麥當勞 (MCD) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to McDonald's Third Quarter 2021 Investor Call. At the request of McDonald's Corporation, this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mike Cieplak, Investor Relations Officer, for McDonald's Corporation.

    您好,歡迎來到麥當勞 2021 年第三季度投資者電話會議。應麥當勞公司的要求,本次會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)我現在想將會議轉交給麥當勞公司的投資者關係官 Mike Cieplak 先生。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Kempczinski; and Chief Financial Officer, Kevin Ozan.

    大家早上好,感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Kempczinski;和首席財務官凱文·奧贊。

  • As a reminder, the forward-looking statements in our earnings release and 8-K filing also apply to our comments on the call today. Both of those documents are available on our website, as are reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on today's call, along with their corresponding GAAP measures. Following prepared remarks this morning, we'll take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being webcast and is also being recorded for replay via our website.

    提醒一下,我們收益發布和 8-K 文件中的前瞻性陳述也適用於我們今天對電話會議的評論。這兩個文件都可以在我們的網站上找到,今天電話會議中提到的任何非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬,以及相應的 GAAP 措施也是如此。在今天早上準備好的發言之後,我們會回答你的問題。 (操作員說明)今天的電話會議正在進行網絡直播,並通過我們的網站進行錄製以供重播。

  • And now I'll turn it over to Chris.

    現在我將把它交給克里斯。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As the largest restaurant business in the world, our size and scale are a competitive advantage that we've built and nurtured for over 6 decades. Our 40,000 restaurants in over 100 countries are predominantly run by local owner operators, connecting the business to the 40,000 communities in which we operate. These local connections embed a level of agility that complements our size and scale, enabling local teams to adapt and adjust to operating conditions that vary by country, community and even restaurant in real time. It's what makes McDonald's special. It's also how we're able to use scale and agility, how we can be both big and nimble to achieve something truly unique.

    謝謝,邁克,大家早上好。作為世界上最大的餐飲企業,我們的規模和規模是我們 6 多年來建立和培育的競爭優勢。我們在 100 多個國家/地區的 40,000 家餐廳主要由當地業主經營,將業務與我們經營的 40,000 個社區聯繫起來。這些本地聯繫嵌入了一定程度的敏捷性,與我們的規模和規模相得益彰,使本地團隊能夠實時適應和調整因國家、社區甚至餐廳而異的運營條件。這就是麥當勞的特別之處。這也是我們能夠利用規模和敏捷性的方式,我們如何能夠既大又靈活地實現真正獨特的事情。

  • And thanks to the resilience across all 3 legs of our stool: franchisees, suppliers and the company, and the scale and agility that we deploy collectively, I'm confident in our ability to meet whatever challenges may confront us. From restrictions driven by new COVID variants, to supply chain pressures and labor shortages across industries, to any other unknown unknowns.

    由於我們所有 3 條腿的彈性:特許經營商、供應商和公司,以及我們集體部署的規模和敏捷性,我對我們應對可能面臨的任何挑戰的能力充滿信心。從新的 COVID 變體驅動的限制,到跨行業的供應鏈壓力和勞動力短缺,再到任何其他未知的未知數。

  • We're approaching the 1-year anniversary of Accelerating the Arches, which took shape in response to changing customer needs early in the pandemic. Rooted in the inherent strengths of the McDonald's System and brand, it's proving to be the right strategy with the right focus at the right time. We're evolving the customer experience in ways, both large and small, to meet changing customer needs and maintain our market leadership. Our 3 growth pillars known as our MCDs, marketing, core menu; and the 3Ds of digital, delivery and drive-thru, guide our business. This includes amplifying contactless channels like delivery and drive-thru and creating digital experiences that are seamless, personalized and easy to use. We've continued to make excellent progress this past quarter, and I want to thank the McDonald's people all over the world who are performing under trying conditions.

    我們即將迎來 Accelerated the Arches 的一周年紀念日,它是為了應對大流行初期不斷變化的客戶需求而形成的。植根於麥當勞系統和品牌的內在優勢,它被證明是在正確的時間和正確的重點的正確戰略。我們正在以各種方式改進客戶體驗,以滿足不斷變化的客戶需求並保持我們的市場領先地位。我們的 3 個增長支柱,即 MCD、營銷、核心菜單;數字、交付和得來速的 3D 指導我們的業務。這包括擴大交付和得來速等非接觸式渠道,並創建無縫、個性化且易於使用的數字體驗。在過去的一個季度中,我們繼續取得了出色的進展,我要感謝全世界在艱苦條件下表現出色的麥當勞員工。

  • Let me turn it over to Kevin to walk through our top line results.

    讓我把它交給凱文來看看我們的頂級結果。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Chris. Our third quarter top line results represent a continuation of our broad-based business momentum around the world, with global comp sales up nearly 13% or 10% on a 2-year basis. Our International Operated Markets have continued to recover, accelerating 2-year comp trends in the third quarter to nearly 9%, as most markets operated with fewer government restrictions. There's still varied performance across the big 5 markets within the IOM segment, ranging from strong double-digit 2-year growth in the U.K. and Canada to low single-digit 2-year growth in Australia, Germany and France, as those countries have been slower to recover from the pandemic.

    謝謝,克里斯。我們第三季度的營收業績代表了我們在全球範圍內廣泛的業務勢頭的延續,全球複合銷售額在兩年內增長了近 13% 或 10%。我們的國際運營市場繼續復甦,第三季度的 2 年復合趨勢加速至近 9%,因為大多數市場在政府限制較少的情況下運營。 IOM 細分市場的 5 大市場仍然存在不同的表現,從英國和加拿大的強勁兩位數 2 年增長到澳大利亞、德國和法國的低個位數 2 年增長,因為這些國家一直在從大流行中恢復的速度較慢。

  • The U.K. continued to lead the segment in the third quarter, driven by growth in delivery and digital channels as well as strong menu and marketing promotions like Monopoly. In Canada, the strong 2-year comp momentum was driven by successful marketing activity, including core extensions like the Grand Mac and Spicy Nuggets and growth in the 3Ds of drive-thru, delivery and digital, even as dine-in restrictions have lifted.

    在交付和數字渠道的增長以及強大的菜單和營銷促銷(如 Monopoly)的推動下,英國在第三季度繼續領先該細分市場。在加拿大,成功的營銷活動推動了強勁的 2 年競爭勢頭,包括 Grand Mac 和 Spicy Nuggets 等核心擴展以及得來速、送貨和數字 3D 的增長,即使就餐限制已經解除。

  • In France and Germany, comp sales exceeded 2019 levels for the first time in the third quarter. Germany's positive performance was supported by expanded deployment of delivery; the national launch of our loyalty program, MyMcDonald's Rewards; and a taste of McDonald's promotion featuring value offerings like McChicken. France benefited from continued strength in delivery and strong menu and marketing promotions with a focus on Family. Market conditions are challenging with the adoption of vaccine pass restrictions for both customers and crew in France and several other countries.

    在法國和德國,comp 銷售額在第三季度首次超過 2019 年的水平。德國的積極表現得到了擴大交付部署的支持;在全國推出我們的忠誠度計劃 MyMcDonald's Rewards;並體驗麥當勞的促銷活動,其中包括 McChicken 等超值產品。法國受益於持續的交付實力以及以家庭為重點的強大菜單和營銷促銷活動。由於法國和其他幾個國家對客戶和船員採取疫苗通行限制,市場條件面臨挑戰。

  • Performance in Australia was impacted by significant stay-at-home restrictions, affecting over half of the restaurants for nearly the entire quarter. While comp sales were relatively flat for the quarter, the market was positive on a 2-year basis and continued to grow its delivery channel, achieving record delivery sales for the quarter. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the IOM segment to maintain a relatively similar 2-year comp trend as Q3.

    澳大利亞的表現受到重大的居家限制的影響,幾乎整個季度影響了一半以上的餐廳。雖然本季度的複合銷售額相對持平,但市場在 2 年的基礎上是積極的,並繼續擴大其交付渠道,實現了該季度創紀錄的交付銷售額。當我們展望第四季度時,我們預計 IOM 細分市場將保持與第三季度相對相似的 2 年復合趨勢。

  • In the U.S., we maintained our momentum with Q3 comp sales up nearly 10% or 14.6% on a 2-year basis. We continued to see positive comps across all dayparts on a 2-year basis with sustained double-digit comps at dinner and breakfast. At the same time, franchisees continue to achieve record-high restaurant cash flow. Our U.S. franchisees have never been better positioned to weather the labor and inflation pressures while still investing in growth. Performance in the U.S. remains driven by strong average-check growth, reflecting larger order sizes and menu price increases.

    在美國,我們保持了勢頭,第三季度的複合銷售額在 2 年的基礎上增長了近 10% 或 14.6%。在 2 年的基礎上,我們繼續在所有時段看到積極的補償,晚餐和早餐持續保持兩位數的補償。與此同時,加盟商繼續實現創紀錄的餐廳現金流。我們的美國特許經營商從未像現在這樣更好地應對勞動力和通貨膨脹壓力,同時仍投資於增長。美國的表現仍然受到強勁的平均支票增長的推動,這反映了更大的訂單規模和菜單價格的上漲。

  • The big bets we've made during the pandemic are paying dividends across the business and enabling us to maintain our QSR leadership. Menu and marketing efforts with products like the Crispy Chicken Sandwich and successful Famous Orders like the Saweetie Meal have elevated our brand and helped drive underlying sales growth across the business. The launch of our loyalty program in the U.S. has exceeded expectations and is driving increased digital adoption. In just a few short months, we already have over 21 million members enrolled, with over 15 million active loyalty members earning rewards, and we expect that number to continue to grow. Chris will share more loyalty headlines in a few minutes.

    我們在大流行期間所做的大賭注正在為整個業務帶來紅利,並使我們能夠保持 QSR 的領先地位。脆皮雞肉三明治等產品的菜單和營銷工作以及 Saweetie Meal 等成功的著名訂單提升了我們的品牌,並幫助推動了整個業務的潛在銷售增長。我們在美國推出的忠誠度計劃超出了預期,並推動了數字化採用率的提高。在短短幾個月內,我們已經有超過 2100 萬會員註冊,超過 1500 萬活躍的忠誠會員獲得獎勵,我們預計這個數字會繼續增長。克里斯將在幾分鐘內分享更多忠誠度頭條新聞。

  • We've reopened nearly 80% of our dining rooms in the U.S. Roughly 3,000 dining rooms remain closed in high-risk COVID areas as we continue to prioritize the health and safety of our customers and crew. In restaurants where we have reopened dining rooms, front-counter and kiosk sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, but we're seeing that even modest increases in these channels helped to relieve operational pressure in the drive-thru. The strong performance in the U.S. has continued into October. We're currently seeing low double-digit comps on a 2-year basis, and we expect that to continue through the rest of the fourth quarter.

    我們已經重新開放了美國近 80% 的餐廳。隨著我們繼續優先考慮客戶和工作人員的健康和安全,在 COVID 高風險地區大約有 3,000 間餐廳仍然關閉。在我們重新開放餐廳的餐廳中,前台和售貨亭的銷售額仍低於大流行前的水平,但我們看到,即使這些渠道的適度增長也有助於緩解得來速餐廳的運營壓力。美國的強勁表現一直持續到 10 月。我們目前看到 2 年的低兩位數補償,我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度的剩餘時間。

  • Turning to the International Developmental Licensed segment. Comp sales were up nearly 17% for the quarter or about 5% on a 2-year basis. Performance was largely driven by positive results in Japan and Latin America, partly offset by negative comps in China. Japan maintained momentum in Q3 with comps up 13%, achieving an impressive 6 consecutive years of quarterly comp sales growth despite restaurants operating with government restrictions. The market's performance is being driven by a continued commitment to serve customers safely and conveniently through our drive-thru and digital channels as well as strong marketing and limited time promotions.

    轉向國際開發許可部分。本季度的 Comp 銷售額增長了近 17%,或在 2 年的基礎上增長了約 5%。業績主要是由日本和拉丁美洲的積極業績推動的,部分被中國的消極業績所抵消。日本在第三季度保持了增長 13% 的勢頭,儘管餐廳在政府限制下運營,但連續 6 年實現了令人印象深刻的季度銷售額增長。通過我們的得來速和數字渠道以及強大的營銷和限時促銷,我們持續致力於安全、便捷地為客戶提供服務,從而推動了市場的表現。

  • China continues to be impacted by both COVID resurgences, which restarted in June and lasted throughout the quarter, and a softening economy. While comps for the quarter were negative, the market continues to build its digital presence as they now have over 100 million active digital members. In addition, we've accelerated new restaurant growth in China. With over 500 new restaurants already opened this year, we now expect to open roughly 650 restaurants for the year, exceeding our original plan. China remains a critically important market for us and one where we have confidence in the long-term opportunity. So we plan to get even more aggressive in opening new restaurants in this market.

    中國繼續受到新冠疫情(6 月重啟並持續整個季度)和經濟疲軟的影響。雖然本季度的業績為負,但市場繼續建立其數字業務,因為他們現在擁有超過 1 億活躍的數字會員。此外,我們加快了在中國開設新餐廳的步伐。今年已經開設了 500 多家新餐廳,我們現在預計今年將開設大約 650 家餐廳,超出我們最初的計劃。中國對我們來說仍然是一個至關重要的市場,也是我們對長期機遇充滿信心的市場。因此,我們計劃更加積極地在這個市場開設新餐廳。

  • With our strong overall sales performance for the first 3 quarters of the year, we now expect system-wide sales to be up in the high teens in constant currencies for the full year.

    憑藉我們今年前 3 個季度強勁的整體銷售業績,我們現在預計全年以固定匯率計算的全系統銷售額將增長至十幾倍。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Chris to talk more about MCD growth pillars driving our global business.

    現在,我將把話題轉回克里斯,更多地談談推動我們全球業務的 MCD 增長支柱。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Kevin. Our results are a testament to the focus of our teams on driving growth through our M, C and Ds. And we're confident that momentum will continue. After playing a pivotal role in building out our [Fan Truth] strategy in the U.S., Morgan Flatley is transitioning into the role of Global Chief Marketing Officer. Following the instantly iconic global campaign Morgan developed with BTS, Famous Orders again crossed borders with both Russia and Spain launching successful campaigns with local celebrities in the third quarter. These markets leaned into the idea that truly, no matter how big or famous you are or where you are in the world, everyone has their go-to McDonald's order. As Morgan elevates to the global role, we're excited to welcome Tariq Hassan to the McFamily as Chief Marketing and Digital Customer Experience Officer for McDonald's U.S.A. I've known Tariq for many years and I'm confident Tariq will maintain our marketing momentum in the U.S.

    謝謝,凱文。我們的結果證明了我們的團隊專注於通過 M、C 和 D 推動增長。我們相信這種勢頭將繼續下去。在製定我們在美國的 [Fan Truth] 戰略中發揮了關鍵作用後,Morgan Flatley 正在轉變為全球首席營銷官的角色。繼摩根與 BTS 共同開發的標誌性全球活動之後,Famous Orders 在第三季度再次跨越了俄羅斯和西班牙的邊界,與當地名人成功開展了活動。這些市場傾向於這樣一種觀點,即無論你有多大或有多大名氣,或者你在世界的哪個地方,每個人都有自己的麥當勞訂單。隨著摩根晉升為全球角色,我們很高興歡迎 Tariq Hassan 加入 McFamily,擔任麥當勞美國首席營銷和數字客戶體驗官 我認識 Tariq 多年,我相信 Tariq 將保持我們的營銷勢頭美國

  • Behind our marketing success is McDonald's craveable core menu. In the U.S., Crispy Chicken Sandwich sales continue to exceed expectations. This translated into significant growth in QSR chicken market share as we continue to support the Crispy Chicken Sandwich platform with culturally relevant marketing.

    我們營銷成功的背後是麥當勞令人渴望的核心菜單。在美國,脆皮雞三明治的銷量繼續超出預期。這轉化為 QSR 雞肉市場份額的顯著增長,因為我們繼續通過文化相關營銷支持 Crispy Chicken Sandwich 平台。

  • In the U.K., we launched our McSpicy Sandwich, which generated the market's best chicken promotional results on record. And in Canada, our Spicy McNuggets promotion had a halo effect on McNuggets sales.

    在英國,我們推出了 McSpicy Sandwich,創造了市場上有史以來最好的雞肉促銷結果。在加拿大,我們的 Spicy McNuggets 促銷活動對 McNuggets 的銷售產生了光環效應。

  • This quarter, we introduced the McPlant Sandwich in Austria and the Netherlands as a limited time offer, and both the U.K. and Ireland launched the McPlant in a limited number of restaurants, with a goal to roll out nationwide in January. McPlant is available for other markets to pull down based on customer demand. As always, we'll do what McDonald's does best: listen to our customers. When people are ready for the McPlant, we'll be ready for them.

    本季度,我們在奧地利和荷蘭推出了 McPlant Sandwich 作為限時優惠,英國和愛爾蘭都在有限的餐廳中推出了 McPlant,目標是在 1 月份在全國推廣。 McPlant 可供其他市場根據客戶需求進行下拉。一如既往,我們將做麥當勞最擅長的事情:傾聽我們的客戶。當人們為 McPlant 做好準備時,我們也會為他們做好準備。

  • Being customer-driven is about more than just menu items. It's also about delivering feel-good experiences when and where our customers want McDonald's. So we can bring the Golden Arches to as many customers as possible. That means continuing to increase our engagement across drive-thru, digital and delivery. As we do that, we're seeing an increase in sales mix across these channels. In our top 6 markets, over 20% of sales, or about $13 billion, year-to-date came through digital channels, whether it was through our app, kiosk in our restaurants or delivery. Our loyalty program has been an instant fan favorite and delivers great value to our most loyal customers. It also creates another touch point to increase engagement and take our relationship with customers to more responsive, more personalized places.

    以客戶為導向不僅僅是菜單項。這也是關於在我們的客戶想要麥當勞的時間和地點提供感覺良好的體驗。因此,我們可以將金色拱門帶給盡可能多的客戶。這意味著繼續增加我們在得來速、數字和交付方面的參與度。當我們這樣做時,我們看到這些渠道的銷售組合有所增加。在我們的前 6 大市場中,今年迄今超過 20% 的銷售額(約 130 億美元)來自數字渠道,無論是通過我們的應用程序、我們餐廳的售貨亭還是外賣。我們的忠誠度計劃立即受到粉絲的喜愛,並為我們最忠誠的客戶帶來了巨大的價值。它還創造了另一個接觸點,以增加參與度,並將我們與客戶的關係帶到更敏感、更個性化的地方。

  • We're already seeing increased customer satisfaction and higher frequency among digital customers compared to nondigital. In September, we launched our loyalty program in Germany, quickly amassing millions of active rewards to customers. And we're on track to bring MyMcDonald's Rewards to Canada by the end of the year, and the U.K. and Australia in the first half of 2022, which means that by mid-2022, loyalty programs will be in our top 6 markets, inclusive of France, which has had a strong loyalty program for many years.

    與非數字客戶相比,我們已經看到數字客戶的客戶滿意度和頻率更高。 9 月,我們在德國推出了忠誠度計劃,迅速為客戶積累了數百萬的積極獎勵。我們有望在今年年底前將 MyMcDonald's Rewards 帶到加拿大,並在 2022 年上半年將英國和澳大利亞帶到英國和澳大利亞,這意味著到 2022 年年中,忠誠度計劃將進入我們的前 6 大市場,包括法國,多年來一直擁有強大的忠誠度計劃。

  • Delivery is another bet we made long before COVID and one that we believe will continue to be a staple for consumers for years to come. Over the past 5 years, our delivery footprint has grown from just 3,000 of our restaurants to more than 32,000 restaurants across 100 countries. As the needs of our customers have continued to change, delivery has enabled us to increase our reach and grow sales around the world. We're actively engaged in discussions with our largest delivery providers to support the extraordinary growth in our delivery business. We look forward to sharing more information on these global partnerships soon, but this is yet another example of where our scale confers upon us, competitive advantages.

    交付是我們在 COVID 之前很久就下的另一個賭注,我們相信未來幾年將繼續成為消費者的主食。在過去的 5 年中,我們的外賣足跡從僅有的 3,000 家餐廳發展到遍布 100 個國家/地區的 32,000 多家餐廳。隨著我們客戶的需求不斷變化,交付使我們能夠擴大我們的覆蓋範圍並在全球範圍內增加銷售額。我們正積極與我們最大的交付供應商進行討論,以支持我們交付業務的非凡增長。我們期待很快分享有關這些全球合作夥伴關係的更多信息,但這是我們的規模賦予我們競爭優勢的另一個例子。

  • Lastly, our drive-thrus. With the drive-thru presence that is second to none, our drive-thru sales across our top 6 markets continue to stay elevated versus pre-pandemic levels even as dining rooms reopen. We've previously shared that we have been testing automated order taking in the drive-thru at several restaurants in the U.S. This was enabled by our acquisition of Apprente, now known as McD Tech Labs in 2019. These tests have shown substantial benefits to customers and the crew experience.

    最後,我們的直通車。憑藉首屈一指的得來速服務,即使餐廳重新開放,我們在前 6 大市場的得來速銷售仍保持高於大流行前的水平。我們之前曾分享過,我們一直在美國的幾家餐廳測試自動點餐的得來速系統這是通過我們在 2019 年收購 Apprente(現稱為 McD Tech Labs)實現的。這些測試為客戶帶來了巨大的好處和船員的經驗。

  • To enable development and scale deployment of this program, McDonald's has now entered into a strategic relationship with IBM. In my mind, IBM is the ideal partner for McDonald's, given their expertise in building AI-powered customer care solutions and voice recognition. IBM will now acquire McD Tech Labs to further accelerate the development of automated order taking.

    為支持該計劃的開發和規模部署,麥當勞現已與 IBM 建立戰略合作關係。在我看來,IBM 是麥當勞的理想合作夥伴,因為他們在構建 AI 驅動的客戶服務解決方案和語音識別方面擁有專業知識。 IBM 現在將收購 McD Tech Labs,以進一步加快自動化接單的開發。

  • We're in a strong position today, focused on executing our plan, running great restaurants and taking advantage of our unique size and scale to feed and foster communities. For more on our Q3 financials and our outlook moving forward, I'll turn it back over to Kevin.

    今天,我們處於有利地位,專注於執行我們的計劃,經營一流的餐廳,並利用我們獨特的規模和規模來養活和培育社區。有關我們第三季度財務狀況和我們未來展望的更多信息,我將把它交給凱文。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Chris. Our strong performance for the quarter resulted in adjusted earnings per share of $2.76, which excludes a gain as we completed the partial divestiture of our ownership in McDonald's Japan. Our strong sales generated an increase in restaurant margins of about $500 million for the quarter.

    謝謝,克里斯。我們本季度的強勁表現導致調整後的每股收益為 2.76 美元,其中不包括我們完成對日本麥當勞所有權的部分剝離所帶來的收益。我們強勁的銷售使本季度的餐廳利潤增加了約 5 億美元。

  • G&A increased about 20% in constant currencies for the quarter, driven by higher incentive-based compensation expense as a result of company performance exceeding our plan this year. We still expect G&A to be about 2.4% of system-wide sales for the full year.

    由於公司業績超出我們今年的計劃,基於激勵的薪酬支出增加,本季度的 G&A 增長了約 20%。我們仍預計 G&A 將佔全年全系統銷售額的 2.4% 左右。

  • Year-to-date adjusted operating margin was 44.3%, reflecting the improved restaurant margins across all segments and higher other operating income compared to last year. Foreign currency translation benefited Q3 results by $0.04 per share. Based on current exchange rates, we expect currency to have a minimal impact on fourth quarter EPS with an estimated full year benefit of $0.21 to $0.23. As usual, this is directional guidance only as rates will likely change as we move through the rest of the year.

    年初至今調整後的營業利潤率為 44.3%,反映出所有分部的餐廳利潤率均有所提高,其他營業收入與去年相比有所提高。外幣換算使第三季度業績每股收益 0.04 美元。根據當前匯率,我們預計貨幣對第四季度每股收益的影響最小,預計全年收益為 0.21 美元至 0.23 美元。像往常一樣,這只是方向指導,因為隨著我們在今年剩餘時間裡利率可能會發生變化。

  • And finally, in September, our Board of Directors approved a 7% dividend increase to the equivalent of $5.52 annually. This marked 45 years of increasing our dividend for shareholders, further reinforcing our confidence in accelerating the Arches. We also announced the resumption of our share repurchase program. As a reminder, we have suspended share buybacks at the beginning of the pandemic as we took on additional debt to provide liquidity support to the McDonald's system. Since then, we've been focused on returning to pre-COVID debt ratios that support our strong investment-grade credit rating. Going forward, we're confident that our operating performance will continue to fuel growth in our already-strong free cash flow profile. As a result, we're committed to our historical capital allocation priorities. First, to invest in new restaurants, existing restaurants and opportunities to grow the business. Then we expect to return all free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases over time.

    最後,在 9 月,我們的董事會批准將股息增加 7%,相當於每年 5.52 美元。這標誌著我們 45 年來為股東增加股息,進一步增強了我們對加速拱門的信心。我們還宣布恢復我們的股票回購計劃。提醒一下,我們在大流行開始時暫停了股票回購,因為我們承擔了額外的債務以為麥當勞系統提供流動性支持。從那時起,我們一直專注於恢復支持我們強大的投資級信用評級的 COVID 之前的債務比率。展望未來,我們相信我們的經營業績將繼續推動我們本已強勁的自由現金流狀況的增長。因此,我們致力於我們歷史上的資本配置優先事項。首先,投資新餐廳、現有餐廳和發展業務的機會。然後,我們希望隨著時間的推移通過股息和股票回購的組合將所有自由現金流返還給股東。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Chris to close.

    現在我將把它轉回給克里斯關閉。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Kevin. We've accomplished so much the past 20 months. And even though the pandemic has greatly altered so much in our business and our world, it hasn't changed the simple fact that we're better together than we are apart.

    謝謝,凱文。在過去的 20 個月裡,我們取得瞭如此多的成就。儘管大流行在我們的業務和世界中發生了巨大變化,但它並沒有改變一個簡單的事實,即我們在一起比分開更好。

  • For a long time, we had to bridge physical separation with technology and new ways of working. But as vaccines have reached critical mass of people in the U.S. and some places around the world, we're beginning to see a different future taking shape. Finally, we're coming together again in our communities, and cities around the world are beginning to open up and get back to a new normal.

    長期以來,我們不得不將物理分離與技術和新的工作方式聯繫起來。但隨著疫苗在美國和世界各地的某些地方達到臨界人數,我們開始看到一個不同的未來正在形成。最後,我們再次在我們的社區聚在一起,世界各地的城市開始開放並恢復新常態。

  • The same is true for our global McFamily. After being closed for over 1.5 years, the McDonald's headquarters reopened on October 11, and it was inspiring to see teams collaborating again in person. To protect the health and safety of our staff, we required all U.S.-based corporate employees to get vaccinated, and we're continuing to monitor local data and seek guidance from public health officials. Even though we've only been back for a few short weeks, we have found that working in the office together spurs a level of collaboration, creativity and connectedness that simply could not be replicated from behind our screens. And we're going to be doing the same thing with our global system soon.

    我們的全球 McFamily 也是如此。關閉 1.5 年多後,麥當勞總部於 10 月 11 日重新開放,看到團隊再次親自合作令人鼓舞。為了保護我們員工的健康和安全,我們要求所有美國公司員工接種疫苗,我們將繼續監控當地數據並尋求公共衛生官員的指導。儘管我們只回來了短短幾週,但我們發現在辦公室一起工作會激發一定程度的協作、創造力和聯繫,這是在我們的屏幕後面根本無法複製的。我們很快就會對我們的全球系統做同樣的事情。

  • Next April, in Orlando, franchisees, suppliers and employees will convene for our worldwide convention in person for the first time in 4 years. It's already shaping up to be an experience unlike any other. Together, we'll showcase McDonald's bright future. We'll demonstrate the power of technology for our restaurants, learn how innovation is enhancing the customer experience and discuss plans in the pipeline to drive our Accelerating the Arches growth plan.

    明年 4 月,在奧蘭多,加盟商、供應商和員工將四年來首次親自參加我們的全球大會。它已經成為一種與眾不同的體驗。我們將共同展示麥當勞的美好未來。我們將為我們的餐廳展示技術的力量,了解創新如何增強客戶體驗,並討論正在製定的計劃以推動我們的加速拱門增長計劃。

  • As I've said before, it's not only important that we grow, it's equally important that we grow sustainably and in ways that positively impact the communities we serve. Driving climate action has been a centerpiece of our long-term strategy for a while now, and our focus has sharpened. In fact, in 2014, we established public commitments intended to make our entire system more sustainable by 2020. Among our goals were to sustainably source 100% of key ingredients, including coffee and beef.

    正如我之前所說,我們的成長不僅重要,同樣重要的是我們的可持續發展並以對我們所服務的社區產生積極影響的方式發展。一段時間以來,推動氣候行動一直是我們長期戰略的核心,我們的關注點也更加突出。事實上,在 2014 年,我們制定了公開承諾,旨在到 2020 年使我們的整個系統更具可持續性。我們的目標之一是可持續採購 100% 的關鍵原料,包括咖啡和牛肉。

  • Looking back, this was just the beginning of what would become a much bolder agenda that we are pursuing with urgency. As the threats to our planet have grown, we are responding with a more ambitious plan for ourselves and for the entire industry. We achieved many of our 2020 goals ahead of schedule, and we built upon that momentum to set new ambitious targets. Just this past September, we announced that we would reduce the use of conventional virgin plastics in Happy Meal toys by 90% by 2025. We recently announced our ambition to achieve net 0 emissions across global operations by 2050, and we joined the UN race to 0. And I look forward to sharing more of our sustainability story with climate delegates at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26 in Glasgow next week.

    回首過去,這只是我們迫切追求的更大膽議程的開始。隨著對我們星球的威脅越來越大,我們正在為自己和整個行業製定更雄心勃勃的計劃。我們提前實現了 2020 年的許多目標,並在這一勢頭的基礎上設定了新的雄心勃勃的目標。就在去年 9 月,我們宣佈到 2025 年,我們將在 Happy Meal 玩具中使用傳統原生塑料減少 90%。我們最近宣布了到 2050 年在全球運營中實現淨零排放的雄心,並且我們加入了聯合國競賽0. 我期待在下周於格拉斯哥舉行的聯合國氣候變化大會(即 COP26)上與氣候代表分享更多我們的可持續發展故事。

  • We believe we have both a privilege and a responsibility to help lead on issues that matter most in communities, and there is no issue more globally important and locally impactful than protecting our planet for generations to come. This is why I continue to remain optimistic about what lies ahead for McDonald's. Accelerating the Arches, fortified by our purpose and guided by our values, makes me confident not just in the future successes of our business, but also for the future of the communities that we serve. With that, we'll begin Q&A.

    我們相信,我們有特權也有責任幫助領導解決社區中最重要的問題,沒有比為子孫後代保護我們的星球更具有全球重要性和當地影響力的問題了。這就是為什麼我繼續對麥當勞的未來保持樂觀的原因。加速拱門,以我們的宗旨和價值觀為指導,讓我不僅對我們業務的未來成功充滿信心,而且對我們所服務社區的未來充滿信心。有了這個,我們將開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our first question is from Andrew Charles with Cowen.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Andrew Charles 和 Cowen。

  • Andrew Michael Charles - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Michael Charles - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Chris or Kevin, just wanted to ask about the staffing environment. You touched on it a little bit, but to the degree that it was a headwind in 3Q, to your very strong U.S. same-store sales, I'd be curious from what we're hearing, it seems to be a bigger issue as the quarter progressed. And you talked about how there's going to be low double-digit same-store sales in 4Q. You're seeing that in October. You're obviously very strong, but does just a bit of a deceleration from the very strong sales you saw in the quarter. So curious if you can help with any numbers to kind of help parse that out a little bit more, given it's a challenge for everybody. And I would think that McDonald's is better positioned, but not immune.

    Chris 或 Kevin,只是想詢問一下人員配置環境。你談到了一點,但就第三季度的逆風而言,對於你非常強勁的美國同店銷售,我會從我們聽到的內容中感到好奇,這似乎是一個更大的問題,因為本季度取得進展。你談到了第四季度同店銷售額將如何低至兩位數。你會在 10 月看到這一點。您顯然非常強大,但與您在本季度看到的非常強勁的銷售相比略有減速。很好奇你是否可以幫助任何數字來幫助更多地解析它,因為這對每個人來說都是一個挑戰。我認為麥當勞的定位更好,但也不能倖免。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. I'll start and then let Kevin fill in any other points on this. But certainly, it's a very challenging staffing environment in the U.S., a little bit less so in Europe, but still challenging in Europe.

    當然。我將開始,然後讓凱文填寫關於此的任何其他要點。但可以肯定的是,在美國,這是一個非常具有挑戰性的人員配置環境,在歐洲略遜一籌,但在歐洲仍然具有挑戰性。

  • In the U.S., for us, we are seeing, as I've mentioned a few calls ago, that there is wage inflation. Our franchisees are increasing wages. They're over 10% wage inflation year-to-date that we're seeing in our McOpCo restaurants. We're up over 15% on wages. And that is having some helpful benefit. Certainly, the higher wages that you pay, it allows you to stay competitive. But we're also seeing that it's just -- it's very challenging right now in the market to find the level of talent that you need. And so for us, it is putting some pressure on things like operating hours, where we might be dialing back late night, for example, from what we would ordinarily be doing. It's also putting some pressure around speed of service, where we are down a little bit on speed of service over the last kind of year-to-date and even in the last quarter. That's also a function of not being able to have the restaurants fully staffed.

    在美國,對我們來說,正如我之前在幾次電話會議中提到的那樣,我們看到了工資上漲。我們的加盟商正在增加工資。年初至今,我們在 McOpCo 餐廳看到的工資通脹率超過 10%。我們的工資上漲了 15% 以上。這有一些有益的好處。當然,你支付的工資越高,它可以讓你保持競爭力。但我們也看到,現在在市場上找到您需要的人才水平非常具有挑戰性。因此,對我們來說,這給諸如營業時間之類的事情帶來了一些壓力,例如,我們可能會在深夜撥回我們通常會做的事情。這也給服務速度帶來了一些壓力,在今年迄今為止的最後一種服務速度上,甚至在最後一個季度,我們的服務速度都有所下降。這也是無法讓餐廳配備齊全的功能。

  • But I would just -- I would tell you that it's not unsolvable either. And we're seeing in our McOpCo restaurants that a really strong focus on the shift manager and providing the training to the shift managers to keep engaged with the crew to keep the crew motivated that, that can make a difference. But certainly, I was hoping and expecting that we were going to see the situation improve maybe a little bit more quickly than what's materialized. And I think it is going to continue to be a difficult environment for the next several quarters.

    但我會——我會告訴你,這也不是無法解決的。我們在我們的 McOpCo 餐廳看到,非常重視輪班經理,並為輪班經理提供培訓,以保持與工作人員的互動,以保持工作人員的積極性,這可以產生影響。但可以肯定的是,我希望並期待我們會看到情況的改善可能比實際情況快一點。而且我認為在接下來的幾個季度中,這將繼續是一個艱難的環境。

  • Kevin, I don't know if you have anything you want to add.

    凱文,我不知道你有沒有什麼要補充的。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • Just to touch on your point about Q4 2-year comps for the U.S. and I guess the fact that they're decelerating a little bit from second and third quarter. A couple of things there, I guess, I'd say. One would be I think we're pretty pleased to see 2-year comps in low double digits. That's certainly higher than our historical levels. And if we're able to sustain that for a long period of time, I think we'd be pretty happy with that. Certainly, there have been some changes that have gone on related to more of the full-service restaurants reopening, stimulus benefits, unemployment benefits rolling off. And so we weren't sure how much that would impact our results and are pretty pleased that we're still able to achieve the double-digit comps. And so I think we feel pretty good about going into fourth quarter right now in the U.S.

    只是為了談談你關於美國第四季度 2 年比較的觀點,我猜他們從第二和第三季度開始有所減速。那裡有幾件事,我想,我會說。一個是我認為我們很高興看到低兩位數的 2 年補償。這肯定高於我們的歷史水平。如果我們能夠長期維持這種狀態,我想我們會很高興的。當然,與更多的全方位服務餐廳重新開業、刺激福利、失業救濟金減少有關,已經發生了一些變化。所以我們不確定這會對我們的結果產生多大影響,並且很高興我們仍然能夠實現兩位數的組合。所以我認為我們現在對在美國進入第四季度感覺很好。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Eric Gonzalez with KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Eric Gonzalez。

  • Eric Andrew Gonzalez - VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Eric Andrew Gonzalez - VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • My question is on pricing. I'm just wondering if you can comment on the current level of pricing in the U.S. system or maybe discuss what you think is the appropriate level in the current environment and whether you're seeing any consumer pushback?

    我的問題是關於定價。我只是想知道您是否可以評論美國系統當前的定價水平,或者討論您認為當前環境下的適當水平以及您是否看到任何消費者的抵制?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Eric. Certainly, pricing and cost pressures are a bigger focus over the last few quarters than they had been previously. Last quarter, I think I talked about how we were seeing roughly a 6% increase year-over-year in the U.S. We are still seeing that, and that's pretty much the level we expect for the full year 2021 over 2020, right around that 6%. And that's really to cover both labor cost pressures and commodity cost pressures that we're seeing.

    是的。謝謝你的問題,埃里克。當然,定價和成本壓力是過去幾個季度比以往更大的焦點。上個季度,我想我談到了我們如何看到美國同比增長大約 6% 我們仍然看到這一點,這幾乎是我們對 2021 年全年比 2020 年的預期水平,就在那個附近6%。這實際上是為了涵蓋我們所看到的勞動力成本壓力和商品成本壓力。

  • If we step back for a second, obviously, we're all seeing the environment out there on a global basis, which is some pressure on commodities, certainly some pressure on labor availability and cost, supply chain disruptions, et cetera, that are all putting some pressure. We haven't seen, I'll say, any more resistant to our price increases than we've seen historically. So that -- the 6% has been pretty well received by customers. We do certainly have a very big focus to make sure that we are balancing cost pressures and being able to cover those, with making sure that our value perception by customers continue to be favorable. And we are continuing to see those surveys and scores, from a value favorability perspective, still positive from customers. So we'll continue to keep an eye on it.

    如果我們退後一步,顯然,我們都在全球範圍內看到環境,這是對商品的一些壓力,當然是對勞動力供應和成本的一些壓力,供應鏈中斷等等,這些都是施加一些壓力。我會說,我們沒有看到比歷史上更能抵抗我們的價格上漲。所以——這 6% 得到了客戶的好評。我們確實非常重視確保我們平衡成本壓力並能夠應對這些壓力,同時確保我們對客戶的價值認知繼續保持良好。從價值偏好的角度來看,我們繼續看到這些調查和評分仍然受到客戶的好評。所以我們會繼續關注它。

  • From a commodity perspective, commodities were up roughly 2% or so through the first 9 months, but we expect for the full year for those to be up roughly 3.5% to 4%, which will put a little bit of additional pressure on the fourth quarter, obviously. And then going into next year from a food and paper cost perspective, we would expect our cost to be up relatively in line with the industry. Right now, that expectation is roughly mid-single digits. And so we will continue to keep an eye both on the cost side and the pricing side.

    從大宗商品的角度來看,前 9 個月大宗商品上漲約 2%,但我們預計全年上漲約 3.5% 至 4%,這將給第四季度帶來一點額外壓力季度,顯然。然後從食品和紙張成本的角度進入明年,我們預計我們的成本將與行業相對增長。目前,這種預期大約是個位數的中位數。因此,我們將繼續關注成本方面和定價方面。

  • Both we and our franchisees, over the last couple of years, have been using a third party for pricing advisory services, if you will, using a pretty deep consumer-based research approach. And so we have, I think, more science built into our pricing decisions that take into account market conditions, competitive factors, et cetera. So like I said, we'll keep a close eye on cost and pricing. But right now, so far, it's been received okay by customers.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們和我們的加盟商都一直在使用第三方進行定價諮詢服務,如果你願意的話,使用了一種非常深入的基於消費者的研究方法。因此,我認為,我們在定價決策中加入了更多的科學,這些決策考慮了市場條件、競爭因素等。所以就像我說的,我們將密切關注成本和定價。但是現在,到目前為止,它得到了客戶的好評。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Jared Garber with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jared Garber。

  • Jared Garber - Business Analyst

    Jared Garber - Business Analyst

  • I wanted to shift the topic a little bit over to the unit growth side of the equation. And if you can give us an update on what you're seeing in terms of unit opens and the availability of both labor and equipment and construction and permitting across both the U.S. and international segments. I think the IOM segment came in a bit light in terms of unit opens this quarter, but you also increased the net unit growth for the year. So just any color on framing out some of the puts and takes there would be really helpful.

    我想將話題稍微轉移到等式的單位增長方面。如果你能告訴我們你在單位開放方面看到的最新情況,以及美國和國際部門的勞動力和設備的可用性以及建築和許可方面的情況。我認為 IOM 細分市場在本季度開放的單位方面有點清淡,但你也增加了今年的淨單位增長。因此,任何一種顏色來框定一些看跌期權都會非常有幫助。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Jared, for the question. I'll take that. I think it is fair to say, again, just thinking about the global environment, there are certainly supply chain challenges across the world on various things related to kitchen equipment; technology equipment; I'll say, pandemic-related disruptions; slower permitting times. All the things that you mentioned are making it a bigger challenge, I'll say, to get restaurants open than historically.

    是的。謝謝,賈里德,這個問題。我會接受的。我認為公平地說,再一次考慮到全球環境,世界各地在與廚房設備相關的各種事情上肯定存在供應鏈挑戰;技術設備;我會說,與大流行相關的中斷;較慢的許可時間。我會說,你提到的所有事情都使餐廳開業成為一個比以往更大的挑戰。

  • For this year, we still expect roughly, in our IOM and U.S. markets, it's down a little bit from where we were previously. There will be a few that will spill over now into 2022. That's more of a timing issue than anything else. And so because of things taking a little bit longer, some of the openings that we thought we may be able to get done this year will spill into beginning of 2022.

    今年,我們仍然粗略地預計,在我們的 IOM 和美國市場,它比我們之前的水平略有下降。現在會有一些溢出到 2022 年。這更像是一個時間問題,而不是其他任何事情。因此,由於事情需要更長的時間,我們認為今年可以完成的一些職位空缺將延續到 2022 年初。

  • Going forward, I think we're still bullish on openings. We still expect our openings to increase, both in our wholly owned markets as well as our developmental licensed markets next year. The increase that you saw right now for 2021 is being primarily driven by China and a few other developmental licensed markets. So that's why the overall openings is up this year.

    展望未來,我認為我們仍然看好空缺。我們仍然預計明年我們的全資市場以及我們的開發許可市場的開業人數都會增加。您現在看到的 2021 年增長主要是由中國和其他一些發展許可市場推動的。所以這就是為什麼今年的整體開口率上升的原因。

  • But I'd say overall, it's a bigger challenge than it has been, but our supply chain does a phenomenal job of kind of just managing the whole process, making sure that we've got contingency plans. We're in touch extremely frequently with all of our suppliers. And I feel pretty good about where we are compared to where others may be just because of the strength of our supply chain. But I think it is fair to say that it's a bigger challenge than it's been historically.

    但總的來說,這是一個比以往更大的挑戰,但我們的供應鏈在管理整個過程方面做得非常出色,確保我們有應急計劃。我們與所有供應商都非常頻繁地聯繫。由於我們的供應鏈實力,我覺得我們與其他人相比的位置非常好。但我認為公平地說,這是一個比歷史上更大的挑戰。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Jeff Bernstein with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeff Bernstein。

  • Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Just a question on the IOM markets. It sounds like you mentioned the recovery is somewhat staggered. Just wondering kind of your bigger picture thoughts in terms of whether you expect the comp recovery in, I believe, you said Australia, Germany and France, whether you think those markets will ultimately accelerate to the U.K. and Canada levels and maybe providing the next leg of comp growth. Or on the flip side, are there reasons why you think those markets will continue to lag, whether structural or otherwise? Any thoughts there would be great.

    只是關於 IOM 市場的一個問題。聽起來你提到復蘇有些交錯。只是想知道你的大局想法,我相信你是否預計澳大利亞、德國和法國的經濟復甦,你是否認為這些市場最終會加速到英國和加拿大的水平,並可能提供下一站補償增長。或者另一方面,您是否有理由認為這些市場將繼續滯後,無論是結構性的還是其他方面的?任何想法都會很棒。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure. I'll start off and then again, Kevin can pick up anything that I missed here. But I think overall, we remain very optimistic about our international portfolio. In the markets where we're seeing restrictions relaxed, those businesses are bouncing back and bouncing back in a very healthy way.

    是的,當然。我會開始,然後再一次,凱文可以撿起我在這裡錯過的任何東西。但我認為總的來說,我們對我們的國際投資組合仍然非常樂觀。在我們看到放寬限制的市場中,這些企業正在以非常健康的方式反彈並反彈。

  • The markets that you mentioned, like in Australia, like in France, they have certainly had to navigate a more restrictive COVID environment. We did get a peak earlier in the year when things appeared to be getting better before the Delta variant that those markets were poised to spring back.

    你提到的市場,比如在澳大利亞,比如在法國,他們當然不得不在一個更嚴格的 COVID 環境中航行。我們確實在今年早些時候達到了一個高峰,當時在這些市場準備反彈的 Delta 變體之前情況似乎正在好轉。

  • So from our expectation, as soon as the conditions in those markets start to become more favorable in terms of being able to return to normal operating conditions, we expect those markets are going to perform in a very healthy way because that's how they were performing pre-pandemic. So there's nothing structural that would make us concerned about their ability to bounce back.

    因此,根據我們的預期,一旦這些市場的條件開始變得更加有利,能夠恢復正常運營條件,我們預計這些市場將以非常健康的方式表現,因為這就是它們之前的表現-大流行病。因此,沒有任何結構性因素會讓我們擔心他們反彈的能力。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • The only other thing I'd add is there are a couple of countries, the Spain and a little bit of France also, where they are more reliant on tourism. So as tourism starts getting back and returning a lot, that should help those countries, too. But some of the slower countries to come back are some of the more tourist-heavy countries as well as having some of these vaccine passports that just add some logistical challenges with kind of checking customers coming in. But as Chris said, there isn't anything structural that prevent all those countries from coming back strong.

    我要補充的唯一另一件事是有幾個國家,西班牙和法國的一小部分,他們更依賴旅遊業。因此,隨著旅遊業開始恢復並大量返回,這也應該對這些國家有所幫助。但一些回歸較慢的國家是一些遊客較多的國家,以及一些疫苗護照,這只會增加一些後勤方面的挑戰,以檢查顧客的進來。但正如克里斯所說,沒有任何阻止所有這些國家恢復強大的結構性因素。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Brian Bittner。

  • Brian John Bittner - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian John Bittner - MD & Senior Analyst

  • You had a breakout operating margin performance in 3Q, and your consolidated EBIT margins year-to-date are now above 44%. And so the question is, how do you want us to think about the EBIT margin opportunity in a post-2021 world? Is there an opportunity to keep expanding from this elevated EBIT margin level? I know there's more opportunity to leverage G&A and leverage D&A. But there's also a lot of inflation out there. So any color would be helpful.

    您在第三季度取得了突破性的營業利潤率表現,年初至今您的綜合息稅前利潤率現已超過 44%。所以問題是,您希望我們如何看待 2021 年後世界的息稅前利潤機會?是否有機會從這個較高的息稅前利潤率水平繼續擴張?我知道有更多機會利用 G&A 和 D&A。但也有很多通貨膨脹。所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Brian. Relating to our operating margins, I think at our investor update last year, we talked about for '21 and '22, we thought operating margins would be pretty much in the mid to low 40s. I think that's still our thinking right now. There will be some near-term moderation potentially of restaurant margins as some of the labor costs and commodity costs kick in, but we also expect to get leverage as sales are improving.

    是的。謝謝你的問題,布賴恩。關於我們的營業利潤率,我認為在我們去年的投資者更新中,我們談到了 21 年和 22 年,我們認為營業利潤率幾乎會在 40 年代中期到低點。我想這仍然是我們現在的想法。隨著一些勞動力成本和商品成本的增加,餐廳的利潤率可能會在短期內有所放緩,但隨著銷售的改善,我們也預計會獲得槓桿作用。

  • We're currently in the midst of working through our 2022 plan. So I don't have exactly specifics. But I think generally, that mid to low 40s is the way we've been thinking about it, both for this year and for next year.

    我們目前正在製定我們的 2022 年計劃。所以我沒有確切的細節。但我認為一般來說,40 歲左右是我們一直在考慮的方式,無論是今年還是明年。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from David Tarantino with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德的大衛塔倫蒂諾。

  • David E. Tarantino - Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    David E. Tarantino - Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I was hoping that you would elaborate a little bit more on the loyalty program and what you're seeing there in the early stages and just in terms of kind of what it's doing to the business currently. And then also, if you could give some perspective on how you're collecting data and what you're planning to use or to do with the data that you're collecting as you move into the next few years?

    我希望您能詳細說明忠誠度計劃以及您在早期階段看到的情況,以及目前對業務的影響。然後,如果您可以就您如何收集數據以及您計劃使用什麼或如何處理您在未來幾年收集的數據提供一些觀點?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, we're really pleased with how loyalty is starting off in the U.S. We're seeing a similar very nice start to it in Germany and Canada. So we are -- the more we learn about loyalty, the more optimistic that we get about loyalty. I think for us, in terms of what that means for the business long term, certainly that the benefits you get with the loyalty program is the ability to increase frequency. And in the markets where we operate, roughly 80% of the population visits a McDonald's once a year.

    當然。好吧,我們對忠誠度在美國的起步方式感到非常滿意。我們在德國和加拿大看到了類似的非常好的開始。所以我們——我們對忠誠度了解得越多,我們對忠誠度就越樂觀。我認為對我們來說,就這對業務的長期意義而言,忠誠度計劃的好處當然是提高頻率的能力。在我們經營的市場中,大約 80% 的人口每年光顧一次麥當勞。

  • So it's not that we have a reach opportunity, it's about driving frequency in this business. And we've seen in the places that where we have deployed loyalty that it absolutely does increase customer frequency. So for us, that's really encouraging.

    所以這並不是說我們有機會,而是在這個業務中提高頻率。我們已經在我們部署忠誠度的地方看到,它絕對確實增加了客戶頻率。所以對我們來說,這真的很令人鼓舞。

  • I think to the broader point of what do you do with the data, we had set out earlier an aspiration where we wanted to have 40% of our customers be known customers. Today, that number is probably only about 5% of the customers where we actually know who is the customer, what do they buy, what have they bought previously. And then you can imagine all sorts of things that you're able to learn about customers and their preferences when you're able to get more and more of your transactions where you know who the customer is. And loyalty is certainly the way that you get that customer to engage and share information with you.

    我認為,從更廣泛的角度來看,您如何處理數據,我們早些時候提出了一個願望,即我們希望讓 40% 的客戶成為知名客戶。今天,這個數字可能只有大約 5% 的客戶,我們真正知道誰是客戶,他們買了什麼,他們以前買了什麼。然後,您可以想像當您能夠在知道客戶是誰的情況下獲得越來越多的交易時,您能夠了解客戶及其偏好的各種事情。忠誠度無疑是讓客戶與您互動並與您分享信息的方式。

  • So for us, I think we're just getting started on it, but very optimistic about what loyal -- loyalty can do in this business. And by mid next year, we're going to have loyalty in our top 6 markets. So I think the ability to give you a better idea of what exactly it's doing for the business, I think once we have that kind of scale and roll out, we'll be able to talk with even more specificity about it.

    所以對我們來說,我認為我們才剛剛開始,但對忠誠在這項業務中可以做什麼非常樂觀。到明年年中,我們將在前 6 大市場擁有忠誠度。因此,我認為能夠讓您更好地了解它對業務的確切作用,我認為一旦我們擁有這種規模並推出,我們將能夠更具體地談論它。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Next question is from Dennis Geiger with UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的丹尼斯蓋格。

  • Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

    Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

  • Chris, just wondering if you could speak a bit more to the strong momentum that you've got in the U.S. and roughly how you maintain that momentum and the market share gains going forward. I know you've been asked this question coming into the year and throughout the year. And I think you've consistently suggested the momentum would continue despite having to lap some of the strong results that you've gone up against, and you folks have done just that. So just kind of curious if you have any additional thoughts from here about how to think about that U.S. momentum going into '22, just perhaps framing up some of the key existing initiatives that maybe you've already touched on. And then at a high level, any kind of upcoming things that will help support that momentum as we go into next year.

    克里斯,只是想知道你是否可以多談談你在美國的強勁勢頭,以及你如何保持這種勢頭以及未來的市場份額增長。我知道你在今年和全年都被問到這個問題。而且我認為你一直暗示這種勢頭會繼續下去,儘管你不得不打破你所反對的一些強勁的結果,而你們正是這樣做的。因此,如果您對如何思考美國進入 22 年的勢頭有任何其他想法,只是有點好奇,也許只是製定一些您可能已經觸及的關鍵現有舉措。然後在高層次上,任何即將到來的事情都將有助於在我們進入明年時支持這種勢頭。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, I think a shout-out to the U.S. team and our owner operators for doing a great job of sustaining that momentum, as you mentioned, through what continues to be a challenging environment for all the reasons that have come up on this call, labor challenges, commodity inflation, et cetera. I think the momentum that we're seeing in the U.S. business is not something that just came about in the last couple of years. This was something that started several years ago with the foundation that we've put in place in the U.S. And the foundation was around modernizing our estate, improving the food, making investments in digital and delivery. And I think the fact that we were able to get all those things sort of embedded in the business back in, call it, 2017, 2018 set us up really well for what none of us could have predicted, which is what we've now experienced through COVID.

    當然。好吧,我想向美國團隊和我們的所有者運營商大聲喊叫,正如您所提到的,由於本次電話會議提出的所有原因,在仍然充滿挑戰的環境中,他們在維持這種勢頭方面做得很好,勞動力挑戰、商品通脹等。我認為我們在美國業務中看到的勢頭並不是過去幾年才出現的。這始於幾年前我們在美國建立的基金會。基金會圍繞著我們的莊園現代化、改善食品、對數字化和交付進行投資。而且我認為我們能夠將所有這些東西重新嵌入到業務中,稱之為 2017 年、2018 年,這一事實使我們能夠很好地應對我們所有人都無法預料的事情,這就是我們現在所擁有的經歷過COVID。

  • So I think for us, what I feel good about with the U.S. is we've got sort of the foundational elements in place for this business to outperform or perform quite well for an extended period of time. As to how you do that, it's going to be back to the strategy that we have with Accelerating the Arches. It's a focus on great marketing, driving core menu and outperforming on the 3Ds: delivery, drive-thru and digital.

    所以我認為對我們來說,我對美國的感覺很好的是,我們已經具備了一些基本要素,可以讓這項業務在很長一段時間內表現出色或表現良好。至於你如何做到這一點,這將回到我們加速拱門的策略。它專注於出色的營銷、推動核心菜單並在 3D 方面表現出色:交付、得來速和數字化。

  • And so for us, message that I'm talking about to the teams internally is we have the right strategy. It's all about execution. And we've got to execute at a really high level. If we do that, on those 3 dimensions, then I'm confident. But we also can't get complacent. And I think there's a good healthy level of dialogue going on in the U.S. right now about just keeping that hunger, keeping that momentum going. And once you've got it, you don't want to give it up, and that's the mindset right now.

    所以對我們來說,我在內部與團隊談論的信息是我們有正確的策略。一切都與執行有關。我們必須在一個非常高的水平上執行。如果我們在這三個維度上做到這一點,那麼我很有信心。但我們也不能自滿。而且我認為美國目前正在就保持這種飢餓感,保持這種勢頭進行良好的健康對話。一旦你得到它,你就不想放棄它,這就是現在的心態。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Next question is from John Glass with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約翰·格拉斯。

  • John Stephenson Glass - MD

    John Stephenson Glass - MD

  • First, on delivery, can you just update? I know you gave the total digital mix. What delivery makes up of that? And maybe quickly just since post-COVID, there's been acceleration in that, kind of where it stands now versus prior. You also, Chris, talked about maybe being more strategic in your partner, picking your partners in delivery. I just wonder if you could expand on that. And just finally, Kevin, I just want to make sure I understand. If you're selling the tech labs or transferring it to IBM, is there anything material we should know about either G&A or anything that would impact the financials due to that transaction?

    首先,在交付時,您可以更新嗎?我知道你給出了整個數字混音。什麼交付構成了它?而且可能很快就在 COVID 之後,這方面的速度正在加速,就像現在與以前相比。克里斯,你也談到了在你的合作夥伴中可能更具戰略性,在交付時選擇你的合作夥伴。我只是想知道您是否可以對此進行擴展。最後,凱文,我只是想確保我理解。如果您要出售技術實驗室或將其轉讓給 IBM,我們是否應該了解有關 G&A 或任何會因該交易而影響財務狀況的材料?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • We're trying to get all the parts of that question. Yes. I'll do the delivery question while Kevin is going through his notes on the other parts of this. But -- so we don't share a specific breakout on delivery, but suffice to say, delivery for us continues to be a really important driver for us. The business has grown by billions and billions. I think it's fair to share over the last several years. And we're continuing to see, even as markets reopen and things start to get back to normal in places where they're able to get the dining room, et cetera, back open, delivery remains elevated. And so for us, I think what has become apparent is delivery was meeting a customer need that I don't think any of us fully appreciated even maybe a few years ago. So it's here to stay.

    我們正在嘗試了解該問題的所有部分。是的。我會在 Kevin 閱讀他關於其他部分的筆記時做交付問題。但是——所以我們沒有分享具體的交付突破,但可以說,交付對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的驅動力。該業務已增長數十億美元。我認為在過去幾年中分享是公平的。而且我們繼續看到,即使市場重新開放並且事情開始恢復正常,在他們能夠讓餐廳等重新開放的地方,交付量仍然很高。因此,對我們來說,我認為顯而易見的是,交付滿足了客戶的需求,我認為我們中的任何人甚至可能在幾年前都沒有充分意識到這一點。所以它就在這裡。

  • What we're trying to do with our partners, the way that we had approached some of our delivery conversations previously with our 3PO partners, in many cases, those were discussions that were happening at the market level. And when you are a company the size and scale of McDonald's, we certainly have, we believe, a great proposition for 3PO partners on a global basis.

    我們正在嘗試與我們的合作夥伴一起做的事情,我們之前與我們的 3PO 合作夥伴進行一些交付對話的方式,在許多情況下,這些都是在市場層面進行的討論。如果您是一家像麥當勞一樣規模和規模的公司,我們相信,我們當然會為全球範圍內的 3PO 合作夥伴提供一個很好的建議。

  • And so what we're trying to do through these conversations is leverage the fact that we are the largest restaurant company in the world, that we have an ability to drive traffic onto 3PO apps that we think is second to none. And that, that should be reflected in the rates that we're paying with our 3PO partners. So those conversations are proceeding, but I'd say there is a good recognition on both sides that we need each other. And I'm optimistic that we'll be able to get to a good resolution on that in the next couple of months.

    因此,我們通過這些對話試圖做的是利用我們是世界上最大的餐飲公司這一事實,我們有能力將流量吸引到我們認為首屈一指的 3PO 應用程序上。這應該反映在我們與 3PO 合作夥伴支付的費率中。所以這些對話正在進行中,但我想說的是雙方都很好地認識到我們彼此需要。我很樂觀,我們將能夠在接下來的幾個月內就此達成一個很好的解決方案。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • And then just to follow up on your question related to the -- our transaction with IBM and the potential impact of that, there shouldn't be much of a financial statement impact of that. We had generally -- I forget, maybe about less than 100 people, I think, that were associated with that business. And so those folks will now go work with IBM.

    然後只是跟進您與我們與 IBM 的交易及其潛在影響相關的問題,不應該對財務報表產生太大影響。我們通常 - 我忘記了,我認為可能只有不到 100 人與該業務相關聯。因此,這些人現在將與 IBM 合作。

  • Really, the reason we're doing this with IBM is to be able to have someone that can take how far we've gotten right now with the solution and be able to kind of finish the development and then help us deploy this at scale. And so we're going to use their expertise certainly in AI and everything that they've learned from Watson, et cetera. But it isn't a big financial statement impact, plus or minus, I'll say, going forward from that.

    確實,我們與 IBM 合作的原因是能夠讓某人能夠在解決方案方面取得我們目前已經取得的進展,並且能夠完成開發,然後幫助我們大規模部署它。因此,我們肯定會利用他們在人工智能方面的專業知識以及他們從 Watson 等方面學到的一切。但這並不是對財務報表的重大影響,無論是正負,我會說,從那以後。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Chris Carril with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Chris Carril。

  • Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

    Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

  • So just following up on the U.S. business, you noted the benefit to average check from larger order sizes and menu pricing, which you gave us some detail on a little while ago. Can you comment on your view of the sustainability of recent average check drivers? It seems like some of the recent guest behaviors are remaining consistent around group ordering, maybe perhaps longer than expected. So curious as to your thoughts around your ability or focus on maintaining check growth and perhaps how digital helps drive this going forward?

    因此,在跟進美國業務時,您注意到較大訂單量和菜單定價對平均檢查的好處,您不久前向我們提供了一些細節。您能否評論一下您對近期平均支票司機可持續性的看法?似乎最近的一些客人行為在團體訂購方面保持一致,可能比預期的要長。對您對自己的能力或專注於保持支票增長的想法感到好奇,以及數字化如何幫助推動這一發展?

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I'll try, and I'll let Chris add on to this one. It's a good question, because you're right. I think early on in the pandemic, I think we believed that the average check would decline quicker than it certainly has. And I think the reason right now at least is because the channels that much of our sales are going through, which continue to be things like drive-thru, delivery, digital, as you mentioned, people are still going through and ordering for several people. If you're getting delivery, you're getting it for your family or for at least a couple of people. If -- a lot of the folks going through drive-thru are getting orders for several people. And so we are seeing those larger order sizes continue. And I think at least some of that will be stickier than we originally may have thought. So we don't anticipate, certainly in the near term, average check returning back to the level that was at pre-pandemic.

    是的。我會嘗試,我會讓克里斯添加到這個。這是一個很好的問題,因為你是對的。我認為在大流行的早期,我認為我們認為平均支票下降的速度會比它肯定的要快。而且我認為現在的原因至少是因為我們的大部分銷售正在通過的渠道,這些渠道仍然是得來速、送貨、數字化,正如你所提到的,人們仍在通過並為幾個人訂購.如果您要送貨,您是為您的家人或至少為幾個人送貨。如果 - 很多通過得來速的人得到幾個人的訂單。因此,我們看到這些更大的訂單規模仍在繼續。而且我認為至少其中一些會比我們最初想像的更具粘性。因此,我們預計,當然在短期內,平均支票不會回到大流行前的水平。

  • I think -- I lost my train of thought, but I do think we will continue to see -- the check continue to grow as those channels continue to grow. And like I said, we're not seeing any degradation of that check at this point.

    我認為 - 我失去了思路,但我確實認為我們將繼續看到 - 隨著這些渠道的繼續增長,支票繼續增長。就像我說的那樣,我們目前沒有看到該檢查的任何退化。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Maybe just to fill in here a few things, and I'll go back and quote my CFO from something that he said several quarters ago, which is we're still selling more stuff. We're still selling more sandwiches. We're still selling more fries. And so from a unit standpoint, while we certainly are looking at traffic, the absolute volume of what we're selling is continuing to grow. And for me, that's a really good barometer about the health of this business.

    也許只是在這裡填寫一些東西,我會回去引用我的首席財務官幾個季度前說過的話,那就是我們仍在銷售更多的東西。我們還在賣更多的三明治。我們還在賣更多的薯條。因此,從單位的角度來看,雖然我們當然在關注流量,但我們銷售的絕對數量仍在繼續增長。對我來說,這是衡量這項業務健康狀況的一個非常好的晴雨表。

  • I think, as to whether that's sustained, whether these larger parties, larger order sizes sustain, we're going to follow the customer to whichever way they want to go. If the customer starts to come back and split the ticket and we have smaller check, I think so long as we continue to focus on the execution, we'll be just fine on that. But certainly, I think what you're seeing right now, and what we're expecting is that some of the benefits that we're seeing around larger check and the mix, the channel mix that goes with that, we're expecting that to continue.

    我認為,至於這是否持續,這些更大的各方,更大的訂單規模是否持續,我們將跟隨客戶走他們想走的任何路。如果客戶開始回來分票並且我們的支票較小,我認為只要我們繼續專注於執行,我們就可以了。但可以肯定的是,我認為你現在所看到的,以及我們所期待的是,我們在更大的檢查和混合中看到的一些好處,隨之而來的渠道混合,我們期待接著說。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Lauren Silberman with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Lauren Silberman。

  • Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

    Lauren Danielle Silberman - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the McPlant test in the U.S. Can you talk about what you've heard from consumers with respect to demand for a plant-based option? And then from a franchisee perspective, both the demand to off-the-plant-based option on the menu, particularly given the current operating backdrop? And it looks like the test is being conducted in different cities. Is there anything you can share on differences in demand across the market from the perspective of both consumers and franchisees?

    我想問一下美國的 McPlant 測試。你能談談你從消費者那裡聽到的關於植物基選項的需求嗎?然後從加盟商的角度來看,菜單上對非工廠選項的需求,特別是考慮到當前的運營背景?看起來測試正在不同的城市進行。從消費者和加盟商的角度來看,您有什麼可以分享的關於整個市場的需求差異的信息嗎?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think in the U.S., it's really early to be making any kind of readout on what we're learning. I would point out, it's in less than 10 restaurants in the U.S. It's largely an operations test right now.

    是的。我認為在美國,對我們正在學習的內容進行任何形式的解讀都為時過早。我要指出的是,它在美國不到 10 家餐廳中。現在主要是一項運營測試。

  • Now there are other markets that are further along. The U.K. is in 250 restaurants, and they're going to be planning on doing a full national rollout in the U.K. in Q1. In that situation, I think we have more evidence that it is filling an unmet need that certainly existed in the U.K. on their menus. So early results in the U.K. are very encouraging. A couple of other markets as well in Europe have seen success with McPlant and the rollout on that.

    現在還有其他市場更進一步。英國有 250 家餐廳,他們計劃在第一季度在英國全面推廣。在這種情況下,我認為我們有更多的證據表明它正在滿足他們菜單上肯定存在於英國的未滿足需求。因此,英國的早期結果非常令人鼓舞。在歐洲的其他幾個市場也看到了 McPlant 的成功及其推出。

  • So I think this is one where we've said all along, we're going to let the markets decide when is the best time to pull it down based on what the customer acceptance or interest is in this concept. I think certainly, I can say at this point, there are definitely a couple of European markets where there is customer acceptance for it. Whether that is a broad-based acceptance in the U.S., I think we'll learn that over the next several quarters.

    所以我認為這是我們一直在說的,我們將讓市場根據客戶對這個概念的接受度或興趣來決定何時是最好的時機。我認為當然,我現在可以說,肯定有幾個歐洲市場有客戶接受它。無論這是否是美國的廣泛接受,我認為我們將在接下來的幾個季度中了解到這一點。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Brian Mullan with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Mullan。

  • Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

    Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

  • Just a follow up on the unit growth topic specific to the IOM segment. Putting aside transitory-related and timing-related issues, do you see any opportunity to go faster on development there over the next few years versus what you might have previously been planning for prior to the pandemic? And if you do see increased opportunity, is there any kind of upper limit in terms of the number of gross openings that make sense for that business? Is it just a function of managing the level of CapEx spend that you're comfortable with? Or are there actual operational constraints to think about, too?

    只是對特定於 IOM 部分的單位增長主題的跟進。撇開與暫時性和時間性相關的問題不談,與大流行之前您之前可能計劃的相比,您是否認為在未來幾年內有任何機會加快開發速度?如果您確實看到機會增加,那麼對於該業務有意義的總空缺數量是否有任何上限?它只是管理您滿意的資本支出水平的功能嗎?或者是否也有實際的操作限制需要考慮?

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Brian. I think to be fair, we had started thinking about accelerating some of the openings internationally, even pre-pandemic. Certainly, nothing that's happened in the pandemic has changed our thinking at all related to that and, if anything, I think, just reinforces our opportunity to continue growing in many of those International Operated Markets.

    是的。謝謝你的問題,布賴恩。我認為公平地說,我們已經開始考慮加速國際上的一些開放,甚至在大流行之前。當然,在大流行中發生的任何事情都沒有改變我們與此相關的想法,如果有的話,我認為只會加強我們在許多國際運營市場中繼續增長的機會。

  • As far as any constraints, I think the constraints really are -- from a market perspective, there is kind of a sweet spot of what they can open in terms of building a pipeline, having the right real estate representatives, opening in a way that it isn't disruptive to the rest of the market. So we do have a lot of tools that we use to determine kind of what the appropriate opening level is for the markets.

    就任何限製而言,我認為這些限制確實存在——從市場的角度來看,在建設管道、擁有合適的房地產代表、以一種它不會對市場的其他部分造成破壞。因此,我們確實有很多工具可以用來確定適合市場的開盤水平。

  • I think we do have opportunity to open quicker in many of those markets than we have been. And I think our expectation is that we will continue to grow in many of those International Operated Markets where we still believe there's a lot of opportunity. We're just in the midst of going through our plans right now for 2022. So I don't have specifics yet for 2022. But I think it is fair to say that we would expect our openings next year to be higher than they are in 2021 and continue to kind of increase that level for a little while where we will.

    我認為我們確實有機會在其中許多市場上比以往更快地開放。我認為我們的期望是,我們將在許多我們仍然相信有很多機會的國際運營市場中繼續增長。我們現在正在製定 2022 年的計劃。所以我還沒有 2022 年的具體細節。但我認為可以公平地說,我們預計明年的開業人數會比現在高到 2021 年,並繼續在一段時間內提高這一水平。

  • We've talked about unit growth being about 1.5% to 2% contribution to sales growth. Right now, we're at the lower end of that, more of the 1.5%, and likely not a lot above that for '22 because it really relates to '21 openings. But as we go on, I would expect that to get closer to that 2% contribution.

    我們已經談到單位增長對銷售增長的貢獻約為 1.5% 到 2%。目前,我們處於 1.5% 的低端,並且可能不會比 22 年高很多,因為它確實與 21 年的空缺有關。但隨著我們的繼續,我預計會接近 2% 的貢獻。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Next question is from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • What about drive-thru, digital and delivery? The question really is on dine-in. And as you've seen various consumers in various markets respond in a post-COVID environment in terms of their behavior, what are you kind of thinking about using dine-in longer term? And do you have an opportunity to pivot that asset even further to focus more on the off-premise consumer as we think about leveraging all of the assets, not just part of it.

    得來速、數字和交付呢?問題真的在於堂食。正如您所看到的,各個市場的各種消費者在 COVID 後的環境中對他們的行為做出了反應,您對長期使用堂食有何看法?當我們考慮利用所有資產,而不僅僅是其中的一部分時,您是否有機會進一步調整該資產以更多地關注場外消費者。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's a great question, and it is one that we're thinking about. It's something that is now on the plate for Manu Steijaert. Manu is, as we announced, I think, last quarter it was, that he's the Chief Customer Officer. And one of the things that fits in Manu's portfolio is he has both restaurant design operations as well as the customer experience. And so thinking about what is going to be the consumer acceptance on a sustaining basis for dine-in coming out of this and then what are the implications of that, I would add, we have a lot of play places in our restaurants, what is the implication for the play space.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題,也是我們正在考慮的問題。這是 Manu Steijaert 現在正在考慮的事情。正如我們宣布的那樣,我認為 Manu 是上個季度的首席客戶官。適合 Manu 投資組合的一件事是他既有餐廳設計業務,也有客戶體驗。因此,考慮一下消費者對堂食的持續接受程度,以及由此產生的影響,我要補充的是,我們的餐廳有很多遊樂場所,什麼是對遊戲空間的影響。

  • So we are just now starting to think about that and think about potential scenarios for how you might reuse the space, if dine-in doesn't come back to the level that it was pre-pandemic. But I think right now, it's still a little bit preliminary just because there's still noise in the dine-in numbers that I don't want to do anything hasty here until we just get a better beat on what does dine-in sustain at. But it's certainly something for us to be thinking about.

    因此,我們現在才剛剛開始考慮這一點,並考慮如果就餐沒有恢復到大流行前的水平,您如何重新利用空間的潛在方案。但我認為現在,它仍然有點初步,只是因為就餐人數仍然存在噪音,我不想在這裡做任何倉促的事情,直到我們更好地了解就餐支持的內容。但這肯定是我們需要考慮的事情。

  • Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

    Kevin M. Ozan - Corporate Executive VP & CFO

  • The only other thing I'd add is on the international side, certainly in Europe, dine-in is a bigger percentage of our sales and is an important part of that business. And we have seen dine-in return. I mean, kiosk usage is getting back to almost where it was pre-pandemic. And so the Family business is very important in Europe. And so to Chris' point, we got to be careful about what we do because it isn't the same around the world as far as dine-in business and how customers view that side of the business.

    我要補充的唯一另一件事是在國際方面,當然在歐洲,堂食在我們的銷售額中所佔的比例更大,並且是該業務的重要組成部分。我們已經看到了堂食的回報。我的意思是,售貨亭的使用率幾乎回到了大流行前的水平。所以家族企業在歐洲非常重要。所以就克里斯而言,我們必須小心我們所做的事情,因為就就餐業務以及客戶如何看待業務的這一方面而言,世界各地的情況都不一樣。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Sara Senatore with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Sara Senatore。

  • Sara Harkavy Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Harkavy Senatore - Analyst

  • I wanted to sort of go back to the technology piece, in particular, on what I would characterize as big data. I know you're partnering with IBM because they have expertise. But as I think about loyalty, one of the things that, I think, has emerged is that's really about it's not just the data, it's what you do with it. Are there opportunities to partner, whether it's IBM or other tech companies, within loyalty or maybe more broadly that you see where outside expertise would be useful? And maybe more specifically, is this a signal as to how you're thinking about technology in-sourcing versus outsourcing? So where McDonald's should own the technology or really has specific expertise and maybe customer-facing or UI versus some of the sort of behind-the-scenes capabilities? So just anything you can signal about that. And longer term, as we think about your technology budget, does this change over time, not just with Apprente but more broadly.

    我想回到技術部分,特別是關於我將其描述為大數據的內容。我知道您與 IBM 合作是因為他們擁有專業知識。但當我想到忠誠度時,我認為已經出現的一件事是,這真的不僅僅是數據,而是你用它做什麼。是否有機會合作,無論是 IBM 還是其他科技公司,在忠誠度範圍內或更廣泛的範圍內,您認為外部專業知識在哪些方面有用?也許更具體地說,這是否表明您如何看待技術內購與外包?那麼麥當勞應該在哪裡擁有技術或真正擁有特定的專業知識,也許是面向客戶或 UI 與某些幕後功能?所以只要你能發出任何信號。從長遠來看,當我們考慮您的技術預算時,這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變,不僅是 Apprente,而是更廣泛。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Sara. And I think this is one where I'd go back to the conversation you and I had, I don't know, it's probably several quarters ago now on this topic of how do we think about technology, what's in-sourced, what's outsourced. And my thinking then is the same as my thinking now, which is there are certain times where it may make sense for us to go acquire a technology so that we can accelerate the development of that, make sure that it is bespoke to McDonald's needs. But at some point, that technology reaches a level of development where I think getting it to a partner who can then blow it out and scale it globally makes more sense.

    是的。謝謝,薩拉。我想這是我要回到你和我的談話的地方,我不知道,現在可能是幾個季度前關於我們如何看待技術的話題,什麼是內購的,什麼是外包的.我當時的想法和我現在的想法是一樣的,在某些時候,我們去獲取一項技術可能是有意義的,這樣我們就可以加速這項技術的發展,確保它是為麥當勞的需求量身定做的。但在某個時候,該技術達到了一定的發展水平,我認為將它交給一個合作夥伴,然後他們可以將其淘汰並在全球範圍內擴展它更有意義。

  • And so I think what we did with Apprente is very much consistent with that philosophy, which is we've had it for a couple of years. I've been really pleased with how the team has progressed, the development of that. We're seeing some very encouraging results in the restaurants that we have it. But there's still a lot of work that needs to go into introducing other languages, being able to do it across 14,000 restaurants with all the various menu permutations, et cetera. And that work is beyond the scale of our core competencies, if you will.

    所以我認為我們對 Apprente 所做的事情與我們已經使用了幾年的理念非常一致。我對團隊的進步和發展感到非常滿意。我們在擁有它的餐廳中看到了一些非常令人鼓舞的結果。但是仍然需要做很多工作來引入其他語言,能夠在 14,000 家餐廳中使用各種菜單排列等等。如果您願意,這項工作超出了我們的核心能力範圍。

  • And so I think in this case, IBM is a natural partner for us. I think going forward, it's going to be very much on a case-by-case basis as to when we just -- we go from day 1 with a partner versus where we might bring something in-house for a period of time. But the nice thing about being McDonald's is we're everybody's first call when it comes to a partner in the restaurant industry. And so we have a really good visibility to the various partners out there. And certainly, our -- I think our overall view is we are best on a long-term sustaining basis to use others externally partnering. But again, there may be time to time where there's benefit for us from being able to accelerate and learn to have it in for a period of time.

    所以我認為在這種情況下,IBM 是我們天然的合作夥伴。我認為,展望未來,我們將在很大程度上視具體情況而定——我們從第一天開始與合作夥伴一起進行,而不是在一段時間內我們可能會在內部帶來一些東西。但成為麥當勞的好處是,當談到餐飲業的合作夥伴時,我們是每個人的第一個電話。因此,我們對那裡的各種合作夥伴有很好的了解。當然,我們的 - 我認為我們的總體觀點是,我們最好在長期持續的基礎上使用其他外部合作夥伴。但同樣,我們有時可能會受益於能夠加速並學會在一段時間內使用它。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Our next question is from Jon Tower with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jon Tower。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Associate Analyst

    Jon Michael Tower - Associate Analyst

  • I'm just hoping to tie it into some earlier questions. I was wondering if you could get into how your customer demographics may be shifting in the U.S.? And specifically, it seems like either through product innovation, obviously, new mediums in terms of ordering or even in marketing, you're talking to a younger customer than you've been talking to for years. So I'm wondering if that's actually showing up in the data? And if frequency is changing amongst that group, which is obviously a good lead indicator for a longer-term demand for the business. But if you wouldn't mind expanding, that would be great.

    我只是希望將其與一些較早的問題聯繫起來。我想知道您是否可以了解您的客戶人口統計數據在美國可能發生的變化?具體來說,似乎無論是通過產品創新,顯然,在訂購甚至營銷方面的新媒介,你都在與一個比你多年來一直在交談的年輕客戶交談。所以我想知道這是否真的出現在數據中?如果該群體的頻率發生變化,這顯然是對業務長期需求的良好領先指標。但是,如果您不介意擴展,那就太好了。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, I think not just in our industry but across, I'd say, most consumer industries, the youth and the preferences and desires of the youth drive consumer demand, whether it's in apparel, beverages, restaurant, et cetera. And so it becomes a very natural demographic target. That 18 to 35 target is, you know from a media standpoint, probably the most coveted, the most expensive demographic to reach, because of the brand preferences that get formed at an early age and that sustain over the lifetime value of that customer.

    當然。嗯,我認為不僅在我們的行業,而且在大多數消費行業,年輕人以及年輕人的偏好和慾望推動了消費者需求,無論是在服裝、飲料、餐飲等領域。因此,它成為一個非常自然的人口目標。從媒體的角度來看,這個 18 到 35 歲的目標可能是最令人垂涎的、最昂貴的受眾群體,因為品牌偏好在很小的時候就形成了,並且會在該客戶的整個生命週期內保持價值。

  • So I think you're absolutely spot-on in observing that we have made a more demonstrable push against that demographic. And I expect that, that's going to continue. And it's one that we believe at McDonald's that we have a brand that can be part of culture. And we probably have not -- in my view, we haven't done enough to lean into the stature of our brand and culture and how we can connect to that. And so I think finding properties, finding a message that resonate with youth but also resonate more broadly in culture for us is a big upside opportunity.

    因此,我認為您絕對準確地觀察到我們已經對這一人群做出了更明顯的推動。我預計,這將繼續下去。在麥當勞,我們相信我們擁有一個可以成為文化一部分的品牌。而且我們可能還沒有——在我看來,我們還沒有做足夠的工作來了解我們的品牌和文化的地位,以及我們如何與之建立聯繫。所以我認為尋找房產,找到一種能引起年輕人共鳴的信息,同時也能在我們的文化中產生更廣泛的共鳴,這是一個很大的上昇機會。

  • And we're seeing other markets. The U.S. started some of this, but we're seeing other markets like Russia, like Spain pick up on the Famous Orders concept and getting very similar results on that. And just to me, it speaks to our -- the ability of this brand and what we can do with it.

    我們正在看到其他市場。美國開始了其中的一些,但我們看到像俄羅斯這樣的其他市場,比如西班牙,接受了著名訂單的概念,並得到了非常相似的結果。就我而言,它說明了我們 - 這個品牌的能力以及我們可以用它做什麼。

  • I think in terms of how is that changing the mix, it's still early days on this. So I think we are seeing certainly the brand sentiment improving, but we're also having to move a pretty big boat here. And so we're not yet seeing it show up in terms of a big demographic shift within the business. But frankly, nor did we. This is something that I think for us is going to sustain over several years. And it's -- again, it's about making sure that our brand is one that is as powerful in the future as it has been in the past.

    我認為就如何改變組合而言,這還處於早期階段。所以我認為我們肯定看到品牌情緒在改善,但我們也不得不在這裡移動一艘相當大的船。因此,我們還沒有看到它在企業內部人口結構的巨大轉變方面出現。但坦率地說,我們也沒有。我認為這對我們來說將持續數年。這是 - 再次,這是為了確保我們的品牌在未來與過去一樣強大。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • We have time for one last question from David Palmer with Evercore.

    我們有時間回答 David Palmer 與 Evercore 的最後一個問題。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • A quick technical question. Was there a gap between the company and franchise same-store sales growth? Particularly in the IOM, and especially on 2-year, I ask that because I remember you used to have a lot of company stores in urban centers, which I would imagine would be slower to recover. But my bigger picture question was on free cash flow. Do you anticipate the free cash flow yield moving up over time? I would imagine that over 100% would be achievable given the gap between depreciation and maintenance CapEx on the owned real estate franchise restaurants. And if you agree, when do you think you could get there? And perhaps you can give us a window into how you're thinking about growth CapEx, of course, which would be in that answer.

    一個快速的技術問題。公司與特許經營的同店銷售額增長之間是否存在差距?特別是在 IOM 中,尤其是在 2 年期間,我問這個問題是因為我記得你曾經在城市中心有很多公司商店,我想這會恢復得更慢。但我更大的問題是關於自由現金流。您是否預計自由現金流收益率會隨著時間的推移而上升?考慮到自有房地產特許經營餐廳的折舊和維護資本支出之間的差距,我想超過 100% 是可以實現的。如果你同意,你認為什麼時候可以到達那裡?也許你可以給我們一個窗口,讓我們了解你如何看待增長資本支出,當然,這就是答案。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let me start with your comp question, I guess. For the third quarter at least, both the U.S. and IOM, comps were a little bit higher in -- with franchisees than they were with company operated. That's not dramatically different than historical, I'll say. So for a while, that's generally been the trend. Some of that is driven certainly in the U.S., depending on what the location of where our company-operated stores are versus others. But in general, franchisees are running a little bit ahead of company-operated on a comp basis. And that is what we saw both in the third quarter and on a year-to-date basis, I'll say, this year.

    是的。讓我從你的比較問題開始,我猜。至少在第三季度,無論是美國還是國際移民組織,特許經營商的收入都比公司經營的要高一些。我會說,這與歷史沒有太大的不同。所以有一段時間,這通常是趨勢。其中一些肯定是在美國推動的,具體取決於我們公司經營的商店與其他商店的位置。但總的來說,特許經營商在補償的基礎上比公司經營的要領先一點。這就是我們在第三季度和年初至今看到的情況,我會說,今年。

  • Related to free cash flow, we've said we expect our free cash flow coverage to conversion to be greater than 90%, both for this year and going forward. I don't want to surmise of when or if it could get to over 100%. For now, we're going to stay with that over 90%. I think we are seeing that we have a pretty healthy flow-through that -- in our P&L that converts to free cash flow.

    與自由現金流相關,我們曾表示,我們預計今年和未來的自由現金流轉換覆蓋率將超過 90%。我不想猜測它何時或是否會超過 100%。目前,我們將保持在 90% 以上。我認為我們看到我們有一個非常健康的流動——在我們的損益表中,它轉化為自由現金流。

  • The big question right now, and again, as I mentioned a couple of times, we're still in our planning phase to look at capital requirements and what that means related to some of the opening opportunities that I mentioned earlier, et cetera. So we've got to take all those pieces into account to figure out what the free cash flow profile looks for several years. We do expect free cash flow dollars to continue to grow. And I would expect that free cash flow conversion certainly to stay at high levels.

    正如我多次提到的那樣,現在的一個大問題是,我們仍處於計劃階段,以研究資本要求以及與我之前提到的一些開放機會等相關的含義。因此,我們必須將所有這些因素都考慮在內,以確定幾年後的自由現金流狀況。我們確實預計自由現金流美元將繼續增長。我預計自由現金流轉換肯定會保持在高水平。

  • Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

    Mike Cieplak - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, Chris. Thank you, Kevin. Thanks, everyone, for joining. Have a great day.

    謝謝你,克里斯。謝謝你,凱文。謝謝大家的加入。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude McDonald's Corporation Investor Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你。這確實結束了麥當勞公司的投資者電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。