微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Microchip Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Financial Results Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Microchip 2020 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Microchip's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Eric Bjornholt.

現在，我想將會議轉交給 Microchip 的首席財務官 Eric Bjornholt 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，大家下午好。

During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company.

在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件或公司未來的財務業績做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially.

我們想提醒您，此類陳述是預測，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We refer you to our press releases of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations.

請參閱我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些文件確定了可能影響 Microchip 的業務和運營結果的重要風險因素。

In attendance with me today are Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Chairman and CEO; and Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and COO.

今天和我一起出席的有 Microchip 董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Sanghi； Microchip 總裁兼首席運營官 Ganesh Moorthy。

I will comment on our second quarter fiscal year 2020 financial performance and Steve and Ganesh will then give their comments on the results, discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance and provide an update on the ongoing integration activities associated with the Microsemi acquisition.

我將評論我們 2020 財年第二季度的財務業績，然後 Steve 和 Ganesh 將對結果發表評論，討論當前的商業環境以及我們的指導意見，並提供與 Microsemi 收購相關的持續整合活動的最新情況。

We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions.

然後我們將可以回答具體的投資者和分析師問題。

We are including information in our press release and this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

我們在新聞稿和本次電話會議中包含了有關各種 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施的信息。

We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com, which we believe you will find useful when comparing our GAAP and non-GAAP results.

我們在我們網站 www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬，我們相信您在比較我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果時會發現有用。

We've also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website.

我們還在我們的網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿指標的摘要。

I want to remind investors that during the June quarter of 2018, we adopted the new GAAP revenue recognition standard, which requires revenue to be recognized at the time products are sold to distributors versus our historical revenue recognition policy where revenue on such transactions was deferred until the product was sold by our distributor to an end customer.

我想提醒投資者，在 2018 年 6 月季度，我們採用了新的 GAAP 收入確認標準，該標準要求在將產品出售給分銷商時確認收入，而我們的歷史收入確認政策則將此類交易的收入遞延至該產品由我們的分銷商出售給最終客戶。

As discussed in previous earnings conference calls, we continue to track and measure our performance internally based on direct revenue plus distribution sell-through activity, and each quarter, we'll provide a metric for this called end market demand in our earnings release.

正如之前的收益電話會議所討論的那樣，我們繼續根據直接收入加上分銷銷售活動在內部跟踪和衡量我們的業績，並且每個季度，我們都會在我們的收益發布中提供這個稱為終端市場需求的指標。

Therefore, along with our GAAP and non-GAAP results based on distribution sell-in, we'll also provide investors with our end market demand based on distribution sell-out, but will not provide a P&L based on end market demand.

因此，除了我們基於分銷銷售的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果，我們還將為投資者提供基於分銷銷售的終端市場需求，但不會提供基於終端市場需求的損益表。

End market demand in the September 2019 quarter was $1.346 billion.

2019 年 9 月季度的終端市場需求為 13.46 億美元。

End market demand was about $8.6 million more than our GAAP revenue in the quarter.

終端市場需求比我們本季度的 GAAP 收入高出約 860 萬美元。

I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses.

我現在將介紹一些經營業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和經營費用。

I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our press release.

我將在非 GAAP 基礎上提及這些結果，這是基於我們的收購活動、基於股份的補償和我們新聞稿中所述的某些其他調整影響之前的費用。

Net sales in the September quarter were $1.338 billion, which was up 1.15% sequentially and modestly below the midpoint of our guidance of $1.349 billion.

9 月季度的淨銷售額為 13.38 億美元，環比增長 1.15%，略低於我們 13.49 億美元指導目標的中點。

We have posted a summary of our GAAP net sales and end market demand by product line and geography on our website for your reference.

我們已在我們的網站上發布了按產品線和地理位置劃分的 GAAP 淨銷售額和終端市場需求摘要，供您參考。

On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were near all-time highs at 62.24%, operating expenses were at 25.56% and operating income was 36.7%.

按非美國通用會計準則計算，毛利率接近歷史高位 62.24%，營業費用為 25.56%，營業收入為 36.7%。

Non-GAAP net income was $365.7 million.

非 GAAP 淨收入為 3.657 億美元。

Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.43, which was in line with the midpoint of our guidance.

非 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 1.43 美元，符合我們指引的中點。

On a GAAP basis, gross margins were 61.9% and included the impact of $5.2 million of share-based compensation.

按 GAAP 計算，毛利率為 61.9%，其中包括 520 萬美元的股權補償的影響。

Total operating expenses were $643.9 million and include acquisition intangible amortization of $248.2 million, special charges of $3.6 million, $10.1 million of acquisition-related and other costs and share-based compensation of $40.1 million.

總運營費用為 6.439 億美元，包括 2.482 億美元的收購無形攤銷、360 萬美元的特殊費用、1010 萬美元的收購相關成本和其他成本以及 4010 萬美元的股份補償。

The GAAP net income was $108.9 million or $0.43 per diluted share.

GAAP 淨收入為 1.089 億美元或每股攤薄收益 0.43 美元。

Our September quarter GAAP tax benefit included $12.7 million of net discrete income tax benefits related to tax reserve releases due to statute of limitations expiring, partially offset by a foreign tax assessment.

我們的 9 月季度 GAAP 稅收優惠包括 1270 萬美元的淨離散所得稅優惠，與因時效到期而釋放的稅收儲備有關，部分被外國稅收評估所抵消。

The non-GAAP cash tax rate was 6.5% in the September quarter and was negatively impacted by a foreign tax assessment that Microchip will pay in fiscal year 2020, but defend its position and seek a refund of these taxes in the future.

9 月季度的非 GAAP 現金稅率為 6.5%，受到 Microchip 將在 2020 財年支付的外國稅收評估的負面影響，但會捍衛其立場並在未來尋求退還這些稅款。

We expect our non-GAAP cash tax rate for fiscal '20 to be between 6% and 7%.

我們預計 20 財年的非 GAAP 現金稅率將在 6% 至 7% 之間。

Exclusive of the transition tax, any potential tax associated with restructuring the Microsemi operations into the Microchip global tax structure and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years.

不包括過渡稅、與將 Microsemi 業務重組為 Microchip 全球稅收結構相關的任何潛在稅收以及與前一財政年度應計稅收相關的任何稅收審計結算。

We have many tax attributes and net operating losses and tax credits as well as U.S. interest deductions that we believe will keep our cash tax payments low.

我們有許多稅收屬性和淨營業虧損和稅收抵免以及美國利息減免，我們相信這將使我們的現金納稅額保持在較低水平。

The future cash tax payments associated with the transition tax is expected to be about $236 million and will be paid over the next 6 years.

未來與過渡稅相關的現金稅款預計約為 2.36 億美元，並將在未來 6 年內支付。

We have posted a schedule of our projected transition tax payments on the Investor Relations page of our website.

我們已在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上發布了預計的過渡稅支付時間表。

Our inventory balance at September 30, 2019, was $734.2 million.

截至 2019 年 9 月 30 日，我們的庫存餘額為 7.342 億美元。

We had 131 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, down 1 day from the prior quarter's level.

截至 9 月季度末，我們有 131 天的庫存，比上一季度的水平減少了 1 天。

Inventory at our distributors in the September quarter were at 30 days compared to 32 days at the end of June.

9 月季度我們經銷商的庫存為 30 天，而 6 月底為 32 天。

We have only had 1 quarter in the past 15 years, which was Q3 of fiscal year 2013, where days of inventory and distribution have been lower than the current levels.

在過去的 15 年中，我們只有 1 個季度，即 2013 財年的第三季度，庫存和分銷天數低於當前水平。

The cash flow from operating activities was $396 million in the September quarter.

9 月季度經營活動產生的現金流為 3.96 億美元。

As of September 30, the consolidated cash and total investment position was $405.1 million.

截至 9 月 30 日，綜合現金和總投資頭寸為 4.051 億美元。

We paid down $315.5 million of total debt in the September quarter, and the net debt on the balance sheet was reduced by $283.5 million.

我們在 9 月季度償還了 3.155 億美元的總債務，資產負債表上的淨債務減少了 2.835 億美元。

Over the last full 5 quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8 billion in debt to do so, we have paid down $1.729 billion of the debt and continue to allocate substantially all of our excess cash beyond dividends to aggressively bring down this debt.

自從我們完成對 Microsemi 的收購併為此承擔了超過 80 億美元的債務以來的過去整整 5 個季度中，我們已經償還了 17.29 億美元的債務，並繼續分配除股息以外的所有多餘現金，以積極減少這筆債務.

We have accomplished this despite the adverse macro and market conditions during most of this period, which is a testimony to the cash generation capabilities of our business.

儘管在此期間的大部分時間宏觀和市場條件不利，但我們仍然實現了這一目標，這證明了我們業務的現金生成能力。

We expect our debt levels to reduce significantly over the next several years.

我們預計未來幾年我們的債務水平將大幅下降。

Our adjusted EBITDA on the September -- in the September quarter was $540.2 million and our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was $2.178 billion.

我們在 9 月調整後的 EBITDA - 在 9 月季度為 5.402 億美元，我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 21.78 億美元。

Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA, excluding our very long-dated convertible debt that matures in 2037 and is more equity-like in nature, was 4.59 at September 30, 2019.

截至 2019 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 4.59，不包括 2037 年到期且性質更像股票的超長期可轉換債務。

Our dividend payment in the September quarter was $87.3 million.

我們在 9 月季度支付的股息為 8730 萬美元。

Capital expenditures were $17.7 million in the September quarter.

9 月季度的資本支出為 1770 萬美元。

We expect between $20 million and $25 million in capital spending in the December quarter and overall capital expenditures for fiscal 2020 to be between $90 million and $100 million, a $25 million reduction from the forecast we provided last quarter.

我們預計 12 月季度的資本支出將在 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元之間，2020 財年的總體資本支出將在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間，比我們上一季度提供的預測減少 2500 萬美元。

We continue to add capital to support the growth of our production capabilities of our new products and technologies and to bring in-house more of the assembly and test operations that are currently outsourced.

我們繼續增加資本以支持我們新產品和技術生產能力的增長，並將更多目前外包的組裝和測試業務引入內部。

We expect these capital investments will bring some gross margin improvement to our business, particularly for the outsourced Atmel and Microsemi manufacturing activities that we are bringing into our own factories.

我們預計這些資本投資將為我們的業務帶來一定的毛利率改善，特別是對於我們正在引入我們自己工廠的外包 Atmel 和 Microsemi 製造活動。

Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $39.5 million.

9 月季度的折舊費用為 3950 萬美元。

I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give us comments on the performance of the business in the September quarter and provide an update on some of our ongoing Microsemi integration activities.

我現在將其轉交給 Ganesh，讓我們對 9 月份季度的業務表現發表評論，並提供我們正在進行的一些 Microsemi 集成活動的最新情況。

Ganesh?

像頭神？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝埃里克，大家下午好。

Before I get started, I would like to remind you that the product line comparisons I will be sharing with you today are based on end market demand, which is how Microchip measures its performance internally.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我今天要與您分享的產品線比較是基於終端市場需求，這是 Microchip 內部衡量其性能的方式。

Also, as I go through the product line reports, they will reflect continued broad macro weakness in the markets we serve.

此外，在我瀏覽產品線報告時，它們將反映出我們所服務的市場持續廣泛的宏觀疲軟。

This broad weakness was further accentuated in the month of September.

這種廣泛的疲軟在 9 月份進一步加劇。

Let's start by taking a closer look at microcontrollers.

讓我們從仔細研究微控制器開始。

Our microcontroller business was sequentially down 1.3% as compared to the June quarter.

與 6 月季度相比，我們的微控制器業務環比下降 1.3%。

We continued to introduce a steady stream of innovative new microcontrollers, including the industry's first commercially available serial memory solid-state drive controller, which won the best-of-show award in the 2019 Flash Memory Summit, as well as 2 different USB Type-C Power Delivery controllers, which enable fast device charging and simplifies implementation of this functionality.

我們持續推出源源不斷的創新新微控制器，包括業界首款商用串行存儲器固態硬盤控制器，在 2019 年閃存峰會上獲得最佳展示獎，以及 2 種不同的 USB Type- C Power Delivery 控制器，可實現快速設備充電並簡化此功能的實施。

Microcontrollers represented 53.3% of our end market demand in the September quarter.

微控制器佔 9 月份季度終端市場需求的 53.3%。

Now moving to analog.

現在轉向模擬。

Our analog business was sequentially up 0.2% as compared to the June quarter.

與 6 月季度相比，我們的模擬業務環比增長 0.2%。

During the quarter, we continued to introduce a steady stream of innovative analog products, including the introduction of the Trust Platform for CryptoAuthentication, the industry's first pre-provisioned solution providing secure key storage for small and large volumes.

本季度，我們繼續推出源源不斷的創新模擬產品，包括推出 CryptoAuthentication Trust Platform，這是業界首個為小容量和大容量提供安全密鑰存儲的預配置解決方案。

Analog represented 28.7% of our end market demand in the September quarter.

模擬產品占我們 9 月份季度終端市場需求的 28.7%。

Our FPGA business was sequentially down 8.9% as compared to the June quarter.

與 6 月季度相比，我們的 FPGA 業務環比下降 8.9%。

As we have mentioned in prior conference calls, the FPGA business does have some lumpiness because of our significant exposure to space, aviation and defense markets where procurement timing can be a function of programs and their shifting priorities, schedules and budgets.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，FPGA 業務確實存在一些問題，因為我們對太空、航空和國防市場的敞口很大，在這些市場中，採購時間可能是項目及其不斷變化的優先級、時間表和預算的函數。

During the quarter, we announced our Smart Embedded Vision initiative, providing for designing intelligent machine vision systems with our low-power PolarFire FPGAs.

在本季度，我們宣布了我們的智能嵌入式視覺計劃，為使用我們的低功耗 PolarFire FPGA 設計智能機器視覺系統提供支持。

Design wins for the PolarFire family continued to grow strongly, and we remain optimistic about the prospects for this product family.

PolarFire 系列的設計勝利繼續強勁增長，我們對該產品系列的前景保持樂觀。

FPGA represented 6.8% of our end market demand in the September quarter.

FPGA 占我們 9 月份季度終端市場需求的 6.8%。

Our licensing, memory and other product line, which we refer to as LMO, was sequentially up 10.5% in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter.

我們的許可、內存和其他產品線，我們稱之為 LMO，與 6 月季度相比，9 月季度環比增長 10.5%。

Strength in our licensing business as well as our timing systems business outpaced the broader macro weakness we experienced.

我們的許可業務以及我們的計時系統業務的實力超過了我們經歷的更廣泛的宏觀疲軟。

LMO represented 11.2% of our end market demand in the September quarter.

LMO 占我們 9 月份季度終端市場需求的 11.2%。

In September, we completed the acquisition of 2 small, early-stage private companies.

9 月，我們完成了對 2 家早期小型私營公司的收購。

The first acquisition enables low power embedded computing solutions for machine learning inference and Smart Embedded Vision applications for our FPGA product families.

第一次收購為我們的 FPGA 產品系列提供了用於機器學習推理和智能嵌入式視覺應用的低功耗嵌入式計算解決方案。

This acquisition also adds domain knowledge depth in the areas of machine learning algorithms and vector processing.

此次收購還增加了機器學習算法和矢量處理領域的領域知識深度。

The second acquisition provides digital gate driver solutions for wide-bandgap MOSFET and IGBT technologies.

第二項收購為寬帶隙 MOSFET 和 IGBT 技術提供數字柵極驅動器解決方案。

The acquisition complements our silicon carbide discrete and modular power conversion offerings and enables us to provide more comprehensive total system solutions.

此次收購補充了我們的碳化矽分立式和模塊化電源轉換產品，使我們能夠提供更全面的整體系統解決方案。

These 2 acquisitions were very small and more akin to acquiring intellectual property along with domain experts to help us accelerate our business agenda in specific laser-focused areas.

這 2 次收購規模很小，更像是與領域專家一起收購知識產權，以幫助我們加快特定激光聚焦領域的業務議程。

The combined cash outflow was less than $6 million, and hence, not material to the rate at which we're paying down our debt.

合併的現金流出量不到 600 萬美元，因此對我們償還債務的速度影響不大。

Finally, a quick update about the ongoing Microsemi integration.

最後，關於正在進行的 Microsemi 集成的快速更新。

We continue to plow forward with the business systems and operations integrations.

我們繼續努力推進業務系統和運營整合。

On the business systems front, we went live with a few more systems on November 1. And as I have mentioned on prior conference calls, this is a tedious and time-consuming effort and we estimate that we're about 50% of the way to completion and have about another year of work ahead of us.

在業務系統方面，我們在 11 月 1 日啟用了更多系統。正如我在之前的電話會議上提到的，這是一項乏味且耗時的工作，我們估計我們已經完成了大約 50%完成，我們還有大約一年的工作要做。

We are pleased with the synergies we have achieved since we closed the transaction despite the weaker macro environment, and we expect continued synergy gains for many quarters to come.

儘管宏觀環境疲軟，但我們對自完成交易以來取得的協同效應感到滿意，我們預計未來多個季度將繼續取得協同效應。

Let me now pass it to Steve for his comments about our business and our guidance going forward.

現在讓我將其傳遞給史蒂夫，徵求他對我們業務的評論和我們未來的指導。

Steve?

史蒂夫？

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝 Ganesh，大家下午好。

Today, I would like to first reflect on the results of the fiscal second quarter of 2020.

今天，我想首先回顧一下 2020 財年第二季度的業績。

I will then provide guidance for the fiscal third quarter of 2020.

然後我將提供 2020 財年第三季度的指導。

Our September quarter GAAP net sales based on sell-in revenue recognition was $1.338 billion, up 1.15% sequentially versus a guidance of flat to up 4%.

我們基於銷售收入確認的 9 月季度 GAAP 淨銷售額為 13.38 億美元，環比增長 1.15%，而指引持平至增長 4%。

So we missed the GAAP sales guidance slightly at the midpoint.

所以我們在中點略微錯過了 GAAP 銷售指導。

Our end market demand based on sell-through was $8.6 million higher than GAAP sales, which we believe shows that the channel is continuing to manage their working capital conservatively by reducing inventory due to uncertainty.

我們基於銷售率的終端市場需求比 GAAP 銷售額高出 860 萬美元，我們認為這表明該渠道由於不確定性而繼續通過減少庫存來保守地管理其營運資金。

Recall that we called the bottom of this cycle back in February of 2019, contingent on resolution of the U.S.-China trade dispute.

回想一下，我們在 2019 年 2 月稱本週期觸底，這取決於中美貿易爭端的解決。

This trade settlement did not happen and remains unresolved.

該貿易結算並未發生且仍未解決。

Since then, our end market demand has been flat at $1.34 billion, $1.35 billion and $1.346 billion for March, June and September quarters, respectively, due to multitude of headwinds from trade tensions and resulting impact on automotive, industrial and consumer appliance end markets.

自那時以來，由於貿易緊張局勢帶來的諸多不利因素以及對汽車、工業和消費電器終端市場的影響，我們的終端市場需求在 3 月、6 月和 9 月季度分別持平於 13.4 億美元、13.5 億美元和 13.46 億美元。

Our consolidated non-GAAP gross margin of 62.24% was just above the high end of our guidance and was near a record high.

我們的綜合非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 62.24%，略高於我們指導的上限，接近歷史最高水平。

Our consolidated non-GAAP operating margin of 36.7% was also higher than the midpoint of our guidance of 36.2%.

我們的綜合非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 36.7%，也高於我們 36.2% 的指引中點。

The integration of Microsemi continues to proceed very nicely.

Microsemi 的整合繼續順利進行。

Since the closing of the acquisition, we are continuing to see strong synergies and improvements in gross and operating margins for Microsemi products.

自收購完成以來，我們繼續看到美高森美產品的強大協同效應以及毛利率和營業利潤率的提高。

Our consolidated non-GAAP earnings per share was $1.43, right at the midpoint of our guidance.

我們的合併非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.43 美元，恰好處於我們指引的中點。

On non-GAAP basis, this was also our 116th consecutive profitable quarter.

在非 GAAP 基礎上，這也是我們第 116 個連續盈利的季度。

In the September quarter, we paid down $315.5 million of our debt.

在 9 月季度，我們償還了 3.155 億美元的債務。

Our total debt payment since the end of June 2018 has been $1.73 billion.

自 2018 年 6 月底以來，我們的總債務支付額為 17.3 億美元。

The pace of debt payments has been strong despite the weak and uncertain business conditions as we continue to squeeze working capital.

儘管由於我們繼續擠壓營運資金，業務環境疲軟且不確定，但債務支付的步伐一直很強勁。

Now before I provide you guidance for the December quarter, let me comment on geographical and end market sales.

現在，在我為您提供 12 月季度的指導之前，讓我先評論一下地域和終端市場的銷售情況。

While the uncertainty begin with U.S.-China trade friction, the uncertainty has become global.

雖然不確定性始於美中貿易摩擦，但不確定性已經成為全球性的。

The weak business conditions can be seen in all geographies.

所有地區都可以看到疲軟的商業環境。

Our Americas business in September quarter based on end market demand was down 6.1% over the year-ago quarter, Europe was down 12.9% and Asia was down 12.6%.

根據終端市場需求，我們在 9 月季度的美洲業務同比下降 6.1%，歐洲下降 12.9%，亞洲下降 12.6%。

We did experience our business being weaker in September than we had expected in the month of September.

我們確實經歷了 9 月份的業務弱於我們 9 月份的預期。

This weakness was also reflected in the lower starting backlog for the December quarter as well as the unusually low distribution inventory exiting the September quarter.

這一疲軟還反映在 12 月季度較低的起始積壓訂單以及 9 月季度異常低的分銷庫存中。

From an end market standpoint, industrial, automotive and consumer appliances end markets are down significantly; aerospace and defense and communication markets have been flattish; and data center market has been strong.

從終端市場的角度來看，工業、汽車和消費電器終端市場大幅下滑；航空航天、國防和通信市場一直持平；數據中心市場一直很強勁。

The uncertainty in all geographies is continuing.

所有地區的不確定性仍在繼續。

In this environment, direct customers, and especially the distributors, are continuing to manage their working capital by reducing inventory.

在這種環境下，直接客戶，尤其是分銷商，將繼續通過減少庫存來管理其營運資金。

However, there are some signs of inflection point too.

然而，也有一些拐點的跡象。

In the September quarter, distributor inventory was down to 29.6 days.

在 9 月季度，經銷商庫存下降至 29.6 天。

We have had only 1 quarter in the past 15 years, which was the third quarter of fiscal year '13, where our days of inventory at distribution have been lower than the current levels.

在過去的 15 年中，我們只有 1 個季度，即 13 財年的第三季度，我們的分銷庫存天數低於當前水平。

Secondly, bookings for the month of October were the highest bookings achieved since June of 2018.

其次，10 月份的預訂量是自 2018 年 6 月以來的最高預訂量。

While the backlog for December quarter is much lower than the backlog for September quarter at the same point in the quarter, the slope of the backlog fill for the current quarter is much steeper.

雖然 12 月季度的積壓訂單遠低於本季度同一時間點的 9 月季度的積壓訂單，但本季度的積壓訂單填充斜率要陡峭得多。

With steeper backlog fill where the backlog and shipments end up is a guessing game, especially with the holidays coming, our judgment is that the net sales based on sell-in revenue recognition will take another leg down this quarter.

隨著積壓量的增加，積壓量和出貨量最終是一個猜謎遊戲，尤其是隨著假期的臨近，我們的判斷是，基於銷售收入確認的淨銷售額將在本季度進一步下降。

But with several indicators showing inflection point, we may see the forming of a bottom here even though we saw a false bottom back in the March of this year when trade dispute was not resolved.

但是隨著幾個指標顯示拐點，我們可能會在這裡看到底部的形成，儘管我們在今年 3 月貿易爭端未解決時看到了假底部。

We expect GAAP net sales based on sell-in revenue recognition for our products to be between minus 2% to minus 10% sequentially in the December quarter.

我們預計，在 12 月季度，我們的產品基於銷售收入確認的 GAAP 淨銷售額將在負 2% 至負 10% 之間。

Due to the sharp reduction in GAAP sales at the midpoint of the guidance, we are taking steps to reduce our manufacturing capacity, capital expenditures as well as expenses.

由於 GAAP 銷售額在指引的中點急劇下降，我們正在採取措施減少我們的製造能力、資本支出和費用。

We are planning to reduce the clean room footprint in our Colorado 6-inch fab that we acquired with Atmel acquisition.

我們計劃減少通過收購 Atmel 獲得的科羅拉多 6 英寸晶圓廠的潔淨室佔地面積。

At 6-inch wafer size, the fab is no longer competitive with our other high-volume 8-inch fabs.

在 6 英寸晶圓尺寸下，該晶圓廠不再與我們其他大批量 8 英寸晶圓廠競爭。

Therefore, we will be turning the 6-inch fab into a discrete and specialty fab doing silicon carbide, field effect transistors, FETs, the transistors, MEMS and other discrete devices.

因此，我們將把這個 6 英寸晶圓廠變成一個分立和專業晶圓廠，生產碳化矽、場效應晶體管、FET、晶體管、MEMS 和其他分立器件。

We will be transferring high-volume Atmel products from the 6-inch Colorado fab to our 8-inch fabs in Arizona and Oregon.

我們將把大批量的 Atmel 產品從 6 英寸科羅拉多晶圓廠轉移到我們在亞利桑那州和俄勒岡州的 8 英寸晶圓廠。

This transfer will take about 12 months to complete largely because we brought up the highest volume process in 8-inch fabs for dual sourcing earlier.

這種轉移將需要大約 12 個月才能完成，這主要是因為我們早些時候提出了 8 英寸晶圓廠中最高產量的雙源工藝。

In addition, we will be transferring some of the discrete products from Microsemi 4-inch fabs to the 6-inch fab in Colorado.

此外，我們還將把部分分立產品從美高森美的 4 英寸晶圓廠轉移到科羅拉多州的 6 英寸晶圓廠。

These actions will create about $65 million in cost of goods savings per year when completed.

這些行動完成後，每年將節省約 6500 萬美元的商品成本。

The first phase of this transfer will take about 1 year to complete and will achieve about 2/3 of the savings.

這一轉移的第一階段將需要大約 1 年的時間才能完成，並將實現約 2/3 的節約。

The balance of the transfers have a long tail and will take another 2 years after the first phase.

轉移的餘額有一個長尾，在第一階段之後還需要 2 年。

Regarding capital expenditures, we are reducing our CapEx for fiscal year 2020 to be between $90 million and $100 million for the year, a reduction of $25 million from our guidance on CapEx last quarter.

關於資本支出，我們將 2020 財年的資本支出減少到 9000 萬至 1 億美元，比我們上季度的資本支出指導減少了 2500 萬美元。

Regarding the reduction of OpEx, we're doing 3 things, some of those are continuation of what we have been doing.

關於減少運營支出，我們正在做三件事，其中一些是我們一直在做的事情的延續。

First, we are approving new and replacement acquisitions very sparingly.

首先，我們非常謹慎地批准新的和替代的收購。

Second, we will be managing discretionary spending very tightly.

其次，我們將非常嚴格地管理可自由支配的支出。

And third, our bonus program will yield a lower payout with the reduction in net sales.

第三，我們的獎金計劃將隨著淨銷售額的減少而產生較低的支出。

For December quarter, we expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 61% to 61% of sales -- gross margin to be between 61% and 61.4% of sales.

對於 12 月季度，我們預計我們的非 GAAP 毛利率將在銷售額的 61% 至 61% 之間——毛利率將在銷售額的 61% 至 61.4% 之間。

We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 26.2% and 28% of sales.

我們預計非 GAAP 運營費用將佔銷售額的 26.2% 至 28% 之間。

We expect non-GAAP operating profit to be between 33% and 35.2% of sales.

我們預計非 GAAP 營業利潤將佔銷售額的 33% 至 35.2%。

And we expect our non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $1.12 per share to $1.32 per share.

我們預計我們的非 GAAP 每股收益將在每股 1.12 美元至 1.32 美元之間。

Given all the complications of accounting for our acquisitions, including amortization of intangibles, restructuring charges and inventory write-up on acquisitions, Microchip will continue to provide guidance and track its results on non-GAAP basis except for net sales, which will be on a GAAP basis.

考慮到我們收購會計的所有復雜性，包括無形資產攤銷、重組費用和收購庫存增記，Microchip 將繼續提供指導並在非 GAAP 基礎上跟踪其結果，但淨銷售額除外，淨銷售額將按公認會計原則基礎。

We believe that non-GAAP results provide more meaningful comparison to prior quarters, and we request that the analysts continue to report their non-GAAP estimates to first call.

我們認為，非 GAAP 業績與前幾個季度相比提供了更有意義的比較，我們要求分析師繼續報告他們的非 GAAP 估計以進行首次電話會議。

With this, operator, will you please poll for questions?

有了這個，接線員，請你投票提問好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Chris Caso from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

I guess, the first question, Steve, is the expectations for sell-in versus sell-through in the December quarter.

我想，史蒂夫，第一個問題是對 12 月季度銷售與銷售的預期。

You've already said that the distribution channel inventory is at a record low.

您已經說過分銷渠道庫存處於歷史最低水平。

So is this guidance for December suggesting that, that end demand is actually declining in December?

那麼這個 12 月的指引是否表明 12 月的最終需求實際上在下降？

Could you explain the difference there?

你能解釋一下那裡的區別嗎？

The end demand is declining.

終端需求下降。

There has been some destruction of end demand in various end markets.

各個終端市場的終端需求都受到了一些破壞。

Automotive, clearly, where the number of units built in automotive are much lower in U.S., Europe and China, the industrial market end demand has been weaker because of all the impact of tariffs and increased costs.

汽車，顯然，在美國、歐洲和中國，汽車製造的單位數量要少得多，由於關稅和成本增加的所有影響，工業市場終端需求已經疲軟。

And similar thing we're seeing in the home appliances market.

我們在家電市場也看到了類似的情況。

So yes, the end demand is weaker.

所以是的，最終需求較弱。

And sell-in, we're guiding down.

賣出，我們正在引導。

We do not know what the net to distribution inventory will be in terms of increasing or decreasing, whether end market demand will be higher than GAAP sales or lower slightly, but we think they could be roughly in the same range and could go either way.

我們不知道分銷庫存淨額會增加還是減少，終端市場需求是否會高於 GAAP 銷售額或略有下降，但我們認為它們可能大致在同一範圍內，並且可能會出現任何一種情況。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

As a follow-up then, maybe you can reconcile that with your comments of the potential of this inflection point.

那麼作為後續行動，也許你可以將其與你對這個拐點的潛力的評論相協調。

I guess, what I understand you're saying is the opening backlog coming into the quarter was lower, but you're seeing stronger fill as you go through the quarter.

我想，我理解你的意思是進入本季度的開盤積壓較低，但在整個季度中你會看到更強的填充。

How are you reconciling that better order fill with the prospect of end demand perhaps a bit weaker?

您如何協調更好的訂單填充與最終需求可能有點疲軟的前景？

So how we are reconciling it is the starting backlog in the quarter was significantly more weaker than the minus 6% guidance at the midpoint, significantly weaker.

因此，我們如何協調它是本季度的開始積壓明顯弱於中點的負 6% 指導，明顯弱一些。

So some of that -- fair amount of that has closed in the last 5 weeks because the curve of backlog fill is much steeper.

因此，其中一些 - 在過去 5 週內已經關閉了相當數量，因為積壓填充曲線更加陡峭。

And we're expecting that, that kind of curve will continue and will end up really close to the guidance we're providing, but where we end up would still be lower than the last quarter.

我們預計，這種曲線將繼續下去，最終將非常接近我們提供的指導，但我們最終的水平仍將低於上一季度。

It will require significantly more steeper curve to be even with the last quarter.

它需要更陡峭的曲線才能與上個季度持平。

So we are expecting improvement because of steeper curve, but it doesn't get us to a flat compared to last quarter.

因此，由於曲線更陡峭，我們預計會有所改善，但與上一季度相比並沒有讓我們持平。

Yes.

是的。

And it probably is worth repeating what Steve has already said that our October 2019 bookings were the strongest month of bookings we've seen since June 2018.

可能值得重複史蒂夫已經說過的話，我們 2019 年 10 月的預訂是自 2018 年 6 月以來我們看到的最強勁的預訂月份。

There are kind a lot of mixed messages, weaker backlog, but some inflection points and Chile's very hard to read in this environment.

有很多混合信息，較弱的積壓，但一些拐點和智利在這種環境下很難閱讀。

We said back in February there could be a bottom, but it was very much tied to the trade settlement.

我們早在 2 月份就說過可能會觸底，但這與貿易結算密切相關。

We didn't get it.

我們沒有得到它。

So this time, we're just being cautious in giving you all the puts and takes.

所以這一次，我們只是謹慎地為您提供所有的投資機會。

Next we'll go with Gary Mobley from Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來我們將與富國銀行證券公司的 Gary Mobley 一起討論。

You've mentioned that sort of the retooling of your Colorado facility could bring on maybe a 50 basis point positive impact to gross margin long-term, but the near-term, it looks like we're contemplating 100 basis point sequential decrease.

您已經提到，科羅拉多工廠的那種重組可能會對長期毛利率產生 50 個基點的積極影響，但在短期內，我們似乎正在考慮連續下降 100 個基點。

How much of that degradation in the gross margin near-term is due to underutilization?

近期毛利率的下降有多少是由於未充分利用造成的？

And how much is due to mix?

多少是由於混合？

So I can address that and Steve or Ganesh could add on to it.

所以我可以解決這個問題，Steve 或 Ganesh 可以補充。

So this quarter we just completed, we had an underutilization charge of about $8.9 million.

所以這個季度我們剛剛結束，我們有大約 890 萬美元的未充分利用費用。

That charge will be higher in the December quarter, so that is having an impact on gross margins that we're seeing on a sequential basis.

該費用在 12 月季度將更高，因此這對我們連續看到的毛利率產生了影響。

There's always things like product mix that factor into it also.

總有像產品組合這樣的因素也會影響到它。

And then with demand down, it's likely that we'll have some accounting charges related to obsolescence.

然後隨著需求下降，我們可能會產生一些與過時相關的會計費用。

It doesn't mean that the product isn't good anymore, but we'll have some obsolescence charges that will also impact the gross margins that we produced this quarter.

這並不意味著產品不再好，但我們將收取一些過時費用，這也會影響我們本季度的毛利率。

Okay.

好的。

And just -- I know it's very early to call, but could you give us some sense of seasonal trends in the March quarter based on past history and perhaps how you're feeling about the linearity of bookings as we sit here today?

只是 - 我知道現在打電話還為時過早，但是你能否根據過去的歷史給我們一些關於三月份季度的季節性趨勢的感覺，也許你對我們今天坐在這裡的線性預訂有何看法？

Well, seasonality is the hardest one to talk about because of various acquisitions that we have completed.

好吧，由於我們已經完成了各種收購，季節性是最難談論的。

Prior to the Microsemi acquisition, for example, our end market mix was dominated by industrial, automotive and consumer appliances.

例如，在收購 Microsemi 之前，我們的終端市場組合由工業、汽車和消費電器主導。

With the addition of Microsemi now, we have added 3 other significant end markets: Aerospace and defense, data center and communication where we had very little exposure.

隨著現在 Microsemi 的加入，我們又增加了另外 3 個重要的終端市場：航空航天和國防、數據中心和通信，我們在這些市場的曝光度很小。

And the last year or 5 quarters since we have had Microsemi, the environment hasn't been normal.

自從我們擁有 Microsemi 以來的最後一年或 5 個季度，環境一直不正常。

First, a significant inventory correction in the last June and September of last year, and then subsequently, fighting through the U.S.-China trade sanctions and all the other issues.

首先是去年 6 月和 9 月的重大庫存修正，然後是與美中貿易制裁和所有其他問題作鬥爭。

So we haven't really seen a combined company normal environment for a year or longer to be able to figure out what the seasonality with the current mix is.

因此，我們已經有一年或更長時間沒有真正看到合併後的公司正常環境，無法弄清楚當前組合的季節性是什麼。

So I think that would be my answer that we -- at the minus 6% at the midpoint, clearly, that is below seasonal.

所以我認為這就是我的答案——在中點負 6%，顯然低於季節性。

We're not defending that it is seasonal.

我們並不捍衛它是季節性的。

Prior to any of this acquisition, I think seasonality for December quarter used to be about minus 3%, if I remember.

在進行任何此次收購之前，如果我記得的話，我認為 12 月季度的季節性大約為負 3%。

We don't know where it is today.

我們不知道它今天在哪裡。

We'll next go with Vivek Arya from the Bank of America.

接下來我們將與來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya 一起討論。

Steve, I was hoping you could help us understand the chronology here because back in August, you gave some guidance.

史蒂夫，我希望你能幫助我們理解這裡的時間順序，因為早在八月份，你就給出了一些指導。

Then in September, you kind of confirmed the midpoint of that guidance.

然後在 9 月，您確認了該指導的中點。

And at that time, the hope was that September would be a normal month.

那時，希望九月是一個正常的月份。

And since then, the results are about $11-ish million, somewhat below, so not bad, but somewhat below.

從那以後，結果大約是 1100 萬美元，略低於，所以還不錯，但略低於。

And since that time, we have just heard such a wide range of views from peers.

從那時起，我們剛剛從同行那裡聽到瞭如此廣泛的意見。

One of your peer was very weak, but then most others have kind of been in line.

您的一位同行非常虛弱，但其他大多數人都在排隊。

And now you were saying that October bookings are very strong, but backlog is very weak.

現在你說 10 月份的預訂量非常大，但積壓量非常少。

I think investors are just horribly confused as to what's really going on.

我認為投資者對真正發生的事情感到非常困惑。

What is driving such a weak backlog?

是什麼導致瞭如此微弱的積壓？

And what is now driving this upside?

現在是什麼推動了這種上漲？

What is causing all this?

是什麼導致了這一切？

Well, Vivek, in terms of confusion, join the party.

好吧，Vivek，就混亂而言，加入派對。

I mean this has been a very, very confusing environment.

我的意思是這是一個非常非常混亂的環境。

On one hand, there have been fits and starts on the trade front and the 3 largest of our markets, which are industrial, automotive and consumer appliances, are heavily hit with large amount of tariffs, and therefore, there has been a lot of demand destruction.

一方面，貿易戰線時好時壞，我們的三大市場，即工業、汽車和消費電器，受到大量關稅的嚴重打擊，因此需求量很大破壞。

And any time you make any kind of guess with some resolution of the trade dispute, it really hasn't happened.

任何時候你對貿易爭端的某種解決方案做出任何猜測，它真的沒有發生。

And then you have had multitude of other issues with ZTE about a year ago then Huawei, you can ship it, not ship it, then Hikvision and many other customers added.

大約一年前，中興通訊遇到了許多其他問題，然後是華為，你可以發貨，但不能發貨，然后海康威視和許多其他客戶補充說。

So there has been a lot of confusion.

所以出現了很多混亂。

And every company -- I think if you look at the number year-over-year, you will see that our performance year-over-year is pretty reasonable, but quarter-over-quarter, it just depends on when somebody went into inventory correction, how long the inventory correction lasted.

每家公司——我想如果你看一下同比數據，你會發現我們的同比表現相當合理，但季度環比，這取決於有人何時進入庫存correction，庫存修正持續了多長時間。

We measured our September performance to the September performance of last year.

我們將 9 月份的表現與去年 9 月份的表現進行了比較。

However, September last year, we were still reporting numbers based on sell-through revenue recognition as a non-GAAP.

然而，去年 9 月，我們仍在報告基於銷售收入確認的非 GAAP 數據。

If you compare the numbers GAAP to GAAP, September quarter to September quarter, we were actually up because last September quarter, there was a substantial reduction in distribution inventory.

如果你比較 GAAP 和 GAAP，9 月季度和 9 月季度的數字，我們實際上是上升的，因為去年 9 月季度，分銷庫存大幅減少。

I don't know if it's exactly correct.

我不知道它是否完全正確。

Yes.

是的。

No, we were not up, but we had about an $80 million reduction last September in distribution inventory in that quarter.

不，我們沒有上漲，但去年 9 月該季度的分銷庫存減少了約 8000 萬美元。

Yes.

是的。

So if you compare to that, the numbers get very confusing.

所以如果你與之比較，數字會變得非常混亂。

So in parallel with all these other confusions, last year, we also went through change of revenue recognition.

因此，在所有這些其他混亂的同時，去年，我們還經歷了收入確認的變更。

So I would say simply lay out the numbers for various companies and you will find that our year-over-year performance is better than the other large competitor you talked about.

所以我想說簡單地列出各個公司的數字，你會發現我們的同比表現比你談到的其他大型競爭對手要好。

Vivek, in terms of the chronology, the other thing to keep in mind is, if you remember, I think it was in early August, there were additional tariffs that were announced and were going to be taking place at various points in time.

Vivek，就時間順序而言，要記住的另一件事是，如果你還記得的話，我想是在 8 月初，宣布了額外的關稅，並將在不同的時間點實施。

I think that creates more uncertainty in the market.

我認為這會給市場帶來更多的不確定性。

And I think what happened was September ended up being a lot weaker as people were trying to sort out -- customers are trying to sort out what are they going to do.

而且我認為發生的事情是 9 月份最終變得更弱，因為人們試圖理清 - 客戶正在試圖理清他們將要做什麼。

And that was reflected in distribution inventory going down, the overall results being less than what we had expected at the midpoint, and then beginning to reverse as we went into October and then reflected in the guidance you are seeing today.

這反映在分銷庫存下降，整體結果低於我們在中點的預期，然後在我們進入 10 月時開始逆轉，然後反映在您今天看到的指導中。

Got it.

知道了。

And for my follow-up, Steve, how much do you think distributors will be willing to take down inventory?

至於我的後續行動，史蒂夫，你認為分銷商願意減少多少庫存？

Like you mentioned, this is the lowest that you have seen in the last, I think, 15 years or so that you mentioned, so definitely far below historical trends.

就像你提到的，這是你最近看到的最低點，我認為，你提到的 15 年左右，絕對低於歷史趨勢。

What are you hearing from them?

你從他們那裡聽到了什麼？

I understand the uncertainty, but at some point, do you think you'll see the benefits of perhaps, say, a TI retrenching from the distribution channel?

我理解不確定性，但在某些時候，您認為您是否會看到 TI 縮減分銷渠道的好處？

Or is it too early to give a sense for -- or what does a normalized distribution level look for you?

或者現在給出意義還為時過早——或者標準化分佈水平對你有什麼影響？

I think the macro trends and the demand destruction by the tariffs and all this confusion created are much larger impacts than the other secular trends of -- impact of -- in other competitors in distribution and distribution putting more focus on us.

我認為宏觀趨勢和關稅對需求的破壞以及造成的所有這些混亂比其他長期趨勢的影響要大得多 - 其他競爭對手在分銷和分銷方面的影響更加關注我們。

Those things happen over 2, 3 years and the effect of a trade friction and all that is really much more immediate and much more severe.

這些事情會在 2 年、3 年內發生，貿易摩擦的影響以及所有這些都更加直接和嚴重。

So we've been telling you now for a few quarters that the distribution inventory went down.

因此，幾個季度以來，我們一直在告訴您分銷庫存下降了。

The sell-through in several quarters now, I would say at least 5 quarters, have been better than sell-in.

現在幾個季度的銷售情況，我想說至少有 5 個季度，比銷售情況要好。

And one would think with distribution inventory now lowest since 15 years except 1 strange quarter in FY '13, it wouldn't go down further, but we don't -- we can't be sure of it.

人們會認為，除了 13 財年的一個奇怪季度外，分銷庫存現在是 15 年來最低的，它不會進一步下降，但我們不會——我們不能確定。

Distributors don't have confidence.

經銷商沒有信心。

They are seeing the same issues we are seeing.

他們看到的問題與我們看到的相同。

Weakness in industrial market and automotive market and consumer appliance market, aerospace and defense and communications are kind of flattish.

工業市場和汽車市場以及消費電子市場、航空航天和國防以及通信市場的疲軟表現有些平淡。

If distributors can manage their business by even lower inventory, they probably would.

如果分銷商可以通過更低的庫存來管理他們的業務，他們可能會這樣做。

Right.

正確的。

They're going to leverage our generally short lead times to their advantage.

他們將利用我們通常較短的交貨時間來發揮自己的優勢。

Despite reporting GAAP numbers based on sell-in, you're very well aware of our stance.

儘管報告的 GAAP 數據是基於銷售的，但您非常了解我們的立場。

We manage our business to sell-through and we do not go and request any distributor to take any kind of inventory to stock the shelves.

我們管理我們的業務以銷售，我們不會去要求任何經銷商採取任何類型的庫存來庫存貨架。

So we are focused on sell-through.

所以我們專注於銷售。

And sell-through is weak, and therefore, the sell-in is weak.

銷售疲軟，因此銷售疲軟。

We're taking our next question from Harsh Kumar from Piper Jaffray.

我們將接受來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Harsh Kumar 的下一個問題。

I'm trying to square some of your comments.

我正在嘗試調整您的一些評論。

So you're taking some steps in OpEx and CapEx, but October is suggesting, from your commentary, some sort of an inflection point upward.

所以你在運營支出和資本支出方面採取了一些措施，但從你的評論來看，10 月份暗示某種向上的拐點。

So should we just read into it as, okay, maybe we're not going to go down from the current guidance that you gave for December, that's sort of a new base should we look at, and you're just adjusting your business to kind of, I guess, be more profitable and more cash flow and just optimizing a little bit?

因此，我們是否應該將其解讀為，好吧，也許我們不會從您為 12 月提供的當前指南中走低，這是我們應該考慮的一個新基礎，您只是將您的業務調整為有點，我猜，更有利可圖，更多的現金流，只是優化一點點？

Or is there something else I can read into it?

或者還有其他我可以閱讀的內容嗎？

Well, I think what I'm reading into it is that we started the December quarter with much lower backlog on October 1 than it was on July 1 and if that had continued in the last 5 weeks, the guidance would be double-digit negative.

好吧，我想我正在讀的是我們在 12 月季度開始時 10 月 1 日的積壓比 7 月 1 日低得多，如果在過去 5 週內繼續這種情況，指導將是兩位數的負數.

But we have made up significant gap by the fill being much stronger.

但是我們已經通過填充物變得更強來彌補了巨大的差距。

And if that strength of that fill continues, then the results could be reasonably good.

如果這種填充強度持續下去，那麼結果可能會相當不錯。

But there are also holidays coming, short month in November, short month of December, Europe shuts off in the middle of December.

但是也有假期來了，11月短月，12月短月，12月中旬歐洲休市。

So by all those puts and takes, our guess is that the December quarter still ends up about 6% lower than September quarter and that minus 6% is a huge makeup from how low the backlog was on October 1.

因此，根據所有這些推算，我們的猜測是，12 月季度仍比 9 月季度低約 6%，而負 6% 與 10 月 1 日的積壓量相比是一個巨大的彌補。

And then with the strength of the bookings, October was strong bookings, November, so far, looks like good, strong bookings.

然後根據預訂量，10 月的預訂量很大，11 月到目前為止，看起來不錯，預訂量很大。

If the bookings continue, then hopefully, the January 1 backlog for the March quarter could be better than what we experienced as a backlog on October 1. And with continued strength of bookings, hopefully, we have some sort of recovery, but I'm not really giving any guidance for March yet.

如果預訂繼續，那麼希望 1 月 1 日 3 月季度的積壓情況可能會好於我們在 10 月 1 日經歷的積壓情況。隨著預訂的持續強勁，希望我們有某種複蘇，但我還沒有真正給出 3 月份的任何指導。

Understood.

明白了。

And I think earlier you mentioned that the classic Microchip as you call your core business from some acquisitions ago, typically down about 3% in December.

我想你之前提到過，經典的 Microchip 是你之前收購的核心業務，通常在 12 月下跌約 3%。

Do you think some of that and maybe the Chinese New Year stacked kind of closer to Christmas this time has some effect on some small portion of your consumer business?

你認為其中的一些，也許這次中國新年更接近聖誕節對你的一小部分消費者業務有影響嗎？

You think part of that is going on, perhaps impacting September and then coming back up in October?

您認為其中一部分正在發生，可能會影響 9 月然後在 10 月恢復？

I think earlier a gentlemen asked that we gave guidance in early September that we reconfirmed our midpoint of our guidance, so kind of what happened.

我想早些時候，一位先生要求我們在 9 月初給出指導，我們重新確認了我們指導的中點，所以發生了什麼。

Ganesh mentioned and I mentioned also the month of September was quite weak, weaker than what we had expected, causing us to miss the sales by about $10 million, $11 million.

Ganesh 提到，我也提到 9 月份非常疲軟，弱於我們的預期，導致我們錯過了大約 1000 萬美元、1100 萬美元的銷售額。

The month of October was much stronger and November is continuing much stronger.

10 月份強勁得多，11 月份繼續強勁得多。

So could it be because of some sort of light at the end of the tunnel on first phase of settlement with China?

那麼會不會是因為與中國達成和解的第一階段隧道盡頭出現了某種曙光？

Could it be the inventory has gone low enough?

可能是庫存已經足夠低了嗎？

There are all these puts and takes and we really have put them all on the table, the good points, the bad points, and then we give you a judgment and you could make your own judgment or agree or disagree with ours, but that's where it is.

有所有這些決定，我們真的已經把它們都擺在桌面上了，好點，壞點，然後我們給你一個判斷，你可以做出自己的判斷，或者同意或不同意我們的，但這就是地方這是。

Numbers are very hard to call in this uncertain environment.

在這種不確定的環境中很難得出數字。

We will be taking next Shawn Harrison from Longbow Research.

我們將接替 Longbow Research 的下一任 Shawn Harrison。

I guess my first would be is there any way to quantify, I know you've talked about it a lot so far, just how much September disappointed in terms of either the backlog or actual sales?

我想我的第一個問題是有沒有什麼方法可以量化，我知道你到目前為止已經談論了很多，9 月份在積壓訂單或實際銷售方面有多少令人失望？

Would you have been tracking toward the higher end of guidance otherwise?

否則你會一直追踪更高的指導嗎？

No.

不。

I mean we -- when we reconfirmed our guidance, we were essentially tracking towards the midpoint.

我的意思是我們 - 當我們重新確認我們的指導時，我們基本上是在追踪中點。

And September was weak, causing us to miss by $11 million, am I correct?

9 月表現不佳，導致我們損失了 1100 萬美元，我說得對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And that's the amount that we should consider what the shortfall was also in kind of general backlog as well?

這就是我們應該考慮的缺口數量，也是一般積壓的數量嗎？

No, the backlog was much, much weaker.

不，積壓的數量要少得多。

Remember, backlog crosses over into the December quarter and to succeeding quarters as well.

請記住，積壓會跨越到 12 月季度和後續季度。

I mean, earlier, I mentioned that the backlog started -- on October 1, the backlog was down in double-digits compared to July 1. And if we're giving minus 6% guidance now, even if 4% change, would be $52 million, right, on a revenue number.

我的意思是，早些時候，我提到積壓開始了——從 10 月 1 日開始，與 7 月 1 日相比，積壓下降了兩位數。如果我們現在給出負 6% 的指導，即使有 4% 的變化，也會是5200 萬美元，對，收入數字。

And the backlog on October 1 started much worse than minus 10%, significantly worse than minus 10%.

而10月1日開始的積壓比-10%差很多，比-10%差很多。

So we have made up a huge amount of gap with significantly steeper slope.

所以我們用更陡峭的坡度彌補了巨大的差距。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just as a follow-up...

就像後續行動一樣......

Put a ruler on the slope and get to a number and tell you that's the number.

把尺子放在斜坡上，得到一個數字，然後告訴你這就是數字。

Unfortunately, we have seen that when the backlog starts so low, it can be a steeper slope, but then the slope can change and it could end early in the middle of December and not filled during the holidays.

不幸的是，我們已經看到，當積壓開始時如此之低，它可能是一個更陡峭的斜坡，但隨後斜坡可能會改變，它可能會在 12 月中旬提前結束，並且在假期期間不會被填滿。

So you've got to account for all that.

所以你必須考慮到所有這些。

And that's why I've been keep -- I keep stressing that there are lots of puts and takes.

這就是為什麼我一直堅持——我一直強調有很多投入和投入。

And putting them all into consideration, we're giving you a guidance that we believe is where we are headed.

將它們全部考慮在內，我們正在為您提供我們認為是我們前進方向的指導。

That's very helpful, Stephen.

這很有幫助，史蒂芬。

If I may, a follow-up, just the incremental weakness you saw in the backlog, was it more on the analog side of the portfolio or the microcontroller side?

如果可以的話，跟進，只是你在積壓中看到的增量弱點，它更多是在產品組合的模擬方面還是在微控制器方面？

It was largely pretty much across the board.

它基本上是全面的。

Yes.

是的。

There's no product-specific backlog that was weaker than the other.

沒有比其他產品更弱的特定於產品的積壓。

We're next going to William Stein from SunTrust.

我們接下來要請來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

Steve, you've already told us that the weakness was very broad-based by markets and by geo.

史蒂夫，你已經告訴我們，弱點在市場和地域上都非常廣泛。

I wonder if the strength or the very recent strong recovery in bookings trends could be attributed to anything in particular, any geo, any end market, any event?

我想知道預訂趨勢的強勁或最近的強勁復甦是否可以歸因於任何特別的事情，任何地域，任何終端市場，任何事件？

So I would say if you have to pick a geography that is -- that has shown strength, it would be China.

所以我想說，如果你必須選擇一個顯示出實力的地理區域，那就是中國。

And not -- but nothing by end market there?

不是——但那裡的終端市場什麼都沒有？

We've heard about China auto recovering significantly.

我們聽說中國汽車正在顯著復甦。

Are you seeing that as well?

你也看到了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we manage our business by product line, as you know.

我的意思是，如您所知，我們按產品線管理我們的業務。

So we have rough end market commentary where we believe that the only stronger end market has been data centers.

所以我們有粗略的終端市場評論，我們認為唯一更強大的終端市場是數據中心。

Communication and aerospace and defense were flattish.

通信、航空航天和國防表現平平。

And automotive, industrial and consumer appliances were the weakest markets.

汽車、工業和消費電器是最疲軟的市場。

With a 1-month booking in October, we can't really tell you a change in that tone.

如果在 10 月份預訂 1 個月，我們無法真正告訴您這種語氣的變化。

We just don't track it that way.

我們只是不那樣跟踪它。

One more, if I can, with regard to the Microsemi system, their ERP integrations that you're doing.

還有一個，如果可以的話，關於 Microsemi 系統，你正在做的他們的 ERP 集成。

Can you remind us of the timing to complete these?

你能提醒我們完成這些的時間嗎？

And I just forget whether there is a step function cost savings that happens at the end of it all?

而且我只是忘記了在這一切結束時是否會節省階梯函數成本？

Or is it more linear as we go?

還是我們走的時候更線性？

And remind us of the size of that, please?

請提醒我們它的大小，好嗎？

So if you recall, we began this a year ago and have had a number of transitions we make every quarter.

因此，如果您還記得的話，我們在一年前就開始了這項工作，並且每個季度都會進行一些過渡。

We just did the most recent of that on November 1 of this year.

我們剛剛在今年 11 月 1 日完成了最近一次。

In my prepared remarks, I said we have at least another 4 quarters to get to substantially complete.

在我準備好的發言中，我說我們至少還有 4 個季度才能基本完成。

We're about halfway through at this point in time.

在這個時間點，我們大約完成了一半。

And the savings are more over time rather than a step function change.

並且隨著時間的推移節省更多，而不是階躍函數變化。

And as we get through enough of the systems, we take the savings and that becomes the synergies that we add to what we've done.

當我們通過足夠多的系統時，我們會節省下來，這會成為我們為所做工作增加的協同效應。

We're next going with Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

接下來我們將與摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 一起。

I know it's always tricky to reconcile the SIA data with your results.

我知道將 SIA 數據與您的結果相協調總是很棘手。

But if I look at the SIA data for calendar Q3, the overall general MCU market grew about 5% sequentially, but almost all of that growth came from 32-bit while 8-bit declined, 16-bit was relatively flattish sequentially.

但如果我看一下日曆 Q3 的 SIA 數據，整個通用 MCU 市場環比增長約 5%，但幾乎所有增長都來自 32 位，而 8 位下降，16 位環比持平。

You've grown the size of your 32-bit pretty strongly, but I think it's still about 1/3 of your overall MCU business, so mix adjusted because you still have more 8- and 16-bit exposure.

您的 32 位產品的規模增長非常強勁，但我認為它仍佔整體 MCU 業務的 1/3 左右，因此請進行混合調整，因為您仍然有更多的 8 位和 16 位曝光。

Is this the potential reason why your MCU business slightly underperformed the general industry in the September quarter?

這是否是您的 MCU 業務在 9 月季度略遜於一般行業的潛在原因？

We have not analyzed the numbers against the SIA.

我們沒有針對 SIA 分析這些數字。

So I'd rather not guess and make any comments.

所以我寧願不去猜測也不發表任何評論。

I think our -- you mentioned our end market demand base for microcontroller business was down 1.3%?

我認為我們的——你提到我們對微控制器業務的終端市場需求基礎下降了 1.3%？

Yes.

是的。

I think many of the results we have heard from various companies wouldn't lead us to believe that the business in September quarter was up 5%.

我認為我們從不同公司聽到的許多結果不會讓我們相信 9 月季度的業務增長了 5%。

I don't know how SIA comes up with the numbers.

我不知道 SIA 是如何得出這些數字的。

If you add up the numbers from TI and others, I don't know whether I can construct that number.

如果你把TI和其他的數字加起來，我不知道能不能構造出那個數字。

Nor would I -- our 32-bit business is doing much stronger than the 8 and the 16.

我也不會——我們的 32 位業務比 8 位和 16 位業務做得更好。

I think these are businesses that are not as much 8, 16, 32-bit-focused.

我認為這些業務並沒有那麼專注於 8 位、16 位和 32 位。

They are broad market trends in automotive, in industrial, in consumer appliances, and they affect all segments of the 32 -- of the microcontroller market.

它們是汽車、工業、消費電子領域的廣泛市場趨勢，它們影響著 32 個微控制器市場的所有部分。

Our belief is, in history, that SIA, especially during turbulent times like this, they revise the numbers and there's significant changes reported, and it easily causes confusion like it's causing right now.

我們的信念是，在歷史上，新航，尤其是在這樣的動盪時期，他們修改了數字並且報告了重大變化，這很容易造成混亂，就像現在造成的那樣。

If I look at -- add up the results of most companies that make microcontrollers, I don't really think I can get to the SIA numbers.

如果我查看 - 將大多數製造微控制器的公司的結果加起來，我真的認為我無法獲得 SIA 數字。

Yes.

是的。

That's a fair point.

這是一個公平的觀點。

Okay.

好的。

And then my follow-up, we've been through a couple of quarters of cloud data center spending digestion, but it looks like spending is picking up back here in the second half of this year.

然後是我的後續行動，我們已經經歷了幾個季度的雲數據中心支出消化，但看起來今年下半年支出正在回升。

It looks like you guys are seeing that as well.

看來你們也看到了。

I think via the Microsemi acquisition, you guys have a relatively strong position in NVMe enterprise SSD controllers.

我認為通過收購 Microsemi，你們在 NVMe 企業級 SSD 控制器中擁有相對強大的地位。

You've got a strong platform for PCIe switching products.

您擁有適用於 PCIe 交換產品的強大平台。

And then you've got some of your core products, right, like secure MCUs and Ethernet products that go into the cloud as well.

然後你就有了一些核心產品，對吧，比如進入雲端的安全 MCU 和以太網產品。

Roughly, how big is cloud data center as an end market for the team?

大致來說，雲數據中心作為團隊的終端市場有多大？

I assume it's probably a bit easier to track given that these products are purpose-designed for data center applications?

鑑於這些產品是專門為數據中心應用程序設計的，我認為跟踪起來可能更容易一些？

So the product lines that address data center are more than just the Microsemi product line that came to data center.

因此，針對數據中心的產品線不僅僅是針對數據中心的 Microsemi 產品線。

Clearly, that is a big position that we have, some of what you mentioned relative to the strength in storage, the strength in the SSDs and all that is good.

顯然，這是我們擁有的一個重要位置，您提到的一些與存儲實力、SSD 實力以及所有好的方面相關的內容。

But I don't know if I have a good way to break out exactly what our data center -- it's in the mid-teens is what my guess would be based on where we had seen the combined company, but that's from several quarters ago.

但我不知道我是否有一個很好的方法來準確地說明我們的數據中心是什麼——我的猜測是基於我們看到合併後的公司的地方，但那是幾個季度前的事了.

We also sell products into data center from the classic Microchip business prior to the Microsemi.

我們還從 Microsemi 之前的經典 Microchip 業務向數據中心銷售產品。

And some of those products go into power supplies, they go into other I/O control and various different areas.

其中一些產品進入電源，進入其他 I/O 控制和各種不同領域。

So we had some data center exposure before, but obviously the big one came with Microsemi.

所以我們之前有過一些數據中心曝光，但顯然最大的是 Microsemi。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們將從高盛的馬克德萊尼那裡回答下一個問題。

I'll keep it to one.

我會把它留給一個。

The October bookings strength that the company spoke to, are those primarily bookings that are for shipments in the December quarter?

公司談到的 10 月份預訂量，主要是針對 12 月季度發貨的預訂嗎？

Or are some of those bookings for shipment in the March quarter and maybe giving you a good start on your backlog for the March quarter?

或者，其中一些預訂是在 3 月季度發貨，並可能為您在 3 月季度的積壓訂單上提供一個良好的開端？

Those bookings are aged every month from hereon and into the future, 6, 8 months out.

這些預訂從現在開始到未來 6 個月、8 個月後每個月都會過時。

So some are for December quarter, some are for March quarter, some of it even still beyond the March quarter.

所以有些是針對 12 月的季度，有些是針對 3 月的季度，其中一些甚至超出了 3 月的季度。

We'll next take our next question from John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

接下來，我們將從瑞士信貸銀行的 John Pitzer 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

The entire December quarter, you've been pretty clear that your assumptions for turns are higher.

整個 12 月季度，您都非常清楚您對轉彎的假設更高。

I'm just kind of curious, given the strength you've seen quarter-to-date, from here on out, what's the expectations for turns relative to trend?

我只是有點好奇，考慮到您本季度迄今看到的實力，從現在開始，相對於趨勢的轉變預期是什麼？

Do you expect you need that steepness to continue to hit the midpoint?

你認為你需要那種陡度來繼續達到中點嗎？

Or are you embedding kind of a more normal turns business in the second half of the quarter to hit the midpoint of guidance?

或者您是否在本季度後半段嵌入了一種更正常的轉彎業務以達到指導的中點？

So I will speak qualitatively rather than quantitatively because we haven't disclosed what the backlog was, where it is now and all that.

所以我會定性地而不是定量地說話，因為我們還沒有透露積壓是什麼，現在在哪裡等等。

If the current slope of backlog fill continues, then the results would be very good.

如果當前積壓填充的斜率繼續下去，那麼結果會非常好。

We're not expecting this slope to continue.

我們預計這種趨勢不會繼續下去。

So we, in our judgment, have moderated that slope, current slope, some just because the backlog started very low and then people place the order, slope is high.

因此，根據我們的判斷，我們已經緩和了這個斜率，當前的斜率，有些只是因為積壓開始很低，然後人們下訂單，斜率很高。

As backlog starts to fill up, the slope will moderate.

隨著積壓開始填滿，斜率將緩和。

And the other is effect of holidays because you don't do a lot of bookings over the Thanksgiving week.

另一個是假期的影響，因為您在感恩節期間不會進行大量預訂。

And then December, Europe is the weakest; usually, U.S. is the second; and then Asia usually continues to work over the holidays.

然後是 12 月，歐洲是最弱的；通常，美國是第二個；然後亞洲通常會在假期繼續工作。

So we have, based on our experience from our history, we have modeled that in, but I will admit that we have moderated that slope because we think the slope is not sustainable.

因此，根據我們的歷史經驗，我們已經對此進行了建模，但我承認我們已經緩和了這個斜率，因為我們認為斜率是不可持續的。

And I think I'll also point out to you that we give a broad range of guidance.

我想我還要向你們指出，我們提供了廣泛的指導。

And we have given a pretty broad range of guidance to account for all those puts and takes.

我們已經給出了相當廣泛的指導來解釋所有這些投入和投入。

We're taking our next question from Chris Danely from Citigroup.

我們正在接受來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely 的下一個問題。

I'll try and behave here and just stick to one question.

我會試著在這裡表現得很好，只回答一個問題。

Steve, as this, I guess, sluggish type of environment continues into the March quarter, theoretically, what would you be looking to do as far as OpEx goes in your own inventory?

史蒂夫，我想這種低迷的環境會持續到三月季度，從理論上講，就 OpEx 進入您自己的庫存而言，您希望做什麼？

Well, if the sluggish environment were to continue, the OpEx would be basically in the range.

好吧，如果低迷的環境繼續下去，OpEx 基本上會在這個範圍內。

We will keep on controlling any headcount additions, sparingly approve any replacement acquisitions.

我們將繼續控制任何人員增加，謹慎批准任何替代收購。

Bonus will continue to be lower than the target type of bonuses.

獎金將繼續低於目標類型的獎金。

CapEx will continue to tighten because if there's no growth, we will need capacity.

資本支出將繼續收緊，因為如果沒有增長，我們將需要產能。

And a lot of the capital we are investing is just incremental here and there.

我們投資的很多資本只是在這里和那裡增加。

There's no big capital needed for growth in this environment.

在這種環境下，增長不需要大筆資金。

So those are the things we would do if the environment continues to be sluggish.

因此，如果環境繼續低迷，我們將採取這些措施。

If the environment were to accelerate, I would think we still have sufficient capacity and sufficient inventory to ship the upside.

如果環境加速，我認為我們仍然有足夠的產能和足夠的庫存來實現上行。

So you wouldn't see a growth in CapEx immediately and you wouldn't see growth in expenses either.

所以你不會立即看到資本支出的增長，你也不會看到支出的增長。

So if the upside in revenue were to come through, I think that will be a pretty good leverage for the earnings to go to the bottom.

因此，如果收入上行得以實現，我認為這將是使收益觸底的一個很好的槓桿。

We'll next go with Vijay Rakesh from the Mizuho Group.

接下來，我們將請來瑞穗集團的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just Steve and Eric, just briefly, you talked about just the inventory has come down quite a bit.

只是史蒂夫和埃里克，簡單地說，你談到了庫存已經下降了很多。

I was just wondering if your visibility extended to the end customer also.

我只是想知道您的知名度是否也擴展到最終客戶。

Have you seen the end customers stock up ahead of the tariffs?

你有沒有看到最終客戶在關稅前囤貨？

Or do you think inventories going out to the end customers have come down as well?

還是您認為流向最終客戶的庫存也有所下降？

We really have no meaningful visibility into end customers and what they're doing with their inventory.

我們對最終客戶以及他們對庫存的處理方式確實沒有任何有意義的可見性。

They don't report to us.

他們不向我們報告。

We don't see the change from week-to-week as we do in the case of distribution.

我們看不到每週的變化，就像我們在分發的情況下所做的那樣。

So they are, we presume, doing what they think is the right thing for their business, but we have no color one way or the other.

所以我們認為，他們正在做他們認為對他們的業務正確的事情，但我們沒有任何顏色。

Got it.

知道了。

And I know you mentioned October, you saw a nice snapback or pickup in backlog, mostly from China.

我知道你提到了 10 月份，你看到積壓訂單出現了很好的反彈或回升，主要來自中國。

Given that Steve mentioned auto and industrial were the weakest, would you expect those to snap back faster than others if we see some rebound or -- that's it.

鑑於史蒂夫提到汽車和工業是最弱的，如果我們看到一些反彈或者 - 就是這樣，你會期望它們比其他行業更快地反彈嗎？

It's really hard to call future by end markets.

很難通過終端市場來預測未來。

It's easier to talk about the past.

談論過去更容易。

Yes, if there's some sort of trade settlement, there was to be clear rules where overnight through another tweak, the duties will not go higher or something, then you will see some stability and return to normalcy on the industrial market and appliance market.

是的，如果有某種貿易結算，就會有明確的規則，在一夜之間通過另一項調整，關稅不會提高或其他什麼，然後你會看到工業市場和家電市場出現一些穩定並恢復正常。

Automotive, there is a settlement with GM -- in GM now and so you should see some impact there.

汽車，與通用汽車達成和解——現在在通用汽車，所以你應該會看到一些影響。

So I think those are the things that would show strength, yes.

所以我認為這些是可以顯示力量的東西，是的。

We'll next go with Christopher Rolland from the Susquehanna International Group.

接下來我們將請來自 Susquehanna International Group 的 Christopher Rolland。

Steve, in your experience, maybe you can talk about how this cycle has been different from prior ones, kind of what most surprised you this time around?

史蒂夫，根據你的經驗，也許你可以談談這個週期與之前的周期有何不同，這次最讓你驚訝的是什麼？

And then how do you feel about this being more of a semiconductor-specific-driven cycle versus an economic cycle?

那麼你如何看待這更像是一個特定於半導體的驅動週期而不是一個經濟周期？

And do you have any thoughts on an economic cycle, given how long this economic cycle has lasted?

考慮到這個經濟周期持續了多長時間，您對經濟周期有什麼想法嗎？

Well, that's a tough ball that you have served.

好吧，那是你發的一個艱難的球。

That's -- I'm not an economist and that's not my field.

那是——我不是經濟學家，那不是我的領域。

So I'll give you some feel for really how I'm thinking.

所以我會給你一些真實的想法。

Many of the cycles our industry have seen are the cycles created by our own industry through long lead times, excessive inventory build and then the bubble bursting and going the other way and companies shipping below demand for a while, and then the cycle correcting.

我們行業所見的許多周期都是我們自己的行業通過較長的交貨時間、過多的庫存積累、然後泡沫破滅和反方向發展以及公司在一段時間內出貨量低於需求而造成的周期，然後周期修正。

So those are semiconductor industry and its customer-caused cycles by successively under-shipping demand and over-shipping demand.

因此，這些是半導體行業及其客戶導致的周期，依次是出貨需求不足和出貨需求過剩。

This cycle hasn't been caused by the industry.

這個週期不是由行業引起的。

This cycle has been caused by the much larger economic forces.

這個週期是由更大的經濟力量造成的。

And if I were to name a single one, it will be the U.S.-China trade.

如果我要說出一個，那就是美中貿易。

It's really been caused by that.

確實是這個原因造成的。

I tried to explain it before and let me take another shot at it.

我之前試著解釋過，讓我再試一次。

The world economy runs on manufacturers building the product and pulling in the inventory with a forecast that the customers will come and buy that product.

世界經濟依靠製造商製造產品和拉動庫存，並預測客戶會來購買該產品。

And I'd give an example of a grocery store or an electronics store.

我會舉一個雜貨店或電子產品商店的例子。

You can go into these stores, there's lots of inventory and you can come out with bags full of your grocery.

你可以走進這些商店，那裡有很多存貨，你可以帶著裝滿雜貨的袋子出來。

You do not order your grocery a week ahead of time and then go pick up the delivery.

您不會提前一周訂購雜貨然後去取貨。

In fact, if you were to go into the grocery store and what you wanted isn't there, you'll go to another store and buy it.

事實上，如果你要去雜貨店，但那裡沒有你想要的東西，你會去另一家商店買。

So world economy largely runs on inventory.

因此，世界經濟在很大程度上依賴於庫存。

Now enter the tariff uncertainty.

現在輸入關稅不確定性。

Imagine a customer building the product in China, and let's say, there were no tariffs on it and bringing it to U.S. -- I'm sorry, there were tariffs on it, let's say, there is 25% tariff on it.

想像一下，一個客戶在中國製造產品，假設它沒有關稅並將其帶到美國——對不起，它有關稅，比方說，它有 25% 的關稅。

So they bring the product to U.S. with 25% tariff on it and having then the uncertainty to be able to pass on that tariff to their end customer, they don't know whether they can or they can't.

因此，他們以 25% 的關稅將產品帶到美國，然後不確定是否能夠將該關稅轉嫁給他們的最終客戶，他們不知道他們是否可以。

And the second risk is they bring the inventory to U.S. and then there is settlement announced.

第二個風險是他們將庫存帶到美國，然後宣布結算。

Once a settlement is announced, no end customer will pay that 25% tariff because the manufacturer brought it here with tariff at their own risk.

一旦宣布達成和解，最終客戶將不會支付 25% 的關稅，因為製造商將其帶到這裡的關稅風險由他們自己承擔。

So what it does is it makes everybody stop in their tracks.

所以它的作用是讓每個人都停下來。

They cut down the inventory on the loading dock, to the manufacturing lines, to the raw materials, to the finished goods, to the transportation hubs, everywhere.

他們在裝卸碼頭、生產線、原材料、成品、交通樞紐等各個地方削減庫存。

People draw down the inventory because they do not know what the landed cost is and what they can pass to their customers.

人們減少庫存是因為他們不知道到岸成本是多少，也不知道他們可以將什麼轉嫁給客戶。

That is the impact we have seen in many, many of the markets.

這就是我們在許多市場中看到的影響。

And when there is a clarity on the tariff front, then you will see rebuilding of that supply chain inventory, which will have a very positive effect on us.

當關稅方面變得清晰時，你會看到供應鏈庫存的重建，這將對我們產生非常積極的影響。

Hopefully, that helps.

希望這會有所幫助。

We're going next with Gil Alexandre from the Darphil Associates.

接下來我們將與來自 Darphil Associates 的 Gil Alexandre 一起討論。

I assume, as you look at your long-term model, that you still have gross margins at 63% and operating margins at 40.5% once we get over these problems?

我假設，當您查看您的長期模型時，一旦我們解決了這些問題，您的毛利率仍然為 63%，營業利潤率為 40.5%？

Yes, Gil.

是的，吉爾。

We have not changed our longer-term model.

我們沒有改變我們的長期模型。

In fact, the changes we announced today on the restructuring of our Colorado fab and bringing some of those 6-inch products to our 2 high-volume 8-inch fabs and really creating $65 million in savings in the process, what we have done is we have lowered the revenue at which we achieve our target model.

事實上，我們今天宣布的關於科羅拉多晶圓廠重組的變化，以及將其中一些 6 英寸產品引入我們的 2 個高產量 8 英寸晶圓廠，並在這個過程中真正節省了 6500 萬美元，我們所做的是我們降低了實現目標模型的收入。

So prior to that, it required a certain amount of revenue to fill up our factories and remove the underutilization to achieve our 63% target margin.

因此，在此之前，它需要一定數量的收入來填補我們的工廠並消除未充分利用以實現我們 63% 的目標利潤率。

By making those changes, we have not dollarized for you how much, but we have lowered the revenue we need to achieve to achieve the target margin because we've taken so much cost out of the system.

通過進行這些更改，我們沒有為您美元化多少，但我們已經降低了實現目標利潤率所需的收入，因為我們已經從系統中扣除了太多成本。

May I just ask one question on China?

我可以問一個關於中國的問題嗎？

And you can skip it.

你可以跳過它。

Go ahead.

前進。

You talked of this 25% tariff.

你談到了這個 25% 的關稅。

Have you seen any talk that they may -- that people will want to reduce that tariff?

你有沒有看到任何關於他們可能——人們會想要降低關稅的談話？

Or is that all open-ended?

或者這一切都是開放式的？

You have some information you were sharing?

你有一些你分享的信息嗎？

Are you talking about the trade discussion between the U.S. and China?

您是在談論中美之間的貿易討論嗎？

Because I think that is the entire point.

因為我認為這就是重點。

The 25% tariff is creating uncertainty on both sides of the ocean.

25% 的關稅給大洋兩岸帶來了不確定性。

It's creating uncertainty in other regions of the world as well.

它也在世界其他地區製造不確定性。

In Phase 1 settlement that has been touted by the administration, the 25% tariff doesn't go away.

在政府吹捧的第一階段和解中，25% 的關稅並沒有消失。

They only agreed to not increase the tariff from 25% to 30%.

他們只同意不將關稅從 25% 提高到 30%。

But there is some talk, whether it's in Phase 2 or gets done in Phase 1, where certain -- on $100 million, $1 billion worth of goods, that tariff will go down, but those are just talks so far.

但有一些說法，無論是在第二階段還是在第一階段完成，在某些情況下 - 對於價值 1 億美元，價值 10 億美元的商品，關稅將會下降，但到目前為止這些只是談判。

Yes.

是的。

I think we see different news reports that come out.

我想我們看到了不同的新聞報導。

We don't have any direct insight into the discussions and decisions.

我們對討論和決定沒有任何直接的了解。

I think there is a in good faith effort to try to deescalate from where we are, and it may take more than one phase, but the rate at which it comes down and the time when it impacts the products that we are designed into and our customers are impacted by is unclear to us.

我認為有一種真誠的努力試圖從我們所處的位置降級，這可能需要多個階段，但它下降的速度以及它影響我們設計的產品和我們的產品的時間客戶受到的影響我們尚不清楚。

Even if there is a settlement which creates a finality that tariffs are not zeroed, tariffs -- some number, 10%, 15%, but their current stand, and there's not going to be another tweet which is going to increase those tariffs, once the customers, distributors, contract manufacturers, everybody has that finality and they can run the business in a normal way and the inventories will get replenished.

即使有一項解決方案最終確定關稅不會歸零，關稅 - 一些數字，10％，15％，但他們目前的立場，並且不會有另一條推文會增加這些關稅，一次客戶、分銷商、合同製造商，每個人都有最終決定權，他們可以正常經營業務，庫存也會得到補充。

It is the uncertainty which causes it because they don't know what the landed cost will be.

造成這種情況的是不確定性，因為他們不知道到岸成本是多少。

Anything else, operator?

還有什麼事嗎，接線員？

We'll take our next question from Craig Ellis from B. Riley FBR.

我們將接受來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Craig Ellis 的下一個問題。

This is Carlin Lynch on for Craig.

這是克雷格的卡林林奇。

Just wanted to ask a question on the cross-selling opportunities with Microsemi.

只是想問一個關於與 Microsemi 的交叉銷售機會的問題。

I think last quarter, you had said that the muted environment had kind of slowed down some of that progress.

我想上個季度，你曾說過，安靜的環境有點減緩了一些進展。

If we were to get to a normalized environment next year, could we see those cross-selling opportunities kind of springboard?

如果我們明年要進入常態化環境，我們能否看到這些交叉銷售機會的跳板？

Is the design activity going on and we're just seeing muted demand everywhere?

設計活動是否在進行，我們只是看到到處都是低迷的需求？

Or any kind of qualitative color you could give on the cross-selling opportunities would be great.

或者您可以為交叉銷售機會提供任何類型的定性顏色都很棒。

So as you note, the cross-selling opportunities are all at the design-in stage.

因此，正如您所注意到的，交叉銷售機會都處於設計階段。

So these are platforms that get designed and then go to production over 18, 24 months of time.

因此，這些平台經過設計，然後在 18、24 個月的時間內投入生產。

The design-in activity is going extremely well.

設計活動進行得非常順利。

And across the board, the combined sales teams, combined business unit teams of Microchip, are all highly focused on enabling that on new designs.

總體而言，Microchip 的聯合銷售團隊、聯合業務部門團隊都高度專注於在新設計中實現這一目標。

The environment today is really for products that were designed back in time, and that muted environment doesn't change, but the seeds that are being planted, new designs and the increased total system solutions we're able to address clearly will pay off in time at the current -- as the new designs go to production in 12, 18, 24 months of time.

今天的環境確實適用於那些過去設計的產品，而且這種安靜的環境不會改變，但正在播下的種子、新設計和我們能夠解決的增加的總體系統解決方案顯然會在當前時間——新設計將在 12、18、24 個月後投入生產。

So just if I could clarify there, so we would expect some of that cross-selling opportunity to start to manifest next year even if the demand environment kind of just skips along the bottom here?

所以，如果我能在那裡澄清一下，那麼即使需求環境只是跳過這裡的底部，我們也希望明年開始出現一些交叉銷售機會嗎？

Yes, and you got to take it over time.

是的，你必須隨著時間的推移接受它。

This is not a single application, single customer that drives it one way or another.

這不是一個單一的應用程序，單一的客戶以某種方式驅動它。

There's hundreds of applications, customers over which this would happen.

有數百個應用程序和客戶會發生這種情況。

But clearly, that is a multiplier that comes from cross-selling, from selling a more complete solution to the customer.

但很明顯，這是來自交叉銷售的乘數，來自向客戶銷售更完整的解決方案。

And as that ramps in, I don't know if it is exactly first half of next year, second half, but in time, as the environment improves, as new designs go to production, we will see the benefits that come from it.

隨著時間的推移，我不知道是不是明年上半年，下半年，但隨著環境的改善，隨著新設計投入生產，我們將及時看到它帶來的好處。

We're going next to Craig Hettenbach from Morgan Stanley.

我們旁邊是摩根士丹利的 Craig Hettenbach。

Question for Steve.

史蒂夫的問題。

One of the secondary impacts of the trade war is just the acceleration of China to try to move to more of a localization effort.

貿易戰的次要影響之一就是中國加速嘗試更多地進行本地化。

Can you talk about just maybe parts of your portfolio where you see maybe some overlap of -- to that versus other parts that you think a lot more immune to what China might be trying to do from a development perspective?

你能談談你的投資組合中你認為可能有些重疊的部分——與你認為從發展角度來看更不受中國可能嘗試做的事情的其他部分嗎？

So we hear a lot of talk and we don't see a lot of action on that front.

因此，我們聽到了很多討論，但在這方面沒有看到太多行動。

There may be action on certain product lines.

某些產品線可能會採取行動。

I think they're really maybe trying to build processors and graphic processors and others.

我認為他們可能真的在嘗試構建處理器和圖形處理器等。

We do not really see that kind of impact today on our data center products, on our FPGA products, on our discrete and other products or microcontroller and analog.

我們今天並沒有真正看到這種對我們的數據中心產品、我們的 FPGA 產品、我們的分立產品和其他產品或微控制器和模擬產品的影響。

We hear a lot of talk about it.

我們聽到很多關於它的討論。

And longer term, there could be an issue where they want to either design their own product or not prefer to design with Americans.

從長遠來看，可能會出現一個問題，即他們要么想設計自己的產品，要么不喜歡與美國人一起設計。

I think, in a short period of time, less than a year of this trade war, you can't really design a massive portfolio that Microchip has to make a meaningful impact on that.

我認為，在這場貿易戰發生不到一年的短時間內，你無法真正設計出 Microchip 必須對其產生有意義影響的龐大產品組合。

So we're really not seeing that on revenue today, but we're seeing it in sentiment.

所以我們今天真的沒有在收入上看到這一點，但我們在情緒上看到了這一點。

And I would add to it.

我會添加它。

The threat from local suppliers in China is nothing new.

來自中國本地供應商的威脅並不是什麼新鮮事。

It's been there for many years.

它已經存在很多年了。

It's a question that do they have the types of products, the quality of the product, the capability to support the designs, the wide range of applications and customers that you need to be able to serve with it.

這是一個問題，他們是否擁有產品類型、產品質量、支持設計的能力、廣泛的應用程序和您需要能夠使用它服務的客戶。

That is a very large task.

這是一項非常艱鉅的任務。

And they may be more in an environment today that says you should consider more of a local supplier, but the task is very, very large for anybody who wants to do it.

他們今天的環境可能更多地表明您應該更多地考慮本地供應商，但對於任何想這樣做的人來說，任務都非常非常艱鉅。

And if they could, they would have been doing it for several years before.

如果可以的話，他們早就這樣做了好幾年了。

We're going to Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們要去美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Actually, on those same lines in terms of competition and substitution, Steve, have you seen any design shifts to your -- perhaps your European or Japanese competitors who have been in the market for a longer period of time?

事實上，在競爭和替代方面，史蒂夫，你是否看到過任何設計上的變化——也許是你的歐洲或日本競爭對手，他們已經進入市場很長時間了？

Does that become a factor going forward?

這會成為前進的因素嗎？

Like I said, first, we have very, very broad customer base.

就像我說的，首先，我們擁有非常非常廣泛的客戶群。

We serve over 120,000-plus customers, so it's very, very hard to track.

我們為 120,000 多名客戶提供服務，因此很難追踪。

We're not seeing any preponderance of evidence to see there is any design shift.

我們沒有看到任何優勢證據表明存在任何設計轉變。

We're hearing in sentiment the so-called non-A sentiment.

我們在情緒中聽到所謂的非 A 情緒。

You may have heard that kind of language where government is saying design with Chinese customers first, design with Taiwanese or Asians second, design with the Europeans third and Americans the last, but 95%, 97% of products we build are all proprietary in nature with no pin compatible part available.

你可能聽過政府說先為中國客戶設計，其次為台灣或亞洲人設計，第三為歐洲人設計，最後為美國人設計，但我們製造的 95%、97% 的產品本質上都是專有的沒有可用的引腳兼容部件。

So in a short period of time, we really haven't seen any of that shift.

所以在短時間內，我們真的沒有看到任何這種轉變。

The shift will first become visible at the design-in phase, if it does, and I don't think we have strong evidence today that that's happening.

這種轉變將首先在設計階段顯現出來，如果確實如此，我認為我們今天沒有強有力的證據表明這種情況正在發生。

We're not losing designs like crazy.

我們不會像瘋了一樣失去設計。

Our funnel size is still very, very large and we're able to leverage a lot of our more commodity-like products with more advanced products with the total system solution if they're on the same board.

我們的漏斗規模仍然非常非常大，如果它們在同一塊板上，我們能夠利用我們的許多更像商品的產品和更先進的產品以及整個系統解決方案。

It's cause for concern.

這令人擔憂。

We're watching and we are making the products better, finding other sales mechanisms to bundle it and all that.

我們正在觀察，我們正在改進產品，尋找其他銷售機制來捆綁它等等。

So negative sentiment in China is definitely there, but it's not really being seen in bookings and revenue dollars today.

因此，中國肯定存在負面情緒，但今天的預訂量和收入並沒有真正體現出來。

It appears that there are no further questions at this time.

看來此時沒有進一步的問題了。

Mr. Sanghi, I'd like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Sanghi 先生，我想將會議轉回給您，請您發表任何補充或結束語。

Well, I want to thank everyone.

好吧，我要感謝大家。

This has been a difficult year with all the uncertainty.

這是充滿不確定性的艱難一年。

Please continue to bear with us.

請繼續耐心等待我們。

And we'll see some of you on the road as we go to various conferences.

當我們去參加各種會議時，我們會在路上看到你們中的一些人。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now go ahead and disconnect.

您現在可以繼續並斷開連接。