Markel Group Inc (MKL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). During the call today, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements.

早安，歡迎參加 Markel 集團 2023 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於當前有關各種已知和未知風險的假設和意見。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in the press release for our 2023 results as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including under the caption Safe Harbor and Cautionary Statements and Risk Factors.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們 2023 年業績的新聞稿以及我們最新的 10-K 表年度報告和 10 表季度報告-Q，包括「安全港」及「警告聲明及風險因素」標題下的內容。

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call today. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for these measures in the press release for our 2023 results. The press release for our 2023 results as well as our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q can be found on our website at www.mklgroup.com in the Investor Relations section. Please note this event is being recorded.

我們也可能在今天的電話會議上討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們 2023 年業績的新聞稿中找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準以及這些衡量標準與 GAAP 的對帳。有關我們 2023 年業績的新聞稿以及表格 10-K 和表格 10-Q 可以在我們網站 www.mklgroup.com 的投資者關係部分找到。請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給執行長湯姆蓋納 (Tom Gayner)。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group 2023 year-end conference call. This is indeed Tom Gayner and I serve as your CEO. I'm joined today by Jeremy Noble, the President of our Insurance Operations; and Brian Costanzo, our Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 Markel 集團 2023 年年終電話會議。這確實是湯姆·蓋納（Tom Gayner），我擔任你們的執行長。今天我們的保險業務總裁傑里米·諾布爾 (Jeremy Noble) 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長 Brian Costanzo。

Our plan this morning is to make just a few comments and then open the floor for your questions. Many years ago, I remember the great football coach, John McKay, saying the most exciting place you can be is in the locker room at halftime when you're down 10 points. I'll make no mistake about it. We're down 10 points, almost literally and figuratively from where we'd like to be in our insurance operations. Just like a good football team, though, winning remains the goal, but we need to do better. We share your disappointment in those results.

我們今天早上的計劃是發表一些評論，然後開始提問。許多年前，我記得偉大的足球教練約翰麥凱說過，最令人興奮的地方就是半場落後 10 分時的更衣室。我不會弄錯的。與我們希望的保險業務目標相比，我們幾乎實際且象徵性地下降了 10 個百分點。就像一支優秀的足球隊一樣，獲勝仍然是我們的目標，但我們需要做得更好。我們和您一樣對這些結果感到失望。

We're also committed to taking the necessary actions to make them better. We're in the locker room right now. We're adjusting our game plans. We're clear-eyed about where we stand on the scoreboard and where we fell short. We're taking active steps to improve our position. Jeremy will speak to our insurance engine in just a moment, and his team continue to be hard at the task of understanding and quantifying areas of weakness as well as strengths and taking the necessary steps to improve results.

我們也致力於採取必要的行動來改善它們。我們現在在更衣室。我們正在調整我們的比賽計劃。我們清楚地知道我們在記分板上的位置以及我們的不足。我們正在採取積極措施來改善我們的地位。傑里米稍後將與我們的保險引擎交談，他的團隊將繼續努力理解和量化弱點和優勢領域，並採取必要的措施來改善結果。

We've made several significant management changes in the past year and taking actions such as withdrawing or reducing certain lines of business, reducing line sizes, increasing accountability, modifying incentive compensation arrangements, increasing the scope and scale for some of the proven winners in our insurance operations and decreasing or eliminating pockets with disappointing performance.

在過去的一年裡，我們進行了幾項重大的管理變革，並採取了一些行動，例如撤回或減少某些業務線、縮小業務線規模、加強問責制、修改激勵薪酬安排、擴大我們的一些經過驗證的贏家的範圍和規模。保險業務，減少或消除業績令人失望的口袋。

The transition year of 2023 produced results well below our expectations, but I am confident that we've recognized the pieces of our insurance engine where we needed to make changes and that we're taking appropriate steps to make things better.

2023 年的過渡年產生的結果遠低於我們的預期，但我相信我們已經認識到我們的保險引擎中需要做出改變的部分，並且我們正在採取適當的措施來使事情變得更好。

Many areas in insurance produced wonderful results of which we should all be proud. Those results were offset and obscured by certain limited but meaningful pockets of underperformance. As such, the aggregate combined ratio came in higher than our original plans.

保險業的許多領域都取得了令人驚嘆的成果，我們都應該為此感到自豪。這些結果被某些有限但有意義的表現不佳的部分所抵消和掩蓋。因此，總綜合成本率高於我們最初的計劃。

Fortunately, while we did experience adverse development in the fourth quarter, we did indeed have positive development -- redundant development for the full year. We always operate with the core belief that we will always set our reserves at levels that we believe will prove to be more likely redundant than deficient.

幸運的是，雖然我們在第四季度確實經歷了逆發展，但我們確實有積極的發展——全年的冗餘發展。我們始終秉持核心信念開展業務，即我們將始終將儲備設定在我們認為更有可能是多餘而不是不足的水平。

I'm proud of our insurance team and that despite the difficult year, we continue to live up to the standard of integrity and discipline in setting loss reserves. We've done so for years. We will continue to hold to that standard going forward.

我為我們的保險團隊感到自豪，儘管經歷了困難的一年，我們在設定損失準備金方面仍繼續遵守誠信和紀律的標準。我們多年來一直這樣做。今後我們將繼續堅持這項標準。

Jeremy will provide more details on the insurance results of 2023 in his comments. I also want to reinforce that the changes we made in 2023 and those that we continue to refine in 2024 and beyond, will take time to show up in the financial statements.

Jeremy 將在評論中提供有關 2023 年保險業績的更多詳細資訊。我還想強調，我們在 2023 年所做的改變以及我們在 2024 年及以後繼續完善的改變需要時間才能體現在財務報表中。

Every decision or action that we take in insurance takes at least a year to fully flow through our financial statements. We look forward to reporting better results in future periods. As the actions we have taken take hold.

我們在保險領域採取的每項決定或行動至少需要一年的時間才能完全反映在我們的財務報表中。我們期待在未來報告更好的結果。隨著我們採取的行動生效。

Turning to some more positive and fun things to talk about. In 2023, we earned excellent results in our ventures and investment operations. Recurring investment income from dividends and interest rose 64% from $447 million to $735 million in 2023.

轉向一些更積極和有趣的事情來談論。 2023年，我們的創業投資經營取得了優異的成績。 2023 年，來自股息和利息的經常性投資收入從 4.47 億美元增至 7.35 億美元，成長了 64%。

Every engine at the Markel Group continued to produce cash and that cash, along with maturities from our bond portfolio was invested in higher-yielding fixed income instruments. Dividend income also rose due to net purchases in the equity portfolio and dividend increases. I think you can expect this positive trend to continue in 2024 with interest rates at current levels.

Markel 集團的每個引擎都在繼續產生現金，這些現金以及我們債券投資組合的到期日被投資於收益更高的固定收益工具。由於股票投資組合的淨購買和股息增加，股息收入也有所增加。我認為，在目前的利率水準下，這種正面趨勢將在 2024 年持續下去。

We also repurchased 322,000 Markel Group shares in 2023 for $445 million compared to 233,000 shares for $291 million in 2022. Share repurchases continue to be a high priority use of capital for us at current prices.

我們也於2023 年以4.45 億美元的價格回購了322,000 股Markel Group 股票，而2022 年以2.91 億美元的價格回購了233,000 股。以當前價格計算，股票回購仍然是我們資本的高度優先用途。

In our Markel Ventures operations, top line revenues grew 5% from $4.8 billion to just a smidge under $5 billion. More importantly, operating income rose 35% and from $325 million to $438 million and EBITDA rose 24% from $506 million to $628 million.

在我們的 Markel Ventures 業務中，營收成長了 5%，從 48 億美元增加到略低於 50 億美元。更重要的是，營業收入成長了 35%，從 3.25 億美元成長到 4.38 億美元，EBITDA 成長了 24%，從 5.06 億美元成長到 6.28 億美元。

We did not make any new platform acquisitions in 2023. We were able to add to our VSC operations and increase our ownership stake in certain situations. We also completed an acquisition at Costa just after January 1, that will add to our 2024 results.

我們在 2023 年沒有進行任何新的平台收購。我們能夠增加我們的 VSC 業務，並在某些情況下增加我們的所有權股份。我們也在 1 月 1 日後完成了對 Costa 的收購，這將增加我們 2024 年的表現。

We remain disciplined and thoughtful in our capital allocation decisions, and it is exciting to see our existing businesses find ways to grow. This is simply a phenomenal performance by the Ventures team. It reflects the ongoing maturity and development of the Markel Ventures businesses. I could not be more proud of the team from top to bottom as they continue to produce excellent results and do so in the context of the values of the Markel style.

我們在資本配置決策中保持紀律和深思熟慮，很高興看到我們現有的業務找到成長的方式。這簡直就是創投團隊的驚人表現。它反映了 Markel Ventures 業務的持續成熟和發展。我為整個團隊從上到下感到無比自豪，因為他們在馬克爾風格價值觀的背景下繼續取得優異的成績。

In our investment operations, we purchased over $300 million net of publicly traded equities, which met our long-standing 4-part investment tests. We earned a total equity return of 21.6% during the year, and I'm happy with those results. They were produced with our discipline fully intact.

在我們的投資業務中，我們購買了超過 3 億美元的淨公開交易股票，這符合我們長期以來的四部分投資測試。這一年我們的總股本回報率為 21.6%，我對這些結果感到滿意。它們是在我們的紀律完好無損的情況下生產的。

Among other things, the unrealized gain on our equity portfolio now stands at over $6 billion pre-tax. I'm not aware of many companies that enjoy a position such as that.

除此之外，我們股票投資組合的未實現收益目前稅前超過 60 億美元。據我所知，沒有多少公司享有這樣的職位。

Thank you all for your long-standing support of the Markel Group. I share your disappointment in some of the results within our insurance engine, and I'm confident that we are taking appropriate and necessary steps to improve those results.

感謝大家長期以來對馬克爾集團的支持。我和您一樣對我們保險引擎的一些結果感到失望，但我相信我們正在採取適當且必要的措施來改善這些結果。

Meanwhile, given our diversification of the 3 engine system and our excellent results, adventures and positive investment results, we are making good economic progress at the Markel growth. While we continue to deemphasize book value per share as the sole describer of economic progress around here, it's probably worth noting that book value per share went up over 17% in 2023.

同時，鑑於我們三引擎系統的多元化以及我們出色的業績、冒險精神和積極的投資成果，我們在馬克爾成長中取得了良好的經濟進展。雖然我們繼續不強調每股帳面價值作為經濟進步的唯一描述因素，但值得注意的是，2023 年每股帳面價值成長了 17% 以上。

In the last 5 years that it has increased to the compound annual growth rate of 11% despite what we described as some of the most challenging circumstances we've ever experienced. I am deeply optimistic that we are on track and make progress in 2024 and beyond.

在過去 5 年中，儘管我們經歷了一些最具挑戰性的環境，但複合年增長率仍達到 11%。我對我們在 2024 年及以後步入正軌並取得進展深感樂觀。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian to update you on the 2023 numbers and then to Jeremy for his review of our insurance operations. Following Jeremy's comments, we'll open the floor for questions. Brian?

接下來，我將把它交給 Brian，讓您了解 2023 年的最新數據，然後交給 Jeremy，讓他對我們的保險業務進行審查。在傑里米發表評論後，我們將開始提問。布萊恩？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be with you all this morning to discuss our 2023 results. As Tom mentioned, 2023 illustrated the diversity of our 3 engine system. While our combined ratio result for the year is disappointing, our ventures and investment engines had terrific years with EBITDA from Markel Ventures, the value of our investments and our net investment income hitting record highs. With that, let's jump into the results.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早安。我很高興今天早上能夠與大家一起討論我們 2023 年的表現。正如 Tom 所提到的，2023 年體現了我們三引擎系統的多樣性。雖然我們今年的綜合成本率結果令人失望，但我們的創投和投資引擎在 Markel Ventures 的 EBITDA 上取得了輝煌的業績，我們的投資價值和淨投資收入創下了歷史新高。接下來，讓我們看看結果。

Starting out with our consolidated results. We reported net income to common shareholders of $2 billion in 2023 versus the net loss to common shareholders of $253 million in 2022, with the change largely attributed to the year-over-year swing in our public equity portfolio valuation.

從我們的綜合結果開始。我們報告的 2023 年普通股股東淨利潤為 20 億美元，而 2022 年普通股股東淨虧損為 2.53 億美元，這一變化主要歸因於我們公共股權投資組合估值的同比波動。

Comprehensive income to shareholders in 2023 was $2.3 billion versus a comprehensive loss to shareholders of $1.2 billion in 2022, driven most notably by the favorable swings in our fixed maturity and public equity portfolios.

2023 年股東綜合收益為 23 億美元，而 2022 年股東綜合損失為 12 億美元，這主要是由於我們的固定期限和公共股權投資組合的有利波動。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.8 billion in 2023 versus $2.7 billion in 2022, reflecting strong cash flows from each of our 3 operating engines.

2023 年，經營活動提供的淨現金為 28 億美元，而 2022 年為 27 億美元，反映出我們的 3 個營運引擎均擁有強勁的現金流。

Total shareholders' equity stood at $15 billion at the end of 2023. As Tom mentioned earlier, we repurchased $445 million of Markel Group common stock this year under our outstanding share repurchase program compared to $291 million last year.

截至 2023 年底，股東權益總額為 150 億美元。正如 Tom 先前提到的，我們今年根據已發行股票回購計畫回購了 4.45 億美元的 Markel Group 普通股，而去年為 2.91 億美元。

Turning over to our underwriting operations. Gross written premiums within our underwriting operations grew 4% to $10.3 billion in 2023 compared to $9.8 billion in 2022, reflecting new business and more favorable rates across many product lines within our insurance segment, most notably our personal and property product lines.

移交給我們的承保業務。我們承保業務的總承保保費成長了4%，從2022 年的98 億美元增至2023 年的103 億美元，反映出我們保險部門內許多產品線（尤其是我們的個人和財產產品線）的新業務和更優惠的費率。

We saw lower premium volume within select domestic professional liability and general liability product lines where we adjusted writings in reaction to changes in market conditions and downward pressure on rates within certain classes in particular within public D&O.

我們看到特定國內專業責任和一般責任產品線的保費量有所下降，我們根據市場狀況的變化和某些類別（特別是公共 D&O 內）利率的下行壓力調整了保費。

Our consolidated combined ratio was 98% in 2023 versus 92% in 2022. The increase in the combined ratio was primarily driven by higher attritional loss ratios in 2023 on our general liability and professional liability product line within our insurance segment in reaction to increasing estimates of future loss cost trends.

2023 年，我們的綜合綜合成本率為98%，而2022 年為92%。綜合成本率的成長主要是由於2023 年我們保險部門的一般責任和專業責任產品線的損耗損失率上升，這是由於對未來損失成本趨勢。

Prior year losses developed favorably by $39 million in 2023 versus $167 million in 2022. We experienced meaningful favorable loss reserve development across multiple product lines in 2023, most notably within our international professional liability products and our global property and marine and energy product lines within the insurance segment. This favorable development was largely offset by adverse development on our general liability product lines across both underwriting segments an adverse development on a discontinued portion of our public entity product line within our Reinsurance segment. Jeremy will provide more insight on our loss development experience during his comments.

上一年的損失在2023 年有利地增長了3,900 萬美元，而2022 年為1.67 億美元。2023 年，我們在多個產品線中經歷了有意義的有利損失準備金發展，尤其是在我們的國際專業責任產品以及我們在全球範圍內的全球財產、海洋和能源產品線。保險板塊。這種有利的發展在很大程度上被我們兩個承保部門的一般責任產品線的不利發展以及我們的再保險部門內公共實體產品線的已停產部分的不利發展所抵消。傑里米將在評論中提供有關我們損失發展經驗的更多見解。

Moving to our investment results. We reported net investment income of $735 million in 2023 versus $447 million last year, a 64% increase. As we reinvested maturing securities in our fixed income portfolio at higher interest rates.

轉向我們的投資成果。我們報告 2023 年淨投資收入為 7.35 億美元，而去年為 4.47 億美元，成長 64%。當我們以更高的利率將到期證券再投資於固定收益投資組合時。

The total size of our fixed income portfolio also grew in alignment with our growth in reserves given we generally match our insurance liabilities with highly rated fixed income securities of similar duration and currency. The largest contributor to our increase in net investment income is related to our cash and cash equivalents where we have increased our allocation to money market funds to take advantage of the current interest rate environment.

我們的固定收益投資組合的總規模也隨著準備金的增長而增長，因為我們通常將保險負債與期限和貨幣相似的高評級固定收益證券相匹配。我們淨投資收入增加的最大貢獻者與我們的現金和現金等價物有關，我們增加了對貨幣市場基金的配置，以利用當前的利率環境。

Net investment gains of $1.5 billion in 2023 reflect favorable market value movements driving a return of 21.6% on our public equity portfolio during the year. This compares to net investment losses of $1.6 billion in 2022. As you've heard us say many times before, we focus on long-term investment performance, expecting variability in the equity markets and the timing of investment gains and losses from period to period. At the end of 2023, the fair value of our equity portfolio included pretax cumulative unrealized holding gains of $6.1 billion.

2023 年的淨投資收益為 15 億美元，反映出有利的市場價值變動，推動我們的公共股權投資組合年內實現 21.6% 的回報率。相較之下，2022 年的淨投資損失為 16 億美元。正如您之前多次聽到我們所說，我們專注於長期投資業績，預計股票市場的變化以及不同時期的投資收益和損失的時間安排。截至 2023 年底，我們股票投資組合的公允價值包括稅前累計未實現持有收益 61 億美元。

Net unrealized investment gains included in other comprehensive income in 2023 or $307 million net of taxes compared to net unrealized investment losses of $1.2 billion net of taxes in 2022. These movements correspond to changes in the fair value of our fixed maturity portfolio, resulting from changes in interest rates. Recall that we typically hold our bond investments until maturity and we generally expect unrealized holding gains and losses attributed to changes in interest rates to reverse in future periods as bonds mature.

2023 年計入其他綜合收益的未實現淨投資收益為3.07 億美元（稅後淨額），而2022 年未實現淨投資損失為12 億美元（稅後淨額）。這些變動與我們固定期限投資組合因變動而產生的公允價值變動相對應在利率方面。回想一下，我們通常持有債券投資直至到期，並且我們通常預計由於利率變化而導致的未實現持有收益和損失將在未來隨著債券到期而逆轉。

The cumulative amount of pre-tax unrealized losses on our bond portfolio was $560 million as of the end of 2023. We continue our long-standing practice of investing in the highest quality fixed income securities. As of December 31, 97% of our fixed maturity portfolio was rated AA or better, and there are no current or expected credit losses within the portfolio.

截至 2023 年底，我們債券投資組合的稅前未實現損失累計金額為 5.6 億美元。我們繼續投資於最高品質的固定收益證券的長期做法。截至 12 月 31 日，我們 97% 的固定期限投資組合評級為 AA 或更高，且投資組合中不存在當前或預期信用損失。

Finally, moving over to our Markel Ventures segment. Revenues from Markel Ventures increased 5% to just under $5 billion for 2023, up from $4.8 billion last year, reflecting higher prices and increased demand across several businesses. Most notably within our construction services and equipment manufacturing businesses.

最後，轉向我們的 Markel Ventures 部門。 2023 年 Markel Ventures 的營收成長 5%，達到近 50 億美元，高於去年的 48 億美元，反映出價格上漲和多個業務需求增加。最引人注目的是我們的建築服務和設備製造業務。

EBITDA from Markel Ventures increased 24% to a record high of $628 million in 2023, up from $506 million in 2022. The increase was driven by increases in most all of our products businesses within the consumer and building products, equipment manufacturing and transportation areas driven by increased revenues and higher margins in 2023 versus 2022 as material and freight costs stabilized this year.

Markel Ventures 的EBITDA 成長24%，從2022 年的5.06 億美元增至2023 年的歷史新高6.28 億美元。這一增長是由我們在消費和建築產品、設備製造和運輸領域內的大多數產品業務的成長推動的由於今年材料和貨運成本穩定，2023 年的營收和利潤率較 2022 年增加。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jeremy to further discuss our insurance engine.

這樣，我將把它交給 Jeremy 進一步討論我們的保險引擎。

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As Tom and Brian alluded to, we experienced mixed results within our insurance operations in 2023. An overall 98% combined ratio for the year is disappointing and below our long-term goals.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。正如 Tom 和 Brian 所提到的，我們在 2023 年的保險業務中經歷了好壞參半的結果。今年 98% 的整體綜合成本率令人失望，低於我們的長期目標。

I assume the reins of our insurance platform last year, and the reality is that 2023 was not the year I anticipated. I think it's important for me to take a few minutes and explain what's happened, what we are doing about it as well as to highlight what is going well.

我去年就掌控了我們的保險平台，但現實是 2023 年並不是我預期的一年。我認為對我來說，花幾分鐘時間解釋發生的事情、我們正在採取的措施以及強調進展順利的事情對我來說很重要。

Our result for the year was heavily influenced by the recent loss trends within select product lines within our North American casualty and professional liability books. And to a lesser extent, some tough lessons within our intellectual property CPI product line. Before I touch upon the adverse development this quarter, let me first highlight some of the best performing parts of our business.

我們今年的業績很大程度上受到北美傷亡和專業責任帳簿中選定產品線近期損失趨勢的影響。在較小程度上，我們的智慧財產權 CPI 產品線中也有一些慘痛的教訓。在談到本季的不利發展之前，讓我先強調我們業務中表現最好的部分。

Our International division had an outstanding year in 2023, achieving both double-digit top line growth and a combined ratio below 90. Our international teams portfolio management over the last few years is starting to show in the results.

我們的國際部門在 2023 年表現出色，實現了兩位數的營收成長，綜合成本率低於 90。我們的國際團隊過去幾年的投資組合管理開始在業績中顯現。

In 2023, we expanded our international operations into Australia and within Europe. We added to our product capabilities, further diversifying and growing our platform. We see more opportunities to grow internationally in the years ahead.

2023 年，我們將國際業務擴展到澳洲和歐洲。我們增強了產品能力，進一步豐富和發展了我們的平台。我們看到未來幾年有更多的國際發展機會。

Both of our non-underwriting businesses, State National and Nephila had fantastic years. State National continues to grow, maintain exemplary discipline around reinsurer credit management and produce exceptional operating margins. Nephila demonstrated itself as a market leader. Delivering high-quality data and insight-driven portfolio construction, while deploying innovative strategies to maximize returns for investors through meaningful improvements in pricing adequacy in the property cat market. Nephila is well positioned going into 2024 and beyond. Note some of how Markel participates in the recent property market improvements occur outside of our reported combined ratio and are reflected in our results at Nephila.

我們的兩個非承保業務 State National 和 Nephila 都度過了美好的時光。 State National 持續發展，在再保險公司信貸管理方面保持模範紀律，並產生卓越的營業利潤。 Nephila 證明了自己作為市場領導者的地位。提供高品質的數據和洞察驅動的投資組合構建，同時部署創新策略，透過有意義地改善房地產貓市場的定價充足性來最大限度地提高投資者的回報。 Nephila 在 2024 年及以後處於有利地位。請注意，Markel 如何參與近期房地產市場改善的一些情況發生在我們報告的綜合比率之外，並反映在我們 Nephila 的結果中。

Together, our ongoing fronting and ILS operations, excluding the impact of gains on the disposition of subsidiaries in both years, contributed operating income before amortization of $146 million in 2023, up almost 40% from a year ago. We were excited to announce the formation of State National global platform during the quarter. We look forward to continued growth and profitability in these business units. Further, we will continue to deploy our world-class insurance platforms across underwriting, fronting and ILS to maximize returns for Markel Group.

排除這兩年處置子公司收益的影響，我們正在進行的前端業務和 ILS 業務合計在 2023 年貢獻了 1.46 億美元的攤銷前營業收入，比一年前增長了近 40%。我們很高興地宣布 State National 全球平台在本季成立。我們期待這些業務部門的持續成長和獲利。此外，我們將繼續在承保、前置和 ILS 領域部署世界一流的保險平台，以最大限度地提高 Markel Group 的回報。

Our global reinsurance operations reported a disappointing combined ratio for the year, much of that related to adverse development within our reinsurance casualty lines in the years before 2020. As discussed in recent quarters, we undertook meaningful changes regarding our appetite and approach to portfolio management. We are focused on improved long-term profitability.

我們的全球再保險業務今年的綜合成本率令人失望，這很大程度上與2020 年之前我們的再保險傷亡險線的不利發展有關。正如最近幾個季度所討論的，我們對投資組合管理的偏好和方法進行了有意義的改變。我們專注於提高長期獲利能力。

We have a refreshed reinsurance leadership team and portfolio and we feel very good about where we stand today in that business.

我們擁有煥然一新的再保險領導團隊和投資組合，我們對目前在該業務中的地位感到非常滿意。

Finally, our Specialty division has faced challenges within portions of our casualty and professional liability lines, meaningful segments of our specialty portfolio are performing well. For example, our property in marine, small commercial, personal lines and surety product lines, all had outstanding years, achieving double-digit growth and combined ratios at or well below our 2023 targets. Together, these product lines alone represent about $3 billion in annual gross written premium volume.

最後，我們的專業部門在我們的傷亡和專業責任保險中面臨挑戰，我們的專業投資組合中有意義的部分錶現良好。例如，我們在船舶、小型商業、個人產品線和擔保產品線方面的財產都表現出色，實現了兩位數的成長，綜合成本率達到或遠低於我們的 2023 年目標。光是這些產品線就代表了約 30 億美元的年度保費毛額。

The growth in these classes and several other segments of our business demonstrates our strong core. These business units are well established and poised to produce solid underwriting results in the future.

這些類別和我們業務的其他幾個領域的成長證明了我們強大的核心。這些業務部門已經完善，並準備在未來產生可觀的核保績效。

Turning back to our domestic casualty and professional liability insurance portfolios. We have been challenged by the market dynamics within the Contractor segment of our brokerage excess umbrella and primary general liability lines in casualties and our risk-managed E&O and D&O lines and professional liability. This includes all of the factors driving a loss cost trends we have discussed in previous quarters and are widely reported across the industry, including social and economic inflation and litigation financing trends.

回到我們的國內傷亡和職業責任保險組合。我們的經紀超額保護傘和傷亡主要一般責任險以及風險管理的 E&O 和 D&O 險以及專業責任等承包商領域的市場動態給我們帶來了挑戰。這包括我們在前幾個季度討論過並在整個行業中廣泛報告的驅動損失成本趨勢的所有因素，包括社會和經濟通貨膨脹以及訴訟融資趨勢。

We have meaningfully increased our prior accident year loss reserves in these specific lines throughout the latter half of 2022 and during 2023 to respond to these emerging loss trends. However, as the year progressed and the loss trends continue to deteriorate, it became clear that we needed to take a more focused review of our portfolios to better understand the underlying dynamics and causes of the adverse loss development trends. In doing so, we would ensure we are maintaining healthy portfolios with sufficient rate adequacy as we move forward.

我們在 2022 年下半年和 2023 年期間大幅增加了這些特定線路的前事故年度損失準備金，以應對這些新出現的損失趨勢。然而，隨著時間的推移和損失趨勢繼續惡化，很明顯，我們需要對我們的投資組合進行更有針對性的審查，以更好地了解不良損失發展趨勢的潛在動態和原因。在此過程中，我們將確保在前進的過程中保持健康的投資組合和足夠的利率充足性。

Therefore, in the fourth quarter, we conducted an extensive loss review of these lines and took meaningful action to put these prior year development trends behind us. While we can never have absolute certainty that there will be no further development within these portfolios, we are confident that with the additional actions we took in the quarter, we have created an even greater level of resiliency in our balance sheet, consistent with our long-held conservative reserving philosophy.

因此，在第四季度，我們對這些線路進行了廣泛的損失審查，並採取了有意義的行動，將去年的發展趨勢拋在腦後。雖然我們永遠無法絕對確定這些投資組合不會有進一步的發展，但我們相信，透過本季採取的額外行動，我們的資產負債表已經創造了更高水準的彈性，這與我們的長期目標一致。 - 持有保守的儲備理念。

Our overall casualty book is concentrated in construction business. Through our review, we determined the construction defect claims within our casualty construction portfolio and the longer reporting tail than originally anticipated. Average claim severity also continues to increase in this line due to the various forms of inflation we mentioned.

我們的整體傷亡人數主要集中在建築業。透過我們的審查，我們確定了事故建築組合中的建築缺陷索賠以及比最初預期更長的報告尾部。由於我們提到的各種形式的通貨膨脹，平均索賠嚴重程度也持續增加。

Consequently, the business is not as profitable as we thought when we originally wrote it. We also determined that there was a greater propensity within our access and umbrella general liability and risk-managed E&O professional books of limits below our attachment point being eroded, pushing more claims into our layers.

因此，該業務的獲利能力並不像我們最初編寫時所想像的那樣。我們還確定，我們的准入和保護傘一般責任以及風險管理的 E&O 專業書籍中低於我們附著點的限制更容易受到侵蝕，從而將更多索賠推入我們的層級。

Further, reporting of these claims has lagged historical development patterns due to the effects of court closures and claim backlogs, stemming from the COVID pandemic, aggressive tactics by the plaintiffs' bar and slow claim reporting trends. Considering these factors, we also added significant reserves to our casualty lines within our Reinsurance segment in accident years 2019 and prior.

此外，由於新冠疫情導致法院關閉和索賠積壓、原告律師事務所的激進策略以及索賠報告趨勢緩慢，這些索賠的報告滯後於歷史發展模式。考慮到這些因素，我們也在 2019 年及之前的事故年份為再保險部門的傷亡險增加了大量準備金。

These trends have been observable within our incurred loss development in accident years prior to 2020. Since that time, we have achieved significant rate increases across many of these classes and have taken a variety of underwriting actions. While these actions have significantly improved the profitability of these lines, we also added to reserves to our 2021 and 2022 accident years in the fourth quarter. We did this recognizing that the difference between loss ratios prior to the pandemic and post pandemic had reached a differential that did not feel consistent with our conservative approach to reserving and the ultimate cost to settle the claims on more recent years may prove to be higher than we initially anticipated.

這些趨勢在 2020 年之前的事故年份發生的損失發展中可以觀察到。自那時以來，我們在許多此類類別中實現了顯著的費率增長，並採取了各種承保行動。雖然這些行動顯著提高了這些線路的獲利能力，但我們也在第四季度增加了 2021 年和 2022 年事故年的準備金。我們這樣做是認識到，大流行之前和大流行之後的損失率之間的差異已經達到了一個差異，這與我們保守的準備金方法不一致，而且最近幾年解決索賠的最終成本可能會高於我們最初預計。

We had already adjusted our 2023 accident year attritional loss ratios at the beginning of the year in reaction to concerns around increasing loss trends. Given the most recent accident years are green, we feel it best to ensure we are maintaining an appropriate margin of safety to reduce the likelihood of future adverse development.

為了因應損失趨勢增加的擔憂，我們已經在年初調整了 2023 年事故年的自然損耗率。鑑於最近的事故年份是綠色的，我們認為最好確保我們保持適當的安全邊際，以減少未來不利發展的可能性。

That being said, there's a lot of uncertainty associated with reserving long-tailed lines of business that won't be settled for many years to come. Most of our reserves in these product lines are held in IBNR, particularly in the more recent years. In fact, as of year-end 2023, 70% of our total reserves are in IBNR, up from 67% at the end of 2022 and 63% 5 years ago.

話雖如此，保留長尾業務存在許多不確定性，這些不確定性在未來很多年都不會解決。我們在這些產品線中的大部分儲備都存放在 IBNR 中，特別是在最近幾年。事實上，截至 2023 年底，我們總儲備的 70% 位於 IBNR，高於 2022 年底的 67% 和 5 年前的 63%。

Despite these challenges, it's important to note we did have favorable development for the full year 2023. We continue to operate with a core belief that we should set reserves at a level that will prove more likely redundant than deficient. We remain committed to the principle and hope you take some comfort in the fact that it remains true for the full year 2023 despite the challenges we faced.

儘管有這些挑戰，但值得注意的是，我們在2023 年全年確實取得了良好的發展。我們繼續以核心信念開展業務，即我們應該將儲備金設定在一個更有可能是多餘而不是不足的水平。我們仍然恪守這項原則，儘管我們面臨挑戰，但這項原則在 2023 年全年仍然適用，希望您能感到些許安慰。

Now let me touch on what we're doing going into 2024. We will carry our positive momentum into the year from our International, State National and Nephila businesses and our specialty product lines. We are looking to use our power of the platform to create opportunities for growth.

現在讓我談談我們在 2024 年所做的事情。我們將把我們的國際業務、州國家業務和 Nephila 業務以及我們的特色產品線的積極勢頭帶入這一年。我們希望利用平台的力量來創造成長機會。

Regarding our casualty construction and risk managed professional liability lines, we are actively managing these portfolios. We've made changes to personnel. We will be exiting unprofitable classes in subsegments. We will reduce excessive concentrations in order to ensure our optimal portfolio balance, and we'll be appropriately adjusting rates, terms and conditions, limits, attachment points and other factors.

關於我們的傷亡建設和風險管理專業責任線，我們正在積極管理這些投資組合。我們對人員進行了調整。我們將退出細分市場中不獲利的類別。我們將減少過度集中，以確保最佳的投資組合平衡，並且我們將適當調整利率、條款和條件、限制、附著點和其他因素。

We are confident in our ability to re-underwrite these products back to levels of profitability we aspire to. We've done it before. We are determined to do it again. But these actions will take some time to earn their way through the results.

我們對將這些產品重新承保至我們渴望的獲利水準的能力充滿信心。我們以前已經做過了。我們決心再做一次。但這些行動需要一些時間才能取得成果。

Just a couple of comments on the pricing environment. It continues to be the case that each product area and region of the world has its own story. But broadly speaking, rates are continuing to hold up fairly well. By and large, are keeping up with and in some cases, are slightly ahead of our view of trend. We had many products where rates are up 5% to 10% and for most casualty product lines, and particularly of rate adequacy is in question, we are seeing success pushing for rate. Within our property offering, the pricing environment remains attractive. And while we expect increases to moderate in '24, the environment is constructive with healthy margins and anticipated returns on capital.

只是對定價環境的一些評論。世界上每個產品領域和地區都有自己的故事，這種情況仍然如此。但總體而言，利率持續保持良好。總的來說，與我們對趨勢的看法保持一致，在某些情況下，甚至略超前。我們有許多產品的費率高達 5% 至 10%，對於大多數傷亡產品線，尤其是費率充足性有問題的產品，我們看到費率的成功推動。在我們的房地產產品中，定價環境仍然具有吸引力。雖然我們預計 24 年成長將放緩，但環境具有建設性，利潤率和預期資本回報率良好。

Professional liability remains challenging from a pricing standpoint. While the rate of pricing declines on public D&O business have moderated, we remain very cautious with regards to current levels of rate adequacy and are managing our portfolio and exposures accordingly. Thank you. And with that, I will turn things back over to Tom.

從定價的角度來看，專業責任仍然具有挑戰性。雖然公共 D&O 業務的定價下降速度有所放緩，但我們對當前的利率充足水平仍然非常謹慎，並相應地管理我們的投資組合和風險敞口。謝謝。有了這個，我會把事情還給湯姆。

Thank you, Jeremy. And (inaudible), we will open the floor for questions, if you'd be so kind.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。並且（聽不清楚），如果您願意的話，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Charlie Lederer at Citi.

（操作員說明）我們將回答花旗集團的 Charlie Lederer 提出的第一個問題。

Can you expand on some of the underwriting and incentive compensation changes you mentioned you're making and how long of a process do you anticipate that being -- is this something we should think about impacting your appetite or growth just given GL and professional liability are your largest products.

您能否詳細介紹您提到的您正在做出的一些承保和激勵薪酬變化，以及您預計這一過程需要多長時間——考慮到總帳和專業責任，我們是否應該考慮影響您的胃口或增長？您最大的產品。

Yes. Thanks for the question. So a couple of things. First off, with regards to both our general liability and professional liability portfolios, there's a lot of business within those portfolios. And actually, some of the segments within them, if we look at casualty and we think about environmental, if we think about health care, we think about our binding operations, they're performing very well.

是的。謝謝你的提問。有幾件事。首先，就我們的一般責任和專業責任投資組合而言，這些投資組合中有很多業務。事實上，其中的一些部分，如果我們考慮傷亡，考慮環境，如果我們考慮醫療保健，我們考慮我們的綁定業務，它們表現得非常好。

In professional, if we think about commercial D&O and E&O is performing very well, financial advisers. So we have segments within those portfolios that we can continue to grow internationally as well on both the casualty and professional side. So pockets of the portfolio, we are growing. We can continue to grow. They're meeting our profitability targets in the classes that are more challenged in that space, even in the fourth quarter alone, we shed over $100 million of premium in those classes and still sort of grew our top line. within the insurance results.

在專業方面，如果我們考慮商業 D&O，E&O 的表現非常好，財務顧問。因此，我們在這些投資組合中擁有可以繼續在國際上以及在傷亡和專業方面成長的細分市場。因此，我們的投資組合正在不斷成長。我們可以繼續成長。他們在該領域面臨更大挑戰的類別中實現了我們的獲利目標，即使僅在第四季度，我們在這些類別中就損失了超過 1 億美元的溢價，但我們的營收仍然有所增長。在保險結果範圍內。

So we are remixing the portfolio. We've seen and reported over the last -- over the course of 2023, a more moderated pace of top line growth. And we're focused on bottom line profitability so that may continue to be the case, and we'll continue to remix the portfolio. But we've been doing some of that already.

所以我們正在重新組合投資組合。我們在過去看到並報告了 2023 年的收入成長速度更加溫和。我們專注於底線盈利能力，因此情況可能會繼續如此，我們將繼續重新組合投資組合。但我們已經在做一些這樣的事情了。

As far as changes in underwriting, practices, if you will, we really are taking a very targeted view within each of our product areas and it's a tailored approach with regards to what we're doing. So we have some classes. That are all in segments within our portfolios that we're going to exit or we have exited altogether. We've got areas where we'll take subclasses or subsegments and reduce our writings. Clearly, we'll push rate. Clearly, we'll address wordings in terms and conditions. We're looking at attachment points. We're looking at limits profiles. We're looking at geography mix. A lot of what we're doing is going to be about portfolio balance and overall portfolio management. So a lot that's happening across the insurance operation right now.

至於承保、實踐方面的變化，如果你願意的話，我們確實在每個產品領域採取了非常有針對性的觀點，這是針對我們正在做的事情量身定制的方法。所以我們有一些課程。這些都是我們將要退出或已經完全退出的投資組合中的部分。我們在某些​​領域將進行子類或子分段並減少我們的著作。顯然，我們將提高利率。顯然，我們將解決條款和條件中的措辭。我們正在尋找附著點。我們正在研究限制設定檔。我們正在考慮地理組合。我們正在做的很多事情都是關於投資組合平衡和整體投資組合管理。目前保險業務發生了很多事情。

Got it. That's helpful. I guess just given those mix changes, should we expect the current accident year margins, I guess, to kind of look very different next year? Or I guess they've moved around each quarter? Should the remixing be a help or kind of more flattish or like we've seen looking at (inaudible) ?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想，考慮到這些組合變化，我們是否應該預期目前的事故年利潤率明年看起來會非常不同？或者我猜他們每季都會搬家？混音是否應該有所幫助，或者更加扁平化，或者像我們所看到的那樣（聽不清楚）？

Yes, more difficult to talk about a trend. As Tom mentioned, it takes a while for things to earn through in insurance, right? So heading into a year, the portfolio an earned premium basis is already sort of on risk and working its way through. So any actions that we have taken recently or we take here shortly, it will take a little while to earn through.

是的，談論趨勢更困難。正如湯姆所提到的，保險業需要一段時間才能賺錢，對嗎？因此，進入一年後，以賺取保費為基礎的投資組合已經具有一定的風險並且正在發揮作用。因此，我們最近採取的或短期內採取的任何行動都需要一段時間才能實現。

That being said, everything that we are doing right now is focused on being accretive to earnings as we move forward. So I expect that over time, what we'll see is an improved profitability and improved margins on the current portfolio.

話雖這麼說，我們現在所做的一切都是為了在我們前進的過程中增加收益。因此，我預計隨著時間的推移，我們將看到當前投資組合的獲利能力和利潤率有所提高。

Got it. Just one quick one. On the credit losses from the intellectual property exposure. Is that in the loss ratio or the expense ratio in insurance?

知道了。就快一點吧。關於智慧財產權暴露造成的信用損失。這是保險的損失率還是費用率？

That's in the loss ratio. Currently in the loss ratio.

這就是損失率。目前處於虧損狀態。

We'll move next to Mark Hughes at Truist Securities.

我們將接聽 Truist 證券公司的 Mark Hughes 的演講。

Yes. Is there a, say, an interim combined ratio target for 2024 that you might be willing to share, understanding that it takes a while to fully implement these steps and make progress. But is there an interim target?

是的。您是否願意分享 2024 年的臨時綜合比率目標，因為您知道完全實施這些步驟並取得進展需要一段時間。但有沒有一個臨時目標呢？

Yes, Mark, it's Tom. Better.

是的，馬克，是湯姆。更好的。

Can you quantify better?

你能更好地量化嗎？

No.

不。

I like better. But any numbers? Yes?

我比較喜歡。但有數字嗎？是的？

Let's get better and then we'll talk about it.

讓我們變得更好，然後我們再討論它。

Yes. Understood. And then you talked about the GL and you focus on the construction issue. Are you seeing some inflation or lengthening of tail outside of construction? Is it a broader issue in GL?

是的。明白了。然後您談到了 GL，您重點關注了構建問題。您是否在施工之外看到了尾部的膨脹或加長？這是 GL 中更廣泛的問題嗎？

Well, I think that the part associated with the lengthening of the tail is a bit specific to the construction defect portion within our contractors on both the primary and excess basis. So that's a pretty specific point there.

嗯，我認為與尾部加長相關的部分有點特定於我們承包商在主要和超額基礎上的施工缺陷部分。這是一個非常具體的點。

With regards to the effects more widely around inflation, be it economic inflation or social inflation, that happens across, particularly in U.S. logs. That happens in a number of areas as we've been talking about. But again, more pronounced in the general liability and professional liability lines that we've been speaking to over the course of the year.

至於更廣泛的通膨影響，無論是經濟通膨還是社會通膨，這種情況都會發生，尤其是在美國原木中。正如我們一直在談論的，這種情況發生在許多領域。但同樣，這一點在我們一年來一直討論的一般責任和專業責任方面更為明顯。

You mentioned that you're having success in pushing for rate where you need it. Is that to say pricing in those lines is accelerating? Do you see that across the board? Or maybe just within your own book.

您提到您在推動需要的利率方面取得了成功。這是否意味著這些產品線的定價正在加速？您是否全面看到這一點？或者也許只是在你自己的書中。

We'll see sort of obviously have the year trends in development, and we very much have the intention in those pockets, particularly in the casualty that I'm mentioning the rate is needed, and we've had success in pushing rate. I don't think we get all the way there overnight. And I think it has to be something that is sustained. I also don't think that, that is unique to sort of Markel circumstances. I think casualty is getting a lot of coverage around the sort of trends and the pervasive nature of social inflation and some of what we've experienced ourselves, I think, is being shared within the industry.

我們將明顯看到今年的發展趨勢，我們非常有這些意圖，特別是在我提到需要利率的傷亡方面，而且我們在推動利率方面取得了成功。我認為我們不可能一夜之間就到達那裡。我認為它必須是可持續的。我也不認為這對馬克爾的情況來說是獨一無二的。我認為，關於社會通貨膨脹的趨勢和普遍性，傷亡事故得到了很多報道，我認為，我們自己經歷的一些事情正在行業內分享。

So I would expect that it will continue to be -- will continue to be the opportunity to push on rate within casualty lines in '24.

因此，我預計這將繼續成為 24 年在傷亡線內提高死亡率的機會。

Yes. And then when you think about some of these inflation factors, could you maybe assume that they would get better? And since they didn't, you had some adverse -- or did they actually deteriorate just thinking about the kind of broader reported inflation. Supposedly, that's key. But does that -- is that having a delayed impact on your own loss trends as you're seeing them?

是的。然後，當您考慮其中一些通膨因素時，您是否可以假設它們會變得更好？既然沒有，你就會遇到一些不利的情況——或者說，只要考慮到更廣泛的報告通膨情況，它們實際上就惡化了。據說，這是關鍵。但是，正如您所看到的那樣，這是否會對您自己的損失趨勢產生延遲影響？

Yes. I mean, look, inflation is a component as a broad statement, Mark. But what I would suggest is that in the fourth quarter, we really took a far more extensive review, right? And we got our leaders across underwriting and claims and actuarial. We aided ourselves with third-party experts gaining insights and broader industry data for purposes of comparability, and we did a much more data-intensive exercise. So we are doing a deeper review into our underlying books and trends to get better insights around the causes of the adverse development.

是的。我的意思是，馬克，通貨膨脹是一個廣泛的陳述的一個組成部分。但我建議的是，在第四季度，我們確實進行了更廣泛的審查，對吧？我們在承保、索賠和精算方面都有我們的領導者。我們幫助第三方專家獲取見解和更廣泛的行業數據以實現可比性，並且我們進行了數據密集程度更高的練習。因此，我們正在對我們的基礎書籍和趨勢進行更深入的審查，以更好地了解不利發展的原因。

So as a kind of an example, Ron mentioned, we start segmenting out our contractors portions of our books. We then further segment construction defect claims trends and data from nonconstruction defect. We looked at practice exposures versus project exposures. We looked at wording, claims handling practices, various assumptions we're making. So all that to give you a sense of the depth and the robustness of the review that we had. Undoubtedly, the rising level of cost to settle and adjust claims is linked to inflation in all exports. So we're seeing that.

羅恩提到，舉個例子，我們開始將書中的承包商部分細分。然後，我們進一步細分建築缺陷索賠趨勢和非建築缺陷數據。我們比較了實踐暴露與項目暴露。我們研究了措辭、索賠處理實務以及我們所做的各種假設。所有這些都是為了讓您感受到我們審查的深度和穩健性。毫無疑問，解決和調整索賠的成本水準不斷上升與所有出口的通貨膨脹有關。所以我們看到了這一點。

But there are other aspects that give us -- that led to some of the reserve adjustments we made in the fourth quarter, but also, I think, importantly, lead us to have a lot more confidence that we understand the recent experience and that we're in a position now to put that adverse loss experience and trend behind us as we move forward.

但還有其他方面給我們帶來了——這導致了我們在第四季度做出的一些準備金調整，但我認為，重要的是，這也讓我們更有信心，我們了解最近的經歷，而我們現在我們能夠在前進的過程中將不利的損失經驗和趨勢拋在腦後。

And let me jump in. This is Tom. And Mark, and this is really for everybody. I want to make sure we're not driving by looking at the hood ornament. And we keep our eyes on the horizon a bit here. So obviously, we're talking a lot about the insurance results. This is a Markel Group conference call. It's Markel Group that is -- what you own shares in the book value per share, which, again, is dinged by amortization, and it's dinged by the unrealized losses in the bond portfolio, both of which I would argue were not real. It was up 17%, last year. It's up 11% over the last 5 years and the actions that I think if our roles were reversed and you were managing this business, where you would be directing capital when we've directed capital towards investments that show the fruits of that.

讓我插話一下。這是湯姆。馬克，這確實適合每個人。我想確保我們開車時不會看引擎蓋裝飾。我們在這裡稍微關註一下地平線。顯然，我們談了很多關於保險結果的問題。這是馬克爾集團的電話會議。這就是馬克爾集團——你所擁有的股票的每股帳面價值，同樣受到攤銷的影響，而且受到債券投資組合中未實現損失的影響，我認為這兩者都不是真實的。去年增長了 17%。在過去 5 年裡，它成長了 11%，我認為如果我們的角色互換，由你來管理這項業務，當我們將資本引導到能顯示其成果的投資時，你將引導資本。

We've directed capital towards ventures, which show the fruits of that. We've paired and pruned inside the insurance engine. And I think you'll see the fruits of that in the fullness of time. And we're dividing that pie by fewer shares. So that's -- remain somewhat aware of the horizon as well as the hood ornament.

我們已將資本投入到風險投資中，這已顯示出其成果。我們在保險引擎內部進行了配對和修剪。我想，隨著時間的推移，你會看到它的成果。我們正在將這塊蛋糕分成更少的份額。所以，對地平線和引擎蓋裝飾保持一定的了解。

We'll take our next question from Andrew Andersen at Jefferies.

我們將接受傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 安德魯安德森 (Andrew Andersen) 的下一個問題。

Could you provide a bit more color on to what loss trend you're looking to in some of these casualty lines? And if that's going to be higher in 2024 versus how 2023 shaked out? I'm just trying to think about the confidence in the more recent accident years, which also faced some pressure in the opportunity for growth here.

您能否提供更多資訊來說明您在其中一些傷亡事故中尋找的損失趨勢？與 2023 年相比，2024 年這數字是否會更高？我只是想想想最近幾年發生事故的信心，這也面臨一些成長機會的壓力。

Sure. So I mean as far as sort of trend assumptions heading into I think if anything, trend either holds up or moderate slightly, relative to '23 assumptions. We have a very broad portfolio. We're 100 major product lines. We write lots of different segments and classes all across the globe. So there's no sort of simple way to break through the trend assumptions down. But in -- as you'd expect in longer-tail cash-driven oriented lines, 5%, 6% to 8% is not an uncommon trend assumption. And in each of the cases, we look at our portfolios with regards to rate adequacy. We look at the pricing that we're obtaining relative to that trend. And we all level that into our loss selections.

當然。因此，我的意思是，就趨勢假設而言，我認為，相對於 23 年的假設，趨勢要么保持不變，要么略有放緩。我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合。我們有 100 條主要產品線。我們在全球範圍內編寫了許多不同的部分和課程。因此，沒有簡單的方法可以突破下跌趨勢假設。但正如您在長尾現金驅動型產品線中所預期的那樣，5%、6% 至 8% 並不是一個不常見的趨勢假設。在每種情況下，我們都會審視我們的投資組合的利率充足性。我們會根據該趨勢查看我們獲得的定價。我們都將其納入我們的損失選擇中。

And just backing up on the reserves, you had a charge fourth quarter of last year, movement on 9 months '23, another charge fourth quarter of this year. Has the team evaluated doing an LPT in the past to create some finality to this?

就儲備金而言，去年第四季有一項費用，23 年 9 月的變動，今年第四季又一項費用。團隊過去是否評估過進行 LPT 來確定這一點？

We have not done anything with regards to LPT or adverse development covers, and I won't sort of comment more broadly than that.

我們還沒有對 LPT 或不利發展保障採取任何行動，我不會對此進行更廣泛的評論。

And maybe a few more questions here. Can you mentioned litigation finance and casualty lines and how it's affected the loss trends where you raised your reserves. You did kind of just mention perhaps trend moderates slightly in '24, but are you kind of thinking of the litigation finance environment slows down in the coming years? Or do you see that accelerating?

也許還有幾個問題。您能否提到訴訟財務和傷亡額度以及它如何影響您提高準備金的損失趨勢。您確實提到了 24 年趨勢可能略有放緩，但您是否認為未來幾年訴訟金融環境會放緩？還是你認為這種趨勢正在加速嗎？

Yes. Generally speaking, I think a lot of what we've been talking about in our challenge with regards to recent social inflation trends. So the cost to adjust and settle claims, prevalence of litigation funding, the aggressiveness of the plaintiffs for the sentiment of juries, all those sort of things, I don't necessarily have a reason to believe that, that abates anytime in the near term. So what we have to do is appropriately price our portfolio and ensure that we've got enough diversification and resiliency in the portfolios to stay a step ahead.

是的。總的來說，我認為我們在挑戰中討論的許多內容都與最近的社會通膨趨勢有關。因此，調整和解決索賠的成本、訴訟資金的盛行、原告對陪審團情緒的積極性，所有這些事情，我不一定有理由相信，這種情況在短期內會減弱。因此，我們要做的就是對我們的投資組合進行適當的定價，並確保我們的投資組合有足夠的多元化和彈性，以保持領先一步。

And that's part of what mentioning the fact that we've taken a more cautious view on the more recent years to build in to attempt, to build in a greater margin of safety around those concerns. In line with our core philosophy of being more likely redundant than deficient. So we'll see how that plays out. But we have to be cautious in the sort of claims and litigation environment.

這就是提到這樣一個事實的一部分：近年來，我們採取了更謹慎的態度，試圖圍繞這些問題建立更大的安全邊際。符合我們的核心理念：冗餘多於缺陷。所以我們將看看結果如何。但我們必須在這種索賠和訴訟環境中保持謹慎。

And maybe what's a good way to think about the reserves and the charges over the last couple of years. Has this -- the bulk of this been on discontinued business for the insurance segment? Or is it kind of a mix of continuing, but we're making changes to attachments, pricing, et cetera?

也許思考過去幾年的儲備金和費用是一個好方法。這其中大部分是關於保險部門已終止的業務嗎？還是繼續進行，但我們正在對附件、定價等進行更改？

It's a mix. So we had an example within reinsurance that Brian alluded to, it's associated with public entity business that we wrote in 2019 and prior that we discontinued at that time. We have aspects of our portfolio that are ongoing that we're trimming and rehabbing and trying to get right. We've got aspects within the portfolio that we're exiting either classes or subsegments. So I mean it's a bit of everything across the portfolio.

這是一個混合。因此，布萊恩提到了再保險領域的一個例子，它與我們在 2019 年以及之前我們停止撰寫的公共實體業務相關。我們正在對產品組合中的某些方面進行調整和修復，並努力做到正確。我們在產品組合中的某些方面正在退出類別或子細分市場。所以我的意思是它是整個投資組合中的一切。

We'll move next to Scott Heleniak at RBC.

我們將搬到加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Scott Heleniak 旁邊。

Just to follow up a little bit on that on some of the classes you've exited so far. I'm just curious how much of that you think you'll be able to fix with rate -- with higher rates and improving terms and conditions versus actually exiting or reducing exposure a lot. I don't know if you can get any color or any sense on that, just charging higher rates and changing terms and conditions versus having to exit or (inaudible) Significantly?

只是為了對您到目前為止已經退出的一些課程進行一些跟進。我只是好奇你認為你能夠透過利率來解決多少問題——透過更高的利率和改善條款和條件，而不是實際退出或大量減少風險。我不知道你是否能對此有任何看法或任何感覺，只是收取更高的費率並改變條款和條件，而不是必須退出或（聽不清楚）顯著？

Yes. I mean I can't put any specifics or quantification around that. I gave you an example earlier to say, suggest in the fourth quarter and some of the lines at a larger sort of product line level that we shed over $100 million of premium in those lines that were more challenged. Where we were concerned about rate adequacy. And obviously, we grew more than that across everything else in the portfolio. We will continue to do that.

是的。我的意思是我無法對此進行任何具體說明或量化。我之前給你們舉了一個例子，建議在第四季度和更大範圍的產品線級別的一些產品線中，我們在那些面臨更大挑戰的產品線中削減了超過 1 億美元的溢價。我們擔心利率充足性。顯然，我們在投資組合中的其他所有方面的成長都超過了這一成長。我們將繼續這樣做。

So we are focused within every facet of our insurance operations of ensuring that we are -- have a healthy portfolio. That it's rate adequate and that we're earning appropriate returns on capital. And I will report to you each and every 90 days how we're making progress in that space. But I can't sort of simplistically say, this is how it will break down. We're working hard.

因此，我們專注於保險業務的各個方面，以確保我們擁有健康的投資組合。它的利率足夠，我們正在賺取適當的資本回報。我將每隔 90 天向您報告我們在該領域的進展。但我不能簡單地說，這就是它會崩潰的方式。我們正在努力工作。

Yes. That's fair. And then on the insurance side, you called out personal lines and property being a growth area. Can you talk about the kind of what the growth rates there were last couple of quarters and particularly Q4. And whether -- is that -- are you running that business mostly E&S admitted where you're seeing the opportunity? Or is it a mix?

是的。這還算公平。然後在保險方面，您指出個人保險和財產保險是一個成長領域。您能談談過去幾個季度，特別是第四季度的成長率嗎？以及，您是否正在經營這項業務（主要是 E&S 承認的業務），您看到了機會？還是混合的？

It is a mix across the various segments of our portfolio where we're growing. So I'd mentioned personal lines. I mentioned property, inland marine programs business, our binding operations, workers' comp, surety, a number of lines in our professional space. So you've got U.S., you've got international, you've got alternative retail and wholesale or admitted and nonadmitted business, it's a mix. But in the spaces like, for example, property, marine, personal lines, those will be more weighted towards E&S binding. More weighted towards E&S.

它是我們正在發展的投資組合各個領域的混合體。所以我提到了個人台詞。我提到了房地產、內陸海洋專案業務、我們的綁定業務、工人補償、擔保、我們專業領域的許多業務。所以你有美國，你有國際，你有替代零售和批發或承認和非承認的業務，這是一個混合體。但在財產、海洋、個人等領域，這些領域將更傾向於 E&S 綁定。更注重 E&S。

Yes. Okay. And then just one for Tom here. On Markel Ventures, you mentioned acquisition, Costa made one in January. So that's definitely nice to see. Can you talk about the pipeline there for Markel Ventures and whether you expect to see more deal activity this year?

是的。好的。然後這裡只給湯姆一份。關於 Markel Ventures，您提到了收購，Costa 在 1 月進行了一次收購。所以這絕對是很高興看到。您能否談談 Markel Ventures 的籌備情況以及您是否預計今年會看到更多交易活動？

I would guess, since the deal activity last year was 0, the odds have been more than that are pretty good. Our phone is starting to ring. I mean there have been some disruptions in financial markets from time to time. The fact that interest rates exist, changes the financing market for other folks out there. So we're getting more inbound phone calls than we did any time in the last 12 or 18 months.

我猜想，由於去年的交易活動是 0，所以超過這個數字的可能性就相當不錯了。我們的電話開始響了。我的意思是金融市場時不時會出現一些混亂。利率的存在這一事實改變了其他人的融資市場。因此，我們收到的來電比過去 12 或 18 個月中的任何時候都多。

(Operator Instructions) We'll move next to Josh Hill at CapTrust Financial Advisors.

（操作員說明）我們將前往 CapTrust Financial Advisors 的 Josh Hill。

First off, great job with ventures and investments. Just a quick question on insurance. curious to get your opinion on whether or not the target laid out in the 2020 shareholder letter of "10-5-1". So that $10 billion target for premiums, if any of that target is kind of what's coming back to causing some of these issues.

首先，在創投方面做得很好。只是一個關於保險的簡單問題。想聽聽您對2020年「10-5-1」股東信中所列目標是否達成的意見。因此，100 億美元的保費目標（如果該目標中的任何一個是導致其中一些問題的原因的話）。

Yes. Thanks for the question. I don't believe that that's the case. The -- when we talked about "10-5-1" is an idea within our global insurance operations. Its roughly to suggest what would need to be true if we were to aspire to double the size of our insurance platform at that time across all facets and do so at a level that was contributing meaningfully to the bottom line profits. The suggested growth rate there really isn't different than the growth rate that we had experienced over the past several decades as an organization.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我不相信是這樣的。當我們談論「10-5-1」時，這是我們全球保險業務中的一個想法。它粗略地表明，如果我們希望當時在各個方面將我們的保險平台規模擴大一倍，並在對底線利潤做出有意義貢獻的水平上實現這一目標，那麼需要做些什麼。這裡建議的成長率其實與我們作為一個組織過去幾十年所經歷的成長率沒有什麼不同。

So I don't think that, that put an unhealthy expectation around growth. I do think linked to that, we said what would need to be true with regards to product, talent, technology, to data, to geography, to various offerings, our trading relationships. So there are a lot of aspects of what would need to be true to be that sort of insurance organization. And we continue to work very hard at building out the breadth of specialization and diversification across the platform. I think you will have gotten a sense from the call today. There's a lot of things that we've done, and we've done very well.

所以我不認為這會對成長產生不健康的期望。我確實認為與此相關的是，我們說過在產品、人才、技術、數據、地理、各種產品、我們的貿易關係方面需要做到什麼。因此，要成為這樣的保險組織，需要滿足許多方面的要求。我們將繼續努力建立整個平台的專業化和多元化廣度。我想您今天的電話會有所了解。我們做了很多事情，而且做得很好。

Fortunately, there are some things that have come back over the course of 10 years. I mean a lot of the '19 and prior, that portfolio already existed prior to us making reference to 1051 objective. We could not have contemplated at that time a pandemic and how sort of inflation what would occur on the inflation side, both social and economic.

幸運的是，有些東西在10年的時間裡又回來了。我的意思是，很多 19 年及之前的產品組合在我們提到 1051 目標之前就已經存在了。我們當時不可能考慮到一場大流行病，以及社會和經濟方面的通貨膨脹會發生什麼樣的通貨膨脹。

So the world moved out a little bit since we had that target. But our idea is around what we aspire to be and being ambitious as an organization to be better for our customers. To be better for our employees to create winning outcomes for our shareholders, those ideas remain.

自從我們有了這個目標以來，世界就發生了一些變化。但我們的想法是圍繞著我們的願望和雄心勃勃的組織，為我們的客戶提供更好的服務。為了更好地讓我們的員工為股東創造雙贏的成果，這些想法仍然存在。

And let me jump in here. This is Tom. I want to make one factual statement about that. Nobody's incentive compensation was tied to the tenth. Nobody, not mine, not Jeremy, it's not anybody in the organization. Every bit of incentive compensation is tied to profitability over time. rather than growth without profitability.

讓我跳到這裡。這是湯姆。我想對此做一個事實陳述。沒有人的激勵薪酬與第十掛鉤。沒有人，不是我的，不是傑瑞米，不是組織中的任何人。隨著時間的推移，每一點激勵補償都與獲利能力掛鉤。而不是沒有獲利能力的成長。

So I know there's been some heartburn in the investment community about that. We hear you, but I do want to -- at least state the fact that no incentive compensation was designed to do the tenth.

所以我知道投資界對此有些不滿。我們聽到了你的聲音，但我確實想——至少聲明一個事實，即沒有為第十個目標設計激勵性薪酬。

We'll go next to Drew Estes at Banyan Capital.

接下來我們將採訪 Banyan Capital 的 Drew Estes。

This one is for Tom. A great attribute of Markel is its optionality and capital allocation. So given the performance in insurance, but the strength in ventures, how are you thinking about investing the incremental dollar? Do you prefer an investment in ventures right now until you can get insurance performing better?

這是給湯姆的。 Markel 的一大特點是其選擇性和資本配置。因此，考慮到保險業的表現以及創投的實力，您如何考慮投資增量資金？在保險表現較好之前，您現在是否更願意投資創投？

Drew, I appreciate the question, and I do think that speaks to one of the underlying strengths of Markel. And again, everybody is here working hard and gnashing of teeth going on about some stuff, economically, it was a pretty good year for Markel for exactly the reasons you speak of.

德魯，我很欣賞這個問題，我確實認為這說明了馬克爾的潛在優勢之一。再說一次，每個人都在努力工作，咬牙切齒地做著一些事情，從經濟上來說，這對馬克爾來說是相當不錯的一年，正是你所說的原因。

Every incremental dollar is invested with the thought of, where will it best be treated, where will we get the highest return. So we look at insurance, we look at investments. We look at Markel Ventures, and we start with a blank sheet of paper that would -- and we also look at our own shares and said we will that capital be treated best. And that's consistently been the case, and we'll continue to be that way.

每增加一美元，我們都會考慮如何更好地對待它，我們將在哪裡獲得最高的回報。所以我們看看保險，我們看看投資。讓我們來看看 Markel Ventures，我們從一張白紙開始，我們也看看我們自己的股票，並表示我們將給予資本最好的對待。情況一直如此，我們將繼續如此。

We'll take a follow-up from Charlie Lederer at Citi.

我們將聽取花旗集團查理·萊德勒 (Charlie Lederer) 的後續報導。

Just one follow-up. Since you took the charges on the reinsurance side to reflect your insurance experience, could you talk about your conversations with your CMs? Have they reflected some of these changes? Or do you anticipate that being a story for them or maybe the industry near term?

只是一個後續行動。由於您在再保險方面收取的費用是為了反映您的保險經驗，您能談談您與 CM 的對話嗎？他們是否反映了其中一些變化？或者您預計這會成為他們或行業近期的故事？

Yes, that's a good point, Charlie. So in the fourth quarter, the increase in reserves that we took, particularly in the general liability space within our Reinsurance segment was not driven by underlying cedent reporting and incurred activity, but more so in part because of the findings and observations that we had within our insurance book and in contemplation of the risk that some of those things could exist within the underlying cedents reporting and incurred loss activity in time.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點，查理。因此，在第四季度，我們所採取的準備金增加，特別是在我們的再保險部門內的一般責任空間中，並不是由基本的分出報告和發生的活動驅動的，但更多的是因為我們在再保險部門的調查結果和觀察結果我們的保險帳簿，並考慮到其中一些事情可能存在於基礎分出公司及時報告和發生損失活動中的風險。

So again, I would say that was kind of a cautious approach to ensure that we're building an appropriate margin of safety be more likely redundant than deficient within the reinsurance book versus specific claims reporting activity in the period.

因此，我想說，這是一種謹慎的方法，以確保我們正在建立適當的安全邊際，與該時期的特定索賠報告活動相比，再保險帳簿中的安全邊際更有可能是多餘的，而不是不足的。

And we'll move next to Andrew Anderson at Jefferies.

我們將轉到傑富瑞的安德魯安德森 (Andrew Anderson) 旁邊。

On the insurance underlying loss ratio a little bit of noise this year between the best 2, some of the collateral protection. I think in the first quarter, you had moved some picks related to bank activity. So if I put it all together, relative to the reported underlying of $64 million, perhaps 2 points of onetime noise. Is that a fair way to think about it?

關於保險標的損失比率今年最好的2之間有點噪音，一些抵押品保護。我認為在第一季度，您已經移動了一些與銀行活動相關的選擇。因此，如果我把所有這些放在一起，相對於報告的 6400 萬美元的基礎資產，也許是 2 個百分點的一次性噪音。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？

Yes, I think you're thinking about it right. There was -- there's definitely some noise like you said, the intellectual property CPI and the credit losses we experienced there, specific banking losses we recognized in the first quarter, those sort of one-offs did contribute between 1 or 2 points to that trend. And then clearly the -- which we talked about throughout the year, higher attritional loss ratios across the cash, the general liability and professional liability lines being another driver.

是的，我認為你的想法是正確的。正如您所說，肯定有一些噪音，知識產權CPI 和我們在那裡經歷的信貸損失，我們在第一季度認識到的特定銀行損失，這些一次性事件確實對這一趨勢做出了1 到2 個點的貢獻。然後很明顯，我們全年都在討論，現金損耗率較高，一般責任和專業責任線是另一個驅動因素。

And I suppose, business being written for the longer tail lines right now is already reflecting your increased view of loss trend for 2024?

我想，現在為更長的尾線編寫的業務已經反映出您對 2024 年損失趨勢的看法增加？

That's right.

這是正確的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回湯姆·蓋納（Tom Gayner）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you very much. We appreciate your support. We look forward to checking in with you in 90 days. Be well.

非常感謝。我們感謝您的支持。我們期待 90 天內與您聯繫。祝你一切順利。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。