Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025年營收達19億美元,年增15%,高於原先6%成長中位數指引;調整後營業利益2.8億美元,年增45%,營業現金流年增超過50%
    • 2026年營收指引為19億至19.8億美元,年增0-5%;IQ出貨量預估3700萬台,Q1出貨1000萬台,全年維持9百萬台/季水準
    • Q4盤點Tier 1客戶庫存極低,Q1預期有安全庫存回補;2025年Q4有700萬美元一次性裁員費用,未納入前次指引
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • EyeQ6H晶片於全球兩大OEM獲得重大設計案,推動新一代ADAS滲透
      • 中國OEM ADAS與Supervision出貨量高於預期,帶動2025年成長,並與中國車廠出口動能連動
      • 與Volkswagen集團合作Robotaxi,預計2033年前擴大至10萬台規模,2026年Moya車隊將移除安全駕駛員
      • Mentee Robotics收購案,切入人形機器人領域,技術與自駕車高度重疊,預期加速雙方產品商業化
    • 風險:
      • IQ5相關成本壓力持續,2026年毛利率預期下滑,2027年起才會改善
      • 中國OEM訂單能見度短,2026年預估較2025年下滑50萬台,維持保守預期
      • 以色列幣升值造成人事成本上升,雖有對沖與裁員措施但未能完全抵銷
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 2025年IQ出貨量:3560萬台,優於原預期3200-3400萬台,Q2/Q3高於趨勢,Q1/Q4略低
    • 2026年IQ出貨量指引:3700萬台,Q1約1000萬台,全年每季約900萬台
    • 2025年調整後營業利益:2.8億美元,年增45%,營業利益率15%,年增300bps
    • 2025年OpEx:10.03億美元,略高於原預算,主因Q4一次性裁員費用
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026年營收預估:19億至19.8億美元,年增0-5%
    • 2026年毛利率預估:年減,主因IQ5成本壓力、產品組合與雙晶片專案影響
    • 2026年OpEx預估:11億美元,年增10%,其中5%為正常薪資/基礎設施成長,餘為Mentee R&D與部分匯率影響
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 競爭環境(如NVIDIA等CES新宣布)對Mobileye有何影響?
      A: 我們認為自身技術成熟度與產品上市時程領先同業,2026-2027年將有多款先進產品落地,現階段市場多為技術展示與噪音,NVIDIA等新開源模型不影響我們的市場定位。
    • Q: Mentee Robotics與其他人形機器人新創的差異化優勢?
      A: Mentee具備全自動AI控制、垂直整合(包含致動器、AI、軟硬體)、可被動學習人類動作,且已與客戶進行純AI無遠端操作的POC,技術成熟度與商業化進度領先。
    • Q: Surround ADAS 2026年客戶拓展進度?
      A: 已獲全球前六大OEM中的兩家採用,帶動更多OEM洽談,產品具備簡化系統、降低成本、符合法規等優勢,預期將成為高銷量車型標配。
    • Q: Porsche/Audi專案量產時程與2026年營收影響?
      A: Porsche/Audi監控系統量產時程延至2027年Q1,2026年為執行年,未預期有重大營收貢獻,Drive/Robotaxi收入亦未納入2026年指引。
    • Q: 以色列幣升值對成本的影響及避險策略?
      A: 2025年已透過避險鎖定部分成本,2026年超過50%薪資成本已避險,剩餘部分受升值影響,已反映於指引,並以裁員等措施部分抵銷。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Mobileye fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Dan Galves. Mr. Galves, please go ahead.

    各位來賓,歡迎參加 Mobileye 2025 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。 (操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。現在,我榮幸地向大家介紹主持人丹·加爾維斯先生。加爾維斯先生,請開始。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Thank you, Donna. Hello, everyone. Welcome to a Mobileye's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call for the period ending December 27, 2025. Please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the business environment as we currently see it. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the accompanying press release, which includes additional information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    謝謝Donna。大家好。歡迎參加Mobileye 2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議,本次財報發布日期為2025年12月27日。請注意,今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見商業環境的前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及風險和不確定性。請參閱隨附的新聞稿,其中包含可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的具體因素的更多資​​訊。

  • Additionally, on this call, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP figures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in our posted earnings release. Joining us on the call today, as usual, are Prof. Amnon Shashua, Mobileye's CEO and President; Moran Shemesh, Mobileye's CFO; and Nimrod Nehushtan, Mobileye's EVP of Business Development and Strategy.

    此外,本次電話會議我們將同時提及GAAP和非GAAP財務數據。 GAAP與非GAAP財務指標的調整表已在已發布的獲利報告中提供。今天參加電話會議的還有Mobileye執行長兼總裁Amnon Shashua教授、財務長Moran Shemesh以及負責業務發展和策略的執行副總裁Nimrod Nehushtan,他們與往常一樣出席了會議。

  • Thanks, and now I'll turn the call over to Amnon.

    謝謝,現在我把電話轉給阿姆農。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. As I look back on 2025, there are a number of meaningful positives to highlight, both for our company and the industry. In a very uncertain geopolitical environment, demand for our products came in higher than expected throughout 2025, demonstrating the resilience of the auto industry and our product offerings.

    大家好,感謝各位參加我們的財報電話會議。展望2025年,有許多值得關注的正面因素,無論對我們公司或對整個產業而言都是如此。在當前地緣政治環境高度不確定的情況下,2025年全年對我們產品的需求都超出預期,這充分展現了汽車產業的韌性以及我們產品的實力。

  • Results were quite strong, with revenue up 15%, adjusted operating profit up 45%, and operating cash flow up more than 50%. The industry began to clarify the structure and features of the next generation of ADAS for mass market vehicles. Several forces are coming together here. Demand for incremental safety, demand for convenience in the form of highway hands of driving, and the need to consolidate the technology on a single ECU to keep the system's cost low.

    業績表現強勁,營收成長15%,調整後營業利潤成長45%,經營現金流成長超過50%。業界開始明確面向大眾市場車輛的下一代ADAS系統的結構與功能。多種因素共同推動了這一趨勢:對更高安全性的需求、對高速公路駕駛輔助等便利功能的需求,以及將技術整合到單一ECU上以降低系統成本的必要性。

  • Mobileye's EyeQ6H chip is very well positioned, and we won the first two major programs with two of the biggest fixed OEMs in the world. Waymo's commercialization provided a number of supporting proof points on consumer acceptance and demand for autonomous mobility services.

    Mobileye的EyeQ6H晶片市場地位非常穩固,我們贏得了與全球兩大固定式汽車OEM廠商合作的首批兩個重要項目。 Waymo的商業化也為消費者接受與需求自動駕駛行程服務提供了許多佐證。

  • This led to a major uptick in demand signals from transportation network companies and public transport groups, which led to an expansion of expected volume to our Volkswagen ecosystem to 100,000 units by 2033. We are now one year closer to the launch of our advanced products with the Volkswagen Group. We expect the first major public milestone to be removal of the safety drivers in Moya's robotaxi fleet in 2026.

    這促使來自運輸網路公司和公共交通集團的需求訊號大幅成長,進而推動了我們預計到2033年大眾汽車生態系統的銷售將達到10萬輛。我們距離與大眾汽車集團合作推出先進產品又近了一年。我們預計第一個重要的公開里程碑將是2026年Moya無人駕駛計程車車隊中安全駕駛員的移除。

  • We are implementing a unique fast-think, slow-think structure to our advanced products that we believe accelerates both precision and scalability. This includes novel technologies like vision language semantic action models and artificial community intelligence.

    我們正在為我們的先進產品實施獨特的「快思考與慢思考」相結合的架構,我們相信這能夠同時提升產品的精準度和可擴展性。這其中包括視覺語言語義動作模型和人工智慧社群智慧等創新技術。

  • And finally, Mobileye took a decisive step to expand its footprint into the humanoid robotics field with acquisition of Mentee Robotics. Mentee has achieved a fully vertically integrated, low-cost, highly capable robot that has a clear path to commercialization into the structured environments of industrial and logistic services fields, and with its distinctive technology to cater to unstructured environments like home use cases.

    最後,Mobileye 透過收購 Mentee Robotics,邁出了進軍人形機器人領域的決定性一步。 Mentee 打造了一款完全垂直整合、低成本、功能強大的機器人,該機器人擁有清晰的商業化路徑,可應用於工業和物流服務等結構化環境,並且憑藉其獨特的技術,也能滿足家庭等非結構化環境的需求。

  • Aside from our 2025 results, we detailed all of these areas in my CES talk on January 6. I encourage anyone with an interest in Mobileye or just physical AI in general to make sure to view that presentation.

    除了我們 2025 年的預測結果之外,我在 1 月 6 日的 CES 演講中詳細介紹了所有這些領域。我鼓勵所有對 Mobileye 或實體人工智慧感興趣的人務必觀看那次演講。

  • Turning to guidance, Moran will spend some time on it, but I'll address it briefly. We're encouraged by the volume growth we are expecting despite global auto production that's expected to be flattish again. And while we don't expect the volume levels of Q1 to be sustained throughout the year, it's a strong signal for the year and order flows for Q1 has been rising for the last month or two.

    關於業績指引,莫蘭將詳細說明,但我在此僅作簡要說明。儘管全球汽車產量預計將再次趨於平穩,但我們對銷售成長的預期感到鼓舞。雖然我們預計第一季的銷售水準無法全年維持,但這仍然是一個強勁的市場訊號,而且第一季的訂單量在過去一兩個月一直在成長。

  • Turning to technology. At CES, I talked a bit about the debate around approach, specifically this concept of data in, commands out, which is a false debate because no legitimate actors in our field are actually doing that. There's always a need for structure and architecture, and everyone's architectures have evolved given advancements in AI over the last few years, including ours.

    轉向技術方面。在CES上,我談到了一些關於方法論的爭論,特別是「資料輸入,指令輸出」的概念。這種爭論其實是錯誤的,因為我們領域內沒有任何一家正規的公司真正採用這種模式。結構和架構始終是必要的,而且隨著過去幾年人工智慧技術的進步,包括我們公司在內,所有人的架構都在不斷發展演變。

  • We introduced two new innovations that are accelerating our path to precision, scalable autonomous vehicles. One is Artificial Community Intelligence, referred to as ACI. This is a simulation concept using a self-play reinforcement learning technique that we're using to train our planning engine, also known as driving policy.

    我們推出了兩項創新技術,加速了我們實現精準、可擴展自動駕駛汽車的進程。其中一項是人工智慧社群智慧(簡稱ACI)。這是一種模擬概念,它採用自博弈強化學習技術來訓練我們的規劃引擎,也就是駕駛策略。

  • This is the first-ever productization of a technique proposed in academic research. A strong motivation for ACI is that the sample complexity for planning is much higher than for perception, because the multi-agent nature of driving or actions that you take will impact the actions of other world users. Therefore, the amount of data one needs to collect could be unwieldy, even for large data collection fleets.

    這是學術研究中提出的技術首次實現產品化。 ACI 的一個重要驅動力在於,規劃的樣本複雜度遠高於感知,因為駕駛的多智能體特性或您的行為會影響其他使用者的行為。因此,即使對於大型數據採集車隊而言,需要收集的數據量也可能非常龐大。

  • As a solution, we have created simulators that can achieve 1 billion hours of training overnight. Mobileye has unique advantages here since our REM maps, which cover much of the globe, can be used as a realistic and diverse baseline structure for the training.

    作為解決方案,我們開發了模擬器,可以在一夜之間完成 10 億小時的訓練。 Mobileye 在這方面具有獨特的優勢,因為我們涵蓋全球大部分地區的 REM 地圖可以作為真實且多樣化的訓練基準結構。

  • The other advantage is we have developed sophisticated Sim2Real techniques that have the required understanding of the noise model of our perception engine when transferring the driving policy to the real world. That Sim2Real technology is also very relevant to humanoid robotics and will be a key area of technology sharing between Mobileye and Mentee.

    另一個優點在於,我們開發了先進的Sim2Real技術,該技術能夠充分理解感知引擎的噪音模型,從而將駕駛策略遷移到現實世界。這項Sim2Real技術也與人形機器人密切相關,並將成為Mobileye和Mentee之間技術共享的關鍵領域。

  • We also introduced a fast-think, slow-think concept that utilizes specialized vision language models to provide contextual information and to address robustness to vehicle decision-making. This is not necessarily about safety. It's more about understanding the semantics of complex scenes.

    我們還引入了「快思考/慢思考」的概念,利用專門的視覺語言模型來提供上下文訊息,並提高車輛決策的穩健性。這並非完全關乎安全,而更多的是為了理解複雜場景的語義。

  • For example, a scene where a policeman signals that the road he would like to take is blocked. The safety layer ensures that we won't hit the policeman, but we also need to understand the scene, figure out that we shouldn't try to overtake the policeman, but rather we should either wait or take a different route.

    例如,假設有這樣一個場景:一名警察示意他想走的路被堵住了。安全層會確保我們不會撞到警察,但我們也需要理解場景,明白我們不應該試圖超車,而是應該等待或選擇其他路線。

  • This is what slow thinking gives. Since this is not safety critical, the contextual information can be inputted into the system at a lower frequency than perception, which is typically analyzed at 10 frames per second. Structuring our architecture with fast-think and slow-think components saves compute and even brings use of cloud-based compute into the picture.

    這就是慢思考的優勢。由於這並非安全關鍵環節,因此上下文資訊可以以低於感知頻率(通常以每秒 10 幀的速度進行分析)的頻率輸入系統。透過建構包含快思考和慢思考組件的架構,可以節省運算資源,甚至可以利用雲端運算。

  • As a result, we can put a very sophisticated VLM on the in-car compute, but call on much, much bigger VLMs in the cloud when the situation forms. This has very positive effect on the mean time between intervention networks, but can also eventually lead to scalability benefits in terms of cars per teleoperator, as the VLM can replace a human teleoperator in many cases.

    因此,我們可以在車載運算平台上部署非常複雜的虛擬物流模組(VLM),並在緊急情況下呼叫雲端規模更大的VLM。這不僅對縮短幹預網路之間的平均間隔時間有顯著的正面影響,而且最終還能提高每個遠端操作員可操控的車輛數量,因為在許多情況下,VLM可以取代人工遠端操作員。

  • Turning briefly to our announced acquisition of Mentee Robotics. Most of the AI that humans are using every day is in the digital world. The two main applications of AI in the physical world are autonomous vehicles and robotics.

    接下來簡單談談我們宣布收購 Mentee Robotics 一事。人類日常使用的大部分人工智慧都存在於數位世界。人工智慧在現實世界中的兩大主要應用領域是自動駕駛汽車和機器人。

  • It makes sense for these two expressions of physical AI to be together because there's a great deal of technology overlap. Both extensively use computer vision and control, fast, slow thinking concepts, make heavy use of VLMs, and extensive Sim2Real techniques. Mentee itself, compared to other companies we evaluated, had a superior combination of strengths, including a high level of vertical integration; a pure AI approach with the ability to demonstrate high-level capabilities with no teleoperation; a design strategy that results in an optimized cost versus usefulness ratio; and above all, a distinctive AI technique to do continuous on-the-job learning from passive demonstration.

    這兩種實體人工智慧的實現方式之所以能夠結合,是因為它們在技術上有許多重疊之處。兩者都廣泛運用了電腦視覺和控制技術、快慢思維概念,大量使用虛擬線性模型(VLM),並廣泛採用模擬到現實(Sim2Real)技術。與我們評估的其他公司相比,Mentee 本身擁有更優越的優勢組合,包括高度的垂直整合;純粹的人工智慧方法,無需遠端操作即可展示高級功能;優化的性價比設計策略;以及最重要的,一種獨特的人工智慧技術,能夠透過被動演示進行持續的在崗學習。

  • A truly practical approach to capitalize on the most near-term industrial and logistics markets, and then expand to more challenging markets over time. We believe access to mobilized tools, simulation, and data-training infrastructure will accelerate Mentee's development. And the number of technologies developed for robots, such as self-play simulation and Sim2Real techniques, can also bolster mobilized AV development.

    這是一種真正務實的策略,旨在充分利用近期最具發展潛力的工業和物流市場,並隨著時間的推移逐步拓展到更具挑戰性的市場。我們相信,取得行動工具、模擬和資料訓練基礎設施將加速 Mentee 的發展。此外,為機器人開發的眾多技術,例如自演模擬和 Sim2Real 技術,也能促進移動式自動駕駛汽車的發展。

  • Finally, there is potential for catalysts as we continue to demonstrate the strong capabilities of the Mentee Robot and execute on customer proof-of-concept work in the near term.

    最後,隨著我們繼續展示 Mentee 機器人的強大功能,並在近期執行客戶概念驗證工作,可能會出現催化劑。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Moran.

    現在我將把電話交給莫蘭。

  • Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

    Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Amnon, and thanks for joining the call, everyone. Before I begin, please be aware that all my comments on profitability will refer to non-GAAP measurements. The primary excuse to Mobileye's non-GAAP numbers is amortization of intangible assets, which is mainly related to the acquisition of Mobileye in 2017. We also exclude software computation.

    謝謝Amnon,也感謝各位參加本次電話會議。在開始之前,請注意,我所有關於盈利能力的評論都將基於非GAAP指標。 Mobileye非GAAP資料的主要原因是無形資產攤銷,這主要與2017年對Mobileye的收購有關。此外,我們也不計入軟體計算費用。

  • Our full-year 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion likely exceeded the high end of our prior guidance. Full-year revenue was up 15% year-over-year compared to our original guidance of 6% growth at the midpoint. It was a very good year where a combination of minor upside in global production trends, IQ program launches, and higher-than-expected ADAS and supervision volumes from China OEMs led to significant growth.

    我們2025年全年營收預計為19億美元,可能超過了先前預期的上限。全年營收年增15%,高於我們先前6%的預期中位數。這一年業績表現非常出色,全球生產趨勢的小幅增長、智能駕駛輔助系統(IQ)項目的啟動以及中國汽車製造商(OEM)的高級駕駛輔助系統(ADAS)和監控系統銷量超出預期,共同推動了營收的顯著增長。

  • Full-year adjusted operating income was $280 million, up 45% year-over-year, and margin was 15%, up about 300 basis points versus 2024. The fourth quarter included a non-recurring expense of $7 million related to workforce efficiency initiatives we undertook in Q4. That expense was not part of our guidance as of the October earnings call.

    全年調整後營業收入為2.8億美元,年增45%;利潤率為15%,較2024年預期提高約300個基點。第四季包含一項700萬美元的非經常性支出,該支出與我們在第四季度實施的員工效率提升計畫相關。截至10月份的財報電話會議,該支出並未包含在我們的業績指引中。

  • So if you exclude that, adjusted operating income would have also been slightly above the high end of the guidance. Like I said earlier, we saw consistent positive revisions from our customers throughout 2025, and we've continued to see that over the last month or two during our 2026 planning process.

    因此,如果排除這部分因素,調整後的營業收入也將略高於預期上限。正如我之前所說,我們在2025年全年都持續收到客戶的正面預期修正,在過去一兩個月的2026年規劃過程中,我們也繼續看到了這種趨勢。

  • 2025 IQ volume was 35.6 million across the full year, which was well above our original expectations of 32 million to 34 million. We've seen a fairly consistent demand trend of 9 million units per quarter with some minor fluctuations across quarters. For example, in 2025, Q2 and Q3 were higher than trend. Q1 and Q4 were a bit lower.

    2025年全年IQ銷量為3,560萬台,遠超過我們先前預期的3,200萬至3,400萬台。我們觀察到,市場需求呈現較穩定的趨勢,每季約900萬台,各季度間略有波動。例如,2025年第二季和第三季的銷售量高於預期,而第一季和第四季則略低於預期。

  • One more point on Q4 before turning to the future. Modest upside to the higher end of our prior guidance was related to higher-than-expected supervision. IQ volume was consistent with the high end of our guidance of about 8.2 million units.

    在展望未來之前,再補充一點關於第四季的資訊。我們先前預期業績上限略有上調,主要原因是監管力道超出預期。 IQ銷售與我們先前預期的上限(約820萬台)相符。

  • This level at the start of the quarter looked a bit below the demand trend that our customers desired to end the year within inventory. But the demand trend in Q4 ended up higher than we expected. As a result, we believe that inventory at our Tier 1 customers ended in 2025 extremely low.

    本季初的庫存水準略低於客戶期望的年底庫存需求趨勢。但第四季的需求趨勢最終高於預期。因此,我們相信到2025年底,一級客戶的庫存水準將非常低。

  • We believe there is some level of adjusting safety stock that will occur in Q1 to get back to normal level. We expect about 10 million IQ units shipped in Q1 with support outlook of approximately 19% year-over-year growth in the first quarter. After that, customer forecasts indicate a reversion to the trend of slightly above 9 million units per quarter.

    我們認為,第一季將會出現一定程度的安全庫存調整,以恢復到正常水準。我們預計第一季IQ產品的出貨量約為1,000萬台,並預期第一季年增約19%。此後,客戶預測顯示,出貨量將回歸每季略高於900萬台的趨勢。

  • Turning to the full-year guidance, we are expecting revenue in the range of $1.9 billion to $1.98 billion, representing flattish to 5% growth. The midpoint of our guidance incorporates IQ volume of slightly above 37 million units, which again consists of 10 million units in Q1, and an assumption of a bit over 9 million per quarter in the balance of the year.

    展望全年業績,我們預計營收將在19億美元至19.8億美元之間,年增約5%。我們業績指引的中位數包含了IQ產品略高於3,700萬台的銷量,其中第一季銷量為1,000萬台,其餘季度每季銷量略高於900萬台。

  • If we look specifically at our top 10 customers, we are assuming that their overall production is down 2%, but our volume with those customers is up 6% at the midpoint. This includes about 700,000 units for a new OEM program that requires two IQ4 chips per car. That program is clearly a positive, and we will generate higher gross profit in dollars per vehicle. But since the second chip is lower priced relative to the first, It has an impact on overall ASP and gross margin.

    如果我們具體分析前十大客戶,假設他們的整體產量下降了2%,但我們與這些客戶的合作銷售中位數成長了6%。這其中包括一項新的OEM項目,該項目每輛車需要兩顆IQ4晶片,訂單量約為70萬顆。該項目顯然是一項利好,每輛車的毛利也將因此提高。但由於第二顆晶片的價格低於第一顆,因此會對平均售價和毛利率產生影響。

  • For Chinese OEMs, we are expecting a decline of about 0.5 million units compared to 2025, which was a bit above 3 million. We are encouraged by the significant growth in China OEM volumes in 2025. It aligns with their export volume growth, the area where our business is the strongest with those customers. We see no reason why that wouldn't continue into 2026. but prefer to remain conservative given we only have a short-term visibility into order flow with China OEMs.

    對於中國整車製造商(OEM),我們預計其銷量將比2025年(略高於300萬輛)下降約50萬輛。我們對2025年中國整車製造商銷售量的顯著成長感到鼓舞。這與他們的出口量成長相吻合,而出口正是我們與這些客戶業務最強勁的領域。我們認為這種成長勢頭有望延續到2026年,但鑑於我們目前只能對中國整車製造商的訂單量做出短期預測,因此我們傾向於保持謹慎。

  • Gross margin will be down somehow on a year-over-year basis, driven by continuation of IQ5-related cost headwinds. We discussed this on the October earnings call as an impact to the second half of 2025 that would continue through 2026, and then will gradually decline in beginning in 2027. We also have modest vehicle mix headwinds and the impact of the dual-chip program mentioned above.

    受IQ5相關成本持續上漲的影響,毛利率年比將會下降。我們在10月的財報電話會議上討論過,這項影響將持續到2026年,並從2027年開始逐漸減弱。此外,我們也面臨車輛組合方面的一些不利因素,以及上文提到的雙晶片專案的影響。

  • Turning to operating expenses, 2025 ended up at $1.003 billion. This was slightly above our original budget of $995 million accounted for by the non-recurring termination-related bookings in Q4 mentioned above. In 2026, we are expecting around $1.1 billion or 10% growth.

    就營運支出而言,2025 年最終達到 10.03 億美元。這略高於我們最初 9.95 億美元的預算,主要原因是上文提到的第四季與終止合約相關的非經常性支出。我們預計 2026 年的營運支出約為 11 億美元,年增 10%。

  • The underlying growth in OpEx is approximately 5% consisting of normal salary and benefit inflation as well as additional infrastructure to support execution of the advanced products in 2026 and 2027. On top of that, we are including non-TRMD expenses.

    營運支出基本成長約為 5%,其中包括正常的工資和福利上漲,以及為支援 2026 年和 2027 年先進產品的執行而增加的基礎設施。此外,我們也計入了非 TRMD 費用。

  • Finally, we are experiencing an FX headwind related to appreciation of the Israeli currency versus the US dollar, that meaningfully raises our headcount costs in dollar terms. This is being mostly offset by the workforce efficiency initiative noted above, but not completely.

    最後,我們正面臨以色列元兌美元升值帶來的外匯不利影響,這將顯著增加我們以美元計價的人力成本。上文提到的提高員工效率的措施在很大程度上抵消了這一影響,但並未完全消除。

  • To conclude, we are almost one month into 2026 and continue to see positive demand signals from our customers on the core business. As Amnon discussed, we are also seeing very good execution progress ahead of a large number of advanced product launches over the coming one to two years. as well as accelerating momentum and customer demand for next-gen higher ASP ADAS and transformative robot accessibility.

    總之,2026年已經過去近一個月,我們持續收到客戶對核心業務的正面需求訊號。正如Amnon所討論的,未來一到兩年內,我們將推出大量先進產品,目前執行進展非常順利。此外,下一代高售價高階駕駛輔助系統(ADAS)和變革性機器人輔助功能的需求也正在加速成長。

  • Thank you, and we will now take your questions.

    謝謝,現在我們將回答各位的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) George Gianarikas, Canaccord Genuity.

    (操作說明)George Gianarikas,Canaccord Genuity。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I'd like to ask first maybe on your view on the competitive environment, particularly in light of some announcements at CES from NVIDIA and others, just your view on what's happening in the advanced autonomous solution space.

    大家好。非常感謝各位抽空回答我的問題。我想先請教各位對當前競爭環境的看法,特別是考慮到英偉達和其他公司在CES上發布的一些公告,你們對先進自動駕駛解決方案領域的現狀有何見解。

  • SPEAKER_17

    SPEAKER_17

  • Thank you. So I think that we have been

    謝謝。所以我覺得我們一直以來

  • We've obviously seen a lot more announcements and excitement around advanced solutions and autonomous driving in general, and also robotics. It was one of the key things at CEF this year for everyone who attended. We still believe that we are closer to launching our advanced products than other competitors. And this is one of our strongest advantages, combined with the maturity of our technologies and the advances of our technologies. And we are, as we said, one year closer to launching A spectrum of products that spans from surround data supervision to a firm robotaxi, starting from 26 and through 2027. We believe this will be a major transformation for positioning mobile in the market. It's having proven products on the field. Right now, there is a lot of demos, a lot of referral to technologies and emerging technologies, and there is some, we think, noise. and maybe simplistic description of some of these technologies and how useful they could be for a reliable system. There is a recent announcement by NVIDIA about their open source model, Alphamayo, that they announced and supposedly given others' ability to, Amon will maybe want to say a word about this, but we don't see that as something that changes kind of our positioning in the market, really.

    我們顯然看到了很多關於先進解決方案、自動駕駛以及機器人技術的公告和熱議。這無疑是今年CEF展會上所有與會者關注的焦點之一。我們仍然相信,我們比其他競爭對手更接近推出我們的先進產品。這是我們最大的優勢之一,再加上我們技術的成熟度和進步。正如我們所說,我們距離推出一系列產品又近了一年,這些產品涵蓋從環視數據監控到全功能無人駕駛出租車,計劃從2026年開始,一直持續到2027年。我們相信,這將對行動通訊在市場上的定位產生重大影響。關鍵在於擁有經過實務檢驗的產品。目前,市場上充斥著大量的演示,對各種技術和新興技術的提及也很多,我們認為其中存在一些噪音,而且對某些技術的描述可能過於簡單,未能充分展現它們在構建可靠系統中的作用。 NVIDIA 最近發布了關於其開源模型 Alphamayo 的公告,他們宣布並賦予其他人相應的能力,Amon 或許會對此發表一些看法,但我們認為這並不會真正改變我們在市場上的定位。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • Thank you. And maybe I can ask a follow-up on Menti specifically.

    謝謝。或許我可以再問關於Menti的具體問題。

  • I mean, you mentioned yourself that there were a significant amount of startups and competitors at CES in the humanoid space. And just maybe a synopsis, a brief bullet point or two as to what the differentiation for Menti will be as you try to attack the marketplace and commercialize the product. Thank you.

    我的意思是,您自己也提到過,CES 上有許多機器人領域的新創公司和競爭對手。能否簡單概括一下,用一兩點說明 Menti 在進軍市場和實現產品商業化方面有哪些差異化優勢?謝謝。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think that a lot of startups, mostly in China, a lot of startups in the area of the humanoid, many of the demonstrations that you see out there are tele-operated. To win this game, you need to have a fully autonomous control of the robot, from perception to action to understanding the theme, having an AI stack. that can control the robot economically. And this is what MNT has been demonstrating quite consistently over the past year, year and a half. And at the end, I showed a number of clips. MNT is also fully vertically integrated with the design of the actuators, the gear, the AI itself, all the software components, and the electronics, which is which is crucial if you want to have a true end-to-end system. Another, I would say, distinctive element is the ability to do continuous learning. So Menti has developed an AI technology that allows the robot to passively view a human performing the task and imitate that task in a very, very short period of time without having any special equipment, no VR goggles or special suit, just passively observing a human performing the task. This is, I think, very important as we move from structured to unstructured environments like home use. So taking everything together, we have here a company that is both thinking you know, practical, what is going to be the first domain launch, which is structured environments like fulfillment centers, assembly, assembly plans, retail, and also developing the technology for the next deployment for unstructured environments like home use, fully vertically integrated, very strong in AI in AI components, whether it's reinforcement learning, simulations, , very strong, very interesting overlap, technology overlap with Mobilize that can go both ways, the synergies. So overall, this is a very good step for Mobilize to take decisive steps towards owning physical AI in its full scope.

    我認為很多新創公司,尤其是在中國的人形機器人領域,目前很多展示的演示都是遠端操控的。要想在這個領域取得成功,你需要對機器人進行完全自主的控制,從感知、行動到理解主題,都需要一個能夠經濟高效地控制機器人的人工智慧系統。而這正是MNT在過去一年到一年半的時間裡持續展現的成果。最後,我播放了一些影片片段。 MNT還實現了從執行器、齒輪、人工智慧、所有軟體元件到電子元件的完全垂直整合,這對於建立真正的端到端系統至關重要。另一個顯著的特點是持續學習的能力。因此,Menti 開發了一種人工智慧技術,使機器人能夠被動地觀察人類執行任務,並在極短的時間內模仿該任務,而無需任何特殊設備,例如 VR 眼鏡或特殊服裝,只需被動觀察即可。我認為,隨著我們從結構化環境轉向非結構化環境(例如家庭使用),這項技術至關重要。綜上所述,這家公司既著眼於實際應用,計劃首先在結構化環境中推出,例如物流中心、裝配線、零售店等;同時也在開髮用於非結構化環境(例如家庭使用)的技術。該公司實現了完全垂直整合,在人工智慧及其組件方面實力雄厚,無論是強化學習還是模擬,都與 Mobilize 的技術有著非常強的重疊,這種重疊具有雙向協同效應。總而言之,這對 Mobilize 來說是一個非常重要的一步,標誌著該公司在全面掌握實體人工智慧方面邁出了決定性的一步。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • If I may add to this, I think to kind of differentiate between the different actors, Minty are, as we know, probably the only Western human and robot company that is actively engaging with customers on proof of concepts and pilots that involve pure AI operations with no remote operation. We chose something about the advancements of the use of robots in a setting that a customer is willing to evaluate and deploy in a kind of a non-sterile settings. Unlike maybe some hype videos that show something on a YouTube clip, this is an actual testing environment. This is a different stage of maturity and of engagement with potential customers. And we believe that through integrating mobilized technologies, we have obviously strong strengths in computer vision, in AI using cameras, and using sensor fusion, and designing systems for safety and reliability, and how to integrate systems in a very cost-efficient manner and efficient compute All of these will help them even excel with the progress they've made so far.

    如果允許我補充一點,我認為為了區分不同的參與者,Minty 可能是西方唯一一家積極與客戶合作進行概念驗證和試點專案的機器人公司,這些專案涉及純人工智慧操作,不涉及遠端操作。我們選擇的項目是關於在客戶願意評估和部署的非無菌環境中應用機器人技術的進步。與一些在 YouTube 上展示的宣傳影片不同,這是一個真實的測試環境。這代表著我們與潛在客戶合作的成熟度和參與度都處於不同的階段。我們相信,透過整合行動技術,我們在電腦視覺、使用攝影機的人工智慧、感測器融合、安全可靠的系統設計、以及如何以極具成本效益的方式整合系統和高效運算等方面都擁有強大的優勢。所有這些都將幫助他們在目前的進展基礎上更上一層樓。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Thank you. Thank you, George. Next question, please.

    謝謝。謝謝你,喬治。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

    馬克‧德萊尼,高盛集團。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning and good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking the questions. For Surround ADAS, the company's already reported on some strong momentum. You spoke about the two big OEMs that have already committed and given series production awards. As you look at the opportunity set in 2026, could you give a bit more details on the number of OEMs you're engaged with for Surround ADAS and how many might be able to convert into awards this year?

    是的,早上好,下午好。非常感謝您回答這些問題。關於環繞式ADAS,貴公司已經報告稱其發展勢頭強勁。您提到了兩家大型OEM廠商已經承諾並授予了量產合約。展望2026年的發展機遇,您能否詳細介紹一下目前與多少家OEM廠商就環繞式ADAS進行洽談,以及今年有多少家廠商有望最終授予合約?

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • I think the important point about Surround ADAS is that this is a product that addresses a very clear pain point for customers and for OEMs. in the sense that it simplifies the system. It reduces costs. It provides advanced functionality. It meets future regulations. So it ticks most of the boxes that OEMs want to tick for the high-volume vehicle segments in the upcoming years. Therefore, the first OEM that we announced with Volkswagen was kind of starting a trend that created a flywheel effect of more and more OEMs being interested. Now, having announced the second design win with, you know, We now have two out of the top six OEMs in the planet in major markets adopting this and launching this in a few years. This has definitely created a stronger realization amongst other OEMs that this has to happen for them also, at least to some degree. We've seen an increase in the amount of engagements we have. I don't want to predict timing and quantities, but we're definitely encouraged by the increase in different engagements we have. with multiple OEMs across our customer base. And we also believe that we have inherent advantages for this product category because it requires a very reliable system performance, very high safety standards, advanced functionalities like hands-free driving in primary roads and so on, but also be extremely cost efficient. And just to give you some sense, these two programs we won are going to be integrated in the kind of a standard across and the highest-volume vehicle categories for these two OEMs. So every dollar counts, and also the implications for the OEMs to adopt this product means how much conviction they have that they need such a product for, you know, it's not a balloon project in a small amount of vehicles, you know, that if it fails, then, you know, nothing happened. If this project is delayed, for example, this is obviously affecting the entire vehicle portfolio. So it shows about the confidence they have in Mobileye, how much conviction they have in this product, It's definitely an encouraging sign.

    我認為Surround ADAS的關鍵在於,它解決了客戶和OEM廠商的痛點。它簡化了系統,降低了成本,提供了先進的功能,並符合未來的法規要求。因此,它幾乎滿足了OEM廠商在未來幾年內對高銷售車型細分市場的大部分需求。所以,我們與大眾汽車宣布的首個合作開啟了這個趨勢,並產生了連鎖反應,吸引了越來越多的OEM廠商的注意。現在,我們又宣布了第二個設計合作項目,這意味著全球主要市場排名前六的OEM廠商中有兩家正在採用這項技術,並將在幾年內推出。這無疑讓其他OEM廠商更加深刻地意識到,他們也必須在一定程度上採用這項技術。我們看到合作洽談的數量增加。我不想預測具體的時間和數量,但我們與眾多OEM廠商的合作洽談數量增加,這無疑令人鼓舞。我們相信,我們在這個產品類別中擁有固有的優勢,因為它需要非常可靠的系統性能、極高的安全標準、先進的功能(例如在主要道路上實現免手持駕駛等等),同時還要具有極高的成本效益。為了讓您更直觀地了解,我們贏得的這兩個項目將整合到這兩家汽車製造商(OEM)銷量最高的車型類別中,並成為標準配置。因此,每一分錢都至關重要。此外,OEM採用這款產品也顯示了他們對這款產品的信心,這並非小規模項目,即使失敗也不會造成什麼影響。例如,如果這個項目延期,顯然會影響整個車型組合。這充分體現了他們對Mobileye的信任,以及對這款產品的信心,這無疑是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Thanks. My other question was on Menti. Given the announcement and engagements that you've had with potential future customers and industry participants, can you help us better understand to what extent it's catalyzed additional interest in partnering with Menti Robotics, including opportunities to have your humanoid robots in factory and commercial environments to gather data. As you think about that 2028 commercialization target you shared at CES, how important is that data collection and gathering for hitting that timeframe? Thank you.

    謝謝。我的另一個問題是關於Menti的。鑑於您與潛在客戶和行業參與者進行的溝通和交流,能否幫助我們更好地了解這些舉措在多大程度上激發了他們與Menti Robotics合作的興趣,包括將貴公司的人形機器人應用於工廠和商業環境以收集數據的機會?您在CES上提出的2028年商業化目標,對於達成此目標而言,資料收集與分析的重要性為何?謝謝。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • I think it's a very interesting question. We've had two weeks since the announcement at CES, and I've received reach-outs from A significant number of customers asking about our interest and readiness to support onsite pilots and food concepts and kind of starting from our industrialization partners that want to contribute in manufacturing and components because they understand we do the food robot. Starting from that and really trying to attract us to work with them for manufacturing and for all of our industrial partners, whether it's Tier 1s, OEMs, and others that want to see how they can work with Mobileye in integrating robots into their logistics centers, warehouses, manufacturing lines. The need is definitely there, and for them, it made perfect sense. I think one of the encouraging signs that we've seen is that already at CES, we've had meetings with OEMs, and in most of these meetings, it came up as, you know, let's take a follow-up and schedule when we can actually talk about a plan to deploy this in our environment. And I think that the fact that they know Mobileye from the automotive business and they trust the, you know, the standards of the company, and that they have a need for, in the longer term, you know, finding solutions for human labor that is becoming a bigger and bigger problem for them, especially in developed countries, this gives them an easier path to evaluate a new technology with a partner they trust, as opposed to working with a startup, you know, in human knowledge that, you know, who knows what you can get from them and whether or not they can deliver. and definitely we're leveraging these relationships. So we definitely think of this as an area to continue to develop in the next few months.

    我認為這是一個非常有趣的問題。自從CES發布以來已經過去兩週了,我收到了大量客戶的諮詢,詢問我們是否有興趣並準備好支持現場試點項目和食品概念。這些諮詢主要來自我們的工業化合作夥伴,他們希望在製造和零件方面做出貢獻,因為他們了解我們開發食品機器人。他們希望以此為起點,努力吸引我們與他們合作進行製造,同時也希望吸引我們所有的工業合作夥伴,包括一級供應商、OEM廠商以及其他希望了解如何與Mobileye合作,將機器人整合到他們的物流中心、倉庫和生產線中的企業。他們的需求確實存在,而且對他們來說,這完全合情合理。我認為我們看到的一個令人鼓舞的跡像是,在CES期間,我們已經與一些OEM廠商舉行了會議,在大多數會議中,他們都提出了後續跟進,併計劃何時討論在我們的環境中部署這項技術的方案。我認為,他們之所以了解Mobileye(一家汽車行業公司),是因為他們信任Mobileye的行業標準,而且從長遠來看,他們也需要找到解決勞動力短缺問題(尤其是在已開發國家,勞動力短缺問題日益嚴重),這使得他們更容易與值得信賴的合作夥伴一起評估新技術,而無需與一家新創公司合作。畢竟,在人力資源領域,誰也無法預料新創公司能提供什麼,以及他們是否能夠兌現承諾。我們當然會充分利用這些關係。因此,我們認為這將是未來幾個月需要繼續發展的領域。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Thank you. Thank you, Mark. Next question, please.

    謝謝。謝謝你,馬克。請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McNally, Evercore ISI.

    Chris McNally,Evercore ISI。

  • SPEAKER_10

    SPEAKER_10

  • Good morning. This is John Sanger on for Chris McNally. Thanks for taking the question. Amnon, you've made this sandwich analogy for ADAS and AV demand, basically with high demand first round at the low end or drive at the high end. If we could focus on just drive for the time being. You guys announced VW Moya, one of the two big partners, Marabeni, and an unnamed OEM. But the forecast is for a fleet of 100,000 AVs by 2033, obviously a bit of a ways away. So my question, can we get a sense for what the near-term demand for your driver system might be for just like the next two to three years, 27, 28, or on phase one for a growing, on the growing list of cities?

    早安.我是約翰桑格,代克里斯麥克納利。感謝您回答這個問題。阿姆農,您之前用三明治來比喻ADAS和自動駕駛汽車的需求,基本上是說,低端市場需求旺盛,而高端市場則需要駕駛技術。如果我們暫時只專注在駕駛技術的話。你們宣布了VW Moya(兩大合作夥伴之一)、Marabeni以及一家未透露姓名的OEM廠商。但預測2033年自動駕駛汽車保有量將達到10萬輛,顯然還有一段時間。所以我的問題是,我們能否了解一下你們的駕駛系統在未來兩到三年內(例如2027、2028年)的短期需求,或者說在第一階段,在越來越多的城市中的需求情況?

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we are now together with Moya, six cities, to expand to six cities in 2027, and that includes also Los Angeles, together with Uber, We have another high-volume program with the Holon that will come six months later, have also its expansion. As the CEO of ADMP on stage mentioned that they foresee about 100,000 vehicles in the next eight years. numbers of the rollout will depend on the success of 2027, the deployment of the first six cities. But we are talking about thousands of .

    所以我們現在與 Moya 合作,計劃在 2027 年將業務擴展到六個城市,其中包括洛杉磯,並與 Uber 合作。我們還有一個與 Holon 合作的高容量項目,將在六個月後啟動並擴展。正如 ADMP 的執行長在台上提到的,他們預計未來八年將有大約 10 萬輛汽車投入營運。最終的投放數量將取決於 2027 年首批六個城市的部署。但我們談論的是數千輛汽車。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • Just to add to this, I think, you know, it may be somewhat challenging to understand what it means, 100,000, because it sounds like a big number. I think what we're taking away from this, what it means is that Volkswagen has in place the manufacturing capacity to produce as many vehicles as needed. The 100,000, if we're successful in 2026 and 2027 and then in 2028, which we have high confidence in our chances, means that 100,000 can also be a small number in hindsight. The manufacturing capacity they have and the funding they've pulled into this in the past few years to build everything needed to produce robot axes in scale, eventually it's Volkswagen. So they can produce 10,000 per year, 50,000 per year, 75,000 per year. when the demand will be there. And the demand from mobility operators, TNCs, municipalities is far greater than tens of thousands per year globally. Once the technology gets to this maturity level and allows quick economic and geographic expansion, which we believe we have clear advantages in, then the demand will not be a problem. We have a partner that can scale and give the supply at the best extent possible.

    補充一點,我想,要理解「10萬」這個數字的含義可能有點難度,因為它聽起來很大。但我想我們從中得到的啟示是,大眾汽車擁有足夠的產能來生產所需的車輛數量。如果我們在2026年、2027年以及2028年都取得成功(我們對此非常有信心),那麼事後看來,10萬這個數字其實並不算多。大眾汽車擁有強大的生產能力,並且在過去幾年投入了大量資金來建造大規模生產機器人軸所需的一切設施。最終,福斯汽車能夠做到每年生產1萬輛、5萬輛甚至7.5萬輛,只要市場有需求。而全球範圍內,來自出行業者、叫車公司和市政當局的需求遠超過每年數萬輛。一旦這項技術發展到成熟階段,並能實現快速的經濟和地理擴張(我們相信我們在這方面具有明顯的優勢),那麼需求就不會成為問題。我們擁有一個能夠擴大規模並盡可能滿足供應需求的合作夥伴。

  • SPEAKER_10

    SPEAKER_10

  • Understood. And just how do we think about, like, the volume for a phase one launch? Like, should that be, like, 1,000 to, like, 1,500, like Waymo in San Francisco?

    明白了。那麼,我們該如何考慮第一階段的投放量呢?比如說,是不是應該像Waymo在舊金山那樣,投放1000到1500輛?

  • SPEAKER_14

    SPEAKER_14

  • You can think of it as a few hundred vehicles per city as a good testing, as a good measuring stick.

    你可以把它看作是每個城市幾百輛車的良好測試,一個很好的衡量標準。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • You know, just also seeing a Waymo rollout, that's roughly the numbers they've had. In some cities, it's 200. Some cities, it's close to 500. that's a sufficient number to kind of facilitate for the mobility demand in that city and also to build a meaningful business. And that's also roughly what we're planning.

    你知道,看看Waymo的推廣案例,他們的車輛數量也差不多是這樣。在某些城市,車輛數量是200輛,在一些城市接近500輛。這個數量足以滿足城市的出行需求,也能建立起有意義的業務。這和我們目前的計劃也大致相同。

  • SPEAKER_10

    SPEAKER_10

  • Thanks, John. Just one last follow-up. Do the AV customers pay for anything before the purchase of the $45,000 drive content, like R&D in advance? Or do you get any protection if their volumes are less than planned?

    謝謝,約翰。最後一個問題。 AV客戶在購買價值45,000美元的硬碟內容之前,是否需要支付任何費用,例如預付研發費用?或者,如果他們的實際購買量低於預期,你們是否會提供任何保障?

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • Without going into the details of our contracts, we are receiving, we're delivering samples and engineering samples throughout the year, and there is an engineering budget that covers the direct engineering costs and development costs. So there is definitely a good amount of investment well before the commercialization. So I think when we have high confidence in our chances of getting to driverless, I think we're not that concerned about the downside potential.

    我們不打算透露合約細節,但我們全年都在接收和交付樣品及工程樣品,而且我們還有一筆工程預算,涵蓋直接工程成本和研發成本。因此,在商業化之前,我們確實投入了大量資金。所以,我認為,當我們對實現無人駕駛充滿信心時,我們並不太擔心潛在的風險。

  • SPEAKER_14

    SPEAKER_14

  • Okay, thank you so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joseph Spak, UBS.

    約瑟夫‧斯帕克,瑞銀集團。

  • Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Hello, everyone. Just to maybe talk about a couple of more near-term things. Obviously, memory has become a larger issue and concern in the automotive industry, and I know or I believe you don't really buy a lot of that memory directly, but clearly it is used in the modules at your tier one customers to assemble, to sort of ship on to the OEMs. So I'm just curious what you're hearing from your customers and the supply chain as to whether this is really a pricing issue, is it an availability issue? Is there any sort of volume risk embedded in your outlook? Because even if it's a pricing issue, I guess, do you see any risk of decontenting?

    謝謝。大家好。我想再聊聊幾個近期的事情。顯然,記憶體問題在汽車產業越來越突出,也越來越令人擔憂。我知道你們可能不會直接採購大量的內存,但顯然你們的一級客戶會將這些內存用於模組組裝,然後再交付給OEM廠商。所以我很好奇你們從顧客和供應鏈中了解到的情況,這究竟是價格問題還是供貨問題?你們的預期中是否有任何銷售風險?因為即使是價格問題,你們是否也看到了任何減配記憶體的風險?

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • So, as you said, Joe, we're not – let's say the exposure that we have is not direct because we're not purchasing a lot of these units. It's mostly indirect through the fact that our Tier 1 customers are purchasing memory components. What we've been doing in the past few months, and we have been actively working on this well before it was a public knowledge that this dynamics is developing, is to create maximizing our supply of these components and working with multiple vendors to ensure that we have enough flexibility to kind of mitigate the direct cost impact from specific vendors. and that we will be able to ensure that vehicle manufacturing will not be impacted by these fluctuations. I think that, like we did last year, a forecast for this year is maybe opting for the conservative side. You can see the difference between Q1 and other quarters. It does bake in some level of understanding that there is some volatility in the industry, so we want it to be on the more conservative side. but we haven't seen any direct evidence or indication that there is an imminent change to volume as a consequence. But we will keep close monitoring on this as it develops and we're doing everything in our power with our tier one partners to create the availability of these components.

    正如你所說,喬,我們目前面臨的風險並非直接的,因為我們並沒有大量採購這些組件。風險主要來自我們的一級客戶採購記憶體組件這一間接因素。過去幾個月,我們一直在積極採取措施,而且早在這種趨勢公開之前,我們就已經開始著手優化這些組件的供應,並與多家供應商合作,以確保我們擁有足夠的靈活性,從而減輕特定供應商帶來的直接成本影響。這樣一來,我們就能確保汽車製造不會受到這些波動的影響。我認為,就像去年一樣,今年的預測可能也會比較保守。你可以看到第一季與其他季度之間的差異。這確實考慮到了產業存在一定的波動性,所以我們希望預測結果會更加保守。但我們尚未看到任何直接證據或跡象表明銷量會因此而發生即將發生的變化。但我們將密切關注事態發展,並正與我們的一級合作夥伴一起竭盡全力確保這些組件的供應。

  • Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you. The second question, just on, you mentioned some of the appreciation of the shackle and I know you get very helpful exposure in your 10Qs on what a change in that currency can do to your cost base. But I believe also like at this time a year ago or earlier in 25, you made a comment on one of the calls about how a lot of the costs on the shekel were hedged. Did something change with the hedging strategy? Like maybe you could just sort of update us on sort of why it's a little bit maybe more of an issue now than you thought a year ago.

    謝謝。第二個問題,您剛才提到了謝克爾匯率波動的影響,我知道您在10-Q報告中詳細闡述了該貨幣匯率變動對成本基礎的影響。但我記得大概一年前,或者更早的時候,您在一次電話會議上提到過,很多與謝克爾相關的成本都進行了對沖。現在對沖策略是否有所改變?您能否簡要說明一下,為什麼現在這個問題比您一年前預想的更加突出?

  • SPEAKER_01

    SPEAKER_01

  • Yeah, so I will start with 2025.

    是的,那我就從2025年開始吧。

  • Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

    Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

  • So we have a hedging plan that basically calls that we can meet our OpEx expectation for 2025. So for example, for the second half of 2025, the rate that we had in our financials was like 5% or 6% favorable than the average market rate. And these are transactions that we made in the beginning of 2025. But as the appreciation of the shekel continues into 2026, and we're talking about, I think, 10% or 12% in the last year, We still have hedging in place for 2026, so we are more than 50% hedged on our payroll expenses at a favorable rate. But the risk is obviously heavier as the duration gets bigger, but we took it into account in our guidance. So we took into account some further hedging, but it would be at a less favorable rate. The fact that we are already more than 50% hedged, I think we're in a good place in terms of the rate, but it's still the year-on-year impact because it's a significant impact. It's worth mentioning.

    因此,我們制定了一項對沖計劃,旨在確保我們能夠達到2025年的營運支出預期。例如,在2025年下半年,我們財務報表中的利率比市場平均利率優惠5%到6%。這些交易是在2025年初完成的。但隨著謝克爾升值持續到2026年,我們預期去年的升值幅度將達到10%到12%。儘管如此,我們仍然為2026年制定了對沖策略,因此我們以優惠利率對沖了超過50%的薪資支出。但隨著期限的延長,風險顯然也會增加,我們在業績指引中已考慮到了這一點。因此,我們考慮進行進一步的對沖,但利率會略低一些。鑑於我們已經對沖了超過50%的風險,我認為就利率而言,我們處於有利地位,但同比影響仍然值得關注,因為這影響巨大。這一點值得一提。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. Appreciate it. Thank you, Jo. Next question, please.

    好的,謝謝。這很有幫助,非常感謝。謝謝你,喬。下一個問題好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.

    Aaron Rakers,富國銀行。

  • Aaron Rakers - Analyst

    Aaron Rakers - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I want to kind of double-click on the Porsche and VW and the Audi kind of programs. I'm curious as you kind of thought about your guidance for this year, I think the initial expectation was maybe early volumes on Porsche late this year. Just give me an update on where we stand on some of those programs and how we should think about volumes, appreciating that I think 2026 in the past has been more characterized as an execution year.

    是的,謝謝您回答這個問題。我想重點談談保時捷、大眾和奧迪的項目。我很好奇,當您在製定今年的業績預期時,最初預計保時捷的銷售量會在今年稍後開始成長。請您介紹一下這些項目目前的進展情況,以及我們應該如何看待銷量,我知道以往2026年通常被視為一個執行年。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So 2026 is an execution year. The supervision on Porsche and Audi should start Q1 next year, Q1 2027. There was some pushback of deadlines unrelated to US that pushed the SOP to the first quarter of 2027.

    因此,2026年是執行年。對保時捷和奧迪的監管工作應該從明年第一季或2027年第一季開始。一些與美國無關的截止日期被推遲,導致標準作業程序(SOP)推遲到2027年第一季。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • Just to say that it didn't really change the plans of the project. It's just a one-month change between December 26 to February 27. So it's not really material. And we made clear in previous calls as well that we did not expect meaningful volumes from these programs in 2026.

    需要說明的是,這並沒有真正改變專案的計劃。只是從12月26日到2月27日這一個月的時間變動而已。所以這無關緊要。而且我們在之前的電話會議中也明確表示過,我們預計這些項目在2026年不會產生顯著的成果。

  • SPEAKER_16

    SPEAKER_16

  • Right. Right.

    對。對。

  • Aaron Rakers - Analyst

    Aaron Rakers - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. And then as a quick follow-up, in the prepared comments, you talked about inventory levels at your customers, your major OEMs being fairly lean. I know you've guided 10 million IQ units this quarter. I'm just curious, can you kind of, you know, go a little bit deeper on what you're seeing as far as the inventory levels your customers are holding? And, you know, do you expect any replenishment when you gave the unit expectations for this year? Or is it more, you know, lean inventories continue? I'm just curious on how you kind of baked that into your guidance. Thank you.

    非常感謝。接下來我想快速問一個問題,您在準備好的評論中提到,您的主要OEM客戶的庫存水平相當低。我知道您預測本季IQ單元的銷售將達到1000萬台。我很好奇,您能否更詳細地談談您觀察到的客戶庫存水準?您在給出今年的銷售預期時,是否預期會有補貨?還是說庫存水準會繼續保持低位?我很好奇您是如何將這些因素納入您的預測中的。謝謝。

  • SPEAKER_01

    SPEAKER_01

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

    Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

  • So I think for what we're seeing, and I mentioned it also in the remarks, we're seeing increased demand in terms of order flow. So 2025 ended higher than expectation. 2026 is constantly increasing in terms of production. What happened specifically in Q4 was also that the orders were relatively low in the first place, as December is a slow month in ordering. It's a short month with holidays, et cetera. So it was low, and then production level came up even higher. So it basically means that we believe the inventory levels that our customers are not reaching their inventory target at the end of 2025. So they are tighter than usual. And it has some impact on Q1. But again, we're also seeing very good demand. The 2026 production levels are going up. But yeah, Q1 does have some impact of Q4 low volume combined with heavier or bigger demand

    所以我認為,就我們目前所見(我在之前的發言中也提到過),訂單量方面的需求正在增加。 2025 年的訂單量高於預期。 2026 年的產量也持續成長。第四季的情況比較特殊,因為訂單量原本就比較低,畢竟 12 月是訂單淡季,而且假日較多,所以訂單量較低,而產量卻進一步提升。這意味著我們認為客戶的庫存水準在 2025 年底無法達到預期目標,比平常更緊張。這會對第一季的業績產生一定影響。但同時,我們也看到需求非常強勁,2026 年的產量也不斷成長。所以,第一季的業績確實會受到第四季低銷量和更大需求的影響。

  • SPEAKER_17

    SPEAKER_17

  • Thank you. Thank you, Erin.

    謝謝。謝謝你,艾琳。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

    餘生愛迪生,德意志銀行。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking our questions. I want to follow up on , can you give us a sense of what are the next steps with some of these customers you're talking with? I know you mentioned proof of concept. Are you going to basically ship maybe a few units, and then if that turns out well, you'll ship you know, 30, 40, and then much more. How do we think about that, those kind of next steps to commercialization?

    您好。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想跟進一下,能否簡要介紹一下您與這些客戶洽談的下一步計劃?我知道您提到了概念驗證。您打算先交付少量產品,如果效果不錯,再逐步增加交付量,例如30台、40台,甚至更多?我們該如何看待這些商業化過程中的後續步驟?

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I believe that 2026 is going to be maybe high tens of units in terms of POTs. 2027 should be more and 2028 should be even further. 2027 we go also into the with a production partner. So 2026 is terms of the unit. What we would like also is to have, in addition to the POCs, also to produce more units for the sake of Mobileye to start experimenting with robots, not only maintain themselves. But again, it's going to be a high double-digit number of robots in 2026.

    我認為,2026 年的 POT 數量可能達到幾十台。 2027 年應該會更多,2028 年應該會更多。 2027 年我們也會與一家生產合作夥伴合作。所以,2026 年的產量指的是數量。除了 POC 之外,我們還希望能夠生產更多設備,以便 Mobileye 開始進行機器人實驗,而不僅僅是維持自身運作。但再次強調,2026 年的機器人數量將達到兩位數。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • And maybe just to add, from the viewpoint of the customers in these pilots, the purpose is to start with a smaller amount of robots that perform specific tasks with their kind of outlining. And you just go to the logistics center, for example, and there is a few shelves with boxes. And human beings today are moving boxes according to their instructions and so forth. and basically want to see how robots can perform over a certain period of time, what's the precision, you know, reliability, durability, maintenance, and so on. And, you know, gradually afterwards, expand this to more and more tasks and larger volumes. You know, we are talking about companies that employ tens of thousands of employees today in these types of positions. So I think, again, going to be a question of supply. and that's why it's so important to have a manufacturing partner, as Amnon said, that already in 27 is able to produce robots in a serious production manner, which is important both for costs and also for scale.

    或許還需要補充一點,從這些試點計畫的客戶角度來看,其目的是先從少量機器人入手,這些機器人按照既定的路線執行特定任務。例如,您可以去物流中心看看,那裡有一些貨架,上面擺放著箱子。目前,搬運箱子的都是人工,他們按照指示進行操作等等。他們主要想看看機器人在一段時間內的表現如何,例如精度、可靠性、耐用性、維護成本等等。之後,再逐步擴大任務範圍,增加工作量。要知道,我們現在談論的是那些在這些崗位上僱用了數萬名員工的公司。所以我認為,供應問題依然存在。正如阿姆農所說,擁有一個製造合作夥伴至關重要,這個合作夥伴必須在27年就具備大規模生產機器人的能力,這對於控製成本和擴大規模都至關重要。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Understood, appreciate the color. A follow-up on RoboTaxi. Obviously there's a lot of excitement coming out of CS. Has your view on owning more of the, should we say, ecosystem change at all? And that's just in the context of you obviously have a lot of parties involved. Could that kind of hinder the speed of deployment or some of the logistical aspects? And obviously, it would require capital, but I think that's not that big of an issue anymore. Thanks.

    明白了,很喜歡這個顏色。關於RoboTaxi,我想跟進一下。顯然,CS領域對此感到非常興奮。您對擁有更多(或者說,整個生態系統)的所有權有什麼看法?考慮到涉及的方很多,這是否會阻礙部署速度或某些物流方面的工作?當然,這需要資金,但我認為這已經不是什麼大問題了。謝謝。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think that the current arrangements we have with the Volkswagen and the Moya is really optimized for volume of the deployment. So going right now more vertically integrated is not going to increase the volume of the deployment. This is something perhaps to be considered towards the end of the decade or further than that. I think what we have in place is really optimal to where Mobileye is at. Mobileye will be producing the self-driving system at the Tier 1, taking responsibility not only for the electronics but also for the sensors, of course, the software stack and all the validation. And the revenue per vehicle plus the recurring revenue per mile is very, very attractive. The focus is execution now.

    我認為我們目前與大眾和Moya的合作模式已經針對大規模部署進行了最佳化。因此,現在進一步垂直整合並不會提高部署規模。這或許應該在十年末或更晚的時候再考慮。我認為我們目前的模式對於Mobileye來說已經非常理想了。 Mobileye將作為一級供應商生產自動駕駛系統,不僅負責電子元件,當然也負責感測器、軟體堆疊以及所有驗證工作。每輛車的收入加上每英里的經常性收入都非常誘人。現在的重點是執行。

  • SPEAKER_17

    SPEAKER_17

  • Thank you very much. Thank you, Erickson.

    非常感謝。謝謝你,埃里克森。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

    Tom Narayan,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, guys. The first one I have is on the 26, I guess, adjusted operating expenses. I think you guys said it's up $100 million. And I know that FX was mentioned, other issues. But then the one that I'm wondering if that's the biggest piece of it is the mentee R&D, or maybe it's consolidating mentees if it's operating at a loss. Just curious how we should think about that OpEx going higher. What's really the biggest driver of that? And I've got to follow up.

    非常感謝各位。我的第一個問題是關於26號調整後的營運費用。你們之前說過增加了1億美元。我知道匯率和其他一些因素也提到了。但我比較疑惑的是,這其中最大的部分是不是學員的研發支出,或者說,如果學員的研發支出處於虧損狀態,那麼合併學員的研發支出也是原因之一。我只是好奇,我們該如何看待營運費用上漲這件事?真正導致營運費用上漲的最大驅動因素是什麼?我還需要跟進一下。

  • Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

    Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, so I think I've mentioned that we have incorporated Menti R&D into our guidance. So the guidance includes, in terms of operating expenses, mainly 5% of regular inflation enhancement or , and the additional portion is Menti R&D. So these are the significant two items. I also mentioned we have also a headwind The ethics rate, but that is mostly offset by the efficiencies initiatives we did in Q4. So, hope that answered your question.

    好的,我想我已經提到過,我們已將Menti的研發投入納入了業績指引。因此,就營運費用而言,指引主要包括5%的常規通膨調整,以及額外的Menti研發投入。這是兩個重要的項目。我還提到,我們也面臨道德稅率的不利因素,但這在很大程度上被我們在第四季實施的效率提升措施所抵消。希望我的回答能解答您的問題。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Yeah, just to follow up, I mean, I think that's pretty clear, but just to follow up, like, you know, we do expect to have normal OpEx inflation per year of around 5%. This relates to salary and benefit, inflation, as well as additional infrastructure to support the AV activities and the advanced product activities. That's normal. On top of that, this year, we are assuming consolidation of the mentee R&D expenses. We talked about that as somewhere in the lower single digits, but probably think towards 4% type of thing. And additionally, we do have This FX headwind, which is mostly offset by the workforce initiative we did in the fourth quarter, but not completely. So that should give you a decent walk from 2025 to 2026.

    是的,我再補充一下。我的意思是,我覺得這一點已經很清楚了,但還是想再強調一下,我們預計每年的營運支出通膨率在5%左右。這包括薪資福利、通膨,以及支持自動駕駛汽車業務和先進產品業務所需的額外基礎設施。這是正常的。此外,今年我們假設學員研發費用會合併。我們之前討論過這部分費用會控制在個位數,但可能要考慮在4%左右。另外,我們確實面臨匯率波動的不利影響,雖然第四季的人力資源計畫在很大程度上抵消了這部分影響,但並沒有完全消除。所以,從2025年到2026年,這些因素應該可以確保一定的成長空間。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think you described it quite accurately, but take into account that also growing in terms of being in a Tier 1 position with our programs with Porsche and Audi and Drive. And sometimes you need to make adjustments in terms of increasing your headcount. Again, this is non-material compared to the overall OpEx, but it adds a few percentage. So take the walkthrough that you mentioned, which was quite accurate, an accurate percentage of growth that we need to account for when we are taking a Tier 1 position and investing heavily into the future. So two years ago, we calculated our OpEx growth, but we cannot be precise to the single percent in an area which is experiencing rapid growth.

    是的,我認為你描述得相當準確,但也要考慮到,隨著我們與保時捷、奧迪和Drive的合作項目躋身一級供應商行列,我們的業務也在不斷發展壯大。有時,我們需要調整人員配置。當然,這部分成長相對於整體營運支出而言微不足道,但也會占到幾個百分點。所以,就像你剛才提到的分析一樣,非常準確,它準確地指出了我們在晉升一級供應商並對未來進行大量投資時需要考慮的成長百分比。兩年前,我們計算過營運支出的成長,但在一個快速成長的領域,我們無法精確到百分之一。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • And for a follow-up on Menti, and I know this is very early to ask this question, but I mean, look, we're seeing the market's reaction to the potential news from Hyundai with Boston Dynamics and the credit that Hyundai is getting. Is this something you guys might think about in maybe the distant future, I don't know, about trying to crystallize the value? Right now there's so much appetite for the capital market, certainly. Is this something you could consider monetizing, Menti in some way, or do you believe that together as a combined entity, that's how you kind of view the business?

    關於Menti,我想追問一下。我知道現在問這個問題可能有點早,但你看,我們看到市場對現代汽車收購波士頓動力公司以及現代汽車獲得的信貸額度的反應。你們是否會在不久的將來考慮如何實現Menti的價值?目前資本市場對這方面的需求非常強勁。你們是否會考慮以某種方式將Menti變現?還是你們認為合併後的公司本身就有價值?

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think that the market is taking some time to internalize the news of the acquisition or the news of Mobileye entering into Humanoid. I do believe that in some near future, this would create the dividends, the like of what happened between Hyundai and Boston Dynamics. has all the potential to make big steps forward has demonstrated quite a mature technology, as the clips that I have shown and the clips that they have on their website. And together with Mobileye, they can make rapid steps forward. Now, whether we're going to see this dividend in a month or whether we're going to see this in a year, I don't know, but it has the potential to catalyze the same benefits that Hyundai is receiving from Samsung Dynamics.

    我認為市場需要一些時間來消化此次收購或Mobileye進軍Humanoid的消息。我相信在不久的將來,這將帶來類似現代汽車收購波士頓動力公司的回報。 Humanoid擁有巨大的發展潛力,其技術已經相當成熟,正如我所展示的影片以及他們網站上的影片所示。與Mobileye的合作將使他們能夠快速發展。至於我們會在一個月內看到回報,還是一年後看到回報,我並不確定,但它確實有可能帶來與現代汽車從三星動力公司收購Humanoid類似的收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

    科林魯什,奧本海默。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, guys. You know, can you talk a little bit about the near-term pricing dynamics on IQ? Just curious, you know, how much movement there really is as you see some of these larger volumes move through in the first part of the year and how we should think about that trend into the balance.

    非常感謝各位。可以談談IQ近期的價格走勢嗎?我很好奇,隨著今年上半年成交量較大,價格究竟會有多大的波動,以及我們該如何看待這種趨勢對整體市場的影響。

  • SPEAKER_14

    SPEAKER_14

  • So, maybe if you refer to the IQ prices, let me just make sure I'm --

    所以,如果你指的是智商價格,那我先確認我的意思——

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • or prices. I didn't get the question.

    或價格。我沒聽懂這個問題。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • I'm concerned about pricing as you ship the higher volume here and then how the pricing transfers the balance of the year as you normalize that.

    我擔心的是,隨著你們這裡出貨量增大,價格會如何變化,以及在你們逐步調整價格以適應全年需求的過程中,價格會如何變化。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • Yeah, so the pricing every year is affected by the mix of IQs. And as you know, the IQs have different generations with different software features and software packages. And this has somewhat of a different price, but overall, on average, There's no, let's say, meaningful change in the prices. There is a different mix this year compared to last year, as said in your remarks. So we see higher volumes of IQ5-based ADAS products, and IQ5 has somewhat of a higher cost, but still it's advanced products with, you know, meaningful volumes this year compared to last year. So this does have some impact, but it's all natural mix.

    是的,所以每年的價格都會受到IQ車型組合的影響。如您所知,IQ車型有不同的代數,不同的版本擁有不同的軟體功能和軟體套件。這在一定程度上會影響價格,但總體而言,平均價格並沒有顯著變化。正如您剛才所說,今年的車型組合與去年有所不同。我們看到基於IQ5的ADAS產品銷售量較高,而IQ5的價格也略高一些,但它仍然是先進的產品,今年的銷售量與去年相比顯著成長。所以這確實會產生一些影響,但這完全是自然而然的車型組合變化。

  • Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

    Moran Rojansky - Chief Financial Officer

  • And also the section chip that I mentioned. The second chip that I mentioned combined, the fact that the second chip is at a lower price than the first one, so it's higher gross profit per vehicle, but lower ASP. I think that the combined natural mix that Nimrod mentioned and second chip impacts is approximately like 80 cents or so, year-on-year.

    還有我之前提到的那個晶片。我提到的第二個晶片,由於價格比第一個晶片低,所以每輛車的毛利更高,但平均售價更低。我認為,Nimrod提到的自然組合因素加上第二個晶片的影響,每年大約會造成80美分左右的利潤損失。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, but just to clarify, this second chip, or the car has two IT4 chips, this is a one-off things. It's not that we see a trend having two IQ chips in the car with one of the IQ chips at the discounted price. This is what we call a bridge. This is a bridge towards IQ6 price. The carmaker wanted to meet certain regulatory environment that IQ4 alone could not meet. Therefore, a second IQ4 was added. But again, this is a one-off. We don't expect it to be a trend.

    是的,但需要澄清的是,這第二顆晶片,或者說這輛車配備了兩顆IT4晶片,這只是個特例。我們不認為在車上配備兩顆IQ晶片,其中一顆以折扣價出售,會成為一種趨勢。我們稱之為過渡方案,是向IQ6價格過渡的途徑。汽車製造商為了滿足某些僅靠IQ4無法滿足的監管要求,所以增加了一顆IQ4晶片。但再次強調,這只是個特例,我們預期不會成為一種趨勢。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys. And as you think about doing the driver demonstration here later this year, can you talk about the regulatory process and any bottlenecks or hurdles that are still remaining here, things that are of concern that you guys are focused on getting ready to do that demonstration?

    好的,太好了。謝謝各位。鑑於你們計劃今年稍後在這裡進行駕駛員演示,能否談談監管流程以及仍然存在的任何瓶頸或障礙,以及你們在準備演示過程中重點關注的事項?

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, in the U.S., it's self-certification. We have stringent KPIs in terms of that we are meeting towards going driverless. Outside of the U.S., there's homologation, and as we mentioned, together with Volkswagen, homologation will occur in 2027 outside of the U.S. But nothing on a regional basis or city basis that you guys are concerned about? No, we don't see. Actually, the homologation in Europe will have a strong tailwind, given that the vehicles are produced by Volkswagen, Level 4 vehicles, and our cooperation together with AD&T and Moira and Volkswagen will allow us to go through the homologation in a much easier way than if we were doing it alone.

    在美國,我們採用的是自我認證。我們在實現無人駕駛方面設定了嚴格的KPI。在美國以外,則需要進行認證。正如我們之前提到的,我們將與大眾汽車合作,在2027年完成美國以外地區的認證。但是,你們是否擔心任何區域或城市層面的問題?沒有,我們並不擔心。事實上,考慮到這些車輛是由大眾汽車生產的L4級自動駕駛汽車,而且我們與AD&T、Moira以及大眾汽車的合作將使我們能夠比單獨進行認證更加順利地完成認證流程,因此在歐洲的認證將迎來強勁的順風。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • And this is a significant entry barrier to the European markets as it involves a lot of activities and direct engagements with regulatory bodies that we are already doing with Volkswagen. So getting this approval in 2027, as Amir mentioned, will also separate us in the European market from others.

    這構成了進入歐洲市場的一大障礙,因為它涉及大量活動以及與監管機構的直接溝通,而這些正是我們目前與大眾汽車正在進行的工作。正如阿米爾所提到的,如果能在2027年獲得這項批准,也將使我們在歐洲市場中脫穎而出。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Yeah, it's an important point. And just to clarify on the timing of homologation, we're saying that it will be completed in 2027 and start in 2026. The six cities commercialized in 2027 that Volkswagen talked about include some European cities, which is going to require the homologation process to be completed.

    是的,這一點很重要。關於認證時間安排,我們想澄清一下,認證工作將於2027年完成,並於2026年開始。大眾汽車提到的2027年將在六個城市上市,其中包括一些歐洲城市,這需要完成認證流程。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it. Thank you, Colin.

    非常感謝各位。感激不盡。謝謝你,科林。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

    (操作說明)Joshua Buchalter,TD Cowen。

  • Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

    Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

  • Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions, I guess both at once. I guess to start, you know, you highlighted the potential for conversions on surround aid assets here, but you haven't made the same comments about supervision and chauffeur. Are those, you know, maybe you can provide an update there. Are you guys de-emphasizing that in your go-to-market and conversations with customers? And then for my follow-up that's, you know, on a completely unrelated topic, and more. Amnon, you've touched on this in the CES presentation, but I was hoping you could provide some more details about, you know, specifically how your IQ roadmap is going to accelerate mentees' time to market and perhaps as important, you know, how much software development is needed to move further into robotics, you know, given IQ's designed specifically for autos.

    大家好,感謝你們回答我的問題,我想一次問兩個問題。首先,你們強調了環繞輔助設備的潛在轉換率,但你們沒有提到監督和駕駛員服務。你們能否就此提供一些最新資訊?你們是否在市場推廣和與客戶的溝通中淡化了這方面的重點?其次,還有一個完全無關的後續問題。 Amnon,你在CES演講中提到過這一點,但我希望你能提供更多細節,特別是關於你們的IQ路線圖將如何加快學員的產品上市速度,以及同樣重要的是,考慮到IQ是專門為汽車設計的,要進一步拓展到機器人領域,需要多少軟體開發工作。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • Thank you. We have multiple engagements also on supervision, so there's definitely an active engagement there with the market. Just to put things in perspective, our relationship with Volkswagen Group with the different brands on these products started maybe in 2021. And it took us a couple of years to cross all the items that is needed. And we are also focused now on opportunities that have a meaningful business potential. as opposed to smaller scientific projects that some OEMs are trying to explore. Maybe in some cases it's in-house development that they're doing, and they want to allocate one car in the future and see if it works. We're trying to focus on opportunities that present significant volumes, multiple vehicle models with concrete timelines so that we can scale the products. We're not looking for the first opportunity. We want to kind of scale, and we have several of those. I don't want to predict timing, but we are encouraged by the activities.

    謝謝。我們在監管方面也有多項合作,所以我們與市場的互動非常正面。簡單來說,我們與大眾集團旗下不同品牌在這些產品上的合作始於2021年左右。我們花了幾年時間才完成所有必要的環節。現在,我們專注於具有實際商業潛力的機會,而不是一些OEM廠商正在探索的小型科學研究計畫。有些OEM廠商可能正在進行內部研發,他們想在未來推出一款車型,看看效果如何。而我們則專注於那些能夠帶來可觀銷售、涵蓋多種車型且有明確時間表的機會,以便我們能夠擴大產品規模。我們並不急於尋找第一個機會,而是希望逐步擴大規模,而我們目前就有幾個這樣的機會。我不想預測具體時間,但我們對目前的進展感到鼓舞。

  • Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Amnon Shashua - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We feel that it's too early to talk about IQ chips on humanoid robots. We think this is a longer-term, this is a longer-horizon issue. Currently, the robots are based on NVIDIA chips, and we see that we are very proud of that relationship. and we see that going on for the foreseeable future. Now, when we go into really high-volume production where every cent counts, then I think IQ8, IQ9 could be quite relevant, but it's not in the foreseeable future.

    我們認為現在談論人形機器人的IQ晶片還為時過早。我們認為這是一個更長遠、更具前瞻性的問題。目前,我們的機器人採用的是NVIDIA晶片,我們為這種合作關係感到非常自豪,並且預計這種合作關係在可預見的未來仍將持續。當然,當我們真正進入大規模生產階段,每一分錢都至關重要的時候,我認為IQ8和IQ9晶片可能會發揮重要作用,但這在可預見的未來還不會發生。

  • SPEAKER_17

    SPEAKER_17

  • Okay, thank you both.

    好的,謝謝你們兩位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

    (操作說明)薩米克‧查特吉,摩根大通。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking my question. This is MP on for Simic Chatterjee. My first one would be, like, since you said that Porsche and Audi programs are now pushed out to 1Q27, will Drive or Robotaxi be the biggest swing factor for 2026 revenues? And on that itself, like, Any updated thoughts on the monetization for Drive in terms of up-front revenues versus recurring consumption-based revenues? And for my follow-up, I wanted to ask on the second customer, you said that there could be a potential decision for the second architecture with this customer in one queue. If that happens, will that potentially double your pipeline with that customer? That's it. Thank you.

    您好。感謝您回答我的問題。我是 Simic Chatterjee 的 MP。我的第一個問題是,既然您提到保時捷和奧迪的專案現在推遲到 2027 年第一季度,那麼 Drive 或 Robotaxi 會是影響 2026 年營收的最大因素嗎?關於 Drive,您對它的獲利模式有什麼新的想法嗎?是選擇預付收入還是基於消費的經常性收入?我的後續問題是,關於第二個客戶,您提到該客戶可能會在同一個佇列中做出關於第二種架構的決策。如果是這樣,這是否會使該客戶的潛在客戶數量增加一倍?以上就是我的問題。謝謝。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • MP, the answer to your first question is that we did not expect any meaningful impact from the advanced products in 2026. We've been saying that for the last several quarters. So there's no change related to what you talked about.

    MP,關於你的第一個問題,我們的回答是,我們預期先進產品在2026年不會產生任何實質影響。過去幾季我們一直這樣說。所以,你提到的內容沒有任何變化。

  • SPEAKER_13

    SPEAKER_13

  • And we did not account for drive revenue in 2026 guidance. So it's not in the guidance. Regarding the second question on the second design for SWAN ADAS, so the discussions are obviously ongoing, and we are making good progress, and again, don't want to go into predicting time, but we continue to work on this, and it's progressing.

    我們在2026年的業績指引中並未考慮驅動收入,因此它不包含在指引中。關於第二個問題,即SWAN ADAS的第二套設計方案,討論顯然仍在進行中,我們取得了良好的進展。再次強調,我們不想預測具體時間,但我們會繼續推進這項工作,而且它正在取得進展。

  • SPEAKER_17

    SPEAKER_17

  • Thank you, MP.

    謝謝你,議員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Galves for closing comments.

    謝謝。現在,我想把發言權交還給加爾維斯先生,請他作總結發言。

  • Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

    Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer

  • Thanks everyone for tuning in to our earnings call and we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you very much.

    感謝各位收聽我們的財報電話會議,我們下個季度再見。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

    女士們、先生們,感謝各位的參與。今天的活動到此結束。您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播,祝您一天愉快。