Matson Inc (MATX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Matson's first-quarter 2025 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Justin Schoenberg, Investor Relations and Corporate Development at Matson. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Matson 2025 年第一季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製。現在，我想介紹今天節目的主持人，Matson 的投資者關係和企業發展部的賈斯汀·勳伯格 (Justin Schoenberg)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Matt Cox, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Joel Wine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides from this presentation are available for download at our website www.matson.com, under the Investors tab. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable.

謝謝。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Matt Cox；以及執行副總裁兼財務長喬爾‧懷恩 (Joel Wine)。本次演講的幻燈片可在我們的網站 www.matson.com 的「投資者」標籤下下載。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將根據聯邦證券法的含義，對預期、預測、預期或未來事件做出前瞻性陳述。我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。

We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements in the press release, the presentation slides and this conference call. These risk factors are described in our press release and position and are more fully detailed under the caption Risk Factors on Pages 12 to 23 of our Form 10-K filed on February 28, 2025, and in our subsequent filings with the SEC. Please also note that the date of this conference call is May 5, 2025, and any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Matt.

我們提醒您考慮可能導致實際結果與新聞稿、簡報和本次電話會議中的前瞻性聲明有重大差異的風險因素。這些風險因素在我們的新聞稿和立場中進行了描述，並在我們於 2025 年 2 月 28 日提交的 10-K 表格第 12 至 23 頁的「風險因素」標題下以及我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了更詳細的說明。另請注意，本次電話會議的日期是 2025 年 5 月 5 日，我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於截至該日期的假設。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。現在我將電話轉給馬特。

Thanks, Justin, and thanks to those on the call. Starting on slide 3. Our first quarter financial performance was as expected, with significantly higher year-over-year consolidated operating income. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by our China service, which benefited from the carryover of elevated freight rates from the fourth quarter of 2024, combined with healthy freight demand following the traditional post-Lunar New Year period. In our domestic trade lanes, we saw higher year-over-year volume in Hawaii and Alaska and a lower year-over-year volume in Guam.

謝謝，賈斯汀，也謝謝電話裡的所有人。從投影片 3 開始。我們第一季的財務表現符合預期，合併營業收入較去年同期大幅成長。年成長主要得益於我們的中國服務，該服務受益於 2024 年第四季起運費上漲的延續，加上傳統農曆新年後貨運需求旺盛。在我們的國內貿易航線中，夏威夷和阿拉斯加的貨運量較去年同期成長，而關島的貨運量較去年同期下降。

In logistics, our operating income was lower year-over-year, primarily due to a lower contribution from freight forwarding and transportation brokerage, partially offset by a higher contribution from supply chain management. Looking ahead, we are lowering our 2025 outlook due to the significant uncertainty regarding tariffs and global trade, regulatory measures, the trajectory of the US economy and other geopolitical factors. I will now go through the first quarter performance of our trade lanes, SSAT and logistics. So please turn to the next slide.

在物流方面，我們的營業收入較去年同期下降，主要原因是貨運代理和運輸經紀業務的貢獻較低，但供應鏈管理業務的貢獻較高部分抵消了這一影響。展望未來，由於關稅和全球貿易、監管措施、美國經濟趨勢和其他地緣政治因素存在很大的不確定性，我們下調了 2025 年的展望。我現在將介紹我們的貿易航線、SSAT 和物流第一季的表現。請翻到下一張投影片。

Hawaii container volume for the first quarter increased 3.2% year-over-year due to the dry docking of a competitor's vessel. Excluding the volume related to the dry docking of competitor's vessel, Hawaii container volume would have been roughly flat year-over-year. For the full year 2025, we expect volume to be comparable to the level in 2024, reflecting modest economic growth in Hawaii and stable market share. Please turn to slide 5. According to UHERO's February economic report, the Hawaii economy remained stable with a low unemployment rate, strong construction activity and stable tourism, offset by challenging population growth and high inflation and interest rates.

由於競爭對手的船隻進入乾船塢，夏威夷第一季的貨櫃吞吐量年增 3.2%。不計與競爭對手船隻乾船塢相關的吞吐量，夏威夷的貨櫃吞吐量與去年同期相比基本持平。對於 2025 年全年而言，我們預計銷量將與 2024 年的水平相當，這反映出夏威夷經濟的溫和成長和穩定的市場份額。請翻到投影片 5。根據 UHERO 2 月的經濟報告，夏威夷經濟維持穩定，失業率低，建築活動強勁，旅遊業穩定，但人口成長面臨挑戰，通貨膨脹和利率較高。

Hawaii is experiencing solid construction activity from both public and private sector projects including rebuilding efforts on Maui following the wildfires in 2023 with elevated demand for construction workers. With respect to tourism, international tourist rivals continue to be well below pre-pandemic levels, and tourist arrivals to Maui remains on a slow recovery path. Moving to our China service on slide 6. We saw significantly higher freight rates year-over-year as the elevated freight rates from the fourth quarter of 2024 carried into the first quarter. Matson's volume in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.4% lower year-over-year.

夏威夷的公共和私營部門專案建設活動蓬勃發展，其中包括 2023 年毛伊島山火後的重建工作，對建築工人的需求增加。就旅遊業而言，國際旅遊競爭對手的水平仍然遠低於疫情前的水平，毛伊島的遊客人數仍在緩慢復甦。轉到幻燈片 6 上的中國服務。由於 2024 年第四季度運費上漲的勢頭延續到了第一季度，我們看到運費比去年同期大幅上漲。美森 2025 年第一季的銷量年減 1.4%。

Please turn to slide 7. Currently, there is significant uncertainty regarding tariffs and global trade, regulatory measures, the trajectory of the US economy and other geopolitical factors. Since the tariffs were implemented in April, our container volume has declined approximately 30% year-over-year. Given the pronounced market decline in demand in the Transpacific in April, coupled with limited visibility to our container demand, we expect container volume and average freight rates in the second quarter to be lower year-over-year.

請翻到幻燈片 7。目前，關稅和全球貿易、監管措施、美國經濟趨勢以及其他地緣政治因素存在很大的不確定性。自四月關稅實施以來，我們的貨櫃數量比去年同期下降了約 30%。鑑於四月跨太平洋市場需求明顯下滑，加上我們的貨櫃需求可見度有限，我們預計第二季的貨櫃量和平均運費將比去年同期下降。

At the moment, it's difficult to know if these lower volume levels are transitory or will persist for a longer time in 2025. And the duration of this lower demand period will likely depend on active negotiations taking place across the supply chain and the timing of potential amendments to the tariffs. As such, for the full year 2025, we also expect container volume and average freight rates to be lower year-over-year. We continue to work closely with our Asia transshipment partners as our customers look at options to diversify and grow their manufacturing locations. Many of our customers moved to a China Plus One strategy a few years ago to diversify their operations, and we expect this trend to continue.

目前，很難知道這些較低的交易量水準是暫時的還是會在 2025 年持續更長時間。而這低需求期的持續時間可能取決於整個供應鏈的積極談判以及關稅的潛在修改時間。因此，我們預計 2025 年全年貨櫃量和平均運費將比去年同期下降。當我們的客戶尋求多樣化和擴大其製造地點的選擇時，我們將繼續與亞洲轉運合作夥伴密切合作。幾年前，我們的許多客戶都轉向了「中國加一」策略，以實現業務多元化，我們預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。

We will continue to follow our customers as they reposition and expand their manufacturing footprint in response to changing tariffs as part of our catchment basin strategy in Asia. During the first quarter, we announced a new direct service connecting Ho Chi Minh to our CLX and Mac Shanghai departures. This development is a testament to our brand recognition in Asia, and our ability to provide the fastest connecting times out of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh will be our second direct connection in Vietnam and our expansion is based on the success customer feedback we received since launching our inaugural direct service connection from Haifeng two years ago.

作為我們亞洲集水區策略的一部分，我們將繼續關注我們的客戶，幫助他們根據不斷變化的關稅重新定位和擴大製造足跡。在第一季度，我們宣布了一條連接胡志明市和我們的 CLX 和 Mac 上海出發的新直飛航班。此次發展證明了我們的品牌在亞洲的知名度，以及我們提供越南最快轉機時間的能力，胡志明市將成為我們在越南的第二個直飛航班，我們的擴張是基於我們兩年前從海豐推出首個直飛航班以來收到的成功客戶反饋。

As a result, in the near term, we set higher volume from Vietnam from transshipments as our customers manage their freight in an unsettled environment. We believe we are well positioned with multiyear transshipment relationships to scale up the services as expedited freight volume grow in the region.

因此，在短期內，由於我們的客戶在不穩定的環境中管理貨運，我們將增加從越南轉運的貨運量。我們相信，隨著該地區加急貨運量的成長，我們有能力憑藉多年的轉運關係來擴大服務規模。

We expect the uncertain environment to accelerate the diversification of our catchment basin in Asia. And in addition to Vietnam, we are already carrying freight originating in Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and the Philippines. Please turn to the next slide. We believe we're in the early innings of US-China trade negotiations and expect disruptive conditions in the transpacific with ocean carriers blanking China sailings and implementing service changes due to lower volume in response to the tariffs. We have also seen some carriers add port calls and increase capacity and allocation and strings from other Asia origins.

我們預期不確定的環境將加速我們在亞洲的集水盆地的多樣化。除了越南以外，我們也承運來自柬埔寨、泰國、印尼、馬來西亞、印度和菲律賓的貨物。請翻到下一張投影片。我們認為，我們正處於中美貿易談判的初期階段，預計跨太平洋航線將出現混亂局面，由於關稅導致貨運量下降，遠洋運輸公司將取消中國航線並實施服務變更。我們也看到一些承運商增加了港口停靠，並增加了運能、分配以及來自其他亞洲出發地的航線。

At some point though, retailers will need to restock their shelves or risk significant inventory issues. We also expect that consumer demand for e-commerce goods will continue to grow. In the meantime, we remain a trusted supply chain partner to our customers and expect to run our business like we always have with a focus on speed, on-time arrivals, early access to cargo and customer service. As I mentioned earlier, the transshipment partners in the region provide opportunities for further diversification of where our freight is originated. And lastly, we have the resources and assets to move quickly to adapt to a changing environment and find opportunities.

不過，到了某個時候，零售商將需要補充貨架，否則將面臨嚴重的庫存問題。我們也預期消費者對電子商務商品的需求將持續成長。同時，我們仍然是客戶值得信賴的供應鏈合作夥伴，並期望像往常一樣開展業務，專注於速度、準時到達、儘早獲得貨物和客戶服務。正如我之前提到的，該地區的轉運合作夥伴為我們的貨運來源地進一步多樣化提供了機會。最後，我們擁有資源和資產，可以迅速適應不斷變化的環境並尋找機會。

For the last 20 years, our China service has gone through many significant disruptive environments and time and time again, it is shown to be a critical provider of expedited ocean service to existing and new customers. I see this period of uncertainty and disruption is an opportunity for Matson to do what it does best for its customers, meeting the evolving challenges and delivering freight fast and reliably, given our competitive advantages. Please turn to the next slide. On April 17, the USTR finalized its noted under Section 301 as a follow-up to the President's executive order on April 9. The announcement confirmed that new targeted port fees will be applied to Chinese vessel owners and operators and Chinese-built vessels.

在過去的 20 年裡，我們的中國服務經歷了許多重大的顛覆性環境，並且一次又一次地證明它是向現有和新客戶提供快速海運服務的重要供應商。我認為，在這個不確定和混亂的時期，美森可以利用我們的競爭優勢，為客戶提供最擅長的服務，應對不斷變化的挑戰，快速可靠地運送貨物。請翻到下一張投影片。4 月 17 日，美國貿易代表辦公室最終確定了根據第 301 條採取的措施，作為對總統 4 月 9 日發布的行政命令的後續行動。公告確認，將對中國船東、經營者和中國建造的船舶徵收新的定向港口費。

Based on our review, we believe that Matson is part of a group of small vessel operators who received exemptions from the USTR. The USTR also proposed additional duties on ship-to-shore cranes, containers and certain chassis. The proposal is open to comment and depending on its final form, may impact how we procure our equipment. In summary, we believe that we are exempt from the USTR for now based on the size of our vessels, but will likely face higher container equipment costs in the future. We also remain negatively impacted directly by lower volume and indirectly by merchandise tariffs paid by our customers.

根據我們的審查，我們認為 Matson 是美國貿易代表辦公室豁免的一群小型船舶營運商之一。美國貿易代表辦公室還提議對岸邊起重機、貨櫃和某些底盤徵收額外關稅。該提案可供評論，並且根據其最終形式，可能會影響我們採購設備的方式。總而言之，我們認為，基於我們船舶的大小，我們目前可以免受美國貿易代表辦公室的監管，但未來可能會面臨更高的貨櫃設備成本。我們也受到銷售下降的直接負面影響以及客戶支付的商品關稅的間接負面影響。

Please turn to the next slide. In Guam, Matson's container volume in the first quarter of 2025 decreased 14.3% year-over-year. The decrease was primarily due to lower demand from retail and food and beverage segments. In the near term, we expect Guam economy to remain stable with a slow recovery in tourism, a low unemployment rate and some increase in construction activity. As such, for 2025, we expect container volume to approach the level achieved last year.

請翻到下一張投影片。在關島，美森航運2025年第一季的貨櫃吞吐量年減14.3%。下降的主要原因是零售和食品飲料行業的需求下降。短期內，我們預期關島經濟將保持穩定，旅遊業將緩慢復甦，失業率將保持在低位，建築活動將增加。因此，我們預計到 2025 年，貨櫃吞吐量將接近去年的水平。

Please turn to the next slide. In Alaska, Matson's container volume in the first quarter of 2025 increased 4.8% year-over-year. The increase was due to higher northbound volume, partially offset by an additional sailing in the year ago period. In the near term, we expect continued economic growth in Alaska, supported by low unemployment rate, jobs growth and continued oil and gas exploration and production activity. As such, for 2025, we expect container volume to be comparable to the level achieved last year.

請翻到下一張投影片。在阿拉斯加，美森航運2025年第一季的貨櫃量較去年同期成長4.8%。成長的原因是北行客流量增加，但被去年同期的額外航班所部分抵銷。短期內，我們預期阿拉斯加經濟將持續成長，得益於低失業率、就業成長以及持續的石油和天然氣勘探和生產活動。因此，我們預計 2025 年的貨櫃吞吐量將與去年的水平相當。

Please turn to slide 12. In the first quarter, our SSA Terminal joint venture contributed $6.6 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of $6.2 million. The increase was primarily due to higher lift volume. For 2025, we expect the contribution from SSAT to be lower than the $17.4 million achieved last year without taking into account the $18.4 million impairment charge at SSAT during the fourth quarter of 2024. Turning now to Logistics on slide 13.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。第一季度，我們的 SSA Terminal 合資企業貢獻了 660 萬美元，比去年同期減少 620 萬美元。成長的主要原因是升降量增加。對於 2025 年，我們預計 SSAT 的貢獻將低於去年實現的 1,740 萬美元，這不考慮 2024 年第四季 SSAT 的 1,840 萬美元減損費用。現在轉到投影片 13 上的物流。

Operating income in the first quarter came in at $8.5 million or $800,000 lower than the result in the year-ago period. The decrease was primarily due to a lower contribution from freight forwarding and transportation brokerage partially offset by a higher contribution from supply chain management. For 2025, we expect operating income to be lower than the level achieved in 2024 due to a challenging environment for all of our business lines. I will now turn the call over to Joel for a review of our financial performance. Joel?

第一季的營業收入為 850 萬美元，比去年同期低 80 萬美元。下降的主要原因是貨運代理和運輸經紀業務的貢獻較低，但被供應鏈管理業務的貢獻較高所部分抵消。由於我們所有業務線都面臨嚴峻挑戰，我們預計 2025 年的營業收入將低於 2024 年的水準。現在我將把電話轉給喬爾，讓他審查我們的財務表現。喬爾？

Thanks, Matt. Please turn to slide 14 for a review of our financial results. For the first quarter, consolidated operating income increased $45.2 million year-over-year to $82.1 million with Ocean Transportation increasing $46 million and logistics declining $800,000. The increase in Ocean Transportation operating income in the first quarter was primarily due to significantly higher freight rates in China and higher contribution from SSAT partially offset by higher direct cargo expense and operating overhead costs. The decrease in logistics operating income was primarily due to a lower contribution from freight forwarding and transportation brokerage, partially offset by a higher contribution from supply chain management.

謝謝，馬特。請翻到第 14 張投影片來查看我們的財務結果。第一季度，綜合營業收入年增 4,520 萬美元，達到 8,210 萬美元，其中遠洋運輸增加 4,600 萬美元，物流減少 80 萬美元。第一季遠洋運輸營業收入的成長主要歸因於中國運費大幅上漲以及 SSAT 貢獻增加，但直接貨運費用和營運間接成本增加部分抵銷了這一成長。物流營業收入的下降主要是因為貨運代理和運輸經紀業務的貢獻減少，但被供應鏈管理業務的貢獻增加部分抵銷。

We had interest income of $9.4 million in the quarter or $600,000 higher than last year, primarily due to higher balances of cash and cash equivalents. Interest expense in the quarter decreased $500,000 year-over-year due to the decline in outstanding debt. Net income increased 100.3% year-over-year to $72.3 million, and diluted earnings per share increased 109.6% year-over-year to $2.18 per share. Diluted weighted average shares outstanding decreased $0.04 year-over-year. Please turn to the next slide.

本季我們的利息收入為 940 萬美元，比去年同期高出 60 萬美元，主要是由於現金和現金等價物餘額增加。由於未償債務減少，本季利息支出較去年同期減少 50 萬美元。淨收入年增 100.3% 至 7,230 萬美元，每股攤薄收益年增 109.6% 至每股 2.18 美元。稀釋加權平均流通股數年減 0.04 美元。請翻到下一張投影片。

This slide shows how we allocated our trailing 12 months of cash flow generation. For the LTM period, we generated cash flow from operations of $820.2 million, from which we used $39.7 million to retire debt, $182.8 million on maintenance and other CapEx, $161.2 million on new vessel CapEx, including capitalized interest and owners' items, $65.5 million in cash deposits and interest income into the CCF, net of withdrawals from milestone payments and $13.5 million on other cash outflows, while returning $263.7 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchase. Please turn to slide 16 for a summary of our share repurchase program and balance sheet. During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 500,000 shares for a total cost of $69.2 million. Turning to our debt levels.

這張投影片展示了我們如何分配過去 12 個月的現金流。在 LTM 期間，我們產生了 8.202 億美元的經營現金流，其中我們使用 3970 萬美元償還債務，1.828 億美元用於維護和其他資本支出，1.612 億美元用於新船資本支出（包括資本化利息和船東項目），6550 萬美元的現金和利息2.637 億美元。請翻到第 16 張投影片，查看我們的股票回購計畫和資產負債表的摘要。第一季度，我們回購了約 50 萬股，總成本為 6,920 萬美元。談談我們的債務水平。

Our total debt at the end of the first quarter was $390.8 million, a reduction of $10.1 million from the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. With that, let me now turn to slide 17 and walk through our outlook for the second quarter of 2025 on the left-hand side of the page. Based on the outlooks Matt mentioned earlier, we expect Ocean Transportation operating income to be meaningfully lower than the $109 million achieved in the second quarter of 2024. We expect logistics operating income to be lower than the $15.6 million achieved in the second quarter of 2024. As such, we expect consolidated operating income in the second quarter to be meaningfully lower than the prior year.

我們第一季末的總債務為 3.908 億美元，比 2024 年第四季末減少了 1,010 萬美元。現在，請容許我翻到第 17 張投影片，在頁面左側介紹我們對 2025 年第二季的展望。根據馬特先前提到的展望，我們預計遠洋運輸的營業收入將大幅低於 2024 年第二季實現的 1.09 億美元。我們預計物流營業收入將低於 2024 年第二季實現的 1,560 萬美元。因此，我們預計第二季的綜合營業收入將顯著低於去年。

On the right-hand side of the slide, we have our expectations for full year 2025, starting with Ocean Transportation. We expect year-over-year operating income to be lower than the level achieved in the prior year with the amount dependent on the impact and timing of the global trade and macroeconomic uncertainties we have discussed on the call. For logistics, we also expect operating income to be lower than the level achieved in the prior year due to a challenging environment of all business lines.

幻燈片的右側是我們對 2025 年全年的預期，首先是遠洋運輸。我們預計，年比營業收入將低於上年的水平，具體金額取決於我們在電話會議上討論的全球貿易和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響和時間。對於物流，由於所有業務線都面臨挑戰，我們預計營業收入將低於去年的水平。

As a result, we now expect consolidated operating income to be lower than the level achieved in the prior year. In addition to this full year operating income outlook, we expect the following for the full year. Depreciation amortization to approximate $200 million, inclusive of [$6 million] for dry-docking amortization, interest income to be approximately $31 million and interest expense to be approximately $7 million, other income to be approximately $9 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 23% and dry-docking payments of approximately $40 million.

因此，我們現在預計合併營業收入將低於去年的水平。除了全年營業收入展望外，我們也對全年業績做出以下預期。折舊攤提約 2 億美元，其中包括乾船塢攤銷 [600 萬美元]，利息收入約 3,100 萬美元，利息支出約 700 萬美元，其他收入約 900 萬美元，有效稅率約為 23%，幹船塢付款約 4,000 萬美元。

Moving to slide 18. The table on the slide shows our CapEx projections for the full year of 2025. Compared to what we previously provided on our fourth quarter call in February, our range from maintenance and other capital expenditures has been lowered by $20 million to $100 million to $120 million for full year 2025. Our estimate for expected new vessel construction milestone payments in 2025 remains unchanged at $305 million.

移至幻燈片 18。投影片上的表格顯示了我們對 2025 年全年的資本支出預測。與我們在 2 月第四季電話會議上提供的資訊相比，我們將 2025 年全年的維護和其他資本支出範圍降低了 2,000 萬美元，降至 1 億至 1.2 億美元。我們對 2025 年新船建造里程碑付款的預期保持不變，仍為 3.05 億美元。

Again, milestone payments for new vessel construction are expected to be paid from our capital construction fund which already covers approximately 91% of the remaining obligations, excluding future interest income and accretion earned on cash deposits and treasury securities. We currently expect our next cash contribution into the CCF or milestone payments to not be until 2028. In the second quarter, we expect to make approximately $36 million in milestone payments from the CCF. And then in the third and fourth quarters, we expect to make milestone payments of approximately $71 million and approximately $118 million, respectively. With that, let me turn the call back over to Matt for closing remarks.

同樣，新船建造的里程碑付款預計將從我們的資本建設基金中支付，該基金已經涵蓋了剩餘債務的約 91％，不包括未來利息收入和現金存款和國庫證券的增值。我們目前預計下一次向 CCF 注入現金或支付里程碑款項要到 2028 年。在第二季度，我們預計將從 CCF 獲得約 3,600 萬美元的里程碑付款。然後在第三季和第四季，我們預計將分別支付約 7,100 萬美元和約 1.18 億美元的里程碑付款。說完這些，讓我把電話轉回給馬特，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Joel. Please turn to slide 19, where I'll go through some closing thoughts. We are navigating like many in an unsettled and rapidly evolving environment. For the last two decades, we've operated our expedited ocean service through significant periods of uncertainty and disruption. And we've come out of those periods better for it as we demonstrate what we do best for our customers, which is to be a trusted supply chain partner with a consistent, reliable and fast service. We believe we are in the early innings of US-China trade negotiations and expected deal to be reached, although timing is unclear.

謝謝，喬爾。請翻到第 19 張投影片，我將在這裡講一些結束語。我們和許多人一樣，正在一個動盪且快速變化的環境中前進。在過去的二十年裡，我們在充滿不確定性和混亂的時期經營我們的快速海運服務。我們已經走出了那段時期，並且表現得更好，因為我們向客戶展示了我們最擅長做的事情，那就是成為值得信賴的供應鏈合作夥伴，提供一致、可靠和快速的服務。我們認為，我們正處於中美貿易談判的初期，預計將達成協議，儘管具體時間尚不清楚。

At some point, the largest and second largest economies will find a way of working together. The stakes are too high for both countries. Despite the current uncertainties, we remain quietly confident in our long-term prospects due to the diversification of our business and cash flows, our focus on serving niche markets where we're an integral part of the supply chain and the strength of our balance sheet. Our businesses are durable and capable of withstanding short-term fluctuations while creating long-term shareholder value. We remain committed to maintaining the reliability of our vessel operations and providing high-quality service to our customers and the communities that rely on us.

最終，最大經濟體和第二大經濟體將會找到合作的方式。對兩個國家來說，風險都太大了。儘管目前存在不確定性，但由於我們的業務和現金流多樣化、我們專注於服務作為供應鏈不可或缺組成部分的利基市場以及我們資產負債表的強勁，我們仍然對我們的長期前景充滿信心。我們的業務持久耐用，能夠承受短期波動，同時創造長期股東價值。我們始終致力於保持船舶運作的可靠性，並為我們的客戶和依賴我們的社區提供高品質的服務。

Matson has over 140 years of operating street and has historically performed well during periods of supply chain disruption given our competitive advantages and the reliability of our services. We remain committed to looking for growth, either organically or via acquisition, and are prepared to act quickly if an opportunity presents itself during this period of uncertainty. And last, we expect to continue to return capital to shareholders through dividends and our share repurchase program. Our share repurchase program remains a core tenet of our capital allocation strategy, and we continue to expect to be steady buyers of our shares. And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator and ask for your questions.

Matson 擁有超過 140 年的街道營運歷史，憑藉我們的競爭優勢和服務的可靠性，在供應鏈中斷期間一直表現良好。我們將繼續致力於尋求成長，無論是透過內部成長還是透過收購，如果在此不確定時期出現機會，我們準備迅速採取行動。最後，我們希望繼續透過股利和股票回購計畫向股東返還資本。我們的股票回購計畫仍然是我們資本配置策略的核心原則，我們將繼續期望成為我們股票的穩定買家。說完這些，我會將電話轉回給接線生並詢問您的問題。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯。

Maybe a couple starting on the ocean side. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces here quarter-to-date, Matt. But if we think about Vietnam and the Catch Mid Basin, you've built out, just curious how much capacity is down there? I think you said you set up a second direct service in the quarter? I guess if we think about the infrastructure down there being less familiar, how much volume could you pick up if those two direct services really ramped relative to offsetting maybe what's coming out of China as we just think about what you're building and the ability to maybe expand into new markets to offset the China weakness?

也許是一對從海邊出發的情侶。顯然，本季度迄今為止，這裡發生了很多變化，馬特。但如果我們考慮越南和 Catch Mid Basin，您已經建好了，只是好奇那裡的容量有多少？我想您說過您在本季建立了第二個直銷服務？我想，如果我們考慮到那裡的基礎設施不太熟悉，如果這兩項直接服務真正增加，相對於抵消來自中國的影響，你能獲得多少交易量？我們只考慮你正在建立什麼，以及可能擴展到新市場以抵消中國疲軟的能力？

Yes. Good question. Thanks, Dan. The first thing I would say today out of Vietnam, approximately 20% of our current volumes week by week with the recent introduction of Ho Chi Minh, is originated in Vietnam. We have the ability to increase that volume to the extent that they're pretty significantly -- we're in regular dialogue with our feeder partners in Asia.

是的。好問題。謝謝，丹。今天我要說的第一件事是，來自越南的貨物，隨著最近胡志明市的貨物的引入，我們目前每週的貨物量中約有 20% 源自越南。我們有能力將這一數量大幅增加——我們正在與亞洲的支線合作夥伴保持定期對話。

They have the ability to swap out for larger vessels if needed. And meet our requirements for connection over Shanghai. So we have pretty good ability to size that up if that's where the market goes. I think it's interesting as we reflected on it because Vietnam itself, of course, has grown very rapidly in part in my prepared comments, we're talking about the increase on the China Plus One strategy that was implemented under the first Trump administration as people tended to de-risk. And Vietnam has grown rather significantly, but Vietnam has some of the same issues as many fast-growing Asian economies, they've got shortages of power, they have shortages of labor, both in the north and south.

如果需要的話，他們有能力換用更大的船。並滿足我們上海地區的連接要求。因此，我們有能力判斷市場走向。我覺得這很有趣，因為我們對此進行了反思，因為越南本身當然發展得非常迅速，在我準備好的評論中，我們正在談論第一屆川普政府實施的「中國加一」戰略的增長，因為人們傾向於降低風險。越南的發展相當顯著，但越南與許多快速成長的亞洲經濟體一樣，面臨著同樣的問題，無論是在北部還是南部，都存在電力短缺和勞動力短缺的問題。

And they're pretty busy before this significant tariff change to begin with. So it's not obvious to what extent the country itself and scale over such a short period of time. But as I said in my comments, we're going to follow our customer. If our customers are able to shift some of their production there, we will be following them. So that maybe I've over-answered your question, but we do have the ability to scale.

在這次重大關稅調整之前，他們就已經相當忙碌了。因此，在如此短的時間內，國家本身的規模和程度究竟如何還不明顯。但正如我在評論中所說，我們將遵循我們的客戶。如果我們的客戶能夠將部分生產轉移到那裡，我們也會跟隨他們。也許我過度回答了你的問題，但我們確實有能力擴大規模。

The only other thing I would say is Ho Chi Minh, our newly started service also has pretty good connection into Cambodia, where quite a bit of production is -- has been growing rather quickly as well. So as I said, we're going to follow our customers as this evolves.

我唯一想說的是胡志明市，我們新開通的服務也與柬埔寨有著很好的聯繫，那裡有相當多的產量——也成長得相當快。正如我所說，我們將關注客戶的發展。

That's helpful. And these trends shipments that are going through Shanghai show and the China containers. Maybe just to clarify, that down 30% on the quarter-to-date China volumes, is that directly out of China? Or is that including the positive effect of seemingly some probably more growth out of Vietnam?

這很有幫助。這些趨勢貨物正在透過上海展覽和中國貨櫃運輸。也許只是為了澄清一下，本季迄今為止中國銷量下降了 30%，這是否直接來自中國？或者這是否包括越南可能出現的更多成長的正面影響？

Yes. I think initially, and again, we have so few data points with which to extrapolate. But in Vietnam, initially, we saw actually out of all origins, a reduction of volume in that period as there was some uncertainty with regard to whether tariffs are going to be [rolled back] and even the temporary ones were -- it was not obvious exactly how long those are going to stay in place.

是的。我認為，最初，我們可供推斷的數據點太少了。但在越南，最初，我們看到所有來源的進口量都在減少，因為對於關稅是否會取消存在一些不確定性，即使是臨時關稅——也不清楚這些關稅將持續多久。

So we didn't -- we saw reductions out of all origins initially. In the weeks that have followed, we've seen volume out of Vietnam grow, again, partly because of the addition of our Ho Chi Minh service. But we've seen them grow back to sort of the general levels that we experienced before the discussion of tariffs.

所以我們沒有——我們最初看到所有來源的減少。在接下來的幾周里，我們看到越南的貨運量再次成長，部分原因是我們增加了胡志明市的服務。但我們已經看到它們回升至關稅討論之前的總體水平。

Great. And then maybe last one for me. Sorry for being more near term here, but I know you not want to quantify maybe pricing movements historically. But given the volatility and also the increased disclosure around 2Q volume so far, can you talk about rates and maybe how those have developed? What kind of rate pressures or actions have you seen in the market in response to these tariffs and subsequent volume drop off?

偉大的。這對我來說也許是最後一個了。抱歉，我在這裡談論的只是近期的事情，但我知道您可能不想量化歷史上的價格變動。但考慮到波動性以及迄今為止第二季交易量揭露的增加，您能否談談利率以及利率是如何發展的？針對這些關稅以及隨之而來的貿易量下降，您看到市場出現了什麼樣的利率壓力或行動？

Yes. So I would say it's been a little bit all over the place. I think what you've seen -- and I'll touch on market dynamics. And then I'll comment on Matson. But I think what we've seen is the international ocean carriers have blanked a significant amount of sailings.

是的。所以我想說，事情有點混亂了。我想你已經看到了——我將談到市場動態。然後我將對 Matson 進行評論。但我認為，我們看到的是，國際遠洋運輸公司已經取消了大量的航行。

In response to the lower -- as they attempt to resize their fleets for the lower shipments and capacity that is in demand. We've seen some ocean carriers hold the line on rates as they have seen their efforts to reduce capacity. I think we've seen, in some cases, ocean carriers have increased their rates in other non-Chinese origins. And we've also seen in some cases where we've seen lower rates in the market, and those are tracked through the SCFI, so you can kind of see, but it's interesting. We kind of -- since it's all happening in real time, the market is still in the early parts of readjusting to whatever the new normal is.

為了因應較低的需求——他們試圖調整船隊規模，以適應較低的出貨量和運力需求。我們看到一些遠洋運輸公司在努力減少運能的同時，維持運價不變。我認為我們已經看到，在某些情況下，遠洋運輸公司已經提高了其他非中國產地的運費。在某些情況下，我們還看到市場利率下降，這些都是透過 SCFI 進行追蹤的，所以你可以看到，但這很有趣。我們有點——因為這一切都是即時發生的，市場仍處於重新調整以適應新常態的早期階段。

So it's quite disruptive. I would say from Matson's perspective, and we said this in -- or Joel said it in his comments, we expect both lower rate and lower volume out of -- for the second quarter and for the full year. So we expect, again, not to be immune to these we still command a very significant premium to the market, but our rates will move in sympathy with the overall market direction.

所以這非常具有破壞性。我想從 Matson 的角度來看，我們在評論中說過這一點 - 或者 Joel 在他的評論中說過，我們預計第二季度和全年的利率和交易量都會下降。因此，我們再次預計，我們不會免受這些因素的影響，我們仍然對市場有非常大的溢價，但我們的利率將與整體市場方向同步變動。

Jacob Lacks, Wolfe Research.

雅各·拉克斯（Jacob Lacks），沃爾夫研究公司。

So with China volumes down so dramatically, does it make sense at some point to start temporarily canceling some MAX sailings similar to what we see during Lunar New Year?

那麼，鑑於中國客運量急劇下降，在某個時候開始暫時取消一些 MAX 航班是否有意義，就像我們在農曆新年期間看到的那樣？

Yes, it's a very good question. I think our view -- I think there's a duration question here. I think our brand is to not blank any sailing at any point in time because it's our view that in four to eight weeks when a lot of inventory runs out, that our customers had tried to preload or whatever the individual circumstance of our customers, cargo's going to need to move. There's a lot of activity going on right now as we understand between the manufacturers of product, the importers and the retailers about how to cover the cost of these tariffs. Our customers are loath to have empty shelves to the extent that they can help it.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題。我認為我們的觀點——我認為這裡有一個持續時間的問題。我認為我們的品牌在任何時候都不會取消任何航行，因為我們認為，在四到八週內，當大量庫存耗盡時，我們的客戶會嘗試預裝，或者無論我們客戶的個人情況如何，貨物都需要運輸。據我們了解，產品製造商、進口商和零售商之間目前正在就如何承擔這些關稅的成本展開大量活動。我們的客戶不願意看到貨架空置，只要他們能做到。

And we think that a significant amount of cargo will be moving at the last minute, and we've seen lots of changing patterns of demand as all of this capacity and supply and demand come into balance. And so it is really our goal to -- when our customers look back at this very disruptive period to know Matson and our franchise stands for on-time arrival, no blank sailings. If economic circumstances come to pass it. We need to evaluate that, then we'll evaluate it. We'll cross that bridge, but that's not at all where our heads are at right now.

我們認為，大量貨物將在最後一刻運輸，隨著所有這些運力和供需達到平衡，我們已經看到需求模式發生了許多變化。因此，我們的真正目標是——當我們的客戶回顧這段非常混亂的時期時，要知道 Matson 和我們的特許經營代表著準時到達，沒有空白航行。如果經濟情況允許的話。我們需要對此進行評估，然後我們再進行評估。我們會跨越那座橋，但這根本不是我們現在所想的。

Got it. That all makes a lot of sense. And I know it's just been a few days here, but have you seen any changes from the elimination of the mines exemption from last week and any changes you expect to see?

知道了。這一切都很有道理。我知道這才過去幾天，但是自從上週取消地雷豁免以來，您是否看到了任何變化？您預計會看到什麼變化？

Yes. I mean, I think we understood, and you may have seen the announcements of -- with [Timo], who has canceled or discontinued its direct shipments from China. Those that are all -- I guess, their strategy is really to convert itself from outwardly looking in to more of an Amazon-like model where they're going to have cargo that is going to be available in the US and to be shipped from US-based warehouses and distribution centers, different from air freighting. So there's been a significant reduction as we understand it in airfreight demand and carriage associated with (inaudible) change in business model.

是的。我的意思是，我想我們理解，而且你可能已經看到了 [Timo] 的公告，他已經取消或停止了從中國的直接發貨。這些都是——我猜，他們的策略實際上是從外向型轉變為更像亞馬遜的模式，他們將擁有在美國可用的貨物，並從美國的倉庫和配送中心發貨，這與空運不同。因此，據我們了解，由於商業模式的改變（聽不清楚），航空貨運需求和運輸量大幅減少。

So I think we do see more of that air cargo now converting into ocean, and that may be a long-term opportunity for us as e-commerce continues to grow. So that's the most obvious one that we've that we've understood this happened just over the weekend with the ending of the de minimis exemption.

因此，我認為我們確實看到越來越多的空運貨物轉向海運，隨著電子商務的持續增長，這對我們來說可能是一個長期機會。這是最明顯的現象，據我們了解，這個現象就發生在上週末，隨著最低限度豁免的結束。

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

諾克塔（Omar Nokta），傑富瑞集團。

Good discussion and a couple of questions or a couple of follow-ups from my end. And maybe just on this last point of the de minimis exemption. I know it's still very early, but do you think maybe perhaps longer term, indeed, that this could be an opportunity to grab market share, perhaps more permanently from airfreight? Is that kind of the tough process? I know it's, again, still early, but is that kind of the thinking here long term?

很好的討論，我有幾個問題或幾個後續問題。也許只是關於最低限度豁免的最後一點。我知道現在還為時過早，但您是否認為，從長遠來看，這確實是一個從空運中搶佔市場份額的機會，甚至可能是一個更持久的機會？這是一個艱難的過程嗎？我知道現在還為時過早，但這種想法是長期的嗎？

Yes. I mean I think the de minimis exemption in my personal view, is not going to be negotiated away with an eventual settlement with China. I think that's just -- that's not coming back. And so there will be -- those business models were sort of built on this exemption. And now that they're gone, it necessarily will have the effect of increasing the ocean market through the closure of this loophole.

是的。我的意思是，我個人認為，最低限度豁免不會因為與中國最終達成和解而取消。我認為那隻是——那不會再回來了。所以這些商業模式都是建立在這種豁免之上的。現在他們走了，透過堵住這個漏洞，必然會起到增加海洋市場的效果。

And a certain portion of that e-commerce, just like our other e-commerce category, we're going to get a shot at a portion of it wants to or needs to move quickly to replenish. And so I do think that's an opportunity. It will be interesting to see exactly how the air freight markets reset because there's going to be, at least in the short term, significant excess capacity for air freight that market itself will need to -- the capacity will need to move and get reoriented. So yes, but I think that change is here to stay and will produce more opportunity for the ocean carrier.

就像我們的其他電子商務類別一樣，對於電子商務的某個部分，我們將嘗試快速補充其中的一部分。所以我確實認為這是一個機會。觀察航空貨運市場究竟如何重置將會很有趣，因為至少在短期內，航空貨運將出現大量過剩運力，而市場本身也需要——運力需要轉移和重新定位。是的，但我認為這種變化將會持續下去，並將為海運承運商創造更多機會。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. Just back to the 30% decline you've seen in China volumes since the tariffs were announced in April, obviously, everything is moving very quickly. It's only been maybe four or five weeks since that liberation day. From maybe your vantage point, have you noticed any -- I know you're talking about Vietnam in the prior question, but from your perspective, have you noticed any changes from, say, on the China volume specifically for say, the first couple of weeks of April when things seem to have come to a standstill globally maybe over the past week or two, have you noticed any changes specifically on the China US?

好的。然後只是後續行動。回顧自 4 月宣布徵收關稅以來中國出口量下降 30% 的情況，顯然一切都進展得非常快。從解放那天起大概只過了四、五週。從您的有利位置來看，您是否注意到了——我知道您在上一個問題中談論的是越南，但從您的角度來看，您是否注意到中國交易量有任何變化，特別是在 4 月的前幾週，全球情況似乎已經停滯，也許在過去的一兩週，您是否注意到中國和美國有什麼變化？

Well, yes, I can make some general comments, and I want to be careful not to bring my 30% forward. These are just sort of the average two weeks. But what we understand are there are significant activities underway between our retail customers and the importers or manufacturers of this product, as I mentioned earlier, about resetting pricing, what can move at what price, how does the burden get shared between those three actors and ultimately gets passed through to the end consumer.

嗯，是的，我可以發表一些一般性的評論，但我想小心不要提前我的 30% 。這只是平均兩週的情況。但據我們了解，我們的零售客戶和該產品的進口商或製造商之間正在進行重大活動，正如我之前提到的，涉及重新設定價格、以什麼價格變動、這三個參與者如何分擔負擔並最終轉嫁給最終消費者。

And as more time has passed, in having these negotiations more cargo will begin to move. We also had noted in the trade press that some of the largest customers in the market, the big box guys who initially just held or shipped nothing are beginning now to direct cargo to move again. So I do think we'll see an eventual -- cargo needs to move. It needs -- there needs to be cargo on shelves to sell.

隨著時間的推移，透過這些談判，將會有更多的貨物開始運輸。我們也在行業媒體上註意到，市場上一些最大的客戶，那些最初只是持有或運送任何東西的大型倉儲公司，現在開始再次指揮貨物運輸。所以我確實認為我們最終會看到——貨物需要移動。它需要——需要有貨物放在貨架上來銷售。

There -- and so our view is that we will -- I don't think we'll see a normalization until the tariffs are set at a more permanent level, which it's hard to know exactly how long that process is going to take. But there is cargo moving and more cargo is moving for two reasons. One, as we get into the more traditional busier times of year.

因此，我們認為，除非關稅設定在一個更永久的水平，否則我們不會看到正常化，而很難確切知道這個過程需要多長時間。但貨物仍在運輸，而且由於兩個原因，運輸的貨物越來越多。一是，我們正進入一年中較為傳統的繁忙時期。

I would just give you one example. For example, if you're manufacturer of swimsuits, the swimsuit season is a very short one. And if you don't reach agreement over a very short period of time, whether it's that season or it's back-to-school, cargo moves and it's ordered months in advance. And so people still need to move and try to negotiate between the retailer and the different parties. And that's all going to happen.

我僅舉一個例子。例如，如果您是泳衣製造商，那麼泳衣季節就非常短。如果您在很短的時間內無法達成協議，無論是那個季節還是返校季，貨物都會移動，並且需要提前幾個月訂購。因此人們仍然需要採取行動並嘗試在零售商和各方之間進行談判。這一切都將會發生。

It's happening urgently. And some cargo will move, although it will be lower until we get to a normalization of the tariffs, which we hope happens soon.

此事正在緊急發生。有些貨物仍會運輸，儘管運輸量會較低，直到關稅恢復正常，我們希望這能盡快實現。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Nolan, Stifel.

（操作員指示） Ben Nolan，Stifel。

I appreciate it. And I also appreciate you guys being forthright with respect to sort of how this is happening. So first of all, can you maybe talk through, are there anything that you can do to sort of help mitigate. I mean, obviously, there's the catchment basin thing and picking up volumes from Vietnam, and it doesn't sound like you're going to be doing any blank sailings. But are there other things on the cost side or just anything else that can maybe a toggle that can be pulled to help offset the impact of what's going on here?

我很感激。我也感謝你們坦率地談論事情的進展。那麼首先，您能否談談，您可以做些什麼來幫助緩解這種情況。我的意思是，顯然，存在集水盆地問題以及從越南運輸量的問題，而且聽起來你不會進行任何空航。但是在成本方面是否還有其他因素，或者其他可以切換的因素，以幫助抵消此處發生的事情的影響？

Yes. I think, Ben, the question for us is what's the duration of this and what does it look like when we get back. So we've done what I think every company in the United States has done, which is we've looked at our capital spending to see which can be deferred. We've put a head count freeze in place. We've curtailed our spending levels.

是的。本，我認為我們的問題是這種情況會持續多久，以及我們回來後情況會是什麼樣子。因此，我認為我們做的和美國每家公司所做的一樣，那就是檢視我們的資本支出，看看哪些可以延後。我們已經實施了員工人數凍結。我們已經削減了支出水準。

We're doing everything we can. And while we determine where the new -- once things settle out, the hope here is that the US economy can avoid a recession. If we find ourselves in when there are other changes in costs that we could undertake. And certainly, having done this for a long time, we know how to do it.

我們正在盡一切努力。在我們確定新情況的同時──一旦情況穩定下來，我們的希望就是美國經濟能夠避免衰退。如果我們發現自己處於可以承擔的其他成本變化之中。當然，我們已經做了很長時間了，我們知道該怎麼做。

Our view now is to do those things which are obvious but allow us to retain the optionality to recover. And you'll recall from the pandemic that when the normalization occurs, there's likely to be a snapback of activity, and we want to be ready with our deployments to be able to take advantage of that when it occurs. And the bigger the snapback will be the longer that this goes on. So I think we don't want to downsize and reduce our ability if we can't put it back in place relatively quickly. And I think we get brand points for having looked back and said we didn't blank any sailings.

我們現在的觀點是做那些顯而易見的事情，但又能讓我們保留恢復的選擇權。您會記得，在疫情期間，當經濟活動恢復正常時，經濟活動可能會迅速恢復，我們希望做好部署準備，以便在經濟活動恢復正常時能夠利用這一機會。反彈越大，持續時間越長。因此，我認為，如果我們不能相對快速地恢復原狀，我們就不想縮減規模並降低我們的能力。我認為，回顧過去，我們並沒有取消任何航行，因此我們獲得了品牌點數。

We were there as a trusted partner. And I think that for the long-term value creation is there. So we'll watch this as it goes. We're not making any permanent decisions. Everybody is kind of flexing and we're -- obviously, every company, including ours, has been doing a lot of planning and strategic planning and scenario planning. So we're not going to -- we're going to act when it's appropriate, and it's obvious that we need to do something and are not afraid to do that.

我們是值得信賴的合作夥伴。我認為這有利於長期價值的創造。因此我們會密切關注此事的進展。我們不會做出任何永久性的決定。每個人都在靈活變通，我們——顯然，包括我們在內的每家公司都在做大量的規劃、策略規劃和情境規劃。所以我們不會——我們會在適當的時候採取行動，很明顯我們需要做點什麼，而且我們不怕這樣做。

Okay. And I think I know the answer, but is it possible. I know you said 30% volume decline in April. Is it possible to contextualize what that might -- would mean with respect to your operating income in the Marine Transportation business?

好的。我想我知道答案，但這可能嗎？我知道您說過 4 月銷量下降了 30%。是否可以具體說明這對您的海運業務的營業收入意味著什麼？

Ben, it's Joel. I'll take that one. So we won't give anything specific, but the 30% decline, you can look at our numbers, that's a year-over-year phenomenon that we quoted in April. So the best way I can contextualize it for you is to say, look at our second quarter numbers last year, assume April is down 30% year-over-year.

本，我是喬爾。我要那個。因此，我們不會給出任何具體數據，但 30% 的下降，你可以看看我們的數據，這是我們在 4 月引用的同比現象。因此，我能為您描述的最好方式是，看看我們去年第二季的數據，假設 4 月的數據比去年同期下降了 30%。

And then and then make your own estimates of what we think the rest of the quarter will be for our China business. And then, of course, layer on what you think the incremental contribution would be, and that would be the consolidated operating income impact of it. So that's the best way to think through it and conceptualize it.

然後，您再自行估計我們認為本季剩餘時間我們中國業務的狀況。然後，當然，再考慮一下您認為增量貢獻是多少，這就是它對合併營業收入的影響。這是思考和概念化它的最佳方式。

But the only other thing, Ben, this is Matt, that I would say is at this point, we don't know if this 30% won't gradually get better. We don't know if China and the US may pause these tariffs or take a big step backwards or to some other level before the end of the quarter. And that may cause some changes. So it's frankly, everyone's crystal ball is a little out cloudy at this point. But as Joel mentioned, that's the approach that you should take algebraically to try to figure out how you might -- how we might look.

但本，我是馬特，我唯一想說的是，目前我們不知道這 30% 是否會逐漸好轉。我們不知道中國和美國是否會在本季結束前暫停這些關稅，或大幅後退，或達到其他水準。這可能會引起一些變化。所以坦白說，現在每個人的水晶球都有點模糊了。但正如喬爾所提到的，你應該採用代數方法來嘗試弄清楚你可能會是什麼樣子——我們可能會是什麼樣子。

Right. Okay. And then if I could sneak one last in. You talked about 20% of the volume that's running through China, originating in Vietnam. Is there any thinking about maybe running a direct shipment from Vietnam?

正確的。好的。然後如果我能最後偷偷溜進去的話。您談到了流經中國的貨物中有 20% 源自越南。有沒有考慮過直接從越南出貨？

Yes. I think, Ben, we think that the feeder strategy with our trusted partners, feeder partners in the region, give us the ability out of Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh to have the fastest service to the US West Coast even with the feeder connections because the feeder connections in Shanghai arrive immediately before our departure. So do we have the ability to move ships around, certainly, we do, by definition, we do. But I think we have -- we can have our cake and eat it too in the sense that we still will have the fastest connections in Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh through our feeder network and still retain the capacity to depart from those ports on which we have very long-standing relationships, and they provide us simply outstanding service.

是的。本，我認為，我們與值得信賴的合作夥伴、該地區的支線合作夥伴制定的支線策略，使我們有能力從海防和胡志明市出發，以最快的速度為美國西海岸提供支線服務，因為上海的支線在我們出發前就到達了。那我們是否有能力調動船隻呢？當然有，從定義上來說，我們有。但我認為我們可以魚與熊掌兼得，因為我們仍然可以透過支線網絡在海防和胡志明市獲得最快的連接，並且仍然保留從我們與之有著長期合作關係的港口出發的能力，而且它們為我們提供了卓越的服務。

Let me answer it a different way too. There is significant congestion at the large ports in Vietnam. And we have -- we don't have long-standing relationships. So our own vessels may go there, and we may not be able to move as effectively or as reliably as we do these smaller ports for the feeder vessels that we're currently operating. So that's just another way to say the same thing.

讓我也用不同的方式來回答這個問題。越南大型港口出現嚴重擁擠。而且我們之間並沒有長期的合作關係。因此，我們自己的船隻可能會去那裡，而且我們可能無法像我們目前正在運營的支線船隻那樣有效或可靠地移動這些較小的港口。這只是表達同一件事的另一種方式。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to management for any further remarks.

今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將該計劃交還給管理層，以便提出進一步的意見。

Okay. Well, thanks for your attention today. We look forward to connecting with you at the end of the next quarter. Thank you.

好的。好吧，感謝您今天的關注。我們期待在下個季度末與您聯繫。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。