Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation 2023 First Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to the Director of Investor Relations at Methanex, Ms. Sarah Herriott. Please go ahead, Ms. Herriott.

早上好。我叫布倫特，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，歡迎大家參加 Methanex Corporation 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Methanex 的投資者關係總監 Sarah Herriott 女士。請繼續，赫里奧特女士。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2023 results conference call. Our 2023 first quarter news release, management discussion and analysis and financial statements can be accessed from the Reports tab of the Investor Relations page on our website at methanex.com. I'd like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections, which are included in the forward-looking information.

大家，早安。歡迎來到我們的 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。我們的 2023 年第一季度新聞稿、管理層討論和分析以及財務報表可從我們網站 methanex.com 投資者關係頁面的報告選項卡中獲取。我想提醒我們的聽眾，我們今天對你們問題的評論和回答可能包含前瞻性信息。就其性質而言，此信息受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致聲明的結果與實際結果存在重大差異。在得出結論或做出預測或預測時應用了某些重大因素或假設，這些因素或假設包含在前瞻性信息中。

Please refer to our first quarter 2023 MD&A and to our 2022 annual report for more information. I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update guidance between quarters. For clarification, any references to revenue, average realized price, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income or adjusted earnings per share made in today's remarks reflects our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility and our 60% interest in Waterford shipping.

請參閱我們的 2023 年第一季度 MD&A 和我們的 2022 年年度報告以獲取更多信息。我還想提醒我們的聽眾，今天提供的關於 Methanex 未來財務業績的任何預測從今天起都是有效的。我們的政策是不評論或更新季度之間的指南。為澄清起見，今天的評論中提及的收入、平均實現價格、EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA、現金流、調整後的收入或調整後的每股收益都反映了我們在阿特拉斯設施中 63.1% 的經濟利益，我們在埃及的 50% 經濟利益設施以及我們在沃特福德航運公司 60% 的權益。

In addition, we report our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark-to-market impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events. These items are non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP, and therefore, unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. We report these non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this manner. I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex' President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner for his comments and a question-and-answer period.

此外，我們報告了調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨收入，以排除按市值計價對股票薪酬的影響以及與特定已識別事件相關的某些項目的影響。這些項目是非 GAAP 指標和比率，沒有 GAAP 規定的任何標準化含義，因此不太可能與其他公司提出的類似指標相比較。我們以這種方式報告這些非 GAAP 指標，因為我們相信它們是衡量基本經營業績的更好指標，我們鼓勵研究該公司的分析師以這種方式報告他們的估計。我現在想將電話轉給 Methanex 總裁兼首席執行官 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表評論並進行問答。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2023 results. For the first quarter, our average realized price of $371 per ton and produced sales of approximately 1.65 million tons generated adjusted EBITDA of $209 million and adjusted net income of $1.11 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, primarily due to higher sales of methanol produced methanol driven by higher production in Egypt, Atlas and Chile. Throughout the first quarter, we saw a relatively balanced global market, which continues to be underpinned by high global energy prices. Global methanol demand in the first quarter was flat compared to the fourth quarter 2022.

謝謝莎拉，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。第一季度，我們的平均實現價格為每噸 371 美元，產生的銷售額約為 165 萬噸，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.09 億美元，調整後的每股淨收入為 1.11 美元。與第四季度相比，第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 更高，這主要是由於埃及、阿特拉斯和智利的產量增加推動甲醇生產的甲醇銷售額增加。在整個第一季度，我們看到了一個相對平衡的全球市場，該市場繼續受到全球能源價格高企的支撐。與 2022 年第四季度相比，第一季度全球甲醇需求持平。

Demand for traditional chemical applications decreased slightly due to the seasonal slowdown in manufacturing activity, including the slowdown in China during the Lunar New Year. Demand for methanol to olefins, or MTO, increased slightly in the first quarter with some improved operating rates through the quarter as several production units increased production on improving margins and increased methanol availability. Demand for energy applications, including MTBE, biodiesel and various fuel applications in China increased slightly, driven mainly by levels of economic activity as well as continued cost competitiveness in today's high energy price environment. During the first part of the quarter, industry operating rates in China and Iran were negatively impacted by the seasonal diversion of natural gas to meet power mat, and Atlantic operating rates were lower due to planned and unplanned outages.

由於製造業活動的季節性放緩，包括中國農曆新年期間的放緩，對傳統化學應用的需求略有下降。甲醇制烯烴 (MTO) 的需求在第一季度略有增加，整個季度的開工率有所提高，因為一些生產裝置因利潤率提高和甲醇供應增加而增加了產量。中國對包括 MTBE、生物柴油和各種燃料應用在內的能源應用的需求略有增長，這主要是受經濟活動水平以及當今高能源價格環境下持續的成本競爭力的推動。在本季度的前半部分，中國和伊朗的工業開工率受到天然氣季節性轉移以滿足電力供應的負面影響，而大西洋的開工率由於計劃內和計劃外的停電而較低。

Starting near the end of the first quarter, we saw strong operating rates in the U.S. Gulf and easing of gas curtailments in China and Iran, leading to increased production, which led to lower methanol prices globally. Our average realized price for the first quarter was $371 per metric ton compared to $373 per metric ton for the fourth quarter. And our first quarter discount rate was in line with our guidance for 2023 at approximately 21%. Coal pricing in China continues to remain strong at a level above RMB 1,000 per tonne, and we estimate the industry cost curve based on a marginal producer cost in China to be approximately $320 to $340 per ton. Our May posted prices in North America, Asia Pacific and China decreased by 2010 and $15 per metric ton, respectively, and our Q2 European price was posted EUR 10 per metric ton higher than Q1 2023. We continue to closely monitor the macroeconomic and energy price environment with inflationary pressures and resulting tight monetary policies presenting headwinds for global economic growth.

從第一季度末開始，我們看到美國海灣地區的開工率強勁，中國和伊朗的天然氣削減有所緩解，導致產量增加，從而導致全球甲醇價格下跌。我們第一季度的平均實現價格為每公噸 371 美元，而第四季度為每公噸 373 美元。我們的第一季度貼現率符合我們對 2023 年的指導，約為 21%。中國的煤炭價格繼續保持在每噸 1,000 元人民幣以上的強勢水平，我們估計基於中國邊際生產者成本的行業成本曲線約為每噸 320 至 340 美元。我們在北美、亞太地區和中國公佈的 5 月份價格分別下降了 2010 年和每公噸 15 美元，我們公佈的第二季度歐洲價格比 2023 年第一季度高出每公噸 10 歐元。我們繼續密切關注宏觀經濟和能源價格通脹壓力和由此產生的緊縮貨幣政策對全球經濟增長構成不利影響。

Notwithstanding these risks, we expect demand for traditional chemical applications to increase as we move into the housing and construction season and from continued growth in the Chinese economy after their COVID reopening and Chinese Lunar New Year holiday in the first quarter. In addition, MTO operating rates have continued to improve and 2 MTO units representing approximately 1.5 million tons of annual demand are in the process of restarting production. We also continue to see a high global energy price environment, which enhances methanol's cost competitiveness against alternative fuels supporting to macro. In the short term, we expect the recent methanol operating rate increases, mainly from Iran and China to support increasing demand. For the remainder of 2023, we do not anticipate capacity additions besides one plant in China and our Geismar 3 project with expected production in the fourth quarter.

儘管存在這些風險，但隨著我們進入住房和建築旺季，以及第一季度 COVID 重新開放和中國農曆新年假期後中國經濟的持續增長，我們預計對傳統化學應用的需求將會增加。此外，MTO開工率持續提升，年需求量約150萬噸的2台MTO裝置正在復產。我們還繼續看到全球能源價格高企的環境，這增強了甲醇相對於支持宏觀經濟的替代燃料的成本競爭力。短期內，我們預計近期甲醇開工率上升，主要來自伊朗和中國，以支持不斷增長的需求。對於 2023 年的剩餘時間，除了中國的一家工廠和我們的 Geismar 3 項目預計第四季度投產外，我們預計不會增加產能。

Regarding the emerging marine market, interest from the marine industry and orders for dual-fuel vessels able to run on methanol continue to grow. During the first quarter, approximately 35 additional vessel orders were placed, bringing the total number of dual-fuel vessels on order to over 135. We estimate that the demand potential will grow from approximately 300,000 tons today to 4 million tons over the next few years. In February, we completed the first ever net 0 voyage fueled by biomethanol produced from our Geismar plant in partnership with Mitsui OSK Lines or MOL. Our collaboration with MOL demonstrates the versatility of methanol as a brainfuel with a pathway to net 0 emissions.

對於新興的海運市場，海運業對使用甲醇的雙燃料船的興趣和訂單持續增長。第一季度新增約 35 艘船舶訂單，使雙燃料船舶訂單總數超過 135 艘。我們預計未來幾年需求潛力將從目前的約 30 萬噸增長至 400 萬噸. 2 月，我們與 Mitsui OSK Lines 或 MOL 合作，完成了首個使用 Geismar 工廠生產的生物甲醇作為燃料的淨零航次。我們與 MOL 的合作展示了甲醇作為大腦燃料的多功能性，並可實現淨零排放。

Turning to operations. Our production levels were higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter with limited unplanned outages. The team safely and successfully completed a planned turnaround at G1 with the plant restarting production in February. We ended the first quarter in a strong financial position with approximately $709 million of cash, excluding noncontrolling interest, and including our share in the Atlas joint venture and with $300 million of undrawn backup liquidity. We remain committed to return excess cash to shareholders through our ongoing 5% normal course issuer bid that expires in September, and we announced that our Board approved an increase of our quarterly dividend by 6% to $0.185 per share. This increase is in line with our 5% share repurchase program and maintains our cash outlay for dividend payments at approximately $50 million per annum. Construction on our G3 project is progressing safely, on time and on budget, with production expected in the fourth quarter of this year.

轉向運營。與第四季度相比，我們第一季度的生產水平更高，計劃外停機有限。隨著工廠於 2 月重新開始生產，該團隊安全並成功地完成了 G1 的計劃周轉。第一季度結束時，我們的財務狀況良好，擁有約 7.09 億美元的現金，不包括非控股權益，包括我們在 Atlas 合資企業中的股份以及 3 億美元的未動用備用流動資金。我們仍然致力於通過 9 月份到期的 5% 正常發行人出價向股東返還多餘現金，並且我們宣布董事會批准將季度股息增加 6% 至每股 0.185 美元。這一增長符合我們 5% 的股票回購計劃，並將我們用於支付股息的現金支出保持在每年約 5000 萬美元。我們的 G3 項目建設正在安全、按時、按預算進行，預計將於今年第四季度投產。

Overall, the G3 project is over 80% complete, and the team has started to shift from mechanical construction activities to commissioning activities. The expected G3 capital remains unchanged at $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion, and we have spent approximately $995 million before capitalized interest to the end of the first quarter. The remaining $330 million to $380 million of cash expenditures, including approximately $75 million in accounts payable is fully funded with cash on hand. Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2023, we expect a lower methanol price environment. And as a result, we are expecting a lower adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2023 compared with the first quarter. Our overall production guidance for the year of 6.5 million metric tons of equity production excluding G3, remains unchanged.

總體而言，G3 項目已完成 80% 以上，團隊已開始從機械施工活動轉向調試活動。預期的 G3 資本保持在 12.5 億美元至 13 億美元不變，到第一季度末，我們在資本化利息之前已經花費了大約 9.95 億美元。其餘 3.3 億至 3.8 億美元的現金支出，包括約 7500 萬美元的應付賬款，全部由手頭現金支付。展望 2023 年第二季度，我們預計甲醇價格環境將走低。因此，我們預計 2023 年第二季度的調整後 EBITDA 將低於第一季度。我們對今年 650 萬公噸權益產量（不包括 G3）的總體產量指導保持不變。

In the medium term, the methanol market outlook is positive, and we will have growing cash flow generation capability with G3 production expected in the fourth quarter of this year at a $375 per ton realized price and $4 per MMbt of gas price, we expect G3 to generate approximately $250 million of adjusted EBITDA per year. With our G3 project being fully funded with cash on hand and our ability to generate meaningful cash flows across a wide range of methanol prices, we are well positioned during this period of economic uncertainty to maintain a strong balance sheet, pursue economic valuated growth opportunities and continue returning excess cash to shareholders. We would now be happy to answer questions.

從中期來看，甲醇市場前景樂觀，我們將擁有越來越多的現金流生成能力，預計今年第四季度 G3 產量將達到每噸 375 美元的實現價格和每 MMbt 4 美元的天然氣價格，我們預計 G3每年產生約 2.5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。由於我們的 G3 項目完全由手頭現金提供資金，並且我們有能力在各種甲醇價格範圍內產生有意義的現金流，因此我們在這段經濟不確定時期處於有利地位，可以保持強勁的資產負債表，尋求經濟估值的增長機會和繼續向股東返還多餘的現金。我們現在很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

One trend that we've been watching in methanol has been that your posted price for North America versus U.S. Gulf spot to the premiums of the North America posted price versus U.S. Gulf spot have been quite high, touching, reaching some of the peaks that you've had in the last 7 years. Can you talk about that? And typically, that's not been a bad time to Methanex stock when the premium has actually been higher than normal?

我們一直在關注甲醇的一個趨勢是，你們北美公佈的價格相對於美國海灣現貨的價格與北美公佈價格相對於美國海灣現貨的溢價一直相當高，觸及，達到了你們認為的一些峰值在過去的 7 年裡。你能談談嗎？通常情況下，當溢價實際上高於正常水平時，這對 Methanex 股票來說並不是一個糟糕的時機？

Yes. So maybe I'll just start a little history over time, there's been new capacity added in the U.S. The U.S. is a heavily contracted market. And we believe a lot of the new U.S. producers, they've undercontracted their overall production positions. And so in the fourth -- in the first quarter, we saw U.S. golf production quite relatively low. And then as we moved through the quarter, it all came back operating at relatively high levels. A lot of those producers are relying on exports and a very small spot market in the U.S., which is I think the spot market probably trades overall less than 5% of overall methanol business in the U.S. So at those times, when there's a lot of volume, we see distressed pricing.

是的。所以也許我會隨著時間的推移開始一點歷史，美國增加了新的產能。美國是一個嚴重收縮的市場。我們相信很多新的美國生產商，他們已經將他們的整體生產職位合同不足。所以在第四季度——第一季度，我們看到美國的高爾夫產量相對較低。然後，當我們度過這個季度時，一切都恢復到相對較高的水平。很多生產商都依賴出口和非常小的美國現貨市場，我認為現貨市場的交易量可能不到美國甲醇業務總量的 5%。量，我們看到低價定價。

And certainly, the pricing we saw in the spot market went to, I think, at one point went all the way down to $250 per ton. It's now closer to, I think, back closer to $300 per ton. So -- so I think there's points in time, Joel, where that gets pretty low based on a small level of cargoes trading that doesn't have a home, especially when everyone's running at high rates at the same time. So I certainly don't see that as indicative overall Nathan all price globally, but there has been new supply on the market with Iran, China as well as U.S. Gulf producers, and that's why we've lowered our contract pricing for a couple of months in a row.

當然，我認為，我們在現貨市場看到的價格曾一度跌至每噸 250 美元。我認為，它現在更接近每噸 300 美元。所以 - 所以我認為有時間點，喬爾，基於沒有家的小規模貨物交易，這一點變得非常低，特別是當每個人同時以高利率運行時。所以我當然不認為這是全球 Nathan 所有價格的指示性指標，但市場上有伊朗、中國和美國海灣生產商的新供應，這就是為什麼我們降低了幾個合同價格的原因連續幾個月。

Before I ask my second question, I just wanted to get a clarification. Did you say that Q2 earnings would be lower than Q1 of '23 or lower than Q2 of '22?

在我問第二個問題之前，我只是想澄清一下。你是說第二季度的收益會低於 23 年的第一季度還是低於 22 年的第二季度？

Lower than Q1 of 2023, just based on our decreased methanol prices that we've had over the last few months.

低於 2023 年第一季度，僅基於我們過去幾個月的甲醇價格下降。

And then my question would be then, so in the commission phase of G3, that's great and still targeting first production for Q4. Is there a path if things go right, you could have first production in Q3? Like what would have to happen to that first production in Q3? Or is that not possible?

然後我的問題是，所以在 G3 的調試階段，這很好，並且仍然以第四季度的首次生產為目標。如果一切順利，有沒有辦法在第三季度進行首次生產？就像第三季度的第一批產品會發生什麼？或者那是不可能的？

Yes. Maybe just I'll speak to G3. So during the quarter, we completed our 60% construction completion review. This is the kind of last real deep dive on both cost and schedule. And that confirmed both our cost estimates of $1.25 million to $1.3 million as well as our expected start-up timing in the fourth quarter. We are really concentrated first and foremost on safety for this project. And then, of course, quality as well. And so we're not we feel really good about the progress that we're making there and the time lines we have is to deliver high-quality projects safely on time, on budget.

是的。也許我會和 G3 談談。因此，在本季度，我們完成了 60% 的施工竣工審查。這是對成本和進度的最後一次真正深入研究。這證實了我們 125 萬至 130 萬美元的成本估計以及我們預計的第四季度啟動時間。我們真的首先關注這個項目的安全。然後，當然，質量也是如此。因此，我們對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常滿意，我們的時間表是按時、按預算安全地交付高質量的項目。

Your next question is from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Two questions for me, one long term and one short term. On the long term, Rich, when you think out kind of 5, 7, 10 years into the future, can you talk about the possibility of a new project for Methanex. Is that something you're thinking about? And if so, what would the kind of time line be and what locations would you be thinking about?

我有兩個問題，一個是長期的，一個是短期的。從長遠來看，Rich，當你考慮到未來 5 年、7 年、10 年時，你能談談 Methanex 新項目的可能性嗎？這是你在考慮的事情嗎？如果是這樣，時間線是什麼樣的？您會考慮哪些地點？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. When we look out, we're seeing -- when we look out, we see favorable demand-supply outlook certainly in the medium and longer term. That's -- we are watching current economic headwinds for the pace of demand growth, obviously. But when we take even modest growth rates without considering a lot of the potential demand for marine fuels, we don't see a lot of capacity additions. Now G3 positions us really well in the medium term. But to deliver a project even today with the work that has to be done, even when you're starting today, it would be -- wouldn't be until the end of the decade before you kind of add a project.

是的。謝謝，本。當我們向外看時，我們看到 - 當我們向外看時，我們肯定會在中長期看到有利的供需前景。那就是 - 顯然，我們正在觀察當前經濟逆風對需求增長速度的影響。但是，當我們在不考慮對船用燃料的大量潛在需求的情況下採用即使是適度的增長率時，我們也看不到大量的產能增加。現在 G3 在中期為我們定位得很好。但是即使在今天交付一個必須完成的工作的項目，即使你今天開始，也不會是——直到本世紀末你才添加一個項目。

So we are going to be -- what we're looking at right now is just advancing a portfolio of options that we have. This wouldn't be any meaningful capital in the next few years, but it's really just creating options for the company about deciding which of the next best growth opportunities are out there and which is the one we would want to focus on. That doesn't mean we are going to commit. Obviously, we would take our time to assess where the market is at and where we want to be from a growth perspective. But the time lines are, if you start today, even if you're an option select, that will take a few years and then you get into feed activities and then FID and into construction and start-up, you're already at the end of the decade before you'd have a new project.

所以我們將成為——我們現在正在研究的只是推進我們擁有的一系列選擇。在接下來的幾年裡，這不會是任何有意義的資本，但它實際上只是為公司創造了選擇，以決定哪些是下一個最好的增長機會，哪些是我們想要關注的。這並不意味著我們要承諾。顯然，我們會花時間從增長的角度評估市場所處的位置以及我們想要達到的位置。但是時間線是，如果你今天開始，即使你是一個選項選擇，那也需要幾年時間，然後你進入飼料活動，然後是 FID，進入建設和啟動，你已經在在你有一個新項目之前的十年結束。

And just as a follow-up to that, how do you balance some of the idle plants such as White tera Valley or Titan or even in Chile, it doesn't run through the summer -- would it be something that you would consider possibly relocating one of those plants? Or is this something that would be greenfield? Or is it just way too early right now?

作為後續行動，你如何平衡一些閒置的植物，如 White tera Valley 或 Titan，甚至在智利，它不會貫穿整個夏天——你會考慮可能嗎搬遷其中一家工廠？還是這將是綠地？還是現在還為時過早？

I think the few options we have, we're looking both at brownfields as well as -- so we have brownfield opportunities within our portfolio. Obviously, Geismar, Medicine Hat, we have land in Egypt. We also look at greenfield sites in other regions as well. In terms of relocation, it's an option, but probably not the focus. I think when we look at moving plants, it's the economic advantages aren't necessarily there. But it's not something we're totally closed off to. I mean right now, our main focus is getting enough gas to bring those plants online, and our focus would be to try to have opportunities to utilize that capacity where it's in place. But yes, we're looking at both brownfield as well as greenfield offering...

我認為我們有幾個選擇，我們正在考慮棕地以及 - 所以我們在我們的投資組合中有棕地機會。很明顯，Geismar，Medicine Hat，我們在埃及有土地。我們也關注其他地區的綠地。在搬遷方面，這是一種選擇，但可能不是重點。我認為當我們考慮移動工廠時，經濟優勢並不一定存在。但這並不是我們完全拒之門外的事情。我的意思是，現在，我們的主要重點是獲得足夠的天然氣以使這些工廠上線，我們的重點將是嘗試有機會利用現有的產能。但是，是的，我們正在研究棕地和綠地產品……

And then just my quick short-term question. You talked about the cost curve. You talked about supply and demand and a little bit about trade flow. Can you just talk about inventories? Where are inventories through the channel? Is it -- are they elevated in terms of what you have visibility towards?

然後是我的快速短期問題。你談到了成本曲線。你談到了供求關係和貿易流量。你能談談庫存嗎？通過渠道的庫存在哪裡？是嗎 - 它們是否在您的可見性方面有所提升？

I think it's probably a bit of a tail of -- it depends which market you're looking in. We've had very, very low inventories in the Asian markets in China. And I think even when you look today, we're probably not back to where average inventories would be. That's -- there is product we would expect that, that might be partially solved with some more product coming on from Iran, but still below average there. And then when you look in the Atlantic markets with recent operating rates, certainly, that's why you saw some of the pricing you did in the U.S. was because we had to get the volume that needs to be export in that market. Europe is probably in that balanced inventory levels and then the U.S. was getting high and having to export. So it depends on overall where you are in the world. But I'd say right now, we're in a kind of overall balanced market today.

我認為這可能有點尾巴——這取決於你在尋找哪個市場。我們在中國亞洲市場的庫存非常非常低。而且我認為即使你今天看，我們也可能不會回到平均庫存水平。那就是 - 我們期望有一些產品可以通過來自伊朗的更多產品來部分解決，但仍低於那裡的平均水平。然後，當你以最近的開工率查看大西洋市場時，當然，這就是為什麼你看到你在美國所做的一些定價是因為我們必須獲得該市場需要出口的數量。歐洲可能處於平衡的庫存水平，然後美國的庫存水平越來越高，不得不出口。所以這取決於你在世界上的總體位置。但我現在要說的是，我們今天處於一種整體平衡的市場中。

Your next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

I just wanted to revisit near-term supply-demand fundamentals. Obviously, in the commentary, a bunch of puts and takes around supply. I mean, obviously, you guys mentioned Natgas being redirected in Q1 in Iran and China. And obviously, now operating rates sort of picking up over there. Obviously, a new facility expected to come online in China this year, G3 as well. but some sort of positive commentary on the demand side with China reopening and the like. So I guess the question is that with all of these puts and takes, both on the supply and the demand side of it, do you still expect 2023 to be a year where demand growth outstrip supply growth? Also keeping in mind how sequentially, obviously, in Q1, demand growth was relatively flat.

我只是想重新審視近期的供需基本面。顯然，在評論中，一堆看跌期權和看跌期權圍繞供應。我的意思是，很明顯，你們提到 Natgas 在第一季度在伊朗和中國被重定向。顯然，現在那裡的開工率有點回升。顯然，預計今年將有一個新設施在中國上線，G3 也是如此。但對中國重新開放等需求方面的某種積極評論。所以我想問題是，考慮到所有這些供需雙方的看跌期權，您是否仍預計 2023 年將是需求增長超過供應增長的一年？還要記住，顯然，在第一季度，需求增長相對平穩。

Yes, it's a good question, Ahmed. So we're obviously looking at that really closely right now. We saw demand sort of when we look at what happened coming into Q1, demand came down quite meaningfully in Q4, and then that was our base heading into Q1. What we would say is that it starts starting to look better at the tail end of Q1, but overall, we saw flat demand Q4 to Q1. What we see in the different segments is that we look at the traditional demand segment, and we'll be coming into the housing and construction season, which should help demand. In China, certainly, the post-Chinese New lunar New Year and the opening up impact, we are expecting some positivity there. We haven't seen -- it's been a little slower than what we would have anticipated for traditional demand.

是的，這是個好問題，艾哈邁德。所以我們現在顯然正在密切關注這一點。當我們觀察第一季度發生的事情時，我們看到了某種需求，第四季度需求大幅下降，然後這就是我們進入第一季度的基礎。我們要說的是，它在第一季度末開始變得更好，但總體而言，我們看到第四季度到第一季度的需求持平。我們在不同的細分市場中看到的是，我們著眼於傳統的需求細分市場，我們將進入住房和建築旺季，這應該有助於需求。當然，在中國，農曆新年過後和開放的影響，我們期待那裡出現一些積極因素。我們還沒有看到——它比我們對傳統需求的預期要慢一些。

And then on the MTO side, we saw steadily increasing rates through Q1, and then we have 2 plants in the process of starting up, which is 1.5 million tons of demand. So overall, we still need to see more demand growth from where we are today, I think, to balance off some of the supply that's coming into the market. And when we look overall I think when we look at Q1 annualized Q1 annualized is certainly not back to where 2022 full year was. So we need to see continued demand growth to see overall growth in the industry, which would mean a balanced market with new supply. The really G3 is starting up in the fourth quarter, so it isn't going to impact really the market until we get into the first quarter of 2024, really. So not a lot of new capacity being added. We are really closely watching demand and seeing where are we going to be in an overall growth for the year. We do expect that today, but we're watching very closely.

然後在 MTO 方面，我們看到整個第一季度的利率穩步上升，然後我們有 2 家工廠正在啟動，這是 150 萬噸的需求。因此，總的來說，我認為我們仍然需要看到比今天更多的需求增長，以平衡進入市場的一些供應。當我們整體看時，我認為當我們看第一季度的年度化時，第一季度的年度化肯定不會回到 2022 年全年的水平。因此，我們需要看到持續的需求增長才能看到該行業的整體增長，這將意味著一個具有新供應的平衡市場。真正的 G3 在第四季度啟動，所以它不會真正影響市場，直到我們進入 2024 年第一季度，真的。所以沒有增加很多新容量。我們真的在密切關注需求，看看我們今年的整體增長會在哪裡。我們今天確實希望如此，但我們正在密切關注。

Understood. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, kind of something you alluded to towards the end of your answer, just the G3 ramp-up, I mean, you obviously talked about first production in Q4. But obviously, you guys, particularly in Geismar, have had relatively recent sort of startup experiences. So how should we expect to see that ramp up through the course of Q4? And when do you think we will be at sort of full production with regards to G3?

明白了。很有幫助。作為後續行動，你在回答的最後提到了一些東西，只是 G3 的升級，我的意思是，你顯然談到了第四季度的首次生產。但很明顯，你們這些人，尤其是在 Geismar 的人，都有相對較新的創業經歷。那麼我們應該如何期望在第四季度的過程中看到這種增長呢？你認為我們什麼時候可以全面生產 G3？

Yes, I probably wouldn't get too specific here with this. I mean we have our schedule, and there's a lot of puts and takes to that. But maybe just give you a sense of where we're at on the actual project and how that start-up phase happens. Today, where we're at, we were in mechanical construction has been the focus -- we've been working on a lot of the piping installation, the welding that all that takes to build the plant. We've now shifted into electrical installation, fireproofing, painting, and we're working on system turnover. So that means handing the systems over to the different parts of the plant. We're also getting into activities like steam blowing and hydro testing of the piping system. So all of those things have to take place, and we've got it all scheduled in for a start-up. So that once we actually go to start up the plant, it's a period of weeks, not months. So we're confident in the start-up schedule in the fourth quarter, and I wouldn't get too precise as its actual timing there.

是的，我可能不會在這裡說得太具體。我的意思是我們有我們的時間表，並且有很多投入和投入。但也許只是讓您了解我們在實際項目中所處的位置以及啟動階段是如何發生的。今天，在我們所處的位置，我們一直在關注機械結構——我們一直在進行大量的管道安裝、建造工廠所需的焊接工作。我們現在已經轉向電氣安裝、防火、油漆，我們正在努力進行系統周轉。因此，這意味著將系統移交給工廠的不同部分。我們還參與了管道系統的蒸汽吹掃和水壓測試等活動。所以所有這些事情都必鬚髮生，我們已經為一家初創公司安排好了一切。因此，一旦我們真正開始啟動工廠，就是幾周而不是幾個月的時間。所以我們對第四季度的啟動時間表充滿信心，我不會像那裡的實際時間那樣太精確。

Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Steve Hansen 和 Raymond James。

Just a quick follow-up, Rich, to some of your remarks earlier on Joel's question, I believe. Can you remind us as to how the G3 contract structures work in terms of the sales, where you're targeting geography-wise? How much of the volume is already contracted. Just we can get a sense for how the volumes are going to flow here once we go live.

我相信，Rich 只是快速跟進你之前對 Joel 的問題發表的一些評論。您能否提醒我們 G3 合同結構如何在銷售方面發揮作用，您的目標是地理區域？已經收縮了多少體積。一旦我們上線，我們就可以了解流量將如何流向這裡。

Sure. So maybe the way we think we grew our sales position last year, and we probably grew our sales position to a level. I think you'll see that we're kind of trending in 11.5 million tonne sales range. When we think to next year, we don't need a lot of sales growth to position in GI. So we've already really pre-marketed at least half of that plant today. What we did last year is we grew and I think we grew pretty balanced with more of a heavily waiting to the Atlantic markets. And as we think to this year, we'll probably see a modest increase in our sales position, but we weren't looking to -- we don't need to be in the market to -- in a heavy way for recontracting or more contracting for G3. What you'll likely see is a lower level of purchasing in our system once G3 starts up. So there will be a balance between lower purchasing and some increased sales for next year.

當然。因此，也許我們認為我們去年增加了銷售職位的方式，我們可能將銷售職位提高到了一個水平。我想你會看到我們在 1150 萬噸的銷售範圍內有點趨勢。當我們考慮到明年時，我們不需要大量的銷售增長來定位 GI。所以我們今天已經真正預售了至少一半的植物。去年我們所做的是我們成長了，我認為我們的成長非常平衡，更多的是對大西洋市場的等待。正如我們對今年的想法，我們可能會看到我們的銷售頭寸略有增加，但我們並不希望——我們不需要進入市場——以一種沉重的方式重新簽約或G3的更多承包。 G3 啟動後，您可能會看到我們系統中的採購水平較低。因此，明年採購量減少和銷售量增加之間將取得平衡。

Okay. That's helpful. Yes, that's really the perspective. I guess, trying to think about it in the context to some degree of where the price points will be hit. There's quite a delta between Asian contracted prices in North America. I know you talked about underwriting the economics of the plant as an export facility to Asia, but I didn't know if that volume was going to flow necessarily.

好的。這很有幫助。是的，這確實是觀點。我想，試著在某種程度上考慮價格點將受到影響的背景。北美的亞洲合同價格之間存在相當大的差異。我知道你談到要承保該工廠作為亞洲出口設施的經濟性，但我不知道該數量是否必然會流動。

Yes. I think last year, we did increase a fair amount in the Atlantic markets, and that was on the basis of a lot of the Russian sanctions and a lot of Russian material flowing to different -- needing to flow to different markets. So I think we were successful there. We'll be looking at where we'll be marketing. We don't have a huge need for sales growth for next year. So I think we're in a really good position to be selective on what markets we'll be selling into.

是的。我認為去年，我們確實在大西洋市場增加了相當數量，這是基於許多俄羅斯制裁和大量俄羅斯材料流向不同的 - 需要流向不同的市場。所以我認為我們在那裡取得了成功。我們將研究我們將在哪裡進行營銷。我們對明年的銷售增長沒有很大的需求。所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以選擇我們將銷售的市場。

Okay. Helpful. And then just one quick follow-up on the capital allocation, the dividend going up in line roughly with the buyback. Is that a good way to think about future allocation going forward? You're going to have a lot of cash flow, of course, in the next year and beyond. I presume the buyback will continue, but should we expect the dividend sort of increase with the same pace that this year buyback goes out?

好的。有幫助。然後只是對資本配置的快速跟進，股息的增加與回購大致一致。這是考慮未來分配的好方法嗎？當然，在明年及以後，您將擁有大量現金流。我認為回購將繼續，但我們是否應該期望股息以與今年回購相同的速度增長？

Yes. I think what we want on the dividend is we have -- we want it to be sustainable. And I think part of that will be when we see improvements in the dividend. We -- sorry, improvements in the business. I think we will look at the dividend. We have had a preference for flexible distributions with share repurchases. But with G3 coming online, it's a chest to look at the dividend as well. So I don't want to say that that's just -- that's the only way to think about it going forward.

是的。我認為我們想要的股息是我們擁有的——我們希望它是可持續的。我認為部分原因是當我們看到股息有所改善時。我們 - 抱歉，業務有所改善。我想我們會看看股息。我們傾向於通過股票回購進行靈活分配。但是隨著G3的上線，看紅利也是一件大事。所以我不想說那隻是——這是未來思考它的唯一方法。

Your next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess, first of all, as China reopens, where do you see the combination of MTO DME and industrial boiler demand going in the next couple of years? How much flex should we be thinking about for the supply demand balance?

我想，首先，隨著中國重新開放，您如何看待未來幾年 MTO DME 和工業鍋爐需求的組合？我們應該為供需平衡考慮多少彈性？

Sure. I mean when we look, maybe starting from today, Laurence, when you look at maybe Q1, when we look at MTO today, I think MTO operating rates in the first quarter around 65% or so is the number we have. That represents around 14 million to 14.5 million tons. There's about 21 million tonnes of capacity. So a 10% increase in that operating rate is about 2 million tons of demand. And typically, we've seen 80% to 90% operating rates. And so I think if olefins is in a healthier position and is operating at what we've seen at historical rates, there's probably 3 million tons of structural demand there.

當然。我的意思是，當我們看時，也許從今天開始，勞倫斯，當你看第一季度時，當我們今天看 MTO 時，我認為第一季度的 MTO 開工率約為 65% 左右。這代表大約 1400 萬噸到 1450 萬噸。產能約為2100萬噸。因此，開工率增加 10% 大約是 200 萬噸的需求。通常，我們看到 80% 到 90% 的開工率。因此，我認為如果烯烴處於更健康的狀態並且以我們所看到的歷史速度運行，那麼那裡可能有 300 萬噸的結構性需求。

When we think about China reopening on other derivatives, obviously, traditional derivatives will -- those will run with GDP and economic growth, and there's a considerable amount of traditional derivative demand in China. And then on the other energy applications, similarly with more movement around the country and the economy growing, you're going to have higher demand for transportation fuels, heating and cooking. So that will also impact that. I think that the numbers for traditional demand in China is the equivalent of about 20 million tons per year. And then the energy demand in China is about 15 million to 20 million tons. So obviously, we think the China reopening has a meaningful impact. We haven't seen it really translate yet today, but you can kind of apply those growth rates to those volumes if it's -- hopefully, that's helpful.

當我們考慮中國重新開放其他衍生品時，顯然，傳統衍生品將——那些將與 GDP 和經濟增長一起運行，而且中國有相當大的傳統衍生品需求。然後在其他能源應用方面，同樣地，隨著全國范圍內更多的流動和經濟的增長，你將對運輸燃料、取暖和烹飪有更高的需求。所以這也會影響它。我認為中國傳統需求的數字相當於每年約2000萬噸。那麼中國的能源需求大約是1500萬到2000萬噸。很明顯，我們認為中國重新開放具有有意義的影響。今天我們還沒有看到它真正轉化，但你可以將這些增長率應用於那些數量，如果它是 - 希望這會有所幫助。

Very helpful. And then can you give us a sense, we've had a bit more time to digest the U.S. and European stimulus packages, where you see kind of the various proposed green methanol platform showing -- coming on the cost curve after subsidies. And then I guess related to that, we're hearing a lot more about ammonia as a competitor for methanol and in the -- to replace the bunker fuel. Can you give us a sense for where you see the arbitrage there playing out?

很有幫助。然後你能給我們一個感覺嗎，我們有更多的時間來消化美國和歐洲的刺激計劃，你會看到各種提議的綠色甲醇平台顯示——在補貼後出現在成本曲線上。然後我想與此相關的是，我們聽到了更多關於氨作為甲醇的競爭對手以及 - 取代船用燃料的消息。你能告訴我們你在哪裡看到套利活動嗎？

Sure. Maybe start with the first question on regulations. I think that probably the most significant regulations that are -- we're looking at right now is the inflation Reduction Act is the one that I know a lot of companies are looking at opportunities under the inflation reduction. So certainly, we're looking at the economics of carbon capture and Geismar under the inflation reduction on both because of that government incentive as well as the infrastructure that's being built for carbon capture. So preliminarily, those -- the capital costs are large. And certainly, the government sense has helped, but there's premiums still required in the market to make that project go forward. As it relates to greenfields, there's various subsidies that are out there that are driving some demand. The U.K. fuel blending market, we think, is around 150,000 to 200,000 tons of green methanol going into that market.

當然。也許從第一個有關法規的問題開始。我認為可能是最重要的法規——我們現在正在研究的是《降低通脹法》，我知道很多公司都在尋找降低通脹的機會。因此，當然，我們正在研究碳捕獲和 Geismar 在通貨膨脹降低的情況下的經濟學，這既是因為政府的激勵措施，也是因為正在為碳捕獲建造的基礎設施。所以初步來看，那些 - 資本成本很大。當然，政府的意識有所幫助，但市場仍需要溢價才能推進該項目。與綠地相關的是，各種補貼正在推動一些需求。我們認為，英國燃料混合市場大約有 150,000 至 200,000 噸綠色甲醇進入該市場。

A lot of the demand, though, is being driven on just customers' willingness to pay. We're seeing increased interest in paying a premium for low carbon methanol. So -- and we're in discussions with a lot of shipping companies in that regard. So that's a bit about the regulations. On the competitiveness side, when we think about the shipping market, the shipping market by itself represents on an energy equivalent basis, probably 400 million to 500 million tons of annual methanol demand. So the shipping market is huge. And when we think about methanol, ammonia, hydrogen to future shipping fuels, there's a lot of room for everyone. And as shipping companies commit to vessels, which is already at 4 million tons of demand potential and growing because we already are hearing other commitments.

不過，很多需求都是由客戶的支付意願驅動的。我們看到人們越來越有興趣為低碳甲醇支付溢價。所以——我們正在與許多航運公司就這方面進行討論。所以這與法規有關。在競爭力方面，當我們考慮航運市場時，航運市場本身就相當於能源當量，每年可能需要 4 億至 5 億噸甲醇。所以航運市場是巨大的。當我們考慮將甲醇、氨、氫氣轉化為未來的航運燃料時，每個人都有很大的發展空間。隨著航運公司對船舶的承諾，其需求潛力已經達到 400 萬噸，並且還在增長，因為我們已經聽到了其他承諾。

So I expect that number is going to continue to grow. -- once that decision is made, it becomes not a competing against ammonia or hydrogen, it's really about economics to the diesel alternative. And so I think there's going to be demand potential there, and it's going to come down to methanol's cost competitiveness against diesel and as well the cost to decarbonize both those fuels as well. So we're really, really excited about that opportunity and our low carbon solutions group is actively working in this space to see what opportunities lie ahead and what solutions we can provide to the shipping industry.

所以我預計這個數字會繼續增長。 ——一旦做出決定，它就不再是與氨或氫的競爭，而是與柴油替代品的經濟性有關。所以我認為那裡會有需求潛力，這將歸結為甲醇相對於柴油的成本競爭力，以及將這兩種燃料脫碳的成本。所以我們對這個機會真的非常興奮，我們的低碳解決方案小組正在這個領域積極工作，看看未來有哪些機會以及我們可以為航運業提供哪些解決方案。

And if I may, as you mentioned, kind of shippers already -- or sorry, not shippers, customers already discussing in some areas, sort of the green premium. Is that showing up in terms of -- do you have a sense for what size of premium is being discussed? And is it also showing up in terms of longer-term offtake agreements? Or is it really just for transactions?

如果我可以，正如你提到的，已經有一些托運人——或者抱歉，不是托運人，客戶已經在某些地區討論過一些綠色溢價。這是否體現在 - 您是否了解正在討論的保費規模？它是否也出現在長期承購協議中？或者它真的只是為了交易？

I'm going to say it's early. And certainly, something that with the 0 carbon voyage that zero-carbon voyage, I mentioned in the opening remarks, that was based on renewable natural gas, and we're obviously active in the renewable natural gas market, and we're having discussions with shipping companies about whether that makes sense to do longer term for their needs. And so we're hoping to be able to announce things going forward, but still early discussions.

我要說現在還早。當然，我在開場白中提到的零碳航行是基於可再生天然氣的零碳航行，我們顯然活躍於可再生天然氣市場，我們正在討論與航運公司討論長期滿足他們的需求是否有意義。因此，我們希望能夠宣布未來的事情，但仍處於早期討論階段。

Your next question is from the line of Matthew Blair with TDH.

你的下一個問題來自 TDH 的 Matthew Blair。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the operations in New Zealand in the quarter. Op rates look quite strong, but you held your 2023 guidance unchanged, I believe. So yes, any more details on New Zealand would be great.

我希望你能多談談本季度在新西蘭的業務。手術率看起來相當強勁，但我相信您保持 2023 年的指導不變。所以是的，如果能提供更多有關新西蘭的詳細信息，那就太好了。

Yes. So we did have a strong quarter in New Zealand. And it was in line with our expectations. When we look actually for the remainder of the year, we said that we have 3 turnarounds this year, and we will be doing some maintenance in New Zealand this year. So we are holding to our production forecast for the year. When we look at New Zealand, we have 2 primary suppliers there OMV and Todd and the production volumes and forecasts we provide are based off of us working with them on the results of their production and their upstream activities that they're working on. So we continue to hold to the forecast today, and we're quite comfortable at this level for the next few years, and we're working with them on the results of their work that they are doing in the Taranaki Basin and we'll continue to provide guidance on where that leaves us on production forecast. But that's why we're holding to the number that we have for the year.

是的。所以我們在新西蘭確實有一個強勁的季度。這符合我們的預期。當我們實際查看今年剩餘時間時，我們說今年有 3 次周轉，今年我們將在新西蘭進行一些維護。因此，我們堅持今年的產量預測。當我們看新西蘭時，我們有 2 個主要供應商 OMV 和 Todd，我們提供的產量和預測是基於我們與他們合作，了解他們的生產結果和他們正在進行的上游活動。所以我們今天繼續堅持預測，我們對未來幾年的這個水平相當滿意，我們正在與他們合作，研究他們在塔拉納基盆地所做的工作結果，我們將繼續為我們在生產預測方面留下的地方提供指導。但這就是為什麼我們堅持今年的數字。

Sounds good. And then could you expand a little bit more on your R&D efforts? I guess, what percent of your total feedstock is RNG and -- and how might that change going forward? Do you ever see yourself moving into the actual RNG production market? And what's the driver here? Is this coming from customer request? Or is this Methanex looking to comply with GHG targets and ESG targets?

聽起來不錯。然後你能在你的研發工作上多做一點嗎？我想，您的總原料中有多少百分比是 RNG 以及 - 未來會發生什麼變化？你有沒有看到自己進入實際的 RNG 生產市場？這裡的司機是什麼？這是來自客戶的要求嗎？或者這家 Methanex 是否希望遵守 GHG 目標和 ESG 目標？

Yes. So maybe just in terms of the size of that business today, it's relatively small. So today, we have really one contract that's on a longer-term R&D contract, very, very small volume, but it's a good starting point. And then in terms of what's driving it, it really is based on customers. So we have interest from the shipping industry as well as some traditional chemical customers that are interested in green methanol. Of course, this comes at a meaningful premium. And so we're working with them on -- and the way to contract, the best contract is to have longer-term offtakes and longer-term customer commitments.

是的。所以也許就今天的業務規模而言，它相對較小。所以今天，我們真的有一份長期研發合同的合同，數量非常小，但這是一個很好的起點。然後就驅動它的因素而言，它實際上是基於客戶。因此，我們引起了航運業以及一些對綠色甲醇感興趣的傳統化工客戶的興趣。當然，這是一個有意義的溢價。因此，我們正在與他們合作——以及簽訂合同的方式，最好的合同是擁有更長期的承購和更長期的客戶承諾。

So we're working with both of those segments on their interest in green methanol. In terms of the RNG market, the total RNG market in North America is about the equivalent of 3 million tonnes of methanol demand. And there's competition for that as well because a lot of the RNG goes into natural gas vehicles. So it's certainly an area that we want to explore, and we want to work with our customers on. We're not the only offtaker for that R&D, so there's a competitive perspective to it, that we also have to consider. And so yes, we're exploring that certainly off of customer interest, and we're excited about the opportunities and working with customers on that.

因此，我們正在與這兩個部門合作，了解他們對綠色甲醇的興趣。就RNG市場而言，北美地區RNG市場總量約相當於300萬噸甲醇需求量。而且這方面也存在競爭，因為很多 RNG 都用於天然氣汽車。所以這當然是我們想要探索的一個領域，我們希望與我們的客戶合作。我們不是該研發的唯一承購商，因此我們也必須考慮競爭的角度。所以是的，我們正在探索這當然是出於客戶的興趣，我們很高興有機會並與客戶合作。

Your next question is from the line of Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 Nelson Ng 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

First question is just a follow-up to Steve's question about production and sales mix. So I guess based on your commentary, should we assume that after Q3 is up and running and fully producing the sales mix within the regions like Asia, China, U.S. and Europe. Should we assume that the sales mix will be relatively stable? Or will more products go into China?

第一個問題只是史蒂夫關於生產和銷售組合的問題的後續問題。所以我想根據你的評論，我們是否應該假設在第三季度開始運行並全面生產亞洲、中國、美國和歐洲等地區的銷售組合後。我們是否應該假設銷售組合將相對穩定？還是會有更多的產品進入中國？

I think assuming a relatively stable sales mix is what we would guide to similar to what we've guided in the past.

我認為假設一個相對穩定的銷售組合是我們將指導的類似於我們過去指導的。

Okay. And the next question, it sounds like, based on your commentary, the China reopening ramp-up is taking place slower than expected. Do you have any kind of early signs in terms of how things are progressing after -- I guess, after the Lunar New Year. And like are you seeing any recent ramp-up? Or are things still kind of slow going in China?

好的。下一個問題，根據你的評論，中國重新開放的速度似乎比預期的要慢。你有沒有任何關於事情進展的早期跡象——我猜是在農曆新年之後。就像您看到最近的增長一樣嗎？還是中國的事情進展緩慢？

Well, on the MTO side, certainly, we're seeing ramp up there. I think that's based off of some improved economics as well as increased methanol availability. Just a reminder that a lot of Iranian supply is -- does get supplied into MTO, and we believe that, that gets supplied at a discount to international prices as well. So that makes it more attractive and helps the affordability for the MTO industry. On the other energy applications, I think we're seeing some signs of strength in the MTB vehicle fuels and cooking and thermal applications. And that's just based on general movement and more economic activity in the country.

好吧，在 MTO 方面，當然，我們看到那裡正在增加。我認為這是基於一些改進的經濟性以及增加的甲醇可用性。只是提醒一下，伊朗的大量供應 - 確實供應到 MTO，我們相信，這也以低於國際價格的價格供應。因此，這使其更具吸引力，並有助於 MTO 行業的負擔能力。在其他能源應用方面，我認為我們在 MTB 車輛燃料以及烹飪和熱應用方面看到了一些強勢跡象。這只是基於該國的一般運動和更多經濟活動。

We haven't seen on the traditional chemical side yet. -- the demand pull from those segments. And so that's something we're watching closely. And we do see signs of manufacturing numbers seem to be -- indicate growth. Export numbers seem to be showing up better. Sometimes this does take its way -- a time to get back to methanol because we're kind of in the starting point of the value chain. And so sometimes that's a bit of inventories and things that have to be worked through. But we're watching it closely to see when the timing when we start to see demand there. But as of today, we haven't seen traditional chemical applications growth that we would anticipate with a 5% GDP growth.

我們還沒有在傳統化學方面看到。 - 來自這些細分市場的需求拉動。所以這是我們正在密切關注的事情。我們確實看到製造業數字的跡像似乎是——表明增長。出口數字似乎表現得更好。有時這確實會發生——是時候回到甲醇了，因為我們有點處於價值鏈的起點。因此，有時這是一些庫存和必須解決的事情。但我們正在密切關注它，看看什麼時候開始看到那裡的需求。但截至今天，我們還沒有看到我們預期 GDP 增長 5% 時傳統化學應用的增長。

Your next question is from the line of Jacob Bout with CIBC.

你的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

I had a question here just on your thoughts around M&A. I know historically, the focus has been either greenfield or brownfield. But how do you think about M&A in the current market, even with, say, some of your competitors looking at strategic reviews or that type of thing. Is that something on your radar? Or how are you pushing that?

我在這裡有一個關於你對併購的看法的問題。我知道歷史上，重點一直是綠地或棕地。但是你如何看待當前市場中的併購，即使你的一些競爭對手正在考慮戰略審查或類似的事情。那是你的雷達上的東西嗎？或者你是如何推動它的？

Yes. I'd say we always keep -- want to keep it on our radar. Obviously, when we look out, we certainly see the industry growing and notwithstanding there is some slowdown today. But when we look further out, we see demand growing with not a lot of capacity additions. And obviously, M&A doesn't achieve the growth. But when we think about M&A, it's not something we want to be closed off to if there's opportunities out there that makes sense, then we'll look at it. It is a lot -- it is harder sometimes depending on the location of those assets, what kind of synergies do you pick up. We've got G3 coming online, which is -- we're very excited about. It's an Atlantic-based asset. And so we'd have to think carefully about what kind of synergies are created by any M&A activity and ensuring the value is right that we get out of it. So -- but certainly not closed off to it and remain open to discussions on it.

是的。我會說我們一直保持 - 想把它放在我們的雷達上。顯然，當我們往外看時，我們肯定會看到該行業在增長，儘管今天有所放緩。但當我們放眼未來時，我們會發現需求在增長，但產能增加並不多。顯然，併購並沒有實現增長。但是當我們考慮併購時，如果有有意義的機會，我們不想關閉它，然後我們會看看它。很多——有時更難，這取決於這些資產的位置，你會獲得什麼樣的協同效應。我們已經讓 G3 上線了，這讓我們非常興奮。這是一項位於大西洋的資產。因此，我們必須仔細考慮任何併購活動會產生什麼樣的協同效應，並確保我們從中獲得的價值是正確的。所以——但肯定不會對它關閉並保持開放的態度來討論它。

Okay. And then my second question is just how you're approaching gas hedging right now. I mean gas prices move down quite significantly over the past quarter. So how are you approaching it and how much have you locked in?

好的。然後我的第二個問題是你現在如何處理天然氣對沖。我的意思是天然氣價格在過去一個季度大幅下降。那麼你是如何接近它的，你鎖定了多少？

So today, we're 85% hedged for 2023. Our target is to be in the outer years kind of first 1 to 3 years is to be around 70% hedged across our North America portfolio. And we're about -- we're all the way there for 2024 and 2025 with G3 operating. When we look beyond the kind of 2025 time frame, we're less hedged. So we're obviously actively watching what happens at the kind of medium or longer end of the curve. The pricing, notwithstanding the current pricing, the pricing at that longer and hasn't come down to where the levels that we'd like to see. And so we're still being patient to bring more hedges in there. But we're watching it closely. We've heard that, obviously, there's some -- in today's environment, there's a lot of anticipation of LNG capacity additions being added in more demand in that longer time frame. We've heard some of that's under pressure with increased capital cost as well as regulatory, potential regulatory changes. So we're watching that and to see if that moves the back end of the curve down and creates an opportunity for more hedging.

所以今天，我們在 2023 年進行了 85% 的對沖。我們的目標是在頭 1 到 3 年的外部年份，在我們的北美投資組合中進行約 70% 的對沖。我們即將 - 我們將在 2024 年和 2025 年與 G3 一起運作。當我們超越 2025 年的時間框架時，我們就會減少對沖。因此，我們顯然正在積極觀察曲線的中端或較長端會發生什麼。定價，儘管是當前的定價，但定價更長而且還沒有降到我們希望看到的水平。因此，我們仍然耐心地在那裡引入更多的對沖。但我們正在密切關注它。我們聽說，顯然，在今天的環境中，有很多人預計在更長的時間範圍內會增加更多的液化天然氣產能。我們聽說其中一些面臨資本成本增加以及監管和潛在監管變化的壓力。因此，我們正在觀察這一點，看看這是否會使曲線的後端向下移動並為更多對沖創造機會。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

（操作員說明）你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

And just to be clear. Okay. And just on the hedging, we're talking about U.S. gas explicitly not your whole portfolio, correct?

需要明確的是。好的。就對沖而言，我們談論的是美國天然氣，而不是你的整個投資組合，對嗎？

That's correct, yes. Okay.

沒錯，是的。好的。

And just I wanted to ask on the agreement announced in Egypt on that infrastructure development pipeline. Does that change anything for you? Is there any additional capacity creep needed to feed that at some time? Or does that change the mix or pricing of that product? Just curious on any thoughts around that.

我只是想問一下在埃及宣布的關於基礎設施開發管道的協議。這對你有什麼改變嗎？在某個時候是否需要任何額外的容量蠕變來滿足它？或者這會改變該產品的組合或定價嗎？只是對周圍的任何想法感到好奇。

No. No. This is formaldehyde build-out right next door. So this has been a plant that's been in the plans for quite some time. We're really pleased that we signed a supply agreement. It's relatively modest volume in terms of methanol supply per year in the kind of 40,000 tonnes of methanol supplies, which will be pipeline supplied right next door, where that's the best the best business we can do with our customers is just pipeline right next door. So we're very happy to be supporting that project. It doesn't -- given that level of sales that doesn't move the needle really in terms of anything to think about in our sales mix or anything like that. But we're very happy to be sort of supporting that project and supporting any customers downstream demand build out.

不，不，這是隔壁的甲醛積聚。所以這是一個已經計劃了很長時間的工廠。我們很高興我們簽署了供應協議。就每年 40,000 噸的甲醇供應量而言，它的甲醇供應量相對較小，這將在隔壁管道供應，這是我們能與客戶做的最好的業務就是隔壁的管道管道。所以我們很高興能夠支持該項目。事實並非如此——考慮到在我們的銷售組合或類似的事情中要考慮的任何事情，這種銷售水平並沒有真正改變針頭。但我們很高興能夠支持該項目並支持任何客戶的下游需求建設。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回 Rich Sumner 先生。

Thank you for your questions and interest in our company. Looking forward, we are well positioned with our current asset portfolio and a strong balance sheet. Our G3 project is fully funded, progressing safely on time and on budget, and we expect to be in production in the fourth quarter of this year. We hope you will join us in July when we update you on our second quarter results.

感謝您對我們公司提出的問題和興趣。展望未來，我們目前的資產組合和強大的資產負債表處於有利地位。我們的 G3 項目資金充足，按時按預算安全推進，我們預計將在今年第四季度投產。我們希望您能在 7 月加入我們，屆時我們將向您介紹我們的第二季度業績。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。