億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Mondelez International third quarter 2026 earnings question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加億滋國際（Mondelez International）2026 年第三季財報問答環節。（接線員指示）

On today's call are Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO; Luca Zaramella, COO; Amit Banati, CFO; and Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Earlier this afternoon, the company posted a press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on its website.

今天與會者包括董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put；營運長 Luca Zaramella；財務長 Amit Banati；以及投資人關係資深副總裁 Shep Dunlap。今天下午稍早，公司已發布新聞稿與事先準備的發言稿，兩者皆可於公司網站查閱。

During the call, the company will make forward-looking statements about performance. These statements are based on how the company sees things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on forward-looking statements. As the company discusses results today, unless noted as reported, it will be referencing non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in the company's GAAP results.

在本次電話會議中，公司將就營運表現發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於公司目前對情勢的看法。由於風險與不確定性，實際結果可能與上述陳述存在重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多資訊，請參閱公司 10-K、10-Q 與 8-K 申報文件中的警示性聲明與風險因素。公司今日討論業績時，除非特別註明為依 GAAP 報告之數字，否則將引用非 GAAP 財務衡量指標，該等指標會就公司 GAAP 結果中包含的特定項目進行調整。

In addition to the company's year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted, you can find comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within the company's earnings release at the back of the slide presentation.

除公司以固定匯率基礎計算的年對年成長外，除非另有說明，您可在公司財報新聞稿（投影片簡報末端）中找到可比的 GAAP 衡量指標，以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 之間的調節表。

We will now move to our first question. Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

我們現在進入第一個提問。Barclays 的 Andrew Lazar。

Dirk, I was hoping we could start as we often do with some of your current thinking really around the state of the consumer in some of your key regions? And then I've just got a follow-up from Amit.

Dirk，我想我們可以像往常一樣，先請你談談目前對於幾個主要區域消費者狀況的看法？接著我還有一個問題要請教 Amit。

Thank you, Andrew. Yes, I think that makes sense. So if I start with emerging markets, I would say that the consumer overall, the confidence is resilient. There is a difference, like India is very positive. I would say, Latin America, with Mexico and Brazil is solid.

謝謝你，Andrew。是的，我想這樣很合理。如果我先從新興市場談起，我會說整體而言，消費者信心仍具韌性。各地之間有差異，例如印度非常正向。我會說拉丁美洲方面，墨西哥與巴西表現穩健。

And then China is softer, but overall, we remain constructive on China. The -- if you look at it, the -- we have good volume growth, we have strong top line growth. Snacking continues to perform well across all the major emerging markets. particularly pleased that the categories in value are holding up very well, particularly in biscuits and chocolate.

而中國相對偏弱，但整體而言，我們對中國仍維持建設性的看法。如果你看整體表現——我們的銷量成長良好，營收（top line）成長也很強勁。在所有主要新興市場，零食（snacking）品類持續表現良好。我們特別高興的是，價值型（value）品類的表現維持得非常好，尤其是在餅乾與巧克力。

As you know, we continue to increase our distribution year-to-date, I think we've added about 130,000 outlets in India. Brazil, we're now over 1 million stores. And in China, we still have a very long runway. So we keep on doing that. And of course, there is inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East. And that is a concern with consumers, for instance, in India. But overall, we feel good about the consumer in emerging markets at this stage.

如你所知，我們今年迄今持續擴大通路覆蓋，我想我們在印度新增了約 13 萬個銷售據點。在巴西，我們目前已超過 100 萬家門店。而在中國，我們仍有非常長的成長跑道。因此我們會持續推進。當然，中東衝突帶來的通膨也是一個因素，這會讓消費者感到擔憂，例如在印度。但整體而言，就目前階段，我們對新興市場的消費者狀況感覺良好。

Switching to Europe. I would say the consumer there, the confidence is generally stable, maybe a little bit better than in the last quarter. but very cautious and you've seen some of the things that are going on due to the energy prices and the cost of living increases. So clearly, inflation is high on the mind of consumers. The other thing seen all the heavy price increases last year, most players in our markets are behaving very rationally.

再談到歐洲。我會說那裡的消費者信心整體上相對穩定，可能比上一季稍微好一些。但仍非常謹慎，你也看到能源價格與生活成本上升所帶來的一些影響。因此，通膨顯然是消費者高度關注的議題。另外，考量到去年大幅的漲價，我們市場中的多數業者目前的行為都相當理性。

And I think the good news is that we have a positive volume mix growth of 1.6 PP in Europe was very broad-based. And on top, our share dynamics are improving. You have to take into account that on top, we had unseasonably hot weather, which had a 1% negative effect on our growth in Europe. And we are very focused on execution. We are doing very strong A&C reinvestment.

我認為好消息是，我們在歐洲的正向銷量/組合（volume mix）成長為 1.6 個百分點（PP），而且是相當廣泛的成長。此外，我們的市占動能也在改善。你也必須考量到，當季出現反常的高溫天氣，對我們在歐洲的成長造成了 1% 的負面影響。我們非常專注於執行力。我們也在進行非常強勁的 A&C 再投資。

We are also focused on strong activations, and we have some innovations like Biscoff or the Milka Croissant that are landing very well. And we think that the positive volume growth is going to continue for the rest of the year.

我們也聚焦於強而有力的市場推廣活動（activations），並且有一些創新產品，例如 Biscoff 或 Milka 可頌，市場反應非常好。我們認為正向的銷量成長將在今年剩餘時間持續。

And then lastly, in North America, I would say consumer confidence remains soft, also driven by energy and fuel prices. And to be honest, I don't think it's going to improve anytime soon. The K-shaped economy continues where the growth is really coming from the higher income households.

最後是北美，我會說消費者信心仍然偏弱，部分也受到能源與燃油價格影響。坦白說，我不認為短期內會有改善。K 型經濟仍在延續，成長主要來自較高收入的家庭。

We feel good about our results in Q3 and year-to-date, and we expect them to continue with solid growth in North America, and that is driven by promo discipline, us growing more in the under-indexed channels and some of the innovation and activation is doing particularly well.

我們對第三季以及今年迄今的表現感到滿意，並預期北美將持續穩健成長；這主要由促銷紀律、我們在滲透率偏低的通路加速成長，以及部分創新與市場推廣活動表現特別出色所帶動。

So overall, I would say, a pretty solid picture in the quarter.

所以整體而言，我會說本季的整體圖像相當穩健。

Great. That's really helpful. And then Amit, Mondelez today, reiterated its forecast, right, for strong EPS growth in '27. I'd really like it if you can maybe just walk through some of the key puts and takes for next year, particularly around visibility into maintaining positive volume momentum and how we should think about price, particularly in the key European region?

很好。這非常有幫助。接著 Amit，億滋今天重申了對 2027 年強勁 EPS 成長的展望，對吧。我很希望你能說明一下明年的幾個主要利多與利空因素，特別是對於維持正向銷量動能的可見度，以及我們應如何看待價格走勢，尤其是在關鍵的歐洲市場？

Yes. So I'll start. From a '26 standpoint, Andrew, I think we're going to -- we are maintaining our top line outlook as Dirk mentioned, in emerging markets, we are performing well. They remain a strong engine of volume and top line growth for us. We feel good about where we are in developed markets as well.

好的。我先開始。就 2026 年而言，Andrew，我想我們將——如 Dirk 所提到的——維持我們的營收（top line）展望；在新興市場，我們表現良好。新興市場仍是我們銷量與營收成長的強勁引擎。我們也對已開發市場目前的狀況感到滿意。

performing well in North America despite a soft consumer. And you saw this quarter, we grew share as well as top line. So we're executing well in North America and Europe, we continue to progress well. This quarter, you saw us grow volume as we lap prices and made carry forward some selective price investments that we had made earlier in the year.

即使消費者偏弱，我們在北美仍表現良好。而你也看到本季我們在市占與營收兩方面都實現成長。因此我們在北美的執行力很到位；在歐洲，我們也持續取得良好進展。本季你看到，隨著我們進入價格基期（lap prices），以及把年初所做的一些選擇性價格投資延續下去，我們的銷量也出現成長。

From an EPS standpoint, for this year, we're maintaining our outlook. I think we've been consistent that we're going to reinvest any upside back into the business into areas that are working, innovation like Biscoff emerging markets in the quarter, we continued to invest back into A&C as well. So from -- and of course, we're continuing to absorb the costs related to the Middle East war. So we're absorbing that within our outlook.

就 EPS 而言，今年我們維持既有展望。我們一直很一致地表示，任何超出預期的上行空間都會再投資回到業務中、投入到有效的領域；例如本季在新興市場，像 Biscoff 這類創新，我們持續加碼；同時我們也持續回投 A&C。此外，當然，我們也持續吸收與中東戰爭相關的成本。因此，我們是在既有展望範圍內吸收這些影響。

So from a '27 standpoint, I think despite increased volatility in the macro as well as headwinds from an inflation standpoint, I think we remain confident that we are going to drive strong EPS growth in '27. I think that's going to be on the back of volume-led growth into the year. I think we continue to expect strength in the emerging markets, increased stabilization in Europe, continued momentum in the US.

因此，從『27年的角度來看，我認為儘管總體環境波動加大、以及通膨面臨逆風，我們仍然有信心在『27年推動強勁的每股盈餘（EPS）成長。我認為這將主要來自於以銷量帶動的年度成長。我認為我們仍預期新興市場維持強勁、歐洲進一步趨於穩定、以及美國動能持續。

And then, of course, we feel very good about our productivity program and the savings that we expect into next year. So we feel confident despite the inflation that we are seeing in freight and some other commodities, we feel good and confident about our delivery -- about our ability to drive strong EPS growth in '27.

然後，當然，我們對生產力計畫以及我們預期在明年實現的節省感到非常樂觀。因此，儘管我們在運輸費以及部分其他大宗商品上看到通膨，我們仍有信心——對我們的交付——對我們在『27年推動強勁EPS成長的能力感到良好且有信心。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行。

Dirk, I just wanted to follow up maybe starting in North America. You're one of the few packaged food companies that's posting positive organic sales growth in North America, you're doing that through a combination of volume and price, at least year-to-date. And if I go back to the start of the year, you were pretty emphatic in your views that the cutting price in North America wasn't the right strategy, whereas some of your competitors maybe were moving in that direction. I think that's proved true.

Dirk，我想追問一下，或許先從北美開始。你們是少數在北美仍能繳出有機銷售正成長的包裝食品公司之一；至少就年初至今而言，你們是透過銷量與價格的組合來達成。如果我回到年初，你們相當堅定地認為在北美降價並不是正確策略，而你們的一些競爭對手可能正朝那個方向走。我認為事實證明你們是對的。

And now we're just seeing the pendulum swing the other way, where we're hearing more of your peers talk about taking pricing up. So maybe you can just comment on how you see the environment evolving there, particularly from a price standpoint as we get into '27?

而現在我們看到擺盪又往另一邊走，我們聽到更多同業談到要提高定價。所以也許你可以評論一下，你如何看待那邊的環境演變，特別是從價格角度，當我們進入『27年時？

Yes. Thank you, Peter. I'll hand it over to Luca to talk about the North American business.

好的。謝謝你，Peter。我把問題交給Luca來談北美業務。

Yes. So Peter, first of all, I think it was a solid Q3 performance. what underpinned the performance once again is the outcomes of our shares that have been improving and consistently gaining traction throughout the year. Very happy with biscuits overall, particularly Savory is really on a roll but also candy and clearly, in some cases, even in bars, we are gaining share through Zbar, which is really an outstanding brand.

好的。Peter，首先，我認為第三季表現穩健。支撐這次表現的，依然是我們市占表現的成果——全年持續改善並穩定取得進展。整體餅乾品類我們非常滿意，尤其是鹹味（Savory）真的勢頭很強；糖果也表現不錯；而且很明顯地，在某些情況下甚至在能量棒品類，我們也透過Zbar取得市占，這真的是一個非常出色的品牌。

As you said, the promotions tactics have changed for us, and they are yielding good results. I think we are well executing around the depth of those promotions. The frequency and those are clearly delivering a good level of incrementality to our business. So that's one thing that we have fixed and that is paying off. We didn't reduce prices, but we have become I think, more precise as to what we do when.

如你所說，我們的促銷策略已經改變，而且正在產生良好成果。我認為我們在促銷深度的執行上做得很好。促銷頻率也同樣如此，這些都明顯為我們業務帶來不錯的增量。所以這是我們已經修正的一件事，而且正在見到回報。我們沒有降價，但我認為我們在何時做什麼變得更精準。

Importantly, we have increased the A&C GP dollar in the US was up in North America was up, but it was partially offset by A&C spending and definitely happy with the incrementality related to some innovation launches we have made.

重要的是，我們提高了A&C；在美國、在北美的GP美元有所上升，但部分被A&C支出所抵銷；不過我們對於一些創新上市所帶來的增量效果非常滿意。

So I think we are still cautious in terms of what type of pricing we had to take, and we are assessing carefully as we go into 2027, what we have to do. But in a nutshell, I think if you look at the volume/mix momentum, which we believe is going to accelerate (technical difficulty).

因此，我認為在需要採取何種定價方面，我們仍然保持謹慎；在邁入2027年之際，我們也在審慎評估我們必須做什麼。但總結來說，我認為如果你看銷量/組合的動能，我們相信它將會加速（技術問題）。

So Peter, I don't know where you lost me. But I gave quite an articulated answer. So let me repeat what I said. Look, as it boils down to the US and North America in general. Look, we are quite pleased with the performance of the US. As you said, the share performance, I believe, in general, is quite positive, we very pleased with Savory that is really on a roll in terms of share gains, reach, and innovation we launched is really resulting incrementality and delivering volume mix and share gains.

所以Peter，我不確定你從哪裡開始聽不到我。但我剛才其實回答得相當完整。我再重述一次我說的。你看，回到美國以及整體北美。我們對美國的表現相當滿意。正如你所說，市占表現我認為整體相當正面；我們對鹹味（Savory）非常滿意，它在市占提升、觸及率以及我們推出的創新方面真的勢頭很強，確實帶來增量，並推動銷量組合與市占提升。

So we are very pleased with Candy. Sour Patch Kids is an outstanding brand that is delivering quite a bit of growth. As I mentioned a few times, the bigger change we made since, I would say, Q4 last year, it has been around promotions.

我們對糖果也非常滿意。Sour Patch Kids是一個非常出色的品牌，帶來相當多的成長。如我之前多次提到，我們自去年第四季以來做出的最大改變，是在促銷方面。

As it boils down to promotions, we have really fine-tuned our strategies in a way that results in quite a bit of incrementality as opposed to last year, where there was quite a bit of switching between regular prices and promo prices. We saw a significant increase in A&C, and that is clearly helping us.

談到促銷，我們確實把策略微調到能帶來相當多增量的方式；相較之下，去年在常規價與促銷價之間有相當多的切換。我們看到A&C顯著增加，而這顯然正在幫助我們。

And finally, launches that we have made around Oreo Zero, Ritz Minis, Clif High Protein are clearly resulting in positive momentum for the business. As we look at the shape of the P&L, there is clearly some inflationary pressure coming our way. But the reality is we want to protect share and volume mix momentum. So we will be very selective on the pricing actions that we will take, and the majority of them will be most likely through PPA. We have some plans as we walk into 2027.

最後，我們在Oreo Zero、Ritz Minis、Clif High Protein等新品上市，明顯為業務帶來正向動能。當我們看損益表（P&L）的走勢時，確實有一些通膨壓力正朝我們而來。但現實是，我們希望保護市占以及銷量組合的動能。因此，我們在將採取的定價行動上會非常有選擇性，其中大多數很可能會透過PPA。我們在邁入2027年時已有一些計畫。

I think you are going to see quite good numbers in terms of share and volume momentum in Q4, and that momentum is critical to be kept into the P&L for 2027, as North America has quite good leverage coming out of it. And so a combination of volume mix, PPA, selective pricing, and the fact that we will continue pushing hard on productivity and supply chain in North America is delivering good outcome. We believe that we have what it takes to keep on investing in the business and delivering positive income in North America for next year.

我認為你會在第四季看到市占與銷量動能方面相當不錯的數字，而這股動能對於2027年的損益表至關重要，因為北美從中能取得相當好的槓桿效益。因此，銷量組合、PPA、選擇性定價，以及我們將持續在北美大力推動生產力與供應鏈，這些組合正在帶來良好成果。我們相信我們具備持續投資業務並在明年於北美交出正向獲利的能力。

Great. And apologies on the technical. Maybe just as a quick follow-up on Europe. I think it's kind of the opposite question, but just I think the pricing was maybe a bit light of expectations or down a bit more. Maybe you could just comment on kind of how you see that shaping up in Q4 and into next year as we think about exit rate?

很好。也為技術問題致歉。或許再快速追問一下歐洲。我想這有點像相反的問題，但我認為定價可能略低於預期或下滑得更多一些。也許你可以評論一下，你如何看待第四季以及明年在我們思考退出率（exit rate）時，這會如何發展？

Look, I think, again, the -- we are quite pleased with the way Europe is turning the P&L in. Despite the hot summer, clearly, things are moving in the right direction. You saw positive volume mix. You saw the impact of both chocolate and the other categories, it's positive across both chocolate and biscuit. The reality is, as I said consistently since the Q1 earnings, we made some selective price adjustments in Europe.

你看，我認為同樣地——我們對歐洲目前推動損益表（P&L）的方式相當滿意。儘管夏季炎熱，顯然事情正朝正確方向前進。你看到正向的銷量組合。你看到巧克力以及其他品類的影響——在巧克力與餅乾兩大品類上都是正面的。現實是，正如我自第一季財報以來一再提到的，我們在歐洲做了一些選擇性的價格調整。

And as we start lapping higher pricing in the second part of last year, those clearly are impacting through pricing, particularly in the chocolate category.

而當我們在去年下半年開始消化較高的定價時，這些因素確實透過價格反映出影響，尤其是在巧克力品類。

So I would say nothing really to worry about. Those are decisions that we made at the beginning of the year in terms of adjustments of pricing that we decided was the right thing to do. I think you have to say that the volume mix and the share numbers that we are seeing are clearly a reflection of those decisions were sound.

所以我會說其實沒有什麼需要擔心的。這些是我們在年初就做出的決策，關於我們認為應該進行的價格調整。我認為你必須說，我們看到的銷量組合與市占數據，清楚反映出這些決策是正確的。

And importantly, as I mentioned many times, we are looking at GP dollars growth. And so our goal has been consistently to deliver the right pricing level for our consumers, it has been consistently in restoring the profit pool of chocolate across the board.

而且很重要的是，正如我多次提到的，我們關注的是毛利（GP）美元的成長。因此，我們的目標一直是為消費者提供合適的定價水準，並且持續在全面修復巧克力品類的利潤池。

And it is in the end, something that we believe is paying off because I believe those pricing actions are actually allowing us to have a much more sound and sustainable business because in the end, what matters to us. is to keep the penetration of our brand and the loyalty of our consumers into our brands. And as we look at penetration numbers, as we look at share results, clearly, for me, at least, that was the right decision to be made.

最終，我們相信這正在帶來回報，因為我認為這些定價行動實際上讓我們能夠擁有更穩健且可持續的業務；因為到最後，對我們而言重要的是，維持我們品牌的滲透率，以及消費者對我們品牌的忠誠度。而當我們看滲透率數據、看市占結果時，至少對我來說，這顯然是正確的決策。

Rob Dickerson, US Bancorp.

Rob Dickerson，美國合眾銀行（US Bancorp）。

Great. Maybe just a question on the acquisition, right? I know you said you acquired a majority stake in undercover snacks. So maybe you could just kind of walk through rationale distribution potential kind of how it fits in the portfolio and really why you like the brand?

很好。也許想問一下併購的問題，對吧？我知道你說你收購了 Undercover Snacks 的控股權。所以也許你可以談談背後的理由、通路分銷的潛力、它如何融入產品組合，以及你們為什麼喜歡這個品牌？

So it's -- basically, it's a crispy quinoa snack with quite a unique crunchy texture. It's usually chocolate covered or frosted. The brand is called undercover because the founder wanted to give her kids who were diagnosed with celiac disease, healthy ingredients in disguise. So it's a healthy product, but really with a great taste. So it's very simple.

所以它——基本上是一種香脆的藜麥零食，具有相當獨特的酥脆口感。通常會裹上巧克力或糖霜。這個品牌叫 Undercover，是因為創辦人想讓被診斷出乳糜瀉的孩子，在「偽裝」之下吃到健康的食材。所以它是健康的產品，但口味真的很好。就這麼簡單。

It has better-for-you ingredients, it's gluten-free, it's allergy friendly. And if you've flown United Airlines, you probably have had the snacks. There's on the place is '21 and they're in the main cabin also as a complimentary snacks since 2023, or they're in Whole Foods, Target, Walmart, and so on.

它使用更健康取向（better-for-you）的原料、無麩質、對過敏族群更友善。如果你搭過聯合航空（United Airlines），你很可能吃過他們的零食。他們在機上有販售，並且自 2023 年起在主艙也作為免費零食提供；此外也進入 Whole Foods、Target、Walmart 等通路。

So overall, I would say the reason why we like it is highly incremental to our portfolio. I think it's going to capture growing demand spaces, particularly the better-for-you moments, the permissible indulgence. And we think that's a complementary consumer base. We believe that over time, our portfolio needs to evolve towards healthier snacks, and this is one step in that direction, basically.

總體而言，我會說我們喜歡它的原因是：它對我們的產品組合具有高度增量效益。我認為它將能抓住正在成長的需求場景，特別是更健康取向的食用時刻、以及「可負擔的放縱」（permissible indulgence）。我們認為這是一個互補的消費者族群。我們相信，隨著時間推移，我們的產品組合需要朝向更健康的零食演進，而這基本上就是朝那個方向邁出的一步。

I think that as consumers' age, younger consumers, they will be looking for great tasting, better-for-you snacks that support a more active lifestyle. So the opportunity is quite big. It's -- at the moment, it's a small business, growing very fast, though, still a very big distribution opportunity, which, of course, that's one of the areas where we can help, but we will also provide them with help in procurement. We will sharpen the positioning through our consumers' insights and our marketing expertise, and we will help the team at undercover to accelerate their growth.

我認為隨著消費者年齡變化，年輕消費者會尋找美味、但更健康取向、且能支持更活躍生活方式的零食。所以機會相當大。目前它仍是一個規模不大的業務，但成長非常快，而且仍有很大的通路拓展機會；當然，這也是我們可以提供協助的領域之一。我們也會在採購方面提供支援。我們將透過消費者洞察與行銷專業來強化其定位，並協助 Undercover 的團隊加速成長。

Diana Levy, who is the CEO, will remain the CEO, and we will integrate the business as a stand-alone unit within our North American ventures where we have other brands just like -- perfect Snacks, Tate's, or Hu vegan chocolate. And so we think that the deal will close by early '27, of course, subject to closing conditions, regulatory approval, but overall, we're quite excited. And I think it's really building for the future here. It won't make a big difference in '27. But I think we're moving our portfolio in the right direction with this acquisitions.

執行長 Diana Levy 將繼續擔任執行長，我們會把該業務作為獨立單位整合進北美 Ventures 部門；在那裡我們也有其他類似的品牌——例如 Perfect Snacks、Tate's 或 Hu 純素巧克力。因此我們認為交易將在 27 年初完成，當然仍需滿足交割條件與監管核准；但整體而言，我們相當興奮。我認為這是在為未來布局。它在 27 年不會帶來很大的差異。但我認為透過這次收購，我們正把產品組合往正確方向推進。

All right. Great. Interesting. And then maybe if I just as question around cocoa. I mean, clearly, right, we're in the period, West African crop and we've seen the price of cocoa , at least in spot or near-term futures increase, feel like investors were talking about that a fair amount.

好的。很好。很有意思。另外也許我再問一下可可的問題。我的意思是，很明顯，我們正處於西非作物季，而我們看到可可價格——至少在現貨或近月期貨——上升，感覺投資人對此討論不少。

But at the same time, we did hear from another company this morning kind of speaking for a number of reasons to kind of how that cost should come down. at least, I guess, over time, I don't know if it's near term, but you usually provide a lot of detailed perspective that I appreciate. So maybe any perspective you can give on kind of view on cocoa right now would be helpful.

但同時，我們今天早上也聽到另一家公司提到，基於多種原因，這個成本應該會下降。至少我想是隨著時間推移——我不確定是否是短期——但你通常會提供很多我很欣賞的細緻觀點。所以如果你能分享一下你們目前對可可的看法，會很有幫助。

Yes, sure. I mean I think it's important to understand that the market is fundamentally in a different position than the spike that we saw in '24. I think if you look at the '25, '26 cycle, we expect to be ending this year with a surplus of almost 0.5 million tonnes, so 500,000 tonnes, which is a record level of surplus.

好的，當然。我認為重要的是要理解，市場的基本面已經處於與我們在 24 年看到的那次飆升完全不同的位置。如果你看 25、26 年的週期，我們預期今年結束時將有接近 50 萬公噸（0.5 百萬公噸）的盈餘，也就是 500,000 公噸，這是創紀錄的盈餘水準。

So I think if you look at the level of inventories that are there in the market right now, they're very good. I think from a '26, '27 standpoint, right now, if you look at the estimates, it's projected to be a deficit of, call it, around 190,000 tonnes, I think, driven by poor initial setting of the main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana as well as expectations of a strong El Nino.

所以我認為，如果你看目前市場上的庫存水位，是非常充足的。從 26、27 年的角度來看，目前若看各項估計，預測將出現約 19 萬公噸的赤字；我認為主要是因為象牙海岸與迦納主作物初期坐果不佳，以及對強烈聖嬰現象的預期所驅動。

So even if that deficit were to eventuate, there is plenty of supply from the surplus this year to absorb that deficit. So I think we feel pretty good about the fundamentals of the market. It's very different from what it was in '24. You look at the coverage levels of the industry; they're at around nine months. again, different position than where it was in '24.

所以即便那個赤字真的發生，今年的盈餘也有足夠的供給可以吸收該赤字。因此我們對市場基本面感覺相當不錯。這與 24 年時的情況非常不同。你看整個產業的覆蓋水準，大約在九個月左右。同樣地，這也不同於 24 年時的位置。

And if you look at the cocoa prices itself, they remain largely range bound as the concerns of the El Nino have been priced in. So net-net, that's our view. And I think the fundamentals are in a much stronger position than in the previous crisis.

而如果你看可可價格本身，隨著對聖嬰的擔憂已被反映在價格中，它們大致仍維持在區間內波動。所以總結來說，這就是我們的看法。我認為基本面處於比上一輪危機強得多的位置。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

Chris Carey，富國證券。

Yes. I'd like to ask about Latin America, please. The volumes here have flattened out and turned slightly positive past couple of quarters for the first time in a little over two years, which is certainly nice to see. Can you give us a bit of context on why have volumes been under pressure in Latin America? What is the evolution that has brought us to this point? And how should we think about the durability of positive volume growth in the region and the concept of pricing versus affordability here as we go into next year?

是的。我想請教一下拉丁美洲。這裡的銷量在過去幾個季度趨於持平，並且在略多於兩年來首次轉為小幅正成長，這當然很高興看到。你能否提供一些背景，說明為什麼拉丁美洲的銷量一直承受壓力？是什麼樣的演變讓我們走到現在這個點？以及，展望明年，我們應該如何看待該地區正向銷量成長的持續性，以及定價與可負擔性之間的概念？

Yes. So look, the number one drug in terms of volume for Latin America, it is Argentina, which we manage for cash and where we have been pricing very diligently over the quarters. And so when you strip that out and you look at the volume/mix performance of Latin America, it has actually been okay, I would say. Remember that in Brazil, we had quite a material and sizable chocolate business, which, again, we price diligently. And part of the pricing actions that we took were through RGM, and so we downsized some of the portfolio.

是的。所以你看，拉丁美洲以銷量計的第一大市場是阿根廷；我們以現金管理的方式經營那裡，並且在過去幾個季度非常審慎地進行定價。因此，當你把這一塊剔除後，再看拉丁美洲的銷量/組合表現，其實我會說一直都還可以。記得在巴西，我們有一個相當重要且規模不小的巧克力業務，同樣我們也很審慎地定價。而我們採取的部分定價行動是透過RGM來執行，因此我們也縮減了部分產品組合。

Reality is chocolate in Brazil is turning the corner in terms of volume mix. And importantly, we have been gaining share consistently in the last few quarters. So I think there, the situation is absolutely under control. We get penetration.

實際情況是，巴西的巧克力在銷量組合方面正在轉折向好。而且很重要的是，我們在過去幾個季度持續地提升市占。所以我認為那裡的情況完全在掌控之中。我們的滲透率在提升。

We have been gaining share and in general, we have been delivering good volume -- good revenue growth for the business. When you step back and you look at the business all across, excluding Argentina, you actually see that in Latin America, the volume mix for the non-chocolate business has been at about 4% to 5% in the last quarter. So I think it is quite a remarkable number.

我們一直在提升市占，整體而言也為該業務帶來了良好的銷量——良好的營收成長。當你退一步看整體業務（不含阿根廷），你其實會看到拉丁美洲非巧克力業務在上一季的銷量組合約為4%到5%。所以我認為這是相當亮眼的數字。

We are extremely pleased with the performance of gum and candy. Particularly Trident is delivering amazing numbers across the board. We have record high share, record high penetration. We are investing materially in the business, gaining distribution and delivering profit out of it.

我們對口香糖與糖果的表現非常滿意。尤其是Trident在各方面都交出驚人的數字。我們的市占創新高、滲透率也創新高。我們在該業務上投入相當多資源，提升鋪貨/通路覆蓋，並從中帶來獲利。

And then, clearly, all the regions, Mexico, Brazil, and WACAM, are delivering, in general, positive volume mix. The exception is really, as I said, the chocolate business in Brazil. As we start lapping the pricing actions and the PPA that we took last year, you're going to see accelerated volume mix coming out of Brazil, too. So a long articulated answer, but I would say Argentina is the number one driver. And then clearly, some of the pricing and decisions that we took about chocolate in Brazil have been resulting in lower volume mix than maybe you had in mind.

此外，顯然各個地區——墨西哥、巴西以及WACAM——整體而言都呈現正向的銷量組合。例外主要如我所說，是巴西的巧克力業務。隨著我們開始與去年採取的定價行動以及PPA形成可比基期，你也會看到巴西的銷量組合加速改善。所以這是一個比較長的回答，但我會說阿根廷是第一大驅動因素。然後很明顯，我們在巴西巧克力上的一些定價與決策，導致銷量組合低於你可能原先的預期。

That's very helpful. Just on Q4, it could imply a wide range for profit outcomes if you take the full year guidance, I'm sure your own internal expectations are not so wide. Can you give us a sense of maybe where you might be landing on the range or just a way to frame how to think about Q4, so as to get a sense of exit rate on that could be top line margins, earnings trajectory, but just conscious it's a wide range of the Q4. So any additional color you could provide, I think, would be helpful.

這非常有幫助。再就第四季而言，如果以全年指引來看，可能意味著獲利結果的區間很寬；我相信你們內部的預期不會那麼寬。你能否讓我們了解一下你們可能落在區間的哪個位置，或提供一個思考第四季的框架，以便我們掌握退出率（exit rate），可能是營收端、毛利率、獲利走勢等；只是我也注意到第四季的區間確實很大。所以若能提供任何額外的說明，我想都會很有幫助。

I think, like I said, we'll be -- we are maintaining our EPS outlook for the year. I think in the quarter, without getting into specific quarterly guidance, I think you can expect for us to continue to -- you can expect to see us continue to grow volume mix into the quarter. I think the upside that we've seen in quarter three, we'd reinvest back into the business. I think you'll see strong gross profit and OI dollar growth in the quarter.

我想，如我所說，我們將——我們維持今年的EPS展望不變。我想在本季，不進入具體的單季指引細節，你可以預期我們會持續——你可以預期我們在本季會持續推動銷量組合成長。我想第三季看到的上行空間，我們會再投資回到業務中。我想你會在本季看到強勁的毛利與營業利益（OI）金額成長。

Max Gumport, BNP.

Max Gumport，法國巴黎銀行（BNP）。

Thanks very much for the question. Very strong gross profit delivery in the quarter, which helped to fund some reinvestment in advertising and brand support. I was hoping you could give us a bit more color on what drove the gross profit delivery, given it came in much better than the street was modeling and it helped to drive the EPS?

非常感謝讓我提問。本季毛利表現非常強勁，這也有助於支應在廣告與品牌支持上的一些再投資。我想請你多補充一些毛利表現的驅動因素，因為結果明顯優於市場（street）的模型預期，並且也有助於推升EPS？

Yes. I think strong volume growth. So obviously, operating leverage coming through. I think very pleased with the productivity program that our supply chain colleagues are delivering through the supply chain, in procurement, in conversion. So that clearly helped in the quarter. And of course, as we discussed, timing of cocoa. So we saw that the benefit of a lower cocoa cost come through in the quarter as well. So those are the main drivers from a gross profit standpoint. And I think, like I mentioned, we should continue to see that into quarter four as well.

是的。我認為是強勁的銷量成長。所以很明顯，營運槓桿開始顯現。我也對我們供應鏈同仁透過供應鏈、採購以及製程轉換（conversion）所交付的生產力計畫感到非常滿意。因此這在本季確實有所幫助。當然，如我們討論過的，可可成本的時點因素。所以我們也看到較低的可可成本效益在本季反映出來。因此，從毛利角度來看，這些是主要驅動因素。而且我想，如我提到的，我們在第四季也應該會持續看到這些因素的延續。

Great. And then on the emerging markets, can you just give us a sense for where we are in the distribution runway. I mean, you talked about adding, I think it was 130,000 outlets year-to-date in India. in Brazil, you're now at more than 1 million stores, but can you just help frame how much more upside there is in some of these emerging markets from expanding your distribution?

很好。接著談新興市場，你能否讓我們了解一下我們在通路擴張跑道（distribution runway）上目前的位置？我的意思是，你提到在印度今年迄今新增了，我記得是13萬個銷售據點（outlets）。在巴西，你們現在已經超過100萬家門店；但你能否協助我們框架化地理解，在這些新興市場透過擴大通路覆蓋，還有多少上行空間？

I mean, look, the universe is much bigger than our current distribution. And I think what is also important for you to know is that the universe of point of sales, particularly in places like India, Southeast Asia and in other places in Latin America, the universe is growing consistently. So it is most likely a point in time type of number that we can give you. but reality is the universe is growing. The other big opportunity that we have is around the number of listed items that we have on the store.

我的意思是，你看，整體可觸及的市場（universe）遠大於我們目前的通路覆蓋。而且我認為你也需要知道的是，銷售據點的整體規模（universe of point of sales），特別是在印度、東南亞以及拉丁美洲其他地區，是在持續成長的。所以我們能給你的很可能只是某一時間點的數字。但實際上，這個整體規模是在成長的。我們另一個很大的機會在於門店上架品項（listed items）的數量。

I think what you have to consider at this point in time is that the runway that we have in places like China, India, Brazil, it is most likely we still have 25% numeric distribution to go.

我想你在此刻需要考量的是，在中國、印度、巴西這些地方，我們的跑道很可能仍有約25%的數值型通路覆蓋（numeric distribution）可提升。

Clearly, the 25% numeric distribution is a number that implies smaller opportunities on as you go and grab it. But it is still a sizable number to be gotten. There is also an opportunity that we have, particularly in places like India, which is to upgrade the current universe in the sense that you know that we have these coolers in India. And the size of the coolers depend upon the evolution of the point of sales. So between the incremental point of sales, the upgrade that we have on the current universe, the fact that we can increase the number of items that are carried by those stores.

當然，這25%的數值型通路覆蓋意味著，隨著你逐步去取得它，單一機會會變得更小。但仍然是一個可觀的可取得空間。另外我們也有一個機會，特別是在印度這樣的地方，就是對現有的整體據點進行升級；你知道我們在印度有這些冷藏櫃（coolers）。而冷藏櫃的尺寸取決於銷售據點的演進。因此，在新增銷售據點、對現有據點的升級，以及我們能提高這些門店所陳列/販售的品項數量之間。

I think the opportunity is quite sizable. I think it is not by coincidence that you see us delivering numbers that are north of 20% growth in India or for that matter in China. numbers that have, quite frankly, defeated the odds of the market, particularly if you compare us to other companies, the reason why those numbers are being delivered is because we pursue incremental distribution opportunities quite rigorously.

我認為這個機會相當可觀。我認為你看到我們在印度、或就此而言在中國交出超過20%成長的數字，並非偶然。坦白說，這些數字戰勝了市場的不利因素，尤其是當你把我們和其他公司相比時；之所以能交出這些數字，是因為我們非常嚴謹地追求增量的通路拓展機會。

Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

Tom Palmer，摩根大通。

I wanted to maybe ask a little bit more on the cost environment. There's obviously the call outs that we've heard today from you and certainly from others on freight and fuel pressures in North America. Maybe a little framing on what you're seeing overseas today? And then as we start to roll into 2027, I think one of the key drivers of earnings was kind of this more favorable cost environment, especially in write ingredients like cocoa. To what extent that kind of still holds. I don't mean the earnings growth; I mean kind of the cost environment when we balance it against some of these other costs that seem to be escalating?

我想就成本環境再多問一點。很明顯，今天我們聽到你們、也確實聽到其他人提到北美的運輸與燃料成本壓力。能否請你們稍微說明一下目前在海外看到的情況？另外，隨著我們開始進入2027年，我認為獲利的關鍵驅動因素之一，是較有利的成本環境，特別是在可可等原料方面。這在多大程度上仍然成立？我不是指獲利成長；我是指當我們把它與其他似乎正在上升的成本相權衡時，整體成本環境的狀況。

Yes. So I'll start by saying that overall, from a '27 standpoint, we remain confident on delivering strong EPS growth in '27. I think like you mentioned, we are seeing increased increases in commodities like dairy, oil, packaging. So we are seeing inflation in that, obviously, we have productivity programs, strong productivity programs that are delivering this year, and we continue to accelerate that into next year as well. But if you look at the overall mix I think we have plenty of levers to drive the earnings growth into '27.

是的。我先說，整體而言，從2027年的角度來看，我們仍然有信心在2027年實現強勁的EPS成長。如你所提到的，我們確實看到乳製品、油脂、包材等大宗商品成本上升。因此我們看到通膨；當然，我們有生產力計畫，而且是很強的生產力計畫，今年正在帶來成效，我們也會在明年持續加速。但如果你看整體組合，我認為我們有很多槓桿可以推動到2027年的獲利成長。

Okay. Understood. And then on the M&A front, obviously, the smaller acquisition here today in terms of Undercover Snacks that has a lot of growth opportunity. What's your appetite as you kind of shift into -- maybe a more favorable environment for growth, at least what you guys are showing, maybe not everyone to take on something a little bit bigger when it comes to M&A?

好的，了解。另外在併購方面，顯然今天這筆Undercover Snacks的收購規模較小，但成長機會很大。當你們轉向——也許是一個更有利於成長的環境（至少從你們展現的狀況來看，可能不是每家公司都如此）——你們在併購上對於做一筆更大案子的意願如何？

But in general, as we stated several times, our strategy is bolt-ons, and I mean there's bolt-on and there's bolt-on. This one of today is on the smaller side. There are bolt-ons, which could be in the $0.5 billion, sometimes even close to $1 billion in sales. But that would be sort of the order of magnitude, I would say that we have in mind.

但總體而言，正如我們多次說過的，我們的策略是做補強型併購（bolt-ons），而且補強型併購也有不同規模。今天這一筆偏小。也有一些補強型併購，銷售額可能在5億美元左右，有時甚至接近10億美元。但我會說，這大概就是我們心中所想的量級。

We are not necessarily pursuing something bigger, largely because we have a very targeted strategy of trying to find the geographical areas around the world where we have gaps or the segments in our categories where we have gaps and surgically, if you want to call it like that, trying to reinforce our portfolio. That has worked well for us.

我們不一定會去追求更大的案子，主要是因為我們有非常聚焦的策略：找出全球哪些地理區域我們有缺口，或在我們的品類中哪些細分領域我們有缺口，然後以「外科手術式」的方式（如果你要這麼稱呼）來強化我們的產品組合。這對我們一直很有效。

And usually, those are the opportunity that can't be the least baggage, if I can call it, because if you go bigger, you might like a part of the company really well. There might be a part that you don't like so much. And -- so far, we are planning to continue on that course.

而且通常這些機會可以說是「包袱」最少的，因為如果你做得更大，你可能很喜歡公司的一部分。也可能有一部分你沒那麼喜歡。所以——到目前為止，我們計畫繼續沿著這條路走。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

Alexia Howard，Bernstein。

You sound very confident about the strong EPS growth in 2027, but little has been said about the outlook for sales growth. Obviously, this year was at least 2%, so that's below algorithm. What are the big puts and takes? And could we get back onto algorithm next year? Or is that still TBD? And then I have a follow-up.

你們對2027年強勁的EPS成長聽起來非常有信心，但對於銷售成長的展望著墨不多。很明顯，今年至少是2%，低於你們的演算法（algorithm）。主要的利多與利空是什麼？明年我們能回到演算法軌道嗎？還是仍待定（TBD）？另外我還有一個追問。

Yes, I think it's premature to talk about the '27 and we'll obviously talk that when we give guidance for the year. I would say that we are very focused on driving volume. And that's -- you've seen us reinvest back in this quarter and reinvest back, You would expect us to reinvest back in quarter four as well to really drive volume and growth into '27.

是的，我認為現在談2027年還太早；我們會在提供年度指引時再談。我會說，我們非常專注於推動銷量。而且——你已經看到我們在本季把資源再投回去、持續再投回去；你也可以預期我們在第四季同樣會再投回去，以真正推動銷量與成長，邁向2027年。

And just to give you a little bit more color, we'd expect continued strength in the emerging markets. I think you should see increasing stabilization in Europe, continued momentum in North America and Luca talked a little bit about some of the drivers that we are seeing from a North America performance standpoint. So you should expect to see us continue to drive that.

再補充一些細節，我們預期新興市場會持續強勁。我認為你會看到歐洲的情況愈來愈穩定、北美動能延續；Luca也稍微談到一些我們從北美表現角度所看到的驅動因素。所以你應該會看到我們持續推動這些。

And then could I just ask, should we expect the negative price growth driven presumably by chocolate in Europe to continue over the next couple of quarters? When do we start to lap all of that?

另外我想請問，未來幾季是否應該預期歐洲由巧克力帶動、推測為主因的負價格成長會持續？我們何時才會開始「跨過基期」（lap）這些影響？

So I think the straight answer is, yes. Again, I think you need to bear in mind that pricing last year ramped up throughout the quarter. And so I urge you to take a look at the combined cumulative pricing across the two years. And I think you have -- you will have a good sense of what type of pricing to expect for the couple of quarters to come.

所以我認為直接的答案是：會。同樣地，我認為你需要記住，去年的定價是在各季逐步拉升。因此我建議你看看兩年合計的累積定價。我想你就會對未來幾季可能出現的定價型態有更好的掌握。

Thank you, Alexia. And I think with this, that concludes the Q&A for today. Thank you very much for assisting through the call. Good quarter. We feel good about Q4 also.

謝謝你，Alexia。我想到這裡，今天的問答就結束了。非常感謝各位參與本次電話會議。本季表現不錯。我們對第四季也感到樂觀。

And we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

我們下季再與各位交流。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Bye.

謝謝。再見。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位撥冗與會並參與。您現在可以斷線。