Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Christina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the MediaAlpha Q3 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。我叫克里斯蒂娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 MediaAlpha 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the floor over to Denise Garcia, Investor Relations. Denise, you may begin your conference.

現在我想請投資者關係部門的丹尼斯·加西亞 (Denise Garcia) 發言。丹尼斯，你可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you, Christina. After the market closed today, MediaAlpha issued a press release and shareholder letter announcing results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. These documents are available in the Investors section of our website, and we will be referring to them on this call.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。今天收盤後，MediaAlpha 發布了一份新聞稿和股東信函，宣布截至2023 年9 月30 日的第三季業績。這些文件可在我們網站的投資者部分找到，我們將在本次電話會議上提及它們。

Our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our business and our outlook for future financial results including our financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from those reflected in those statements.

我們今天的討論將包括有關我們業務的前瞻性陳述以及我們對未來財務業績的展望，包括我們對 2023 年第四季度的財務指引，這些指引基於管理層目前掌握的假設、預測、預期和資訊。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致未來結果或事件與這些陳述中反映的結果或事件有重大差異。

Please refer to the company's SEC filings, including its annual report on Form 10-K and its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for a fuller explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions as of today, November 1, 2023, and the company undertakes no obligation to revise or update them.

請參閱該公司向 SEC 提交的文件，包括 10-K 表中的年度報告和 10-Q 表中的季度報告，以更全面地解釋這些風險和不確定性以及適用於前瞻性陳述的限制。這些前瞻性陳述是基於截至今天（2023 年 11 月 1 日）的假設，本公司不承擔修改或更新這些陳述的義務。

In addition, on today's call, we will be referring to certain actual and projected financial metrics with MediaAlpha that are presented on a non-GAAP basis, including adjusted EBITDA, which we present in order to supplement your understanding and assessment of our financial performance.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將提及MediaAlpha 的某些實際和預測的財務指標，這些指標是在非GAAP 基礎上提出的，包括調整後的EBITDA，我們提出這些指標是為了補充您對我們財務業績的理解和評估。

Non-GAAP measures should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our press release and shareholder letter issued today.

非公認會計原則措施不應被視為替代或優於根據公認會計原則計算的財務措施。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節包含在我們今天發布的新聞稿和股東信中。

Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that this call is being reported and will be made available for replay via a link on the Investors section of the company's website at investors.mediaalpha.com.

最後，我想提醒大家，這次電話會議正在被報道，並將透過公司網站 Investors 部分的連結進行重播，網址為 Investors.mediaalpha.com。

Now I'll turn the call over to Steve and Pat for a few introductory remarks before opening the call to your questions.

現在，我將把電話轉給史蒂夫和帕特，讓他們做一些介紹性發言，然後再開始回答你們的問題。

Thank you so much, Denise. Hi, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'd like to make a few observations before turning the call over to our CFO, Pat Thompson, for his comments.

非常感謝你，丹妮絲。大家好。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在將電話轉給我們的財務長帕特·湯普森徵求意見之前，我想先發表一些意見。

We continue to execute well in a difficult market environment. Our third quarter results came in at or above the high end of our guidance range due to strong top line growth and profitability in our health insurance vertical. For the fourth quarter, we expect our health transaction value to be roughly flat year-over-year as continued strength in our under 65 segment is offset by near-term weakness in Medicare as the industry adapts to recent regulatory changes.

我們在困難的市場環境中繼續表現出色。由於健康保險垂直領域強勁的營收成長和獲利能力，我們第三季的業績達到或高於指導範圍的高端。對於第四季度，我們預計我們的健康交易價值將與去年同期大致持平，因為隨著行業適應最近的監管變化，醫療保險的近期疲軟抵消了 65 歲以下細分市場的持續強勢。

Q3 results in our P&C insurance vertical were in line with our expectations as carriers have maintained consistent levels of advertising spend since June. While we expect P&C advertising spend to remain at or near current levels through the remainder of the year, we're encouraged by the industry's improving underwriting profitability and continue to expect a broader market recovery to take hold in 2024.

我們的財產與意外保險垂直領域的第三季業績符合我們的預期，因為保險公司自 6 月以來一直保持一致的廣告支出水準。雖然我們預計財產和意外傷害廣告支出在今年剩餘時間內將保持在或接近當前水平，但我們對該行業承保盈利能力的改善感到鼓舞，並繼續預計 2024 年將出現更廣泛的市場復甦。

Looking forward, our immediate focus is on delivering solid results in our health vertical during the current open and annual enrollment periods. Longer term, our objective remains to capitalize on the significant growth opportunities presented by the insurance industry's ongoing shift to digital customer acquisition, and we remain confident in our ability to drive significant top and bottom line growth in the years to come.

展望未來，我們目前的重點是在當前開放和年度招生期間在我們的健康垂直領域取得紮實的成果。從長遠來看，我們的目標仍然是利用保險業持續向數位化客戶獲取轉變所帶來的重大成長機會，並且我們仍然對我們在未來幾年推動營收和利潤顯著增長的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Pat.

這樣，我就把電話轉給帕特。

Thanks, Steve. I'll begin with a few comments on our third quarter financial results and other recent business and market developments before reviewing our fourth quarter financial guidance and opening the call up for questions.

謝謝，史蒂夫。在回顧我們的第四季度財務指引並開始提問之前，我將首先對我們第三季度的財務表現以及其他近期業務和市場發展發表一些評論。

As Steve mentioned earlier, our third quarter results were at or above the high end of the guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, increasing $1.4 million year-over-year despite a 26% or $38 million decline in transaction value, with the annual growth driven by continued expense discipline.

正如史蒂夫之前提到的，我們第三季的業績達到或高於指導範圍的高端。儘管交易價值下降了 26%（即 3800 萬美元），但調整後 EBITDA 超出了預期，同比增長了 140 萬美元，而年度增長是由持續的費用控制推動的。

Transaction value in our P&C insurance vertical was down 46% year-over-year, in line with our expectations. This carrier has continued to focus on restoring underwriting profitability over acquiring new customers.

我們的財產與意外保險垂直領域的交易價值年減 46%，符合我們的預期。該承運人繼續專注於恢復承保盈利能力而不是獲取新客戶。

In our health insurance vertical, we had another quarter of strong growth as transaction value grew 11% year-over-year, in line with expectations.

在我們的健康保險垂直領域，我們又實現了一個季度的強勁成長，交易價值年增 11%，符合預期。

Moving to fourth quarter guidance. We expect another quarter of positive year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth as the impact of expense discipline and higher gross margins more than offsets the impact of continued headwinds in our P&C vertical.

轉向第四季指引。我們預計，調整後的 EBITDA 同比將再出現一個季度的正增長，因為費用紀律和毛利率上升的影響將足以抵消財產和意外險行業持續不利因素的影響。

In P&C, we expect the impact of seasonality to be muted with transaction value dollars to be similar to third quarter levels. In Health, we expect transaction value growth to be roughly flat year-over-year for the reasons Steve noted earlier. As a reminder, the fourth quarter typically represents about 40% of full year transaction value in our health vertical due to the timing of AEP and OEP.

在財產和意外傷害方面，我們預計季節性的影響將減弱，交易價值將與第三季的水平相似。在健康領域，由於史蒂夫之前提到的原因，我們預計交易價值將比去年同期成長將大致持平。提醒一下，由於 AEP 和 OEP 的時間安排，第四季度通常占我們健康垂直領域全年交易額的 40% 左右。

As a result, we expect Q4 transaction value to be between $145 million and $160 million, a year-over-year decrease of 10% at the midpoint. We expect revenue to be between $106 million and $116 million, a year-over-year decrease of 10% at the midpoint.

因此，我們預計第四季度交易額將在 1.45 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間，年比中位數下降 10%。我們預計營收在 1.06 億美元至 1.16 億美元之間，中點將年減 10%。

Lastly, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $9.5 million and $11.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 16% at the midpoint. Q4 operating expenses after adjusted EBITDA add backs are expected to be approximately $500,000 to $1 million higher than Q3 levels due in part to seasonality.

最後，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 950 萬美元至 1,150 萬美元之間，中位數年增 16%。調整後 EBITDA 加回後的第四季營運費用預計將比第三季高出約 50 萬至 100 萬美元，部分原因是季節性因素。

Moving to other noteworthy items. During Q3, we incurred approximately $2 million of legal expenses, the majority of which were related to the ongoing FTC inquiry with the balance from a legal settlement unrelated to our core operations.

轉向其他值得注意的項目。第三季度，我們產生了約 200 萬美元的法律費用，其中大部分與正在進行的 FTC 調查有關，其餘部分來自與我們的核心業務無關的法律和解。

We expect to incur $1 million of fees associated with the FTC inquiry during Q4, a bit lower than Q3. We continue to believe we have been and remain fully compliant with all laws and regulations, and we are cooperating with the FTC as they continue their inquiry.

我們預計第四季將產生 100 萬美元與 FTC 調查相關的費用，略低於第三季。我們仍然相信我們已經並將繼續完全遵守所有法律和法規，我們正在配合聯邦貿易委員會繼續調查。

Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to prioritize financial flexibility in using excess cash to decrease net debt. We ended the quarter with $15 million of cash on hand, and our focus remains on reducing financial leverage through a combination of net debt reduction and adjusted EBITDA growth.

轉向資產負債表。我們繼續優先考慮使用多餘現金來減少淨債務的財務靈活性。本季結束時，我們手頭上有 1500 萬美元現金，我們的重點仍然是透過淨債務削減和調整後 EBITDA 成長相結合來降低財務槓桿。

With that, operator, we are ready for the first question.

至此，操作員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Michael Graham with Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Michael Graham 的線路。

I appreciate all the information and hopefully, we're getting to the end of this tough period here. I had 2 questions related to P&C transaction value. The first one is you had a peak of $183 million in transaction value in P&C in Q1 of 2021, and this quarter was $45 million. If we are -- if you're right, and we're fortunate enough to have a better year next year and we start growing again. Do you just have any high-level thoughts on like how long it takes to kind of get back to that previous high?

我感謝所有的訊息，希望我們能夠結束這個艱難的時期。我有 2 個與財產險交易價值相關的問題。第一個是 2021 年第一季財產險交易額達到高峰 1.83 億美元，本季為 4,500 萬美元。如果我們是——如果你是對的，我們很幸運明年會有更好的一年，我們將再次開始成長。您是否有任何高層次的想法，例如需要多長時間才能回到先前的高點？

And just a related question you might want to leave in is just I'm wondering how long historically or practically is the lead time that you have visibility into? When carriers get ready to turn spending back on, how far in advance do they tend to notify you?

您可能想留下的一個相關問題是，我想知道您可以了解的歷史或實際交貨時間有多長？當營運商準備恢復支出時，他們通常會提前多久通知您？

Michael, yes, I'll answer the last question first, which is the amount of lead time. I'd say that we get -- I mean, it differs, right? But I think we get in at least several weeks, if not a couple of months of lead time before carriers start to turn on spend or turn down spend.

邁克爾，是的，我先回答最後一個問題，即交貨時間。我想說，我們得到——我的意思是，它有所不同，對吧？但我認為，在營運商開始增加支出或拒絕支出之前，我們至少需要幾週甚至幾個月的準備時間。

Certainly, that has a lot of caveats. I would say this period right now, we're getting plenty of notice from carriers as we're engaging in them in discussion just because we're starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and what's been a historically difficult hard market.

當然，這有很多警告。我想說，現在，我們從運營商那裡得到了很多通知，因為我們正在與他們進行討論，只是因為我們開始看到隧道盡頭的曙光，以及歷史上困難的硬市場。

And so -- now to go back to your original question, just what I'd say, I'd say that we're looking forward to 2024. I mean certainly, we're seeing positive signs that everyone else is, right? Higher rates are earning through and the earnings through at a rate that's actually far higher than moderating claims costs. And so that's good. That's the industry really digging up its way out of the profitability hole that had been dug for it over the last couple of years.

所以，現在回到你原來的問題，我想說的是，我們期待 2024 年。我的意思是，我們當然看到了其他人都看到的積極跡象，對嗎？更高的利率是透過收入，而收入通過率實際上遠高於緩和索賠成本。所以這很好。這才是該產業真正走出過去幾年獲利漏洞的出路。

And so I think what you'll see in the beginning of next year is increased spend because I think enough carriers will either be at target profitability or it fairly have good line of sight to reaching target profitability in 2024, which means that when the annual combined rate -- combined ratio as well as advertising budget cycles renew in the beginning of next year, the whole industry should see a benefit from that, and we should see material increase in advertising spend in Q1.

因此，我認為明年年初您將看到支出增加，因為我認為足夠的運營商要么達到目標盈利能力，要么相當有能力在 2024 年實現目標盈利能力，這意味著當年綜合比率——綜合比率以及廣告預算週期將於明年初更新，整個行業應該會從中受益，我們應該會看到第一季廣告支出的大幅成長。

Now I will say that the increase in the upcoming Q1 is not likely to be as strong as what we've seen in the past, namely last year. And it's simply, I think, a concession to how unpredictable the cycle has been. And so this isn't just us, I think, seeing this from our discussions with carriers. And you heard this in the earnings call that Progressive had earlier today.

現在我要說的是，即將到來的第一季的成長不太可能像我們過去（即去年）看到的那樣強勁。我認為，這只是對週期的不可預測性的讓步。因此，我認為，這不僅僅是我們從我們與營運商的討論中看到的。您在今天早些時候的 Progressive 財報電話會議上也聽到了這一點。

But what we expect to see is really the momentum starting to gain steam over 2024 as more and more carriers get comfortable with their rates. And then we expect this to really extend into '25, right? I mean to answer your specific question of when things will get back to exactly that level, it's impossible to say. But we do think that the recovery is going to gain steam over the next 1.5 years.

但我們預計，隨著越來越多的營運商對其費率感到滿意，這種勢頭將在 2024 年開始增強。然後我們預計這會真正延續到 25 年，對吧？我的意思是回答你的具體問題，即事情何時會回到那個水平，這是不可能說的。但我們確實認為復甦將在未來 1.5 年內加速。

And I think with the elevated shopping levels that we expect to see for 18 to 24 months, I think it's going to be a strong 2 to 3 years of growth through what is increasingly softening market until we get to that level and beyond in the years to come. So I hope that answers your question, Michael.

我認為，隨著我們預計18 至24 個月內購物水平的提高，我認為，在市場日益疲軟的情況下，這將是2 至3 年的強勁增長，直到我們在幾年內達到這一水平並超越這一層次。來。所以我希望這能回答你的問題，麥可。

And your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of Bank of Montreal.

您的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Mike Zaremski。

I'm more of a P&C guy, so my question is on the health side actually. So on the P&C side, when we just think about kind of how much inflation has come into the system, just the cost of auto insurance policy versus a few years ago, right, pricing is up 50-plus percent, which, I guess, I feel like should essentially help right your transaction revenue volumes in outer years.

我更喜歡財產和意外險，所以我的問題實際上是關於健康方面的。因此，在財產險方面，當我們考慮系統中的通貨膨脹程度時，只考慮汽車保險保單的成本與幾年前相比，對吧，定價上漲了 50% 以上，我想，我覺得應該基本上有助於糾正您在過去幾年的交易收入量。

On the health side, can you remind us what type of inflationary levels are impacting the health side of the business?

在健康方面，您能否提醒我們什麼類型的通膨水平正在影響企業的健康方面？

Yes. And Mike, this is Pat here. I can address that question. And I would say the trends -- the inflationary trends are pretty different between P&C and the health side of the house.

是的。麥克，這是帕特。我可以回答這個問題。我想說的是，財產保險和家庭健康的通膨趨勢非常不同。

So on P&C, the industry would call it severity, which is the cost of resolving the claims and inflation there has been kind of running in the double digits for a while now. And I think that is in kind of stark contrast to where it was for the better part of 20 years before that, which was -- it was anywhere from 0 to low mid-single digits. And really, I think what's caused a lot of the P&C hard market is the fact that they just haven't been able to take rate fast enough given how high the claims cost inflation has been.

因此，在財產險和意外險方面，業界將其稱為“嚴重性”，即解決索賠的成本和通貨膨脹率，目前一段時間以來一直以兩位數的速度運行。我認為這與 20 年前的大部分時間形成鮮明對比，從 0 到中低個位數的任何地方。事實上，我認為造成財產和意外傷害市場的大部分原因是，考慮到索賠成本通膨有多高，他們無法足夠快地採取利率。

On the health side, I think long-term inflation for kind of health care claims has run higher than it has for auto insurance, but it's also been more consistent and more predictable. And so I think on the Medicare side, you've seen some of the big players talk about medical claims coming in above expectations. That's a point or 2 above expectations. In that sense, stark contrast to P&C, where for 2021 and 2022, it may have been 10 points above people's expectations.

在健康方面，我認為醫療保健索賠的長期通膨率高於汽車保險，但也更加一致和可預測。因此，我認為在醫療保險方面，您已經看到一些大公司談論醫療索賠超出預期。這比預期高出一兩點。從這個意義上說，與財產險和意外險形成鮮明對比，2021 年和 2022 年，它可能比人們的預期高出 10 個百分點。

And so I think the health side, yes, there's been a bit of noise about that, but in our mind, that's not a particularly big issue just given the kind of range in which it normally operates.

所以我認為在健康方面，是的，對此有一些噪音，但在我們看來，考慮到它通常運行的範圍，這並不是一個特別大的問題。

Okay. Got it. Yes, we've been hearing and seeing data points about health inflation ticking up a bit. Okay. On the P&C vertical, my last question. Just in the past, you've talked about maybe seeing some larger carriers enter the marketplace that weren't larger carriers -- that they weren't big players in the marketplace in the past. Are you still -- do you sense that in the coming year or so, there are some carriers that are trying to be bigger direct-to-consumer players through your marketplace? Or it's just too early to tell?

好的。知道了。是的，我們已經聽到並看到有關健康通膨的數據點有所上升。好的。關於財產保險垂直領域，我的最後一個問題。就在過去，您談到可能會看到一些較大的運營商進入市場，而這些運營商並不是較大的運營商——他們過去並不是市場上的大玩家。您是否仍然感覺到，在未來一年左右的時間裡，有些業者正試圖透過您的市場成為更大的直接面向消費者的參與者？還是現在說還太早？

No -- Mike, this is Steve. No, I think we're continuing to see that trend. I think that when you look at the list of the largest P&C carriers, I think they're punching according to their weight and varying degrees within our marketplace. And so there certainly are large carriers who traditionally have relied on agent-based distribution, whether it's be captive agents or independent agents who are looking to invest and have invested in direct-to-consumer capabilities, and they're at various stages of actually investing in those capabilities.

不——麥克，這是史蒂夫。不，我認為我們將繼續看到這種趨勢。我認為，當你查看最大的財產險承運人名單時，我認為他們正在根據自己的重量和不同程度在我們的市場中發揮作用。因此，肯定有一些大型營運商傳統上依賴基於代理的分銷，無論是專屬代理還是獨立代理，他們正在尋求投資並已經投資於直接面向消費者的能力，而且他們實際上處於不同的階段。投資於這些能力。

And so we continue to expect large carriers, top 1 or 2 top 5 certainly within the top 25 carriers to start to come into the marketplace in the upcoming years, and become more relevant players in the marketplace according to our thesis, which is that agent-based distribution certainly isn't going to go away. But really, every top carrier needs to invest in direct distribution because of the success that the direct-to-consumer model has had and really changing the landscape over the last 10 years and league table over the last 10 years.

因此，我們繼續預計大型營運商（當然是前25 名營運商中的前1 名或前2 名）將在未來幾年開始進入市場，並根據我們的論文（即代理商）成為市場中更相關的參與者基於網路的分發當然不會消失。但實際上，每個頂級營運商都需要投資直接分銷，因為直接面向消費者的模式取得了成功，並真正改變了過去 10 年的格局和過去 10 年的排名。

And so we continue to see that trend. I think what you've seen really in the hard market is essentially a pause in that secular trend. But as the market emerges from into a soft market and carriers get back into a growth mindset, I think you'll see a continuation of that. And so you should see other larger carriers who again have traditionally focused on different types of distribution methods to really start to resume their direct-to-consumer investments and then become bigger players in our marketplace as a result.

所以我們繼續看到這種趨勢。我認為你在硬市場中看到的實質上是長期趨勢的暫停。但隨著市場走出疲軟市場，營運商重新回歸成長心態，我認為你會看到這種情況的延續。因此，您應該看到其他傳統上專注於不同類型分銷方法的大型營運商真正開始恢復直接面向消費者的投資，然後成為我們市場中更大的參與者。

And our next question comes from the line of Ben Hendrix from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Ben Hendrix。

I just was hoping to get a quick update on your thoughts thus far in Medicare AEP. We heard from Humana management this morning stating that perhaps broadly planned design degradation has progressed to a lesser degree than expected amid risk model changes, and maybe that could point to less shopping behavior this year than they had initially expected. Just wanted to see how things are trending so far from your perspective and if there's any change to the way you're thinking about the transaction value activity this year?

我只是希望能快速了解您迄今為止在 Medicare AEP 中的想法的最新情況。今天早上，我們從 Humana 管理層得知，在風險模型發生變化的情況下，廣泛計劃的設計退化程度可能比預期的要小，這可能表明今年的購物行為比他們最初預期的要少。只是想看看從您的角度來看，到目前為止事情的趨勢如何，以及您對今年交易價值活動的看法是否有任何變化？

Great. Ben, thanks for the question. This is Pat here. So I would say AEP has gotten off to a slower start than we would have hoped. Would say that some carriers, I think, are doing well. Others are maybe having a few more challenges from at least what we've gleaned from the public calls and from what they've told us.

偉大的。本，謝謝你的提問。這是帕特。所以我想說 AEP 的起步比我們希望的還要慢。我認為有些運營商做得很好。至少從我們從公眾呼籲和他們告訴我們的情況中收集到的信息來看，其他人可能面臨更多挑戰。

And would say that really, there have been kind of 2 primary issues: first, I would say is that we have some partners that have been struggling to adapt quickly to some of the new marketing rules that have been put into place by CMS; and we have other partners that have seen delays in getting marketing creative approved to be able to run in a timely manner for the start of AEP.

確實，有兩個主要問題：首先，我想說的是，我們的一些合作夥伴一直在努力快速適應 CMS 實施的一些新行銷規則；我們還有其他合作夥伴在獲得行銷創意批准方面遇到了延誤，以便能夠在 AEP 啟動前及時運行。

And so we've seen partners, whether they're publishers or carriers working through adjustments to try to adapt to this new world order and get things to where they need to be, and -- but it looks like it's going to be a slower AEP than we hoped.

因此，我們看到合作夥伴，無論是出版商還是營運商，都在進行調整，試圖適應這種新的世界秩序，並將事情帶到他們需要的地方，而且——但看起來會更慢AEP比我們希望的要高。

But having said that, we're as bullish as we've ever been regarding the long-term potential in Medicare Advantage. It's a product that over half of Americans chosen to opt into. That number keeps going up and to the right, and that's a trend that we think will continue in the years to come and one that should benefit us and quite frankly, benefit the consumers and the carriers. It's a win-win-win.

但話雖如此，我們一如既往地看好 Medicare Advantage 的長期潛力。這是超過一半的美國人選擇使用的產品。這個數字不斷上升，而且向右，我們認為這一趨勢將在未來幾年持續下去，這應該會使我們受益，坦白說，使消費者和營運商受益。這是一個雙贏的結果。

And our next question comes from the line of Thomas McJoynt from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Thomas McJoynt。

The first one is on the P&C side, is it appropriate to think of the potential kind of carrier advertising spend, perhaps next year, perhaps the year after, as getting back to the same percentage of premiums as it was a few years ago? And I asked just because given the robust growth in the overall personal auto premium pool, that could suggest a pretty tremendous revenue opportunity in the out years once it does normalize. So just want to get your sense on if you think as a percentage of premium, it should revert back to where it was a few years ago?

第一個是在財產險方面，考慮到承運人廣告支出的潛在類型（也許是明年，也許是後年）恢復到與幾年前相同的保費百分比是否合適？我之所以這麼問，是因為考慮到個人汽車保費總額的強勁增長，一旦其正常化，這可能意味著未來幾年將出現相當巨大的收入機會。所以只是想了解一下您是否認為保費的百分比應該恢復到幾年前的水平？

Thomas, yes, it's a good question. So carriers typically benchmark their advertising fund to measure the effectiveness of their advertising spend based on the expected lifetime value of the customer. And so, of course, the policy that they're acquiring. And so I think to the extent that there's been a significant amount of inflation on the dollar value of all the policies that are being sold, I think you can expect the advertising spend to go up in rough proportion of that assuming that they're going to continue to measure the effectiveness of their advertising spend based on just the percentage of customer lifetime value that they're pegging their return on ad spend to.

湯瑪斯，是的，這是一個好問題。因此，營運商通常會根據客戶的預期終身價值對廣告資金進行基準測試，以衡量廣告支出的有效性。當然，他們正在獲得的政策也是如此。因此，我認為，在某種程度上，所有正在銷售的保單的美元價值都出現了顯著的通貨膨脹，我認為你可以預期廣告支出將大致按比例增長，假設廣告支出將繼續增長。繼續根據廣告支出報酬率與顧客生命週期價值的百分比來衡量廣告支出的有效性。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And then my second question, is there any concern out there that just the amount of shopping behavior and really the kind of high velocity of switching that we're seeing in light of the rate increases that carriers are pushing through means that carriers won't have to feel the need to pay for leads as much as they have in the past just because there's so much kind of natural turnover in the books already?

好的。是的，這是有道理的。然後我的第二個問題是，是否有人擔心，根據運營商正在推動的費率上漲，購物行為的數量以及我們所看到的高速轉換意味著運營商不會僅僅因為賬本上已經有如此多的自然營業額，就必須感到有必要像過去一樣為潛在客戶支付費用嗎？

Yes. That's also a very good question. Well, I think what you're hearing about is a little bit of slowdown in terms of ambient or organic shopping behavior because we've been in an environment where rates have been going up for the better part of 2 years.

是的。這也是一個非常好的問題。嗯，我認為您所聽到的是環境或有機購物行為方面的一些放緩，因為我們所處的環境在過去兩年的大部分時間裡一直在上漲。

And so I do think that in this case and in the upcoming years, what's really going to drive the market is the desire for growth that carriers are going to have. And our belief is that whenever there's a desire for growth, I think the advertising spend will follow and be in proportion with that desire to grow.

因此，我確實認為，在這種情況下以及未來幾年，真正推動市場發展的是營運商對成長的渴望。我們的信念是，只要有成長的願望，我認為廣告支出就會隨之而來，並與這種成長的願望成正比。

And so what you're going to see is -- what you're going to see are carriers who have largely sat on the sidelines for the better part of 2 to 2.5 years, really not growing their policies in force. And so I think once target profitability is attained by a lot of these carriers, I think the growth pressures will start to build.

因此，您將看到的是，您將看到運營商在 2 到 2.5 年的大部分時間裡基本上處於觀望狀態，實際上並沒有增強其政策的效力。因此，我認為，一旦許多此類營運商實現了目標獲利能力，我認為成長壓力將開始增加。

And regardless of, I think, the amount of organic shopping behavior or behavior that you expect to see in the marketplace, I think the carriers are going to invest in growth. And the way they invest in growth is really through advertising.

我認為，無論自然購物行為或您期望在市場上看到的行為有多少，我認為運營商都會投資於成長。他們投資成長的方式實際上是透過廣告。

(Operator Instructions) And with no further questions, we do thank everyone for joining. This does conclude today's MediaAlpha Q3 2023 Earnings Call, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.

（操作員說明）沒有其他問題，我們非常感謝大家的加入。今天的 MediaAlpha 2023 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束，您現在可以斷開連線了。祝大家有個美好的一天。