Mayville Engineering Company Inc (MEC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello everyone and thank you for joining the Mayville Engineering Company first quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Sammy and I'll be coordinating your call today [operator instruction]

    大家好,感謝您參加梅維爾工程公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Sammy,今天我將負責協調你的通話[操作員指令]

  • I'd now like to hand over to your host, Stefan Neely, Mayville advisor to begin. Stefan, please go ahead.

    現在我想把時間交給主持人、梅維爾顧問 Stefan Neely。史蒂芬,請繼續。

  • Stefan Neely - Investor Relations

    Stefan Neely - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. On behalf of our entire team, I'd like to welcome you to our first quarter, 2025 results conference call. Leading the call today is MEC's President and CEO Jag Reddy, and Rachele Lahr, Chief Financial Officer. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about future business and financial expectations. Actual results may differ significantly from those projected in today's forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties, including the risks described in our periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. Further, this call will include the discussion of certain non-gap financial measures. Reconciliation of these measures to the closest GAAP financial measure is included in our quarterly earnings press release, which is available at macinc.com. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jag.

    謝謝您,接線生。我謹代表我們整個團隊歡迎您參加我們的 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是 MEC 總裁兼執行長 Jag Reddy 和財務長 Rachele Lahr。今天的討論包含有關未來業務和財務預期的前瞻性陳述。由於各種風險和不確定性,包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中所述的風險,實際結果可能與今天的前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。此外,本次電話會議也將討論某些非缺口財務措施。這些指標與最接近的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在我們的季度收益新聞稿中,您可以在 macinc.com 上查閱。在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開放提問熱線。說完這些,我想把電話轉給 Jag。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Stefan, and good morning everyone. Our first quarter results reflected the team's strong execution and operational discipline. This allowed us to deliver 12% sequential sales growth, margin expansion, and positive free cash flow, despite softer customer demand amid continued inventory destocking. Our team's commitment to the MBX framework, culture of continuous improvement, and cost discipline contributed 140 basis points in sequential adjusted EBITDA margin improvement.

    謝謝你,史蒂芬,大家早安。我們第一季的業績反映了團隊強大的執行力和營運紀律。儘管由於庫存持續減少導致客戶需求疲軟,我們仍實現了 12% 的連續銷售成長、利潤率擴大和正自由現金流。我們團隊對 MBX 框架、持續改善文化和成本控制的承諾為連續調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高貢獻了 140 個基點。

  • These efforts to create a leaner cost structure allows us to operate more efficiently in this dynamic demand environment and create a platform to respond better when customer demand returns. Rachele will discuss the outlook in more detail shortly, but I would like to mention that we are maintaining our full year guidance. Our outlook is driven by strong year-to-date execution and stronger than expected demand within our less cyclical military and other markets. That said, we are closely monitoring the evolving regulatory and macroeconomic environment which could impact demand in the second half of the year. At MAC, we are proud to be the largest domestic metal fabricator with approximately 95% of our sales and 92% of our sourcing coming from within the United States. As we await more clarity on the long-term direction of US trade policy, our business is well positioned to remain highly competitive as policy shifts occur and should be relatively insulated from the direct impact of tariffs. Our domestic footprint also enables us to benefit from OEM reshoring activity, a trend that is being accelerated by the ongoing changes in US trade policy. We have recently been engaged with numerous new and existing customers who are exploring options to reposition their supply chain. Given the dynamic nature of our current trade policy, we expect that this trend will take time to develop.

    這些創建更精簡成本結構的努力使我們能夠在這種動態需求環境中更有效率地運營,並創建一個平台,以便在客戶需求恢復時做出更好的回應。Rachele 很快就會更詳細地討論前景,但我想提一下,我們仍維持全年指導。我們的前景受到年初至今強勁的執行力以及週期性較小的軍事和其他市場超出預期的需求的推動。儘管如此,我們正在密切關注不斷變化的監管和宏觀經濟環境,這可能會影響下半年的需求。在 MAC,我們很自豪能夠成為國內最大的金屬製造商,我們約 95% 的銷售額和 92% 的採購都來自美國境內。在我們等待美國貿易政策的長期方向更加明朗之際,我們的業務已做好準備,能夠在政策轉變時保持高度競爭力,並且相對不會受到關稅的直接影響。我們的國內業務也使我們能夠從 OEM 回流活動中受益,這一趨勢正因美國貿易政策的持續變化而加速。我們最近與眾多新舊客戶進行了接觸,他們正在探索重新定位其供應鏈的方案。鑑於我們當前貿易政策的動態性質,我們預計這一趨勢需要時間來發展。

  • Turning now to a more detailed review of market conditions across our primary and markets. Let's begin with our commercial vehicle market, which represents approximately 38% of our trailing 12-month revenues. Net sales to this market were $50.9 million in the first quarter, a decrease of 13.7% versus the prior year period. Our net sales outperform the broader commercial vehicle market by 300 basis points as evidenced by a reported 16.7% EUR decrease in North American Class A truck production, according to ACT research. Our outperformance was driven primarily by new project launches. As we look forward to 2025, ACT Research currently forecasts the Class A vehicle production to decrease 22.9% year over year in 2025 to approximately 256,000 units.

    現在來更詳細地回顧我們的主要市場和市場狀況。讓我們從商用車市場開始,該市場約占我們過去 12 個月收入的 38%。第一季該市場的淨銷售額為 5,090 萬美元,較去年同期下降 13.7%。根據 ACT 的研究,我們的淨銷售額比更廣泛的商用車市場高出 300 個基點,這從北美 A 級卡車產量下降 16.7% 可以看出。我們的優異表現主要得益於新項目的推出。展望 2025 年,ACT Research 目前預測 2025 年 A 級汽車產量將年減 22.9% 至約 256,000 輛。

  • Uncertainty around the impact of tariffs, possible regulation changes, and freight rates are expected to weigh on demand in 2025, pushing up the recovery into 2026. That said, both our current guidance and ACT's forecast for 2025 do not fully reflect the potential impact of the commercial vehicle demand that would result from a recession or the repeal of EPA emissions requirements. Looking out to 2026, the latest ACT forecast also continues to show full year production growing by 18.3% relative to 2025. This is driven by demand for new vehicles ahead of the deadline for compliance with EPA emissions regulations in 2027.

    預計關稅影響、可能的法規變化和運費的不確定性將對 2025 年的需求造成壓力,並將復甦推至 2026 年。話雖如此,我們目前的指導和 ACT 對 2025 年的預測都沒有充分反映出經濟衰退或廢除 EPA 排放要求對商用車需求的潛在影響。展望 2026 年,最新的 ACT 預測也將繼續顯示全年產量將比 2025 年增加 18.3%。這是由於在 2027 年美國環保署排放法規合規期限之前對新車的需求。

  • The power sports market represented approximately 16% of our trailing 12-month revenues and decreased by 26.5% on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter. Performance during the quarter continues to be driven by customer channel inventory destocking and soft customer demand. This was partially offset by the impact of new project ramp ups due to the current economic landscape and uncertainty around tariffs, we remain cautious on spend for high ticket customer discretionary items. Next is the construction and access market which represented approximately 15% of our trailing 12-month revenues. Our construction and access revenue decreased 31.4% on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter. This reflects soft demand across both non-residential and public infrastructure markets, partially offset by ongoing new customer wins.

    動力運動市場約占我們過去 12 個月營收的 16%,第一季年減 26.5%。本季業績持續受到客戶通路庫存去化和客戶需求疲軟的推動。由於當前的經濟狀況和關稅的不確定性,這部分抵消了新項目增加的影響,我們對高價客戶非必需品的支出保持謹慎。接下來是建築和接入市場,約占我們過去 12 個月收入的 15%。第一季度,我們的建設和接入收入較去年同期下降了31.4%。這反映了非住宅和公共基礎設施市場的需求疲軟,但被持續不斷的新客戶贏得部分抵消。

  • We are closely monitoring non-residential and infrastructure demand trends. If a better than anticipated economic environment or lower interest rates can drive a recovery in construction activity, we would expect demand to recover. We do see the risk that an economic downturn could possibly prolong the current softness that we are seeing in this market. Our agricultural market represented approximately 8% of trailing 12-month revenues and decreased by 26.9% on a year-on-year basis during the first quarter. Our results reflect weakness in both large and small agricultural markets. The outlook for ag remains increasingly uncertain as interest rates and inventory destocking have slowed demand. While agriculture customers are farther along with inventory destocking than customers in other segments, the impact of trade policy on crop demand has created uncertainty for farmers and the outlook for equipment demand.

    我們正在密切關注非住宅和基礎設施需求趨勢。如果經濟環境優於預期或較低的利率能夠推動建築活動的復甦,我們預期需求將會復甦。我們確實看到了經濟衰退可能延長當前市場疲軟狀態的風險。我們的農業市場約佔過去 12 個月營收的 8%,第一季年減 26.9%。我們的結果反映出大型和小型農業市場均存在疲軟現象。由於利率和庫存去庫存導致需求放緩,農業前景仍然越來越不確定。雖然農業客戶在庫存去化方面比其他領域的客戶走得更遠,但貿易政策對農作物需求的影響給農民和設備需求前景帶來了不確定性。

  • Turning now to an overview of substantial new business wins during the first quarter. Our team continues to execute well on our commercial growth initiatives and are already progressing well toward our annual goal of $100 million in new business wins. We have continued to expand our share with our commercial vehicle customers as they launch their next generation models leading into the EPA regulation changes. Many of these products support future growth and will be launching in 2026 and 2027.

    現在來回顧第一季取得的大量新業務成果。我們的團隊繼續出色地執行我們的商業成長計劃,並且已經朝著我們每年贏得 1 億美元新業務的目標邁進了一步。隨著商用車客戶推出下一代車型以適應 EPA 法規的變化,我們繼續擴大在商用車客戶中的份額。其中許多產品支持未來成長,並將於 2026 年和 2027 年推出。

  • After some strategic wins last quarter, we continue to expand our market share with our Axis customer as they continue to evaluate their global supply base. Our US manufacturing facilities located near the customer remains a key differentiator, consistently delivering the best value within their supply chain. In the quarter we were able to secure a significant program update from our aluminium extrusions business, extending a multi-year contract. This project is priced utilizing our updated value pricing model which will expand profitability over the life of the program. Within our power sports market, we are seeing customers focus on introducing their next generation products which we expect will be a catalyst for additional commercial growth in the coming quarters. In the quarter we secured multiple new model update wins with the primary construction customer as we further expand share with this customer across multiple product lines. Our team's execution of the MBX framework continues to deliver measurable results. We have been focused on implementing pricing improvements and disciplined cost management to strengthen our overall financial profile. The effectiveness of our MBX initiatives is particularly evident in our working capital efficiency, which has resulted in consistent operating cash flow generation.

    在上個季度取得一些策略性勝利之後,我們繼續擴大與 Axis 客戶的市場份額,因為他們繼續評估其全球供應基礎。我們的美國製造工廠靠近客戶,這仍然是一個關鍵的區別因素,始終如一地為他們的供應鏈提供最佳價值。本季度,我們成功地從鋁擠壓業務中獲得了一個重要的專案更新,延長了一份多年合約。該專案採用我們更新的價值定價模型進行定價,這將擴大專案整個生命週期的獲利能力。在我們的動力運動市場中,我們看到客戶專注於推出他們的下一代產品,我們預計這將成為未來幾季額外商業成長的催化劑。本季度,我們與主要建築客戶簽訂了多項新車型更新合同,並進一步擴大了與該客戶在多條產品線上的份額。我們團隊對 MBX 框架的執行持續帶來可衡量的成果。我們一直致力於實施價格改進和嚴格的成本管理,以增強我們的整體財務狀況。我們的 MBX 計劃的有效性在我們的營運資本效率上尤其明顯,這帶來了持續的營運現金流產生。

  • During the first quarter we generated $5.4 million in free cash flow, resulting in free cash flow conversion of 44% of adjusted EBITDA. This comes during a quarter where we typically experience networking capital pressure. For the past few years we have instilled lean manufacturing practices into our business, focusing on high return, capital li automation advancements, supporting our planned growth and improved efficiency. These enhancements combined with our other MBX initiatives drove consistent profitability. This helped us execute on our capital allocation strategy which prioritizes debt repayment, opportunistic share repurchases, and strategic creative acquisitions.

    第一季度,我們產生了 540 萬美元的自由現金流,導致自由現金流轉換為調整後 EBITDA 的 44%。這是我們通常面臨網路資本壓力的一個季度。過去幾年來,我們將精益生產實踐融入我們的業務中,專注於高回報、資本流動自動化進步,支持我們的計劃成長和效率提高。這些改進與我們的其他 MBX 計劃相結合,實現了持續盈利。這有助於我們執行資本配置策略,該策略優先考慮債務償還、機會性股票回購和策略性創意收購。

  • During the first quarter, our net leverage was 1.4 times, excluding any M&A activity, we expect to be below 1 times net debt leverage by the end of 2025. Additionally, we repurchased $1.7 million of our common stock under our share repurchase program. Over the course of the last two years, we have returned $9.6 million of capital to shareholders through repurchases totalling more than646,000shares. With more than $17 million remaining under the existing authorization, we remain committed to consistent share repurchases. At a minimum, we plan to repurchase $5million to $6 million to offset the dilution from our annual stock compensation awards beyond our minimum repurchase threshold. We will evaluate additional repurchases using a returns-based approach that takes into consideration opportunities to grow our business and create value through acquisitions.

    第一季度,我們的淨槓桿率為 1.4 倍,不包括任何併購活動,我們預計到 2025 年底淨債務槓桿率將低於 1 倍。此外,我們也根據股票回購計畫回購了價值 170 萬美元的普通股。在過去兩年中,我們透過回購總計超過 646,000 股股票向股東返還了 960 萬美元的資本。在現有授權下剩餘超過 1,700 萬美元的情況下,我們仍致力於持續回購股票。我們計劃至少回購 500 萬至 600 萬美元,以抵消超出最低迴購門檻的年度股票薪酬獎勵的稀釋。我們將採用基於回報的方法來評估額外的回購,同時考慮透過收購來發展業務和創造價值的機會。

  • M&A remains a cornerstone of our value creation strategy as we seek to expand into high growth adjacent end markets and diversify our customer base. Our team has cultivated a pipeline of acquisition targets that align with our strategic criteria. While we are actively pursuing these opportunities to build upon our market leading capabilities, we remain disciplined and committed to driving long term shareholder value. In summary, I am extremely proud of our team's strategic execution as seen by our strong first quarter performance. We have adapted to shifting and market demands by recalibrating our cost structure and improving our operational efficiency.

    當我們尋求擴展到高成長的鄰近終端市場並實現客戶群多元化時,併購仍然是我們價值創造策略的基石。我們的團隊已經培養了一系列符合我們策略標準的收購目標。在我們積極尋求這些機會來鞏固我們的市場領先能力的同時,我們仍然嚴守紀律並致力於推動長期股東價值。總而言之,從我們第一季的強勁表現可以看出,我對我們團隊的策略執行感到非常自豪。我們透過重新調整成本結構和提高營運效率來適應不斷變化的市場需求。

  • As the largest vertically integrated value-added manufacturing partner in the US, we offer a comprehensive suite of solutions that make us a true one stop partner. We support our customers throughout the entire product life cycle from concept to full scale production with a strong presence in the industrial heartland and robust end to end capabilities, we are uniquely positioned to support OEMs accelerating their onshoring efforts in response to shifting US trade policies and the global rebalancing of supply chains. Despite a dynamic and uncertain macroeconomic environment, I remain confident in our ability to expand market share, capitalize on emerging tailwinds such as domestic manufacturing incentives and tariff structures, and maintain disciplined execution.

    作為美國最大的垂直整合增值製造合作夥伴,我們提供全面的解決方案,使我們成為真正的一站式合作夥伴。我們憑藉在工業中心地帶的強大影響力和強大的端到端能力,在從概念到全面生產的整個產品生命週期內為客戶提供支持,我們擁有獨特的優勢,可以支持原始設備製造商加快其在岸外包工作,以應對不斷變化的美國貿易政策和全球供應鏈的重新平衡。儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿活力且充滿不確定性,我仍然對我們擴大市場份額、利用國內製造業激勵措施和關稅結構等新興順風因素以及保持嚴謹執行的能力充滿信心。

  • Importantly, as we continue to work closely with our OEM partners, we remain acutely focused on monitoring macroeconomic and regulatory developments across our end markets. In anticipation of potential demand shifts, our teams have developed a comprehensive set of contingency plans that can be deployed swiftly to preserve profitability and operational agility. These plans include flexible production scheduling, targeted fixed cost reductions, and the consolidation of certain manufacturing processes to improve efficiency. Should we begin to see material regulatory changes or recessionary pressures, we are well positioned to take decisive action to manage through the cycle while safeguarding our margin profile. Our continued focus remains on driving consistent profitable growth and creating sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I will now turn the call over to Rachele to review our financial results.

    重要的是,隨著我們繼續與 OEM 合作夥伴密切合作,我們仍然高度關注終端市場的宏觀經濟和監管發展。為了應對潛在的需求變化,我們的團隊制定了一套全面的應急計劃,可以迅速部署以保持盈利能力和營運靈活性。這些計劃包括靈活的生產調度、有針對性的固定成本削減以及整合某些製造流程以提高效率。如果我們開始看到重大監管變化或經濟衰退壓力,我們就可以採取果斷行動來管理整個週期,同時保護我們的利潤率。我們將繼續致力於推動持續的獲利成長並為股東創造可持續的長期價值。說完這些,我現在將電話轉給 Rachele 來審查我們的財務結果。

  • Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

    Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jag, and good morning, everyone. Total sales for the first quarter decreased 15.9% year over year to $135.6 million. This decrease was due to softer customer demand across the majority of the company's key end markets and customer channel inventory destocking. This is partially offset by volume from new projects in our other end market and increased aftermarket demand in our military end market. Our manufacturing margin was $15.3 million in the first quarter as compared to $20.9 million in the same prior year period. The decrease was primarily driven by the corresponding decrease in net sales. Our manufacturing margin rate was 11.3% for the first quarter of 2025 compared to 13% for the prior year period. The decrease in our manufacturing margin rate was attributable to lower fixed cost absorption from lower customer sales, partially offset by cost reduction actions. Other selling general and administrative expenses were $8.7 million for the first quarter of 2025 or 6.4% of net sales as compared to $7.8 million for the same prior year period or 4.8% of net sales. The increase in these expenses during the first quarter primarily reflects normal wage inflation and higher costs related to compliance requirements, market analysis studies, and other consulting expenses.

    謝謝你,Jag,大家早安。第一季總銷售額年減 15.9% 至 1.356 億美元。下降的原因是該公司大部分主要終端市場的客戶需求疲軟以及客戶通路庫存減少。這部分被我們其他終端市場的新項目數量和軍事終端市場售後需求的增加所抵消。我們第一季的製造利潤為 1,530 萬美元,而去年同期為 2,090 萬美元。下降主要是由於淨銷售額相應下降所致。2025 年第一季我們的製造業利潤率為 11.3%,而去年同期為 13%。我們的製造利潤率下降是由於客戶銷售下降導致的固定成本吸收減少,但成本削減措施部分抵消了這種影響。2025 年第一季其他銷售一般及行政費用為 870 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 6.4%,而去年同期為 780 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 4.8%。第一季這些費用的增加主要反映了正常的薪資通膨以及與合規要求、市場分析研究和其他諮詢費用相關的成本增加。

  • These costs will ease as the year progresses and as customer demand returns, we expect that our SGNA will revert to our long-term targeted range of between 4.5% to 5.5% of sales. Interest expense was $1.6 million for the first quarter of 2025 as compared to $3.4 million in the prior year period due to a reduction in borrowings and lower interest rates relative to the first quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $12.2 million versus $18.5 million for the same prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin percent decreased by 250 basis points to 9% in the current quarter as compared to 11.5% for the same prior year period. Our adjusted EBITDA margin decrease was attributable to lower sales partially offset by cost rationalization initiatives.

    隨著時間的推移和客戶需求的回升,這些成本將會降低,我們預計 SGNA 將恢復到我們長期目標範圍,即銷售額的 4.5% 至 5.5% 之間。2025 年第一季的利息支出為 160 萬美元,而去年同期的利息支出為 340 萬美元,原因是藉款減少且利率與去年第一季相比有所下降。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,220 萬美元,去年同期為 1,850 萬美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率下降 250 個基點至 9%,而去年同期為 11.5%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率下降是由於銷售額下降,但成本合理化措施部分抵消了這一影響。

  • Turning now to our statement of cash flows and balance sheet. Free cash flow during the first quarter of 2025 was $5.4 million as compared to $7.9 million in the prior year period. The decrease in free cash flow as compared to the prior year reflects the impact of lower sales offset partially by net networking capital efficiencies. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, our debt, which includes bank debt, financing agreements, and finance lease obligations, with $80.6 million down from $143.1 million at the end of the first quarter of 2024 and resulted in a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times as of March 31.

    現在來看看我們的現金流量表和資產負債表。2025 年第一季的自由現金流為 540 萬美元,去年同期為 790 萬美元。與前一年相比,自由現金流的減少反映了銷售額下降的影響,但被淨網絡資本效率部分抵銷。截至 2025 年第一季末,我們的債務(包括銀行債務、融資協議和融資租賃債務)從 2024 年第一季末的 1.431 億美元下降至 8,060 萬美元,截至 3 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 1.4 倍。

  • Now turning to a review of our 2025 financial guidance. We are maintaining our 2025 financial guidance which we introduced earlier this year. We continue to expect net sales of between $560 million and $590 million. Adjusted EBITDA of between $60 million and $66 million dollars and free cash flow between $43 million and $50 million dollars. This guidance incorporates shifting market expectations as the outlook has improved for some but softened for others. For our commercial vehicle and market, we expect sales to decrease low single digits. The construction and access market to be flat to down below single digits. The power sports market is expected to decrease mid-single to low double digits. The agriculture market to be down by mid 20%. The military market is now expected to be mid-teens increase. And we expect our other end markets to be a high [10s] increase.

    現在來回顧我們的 2025 年財務指引。我們維持今年稍早推出的 2025 年財務指引。我們繼續預期淨銷售額將在 5.6 億美元至 5.9 億美元之間。調整後的 EBITDA 在 6,000 萬美元至 6,600 萬美元之間,自由現金流在 4,300 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元之間。該指引考慮了不斷變化的市場預期,因為部分市場的前景有所改善,但其他市場的前景則有所減弱。對於我們的商用車和市場,我們預計銷量將下降個位數。建築和接入市場將保持平穩,甚至低於個位數。預計力量運動市場將出現中等個位數至低兩位數的下降。農業市場將下滑20%左右。目前預計軍事市場將實現十五六倍的增幅。我們預計其他終端市場也將實現 10% 左右的高成長。

  • As Jag mentioned, there are many evolving dynamics within our end markets. We recognize the rising degree of uncertainty in these markets individually and across the broader economic environment. While we are continuing to monitor developments closely with our OEM customers, our guidance currently does not reflect a potential recessionary environment later in the year or any commercial vehicle emissions rule changes that could impact demand later in the year.

    正如 Jag 所提到的,我們的終端市場中存在著許多不斷變化的動態。我們認識到這些市場以及整個更廣泛的經濟環境的不確定性程度正在上升。雖然我們將繼續與 OEM 客戶密切關注事態發展,但目前的指導並未反映出今年稍後可能出現的經濟衰退環境或可能影響今年稍後需求的任何商用車排放規則變化。

  • In anticipation of the potential for a recession or possible changes in the commercial vehicle regulations, we have created a playbook to navigate each of these scenarios. For each, we have plans to swiftly scale our operating activities in response to demand and tactically reduce our fixed costs to preserve our margins. With respect to tariffs, we expect minimal direct financial impact to Mac as our contracts and pricing MEChanisms enable us to pass through increases in raw material costs to our customers. Well, these pass-throughs are expected to be modestly margin dilutive, the impact is minimal and has been fully contemplated within our current guidance.

    為了因應可能出現的經濟衰退或商用車法規的變化,我們制定了應對每種情況的方案。對於每一個,我們都計劃根據需求迅速擴大我們的經營活動,並策略性地降低我們的固定成本以維持我們的利潤率。關於關稅,我們預計對 Mac 的直接財務影響很小,因為我們的合約和定價機制使我們能夠將原材料成本的增加轉嫁給我們的客戶。嗯,這些轉嫁預計會適度稀釋利潤率,但影響很小,並且已在我們目前的指導中充分考慮到。

  • Furthermore, embedded within our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1 million to $3 million of cost improvement driven by our MBX Operational excellence and strategic Value-based pricing initiative net of inflationary pressures. As it relates to free cash flow guidance, we expect that our capital expenditures for the year will be in a range between $13 million and $17 million dollars. Based on our free cash flow guidance and excluding any M&A activity. We expect to be below 1 times net debt leverage by year end. With that operator that concludes our prepared remarks, please open the line for questions as we begin our question-and-answer session.

    此外,我們 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引中包含了 100 萬至 300 萬美元的成本改善,這得益於我們的 MBX 卓越營運和基於戰略價值的定價計劃扣除通膨壓力。就自由現金流指引而言,我們預計今年的資本支出將在 1,300 萬美元至 1,700 萬美元之間。根據我們的自由現金流指導,不包括任何併購活動。我們預計到年底淨債務槓桿率將低於 1 倍。接線生結束我們準備好的發言後,請打開提問專線,我們就開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [operator instruction]

    [操作員指令]

  • Our first question comes from Ross Sparenblek and William Blair. Your line is open, please go ahead.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Ross Sparenblek 和 William Blair。您的線路已開通,請繼續。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys.

    嘿,大家早安。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Morning, Ross.

    早安,羅斯。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Hey, let me just to kick it off here, you think about kind of, the cadence of the in markets for the second half. Can you maybe just kind of walk us through anything that stands out? It looks like maybe commercial vehicles have a slight ramp in the second half, whereas Power Sport sag maybe more steady on the top line.

    嘿,讓我先從這裡開始,你想想下半年市場的節奏。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下有哪些突出之處?看起來商用車在下半年可能會略有成長,而動力運動車的營收可能會更穩定下滑。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that is correct, Ross. Our current guidance, as we indicated earlier in March when we released our guidance, includes a slight uptick in the CD market in the second half that is related to potential 2027 regulation changes and pre-buys in both 2025 and 2026. We also said in March that Our first half is going to be approximately equal to the second half of last year, 2024, and that we expect a modest increase with potential pre-buys and also potential interest rate changes in the second half of 2025. In relates to power sports, right, that market continues to be highly interest rate dependent, and we don't expect any significant changes in demand forecast in power sports. And similarly in agriculture, we do not expect any recovery in 2025 and expect the recovery to take some shape in 2026.

    是的,羅斯,沒錯。正如我們在 3 月初發布指引時所指出的,我們目前的指引包括下半年 CD 市場將略有回升,這與 2027 年潛在的監管變化以及 2025 年和 2026 年的預購有關。我們也在 3 月表示,我們的上半年銷售額將與去年下半年(2024 年)的銷售額大致相當,並且我們預計 2025 年下半年可能會出現小幅增長,同時還可能出現預購和利率變化。就動力運動而言,該市場仍然高度依賴利率,我們預計動力運動的需求預測不會有任何重大變化。同樣,在農業方面,我們預計 2025 年不會出現任何復甦,但預計復甦將在 2026 年初見成效。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe just touching on tariffs and the potential for reshoring, and seeing opportunities, and if so, if there are any markets that stand out.

    好的。也許只是談論關稅和回流的潛力,並看到機會,如果有的話,是否有任何突出的市場。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We continue to have good discussions with both existing customers and new customers as it relates to tariffs. We have provided a number of customers with quotes and pricing on potential opportunities. Given the dynamic nature of current tariff discussions and our customers are being very conservative. And they're not in a position yet to make significant decisions because the tariffs sort of magically go away in three months, right? They don't want to be stuck with a different price structure in their supply chain. So, I think, just like all of our customers are also watching day to day the developments and if there is a significant tariff impact, I think MAC is well positioned to capture those opportunities as we mentioned. Prepared remarks. We're 100% domestic manufacturer. 92% of our inputs are US sourced. If you include some of the Canadian purchases of aluminium that we get, which were actively sourcing back to the US, I. Almost 95% to 96% of our inputs are domestically sourced. Given that and our locations that are really favorable to our customers' operations, we're really well positioned to take advantage of any increased tariff regime we might see in the long run.

    我們繼續與現有客戶和新客戶就關稅問題進行良好的討論。我們已經為許多客戶提供了潛在機會的報價和定價。鑑於當前關稅討論的動態性質,我們的客戶非常保守。而且他們還不能做出重大決定,因為關稅會在三個月內神奇地消失,對嗎?他們不想被供應鏈中不同的價格結構所束縛。因此,我認為,就像我們所有的客戶也在每天關注事態發展一樣,如果關稅產生重大影響,我認為 MAC 完全有能力抓住我們提到的這些機會。準備好的評論。我們是 100% 國內製造商。我們的投入有 92% 源自美國。如果算上我們從加拿大購買的部分鋁,這些鋁正在積極地回購到美國,那麼我們幾乎 95% 到 96% 的投入都來自國內。鑑於這一點,加上我們的位置確實有利於客戶的運營,我們完全有能力利用長期可能看到的任何增加的關稅制度。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Okay, so if we were just, assume that tariffs are structural, what are, what is like the average, on boarding timeline for a customer. Just so you said it could be 2025 or if it would be 2026.

    好的,如果我們只是假設關稅是結構性的,那麼客戶的平均登機時間表是什麼樣的。正如您所說的,可能是 2025 年,也可能是 2026 年。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I think by let's say by middle of the year we see some really structural tariff regimes in place. We could start up a program as quickly as three to four months and depending on the size of the program, I could even be shorter than that. So there is a potential if we see a static. Tariff regime by the middle of the year there is a potential for us certainly late Q3 early Q4 for us to see some incremental benefit and tailwind to make.

    是的,我認為到今年年中我們會看到一些真正結構性的關稅制度到位。我們可以在短短三到四個月內啟動一個項目,根據項目的規模,我甚至可以縮短這個時間。因此,如果我們看到靜態,則存在潛力。今年年中之前實施的關稅制度,對我們來說,很有可能在第三季末、第四季初看到一些增量效益和順風。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you for that. I'll jump back.

    好的,謝謝你。我會跳回去。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right thanks Ross.

    好的,謝謝羅斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ted Jackson from Northland Securities. Your line is open, please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Securities 的 Ted Jackson。您的線路已開通,請繼續。

  • Ted Jackson - Analyst

    Ted Jackson - Analyst

  • Thanks. First of all, congratulations on just being able to control the things that you can control, it's impressive. My question is, sorry, I'm in an airport, so it's a little noisy in here, the, when you went through the outlook for your different segments, I didn't catch quite everything. What did you say for agriculture and what did you say for power sports?

    謝謝。首先,恭喜你能夠控制自己能夠控制的事情,這令人印象深刻。我的問題是,抱歉,我在機場,所以這裡有點吵,當您介紹不同部分的前景時,我沒有聽清所有內容。您對農業有何看法?您對力量運動有何看法?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, agriculture, we expect ag market at least our revenues to be down mid-20s, and power sports, we expect to be down somewhere between low single digits, sorry, mid-single digits to mid 10s.

    是的,就農業而言,我們預計農業市場至少我們的收入將下降 20% 左右,而動力運動方面,我們預計收入將下降 10% 左右,抱歉,應該是 10% 左右。

  • Ted Jackson - Analyst

    Ted Jackson - Analyst

  • Okay, the guide surprised me. I mean, the colour coming out of anyone who has any exposure within the commercial vehicle marketplaces. I mean, it's just [H1stly] it's terrible and I mean I think that the tenor is that it's perhaps going to get worse before it gets better and the ability for you to offset with things like military and others impressive. So, with that in mind, could you maybe provide a little more colour about what's driving the improved outlook for both of those segments.

    好吧,導遊讓我很驚喜。我的意思是,任何在商用車市場有過接觸的人都會有這種感覺。我的意思是,這真是太糟糕了,而且我認為情況可能會先變得更糟,然後才會好轉,而你用軍事和其他手段來抵消這種影響的能力令人印象深刻。那麼,考慮到這一點,您能否更詳細說明一下推動這兩個領域前景改善的因素。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, so let me address the CV market first, Ted, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we are qualifying our guidance maintenance on two factors given that CVs are almost 40% of our revenues. First one is recession. We're not building in any recession in the second half into our guidance. In fact, as we said, we're expecting a slight pickup in the second half revenues. number two is we're not building in any potential impact of potential cancellation of EPA regulation changes. So let me get into that a little bit more. The current guidance incorporates some level of pre-buys in the second half of this year and also going into 2026. If for any reason EPA decides to change the new regulations that are set to come in in 2027, there are two effects to that regulation change. The first one is what's called the GHG changes. Level three GHG three changes that really doesn't impact any of our commercial vehicle customer volumes. That regulation only requires that. Sorry, that GHG three regulations, phase three regulations imply that the industry has to produce more electrical vehicles. So if that gets cancelled, we don't expect our customers to see any significant volume impact. That means we won't see any significant volume.

    是的,那麼讓我先談談 CV 市場,Ted,正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,鑑於 CV 幾乎占我們收入的 40%,我們根據兩個因素對我們的指導維持進行限定。第一個是經濟衰退。我們的預期中並未考慮下半年可能出現的任何經濟衰退。事實上,正如我們所說,我們預計下半年收入將略有回升。第二,我們沒有考慮到 EPA 法規變更可能取消的潛在影響。讓我進一步詳細討論這一點。目前的指導方針包括今年下半年以及 2026 年一定程度的預購。如果出於任何原因,EPA 決定修改將於 2027 年實施的新法規,那麼該法規的修改將產生兩種影響。第一個是所謂的溫室氣體變化。三級溫室氣體減排的三種變化實際上不會影響我們的任何商用車客戶數量。該法規僅要求這樣做。抱歉,溫室氣體三項法規、第三階段法規意味著該產業必須生產更多的電動車。因此,如果取消,我們預計我們的客戶不會看到任何重大的銷售影響。這意味著我們不會看到任何顯著的成交量。

  • The second part of the 2027 regulation changes is what's called the SA changes. Today, the current engines are. To produce up to 200 mg of NOx emissions, whereas the 2027 regulations require the engine makers and the CV OEMs to get down to about 35 mg of NOx emissions. That is currently set in law. So let me repeat that. That is currently set in law to go into effect in 2027. That is a significant lift for the administration to change that. It has to go and change the law and then suspend the 2027 regulation changes. If that happens, that is a material event for the industry. So, I want to caution that, it's a heavy lift to change that, but if it does happen, then it's a material change to the industry that will affect the pre-bison 2025, that will affect the pre bison 2026. But if you take a long arc of a three-year period, right, the volumes are just going to normalize. The volumes are not going to disappear. It's just they're going to normalize versus this, peaks and valleys we normally see in the CD market, right? So that is really where we are. So as we sit here, we're maintaining our guidance with those two caveats. No recession in the second half and no 2027 NOx changes from EPA. If we find that, these changes are going to happen in the coming months, we're happy to revisit our guidance and we're happy to inform all of you what the impact might be on our 2025 and 2026 revenues.

    2027 年法規變化的第二部分是所謂的 SA 變化。今天,當前的引擎是。產生高達 200 毫克的 NOx 排放量,而 2027 年法規要求引擎製造商和 CV OEM 將 NOx 排放量降至約 35 毫克。這是目前法律所規定的。讓我重複一遍。該法案目前已製定,將於 2027 年生效。這對於政府改變現狀具有重大意義。它必須去修改法律,然後暫停 2027 年的法規變更。如果發生這種情況,那對該行業來說是一件重大事件。因此,我想提醒大家,改變這一點是一項艱鉅的任務,但如果真的發生了,那麼這將是對行業的重大改變,將影響 2025 年之前的野牛計劃,也將影響 2026 年之前的野牛計劃。但如果以三年為一個較長的時間週期來看,交易量就會恢復正常。這些卷不會消失。他們只是要將這種我們通常在 CD 市場上看到的高峰和低谷正常化,對嗎?這就是我們目前的狀況。因此,當我們坐在這裡時,我們會在這兩個警告的基礎上維持我們的指導。下半年不會出現經濟衰退,EPA 也不會對 2027 年 NOx 做出任何改變。如果我們發現這些變化將在未來幾個月內發生,我們很樂意重新審視我們的指導,並很高興告知大家這可能會對我們 2025 年和 2026 年的收入產生什麼影響。

  • Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

    Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I would just add this goes back to your opening statement, Ted, control what we can control. And so that's where we have developed our playbook of the different scenarios. And so should any of these events take place, we have the playbook lined out so we can execute swiftly and control our margins, manage our margins.

    我還要補充一點,這可以追溯到你開場白,泰德,控制我們能控制的事情。這就是我們針對不同場景制定劇本的地方。因此,如果發生任何此類事件,我們都會制定行動計劃,以便能夠迅速執行並控制我們的利潤,管理我們的利潤。

  • Ted Jackson - Analyst

    Ted Jackson - Analyst

  • And I was remiss and not welcoming you to the quarterly calls. I look forward to working with you.

    我疏忽了職責,沒有歡迎您參加季度電話會議。我期待與您合作。

  • Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

    Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Ted.

    謝謝你,泰德。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Your line is open, please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。您的線路已開通,請繼續。

  • Natalie block - Analyst

    Natalie block - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. This is Natalie block on behalf of Andy Kaplowitz.

    嗨,早安。這是代表 Andy Kaplowitz 的 Natalie block。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Morning, Natalie.

    早安,娜塔莉。

  • Natalie block - Analyst

    Natalie block - Analyst

  • So, I guess the first question that I want to ask is like based on your team's com based on your commercial team's engagement, how would you characterize the tone of customer conversations today versus three to six months ago? Are customers, in a more reactive way and see mode, or are they still proactively exploring new projects?

    所以,我想我要問的第一個問題是,根據您團隊的溝通情況以及您商業團隊的參與度,您如何描述今天與三到六個月前客戶對話的基調?客戶是否以更被動的方式看待問題,還是仍在積極探索新專案?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say that the customers in certain markets like Ag and Par spores, they are continuing to focus on destocking and continue to alter their production volumes to make sure that the channel inventories get cleared out. So, in those markets, the conversations have been slightly muted, even though in our prepared remarks we talked about winning new business in construction, winning new business in power sports, etc.

    我想說的是,某些市場(例如 Ag 和 Par spores)的客戶正在繼續專注於去庫存,並繼續改變其產量,以確保渠道庫存得到清理。因此,儘管我們在準備好的發言中談到了贏得建築業的新業務、贏得動力運動的新業務等,但在這些市場中,對話略顯沉悶。

  • So, we are actively engaged with every one of our customers, but we also recognize that our OEMs have their own challenges that they're trying to deal with, and we're standing by them to support their activities, whether it's new product introductions, whether it is channel inventory reductions or preparing. For 2027 launches, as we said also in our remarks, we're on track to win approximately $100 million of new business. In fact, as I sit here, end of April, we're ahead of our schedule in terms of winning new business, even in this. But mind you that a lot of those programs we are winning right now are either 2026 starts or even 2027 starts, right? So, we're always focused on a long-term business development and long-term growth for the company while as Rochelle mentioned, trying to control what we can control in the short term. When it comes to commercial vehicle customers.

    因此,我們積極與每位客戶接觸,但我們也認識到我們的原始設備製造商有他們自己正在努力應對的挑戰,我們支持他們的活動,無論是新產品的推出,還是渠道庫存的減少或準備。對於 2027 年的發布,正如我們在評論中所說,我們有望贏得約 1 億美元的新業務。事實上,當我坐在這裡時,已經是四月底了,就贏得新業務而言,我們已經提前完成了計劃。但請注意,我們現在贏得的許多項目要么是 2026 年啟動,要么是 2027 年啟動,對嗎?因此,我們始終專注於公司的長期業務發展和長期成長,同時正如羅謝爾所提到的,我們試圖控制短期內可以控制的事情。當談到商用車客戶時。

  • We all follow ACT forecasts. ACT forecasts have been. More conservative than what our OEMs have indicated both publicly and what we see in our forecasts from them, right? So we're taking a cautious approach to the CD and market because we know that there are some unanswered questions, particularly around EPA regulations that we just talked about. So with all of that, we're continuing to work with our customers, continuing to look for opportunities to support them. And we're engaged with a couple of power sports customers where they're evaluating how much of their, Asia made components they want to bring back to the US, right? So and we, our teams have been extremely busy in answering inquiries around, reshoring and onshoring opportunities. So it's an exciting time for us because, yes, there seem to be some. A dark clouds on the horizon, but you know our team is highly engaged with our customers. We're trying to control our cost structure and we're, cautiously optimistic about some sort of settlement towards this tariff regime, whether it's structural or not. We'll have some clarity in the coming months and we're still planning on our second half being slightly, positive compared to our first.

    我們都關注 ACT 預測。ACT 預測已經如此。比我們的 OEM 公開表示的以及我們從他們的預測中看到的更保守,對嗎?因此,我們對 CD 和市場採取謹慎的態度,因為我們知道還有一些未解答的問題,特別是我們剛才談到的 EPA 法規。因此,我們將繼續與客戶合作,繼續尋找機會為他們提供支援。我們正在與一些動力運動客戶合作,他們正在評估有多少亞洲製造的零件想要帶回美國,對嗎?因此,我們的團隊一直非常忙於回答有關回流和在岸機會的詢問。所以這對我們來說是一個激動人心的時刻,因為是的,似乎有一些。地平線上烏雲密布,但您知道我們的團隊與客戶高度互動。我們正在努力控制我們的成本結構,並且對於該關稅制度的某種解決方案持謹慎樂觀的態度,無論它是否是結構性的。在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將有一些清晰的認識,我們仍然計劃下半年的表現會比上半年略有積極。

  • Natalie block - Analyst

    Natalie block - Analyst

  • Add that's help, and then just two follow up questions to that, I guess first question, as a follow up, could you help us better understand like your revenue mix in terms of long term or your current programs for short cycle or project-based work? Like has that mix shifted over time and does it influence your visibility into the second half of this year and in 2026?

    加上幫助,然後只問兩個後續問題,我想第一個問題,作為後續問題,您能否幫助我們更好地了解您的長期收入組合或您當前的短期週期或基於專案的工作計劃?這種組合是否隨著時間的推移而改變了?它是否會影響您對今年下半年和 2026 年的預見性?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So generally speaking, depending on the size of the program, it might take us, three months to start up a small program to 18 months to start up a really large program. So, given the mix that of new business we're winning, a significant portion of the new business we're winning right now is perhaps, 26 or 27 startups and the rule of thumb is if we don't have that business and all in our bag by the middle of the year, that's generally, 2026 startup, right? So having said that, the tariff regime has opened up some opportunities for us. We're actively working them as we speak that could, be potential second half startups.

    一般來說,根據項目的規模,我們可能需要三個月來啟動一個小項目,或者需要 18 個月來啟動一個非常大的項目。因此,考慮到我們贏得的新業務組合,我們現在贏得的新業務中很大一部分可能是 26 或 27 家新創企業,經驗法則是,如果我們到年中還沒有把這些業務全部拿下,那一般來說,2026 年就會有一家新創企業,對嗎?話雖如此,關稅制度還是為我們帶來了一些機會。我們正在積極地開展工作,這些公司可能會成為下半年的潛在新創公司。

  • We're encouraging. To buy some of those activities and you know as they materialize more. We’ll be happy to share more about them. And by the way, so some of those opportunities as I said, are in our sports, some of them are in electrical infrastructure, some of them are related to data centers. So, some of these non-legacy and markets as well are, coming to for where we're really excited to support these new customers.

    我們令人鼓舞。購買其中的一些活動,您就會知道它們會變得更加具體。我們很樂意分享更多關於它們的資訊。順便說一句,正如我所說,其中一些機會存在於我們的運動中,有些存在於電力基礎設施中,有些與資料中心有關。因此,我們也非常高興能夠為一些非傳統市場的新客戶提供支援。

  • Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

    Rachele Lahr - Chief Financial Officer

  • And those new opportunities are the place where we're able to put in our strategic value-based pricing model. And so as we look to the long term in '26 and '27, you'll see more of that in place as you look to our margins versus what you're seeing now because probably now only, 5% to 10% of our programs are under that and we'll have far more in '26 and '27.

    這些新機會正是我們能夠實施基於策略價值的定價模式的地方。因此,當我們著眼於 26 年和 27 年的長期發展時,您會看到我們的利潤率會比現在更高,因為現在可能只有 5% 到 10% 的專案低於這個水平,而 26 年和 27 年我們的專案會更多。

  • Natalie block - Analyst

    Natalie block - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. That's really helpful. And then last question for me, just focusing on the agricultural and market, acting down mid-20s, this year that you are forecasting, how should we think about timing for recovery? Are you modelling 2026 as a bounce back here or expecting more of a gradual return?

    好的,明白了。這真的很有幫助。然後對我來說的最後一個問題,只關注農業和市場,您預測今年的下降幅度為 20% 左右,我們應該如何考慮復甦的時機?您認為 2026 年會反彈,還是會呈現逐步回歸?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It still continues to be a dynamic environment current tariff regime doesn't really help as farmers are looking at. A potential recovery in crop prices and exports current high tariffs from countries like China do not really help US farmers. Having said all of that, the latest Purdue University a survey for the first time in a long time indicated a positive uptick in farmer sentiment. That is something that, really for us to watch as we go through 2025. Our initial assumption is that 2026 will be a gradual recovery for A, but given the changes in global trade policy and potentially some increased former sentiment, it is possible that we could see a bounce back, but that's not something that we are planning at this point, but we're closely watching it.

    它仍然是一個動態的環境,現行的關稅制度對農民來說並沒有真正的幫助。農作物價格和出口可能復甦,但中國等國目前的高關稅並不能真正幫助美國農民。儘管如此,普渡大學的最新調查顯示,農民情緒長期以來首次出現正上升趨勢。這是我們在 2025 年真正需要關注的事情。我們最初的假設是,2026 年 A 將會逐步復甦,但考慮到全球貿易政策的變化以及可能出現的一些先前情緒的增加,我們可能會看到反彈,但這不是我們目前的計劃,但我們正在密切關注。

  • Natalie block - Analyst

    Natalie block - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. That's super helpful thank you.

    好的,明白了。這非常有幫助,謝謝。

  • [operator instruction]

    [操作員指令]

  • Our next question comes from Ross Sparenblek and William Blair. The line is open, please go ahead.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Ross Sparenblek 和 William Blair。線路已開通,請繼續。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Hey guys, just a couple more here if you don't mind, taking on the new business opportunities and I really target, can you just update us on the progress here to date and you know what the mix has been between new and existing customers.

    嘿夥計們,如果你們不介意的話,我再問幾個問題,抓住新的商業機會,我真的很想問一下,你能向我們介紹一下迄今為止的進展情況嗎,你知道新客戶和現有客戶的組合情況嗎?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think we're on by the end of April, Ross, we're somewhere between $35million and $40 million of new business booked. That's a little bit ahead and to do the linear math, right, it's a little bit ahead, timeline wise to our $100 million dollar target. Our sales teams are, really active with existing customers. That is our first focus, and we're continuing to see a good set of wins. In the CD market and also our sports, and we've mentioned as well construction and access markets. So, I would say that in all of these markets, we're making good progress. What I call as farming versus hunting. Our team is excellent in farming. We're from the Midwest, right? We know how to do that really well, but at the same time, we have had a significant focus since, last year to look at new opportunities and new customers in new markets. So, we're continuing to engage. With new customers in data center and electrical infrastructure and other end markets that are seeing secular growth, so those are the end markets we're excited about. We're having good conversations with them. I would say the $35million to 40 million I just mentioned to you, a significant portion of that is. Existing customers with a sprinkling of new customers, but our pipeline is, really strong, and I'm fully confident that our teams will hit the $100 million new business target this year. And I do expect, as we go into the second half that we will see some new customers added to our list.

    羅斯,我想到 4 月底,我們的新業務訂單將達到 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元。這有點超前了,從時間軸來看,這比我們 1 億美元的目標要提前一點。我們的銷售團隊非常積極地為現有客戶服務。這是我們首先關注的重點,我們將繼續看到一系列良好的勝利。在 CD 市場和運動領域,我們也提到了建築和接觸市場。所以,我想說,在所有這些市場,我們都取得了良好的進展。我稱之為農耕與狩獵。我們的團隊在農業方面非常出色。我們來自中西部,對嗎?我們知道如何很好地做到這一點,但同時,自去年以來,我們一直非常重視尋找新市場中的新機會和新客戶。因此,我們將繼續參與。隨著資料中心、電力基礎設施和其他終端市場的新客戶出現長期成長,我們對這些終端市場感到興奮。我們正在與他們進行良好的對話。我想說,我剛才提到的 3500 萬到 4000 萬美元,是其中很大一部分。現有客戶中既有少量新客戶,但我們的管道非常強大,我完全有信心我們的團隊今年將實現 1 億美元的新業務目標。我確實預計,隨著我們進入下半年,我們會看到一些新客戶加入我們的名單。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Yes, no, that's great to hear. Maybe just kind of conceptualizing this, growing program funnel, do you think that there could be some momentum here. I mean, is there a chance we could actually, 120, 160, or is this just more of a seasonality to the start of the year?

    是的,不,聽到這個消息真是太好了。也許只是概念化這一點,不斷增長的程序漏斗,您認為這裡可能會有一些動力嗎?我的意思是,我們真的有可能達到 120 或 160 嗎,或者這只是年初的季節性現象?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's hard to tell. Look, as you mentioned earlier, right, if the tariffs are going to be structural Right? That's a huge advantage for Mac. So, we will wait and see, of course, right? Like many of us, we want more US manufacturing. We want a certain level of competitiveness for US companies. So given all of that, I'm optimistic that, with even some small structural changes, we will be able to gain ground and gain more business in the second half.

    這很難說。瞧,正如您之前提到的,如果關稅是結構性的,對嗎?這對 Mac 來說是一個巨大的優勢。所以,我們當然會拭目以待,對吧?像我們許多人一樣,我們希望有更多的美國製造業。我們希望美國公司有一定的競爭力。因此,考慮到所有這些,我樂觀地認為,即使只是進行一些小的結構性變革,我們也能夠在下半年取得進展並獲得更多業務。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Okay, well, yeah, just understanding the potential for kind of a lower for longer scenario here in some of the core markets. I mean, it would be great to gauge your confidence level today around maybe achieving just the lower end of the 2026 revenue targets, the kind of contribution of, new business opportunities versus what would be required for the macro recovery.

    好的,是的,只是了解一些核心市場可能在較長時間內出現低迷的情況。我的意思是,今天最好能評估一下自己的信心水平,看看自己能否實現 2026 年收入目標的下限,看看新業務機會的貢獻類型以及宏觀復甦所需的條件。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a great question. As we talked about in our last earnings call, our view has not changed about 2026. We still see a line of sights to low end up for 2026 range, revenue range at the same time, right, unless the bottom falls off and you know there's a huge recession and a significant change to EPA regulation, those are the two caveats I'll continue to mention. If we don't see those two things, then yeah, we still see a line of sight to the low end of the range in 2026.

    這是一個很好的問題。正如我們在上次收益電話會議上所討論的那樣,我們對 2026 年的看法沒有改變。我們仍然看到 2026 年範圍的低端視線,同時收入範圍,對吧,除非底部掉下來,你知道有嚴重的經濟衰退和 EPA 法規的重大變化,這兩個是我會繼續提到的警告。如果我們沒有看到這兩件事,那麼是的,我們仍然可以看到 2026 年範圍低端的趨勢。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Okay, but even with like the, push out of the regulations, I mean that's maybe $150 million of business, so, 700 is still kind of a win in this environment.

    好的,但即使有這樣的限制,我的意思是這可能是 1.5 億美元的業務,所以在這種環境下,700 仍然是一種勝利。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I would agree with you. At the same time, right? We also, no one has asked us, I'll just volunteer, right? We continue to look for M&A opportunities. We continue to be active and given our balance sheet and given our free cash flow generation. Capabilities and we'll see how the rest of the year, materializes. There's a good possibility that we could enter some end markets that could provide, additional growth for us through M&A as well.

    是的,我同意你的看法。同時,對吧?我們也是,也沒人問我們,我就自願吧?我們繼續尋找併購機會。我們將繼續保持活躍,並根據我們的資產負債表和自由現金流產生情況。能力,我們將看看今年剩餘時間將如何實現。我們很有可能透過併購進入一些可以提供我們額外成長的終端市場。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Yes, that's actually a great segue here, just, thinking about kind of the pipeline for M&A, how are you guys prioritizing in market diversification versus maybe geographic reach or additional manufacturing capabilities? Is there a top tech for you right now?

    是的,這實際上是一個很好的過渡,只是考慮一下併購管道,你們如何優先考慮市場多樣化,而不是地理覆蓋範圍或額外的製造能力?目前有一項適合您的頂尖技術嗎?

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, great question. I think first and foremost for us priority is diversification, particularly given, many of our markets sort of went into the same down cycle this year that really, opened our eyes to the need for further diversification of our markets. So that's probably our number one, not probably that is our number one priority is diversification. Number two priority for us is a creative margin profile and then I would say the third priority is being close to our customers with perhaps a different geographic exposure. In the US, we're not going to the US. We're still a US-based company, a US-based manufacturing company, so perhaps Southern states, all of that, as we mentioned in our M&A strategy slide that's on our website, that is still our focus and we have enough number of targets in our pipeline that match those criteria and we're really excited about, what we can do here in the coming year.

    是的,很好的問題。我認為我們的首要任務是實現多樣化,特別是考慮到今年我們的許多市場都進入了同樣的下行週期,這讓我們真正意識到進一步實現市場多樣化的必要性。所以這可能是我們的首要任務,但可能不是,我們的首要任務是多樣化。對我們來說,第二個優先事項是創造性的利潤率,然後我想說第三個優先事項是透過可能不同的地理覆蓋範圍來貼近我們的客戶。在美國,我們不會去美國。我們仍然是一家總部位於美國的公司,一家總部位於美國的製造公司,所以也許南部各州,所有這些,正如我們在網站上的併購戰略幻燈片中提到的那樣,仍然是我們的重點,我們有足夠數量的目標符合這些標準,我們對來年可以做的事情感到非常興奮。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • That's great to hear. Thanks again guys. Congrats.

    聽到這個消息真是太好了。再次感謝大家。恭喜。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We currently have no further questions, so I'd like to hand back to Jag ready some closing remarks.

    我們目前沒有其他問題,因此我想將演講交還給 Jag,讓他準備一些結束語。

  • Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jagadeesh Reddy - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Once again, thank you for joining our call. We appreciate your continued support of MEC, and we look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Should you have any questions, please contact Noel Ryan or Stephan Neely at Valle, our investors relations council. This concludes our call today. You may now disconnect.

    再次感謝您參加我們的電話會議。我們感謝您對 MEC 的持續支持,並期待下個季度向您通報我們的進展。如果您有任何疑問,請聯絡我們的投資者關係委員會 Valle 的 Noel Ryan 或 Stephan Neely。今天的通話到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。