Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Martin Marietta's fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website. I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Jacklyn Rooker, Martin Marietta's Vice President of Investor Relations. Jacklyn, you may begin.

Good morning. It's my pleasure to welcome you to Martin Marietta's fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. With me today are Ward Nye, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Petro. Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

As a reminder, today's discussion may include forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws. These statements relate to future events operating results or financial performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Martin Marietta undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as legally required, whether due to new information, future developments or otherwise.

For additional details, please refer to the legal disclaimers contained in today's earnings release and other public filings, which are available on both our own and the Securities and Exchange Commission's website. Supplemental information is available both during this webcast and in the Investors section of our website. It includes a summary of our financial results and trends with full year and fourth quarter bridges from continuing operations to consolidated results on Slides 5 and 6, respectively.

As a reminder, the company's Midlothian cement plant related cement terminals and Texas ready-mixed concrete operations are classified as assets held for sale as of December 31, 2025. Their associated financial results are reported as discontinued operations for all periods presented. Our full year 2026 guidance summary on Slide 7 reflects continuing operations unless otherwise noted. Definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure are provided in the appendix to the supplemental information in our SEC filings and on our website.

Ward and I will begin today's earnings call with a discussion of our fourth quarter operating performance, 2026 outlook and supporting market trends. Michael Petro will then review our full year financial results. capital allocation and 2026 guidance details, after which Ward will provide closing remarks. Please note that all comparisons are to the prior year's corresponding period. A question-and-answer session will follow.

Please limit your Q&A participation to one question.

I will now turn the call over to Ward.

Thank you Jacklyn. Good morning, and thank you for attending today's teleconference. 2025 was an outstanding year for Martin Marietta, marked by record financial, operational and safety performance. Our aggregates business delivered record profitability and meaningful margin expansion while our highly complementary specialties business achieved record revenues and gross profit, highlighting the strength and breadth of our portfolio. We delivered these results even as the private construction environment remained challenging with single-family housing and nonresidential square footage starts still well below their most recent post-COVID peaks.

These outcomes underscore the durability of our aggregates-led business model, reinforced by intentional portfolio shaping and our team's disciplined execution. In short, this is our Strategic Operating Analysis and Review or SOAR plan in action, thoughtful strategy, rigorous execution led by a high-performing team and a product portfolio engineered to outperform through macroeconomic samples. With that context, I'll briefly summarize the principal achievements of SOAR 2025. Over the 5-year period ended December 31, 2025, we delivered 208 basis point price cost spread, exceeding our 200 basis point SOAR 2025 target and achieved a compound annual growth rate of more than 13% in aggregates gross profit per ton.

From a capital allocation standpoint, we announced or executed approximately $16 billion portfolio-enhancing transactions, we invested $3.2 billion in sustaining and growth CapEx and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Of vital importance to our investors over the same time period, we delivered total shareholder returns of 126%, approximately 30 percentage points above the S&P 500 Index over the December 31, 2020, through December 31, 2025 period.

We also paid special attention to maintaining our strong balance sheet. More specifically, we concluded SOAR 2025 period with our leverage ratio within our target range of 2 to 2.5x and strong free cash flow. Accordingly, we began SOAR 2030 in an enviable position with the ability to responsibly invest in our business and the flexibility and desire to make timely and prudent acquisitions.

Indeed, by thoughtfully redeploying capital from cement and downstream asset divestitures into pure aggregates positions, we expanded our footprint coast to coast, increased the aggregates contribution percentage to consolidated gross profit and enhanced our margin profile, all nicely positioning Martin Marietta for durable and sustainable growth.

Before discussing our 2025 performance and 2026 outlook, I'll highlight some fourth quarter achievements, beginning with our core Aggregates business, which delivered record results across nearly every key metric. Year-over-year, aggregates revenues increased 8% to $1.2 billion. Gross profit rose 11% to $420 million. Gross profit per ton improved 9% to $8.59 and gross margin expanded 93 basis points to 34%. Our Specialties business also delivered record fourth quarter results, driven by solid organic momentum and contributions from Premier Magnesium.

Our full year results were a testament to the resilience of our portfolio and the opportunities ahead. Aggregates delivered another year of outstanding performance, delivering records across nearly every financial measure, including gross profit per ton of $8.45, representing a year over year increase of 12%.

Notably, our Specialties business also posted exceptional results, reinforcing the value of this highly complementary segment achieving record full year revenues and gross profit. I'm especially pleased to share that our strong financial performance was accompanied by record safe performance in our Heritage business as measured by total reportable incidents reflecting the depth of our world-class safety culture and operational discipline.

Looking ahead, our 2026 shipment guidance of 2% growth at the midpoint reflects a balanced macro environment in which we expect sustained infrastructure investment and accelerating momentum in data centers and energy to offset continued softness in private nonresidential and residential construction. In line with these assumptions, we're guiding to 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.49 billion, inclusive of contributions from discontinued operations.

Upon closing of the previously announced asset exchange with Quikrete will provide updated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026. With that outlook, we'll now turn to the end markets shaping these expectations. Infrastructure demand remains solid, driven by the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act or IIJA and robust DOT budgets in Martin Marietta states underpinning a multiyear pipeline of projects.

As of November 30, 2025, the American Road and Transportation Builders Association or ARTBA, reports that 71% of IIJA highway and bridge funds have been obligated. However, only 48% has been dispersed. The gap between obligations and disbursements reflects significant remaining reimbursements and an extended construction runway beyond this year with IIJA reimbursement is expected to peak in 2026. As enacted, the IIJA is scheduled to expire in September 2026. However, both congressional chambers have already begun shaping the next surface transportation bill.

The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure's fiscal year 2026 views and estimates affirmed bipartisan reauthorization intent ahead of the deadline, while federal leadership's focus on accelerated project delivery and funding stability reinforces the nation's commitment to sustained infrastructure investment.

Equally important, state and local governments continue to strengthen their transportation funding frameworks by adopting new revenue measures designed to address long-term infrastructure needs undertakings that continue to garner broad bipartisan support.

A notable example in our company's home state of North Carolina is in Mecklenburg County, where voters this past November approved a 1% local sales tax referendum, that referendum alone is expected to generate approximately $19.4 billion over the coming decades to fund transformative improvements to roadway infrastructure and public transit across the Charlotte metropolitan area.

Given broad bipartisan support within the Congress as well as the administration favoring our nation's infrastructure, we remain confident in the timely passage of a new long-term surface transportation bill. Heavy non-residential demand continues to be driven by accelerating growth in data centers and the corresponding need for power generation.

Spending on data center construction remains exceptionally healthy and continues trending upward with Goldman Sachs research estimating hyperscalers potentially deploying over $500 billion in capital in 2026, significantly increasing power demand and requiring new generation supported by an all of the above strategy.

Whether this solution is natural gas, onshore wind, grid scale storage or nuclear, nearly all pathways require the essential aggregates we provide positioning Martin Marietta at the center of this long-term power generation growth opportunity. In addition, we see meaningful acceleration in gulf liquefied natural gas or LNG development, driven by strong export fundamentals and advancing project pipelines. As momentum builds in 2026, Martin Marietta's unmatched rail distribution network positions us to supply these large-scale projects with efficiency and reliability.

Turning to residential construction. Affordability remains the primary near-term constraint. There's no question regarding the need for more housing as demand continues to outpace supply, particularly in key Martin Marietta states. Freddie Mac estimates the US requires approximately 4 million additional homes just to restore balance, underscoring a multiyear need for increased new single-family construction.

Given our purpose-built business footprint, in many of the nation's most dynamic and faster-growing regions, we're well positioned to capture a disproportionate share of the housing recovery and light nonresidential construction that we follow. Moreover, the President's recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jay Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve is likely to be a positive development for a lowering of interest rates.

I'll now turn the call over to Michael Petro to discuss our full year financial results, capital allocation and our 2026 guidance. Michael?

Thank you, Ward, and good morning, everyone. Starting first with the full year 2025 results. The continuing operations Building Materials business posted revenues of $5.7 billion, a 7% increase and generated a gross profit of $1.8 billion an increase of 13% year over year. Gross margin expanded 173 basis points to 31%, driven by strong aggregates performance that more than offset softness in our downstream businesses. As Ward noted, our core aggregates business delivered record performance in 2025. Revenues increased 11% to $5 billion, driven by 6.9% pricing growth and volume growth of 3.8%.

Gross profit increased 16% to $1.7 billion, and gross margin expanded 143 basis points to 34%. The as strong pricing and shipment growth more than offset higher freight depreciation and general inflationary impacts, resulting in a price cost spread of 239 basis points. Other Building Materials revenues decreased 8% to $992 million and gross profit decreased 18% to $98 million, primarily driven by the Minnesota asphalt business and the impact of the April 2025 California paving divestiture.

Our Specialties business delivered all-time records for revenues and gross profit of $441 million and $137 million, respectively. These outstanding results reflect strong organic performance, driven by pricing growth, increased shipments across all product lines, effective cost management and five months of contributions from Premier Magnesia following its July '25 closing.

Full year cash flow from operations increased 22% to a record of $1.8 billion, which we appropriately allocated across our long-standing priorities of targeted M&A, organic investments and returning cash to shareholders.

Consistent with that framework, in 2025, we deployed $812 million on business and land acquisitions, reinvested $680 million into our plants and equipment, and returned $647 million to shareholders, representing a total cash yield of approximately 1.7%. As a result, we ended the year with a consolidated net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3x and total liquidity of $1.2 billion, providing meaningful capacity to execute our M&A first growth strategy.

Turning now to 2026 guidance. For aggregates, we expect low double-digit gross profit growth at the midpoint, supported by low single-digit shipment growth, mid-single-digit pricing improvement and cost per ton generally in line with inflation. Importantly, we are comprehensively reviewing our quarry and terminal networks to better align production with prevailing demand that remains approximately 14% below 2022 levels.

While we expect these efforts to provide meaningful rationalization opportunities and operational efficiencies, our guidance reflects only the benefits from the pilot regions actions that were realized in 2025's fourth quarter and that will flow through the balance of 2026.

Turning now to other product lines. We expect high teens gross profit growth in specialties, inclusive of acquisition contributions, while gross profit from other building materials is expected to remain relatively flat. Taken together, these assumptions support our midpoint expectations of high single-digit growth in both revenues and adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations.

As Ward noted, upon closing the asset exchange with Quikrete, we will provide updated 2026 guidance reflecting the difference between the $250 million of adjusted EBITDA from discontinued operations and the expected adjusted EBITDA contribution from the acquired assets. As we've indicated previously, planned capital spending of $575 million represents a 29% year-over-year reduction.

This investment level is aligned with the business's ongoing needs and significantly increases free cash flow available for M&A and share repurchases.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Ward.

Thank you, Michael. 2025 capped another remarkable five-year chapter from Martin Marietta, delivering exceptional safety, operational and financial results while achieving all the SOAR 2025 goals we outlined during our February 2021 Investor Day.

We took decisive steps to streamline the portfolio, enhancing strategic focus on our core aggregates platform strengthened by a differentiated specialties business. . Building on this success, we launched SOAR 2030 at our Capital Markets Day, charting a clear path for continued growth and shareholder value creation.

If the operator now provides the required instructions, we'll turn our attention to addressing your questions.

(Operator Instructions) Kathryn Thompson, Thompson Research Group.

I have just a broad policy question, that's a two part. The first is obvious on IIJA expires at the end of September. Having recently spoken with TxDOT, we understand that they've modeled in multiple different scenarios addressing the new highway bill from funding increases to funding declines.

The first part of my question is, can you share your latest intelligence on where Congress is on the new highway bill and what funding levels are most likely? And the second part is how critical is federal funding now with states and local municipalities. You have markets like Charlotte County, Kinberg County, just passed significant incremental funding over the past several years. Is the highway bill as important as it used to be for state DOTs and for Martin Marietta?

Kathryn, it's nice to hear your voice, and thanks for the question. So I would say several things. One, the highway bill continues to be important. It doesn't have the same overarching importance that it did, let's call it, 15 or 20 years ago because as you said, municipalities and states have clearly picked up their game, and I think they intend to continue doing that. That said, recognizing it is important, I would say several things.

One, if we're looking at the bill structure today, I would say both the House and the Senate are intent on pursuing a five-year reauthorization of highway public transportation programs.

Number two, I think they're both pretty committed to not having some of the broader components that were in the last bill structure. And what I mean by that, Kathryn, is in a $1.2 trillion bill. $350 billion went to highways, bridges, roads and streets.

So I think we can anticipate a larger portion of that is going to highways, bridges, roads and streets this time. From my understanding, yes, and I've spoken to members of the Senate committee and the House Committee.

They're targeting spring for a release of the text. And what that means is I think that schedule gives us ample time to complete the action by September 30. So at this point, at least from what I'm hearing, all the discussion is relative to an on-time multiyear reauthorization.

I think one thing that's worth noting is even if they didn't get it done exactly on September 30, we can look at the past practices and what that makes it clear. is that we're either going to get a multiyear highway bill or an interim measure. And even the interim measure would have to continue funding at the record that I think is moderately over $72 billion for right now.

So I think that would be hugely attractive. But again, everything that I'm seeing is it's going to be on time. And at least what I've been told is I'm quoting, I won't be disciplined in when I see come out of that. So I'm going to take them at their word on that.

Now to your point though, what's going on at the local level. I did call out in my comments, what had happened, as you noted, in Mecklenburg County, which Charlotte is the County seat. That's North Carolina's largest cities, the largest city between Washington, D.C. and Atlanta.

What that meant, Kathryn is, they put $19 billion out there over a couple of decades, so they can continue to grow their infrastructure needs in and around Charlotte because Charlotte has the high-class problem that Raleigh Durham has and that Atlanta has and that Dallas-Fort Worth has and Denver has and the Tampa has and that so many Martin Marietta markets do, and that is population inflows are so significant.

And states have to pick up their game, which they've done. Municipalities have to pick up their game, which they've done. And notably, when those ballot measures are put out there, they pass in the high 80% of the time. So again, I think that underscores fly at the national level. We see this getting done on time because it does have broad bipartisan support.

So thank you for the question, Kathryn. I hope that helped.

It does.

Adam Thalhimer, Thompson Davis Company.

Ward, can you provide some clarification on the guidance? What's in and what's out -- I'm specifically curious about Minnesota, the acquisition there. And then finally, should we assume a slow start to the year, given challenging weather?

Adam, thanks for the question. I'll do my best to clarify things. I hope it's out there, but I know it's a lot to read. So I would say several things. One, if we start with consolidated adjusted EBITDA and the midpoint of really -- let's call it, $4 billion, $9 billion.

That is truly an all-in number relative to, in many respects, how we finished the year last year. So does it have our heritage aggregates and organic aggregates business in it? You bet. Doesn't have disc ops. In other words, the cement in North Texas and the concrete that goes with it, you bet. So that's how I would capture what's in the consolidated adjusted EBITDA.

Now if we go to adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations, this is when it's got a little bit of shimmy to it, and here's what I mean by that. It's got the organic business in that. And really, that's what it has solely and uniquely. So take out cement take out the ready mix that goes with cement and frankly, take out the Minnesota. So I think that comes back and answers your question.

Part of what we intend to do when we close Quikrete is come back and reset the table. And the resetting of the table will have the Quikrete assets in it. You will also have the Minnesota business in it, and then we will give you a nice clean picture of what we believe the balance of 2026 will look like. But again, I hope that answers your question directly, Adam.

Great. And then just maybe on the slow start to the year potential.

Well, you know what potentially is a good word because actually, I'll talk more about Q1 when we report. What I'll tell you is this, I was not disappointed in what I saw in January. And it would have been easy looking from the outside in and seeing a lot of cold weather and seeing places like Texas having a deep freeze and the Southeast having a deep freeze and thinking, boy, that's got to be a slow start. Actually I saw a really resilient performance in January, which I was heartened by. And part of what that led me to think, Adam, is I'm reflecting really on last year.

and the way that we gave you a guide to last year. As you recall, the words, I think I used almost 12 months ago today is I think we're giving you a nice measured guide, very thoughtful guide for the year. And you recall how the year played out last year. And I would like to see it play out that way again this year. And so far, I haven't seen anything in the early days that dissuade of that.

Trey Grooms, Stephens.

Just kind of sticking with the guidance here. Given what we've seen with contract awards in your markets and maybe what you're seeing from the field and hearing from your contractor customers maybe on both the public and prop side. Could you give us a little more color on how your end market assumptions and the mix there kind of built into your outlook for 1% to 3% volume growth this year? And then within that 1% to 3%, maybe where you see the most likely kind of swing factors within the range there?

We'll do, Trey, thanks for the question. I think that's a good one. Let me go through the big buckets and give you a snapshot of what I think that's going to look like. So if we start with infrastructure that if we look at it for last year, it was about 37% of our business. look, I see that up mid-single digits.

So I think that's going to be a good, steady story this year. I think that story could actually be better this year than we're guiding right now. Keep in mind, we've said 2026 should see those peak IIJA funds come in. So again, if that peaks the way that we think that's going to be important. But keep in mind, you still got 50% of the funds that have yet to flow. So '26 should be an attractive year, but frankly, so should '27. So I think that's really a big piece of it.

I think the other piece that we spoke of before, if we're looking at our top 10 states, and I think this is an important thing to keep in mind, we're looking at their overall DOT budgets up about 7% from the prior year. So again, if we're looking broadly across Martin Marietta and you know those top 10 states tend to matter disproportionately again, their budgets look very, very good. I spoke in one of the earlier questions about what we've seen at the local level relative to referendums.

A lot of those got passed last November, obviously, the one that we've spoken of in Mecklenburg County, which basically is Charlotte is an important one for us because that's a vital market to Martin Marietta. I mean that kind of takes me through at least the infrastructure piece of it. And I do think there's probably some modest upside there.

Non-res, if we back away from it, again, 35% of our business last year, it's interesting to me to look at it because if we're looking at total square footage starts, they're still 20% below the prior peak even with the holy trinity of data centers, energy and warehousing, all moving in the right direction.

But the thing that I'm taken by is what I'm seeing right now, demand for data centers simply remains really strong. I mean we talked about what's going on with Stargate in Abilene, we've talked about Google and their investments in South Carolina. Meta has recently reaffirmed their $65 billion CapEx investments in Louisiana. I mean, these are big numbers.

But then -- but I like our stories like this. I mean, Project J, which is a large data center that really just got underway in Laramie County, Wyoming in December. That's going to be an enormous project. And we've got the closest proximate quarry of size to that. So I think all that's going to be impressive for a while.

But what we're seeing is what you would have imagined. And I think this may supply more upside as well. What we're seeing in energy and its needs are pretty significant. So the U.S. power demand is expected to rise 25% by 2030.

And then these are all compared with 2023 levels. If we're saying from 2023 to 2050, it's going to have to go up by 80%. So again, if you're looking at something that can be a lever in this, that's certainly one of them. As we're thinking about data centers and we're thinking about energy, Texas, which is an important state for us, where we're the largest aggregates producer is clearly a leader in that. But importantly -- and Trey, you'll remember when we were talking about BC Sumner, 15 and -- 10 and 15 years ago as far as the nuclear plant in South Carolina.

Now you've got Brookfield Asset Management who's come in there basically in a public-private partnership with Westinghouse, and they're basically looking to build large-scale nuclear reactors to support the growing demand in that state and beyond.

The other thing that we're seeing, and frankly, this is overdue from my perspective, is we're seeing LNG projects coming back as well. So you're getting closer to the Gulf, Port Arthur LNG is starting to move. So again, do I think there's upside on data centers? Yes, I do. Do I think there's upside on energy?

I do. But here's the other piece of it that's very different than I would have speaking to you about last year at the same time. And that is what's going on with distribution and warehousing. So again, we continue to see in a number of our markets. Amazon is growing.

We've seen good examples of Walmart distribution centers coming in, Ross distribution centers. Dell Hays, which is the owner of Food Lion in our part of the world is building a nice distribution center as well. And we're seeing big pharma making nice moves, in Novo Nordisk, J&J, Eli Lilly.

So again, as I'm looking at public I've seen nice momentum and potential upside as I'm looking at heavy nonres, I'm seeing nice momentum, and I'm seeing upside. If I'm seeing places that frankly, will be relatively flat. I mean, that's where residential comes to the top of the pole, right? Look, you heard me say that I think we're likely to see declining interest rates. I think that's going to be helpful on res.

I think that's going to be helpful, most importantly, on single-family res. At the same time, you saw the latest starts. They're really not very heavy at all. But the need is acute. And I think one thing to watch is what's going to happen with adjustable mortgage rates?

And how popular do those become, again, even ahead of watching interest rates decline. So do I think there's upside in public? Yes. Do I think there's upside in data? Yes. And do I think housing is likely to be relatively flattish with likely upside moving into next year? Yes, I do. And I think as we think longer term, when you see that last turn really come to res, I think that really puts some accelerant to pricing as well.

So Trey, I'll try to take you through the three big end uses and try to give you the ups and downs in some of the lives.

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

This is (inaudible) on for Anthony. Just based on the guide you put out, it looks like the 250 basis points price cost spread guide is kind of still intact. I was hoping you could walk us through what you expect for your key cost buckets in 2026 like labor, raw materials, energy, maintenance or et cetera. But I guess also really, what gives you confidence that you think to keep costs down? Is it that you're seeing lower inflation or maybe there's some other levers you're pulling?

Thanks for the question. I would say several things. One, look, we're seeing inflation running, let's call it, 3.5%-ish. I mean if we think about the things that will be involved in that, clearly, labor is going to be a piece of that. we actually feel like supplies and some of those things will continue to move a bit.

But at the same time, we don't see a lot of significant tariff activity in our space because so much of what we're buying and our markets tend to be uniquely in the United States, all by themselves. If we're looking at the quarter itself, I would say several things were moving around in the quarter.

One, we just had a degree of higher external freight costs. And what I mean by that is we had increased yard activity. And so if we're just looking at the transfer activity to yard locations themselves, that actually took up costs in ways that, in many respects, are more optical than real.

And the other issues that we had in the quarter all by itself, we did have, as we're going out to California and some parts in the West and restructuring some of our business. we had some onetime inventory write-offs that will not recur. And so if we're looking at the overall cost environment, I think it's actually in a pretty good place. That said, as Michael commented in his regard -- in his remarks, we want to make sure that we're looking at all of our divisions and all of our districts through a really clear eye fashion to make sure that we're lining up costs with what the market demands are today. So keep in mind, since 2022, volumes have been flattish to certainly not up in any notable way since 2022.

He mentioned that we had a pilot project that we had gone through one division late last year. The results of that were really very significant and helpful and we're looking at that more broadly across the portfolio. So again, I hope that answers your question.

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

It's Jesse on for Phil. Just on the specialty side, it looks like, obviously, Premier has had a bit of a mix impact. Can you just talk about some of the initiatives you can kind of do to get the profitability back to kind of legacy levels there and kind of a time line associated with that?

Yes. No, what I would say on Premier are just specialties as a whole, Premier is a margin-dilutive acquisition to the specialties organic business. But what you're seeing in the guide for next year, the $160 million of gross profit that's the organic business that has run so well and so hard over the last 3 years. Again, we're taking a measured guide there. We're assuming that consolidates a bit.

So a lot of the contribution in gross profit growth coming into the specialty segment is coming from the 7 months of contribution from the Premier acquisition that wasn't in 2025.

And just in terms of cadence on specialties, there's really not a whole lot of seasonality in that business. So you can assume each quarter is roughly the same split for that $160 million of gross profit. But I think that margin level that's implied is a consistent margin level now for a full year with the pro forma business, including Premier.

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

Just wanted to ask, I guess, a two-part question. First, could you just comment on the kind of, I guess, quote to order conversion rates and how that has been evolving as you think about fourth quarter and really in the first couple of months here of the year, whether you're seeing any shifts of projects or the quoting to conversion to orders improving in any material way?

And then or you gave very good helpful color across all the kind of key end markets and the pockets where we might be seeing some potential for improvement. So I was just curious, could you size how much data centers is of your backlog or your orders today? And then also maybe comment on manufacturing, in particular, I think -- that's one area where we've been seeing -- on your slide, it's listed as more of a yellow or I guess, orange.

And then I think in the US census data, it's one of the pockets that seems to be actually seeing accelerating declines. I'm just curious what you're seeing on your side?

Angel, thanks for the question. I would say several things. One, obviously, part of what we're doing right now is using Precise IQ largely in the East. You'll see that rolled out across the company and pretty much in place by year. We think that's important because part of what we've seen as we've used Precise IQ is it does several things.

One, it clearly gives our sales team the ability to respond in a very quick, very agile, but very accurate way to our customers. The other thing that we've seen is our win rate utilizing that has ramped up pretty nicely. So I think answering your question directly, is the quoting and the yield looking attractive from where we sit right now? Yes. And do I think it's going to be more attractive as Precise IQ rolls out across the enterprise? I think you've got a double yes on that.

As we go to data centers and look at that tonnage, look, that tonnage is right now, frankly a few million tons a year. I mean -- and we're talking about a business that's going to be at least if we're going on last year's numbers, let's call it, close to $200 million, obviously, notably larger than that. when we come back with Quikrete. That said, it's growing at a very fast rate. I mean so it's growing at a multi-double-digit rate right now.

And we anticipate that that's likely to persist. And equally, if we go to some of the other nonres areas that I spoke to, we continue to see, at least in our markets, manufacturing moving in the right direction. I mean, that's not going to be an immediate switch that's going to go. But if we're looking at it overall, I think that's the trend that we're seeing. And Michael, anything you want to add to any of that?

Yes. I think just to give you some color on Q4, the categories that we call the 3s because they all represent about 3% of our overall shipments or data centers now distribution centers and warehouses, which is down from a peak of closer to 7% or 8% and manufacturing and power gen. Of those categories, data centers were growing at about a 60% clip. Warehouses themselves coming off the inflection point, we're growing at about 40%. So that just gives you a sense for those 2 categories that are 3% of our overall shipments, the growth rates.

And manufacturing, given some of what we're seeing in pharma that's taking over for some of the decline in large semiconductor and battery facilities. The rate of decline in Q4 was the lowest rate of decline for the year. So we're hopeful that manufacturing starts to inflect here in 2026 similar to what we saw in warehouses in 2025. Hope that helps, Angel.

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

There's been a lot of chatter out in the market about pricing. You talked a little bit about it, but can you just kind of give us your thoughts about the state of pricing as you see it? Are you seeing anything geographically dispersion wise, just any bigger picture thoughts about hitting that 5.5% ASP growth through 2030, which I think is what you laid out at the Analyst Day.

Tyler, thanks for the question. And I would say several things. One, no surprises from where I'm sitting. I mean I think everything that we talked about at the Capital Markets Day is pretty consistent with what we put in our documents today. If I look just at the quarter just ended, I mean, all divisions posted mid-single-digit price increases.

It was interesting in Q4 because actually we had a few project delays in and around, for example, Charlotte and Greensboro. And those are actually, from a pricing perspective, pretty attractive markets. So we actually saw volume growth in the East in modestly below the rest of the company. So that actually gives us an optical headwind if you think about what that means. And if you think about the guide, I mean, look at it in these terms, we're basically talking to 5-ish on price.

We're talking to 2-ish on volume, and that's exactly what Q4 looked like in Q4 was just a record. So as I think about taking that and really casting that forward. I don't see anything in that, that gives me degrees of pause. So again, I think we've got a nice rhythm and cadence on where we're going.

And the other piece that strike me relative to your question on pricing in particular, Tyler. If we go back to the conversation that I had relative to end users. So look, in first is looking good and may look a little better. Non-res is looking good and may look a little better, at least on the heavy side. And we said housing, not so much at least this year.

once that housing starts coming through, Tyler, I think you and I know that it will. And I think when it does, it's going to particularly shine in Martin Marietta markets simply because of the way we built this business. Again, I think pricing looking at the way that we talked about it last September and today, relative to 2026 looks very steady. And I think if we see private start to move the way that I think private is going to move, I think that's actually very helpful to pricing even going forward. So again, I hope that responded to your question, Tyler.

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital.

I just wanted to piggyback on the last question but ask it from a gross profit per ton perspective. I think you're guiding to 8% growth at the midpoint of guidance this year. I think relative to SOAR 2030, I think that was closer to go double digits. So just wondering if the variance there is on the volume side, is it related to housing coming back? And any thoughts on gross profit per ton and the level of conservatism in the guidance this year.

Yes. Happy to take that question. I think you're saying the implied gross profit per ton is around 9% versus double digits. What I would say is a gross profit dollars are at the midpoint, up 11%. And what Ward said is we were taking a measured approach to the guide in terms of not only probably volume, but the other place where we're feeling a bit measured is on the cost side.

So underlying inflation, as Ward mentioned, it was running at about 3.5%. Our implied COGS per ton guide is 3%, but that's only given about 50 bps of operating leverage to the 2% volume. So we would expect to have more operating leverage than that and to put it in perspective with some sensitivities, each 1% reduction in COGS per ton inflation holding everything else constant in our guide, so about another $35 million to add gross profit.

So if there's upside, it's likely on the COGS side as we continue to take some of the lessons learned from our pilot regions network optimization efforts and roll that out across the company. But that is not contemplated in our guide here in February.

Ivan Yi, Wolfe Research.

I just want to go back to the price cost you talked about -- can you just comment on that trajectory going forward. You price expected to be flat at plus 5% in '26, is the price/cost spread didn't narrow this year when can it reaccelerate?

You're welcome. Thank you for the question. Look, as Michael and I both said, I think we've taken a very measured view of what that's going to look like this year. I think what we're seeing -- what we talked about was seeing it more than that as we went through the SOAR 2030 period. So we didn't necessarily think we're going to come out of the gate at that level.

We think it's going to continue to build. And we believe, given the cost profile that we have and where I think we'll actually drive that. And what I believe is likely to happen to volumes over the coming years as private construction has a degree of recovery. We don't look at that price/cost spread that we discussed in September and have any concerns about that. We feel very confident in our ability to hit that.

And I think if we're doing what we're doing in this year and it builds into next year in the way that we think and have a highway of confidence that it will, Ivan, I'm not losing any sleep over what that's going to look like.

Keith Hughes, Truist Securities.

I just sit back to the IIJA. You had talked about temporary measures. I think you maybe continuing resolutions. We've seen a lot of those on these highway bills expiring. If we go down that path and we don't get a new plan, what is the continuing resolution due to your business, either positive or negative?

Keith, that's a good question. I don't think it does anything negative to the business at all because, again, if we ended up with a CR. It's going to continue funding at the record level of $72.1 billion. So it would continue basically at a record level. And again, as we discussed, as important as the highway billers, so is the state DOT posture.

So if we're looking at a very healthy stick DOT posture to set up 7% on average on our states as we head into the new year. And in a worst scenario, again, that I don't believe we're going to be confronted with that we end up with a CR, we just end up at the same level that we are. So if you go back to the notion that I said, look, I think there's upside in what we're going to see in public this year.

I think you're going to see another really strong year in public next year simply because you've still got 50% of the funds that need to work their way through. So again, I'm not looking at September 30 with any form of voting. That, that's going to be something that's going to be significant, pretty bad at all to our business. I think we'll have a new build. I think the new bill will have more highways, bridges, roads and streets.

I think it will be on time. And if we don't, I think the beat goes on.

I hear you. One of the things investors, I think the ones that have really studied us to get fearful of. There's not so much the spending fall off dramatically in '27. But the ARTBA projection shows falling infrastructure spending in '27. If you get a CR, would the market not be flat to up in '27 in that scenario?

I think if you got a CR, it would probably be relatively flat to modestly up again because you'd have the same degree of funding and you're going to have state DOTs picking up again. So I think the biggest piece of our business, as I said, there was not quite 40% of our business this year would continue to be ballast in the boat.

Brian Brophy, Stifel.

You referenced the network optimization initiative a few times I guess any color on the pilot that you referenced and how that unfolded. And any feedback on what this could mean for the cost profile or margin profile for the total business as it's fully rolled out through the enterprise? And how should we be thinking about the timing of some of the benefits?

Let me talk to you broadly about what it was, and Michael can come back and add some color on what it might mean. I think that's probably a good way to do it.

So if we think about what it was, what it means is if we've got networks of quarries, servicing our customers, but in some instances, because volume is not running at particularly peaky levels today, we can look at idle or not run aside as hard and run another site much harder getting leverage on the volume that's going through there and taking a look at which ones may be the simply the most efficient in any given market. That's what we're talking about doing.

And of course, when we do that, we do it the customer top of mind because we have to make sure we're in a position to take care of their business needs and make sure we're in a position to do that without creating degrees of supply disruption or additional costs in their world from more transportation.

So what we found, and we looked at this in the West, in particular, is where we had degrees of market presence that allowed us to do that, and we could temporarily do something with the site and make sure we're using other sites more productively. It helped in multiple different ways. So with that, I'll ask Michael to speak to what it could potentially mean. And obviously, we're going to talk to you more about this as the year goes on.

Yes. No. I think starting with the pilot is important. So like we said, we saw that flow through in Q4, so measures implemented in Q3 of last year. And that meant COGS per ton declining year-over-year in that pilot market.

So we had the benefit of that. That was overcoming the restructuring charges that are in our adjusted EBITDA not the full amount, but some of that was hitting a gross profit in that pilot region where they still had declining COGS per ton to put it in perspective without pulling that out.

So the opportunity set is rather large. We want to complete our assessment across the entire footprint before we come back and quantify it, and we expect to have that quantification done by midyear, and that's when we will revisit the guide and update our tax per ton assumption accordingly.

But I think it's important to note, we're guiding the 3% COGS per ton and the implied guide. If you exclude the external freight, which has just passed through freight to the customer, so not gross profit impacting. And if you exclude those restructuring charges that hit at gross profit, our underlying COGS per ton fully loaded with depreciation and otherwise was growing at a 2.7% rate in Q4. So we're guiding modestly above that, but that will give you a sense of some of the conservatism that we feel we've included in this early guide.

Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo.

Wanted to just ask if you could share anything with us about the timing of the Quick REIT transfer closing? And any updated thoughts on the pipeline would be great. .

So thank you, Timna, and I to hear your voice. I would say several things. One, we had put out release at the end of the year saying we anticipated closing in Q1. We still do. The long pole in the tent is real estate.

And it was interesting, Timna, because we went through the regulatory piece of it probably quicker than we or anybody else would have anticipated. So right now -- and of course, the agreement itself is publicly filed, so you have an opportunity to read that.

And what you'll see in the agreement is there a series of closing conditions and many of them evolve around the real estate. Because if you think about what a big 1031 exchanges to get the tax deferred treatment, you're having the lineup assets. And of course, on the quick rate side and on our side, there are certain sites that would simply be more material than others.

So we're going through the process of land use and surveying and getting title insurance. and that simply takes some time. But again, our anticipation continues to be that we will get that closed here in the first quarter. I think the other part of your question was relative -- as Timna was it relative to pricing? .

No. It's about anything updated on your pipeline or how you're seeing the opportunities and acquisitions.

Just on that outlook. Look, it's -- the short answer is that's going to continue to be a nice attractive driver for Martin Marietta. We have been and continue to be engaged in a number of significant conversations, as I think I indicated at our Investor Day or Capital Markets Day, people should expect us to be in the world of doing about $1 billion worth of transactions a year, and that's never going to be linear, Timna. So look, is it going to be $1 billion one year? Yes.

Could it be $4 million the next? The answer is it could be depending opportunistically on what comes along. But the pipeline continues to be very attractive, and it's obviously something that I think we're good at, and we've added a lot of value with and we'll continue to pursue.

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research.

Ward, you've given great insight on outlook for the business and the industry. But is it a macro? Is it regulatory? Is there sentiment concerns? Because there are some people who are thinking the macro is not as right as others. What's the thing -- one or two things that you are concerned about that would maybe impact how the year flows out, anything top of mind or anything specific?

Mike, thanks for the question. Look, take if you could put me on mute, that would help. I'm hearing an echo. Look, I think of the year through several different lenses. When I think of it through end users, which we've spoken through.

And again, I think we've taken a really measured view on the end users. I look at it through the lens of commercial. And again, I think commercially, where this business is performing is right in line with what we had indicated at the Capital Markets Day. I look at it through the lens of cost and through the lens of inflation. And as Michael just took you through, when we really go through and look at it from a granular basis and look at Q4, how that performed and what we think can happen actually with that as we go through degrees of really looking at where we're operating, why, I don't see anything on the cost side that causes me concern.

. Regulatorily, I think actually, the nation and the industry is in one of the better places that I've seen in my career. So I don't see something there that causes me any concern. Look, I know there's a lot out there that people look at from a macro perspective, that they can become cautious about. The thing that I'm taken by is this is a business even in the worst of times, and we're not in the worst of times, so I don't anticipate them.

We've always been profitable. We've always -- we've never cut or suspended the dividend. And we're in a place that we're producing and selling this past year, about 200 million tons of stone. And that's about where we were in 2005 and 2006, except we've added, let's call it, 50 million, 55 million tons of business. So what we have ahead of us from a capacity perspective is impressive and what we're doing with free cash flow right now is impressive.

And I think if we're doing that in a relatively muted volume environment, what that tells me is if we're right on what's coming ahead of us, it can be really impressive. So I'm not seeing a lot right now that's causing me any degree of angst.

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

What I just wanted to ask you about your value over volume strategy. And just, I guess, to the extent to which that may be put to a test this year, there's been a lot of weakness downstream ready-mix business, it's a pretty difficult business these days. And I'm just wondering about the risk of price pressure from below just due to weak profitability in that segment of your market and consolidation amongst those players and just how that could potentially manifest into your business?

Yes. Thanks for the question, David. Look, the way it's working right now, if you think about it, asphalt in most of those businesses are getting January 1 price increases. Degrees of concrete businesses are getting January 1 price increases. And some of them are getting April 1 increases.

So if you think about what that means, it's pretty similar to last year. And -- and of course, the conversations have already been had. People know where we are going into the new year. We have not baked midyears into what we've done. If I'm right on what could happen relative to public and degrees of heavy nonres, there may be some opportunities from the years.

Keep in mind, too, David, after we've closed -- well, after we close Quikrete and then give you the forecast on Minnesota, both those businesses tend to have lower ASPs than Martin Marietta. So that's going to give you an optical headwind when we put those into our forecast going forward.

But again, my view if we go back to the Capital Markets Day is we're not going to stay chronically at double digits. We're not going to go back in my view to where we were a decade ago from a percentage perspective, we're going to land somewhere in the middle. And the swing factor on that is going to be what happens with volume.

So I think what we're guiding to is very consistent with that. And again, I think there's probably upside risk to it relative to what could happen with midyears and what can happen is volume returns to it. So I hope that answers your question. We're pretty resilient around assuring that we're getting appropriate value for our products. It's hard to buy these businesses.

It's hard to permit these businesses. It's hard to put a spec product on the ground. And I want to make sure we're getting appropriate value when we do.

Brent Thielman, D.A. Davidson.

Ward, it seems to me housing could be one of the more dynamic markets for you in the next year or two. So you sort of think back on the business over time. How should we think about sort of this lag from permits and starts to having some noticeable sort of impact to your business?

I've always looked at that historically as having probably a three or four-month lag I'm not sure it's going to be that long, this time, Brent. So again, part of what you're not seeing is what the square footage look like in those numbers. And again, as we continue to see big square footage in nonres rollout at pretty big numbers, I think that's going to be a consumer of stone.

And again, I think the public side of this is going to be healthy and it's going to be healthy for a while yet. So I'm not seeing -- I wouldn't let those numbers and any purported delays drive my model in either particular direction, Brent?

Judah Aronovitz, UBS.

Can you just talk about your confidence level in the 5% pricing for '26? Is that based on pricing already in place? Or is there maybe some more work to do to achieve that maybe based on bid work? And then if you could comment on if there's any mix headwind from base or any other puts and makes.

Thank you for the question. That's largely for what's in place. I mean we've had the conversations with our customers that started last year. So I think we've got a pretty good feel for what that is. as I indicated before, this is more of an optical issue than a real issue. But obviously, if we do M&A, and they come in at a lower average selling price than our heritage selling price, that can cause an optical issue.

The other thing that you just never have a sense for, and it's almost quarter quarter-by-quarter issue, and you saw indicated that the East region in Q4 actually because of what had happened with a couple of project delays and weather, actually saw less tonnage go in Q4 than our other divisions.

And that obviously gave us a mix headwind from a geographic mix perspective. It's certainly possible that we could continue having degrees of a mix headwind as well because if you're thinking about some of these big data centers and the fact that they're going to need, oftentimes an enormous amount of base stone is they're going in and building the facilities.

Base is going to go out typically and let's call it, a 30% ASP lower than Cleanstone. Now the nice thing is when you put down Baston at some point, you're going to put Cleanstone on top of it. So it's nothing that's dislocating in any respect.

And I think it's going to be incumbent on us to make sure we're talking with you very carefully each quarter about what geographic mix looks like and what product looks like because if you don't understand those two stories and they are two different ones. It does not give you an accurate view of how well the business is performing in all instances. So yes, we believe the pricing is there. We think there can always be some mix issues but we think that's more optical than real.

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back to Mr. Ward Nye for closing remarks.

Abby, thank you for that, and thank you all for attending today's earnings conference call. Over the past five years, deliberate portfolio shaping strengthened our presence in key markets, optimized our product mix and enhanced our earnings profile. As we transition from the achievements of SOAR 2025 to the disciplined execution of SOAR 2030, which is already underway, we see a one defined platform for advancing our growth ambitions and delivering enduring shareholder value.

Our aggregates-led foundation, complemented by our high-performing specialties business provides a durable platform uniquely suited to achieve the objectives of our next strategic plan. With this resilient foundation and a culture built on safety and commercial and operational excellence, we enter the next chapter of SOAR with confidence and clarity of purpose, focused on compounding returns and delivering superior sustainable results for our shareholders in 2026 and beyond.

We look forward to sharing our first quarter 2026 results in the coming months. As always, we're available for any follow-up questions. We thank you for your time and continued support of Martin Marietta.

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.