Markel Group Inc (MKL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Markel 集團 2023 年第二季度電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

During the call today, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including under the caption Safe Harbor and Cautionary Statements and Risk Factors.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於當前有關各種已知和未知風險的假設和意見。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息包含在我們最新的10-K 表年度報告和10-Q 表季度報告中，包括“安全港”和“安全港”標題下的信息。警示聲明和風險因素。

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call today. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for these measures in our most recent Form 10-Q. Our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q can be found on our website at www.mklgroup.com in the Investor Relations section. Please note, this event is being recorded.

我們還可能在今天的電話會議上討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們最新的表格 10-Q 中找到最直接可比的 GAAP 衡量標準以及這些衡量標準的 GAAP 調節表。我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格可以在我們網站 www.mklgroup.com 的投資者關係部分找到。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給首席執行官湯姆·蓋納 (Tom Gayner)。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you. From Richmond, Virginia. I'd like to welcome you to the Markel Group's second quarter conference call. This is indeed Tom Gayner, has served as your CEO, and it is my pleasure to welcome you to the call this morning. I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Teri Gendron; and our President of Insurance, Jeremy Noble, to share our results with you and to answer your questions. We are very pleased with the results we're reporting to you today. Each of our 3 engines: Insurance, Markel Ventures and Investments produced positive thrust during the first half of 2023.

早上好。謝謝。來自弗吉尼亞州里士滿。歡迎您參加馬克爾集團第二季度電話會議。我確實是湯姆·蓋納（Tom Gayner），曾擔任你們的首席執行官，我很高興歡迎您今天早上參加電話會議。我們的首席財務官 Teri Gendron 也加入了我的行列。我們的保險總裁 Jeremy Noble 將與您分享我們的結果並回答您的問題。我們對今天向您報告的結果感到非常滿意。我們的三個引擎：保險、Markel Ventures 和 Investments 在 2023 年上半年都產生了積極的推動力。

In our insurance operations, we enjoyed double-digit growth in earned premiums and solid underwriting profitability with a combined ratio of 93% for the first half of 2023. Importantly, we report those results with an ongoing commitment to putting up insurance reserves in a way, which we believe will be more likely to prove redundant than deficient. You can see that commitment through our years of reporting favorable loss development in the vast majority of the times when we report to you each quarter's results. This quarter continues to show that same pattern of favorable development. There's unrelenting commitment at the Markel Group to our culture based on our values. The conservatism we embrace in setting reserves demonstrates our words and action. Both Teri and Jeremy will provide more details on our insurance results and their comments.

在我們的保險業務中，我們的保費收入實現了兩位數的增長，承保盈利能力穩健，2023 年上半年的綜合成本率為93%。重要的是，我們在報告這些結果時始終致力於以某種方式建立保險準備金，我們認為這更有可能被證明是多餘的而不是不足的。當我們向您報告每個季度的業績時，您可以從我們多年來報告有利的虧損發展中看到這一承諾。本季度繼續呈現出同樣的良好發展模式。 Markel 集團堅持不懈地致力於基於我們的價值觀的文化。我們在設定儲備時所秉持的保守主義體現了我們的言行。泰瑞和傑里米都將提供有關我們的保險結果的更多詳細信息以及他們的評論。

Markel Ventures produced excellent results during the first half of 2023. Revenues rose to $2.5 billion compared to $2.3 billion a year ago, and EBITDA reached $317 million versus $250 million in the first half of 2022. It's worth pointing out that this growth in revenues and profitability was largely organic. These are the results of the existing businesses as there were no major acquisitions at Markel Ventures. We did get to apply some capital at a couple of our existing businesses. They added to their businesses with acquisitions of companies in their respective industries, and we love it when that happens. We also continued the ongoing process of purchasing certain noncontrolling interests as originally planned in the original acquisitions.

Markel Ventures 在2023 年上半年取得了出色的業績。收入從一年前的23 億美元增至25 億美元，EBITDA 達到3.17 億美元，而2022 年上半年為2.5 億美元。值得指出的是，收入的增長和盈利能力很大程度上是有機的。這些是現有業務的結果，因為 Markel Ventures 沒有進行重大收購。我們確實在一些現有業務上投入了一些資金。他們通過收購各自行業的公司來擴大自己的業務，我們喜歡這種情況發生。我們還繼續按照最初收購計劃繼續購買某些非控股權益。

Investments also provided excellent returns. Recurring investment income rose 74% to $329 million versus $189 million in the first half of 2022. Our publicly traded equity portfolio produced 6-month returns of 11.9%, while this trails the white hot return of 17% posted by the S&P 500. We remain 100 basis points ahead of that index for over 30 years. We don't usually move ahead during sprints, but we do tend to outlast the competition when it comes to marathons.

投資也帶來了豐厚的回報。經常性投資收入增長74%，達到3.29 億美元，而2022 年上半年為1.89 億美元。我們公開交易的股票投資組合的6 個月回報率為11.9%，而這落後於標準普爾500 指數公佈的17% 的白熱化回報率。 30多年來一直領先該指數100個基點。我們通常不會在短跑比賽中取得領先，但在馬拉鬆比賽中我們往往會比競爭對手堅持得更久。

During the first half of 2023, we repurchased $187 million of Markel Group shares. Last year, we repurchased $126 million in the same time period. We also made net purchases of publicly traded equity securities of $155 million compared to $63 million a year ago. The tax-efficient net unrealized gain on our equity portfolio now stands at $5.4 billion compared to $4.2 billion a year ago. While we, as a public company, always provide you with the split times quarterly results, we are running a marathon, not a series of sprints. The split times that we are reporting to you today look good to me as the head coach, but I think these results demonstrate that we remain on track to produce excellent marathon results as we have over long periods before.

2023 年上半年，我們回購了價值 1.87 億美元的 Markel Group 股票。去年同期，我們回購了 1.26 億美元。我們還淨購買了 1.55 億美元的公開交易股權證券，而一年前為 6300 萬美元。我們股票投資組合的節稅未實現淨收益目前為 54 億美元，而一年前為 42 億美元。雖然我們作為一家上市公司，總是為您提供分時段的季度業績，但我們正在跑一場馬拉松，而不是一系列的衝刺。作為主教練，我們今天向你們報告的分段時間成績對我來說看起來不錯，但我認為這些結果表明我們仍然有望像以前很長一段時間一樣取得出色的馬拉鬆成績。

To put some actual numbers on that and quantify that, I remind you that we consistently use rolling 5-year measurement intervals to gauge longer-term progress at the Markel Group. The last 5 years included some of the most difficult insurance and investment markets we've ever faced. The last 5 years also included the effects of some acquisitions and expansions into new businesses, which did not go as well as we would have hoped it first. Despite that, we've made meaningful progress. Please consider the following: Revenues in the first 6 months of 2018 were $3.6 billion. Revenues in the first 6 months of 2023, 5 years later, came in at $7.8 billion, an increase of 119%. Underwriting profits in the first 6 months of 2018 were $209 million. Underwriting profits in the first 6 months of 2023 were $264 million, an increase of 27%.

為了給出一些實際數字並對其進行量化，我提醒您，我們一貫使用滾動 5 年測量間隔來衡量 Markel 集團的長期進展。過去五年是我們所面臨的一些最困難的保險和投資市場。過去五年還包括一些收購和擴張新業務的影響，但這些影響並沒有我們最初希望的那麼好。儘管如此，我們還是取得了有意義的進展。請考慮以下因素： 2018 年前 6 個月的收入為 36 億美元。 5 年後，2023 年前 6 個月的收入達到 78 億美元，增長了 119%。 2018年前6個月的承保利潤為2.09億美元。 2023年前6個月的承保利潤為2.64億美元，增長27%。

Recurring investment income for the first 6 months of 2018 was $213 million. Recurring investment income in the first 6 months of 2023 was $329 million, an increase of 54%. The EBITDA of Markel Ventures in the first 6 months of 2018 was $82 million. The EBITDA of Markel Ventures in the first 6 months of 2023 was $317 million, an increase of 284%. The total number of shares of Markel outstanding 5 years ago was 13.9 million. The total number of shares of Markel today is 13.3 million, a decrease of 4.3%.

2018 年前 6 個月的經常性投資收入為 2.13 億美元。 2023年前6個月的經常性投資收入為3.29億美元，增長54%。 Markel Ventures 2018 年前 6 個月的 EBITDA 為 8200 萬美元。 Markel Ventures 2023年前6個月的EBITDA為3.17億美元，增長284%。 5年前Markel已發行股票總數為1390萬股。 Markel今日總股數為1330萬股，減少4.3%。

The price per share 5 years ago on June 30, 2018, was $1,084. Five years later, the share price stood at $1,385, an increase of 28%. This combination of facts, along with many other factors, seems to have created a situation for many of the indicators of the economic value of Markel Group seem to have appreciated at a faster rate than that of the share price. In response to those circumstances, we've repurchased shares in recent years.

5 年前（2018 年 6 月 30 日）的每股價格為 1,084 美元。五年後，股價升至 1,385 美元，上漲 28%。這些事實加上許多其他因素，似乎造成了馬克爾集團許多經濟價值指標的升值速度似乎快於股價的情況。為了應對這些情況，我們近年來回購了股票。

Additionally, our rate of repurchases was higher in the first half of 2023 than any other period. It's also a matter of public record that in 5 of the last 6 quarters I personally taken money out of my pocket to purchase some Markel Group shares.

此外，2023 年上半年我們的回購率高於任何其他時期。這也是一個公開記錄的問題，在過去 6 個季度中的 5 個季度中，我個人從口袋裡掏錢購買了一些 Markel Group 股票。

Now I'll turn things over to our CFO, Teri Gendron, to provide you with some details from the quarter and then to Jeremy Noble to discuss our insurance operations. I'll then return with just a few brief comments about our ventures and investment results, and then we'll open the floor for your thoughtful questions. Teri?

現在我將把事情交給我們的首席財務官 Teri Gendron，為您提供本季度的一些詳細信息，然後交給 Jeremy Noble 討論我們的保險業務。然後，我將返回一些關於我們的企業和投資結果的簡短評論，然後我們將開始回答您深思熟慮的問題。泰瑞？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. As Tom mentioned, each of our 3 engines produced a solid quarter, strong revenue growth within our insurance operations, higher profitability within Markel Ventures and excellent returns from our investment engine showed the benefits of our diversified 3-engine architecture. Starting off with our underwriting operations. Gross written premiums grew 7% to $5.4 billion for the first half of 2023, compared to $5 billion in 2022. Our increased premium volume reflects new business and more favorable rates across many of the product lines within our insurance segment.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早上好。正如Tom 提到的，我們的3 個引擎中的每一個都實現了穩健的季度業績，我們的保險業務收入強勁增長，Markel Ventures 更高的盈利能力以及我們投資引擎的出色回報顯示了我們多元化3 引擎架構的優勢。從我們的承保業務開始。 2023 年上半年，總承保保費增長 7%，達到 54 億美元，而 2022 年為 50 億美元。我們保費收入的增加反映了我們保險領域許多產品線的新業務和更優惠的費率。

The most notable growth came from our personal lines, marine and energy, property and general liability product lines while we saw lower premium volume within our professional liability product lines. Our consolidated combined ratio for the first half of 2023 was 93% compared to 90% for the first half of last year. The increase was driven by a higher attritional loss ratio and expense ratio in 2023 within our insurance segment.

最顯著的增長來自我們的個人險、海洋和能源、財產和一般責任產品線，而我們的專業責任產品線的保費量則有所下降。 2023 年上半年我們的綜合綜合成本率為 93%，而去年上半年為 90%。這一增長是由於我們保險部門 2023 年更高的自然損耗率和費用率推動的。

Prior year loss reserves developed favorably by $139 million in the first half of 2023 compared to $123 million in the first half of 2022. We experienced favorable loss reserve development across multiple product lines in 2023, most notably across our international professional liability product lines. The favorable development in 2023 was partially offset by adverse development on our general liability product lines due to an increased frequency of large claims over the past several quarters under excess and umbrella product.

上一年的損失準備金在2023 年上半年增長了1.39 億美元，而2022 年上半年為1.23 億美元。2023 年，我們在多個產品線中都經歷了有利的損失準備金增長，尤其是在我們的國際專業責任產品線中。 2023 年的有利發展被我們一般責任產品線的不利發展所部分抵消，原因是過去幾個季度超額和傘式產品下的大額索賠頻率增加。

Turning to our investment results. Net investment gains of -- I'm sorry, of $857 million in the first half of 2023 were driven by favorable market value movements. This compares to net investment losses of $1.9 billion for the first half of 2022, driven by unfavorable market value movements. As you've heard us say many times before, we focus on long-term investment performance, expecting variability in the equity markets and the timing of investment gains and losses from period to period.

轉向我們的投資結果。抱歉，2023 年上半年的淨投資收益為 8.57 億美元，這是由有利的市場價值變動推動的。相比之下，由於不利的市值變動，2022 年上半年的淨投資損失為 19 億美元。正如您之前多次聽到我們說過的那樣，我們關注長期投資業績，預期股票市場的變化以及不同時期投資收益和損失的時間安排。

As Tom noted, we'll continue to measure investment returns over longer periods of time. With regard to net investment income, we reported $329 million in the first half of 2023 compared to $189 million in the same period last year. The increase is largely attributable to higher interest income from our money market and short-term investments due to higher short-term interest rates in 2023. Additionally, interest income on our fixed maturity securities increased, reflecting a higher yield and higher average holdings compared to last year.

正如湯姆指出的那樣，我們將繼續衡量較長時期內的投資回報。關於淨投資收益，我們報告 2023 年上半年為 3.29 億美元，而去年同期為 1.89 億美元。這一增長主要歸因於2023年短期利率上升導致我們的貨幣市場和短期投資的利息收入增加。此外，我們的固定期限證券的利息收入有所增加，反映出與去年相比更高的收益率和更高的平均持有量去年。

During the first half of 2023, we recognized net unrealized gains on our available-for-sale investments of $30 million within other comprehensive income, primarily related to the positive impact of net foreign exchange movements on our fixed maturity portfolio. This compares to net unrealized losses of $882 million for the same period last year, corresponding to the impact of increases in interest rates on our fixed maturity portfolio. Recall that we typically hold our fixed maturities until they mature and would generally expect unrealized holding gains and losses attributable to changes in interest rates to reverse in future periods as bonds mature. Our fixed maturity portfolio had an average rating of AAA as of June 30 and there are no current or expected credit losses within the portfolio.

2023 年上半年，我們在其他綜合收益中確認了可供出售投資的未實現淨收益 3000 萬美元，這主要與外匯淨變動對我們固定期限投資組合的積極影響有關。相比之下，去年同期的未實現淨損失為 8.82 億美元，這與利率上升對我們固定期限投資組合的影響相對應。回想一下，我們通常持有固定期限直至其到期，並且通常預計由於利率變化而導致的未實現持有收益和損失將在未來時期隨著債券到期而逆轉。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的固定期限投資組合的平均評級為 AAA，投資組合中不存在當前或預期的信用損失。

Now I'll cover the results of our Markel Ventures segment. Revenues from Markel Ventures increased 8% to $2.5 billion in the first half of 2023, up from $2.3 billion for the first half of last year. The increase reflects organic growth and improved pricing across several of our businesses. EBITDA from Markel Ventures increased 27% to $317 million for the first half of 2023 from $250 million during the same period last year. The increase was driven by our products businesses, which had higher margins in 2023 compared to 2022 as we saw material and freight costs stabilize.

現在我將介紹 Markel Ventures 部門的業績。 2023 年上半年，Markel Ventures 的收入增長了 8%，達到 25 億美元，高於去年上半年的 23 億美元。這一增長反映了我們多項業務的有機增長和定價的改善。 Markel Ventures 的 EBITDA 增長了 27%，從去年同期的 2.5 億美元增至 2023 年上半年的 3.17 億美元。這一增長是由我們的產品業務推動的，由於我們看到材料和貨運成本穩定，2023 年的利潤率比 2022 年更高。

Looking at our consolidated results. Our effective tax rate for the first half of 2023 was 21% compared to 22% in the same period last year. We reported net income to common shareholders of $1.2 billion for the first half of 2023 compared to a net loss to common shareholders of $986 million in the same period a year ago, with the change largely attributed to the year-over-year swing in our public equity portfolio valuation. Comprehensive income to shareholders for the first half of 2023 was $1.2 billion compared to comprehensive loss to shareholders of $1.7 billion in the first half of 2022, with swings in both fixed maturity and public equity valuations of the largest drivers.

看看我們的綜合業績。我們2023年上半年的有效稅率為21%，而去年同期為22%。我們公佈的 2023 年上半年普通股股東淨利潤為 12 億美元，而去年同期普通股股東淨虧損為 9.86 億美元，這一變化主要歸因於我們的淨利潤同比波動。公共股權投資組合估值。 2023 年上半年股東綜合收益為 12 億美元，而 2022 年上半年股東綜合虧損為 17 億美元，其中最大驅動因素的固定期限和公共股權估值均出現波動。

Turning to cash flows. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1 billion for the first half of 2023 compared to $921 million for the same period last year. Operating cash flows in the first half of 2023 reflected strong cash flows from each of our operating engines with the most notable year-over-year increase coming from our Markel Ventures operations. Within our underwriting operations, operating cash flows in 2023 were net of a $125 million payment made in the first quarter to complete a retroactive reinsurance transaction to seed our runoff book of U.K. motor casualty business. Total shareholders' equity stood at $14.2 billion at the end of June compared to $13.2 billion at the end of the year.

轉向現金流。 2023 年上半年經營活動提供的淨現金為 10 億美元，而去年同期為 9.21 億美元。 2023 年上半年的運營現金流反映出我們每個運營引擎的強勁現金流，其中最顯著的同比增長來自我們的 Markel Ventures 業務。在我們的承保業務中，2023 年的運營現金流扣除第一季度為完成追溯再保險交易而支付的 1.25 億美元款項，以奠定我們英國汽車傷亡業務的徑流賬簿。截至 6 月底，股東權益總額為 142 億美元，而去年年底為 132 億美元。

Overall, we're very pleased with our performance during the first 2 quarters of 2023 and remain confident in our ability to continue building long-term shareholder value.

總體而言，我們對 2023 年前兩個季度的業績感到非常滿意，並對我們繼續創造長期股東價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jeremy to talk more about our insurance engine.

接下來，我將把它交給傑里米，更多地討論我們的保險引擎。

Thanks, Teri, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you this morning to recap our insurance engine results for the first half of 2023. The midpoint of the year, we continue to remain focused on achieving profitable growth across all of our insurance businesses. I'm pleased to report that we are well on our way to achieving that goal with revenues across our insurance operations totaling $4.1 billion for the year, up 7% from last year, while generating pretax operating income, $325 million. Additionally, we continue to invest the float created by our underwriting operations at attractive yields. Let me now share a few thoughts on our first half results from across our collection of insurance businesses, which include our insurance and reinsurance underwriting operations, State National Program Services and Nephila insurance-linked securities.

謝謝，泰瑞，大家早上好。很高興今天早上與大家一起回顧我們 2023 年上半年的保險引擎業績。今年年中，我們將繼續專注於實現所有保險業務的盈利增長。我很高興地向大家報告，我們正在順利實現這一目標，全年保險業務收入總計 41 億美元，比去年增長 7%，同時產生稅前營業收入 3.25 億美元。此外，我們繼續以有吸引力的收益率投資我們的承銷業務創造的流通量。現在讓我分享一些對我們上半年的保險業務業績的一些想法，其中包括我們的保險和再保險承保業務、州國家計劃服務和 Nephila 保險相關證券。

Looking first at our Insurance segment. For the first 6 months of the year, we continued to grow premiums in lines where we see opportunities and feel good about the levels of rate adequacy. Overall, gross written premiums in the insurance segment grew by 9% from a year ago. We are taking advantage of the improved pricing environment in property. We are also growing in many of our other product offerings including inland marine, binding, personal lines, programs and select marine and energy classes within the London market. As we have discussed in recent quarters, the current market cycle is nuanced with each product line having a bit of its own story.

首先看看我們的保險部門。今年前 6 個月，我們在看到機會並對利率充足水平感到滿意的領域繼續提高保費。總體而言，保險板塊的總保費同比增長9%。我們正在利用房地產定價環境改善的優勢。我們的許多其他產品也在不斷增長，包括倫敦市場內的內陸海洋、裝訂、個人線路、項目以及精選海洋和能源類別。正如我們在最近幾個季度所討論的，當前的市場週期是微妙的，每個產品線都有自己的故事。

Fortunately, our breadth of product offering, when combined with our exceptional underwriting talent, allows us to develop robust go-to-market strategies by product. We have continued to decrease our writings in certain of our professional liability lines, most notably in the large account public D&O space, as we continue to remain uncomfortable with the rate decreases and loss cost trends in these products. Professional line space has also been impacted by changes in the broader economy including a slowdown in M&A and public listings. We remain resolute in our disciplined approach to underwriting and are walking away from business that we believe is not adequately priced does not meet our profitability targets.

幸運的是，我們廣泛的產品供應與卓越的承保人才相結合，使我們能夠按產品製定穩健的上市策略。我們繼續減少某些專業責任領域的著作，尤其是在大客戶公共 D&O 領域，因為我們仍然對這些產品的費率下降和損失成本趨勢感到不安。專業線路空間也受到更廣泛經濟變化的影響，包括併購和上市放緩。我們仍然堅定地堅持嚴格的承保方式，並放棄我們認為定價不充分且無法達到我們盈利目標的業務。

We also continue to see benefits from our actions taken over the past few years to reduce our exposure to outsized losses in our underwriting results through actively managing our net exposure to natural catastrophe property losses. As a result, we have experienced only modest losses this year for secondary par events, such as winter and convective storm events, while the industry grapples with this more broadly.

我們還繼續看到過去幾年我們採取的行動所帶來的好處，通過積極管理自然災害財產損失的淨風險敞口，減少我們承保業績中的巨額損失風險。因此，今年我們在次要事件（例如冬季和對流風暴事件）中僅經歷了適度的損失，而行業正在更廣泛地應對這一問題。

Within our Insurance segment, we produced a combined ratio of 93% for the first half of the year, up 5 points from a year ago. This is primarily due to higher attritional loss ratios in our professional liability and general liability product lines. We recognize that the economic and claims environment that will exist in the future when we ultimately settle claims on these long-tail lines is uncertain. Given recent trends, our view is that it's best to err on the side of caution and building more of a margin of safety to address the inevitably unpredictable nature of estimating future loss costs.

在保險業務領域，我們上半年的綜合成本率為 93%，比去年同期上升 5 個百分點。這主要是由於我們的專業責任和一般責任產品線的自然損耗率較高。我們認識到，當我們最終解決這些長尾航線的索賠時，未來將存在的經濟和索賠環境是不確定的。鑑於最近的趨勢，我們的觀點是，最好謹慎行事，並建立更多的安全邊際，以解決估計未來損失成本不可避免的不可預測性。

We also continue to maintain a cautious approach relative to recognizing prior accident year loss takedowns. However, across all of our insurance product lines, we realized $124 million of favorable development on prior year's loss reserves for the first 6 months of the year, contributing a 4-point benefit to the combined ratio. Prior accident year loss takedowns decreased slightly from a year ago representing a 1 point increase in the year-to-date combined ratio. This was driven largely by 2 offsetting factors.

我們還繼續對確認之前事故年度的損失保持謹慎態度。然而，在我們所有的保險產品線中，今年前 6 個月，我們在上一年的損失準備金上實現了 1.24 億美元的有利發展，為綜合成本率帶來了 4 個百分點的收益。上一事故年的損失量較上年同期略有下降，意味著年初至今的綜合比率增加了 1 個百分點。這主要是由兩個抵消因素驅動的。

First, we realized a more meaningful amount of favorable loss development on our professional liability book within our international operations compared to a year ago due to benign experience across several product classes. It is worth noting, we continue to remain cautious on prior year loss reserve development trends on our professional liability lines within our U.S. and Bermuda risk managed portfolio.

首先，由於多個產品類別的良好經驗，與一年前相比，我們在國際業務中的專業責任賬簿上實現了更有意義的有利損失發展。值得注意的是，我們繼續對美國和百慕大風險管理投資組合中專業責任線的上一年損失準備金發展趨勢保持謹慎。

Second, offsetting the increased takedowns within our international professional liability lines was adverse development within our U.S. casualty book, most notably our excess and umbrella product line. This is primarily on the pre-COVID 2017 to 2019 accident years, where the loss experience continues to outpace expectations. Our loss reserving philosophy remains unchanged. We continue to hold loss reserves at levels more likely to prove redundant and deficient and react quickly when loss trends outpace expectations by strengthening loss reserve levels.

其次，抵消了我們國際專業責任產品線中增加的擊落數量是我們美國傷亡手冊中的不利發展，最明顯的是我們的過剩產品線和傘式產品線。這主要是在新冠疫情之前的 2017 年至 2019 年事故年份，損失經歷繼續超出預期。我們的損失準備理念保持不變。我們繼續將損失準備金保持在更有可能被證明是多餘和不足的水平，並在損失趨勢超出預期時通過加強損失準備金水平迅速做出反應。

Further, we are generally not taking credit for favorable trends observed from the 2020 and later accident years, where we expect the benefits of improved underwriting conditions could lead to greater long-term profitability.

此外，我們通常不會將 2020 年及以後事故年份觀察到的有利趨勢歸功於我們，我們預計承保條件改善的好處可能會帶來更大的長期盈利能力。

Turning next to the Reinsurance segment. Our re-underwriting actions within the portfolio over the past few years continued to deliver profitable improvement. We produced a combined ratio of 93% for the first half of the year, an improvement in the combined ratio of 4 points, while premium volumes decreased by 4% from a year ago. The decrease in gross written premiums within the Reinsurance segment was due to lower premiums in our professional liability lines, partially offset by higher premiums in our marine and energy lines. Premium volume trends are impacted by both premium adjustment activity and timing differences related to renewals. This continues to be most notable in our transactional liability book within our professional liability product line, where deal flow continues to remain slow, resulting in ultimate -- lower ultimate premium volumes year-over-year.

接下來轉向再保險部分。過去幾年，我們在投資組合中的再承保行動繼續帶來盈利改善。今年上半年，我們的綜合成本率為 93%，綜合成本率提高了 4 個百分點，而保費銷量同比下降了 4%。再保險部門的總承保保費下降是由於我們的專業責任險保費下降，但部分被我們的船舶和能源險種保費上漲所抵消。保費量趨勢受到保費調整活動和與續保相關的時間差異的影響。這在我們的專業責任產品線的交易責任書中仍然是最值得注意的，其中交易流量繼續保持緩慢，導致最終保費量同比下降。

Lower premium adjustment activity has the effect of increasing our current year attritional loss ratio, which is offset by a decrease in our prior accident year's loss ratio. Overall, the combined ratio within our reinsurance operations improved year-to-date in 2023, given the losses incurred last year on the Russia-Ukraine war as well as experiencing greater favorable prior year loss reserve development in the current year.

較低的保費調整活動會增加我們本年度的自然損耗損失率，這被我們上一事故年度損失率的下降所抵消。總體而言，鑑於去年俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭造成的損失以及今年上一年損失準備金的發展更為有利，我們的再保險業務的綜合成本率在 2023 年迄今有所改善。

Next, I'll touch on our program services and other fronting operations and ILS operations, both of which are reported as part of our other operations. Total premium production within our program services and other fronting operations totaled $1.5 billion this year versus $1.4 billion a year ago. This 5% increase in operating revenues for the first 6 months of the year was due to an expansion of existing programs and addition of new programs. Our State National team continues to perform extremely well, and we are pleased with the business development pipeline we see.

接下來，我將介紹我們的計劃服務以及其他前端業務和 ILS 業務，這兩項業務均屬於我們其他業務的一部分。今年我們的節目服務和其他前置業務的總保費收入總計 15 億美元，而一年前為 14 億美元。今年前 6 個月營業收入增長 5% 是由於現有項目的擴展和新項目的增加。我們的州國家團隊繼續表現出色，我們對所看到的業務發展渠道感到滿意。

Further, any dislocation in the fronting space should see State National benefit given its strong and reputable history and a leading market position. Within our Nephila ILS operations, revenues and expenses for the first 6 months of the year were down due to the impact of the sale of our Velocity MGA operations in the first quarter of 2022 and the sale of our Volante MGA operations in the fourth quarter of 2022.

此外，鑑於其強大而有信譽的歷史以及領先的市場地位，前沿領域的任何錯位都應該使州國家受益。在我們的 Nephila ILS 業務中，由於 2022 年第一季度出售 Velocity MGA 業務以及 2022 年第四季度出售 Volante MGA 業務的影響，今年前 6 個月的收入和支出有所下降。 2022 年。

In addition, revenues within our fund management operations are down from last year due to lower assets under management, which stand at $7.2 billion at the end of the period. As a reminder, we realized a gain of $107 million in the first quarter last year related to the sale of our majority stake in Velocity. While our current results in Nephila reflect the lower levels of AUM being experienced results for the second quarter generated a pretax operating profit. The current pricing environment for catastrophe-exposed property risk has created an attractive return proposition for investors. Our team is working very hard to capitalize on these market opportunities, focusing on price transparency, portfolio construction.

此外，由於管理資產減少，我們基金管理業務的收入較去年有所下降，截至期末資產管理規模為 72 億美元。提醒一下，去年第一季度我們因出售 Velocity 多數股權而實現了 1.07 億美元的收益。雖然我們目前在 Nephila 的業績反映出資產管理規模較低，但第二季度的業績產生了稅前營業利潤。當前巨災財產風險的定價環境為投資者創造了有吸引力的回報主張。我們的團隊正在努力利用這些市場機會，重點關注價格透明度和投資組合構建。

Turning to current market commentary and outlook. Submission activity and new business opportunities generally remains strong outside of professional lives, particularly for our excess and circle fund operations. Clients are still turning to specialty market solutions given current levels of uncertainty and ongoing economic activity and see the attractiveness of our breadth of product offering. Just a couple of comments on rate across our portfolio. As I mentioned before, each product area and region of the world has its own story. But broadly speaking, rates are holding up fairly well. And by and large, in our estimation are keeping uplift and, in some cases, are slightly ahead of our view of trend. We have many products where rates are up 5% to 10%.

轉向當前的市場評論和前景。在職業生涯之外，提交活動和新商機通常仍然強勁，特別是對於我們的超額基金和循環基金業務。鑑於當前的不確定性和持續的經濟活動，客戶仍在轉向專業市場解決方案，並看到了我們廣泛的產品供應的吸引力。只是對我們投資組合的利率進行一些評論。正如我之前提到的，世界上每個產品領域和地區都有自己的故事。但總體而言，利率保持得相當不錯。總的來說，我們的估計正在持續上升，並且在某些情況下，略高於我們對趨勢的看法。我們有很多產品的費率高達 5% 到 10%。

For most product lines, rate adequacies in question, we are seeing success pushing for rate. Equally, we can see evidence of reducing new business, policy retention and quote and bind rates when we aren't getting the traction we need. We're also able to push on terms and conditions as well as structure or shape the portfolio if it helps towards desired retention. This is what I'd expect to see under the circumstances and is a demonstration of our commitment to underwriting discipline.

對於大多數產品線，費率是否充足存在問題，我們看到費率的成功推動。同樣，當我們沒有獲得所需的吸引力時，我們可以看到新業務、保單保留以及報價和綁定費率減少的證據。如果有助於實現所需的保留，我們還可以推動條款和條件以及構建或塑造投資組合。這是我在這種情況下所期望看到的，也體現了我們對承保紀律的承諾。

Big exceptions or property lines where rates are accelerating more meaningfully from the start of the year and risk-managed large account D&O, where prices continue to decrease somewhat inexplicably. I'm at a loss for why public D&O pricing continues to deteriorate as well as professional liability pricing trends generally. We remain cautious in these areas, which is contributing to our shrinking exposure. Generally speaking, we're focused on maintaining rate adequacy across the entirety of our portfolio, where we are unable to attain sufficient rate increases or effectively adjust terms and conditions or limits, we are walking away from accounts that do not meet our profitability targets. These actions may have the effect of slowing the top line growth trend from what we've seen in the past couple of years.

大的例外或財產險，其利率從年初開始就更加有意義地加速，而風險管理的大賬戶D&O，其價格繼續有些莫名其妙地下降。我不明白為什麼公共 D&O 定價以及專業責任定價趨勢普遍持續惡化。我們在這些領域保持謹慎，這導致我們的風險敞口縮小。一般來說，我們的重點是維持整個投資組合的利率充足性，如果我們無法實現足夠的利率上漲或有效調整條款和條件或限制，我們將放棄不符合盈利目標的賬戶。這些行動可能會減緩我們過去幾年看到的收入增長趨勢。

Given the breadth of product offering we have, we are confident we will find pockets that are attractive to grow, and we remain very optimistic around longer-term profitable growth objectives. I think we are very well positioned as we approach the latter half of '23 and look ahead to 24.

鑑於我們提供的產品範圍廣泛，我們相信我們會找到具有吸引力的增長領域，並且我們對長期盈利增長目標仍然非常樂觀。我認為，隨著我們接近 23 年下半年並展望 24 年，我們處於非常有利的位置。

Thank you. And with that, I'll turn things back over to Tom.

謝謝。有了這個，我會把事情轉回給湯姆。

Thank you, Jeremy. As Teri reported, we enjoyed an excellent first half in our Markel Ventures operations. The CEOs and the people of those organizations continue to do a great job of serving their customers and their associates. Total revenues at Ventures rose 8% in the first half from $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion. EBITDA rose 27% from $230 million to $317 million. One of the very encouraging points about this comparison is that it's largely organic. It's largely apples-to-apples and not due to additional acquisitions. I hope you take some comfort in seeing these results. I know that I do.

謝謝你，傑里米。正如 Teri 報導的那樣，我們的 Markel Ventures 業務上半年表現出色。這些組織的首席執行官和員工繼續出色地為客戶和同事提供服務。上半年，Ventures 的總收入增長了 8%，從 23 億美元增至 25 億美元。 EBITDA 增長 27%，從 2.3 億美元增至 3.17 億美元。這種比較非常令人鼓舞的一點是它很大程度上是有機的。這主要是同類之間的比較，而不是由於額外的收購。我希望您看到這些結果後能感到一些安慰。我知道我知道。

I'm delighted that we were able to apply some capital to purchases of noncontrolling interest in our array of ventures companies as fully planned for at the time of the original acquisitions and that a couple of our companies were able to add some additional companies to our family. The acquisition of additional businesses within our platforms of existing businesses is one of our favorite ways to deploy capital, and I'm encouraged to see the maturation and ongoing development of this aspect of Markel Ventures.

我很高興我們能夠按照最初收購時的充分計劃，運用一些資本來購買我們一系列風險投資公司的非控股權益，並且我們的幾家公司能夠在我們的公司中添加一些額外的公司。家庭。在我們現有業務的平台內收購更多業務是我們最喜歡的資本配置方式之一，我很高興看到 Markel Ventures 在這方面的成熟和持續發展。

We remain interested in additional platform acquisitions at Markel Ventures, remain disciplined in our approach. We remain involved in a few conversations, but I have nothing to report to you on that front. And all I can say is that we continue to work at the task and we will be both opportunistic and disciplined in considering opportunities.

我們仍然對 Markel Ventures 的其他平台收購感興趣，並保持我們的方法嚴謹。我們仍在進行一些對話，但在這方面我沒有什麼可向你們報告的。我只能說，我們將繼續努力完成這項任務，我們在考慮機會時將既機會主義又自律。

In the investment engine, you can see the effect of higher interest rates and solid equity performance shine through. Recurring investment income grew 74% from $189 million to $329 million in the first half and new money investment rates continue to be higher than the fixed income maturities rolling off as they mature. We continue to purchase only the highest credit quality securities that we can find and remain roughly matched in duration and currency to our insurance liabilities.

在投資引擎中，您可以看到更高的利率和穩健的股票表現所帶來的影響。上半年經常性投資收入從 1.89 億美元增長 74% 至 3.29 億美元，新資金投資利率繼續高於到期後滾存的固定收益投資利率。我們繼續只購買我們能找到的最高信用質量的證券，並在期限和幣種上與我們的保險負債大致匹配。

In our equity portfolio, we earned 11.9% returns in the first half, and we purchased $155 million net of new holdings compared to $63 million a year ago. We continue to find securities which meet our hurdle rates for new investments. We also have cash flowing in to fund the growth of our insurance and ventures operations and repurchase Markel Group shares all at the same time.

在我們的股票投資組合中，上半年我們獲得了 11.9% 的回報，我們購買了 1.55 億美元（扣除新持股），而一年前為 6300 萬美元。我們繼續尋找符合我們新投資最低門檻的證券。我們還有現金流入，為保險和風險投資業務的增長提供資金，並同時回購馬克爾集團股票。

All right. As is always the case, there are challenges at your company. There always will be, that will always be the case, and there never is a time when we're not worried about something, we're working on some problem. That's reality. The good news is that you've got decades to judge us by to ascertain whether we're up to those challenges or not. I think the preponderance of evidence would suggest that we are. The additional good news is that the values and the culture we've developed over decades to guide our actions and decisions remains unchanged.

好的。一如既往，您的公司面臨著挑戰。總會有這樣的情況，永遠都會有這樣的情況，我們從來沒有不擔心某些事情的時候，我們正在解決一些問題。這就是現實。好消息是，您有幾十年的時間來評判我們，以確定我們是否能夠應對這些挑戰。我認為大量證據表明我們確實如此。另一個好消息是，我們幾十年來形成的指導我們行動和決策的價值觀和文化保持不變。

We're committed to continuing on that path to building one of the world's great companies with our win-win-win architecture, and I look forward to answering your thoughtful questions and working on the future, as Buzz Lightyear would say to Infinity and beyond. With that, we welcome your questions.

我們致力於繼續走這條道路，以雙贏的架構打造世界上最偉大的公司之一，我期待著回答你們深思熟慮的問題並為未來而努力，正如巴斯光年對無限及其他人所說的那樣。因此，我們歡迎您提出問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們的第一個問題來自馬克·休斯與 Truist 的對話。

Thank you. Good morning. Wonder if there's any more detail you could provide on the reserve development that you're seeing you described in the 2017 to 2019 accident years? Is that social inflation, medical inflation? Just a little more on that would be interesting.

謝謝。早上好。想知道您是否可以提供有關 2017 年至 2019 年事故年份描述的儲備開發的更多詳細信息？那是社會通貨膨脹、醫療通貨膨脹嗎？再多講一點就會很有趣。

Yes. Sure. Mark, it's Jeremy. It's very similar to what we've talked about in recent quarters. And I think what's being reported broadly across the industry. The reality is that the business that we put on the books in years like 2015 to 2019, our view now is it's not going to be as ultimately profitable as we believe at that time. And that's because the time that has passed since then, so you get into that confluence of events, rising economic inflation, compounding aspects of that, the impacts of COVID, the court closures, the lag in sort of reporting and then certainly to the point that you raised, and social inflation is a very real thing. So the cost of handling and adjusting and settling claims has gone up and the role and the prominence of litigation financing has been rising.

是的。當然。馬克，這是傑里米。這與我們最近幾個季度討論的非常相似。我認為整個行業都在廣泛報導這一點。現實情況是，我們在 2015 年至 2019 年等年份登記的業務，我們現在的觀點是，它最終不會像我們當時認為的那樣盈利。那是因為從那時起已經過去了，所以你會陷入各種事件的交匯，經濟通脹上升，複雜的方面，新冠病毒的影響，法院關閉，報告的滯後，然後肯定是要點你提出的，社會通貨膨脹是一個非常真實的事情。因此，處理、調整和解決索賠的成本上升，訴訟融資的作用和重要性不斷上升。

And so ultimately, we're witnessing pockets in those longer tail lines, particularly casualty like we reported this quarter, where actual loss frequency and severity are in excess of our expectations. And the reality is when we see a little bit of that activity, we allow a bit of time to make sure that we think that there is a trend there. And as we see that trend, and we're reacting very quickly, and we're acting to try to push hard to get ahead of that and put that behind us.

因此，最終，我們看到了那些較長尾線中的口袋，特別是像我們本季度報告的那樣的傷亡，實際損失頻率和嚴重程度超出了我們的預期。現實是，當我們看到一點點這種活動時，我們會花一些時間來確保我們認為那裡存在趨勢。當我們看到這一趨勢時，我們的反應非常迅速，我們正在採取行動，努力推動這一趨勢的發展，並將其拋在身後。

Equally, I would say it's really important to point out that a lot of time has passed, obviously, between the sort of this quarter, 17 to 19 years for that block of business from '15 to '19 in those years more recently, right, a lot of changes that have taken place. So pushing rate, improving terms and conditions, addressing limits attachment points, segmentation strategies. We've seen deductibles rise. So lots of things that have improved the overall health of the portfolios. But we are left to address those older years.

同樣，我想說，指出這一點非常重要，顯然，從本季度到 17 到 19 年，對於最近幾年從 15 年到 19 年的業務塊來說，已經過去了很多時間，對吧，發生了很多變化。因此，推動利率、改進條款和條件、解決附著點限制、細分策略。我們看到免賠額上升。很多事情都改善了投資組合的整體健康狀況。但我們仍要面對那些過去的歲月。

I appreciate that detail. How about the workers' comp line, how are you approaching that at this point? And then are you seeing any medical inflation pick up there?

我很欣賞這個細節。工人的補償線怎麼樣，你現在是如何處理這個問題的？那麼您是否看到那裡的醫療通脹有所上升？

Yes. Great question. So within workers' comp, it continues to be a great and you have to recall, our workers' comp book is pretty sort of niche within the broader segment. So it's a lot of very sort of micro workers' comp. And some of the trends that we would see would be a little bit different than maybe broader workers' comp more broadly. That line of business has been very profitable for us. We've consistently seen reductions and prior year loss reserves over time. We still see some of that at the levels aren't as significant. We don't yet see the impact and prices have been coming off consistently in recent years because of the very positive performance in the product line, we continue to monitor it very closely.

是的。很好的問題。因此，在工人補償中，它仍然是一個偉大的，你必須記住，我們的工人補償書在更廣泛的細分市場中相當小眾。所以這是很多微型工人的補償。我們看到的一些趨勢可能與更廣泛的工人薪酬略有不同。該業務對我們來說非常有利可圖。隨著時間的推移，我們一直看到減少和上一年的損失準備金。我們仍然看到其中一些水平並不那麼重要。由於產品線的表現非常積極，我們還沒有看到影響，近年來價格一直在下降，我們將繼續密切監控。

We have not seen an impact of rising medical inflation impacting that book for us as of yet, but we're very focused on reviewing that trend. And the book -- it's not been growing at the rate of the broader portfolio as well, but we'll see. We're paying very, very close attention to that.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到醫療通脹上升對這本書的影響，但我們非常關注這一趨勢。而這本書——它也沒有以更廣泛的投資組合的速度增長，但我們會看到。我們非常非常密切地關注這一點。

Then one other question. The program services fronting a big increase this quarter. I think for the 6 months, it's been not quite as big. Was that just a timing issue on renewals? Or is there some new business this quarter?

然後還有一個問題。該計劃服務本季度將大幅增長。我認為這六個月以來，情況並沒有那麼大。這只是續訂的時間問題嗎？或者這個季度有什麼新業務嗎？

Yes, it's a handful of things. So within our State National business, really pleased with where we stand there. We are expanding a few very strategic relationships. We've actually probably done a little bit better in retention of some of the programs than we would have anticipated. We've onboarded a number of new programs.

是的，這是一些事情。因此，在我們州的國家企業中，我們對我們所處的位置非常滿意。我們正在擴大一些非常具有戰略意義的關係。實際上，我們在保留某些程序方面可能做得比我們預期的要好一些。我們已經啟動了許多新計劃。

And equally, I think the pipeline at State National looks very good. So some of that played out in the second quarter and were up modestly year-to-date. Also within that total fronting space in some of the fronting we do associated with our Nephila operations when we offer a rated balance sheet. So we've seen some opportunistic growth in that space because of the attractiveness of the property to test the environment more broadly. So less sort of timing, you never know with our State National platform, we had some very large deals, and there's always an ebb and flow of what's kind of coming in, what's leaving the platform, but we feel really, really good about where we're positioned right now.

同樣，我認為國家國民的管道看起來非常好。因此，其中一些在第二季度發揮了作用，並且今年迄今略有上升。此外，當我們提供評級資產負債表時，我們確實與 Nephila 業務相關的一些前置總前置空間內。因此，由於該地產對更廣泛地測試環境的吸引力，我們在該領域看到了一些機會主義的增長。因此，時間安排不太好，你永遠不知道我們的州國家平台，我們有一些非常大的交易，而且總是有某種類型的進來、什麼離開平台的潮起潮落，但我們對在哪裡感到非常非常好我們現在已經就位了。

Your next question comes from the line of John Fox with Fenimore Asset Management.

您的下一個問題來自 Fenimore 資產管理公司的約翰·福克斯 (John Fox)。

Thank you. Well, Mark asked 2 of my questions, so I'll go with the third. Well, first of all, great results. I just wanted to ask if I'm looking at this the right way. Tom, I heard you talk about the investment income potential to continue to grow. And I'm wondering if you're underselling it. When I look at the queue, it's about $13.7 billion in bonds at fair value, which assuming you get without any credit hits, and it's yielding less than 3% at this point. So it seems to me there's a couple of hundred million of investment income, latent earnings power that's going to earn in over the next few years as those bonds mature. Am I looking at that the right way?

謝謝。好吧，馬克問了我的兩個問題，所以我會問第三個問題。嗯，首先，結果很好。我只是想問我是否以正確的方式看待這個問題。湯姆，我聽到你談到投資收入繼續增長的潛力。我想知道你是否低估了它。當我查看隊列時，按公允價值計算的債券約為 137 億美元，假設您沒有受到任何信貸打擊，而此時的收益率不到 3%。因此，在我看來，隨著這些債券的成熟，未來幾年將帶來數億的投資收入和潛在盈利能力。我的看法正確嗎？

Yes. (inaudible) wordy of my answers like yes.

是的。 （聽不清）我的回答冗長如是。

And that magnitude seems reasonable?

這個幅度似乎合理？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Heleniak。

The first question I have was on the insurance unit. The premium growth there. It ticked up a little bit versus Q1. And just curious how you're feeling about just overall pricing new business environment. Are you constructive in terms of growth for the rest of '23 and '24. It sounded like you were kind of based on the commentary about most pricing. I mean there's a few areas. But just anything you can talk about that? And is the growth just being impacted mostly by professional liability and D&O, but the rest of the portfolio you're feeling pretty good about in terms of the rest '23 and '24.

我的第一個問題是關於保險單位的。那裡的保費增長。與第一季度相比略有上升。只是好奇您對新業務環境的整體定價有何感受。您對 23 年和 24 年剩餘時間的增長持建設性態度嗎？聽起來你是基於對大多數定價的評論。我的意思是有幾個領域。但你可以談論任何事情嗎？增長是否主要受到專業責任和 D&O 的影響，但就 23 年和 24 年的其餘部分而言，您對投資組合的其餘部分感覺相當好。

I think that's pretty well said, Scott. I don't have a lot to add to that. There's a number of product classes and I mentioned some of this earlier, where we feel it's very attractive. We're seeing great opportunities to grow. I mentioned property and inland marine and personal lines and binding, surety programs, marine and energy [in London]. So that's one of the benefits we have of having a very broad and diversified product portfolio, we can really sort of choose our points that are most attractive in the insurance market cycle. And we've talked about the fact that it's pretty nuanced right now, so you have to have a strategy around each major product line.

我認為這句話說得很好，斯科特。我沒有太多要補充的。有很多產品類別，我之前提到過其中一些，我們覺得它非常有吸引力。我們看到了巨大的發展機會。我提到了財產和內陸海洋和個人保險和綁定、擔保計劃、海洋和能源（在倫敦）。因此，這是我們擁有非常廣泛和多元化的產品組合的好處之一，我們確實可以選擇在保險市場週期中最具吸引力的點。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即現在的情況非常微妙，因此您必須圍繞每個主要產品線製定戰略。

You're exactly right. We are a large professional liability lines rider. And so because of one part, a lack of activity in the space that reduces exposure being brought to the market overall and also how the pricing environment is looking not just in public D&O. I mean that's the best example. But we're being cautious and thoughtful around E&O, EPLI, other lines as well. And because we had a large book that weighs some of the growth opportunity. Casualty is an area where the growth is more tempered compared to last couple of years, but it's a good example of where we are able to push rate and we're certainly able to sort of -- have sort of segmentation strategies about how and where we choose to play in the casualty line. So overall, if you okay in that space as well. So I think the growth opportunities remain out there, and we're pretty confident about our platform given the breadth of product offering.

你說得完全正確。我們是一家大型專業責任線騎手。因此，一方面，該領域缺乏活動，從而減少了整個市場的風險敞口，也減少了定價環境的影響，而不僅僅是公共董事和高管的定價環境。我的意思是這是最好的例子。但我們對 E&O、EPLI 以及其他產品線也持謹慎和深思熟慮的態度。因為我們有一本大書，權衡了一些增長機會。與過去幾年相比，傷亡是一個增長較為溫和的領域，但這是一個很好的例子，說明我們能夠在哪些方面提高死亡率，而且我們當然能夠制定關於如何以及在何處的細分策略我們選擇在傷亡線上比賽。總的來說，如果你在那個領域也表現良好的話。因此，我認為增長機會仍然存在，鑑於產品供應的廣度，我們對我們的平台非常有信心。

Okay. Great. That's helpful detail. I just wanted to follow up one quick question, too, on the reserve add and general liability, the umbrella excess casualty for '17 and '19. Is this -- it's based on some of the -- an uptick in cases and claims. Obviously, you're seeing something, but -- is it just kind of early signs and you're putting up IBNR just to be conservative on that? Or just anything you can touch on the actual activity that you're seeing there, either frequency or severity in those lines? Is there anything more you can comment on that?

好的。偉大的。這是有用的細節。我也只是想跟進一個簡單的問題，關於儲備金增加和一般責任，以及 17 和 19 年的超額傷亡。這是基於一些案件和索賠的增加嗎？顯然，你看到了一些東西，但是——這是否只是一種早期跡象，而你提出 IBNR 只是為了對此持保守態度？或者只是您可以觸及您在那裡看到的實際活動的任何內容，無論是這些行中的頻率還是嚴重程度？您對此還有什麼可以評論的嗎？

Yes. I mean there's something to completely pinpoint, Scott. Beyond just suggesting within our actuarial models, especially when you're starting to talk about those older years. So these are on sort of really the '17 and '19 years at -- so several years these would be maturing well under their cycles. We have had a lot of history with these programs. And we would be seeing this point more reported loss activity than we would have been anticipating.

是的。我的意思是，有一些事情需要完全查明，斯科特。不僅僅是在我們的精算模型中提出建議，尤其是當你開始談論那些較早的歲月時。所以這些實際上是在 17 和 19 年——所以幾年後這些將在他們的周期下成熟。我們在這些項目上有很多歷史。我們會看到此時報告的損失活動比我們預期的要多。

I don't -- I'm not drawn to a specific element with regards to frequency versus severity. It's just in total, the claims reporting pattern, the volume of activity is more significant than what we would expect. And then you extrapolate that. So a little bit of out -- a little bit more reported activity than we would have expected in our underlying models, if we concerned that, that could become a trend, we extrapolate that, and we take a more significant movement, right? So the total dollars in the period of actual versus expected on that loss activity, it pales in comparison to the total amount of loss development we recognized in the period. So now we'll wait and see how that sort of trends and develops over time. But a lot of that is now sitting in IBNR, we continue to be very, very cautious to respond quickly on that back year development.

我不——我不會被頻率與嚴重性方面的特定元素所吸引。總的來說，索賠報告模式、活動量比我們預期的要重要。然後你就可以推斷出這一點。因此，有點出乎意料——報告的活動比我們在基礎模型中預期的要多一點，如果我們擔心這可能成為一種趨勢，我們會推斷出這一點，然後我們會採取更重大的行動，對嗎？因此，該損失活動的實際與預期期間的總金額與我們在該期間確認的損失發展總額相比顯得相形見絀。所以現在我們將拭目以待，看看這種趨勢如何隨著時間的推移而發展。但其中很多現在都在 IBNR 中，我們仍然非常非常謹慎地對去年的發展做出快速反應。

Okay. Got it. And just a last question just on Markel Ventures, Tom, could you comment on just -- you mentioned some conversations and discussions you're having and how those have kind of trended just the number of them this year versus last year and anything you can add there? And is deal pricing still -- I know I was kind of holding you back a little bit, is that still case now? Or just any update on kind of what you're seeing in terms of potential M&A for ventures.

好的。知道了。關於 Markel Ventures 的最後一個問題，湯姆，你能評論一下嗎——你提到了你正在進行的一些對話和討論，以及今年與去年相比的對話和討論的趨勢，以及你可以做的任何事情。添加那裡？交易定價是否仍然存在——我知道我有點阻礙了你，現在仍然是這種情況嗎？或者只是您所看到的有關企業潛在併購的任何更新。

Sure. Well, let me give you some precise answers on that. So the conversations we're having now, reported some; the conversations a year ago, almost none. So just a few more people to talk to. And the gap would be in pricing and remaining disciplined and being a different kind of buyer than the other buyers that are out there. That's something obviously sellers are aware of. We can bridge those gaps and get close in some markets. Other markets, we just have to wait and let the tide roll out a little bit, and we've been doing that for a while. And that's not unprecedented. The first Markel Ventures deal we did was in 2005. We didn't do the second one until I think, 3 years later in 2008. So we're used to periods where we just talk to people and wait for the stars to align.

當然。好吧，讓我給你一些準確的答案。所以我們現在正在進行的對話，報導了一些；一年前的談話幾乎沒有。所以就多找幾個人聊聊吧。差距在於定價和保持紀律，以及成為與其他買家不同類型的買家。賣家顯然也意識到了這一點。我們可以彌合這些差距並在某些市場上縮小差距。在其他市場，我們只需要等待，讓潮流稍微展開一點，我們這樣做已經有一段時間了。這並不是史無前例的。我們做的第一筆 Markel Ventures 交易是在 2005 年。直到我想，三年後的 2008 年，我們才做第二筆交易。所以我們習慣了只與人交談並等待星星對齊的時期。

Yes. Well, some of it is better than none, right? So...

是的。嗯，有一些總比沒有好，對吧？所以...

That's correct.

這是正確的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回湯姆·蓋納（Tom Gayner）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you very much for your ongoing support and interest. We look forward to catching up with you in another 90 days. We will.

非常感謝您一直以來的支持和關注。我們期待在 90 天后與您聯繫。我們將。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。