Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello. Welcome to Martin Marietta's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website. I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Jacklyn Rooker, Martin Marietta's Director of Investor Relations. Jacklyn, you may begin .

你好。歡迎參加 Martin Marietta 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音，並將在公司網站上重播。現在我將電話轉給主持人 Jacklyn Rooker 女士，她是 Martin Marietta 的投資者關係總監。傑克林，你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Martin Marietta's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me today are Ward Nye, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Nickolas, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加 Martin Marietta 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長沃德‧奈 (Ward Nye)；吉姆‧尼古拉斯（Jim Nickolas），執行副總裁兼財務長。

Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws in connection with future events, future operating results, or financial performance.

今天的討論可能包括美國證券法定義的與未來事件、未來營運績效或財務績效有關的前瞻性陳述。

Like other businesses, Martin Marietta is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We undertake no obligation, except as legally required, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether resulting from new information, future developments or otherwise. Please refer to the legal disclaimers contained in today's earnings release and other public filings, which are available on both our own and the Securities and Exchange Commission's website.

與其他企業一樣，馬丁·瑪麗埃塔也面臨風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來發展或其他原因。請參閱今天的收益報告和其他公開文件中包含的法律免責聲明，這些聲明可以在我們自己的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

We have made available, during this webcast and on the Investors section of our website, supplemental information that summarizes our financial results and trends. As a reminder, all financial and operating results discussed today are for continuing operations.

我們在本次網路廣播期間以及我們網站的投資者部分提供了總結我們財務表現和趨勢的補充資訊。提醒一下，今天討論的所有財務和經營業績都是針對持續經營業務的。

In addition, non-GAAP measures are defined and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix to the supplemental information as well as our filings with the SEC and are also available on our website.

此外，非 GAAP 衡量標準已在補充資訊附錄以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中定義並與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準進行了協調，也可在我們的網站上取得。

Today's earnings call will begin with Ward Nye, who will discuss our third quarter operating performance, our preliminary view for 2025 and supporting market trends. Jim Nickolas will then review our financial results and capital allocation. After which, Ward will provide closing comments. A question-and-answer session will follow. Please limit your Q&A participation to one question.

今天的財報電話會議將由 Ward Nye 開始，他將討論我們第三季的營運業績、我們對 2025 年的初步看法以及支持的市場趨勢。然後吉姆·尼古拉斯將審查我們的財務表現和資本配置。之後，沃德將發表結案評論。隨後將進行問答環節。請將您參與的問答僅限於一個問題。

I will now turn the call over to Ward.

我現在將把電話轉給沃德。

Thank you, Jacklyn, and thank you all for joining this teleconference. During the third quarter, we experienced a series of well-chronicled extreme weather events, including significant July precipitation together with Tropical Storm Debby in North Carolina. Hurricane Beryl in Texas and Hurricane Helene across much of our Southeast footprint.

謝謝傑克林，也謝謝大家參加這場電話會議。第三季度，我們經歷了一系列歷史悠久的極端天氣事件，包括北卡羅來納州的 7 月強降水和熱帶風暴黛比。德州的貝裡爾颶風和海倫颶風席捲了我們東南部的大部分地區。

First and foremost, we're grateful that our employees and their families are safe. Our thoughts, prayers and ongoing support remain focused on those who have suffered so disproportionately during these natural disasters. We're particularly mindful of our neighbors in Western North Carolina as they begin the long process of rebuilding.

首先，我們很高興我們的員工及其家人安全。我們的思念、祈禱和持續的支持仍然集中在那些在這些自然災害中遭受嚴重苦難的人們身上。我們特別關心北卡羅來納州西部的鄰居，因為他們開始了漫長的重建過程。

Aside from the human cost of these events, we and a host of other businesses were affected by the storms. In our specific case, project delays and inefficiencies negatively impacted our financial results. And as a consequence, we revised our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.07 billion at the midpoint.

除了這些事件造成的人員損失外，我們和許多其他企業也受到了風暴的影響。在我們的具體案例中，專案延誤和效率低下對我們的財務表現產生了負面影響。因此，我們將 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引修訂為中位數 20.7 億美元。

To help better demonstrate the severity of these weather events during the last two quarters to our upstream product shipments, we provided two case studies on page eight of our supplemental information. The first case study is particularly revealing relative to cement.

為了更好地展示過去兩個季度這些天氣事件對我們上游產品發貨的嚴重程度，我們在補充資料的第八頁提供了兩個案例研究。第一個案例研究對於水泥尤其具有啟發性。

As you will recall, the second quarter's significant precipitation was particularly notable in Dallas-Fort Worth, our company's single largest market area, resulting in an 18% decline in our mid low-teen cement shipments. Encouragingly, as the weather improved, so did Midlothian's third quarter shipments.

您可能還記得，第二季的顯著降水在我們公司最大的單一市場區域達拉斯沃斯堡尤為明顯，導致我們的中低端水泥出貨量下降了 18%。令人鼓舞的是，隨著天氣好轉，中洛錫安第三季的出貨量也有所改善。

Shifting now to aggregates. Our implied fourth quarter shipment guide reflects a 5% increase in shipments, a notable improvement relative to the third quarter's 4% decline. Our fourth quarter view is primarily based on October's trends and reasonable expectations for the remainder of the year.

現在轉向聚合。我們隱含的第四季出貨量指南反映出出貨量成長了 5%，相對於第三季 4% 的下降而言，這是一個顯著的改善。我們對第四季的看法主要基於 10 月的趨勢和對今年剩餘時間的合理預期。

These statistics demonstrate the important irony of disruptive and destructive weather. Planned shipments are not generally cancelled, they're delayed. And depending on seasonality and severity, resumption of planned shipments usually occurs in the following months and/or quarters.

這些統計數據顯示了破壞性和破壞性天氣的重要諷刺意義。計劃的發貨通常不會被取消，而是會被延遲。根據季節性和嚴重程度，計劃發貨通常會在接下來的幾個月和/或季度內恢復。

Despite these weather-related events, I'm pleased to highlight some of our team's accomplishments. First, we achieved the best year-to-date safety incident rates in our company's history, inclusive of our newly acquired businesses.

儘管發生了這些與天氣有關的事件，我還是很高興地強調我們團隊所取得的一些成就。首先，我們實現了公司歷史上迄今為止最好的安全事故率，包括我們新收購的業務。

Operationally, our teams achieved record quarterly aggregates gross profit per ton of $8.16, record third quarter cash flows from operations and record third quarter revenues and gross profit in our Magnesia Specialties business. Given the totality of the quarter's uncontrollable and exigent circumstances, these are notable records upon which we intend to build.

在營運方面，我們的團隊實現了創紀錄的每噸季度總毛利 8.16 美元，創紀錄的第三季度營運現金流，以及創紀錄的 Magnesia Specialties 業務第三季收入和毛利。考慮到本季無法控制和緊急的情況，這些都是我們打算建立的值得注意的記錄。

With respect to continuing to build, in October, we acquired pure aggregate assets in South Florida and Southern California, both attractive and growing Martin Marietta markets. Consistent with our strategic operating analysis and review, or SOAR plan, these bolt-on acquisitions further enhance our gross profit contribution from the aggregates product line and improve the long-term durability of our business.

關於繼續建設，十月份，我們收購了南佛羅裡達州和南加州的純總資產，這兩個市場都是有吸引力且不斷增長的馬丁瑪麗埃塔市場。與我們的策略營運分析和審查（或 SOAR 計劃）一致，這些補強收購進一步提高了我們骨材產品線的毛利貢獻，並提高了我們業務的長期耐久性。

Together, these accomplishments reflect our team's focus on matters we can control while underscoring the resiliency of our aggregates-led business, which is strategically positioned in the country's fastest-growing markets. Importantly, these results reinforce our expectation that our aggregates price cost spread will continue to expand over time, driving improvement in unit profitability through macroeconomic cycles.

總之，這些成就反映了我們團隊對我們可以控制的事情的關注，同時強調了我們以總量為主導的業務的彈性，該戰略定位於該國增長最快的市場。重要的是，這些結果強化了我們的預期，即我們的總價格成本利差將隨著時間的推移繼續擴大，從而推動宏觀經濟週期中單位獲利能力的改善。

As we look towards 2025, we remain focused on the long-term aspects of our business that we can meaningfully impact, world-class safety, the consistent and disciplined execution of our strategic plan, resolute adherence to our leading commercial strategy and prudent cost management through ongoing operational excellence efforts.

展望 2025 年，我們仍然專注於我們能夠對業務產生有意義影響的長期方面、世界一流的安全性、一致且嚴格執行我們的戰略計劃、堅決遵守我們領先的商業戰略以及審慎的成本管理通過持續不斷的卓越營運努力。

Equally, we expect product shipments will recover due to more normal weather patterns and an expected improvement in warehouse and residential construction. Preliminarily, we expect that 2025 overall aggregate shipments will increase by low single digits and aggregates pricing will increase by mid- to high single digits.

同樣，由於天氣模式更加正常以及倉庫和住宅建設的預期改善，我們預計產品出貨量將會恢復。我們初步預計，2025 年整體總出貨量將出現低個位數成長，總定價將出現中高個位數成長。

Moving now to end market trends. Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections, both rebuilding and maintaining our nation's infrastructure remains a bipartisan national strategic priority. Record levels of state and federal investment through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, or IIJA, continue to support attractive demand for highways and streets construction.

現在轉向終端市場趨勢。無論即將舉行的選舉結果如何，重建和維護我國基礎設施仍然是兩黨的國家戰略重點。透過基礎設施投資和就業法案（IIJA）創紀錄的州和聯邦投資水準繼續支持對高速公路和街道建設的有吸引力的需求。

And while growth rates in contract awards have predictably flattened, as reflected in the value of contract awards for the 12-month period ending August 31, 2024, the baseline for highway and street spending is well above historical levels. Looking ahead, funding certainty at the state and federal level will provide volume stability and support a healthy pricing environment in this aggregate intensive, often countercyclical end market for years to come.

儘管正如截至 2024 年 8 月 31 日的 12 個月期間合約授予價值所反映的，合約授予增長率已如預期趨於平緩，但高速公路和街道支出的基線遠高於歷史水平。展望未來，州和聯邦層級的資金確定性將在未來幾年內提​​供數量穩定性，並支持這個總量密集且通常是反週期的終端市場的健康定價環境。

Relative to heavy non-residential construction, the build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure supports emerging growth trends in both data centers and related energy requirements. Moreover, aggregates-intensive warehouse construction appears to be cyclically bottoming in select markets, as indicated by recent project announcements.

相對於重型非住宅建設，人工智慧基礎設施的建設支持了資料中心和相關能源需求的新興成長趨勢。此外，正如最近的專案公告所示，骨材密集型倉庫建設似乎在某些市場正在週期性觸底。

For example, Amazon is planning to build one of its largest North American distribution centers in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex with our leading aggregates position, strategic and large capacity cement plant, and affiliated ready-mix presence in this dynamic market, Martin Marietta is uniquely positioned to supply materials to this project, which is expected to begin later this year.

例如，亞馬遜計劃在達拉斯-沃斯堡大都會區建設其最大的北美配送中心之一，憑藉我們在這個充滿活力的市場中的領先骨料地位、戰略性大容量水泥廠以及附屬預拌設施，馬丁·瑪麗埃塔(Martin Marietta)具有獨特的優勢，可以為該項目供應材料，該項目預計將於今年稍後開始。

Shifting now to like non-residential and residential activity, housing availability and affordability remain key issues impacting single-family demand. While a correction of these issues will not be immediate, we believe that loosening monetary policy is an important first step. It passed its prologue, and we believe that to be the case as residential construction recovers, like non-residential activity typically follows.

現在轉向非住宅和住宅活動，住房供應和負擔能力仍然是影響單戶需求的關鍵問題。雖然這些問題不會立即被糾正，但我們認為放鬆貨幣政策是重要的第一步。它通過了序言，我們相信，隨著住宅建設的復甦，情況會如此，就像非住宅活動通常會隨之而來一樣。

In summary, we believe multiyear public construction activity, reshoring, the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out and the long-awaited single-family housing-led residential recovery all call us to support durable aggregate shipment growth and continued attractive pricing momentum for years ahead.

總而言之，我們認為，多年的公共建築活動、回流、人工智慧基礎設施建設以及期待已久的單戶住宅主導的住宅復甦都要求我們支持未來幾年持續的總出貨量增長和持續有吸引力的定價勢頭。

I'll now turn the call over to Jim to discuss our third quarter financial results. Jim?

我現在將電話轉給吉姆，討論我們第三季的財務表現。吉姆？

Thank you, Ward, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, the Building Materials business generated revenues of $1.8 billion, a 6% decrease, and gross profit of $588 million, a 9% decrease. The decline in both metrics is due to the February divestiture of our South Texas cement and related concrete businesses, along with shipment declines in all product lines, partially offset by acquisition contributions.

謝謝沃德，大家早安。第三季度，建築材料業務收入為18億美元，下降6%，毛利為5.88億美元，下降9%。這兩個指標的下降是由於我們二月剝離了南德克薩斯水泥和相關混凝土業務，以及所有產品線的出貨量下降，但部分被收購貢獻所抵消。

Aggregates gross profit per ton improved 3% to a quarterly record of $8.16, notwithstanding lower shipment volumes, highlighting the efficacy of our value over volume commercial strategy. Aggregates pricing increased 7.7% or 8.9% on an organic mix-adjusted basis.

儘管出貨量有所下降，但每噸總毛利仍成長了 3%，達到 8.16 美元的季度記錄，凸顯了我們價值高於數量商業策略的有效性。在有機組合調整的基礎上，骨材價格上漲 7.7% 或 8.9%。

Cement and concrete revenues decreased 30% to $296 million, and gross profit decreased 37% to $89 million, again, driven primarily by the divestiture of our South Texas cement plant and its related concrete operations.

水泥和混凝土收入下降 30%，至 2.96 億美元，毛利再次下降 37%，至 8,900 萬美元，這主要是由於剝離南德克薩斯水泥廠及其相關混凝土業務。

I'm pleased to report the construction of our new finished mill at Midlothian is complete, which will provide us with approximately 450,000 tons of incremental high-margin annual production capacity in the attractive North Texas market.

我很高興地向大家報告，我們位於中洛錫安的新成品工廠已竣工，這將為我們在極具吸引力的北德克薩斯市場提供約 45 萬噸的增量高利潤年產能。

Asphalt and paving revenues decreased 5% and to $343 million, and gross profit decreased 8% to $61 million. Wet weather, project delays and a softer non-residential market drove the shipment decline, while lower revenues and higher aggregates costs negatively impacted profitability.

瀝青和鋪路收入下降 5%，至 3.43 億美元，毛利下降 8%，至 6,100 萬美元。潮濕天氣、專案延誤和非住宅市場疲軟導致出貨量下降，而收入下降和總成本上升對獲利能力產生了負面影響。

Magnesia Specialties posted record third quarter revenues and gross profit of $82 million and $29 million, respectively, as benefits from strong pricing and improved lime shipments more than offset lower chemical shipments.

Magnesia Specialties 公佈第三季營收和毛利創歷史新高，分別為 8,200 萬美元和 2,900 萬美元，受益於強勁的定價和石灰出貨量的改善，足以抵銷化學品出貨量的下降。

Turning now to capital allocation and liquidity. As Ward mentioned, we achieved record third quarter cash flows from operations of $601 million, an increase of 32% as compared to the prior year quarter due primarily to working capital improvements that more than offset lower net earnings.

現在轉向資本配置和流動性。正如 Ward 所提到的，我們第三季營運現金流達到創紀錄的 6.01 億美元，比去年同期成長 32%，這主要是由於營運資本的改善抵消了淨利潤的下降。

Consistent with our long-standing capital allocation priorities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, we deployed over $2.5 billion on pure-play aggregates assets, invested [$622 million] of capital back into our business and returned $591 million to shareholders through dividend payments and share repurchases.

根據我們截至2024 年9 月30 日的九個月的長期資本配置優先事項，我們在純業務總資產上部署了超過25 億美元，將[6.22 億美元] 資本投資回我們的業務，並透過股息向股東返還5.91 億美元付款和股票回購。

In our 30 years as a publicly traded company, we have steadily maintained or increased our dividend, and this year is no exception. During the quarter, our Board of Directors approved a 7% increase to the quarterly cash dividend paid in September, reaffirming our confidence in the durability and sustainability of our company's future growth and free cash flow generation. We have now returned a total of $3.2 billion to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases since the announcement of our share repurchase program in February 2015.

作為一家上市公司 30 年來，我們一直穩定地維持或增加股息，今年也不例外。本季度，我們的董事會批准將 9 月支付的季度現金股息增加 7%，重申了我們對公司未來成長和自由現金流產生的持久性和可持續性的信心。自 2015 年 2 月宣布股票回購計畫以來，我們現已透過股利和股票回購向股東總共返還 32 億美元。

Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.0 times for the trailing 12 months ended September 30, at the low end of our targeted range of 2 times to 2.5 times , preserving financial flexibility to continue actively pursuing value-enhancing high-quality aggregates acquisitions and prudently reinvesting in our business all while returning capital to Martin Marietta shareholders through dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases.

截至9 月30 日的過去12 個月，我們的淨債務與EBITDA 比率為2.0 倍，處於2 倍至2.5 倍目標範圍的低端，保持了財務靈活性，以繼續積極尋求增值的高品質骨料收購謹慎地對我們的業務進行再投資，同時透過股息成長和機會性股票回購將資本返還給 Martin Marietta 股東。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Ward.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給沃德。

Thanks, Jim. As our third quarter and year-to-date results demonstrate, Martin Marietta remains focused on matters we can control, an unwavering commitment to safety and the environment, commercial and operational excellence and the disciplined execution of our strategic priorities.

謝謝，吉姆。正如我們第三季和今年迄今為止的業績所表明的那樣，馬丁·瑪麗埃塔仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，堅定不移地致力於安全和環境，卓越的商業和運營以及嚴格執行我們的戰略重點。

We have thoughtfully shaped and expanded our aggregates-led portfolio and deliberately built our business with leading positions in the nation's fastest-growing markets, making Martin Marietta an increasingly resilient, efficient and cash flow generative business that can consistently drive shareholder value creation.

我們深思熟慮地塑造和擴大了以總量為主導的投資組合，並刻意在全國增長最快的市場中建立了領先地位的業務，使Martin Marietta 成為一家日益具有彈性、高效和現金流生成能力的企業，能夠持續推動股東價值創造。

With these attractive underlying fundamentals, our best-in-class teams, unparalleled growth opportunities and proven strategic priorities, we're excited about the prospects in 2025 and beyond.

憑藉這些有吸引力的基本面、一流的團隊、無與倫比的成長機會和經過驗證的戰略重點，我們對 2025 年及以後的前景感到興奮。

(Operator Instructions) Kathryn Thompson, TRG.

（操作員說明）Kathryn Thompson，TRG。

I have a question on weather and then looking forward. So how does weather impact Q3 results, both from a volume and a pricing optic standpoint? And could you give color on how shipments have trended into October and really looking at post-storms?

我有一個關於天氣的問題，然後期待。那麼，從銷售量和定價角度來看，天氣如何影響第三季的業績呢？您能否詳細說明 10 月的出貨趨勢以及風暴後的情況？

Kathryn, thanks for the question. It's a good one because that really does highlight much of what happened in the quarter. Several things that I would say. Number one, as we discussed before, Q2 in its own way, was a washout. And Q3 was as well, from a weather perspective, which is why we put that supplemental slide on page 8 in the deck today because I think it does give good color relative to how significant the weather events were to our shipments.

凱瑟琳，謝謝你的提問。這是一個很好的結果，因為它確實突出了本季發生的大部分事情。我想說的幾件事。第一，正如我們之前討論的，第二季以自己的方式被淘汰。從天氣角度來看，第三季也是如此，這就是為什麼我們今天將補充幻燈片放在甲板上的第8 頁上，因為我認為相對於天氣事件對我們發貨的重要性，它確實提供了良好的色彩。

So as you can see, if you look at that slide, Q2 was really severe in DFW, and as Q3 rolled around, it wasn't as bad in DFW, and you saw a really nice snapback in volumes at Midlothian. Now Q3 was just tough across the Southeast and much of the East.

正如您所看到的，如果您查看這張投影片，您會發現DFW 第二季度的情況確實很嚴重，而隨著第三季的到來，DFW 的情況並沒有那麼糟糕，而且您會看到Midlothian 的銷量出現了非常好的回升。現在，第三季東南部和東部大部分地區的情況都很艱難。

Look, here's your takeaway. We literally had a hurricane every 2.5 weeks in Q3. And they were coming through and disproportionately hitting our Eastern business and a lot of it, frankly, our Southeastern business.

看，這是你的外賣。在第三季度，我們實際上每 2.5 週就有一​​次颶風。他們對我們的東部業務以及坦率地說，我們的東南部業務造成了不成比例的打擊。

And to your point, Kathryn, if we're looking at businesses that have our highest ASPs, if we're looking at businesses that have our highest margins, that's the sweet spot. And that's the part that really was hit hard, hard, hard in the quarter. So if we're looking at it overall, did it affect the shipments?

就你的觀點而言，凱瑟琳，如果我們正在尋找具有最高平均售價的企業，如果我們正在尋找具有最高利潤的企業，那就是最佳點。這就是本季真正受到嚴重打擊的部分。那麼，如果我們從整體來看，這是否影響了出貨量？

I think, notably. Disproportionate drive our shipments down, absolutely. It was a disproportionate driver of what happened to the profitability because of the (technical difficulty). And then the other piece of it is it made it more difficult in some instances to get the same degree of midyear price increases this year that we saw last year. So you really had almost a trifecta of issues that went through.

我認為，值得注意的是。這絕對會導致我們的出貨量下降。這是盈利能力發生變化的不成比例的驅動因素，因為（技術難度）。另一方面是，在某些情況下，今年年中價格上漲的程度變得更加困難，就像我們去年看到的那樣。所以你確實經歷了幾乎三重問題。

Now to the second part of your question, it's a good one. I was reading the Wall Street Journal this morning, it was talking about much of the country being in some degree of a drought in October. And the fact is October has been much more normal.

現在談談你問題的第二部分，這是一個很好的問題。今天早上我在讀《華爾街日報》，報道說十月全國大部分地區正遭受某種程度的乾旱。事實上，十月的情況要正常得多。

And what we've seen in October is really what is driving what you've seen relative to our aggregate forecast going forward because if you look at it, what it's basically saying is we're anticipating aggregates to be up 5% in Q4. And that's really on the back of what we're seeing in October.

我們在 10 月看到的情況確實是推動我們未來整體預測的因素，因為如果您看一下它，它基本上是說我們預計第四季度將整體成長 5%。這確實是我們在 10 月看到的情況的背後。

So several things I would note, as I think about the durability and how real that is. One, we're seeing the tonnage. Two, we're seeing our customers continue to add to their backlogs. So we're seeing nice sequential build in customer backlogs. And the other thing to me that's telling is our customers are hiring right now, too.

當我考慮耐用性和真實性時，我會注意到一些事情。第一，我們看到了噸位。第二，我們看到我們的客戶繼續增加他們的積壓訂單。因此，我們看到客戶積壓訂單的順序良好。對我來說另一件事很能說明問題，我們的客戶現在也在招募。

So when you're seeing good activity that we're seeing in October when we're seeing dry weather, when we're seeing good activity from backlog from a customer perspective, and we're seeing contractors hiring right now, we think all of those together give a nice picture of what's to come. But when you step back from it, too, it answers, I think, the essence of your question.

因此，當你看到我們在十月份看到的良好活動時，當我們看到乾燥的天氣時，當我們從客戶的角度看到積壓的良好活動時，當我們看到承包商現在正在招聘時，我們認為所有這些共同描繪了未來的美好景象。但當你也退後一步時，我認為它回答了你問題的本質。

How much did weather matter? Answer, it mattered a lot. How much did it matter relative to volume? A lot. How much does it matter relative to profitability? Frankly, even more than it did relative to volume. So Kathryn, I hope that helps.

天氣有多重要？回答，這很重要。相對於體積有多大影響？很多。它對獲利能力有多重要？坦白說，甚至比相對數量還要多。凱瑟琳，我希望這會有所幫助。

Trey Grooms, Stephens.

特雷格魯姆斯、史蒂芬斯。

Ward and Jim, so kind of a follow-on to that. Clearly, the Carolinas, particularly Western North Carolina, which is (technical difficulty) backyard, were unfortunately devastated by Helene. And there's other areas as well that have seen pretty serious issues as a result of the extreme weather. If you could maybe talk about some of the recovery efforts that are going on there and what that could mean for Martin Marietta, given that it is right here in your backyard.

沃德和吉姆，是這一切的後續。顯然，卡羅萊納州，特別是北卡羅來納州西部，這是（技術難度）後院，不幸地被海倫摧毀了。由於極端天氣，其他地區也出現了相當嚴重的問題。您能否談談那裡正在進行的一些恢復工作以及這對馬丁瑪麗埃塔意味著什麼，因為它就在您的後院。

Yes, Trey, it is in our backyard, and you're right. And Western North Carolina did feel that, the words that I gave in the prepared remarks were disproportionately, so we are trying to make sure that we're doing all we can to help that part of the state rebuild. I mean, here are some data points for you.

是的，特雷，它就在我們的後院，你是對的。北卡羅來納州西部確實認為，我在準備好的演講中所說的話是不成比例的，因此我們正在努力確保我們正在盡一切努力幫助州的這一部分進行重建。我的意思是，這裡有一些數據點供您參考。

[NCDOT] estimates that the Helene recovery expenses will be between $5 billion and $6 billion, just relative to NCDOT. Now to put some other color to that, typically, the federal government reimbursement rate for that is between 60% and 65%, which means as a practical matter, North Carolina share of that burden is going to be about $2 billion.

[NCDOT] 估計 Helene 的恢復費用將在 50 億至 60 億美元之間，僅相對於 NCDOT 而言。現在再加上一些其他的色彩，聯邦政府的報銷率通常在 60% 到 65% 之間，這意味著實際上，北卡羅來納州承擔的這一負擔將約為 20 億美元。

Now as we think about how we're positioned to help rebuild that part of the state, several things I'd point to. Number one, we have operations in North Carolina that go nicely west of [Hickory] So we're getting into the foothills, getting into the [Appalachians] with our North Carolina operations.

現在，當我們思考如何定位以幫助重建州的這一部分時，我想指出幾件事。第一，我們在北卡羅來納州的業務位於[Hickory]以西，所以我們正在進入山麓，透過我們的北卡羅來納州業務進入[阿巴拉契亞山脈]。

It's important to remember, too, that with the Blue Water transaction, we actually acquired a number of sites in Eastern Tennessee. So that now puts us into a position that we can come into those areas, both from Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina to make sure we're providing the work and the support that, that area is going to need.

同樣重要的是要記住，透過 Blue Water 交易，我們實際上收購了田納西州東部的許多土地。因此，現在我們可以從田納西州東部和北卡羅來納州西部進入這些地區，以確保我們提供該地區所需的工作和支援。

Now importantly, too, [NCDOT] has said that it's going to be business as usual in terms of construction and maintenance activity outside of the work for Helene. So we're not going to see other parts of the state not continuing to advance.

現在同樣重要的是，[NCDOT] 表示，在 Helene 工作之外的施工和維護活動將照常進行。因此，我們不會看到該州其他地區不繼續進步。

North Carolina can do that and take care of what's happening relative to Helene. And I think this is an important piece of it, too, Trey, because when we talk about SOAR and where we have built our business and why. One of the areas that we've long said is we want to be in states that are in a good fiscal condition because when these type of things happen, we need to be in places that states can manage that.

北卡羅來納州可以做到這一點，並處理與海倫有關的事情。Trey，我認為這也是其中很重要的一部分，因為當我們談論 SOAR 以及我們在哪裡建立業務以及原因時。我們長期以來一直說的一個領域是，我們希望處於財政狀況良好的州，因為當發生此類事件時，我們需要處於州可以管理的地方。

And it was interesting, I was reading a piece in the (technical difficulty) last week. And it outlined that North Carolina was only one of a handful of states, literally, that use a budget stress test to determine how much should be set aside in its rainy day fund.

很有趣，我上週讀了一篇（技術難度）的文章。它概述說，北卡羅來納州只是少數幾個使用預算壓力測試來確定應急基金中應預留多少資金的州之一。

And the state currently has a surplus of $6 billion in that. And if you're keeping score at home, that's about $4.25 billion more than we saw in the last budget. So will there be rebuilding? Yes. Is it going to be extensive? Yes. Will it take not months or years, but probably the better part of a decade? My guess is that it will and will be there to help, absolutely.

該州目前有 60 億美元的盈餘。如果你在家裡記帳的話，這比我們在上一個預算中看到的大約多 42.5 億美元。那麼還會有重建嗎？是的。會不會很廣泛？是的。會不會需要幾個月或幾年的時間，而可能需要十年的時間？我的猜測是，它絕對會提供幫助。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital。

I was wondering if you can go over the acquisitions that you made in a little bit more detail in South Florida and California. Any more color on the size of the acquisitions, the volume contribution, how pricing looks in these markets? And maybe help us think about if there's any either a benefit in 4Q or any kind of related headwind as you integrate and what the outlook for '25 will play?

我想知道您是否可以更詳細地回顧一下您在南佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州的收購。關於這些市場的收購規模、銷售貢獻、定價情況還有更多的資訊嗎？也許可以幫助我們思考，當你整合時，第四季是否有任何好處或任何相關的逆風，以及 25 年的前景將如何？

Garik, thanks for the question. Yes, I can help you with that a little bit. So number one, both these transactions are totally consistent with SOAR. And what I mean by that is you've seen us historically go into relatively new markets for (technical difficulty) like we did in California or Florida in this instance.

加里克，謝謝你的提問。是的，我可以幫助你一點。所以第一，這兩筆交易都與 SOAR 完全一致。我的意思是，您已經看到我們歷史上進入相對較新的市場（技術難度），就像我們在加利福尼亞州或佛羅裡達州所做的那樣。

And we basically do platform transactions and then we come behind them with a series of bolt-ons where we can augment our position. That's exactly what you're seeing in both of these deals.

我們基本上進行平台交易，然後我們透過一系列附加措施來擴大我們的地位。這正是您在這兩筆交易中所看到的。

So I would tell you several things. One, both are complementary. They are both pure aggregate bolt-ons. So again, one in the High West in Southern California, one where we bought Blue Water. Equally, and I think this is important, both our percentage margin and unit margin accretive.

所以我想告訴你幾件事。一、兩者是互補的。它們都是純骨材螺栓固定件。再說一遍，位於南加州高西部的一處，我們在那裡購買了 Blue Water。同樣，我認為這一點很重要，我們的利潤率和單位利潤率都會增加。

So these are attractive [pure stone] businesses. The combined reserves are over 150 million tons in areas with notable reserve shortages. So again, we continue to augment our reserve position in those markets.

所以這些都是有吸引力的[純石材]業務。儲量嚴重短缺的地區合計儲量超過1.5億噸。因此，我們再次繼續增加我們在這些市場的儲備部位。

Integration is going to be complete very, very quickly. New pricing will be effective on January 1. What's important is doing all of these together and with both these transactions, it's still sub $1 billion on what we've done. Our leverage remains completely within our target range, and the pipeline of aggregates acquisitions remains active. So we think there's more to come on that.

整合將會非常非常快速地完成。新定價將於 1 月 1 日生效。重要的是，將所有這些工作一起進行，並且透過這兩項交易，我們所做的工作仍然不到 10 億美元。我們的槓桿率仍然完全在我們的目標範圍內，骨材收購管道仍然活躍。所以我們認為還有更多的事情要做。

Relative to the guide for the rest of this year, we've effectively put nothing in the guide for the rest of this year for these businesses because as you recall, the (technical difficulty) purchase price accounting in this means that we had to take all of the inventory there and mark it up to fair market value. So what you anticipate after a transaction is for those early months, you're not going to see that much from a P&L perspective.

相對於今年剩餘時間的指南，我們實際上沒有在今年剩餘時間的指南中為這些企業添加任何內容，因為正如您所記得的，（技術難度）購買價格核算意味著我們必須採取那裡的所有庫存並將其標記為公平市場價值。因此，您對交易後的最初幾個月的預期是，從損益表的角度看，您不會看到那麼多。

But these transactions, frankly, Garik, like so much of this year has been a setup for 2025. This puts us in better positions in markets where we want to have these leading positions. These are attractive pure stone transactions. And again, we believe the commercial trends that we will see at these operations will continue to be very attractive.

但坦白說，Garik，這些交易就像今年的大部分交易一樣，都是為 2025 年做準備的。這使我們在我們希望保持領先地位的市場中處於更好的位置。這些都是極具吸引力的純石材交易。我們再次相信，我們將在這些業務中看到的商業趨勢將繼續非常有吸引力。

And part of what I think is worth noting as well. If we go back and take a look at even the Blue Water transactions that we've done, and what we've done relative to getting those businesses back up to something that looks more like Martin Marietta market pricing, when you and I had this conversation at Q2, there was about a $5 a ton delta on ASP between the acquired operations and heritage at that point. Now that's about $3 a ton.

我認為其中一部分也值得注意。如果我們回過頭來看看我們所做的藍水交易，以及我們為讓這些企業恢復到看起來更像馬丁·瑪麗埃塔市場定價所做的事情，當你和我有這個在第二季度的談話中，當時收購的業務和遺產之間的平均售價大約有5 美元/噸的差異。現在大約是每噸3美元。

So I think if you take the overall philosophy that we have, look at the geographies in which we've made these transactions, what the reserve base looks like and what it can mean in our heritage business and acquired businesses, as you can tell probably from my tone and words, we're pretty excited about these deals.

因此，我認為，如果你了解我們的整體理念，看看我們進行這些交易的地區、儲備基礎是什麼樣的，以及它對我們的傳統業務和收購業務意味著什麼，你可能會知道從我的語氣和言語來看，我們對這些交易感到非常興奮。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the pricing revision and guidance. So normally, midyear set you folks up for pricing the following year. So can you just expand on the drivers of the negative revisions to the pricing outlook this year?

我想知道您是否可以談談定價修訂和指導。因此，通常情況下，年中會讓大家為下一年的定價做好準備。那麼，您能否詳細說明今年定價前景負面修正的驅動因素？

And then as we think about the outlook for mid- to high single digits in '25, you folks had previously spoken about moving to higher sustainable pricing than what we've seen in the past, which would essentially be the mid-single-digit part of the range. So I don't know if that's a mix of M&A that's driving that or other factors, but can I trouble you to expand in those areas, please.

然後，當我們思考 25 年中高個位數的前景時，你們之前曾談到要轉向比我們過去看到的更高的可持續定價，這基本上是中個位數範圍的一部分。所以我不知道這是否是併購的混合因素或其他因素推動的，但我可以麻煩您在這些領域進行擴張嗎？

No, happy to. So several things. Answering the back part of your question first. I just think we're going to see good, steady durable pricing going forward. Look, I think that mid- to high probably, with an emphasis on high, is probably the right way to think of it next year because one, we're just going to see more price in our heritage businesses. Number two, we're going to continue to see the acquisitions move up nicely.

不，很高興。有幾件事。先回答你問題的後半部。我只是認為我們未來會看到良好、穩定、持久的定價。看，我認為中高可能，重點是高，可能是明年考慮它的正確方式，因為我們只會看到我們的傳統業務的價格更高。第二，我們將持續看到收購活動順利進行。

If we think about what happened just here in the last three months, I think several things very candidly, One, did weather impacted delays from a geographic mix perspective caused some headwinds? You bet. If we're looking also at what some of the geographic mix has been, meaning we're selling more fines or other lower-priced materials, that was the piece of it as well.

如果我們想想過去三個月發生的事情，我非常坦率地認為有幾件事，第一，從地理組合的角度來看，天氣影響延誤是否造成了一些阻力？你打賭。如果我們還要考慮一些地理組合，這意味著我們正在銷售更多的細粉或其他價格較低的材料，這也是其中的一部分。

And when you take the weather-impacted delays and the other issues faced with the year, we did see a lower percentage of midyear price increases this year than we saw last year. That's nothing that causes me any concern as I look at it. I think this year was faced with some very challenging near-term dynamics that helped drive that, which means the carry over next year is smaller than it was this year. So we're only looking at about 80 basis points that are carry over for next year.

當考慮到受天氣影響的延誤和今年面臨的其他問題時，我們確實發現今年年中價格上漲的百分比低於去年。當我看到它時，這並沒有引起我任何擔憂。我認為今年面臨著一些非常具有挑戰性的近期動態，這有助於推動這一趨勢，這意味著明年的結轉比今年要小。因此，我們只關註明年結轉的大約 80 個基點。

So I think that gives you a sense as we think about the build, the type of resolve we have around a very good marketplace next year with respect to pricing. And again, what I'm taking by, Jerry, it's hard to produce what we produce on a spec market basis and put it out there and sell it for what we sell it for.

因此，我認為，當我們考慮構建時，這會讓您有所了解，我們圍繞明年在定價方面非常好的市場所做的解決方案類型。傑瑞，我再說一遍，我們很難在規格市場的基礎上生產我們生產的產品，然後把它放在那裡並以我們出售的價格出售。

I continue to believe that the value of what we're putting on the ground and the value that we add to overall construction is still something that has some running room ahead of it for all the right reasons. But I hope that answers your question.

我仍然相信，出於所有正確的原因，我們所投入的價值以及我們為整體建設增加的價值仍然有一定的運作空間。但我希望這能回答你的問題。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Understanding the impact of the weather on 3Q in '24. As you look to '25, can you just talk about how backlogs have trended? And if there's anything you pull up from either an end market perspective or a geographic perspective?

了解天氣對 24 年第三季的影響。展望 25 年，您能談談積壓的趨勢嗎？您是否從終端市場角度或地理角度得出了一些結論？

And then just given the outsized weather impact this year, does that give you maybe a little bit more visibility or confidence into volumes for the following year, given we may be seeing kind of a catch-up or a rebound year?

然後，考慮到今年巨大的天氣影響，考慮到我們可能會看到某種追趕或反彈的一年，這是否會讓您對下一年的銷量有更多的了解或信心？

Thank you for the question, Anthony. I think it certainly does. And if we're looking at current backlogs, I mean, they are up very nicely relative to the prior year quarter and sequentially as well, both in the mid-single digits range right now.

謝謝你的提問，安東尼。我認為確實如此。如果我們看看目前的積壓訂單，我的意思是，它們相對於去年同期和上一季都有很好的成長，目前都在中等個位數範圍內。

So when you're sitting there at this point of the year with that degree of up with what I think is a lot of upside ahead of us, that's what starts to give us a sense of that next year clearly is going to be a much improved year relative to volume. If we think about end users all by themselves, there's no reason, from my perspective, that we shouldn't expect public to be better, frankly, for the next couple of years at least.

因此，當你在今年的這個時候坐在那裡，我認為我們面前有很大的上升空間時，這開始讓我們感覺到明年顯然將是一個很大的進步。改善。如果我們只考慮最終用戶本身，那麼從我的角度來看，坦白說，我們沒有理由不期望公眾會變得更好，至少在接下來的幾年裡。

If we look at the IIJA funds that are actually in the system today, I mean, what's been obligated is one thing. What's actually been spent and what's been reimbursed is actually considerably lower. And frankly, it's in the 20% range right now. So there's so much more of that to come.

如果我們看看今天系統中實際存在的 IIJA 資金，我的意思是，所承擔的義務是一回事。實際支出和報銷的金額實際上要低得多。坦白說，目前這個比例在 20% 範圍內。所以還有更多這樣的事情發生。

And then when we tackle that together with state DOT budgets, that are actually in a very good position. I gave a little bit of color a few minutes ago where North Carolina is just in a host of different perspectives.

然後，當我們與州交通部預算一起解決這個問題時，實際上處於非常有利的位置。幾分鐘前，我對北卡羅來納州的情況做了一些介紹，從不同的角度來看。

But again, if we're looking at our top 10 states, 80-plus of those actually see their budgets up for next year. Equally, if we look at [resi], we believe, clearly, resi is not going to be something that's going to turn on a dime, but we are seeing that, we believe, beginning to turn with some green shoots in a series of markets. And frankly, we almost have to see it. The population dynamic trends have been so significant in the states in which we have leading positions, that the single-family housing market is in dire need of greater activity.

但同樣，如果我們看看排名前 10 的州，其中 80 多個州實際上預計明年的預算會增加。同樣，如果我們看看[resi]，我們顯然相信，resi 不會立即發生變化，但我們相信，我們正在看到，在一系列的過程中，開始出現一些綠芽。坦白說，我們幾乎必須看到它。在我們處於領先地位的州，人口動態趨勢非常顯著，以至於單戶住房市場迫切需要更多的活動。

But I think importantly, too, and you heard me mention in the prepared remarks, when we're seeing things like suddenly warehousing showing some degrees of green shoots. Obviously, that has been a sector of heavy non-res that has been looking for bottom for a while. We think it's really finding bottom. And now when we're seeing Amazon put in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, one of its largest facilities in North America, we think that's the moment.

但我認為也很重要，你在準備好的發言中聽到我提到，當我們看到諸如倉儲突然出現某種程度的萌芽之類的事情時。顯然，這是一個重度非資源行業，一段時間以來一直在尋找底部。我們認為它確實正在尋找底部。現在，當我們看到亞馬遜在達拉斯-沃斯堡大都會（其北美最大的設施之一）投入使用時，我們認為現在就是時候了。

But equally, as we start thinking about AI and what that's going to mean and energy and what that's going to mean and the reassuring that we know is coming. These, to me, underscore what I believe will be a nice, steady sequential multiyear build. It should be that.

但同樣，當我們開始思考人工智慧及其意味著什麼、能源及其意味著什麼以及我們知道即將到來的令人放心的事情時。對我來說，這些強調了我相信這將是一個良好、穩定的連續多年建設。應該是這樣。

And then relative to the light nonres, keep in mind, that's actually been better over the last couple of quarters on a percentage basis of our volume than heavy nonres has been. And that tells me, as we see a res recovery, we're likely to see a more quickly than usual recovery in light nonres.

然後，請記住，相對於輕型非雷斯，在過去幾個季度中，從我們交易量的百分比來看，實際上比重型非雷斯要好。這告訴我，當我們看到水災復原時，我們很可能會看到輕度非水災的復原速度比平常更快。

So I think those things, as we build them together, Anthony, is what gives us a high degree of confidence next year and what we're talking about on volumes. I do think, as a company, I do think as an industry, we're usually pretty good at having a good feel for what's happening commercially.

所以我認為，安東尼，當我們共同建造這些東西時，這些東西會給我們明年帶來高度的信心，也是我們正在談論的銷售的原因。我確實認為，作為一家公司，作為一個行業，我們通常非常擅長對商業上正在發生的事情有很好的感覺。

I'm not sure that we're always great on knowing precision, what's going to happen with volumes. So I think if we've done anything, we'd probably err to the side of being relatively cautious with respect to our volume outlook next year, and that still has us up.

我不確定我們是否總是擅長了解精確度以及數量會發生什麼。因此，我認為，如果我們採取了任何措施，我們可能會對明年的銷售前景採取相對謹慎的態度，但這仍然讓我們保持樂觀。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Thanks for all that color, that was very helpful. Just maybe wanted to switch over to the cost side of the kind of price cost dynamic. And just if you could give us a little bit more color on what you're kind of anticipating there as we head into 2025?

感謝所有這些顏色，這非常有幫助。也許只是想切換到價格成本動態的成本面。您是否可以向我們介紹一下您對 2025 年的期望？

No, happy to. And I'll ask Jim to take you through what we're seeing from an inflation perspective and otherwise.

不，很高興。我將請吉姆帶您從通膨和其他角度了解我們所看到的情況。

Yes. So the underlying inflation for this quarter was actually coming close to where we expected, about mid-single digits, call it, 5%. The additional COGS per ton inflation we saw was largely due to our inventory drawdown for the quarter. And that will continue probably a little bit into next quarter. But for 2025 in total, I would -- I'm still sticking with my mid-single-digit cost inflation view overall, which would be obviously well below where (technical difficulty) clearly that our ASP expectations are mid- to high single digits.

是的。因此，本季的基本通膨實際上接近我們的預期，約為中個位數，稱之為 5%。我們看到的每噸銷貨成本的額外通膨主要是由於我們本季的庫存減少。這種情況可能會持續到下個季度。但對於 2025 年總體而言，我仍然堅持我的總體中個位數成本通膨觀點，這顯然遠低於（技術難度），顯然我們的 ASP 預期為中個位數到高個位數。

So the price/cost spread should continue to trend favourably. And again, inflation, if anything, it seems to be trending down. So more to come on that next year. We'll come up with after Q4 earnings.

因此，價格/成本價差應持續呈現有利趨勢。再說一次，通貨膨脹（如果有的話）似乎呈現下降趨勢。明年還會有更多這樣的事情發生。我們將在第四季財報公佈後公佈。

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

菲利普‧吳，杰弗里斯。

Ward, great to hear that aggregates volumes are trending up 5% in the fourth quarter now that weather has cleared out. Does that number include some of the recent acquisitions you've just announced. And (technical difficulty) P&L impact, it doesn't have much.

Ward，很高興聽到天氣已經放晴，第四季總銷量呈現成長 5% 的趨勢。這個數字是否包括您剛剛宣布的一些近期收購？而且（技術難度）損益影響不大。

And when we look at the 2025, I think, the low single-digit volume framework, is that on an organic basis as well? Just trying to get a better handle what you're actually seeing out there?

當我們展望 2025 年時，我認為低個位數的交易量框架也是有機的嗎？只是想更好地處理您實際看到的情況嗎？

No. Look, great questions, Angel. Thank you so much for that. So short answer is no, no, no. Q4 is not taking into account anything from the new acquisitions. And again, we talked a little bit about the purchase price accounting. I'm sorry, Phil.

不。聽著，很好的問題，天使。非常感謝你。所以簡短的回答是不，不，不。第四季沒有考慮新收購的任何內容。我們再次討論了購買價格會計的問題。對不起，菲爾。

And so it doesn't have anything in there for Q4. And again, we'll come back and really factor those into the guide when we come back to you in February, Phil, and give you a better feel for what we think 2025 will look like. And that's where you will see the Southern California and South Florida transactions factored into it.

所以第四季沒有任何內容。菲爾，當我們在 2 月回覆您時，我們將再次將這些因素納入指南中，讓您更好地了解我們認為 2025 年會是什麼樣子。在那裡你會看到南加州和南佛羅裡達州的交易被納入其中。

Okay. So fourth quarter volume, up 5%. And next year up low single digits, largely organic. That's really encouraging to see.

好的。因此第四季的銷量成長了 5%。明年的成長幅度較低，主要是有機成長。這確實令人鼓舞。

That's correct. Yes, Phil. You got it.

這是正確的。是的，菲爾。你明白了。

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

泰勒布朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Lots of good color on the call. But Jim, if I look at CapEx, I think it's up to $875 million at the midpoint from $700 million at the midpoint, I think, last quarter. It seems like a pretty big jump. And I'm just curious if there was some opportunistic land purchases? Or was that Midlothian? Any color there? And just any early thoughts on CapEx into '25?

通話中有很多不錯的色彩。但吉姆，如果我看看資本支出，我認為上個季度的中點資本支出為 7 億美元，中點為 8.75 億美元。這似乎是一個相當大的跳躍。我只是好奇是否有一些機會主義的土地購買？或者說那是中洛錫安人？有顏色嗎？關於 25 年資本支出的早期想法？

Yes. So it's largely a function of the two acquisitions that Ward mentioned. One of those is structured in a way that's being treated as CapEx, and that is an operational acquisition. So that bump up in CapEx guide for the year is almost solely attributable to that deal. And next year, we typically guide to 9%, 9.5% of revenues. So probably not a bad way to think about it to start for next year. We'll have more detail next year, though.

是的。所以這很大程度上是沃德提到的兩筆收購的結果。其中之一的結構方式被視為資本支出，即營運收購。因此，今年資本支出指南的成長幾乎完全歸因於該交易。明年，我們通常會指導收入的 9%、9.5%。因此，從明年開始考慮這可能是一個不錯的方法。不過，明年我們會提供更多細節。

Brent Thielman, D.A. Davidson.

布倫特·蒂爾曼，D.A.戴維森。

Ward or Jim, just with respect to the Midlothian expansion. I guess when you think about the supply-demand dynamics in that region, would you expect to sell out that incremental capacity next year? Or is there a ramp-up period with that new capacity we need to consider?

沃德或吉姆，只是關於中洛錫安擴張。我想，當您考慮該地區的供需動態時，您是否預計明年會出售增量產能？或者我們需要考慮新產能是否有一個提升期？

Thanks for the question. The short answer is, this is going to be a ramp-up period for that. Look, that's an important marketplace to us. We want to go about that in a very thoughtful way. Midlothian is performing actually very well right now.

謝謝你的提問。簡而言之，這將是一個加速期。看，這對我們來說是一個重要的市場。我們希望以一種非常深思熟慮的方式來解決這個問題。中洛錫安現在的表現其實非常好。

I mean it's been interesting that we actually saw improved gross profit per ton at Midlothian. We've seen very constructive pricing in Midlothian, which tells you what a different marketplace in North Texas is from many others. And so we will be very thoughtful. We'll be very careful and we'll be very methodical about how we go about that at Midlothian.

我的意思是，有趣的是，我們實際上看到中洛錫安每噸的毛利有所提高。我們在中洛錫安看到了非常有建設性的定價，這告訴您北德克薩斯州的市場與其他許多市場有何不同。所以我們會非常周到。對於中洛錫安的處理方式，我們會非常小心、非常有條理。

So short answer is, don't expect all of that next year, expect that over a period of time, and yes, it will ramp.

所以簡短的答案是，不要指望明年會發生所有這些，預計在一段時間內，是的，它會增加。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

大衛‧麥格雷戈，長弓研究中心。

Ward, I guess I want to start with just a clarification on Garik's question, and then I have a question for you. But on the clarification, you had talked about the delta going from $5 to $3 a ton. I guess that how many tons would you say, just approximately, that $3 a ton would apply to? And then I have another question.

沃德，我想我想先澄清加里克的問題，然後我有一個問題要問你。但在澄清時，您談到三角洲價格將從每噸 5 美元升至 3 美元。我猜你會說每噸 3 美元大約適用於多少噸？然後我還有另一個問題。

Yes. No, I don't know that we've ever come out with precise tonnage on that. But what I would refer you back to, take a look at Blue Water and take a look at Frei because those are really the two different transactions to which that metric applies.

是的。不，我不知道我們是否曾經給出過精確的噸位數據。但我建議您回過頭來看看 Blue Water 和 Frei，因為這實際上是該指標適用的兩種不同的交易。

So it's really going to mean Denver in one instance. Central and Eastern Tennessee in another, and in primarily portions of Northern Alabama. Obviously, the Blue Water transaction covered more states than that. But from a gravity perspective, that's most of it, David.

因此，在某種情況下，這確實意味著丹佛。田納西州中部和東部的另一個地區，以及阿拉巴馬州北部的主要部分地區。顯然，藍水交易覆蓋的州比這個多。但從重力的角度來看，這就是大部分，大衛。

Right. So you're caught up in California now?

正確的。那麼你現在被困在加州了嗎？

We are largely caught up in California. That's exactly right.

我們主要陷入加州。完全正確。

Right. Okay. And I guess my question was more regarding tariffs and cement. And just mindful that in Midlothian, you're quite removed from the import market influence. Down in Houston, there's probably a $40 to $50 ton price discrepancy between those two markets, which you alluded to a moment ago. How much would DFW benefit from cement tariffs?

正確的。好的。我想我的問題比較是關於關稅和水泥。請注意，在中洛錫安，您完全不受進口市場的影響。在休士頓，這兩個市場之間可能存在 40 至 50 美元噸的價格差異，正如您剛才提到的那樣。DFW 將從水泥關稅中受益多少？

Yes, that's a great question. I mean there's just not a lot of import activity that goes into DFW to begin with because the transportation logistics becomes so complicated, getting it there by some form of either river or ocean going vessel then offloading then going through the boards then putting it on trucks and then sending it a long way.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，一開始進入DFW 的進口活動並不多，因為運輸物流變得非常複雜，需要通過某種形式的內河或遠洋船隻將其運送到那裡，然後卸載，然後通過木板，然後將其裝上卡車然後送到很遠的地方。

So look, I think Dallas Worth, simply because of its location that far from (technical difficulty) is different. I think Dallas Fort Worth, because of the overall economy in DFW. I mean when we bought [TXI,] we bought it in large measure, not exclusively thinking the Dallas-Fort Worth would probably be the best-looking heavy side building materials market in the United States for the next 25 or 30 years. And we've been right on that. And I don't see anything that makes us change our view on it.

所以看，我認為達拉斯值得，只是因為它的位置遠（技術難度）是不同的。我認為拉斯沃斯堡，因為 DFW 的整體經濟。我的意思是，當我們購買 [TXI] 時，我們在很大程度上購買了它，並不僅僅認為達拉斯-沃斯堡可能是未來 25 或 30 年美國最好看的重型建築材料市場。我們在這一點上是正確的。我沒有看到任何事情可以讓我們改變對此的看法。

So is it already a good market? Yes. Do we anticipate it's going to stay a good market? Yes. What I answer your question, look, if tariffs come in, does it make a really good market look even better? The answer is yes, I think it does.

那麼它已經是一個好的市場了嗎？是的。我們預計它會保持良好的市場嗎？是的。我回答你的問題是，如果徵收關稅，是否會讓一個真正好的市場看起來更好？答案是肯定的，我認為確實如此。

Mike Dudas, Vertical Research.

麥克·杜達斯，垂直研究。

Jacklyn, Jim, Ward. Again, I appreciate all the observations looking towards your business in 2025. Maybe you can maybe look at it from a geographic basis, as you look at your volume and pricing guidance. Is there areas of your East versus Western business that you feel more comfortable with?

傑克琳、吉姆、沃德。我再次感謝所有對您 2025 年業務的觀察。也許您可以從地理角度來看待它，就像您查看數量和定價指南一樣。與西方業務相比，您對哪些領域感到更滿意？

Is there any upside surprises in some of the regions that we might typically not think about? Is that also, I assume, may impact the mix and your ability to grow gross profit per ton in 2025?

一些我們通常不會想到的地區是否有任何上行驚喜？我認為這是否也可能影響到 2025 年的產品組合以及您每噸毛利的成長能力？

Mike, thanks for the question. I would say several things. One, as we discussed earlier in the call, the pricing dynamic that we needed to address in California has largely been addressed. And now we have a more formidable business there with the M&A that we've done. So I would continue to think in particular that Southern California would be a marketplace that should be a relatively bright spot for us.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。我想說幾件事。第一，正如我們之前在電話會議中討論的那樣，我們需要在加州解決的定價動態已基本解決。現在，透過我們已經完成的併購，我們在那裡擁有了更強大的業務。因此，我仍然認為南加州將是一個對我們來說相對亮點的市場。

Number two, I would say Texas is going to continue to be a bright spot for us. Clearly, North Texas, as I look at the market, I really think of it, North Texas, Central Texas, South Texas in those three buckets. I think North Texas is going to continue to be the strongest of those markets.

第二，我想說德克薩斯州將繼續成為我們的亮點。顯然，當我觀察市場時，我真的想到了北德克薩斯州，北德克薩斯州，德克薩斯州中部，德克薩斯州南部這三個區域。我認為北德克薩斯州將繼續成為這些市場中最強勁的。

I think Central Texas is going to be absolutely fine as well. And again, the [TxDOT] program there shows growth going into next year. again, Florida will continue to be an important market for us for two different reasons. One, we've historically been the largest importer of [granite] into that market. So we had a disproportionate infrastructure view in that marketplace.

我認為德州中部也絕對沒問題。那裡的 [TxDOT] 計劃再次顯示出明年的增長。出於兩個不同的原因，佛羅裡達州將繼續成為我們的重要市場。第一，我們一直是市場上最大的[花崗岩]進口商。因此，我們對該市場的基礎設施有著不成比例的看法。

Now though that we're getting in state operations that can really start feeding more concrete and feed more private work, we're going to see continuing attractive work in Florida. If we think about North Carolina, we've gone through that. One, the DOT program is up year-over-year. Number two, we've talked about what would be of necessity, a significant rebuild in the western part of the state and we think that will continue to be attractive.

現在，儘管我們正在進入州政府，真正可以開始提供更多的混凝土和更多的私人工作，但我們將在佛羅裡達州看到持續有吸引力的工作。如果我們想想北卡羅來納州，我們就經歷過這樣的事。第一，DOT 計劃逐年增加。第二，我們已經討論了該州西部地區的重大重建的必要性，我們認為這將繼續具有吸引力。

But equally, if we look at Indiana, their budget's up next year. If we look at Georgia, their budget's up almost -- it's over 7% next year. Colorado's budget is up 14%. Arizona's budget is equally up double digits next year. So if I'm thinking about overall end users, I mean, that clearly addresses it relative to the public side. And I've said earlier, that ought to be good for at least a couple of years. Equally, as we think about private in those states, those are all fast-growing states that have seen significant population trends.

但同樣，如果我們看看印第安納州，他們明年的預算也會增加。如果我們看看喬治亞州，他們的預算幾乎增加了——明年將超過 7%。科羅拉多州的預算增加了 14%。亞利桑那州明年的預算同樣成長兩位數。因此，如果我考慮的是整體最終用戶，我的意思是，這顯然是相對於公共方面而言的。我之前說過，這至少在幾年內應該是好的。同樣，當我們考慮這些州的私營部門時，這些都是快速增長的州，人口趨勢顯著。

So my view is the long-term and medium term and near-term volume picture ought to be increasingly attractive and long term, medium and short term, the commercial side, and the pricing piece of it ought to outkick whatever historical coverage is. That's going to continue to perform in ways that I will think will be a differentiator relative to other industrial sectors.

因此，我的觀點是，長期、中期和近期的成交量圖應該越來越有吸引力，而長期、中期和短期、商業方面以及定價部分應該超過任何歷史報道。我認為這將繼續以相對於其他工業部門的差異化方式表現。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

蒂姆納坦納斯，沃爾夫研究。

Wanted to dig a little bit more into the end market outlook on slide 7 of your supplemental information. So specifically, I guess, starting with the nonres private sector piece, the data centers are generally pretty low single digits of total percent. The other pieces tend to be a lot bigger. Like what are you seeing in data centers? Is there something specific to your geographies where you know of some big, lumpy projects coming through?

想在補充資料的幻燈片 7 上進一步深入了解最終市場前景。因此，具體來說，我想，從非資源私營部門開始，資料中心在總百分比中所佔的比例通常相當低。其他部分往往要大得多。就像您在資料中心看到的那樣？您是否知道您所在地區正在經歷一些大型、不穩定的專案？

I'm sorry, Timna. I didn't mean to interrupt. Was there more, Timna? I didn't mean to interrupt you.

對不起，提姆娜。我無意打擾。還有更多嗎，提姆納？我不是故意打擾你的。

Well, I was just hoping for a little more color like on why you might have been more neutral on warehouses and manufacturing given some of the [ IRA ] projects. So just a little more color on that segment.

好吧，我只是希望能有更多的色彩，例如為什麼考慮到一些 [IRA] 項目，你可能對倉庫和製造更加中立。因此，在該部分上多一點顏色即可。

That's very helpful. So look, if we're looking at data centers and what's coming from the build-out of AI, in particular, I mean, I can look at a big Google project in Kansas City that has got significant tonnage with it. I can look at actually Microsoft data centers oddly enough in Western North Carolina, near [ Hickory ] and (technical difficulty). Google, again, is establishing two new data centers, campuses in South Carolina. Those have a combined investment of about $3.3 billion.

這非常有幫助。所以，如果我們正在研究資料中心以及人工智慧的建構會帶來什麼，我的意思是，我可以看看堪薩斯城的一個大型谷歌項目，該項目擁有大量的資料中心。我可以奇怪地看到位於北卡羅來納州西部的微軟資料中心，靠近 [Hickory] ​​和（技術難度）。谷歌再次在南卡羅來納州建立兩個新的資料中心和園區。這些項目的總投資約為 33 億美元。

So again, it's one thing to see that degree of data centers going in. It's another to see the AI coming with or somewhere behind it. But the energy piece of this is going to be real. And the energy piece of it is going to be very, very aggregates intensive.

再說一次，看到資料中心的發展程度是一回事。看到人工智慧隨之而來或在其背後的某個地方是另一回事。但這其中的能量部分將是真實的。其中的能源部分將非常非常集中。

And to your point, I'm shifting going from data warehousing to just warehousing. I mentioned before, I do believe that warehouse construction does appear to be cyclically bottoming right now. I mean we talked about that Amazon facility that's being built in (technical difficulty) Texas.

對於你的觀點，我正在從資料倉儲轉向單純倉庫。我之前提到過，我確實相信倉庫建設目前確實似乎正在周期性觸底。我的意思是我們討論了正在德克薩斯州（技術難度）建造的亞馬遜設施。

Again, if we just look at the quantum of aggregates and cement and concrete that will go into that, it's going to be really very, very significant. And then when we start thinking about the other light nonres demand that will likely come behind that, at least some -- those are some of the specifics, Timna, if you're just looking really from a micro perspective, what does some of the markets look like and what are we seeing from data that gives us a good sense of confidence around that. That's part of what we're looking at.

再說一次，如果我們只看其中所涉及的骨材、水泥和混凝土的數量，那將是非常非常重要的。然後，當我們開始考慮其背後可能存在的其他輕量級非資源需求時，至少是一些——這些是一些具體細節，蒂姆納，如果你只是從微觀角度來看，那麼一些需求是什麼？的情況以及我們從數據中看到的內容讓我們對此充滿信心。這是我們正在研究的一部分。

Okay. And then on the infrastructure side, I wanted to ask kind of high level, I guess. I don't want to make you go through all the different state budgets again, but there has been a disappointment, as you know, since the 2021 passage of IIJA. There's been kind of a trickle or a slow processing of some of those dollars. What is it about 2025 that's really going to kick into gear? And how does that offset some of the cost inflation that's accumulated since it was passed?

好的。然後在基礎設施方面，我想我想問一些高層的問題。我不想讓你們再次審視所有不同的國家預算，但正如你們所知，自 2021 年 IIJA 通過以來，情況一直令人失望。其中一些資金的處理有點緩慢或緩慢。2025 年真正會發生什麼事？這如何抵消自法案通過以來累積的一些成本上漲？

Timna, I would say a couple of things. One, 2024 has really been the first year that we've seen significant or, frankly, any federal IIJA dollars coming through. So if you think about what that means is [practical manner,] you're seeing it for the very first year in 2024.

提姆納，我想說幾件事。首先，2024 年確實是我們看到大量聯邦 IIJA 資金到位的第一年，或者坦率地說，是任何联邦 IIJA 資金到位的第一年。因此，如果你考慮一下這意味著什麼[實際的方式]，你就會在 2024 年看到它的第一年。

And you're going to have some of that carryover into 2025. Then you're going to have new work that's being bid in 2025 as well. So I think the states are moving forward. And of course, the dialogue you and I were having a few minutes ago was largely built around those state budgets.

其中一些將延續到 2025 年。那麼 2025 年你也會有新的作品競標。所以我認為各州正在向前邁進。當然，你和我幾分鐘前的對話主要是圍繞著這些國家預算展開的。

At the same time, I think here's the big surprise, I think, in some respects. I think if somebody had said to us in 2021, hey, by the time you're in the last quarter of 2024, do you think you will have only seen 20-some percent of those dollars that had been authorized moving through the system?

同時，我認為在某些方面這是一個很大的驚喜。我認為，如果有人在 2021 年對我們說，嘿，到 2024 年最後一個季度時，您是否認為您只會看到已授權通過系統轉移的美元的 20% 左右？

I think the answer would have been kind of that feels a little bit slow, but we know the dollars are there. We know the dollars are coming. And that's why I have the sense that look, if we're looking at the public side of it, should that be almost irrefutably better in '25 and '24 and continue to build in '26.

我認為答案可能有點慢，但我們知道美元就在那裡。我們知道美元即將到來。這就是為什麼我有這樣的感覺：如果我們從公共方面來看，25 年和 24 年的情況應該無可辯駁地更好，並在 26 年繼續發展。

Frankly, Tim, I think it almost has to, when we look at the federal dollars and we look at the state budgets and the geography in which we're operating. So that's the way that we've looked at that and basically handicapped it in our minds.

坦白說，提姆，我認為當我們審視聯邦資金、州預算和我們經營所在的地理位置時，這幾乎是必須的。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式，基本上在我們的頭腦中阻礙了它。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

麥可費尼格，美國銀行。

Just a clarification question, Ward. Your full year '24 shipment guide, obviously down 2.5% to 4%. If it was flat, if underlying demand was flat, how much weather do you think '24 versus '23 weighed on growth? Is it 1%, 2%? I guess the genesis of the question, Ward, is if you're growing low single-digit growth in 2025, that's organic, is the volume growth actually a little bit higher next year, barring weather just isn't a disaster?

只是一個澄清問題，沃德。24 年全年出貨量指南明顯下降 2.5% 至 4%。如果成長持平，如果潛在需求持平，您認為「24 與 23」的天氣對經濟成長的影響有多大？是1%還是2%？Ward，我想這個問題的根源是，如果你在 2025 年實現低個位數增長，這是有機的，明年的銷量增長實際上會更高一點，除非天氣不好，這不是一場災難嗎？

Michael, I think it certainly could be. And I think if we've done anything, I think we've taken a relatively thoughtful, cautious view of next year because I think if we go to it, I don't want to give percentages on what I think weather has done this year.

邁克爾，我想這當然有可能。我認為如果我們做了什麼的話，我認為我們對明年採取了相對深思熟慮、謹慎的看法，因為我認為如果我們這樣做，我不想給出我認為天氣造成的影響的百分比年。

But it would not be a small percentage on what weather has done this year. And keep in mind, last year, we had a weather year that was maybe normal to dry. This year, we've had one that has been epically wet. If we just hit something next year that feels normal, particularly in geographies that are disproportionately important to us like the Southeast. Look, I think there are a lot of moving parts that point to attractive trends and growth for next year.

但與今年天氣造成的影響相比，這所佔比例不小。請記住，去年我們的天氣可能是正常的乾燥年份。今年，我們遇到了一場非常潮濕的天氣。如果我們明年能取得一些成果，那感覺很正常，尤其是在像東南部這樣對我們極為重要的地區。看，我認為有很多變化的部分預示著明年有吸引力的趨勢和成長。

That's really helpful, Ward. And just a follow-up on the pricing, let's say, closer to the high single-digit range potentially. Is that relatively even through the year? Does that not include midyears? Is that more second half weighted? Just any kind of anecdotal kind of commentary you would like to think about, how we think about that preliminary '25 as that kind of moves through the year?

這真的很有幫助，沃德。可以說，這只是定價的後續行動，可能更接近高個位數範圍。全年情況相對均勻嗎？這不包括年中嗎？後半段的權重更大嗎？只是您想考慮的任何類型的軼事評論，我們如何看待 25 年的初步報導？

As you said, it is preliminary. And no, it does not take into account midyears for next year, and that's typically the way that we do that. Even when we'll come back to you and give you more precision in February. It's usually not taking into account midyear. So that simply gives it some degree of tailwind as well. So that's how I would encourage you to think about that.

正如你所說，這是初步的。不，它沒有考慮明年的年中，而這通常是我們這樣做的方式。即使我們會在二月回覆您並為您提供更準確的資訊。通常不考慮年中。所以這也為它帶來了一定程度的順風。這就是我鼓勵你思考這個問題的方式。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call to Ward for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉給沃德，讓他致閉幕詞。

Thank you again for joining our third quarter 2024 earnings call. Martin Marietta's future is bright, thanks to the consistent and thoughtful execution of our strategic priorities by our world-class teams.

再次感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。馬丁瑪麗埃塔的未來是光明的，這要歸功於我們的世界級團隊始終如一、深思熟慮地執行我們的策略重點。

Looking ahead, we're confident in our ability to continue delivering leading financial safety and operational performance while extending our long track record of delivering sustainable growth and superior shareholder value. We look forward to sharing our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results in February. As always, we're available for any follow-up questions. Thank you again for your time and your support of Martin Marietta.

展望未來，我們對繼續提供領先的財務安全和營運績效的能力充滿信心，同時延續我們在實現永續成長和卓越股東價值方面的長期記錄。我們期待在 2 月分享我們的第四季和 2024 年全年業績。像往常一樣，我們可以解答任何後續問題。再次感謝您的寶貴時間以及對馬丁瑪麗埃塔的支持。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。