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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to Martin Marietta's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website.
美好的一天,歡迎參加 Martin Marietta 的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,今天的通話正在錄音,並將在公司網站上重播。
I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Jacklyn Rooker, Martin Marietta's, Director of Investor Relations. Jacklyn, you may begin.
我現在將把電話轉給東道主馬丁瑪麗埃塔投資者關係總監 Jacklyn Rooker 女士。傑克林,你可以開始了。
Jacklyn Rooker
Jacklyn Rooker
Thank you. It's my pleasure to welcome you to our Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Ward Nye, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Nickolas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws in connection with future events, future operating results or financial performance.
謝謝。我很高興歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長沃德‧奈 (Ward Nye);和吉姆·尼古拉斯,執行副總裁兼財務長。今天的討論可能包括美國證券法定義的與未來事件、未來營運績效或財務績效有關的前瞻性陳述。
Like other businesses, Martin Marietta is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We undertake no obligation, except as legally required to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether resulting from new information, future developments or otherwise. Please refer to the legal disclaimers contained in today's earnings release and other public filings, which are available on both our own and the Securities and Exchange Commission's website. We have made available during this webcast and on the Investors section of our website, supplemental information that summarizes our financial results and trends.
與其他企業一樣,馬丁·瑪麗埃塔也面臨風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。除非法律要求公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述,無論是由於新資訊、未來發展或其他原因,我們不承擔任何義務。請參閱今天的收益報告和其他公開文件中包含的法律免責聲明,這些聲明可以在我們自己的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。我們在本次網路廣播期間以及我們網站的投資者部分提供了總結我們財務表現和趨勢的補充資訊。
As a reminder, all financial and operating results discussed today are for continuing operations. In addition, non-GAAP measures are defined and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix to the supplemental information as well as our filings with the SEC and are also available on our website. Ward and I will begin today's earnings call with a discussion of our operating performance and the outlook for the remainder of 2023.
提醒一下,今天討論的所有財務和經營業績都是針對持續經營業務的。此外,非 GAAP 衡量標準已在補充資訊附錄以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中定義並與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準進行了協調,也可在我們的網站上取得。沃德和我將在今天的財報電話會議開始時討論我們的經營業績和 2023 年剩餘時間的前景。
Jim Nickolas will then review our financial results and capital allocation after which Ward will conclude with end market trends and our preliminary view for 2024. A question-and-answer session will follow. Please limit your Q&A participation to one question.
然後,吉姆·尼克拉斯 (Jim Nickolas) 將審查我們的財務業績和資本配置,之後沃德 (Ward) 將總結終端市場趨勢和我們對 2024 年的初步看法。隨後將進行問答環節。請將您參與的問答僅限於一個問題。
I will now turn the call over to Ward.
我現在將把電話轉給沃德。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Thank you, Jacklyn. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining today's teleconference. Martin Marietta once again delivered record results across nearly every financial and operational measure extending our long track record of industry-leading performance and responsible, profitable growth.
謝謝你,傑克林。歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。馬丁·瑪麗埃塔(Martin Marietta)再次在幾乎所有財務和營運指標上取得了創紀錄的業績,延續了我們行業領先的業績和負責任的盈利增長的長期記錄。
Thanks to the dedication of our colleagues across the enterprise, we achieved accompanying milestone by exceeding $2 billion in trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA for the first time. Our exceptional third quarter is highlighted by a 42% improvement in aggregates gross profit per ton despite lower shipments, further validating the benefits of our value-over-volume commercial strategy and our commitment to operating with excellence while meeting and exceeding our customers' needs. Importantly, while our work in continuous safety improvement is never done, I'm proud to report the company concluded our safest third quarter on record, with total and lost time incident rates surpassing world-class levels. Another third quarter event, it's notable that just yesterday on October 31, we finalized the sale of our Tehachapi California cement plant substantially completing the planned asset sales from the 2021 Lehigh Hanson West acquisition.
感謝整個企業同事的奉獻,我們實現了相應的里程碑,過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 首次超過 20 億美元。儘管出貨量下降,但我們第三季的表現卻異常出色,每噸總毛利仍成長了42%,這進一步驗證了我們價值高於數量的商業策略的優勢,以及我們在滿足並超越客戶需求的同時追求卓越營運的承諾。重要的是,雖然我們在持續安全改進方面的工作從未完成,但我很自豪地報告,公司完成了有史以來最安全的第三季度,總事故率和損失時間事故率均超過世界一流水平。另一件第三季事件,值得注意的是,就在昨天,即10 月31 日,我們最終完成了加州特哈查皮水泥廠的出售,基本上完成了2021 年收購Lehigh Hanson West 的計劃資產出售。
Consistent with our SOAR 2025 initiatives, this divestiture of a nonstrategic asset provides us with additional balance sheet flexibility to advance our well-articulated path of quality aggregates-led growth. As detailed in today's earnings release, we raised our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $2.05 billion to $2.15 billion, as pricing momentum will more than offset lower shipments and recently increased energy and related costs.
與我們的 SOAR 2025 計劃一致,此次非戰略資產的剝離為我們提供了額外的資產負債表靈活性,以推進我們明確的高品質整體主導型成長之路。正如今天的財報中所詳述的,我們將 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引上調至 20.5 億至 21.5 億美元,因為定價勢頭將足以抵消出貨量下降以及最近增加的能源和相關成本。
Turning now to Martin Marietta's third quarter financial performance. We established all-time quarterly records across a number of areas, including consolidated total revenues of $2 billion, a 10.1% increase. Consolidated gross profit of $676 million, a 38.6% increase. Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations of $6.94 of 48.6% increase. Adjusted EBITDA of $705.2 million, a 32.3% increase and aggregates gross profit per ton of $7.89 of 42.4% increase. These results reinforce the durability of our aggregates-led business which is strategically situated in well-curated geographies. These record results also reflect our team's focus on what we can control despite heightened geopolitical tensions and persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including growth restrictive monetary policy and continued inflation.
現在轉向馬丁瑪麗埃塔第三季的財務表現。我們在多個領域創造了歷史季度記錄,其中綜合總收入達到 20 億美元,成長 10.1%。綜合毛利為6.76億美元,成長38.6%。持續經營業務攤薄後每股收益為 6.94 美元,成長 48.6%。調整後 EBITDA 為 7.052 億美元,成長 32.3%,每噸總毛利為 7.89 美元,成長 42.4%。這些結果增強了我們以骨材為主導的業務的持久性,該業務策略性地位於精心策劃的地區。這些創紀錄的表現也反映出,儘管地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和宏觀經濟逆風持續存在,包括成長限制性貨幣政策和持續通膨,但我們團隊仍專注於我們能夠控制的事情。
Shifting now to our third quarter shipment and pricing results. Aggregate shipments declined 7.3%. Our value-over-volume strategy is clearly an unapologetic component of that result as a softening demand in certain Midwest and Southwest markets, which was partially offset by continued strength in key Southeast markets. Aggregates pricing fundamentals remain very attractive with pricing increasing 20% or 17.2% on a mix-adjusted basis as we continue to expect fair value for our depleting resources. Near sold-out Texas cement conditions, particularly in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex continue to drive strong product demand in a favorable commercial environment.
現在轉向我們的第三季出貨量和定價結果。總出貨量下降 7.3%。由於某些中西部和西南市場的需求疲軟,而東南主要市場的持續走強部分抵消了這一結果,因此我們的價值超過銷售的策略顯然是這一結果的一個無可辯駁的組成部分。整體定價基本面仍然非常有吸引力,在混合調整的基礎上定價增加了 20% 或 17.2%,因為我們繼續預期消耗資源的公允價值。德州水泥接近售罄的情況,特別是在達拉斯-沃斯堡大都會,在有利的商業環境下繼續推動強勁的產品需求。
Third quarter cement shipments of 1.1 million tons were flat to last year's comparable period and pricing grew 18.9% as we continue to largely sell as much as we can produce. We expect favorable Texas Cement pricing dynamics will continue and accordingly announced a $15 per ton price increase effective January 1.
第三季水泥出貨量為 110 萬噸,與去年同期持平,價格上漲 18.9%,因為我們繼續大量銷售我們能生產的產品。我們預計德州水泥的有利定價動態將持續下去,因此宣布從 1 月 1 日起每噸價格上漲 15 美元。
Turning to our targeted downstream businesses. Ready-mixed concrete shipments increased 3.6%, while pricing improved to solid 20.9%. Asphalt shipments increased 5.7% and pricing increased 6.7%.
轉向我們的目標下游業務。預拌混凝土出貨量成長 3.6%,而價格則穩定成長 20.9%。瀝青出貨量成長 5.7%,價格成長 6.7%。
Before providing our outlook for the remainder of 2023 and a preliminary view of 2024, I'll turn the call over to Jim to conclude our third quarter discussion with a review of the company's financial results. Jim?
在提供我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望和對 2024 年的初步看法之前,我將把電話轉給吉姆,以回顧公司的財務業績來結束我們的第三季度討論。吉姆?
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Ward, and good morning, everyone. The Building Materials business posted record quarterly revenue of $1.92 billion, a 10.5% increase over last year's third quarter and record quarterly gross profit of $649.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 38.4%. Aggregates gross profit improved to 32.1% relative to the prior year period to a record $440.6 million as pricing growth more than offset lower shipments and higher production costs, underscoring the strength and effectiveness of our value-over-volume commercial strategy as a distinguishing hallmark to grow profitability through economic cycles.
謝謝沃德,大家早安。建築材料業務錄得創紀錄的季度收入19.2億美元,比去年第三季增長10.5%,創紀錄的季度毛利6.495億美元,年增38.4%。總毛利較上年同期成長32.1%,達到創紀錄的4.406 億美元,原因是價格成長足以抵銷出貨量下降和生產成本上升的影響,凸顯了我們價值超過數量的商業策略的實力和有效性,這是我們的顯著標誌。透過經濟週期提高獲利能力。
The business also achieved in aggregates gross profit margin of 36.2%, setting a new all-time profitability record despite the shipment decline. Our Texas Cement business also extended its track record of outstanding performance. Revenues increased 18.3% to $199.1 million, while gross profit increased 61.5% to $108.7 million. Pricing growth and lower energy costs more than offset higher raw materials and maintenance costs. Domestic production capacity constraints and robust demand continued to drive extremely tight supply, particularly in North Texas. As a reminder, Martin Marietta has taken 2 notable steps to increase our Texas Cement production capacity to capitalize on the supply-demand dynamics.
儘管出貨量下降,該業務的總毛利率仍達到36.2%,創下歷史新紀錄。我們的德州水泥業務也延續了其出色的業績記錄。營收成長 18.3%,達到 1.991 億美元,毛利成長 61.5%,達到 1.087 億美元。價格成長和能源成本下降足以抵消原材料和維護成本的上升。國內產能限制和強勁需求繼續導致供應極度緊張,特別是在德克薩斯州北部。謹此提醒,馬丁瑪麗埃塔採取了兩項值得注意的措施來提高我們的德州水泥產能,以充分利用供需動態。
First, we've wholly converted our construction cement customers from type 1, type 2 cement to less carbon-intensive Portland-limestone cement, also known as Type 1L at both our Midlothian and Hunter, Texas plants. This conversion not only reduces our carbon footprint but also expanded our production capacity by approximately 10%. Second, our Midlothian, Texas plant is installing a new finish mill providing 450,000 tons of incremental high-margin annual production capacity.
首先,我們已將建築水泥客戶從 1 型、2 型水泥完全轉換為碳強度較低的波特蘭石灰石水泥,在我們的 Midlothian 和德克薩斯州亨特工廠也稱為 1L 型水泥。此次轉換不僅減少了我們的碳足跡,還將我們的產能擴大了約 10%。其次,我們位於德州中洛錫安的工廠正在安裝一座新的精軋機,可提供 45 萬噸的高利潤年產能。
This project should be fully operational in the third quarter of 2024. As previously discussed, we began utilizing the new silos to low customer trucks in July. In addition to increasing cement storage capacity by over 60%, these silos have considerably enhanced the customer experience by reducing load-out cycle times and are saving our customers up to an hour at peak shipping times each day. Our concrete revenues increased 25.3% to $285.2 million and gross profit increased 81.8% to $34.1 million, driven primarily by steady volume growth, pricing gains and mega project contributions, which more than offset higher upstream raw material and delivery costs.
該專案應於 2024 年第三季全面投入營運。如前所述,我們於 7 月開始將新筒倉用於低客戶卡車。除了將水泥儲存容量提高 60% 以上之外,這些筒倉還透過減少裝載週期時間顯著改善了客戶體驗,並在每天的運輸高峰時段為我們的客戶節省了長達一個小時的時間。我們的混凝土收入成長了25.3%,達到2.852 億美元,毛利成長了81.8%,達到3,410 萬美元,這主要是由於銷量穩定成長、定價收益和大型專案的貢獻,這足以抵消上游原材料和交付成本的上升。
Our asphalt and paying revenues increased 14.6% to $359.9 million, and gross profit increased 33% to $66.1 million, reflecting higher selling prices and lower bitumen costs. Magnesia Specialties revenues totaled $75.5 million in the third quarter, in line with the prior period, and gross profit increased 3.6% to $21.4 million, softening demand in certain Magnesia end markets including TPO roofing and metal lining was more than offset by commercial and operational excellence initiatives and energy tailwinds. We expect demand to soften due to labor unrest in the automotive sector and magnesia end markets remaining weak in the fourth quarter, and as such, have reduced our Magnesia Specialties full year gross profit guidance.
我們的瀝青和付費收入成長了 14.6%,達到 3.599 億美元,毛利成長了 33%,達到 6,610 萬美元,反映出更高的銷售價格和更低的瀝青成本。 Magnesia Specialties 第三季營收總計7,550 萬美元,與上一季持平,毛利成長3.6%,達到2,140 萬美元,包括TPO 屋頂和金屬襯裡在內的某些Magnesia 終端市場的需求疲軟,被商業和卓越營運所抵消。倡議和能源順風。我們預計,由於汽車業的勞工騷亂和第四季度氧化鎂終端市場依然疲軟,需求將疲軟,因此我們下調了氧化鎂特種業務全年毛利指引。
During the quarter, our Board of Directors approved a 12% increase to our quarterly cash dividend paid in September, demonstrating its confidence in the durability and sustainability of our company's future growth and free cash flow generation. Our annualized cash dividend rate is now $2.96. Since our repurchase authorization announcement in February 2015, we have returned a total of $2.6 billion to shareholders through a combination of meaningful and sustainable dividends as well as share repurchases.
本季度,我們的董事會批准將 9 月支付的季度現金股息增加 12%,這表明了董事會對我們公司未來成長和自由現金流產生的持久性和可持續性的信心。我們的年化現金股利率為 2.96 美元。自 2015 年 2 月宣布回購授權以來,我們已透過有意義且可持續的股息以及股票回購相結合,向股東返還了總計 26 億美元的資金。
Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.8x as of September 30, representing balance sheet strength and flexibility to responsibly grow through quality acquisitions and prudent capital investments while returning capital to Martin Marietta to shareholders.
截至9 月30 日,我們的淨債務與EBITDA 比率為1.8 倍,這體現了資產負債表的實力和靈活性,可以透過優質收購和審慎的資本投資實現負責任的增長,同時將馬丁·瑪麗埃塔的資本返還給股東。
To conclude my prepared remarks, I want to emphasize that the record-breaking financial performance of this quarter and year-to-date has demonstrated a disciplined execution of our value-over-volume commercial strategy yields higher margins, higher profits and higher cash flow without the benefit of growing volumes.
在結束我準備好的發言時,我想強調,本季和年初至今創紀錄的財務業績表明,我們嚴格執行價值超過數量的商業策略,從而產生了更高的利潤、更高的利潤和更高的現金流沒有數量增加的好處。
With that, I'll turn the call back to Ward.
說完,我會把電話轉回沃德。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks, Jim. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year and into 2024, we remain confident Martin Marietta is well positioned to capitalize on attractive market fundamentals across our coast-to-coast footprint specifically, infrastructure demand from increased federal and state level investments and heavy industrial projects of scale should counterbalance headwinds in the light nonresidential and historically underbuilt residential sectors, which are more sensitive to tightening credit conditions and higher for longer interest rate expectations. In the third quarter, infrastructure accounted for 39% of total shipments, predictably building to a higher and more normalized portion of our overall business.
謝謝,吉姆。展望今年剩餘時間和 2024 年,我們仍然相信 Martin Marietta 處於有利位置,能夠充分利用我們從東海岸到西海岸的足跡,特別是聯邦和州級投資增加以及重工業項目帶來的基礎設施需求。規模應能抵消輕型非住宅和歷史上建設不足的住宅部門的不利因素,這些部門對信貸條件收緊更加敏感,並且對較長的利率預期更高。第三季度,基礎設施佔總出貨量的 39%,預計將在我們整體業務中佔據更高、更規範的比例。
The value of state and local government highway, bridge and tunnel contract awards a leading indicator for our future product demand is meaningfully higher year-over-year. These infrastructure contract awards grew 18% to a record $114 billion for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2023. Collectively, we anticipate that the historic increase in public sector investment from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act or IIJA, record state departments of transportation budgets and voter-approved state and local transportation ballot initiatives will provide sustained multiyear demand to this aggregates intensive often countercyclical end market.
州和地方政府公路、橋樑和隧道合約的價值是我們未來產品需求的領先指標,比去年同期顯著提高。截至2023 年9 月30 日的12 個月期間,這些基礎設施合約授予額增加了18%,達到創紀錄的1,140 億美元。總的來說,我們預計《基礎設施投資和就業法案》(IIJA)帶來的公共部門投資將出現歷史性增長,創紀錄的州部門交通預算和選民批准的州和地方交通投票舉措將為這個總量密集且經常反週期的終端市場提供持續的多年需求。
Aggregate shipments to the non-residential market accounted for 33% of our third quarter shipments. Heavy side energy and manufacturing projects of scale continue to drive demand in this segment as warehouse and data center construction continues to moderate from the post-COVID period. Construction spending for manufacturing in the United States continues to trend favorably with the August season adjusted annual rate of spending for 2023 at $198 billion, at 66% increase from the August 2022 value of $120 billion. The Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS act together with significant private investments provide funding certainty for these large-scale manufacturing and energy projects that we believe will be disproportionately and positively impactful in Martin Marietta markets. Importantly, we have both the ability and capacity to supply these large projects and with the successful execution of our commercial and operational excellence strategies will do so in a manner that is margin accretive.
非住宅市場的總出貨量占我們第三季出貨量的 33%。隨著倉庫和資料中心建設在後疫情時期繼續放緩,大規模的重型能源和製造項目繼續推動該領域的需求。美國製造業的建築支出持續保持良好趨勢,2023 年 8 月季節調整支出年率達到 1,980 億美元,比 2022 年 8 月的 1,200 億美元增長 66%。 《減少通貨膨脹法案》和 CHIPS 與大量私人投資共同行動,為這些大型製造和能源項目提供了資金確定性,我們相信這些項目將對馬丁瑪麗埃塔市場產生不成比例的積極影響。重要的是,我們有能力供應這些大型項目,並且透過成功執行我們的商業和卓越營運策略,我們將以增加利潤的方式做到這一點。
Moving to white non-residential, while third quarter shipments remained resilient, we expect the recent interest rate acceleration together with tighter commercial lending conditions may impact future demand. That said, the anticipated softness in this segment should be partially offset by the extended cycle and strength of the more aggregates intensive heavy nonresidential sector. Softening in the residential end market, which accounted for 23% of aggregate shipments this quarter, is expected to continue driven by current mortgage rates, which are nearing 23-year highs at 8%. While single-family housing starts, a leading indicator of aggregates demand signaled a near-term bottom and inflection point over the summer, the current higher rates are exacerbating affordability challenges and driving our revised expectations of soft demand in this end market.
轉向白色非住宅,雖然第三季出貨量保持彈性,但我們預期近期利率加速以及商業貸款條件收緊可能會影響未來需求。也就是說,該領域的預期疲軟應該會被骨材密集型非住宅產業的周期延長和強勁所部分抵消。佔本季總出貨量 23% 的住宅終端市場的疲軟預計將繼續受到當前抵押貸款利率的推動,目前抵押貸款利率已接近 23 年來的高點 8%。雖然單戶住房開工率這一總需求的領先指標預示著夏季即將觸底和拐點,但目前較高的利率正在加劇負擔能力的挑戰,並推動我們修正對終端市場需求疲軟的預期。
Nonetheless, we fully expect this current single-family housing slowdown will reverse once home prices and borrowing rates find equilibrium as demand far exceeds supply across key Martin Marietta markets. The result of significant underbuilding over the last decade and homeowners' reluctance to abandon low-rate mortgages. As we look to 2024, our preliminary view anticipates aggregate shipments will be effectively flat as increased infrastructure investment, coupled with robust activity from heavy nonresidential projects of scale should help balance expected softness in interest rate sensitive, private construction end markets.
儘管如此,我們完全預計,一旦房價和借款利率達到平衡,因為馬丁瑪麗埃塔主要市場的需求遠遠超過供應,當前單戶住房放緩的情況將會逆轉。這是過去十年建設嚴重不足以及房主不願放棄低利率抵押貸款的結果。展望2024 年,我們的初步觀點預計,隨著基礎設施投資的增加,加上大型非住宅項目的強勁活動,總出貨量將實際上持平,這將有助於平衡對利率敏感的私人建築終端市場的預期疲軟。
We remain confident that favorable commercial dynamics underpinned by our value-over-volume pricing strategy will be supported by 2023 exit rates as well as the realization of our previously announced January 1, 2024, price increases. Together, we expect this will drive low double-digit growth in aggregates pricing and another year of profitable growth in 2024.
我們仍然相信,2023 年的退出率以及我們先前宣布的 2024 年 1 月 1 日漲價的實現將支持我們的價值與數量定價策略所支撐的有利商業動態。我們預計這將推動整體定價達到兩位數的低成長,並在 2024 年實現另一個獲利成長。
To conclude, our team achieved impressive results in nearly every aspect of our business against a challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. One of Martin Marietta enduring qualities is our proven ability to adapt quickly and respond effectively and durably to changing circumstances. Accordingly, we are extremely proud of our company's exceptional safety, operational and financial performance through the first 9 months of 2023.
總而言之,在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟和地緣政治背景下,我們的團隊在業務的幾乎各個方面都取得了令人印象深刻的成果。馬丁瑪麗埃塔經久不衰的品質之一是我們經過驗證的快速適應能力以及對不斷變化的環境做出有效和持久反應的能力。因此,我們對公司在 2023 年前 9 個月的卓越安全、營運和財務表現感到非常自豪。
Moreover, our record-setting third quarter performance, together with our fourth quarter expectations, reinforce our confidence that we will deliver our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $2.1 billion, an organic improvement of $500 million or 31% over 2022. Through the disciplined execution of our strategic plan, we intend to continue driving responsible and profitable growth in 2023 and into the future.
此外,我們創紀錄的第三季業績以及第四季度的預期增強了我們的信心,即我們將實現全年調整後 EBITDA 指導中點 21 億美元,比 2022 年有機改進 5 億美元或 31%。在執行我們的策略計劃的過程中,我們打算在2023 年及未來繼續推動負責任的獲利成長。
The operator will now provide the required instructions, we will turn our attention to addressing your questions.
接線員現在將提供所需的說明,我們將專注於解決您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的凱瑟琳·湯普森。
Kathryn Ingram Thompson - Founding Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Kathryn Ingram Thompson - Founding Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Just following up on the value over volume is clearly is showing through with the pricing performance this quarter and throughout the year. But it can have an impact on relative market share because it's principally you're willing to give up some volume for secure pricing. So could you discuss how it's working, it speaks to what it means to relative market share and how it affects your business, not just only now but a bigger picture over the next several years?
本季和全年的定價表現顯然顯示了對價值與銷售的關注。但這可能會對相對市場份額產生影響,因為主要是您願意為了安全定價而放棄一些銷售。那麼您能否討論一下它是如何運作的,它對相對市場份額意味著什麼以及它如何影響您的業務,不僅是現在,而且是未來幾年的更大前景?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
You bet. Kathryn, thanks for the question. So several things. Can it affect degrees of tonnage going at the gate? Yes, it can. So if we're looking at the tonnage down this quarter versus the prior year quarter, probably a little bit less than half of that was due to value over volume. And by the way, we're perfectly okay with that. We've got depleting reserves. That said, on average, we've got 70 years of reserves at current extraction rate. So we've got a long-lived business. But we know the reserves are worth more in the ground tomorrow than they are today.
你打賭。凱瑟琳,謝謝你的提問。有幾件事。它會影響登機口的噸位嗎?是的,它可以。因此,如果我們看看本季與去年同期相比下降的噸位,可能其中不到一半是由於價值超過數量造成的。順便說一句,我們對此完全同意。我們的儲備正在耗盡。也就是說,以目前的開採速度,我們平均擁有 70 年的儲量。所以我們有一個長久的生意。但我們知道明天地下的儲量比今天更值錢。
And if we're looking at really where we're seeding some share on, it tends to be lower-margin products. In other words, things like base and fines. So part of what we're trying to do is, we're talking with our customers to make sure that they understand really twice a year is something that we're looking at on revisiting our pricing. The other thing that's important to keep in mind relative to aggregates, and this is different from some other functions as well. It doesn't have to be a 24/7 business.
如果我們真正著眼於在哪裡播種一些份額,它往往是利潤率較低的產品。換句話說,諸如基礎和罰款之類的事情。因此,我們正在努力做的一部分是,我們正在與客戶交談,以確保他們真正了解我們在重新審視定價時每年兩次的情況。與聚合相關的另一件事需要牢記,這也與其他一些函數不同。它不一定是 24/7 的業務。
In fact, in most of our locations, it's not and where you've got 24/7 businesses, incremental volume can give a high degree of operating leverage. That's just not something with which we're encumbered in our aggregates. So we shut down each evening and open up each morning, and that gives us an enormous amount of flexibility. And then probably most importantly, Kathryn, when the volume does come back, and by the way, it typically does. It typically comes back at higher pricing. So you can see the math. I mean the value-over-volume strategy works, it protects our reserves. It protects the longevity of our business.
事實上,在我們的大多數地點,情況並非如此,在您擁有 24/7 業務的地方,增量可以提供高度的營運槓桿。這並不是我們的總量所阻礙的事情。所以我們每天晚上關閉並每天早上開放,這給了我們巨大的靈活性。然後可能最重要的是,凱瑟琳,當音量確實恢復時,順便說一句,通常會恢復。它通常會以更高的價格回歸。所以你可以看到數學。我的意思是,價值超過數量的策略是有效的,它保護了我們的儲備。它保護我們業務的長久發展。
And it's something that we've been very clear with our team is important to us and part of what you can see in the numbers is that it's coming through. So I hope that's responsive, Kathryn. Thank you for the question.
我們已經向我們的團隊明確表示,這對我們很重要,您可以從數字中看到,它正在實現。所以我希望這能有所回應,凱瑟琳。感謝你的提問。
Kathryn Ingram Thompson - Founding Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Kathryn Ingram Thompson - Founding Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Yes. And just one quick follow-up with the sale of the California Cement asset, do you speak to the general state of your Texas Cement operations, are inventories relative to demand? Have you seen any changes just to kind of that business as you plan for next year.
是的。關於出售加州水泥資產的一個快速後續行動,您是否談論德州水泥業務的整體狀況,庫存與需求是否相關?您是否看到您明年計劃的業務類型發生了任何變化?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks for the question. As you know, when we went into cement in Texas, we said we view that as a strategic cement business. And in my prepared comments I said we sold a non-strategic asset in California. And we said strategic cement for us meant where we're an aggregates leader where the market is naturally vertically integrated, where we have a downstream business taking a significant portion of it in Texas, it's about 30%, and where it cannot be meaningfully interdicted by water.
謝謝你的提問。如您所知,當我們進入德克薩斯州的水泥業務時,我們表示我們將其視為戰略水泥業務。在我準備好的評論中,我說我們出售了加州的一項非戰略資產。我們說,對我們來說,戰略水泥意味著我們是骨料領導者,市場自然是垂直整合的,我們的下游業務在德克薩斯州佔據了很大一部分,大約為30%,並且不能被有意義地攔截通過水。
Our Texas Cement business is very solid. And part of the reason it's solid is it's Dallas-Fort Worth and it's in San Antonio. So it removed from the vicissitudes of imports largely. So what we're seeing in that marketplace and what you saw in the quarter is volumes were largely flat because we're broadly sold out. And we continue to largely sell what we're producing. And part of what we're anticipating and part of what we've announced is a $15 a ton price increase for cement effective January 1. So I think that -- those data points give you a good snapshot of where Texas Cement is today.
我們的德州水泥業務非常穩固。它之所以穩固的部分原因是它位於達拉斯-沃斯堡和聖安東尼奧。所以它很大程度上擺脫了進口的滄桑。因此,我們在該市場上看到的以及您在本季度看到的情況是,銷量基本上持平,因為我們普遍售罄。我們繼續大量銷售我們生產的產品。我們預計和宣布的部分內容是,自 1 月 1 日起,水泥價格每噸上漲 15 美元。所以我認為,這些數據點讓您對德克薩斯水泥公司今天的狀況有一個很好的了解。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens.
您的下一個問題來自特雷·格魯姆斯和史蒂芬斯。
Trey Grooms - MD & Analyst
Trey Grooms - MD & Analyst
So maybe sticking to the pricing theme here, particularly in aggregates. If you could maybe talk through your initial 2024 aggregates pricing outlook of low double digits growth that you've laid out and maybe unpack how much you have coming from carryover '23 midyear increases and how you're setting the stage for low double digits price improvement in '24?
因此,也許要堅持這裡的定價主題,尤其是整體定價主題。如果您可以談談您所製定的2024 年初步總體定價前景,即低兩位數增長,也許可以解開您從23 年中的結轉收益中獲得的收益,以及您如何為低兩位數價格奠定基礎24年有進步嗎?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Happy to Trey. Thanks for that. So we're thinking about the '24 guide similar to the way that we did the '23 guide. What I mean by that is the guide that we've given, I think this is more to stayed out immediately, does not include any midyears and again, just as we saw in '23, we think we're going to have midyears in '24. But right now, the guide that we've given does not assume that. So I think that's important.
特雷很高興。感謝那。因此,我們正在考慮 '24 指南,類似於我們製作 '23 指南的方式。我的意思是我們給出的指南,我認為這更多的是立即留在外面,不包括任何年中,並且再次,正如我們在23 年看到的那樣,我們認為我們將在23 年中看到年中'24。但現在,我們給的指引並沒有做出這樣的假設。所以我認為這很重要。
Secondly, as I indicated in the previous question, we think midyears are becoming more and more the norm with our customers, and we think the expectations have been set. The customer letters that have gone out indicate that pricing is largely effective from January 1 to June 30. So in the correspondence that has already gone people know that we're going to protect them through midyear. Now in fairness, there's a footnote to that. And the notable exception is California, where our pricing letters already include announced midyear so that our customers can plan for that in that marketplace. We've long talked about what we inherited when we bought the business in California, and we're trying to address that.
其次,正如我在上一個問題中指出的那樣,我們認為年中對我們的客戶來說越來越成為常態,我們認為期望已經確定。已發出的客戶信件表明,定價在 1 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日期間基本有效。因此,在已經發出的信件中,人們知道我們將在年中保護他們。公平地說,有一個腳註。值得注意的例外是加利福尼亞州,我們的定價信中已經包括了年中公佈的信息,以便我們的客戶可以在該市場上進行規劃。我們長期以來一直在談論我們在購買加州的業務時繼承了什麼,並且我們正在努力解決這個問題。
Just to be clear, California totaled 2024 increases. Right now looked like that's going to be about $4 a ton across all products and markets as we continue to implement that strategy, in particular, in what's a relatively new marketplace for Martin Marietta. Now to your point, if we're thinking about the way carryovers are going to work, carryovers next year are probably going to be in the low single digits, so a little bit lower than they were this year.
需要明確的是,加州 2024 年的增幅總計。目前看來,隨著我們繼續實施這項策略,所有產品和市場的價格約為每噸 4 美元,特別是在 Martin Marietta 相對較新的市場中。現在就你的觀點而言,如果我們考慮結轉的運作方式,那麼明年的結轉可能會處於較低的個位數,因此比今年略低一些。
But again, we've got a lot of confidence in what we think we will come out with on January 1. And then again, if we have something that even begins to replicate what we saw in midyear next year, and frankly, there's probably some upside to that, Trey. So I think that gives you a good build on the way that we see that working in 2024 based off exit rates in 2023.
但同樣,我們對 1 月 1 日推出的產品充滿信心。話又說回來,如果我們有一些東西甚至開始複製我們在明年年中看到的東西,坦率地說,可能會有這有一些好處,特雷。因此,我認為這為您提供了一個良好的基礎,我們認為 2024 年的工作是基於 2023 年的退出率。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Stanley Elliott with Stifel.
您的下一個問題來自 Stanley Elliott 和 Stifel。
Stanley Stoker Elliott - VP & Analyst
Stanley Stoker Elliott - VP & Analyst
Congratulations. Can you guys talk about what you guys are seeing on the M&A front? I mean, historically, you've done a nice job strategically expanding the footprint. Leverage the [1.8x] free cash flow cement sale is even better by year-end. What is the M&A market looking like these days?
恭喜。你們能談談你們在併購方面看到的情況嗎?我的意思是,從歷史上看,你們在策略上擴大足跡方面做得很好。到年底,水泥銷售的 [1.8 倍] 自由現金流甚至會更好。如今的併購市場是什麼樣的?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Stanley, thanks for the question and for the comments on the quarter. The M&A market is actually looking increasingly attractive. The level of dialogue has ramped up in the second half of this year. From my perspective, that wasn't a tremendous surprise. As you know, 2021 was a big year for M&A for us. And part of what we've been doing since then is a lot of what you saw in today's announcement relative to the sale of Tehachapi, making sure we're getting our pricing right in different markets, making sure we're getting our hands around the operations.
史丹利,感謝您的提問和對本季的評論。併購市場實際上看起來越來越有吸引力。今年下半年,對話水準有所提升。從我的角度來看,這並不是一個巨大的驚喜。如您所知,2021 年對我們來說是併購大年。從那時起,我們一直在做的部分工作就是您在今天的公告中看到的與出售 Tehachapi 相關的許多內容,確保我們在不同的市場上獲得正確的定價,確保我們能夠掌控一切的操作。
And now as we sit here today, several things are apparent. Number one, we're looking at a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.8x. So that's below our targeted range. Two, you can see from the financials, what the cash flow in this organization looks like that can clearly help fuel and will fuel some aggregates led -- frankly, from our perspective, pure aggregate transactions. And then two or three, when we had proceeds that have just come in from Tehachapi, it puts us in a very attractive place. Do I think we'll have anything to announce here in the rest of this year? Probably not. Do I hope that we'll have some things that we can announce early next year? I think that we will.
當我們今天坐在這裡時,有幾件事是顯而易見的。第一,我們預期債務與 EBITDA 的比率為 1.8 倍。所以這低於我們的目標範圍。第二,你可以從財務數據中看到,這個組織的現金流是什麼樣的,這顯然可以幫助推動並將推動一些主導的總量——坦率地說,從我們的角度來看,純粹的總量交易。然後兩三個,當我們剛從特哈查皮獲得收益時,它使我們處於一個非常有吸引力的位置。我認為今年剩下的時間我們會在這裡宣布什麼嗎?可能不會。我是否希望我們能在明年初宣布一些事情?我想我們會的。
So more to come on that, Stanley. But again, we like financially where we're sitting. We like strategically where we're sitting. We like what we believe or what we know we can do from a regulatory perspective because we think that's a differentiator right now. So we believe that we can continue to give you price. We believe we can continue to give you really good cost control. And we believe we can keep giving you good, solid, attractive M&A. And we think that's a hattrick that very few can offer today.
史丹利,還有更多內容。但同樣,我們在財務上喜歡我們目前的處境。我們策略性地喜歡我們坐的地方。我們喜歡我們所相信的或我們知道從監管角度可以做的事情,因為我們認為這是目前的差異化因素。所以我們相信我們可以繼續給你方價格。我們相信我們可以繼續為您提供真正良好的成本控制。我們相信我們能夠繼續為您提供良好、可靠、有吸引力的併購。我們認為,這是當今很少人能提供的帽子戲法。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
您的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇(Jerry Revich)。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
Just pulling together what you shared in your preliminary comments, double-digit pricing growth, flat volumes, embedding, call it, high single-digit COGS per unit growth. I mean that essentially gets you to roughly $200 million of aggregate profit growth '24 versus '23, which is, I think, probably consistent with the consensus growth expectations for total company EBITDA, '24 versus '23. So I know you're not providing your full '24 outlook here, but it does feel like you're giving us the pieces to get the consensus EBITDA numbers with probably higher profitability and lower volumes than what folks expected on a bottom-up basis. Is that fair? And any other puts and takes that you would add?
只是將您在初步評論中分享的內容匯總起來,兩位數的定價增長、銷量持平、嵌入,稱之為每單位高個位數的銷售成本增長。我的意思是,與「23 年」相比,「24 年」的總利潤增長基本上約為2 億美元,我認為,這可能與「24 年與「23 年」相比,公司EBITDA 總額的普遍成長預期一致。所以我知道你並沒有在這裡提供完整的24 年展望,但感覺你確實在向我們提供獲得共識EBITDA 數據的材料,這些數字可能比人們自下而上的預期更高的盈利能力和更低的銷量。這樣公平嗎?您還想增加其他的看跌期權和看跌期權嗎?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, I think that's relatively fair. And if you think about it, Jerry, I think that's what we did in Q2, and I think that's what we've done in Q3. I mean I think part of what you're seeing is, the world can go through different degrees of economic turmoil, and this is a business that continues to be very steady, very durable in all forms of markets. So I don't disagree at all.
是的,我認為這相對公平。如果你想一想,傑瑞,我認為這就是我們在第二季度所做的,我認為這就是我們在第三季所做的。我的意思是,我認為你所看到的部分情況是,世界可能會經歷不同程度的經濟動盪,而這是一項在所有形式的市場中都保持非常穩定、非常持久的業務。所以我完全不同意。
I'll turn it over to Jim in just a moment so he can add if there are any particular things that he wants to make sure he calls out. But one of the things that I think is worth noting, Jerry, I mean did energy help us this quarter? Absolutely, it did. But I think part of what's so striking to me is even if we did not have the energy tailwind that we did this quarter, we would have set new records this quarter anyway. And I think it's so important because I know what you're looking for those puts and takes, I wanted to go ahead and address that one upfront because while in the quarter, that was powerful. It would have been a very powerful quarter even without that. Jim, anything you want to add?
我稍後會將其轉交給吉姆,以便他可以添加是否有任何他想要確保指出的特定事項。但我認為值得注意的一件事是,傑瑞,我的意思是能源在本季對我們有幫助嗎?絕對是的。但我認為,令我如此震驚的部分原因是,即使我們沒有本季的能源順風,我們無論如何都會在本季創下新紀錄。我認為這非常重要,因為我知道你在尋找這些看跌期權和看跌期權,我想繼續提前解決這個問題,因為在本季度,這很強大。即使沒有這一點,這也會是一個非常強大的季度。吉姆,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. No, it's just that the cost inflation continues to moderate slightly, still elevated compared to historical levels. But again, as we've demonstrated this year, we expect it to happen next year, pricing growth exceeds cost inflation. So we do expect margins to expand next year.
是的。不,只是成本通膨繼續小幅放緩,但與歷史水準相比仍然較高。但正如我們今年所證明的那樣,我們預計明年會發生這種情況,價格增長超過成本通膨。因此,我們確實預計明年的利潤率將會擴大。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
Super. And can I just follow-up the downstream businesses you folks are executing really well this year, how much of that has been because of a helpful move in diesel and liquid asphalt versus what's sustainable in the new portfolio, particularly on the ready-mix side post the divestitures?
極好的。我能否追蹤你們今年執行得非常好的下游業務,其中有多少是因為柴油和液體瀝青方面的有益舉措,以及新投資組合中的可持續發展,特別是在預拌粉方面發布資產剝離?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, Jerry, thanks for the question. I would say several things. One, if you think about our ready-mix business, it's almost uniquely in Texas and Arizona. And those are 2 very good markets. And one reason that they're good is, look, you're in New York, if you look at your window, you're going to see asphalt streets and when you get to the bridges, you'll have concrete bridges. If you're in Texas, you're writing on concrete roads and concrete bridges, and you're building things structurally with concrete as well.
是的,傑瑞,謝謝你的提問。我想說幾件事。第一,如果您考慮我們的預拌粉業務,您會發現它在德克薩斯州和亞利桑那州幾乎是獨一無二的。這是兩個非常好的市場。它們好的原因之一是,看,你在紐約,如果你看窗戶,你會看到瀝青街道,當你到達橋樑時,你會看到混凝土橋樑。如果你在德克薩斯州,你會在混凝土道路和混凝土橋樑上寫作,並且也會用混凝土建造一些東西。
So those markets tend to be more durable from a supply perspective because again, you've got that really noncyclical or often countercyclical infrastructure market that will place some meaningfully in, in our ready-mix business. And clearly, ASP was up 20% in ready-mix. That helped a lot but frankly, volume was up very modestly. And again, Texas is 80% of our volume in ready-mix.
因此,從供應角度來看,這些市場往往更持久,因為同樣,你擁有真正的非週期性或通常反週期性的基礎設施市場,這將在我們的預拌業務中發揮一些有意義的作用。顯然,預拌產品的 ASP 上漲了 20%。這很有幫助,但坦白說,成交量的成長非常有限。再說一次,德州占我們預拌粉產量的 80%。
Now alternatively, if you go to [HMA] give you a sense of if that's going to be full year probably about 9 million tons. So it's a fairly notable business. Now practically speaking, it's in 3 places. It's in Minnesota, it's up and down the Rocky Mountains and it's in California. And what we saw there was ASP was up 6.7% because liquid wasn't moving as much. But the fact was Q3 was an all-time record of almost 3.9 million tons for us in asphalt. And keep in mind, asphalt's going to be about 95% crushed down. So from our perspective, that's a very attractive business, particularly in Minnesota, where as you recall, Jerry, it's largely an FOB business. So it's truly a materials business for us there. And of that 9 million tons, Minnesota is going to be a little bit over 3 million of it. So at least those are the quick puts and takes that we've got on that. Jim, anything you want to add on that?
現在,如果你去[HMA],你會知道全年的產量可能約為 900 萬噸。所以這是一項相當值得注意的業務。現在實際上來說,它在三個地方。它在明尼蘇達州,在落基山脈上下,在加利福尼亞州。我們看到平均售價上漲了 6.7%,因為液體流動性不那麼明顯。但事實是,第三季我們的瀝青產量創下了近 390 萬噸的歷史記錄。請記住,大約 95% 的瀝青將被壓碎。因此,從我們的角度來看,這是一項非常有吸引力的業務,特別是在明尼蘇達州,傑瑞,你還記得,這主要是一項離岸業務。所以這對我們來說確實是一個材料業務。在這 900 萬噸中,明尼蘇達州將略高於 300 萬噸。所以至少這些是我們對此的快速看法。吉姆,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. I mean obviously, the bitumen pricing costs did help the asphalt and paving business improve margins. It wasn't wholly due to that, of course. But on the ready-mix side, I would say, was very, very little additive from the lower energy costs. So hopefully, that answers the question, too, just rounding out what Ward provided.
是的。我的意思顯然是,瀝青定價成本確實幫助瀝青和鋪路業務提高了利潤。當然,這並不完全是因為這個。但我想說,在預混料方面,由於能源成本較低,添加劑非常非常少。希望這也能回答這個問題,完善沃德提供的內容。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.
您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。
Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst
Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst
Ward, you talked about some softness in [ags] in the quarter in the Southwest and the Midwest, if I heard that right. And I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that. Was that weather driven or maybe a specific end market. Just wondering if there's any carryover into 4Q or potential [reads] into '24.
沃德,如果我沒聽錯的話,您談到了西南部和中西部地區 [ags] 的一些疲軟情況。我只是想知道你是否可以多談談這一點。是天氣原因還是特定的終端市場。只是想知道是否有任何結轉到第四季度或潛在的[讀]到'24。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks for the question. We had a couple of things. One, in the Southwest, frankly, you had a lot of heat and the heat slowed some things down, and you also had some timing relative to the large energy projects as well. So I see a lot of that being pushed off to the right. I mean, clearly and it's not just the Southwest or Midwest issue. There is some degrees of softening relative to warehousing and data centers. I mean that's not a surprise. We anticipated that. But what we are seeing is a nice renaissance relative to manufacturing and then the timing of energy. Energy is coming. Energy is not one of those issues that we have any concerns about. It's just relative to pace.
謝謝你的提問。我們有幾件事。第一,坦白說,在西南部,熱量很高,熱量減緩了一些事情的發展,而且大型能源項目也有一些時機。所以我看到很多東西都被推到右邊了。我的意思是,顯然這不僅僅是西南或中西部的問題。相對於倉儲和資料中心,存在一定程度的軟化。我的意思是這並不奇怪。我們預料到了這一點。但我們看到的是製造業和能源時機的良好復興。能量來了。能源不是我們擔心的問題之一。這只是相對於節奏而言的。
So I think more than anything, we had degrees of timing and we had certain degrees of softness that, from my perspective, were broadly anticipated. And I think that's one of the reasons that when we were giving you our results at half year, part of what we indicated to you is we thought we would probably see a near-term nadir in volumes in the third quarter. So if we're looking at the way Q3 worked from our perspective, Anthony, honestly, no big surprises, including the way the pull-through came through and some -- obviously, some very attractive incrementals in the quarter.
因此,我認為最重要的是,我們有一定程度的時機,也有一定程度的軟弱,從我的角度來看,這是人們普遍預期的。我認為這就是當我們向您提供半年業績時的原因之一,我們向您表明的部分內容是我們認為第三季的銷售量可能會出現近期最低點。因此,如果我們從我們的角度看待第三季度的運作方式,安東尼,老實說,沒有什麼大的驚喜,包括拉動的方式以及一些——顯然,本季度一些非常有吸引力的增量。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies.
您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。
Philip H. Ng - Senior Research Analyst & Equity Analyst
Philip H. Ng - Senior Research Analyst & Equity Analyst
Congrats on a really strong quarter. And obviously, your price -- your value-over-volume approach is showing in your results. But I'm just curious, how much line of sight do you have on your aggregates pricing in 2024? How are your competitors behaving in this environment? Is that value-over-volume approach potentially a risk to your volumes? The reason why I ask is because one of your bigger competitors calling for perhaps weaker volumes than your flattish outlook. So I just want to understand how the competitive landscape is behaving on pricing?
恭喜這個季度的強勁表現。顯然,你的價格——你的價值與數量的方法正在你的結果中體現出來。但我只是好奇,您對 2024 年的整體定價有多少看法?您的競爭對手在這種環境中表現如何?這種價值超過銷售量的方法是否會對您的銷售量構成潛在風險?我之所以問這個問題,是因為您更大的競爭對手之一要求的銷量可能比您平淡的前景要弱。所以我只想了解競爭格局在定價上的表現如何?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Well, the things that we stay focused on, Phil, is what can we control and how do we run our business, and we do that based on what our needs are. So we're very focused on Martin Marietta. We're focused on where operations are. We're focused on what our inventories look like. We're focused on what our reserves look like in the ground. And we're focused on what we feel like the market can bear relative to these products.
好吧,菲爾,我們關注的事情是我們可以控制什麼以及我們如何經營我們的業務,我們根據我們的需求來做到這一點。所以我們非常關注馬丁·瑪麗埃塔。我們專注於營運地點。我們關注的是我們的庫存狀況。我們關注的是地下儲量的情況。我們關注的是我們認為市場對這些產品的承受能力。
So from our perspective, those are really the unique drivers on that. As I indicated before, if you're looking at volumes for the quarter where our volumes down a little bit more than others, yes, probably so, are we okay with that? You bet. Do I feel like that's probably going to find more degrees of equilibrium going forward? I think it probably will. At the same time, if I'm looking at the geographies in which we tend to be focused, let's face it, we're talking about Texas that's going to be awfully good. I mean we're looking at the [TxDOT] budget for FY '24, that exceeds $18.5 billion. I mean, that's just a massive budget in Colorado. They recently passed a $5.3 billion 10-year infrastructure bill that's going to be massive in that state here in North Carolina, and it was something that I'm proud to have been part of.
因此,從我們的角度來看,這些確實是獨特的驅動因素。正如我之前指出的,如果您查看本季度的銷量,我們的銷量比其他季度下降更多,是的,可能是這樣,我們可以接受嗎?你打賭。我覺得這可能會在未來找到更多程度的平衡嗎?我想可能會的。同時,如果我看看我們傾向於關注的地區,讓我們面對現實吧,我們正在談論的德克薩斯州將會非常好。我的意思是,我們正在研究 24 財年的 [TxDOT] 預算,該預算超過 185 億美元。我的意思是,這對科羅拉多州來說是一筆巨額預算。他們最近通過了一項 53 億美元的 10 年期基礎設施法案,這對北卡羅來納州來說將是一筆巨額資金,我很自豪能夠參與其中。
We structurally changed the way that we're paying for infrastructure here. Now we're using a degree of sales taxes. And in FY '24, it's going to ramp up to 4% here in North Carolina because North Carolina recognized they needed to increase their spending by over $7 billion over the next decade. But even separate -- distinct from that, if we're looking in Florida right now, Florida is looking at a $17.2 billion budget for FY '24 and that's an all-time record. And I feel like I've said for probably the last 6 or 7 years that every year is an all-time record for transportation in Florida, largely because it has been.
我們從結構上改變了這裡基礎設施的支付方式。現在我們正在使用一定程度的銷售稅。在 24 財年,北卡羅來納州的支出將上升至 4%,因為北卡羅來納州意識到他們需要在未來十年內增加超過 70 億美元的支出。但即使分開來看,如果我們現在看佛羅裡達州,佛羅裡達州的 24 財年預算將達到 172 億美元,這也是歷史記錄。我覺得我可能在過去的六、七年裡一直在說,佛羅裡達州的交通每年都創下歷史紀錄,很大程度上是因為事實確實如此。
And in California, where we brought that new business, the Caltrans budget is $20.5 billion next year. Now to give you a sense of it, that's a 5.5% or 5.6% year-over-year increase with $12.1 billion designated for highway and bridge capital spending. So as we're thinking about what that public funding looks like and we're coming back and looking at what's happening industrially in places like Atlanta, what's going on in South Georgia literally just yesterday, Toyota announced they're adding $8 billion to what is already a large battery plant that's underway in Randolph County that's just downside of Greensboro.
在我們帶來新業務的加州,加州交通局明年的預算為 205 億美元。現在讓您感受一下,公路和橋樑資本支出指定為 121 億美元,年增 5.5% 或 5.6%。因此,當我們思考公共資金是什麼樣子時,我們會回過頭來看看亞特蘭大等地的工業狀況,以及南喬治亞州發生的情況,就在昨天,豐田宣布他們將增加 80 億美元的資金蘭道夫縣內已經有一座大型電池廠正在建設中,該縣位於格林斯博羅的下游。
These are the types of things that we're seeing in our markets, both in public and heavy nonres that gives us a lot of confidence around the way that we think volumes will work next year. And the fact is with the footprint that we have, I don't have any doubt that we're going to get our fair share of that business. I just want to make sure that we're doing for what we feel like is fair value for that business.
這些是我們在市場上看到的事情類型,無論是在公開市場還是在大型非市場中,這讓我們對明年的銷售成長充滿信心。事實上,憑藉我們所擁有的足跡,我毫不懷疑我們將在該業務中獲得公平的份額。我只是想確保我們所做的事情是為了我們認為對該業務具有公平價值的事情。
Philip H. Ng - Senior Research Analyst & Equity Analyst
Philip H. Ng - Senior Research Analyst & Equity Analyst
Super. And Ward, you mentioned maybe some of the weakness recently is tied to some of these bigger projects, whether it's energy mega products getting pushed out. Can you give us a little perspective when you see that kind of ramping up? Is that early next year, middle part of next year? And then on the public infrastructure side, we could all appreciate there's a lot of money coming. How do you kind of see that ramping up and building into 2024?
極好的。沃德,你提到最近的一些弱點可能與一些較大的項目有關,無論是能源大型產品被淘汰。當您看到這種增長時,您能給我們一些看法嗎?是明年初、年中嗎?然後在公共基礎設施方面,我們都可以意識到有大量資金即將到來。您如何看待這種趨勢在 2024 年的加速和發展?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, Phil, those are great questions. I think on the public infrastructure side, we're still where we were. We said we thought we would start to see that building in for and then build into '24 -- when I say 4, I mean Q4 of this year. And that was part of what led us to the commentary around the fact that we thought we'd probably see this type of dip in Q3.
是的,菲爾,這些都是很好的問題。我認為在公共基礎設施方面,我們仍然處於原來的狀態。我們說過,我們認為我們會開始看到這一點,然後是 24 年——當我說 4 時,我指的是今年的第四季。這也是我們對第三季可能會出現這種下滑這一事實進行評論的部分原因。
So again, very anticipated. If we're looking, for example, at the large LNG projects, part of what we're seeing right now is several projects that are already underway. Golden Pass is underway, Chevron Phillips has a large facility in Orange, Texas that's underway; Port Arthur LNG, at least portions of that are underway; Cheniere has a lot of this underway. But if we look going forward, I can think of at least 4 big jobs, and I think this gives you a sense from a timing perspective in Texas, that we're watching.
再說一遍,非常期待。例如,如果我們關注大型液化天然氣項目,我們現在看到的部分項目是已經在進行中的幾個項目。 Golden Pass 計畫正在進行中,雪佛蘭菲利普斯 (Chevron Phillips) 在德克薩斯州奧蘭治市的大型工廠正在建設中;亞瑟港液化天然氣項目,至少部分正在進行中; Cheniere 正在進行許多這樣的工作。但如果我們展望未來,我可以想到至少 4 個重要的工作,我認為這讓你從德克薩斯州的時機角度感覺到我們正在關注。
Cheniere has another one in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, Rio Grande LNG in Brownsville and Freeport LNG in Texas, all are looking at, we believe, 2024 start dates. We're actually anticipating some acceptance of materials, maybe as soon as this week on some of those projects. So it continues to be a live conversation. So if we think about it for the year, has timing been a little bit of a headwind on those, yes, it has.
Cheniere 在路易斯安那州的卡梅倫教區、布朗斯維爾的 Rio Grande LNG 和德克薩斯州的 Freeport LNG 都有另一座液化天然氣工廠,我們相信,所有這些都在考慮 2024 年開始日期。實際上,我們預計其中一些項目最快會在本週接受一些材料。所以這仍然是一場現場對話。因此,如果我們考慮今年的情況,時機是否對這些方面有點不利,是的,確實如此。
Do we think they're going away? Absolutely not. And part of what we're seeing, and frankly, in degrees this is helpful. You've got degrees of material tightness in some of those markets, and that continues to underscore at least the notion of the overall economy in Texas today. So I hope that gives you a snapshot at least on some of the heavy (inaudible).
我們認為他們會消失嗎?絕對不。坦白說,我們所看到的部分內容在某種程度上是有幫助的。其中一些市場存在一定程度的物質緊張,這至少繼續強調了當今德州整體經濟的概念。所以我希望這至少能給你一些重的快照(聽不清楚)。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
I want to follow up on one would just appreciate that...
我想跟進一個,我會很感激......
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Timna, I'm sorry to interrupt you. We're having a hard time hearing you. Can you lean a little bit more, please?
提姆納,很抱歉打擾你。我們很難聽到你的聲音。請你再傾斜一點好嗎?
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Yes. Is that better?
是的。那個更好嗎?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, ma'am, it is. Thank you.
是的,女士,確實如此。謝謝。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Okay. Sorry about that. So, Ward, I appreciate the commentary on big projects and starting up in 2024. We have had some delays and cost overruns. So doesn't that affecting your geographies perhaps as much? Or are you budgeting for that as well?
好的。對於那個很抱歉。所以,Ward,我很欣賞對大型專案和 2024 年啟動的評論。我們遇到了一些延誤和成本超支。那麼,這對您的地理位置的影響是否也同樣大呢?或者你也在為此做預算嗎?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
I don't think they're affecting, number one, our geographies that much. And two, to the extent that inflation or varying degrees of it continues to go through, frankly, if we can keep up with that or stay ahead of, Timna, it's actually been an ally to our business, not an enemy to our business. So I do think if we had a strikingly different geographic profile than we have, I would probably feel differently about it than I do.
第一,我認為它們對我們的地理位置影響不大。第二,就通貨膨脹或不同程度的通貨膨脹繼續發生而言,坦率地說,如果我們能夠跟上通貨膨脹或保持領先地位,蒂姆納,它實際上是我們業務的盟友,而不是我們業務的敵人。因此,我確實認為,如果我們的地理概況與我們截然不同,我的感受可能會有所不同。
But if we go back to that conversation I was having just a little while ago relative to our leading states and the degree of both public and private activity that we're seeing in Texas and Colorado and the Carolinas and Georgia and Florida. Those are very powerful steady markets right now. And I'm even taken to by the continued resiliency in markets like Indiana and in Iowa as well. Iowa is a state that has been very steady all the way through cycles for us, including probably the single most steady market in which we participated during the Great Financial Crisis. So I just call that out because it's one of those states that doesn't come to mind immediately if you're in New York or Chicago or Dallas or Los Angeles thinking about this industry. But it's been one that for us that's been actually quite important and very durable.
但如果我們回到剛才的對話,我們會討論我們的主要州以及我們在德克薩斯州、科羅拉多州、卡羅來納州、喬治亞州和佛羅裡達州看到的公共和私人活動的程度。目前這些市場非常強大且穩定。我甚至被印第安納州和愛荷華州等市場的持續彈性所吸引。對我們來說,愛荷華州在整個週期中一直非常穩定,包括我們在金融危機期間參與的可能是最穩定的市場。所以我之所以這麼說,是因為如果你在紐約、芝加哥、達拉斯或洛杉磯考慮這個行業,你不會立即想到這個州之一。但這對我們來說實際上非常重要且非常持久。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Okay. Helpful. And then just on the commentary on M&A. I know in the past, you would have hoped to have some done by the end of this year now talking about next year. Is that just a timing issue? Or is there anything that you can share there?
好的。有幫助。然後是關於併購的評論。我知道在過去,你們希望在今年年底前完成一些工作,現在談論明年。這只是一個時間問題嗎?或是有什麼可以分享的嗎?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
It's more of a timing issue than anything else, Timna. Obviously, you know what the process looks like. You're going to have dialogue with a potential company you want to acquire, you'll go through a valuation process, you might go through a letters of intent, contracting, and then you also have regulatory processes that you have to go through. And none of that's easy, but our team is essentially very good at it, but we're going to be thoughtful as we do it.
蒂姆納,這更多的是一個時間問題。顯然,您知道該過程是什麼樣的。你將與你想要收購的潛在公司進行對話,你將經歷一個估值流程,你可能會經歷一份意向書、合同,然後你還必須經歷監管流程。這一切都不容易,但我們的團隊本質上非常擅長,但我們在做這件事時會深思熟慮。
So it's not the fact that you haven't seen more done is not indicative of anything other than it's just an ordinary process. Now part of what's been different, too, in fairness, we're typically not in the selling business. And we've been in the selling business for the last 1.5 years more than we ordinarily would be. And you've seen what we've done relative to the Redding plant in Northern California, the Tehachapi plant in Southern California, and even relative to our ready-mix business in Colorado.
因此,您沒有看到更多完成的事實並不代表任何其他事情,而只是一個普通的過程。公平地說,現在也有部分不同,我們通常不從事銷售業務。在過去 1.5 年裡,我們從事銷售業務的時間比平常多了 1.5 年。您已經看到了我們在北加州雷丁工廠、南加州特哈查皮工廠、甚至科羅拉多州預拌粉業務所做的工作。
I mean if you think back to it, between Stockton, Redding, Tehachapi and our Colorado business that we sold, that's over $1 billion worth of divestitures. And that's not ordinary for us. But again, we talk about the fact that it's an aggregates-led business. And when we talk about cement, we talk about a strategic cement business. So -- some years -- most years we're going to be busier buying than selling. The last 1.5 years, we've actually had more on the sell side than on the buy side for all the right reasons. Thank you, Timna.
我的意思是,如果你回想一下,斯托克頓、雷丁、特哈查皮和我們出售的科羅拉多州業務之間的資產剝離價值超過 10 億美元。這對我們來說並不平常。但我們再次討論這樣一個事實:這是一個以聚合為主導的業務。當我們談論水泥時,我們談論的是戰略水泥業務。所以,有些年,大多數年,我們會更忙於購買而不是出售。在過去的 1.5 年裡,出於各種正確的原因,我們的賣方實際上比買方多。謝謝你,蒂姆納。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James.
您的下一個問題來自泰勒布朗和雷蒙德詹姆斯。
Patrick Tyler Brown - MD
Patrick Tyler Brown - MD
I want to come back to cost a little bit. So it feels like costs are -- they're obviously remaining fairly sticky here. You mentioned a little bit of easing. So just specifically, where are you seeing some of that moderation? Are you seeing in labor, consumables, is maintenance starting to roll? Just a little bit of color there would be helpful.
我想回來花一點錢。所以感覺成本顯然在這裡仍然相當黏性。你提到了一點寬鬆。那麼具體來說,您在哪裡看到了這種節制?您是否看到勞動力、消耗品、維修工作開始進行?只要一點點顏色就會有幫助。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Sure. I'll tell you what I'll do, I'll turn it to Jim and ask him to come back and give you more granularity. If you think about overall cost, I mean, have we seen supplies go up mid-single digits? Yes. Have repairs gone up low double digits? Yes, and contract services as well. But Jim can give you a little bit more color on that.
當然。我會告訴你我會做什麼,我會把它交給吉姆並請他回來給你更多的細節。如果考慮到整體成本,我的意思是,我們是否看到供應量上漲了中位數?是的。維修費用是否漲了兩位數?是的,還有合約服務。但吉姆可以給你更多的色彩。
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. It's largely the same story as before, which is a continuing slow moderation in cost inflation, still elevated versus historical levels, slowly coming back to normal from where it was very elevated, but it still remains elevated. I would say the most problematic areas are parts costs are still quite high. I don't see those coming down for a bit. But labor is behaving more and more normal as we go on. But otherwise, I'd say high single digits, mid- to high single digits is the right way to think about it for the rest of this year, getting a little bit better moderating next year. Again, I'm holding aside energy, which is very volatile and just holding that one aside because we don't know where that ends up going. Does that answer your question?
是的。情況與以前基本相同,即成本通膨持續緩慢放緩,與歷史水平相比仍處於較高水平,從非常高的水平緩慢恢復到正常水平,但仍處於較高水平。我想說最有問題的領域是零件成本仍然相當高。我看不到那些會下降一點。但隨著時間的推移,分娩的情況越來越正常。但除此之外,我想說高個位數、中高個位數是今年剩餘時間思考這個問題的正確方法,明年會得到更好的緩和。再說一次,我把能源放在一邊,它非常不穩定,只是把它放在一邊,因為我們不知道它最終會去哪裡。這是否回答你的問題?
Patrick Tyler Brown - MD
Patrick Tyler Brown - MD
Yes. No, that's very helpful. I appreciate it.
是的。不,這非常有幫助。我很感激。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. .
您的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。 。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
David, are you there?
大衛,你在嗎?
David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst
David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst
I'm here now. Sorry about that. I apologize. Congratulations on a great quarter. Yes, I just wanted to sort of revisit the slide in your deck on highway contract awards up 18%. And I get your thoughts in terms of what's changing in the lag from awards to strong demand and strong shipments?
我現在在這裡。對於那個很抱歉。我道歉。恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。是的,我只是想回顧一下你的幻燈片中關於高速公路合約獎勵增加 18% 的情況。我了解您對從獲獎到強勁需求和強勁出貨量的滯後發生了什麼變化的看法?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. No, I think it's been, David, from my perspective, a fairly predictable and I think in large measure, because we went for such an extended period of time without more money coming from the federal government in a meaningful way on that. So if you think about what happened, we had a decade plus of continuing resolutions. Then we had the FAST Act that didn't have more money, but it did have more time. And so now what's happened is you've had that very attractive double whammy of, hey, here comes more money, here comes more time. And you also had DOTs who had actually been building up their own budgets for about 15 years because they weren't getting more money and more time from the federal government.
是的。不,我認為,大衛,從我的角度來看,這是相當可預測的,我認為在很大程度上,因為我們在很長一段時間內沒有從聯邦政府以有意義的方式提供更多資金。因此,如果你想一想發生的事情,你會發現我們有十多年的持續解決方案。然後我們有了快速法案,它沒有更多的錢,但確實有更多的時間。所以現在發生的事情是,你遇到了非常有吸引力的雙重打擊,嘿,更多的錢來了,更多的時間來了。還有 DOT 實際上已經在大約 15 年裡建立了自己的預算,因為他們沒有從聯邦政府獲得更多的資金和更多的時間。
So I think what we're going to see, particularly in Martin Marietta states is, it's not so much driven by maintenance and repair. It's going to be more driven by bringing in new capacity. And that's important for a number of reasons. Number one, our states have had a lot of people move to them. So if we're simply looking at overall population trends, I mean, it's pretty eye-popping to think about the fact that Texas has led all the states and population gains over the past decade, adding 4 million people. If we're looking at Colorado, their population has grown 14.8% just since 2010. I mean North Carolina has been one of the fastest-growing states in the country. Georgia is going to move up to #8 in the country in population.
因此,我認為我們將看到,特別是在馬丁瑪麗埃塔州,它並不是由維護和維修所驅動的。引進新產能將更有動力。出於多種原因,這一點很重要。第一,我們的州有很多人搬到那裡。因此,如果我們只是看一下總體人口趨勢,我的意思是,考慮到德克薩斯州在過去十年中領先所有州,人口增加了 400 萬人,這一事實令人大跌眼鏡。如果我們看看科羅拉多州,自 2010 年以來,該州的人口增加了 14.8%。我的意思是,北卡羅來納州一直是美國人口成長最快的州之一。格魯吉亞的人口數量將上升至全國第八位。
So if you think about why these states need to add capacity as opposed to maintenance and repair. That's a big reason. And if you're thinking about what happens from a lag perspective on rather than putting new asphalt on top of old asphalt, but rather adding a new lane or building new roads, it frankly, takes a little bit longer. Now the punchline is, it ends up being considerably more aggregates intensive. So for us, it's like a big birthday. It's worth the wait sometimes. So we feel like good things are coming from this, but I think that's really driving that lag that we've seen the dollars are there.
因此,如果您考慮為什麼這些州需要增加容量而不是維護和維修。這是一個很大的原因。如果你從滯後的角度考慮會發生什麼,而不是在舊瀝青上舖新瀝青,而是添加新車道或建造新道路,坦白說,需要更長的時間。現在最重要的是,它最終會變得更加密集。所以對我們來說,這就像是個重要的生日。有時等待是值得的。所以我們覺得這會帶來好事,但我認為這確實導致了我們看到美元存在的滯後。
And you can see where they are. You can see what the state DOT budgets are. But again, I think it's those states, those budgets, those population inflows that are driving a different nature of construction. What we'll see in Charlotte, what we'll see in Atlanta, what we'll see in Dallas is going to be a very different story than what you'll see in New York or what you'll see in Chicago.
您可以看到它們在哪裡。您可以查看州交通部的預算是多少。但我再次認為,正是那些州、那些預算、那些人口流入正在推動不同性質的建設。我們將在夏洛特、亞特蘭大、達拉斯看到的將與您在紐約或芝加哥看到的完全不同。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.
您的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Michael Dudas。
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
You've been terrific observations about the markets and some of the puts and takes heading into end of this year 2024. Just wondering, as you look at the residential side of the business in your important states, it seems -- we're at a -- is that the flywheel that could impact positively expectations on volume given it seems like we're at a bottom or in this kind of longer base bottom given the affordability issues. Is that kind of where the help could come if volumes could get better? And is that a market that you'd be able to take advantage of, given your positioning in your -- certainly your backlog and your ability to serve?
您對市場以及 2024 年底的一些看跌期權和看跌期權進行了出色的觀察。只是想知道,當您查看重要州的住宅業務時,我們似乎正處於a - 飛輪可能會對成交量預期產生積極影響,因為考慮到負擔能力問題,我們似乎處於底部或處於這種較長的底部底部。如果銷售量能夠改善,這是否是一種可以提供幫助的地方?考慮到您在積壓訂單和服務能力方面的定位,您是否能夠利用這個市場?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. Look, I think the answer, Michael, is yes and yes to all of the above. It's interesting because you've got 2 issues relative to housing in the United States today. We've talked about one of them, and that is affordability and clearly seeing mortgage rates move to 23-year highs drive some of that. The other issue that doesn't get the airtime that it probably should, but it does in our states is availability. And that's a big issue today.
是的。聽著,邁克爾,我認為答案是肯定的,對上述所有問題都是肯定的。這很有趣,因為今天有兩個與美國住房相關的問題。我們已經討論過其中之一,那就是負擔能力,顯然抵押貸款利率升至 23 年來的高點是其中的一部分推動因素。另一個問題是,它沒有得到應有的播放時間,但在我們的州得到了播放時間,那就是可用性。這是今天的一個大問題。
And single-family housing in the U.S. is structurally underbuilt. I mean it's a practical matter, it ought to be trending comfortably over 1 million starts a year, at least as we drill it down to the markets in which most of our business is because, again, we're back to those population trends that I mentioned in the dialogue with David MacGregor just a few minutes ago. If you come to Raleigh, your biggest issue is can you find a house? Same issue in Charlotte, Same issue in Atlanta, in varying degrees the same issues in Dallas Fort Worth and in Colorado today. So to the extent that there could be some upside there, could it be single-family housing driven, I think so. And for example, several things are happening. Our homebuilders looking at having their own mortgage companies within homebuilding companies, they are. Are they doing that because they want to keep building, they do. Do they want to keep building because they know the market is there. Absolutely.
美國的單戶住宅結構性建設不足。我的意思是,這是一個實際問題,它的趨勢應該是每年超過 100 萬個啟動,至少當我們深入到我們大部分業務所在的市場時,因為我們又回到了那些人口趨勢,我在幾分鐘前與大衛·麥格雷戈的對話中提到。如果你來到羅利,你最大的問題是能找到房子嗎?夏洛特的同樣問題,亞特蘭大的同樣問題,今天達拉斯沃斯堡和科羅拉多州的同樣問題在不同程度上相同。因此,就可能有一些好處而言,我認為是單戶住房驅動的。例如,有幾件事正在發生。我們的住宅建築商希望在住宅建築公司內擁有自己的抵押貸款公司,而他們確實如此。他們這樣做是因為他們想繼續建造嗎?他們確實這麼做了。他們是否想繼續建設,因為他們知道市場就在那裡。絕對地。
And in some instances, are they building and basically building to rent even in the near term because they recognize that they can do that. So I think your point around a swing factor on housing is important. And I think it's relevant to say keep in mind, single-family housing is 2 to 3x more aggregates-intensive than is multifamily. So if you're watching housing look, is it nice to see multifamily go? Yes, is it really nice to see single-family go? The answer is yes. But I think what we've just described is worth watching and could be a build in 2024. And I hope that helps, Michael.
在某些情況下,他們是否會在短期內建造並基本上建造出租,因為他們認識到自己可以做到這一點。所以我認為你關於住房波動因素的觀點很重要。我認為值得一提的是,請記住,單戶住宅的整體密集度是多戶住宅的 2 到 3 倍。因此,如果您正在關注住房外觀,那麼看到多戶住宅消失是件好事嗎?是的,看到單戶家庭離開真的很高興嗎?答案是肯定的。但我認為我們剛剛描述的內容值得關注,並且可能會在 2024 年建立。邁克爾,我希望這會有所幫助。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Adam Thalhimer with Thomas Davis -- Thompson Davis.
你的下一個問題來自亞當·塔爾希默和托馬斯·戴維斯——湯普森·戴維斯。
Adam Robert Thalhimer - Director of Research & Partner
Adam Robert Thalhimer - Director of Research & Partner
Great quarter. Two quick questions, getting late in the call. Two quick questions. One, where do you want us for Q4 because the range is pretty wide. And I'm just curious if we wanted to bake in an early onset to winter, where would that put us? And then the second question is, do you ever see yourself recreating what you've built in Texas and other geographies?
很棒的季度。兩個簡單的問題,電話遲到了。兩個簡單的問題。第一,您希望我們第四季的表現如何,因為範圍相當廣泛。我只是很好奇,如果我們想在冬天來臨之際提前烘焙,那我們該怎麼辦?第二個問題是,您是否曾想過重建自己在德克薩斯州和其他地區建造的東西?
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Well, that's 2 big questions for a guy late in the call today, Adam. A couple of things. I'll take the second part of that. I'll leave the first part to Jim. Texas is a tremendous market. And when we bought TXI and when we've done some of the moves that we've made in Texas since then, frankly, we thought it was going to be that kind of a market. But at the same time, we're in some other markets today that are enormously attractive.
嗯,對於今天晚些時候參加電話會議的人來說,這是兩個大問題,亞當。有幾件事。我將討論第二部分。我將把第一部分留給吉姆。德克薩斯州是一個巨大的市場。當我們購買 TXI 以及此後我們在德克薩斯州採取的一些舉措時,坦率地說,我們認為這將是一個這樣的市場。但同時,我們今天所處的其他一些市場也極具吸引力。
Do we think we can do some very great things in California? Yes, I think we can. Can we continue to grow our business in places like Florida and still in Texas and in Tennessee and others. The short answer is yes. But one thing I think is so important for me to say, Adam, is you should expect us to continue to be an aggregates-led company. And I think that part of what is so evident in these numbers is, again, how durable that is.
我們認為我們可以在加州做一些非常偉大的事情嗎?是的,我想我們可以。我們能否繼續在佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州、田納西州等地發展我們的業務?簡短的回答是肯定的。但亞當,我認為對我來說非常重要的一件事是,你應該期望我們繼續成為一家以聚合為主導的公司。我認為這些數字中最明顯的部分是,它的持久性。
Now with respect to Q4, I'll pivot over to Jim, and he can talk to you a little bit more about how we see some puts and takes on that. But frankly, a lot of it is going to be driven by when does winter show up in different parts of our business. So Jim?
現在關於第四季度,我將轉向吉姆,他可以和你多談談我們如何看待一些看跌期權和接受期權。但坦白說,這很大程度上取決於我們業務的不同部分何時出現冬季。那麼吉姆?
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
James A. J. Nickolas - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So Q4, I would say, look, generally speaking, look at the midpoint of whatever we put out, that sort of -- the best way to think about it. What could push it to the bottom end? Ward mentioned obviously, bad weather, rainy weather in Texas, early winter in the north parts of our footprint. And then, of course, there's cost timing and shifts. There's nothing fundamentally happening that's sort of troubling. The costs could shift from 1 quarter to the next, causing volatility. If those slipped into Q1 that would help Q4. If they don't, that would hurt Q4. So I think I'd just stick with the midpoint for now, Adam, and go with that.
是的。所以第四個問題,我想說,一般來說,看看我們發布的任何內容的中點,這是思考它的最佳方式。是什麼將其推向谷底?沃德顯然提到,惡劣的天氣,德州的陰雨天氣,在初冬的北部地區出現了我們的足跡。當然,還有成本時間和變動。根本上沒有發生什麼令人不安的事情。成本可能會從一個季度轉移到下一個季度,從而導致波動。如果這些進入第一季度,將對第四季度有所幫助。如果他們不這樣做,那就會傷害第四季。所以我想我現在就堅持中點,亞當,然後就這樣。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.
目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
C. Howard Nye - Chairman, CEO & President
Thank you again for joining today's earnings conference call. To conclude, our strong third quarter results underscore the resiliency and secular durability of our aggregates-led business model through various business cycles. Our focus remains on building the world's safest, most resilient and best-performing aggregates led public company for the benefit of our shareholders, customers, employees and other stakeholders.
再次感謝您參加今天的收益電話會議。總而言之,我們強勁的第三季業績凸顯了我們以總量為主導的業務模式在不同商業週期中的彈性和長期耐久性。我們的重點仍然是建立世界上最安全、最具彈性和表現最好的以聚合為主導的上市公司,以造福我們的股東、客戶、員工和其他利害關係人。
Thanks to the disciplined execution of SOAR and the fidelity of our teams to safety, commercial and operational excellence. Martin Marietta is poised to continue delivering sustainable growth and superior shareholder value in 2024 and beyond. We look forward to sharing our fourth quarter and full year '23 results with you in February. As always, we're available for any follow-up questions. Thank you for your time and continued support of Martin Marietta.
感謝 SOAR 的嚴格執行以及我們團隊對安全、商業和卓越營運的忠誠。 Martin Marietta 準備在 2024 年及以後繼續實現永續成長和卓越的股東價值。我們期待在 2 月與您分享我們的 23 年第四季和全年業績。像往常一樣,我們可以解答任何後續問題。感謝您的寶貴時間以及對馬丁瑪麗埃塔的持續支持。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。