四季的營運現金流達到創紀錄的 6.85 億美元，比去年同期成長 23%，這得益於美國國稅局為受颶風黛比和海倫影響的業務線提供災難稅減免，導致營業稅和遞延所得稅支付有所改善。我們的資本配置重點仍集中在優先考慮增值收購、重新衡量我們的業務以及向股東返還資本。

In 2024, we returned $639 million to shareholders through dividend payments and share repurchases. Even with significant M&A activity, we ended the year with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3 times, well within our targeted range of 2 to 2.5 times. Our strong balance sheet offers ample flexibility to execute on our active M&A pipeline and pursue value-enhancing investment opportunities.

2024年，我們透過股利支付和股票回購向股東返還了6.39億美元。即使有大量的併購活動，我們今年年底的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率仍為 2.3 倍，遠低於我們 2 至 2.5 倍的目標範圍。我們強勁的資產負債表為我們執行積極的併購計劃和尋求增值投資機會提供了充足的靈活性。

Finally, I will close my prepared remarks with some views on tariffs. The depth, breadth and duration of tariffs actually levied remains highly uncertain. As a result, our 2025 guidance assumes no impact from tariffs.

最後，我將以一些關於關稅的看法來結束我的演講。實際徵收關稅的深度、廣度和持續時間仍存在很大的不確定性。因此，我們的 2025 年指引假設關稅不會產生影響。

There are some situations where tariffs might enhance the company's profitability and others, which may lower it. The vast majority of our supply chain is sourced from US locations. The company was served well by that during the supply chain shock of the COVID era and should serve us well going forward.

在某些情況下，關稅可能會提高公司的獲利能力，而在其他情況下，關稅可能會降低公司的獲利能力。我們的供應鏈絕大部分來自美國。在新冠疫情時期的供應鏈衝擊期間，該公司從中獲益良多，未來也將為我們帶來良好的服務。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Ward.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給沃德。

Thank you, Jim. To conclude, we're proud of our strong fourth quarter financial results and industry-leading safety performance. Thanks to our team's collective commitment to Martin Marietta's vision and strategic priorities, we have deliberately built an increasingly resilient, highly productive coast-to-coast aggregates-led business positioned to grow unit profitability through various end market demand environments.

謝謝你，吉姆。總而言之，我們對強勁的第四季財務業績和業界領先的安全業績感到自豪。感謝我們團隊對馬丁·瑪麗埃塔的願景和戰略重點的共同承諾，我們已著力打造一個日益具有彈性、生產率極高的、以骨料為主導的、橫跨東西海岸的業務，旨在通過各種終端市場需求環境來提高單位盈利能力。

We are enthusiastic about Martin Marietta's prospects in 2025 and beyond. The fundamental strength and underlying drivers of our differentiated business, proven strategic plan, strong balance sheet with significant opportunities for growth and long history of successfully managing through economic cycles, provide us great confidence in our ability to continue delivering strong financial, operational and safety performance.

我們對馬丁瑪麗埃塔 2025 年及以後的前景充滿信心。我們差異化業務的基本實力和潛在驅動力、行之有效的戰略計劃、強勁的資產負債表、巨大的成長機會以及長期成功管理經濟週期的歷史，使我們對繼續提供強勁的財務、營運和安全業績的能力充滿信心。

If the operator will now provide the required instructions, we'll turn our attention to addressing your questions.

如果操作員現在能夠提供所需的指示，我們就會專注於解答您的問題。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.(Operator Instructions) Trey Grooms, Stephens.

我們現在開始問答環節。特雷格魯姆斯、史蒂芬斯。

Thank you. As we look at the '25 guide word, could you walk us through any of the puts and takes around the overall guidance for the year, including your aggregates price and volume outlook?

謝謝。當我們查看 25 個指導詞時，您能否向我們介紹今年整體指導的利弊，包括您的總價格和數量前景？

I'm happy to, Trey. Thanks for the question. Look, at the outset, I'd say we're taking a pretty measured approach to the guide this year. Look, there's uncertainty relative to monetary policy and whatever the other policy fluctuations may be during the course of the year. Look, at the guidance roofs conservative. And frankly, I hope that it is, we can come back and adjust for upside later.

我很高興，特雷。謝謝你的提問。首先，我想說，我們今年對指南採取了相當謹慎的態度。你看，貨幣政策以及一年中其他政策的波動都存在不確定性。看起來，指導價格有些保守。坦白說，我希望如此，我們可以稍後回來進行調整。

Relative to volume in the first instance, obviously, we're looking at low single digits, and that includes, by the way, Trey, a full year of acquisition contributions. So if you think about what that's going to look like [BWI] I closed last April.

相對於首先的交易量，顯然我們看到的是較低的個位數，順便說一下，這其中包括 Trey 全年的收購貢獻。所以如果你想想那會是什麼樣子[BWI]我去年四月關閉了。

So we'll see that fully in the first quarter. If we're looking at the transactions that we did in West Florida, in Southern California and Texas, those will clearly be additive to quarters one through three. So again, if you're just thinking about the cadence on that.

因此我們將在第一季全面看到這一點。如果我們看看我們在西佛羅裡達州、南加州和德克薩斯州進行的交易，這些交易顯然會對第一季到第三季產生補充作用。所以再說一次，如果你只是在考慮那方面的節奏。

But if we think about end users right now, I mean, overall, I think we should expect mid- to high single digits growth in infrastructure. I think we're probably looking at low single digits at least right now relative to both nonres and res.

但如果我們現在考慮最終用戶，我的意思是，總的來說，我認為我們應該預期基礎設施將出現中高個位數的成長。我認為，至少目前，相對於非房地產和房地產，我們可能看到的是低個位數。

And if we think about what the builders are under those, look, I do think infrastructure should stay strong. I mean there's 70% of the dollars from IIJA that are still yet to come in our sector. And as a practical matter, that has to roll out in '25 and '26. So that should be pretty constructive.

如果我們想想那些建設者在做什麼，我確實認為基礎設施應該保持強勁。我的意思是，IIJA 的 70% 的資金還未流入我們的產業。從實際情況來看，這項計劃必須在25年和26年推出。所以這應該是非常有建設性的。

The other thing that we're seeing is nice, steady, consistent and, frankly, growing activity relative to data centers. I know there was some concern. There was a blip the other week relative to DeepSeek. We've actually seen most AI and others come back and double down since then. So we think that should be very healthy this year.

我們看到的另一件事是，相對於資料中心而言，活動良好、穩定、一致，而且坦白說是不斷成長。我知道有人擔心。上週，DeepSeek 出現了一個小故障。事實上，從那時起，我們已經看到大多數人工智慧和其他技術捲土重來，並且加倍投入。因此我們認為今年的情況應該會非常健康。

Frankly, we're not planning for notable residential recovery in 2025, given the higher for longer mortgage rates that we're seeing because we think that will just continue to affect monthly affordability. That said, in some instances, we are seeing that homebuyers are simply getting accustomed to this higher interest rate environment. So we're going to see how that plays out.

坦白說，考慮到我們看到的長期抵押貸款利率較高，我們並不認為 2025 年會出現明顯的住宅復甦，因為我們認為這將繼續影響每月的負擔能力。儘管如此，在某些情況下，我們看到購屋者只是逐漸適應了這種較高的利率環境。所以我們將看看事情會如何發展。

But here is something that I think is notable, and I mentioned it in my prepared remarks, I mean, clearly, we're seeing green shoots in warehousing. The [Claver in] Texas facility that we have, the Fort Myers facility that we have are both large jobs. And that's not the type of activity that you would have seen for the majority of last year. So we've been waiting for warehousing to find bottom, we think it has.

但我認為有一點值得注意，我在準備好的發言中提到過，我的意思是，很明顯，我們看到了倉儲業的復甦跡象。我們在德州克拉弗的工廠和邁爾斯堡的工廠都是大型工程。這並不是去年大部分時間所能看到的活動類型。因此，我們一直在等待倉儲業找到底部，我們認為它已經找到了。

The other thing that I think is important to keep in mind is, as we go throughout the year, we're going to start lapping pretty weather-impacted quarters last year. I mean if you think about it, Q2 was really a washout in our Southwest division, particularly in Dallas-Fort Worth, which is the company's largest marketplace. And Q3 was a real challenge for us and portions of the East, including the Carolinas, which is a notable marketplace for us as well.

我認為需要牢記的另一件重要的事情是，隨著全年的推進，我們將開始回顧去年受天氣影響較大的幾個季度。我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，你會發現第二季度我們西南分部的業績確實慘不忍睹，尤其是達拉斯-沃斯堡，這是該公司最大的市場。第三季對我們以及卡羅來納州等東部部分地區來說都是一個真正的挑戰，卡羅來納州也是我們一個重要的市場。

So if you think about the way it rolls up, I mean the gross profit guidance shows double-digit unit profitable growth and nice gross margin expansion, and it's going to be driven by pricing and what we think will be moderating inflation.

因此，如果你考慮它的整體情況，我的意思是毛利指引顯示兩位數的單位獲利成長和良好的毛利率擴張，而且它將受到定價和我們認為的緩和通膨的推動。

Now relative to price, price is going to be a little bit different this year as you simply think about the cadence because particularly in the cement market, we saw most cement producers roll their price increases back to April 1, which meant as a practical matter of a lot of ready-mix players who are looking for that.

現在相對於價格，如果你簡單考慮一下節奏，今年的價格將會有所不同，因為特別是在水泥市場，我們看到大多數水泥生產商將價格上漲時間推遲到 4 月 1 日，這對於許多預拌混凝土生產商來說實際上意味著他們正在期待這種情況。

So what we've seen in our world is most hot mix and others had price increases effective January 1 as you become accustomed to. Their portions of the ready-mix community, in fact, most of it that are seeing April 1 price increases. So the price increases will be outsized relative to what history has been. Pricing, I'm convinced is still very solid, will be attractive for here.

因此，我們所看到的是，大多數熱門商品和其他商品的價格都從 1 月 1 日起上漲，正如大家所習慣的一樣。事實上，預拌混凝土社區中的大多數人都會看到 4 月 1 日的價格上漲。因此，與歷史相比，價格漲幅將會更大。我確信定價仍然非常合理，並且具有吸引力。

But your cadence this year is likely to be a little bit different. So don't expect to see that same degree of pop in Q1 that we've seen in the last several years, you'll start seeing it building in two and three, et cetera. So I hope that gives you a sense of it.

但今年你的節奏可能會有些不同。因此，不要期望在第一季看到與過去幾年相同程度的流行，你會看到它在第二季和第三季等時間點開始形成。我希望這能讓你們對此有所了解。

One last thing I'd say is if we think about the estimated carryover effect from last year's pricing, it's about 80 bps coming into the year, Trey. So I tried to give you a sense of end markets. I tried to give you a sense of volume, try to give you a sense of pricing and how I think that's going to play relative to margins. So I hope that helped.

我想說的最後一件事是，如果我們考慮去年定價的預期延續效應，那麼今年的延續效應約為 80 個基點，Trey。所以我試著讓你了解終端市場。我試著讓你了解產量，試著讓你了解定價，以及我認為這將如何影響利潤。我希望這能有所幫助。

Yes. That's extremely helpful. But just for some clarity, and correct me if I'm wrong, that pricing in April movement there for aggregates. If I remember, going back historically, with the exception of the last few years, that's not unusual for the industry.

是的。這非常有幫助。但只是為了澄清一下，如果我錯了，請糾正我，四月的定價是總量變動。如果我沒記錯的話，回顧歷史，除了過去幾年，這對該行業來說並不罕見。

It seems like that was a normal timing that maybe had shifted a little bit more to January just in more recent years. Is that the right way to think about it?

這似乎是一個正常的時間安排，只是最近幾年才稍微推遲到 1 月。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That is the right way to think of it, Trey. I mean, you've been in this industry for a long time, and I have two. And that's the way that has typically worked. So yes, I don't see anything that's causing me any angst. But again, if you're looking at it and modeling, as I know you are, I just wanted to make sure that I was giving you and your colleagues the ability to model that with degrees of precision.

這是正確的思考方式，特雷。我的意思是，你在這個行業已經工作很久了，而我有兩個。這就是通常的工作方式。所以是的，我沒有看到任何令我感到焦慮的事情。但是，再說一次，如果你正在觀察它並進行建模，正如我所知，我只是想確保我讓你和你的同事有能力以精確的程度對其進行建模。

Kathryn Thompson, Thompson Research Group.

凱瑟琳·湯普森，湯普森研究小組。

I appreciated your -- the color on the tariff impact in your prepared commentary, but I wanted to follow up on that in a two-part way. One just pull the string on what could be impacted from tarrifs from your perspective where you certainly had metals tariffs announced yesterday.

我很欣賞您在準備好的評論中對關稅影響的闡述，但我想分兩部分來跟進這一點。我們只需從您的角度來看待關稅可能產生的影響，昨天您肯定已經宣布了金屬關稅。

But also, two, what did Martin Marietta do to diversify its supply chain in the wake of the first Trump administration? And how are you a little bit better prepared today versus, say, 2016?

第二，在川普第一屆政府上台後，馬丁瑪麗埃塔公司採取了哪些措施來實現供應鏈多元化？與 2016 年相比，您今天的準備是否更加充分？

Thanks for the question. I'll take the last part first and say this. If we go back to the COVID years when really supply chains were a mess, we actually came through that pretty well. I mean, we were having record years during that period of time. And we were not running into supply chain issues, largely because, as Jim noted in his prepared remarks, most of our supply chain is domestic.

謝謝你的提問。我先談最後一部分並這麼說。如果我們回顧疫情期間供應鏈確實一片混亂的情況，我們實際上很好地度過了難關。我的意思是，那段時間我們創下了紀錄。而且我們沒有遇到供應鏈問題，主要是因為，正如吉姆在其準備好的演講中指出的那樣，我們的大部分供應鏈都在國內。

There were some outliers where we had things coming in from overseas. And to your point, we have moved very carefully in the intervening period of time to make sure that we can look primarily to domestic production. And I think that served us well before. I think if we see something that's ramped up from a tariff perspective, we'll be even better served right now.

有一些異常情況，例如我們的物品是從海外運來的。正如您所說，我們在這段時間內採取了非常謹慎的行動，以確保我們能夠主要專注於國內生產。我認為這對我們以前很有幫助。我認為，如果我們看到關稅角度有所提高，我們現在將得到更好的服務。

To the second part of your question, what are some of the specifics? Look, obviously, steel is something that we're going to watch. Steel tariffs, very frankly, could be pretty helpful to our Magnesium Specialties business. And we're supplying a lot of that material to domestic steel producers. So if they see steel production ramp up in the United States, that's going to help us a lot on volume.

對於你問題的第二部分，請介紹一下具體情況。顯然，鋼鐵是我們要關注的焦點。坦白說，鋼鐵關稅可能對我們的鎂特產品業務非常有幫助。我們向國內鋼鐵生產商供應大量此類材料。因此，如果他們看到美國鋼鐵產量上升，這將對我們的產量有很大幫助。

And if we think about the Magnesium Specialties business, look, they just had a record year. And they had a record year with chemical and steel markets in pretty low spots. So again, I think tariffs very selfishly for us on that could be helpful.

如果我們看看鎂特產品業務，就會發現他們剛剛度過了創紀錄的一年。在化學和鋼鐵市場低迷的背景下，他們創造了創紀錄的一年。因此，我再次認為，徵收關稅對我們來說非常自私，可能會有所幫助。

That equally, if we think about tariffs potentially on cement, Look, we're a domestic cement producer. We're a long way away from water. But again, I think that would be helpful to our North Texas position. By the way, that business continues to perform extraordinarily well. So I think it would just give that business even more upside.

同樣，如果我們考慮對水泥徵收關稅，你看，我們是一家國內水泥生產商。我們距離水還很遠。但我再次認為這對我們北德克薩斯州的地位有幫助。順便說一句，這項業務的表現依然十分出色。所以我認為這只會為該業務帶來更多好處。

Imports or tariffs relative to stone has a twofold effect. Number one, I think it actually adds value to what we're doing with our long-haul network, particularly relative to rail.

與石材相關的進口或關稅有雙重影響。首先，我認為它實際上為我們的長途運輸網絡增加了價值，特別是相對於鐵路。

So keep in mind, we're shipping more rail, more stone by rail than anybody else in the United States. That's about 30 million tons a year. It's going into coastal areas, principally in the United States. We think that could be helpful. To be perfectly transparent about it, we do have an operation in Canada that's coming into the United States by boat.

所以請記住，我們透過鐵路運輸的石材比美國其他國家都多。每年約有 3000 萬噸。它將進入沿海地區，主要是美國的沿海地區。我們認為這可能會有幫助。坦白說，我們確實在加拿大有一個透過船進入美國的業務。

So that would be one of the headwinds that we could potentially see from that. But again, it's not going to be a material issue to the company. But again, in the just in full disclosure, I think that's fair to say.

所以這可能是我們可能看到的阻力之一。但同樣，這對公司來說不會是一個重大問題。但是，再次，在全面披露的情況下，我認為這是公平的說法。

If we think about more indirect impacts from tariffs, I mean, we could certainly see it drive more reshoring and more domestic manufacturing demand. And I think that goes back to your question relative to supply chain.

如果我們考慮關稅的更多間接影響，我的意思是，我們肯定會看到它推動更多的回流和更多的國內製造業需求。我認為這又回到了您有關供應鏈的問題。

And it could impact inflation in some degrees, and that could lead to maybe higher for longer, and that could have a negative impact on real estate or residential as we look at it. And I think it goes back to the observation that I shared with Trey. I think we have given a very measured guidance approach today.

這可能會在一定程度上影響通貨膨脹，並可能導致通膨在更長時間內保持高位，這可能會對房地產或住宅產生負面影響。我認為這可以追溯到我與 Trey 分享的觀察。我認為我們今天給了非常謹慎的指導方針。

As if we come back and adjust this, I sure would like to adjust it up. And I hope we put ourselves in the position that that's exactly what we can do, Kathryn.

就好像我們回來調整這個一樣，我當然想調整它。我希望我們能夠把自己放在我們可以做到的立場上，凱瑟琳。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Ward, Jim, I'm wondering if you could just talk about the per ton cost cadence that you expect obviously makes is moving around on board, you spoke about timing of price increases normally price cost credit is pretty consistent. Do you expect similar gross profit per ton growth in the first quarter as the full year. Can you just give us a bit of color --

沃德，吉姆，我想知道您是否可以談談您預計的每噸成本節奏，這顯然會使船上的價格上漲，您談到了價格上漲的時機，通常價格成本信貸是相當一致的。您預計第一季每噸毛利的增幅與全年類似嗎？你能給我們講講嗎--

Yes, I'll ask Jim to come back and give you some color relative cadence. I want to come back to the very first notion that you raised, and that is -- let's talk about what's happening with respect to cost per tonne because I think this quarter was a really good example of what you can and you should expect going forward.

是的，我會讓吉姆回來給你一些色彩相對節奏。我想回到您提出的第一個想法，那就是——讓我們來談談每噸成本的變化情況，因為我認為本季度很好地說明了您可以並且應該期待的未來情況。

And if you look at it, I thought we had good cost management. If we're looking, frankly, at organic COGS, they were flat despite revenue being up nicely in the organization. But what I like, Jerry, is when I go back and look at it, I mean clearly, energy was down and energy was down because diesel was better and a host of things.

如果你看一下，我認為我們的成本管理很好。坦白說，如果我們看一下有機銷貨成本，儘管組織的收入大幅增加，但銷貨成本卻持平。但是傑瑞，我喜歡的是，當我回頭看看它時，顯然，能源下降了，能源下降是因為柴油更好，還有許多其他原因。

But what I moved by is I go through the different cost buckets, whether it was supplies or whether it was repairs or whether it was contract services or otherwise, they're all in the green for the quarter. So I like the way that that's shaping up and the fact is we can continue to make these businesses that we bought increasingly efficient relative to ASP, but also relative to the cost profile.

但我要做的是，我查看了不同的成本項目，無論是供應品、維修、合約服務還是其他，本季它們都是盈利的。所以我喜歡這種發展方式，事實上我們可以繼續讓我們收購的這些業務相對於 ASP 和成本狀況都變得越來越有效率。

Now the other part of your question was relative to cadence. And so for that, let me turn it over to Jim.

現在你的問題的另一部分與節奏有關。因此，讓我把這個任務交給吉姆。

Yes. Thanks, Ward. Jerry, the cadence is going to be -- there's two dynamics. One is the P&L effects, the temporary P&L effects of our inventory reduction, that will continue through the first half, it's already built into guide, but that will show up more in first half, not in the second half is really as much.

是的。謝謝，沃德。傑瑞，節奏將是－－有兩種動態。一個是損益效應，即我們庫存減少的暫時損益效應，這種效應將持續整個上半年，它已經納入指南中，但這將在上半年更加明顯，而不是在下半年。

Aside from that dynamic, the underlying COGS inflation are going to be pretty consistent throughout the quarter. So that will be pretty evenly balanced. Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 -- we're not anticipating anything changing dramatically on the underlying inflation piece. But again, the inventory work down, the temporary P&L effects from that, we'll see in the first half and then that should abate thereafter. Does that answer the question?

除此之外，整個季度的基礎 COGS 通膨將保持相當穩定。這樣就會達到相當均衡的狀態。Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4－我們預期基礎通膨部分不會有任何重大變化。但是，庫存下降以及由此產生的暫時損益影響，我們將在上半年看到，然後這種影響應該會減弱。這回答了問題嗎？

It does. So just to make sure we're on the same page with you, Jim. So it sounds like you're thinking of gross profit per ton up low single digits, maybe in the first half? And then in the back half, maybe mid-teens given the comps on the inventory destock point. Is that the range of expectations?

是的。所以只是為了確保我們和你意見一致，吉姆。所以聽起來你認為每噸毛利會上升一個個位數，也許是在上半年？然後在後半年，考慮到庫存去庫存點的比較，可能處於十五六歲左右。這是預期範圍嗎？

Probably lower variation than what you just described. I would say, low teens consistently, maybe a little bit lower, minus a couple hundred basis points. But low-teens growth, I'd say pretty consistently quarter over quarter.

可能比您剛才描述的變化要低。我想說，持續處於低點十幾個百分點，或許再低一點，減去幾百個基點。但我認為，低十幾率的成長率與上一季相比相當穩定。

And Jerry, let me add one more footnote to that because Jim mentioned the inventory reduction or management efforts that we've been going through. I mean for the quarter, that was about a $20 million P&L impact.

傑瑞，讓我再增加一個腳註，因為吉姆提到了我們一直在進行的庫存減少或管理工作。我的意思是，對於本季來說，這對損益產生了約 2000 萬美元的影響。

And my point with that is if you think about overall cost control and if you think about pricing and you think about the margin expansion that we had in the quarter, given that $20 million headwind on inventory, that's my point. That was a pretty interesting quarter relative to cost control.

我的觀點是，如果您考慮總體成本控制，如果您考慮定價，如果您考慮我們本季的利潤率擴張，考慮到庫存面臨 2000 萬美元的逆風，這就是我的觀點。從成本控制角度來說，這是一個相當有趣的季度。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

You referenced the recent acquisitions, and I'm wondering if it's possible to put a finer point on the volume benefit that you expect in '25 either in terms of tons or percentage volume benefit? Or however you be able to frame it.

您提到了最近的收購，我想知道您是否可以更詳細地說明您預計在 25 年實現的產量效益，無論是以噸數還是百分比計算？或者無論你如何能夠建造它。

Happy to, Anthony. As a practical matter, if you're looking just at what would have been organic, it's probably up [percent] and then if you're looking at the balance of it, it's largely acquisition driven. So I think on a percentage basis, that's probably not a bad way to think about it.

很高興，安東尼。從實際情況來看，如果你只看有機成長，它可能會上升[百分比]；如果你看它的餘額，它主要是由收購驅動的。因此我認為從百分比的角度來看，這可能不是一個糟糕的思考方式。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Phil Ng。

I guess, since Trump has stepped into office, certainly a lot of noise on the funding front on the public side, but it seems to be more centered around EV charging stations and some of these IRA projects. So my question to you, Ward, have you seen any pause in projects and any slowdown in bidding activity for new projects? Just help us think through any choppiness and noise on the public side when we look at '25.

我想，自從川普上任以來，公共資金方面肯定有很多喧囂的事情，但似乎更集中在電動車充電站和一些 IRA 項目上。所以我想問你，沃德，你是否發現專案暫停了，新專案的競標活動有沒有放緩？當我們展望25年時，只需幫助我們思考公眾方面的任何不穩定和噪音。

I appreciate the question. We've not seen any slowdown in that. And in fact, we think that's probably going to continue to be pretty constructive, and I want to say for several reasons. One, if we just look at what we think is going to happen relative to nonres square footage starts.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。我們並未看到任何放緩跡象。事實上，我們認為這可能會繼續具有建設性，我想說有幾個原因。首先，如果我們只看我們認為與非住宅平方英尺開工相關的情況。

I mean, we're predicting 2025 recovery of somewhere between 8% and 9%. But to contextualize that, that's still down 19% from 2022's peak and still below a 2021 level.

我的意思是，我們預測 2025 年的復甦率將在 8% 到 9% 之間。但具體來說，這仍比 2022 年的峰值下降了 19%，並且仍低於 2021 年的水平。

And if we're looking at what we're seeing right now relative to Stargate that I mentioned in my opening comments, the investments that Amazon is making, we're simply not seeing a slowdown in those sectors right now.

如果我們看看目前我在開場白中提到的《星際之門》的情況，以及亞馬遜所做的投資，我們並沒有看到這些領域出現放緩。

If we look in our footprint more specifically, I think Google has activity right now, both in Kansas City, which is an important market for us as well as in South Carolina. Microsoft, we talked about how much investment they have ahead of them. But they've already got projects underway in North Carolina. And obviously, I've already mentioned the Amazon projects in both Claver in Texas and in Fort Myers.

如果我們更具體地說明我們的足跡，我認為谷歌現在在堪薩斯城（對我們來說是一個重要的市場）和南卡羅來納州都很活躍。微軟，我們談論了他們未來有多少投資。但他們已經在北卡羅來納州開展計畫。顯然，我已經提到了亞馬遜在德克薩斯州克拉弗和邁爾斯堡的項目。

But part of what I'm moved by as we think about the non-res sector is we think industrial construction is going to be pretty healthy. We think health care and education is going to be pretty healthy.

但當我們考慮非住宅領域時，讓我感動的是，我們認為工業建設將會非常健康。我們認為醫療保健和教育將會非常健康。

And we think the broad commercial real estate sector is going to be the one that's going to come behind that single-family sector that we said is underbuilt by around 7 million homes today, at least according to realtor.com. So we're not seeing a slowdown in that. We're actually seeing a nice steady pickup in that.

我們認為，廣泛的商業房地產行業將落後於獨戶住宅行業，至少根據 realtor.com 的數據，目前獨戶住宅建設缺口約為 700 萬套。因此，我們並未看到這方面放緩的跡象。我們實際上看到了這一領域的穩定回升。

And again, so much of what's going to happen in our business is going to be driven by the locations that we have and the states in which we built leading positions we believe, are going to be in the front end of much of this development.

再說一遍，我們業務中發生的許多事情將取決於我們所擁有的地點以及我們建立領先地位的州，我們相信，這些將處於大部分發展的前沿。

The word, a lot of that commentary was more around private. But I guess on the public side, you haven't seen any choppiness in terms of funding being paused or any of that stuff. And then the RA piece, you just don't have as great of appreciation. How much of a good guy has it been and what it could --

很多評論都比較私人。但我想在公共方面，你還沒有看到任何有關資金暫停或任何類似情況的不穩定情況。然後對於 RA 作品，你就沒那麼欣賞了。他是個多好的傢伙，以及他能做什麼--

Yes. We're not seeing anything choppy on the public side. We think public is actually going to be really constructive and expected to stay that way for a period of time. I mean the fact is, if we're looking in Texas this year, TxDOT lettings are going to be really robust. They were $13.5 billion last year, and they're expected to be in that same range again this year.

是的。我們沒有看到公眾方面有任何異常。我們認為公眾實際上會非常有建設性，而且預計這種狀態會持續一段時間。我的意思是，事實是，如果我們今年在德克薩斯州尋找的話，TxDOT 的出租率將非常強勁。去年這一數字為 135 億美元，預計今年仍將達到這一水平。

Again, as you recall, Colorado actually has budget of nearly $2.1 billion. North Carolina's budget is going to increase to -- I think it's about $7.6 billion. And part of that is driven by the fact that now we're seeing about 6% of sales taxes going into NCDOT today. We think that's going to be attractive.

再說一次，正如你所記得的，科羅拉多州的實際預算接近 21 億美元。北卡羅來納州的預算將增加到——我認為約為 76 億美元。部分原因是我們現在看到約有 6% 的銷售稅流入 NCDOT。我們認為這會很有吸引力。

Equally, if we go to Georgia, I mean, their budget is up 7%. [VARTA] is at record levels. If you take out onetime supplements that they've had. So if we're looking at our state in our top 10 states on a same-on-same basis, 8 of the 10 year over year are up.

同樣，如果我們去喬治亞州，他們的預算增加了 7%。 [VARTA] 達到了創紀錄的水平。如果您取出他們曾經服用過的一次性補充劑。因此，如果我們以相同基礎查看排名前 10 位的州，那麼與去年同期相比，有 8 個州的銷售額都有所上升。

So that's why when we're looking at the heavy side nonres and on big infrastructure, we don't anticipate choppiness there. We expect pretty healthy, good, steady diets of work.

因此，當我們關注重型非房地產和大型基礎設施時，我們預計那裡不會出現波動。我們期望工作生活相當健康、良好、穩定。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital。

Just a follow-up question and a new one for me. Just a follow-up just on the inventory drawdown. I was wondering if you could perhaps quantify how much you still have remaining in the first half of the year.

對我來說這只是一個後續問題和一個新問題。這只是對庫存減少的後續關注。我想知道您是否可以量化一下今年上半年還剩餘多少錢。

And then just broadly, on the volume outlook, I reckon that you're looking for low single-digit growth. Has any of the components changed either for the better or for the worst, since you provided the preliminary outlook back after the third quarter?

從總體上看，就銷量前景而言，我認為你正在尋求低個位數的成長。自從您在第三季之後提供初步展望以來，其中哪些組成部分發生了好轉或惡化的變化？

So a couple of things. So I would say relative to the inventory drawdown. If you think about it, it's about a $30 million headwind in Q3, a $20 million headwind in Q4. We do think we're going to be done with that by the time we get to half year.

有幾件事。所以我想說的是相對於庫存減少。如果你仔細想想，第三季的逆風約為 3000 萬美元，第四季的逆風約為 2000 萬美元。我們確實認為到半年的時候我們就能完成這項工作。

And you know what, Garik, if you think about bookends, that's probably not a bad way to think about book ending it. And the other part of your question, repeat that again for me, Garik.

你知道嗎，加里克，如果你想想書擋，這也許不是一種糟糕的思考書擋的方式。加里克，請您再給我重複您問題的另一部分。

Yes. I was wondering if the volume outlook has changed at all since last quarter. Recognizing you're still speaking to low single-digit growth, but has any component, not any better or worse. So maybe infrastructure so maybe come out for the year -- better. Yes, any other color there.

是的。我想知道自上個季度以來銷量前景是否有所改變。認識到你仍然在談論低個位數成長，但有任何組成部分，沒有任何好轉或惡化。因此也許基礎設施可能會在今年變得更好。是的，還有其他顏色嗎？

So what I would say is I think people generally have felt like interest is higher for longer. So I think overall, there's a sense that degrees of public are probably going to be a little bit more muted now than we would have thought several months ago -- I mean, I'm sorry, private.

所以我想說的是，我認為人們普遍感覺到利息會持續很久且較高。因此我認為總體而言，現在公眾的關注程度可能比我們幾個月前想像的要低一些——對不起，我的意思是私人關注程度。

But at the same time, I think we feel like public is going to be pretty healthy. And I think we feel like it has to be for several reasons, Garik. Number one, you have to assume this administration is going to be looking at a reauthorization at the end of '26 and having 70% of those dollars still hanging around the hoop doesn't sound like a really good idea.

但同時，我認為大眾將會非常健康。加里克，我認為我們覺得這必定是出於幾個原因。首先，你必須假設本屆政府將在 26 年底考慮重新授權，而讓 70% 的資金仍懸而未決聽起來並不是一個好主意。

So our sense is that's probably going to be a pretty aggressive play that we're going to see on public in '25 and '26. So I think that probably feels honestly, a little bit more robust. And I think portions of private probably feels modestly slower for something that feels something like a wash.

因此，我們的感覺是，這可能是一種相當激進的舉措，我們將在 25 年和 26 年看到公眾對此持謹慎態度。因此我認為，說實話，這可能感覺更加強勁一些。我認為私人部分的體驗可能會稍微慢一些，就像洗禮一樣。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

I'm sorry to be a dead horse here, but I just wanted to clarify on the organic growth side. You talked about maybe 1% and the rest was -- on the volume side, it was maybe driven by the M&A front. But when you walk through your end markets, you highlighted high single digit for Infra and then low single-digit growth in resi, non-resi.

很抱歉，我再次重複上述話題，但我只是想澄清一下有機成長方面的問題。您談到的可能是 1%，其餘的——從數量方面來看，可能是由併購推動的。但是，當您審視終端市場時，您會發現基礎設施領域的成長呈現高個位數，而住宅和非住宅領域的成長則呈現低個位數。

So it seems to imply that the end markets themselves are maybe growing closer to above that 1% if you put that all together. So just curious, is that just conservatism? Or is there anything that we should consider there as to why maybe that organic growth is only 1%?

因此，如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，這似乎意味著終端市場本身的成長率可能接近 1% 以上。所以很好奇，這只是保守主義嗎？或者我們應該考慮為什麼有機成長率可能只有 1%？

Yes, that was not organic. That was meant to be a year-over-year view, inclusive of the acquisitions.

是的，那不是有機的。這應該是同比來看，包括收購在內。

Sorry, the 1% on volume?

抱歉，音量是 1% 嗎？

No, no. The slides that show mid-single digit for infra, et cetera, low single digits for the other categories. Those were inclusive of acquisitions.

不，不。投影片顯示，基礎設施等的數值為中等個位數，其他類別的數值為低個位數。其中包括收購。

And I think to your point, look, as I said in my comments, we're trying to be really measured in this guide right now. So if we come back to you, we'd like to be guiding up not sideways or down.

我認為，正如我在評論中所說，我們現在正試圖對這份指南進行真正的衡量。因此，如果我們回到您身邊，我們希望引導您向上，而不是橫向或向下。

Got it. Understood. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to go back to your comments around the industry pricing and in some pockets, perhaps you're turning to April 1 and maybe a little bit more of a smooth cadence through the first half.

知道了。明白了。這很有幫助。然後，我只想回到你關於行業定價的評論，在某些領域，也許你會轉向 4 月 1 日，也許上半年的節奏會更加平穩一些。

Should we take that to mean that midyears were moving as an industry away from midyears? Or do you still expect to see midyears in aggregates?

我們是否應該認為這意味著中期產業正在遠離中期？還是您仍預期年中會出現總量數據？

I would say a couple of things. One, the guide that we've given you does not assume midyears. but we believe that there will be degrees of midyears just as they were last year. And keep in mind, where we saw them mostly last year, were in the new acquisitions, we think we will likely see that again this year.

我想說幾件事。首先，我們給您的指南並不假設年中的情況。但我們相信，今年中期的情況將與去年一樣。請記住，去年我們主要在新收購中看到它們，我們認為今年我們可能會再次看到這種情況。

And part of what we'll just have to watch for next year is to see, again, how does cement roll out next year because what that did as this year came into play is it really made that January 1 more challenging, specifically relative to ready-mixed concrete.

我們明年需要關注的部分內容是，再次看看水泥明年的銷量如何，因為今年的情況確實讓 1 月 1 日的銷售變得更具挑戰性，特別是相對於預拌混凝土而言。

So again, the January 1 price increases are broadly in for products going into hot mix. So it's really more of a basically a ready-mix issue and a cement issue than anything else. But it does not include midyears in the guide we do think there will be some mid-years. We'll be back to you to talk more about that.

因此，1 月 1 日大體上熱混合產品的價格都會上漲。因此，這實際上更多的是一個預拌混凝土問題和水泥問題，而不是其他問題。但指南中沒有包括中年時期，我們確實認為會有一些中年時期。我們將稍後與您進一步討論此事。

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

As it relates to capital allocation priorities, can you guys talk a little bit about the M&A pipeline? Does a change in the regulatory environment impact anything there? And if that were not to materialize, what's the appetite on debt paydown versus the buyback, just given the balance sheet health?

由於它與資本配置優先事項有關，你們可以談談併購管道嗎？監管環境的變化會產生什麼影響嗎？如果這不能實現，考慮到資產負債表的健康狀況，償還債務和回購債務的興趣如何？

So number one, if you think about it, Tyler, $6 billion worth of transactions last year, we ended the year at 2.3 times debt-to-EBITDA ratio. So we're in a very attractive place to continue growing our business, number one.

所以第一，泰勒，如果你想想一下，去年的交易價值為 60 億美元，而年底我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.3 倍。因此，我們目前所處的環境非常有利於繼續發展我們的業務，這是第一。

Number two, still a lot of work to be done in this industry relative to M&A. And I'm going to see it for the rest of my career, my success will see it for the rest of their career. And my bet is my successor, successor will see that for a good part of their career as well.

第二，這個產業在併購方面還有很多工作要做。我將在我的餘下的職業生涯中見證這一點，我的成功也將在他們的餘下的職業生涯中見證這一點。我敢打賭，我的繼任者在他們的職業生涯中也會看到這一點。

As we've indicated before, we firmly identified over 200 million tons of businesses on a per annum basis that are in geographies in which we would have an interest in being. And then to your point, that we believe we can get cleared regulatorily.

正如我們之前所指出的，我們每年確定了超過 2 億噸的業務，這些業務位於我們有興趣的地區。然後回到您的觀點，我們相信我們可以獲得監管批准。

Look, do I think this is going to be a $6 billion year? No, probably not. If a few things break, could it be? I suppose it always could because it tends to be opportunistic.

你看，我是否認為今年的營收會達到 60 億美元？不，可能不是。如果幾件東西壞了，會怎麼樣？我認為它總是有可能的，因為它傾向於機會主義。

But my sense is, Tyler, we're looking just in a year in, year out circumstance that we're doing around $1 billion a year of transactions. And we think that's a good steady number. and there are going to be instances where you may well see it above that because you might have something opportunistically that comes along.

但我的感覺是，泰勒，我們只是在年復一年地觀察情況，每年的交易額約為 10 億美元。我們認為這是一個穩定的數字。並且有些情況下您很可能會看到它高於這個數字，因為您可能會遇到一些機會性的事情。

But if we think back to it as well relative to different administrations, et cetera. One thing that Martin Marietta has always been very consistent in doing is being in a position that we look at the markets very thoughtfully.

但如果我們回頭思考一下，也可以看到不同政府之間的差異等等。馬丁瑪麗埃塔 (Martin Marietta) 始終堅持要做的一件事就是非常認真地看待市場。

And we understand businesses that we believe we can buy regulatorily, points that we can't and we tend to move very purposefully on the ones that we can. Now relative to other uses of cash, let me turn it over to Jim, so he can talk to you a little bit about that.

我們了解哪些業務是我們認為可以透過監管管道購買的，哪些是我們無法購買的，我們傾向於非常有針對性地選擇那些我們可以購買的業務。現在關於現金的其他用途，讓我把它交給吉姆，這樣他可以和你稍微談一下。

Yes, good question, Tyler. We do have a bond coming due in December this year. It's quite small, whether that's repaid cash on the balance sheet or refinance, what we'll see going forward, but it is relatively small. And I would anticipate share buybacks to outstrip any debt reduction, if there's any reduction at all.

是的，泰勒，你問得好。我們確實有一筆債券將於今年 12 月到期。這個金額相當小，無論是資產負債表上償還的現金或再融資，我們都會看到未來金額相對較小。我預計股票回購的金額將超過債務減免的金額（如果有的話）。

So we've been in the market last year, bought a fair bit of shares. We'll be in the market again this year as we are every year on buying back stock. But that would come before debt pay down.

因此，我們去年進入了該市場，購買了相當多的股票。正如我們每年回購股票一樣，今年我們將再次進入市場。但這要在償還債務之前進行。

Yes. Okay. And then super quick, it sounds like there's some -- a few dynamics in first half versus second half FIFO pricing cadence, M&A, et cetera. Can you just shape first half and second half EBITDA mix? Will it slightly skew second half? Just any very helpful remodel.

是的。好的。然後很快，聽起來好像上半年與下半年 FIFO 定價節奏、併購等方面有一些動態。你能塑造上半年和下半年的 EBITDA 組合嗎？這會對下半年造成輕微的扭曲嗎？任何非常有幫助的改造。

Yes. I think it will skew second half as it traditionally does perhaps less so this year than last year, though.

是的。我認為它將對下半年產生影響，因為傳統上今年的影響可能比去年小。

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research.

邁克爾·杜達斯（Michael Dudas），垂直研究。

Yes, great. A little chilly here in Northeast, but we're suffering through it.

是的，太棒了。東北這邊有點冷，但是我們正在忍受。

Looking at the residential market, just a little bit more thought on it's been frustrating, I think, for most of the industry that we've seen the affordability and the rate issues. Is there sensitivity on like if the economy picks up or rates fall just a little bit that there's this pent-up demand will flow through?

看看住宅市場，只要再多想想就會發現，對於大多數行業來說，我們都看到了負擔能力和費率問題，這令人沮喪。如果經濟回升或利率略有下降，被壓抑的需求是否會流出？

Or are you anticipating that? And is there any shift in the multi versus single that you might say heading in -- I know you got the longer-term numbers, but certainly, as things normalize, what a benefit that could be in the regions that you're in?

或者說您預料到了這一點？您可能會說，多戶家庭和單戶家庭之間是否會發生變化——我知道您掌握的是長期數據，但可以肯定的是，隨著情況正常化，這對您所在的地區會有什麼好處？

Yes. Michael, it's a great question. I would say several things. As we talk to customers and we talk to builders right now, they're focused on buying and entitling land. So number one, I think that's a really good sign.

是的。邁克爾，這個問題問得很好。我想說幾件事。當我們與客戶和建築商交談時，他們專注於購買土地和獲得土地權。所以首先，我認為這是一個非常好的跡象。

Number two, that tends to be a really good sign relative to single-family residential. And selfishly, we like to skew toward that because that's 2 to 3 times more aggregate intensive than it's multifamily.

第二，對於單戶住宅而言，這往往是一個非常好的跡象。自私地說，我們喜歡偏向這一點，因為這比多戶型住宅的整體密集程度高出 2 到 3 倍。

The other thing that strikes me is, while it's been a long slog, builder confidence in places like Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia is clearly getting better. So we think that's a very good sign. I think they believe starts and permits are expected to pick up broadly across the marketplace today.

另一件令我印象深刻的事情是，雖然這是一個漫長的過程，但德克薩斯州、科羅拉多州、北卡羅來納州和喬治亞州等地的建築商信心顯然正在增強。因此我們認為這是一個非常好的跡象。我認為他們相信今天整個市場的開工和許可證預計將廣泛回升。

And the other thing that I think is worth noting, and I said it in the earlier response as well, I do think to degrees, buyers are adjusting to higher rates. And so I think to your point, I think could actually see a pretty significant surge in demand.

我認為另一件值得注意的事情，我在先前的回覆中也說過，我確實認為買家在某種程度上正在適應更高的利率。所以我認為，正如您所說，我認為實際上可能會看到需求出現相當顯著的增長。

It's all going to be a matter of timing because it's not going to turn on with immediacy. But when we go back to the notion of 7 million homes that are underbuilt and a disproportionate number of them in states in which or MSAs in which we have a leading position, that's a pretty attractive place to be. So I hope that helps.

這一切都將是一個時間問題，因為它不會立即啟動。但當我們回顧一下 700 萬套未建成房屋的情況，以及這些房屋中有很大一部分位於我們處於領先地位的州或大都市統計區時，這是一個相當有吸引力的情況。我希望這會有所幫助。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

麥格雷戈（David MacGregor），長弓研究公司（Longbow Research）。

I apologize, I'm in an airport here. So Ward, I guess, on infrastructure, I hear you when you say that you're not seeing any interruption in orders right now, but I guess some of the elephant in the room is how sales -- federal funding for infrastructure construction projects. And I just wanted you to share with us how you would characterize the risk of federal government deobligating funds for state DOT projects.

抱歉，我現在在機場。所以沃德，我想，關於基礎設施，我聽到你說現在訂單沒有中斷，但我想房間裡的一個大問題是銷售——聯邦政府如何為基礎設施建設項目提供資金。我只是想讓您與我們分享您如何看待聯邦政府取消對州交通部專案資金承諾的風險。

David, it's a perfectly good question, and I don't see that as a big threat. And here's one of the reasons why. I mean, if you think about overall IIJA, $1.2 trillion, right? About $350 billion to highways, bridges, roads and streets, the things that you and I look at is hard core construction. And if we think back to when IIJA was going through its debate process in the Senate and in the House.

大衛，這是一個非常好的問題，我並不認為這是一個很大的威脅。這就是其中一個原因。我的意思是，如果您考慮整體 IIJA，那是 1.2 兆美元，對嗎？大約有 3500 億美元用於建造高速公路、橋樑、道路和街道，這些都是你我看到的硬核建設。如果我們回想一下 IIJA 在參議院和眾議院進行辯論的時候。

Then former President Trump was not in favor of IIJA because he did not think enough of it was going toward what he would refer to as real infrastructure. So if we look at what's going on with that and we think about what I believe his marching orders have been to Secretary [Duffy], and that is to build big and both big in this context, I think, means highways, bridges, roads, streets, airports and big heavy infrastructure in the United States.

當時，前總統川普並不贊成 IIJA，因為他認為 IIJA 對建設他所說的真正的基礎設施沒有起到足夠的作用。因此，如果我們看看正在發生的事情，並思考我認為他對部長 [Duff] 發出的命令，那就是在美國建設大型基礎設施，我認為，大型基礎設施是指高速公路、橋樑、道路、街道、機場和大型重型基礎設施。

So I think if they do anything with that, I'm not sure that they will, I think it will be nuanced. And I think if it's nuanced, it's not going to be in those areas that you and I think about as being nicely aggregates intensive and oftentimes countercyclical.

因此我認為，如果他們對此採取任何行動，我不確定他們會這樣做，我認為這會很微妙。我認為，如果它很微妙，它就不會出現在你我認為的那些聚合密集且常常反週期的領域。

So I think if we think of IIJA through that lens, I think that's probably the right place to be. If we think about our -- range, so many of those funds have already been obligated, obviously, a much smaller program anyway.

因此我認為如果我們從這個角度考慮 IIJA，那可能是正確的選擇。如果我們考慮我們的範圍，那麼許多資金顯然已經被用於規模小得多的專案。

So as I'm sitting here measuring risk and thinking about the way the administration may be thinking about a reauthorization. I just view bad things happening there as having a relatively low likelihood. So David, I hope that helps.

因此，我坐在這裡衡量風險並思考政府可能如何考慮重新授權。我只是認為在那裡發生壞事的可能性相對較低。所以大衛，我希望這會有所幫助。

Adam Thalhimer, Thompson Davis.

亞當塔希默、湯普森戴維斯。

Congrats on the Q4 beat.

恭喜第四季取得成功。

Thank you, Adam. Good to hear your voice.

謝謝你，亞當。很高興聽到你的聲音。

I have two things. I have some confused clients on pricing. And I think you said aggregates pricing up a little bit sequentially in Q1 with a bigger pop in Q2.

我有兩件事。我的一些客戶對於定價感到困惑。我認為您說過，總價格在第一季環比上漲了一點，在第二季度上漲幅度更大。

Yes.

是的。

And then my other question was vis-a-vis what somebody else said about the weather, it's been a pretty tough winter. Just curious if we should bake in a conservative Q1?

然後我的另一個問題是針對其他人對天氣的評價，這是一個相當艱難的冬天。只是好奇我們是否應該制定保守的 Q1？

I wouldn't go over your skis on baking in a conservative Q1. I think Q1 is going to be just fine. So I wouldn't lean too hard there. And look, I think you nailed it on the pricing at all worried about pricing as Trey indicated in his question, too. I mean, an -- improvised increase for some portions of the marketplaces where this industry has resided for a long time.

在保守的 Q1 中，我不會對烘焙問題發表意見。我認為第一季將會很好。所以我不會太依賴那裡。而且看，我認為你在定價問題上完全正確，正如 Trey 在他的問題中所指出的那樣，你完全擔心定價問題。我的意思是，對於該行業長期存在的部分市場來說，這是一種即興的成長。

And my only commentary around pricing was I'm trying to measure from a modeling perspective, to your same point, I'm not wanting people to get over their skis on certain components as to go through on a month-by-month basis.

我對定價的唯一評論是，我試圖從建模的角度進行衡量，與你的觀點相同，我不希望人們在某些組件上犯錯，而是逐月進行。

But if I break yours down, no, I don't think you need to build anything Draconian at all into Q1. And I do think if you've got price increases layering in, in a more robust way, post-Q1, your model will hold together in a better fashion.

但如果我分析你的觀點，不，我認為你根本不需要在 Q1 中建立任何嚴厲的措施。我確實認為，如果在第一季之後，價格能夠以更強勁的方式逐步上漲，你的模型將會更好地維持下去。

Avi Jaroslawicz, UBS.

瑞銀的 Avi Jaroslawicz。

Given all the volatility and fluctuations with policymaking these days, just curious how that's affecting your own capital planning and strategic decision-making.

考慮到目前政策制定的種種波動，我很好奇這會如何影響您自己的資本規劃和策略決策。

The nice thing about this industry is, I can tell you, this company has always been profitable. This company has never cut a dividend. And even when we went through the financial crisis and lost, let's call it, 40%, 45% of our volume, we always had pricing power.

我可以告訴你，這個行業的好處是，這家公司一直都是有獲利的。該公司從未削減過股息。即使在我們經歷金融危機並損失了 40% 或 45% 的銷售時，我們仍然始終擁有定價權。

So when we look at history and let some of the history dictate how we look at the future going ahead, look, there are going to be some policy things that will move around. I think the policy issues that I believe will see from this administration relative to public and infrastructure will be constructive to what we're doing.

因此，當我們回顧歷史，並讓歷史決定我們如何看待未來時，我們會看到，一些政策會改變。我認為本屆政府在公共和基礎設施方面推出的政策將對我們正在做的事情產生建設性作用。

I think the policy decisions we may or may not see from this administration relative to tariffs, whether it be cement, steel or otherwise, will probably be constructive to what we're doing. When I think about where I think this administration would like to see interest rates and what that can do to single-family housing I think that ought to be constructive to what we're doing.

我認為，我們可能會或可能不會看到本屆政府有關關稅的政策決定，無論是水泥、鋼鐵或其他產品，都可能對我們正在做的事情產生建設性作用。當我思考本屆政府希望看到的利率水準以及利率水準對獨戶住宅的影響時，我認為這應該對我們正在做的事情有建設性意義。

When I think about a company that has proven itself to be actually very capable at -- I think we're likely to be at a time with availability of potential transactions and administration that's frankly going to be -- will look more favorably upon transactions going forward than we've seen in the more recent past.

當我想到一家已經證明自己非常有能力的公司時——我認為我們很可能正處於一個有潛在交易和管理的時代——坦率地說——它將比我們最近看到的更為看好未來的交易。

So are we watching carefully? Yes. Are we going to remain agile? Yes. But as we look at it, and really start thinking about what are going to be potential plus this year, what are going to be potential minuses here.

那我們有沒有仔細觀察？是的。我們會保持敏捷嗎？是的。但當我們審視它並真正開始思考今年可能有哪些好處和可能有哪些壞處時。

We see a lot of pluses here. And we see that relative to what M&A will look like. We see that relative to what we think monetary policy is going to look like. And frankly, I think we're likely to see it in the way a reauthorization works.

我們在這裡看到很多優點。我們從併購的角度來看這個問題。我們看到這與我們所認為的貨幣政策有關。坦白說，我認為我們很可能會在重新授權的工作方式中看到它。

And the way that I think about that is I think this administration, while they have control of a House of Representatives and the United States Senate, are likely to want to get a reauthorization done before midterms.

我的想法是，我認為本屆政府雖然控制著眾議院和美國參議院，但他們很可能希望在中期選舉前完成重新授權。

Because it passes prologue, usually midterms don't work terribly well for the party that's in the White House. So if the current administration is looking at having the White House and the Senate and the House of Representatives and is consistent with telling Secretary Duffy to build big, again, as we're watching the policy decisions that have been announced and policy decisions that we anticipate, I think, on a whole, we feel like they're going to be pretty positive from Martin Marietta.

由於中期選舉要經過序幕，因此對於入主白宮的政黨來說，中期選舉通常不會有太大的效果。因此，如果現任政府正在考慮控制白宮、參議院和眾議院，並始終如一地告訴達菲部長要大力建設，那麼，當我們關注已經宣布的政策決定和我們預期的政策決定時，我認為，總體而言，我們覺得馬丁·瑪麗埃塔的政策決定將非常積極。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的邁克爾費尼格 (Michael Feniger)。

Just, of course, Jim, you mentioned price versus cost spread has widened in recent years. I'm just curious, Ward, if we are in a higher for longer rate environment and that private side is still somewhat under pressure is it inevitable that as you turn the page to 2026 that pricing comes back down to that long-term 3% to 4% average or just qualitatively, do you think that price versus cost spread remains wider than maybe what we historically seen outside of just the last three years?

當然，吉姆，您提到近年來價格與成本的差距已經擴大。我只是好奇，沃德，如果我們處於一個長期利率較高的環境中，而私人方面仍然面臨一定壓力，那麼當你翻到 2026 年的時候，價格是否不可避免地會回落到長期 3% 到 4% 的平均水平？ 或者只是從質量上講，你是否認為價格與成本的利差仍然比我們在過去三年以外的歷史上所看到的要大？

So I'm going to answer your last question first. Look, I think the price cost spread continues to work in our favor. And I think for a couple of reasons, I think actually two hold on the sentence. One, and Jim can talk to what we're seeing broadly on inflation, I think inflation is moderating inflation is coming down. So that's going to help.

所以我首先要回答你的最後一個問題。看，我認為價格成本差價繼續對我們有利。我認為有幾個原因，實際上有兩個理由支持這句話。首先，吉姆可以談談我們對通貨膨脹的整體看法，我認為通貨膨脹正在緩和，通貨膨脹正在下降。這將會有所幫助。

But I think the bigger driver is pricing is going to remain in a fundamentally better place going forward than pricing was, at least in my view, for all the years up until let's call it the last two or three. And I think that's a fundamental change. I don't see that changing.

但我認為，更大的驅動因素是定價在未來將保持比過去更好的水平，至少在我看來，在過去兩三年裡定價都是如此。我認為這是一個根本性的改變。我不認為這種情況會改變。

Look, if you look at the face of financial statements as I am, you're seeing ASPs around $22 a ton for aggregates, that's had a nice run but Michael, I'm going to say again what you've heard me say in the past, there are very few things that you want in your line that you can buy for $22 a ton except our product.

你看，如果你像我一樣看一下財務報表，你會看到骨料的平均售價約為每噸 22 美元，這是一個不錯的表現，但是邁克爾，我要再說一遍你過去聽我說過的話，除了我們的產品外，你的生產線上很少有東西能以每噸 22 美元的價格買到。

And I continue to believe that we're going to be in a position that we can get appropriate value for our product going forward. I think we'll see that spread continue. I'll ask Jim to give you a little bit of color relative to what we're seeing with respect to inflation.

我始終相信，我們能夠為未來的產品獲得適當的價值。我認為我們會看到這種蔓延持續下去。我會請吉姆給你介紹一下我們所看到的通貨膨脹的情況。

Yes. So as we indicated late last year, we're still of the same view COGS per ton inflation mid-single digits and then trailing by a fair bit of the ASP growth we're expecting. So based on our guidance, I would say we would expect gross margins to widen that spread by another 100 basis points.

是的。因此，正如我們在去年年底指出的那樣，我們仍然認為每噸 COGS 通膨率將處於中等個位數，並且會落後於我們預期的 ASP 成長。因此，根據我們的指導，我認為我們預計毛利率將再擴大 100 個基點。

In 2025, over 2024, that's even after overcoming the temporary P&L effects of the inventory reduction. So I think that bodes well for 2025, both well for 2026 and beyond.

到 2025 年，甚至超過 2024 年，這甚至是在克服庫存減少的暫時損益影響之後。所以我認為這對 2025 年、2026 年及以後來說都是好兆頭。

So over the arc of history, we've widened the price cost spread. It's not a straight line, but it's pretty consistent over time, and I don't see why that would end.

因此，在歷史長河中，我們擴大了價格成本差距。它不是一條直線，但隨著時間的推移它相當一致，我不知道為什麼它會結束。

Great, Jim. And Ward, maybe just to one of your earlier comments, I think you said in Q4, the cement margin was healthier relative to the -- what you saw in ready mix. Just how is that evolving in 2025? I mean I think nat gas prices are a bit higher. Just curious how we should think about that cement versus ready mix in 2025.

太好了，吉姆。沃德，也許只是針對您之前的一條評論，我記得您說過，在第四季度，水泥利潤率相對於預拌混凝土更為健康。到 2025 年，情況將會如何發展？我的意思是我認為天然氣價格有點高。只是好奇我們該如何看待 2025 年的水泥與預拌混凝土。

I would tell you, I think, considerably better than about ready mix in 2025. Even as we're looking at cement for the quarter, I mean, pricing was constructive. The fact is the business really performed well despite pretty significant headwinds from a weather perspective in both November and December. We saw nice revenues in cement.

我想告訴你，我認為，這比 2025 年的預拌混凝土好得多。即使我們正在關注本季的水泥價格，我的意思是，定價也是建設性的。事實是，儘管 11 月和 12 月的天氣條件相當不利，但業務表現仍然良好。我們看到水泥業務的收入不錯。

We saw good gross profit. We saw good gross margins, good EBITDA. Importantly, that [FM 7] operation that we opened it was running at greater than 90% of availability there in the fourth quarter. After we opened that up. So again, we're not going to be cement every place.

我們看到了良好的毛利。我們看到了良好的毛利率和良好的 EBITDA。重要的是，我們啟動的 [FM 7] 營運在第四季度的可用性超過了 90%。在我們打開它之後。所以再說一次，我們不會把每個地方都用水泥來澆灌。

We're going to be cement where it's really strategic to us and in Dallas-Fort Worth that is really strategic. And mid loading is a fantastic cement plant.

我們將在對我們具有真正戰略意義的地方鞏固地位，在達拉斯-沃斯堡，這具有真正戰略意義。中期負荷是一個很棒的水泥廠。

Now if you think about what's happening relative to ready-mix, volumes relatively flat there. The delimit that ready-mix has -- is ready mixing significant aggregate price increases. It's taking cement price increases, and it's hard for ready-mix to keep pricing ahead of that.

現在，如果您思考一下預拌混凝土的情況，您會發現那裡的產量相對穩定。預拌混凝土的界線是－預拌混凝土價格大幅上漲。水泥價格不斷上漲，預拌混凝土的價格很難維持領先。

So if we think about what the combination is going to look like, you're going to see some margin compression in ready-mix. But again, if we think about ready-mix, it's so much of a shock absorber for our company.

因此，如果我們考慮一下這種組合會是什麼樣子，您會看到預拌混凝土的利潤率壓縮。但是，如果我們再考慮一下預拌混凝土，它對我們公司來說就是一個很好的避震器。

We have it in very select markets. It's important to us in places like Dallas-Fort Worth in Arizona. Your question really was geared around cement, and I wanted to make sure I gave you a good robust snapshot of the way cement is performing because if you could really see it at a granular basis, you'd be very comfortable with it as are we.

我們在非常特定的市場有它。這對我們這些亞利桑那州的達拉斯-沃斯堡地區的人來說很重要。您的問題實際上是關於水泥的，我想確保我為您提供了有關水泥性能的良好而全面的快照，因為如果您真的可以在細節的基礎上看到它，您會像我們一樣對它感到非常滿意。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the call back over to Ward Nye for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給沃德·奈，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Christine. Thank you all for joining today's earnings conference call. As we close the chapter of our 30th year as a public company and look forward to the next 30 years, you should expect Martin Marietta to continue building on its solid foundation of past successes.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。感謝大家參加今天的收益電話會議。當我們結束作為上市公司的第 30 年並展望未來 30 年時，您應該期待馬丁瑪麗埃塔繼續在過去成功的堅實基礎上再接再厲。

With our world-class teams and proven strategic priorities, underpinned by our resilient aggregates-led business and unparalleled markets, Martin Marietta is well poised to deliver sustainable growth and shareholder value for years to come. We look forward to sharing our first quarter 2025 results in a few months.

憑藉我們世界一流的團隊和經過驗證的戰略重點，加上我們富有彈性的以骨料為主導的業務和無與倫比的市場，馬丁瑪麗埃塔已準備好在未來幾年內實現可持續增長和股東價值。我們期待在幾個月後分享我們的 2025 年第一季業績。

As always, we're available for any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you again for your time and continued support of Martin Marietta.

像往常一樣，我們隨時可以解答您的任何後續問題。再次感謝您抽出時間並繼續支持 Martin Marietta。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。