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Operator
Operator
Greetings, welcome to Mobileye's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a remainder, this conference is being recorded.
各位好,歡迎參加 Mobileye 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Dan Galves. Mr. Galves, you may begin.
現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人 Dan Galves。Galves 先生,您可以開始了。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Sherry. Hello everyone, and welcome to Mobileye's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call for the period ending June 27, 2026. Please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the business environment as we currently see it, including regarding our future financial outlook. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the accompanying press release, which includes additional information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.
謝謝你,Sherry。各位好,歡迎參加 Mobileye 2026 年第二季財報電話會議,本季截至 2026 年 6 月 27 日。請注意,今天的討論包含以前瞻性陳述為主、基於我們目前所見的商業環境之觀點,包括對未來財務展望的看法。此類陳述涉及風險與不確定性。請參閱隨附的新聞稿,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前述陳述存在重大差異之特定因素的更多資訊。
Additionally, on this call, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP figures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in our posted earnings release. Joining us on the call today are Professor Amnon Shashua, Mobileye's CEO and President; Moran Shemesh, Mobileye's CFO; and Nimrod Nehushtan, Mobileye's EVP of Business Development and Strategy.
此外,在本次電話會議中,我們將同時引用 GAAP 與非 GAAP 數據。GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表已載於我們發布的財報新聞稿中。今天與會者包括 Mobileye 執行長兼總裁 Amnon Shashua 教授;Mobileye 財務長 Moran Shemesh;以及 Mobileye 業務發展與策略執行副總裁 Nimrod Nehushtan。
Thanks, and now I'll turn the call over to Amnon.
謝謝,接下來我把電話交給 Amnon。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you for joining, everyone. Mobileye's core business continues to perform very well in 2026, providing a strong foundation as we build towards upcoming advanced product launches. In the second quarter, EyeQ volume was up 3%, outperforming the volume of our top 10 customers by more than 8 percentage-points. While ASP came in modestly below our expectations due to a higher contribution from China OEM exports volume. Revenue was essentially flat and still outperformed production at our top customers by roughly 5 percentage-points.
感謝各位加入。Mobileye 的核心業務在 2026 年持續表現非常出色,為我們邁向即將推出的先進產品奠定了堅實基礎。第二季 EyeQ 出貨量成長 3%,較我們前十大客戶的出貨量表現高出逾 8 個百分點。由於中國 OEM 出口量貢獻較高,ASP 略低於我們的預期。營收基本持平,但仍較我們主要客戶的產量表現高出約 5 個百分點。
Profitability benefited from recognition of the new R&D credit law, which came into effect shortly after the end of Q1 and is retroactive at the beginning of 2026. Adjusted operating profit was up 46% year-over-year, and adjusted operating margin expanded by 10 points to 31%. Moran will get into detail on the credit law itself, but we view the benefits as sustainable. This policy was primarily designed to offset a higher Israeli corporate tax rate and to act as a retention tool to encourage continued R&D activity in Israel.
獲利能力受惠於新研發抵減法案的認列;該法案在第一季結束後不久生效,並自 2026 年年初起追溯適用。調整後營業利益年增 46%,調整後營業利益率擴張 10 個百分點至 31%。Moran 將進一步說明該抵減法案本身的細節,但我們認為其效益具可持續性。此政策主要旨在抵銷以色列較高的公司稅率,並作為留才工具,以鼓勵研發活動持續在以色列進行。
Considering the R&D credit booked in Q2, also included in the Q1 impact, we think that the first half provides a more representative view of Mobileye's underlying performance. On that basis, results were very strong, with first-half revenue up 13% year-over-year compared to our core customers' production volume decline of 3%. First-half adjusted operating margin was 23%, up 6 points on a year-over-year basis. Cash flow remains robust with $210 million of operating cash flow generated in the first half of the year.
考量第二季入帳的研發抵減(亦包含在第一季的影響中),我們認為上半年更能代表 Mobileye 的基本面表現。以此為基礎,業績非常強勁:上半年營收年增 13%,而我們核心客戶的產量年減 3%。上半年調整後營業利益率為 23%,年增 6 個百分點。現金流仍然強勁,上半年營運現金流入達 2.10 億美元。
Overall, our current business is a robust, extremely profitable foundation. We see multiple secular drivers, including growth opportunities in India, China OEM export into emerging markets and new customers, all of which are supporting continued volume growth above the broader market which surround ADAS as expected to drive ASP growth starting in 2028.
整體而言,我們目前的業務是一個穩健且極高獲利的基礎。我們看到多項長期結構性驅動因素,包括印度的成長機會、中國 OEM 對新興市場的出口以及新客戶等,皆支撐我們的出貨量增速持續高於整體市場;而預期自 2028 年起,環視 ADAS 將帶動 ASP 成長。
Moreover, we continue to secure new design wins across virtually all of the high-volume mass-market applications our core customers need. When we move beyond high-volume ADAS into more advanced technology, such as point-to-point, eyes-on/hands-off and Level 3 eyes-off. The pace of additional traction will depend in part on demonstrating real-world performance through upcoming supervision chauffeur and drive launches.
此外,我們持續在幾乎所有核心客戶所需的高出貨量大眾市場應用中取得新的設計導入(design wins)。當我們從高出貨量 ADAS 進一步邁向更先進技術,例如點到點(point-to-point)、眼睛注視/手可離(eyes-on/hands-off)以及 L3 眼睛可離(eyes-off)。後續動能的加速,部分將取決於透過即將推出的 supervision chauffeur 與 drive 產品發表,展現真實道路上的實際表現。
We have been consistent on this point the last few quarters. Until OEM see a vertically integrated supplier system performing at scale on the road, some are choosing to experiment with multi-supplier architectures that they integrate themselves, typically on lower volume programs where the commercial and operational risk is more contained. The recent Stellantis Awards are a good example of this dynamic.
過去幾季我們在這一點上一直保持一致。在 OEM 尚未看到垂直整合的供應商系統能在道路上以規模化方式運作之前,有些 OEM 選擇嘗試由多家供應商組成、並由其自行整合的架構;通常是在較低出貨量的專案上進行,因其商業與營運風險較可控。近期的 Stellantis Awards 就是這種動態的良好例子。
Mobileye won the high-volume 2027 program with cloud-enhanced ADAS, supporting highway hands-free driving and a cost-efficient package for the OEM, while a lower volume, later timing and higher-risk program was awarded to other suppliers. We view that outcome is consistent with how OEMs are allocating risk today. Mobileye continues to win where scale, reliability and production readiness matters most. While some OEMs continue to test alternative architectures on platforms that carry less risk to their business.
Mobileye 以雲端增強 ADAS 贏得 2027 年高出貨量專案,支援高速公路免手駕駛,並為 OEM 提供具成本效率的套件;而另一個出貨量較低、時程較晚且風險較高的專案則授予其他供應商。我們認為該結果符合 OEM 目前的風險配置方式。在規模、可靠性與量產就緒度最為關鍵之處,Mobileye 持續勝出。同時,部分 OEM 仍在對其業務風險較低的平台上測試替代性架構。
On cloud-enhanced ADAS specifically, this product provides an attractive economic bridge between base ADAS applications and more advanced autonomy, with gross profit per unit roughly equivalent to surround ADAS and well more than double than of a base ADAS program. On the robotaxi front, we remain encouraged by the progress with Volkswagen Group company MOIA. Both in terms of the performance testing of our self-driving system as well as the build-out of MOIA's infrastructure.
就雲端增強 ADAS 而言,該產品在基礎 ADAS 應用與更高階自動化之間提供了具吸引力的經濟性橋接;其單位毛利大致與環視 ADAS 相當,且遠高於基礎 ADAS 專案,超過其兩倍。在 robotaxi 方面,我們對與 Volkswagen 集團旗下 MOIA 的進展仍感到鼓舞。無論是我們自動駕駛系統的性能測試,或是 MOIA 基礎設施的建置進度皆是如此。
The program achieved a very recent milestone when MOIA began public rider testing with safety drivers in Hamburg, Germany and vehicles equipped with our self-driving system. We are looking forward to additional milestones throughout '26 and '27. As the confidence in our technology has grown, it has led to our decision to establish a fully vertically integrated robotaxi offering where Mobileye will control all aspects of the value chain. This initiative, which will proceed in parallel and leverage the same self-driving system technology we have been developing for the last several years, targets launch in 2027 in at least one US city. We believe this is a natural evolution to expand our potential share of this very large TAM.
該專案近期達成一項里程碑:MOIA 已在德國漢堡開始由安全駕駛員陪同的公開乘客測試,車輛搭載我們的自動駕駛系統。我們期待在 2026 與 2027 年期間達成更多里程碑。隨著我們對技術的信心提升,我們決定建立一個完全垂直整合的 robotaxi 方案,由 Mobileye 掌控價值鏈的各個環節。此計畫將與現有工作並行推進,並沿用我們過去數年所開發的同一套自動駕駛系統技術,目標是在 2027 年於至少一座美國城市推出。我們相信這是擴大我們在這個極大 TAM 中潛在份額的自然演進。
In addition to technology confidence, data from early-stage commercial services has clarified many question marks. Consumer demand has been strong, revenue per vehicle is robust and would be profitable under our cost structure, and the regulatory environment is supportive. We have also noted slower-than-expected scaling by the perceived leaders in the space, which we see as providing ample time for us to build our ecosystem. This combination of factors made this a very clear decision for us.
除了技術信心之外,早期商業服務的數據也釐清了許多疑問。消費者需求強勁、單車營收表現穩健,且在我們的成本結構下可實現獲利,同時監管環境也具支持性。我們也注意到市場上被視為領先者的業者擴張速度低於預期;我們認為這為我們建立生態系統提供了充足時間。上述因素的組合,使這對我們而言成為一個非常明確的決策。
We have already established a cross-functional team to build this business and are deeply engaged with subconstructors for the vehicle platform, self-driving system installation and vehicle uplift, and local logistics and infrastructure support. Our Moovit division is fully engaged and is a high-value asset for fleet supply demand optimization, trip planning, and rider engagement.
我們已成立跨職能團隊來打造此業務,並與分包商深度合作,涵蓋車輛平台、自動駕駛系統安裝與車輛改裝升級,以及在地物流與基礎設施支援。我們的 Moovit 事業部全面投入,並且是高價值資產,可用於車隊供需最佳化、行程規劃與乘客互動。
We are forming joint Moovit Mobileye teams to leverage Moovit's fast proof-of-concept work with multiple mobility partners and accelerate development. Moovit will restructure its resources, moving away and reducing headcount from the B2B side of its business, in order to laser focus on this new strategy. Finally, we will add the Mobileye logo to Moovit's app in the US across hundreds of thousands of consumer users to enhance consumer recognition of the Mobileye brand.
我們正在組建 Moovit 與 Mobileye 的聯合團隊,運用 Moovit 與多家移動出行合作夥伴快速完成概念驗證(proof-of-concept)的能力,以加速開發。Moovit 將重整資源,從其業務的 B2B 端撤出並縮減人力編制,以便高度聚焦於這項新策略。最後,我們將在美國的 Moovit App 中加入 Mobileye 標誌,覆蓋數十萬名消費者用戶,以提升消費者對 Mobileye 品牌的辨識度。
We see value in building the capability to participate across the entire robotaxi value chain, but the most important action is responsibility for the vehicle as it comes out of the up let facility as a fully validated driverless car. This opens up many go-to-market options for us, including operating the vehicles within our own service, deploying them on a third-party platform or selling the vehicles to robotaxi service operators with recurring revenues as the vehicle generates rider fares. We also expect operating outside of an OEM to lead to more rapid validation and software update cycle.
我們認為建立參與整個 robotaxi 價值鏈的能力具有價值,但最重要的行動是:當車輛從改裝升級(upfit)設施出廠時,作為一輛已完成全面驗證的無人駕駛車,我們需對其負責。這將為我們開啟多種市場進入(go-to-market)選項,包括以自有服務營運車隊、在第三方平台上部署,或將車輛出售給 robotaxi 服務營運商,並在車輛產生乘客車資時取得經常性收入。我們也預期,脫離 OEM 體系運作將帶來更快速的驗證與軟體更新迭代週期。
Before turning it over to Moran, I'll say a few words on my decision to step down as CEO once we appoint a successor. Mobileye is my brainchild. It started as an idea 27 years ago that machine learning can transform a monocular camera empowered by an appropriate system-on-chip into a system that can warn and mitigate imminent accidents at scale. Since then, we have delivered more than 250 million units of product, generated more than $13 billion of revenue, created thousands of jobs, and saved scores of lives by preventing and mitigating accidents.
在把電話交給 Moran 之前,我想先就我在任命繼任者後卸任執行長(CEO)的決定說幾句。Mobileye 是我一手孕育的心血結晶。它始於 27 年前的一個想法:機器學習可以改造單目攝影機,並在適當的系統單晶片(SoC)加持下,成為一套能在大規模情境中警示並減輕迫在眉睫事故的系統。自那時起,我們已交付超過 2.5 億套產品,創造超過 130 億美元營收,創造數千個工作機會,並透過預防與減輕事故拯救了許多生命。
We helped create an industry and changed how the world thinks about road safety. Eventually, fully autonomous driving became the overarching goal. Today, with supervision, chauffeur, and drive moving towards commercialization, Mobileye entering a new phase. Our business that runs through automakers remains central to Mobileye. At the same time, robotaxi and humanoid robotics are in major long-term opportunities built on the same physical AI foundation and require new operational models and new go-to-market strategies.
我們協助創造了一個產業,並改變了世界對道路安全的看法。最終,完全自動駕駛成為總體目標。今天,隨著 supervision、chauffeur 與 drive 正邁向商業化,Mobileye 正進入新的階段。我們透過汽車製造商(automakers)運作的業務仍是 Mobileye 的核心。同時,robotaxi 與人形機器人(humanoid robotics)是建立在相同實體 AI 基礎之上的重大長期機會,並需要新的營運模式與新的市場進入(go-to-market)策略。
Our next decade may be even more ambitious than the prior 27 years. That is why I believe this is the right time to begin a search for a new CEO. The next leader should bring operating profile to scale these opportunities and the mandate to lead the company into its next stage. This will be a singular opportunity to lead one of the most important physical AI companies in the world.
我們接下來十年的企圖心,可能甚至比過去 27 年更宏大。這就是為什麼我相信,現在是開始尋找新任 CEO 的適當時機。下一位領導者應具備能將這些機會擴大到規模的營運能力,並肩負帶領公司邁入下一階段的使命。這將是一個獨一無二的機會,去領導全球最重要的實體 AI 公司之一。
As for me, following the nomination of my successor, my goal is to contribute to the technology strategy, innovation and long-term opportunities that can shape Mobileye's future. I'm proud of what we built, and I'm even more excited what comes next.
至於我,在提名繼任者之後,我的目標是持續在技術策略、創新,以及能塑造 Mobileye 未來的長期機會上做出貢獻。我為我們所打造的一切感到自豪,而我對接下來的發展更是充滿期待。
I will turn the call over to Moran.
我把電話交給 Moran。
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Amnon. Before I begin, please be aware that all my comments on profitability will refer to non-GAAP measurements. The exclusions in Mobileye non-GAAP numbers are typically amortization of intangible assets, which is mainly related to Intel's acquisition of Mobileye in 2017 and stock-based compensation, including the partial offsetting impact of the new R&D incentive. This year, we also exclude the goodwill impairment loss that occurred in Q1 and transaction costs associated with the Mentee acquisition, which closed in early February.
謝謝你,Amnon。在我開始之前,請注意我所有關於獲利能力的評論都將以非 GAAP 指標為準。Mobileye 的非 GAAP 數字通常排除無形資產攤銷(主要與 Intel 於 2017 年收購 Mobileye 有關)以及以股份為基礎的薪酬(stock-based compensation),其中也包含新的研發(R&D)獎勵所帶來的部分抵銷影響。今年我們也排除了第一季發生的商譽減損損失,以及與 Mentee 收購案相關的交易成本(該交易於 2 月初完成交割)。
Second-quarter revenue of $508 million was relatively flat compared to last year's Q2, which was our highest revenue quarter of 2025. Volume over [10 million] was again above our expectations, driven by higher share within certain OEMs, higher ADAS treatment rates in emerging markets, and upside to China OEM export volume. These three positive trends were consistent throughout the first half and pushed our volume above the approximate 9 million quarterly average we had experienced during 2025. On a sequential basis, we were down almost 1 million units from Q1 to Q2.
第二季營收為 5.08 億美元,與去年第二季相比大致持平;去年第二季是我們 2025 年營收最高的一季。出貨量超過 [1,000 萬],再次高於我們的預期,主要受惠於在部分 OEM 的市占提升、新興市場 ADAS 配置率(treatment rates)提高,以及中國 OEM 出口量優於預期。這三項正向趨勢在上半年持續一致,推動我們的出貨量高於 2025 年約每季 900 萬的平均水準。以季對季來看,我們從第一季到第二季減少了將近 100 萬套。
It's important to remember that we believe Q1 included about 1 million of safety stock increase at customers. We believe that safety stock did not materially change during Q2, so underlying demand was basically flat from quarter to quarter. Supervision deliveries of around 20,000 units were also above our expectations, with a little over 40,000 delivered in the first half, compared to end-market demand for the vehicles of around 30,000. We do believe there is some intentional inventory building to protect against component shortages.
需要記住的是,我們認為第一季包含了客戶端約 100 萬套的安全庫存(safety stock)增加。我們認為第二季安全庫存並未出現重大變化,因此底層需求基本上呈現季對季持平。Supervision 交付量約 2 萬套,也高於我們預期;上半年合計交付略高於 4 萬套,而車輛終端市場需求約為 3 萬套。我們確實認為,為了防範零組件短缺,存在一些刻意的庫存建立。
This will be consumed during the second-half. As such, we are incorporating a reduction in shipment volume in the second-half of the year compared to the first and maintaining our outlook of slightly below 60,000 units. Adjusted operating income was $155 million, up 46% year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin was 31%, up about 10 percentage-points versus Q2 2025. The income and margin growth was more than accounted for by recognition of $93 million contra-R&D expense related to an R&D incentive enacted by the Israeli government during our Q2, as Amnon mentioned. Approximately 50% of the benefit was related to Q2 and 50% related to the Q1 impact recognized in Q2.
這些庫存將在下半年被消化。因此,我們在模型中納入今年下半年出貨量相較上半年將下降,並維持我們略低於 6 萬套的展望。調整後營業利益為 1.55 億美元,年增 46%。調整後營業利益率為 31%,較 2025 年第二季提升約 10 個百分點。這些獲利與利潤率的成長,主要(甚至超過)來自於在第二季認列 9,300 萬美元的研發費用抵減(contra-R&D expense),該抵減與以色列政府在我們第二季期間頒布的研發獎勵措施相關,如 Amnon 所提。約 50% 的效益與第二季相關,另 50% 則與第一季的影響在第二季一併認列有關。
Regarding the R&D incentive, this new regime became low during our Q2. But is effective as of the beginning of 2026. After a deep analysis and consultations with a variety of groups, we arrived at a specific recognition for the first half and have enough clarity to incorporate further benefits in the back half of the year that are expected to be similar in magnitude to the first half.
關於研發獎勵,這個新制度是在我們第二季期間成為法律。但其效力追溯自 2026 年初開始生效。在深入分析並與多個團體諮詢後,我們對上半年採取了特定的認列方式,且已具備足夠清晰度,能將今年下半年預期的進一步效益納入展望;其規模預計與上半年相近。
A couple of points of detail around this new item. It's obviously a large positive impact to our P&L, which we expect to continue in future years. There is no end date to this regulation, although it's, of course, subject to future changes in the law. There is potential for some volatility in the quarterly recognition of the incentive. It can be impacted by meeting recognition threshold, measurements of qualifying R&D expenditure incurred in Israel and exchange rate differences. It would also be impacted if Intel were no longer a controlling shareholder of Mobileye.
關於這個新項目,有幾點細節補充。這顯然會對我們的損益表(P&L)帶來顯著正面影響,我們預期未來年度也將持續。該法規沒有設定終止日期,但當然仍可能因未來法律變更而調整。季度間對該獎勵的認列可能存在一定波動。其可能受到是否達到認列門檻、在以色列發生之合格研發支出(qualifying R&D expenditure)的衡量,以及匯率差異影響。若 Intel 不再是 Mobileye 的控股股東,亦會造成影響。
This is a cash benefit, but the timing of cash inflows is quite delayed compared to the accounting recognition. For example, we expect the cash impact of the benefit recognized in 2026 to occur two years later, gradually from the beginning of 2028. There is also expected to be some level of offset on the tax line. Although not relative to street expectations, this Mobileye medium-term tax rate will be in the 20% range.
這是一項現金利益,但現金流入的時點相較會計認列會明顯延後。例如,我們預期 2026 年所認列之效益,其現金影響將在兩年後才出現,並自 2028 年初起逐步反映。在稅負項目上也預期會有一定程度的抵銷。雖然不一定與市場一致預期直接對應,但 Mobileye 的中期稅率將落在 20% 左右。
Currently, in 2026, our effective tax rate is expected to be in the 8% to 10% range, which is generally aligned with the cash tax rate. As a result of Israel implementation of the OECD Pillar 2 Global Minimum Tax Rules, we would expect both P&L and cash tax rate to increase up to 15%, potentially starting in 2027. Again, we believe that it already incorporates into street estimations.
目前在 2026 年,我們預期有效稅率(effective tax rate)約為 8% 至 10%,大致與現金稅率一致。由於以色列將實施 OECD 第二支柱(Pillar 2)全球最低稅負規則,我們預期損益表與現金稅率都將提高至 15%,可能自 2027 年起開始。再次強調,我們認為這已經反映在市場預估之中。
Turning to full-year guidance, we are increasing the full-year revenue outlook to $1.995 billion at midpoint and tightening the range, implying 4% to 7% revenue growth across the range. We see this as a strong growth in core business, given that the production volume of our top 10 customer is expected to be down about 4.5%. Our outlook midpoint is underpinned by a bit above 39 million EyeQ units, which is up almost 1 million units compared to our prior outlook.
接著談全年指引,我們將全年營收展望的中位數上調至 19.95 億美元,並收窄區間,意味著在該區間內營收成長率為 4% 至 7%。考量我們前 10 大客戶的產量預期將下滑約 4.5%,我們認為這代表核心業務的強勁成長。我們的展望中位數以略高於 3,900 萬顆 EyeQ 晶片出貨為基礎,較先前展望增加近 100 萬顆。
Partially offsetting the volume upside, coming mainly from China OEM export volume is modestly lower expectations in the aftermarket and moving business and some push out of advanced product samples, which carry very high per unit prices into 2027. Additionally, the approximately $10 million of higher-than-expected supervision revenue in Q2 is related to timing and results in a lowering of our supervision revenue expectation in the back half, as mentioned above.
部分抵銷這項出貨量上修(主要來自中國 OEM 出口量)的因素,包括:售後市場(aftermarket)與移動(moving)業務的預期略為下調,以及部分先進產品樣品(advanced product samples)的時程推遲至 2027 年;這些樣品的單價非常高。此外,第二季約 1,000 萬美元高於預期的 supervision 營收屬於時點因素,因此如前所述,我們下半年對 supervision 營收的預期相應下調。
We are increasing our outlook for adjusted operating income to $395 million at the midpoint, up from $210 million in the prior outlook. The guidance range for adjusted operating income actually widened slightly as the R&D incentive introduced an extra layer of potential volatility. We incorporate $180 million to $200 million in our full-year outlook for this item. That positive impact, as well as contribution from higher revenue is partially offset by some increase in expenses to support initial activities for robotaxi expansion and a very modest increase to operating expenses related primarily to foreign exchange.
我們將調整後營業利益的展望上調至中位數 3.95 億美元,高於先前展望的 2.10 億美元。由於研發(R&D)獎勵帶來額外一層潛在波動性,調整後營業利益的指引區間實際上略為擴大。我們在全年展望中納入此項目 1.80 億至 2.00 億美元。該正面影響以及較高營收的貢獻,部分被為支持 robotaxi 擴張初期活動而增加的部分費用,以及主要與外匯相關的營業費用小幅上升所抵銷。
Our assumption for full-year non-GAAP operating expenses is approximately $910 million at midpoint, including the expected $190 million R&D credit.
我們對全年非 GAAP 營業費用的假設為中位數約 9.10 億美元,其中包含預期的 1.90 億美元研發抵減(R&D credit)。
Turning to third quarter, we are assuming between 9.3 million to 9.5 million EyeQ units and for revenue to decrease approximately 5% to 6% on a year-over-year basis. We would expect gross margin to be slightly below Q2 level based on the mix of orders we are seeing currently, and for operating expenses excluding the R&D incentive to be slightly up from Q2 based on typical seasonality of higher operating expenses in Q3. The R&D incentive will go down significantly in Q3 from Q2, since Q2 also includes the retroactive impact of Q1.
談到第三季,我們假設 EyeQ 出貨量介於 930 萬至 950 萬顆,營收年增率將約下降 5% 至 6%。基於我們目前看到的訂單組合,我們預期毛利率將略低於第二季水準;而扣除研發獎勵後的營業費用,則因第三季營業費用通常季節性較高,將較第二季略為上升。由於第二季也包含第一季的追溯影響,第三季的研發獎勵將較第二季大幅下降。
To conclude, I'm very pleased with the higher foundational margin of the business, as well as our ability to largely keep operating expenses consistent with our initial outlook, offsetting some fairly severe FX headwinds that we were mostly able to offset with our hedging program and operational efficiency. At this point, we are approximately 85% hedge for the second-half, which should continue to reduce volatility. Also, operating cash flow was over $200 million in the first half, given that over $90 million of our adjusted operating profit was related to R&D incentive recognition in Q2, which won't be paid in cash for some time. This reflects very strong cash flow from the core business.
總結來說,我對公司更高的基礎毛利水準感到非常滿意,也對我們能在很大程度上將營業費用維持在初始展望一致感到滿意;在面對相當嚴峻的外匯逆風下,我們多數能透過避險計畫與營運效率加以抵銷。目前我們對下半年約有 85% 的避險比例,這應可持續降低波動性。此外,上半年營業現金流超過 2.00 億美元,原因在於我們第二季調整後營業利益中超過 9,000 萬美元與研發獎勵認列相關,而該款項在一段時間內不會以現金支付。這反映核心業務帶來非常強勁的現金流。
Finally, I was pleased with our initial execution of the share buyback program. We were able to deploy approximately $24 million at an average purchase price of $9.37. Subject to market condition and share price, we would expect to grow or maintain that pace over the course of the year.
最後,我也對我們股票回購計畫的初步執行感到滿意。我們以平均買回價格 9.37 美元部署了約 2,400 萬美元。
Thank you, and we will now take your questions.
謝謝,我們現在開始接受提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.
Joshua Buchalter,TD Cowen。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hi, good morning. This is Lanny on for Josh. Can you hear me okay?
嗨,早安。我是 Lanny,代 Josh 發言。你們聽得到我嗎?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, we can hear you.
可以,我們聽得到。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay, great. My first question is on your robotaxi deployment. So understand that Mobileye is moving into a vertically integrated strategy, but I do remember MOIA talking about not wanting to own the fleet itself a few years ago. Can you address any details on the strategy shift and how your partners are kind of reacting to the change in strategy? And I have a follow-up.
好的,很好。我的第一個問題是關於你們的 robotaxi 部署。我理解 Mobileye 正在轉向垂直整合策略,但我記得幾年前 MOIA 曾談到不想自己擁有車隊。你能否說明這項策略轉變的細節,以及你們的合作夥伴對策略改變的反應如何?我還有一個追問。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, thank you for the question. I think what has changed in the last few years is more clarity about the business. And some barriers that made vertical integration less attractive five years ago have changed. For example, level 4 ready base vehicles are becoming available. In the past, each player had to solve this alone at enormous cost.
是的,謝謝你的提問。我認為過去幾年改變的是,對這門生意有了更清晰的認識。而且一些在五年前讓垂直整合吸引力較低的障礙也已經改變。例如,具備 Level 4 就緒(level 4 ready)的基礎車款正逐漸可取得。過去每個參與者都必須以極高成本自行解決這個問題。
Fleet management and customer-facing software can efficiently build with modern AI and move its assets, compute and sensor stack have matured to a point where driving platform is essentially settled. And when we look at the entire business case, there's more clarity about demand and about revenue -- projected revenue per robotaxi. So the numbers show, looking at our competitors, somewhere between $100,000 to $200,000 for robotaxi per year.
車隊管理與面向客戶的軟體可透過現代 AI 有效率地建置;同時,我們的資產、運算與感測器堆疊已成熟到某個程度,使得自動駕駛平台基本上已趨於定型。而當我們檢視整體商業案例時,對需求以及營收——也就是每台 robotaxi 的預期營收——有了更清楚的掌握。因此,從競爭對手的情況來看,數據顯示每台 robotaxi 每年的營收大約在 10 萬到 20 萬美元之間。
Our calculations show $125,000, which is quite conservative. The cost of a vehicle with our sensors and our compute, we have a very lean cost structure, would be below $100,000. And the operating expenses per year per car is going to be a few tens of thousands. So overall, this is a very profitable and very strong ROI. And there are many ways to fund the CapEx of -- even when we go to the tens of thousands of vehicles. First, our cash reserves, the $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion, the expected operating cash of about $350 million per year going forward, there are many opportunities for external funding that we will start investigating when the time comes.
我們的計算顯示為 12.5 萬美元,這其實相當保守。搭載我們的感測器與運算平台的車輛成本,由於我們的成本結構非常精簡,將低於 10 萬美元。而每台車每年的營運費用將是數萬美元的等級。因此整體而言,這是一門非常獲利、投資報酬率(ROI)非常強的業務。即使我們擴張到數萬台車,也有很多方式可以為資本支出(CapEx)提供資金。首先,我們的現金儲備約 12 億到 13 億美元;此外,預期未來每年約有 3.50 億美元的營運現金流;同時也有許多外部融資機會,我們會在時機成熟時開始評估。
So we are less concerned about the commitment -- the financial commitment of owning vehicles because we see a very strong ROI to this business. And overall, what we're looking for is flexibility in the go-to-market. Now, in certain geographies. We would go full vertical, including the demand generation through a customer-facing application, the fleet management, all in-house. In some territories, we would integrate to a TNC network. In other territories, we may license the vehicle. So it provides us flexibility in go-to-market.
因此,對於擁有車輛所需的資金承諾——我們比較不擔心,因為我們看到這門業務的 ROI 非常強。整體而言,我們追求的是上市策略(go-to-market)的彈性。在某些地理區域,我們會採取完全垂直整合,包括透過面向客戶的應用程式來創造需求、車隊管理等,全部由內部完成。在某些地區,我們會與 TNC(交通網路公司)平台進行整合。在其他地區,我們可能會採取車輛授權(license the vehicle)。因此,這讓我們在 go-to-market 上具備彈性。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Thank you for all that detail. I really appreciate that. My follow-up is on pricing. So I understand that typically the automotive industry has an annual contracts are included, but we've heard a lot about input costs going up across the semiconductor supply chain. And I was wondering if you would be able to address anything you're doing regarding managing margins and if you're able to pass or share any input costs with your customers. Thank you.
謝謝你提供這麼多細節。我非常感謝。我的追問是關於定價。我理解汽車產業通常是年度合約的形式,但我們也聽到半導體供應鏈各環節的投入成本都在上升。我想請問你們在管理毛利方面做了哪些事情,以及是否能將或分攤部分投入成本轉嫁給客戶。謝謝。
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So I think we can divide it into two. So first, in our EyeQ business, our exposure cost at least on the memory side is indirect, as we provide only the chip and we haven't seen P&L impact of memory or cost increases this year.
是的。我想我們可以分成兩部分來看。首先,在我們的 EyeQ 業務中,至少在記憶體方面,我們的成本曝險是間接的,因為我們只提供晶片;而今年我們尚未看到記憶體或成本上升對損益表(P&L)造成影響。
And on the supervision side, there is a memory component that we buy. And we have observed some price increases this year that we fully pass through to our customer. It means obviously some headwind in supervision gross margin, but still it's a relatively small portion of the activity. So it doesn't impact significantly the total gross margin.
而在 Supervision 這一端,我們會採購包含記憶體的元件。我們觀察到今年有一些價格上漲,而我們已將其完全轉嫁給客戶。這當然意味著 Supervision 的毛利率會有一些逆風,但它仍然只占整體活動相對小的一部分。因此,對總毛利率不會造成顯著影響。
Operator
Operator
Joe Spak, UBS.
Joe Spak,UBS。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thanks, everyone. And Amnon, congratulations. It's been great having a relationship over the years.
謝謝各位。Amnon,恭喜你。多年來能保持合作關係一直很棒。
I guess my first question is also related to your own robotaxi unit initiative. Is there any initial reaction from some of your existing customers in terms of how they now view their relationship with you that at least it could be viewed in a part of their potential future business, you are a competitor as well as a potential partner?
我想我的第一個問題也與你們自有的 robotaxi 單位計畫有關。你們現有的一些客戶是否有任何初步反應?就他們現在如何看待與你們的關係而言——至少在他們未來潛在業務的一部分上,你們可能同時是競爭者也是潛在合作夥伴?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think overall the response is positive because it means that we are doubling down on development of robotaxi and the self-driving system is a core element in it. And this, I think, overweighs any other consideration there is there.
我認為整體回應是正面的,因為這代表我們正在加倍投入 robotaxi 的研發,而自動駕駛系統是其中的核心要素。我認為這一點會壓過其他任何考量。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thank you for that. And then maybe just another one on the Stellantis win. You know my understanding is that was sort of upgraded from an existing program you had with them. So it seems like that's a I guess you know to use non-engineering terms a relatively less painful upgrade. And I know you mentioned that there's some they have some other what you termed higher risk programs.
謝謝你。接著我想再問一題關於拿下 Stellantis 的案子。據我理解,那算是從你們與他們既有的專案升級而來。所以看起來我想用非工程的說法,這是一個相對不那麼痛苦的升級。而且我知道你提到他們還有一些你所稱的風險較高的專案。
I guess the question is like as you sort of look at your overall customer landscape and programs. Do you see a lot more potential for the sort of upgrade from current functionality to either Cloud ADAS or even Surround? Like, is Surround also a less quote-unquote, painful or less risky upgrade for these customers?
我想問的是,當你們檢視整體客戶版圖與各項專案時,你們是否看到更多從現有功能升級到 Cloud ADAS,甚至到 Surround 的潛力?也就是說,對這些客戶而言,Surround 是否同樣是相對「不那麼痛苦」或風險較低的升級?
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
So I think for the Synantis program is indeed an upgrade for an existing project that is already in production. And basically the decision was that the next startup production milestone for that program would introduce ram through Cloud Enhanced ADAS, which is a relatively straightforward implementation compared to designing a completely new architecture, a new ECU with a completely new sensor set and so on.
我認為 Stellantis 的專案確實是對一個已在量產中的既有專案進行升級。基本上,他們的決策是:該專案下一個量產啟動里程碑將透過 Cloud Enhanced ADAS 導入 RAM;相較於設計全新架構、全新 ECU、以及全新感測器組合等,這是相對直接的導入。
For the OEM, it's a very modest investment and there is a significant upside. And for us, it's mostly about software. So it's again, it's an easy execution. And it does provide some tailwind in terms of the ASP. For Stellantis, and their intent is to adopt this pretty much across the board for Stellantis vehicles effective 2027, gradually, of course, but ultimately getting to a standard fit integration of RAM in Stellantis fleet.
對 OEM 來說,這是一筆非常溫和的投資,但上行空間相當可觀。對我們而言,主要是軟體層面。所以同樣地,執行起來很容易。而且就 ASP 而言,它確實帶來一些順風。至於 Stellantis,他們的意圖是自 2027 年起幾乎在其全車系採用這套方案;當然會逐步推進,但最終目標是在 Stellantis 車隊中把 RAM 以標配整合的方式導入。
And I think we've seen a couple more examples like this from OEMs that see this as kind of a low-hanging fruit. And I think we're on pace to really expand our RAM ecosystem. As a consequence, the surrounding this is a little bit different because it does require a different design. So it's a new chip, it's EyeQ 6 High. In that case, it's already an EyeQ 6 Lite program with Stellantis. So for EyeQ 6 High, it requires designing a new system and then integrating this, validating it, and then launching it. So I think it's a different profiles, but we are encouraged by this win, Of course, it's an important milestone.
我想我們也從其他 OEM 看到幾個類似案例,他們把這視為某種「低垂的果實」。我認為我們正按計畫大幅擴展我們的 RAM 生態系。因此,Surround 這件事就有點不同,因為它確實需要不同的設計。也就是一顆新晶片:EyeQ 6 High。在那個案例中,Stellantis 已經有一個 EyeQ 6 Lite 的專案。但對 EyeQ 6 High 而言,需要設計一個新系統,接著整合、驗證,然後導入量產。所以我認為這是不同的風險/特性輪廓,但我們對這次拿下案子感到鼓舞;當然,這是一個重要的里程碑。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Maybe if I could speak one more. And just to be clear on your tax and the R&D credit comment. And what you're suggesting is that this is -- it's not even really sort of earnings neutral. It's actually sort of like slightly earnings positive that the net of the two changes.
如果我可以再問一題。我想釐清你對稅務以及研發抵減(R&D credit)的說法。你的意思是——這甚至不只是所謂的獲利中性。兩項變動相抵之後,實際上是略為提升獲利?
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I mean, that's what it means, that the tax or benefit regime has changed now in Israel. So Israel used to give reduced tax rates to technology companies, and having this multinational minimum tax rate has changed the way, the Israeli government splits the benefit, and yet it's a positive for Mobileye.
是的。我的意思是,以色列目前的稅制或優惠制度已經改變。以色列過去會給科技公司較低的稅率;而全球最低稅負制(multinational minimum tax rate)改變了以色列政府分配優惠的方式,但對 Mobileye 仍然是正面影響。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Yeah, and I'll just follow-up. This is Dan. It's more than slightly earnings positive because, especially compared to street estimates, which are essentially that we'll a tax rate of around 20% in future years. So this incentive changes our R&D expense sustainably. It does not change the way we'll pay taxes in terms of relative to street estimates.
是的,我再補充一下。我是 Dan。這不只是略為提升獲利,尤其是相較於市場(street)預估——市場基本上假設我們未來年度的稅率大約在 20% 左右。因此,這項激勵會以可持續的方式改變我們的研發費用。就相對於市場預估而言,它不會改變我們實際繳稅的方式。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Okay, so it's effectively $200 million benefit then, is what you're saying?
好的,所以等於是 2 億美元的效益,你的意思是這樣嗎?
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Correct.
正確。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Joe.
謝謝你,Joe。
Operator
Operator
Chris McNally, Evercore ISI.
Chris McNally,Evercore ISI。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Thanks so much. First, Amnon, I just wanted to send my best in your decision because I would say learning from you from the outside of the last decade has truly been -- I think, one of the highlights of my career, so I wanted to say thank you first before for the question.
非常感謝。首先,Amnon,關於你的決定,我想先致上我最誠摯的祝福;因為我會說,過去十年從外部向你學習,確實是——我想,是我職涯中最重要的亮點之一,所以在提問前先跟你說聲謝謝。
But maybe to that idea of the decision, I think what a lot of people are curious about, because I imagine its bittersweet is, how much the team has accomplished to this point, but we're sitting at the dawn of full autonomous, as you've kind of alluded to.
不過回到這個決定的想法,我認為很多人好奇的是——我想這種感受是苦樂參半——團隊到目前為止完成了這麼多,但我們正站在全面自動駕駛的黎明,你也多少提到過。
Could you maybe give us your opinion on things like the perception in the RSS software stack where you've been so heavily involved, like how much is left to quote unquote be solved or is left to be implemented by whoever your successor may be?
你能否談談你的看法,例如在你深度參與的 RSS 軟體堆疊中的感知(perception)等面向——還有多少事情有待所謂「被解決」,或還有多少需要由你的接班人去完成落地與實作?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you. Thank you, Chris. Look, we built a very strong foundation and we are at the point of really a big phase transition in the company. From the point of view of solving problems. We believe that we've solved all the problems. We have a Gen1 system being replaced by a Gen2 software stack, and in about a month or so, being replaced by a Gen3 system, which is incredibly sophisticated and incredibly advanced by end of year. The KPIs for robotaxi looks very good. We believe that we can start commercial deployment in Orlando by the end of the year, as we said in the past.
嗯,謝謝。謝謝你,Chris。你看,我們建立了非常強的基礎,而公司正處於一個真正重大的階段轉換點。從解題的角度來看,我們相信所有問題都已經解決了。我們有一套 Gen1 系統正在被 Gen2 軟體堆疊取代,並且大約再過一個月左右,會再被 Gen3 系統取代;到年底時,Gen3 將會非常精密、非常先進。Robotaxi 的 KPI 看起來非常好。我們相信可以在年底前於奧蘭多開始商業化部署,正如我們過去所說。
So I think the big problems are solved and are very close to final execution. Humanoid robotics is the next big thing, and we are still bullish on 2028 to be able to ship robots to the first use case, which we believe is going to be B2C and not B2B. So everything is ready from a technology point of view, but now this phase transition is more about operation. It's more about go-to-market. We need to explore new go-to-market, especially in the robotaxi and humanoids. Operations infrastructure should expand in order to support robotaxi.
所以我認為重大問題都已解決,而且非常接近最後的執行落地。人形機器人(humanoid robotics)是下一個大趨勢,而我們仍然看好在 2028 年能把機器人出貨到第一個使用情境;我們相信那會是 B2C 而不是 B2B。因此從技術角度來看,一切都已就緒,但這次的階段轉換更偏向營運。更偏向市場導入(go-to-market)。我們需要探索新的 go-to-market,特別是在 robotaxi 與人形機器人方面。營運基礎設施也應該擴張,以支援 robotaxi。
And then at the same time, AI is moving very very fast. Now, I'm also contributing a lot of signs into Mobileye, and I foresee that in the future, it could be a stretch to continue to manage the operation -- the daily operations and be strongly hands-on this fast-moving train called AI. So it is the right time to find someone who will take the growth of the company's operations and the growth of the company. And they keep me focused on the long horizon thinking. So it's never a good time, but among all possible time frames, I think now is the best time.
同時,AI 的進展非常非常快。現在我也在 Mobileye 投入大量心力在 AI 方面,我預見未來要同時管理營運——日常營運——並且在這列名為 AI 的高速列車上保持高度親自投入,可能會變得吃力。所以現在是找一位能夠帶領公司營運成長、推動公司成長的人的合適時機。而他們也能讓我專注在更長期的思考。所以從來沒有真正的「好時機」,但在所有可能的時間點中,我認為現在是最好的時機。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Yes, sort of from the software level to the physical AI ops level, is the way I'm thinking of paraphrasing that. And there's a real -- I think we're all trying to figure out the duration of this big R&D benefit that Dan talked about. Maybe a follow-on to Joe's question. I think you mentioned that this is the level under Intel's ownership. Could you just talk about what that level would be if Intel was at a lower percentage or if the stakes was ever owned by someone else?
是的,我的理解是,從軟體層面到實體 AI 的營運層面——我會這樣轉述。另外,大家也都在試著判斷 Dan 所談到這項大型研發效益能持續多久。也許延續 Joe 的問題。我想你提到這是在 Intel 持股之下的水準。你能否談談,如果 Intel 的持股比例更低,或如果這些股權曾由其他人持有,那個水準會是什麼樣子?
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so first question, yeah, this benefit is definitely sustainable. So over the past 10 years, Mobileye enjoyed, as a preferred technology company, 6% tax, which is very low in Israel, and it was very sustainable through all these years. Now, when there's a new tax regime, this benefit is no longer relevant. So the way to the incentive to tech companies is through this R&D credit, which is sustainable and comes to actually supersede the lower tax rate. So that's for the first question.
是的,第一個問題,沒錯,這項優惠絕對是可持續的。因此在過去10年,Mobileye 作為優先科技公司,在以色列享有6%的稅率,這在以色列非常低,而且這些年來一直非常可持續。現在,當有新的稅制時,這項優惠就不再適用。因此,對科技公司的激勵方式是透過這項研發稅額抵免(R&D credit),它是可持續的,並且實際上用來取代較低的稅率。以上是第一個問題的回答。
Second, on the Intel side, so Mobileye being part of Intel Group, because of the revenue threshold, there's a revenue threshold of ILS10 billion is entitled of the highest VAR of benefits which is a grant rate of 25% to 30%. But if there is a change in the controlling structure or Intel is no longer a control of the shareholders, the benefit would be based on the location of the R&D activity. And since Mobileye is very much centralized in Israel and specifically in Jerusalem, which is a preferred area, and it's also entitled the very high bar of the benefit, it will be in the entitled bottom line to half of the grant we currently estimate.
第二個,關於英特爾這邊,Mobileye 作為英特爾集團的一部分,因為營收門檻——有一個100億以色列謝克爾(ILS10 billion)的營收門檻——因此有資格取得最高等級的優惠,也就是25%到30%的補助率。但如果控制權結構發生變化,或英特爾不再是控股股東,優惠將會依研發活動所在地來決定。而由於 Mobileye 的研發高度集中在以色列,尤其是在耶路撒冷(屬於優先區域),同樣也符合非常高門檻的優惠,因此最終我們可享有的補助金額,將約為我們目前估計的一半。
So $100 million approximately instead of $200 million, that is still way high for most Israeli companies that have like maybe $10 million, $20 million, $30 million. That's the range because the Jerusalem impact is very significant. And also our concentration in Israel also as a standalone company.
也就是大約1億美元,而不是2億美元;但這對大多數以色列公司來說仍然非常高,因為他們可能只有1,000萬、2,000萬、3,000萬美元左右。大概就是這個區間,因為耶路撒冷的影響非常顯著。另外,我們作為一家獨立公司,研發也同樣高度集中在以色列。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Makes sense. So it's a consolidated revenue R&D look specifically for the benefits or whether it was Intel or someone else, it'd be whatever that R&D revenue share was applicable to the thresholds. Okay. Thank you so much, team.
了解。所以這是以合併營收來看、並針對研發來判定是否符合優惠;不論是英特爾或其他公司,都是看該研發營收占比是否達到相應門檻。好的。非常感謝,各位團隊。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Chris. Next question, please.
謝謝你,Chris。請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.
Aaron Rakers,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I guess I want to just maybe ask about -- I know you're not giving longer-term guidance beyond calendar '26, but when we look at street estimates, there clearly is an acceleration of growth into '27 and into '28, and obviously, you guys have been building design wins and stuff.
是的,謝謝讓我提問。我想我只是想問一下——我知道你們不會提供超過曆年2026年的長期指引,但當我們看市場一致預估時,很明顯在2027年與2028年成長會加速,而且你們也一直在累積設計導入(design wins)等等。
But I just want to level set, as we think about 2027, could you give a quick overview of some of the key programs that you see as really kicking into 2027 and driving that assumed accelerated growth that we see in street estimates?
但我想先校準一下預期:當我們思考2027年時,你們能否快速概述幾個你們認為會在2027年真正開始放量、並推動市場預估中那種加速成長的關鍵專案?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So 2027, we see the Porsche Supervision Program starting to ramp up. But 2027, we don't anticipate a big volume. It only starts to ramp up. That's the big -- I think that's the big growth driver in 2027. And if there's more. (multiple speakers) Yeah, the robotaxi launches in 2027 with the Volkswagen Group and our own AI launches.
關於2027年,我們看到保時捷 Supervision 專案開始爬坡。但在2027年,我們不預期會有很大的出貨量。它只是開始爬坡。我認為那是2027年最大的——我想那是2027年最大的成長驅動因素。如果還有其他的。(多位講者)是的,與福斯集團的 robotaxi 會在2027年啟動,還有我們自家的AI也會在2027年推出。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Okay. And then on the memory side, I know you talked about kind of your shipments above that of demand. And you touched on your own memory kind of attributes. But as you think about that dynamic and underneath the backdrop that it doesn't appear that memory is going to necessarily loosen up for the -- looks like for the foreseeable future at this point. Why would we necessarily expect your customers to compress their inventory? I'm just trying to understand your thought process around the component supply chain and the expectations into the back half of the year particularly as it relates to memory?
好的。接著在記憶體方面,我知道你們談到出貨量高於需求。你們也提到你們自身記憶體的一些特性。但當你們思考這個動態、並且在目前看起來記憶體供應在可預見的未來不太可能明顯寬鬆的背景下,為什麼我們會預期你們的客戶會壓縮他們的庫存?我只是想理解你們對零組件供應鏈的思考,以及對今年下半年、特別是與記憶體相關的預期?
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
So I think that, as Moran said earlier, we need to separate between our base ADAS business and the supervision one. Base ADAS, the overall system cost of the OEM is relatively modest, and the memory component is relatively small in that. And therefore, so far, we haven't seen indications from the market, there is a change in volumes or order intake throughout the year and also for the upcoming few quarters.
我認為,正如 Moran 先前所說,我們需要把基礎 ADAS 業務與 Supervision 業務區分開來。在基礎 ADAS 中,整體系統對 OEM 來說的成本相對不高,而記憶體在其中占比也相對小。因此,到目前為止,我們沒有看到市場有任何跡象顯示,今年內以及接下來幾個季度的出貨量或接單量會出現變化。
In supervision, we are selling an ECU that does have memory components and therefore we do have -- we do purchase the memory and therefore we incur the ended cost and we have transferred this to our customers. Again, as Moran said, so far it was possible. Of course, we cannot really say where will memory prices will be in a year. But so far, that has been the case. And overall, the volumes for Supervision we're selling in 2026 comprise a smaller portion of the overall revenue of the company. So these fluctuations do not have a meaningful effect on the average gross margin or the profit.
在 Supervision 方面,我們銷售的是一個確實包含記憶體元件的 ECU,因此我們會——我們會採購記憶體,因此我們會承擔相關成本,並且已將其轉嫁給客戶。同樣地,如 Moran 所說,到目前為止這是可行的。當然,我們無法真正預測一年後記憶體價格會在哪裡。但到目前為止,情況一直如此。而且整體而言,我們在2026年銷售的 Supervision 量,占公司總營收的比重較小。因此,這些波動對平均毛利率或利潤不會造成實質影響。
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer
And I would also say, I mentioned it in my remarks, that's the reason we didn't increase the yearly forecast for Supervision. So basically, I think we shipped like between 60% and 70% of the volume in the first half. And we did increase the yearly forecast because, our customer maybe wanted to protect themselves from the component issue and there might be some, headwind in the second half of the year. But in terms of revenue, we didn't increase the guidance for Supervision.
我也想補充,我在發言中提到過,這也是我們沒有上調 Supervision 全年預測的原因。基本上,我認為我們在上半年出貨了大約60%到70%的量。而我們確實上調了全年預測,因為我們的客戶可能想保護自己、以因應零組件問題,因此下半年可能會有一些逆風。但就營收而言,我們沒有上調 Supervision 的指引。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Yeah. Thank you.
是的。謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, Aaron.
謝謝你,Aaron。
Operator
Operator
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Yes, thank you very much for taking the questions. And let me add my thanks, Amnon. I appreciate all of the time you spent sharing your insights on the industry and taking our questions over the years and wishing you the best going forward.
是的,非常感謝讓我提問。也讓我補上一句感謝,Amnon。我很感激你多年來花時間分享你對產業的洞見並回答我們的問題,也祝你未來一切順利。
I had a follow-up on the Mobileye Drive business. You spoke a little bit on the progress VW MOIA is making. But could you expand on what you're seeing there? I think there was a plan to have a driver out to start commercializing around the end of this year in LA. Is that still on track? And as you think about the timeframe to roll out the 100,000 overall order with VW, has there been any shifting in your expectation for that?
我有一個關於 Mobileye Drive 業務的追問。你談到了一些 VW MOIA 的進展。但你能否進一步說明你們在那邊看到的情況?我記得原本有計畫在今年底左右於洛杉磯開始商業化、並安排一名安全駕駛(driver)隨車。這仍然按計畫進行嗎?以及當你們思考與福斯整體10萬台訂單的推進時程時,你們的預期是否有任何變化?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the launch in Orlando is on track. We believe we will get to the KPIs by the end of the year. Last week, there was an event showing end-to-end, including the teleoperation and the customer facing and the entire end-to-end driving experience and it was very successful and KPIs are on track.
奧蘭多的啟動計畫進度正常。我們相信到今年底我們會達成 KPI。上週有一場活動展示了端到端的流程,包括遠端接管(teleoperation)、面向客戶的體驗,以及完整的端到端駕乘體驗;結果非常成功,KPI 也都在軌道上。
LA is scheduled for 2027. So in terms of commercial with driverless deployment, of course, testing will start early 2027, but the commercial driverless deployment is scheduled towards Q3, second-half of the year and additional cities. As for the volume of 100,000, it is difficult to get precise numbers, but if the technology performs as we expect and the cost structure that we have and the Volkswagen production line of these vehicles, this number could eventually be lower than what could happen in reality, but it's difficult to say right now.
洛杉磯的時程是2027年。因此就無人駕駛的商業化部署而言,當然測試會在2027年初開始,但商業化的無人駕駛部署預計在第三季、也就是下半年,並擴展到其他城市。至於10萬台的量,很難給出精確數字;但如果技術表現如我們預期,加上我們的成本結構,以及福斯這些車輛的產線能力,這個數字最終可能會低於實際可能發生的量,但現在很難下定論。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Thank you for those thoughts. And my other was on Mentee and the humanoid market opportunity. You said earlier in the call that you're still expecting 2028 to be an important year for commercialization with the B2C focus. Can you speak a little bit more on the path to get there? I think the company has been looking for proof-of-concept deployments in 2026 and some of the R&D you're working on with v3 and v4, it will be helpful to better understand that path.
感謝您分享這些想法。我另一個問題是關於 Mentee 以及人形機器人市場機會。您在電話會議較早時提到,您仍預期 2028 年會是以 B2C 為重點的商業化重要年份。您能否再多談一些達成該目標的路徑?我認為公司一直在尋求於 2026 年進行概念驗證(proof-of-concept)部署,並且您正在推進 v3 與 v4 的部分研發;若能更好理解這條路徑將會很有幫助。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So on the hardware side, we are on the robot called V3.2, which was assembled a few weeks ago with additional capabilities. V3.5 in about a month, and the model that is going to be produced in volumes called V4 should be ready Q1 2027.
在硬體方面,我們目前在一款名為 V3.2 的機器人上,這台是在幾週前組裝完成並加入了額外能力。約一個月後會有 V3.5,而將進行量產的機型稱為 V4,預計在 2027 年第一季準備就緒。
On the software side, there's really accelerated development in terms of reinforcement learning across thousands of different settings and objects and use cases. It's all around home use. So we believe that the first deployment should be a B2C deployment and not a B2B deployment in order to focus on a precise product definition and not start customizing to each business requirement and then later start moving into. B2B. And we believe that 2028 will build around 500 units to start.
在軟體方面,強化學習在數千種不同情境、物件與使用案例上的開發確實正在加速。一切都圍繞居家使用。因此我們相信,第一個部署應該是 B2C 部署而不是 B2B 部署,以便聚焦於精準的產品定義,而不是開始針對每個企業需求進行客製化,之後再逐步進入B2B。我們相信 2028 年將先製造約 500 台作為起步。
Operator
Operator
George Gianarikas, Canaccord Genuity.
George Gianarikas,Canaccord Genuity。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Hi, everyone. And I also want to say thank you to Amnon and best of luck. So my first question, you mentioned, Amnon, on the call that there's been slower scaling in the robotaxi space by the leaders. I'm just curious as to what your thoughts are as to why that's happening. Thank you.
各位好。我也想對 Amnon 表達感謝並祝一切順利。我的第一個問題是,Amnon,您在電話會議中提到,領先者在 robotaxi 領域的擴張速度較慢。我想請教您認為為什麼會發生這種情況。謝謝。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's difficult to speculate, but I think it's around the cost structure. And that could be one reason for slow scaling. But no, you should ask those companies and not me. We believe that we have the right cost structure. We'll obviously not be the first in the market, but we believe that we can scale the fastest in this market. Therefore, the timing right now is really optimal.
這很難臆測,但我認為與成本結構有關。這可能是擴張緩慢的原因之一。不過你應該去問那些公司,而不是問我。我們相信我們具備正確的成本結構。我們顯然不會是第一個進入市場的,但我們相信我們能在這個市場中擴張得最快。因此,現在的時機其實非常理想。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Thank you. And maybe as a follow-up, there's so much written around Volkswagen and what their intentions are and their restructuring. I'm just curious if you can update us on what your relationship is like with the company. Thank you.
謝謝。再追問一下,外界對於 Volkswagen 以及他們的意圖與重整有很多報導。我想請教您是否能更新一下您與該公司的合作關係現況。謝謝。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Our relationship with Volkswagen is very robust. We have multiple programs, not only the program with the MOIA, we have the Chauffeur, we have the supervision. They are on track to commercialization. The first one is the supervision was led by Porsche. With respect to robotaxi, Volkswagen is undergoing changes. We don't know how this would affect the different branches or the different activities of Volkswagen. But so far, our information is not different from what you have.
我們與 Volkswagen 的合作關係非常穩固。我們有多個專案,不僅是與 MOIA 的專案,還有 Chauffeur,以及監督(supervision)。這些都在朝商業化推進。其中第一個是由 Porsche 主導的監督專案。至於 robotaxi,Volkswagen 正在進行變革。我們不確定這會如何影響 Volkswagen 的不同部門或不同業務活動。但截至目前,我們掌握的資訊與你們所知道的並無不同。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, George.
謝謝你,George。
Operator
Operator
Dan Levy, Barclays.
Dan Levy,Barclays。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Hi, thank you for taking the questions. Amnon, congratulations and best of luck on the next phase of your career.
您好,謝謝讓我提問。Amnon,恭喜您,也祝您職涯下一階段一切順利。
I wanted to just start with a question on the go-it-alone portion of robotaxi. I think we've seen from others in the past that the scaling can be extremely capital-intensive. You previously had an approach with Mobileye drive where it effectively left the scaling to others, and your approach was much more capitalized.
我想先從 robotaxi 單打獨鬥(go-it-alone)這一部分的問題開始。我們過去從其他公司看到,擴張可能會極度資本密集。你們先前採用 Mobileye Drive 的方式,實際上是把擴張交由他人負責,而你們的做法資本投入相對較少。
So what's the strategy here to do this in a way that is not as capital-intensive? And maybe you can give us a sense of what the additional spend requirements are, now that you're going along both in the near-term and the mid-term.
那麼在這裡的策略是什麼,才能以不那麼資本密集的方式來做?另外,既然你們在短期與中期都將同時推進,能否讓我們了解一下額外的支出需求大概會是什麼?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, a few years back, we were contemplating whether to go full vertical or just to be a technology supplier. And we opted on the safer route of being a technology supplier. And we have two major customers, the Volkswagen Group with MOIA and the Holland Group.
幾年前,我們曾在思考要走完全垂直整合,還是只做技術供應商。我們選擇了較安全的路徑,成為技術供應商。我們有兩個主要客戶:Volkswagen 集團(MOIA)以及 Holland Group。
Today, we believe that the conditions are right to expand the position of not just technology supplier, but to go full vertical in order to diversify the opportunities. So, for example, from a revenue perspective, if we go full vertical, it's 5x per car. The fact that there is a CapEx investment is not something that should deter because there is a very strong ROI on this business and there are multiple ways of funding it. I would say that the first 10,000 to 20,000 vehicles, we can fund it using our own cash reserves and the operating cash for the next five years that we generate.
今天,我們相信條件已成熟,可以擴大定位,不僅是技術供應商,也要走向完全垂直整合,以分散機會。例如,從營收角度來看,如果走完全垂直整合,每輛車的營收是 5 倍。需要投入資本支出(CapEx)不應成為阻礙,因為這項業務的投資報酬率(ROI)非常強,而且有多種資金來源可用。我會說,前 10,000 到 20,000 輛車,我們可以用自有現金儲備,以及未來五年我們所產生的營運現金來支應。
But there are very attractive ways to create external funding, which we'll investigate as the time comes. So we're not that deterred by the CapEx element of it. Because the ROI of this business is very strong and this is thanks to our competitors or the leaders and the perceived leaders in this space where we have more conviction, both in terms of the demand and in terms of what is the average revenue per car per year in order to build a business case. So this is why we decided that it is time to expand just from a self-driving system supplier to a full vertical operator.
但也有非常具吸引力的方式可以引入外部資金,我們會在時機到來時加以研究。因此,我們並不會因為 CapEx 這個因素而卻步。因為這項業務的 ROI 非常強,而這也要歸功於我們的競爭對手或這個領域的領先者與被視為領先者的公司;我們對需求面以及每輛車每年的平均營收(用以建立商業案例)都有更強的信心。因此,我們才決定是時候從單純的自駕系統供應商,擴展成為完全垂直整合的營運商。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Great, thank you. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask just if you could give us an update on the business in China. I assume that that's provided some of the upside on the EyeQ volumes. And also, maybe you can talk to -- there's some media articles that talk about one of your very large customers that's increasing collaboration with some of the other competitors out there like Horizon. What's the confidence that some of these Chinese competitors can't get out in that to other parts of the world and that competitively, you're still tied with your customers outside of China.
很好,謝謝。追問一下,我想請您更新一下中國業務的情況。我猜這可能為 EyeQ 出貨量帶來了一些上行空間。另外,也想請您談談——有一些媒體文章提到,你們某個非常大的客戶正在加強與其他競爭對手(例如 Horizon)的合作。你們有多大信心,這些中國競爭者不會把這種合作延伸到世界其他地區?以及在競爭上,你們仍能在中國以外與客戶保持綁定關係。
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President - Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager - REM
Yeah. So regarding the China or China volume growth, we have been working over the years with a few of the leading Chinese OEMs in terms of volumes, most notably Geely and Chery, two of our bigger customers in China. In the past couple of quarters, there have been increasing their export volumes in a very significant way, and that is the vast majority of these volumes is with the Mobileye system, with our EyeQ. So we have been benefiting from their successful export into new markets, and they have also nominated us for future programs as well, which means that we see this as kind of a vote of confidence that the Mobileye system is the best one for them for the export markets, whether it's trying to penetrate Europe, but even if they're trying to sell into emerging markets. Which again, I think has been -- this is the second year of steady growth in that regard, although a much more accelerated one this year.
是的。關於中國或中國出貨量成長,我們多年來一直與幾家中國主要 OEM 合作(以出貨量而言),其中最值得一提的是吉利與奇瑞,這兩家是我們在中國較大的客戶。在過去幾個季度,他們以非常顯著的方式提升了出口量,而其中絕大多數的出貨量都搭載 Mobileye 系統、也就是我們的 EyeQ。因此,我們受惠於他們成功出口到新市場;同時他們也在未來專案上提名我們,這意味著我們將其視為一種信任投票:對於出口市場而言,Mobileye 系統是他們的最佳選擇,無論是想打入歐洲,或是想銷往新興市場。同樣地,我認為這方面——這已是連續第二年穩定成長,只是今年的增速更快。
Regarding the domestic market in China, so I think it's not new that there are Chinese -- local Chinese competitors are talking and working towards exporting. So far, we haven't really seen, maybe outside of specific examples in India or very smaller, much smaller markets, we haven't really seen a successful launch of a Chinese solution in foreign markets. So without speaking too much into the future, so far, it hasn't been the case that they are successfully launching in Europe or US or Japan or Korea. So we feel fairly confident in maintaining our position in those markets.
關於中國的國內市場,我認為這並不新鮮——中國本土競爭對手一直在討論並致力於出口。到目前為止,除了印度的一些特定案例或更小、規模更小的市場之外,我們尚未真正看到中國方案在海外市場成功上市。因此,在不過多談論未來的情況下,迄今為止,他們並未在歐洲、美國、日本或韓國成功推出。所以我們對於在那些市場維持我們的地位相當有信心。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
I think one other point from me, this is Dan is that, regarding the OEM export -- the China OEM export business into emerging markets, like we're seeing a compounding effect where bringing these vehicles with good ADAS into emerging markets is pushing the legacy automakers to also increase their ADAS penetration rates in these markets. So it's a big reason why our growth over market is so good this year. Thank you.
我這邊再補充一點,我是 Dan:關於 OEM 出口——中國 OEM 將業務出口到新興市場,我們看到一種疊加效應:把配備良好 ADAS 的車輛帶入新興市場,正在推動傳統車廠也提高其在這些市場的 ADAS 滲透率。因此,這也是我們今年成長顯著優於市場的一個重要原因。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.
Tom Narayan,RBC Capital Markets。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Thanks for taking the question. Amnon, hopefully, we'll see you at CES. Your talk is one of the highlights of that event.
謝謝讓我提問。Amnon,希望我們能在 CES 見到你。你的演講是那個活動的亮點之一。
On that topic, though, could you talk about CEO succession planning as it relates to Chris's question. Is transport autonomy largely solved, but then humanoids is the next frontier? I guess, how does this inform how CEO succession planning might happen? And then I have a follow-up.
就這個話題而言,你能談談與 Chris 的問題相關的 CEO 接班規劃嗎?運輸自動化是否已大致解決,而人形機器人是下一個前沿?我想問,這如何影響 CEO 接班規劃可能如何進行?然後我還有一個追問。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The board has assembled a search committee. Of course, I'll help in the search. We are casting a wide net, so we're not specifying the profile of the person, he or she. And we want to look for the best CEO for the coming 10 years of growth of Mobileye.
董事會已成立一個遴選委員會。當然,我會協助搜尋。我們會廣泛尋覓,因此不會限定人選的輪廓,不論是他或她。我們希望為 Mobileye 未來 10 年的成長,找到最合適的 CEO。
As for humanoids, this is exactly the area which I want to focus more in terms of emerging technology. I believe that the autonomous vehicle technology is largely solved. The programs that we have, I don't see any open scientific problem there. With regard to humanoids, I see a lot of potential, a lot of opportunities to innovate. And this is an area that I would like to spend more of my time.
至於人形機器人,這正是我想在新興技術方面投入更多心力的領域。我相信自動駕駛車輛技術在很大程度上已經解決。就我們現有的專案而言,我看不到任何尚未解決的科學問題。但在人形機器人方面,我看到很大的潛力、很多創新的機會。這也是我希望投入更多時間的領域。
And this timing is good. A new CEO will take care of the growth of the company, especially those areas in which the technology issues are solved. And I can focus on the kind of the long-horizon thinking work with the M&T team in order to make sure that we have a successful launch in 2028.
而這個時點也很合適。新的 CEO 將負責公司的成長,特別是那些技術問題已解決的領域。而我可以專注於較長期視角的思考工作,與 M&T 團隊合作,以確保我們能在 2028 年成功推出。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Got it. Thank you. And another one on this, on the owned and operated robotaxi with MoovIt. I guess the target is, I think, a 17,000 fleet in five years. There's a number of third-party forecasters that have 300,000 to 500,000 fleet affordable taxis in the US alone. Is it you're keeping the optionality open to have this approach or could this expand farther? You talked about the economics here, why it's so much better to have an owned and operated effort.
了解。謝謝。另外一個問題,關於與 MoovIt 的自營 robotaxi。我想目標是五年內達到 17,000 輛車隊。有一些第三方預測機構認為,僅在美國就會有 300,000 到 500,000 輛可負擔的計程車車隊。你們是要保留採用這種做法的選擇權,還是可能擴張得更大?你談到這裡的經濟性,為什麼自營模式會好很多。
Is that what it is, that there's an optionality to expand that further if you want to? Or is it a strategy to keep it at this level so you can also be a supplier as well? Thanks.
是這樣嗎:如果你們想要,就保留進一步擴張的選擇權?還是說策略是把規模維持在這個水準,這樣你們也能同時作為供應商?謝謝。
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Of course, we are open to expand. We will know better in 2027. 2027, we plan to start with a fleet of 100 to 200 vehicles in a single city, which we more or less know what that city is, we'll expose it to the public when the time comes.
當然,我們對擴張持開放態度。我們會在 2027 年更清楚。2027 年,我們計畫先在單一城市以 100 到 200 輛車的車隊起步;我們大致知道是哪個城市,時機到了會對外公布。
The success of that deployment will determine how big of a fleet we want to have in the next five years. Some of it can be funded through our own cash and some of it could be through external funding, but we'll know better in 2027. As for the market, the next five years of 300,000, 400,000 cars, it's not our estimation of what's happening. I think that the 17,000 that we talk about is quite a meaningful market share in the next five years.
該部署的成功與否,將決定我們在接下來五年想要多大的車隊規模。其中一部分可由我們自有現金支應,另一部分也可能透過外部資金,但我們會在 2027 年更清楚。至於市場方面,未來五年達到 300,000、400,000 輛車,並不是我們對實際情況的估計。我認為我們所談的 17,000 輛,在未來五年已是相當有意義的市占。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Understood. And I can just squeak in a clarification on something you said. So the first VW Group vehicle that you may have supervision on would actually be Porsche, not Audi, is that what you said?
明白。我再快速確認一下你剛才說的內容。所以你們可能會先在 VW 集團的第一款車上導入 supervision 的,實際上會是 Porsche,而不是 Audi——你是這個意思嗎?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So Porsche is leading the program in terms of the car models, it includes also Audi car models for their supervision.
是的,Porsche 在車型專案上是領頭者;該專案也包含 Audi 的車型,會導入他們的 supervision。
Operator
Operator
Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer & Company.
Colin Rusch,Oppenheimer & Company。
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Thanks so much, guys. Can you talk about the maturity of your humanoid simulation platform and how quickly you're iterating with that and the cadence of impacting the hardware design from those learnings?
非常感謝,各位。能否談談你們的人形機器人模擬平台成熟度、迭代速度,以及從這些學習中對硬體設計產生影響的節奏?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we have a simulation infrastructure and foundation models, which are now focused on about 4,000 different objects that the robot needs to identify and plan a grasping trajectory towards it. And we are on track with that effort. And we're building also a stack of both imitation learning and reinforcement learning through simulation for the home use case, and that's also on track.
我們有一套模擬基礎設施與基礎模型,目前聚焦於約 4,000 種不同物體,機器人需要辨識它們並規劃抓取軌跡。這項工作正按計畫推進。我們也正在透過模擬,為居家使用情境建立一套包含模仿學習與強化學習的堆疊,這部分也在軌道上。
So we believe that with the robots of -- the V4 robot in Q1 2027, we could have it all integrated. It will be running -- in terms of the compute, will be running on an NVIDIA Thor, the latest chip NVIDIA has in this area. And it would be strong enough to support all the needs that we have.
因此我們相信,隨著——在 2027 年第一季推出的 V4 機器人,我們可以把所有內容整合起來。在算力方面,它將運行在 NVIDIA Thor 上,也就是 NVIDIA 在此領域最新的晶片。而它的性能將足以支援我們所有需求。
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Excellent. And then just one practical question. As you begin to think about introducing the humanoids into the market and in homes, how mature are your conversations with insurance providers and any sort of other kind of services to make sure that the consumers are comfortable having these bots in their home?
很好。再一個實務問題。當你們開始思考把人形機器人導入市場、進入家庭時,你們與保險業者的對話成熟度如何?以及是否有任何其他類型的服務,來確保消費者對把這些機器人放在家中感到安心?
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
This is a conversation that we will start in 2027. It's too early to have this conversation. I think it is best to first demonstrate this and have a certain beta side for it and then have this kind of conversation. I believe there will be demand. And also our competitors are also focused on home use as a major market for them.
這類對話我們會在 2027 年開始。現在談還太早。我認為最好先展示成果,並進行一定程度的 beta 測試,之後再進行這類對話。我相信會有需求。而且我們的競爭對手也把居家使用作為他們的重要市場。
Operator
Operator
We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Dan for closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交回 Dan 作結語。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Sherry, and thanks, everyone, for joining our Q2 earnings call. We'll talk to you again in three months. Thank you.
謝謝你,Sherry,也謝謝各位參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。我們三個月後再與各位交流。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。也感謝您的參與。