Matson Inc (MATX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Matson second quarter 2025 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Justin Schoenberg, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Matson 2025 年第二季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。現在，我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係和企業發展總監賈斯汀·勳伯格 (Justin Schoenberg)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Matt Cox, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Joel Wine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides from this presentation are available for download at our website, www.matson.com, under the Investors tab. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable.

謝謝。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Matt Cox 和執行副總裁兼財務長喬爾懷恩 (Joel Wine)。本次演講的幻燈片可在我們的網站 www.matson.com 的「投資者」標籤下下載。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將根據聯邦證券法的含義，對預期、預測、預期或未來事件做出前瞻性陳述。我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。

We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements in the press release, the presentation slides and this conference call. These risk factors are described in our press release and presentation and are more fully detailed under the caption Risk Factors on Pages 24 to 35 of our Form 10-Q filed on May 6, 2025, and in our subsequent filings with the SEC. Please also note that the date of this conference call is July 31, 2025, and any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Matt.

我們提醒您考慮可能導致實際結果與新聞稿、簡報和本次電話會議中的前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的風險因素。這些風險因素在我們的新聞稿和簡報中進行了描述，並在我們於 2025 年 5 月 6 日提交的 10-Q 表第 24 至 35 頁的「風險因素」標題下以及我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了更詳細的說明。另請注意，本次電話會議的日期為 2025 年 7 月 31 日，我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於截至該日期的假設。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。現在我將把電話轉給馬特。

Thanks, Justin, and thanks to those on the call. Starting on Slide 3. Our second quarter financial performance exceeded our expectations amid the challenges of market uncertainty and volatility arising from tariffs and global trade. In Ocean Transportation, operating income was lower year over year, primarily due to lower year-over-year volume in our China service. In our domestic trade lanes, we saw higher year-over-year volume in Hawaii and Alaska and lower year-over-year volume in Guam.

謝謝賈斯汀，也謝謝電話裡的所有人。從投影片 3 開始。在關稅和全球貿易帶來的市場不確定性和波動性挑戰中，我們的第二季財務表現超出了預期。遠洋運輸業務的營業收入較去年同期下降，主要原因是我們中國航線的運量較去年同期下降。在我們的國內貿易航線中，夏威夷和阿拉斯加的貨運量較去年同期成長，而關島的貨運量較去年同期下降。

In Logistics, our operating income was lower year over year, primarily due to a lower contribution from transportation brokerage. Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty regarding tariffs and global trade, regulatory measures, the trajectory of the US economy and other geopolitical factors to continue. However, given our financial performance in the second quarter and assuming these factors do not materially change from current conditions, we are raising our outlook for the full year 2025. Joel will go into more detail on our updated outlook later in the presentation.

在物流方面，我們的營業收入較去年同期下降，主要原因是運輸經紀業務的貢獻較低。展望未來，我們預期關稅和全球貿易、監管措施、美國經濟趨勢和其他地緣政治因素的不確定性將持續存在。然而，考慮到我們第二季度的財務業績，並假設這些因素與當前情況相比沒有重大變化，我們上調了對 2025 年全年的展望。喬爾將在稍後的演講中更詳細地介紹我們更新後的展望。

I will now go through the second quarter performance of our trade lanes, SSAT and logistics. So please turn to the next slide. Container volume in our Hawaii service increased 2.6% in the second quarter year-over-year. The increase was primarily due to higher general demand. For the full year 2025, we expect volume to be modestly higher than the level achieved in 2024, reflecting modest economic growth in Hawaii and stable market share.

我現在將介紹我們的貿易航線、SSAT 和物流的第二季表現。請翻到下一張投影片。我們夏威夷航線的貨櫃吞吐量在第二季度同比增長了 2.6%。成長主要是由於總體需求增加。對於 2025 年全年而言，我們預計銷量將略高於 2024 年的水平，這反映了夏威夷經濟的溫和成長和穩定的市場份額。

Please turn to Slide 5. According to UHERO's second quarter 2025 economic report, the Hawaii economy remains stable, supported by strong construction activity, but faces potential headwinds from slowing tourism, increasing unemployment and high inflation and interest rates. Hawaii is currently experiencing solid construction activity from the public sector and the Maui rebuilding effort. Hawaii tourism showed modest growth in the second quarter despite international tourist arrivals remaining challenged. Please turn to Slide 6.

請翻到投影片 5。根據 UHERO 的 2025 年第二季經濟報告，夏威夷經濟保持穩定，受到強勁建築活動的支撐，但面臨旅遊業放緩、失業率上升以及高通膨和高利率等潛在阻力。夏威夷目前正經歷公共部門的紮實建設活動和毛伊島的重建工作。儘管國際遊客數量仍面臨挑戰，但夏威夷旅遊業在第二季度仍呈現溫和成長。請翻到幻燈片 6。

Moving to our China service. Container volume in the second quarter of 2025 decreased 14.6% year-over-year, primarily due to the challenges of market uncertainty and volatility from tariffs and global trade. Freight rates were modestly higher year over year. As you might recall, we began to see elevated rates in the middle of the second quarter last year due to tighter supply chain conditions, including the effects of the Red Sea situation, coupled with the supportive economic and consumer demand environment. Please turn to Slide 7.

轉向我們的中國服務。2025 年第二季貨櫃吞吐量年減 14.6%，主要原因是市場不確定性以及關稅和全球貿易波動帶來的挑戰。運費比去年同期略有上漲。您可能還記得，由於供應鏈條件緊張（包括紅海局勢的影響）以及有利的經濟和消費者需求環境，我們在去年第二季中期開始看到運費上漲。請翻到幻燈片 7。

At the onset of tariffs in April, we experienced significantly lower year-over-year freight demand as our customers held back less urgent shipments to work through the tariff impacts. Many of our customers were negotiating the tariffs with their trading partners on an order-by-order basis. At the same time, we saw carriers and alliances begin to reduce capacity in the transpacific trade lane based on the significant volume downturn. Starting in mid-May, we saw a rebound in demand after the US and China agreed to a temporary reduced level of tariffs, but also in anticipation of country-specific reciprocal tariffs returning in August.

自從四月關稅開始實施以來，我們的貨運需求年比大幅下降，因為我們的客戶推遲了不太緊急的貨運以應對關稅的影響。我們的許多客戶正在根據訂單與貿易夥伴協商關稅。同時，我們看到承運商和聯盟由於運量大幅下降而開始減少跨太平洋貿易航線的運力。從 5 月中旬開始，在美國和中國同意暫時降低關稅之後，我們看到需求反彈，同時也預期各國將在 8 月恢復互惠關稅。

The buildup of freight that had taken place unwound over several weeks. Market freight rates increased quickly to meet the higher demand levels and capacity returned over the subsequent few weeks. Following the London meeting in June between the US and China that upheld the terms from May, we saw a stabilization of volume modestly below the prior year period amid a number of evolving trade lane supply and demand factors, including trade lane capacity reductions after the cargo rush in May, customers in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries advancing freight ahead of July 9 when the 90-day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs expired and some customers pulling forward freight from the traditional peak season in the third quarter to de-risk ahead of the next US-China deadline. Please turn to Slide 8.

貨物的積壓在數週內逐漸平息。市場運費迅速上漲以滿足更高的需求水平，運能在隨後的幾週內恢復。繼 6 月份中美在倫敦會晤並維持 5 月份的條款後，我們看到貨運量穩定在略低於去年同期的水平，原因是貿易航線供需因素不斷變化，包括 5 月份貨運高峰後貿易航線運力減少、越南和其他東南亞國家的客戶在 7 月 9 日國家特定互惠關稅 90天暫停期到期前提前貨運，以及一些客戶將第三季傳統旺季的貨運提前，以在下一個中美最後期限前降低風險。請翻到幻燈片 8。

During the second quarter, we moved with our customers as they shifted production throughout Asia in response to the tariffs, which resulted in higher container volume levels originating outside of China. Our transshipment volume in the second quarter 2025 represented approximately 21% of our China service compared to approximately 13% in the first quarter of this year. The sequential quarterly increase is primarily due to higher customer demand and the opening of our new expedited Ho Chi Minh service offering as our second best-in-class service out of Vietnam with our Haiphong service from two years ago. While we don't know where our transshipment percentage will ultimately land given the various factors at play, we do believe in the long run that an increasing percentage of volume will originate from areas outside of China.

在第二季度，我們隨著客戶的變化而採取相應措施，將生產轉移到亞洲各地以應對關稅，這導致來自中國以外的貨櫃數量增加。2025 年第二季我們的轉運量約占我們中國航線服務的 21%，而今年第一季這一比例約為 13%。季度環比增長主要歸因於客戶需求的增加，以及我們新開通的胡志明市加急服務，該服務是繼兩年前開通的海防服務之後，我們在越南的第二大同類最佳服務。雖然考慮到各種因素，我們不知道我們的轉運比例最終會下降到多少，但從長遠來看，我們相信越來越多的貨物將來自中國以外的地區。

We remain focused on supporting our customers in the region as they continue to shift their production capabilities, and we will look at opportunities to further expand our transshipment capabilities.

隨著該地區的客戶不斷轉變生產能力，我們將繼續致力於為他們提供支持，並且我們將尋找機會進一步擴大我們的轉運能力。

Looking ahead, in the third quarter 2025, we expect lower year-over-year freight rates and volume compared to the elevated demand levels achieved in the third quarter last year and our expectation of a muted peak season this year. As I mentioned earlier, we saw a stabilization of volume in June and in July, we continued to see stabilized volume and rates, notwithstanding lower demand levels and continued pressure on the SCFI. As a result, our premium to SCFI widened, and we significantly outperformed the market relative to the SCFI due to our service differentiation and brand reputation.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年第三季的貨運價格和貨運量將年減，而去年第三季的需求水準有所提高，而我們預計今年旺季將較為平淡。正如我之前提到的，6 月份貨運量趨於穩定，7 月份，儘管需求水準較低且 SCFI 持續承壓，但貨運量和運費仍保持穩定。因此，我們相對於 SCFI 的溢價擴大了，並且由於我們的服務差異化和品牌聲譽，我們相對於 SCFI 的表現顯著優於市場。

Assuming tariffs and global trade, regulatory measures, the trajectory of the US economy and other geopolitical factors do not materially change from current conditions, we expect for the full year 2025 average freight rates and volume to be lower year-over-year.

假設關稅和全球貿易、監管措施、美國經濟走勢和其他地緣政治因素與當前情況相比沒有重大變化，我們預計 2025 年全年平均運費和運量將同比下降。

Please turn to the next slide. In Guam, Matson's container volume in the second quarter of 2025 decreased 2.2% year-over-year. In the near term, we expect Guam's economy to remain stable with a slow recovery in tourism, low unemployment rate and some increase in construction activity. As such, for the full year 2025, we expect container volume to be modestly lower than the level achieved in the last year. Please turn to Slide 10.

請翻到下一張投影片。在關島，美森航運2025年第二季的貨櫃量較去年同期下降2.2%。短期內，我們預計關島經濟將保持穩定，旅遊業將緩慢復甦，失業率將保持在較低水平，建築活動將增加。因此，我們預計 2025 年全年貨櫃吞吐量將略低於去年的水平。請翻到投影片 10。

In Alaska, Matson's container volume for the second quarter of 2025 increased 0.9% year-over-year. The increase was primarily due to higher AAX volume, partially offset by two fewer northbound sailings compared to the year ago period. In the near term, we expect continued economic growth in Alaska, supported by a low unemployment rate, job growth and continued oil and gas exploration and production activity. As such, for 2025, we expect container volume to be modestly higher than the level achieved last year. Please turn to Slide 11.

在阿拉斯加，美森航運2025年第二季的貨櫃量較去年同期成長0.9%。成長的主要原因是亞航長線 (AAX) 客運量增加，但與去年同期相比，北行航班減少兩次，部分抵消了這一增長。短期內，我們預期阿拉斯加經濟將持續成長，這得益於低失業率、就業成長以及持續的石油和天然氣勘探和生產活動。因此，我們預計 2025 年的貨櫃吞吐量將略高於去年的水平。請翻到投影片 11。

In the second quarter, our SSAT terminal joint venture contributed $7.3 million, representing a year-over-year increase of $6.1 million. The increase is primarily due to higher lift volume. For 2025, we expect the contribution from SSAT to be modestly higher than the $17.4 million achieved last year without taking into account the $18.4 million impairment charge at SSAT during the fourth quarter of 2024. Turning now to Logistics on Slide 12. Operating income in the second quarter came in at $14.4 million or $1.2 million lower than the result in the year ago period.

第二季度，我們的 SSAT 終端合資企業貢獻了 730 萬美元，年增 610 萬美元。成長的主要原因是提升量增加。對於 2025 年，我們預計 SSAT 的貢獻將略高於去年的 1,740 萬美元，但不考慮 2024 年第四季 SSAT 的 1,840 萬美元減損費用。現在轉到投影片 12 上的物流。第二季營業收入為 1,440 萬美元，比去年同期低 120 萬美元。

The decrease was primarily due to a lower contribution from transportation brokerage. For the third quarter 2025, we expect Logistics operating income to be comparable to the level achieved last year. And for the full year 2025, we expect operating income to also be comparable to the level achieved last year. And I will now turn the call over to Joel for a review of our financial performance. Joel?

下降的主要原因是運輸經紀業務的貢獻減少。對於 2025 年第三季度，我們預計物流營業收入將與去年的水平相當。我們預計 2025 年全年的營業收入也將與去年的水準相當。現在我將把電話轉給喬爾，讓他審查我們的財務表現。喬爾？

Thanks, Matt. Please turn to Slide 13 for a review of our second quarter results. For the second quarter, consolidated operating income decreased $11.6 million year over year to $113 million with lower contributions from Ocean Transportation and Logistics of $10.4 million and $1.2 million, respectively. The decrease in Ocean Transportation operating income in the second quarter was primarily due to lower volume in China, partially offset by higher freight rates in China and the timing of fuel-related surcharge collections. As Matt noted, the decrease in logistics operating income was primarily due to a lower contribution from transportation brokerage.

謝謝，馬特。請翻到投影片 13 查看我們的第二季業績。第二季度，綜合營業收入年減 1,160 萬美元至 1.13 億美元，其中遠洋運輸和物流業務的貢獻分別減少 1,040 萬美元和 120 萬美元。第二季遠洋運輸營業收入的下降主要是因為中國運輸量下降，但被中國運費上漲和燃油附加費徵收時間所部分抵銷。正如馬特所指出的，物流營業收入的下降主要是因為運輸經紀業務的貢獻減少。

We had interest income of $8 million in the quarter compared to $18.8 million in the same period last year. As you may recall, second quarter 2024 included $10.2 million in interest income earned on the federal tax refund related to our 2021 federal tax return. Interest expense in the quarter decreased $0.4 million year over year due to the decline in outstanding debt in the past year. Net income decreased 16.3% year over year to $94.7 million and diluted earnings per share decreased 11.8% year over year to $2.92 per share. Note the $10.2 million in onetime interest income earned on our federal tax refund I just mentioned contributed $0.24 in the earnings per share in the year ago quarter.

本季我們的利息收入為 800 萬美元，去年同期為 1,880 萬美元。您可能還記得，2024 年第二季包括與我們 2021 年聯邦稅申報表相關的聯邦退稅所獲得的 1,020 萬美元利息收入。由於去年未償債務減少，本季利息支出較去年同期減少 40 萬美元。淨收入年減 16.3% 至 9,470 萬美元，每股攤薄收益較去年同期下降 11.8% 至每股 2.92 美元。請注意，我剛才提到的從聯邦退稅中獲得的 1020 萬美元的一次性利息收入為去年同期的每股收益貢獻了 0.24 美元。

Lastly, diluted weighted average shares outstanding decreased 5.3% year over year. Please turn to Slide 14. This slide shows how we allocated our trailing 12 months of cash flow generation. For the LTM period, we generated cash flow from operations of approximately $617.9 million, from which we used $39.7 million to retire debt, $199 million on maintenance and other CapEx, $161.5 million on new vessel CapEx, including capitalized interest and owners' items, $30.3 million in cash deposits and interest income in the CCF, net of withdrawals for milestone payments, $14.5 million on other cash outflows, while returning approximately $284.4 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchase. Please turn to Slide 15 for a summary of our share repurchase program and balance sheet.

最後，稀釋加權平均流通股數較去年同期下降 5.3%。請翻到投影片 14。這張投影片展示了我們如何分配過去 12 個月的現金流。在 LTM 期間，我們產生了約 6.179 億美元的經營現金流，其中 3970 萬美元用於償還債務，1.99 億美元用於維護和其他資本支出，1.615 億美元用於新船資本支出（包括資本化利息和船東項目），3030 萬美元的現金存款和 CCF 的提款收入（1450萬美元用於其他現金流出，同時透過股利和股票回購向股東返還約 2.844 億美元。請翻到投影片 15 查看我們的股票回購計畫和資產負債表的摘要。

During the second quarter, we repurchased approximately 0.9 million shares for a total cost of $93.7 million, including taxes. Year-to-date, we repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares for a total cost of $162.9 million, including taxes. Since we initiated our share repurchase program in August of 2021 through June of this year, we have repurchased approximately 12.5 million shares or 28.8% of our stock for a total cost of approximately $1.1 billion. As we have said before, we are committed to returning excess capital to shareholders and plan to continue to do so in the absence of any large organic or inorganic growth investment opportunities. Turning to our debt levels.

第二季度，我們回購了約 90 萬股，總成本為 9,370 萬美元（含稅）。年初至今，我們回購了約 140 萬股，總成本為 1.629 億美元（含稅）。自 2021 年 8 月啟動股票回購計畫以來，截至今年 6 月，我們已回購約 1,250 萬股，占我們股票的 28.8%，總成本約為 11 億美元。正如我們之前所說，我們致力於將多餘的資本返還給股東，並計劃在沒有任何大型有機或無機成長投資機會的情況下繼續這樣做。談談我們的債務水平。

Our total debt at the end of the second quarter was $381 million, a reduction of $9.8 million from the end of the first quarter. Lastly, on July 23, we entered into a new 5-year revolving credit facility with commitments aggregating $550 million. We reduced the size of our credit facility from $650 million to $550 million due to the nearly fully funded status of the new Aloha Class vessel build program and our expected lower level of capital needs for the remainder of the decade due in part to our next Jones Act build cycle not anticipated until the mid-2030s. In connection with the new revolver, we also amended the existing private placement debt to match the covenants and terms of the new revolving credit facility. Please turn to Slide 16.

我們第二季末的總債務為 3.81 億美元，比第一季末減少了 980 萬美元。最後，7 月 23 日，我們達成了一項新的 5 年期循環信貸協議，承諾總額為 5.5 億美元。我們將信貸額度從 6.5 億美元削減至 5.5 億美元，原因是新型 Aloha 級船舶建造計劃的資金已接近全額到位，而且由於我們預計下一個瓊斯法案建造週期要到 2030 年代中期才會開始，因此我們預計未來十年剩餘時間的資本需求將較低。結合新的循環信貸額度，我們也修改了現有的私募債務，以符合新循環信貸額度的契約和條款。請翻到投影片 16。

I'm going to walk through our outlook, starting with the third quarter of 2025 on the left side of the slide. Based on the outlook trends Matt mentioned earlier, we expect Ocean Transportation operating income to be meaningfully lower than the $226.9 million achieved in the third quarter of 2024. For Logistics, we expect operating income in the third quarter of 2025 to be comparable to the level achieved last year. As such, we expect consolidated operating income in the third quarter to be meaningfully lower than the prior year. On the right-hand side of the slide, we have our expectations for full year 2025.

我將從幻燈片左側的 2025 年第三季開始介紹我們的展望。根據馬特先前提到的展望趨勢，我們預計遠洋運輸的營業收入將大幅低於 2024 年第三季實現的 2.269 億美元。對於物流，我們預計 2025 年第三季的營業收入將與去年的水平相當。因此，我們預計第三季的綜合營業收入將大幅低於去年。幻燈片的右側是我們對 2025 年全年的預期。

Starting with Ocean Transportation, we expect year-over-year operating income to be higher than the guidance we provided in May, but moderately lower than the $500.9 million achieved in 2024. We also expect Logistics full year operating income to be comparable to the level achieved in the prior year. In addition to this full year operating income outlook, we expect the following for the full year: depreciation and amortization to approximate $200 million, inclusive of $26 million for dry dock amortization, interest income to be approximately $31 million and interest expense to be approximately $7 million, other income to be approximately $9 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 22% and dry-docking payments of approximately $40 million. Moving to Slide 17. The table on the slide shows our CapEx projections for the full year 2025.

從遠洋運輸開始，我們預計年比營業收入將高於我們 5 月提供的指引，但略低於 2024 年實現的 5.009 億美元。我們也預計物流全年營業收入將與去年的水平相當。除了全年營業收入展望外，我們還預計全年情況如下：折舊和攤銷約為 2 億美元，其中包括 2,600 萬美元的干船塢攤銷，利息收入約為 3,100 萬美元，利息支出約為 700 萬美元，其他收入約為 900 萬美元，有效稅率約為 22%，幹船塢付款約為 4,000 萬美元。移至投影片 17。投影片上的表格顯示了我們對 2025 年全年的資本支出預測。

Compared to what we previously provided on our first quarter call in May, our range for maintenance and other capital expenditures remains the same at $100 million to $120 million for the full year 2025. Our estimate for expected new vessel construction milestone payments in 2025 also remains unchanged at $305 million. Again, milestone payments for new vessel construction are expected to be paid from our capital construction fund, which already covers approximately 92% of the remaining obligations, excluding future interest income and accretion earned on cash deposits and treasury securities. We currently expect our only remaining cash contribution into the CCF for milestone payments to not be until 2028, and the final amount is expected to be less than $30 million. Lastly, in the third quarter, we expect to make approximately $71 million in milestone payments.

與我們在 5 月第一季電話會議上提供的數據相比，2025 年全年的維護和其他資本支出範圍保持不變，為 1 億至 1.2 億美元。我們對 2025 年新船建造里程碑付款的預期也保持不變，為 3.05 億美元。同樣，新船建造的里程碑付款預計將從我們的基本建設基金中支付，該基金已經涵蓋了剩餘債務的約 92%，不包括未來利息收入以及現金存款和國庫證券的增值。我們目前預計，我們向 CCF 支付的用於里程碑付款的唯一剩餘現金捐贈要到 2028 年，最終金額預計不到 3000 萬美元。最後，我們預計將在第三季支付約 7,100 萬美元的里程碑付款。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to Matt.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給馬特。

Thanks, Joel. In closing, we believe we are well positioned in our trade lanes and in logistics as we manage through the period of market uncertainty and volatility. It is during uncertain times like these that Matson demonstrates its unique capabilities and service qualities across our organization. With our China service, we are focused on maintaining the two fastest and most reliable transpacific services. We're also focused on being there for our customers, looking for additional opportunities to support them with world-class services and customer support as they diversify their manufacturing base and grow in an evolving marketplace.

謝謝，喬爾。最後，我們相信，在市場不確定和波動的時期，我們的貿易航線和物流處於有利地位。正是在這樣不確定的時期，美森在整個組織中展現了其獨特的能力和服務品質。透過我們的中國服務，我們致力於維護兩個最快、最可靠的跨太平洋服務。我們也致力於為客戶提供服務，尋找更多機會為他們提供世界一流的服務和客戶支援，幫助他們實現製造基礎多元化並在不斷發展的市場中成長。

And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator and ask for your questions.

說完這些，我會將電話轉回給接線生並詢問您的問題。

Jacob Lacks, Wolfe Research.

雅各‧拉克斯 (Jacob Lacks)，沃爾夫研究公司。

So you discussed expectations for lower volumes in 3Q. I think you had a couple of extra sailings a year ago. So is this just reflecting lapping those extra sailings? Or is there a bit of a utilization headwind that we should be keeping in mind as well?

所以您討論了對第三季銷售下降的預期。我認為您一年前曾有過幾次額外的航行。那麼這是否僅僅反映了那些額外的航行？或者我們也應該牢記利用率方面存在的一些阻力？

Yes. I think it's -- there's three or four factors going on here, Jake. I think the first one, we noted that in last year's numbers, there was some extra demand, as you point out in your question. Those resulted in some extra sailings as well as a very healthy freight rate environment. I know we're talking about volume here.

是的。我認為──這裡有三到四個因素，傑克。我認為第一個問題，我們注意到，在去年的數據中，存在一些額外的需求，正如您在問題中指出的那樣。這些因素導致了一些額外的航行以及非常健康的運費環境。我知道我們在這裡討論的是音量。

And then the other primary factor, although we see the consumer holding up reasonably well in this environment, retail sales are holding their own. We are understanding that many of our customers are in pretty good shape on their inventory, some of whom took advantage of these pauses to if they could work a deal with their manufacturers to bring in inventory early. And so our view is that we're going to see a peak season, but it will be relatively muted. And so those are some of the factors that are going into our thinking about Q3 year-over-year comparisons.

另一個主要因素是，儘管我們看到消費者在這種環境下表現得相當好，但零售額也保持穩定。我們了解到，許多客戶的庫存狀況都很好，其中一些客戶利用這些暫停的機會，希望能夠與製造商達成協議，並儘早引入庫存。因此，我們認為我們將迎來一個旺季，但旺季會相對平淡。這些就是我們在考慮第三季同比情況時考慮的一些因素。

Got it. That's helpful. And then it feels like we continue to see some new strings of expedited services crop up. Is this having any impact on you in the marketplace? And do you think these are -- like these certain new services have staying power in like a more persistently weaker market?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我們感覺我們繼續看到一些新的加急服務出現。這對你們的市場有影響嗎？您是否認為這些—某些新服務在持續疲軟的市場中具有持久力？

Yes, it's a good question. I think at this point, we say in our prepared remarks just a moment ago that our main focus is on maintaining number one and number two, the fastest and second fastest. I think there are three or four other carriers who are in the near expedited segment. We've talked about them before, CMA, ZIM, [Heda] and there's a couple of others. But -- and so we are seeing activity as they try to position themselves in various markets as sort of the next tranche below our expedited services.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為，在這一點上，我們剛才在準備好的發言中說過，我們的主要重點是保持第一和第二，最快和第二快。我認為還有三、四家其他承運商處於接近加急的階段。我們之前討論過它們，CMA、ZIM、[Heda] 還有其他一些公司。但是——因此，我們看到他們正在嘗試將自己定位在各個市場中，成為我們加急服務之下的下一批市場。

I think your observation is right. It's our expectation that if the SCFI spot rates remain relatively low, we're going to -- these expedited services are expensive and difficult to maintain if you're just receiving something close to the spot rate. So it would not surprise us that like we did in other down cycles, these expedited markets or carriers would likely look hard at whether they -- all those services continue to make sense for them.

我認為你的觀察是正確的。我們預計，如果 SCFI 現貨價格保持相對較低，我們將—如果您只是收到接近現貨價格的價格，這些加急服務將會很昂貴且難以維持。因此，我們不會感到驚訝，就像我們在其他下行週期中所做的那樣，這些加急市場或營運商可能會認真考慮他們——所有這些服務是否仍然對他們有意義。

Makes sense. And last one for me, and then I'll get back in the queue. I appreciate the environment is pretty uncertain today, but to the extent maybe you can think -- help us think about the shaping of the back half of the year in the context of your annual earnings guidance. Would you expect seasonality sort of the breakout between Q3 and Q4 to look something similar to the past couple of years?

有道理。這是我的最後一個發言，然後我會回到隊列中。我知道今天的環境相當不確定，但也許您可以思考一下——請幫助我們根據您的年度盈利預測來思考下半年的情況。您是否預計第三季和第四季之間的季節性突破會與過去幾年類似？

Yes, I would say so. I would say we don't expect this year to be as peaky given the starting position of our customers' inventory levels. We will see cargo that will move. We expect to see a strong Q3 sequentially or related to the quarter then usually sometime in October, we start to see most of the inventory that's going to be put into our customer supply chains for the holiday season to be on the water. And so, we'll likely see a fall down in October in a more traditional sense.

是的，我會這麼說。我想說，考慮到我們客戶的庫存水準的起始位置，我們預計今年的庫存不會達到高峰。我們將看到貨物移動。我們預計第三季業績將環比或與上一季相比表現強勁，然後通常在 10 月的某個時候，我們會開始看到大部分將在假期期間投入客戶供應鏈的庫存開始流出。因此，我們可能會看到十月以更傳統的方式下降。

So yes, that's our expectation.

是的，這是我們的期望。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯公司

I want to start a little higher level. Maybe just on the developments happening in Southeast Asia. I think last quarter, you talked about the Vietnamese service doubled pretty quickly. I'm sure it grew here further in 2Q. Just as you're seeing the catchment basin develop, what kind of infrastructure investments are needed in those markets?

我想從更高一點的水平開始。也許只是關注東南亞正在發生的事態發展。我認為上個季度您談到的越南服務成長很快。我確信它在第二季度會進一步增長。正如您所看到的，集水區正在發展，這些市場需要什麼樣的基礎設施投資？

I guess, what does the path forward look like as we figure out whatever this post-tariff or new tariff world is and how Matson can continue to maintain its leadership in that Southeast Asia part of the world?

我想，當我們弄清楚後關稅時代或新關稅時代是什麼樣子，以及美森如何繼續在東南亞地區保持領先地位時，未來的道路會是什麼樣子呢？

Yes. Okay. It's a good question. I think from us, in our approach to these markets, we're really going to be first listening to our customers. Where are they going to be moving their production if they're going -- if their goal is to move a larger percent of their manufacturing capability out of China?

是的。好的。這是個好問題。我認為，從我們的角度來看，在進入這些市場時，我們首先要傾聽客戶的意見。如果他們的目標是將更大比例的製造能力轉移出中國，那麼他們打算將生產轉移到哪裡？

And where are they going next? And then part of our strategy is we believe that over the long term in various countries, if we can have the fastest and most reliable services, not just from our main Shanghai destination and Ningbo, but from these other origins. So we're looking closely at working with feeder partners, those that have existing services or those that are willing to establish new services that have and can share -- we'll do a survey in each of these country origins -- who's the fastest out of those services directly to the West Coast? And can we beat them? So we're not going to -- our goal is not to become a generic average service offering in terms of days, it's really important for us to be fast.

他們下一步要去哪裡？我們的策略之一是，我們相信，從長遠來看，如果我們能夠在各個國家提供最快、最可靠的服務，不僅從我們的主要目的地上海和寧波，而且從其他出發地。因此，我們正在密切關注與支線合作夥伴的合作，這些合作夥伴擁有現有的服務或願意建立新服務並可以共享 - 我們將在每個國家/地區進行調查 - 誰能最快地直接提供到西海岸的服務？我們能打敗他們嗎？所以我們不會——我們的目標不是成為以天數計算的通用平均服務產品，對我們來說，快速服務非常重要。

So once we've heard from our customers, once we've determined whether we can make a competitive origin transit, if we can find a new partner or the same partner in different markets that would give us that differentiated service, and we're going to grow in those ways. The other thing I would note is, for example, in our Vietnam services, we do see cargo that moves over land from other locations like Cambodia into Vietnam. So it's not just those that can serve, but those that are in close land proximity, including a cross-border from those origins. So I think it's going to be a combination of those things. But long term, we -- our strategy is to be the most reliable and fast out of each of these origins as we evolve.

因此，一旦我們聽取了客戶的意見，一旦我們確定我們是否可以進行有競爭力的原產地運輸，如果我們可以在不同的市場找到新的合作夥伴或相同的合作夥伴來為我們提供差異化服務，我們就會以這些方式發展。我還要注意的另一件事是，例如在我們的越南服務中，我們確實看到貨物從柬埔寨等其他地方通過陸路運往越南。因此，不只是那些可以提供服務的國家，還有那些陸地距離很近的國家，包括來自這些原產地的跨國國家。所以我認為這將是這些因素的結合。但從長遠來看，我們的策略是隨著我們的發展，成為最可靠、最快速的起源。

That's helpful. And then maybe for a follow-up, just a couple financials thinking about the back half of the year. You mentioned to Jake's question that SCFI has moderated here in the third quarter. I know you're not going to guide, but directionally, would you expect your China rates to follow suit on a sequential basis? And then ocean operating margin in 2Q was stronger than expected.

這很有幫助。然後也許進行後續行動，只考慮下半年的一些財務狀況。您在回答傑克的問題時提到，SCFI 在第三季度有所放緩。我知道您不會提供指導，但從方向上看，您是否預期中國的利率會逐級跟進？第二季海洋營運利潤率高於預期。

I know we'll get the full expense detail on the 10-Q, but did you take any cost reduction actions during the quarter that should continue through the back half and into next year? Just trying to figure out what's happening on the expense side there.

我知道我們會在 10-Q 中獲得完整的費用明細，但您在本季度是否採取了任何應該持續到下半年和明年的成本削減措施？只是想弄清楚那裡的支出方面發生了什麼。

Okay, Daniel. So on the expense question side, yes, we did take some actions early in April on the heels of the original tariff announcements where we wanted to tighten our belt and took some G&A actions. And so therefore -- and those are still in place. We'd expect that to continue throughout the course of the year.

好的，丹尼爾。因此，在費用問題方面，是的，我們確實在 4 月初採取了一些行動，緊隨最初的關稅公告之後，我們想勒緊褲腰帶，並採取了一些 G&A 行動。因此——這些仍然存在。我們預計這種情況將持續一整年。

So that was part of the reason of the operating margin that you noted for Q2. The other part, of course, is it was year-over-year pricing, was strong this year on a year-over-year basis compared to the full quarter last year. Because remember, last year, the international rates, our transpacific rates really started moving up about halfway through the quarter and didn't get to the higher levels until the latter part of the quarter. So those are the two impacts on the year over year on the second quarter. In terms of your question about guidance and the outlook for the Q3 and Q4, it's really what Matt already reiterated.

所以這就是您提到的第二季營業利潤率的原因之一。當然，另一部分是與去年同期相比，今年的定價較去年同期強勁。因為請記住，去年，國際運費，我們的跨太平洋運費實際上在本季中期開始上漲，直到本季後半段才達到更高水準。這就是對第二季年比產生的兩個影響。關於您關於第三季和第四季的指導和前景的問題，馬特已經重申過了。

We feel like the domestic markets are hanging in there okay. In the China market, we're experiencing overall lower freight rates and volume. So it's going to be a more muted peak season that's baked into our thinking of that third quarter outlook that we provided.

我們感覺國內市場狀況良好。在中國市場，我們的運費和貨運量整體上處於下降趨勢。因此，這將是一個更加平靜的旺季，這已經融入了我們所提供的第三季展望。

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑富瑞。

Good update. Obviously, things have progressed quite a bit better than initially expected, at least relative to, say, three months ago. I did want to maybe just follow up a little bit on how things are progressing here quarter-over-quarter. I understand it's a little too short term. But just maybe in general, there's been a lot of volatility this year, especially in 2Q where things started slow, they ramped.

很好的更新。顯然，事情的進展比最初預期的要好得多，至少與三個月前相比是如此。我確實想稍微跟進一下這裡的季度環比進展。我知道這個期限有點太短了。但整體而言，今年的波動性很大，尤其是第二季度，一開始發展緩慢，後來又急劇上升。

You mentioned initially last quarter that April volumes were down 30% from China. They ended up being down 14.6%. Obviously, we know 3Q, as you said, is going to be lower on a year-over-year basis. But given that you're seeing so far a muted peak season, can we assume that the run rate volumes for China in this coming quarter are going to be somewhat similar to the run rate that we saw for the final 2 months of this past quarter?

您最初提到上個季度 4 月來自中國的出口量下降了 30%。最終股價下跌了 14.6%。顯然，正如您所說，我們知道第三季的銷售額同比會有所下降。但考慮到到目前為止旺季的銷售情況並不樂觀，我們是否可以假設下一季中國市場的銷售量將與上一季最後兩個月的銷售量有些相似？

Omar, it's Joel. Yes, that's a fair assumption. We do have a slightly different number of vessels in capacity this year versus last year. So there's a little bit of each weekly departure capacity that we offer compared to last year.

奧馬爾，我是喬爾。是的，這是一個合理的假設。今年我們的運力船舶數量與去年相比確實略有不同。因此，與去年相比，我們每週的出發力有所減少。

But the overall trend of what we're calling this third quarter that we continue to see here in July is consistent with the last, call it, six weeks or so from mid-May through June in terms of the demand that we're seeing. So yes, I think that's a fair way to look at it.

但就我們所看到的需求而言，我們所稱的第三季度的總體趨勢（我們在 7 月繼續看到）與過去六週（從 5 月中旬到 6 月）的趨勢是一致的。是的，我認為這是公平的看法。

And then just in terms of -- I think you mentioned in the opening remarks, the Vietnam volumes have stepped up to 21% of the China figures in the second quarter. That's up from 13%, knowing it's a bit difficult to give a really good projection. I guess maybe just one, can you remind us what it was in 2Q last year?

然後就——我想您在開場白中提到過，第二季度越南的出口量已升至中國出口量的 21%。這一數字高於 13%，但要做出真正準確的預測還是有點困難的。我想也許只有一個，你能提醒我們去年第二季的情況嗎？

And any sense of how they're progressing thus far this quarter?

您知道本季到目前為止他們的進展如何嗎？

Yes. So Matt will give some color on the Vietnam trends in general, Omar. But last year, on a sequential basis, Vietnam volumes were high single-digit kind of numbers. And so, they were at such a lower level that we were really commenting on them as we were growing that market. And then once we launched the second service in Ho Chi Minh in early April of this year and had two markets and plus the dynamics with tariffs and everything else that happened at that time, that's why we started really giving you and the investment community more direct line of sight on what those volumes were.

是的。因此，馬特將會對越南的總體趨勢進行一些闡述，奧馬爾。但去年，與上一季相比，越南的出口量僅為個位數。因此，他們的水平較低，我們在擴大該市場時實際上只是對他們進行評論。然後，當我們在今年 4 月初在胡志明市推出第二項服務並擁有兩個市場，再加上當時發生的關稅和其他一切動態時，這就是為什麼我們開始真正讓您和投資界更直接地了解這些交易量。

And then, Omar, this is Matt. On a moving forward basis into Q3 and perhaps beyond, I think it's our expectation that we will see a similar low 20%-ish mix of non-China origins as we saw -- as we got towards the end of the second quarter. And it's interesting because -- and I expect that to continue. But as things normalize, I think there's two factors that are going to define longer term, how much we're sourcing in China versus other origins. I would say the longer-term one is that it's clear that our customers are going to continue to look for ways to de-risk their sourcing from China plus 1 to perhaps multi-region or closer to end market around the world.

然後，奧馬爾，這是馬特。展望第三季乃至更遠的未來，我認為我們預計非中國來源的比例將與第二季末時類似，為 20% 左右。這很有趣，因為——而且我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。但隨著情況恢復正常，我認為有兩個因素將決定長期走勢，也就是我們從中國採購多少，從其他產地採購多少。我想說，長期來看，很明顯我們的客戶將繼續尋找方法來降低從中國採購的風險，甚至可能從多區域或更接近全球終端市場採購。

And that will inform, I think, a lot of their thinking over the longer term. But I would say in the medium term, I think what you're going to look at is where are the relative differences between tariffs, between countries. So the question is, let's just say, Vietnam stays at 20% and the US or China ends up at 30%, both big ifs, there's no model here. Is that 10% difference, I think that will be a factor in our customers' minds about the advantages and disadvantages relative to one another.

我認為，這將為他們的長期思考提供很多資訊。但我想說，從中期來看，我認為你要關注的是不同國家之間關稅的相對差異在哪裡。所以問題是，假設越南保持在 20%，而美國或中國最終達到 30%，這兩個都是很大的如果，這裡沒有模型。這 10% 的差異，我認為這將成為我們客戶心中關於彼此優點和缺點的因素。

So there's sort of a -- while we do acknowledge and believe that there will be longer-term movement out of China, we continue to believe China will be a powerhouse in terms of manufacturing capacity into the foreseeable future and also acknowledge that more cargo is likely to be sourced from elsewhere. So I know those are partly conflicting, but that's kind of what we think is going to happen.

因此，雖然我們確實承認並相信長期來看中國將出現製造業外遷，但我們仍然相信，在可預見的未來，中國將成為製造業產能的強國，同時也承認，更多的貨物可能會來自其他地方。所以我知道這些在某種程度上是相互衝突的，但這就是我們認為將要發生的事情。

And maybe just one final one for me. This is perhaps just a bit big picture, but clearly, there's a growing chorus of building ships in the US. And so far, it seems to be a lot of talk. And maybe at some point, that starts to turn into physical ordering.

對我來說也許這只是最後一個。這也許只是略顯宏大的景象，但顯然，美國造船的呼聲越來越高。到目前為止，似乎已經有很多討論。也許在某個時候，這會開始轉變為物理排序。

You mentioned earlier in the call that you've got these three ships they'll deliver here in a couple of years. You don't really need to do anything until the mid-2030s. Just maybe out of curiosity, maybe a bit early, but are you getting a sense at all that you may need to lock up a slot sooner rather than later if there starts to really become a competition for the small number of shipyard slots available here?

您之前在通話中提到，他們有三艘船，將在幾年內交付到這裡。到 2030 年代中期你其實不需要做任何事。也許只是出於好奇，也許有點早，但是，如果這裡為數不多的可用船廠艙位真的開始出現競爭，您是否感覺到您可能需要儘早鎖定一個艙位？

Yes. I think at this point, you make a couple of observations in your question. Matson supports the Trump administration's efforts to try to renew and revive shipbuilding in the US. We see those as different than Jones Act carriers in the past, we've observed in previous decades.

是的。我認為此時，您在問題中提出了幾點看法。馬森支持川普政府為振興美國造船業所做的努力。我們認為這些與過去幾十年來觀察到的瓊斯法案承運人不同。

The cost to build in the US for international trades is still quite large. So the question will there be additional support in providing construction differential subsidies or other types of things to make US construction for international trades relatively comparable to whether it's Korea or Japan or China as an alternative place to build. That's, I think, yet to be determined.

在美國建設國際貿易的成本仍然相當大。因此，問題是，是否會提供額外的支持，提供建設差別補貼或其他類型的補貼，使美國的國際貿易建設與韓國、日本或中國等其他建設地點具有相對可比性。我認為，這還有待確定。

But I think it's way too early for us to be worried about trying to fill in a slot. We do our planning. We'll likely two or three years before be looking at getting into a contract. Obviously, if those lead times look longer, that may accelerate our thinking. But at this point in time, we feel like we have plenty of time before we need to make any firm decisions in those regards.

但我認為現在擔心填補空缺還為時過早。我們做好計劃。我們可能需要兩三年的時間才能考慮簽約。顯然，如果這些準備時間看起來更長，這可能會加速我們的思考。但目前，我們覺得在我們需要就這些方面做出任何堅定決定之前，我們有足夠的時間。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Matt Cox for any further remarks.

今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將節目單交還給馬特考克斯 (Matt Cox)，以便他發表進一步的評論。

Okay. Well, thanks to everyone. I would just make one other remark before I wish everyone well for the next quarter. And it's just to repeat a point I made before the Q&A section, which is that it is encouraging for us to see how well we've held up in a very dislocated market. It is, to us, clear that our customers have placed a lot of trust in us when they need to keep production lines moving, they need to keep items on the store shelves, and we're grateful for their trust in us, and we expect that to continue.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家。在祝福大家下個季度一切順利之前，我只想再說一句話。這只是重複我在問答環節之前提出的觀點，那就是看到我們在一個非常混亂的市場中表現得如此出色，我們感到很鼓舞。對我們來說，很明顯，當客戶需要保持生產線運作、需要保持商店貨架上的商品時，他們給了我們很大的信任，我們感謝他們對我們的信任，我們希望這種信任繼續下去。

So with that, we look forward to catching up with everyone on next quarter's call. Thank you.

因此，我們期待在下個季度的電話會議上與大家見面。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。