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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Metropolitan Commercial Bank third quarter 2024, earnings call.
歡迎參加首都商業銀行 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
Hosting the call today from Metropolitan Commercial Bank are Mark DeFazio, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Dougherty, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
今天主持大都會商業銀行電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Mark DeFazio;執行副總裁兼財務長 Dan Dougherty。
Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) During today's presentation reference will be made to the company's earnings release and investor presentation, copies of which are available at mcbankny.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the company's notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release and investor presentation.
今天的通話正在錄音。 (操作員說明)今天的簡報將參考公司的收益發布和投資者演示文稿,其副本可在 mcbankny.com 上取得。今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱公司關於收益發布和投資者演示中出現的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的通知。
It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mark DeFazio, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.
現在我很高興請總裁兼執行長馬克‧德法齊奧 (Mark DeFazio) 發言。你可以開始了。
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Ashley. Good morning, and thank you all for joining our third quarter MCB earnings call. MCB delivered another strong core financial performance in the third quarter. Our results are underpinned by our commercial banking franchise and our commitment to excellent customer service.
謝謝你,阿什利。早安,感謝大家參加我們第三季 MCB 財報電話會議。 MCB 第三季核心財務表現再次強勁。我們的業績得益於我們的商業銀行業務和對卓越客戶服務的承諾。
During the third quarter, we posted strong top line growth with significant NIM expansion. The outlook for monetary policy indicates that we are at the beginning of an easing cycle. While the pace and depth of that cycle is unknown, any further easing will benefit from the bank's earnings momentum.
第三季度,我們實現了強勁的營收成長,淨利差大幅擴張。貨幣政策前景顯示我們正處於寬鬆週期的開始。儘管該週期的速度和深度尚不清楚,但任何進一步的寬鬆政策都將受益於該銀行的獲利動能。
During the quarter, we thoughtfully grew the balance sheet while maintaining our price discipline on both loans and deposits. As well, we upheld our credit standards and continue to operate with a sharp focus on liquidity and interest rate risk management. Looking forward, we expect continued growth in our loan book supported by our branch light deposit gathering initiatives.
在本季度,我們深思熟慮地擴大了資產負債表,同時保持了貸款和存款的價格紀律。此外,我們維持信用標準,並繼續專注於流動性和利率風險管理。展望未來,我們預計在分行小額存款收集措施的支持下,我們的貸款帳簿將持續成長。
The bank reported earnings per share of $1.08. The reported figure includes $12.6 million or $0.78 per share in charges. Both charges included $2.6 million in pretax expenses associated primarily with the digital transformation investment and regulatory remediation. The balance of the charges was a result of the bank's posting a pretax $10 million reserve related to a pending settlement with a state attorney general.
該銀行報告每股收益為 1.08 美元。報告的數字包括 1260 萬美元或每股 0.78 美元的費用。這兩項費用均包括 260 萬美元的稅前費用,主要與數位轉型投資和監管補救相關。費用餘額是由於該銀行為與州總檢察長的懸而未決的和解而繳納了 1000 萬美元的稅前準備金。
The settlement relates to a fintech relationship that was terminated in 2020. We gave a lot of thought as to whether we should litigate this matter. We determined that the cost of litigation and the continued distraction was not worth it, even with a likely positive outcome.
和解涉及 2020 年終止的金融科技關係。我們認為,即使可能取得正面的結果,訴訟成本和持續的分心也是不值得的。
Currently, related legal fees [run] hundreds of thousands of dollar per month, and we are not even in litigation. As I said in the first quarter of 2024, this is the year we put all unfortunate and costly matters behind us.
目前,相關的法律費用每月數十萬美元,我們甚至沒有提起訴訟。正如我在 2024 年第一季所說,今年我們將所有不幸和代價高昂的事情拋在腦後。
For the third quarter and year-to-date, our adjusted ROTCE was 12% and 12.1%, respectively. We remain confident that through the course of the next 12 months to 18 months, we will once again achieve a mid-teens ROTCE and a NIM approaching 3.75%.
第三季和年初至今,我們調整後的 ROTCE 分別為 12% 和 12.1%。我們仍然有信心,在接下來的 12 個月到 18 個月內,我們將再次實現 15 左右的 ROTCE 和接近 3.75% 的淨利差。
Of course, these forecasted results are subject to market conditions that are beyond our control. Please review our investor deck for a detailed walk down of GAAP versus adjusted financial performance.
當然,這些預測結果會受到我們無法控制的市場條件的影響。請查看我們的投資人資料,詳細了解 GAAP 與調整後的財務表現。
The wind down of the GPG business is proceeding as scheduled. We remain committed to completing the exit by year end and confident in our ability to more than offset the deposit runoff with a diverse range of deposit verticals.
GPG 業務的結束正在按計劃進行。我們仍然致力於在年底前完成退出,並對我們透過各種存款垂直領域抵消存款流失的能力充滿信心。
Asset quality remains strong. We have not identified any broad-based negative trends in any loan product segment, geography or sector that is impacting our portfolio. We have no new non-performing credits, and we remain confident that the workouts that are currently in flight will be resolved successfully in 2025.
資產品質依然強勁。我們尚未發現任何貸款產品細分市場、地區或產業有任何影響我們投資組合的廣泛負面趨勢。我們沒有新的不良信貸,我們仍然相信目前正在進行的解決方案將在 2025 年成功解決。
We believe that our healthy credit metrics are a direct result of MCB's pricing discipline, conservative underwriting and portfolio diversification. Our performance is also supported by our exclusive focus on relationship based commercial banking with high quality commercial clients and sponsors in industry segments that we know well.
我們相信,我們健康的信貸指標是 MCB 定價紀律、保守核保和投資組合多元化的直接結果。我們的業績也得益於我們專注於基於關係的商業銀行業務,與我們熟悉的行業領域的高品質商業客戶和贊助商。
I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Dan Dougherty.
我現在將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Dan Dougherty。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Mark. And once again, good morning, everyone and thanks for joining the call.
謝謝你,馬克。再次,大家早安,感謝您加入通話。
To say that the third quarter was active at MCB is an understatement. The net interest margin increased by 18 basis points to 3.62%. While our loan pricing discipline and funding strategy continued to contribute to our outstanding NIM performance, this quarter's result requires additional explanation.
說 MCB 第三季表現活躍是輕描淡寫的。淨利差上升18個基點至3.62%。雖然我們的貸款定價紀律和融資策略繼續為我們出色的淨利差表現作出貢獻,但本季的結果需要額外的解釋。
Loan growth in the third quarter was a rather modest $68 million. What is not immediately evident in that growth metric is the underlying level of origination and payoff activity. We have originated loans totaling more than $450 million, while also experiencing payoffs and paydowns of approximately $400 million.
第三季的貸款成長相當溫和,為 6,800 萬美元。此成長指標中並不立即明顯的是發起和支付活動的基本水準。我們發放的貸款總額超過 4.5 億美元,同時還款和還款額約為 4 億美元。
Focusing on those payoffs and paydowns, the associated deferred fees and prepayment penalties that we recognized totaled $4.5 million. After we normalize that experience, we estimate that our NIM for the third quarter was approximately 3.5%. For the remainder of the year, we expect that our NIM will be approximately 3.45% to 3.5% again.
重點關注這些付款和付款,我們確認的相關遞延費用和預付款罰金總計 450 萬美元。在我們將該經驗標準化後,我們估計第三季的淨利差約為 3.5%。在今年剩餘時間內,我們預計淨利差將再次達到 3.45% 至 3.5% 左右。
The explanation for this expectation is driven by three main variables. The recently enacted 50 basis points reduction in the Fed funds rate, which we passed through to interest-bearing deposits at a beta of approximately 75% to 80% will be largely offset by the replacement of approximately $700 million of GPG deposits with a current cost of about 1.25%.
對這一預期的解釋是由三個主要變數所驅動的。最近頒布的聯邦基金利率下調50 個基點的政策,我們將其以約75% 至80% 的貝塔值轉嫁給有息存款,這將在很大程度上被以當前成本取代約7 億美元的GPG存款所抵銷。
We expect to use both core deposits and wholesale funding on a temporary basis to replace those GPG outflows. We have assumed a replacement rate of 4.25% in our fourth quarter forecast. It is noteworthy that while interest-bearing deposits totaled approximately $4.5 billion at September 30, the balance of deposits that were priced with Fed move was approximately $3.7 billion. The deposits not repriced include deposits swapped to fixed and deposits that already carry a very low coupon.
我們預計將臨時使用核心存款和批發資金來取代這些 GPG 流出。我們在第四季預測中假設替代率為 4.25%。值得注意的是,截至 9 月 30 日,計息存款總額約為 45 億美元,而根據聯準會措施定價的存款餘額約為 37 億美元。未重新定價的存款包括轉為定期的存款和已經具有很低息票的存款。
In addition, the repricing of approximately $1.5 billion of prime and SOFR index loans will temper the near-term NIM performance. In our updated forecast model, we have penciled in a single 25 basis points rate cut in November. Looking forward to 2025, we have modeled an additional 425 basis points rate cuts effectively 125 basis points cut per quarter.
此外,約 15 億美元優質貸款和 SOFR 指數貸款的重新定價將緩和近期淨利差表現。在我們更新的預測模型中,我們預計 11 月將降息 25 個基點。展望 2025 年,我們模擬了額外降息 425 個基點,實際上每季降息 125 個基點。
As Mark mentioned, in that scenario and reflective of numerous other assumptions, we believe that our NIM can grow to 3.75% by the end of 2025.
正如馬克所提到的,在這種情況下並反映了許多其他假設,我們相信到 2025 年底我們的淨利差可以增長到 3.75%。
Let's focus on the loan book. The weighted average coupon on our new volume originations in the third quarter was 7.97%. A significant balance of floating rate loan payoffs in the quarter resulted in an elevated payoff coupon of 8.16%.
讓我們重點關注貸款簿。第三季我們新發行的產品的加權平均票息率為 7.97%。本季浮動利率貸款還款餘額顯著,導致還款息票提高至 8.16%。
Looking forward, the weighted average coupon of fourth quarter maturities totaling about $600 million is 7.4%. And for the first half of 2025, weighted average coupon of maturities totaling about $750 million is approximately 6.85%. And just to be clear on that one, looking at our maturities, that are renewed, we typically retain about 80% to 85% of those loans.
展望未來,第四季到期總額約6億美元的加權平均票面利率為7.4%。 2025年上半年,總計約7.5億美元的到期加權平均票面利率約為6.85%。為了明確這一點,看看我們更新的期限,我們通常會保留這些貸款的大約 80% 到 85%。
Year-to-date, the loan book has grown about $275 million, and we expect the year to end with total loan growth of about $500 million. Deposits increased by approximately $100 million in the quarter. Interest-bearing deposits increased by approximately $200 million, while non-interest-bearing deposits, primarily related to GPG, declined by about $100 million. The HOA and retail deposit verticals experienced the bulk of the growth in the quarter.
年初至今,貸款總額已增加約 2.75 億美元,我們預計年底貸款總額將增加約 5 億美元。本季存款增加約 1 億美元。有息存款增加約2億美元,而主要與GPG相關的無息存款則減少約1億美元。 HOA 和零售存款垂直領域經歷了本季的大部分成長。
Year-to-date, deposits are up more than $500 million net of GPG outflows. Importantly, the outlook for growth across our deposit vertical stack, especially in the EB-5 HOA, municipal and [1031] verticals is robust. As Mark mentioned previously, asset quality remained strong with no identifiable negative trends within the portfolio.
今年迄今為止,扣除 GPG 流出後的淨存款已增加超過 5 億美元。重要的是,我們的存款垂直堆疊(尤其是 EB-5 HOA、市政和 [1031] 垂直領域)的成長前景強勁。正如馬克之前提到的,資產品質仍然強勁,投資組合中沒有明顯的負面趨勢。
The provision in the third quarter was impacted somewhat by the significant amount of origination and payoff activity in the quarter. Effectively, the duration of the loan book extended modestly as short-dated loans were replaced with new originations. In the ACL model, the added duration results in a modest uptick in the allowance rate.
第三季的準備金在一定程度上受到該季度大量發起和支付活動的影響。實際上,隨著短期貸款被新貸款取代,貸款期限略有延長。在 ACL 模型中,期限的增加導致津貼率小幅上升。
Non-interest income for the quarter was basically unchanged quarter-over-quarter at $6.2 million. GPG related revenue was approximately $3.5 million. As we wind down the GPG business, this revenue will turn to zero. Our total net interest income expectation for 2024, is $21 million to $22 million.
本季非利息收入環比基本保持不變,為 620 萬美元。 GPG 相關收入約 350 萬美元。隨著我們逐步結束 GPG 業務,該收入將變為零。我們對 2024 年淨利息收入總額的預期為 2,100 萬美元至 2,200 萬美元。
Non-interest expenses totaled $51.3 million in the third quarter. As Mark mentioned, this quarter was impacted by a $10 million reserve booked to resolve an investigation within a state attorney general. Expenses related to the digital transformation investment were $1.9 million, and an additional $700,000 was related to regulatory remediation work and costs associated with the GPG wind down.
第三季非利息支出總計 5,130 萬美元。正如馬克所提到的,本季度受到了為解決州總檢察長內部調查而預訂的 1000 萬美元儲備金的影響。與數位轉型投資相關的費用為 190 萬美元,另外 70 萬美元與監管補救工作以及與 GPG 關閉相關的成本相關。
For the fourth quarter, I expect non-interest expenses will decline about 1% to 3% quarter-over-quarter as reduction in professional fees will be largely offset by elevated comp and benefits as the build-out of our risk management and compliance teams has happened more quickly and at a greater cost than expected. Therefore, the revised full year estimate is approximately $164 million to $166 million, net of the settlement reserve.
對於第四季度,我預計非利息支出將環比下降約 1% 至 3%,因為專業費用的減少將在很大程度上被風險管理和合規團隊建設帶來的薪酬和福利的提高所抵消發生的速度比預期更快,成本也更高。因此,扣除結算準備金後,修訂後的全年預估約為 1.64 億至 1.66 億美元。
The effective tax rate for the quarter was approximately 30%, going forward, we expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 31% to 32%, excluding discrete items. A note on early 2025, guidance, we expect loan growth to continue in the range of 10% to 12%. We expect non-interest income growth of 6% to 8%, excluding GPG's contribution, of course.
本季的有效稅率約為 30%,展望未來,我們預計有效稅率將在 31% 至 32% 範圍內,不包括離散項目。關於 2025 年初的指導意見,我們預計貸款成長將繼續在 10% 至 12% 的範圍內。我們預期非利息收入成長 6% 至 8%,當然不包括 GPG 的貢獻。
Operating expenses are expected to be flat. Now importantly, my previous guidance for a clean OpEx run rate in the low $150 still stands. The timing of the achievement of that goal is expected to be toward the end of '25 into 2026.
營運支出預計將持平。現在重要的是,我之前關於 150 美元低營運成本運行率的指導仍然有效。實現該目標的時間預計為 25 年底至 2026 年。
Finally, please refer to the updated investor deck, which can be accessed from our website for a walk down from reported earnings to non-GAAP adjusted earnings. Year-to-date, the accumulated one-time charges related to their settlement reserve, the digital project, regulatory remuneration and BaaS exit totaled approximately $23 million or about $16 million after tax.
最後,請參閱更新後的投資者資料庫,您可以從我們的網站訪問該資料庫,以了解從報告收益到非 GAAP 調整後收益的詳細資訊。今年迄今為止,與結算準備金、數位項目、監管薪酬和 BaaS 退出相關的累計一次性費用總計約 2,300 萬美元,即稅後約 1,600 萬美元。
I will now turn the call back over to the operator. Thank you.
我現在將把電話轉回給接線生。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Mark Fitzgibbon, Piper Sandler.
(操作說明)Mark Fitzgibbon、Piper Sandler。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Hey, guys. Good morning.
嘿,夥計們。早安.
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, Mark.
早上好,馬克。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
First question I have was sort of around the regulatory reserve. I guess, I was under the impression that stuff was behind at this point. And so the $10 million reserve and the additional regulatory remediation costs kind of surprised me.
我的第一個問題是關於監管儲備的。我想,此時我的印像是事情已經落後了。因此,1000 萬美元的準備金和額外的監管補救成本讓我有點驚訝。
And I guess, I could, I'm curious what prompted that? Was there a discussion with the regulators that you felt like you needed to put some additional reserves up or was there some sort of action that they've required from the company?
我想,我可以,我很好奇是什麼促使了這一點?您是否與監管機構進行討論,認為您需要增加一些額外的準備金,或者他們是否要求公司採取某種行動?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, it really wasn't the bank regulators in this instance. This is linked to the exact same matter where we had the settlement with our banking regulators that go back to March of 2020. So we have been continuing to update our disclosures in our Qs and Ks and indicated that there is the likelihood of something still to be out there.
嗯,在這個例子中,確實不是銀行監理機構。這與我們自 2020 年 3 月起與銀行監管機構達成和解的完全相同的問題有關。
It just took this amount of time to finally hopefully settle with a state attorney general and it turns out that the state that we're referencing happens to be the exact same state where this particular client operated out of them. So it's not a new matter, Mark. This has been going on since March of 2020. Very slow walk in getting it behind us, and now we are very confident it is.
只是花了這麼長的時間才最終與州檢察長達成和解,結果證明我們所引用的州恰好是這個特定客戶在其中運作的州。所以這不是什麼新鮮事,馬克。這種情況自 2020 年 3 月以來一直在發生。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
So you don't expect any additional regulatory costs beyond this quarter or any additional costs related to it is, I should say?
所以我應該說,您預計本季之後不會有任何額外的監管成本或與之相關的任何額外成本?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I do not.
我不知道。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Okay. Great. Second question is, I wondered if you have a goal in mind for the CRE to risk based capital ratio, I think it was 353% in the most recent quarter. And it feels like a lot of banks are walking down to the 300% regulatory guidance. Are you of that mindset as well or are you comfortable staying up north of that?
好的。偉大的。第二個問題是,我想知道您是否對 CRE 與創投比率有目標,我認為最近一個季度的目標是 353%。感覺很多銀行都在朝 300% 的監管準則邁進。您是否也有這種心態,或者您願意保持這種心態?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, our internal target is a bit higher than that, and those numbers do get reviewed. Those targets, I should say, do get reviewed by our regulators. And to-date, they've been very comfortable, I guess, with the historical performance about the portfolio and a portfolio profile.
嗯,我們的內部目標比這個高一點,而這些數字確實得到了審查。我應該說,這些目標確實受到了我們的監管機構的審查。我想,到目前為止,他們對投資組合的歷史表現和投資組合概況感到非常滿意。
But between our retained earnings, we tend to likely stay in that range of that 350% even with the kind of growth projection. So we don't ever anticipate getting to our internal targets. But I would imagine we would probably run in place with a slight increase over time, but likely more run in place.
但在我們的留存收益中,即使有這樣的成長預測,我們也可能會保持在 350% 的範圍內。因此,我們從來沒有預期會達到我們的內在目標。但我想我們可能會原地運行,隨著時間的推移略有增加,但可能會更多地原地運行。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
May I add interject there, Mark, as well. Yeah. So it's not really a target. It's a policy limit, right? So we have policy limit that's north of that 350%. We have no plan to approach the policy limit. But by the same token, we've had no discussions with our regulators showing undue concern about us running slightly north of the 300%.
我也可以插嗎,馬克。是的。所以它並不是一個真正的目標。這是政策限制吧?所以我們的政策限制超出了 350%。我們沒有計劃接近政策限制。但基於同樣的原因,我們在與監管機構的討論中並未表現出對我們略高於 300% 的過度擔憂。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then, Dan, just a couple of modeling questions. Just to clarify your guidance. You expect the margin to be down sort of, call it, 12 basis points to 15 basis points in the fourth quarter. The last couple of quarters, you've -- your guidance has been a little low on where the margin is likely to fall out. What gives you confidence that the margin will be down that much in the fourth quarter?
好的。偉大的。然後,丹,有幾個建模問題。只是為了澄清您的指導。您預計第四季利潤率將下降 12 至 15 個基點。在過去的幾個季度中,您對利潤率可能下降的指導有點低。是什麼讓您相信第四季的利潤率會下降這麼多?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So remember that this reported NIM included an outsized experience related to deferred fee recognition as well as prepayment penalties. So my -- I think my forecast is spot on. And I think we're going to end the year right around 350, of course, there is a headwind with the outflow of the GPG deposits, which have all kind of accumulated into the fourth quarter.
是的。因此請記住,這份報告的 NIM 包括與延期費用確認以及預付款罰款相關的大量經驗。所以我的——我認為我的預測是準確的。我認為我們將在 350 左右結束今年,當然,GPG 存款的流出存在逆風,這些存款都已累積到第四季度。
But given my assumption set, I think I'm very confident that we'll get back -- will stay with the normalized 3.5%. Yeah, there's a little bit of -- I need a little bit of wiggle room, but at the end of the day. So I kind of 345, 350, but that's just -- that reflects a stable NIM. 362 was an outlier because of those outsized penalties and fees.
但考慮到我設定的假設,我認為我非常有信心我們會恢復正常的 3.5%。是的,有一點——我需要一點迴旋餘地,但最終還是這樣。所以我認為是 345、350,但這只是反映了穩定的淨利差。由於巨額罰款和費用,362 是一個異常值。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
And then do we think that all of the GPG revenues will be gone in the first quarter, there'll just be a little bit of residual?
那麼我們是否認為第一季所有的 GPG 收入都會消失,只有一點點剩餘?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
In the fourth quarter, there will be
第四季將會有
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Got in the fourth quarter -- in the -- by, say, the first quarter of next year, do we think all the GPG revenues will be pretty much out.
從第四季到明年第一季度,我們認為所有 GPG 收入將基本消失。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, absolutely.
是的,絕對是。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Absolutely.
絕對地。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
And then last question, I just kind of missed your comment on deposit flows for the fourth quarter.
最後一個問題,我有點想念您對第四季度存款流量的評論。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So our -- we buy weekly deposit meetings are suggestive of a very productive results during the fourth quarter. The EB-5 team has got a really outstanding pipeline, expecting some pick up there. We continue to make progress under 1031 title Escrow technology implementations.
因此,我們每週舉行的存款會議顯示第四季將取得非常有成效的結果。 EB-5 團隊擁有非常出色的管道,預計會有一些進展。我們在 1031 標題託管技術實施下持續取得進展。
And so that should -- that's probably a '25 thing more so. But further to our deposit verticals, HOAs and [Munis], which have been outstanding contributors year-to-date are expected to further contribute in the fourth quarter.
所以這應該是——這可能是 25 世紀的事。但進一步到我們的存款垂直領域,今年迄今一直是傑出貢獻者的 HOA 和 [Munis] 預計將在第四季度進一步做出貢獻。
So my expectation for replacing those GPG deposits is, I'm kind of 50-50. We'll probably need to use $300 million to $400 million of wholesale, but I think I can put the rest of it back on in core deposits. And I think 4.25% is a very conservative estimation of what that cost of money will be.
所以我對替換這些 GPG 存款的期望是,我的比例是 50-50。我們可能需要使用 3 億至 4 億美元的批發資金,但我認為我可以將其餘部分重新存入核心存款。我認為 4.25% 是對資金成本的非常保守的估計。
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Mark Fitzgibbon - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Welcome
歡迎
Operator
Operator
Chris O'Connell, KBW.
克里斯·奧康奈爾,KBW。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Good morning.
早安.
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, Chris.
早上好,克里斯。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hey, Chris.
嘿,克里斯。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Hi. Did I hear right on the fourth quarter or I guess the full year loan growth is $500 million. So that implies, like, just shy like $250 million of net loan growth in the fourth quarter?
你好。我第四季沒聽錯嗎?那麼這是否意味著第四季的淨貸款成長僅略低於 2.5 億美元?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Correct. $200 million to $250 million.
正確的。 2億至2.5億美元。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Got it. And just maybe some color as to what type of loans those are and is it just a backup in the pipeline from the past couple of quarters? And then just what type of origination yields you guys are looking at?
知道了。也許只是一些關於這些貸款類型的顏色,以及它是否只是過去幾季的備用貸款?那麼你們正在尋找什麼類型的起源產量呢?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Nothing different than historical. We tend to stick to the industries that we're very comfortable with. You'll probably see the majority of the closings will be in C&I and in health care and with a good contribution of commercial real estate as well, but the majority will likely be in C&I and health care.
與歷史沒有什麼不同。我們傾向於堅持我們非常喜歡的行業。您可能會看到大部分關閉將集中在工商業和醫療保健領域,商業房地產也做出了良好貢獻,但大多數可能會在工商業和醫療保健領域。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
And any color on just the origination yields that you guys expect?
你們期望的原始產量上有任何顏色嗎?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I don't expect a material deviation from what you saw in the third quarter. So certainly, between 7.5% and 8%.
我預計第三季的情況不會有重大偏差。所以肯定是 7.5% 到 8% 之間。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Got it. Thanks. And then on just the one-time costs going forward, not on the digital initiative, but the regulatory. And I get that the $10 million kind of puts an end any of the settlement charges, is there still going to be a smaller amount of kind of the regulatory remediation that we saw in the first half of the year for the next couple of quarters or do you expect that to fall off as well?
知道了。謝謝。然後是未來的一次性成本,不是數位計劃,而是監管。我知道 1000 萬美元就可以結束任何和解費用,在接下來的幾個季度中,我們在今年上半年看到的監管補救措施是否仍然會較少,或者你預計它也會掉下來嗎?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I would think that you're going to see a continued drop to be conservative through the second quarter that would be a bit conservative. But hopefully, you'll see a consistent drop in the first quarter and then a complete end to any outside expense clearly by June.
是的。我認為你會看到第二季保守的情況會持續下降,這會有點保守。但希望您會看到第一季持續下降,然後在六月明確完全結束任何外部支出。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then on the expense guidance, kind of the overall commentary going up from here, the early 2025, look, I think you said flat. Can you just confirm what that flat number is to?
好的。偉大的。然後關於費用指導,總體評論從這裡開始,2025 年初,看,我認為你說持平。能確認一下那個固定號碼是什麼嗎?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Flat to full year '24.
24 年全年持平。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Is it $1.64 to $1.66?
是 1.64 美元到 1.66 美元嗎?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
And is that inclusive of the digital transformation that's coming in the one-time costs for the first half of '25?
這是否包括 25 年上半年一次性成本中的數位轉型?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It is indeed. Yes. So that's when I finish that project, when I -- that's a big driver for the movement towards my clean expect -- clean run rate expectation of the low 150s. I'm going to draw $6 million to $8 million off the top there from those transformation costs.
確實如此。是的。所以就在我完成該專案的時候,當我——這是朝著我的清潔預期邁進的一個重要推動力——清潔運行率預期降低到 150 秒。我將從這些轉型成本中提取 600 萬至 800 萬美元。
By then, the professional fees and all the associated expenses related to reg remediation will have dropped out as well. So again, towards the end of '25, certainly into '26, we should get a -- finally a real clean look at reported OpEx that we think we can produce some really strong operating leverage off of.
到那時,與註冊修復相關的專業費用和所有相關費用也將被取消。因此,在 25 年底,當然在 26 年底,我們應該對報告的營運支出進行一次真正清晰的審視,我們認為我們可以從中產生一些真正強大的營運槓桿。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Okay. Got it. So if you guys are growing the balance sheet double-digit a normalized kind of expense growth rate for you guys is, call it, like high-single digit to low double-digit. Is that how we kind of can think about the very loose trajectory off kind of the low 150s level as we exit 25-ish?
好的。知道了。因此,如果你們的資產負債表成長兩位數,那麼你們的標準化支出成長率就是,就像高個位數到低兩位數一樣。當我們退出 25 左右時,我們是否可以這樣思考 150 左右水平的非常寬鬆的軌跡?
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think that's fair. High-single digits, probably makes sense.
我認為這是公平的。高個位數,可能是有道理的。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Okay. Great. Very helpful.
好的。偉大的。非常有幫助。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
And then, you did mention I think in the opening comments, working out a few of the NPLs or NPAs and some kind of positive movement on those into early '25. Just any color around kind of what certain of those credits that you guys have progressed on?
然後,你確實在開場評論中提到,解決了一些 NPL 或 NPA 問題,並在 25 年初對這些問題採取了某種積極的行動。只是關於你們所取得的某些功績的任何顏色嗎?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think, I said throughout 2025, so the Kansas City matter will come to a resolution in the first quarter, that's what we're told by our attorneys as far as the pending foreclosure. Some of the other matters are in flight and clients are working really hard to liquidate some assets and pay us off in full. So '25 is -- I'm feeling really good about '25, you will see movement in the first half as sure.
我認為,我說過整個 2025 年,堪薩斯城的問題將在第一季度得到解決,這就是我們的律師告訴我們的,就懸而未決的取消抵押品贖回權而言。其他一些事項正在處理中,客戶正在非常努力地清除一些資產並全額償還我們的債務。所以,25 年——我對 25 年感覺非常好,你肯定會看到上半場的變化。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Great. And you guys feel like you're well reserved and everything like this, you don't anticipate any additional charges with those resolutions?
偉大的。你們覺得自己很保守,像這樣的事情,你們預計這些決議不會產生任何額外費用嗎?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Not at the moment. The other point that I'd like to make, I think I made it, but just keep in mind, since these two or three items showed up a year or 1.5 years ago, more than 1.5 years ago, we haven't had any other deterioration. So I think that's important to recognize as well.
目前還沒有。我想說的另一點,我想我做到了,但請記住,自從這兩三個項目出現在一年或 1.5 年前,超過 1.5 年前,我們還沒有任何其他惡化。所以我認為認識到這一點也很重要。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Yeah, absolutely. Great. And last one, did I catch the number right? You guys had -- you guys moved rates, I think you said on $3.7 billion of the interest-bearing balances and was that 75% to 80% beta has gotten reference to the overall deposit base or just to that $3.7 billion?
是的,絕對是。偉大的。最後一個,我聽對了嗎?你們調整了利率,我想你們說的是 37 億美元的計息餘額,75% 到 80% 的貝塔值是參考了整體存款基礎還是僅僅參考了那 37 億美元?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, that's the overall deposit base.
不,這是整體存款基礎。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Okay. Great. And is that $3.7 billion, kind of roughly the amount that you guys expect to move regularly alongside rate cuts moving forward?
好的。偉大的。這 37 億美元是否大致相當於你們預期隨著未來降息而定期變動的金額?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's the first. I'll add a little nuance there that it's important that -- to realize that about $2 billion of our index deposits don't reprice contemporaneous with the rate cut, they priced the first business day following month. So slight differential there, but just something to keep in mind.
這是第一個。我要補充一點細微差別,重要的是要意識到我們約 20 億美元的指數存款不會與降息同時重新定價,他們在下個月的第一個工作日定價。差別很小,但需要記住一點。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
And what's the total amount of index deposits?
指數存款總額是多少?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's around $2 billion.
大約是20億美元。
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Christopher O'Connell - Analyst
Okay. Great. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Dan. Appreciate that.
好的。偉大的。謝謝,馬克。謝謝,丹。很欣賞這一點。
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You re welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Feddie Strickland, Hovde Group.
費迪·斯特里克蘭,霍夫德集團。
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask, I think last quarter, you mentioned you made arrangements with the GPG client, there were $2 million or so in regulatory remediation costs. Was that rolled into the reserve this quarter or is that still something we could expect to see come down the pipeline?
嘿,早安。我只是想問,我想上個季度,您提到您與 GPG 客戶做出了安排,監管補救成本約為 200 萬美元。這是本季納入儲備的還是我們仍然可以期待看到的東西?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, it wasn't reserved into the -- it wasn't rolled into the reserve at all. It was a recapture of some expenses we had, and we got reimbursed. And the agreement we have with this particular client who's leaving in early November is they're picking up 75% of all additional charges between now and their exit as well. So that's another reason why we'll have some significant decrease in some of these outside GPG exit-related costs as we materially passed these costs on to this particular client.
不,它沒有被保留到——它根本沒有被納入儲備。這是我們收回的一些費用,我們得到了報銷。我們與這位 11 月初離開的客戶達成的協議是,他們將承擔從現在到離開期間所有額外費用的 75%。因此,這就是為什麼我們將大幅減少一些與 GPG 退出相關的外部成本的另一個原因,因為我們將這些成本實質上轉嫁給了這個特定的客戶。
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just wanted to shift gears for a second. To the health care portfolio, I know there's some Florida exposure there. Did you have any customers who were adversely affected by some of the hurricanes that came through there or is it kind of the normal course of business, they know how to handle those?
知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是想換檔位。對於醫療保健投資組合,我知道佛羅裡達州有一些風險敞口。您是否有任何客戶受到那裡發生的一些颶風的不利影響,或者這是正常的業務過程,他們知道如何處理這些問題?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. We actually -- it's a broader question about all of our real estate exposure throughout the state of Florida, especially on the West Coast. So we surveyed immediately all of our clients and all of our collateral position for both hurricanes, and we were very fortunate, and I should say our clients were very fortunate as well, very minor damage that's not consistent with this type of weather pattern in that state annually. So we're very pleased. Everybody is very pleased that we sort of -- they sort of dodged the bullet.
不。因此,我們立即調查了所有客戶以及我們對兩次颶風的所有附帶情況,我們非常幸運,我應該說我們的客戶也非常幸運,損失非常小,與這種類型的天氣模式不符每年聲明一次。所以我們非常高興。每個人都非常高興我們有點——他們躲過了子彈。
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
That's great to hear. Final question for me. Just want to ask whether there was any change to the overall digital transformation budget, and is there any particular service that's going to come online? I know you had that look, I think, it's on Page 19 that can drive particularly higher expenses in any particular quarter of '25, just as we think about kind of how to model the remainder of that budget?
很高興聽到這個消息。對我來說最後一個問題。只是想問一下總體數位轉型預算是否有任何變化,是否有任何特定的服務將上線?我知道你有這樣的想法,我認為第 19 頁可能會在 25 年的任何特定季度推動特別更高的支出,就像我們考慮如何對該預算的其餘部分進行建模一樣?
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So at the moment, I don't have any insight as to increasing the budget for the integration of any of these software service providers. Anything that we roll out, and there's been some press release on some of the software that we've rolled out already will not and has not increased our operating cost.
是的。因此,目前我對增加整合這些軟體服務提供者的預算沒有任何見解。我們推出的任何產品,以及我們已經推出的某些軟體的新聞稿,都不會也不會增加我們的營運成本。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So put another way, our operating cost post completion of the digital transformation will be quite aligned with our previous run rate for IT expense.
換句話說,數位轉型完成後我們的營運成本將與我們先前的 IT 費用運行率非常一致。
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Feddie Strickland - Analyst
Understood. That s helpful. Thanks for taking my question.
明白了。這很有幫助。感謝您提出我的問題。
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Daniel Dougherty - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
You re welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And this concludes the allotted time for questions. I would like to turn the call over to Mark DeFazio for any additional or closing remarks.
謝謝。分配的提問時間到此結束。我想將電話轉給馬克·德法齊奧(Mark DeFazio),詢問任何補充或結束語。
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Defazio - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would just like to thank everybody for taking the time out this morning to listen in. And we're very excited about 2025, and beyond. So again, Dan and I make ourselves available to all investors and analysts, feel free to reach out to us if you have any specific questions or follow-ups. Thank you very much.
我只想感謝大家今天早上抽出時間來聆聽。丹和我再次向所有投資者和分析師開放,如果您有任何具體問題或後續事宜,請隨時與我們聯繫。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference call and webcast. A webcast archive of this call can be found at www.mcbankny.com. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。本次電話會議的網路廣播存檔可在 www.mcbankny.com 上找到。請此時斷開線路,祝您有美好的一天。