Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, April 27, 2023.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 MAA 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於今天 2023 年 4 月 27 日錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA, for opening comments. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 MAA 高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer 發表評論。請繼續。

Thank you, Phyllis, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team also participating on the call with me this morning are Eric Bolton, Tim Argo, Al Campbell, Rob DelPriore, Joe Fracchia and Brad Hill.

謝謝你，Phyllis，大家早上好。我是 Andrew Schaeffer，MAA 的財務主管兼資本市場總監。管理團隊的成員今天早上也參加了與我的電話會議，包括埃里克博爾頓、蒂姆阿爾戈、阿爾坎貝爾、羅伯德爾普里奧、喬弗拉基亞和布拉德希爾。

Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our '34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.

在我們今天早上開始發表我們準備好的評論之前，我想指出，作為這次討論的一部分，公司管理層將發表前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們的預測存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您參考昨天的收益發布中的前瞻性陳述部分和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 '34 法案文件，其中描述了可能影響未來結果的風險因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.

在這次電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。在我們的收益發布和補充財務數據中可以找到最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的介紹以及非 GAAP 和可比的 GAAP 措施之間差異的調節。我們的收益發布和補充目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的投資者頁面上獲取。今天晚些時候，我們的網站上也將提供我們準備好的評論副本和此次電話會議的錄音。在準備好一些簡短的評論後，管理團隊將可以回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Eric.

我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. As detailed in our earnings release, first quarter results were ahead of expectations as solid demand for apartment housing continues across our portfolio. Consistent with the trends that we've seen for the past couple of years, solid employment conditions, positive net migration trends and the high cost of single-family ownership are supporting continued demand for apartment housing across our portfolio. And while new supply deliveries are expected to run higher over the next few quarters, we continue to see net positive absorption across our portfolio. We believe that MAA's more affordable price point, coupled with the unique diversification strategy, including both large and secondary markets, further supported by an active redevelopment program, will help mitigate some of the pressure from higher new supply in several of our markets.

謝謝，安德魯，早上好。正如我們在財報中詳述的那樣，由於我們的投資組合對公寓住房的強勁需求持續存在，因此第一季度業績超出預期。與我們過去幾年看到的趨勢一致，穩固的就業條件、積極的淨移民趨勢和單戶住宅的高成本正在支持我們投資組合中對公寓住房的持續需求。雖然預計未來幾個季度新供應交付量會增加，但我們繼續看到我們的產品組合出現淨正吸收。我們認為，MAA 更實惠的價格點，加上獨特的多元化戰略，包括大型和二級市場，以及積極的重建計劃的進一步支持，將有助於減輕我們幾個市場中更高的新供應帶來的一些壓力。

As outlined in our earnings release, our team is capturing steady progress and strong results from our various redevelopment and unit interior upgrade programs. We are on target to complete over 5,000 additional unit interior upgrades this year in addition to completing installation of new smart home technology for the entire portfolio. We're also making great progress with our more extensive property repositioning projects, with the projects completed to date capturing NOI yields in the high teens on incremental capital investment. These projects, coupled with a number of new technology initiatives, should provide additional performance upside from our existing portfolio. Our new development and lease-up pipeline is performing well, and we remain on track to start 4 new development projects later this year.

正如我們在收益報告中所概述的那樣，我們的團隊正在從我們的各種重建和單元內部升級計劃中取得穩步進展和強勁成果。除了為整個產品組合安裝新的智能家居技術外，我們的目標是今年完成 5,000 多個單元的內部升級。我們在更廣泛的房地產重新定位項目方面也取得了很大進展，迄今為止完成的項目在增量資本投資中獲得了十幾歲的 NOI 收益率。這些項目，再加上一些新技術舉措，應該會為我們現有的產品組合提供額外的性能提升。我們的新開發和租賃管道表現良好，我們仍有望在今年晚些時候啟動 4 個新開發項目。

Our various lease-up projects have achieved rents that are close to 11% ahead of pro forma. We did not close on any acquisitions or dispositions during the quarter, but continue to believe that transaction activity will pick up over the summer and have kept our assumptions for the year in place. The portfolio is well positioned for the important summer leasing season. Total occupancy exposure at the end of the quarter, which is a combination of current vacancy plus notices to move out, is consistent with where we stood at the same point last year.

我們的各種租賃項目的租金比預估高出近 11%。本季度我們沒有完成任何收購或處置，但仍然相信交易活動將在夏季回升，並保持我們對今年的假設不變。該投資組合為重要的夏季租賃季節做好了充分準備。本季度末的總入住率，即當前空置率加上搬遷通知的組合，與我們去年同期的水平一致。

In addition, leasing traffic remains solid, with on-site visits in comparison to the number of exposed units that we have is actually running slightly ahead of prior year. A number of new leasing tools that we implemented over the course of last year should continue to support stronger execution, and our teams are well prepared for the upcoming summer leasing season.

此外，租賃流量保持穩定，與我們實際擁有的暴露單位數量相比，現場訪問量略高於去年。我們在去年實施的一些新租賃工具應該會繼續支持更強大的執行力，我們的團隊已經為即將到來的夏季租賃季做好了充分準備。

I want to thank our associates for their hard work over the last few months to position us for continued solid performance over the balance of the year. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments, and I'll now turn the call over to Tim.

我要感謝我們的同事在過去幾個月的辛勤工作，使我們在今年餘下的時間裡繼續保持穩健的表現。這就是我準備好的評論的全部內容，現在我將把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Same-store growth for the quarter was ahead of our expectations with stable occupancy, low resident turnover and rent performance slightly ahead of what we expected. Blended lease-over-lease pricing of 3.9% reflects the normal seasonality pattern that we expected. And while we did return to a more typical seasonal pattern in Q1, it is worth noting that the blended lease-over-lease pricing captured was higher than our typical Q1 performance. As discussed last quarter, we expected new lease pricing to show typical seasonality, and that the renewal pricing, which lagged new lease pricing for much of 2022, would provide a catalyst to first quarter pricing performance. This played out as expected, with new lease pricing down slightly at negative 0.5%, and renewal pricing increasing positive 8.6%.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早上好。本季度的同店增長超出我們的預期，入住率穩定，居民營業額低，租金表現略高於我們的預期。 3.9% 的混合租賃定價反映了我們預期的正常季節性模式。雖然我們確實在第一季度恢復了更典型的季節性模式，但值得注意的是，所捕獲的混合租賃定價高於我們典型的第一季度表現。正如上個季度所討論的那樣，我們預計新租賃定價將顯示出典型的季節性，而在 2022 年的大部分時間裡落後於新租賃定價的續約定價將為第一季度的定價表現提供催化劑。正如預期的那樣，新租賃價格小幅下降 0.5%，續租價格上漲 8.6%。

Alongside the strong pricing performance, average daily occupancy remained steady at 95.5% for the first quarter, contributing to overall same-store revenue growth of 11%. The various demand factors we monitor were strong in the first quarter and continued that way into April. 60-day exposure, which represents all current vacant units plus those units with notices to vacate over the next 60 days, at the end of Q1 was largely consistent with prior year at 7.7% versus 7.9% in the first quarter of last year. Furthermore, in the first quarter, lead volume was higher than last year and quarterly resident turnover was down, driving the 12-month rolling turnover rate down 30 basis points from 2022.

除了強勁的定價表現外，第一季度平均每日入住率穩定在 95.5%，推動同店整體收入增長 11%。我們監測的各種需求因素在第一季度表現強勁，並一直持續到 4 月份。 60 天空置率，即所有當前空置單元加上通知將在未來 60 天內搬出的單元，在第一季度末與去年同期基本持平，為 7.7%，而去年第一季度為 7.9%。此外，在第一季度，鉛量高於去年，季度居民流動率下降，導致 12 個月的滾動流動率比 2022 年下降 30 個基點。

April to-date trends remain consistent as exposure remains in line with the prior year, and occupancy has remained steady at 95.5%. Blended lease-over-lease pricing effective in April is 4.1% with new lease pricing beginning to accelerate, up 110 basis points from March at plus 0.2%, and renewal pricing remaining strong at 7.9%. We expect renewal pricing to moderate some against tougher comps as we move into the late spring and summer, but simultaneously expect some seasonal acceleration in new lease-over-lease rates. We expect new supply in several of our markets to remain elevated in 2023, putting some pressure on rent growth. But as mentioned, the various demand indicators remain strong, and we expect our portfolio to continue to benefit from population growth, new household formations and steady job growth.

4 月至今的趨勢保持一致，因為風險敞口與去年持平，入住率穩定在 95.5%。 4 月份有效的混合租賃定價為 4.1%，新租賃定價開始加速，比 3 月份上漲 110 個基點，上漲 0.2%，續租定價保持強勁，為 7.9%。隨著我們進入春末和夏季，我們預計續訂價格會相對於更嚴格的補償有所緩和，但同時預計新的租賃利率會出現一些季節性加速。我們預計 2023 年我們幾個市場的新增供應將保持高位，給租金增長帶來一定壓力。但如前所述，各種需求指標依然強勁，我們預計我們的投資組合將繼續受益於人口增長、新家庭組建和穩定的就業增長。

In addition, we expect resident turnover to remain low as single-family affordability challenges support fewer move-outs.

此外，我們預計居民流動率將保持較低水平，因為單戶住宅的負擔能力挑戰支持搬遷的減少。

MAA's unique market diversification of portfolio strategy, coupled with a more affordable price point as compared to the new product being delivered, also helps lessen some of the pressures surrounding higher new supply deliveries.

MAA 獨特的市場多元化投資組合戰略，加上與交付的新產品相比更實惠的價格點，也有助於減輕圍繞更高新供應交付的一些壓力。

During the quarter, we continued our various product upgrade initiatives. This includes our interior unit redevelopment program, our installation of smart home technology and our broader amenity-based property repositioning program. For the first quarter of '23, we completed over 1,300 interior unit upgrades and installed over 18,000 smart home packages. We now have about 90,000 units with smart home technology, and we expect to finish out the remainder of the portfolio in 2023.

本季度，我們繼續開展各種產品升級計劃。這包括我們的內部單元重建計劃、我們的智能家居技術安裝和我們更廣泛的基於設施的物業重新定位計劃。在 2023 年第一季度，我們完成了 1,300 多個室內單元升級並安裝了 18,000 多個智能家居套件。我們現在擁有約 90,000 套採用智能家居技術的產品，我們預計將在 2023 年完成剩餘的產品組合。

For our repositioning program, leases have been fully or partially repriced at the first 13 properties in the program, and the results have exceeded our expectations with yields on cost in the upper teens. We have another 7 projects that will begin repricing in the second and third quarters and are evaluating an additional group of properties to potentially begin construction later in 2023.

對於我們的重新定位計劃，該計劃的前 13 個物業的租賃已全部或部分重新定價，結果超出了我們的預期，成本收益率在十幾歲以上。我們還有另外 7 個項目將在第二和第三季度開始重新定價，並且正在評估另外一組可能在 2023 年晚些時候開始建設的項目。

Those are all of my prepared comments. I'll now turn the call over to Brad.

這些都是我準備好的評論。我現在將電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. While operating fundamentals across our platform have remained consistent, as Tim just outlined, transaction volume remains muted due to a lack of for-sale inventory on the market. For high-quality, well-located properties, bidding is strong and available capital is aggressively competing in order to win the bid and put capital to work. This strong relative investor demand, coupled with often favorable in-place financing, continues to support stronger-than-expected cap rates on closed transactions.

謝謝蒂姆，大家早上好。正如 Tim 剛剛概述的那樣，雖然我們平台的運營基本面保持一致，但由於市場上缺乏待售庫存，交易量仍然低迷。對於優質、位置優越的物業，競標很激烈，可用資金正在積極競爭，以贏得投標並投入資金。這種強勁的相對投資者需求，加上通常有利的就地融資，繼續支持已完成交易的上限利率高於預期。

Having said that, we believe the need to sell increases as the year progresses, and it's likely that more compelling acquisition opportunities will materialize later in the year.

話雖如此，我們認為隨著時間的推移，出售的需求會增加，而且更有吸引力的收購機會可能會在今年晚些時候出現。

Therefore, we have maintained our acquisition forecast for the year, but have pushed the timing back a couple of months. Our acquisition team remains active in the market, and Al and his team have our balance sheet in great shape and ready to support our transaction needs. The properties managed by our lease-up team continue to outperform our original expectations, generating higher earnings and creating additional long-term value. To date, our new lease-up properties' performance does not appear to be impacted by increased supply pressures. As Eric mentioned, these properties have achieved rents nearly 11% above our original expectations. During the first quarter, we began pre-leasing at our Novel Daybreak community in Salt Lake City, and early leasing demand is extremely strong, with the property currently 11.5% pre-leased at rents well ahead of our expectations.

因此，我們維持了今年的收購預測，但將時間推遲了幾個月。我們的收購團隊在市場上保持活躍，Al 和他的團隊擁有良好的資產負債表，隨時可以支持我們的交易需求。我們的租賃團隊管理的物業繼續超出我們最初的預期，產生了更高的收益並創造了額外的長期價值。迄今為止，我們新租賃物業的表現似乎並未受到供應壓力增加的影響。正如 Eric 所說，這些物業的租金比我們最初的預期高出近 11%。第一季度，我們在鹽湖城的 Novel Daybreak 社區開始預租，早期租賃需求非常強勁，目前該物業的租金預租率為 11.5%，遠超我們的預期。

Predevelopment work continues to progress on a number of projects, 4 of which should start construction in the back half of 2023: 2 in-house developments, 1 located in Orlando and 1 in Denver, and 2 prepurchased joint venture developments, 1 located in Charlotte and the other a Phase 2 to our West Midtown development in Atlanta. During the first quarter, we purchased a Phase 2 land site to our Packing District project in Orlando, Florida, bringing our future development projects owned or under construction to 12, representing over 3,300 units.

許多項目的前期開發工作繼續取得進展，其中 4 個項目將於 2023 年下半年開始建設：2 個內部開發項目，1 個位於奧蘭多，1 個位於丹佛，2 個預購合資開發項目，1 個位於夏洛特另一個是我們在亞特蘭大的 West Midtown 開發項目的第二階段。第一季度，我們為佛羅里達州奧蘭多的 Packing District 項目購買了二期土地，使我們擁有或在建的未來開發項目達到 12 個，代表超過 3,300 個單元。

Over the past few months, we have seen an increase in inbound prepurchase development opportunities due to a substantial decline in the availability of both debt and equity capital for new developments. We remain disciplined and selective in our review process, but we are hopeful these calls will lead to additional currently unidentified development opportunities. Any project we start over the next 12 to 18 months would likely deliver in 2026 or 2027, and should be well positioned to capitalize on what we believe is likely to be a much stronger leasing environment, reflective of the significant slowdown in new starts that we expect to continue to see over the balance of 2023 and 2024.

在過去的幾個月裡，由於新開發項目的債務和股權資本的可用性大幅下降，我們發現入境預購開發機會有所增加。我們在審查過程中保持紀律和選擇性，但我們希望這些電話會帶來更多目前尚未確定的發展機會。我們在未來 12 到 18 個月內啟動的任何項目都可能會在 2026 年或 2027 年交付，並且應該做好充分準備，以利用我們認為可能會更加強勁的租賃環境，這反映了我們認為新開工的顯著放緩預計將在 2023 年和 2024 年的剩餘時間裡繼續看到。

Our construction management team remains focused on completing and delivering our 6 under construction projects and are doing a tremendous job managing these projects and working with our contractors to minimize inflationary and supply chain pressures on our development costs and our schedules. We have 2 projects that we'll be delivering units during the second quarter, Novel Daybreak in Salt Lake City, which delivered 6 units late in the first quarter, and Novel West Midtown in Atlanta.

我們的施工管理團隊仍然專注於完成和交付我們的 6 個在建項目，並且正在管理這些項目並與我們的承包商合作，以最大限度地減少通貨膨脹和供應鏈對我們的開發成本和進度的壓力。我們有 2 個項目將在第二季度交付單位，鹽湖城的 Novel Daybreak 在第一季度末交付了 6 個單位，以及亞特蘭大的 Novel West Midtown。

That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. And with that, I'll turn it over to Al.

這就是我準備好的評論的全部內容。然後，我將把它交給 Al。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Reported core FFO per share of $2.28 for the quarter was $0.06 above the midpoint of our quarterly guidance. About half of this favorability was related to the timing of certain expenses, which are now expected to be incurred over the remainder of the year, primarily related to real estate taxes. Operating fundamentals overall were slightly favorable to expectations for the quarter, producing about $0.01 per share of favorability. And the remaining outperformance is related to overhead and net interest costs for the quarter.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家早上好。本季度報告的每股核心 FFO 為 2.28 美元，比我們季度指導的中點高出 0.06 美元。大約一半的優惠與某些費用的時間安排有關，這些費用現在預計將在今年剩餘時間發生，主要與房地產稅有關。整體運營基本面略有利於本季度的預期，產生每股約 0.01 美元的好感度。其餘的出色表現與本季度的間接費用和淨利息成本有關。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape, providing both protection from market volatility and capacity for strong future growth. We received an upgrade from Moody's during the quarter, bringing our investment-grade rating to the A3 or A- level with all 3 agencies. We expect the favorable ratings to have a growing positive impact on our cost of capital as we work through future debt maturities.

我們的資產負債表保持良好狀態，既提供了市場波動保護，也提供了未來強勁增長的能力。我們在本季度獲得了穆迪的升級，將我們所有 3 家機構的投資評級提升至 A3 或 A- 級。我們預計，隨著我們努力應對未來的債務到期日，有利的評級將對我們的資本成本產生越來越大的積極影響。

During the quarter, we also closed on the settlement of our forward equity agreement, providing approximately $204 million net proceeds towards funding our development and other capital needs. We funded $38 million of redevelopment, repositioning and smart home installation costs during the quarter, producing solid yields. We also funded just over $65 million of development costs during the quarter toward the projected $300 million for the full year.

在本季度，我們還完成了遠期股權協議的結算，提供了大約 2.04 億美元的淨收益，用於資助我們的發展和其他資本需求。我們在本季度資助了 3800 萬美元用於重新開發、重新定位和智能家居安裝成本，產生了可觀的收益。我們還在本季度為預計的全年 3 億美元資助了超過 6500 萬美元的開發成本。

As Brad mentioned, we expect to start several new deals later this year and early next year, likely expanding our development pipeline to over $1 billion, for which our balance sheet is -- remains well positioned to support.

正如 Brad 所提到的，我們預計將在今年晚些時候和明年初開始幾筆新交易，可能會將我們的開發渠道擴大到超過 10 億美元，為此我們的資產負債表 - 仍然能夠很好地支持。

We ended the quarter with record low leverage, our debt to EBITDA of 3.5x, with over $1.4 billion of combined cash and available capacity under our credit facility, with 100% of our debt fixed against rising interest rates for an average of 7.7 years and with minimal near-term debt maturities.

我們以創紀錄的低杠桿率結束了本季度，我們的債務與 EBITDA 之比為 3.5 倍，我們的信貸額度下的現金和可用產能合計超過 14 億美元，我們 100% 的債務以平均 7.7 年的利率上升為固定期限，並且短期債務到期最少。

And finally, in order to reflect the first quarter earnings performance, we are increasing our core FFO guidance for the full year to a midpoint of $9.11 per share, which is a $0.03 per share increase. We're also slightly narrowing the full year range to $8.93 and $9.29 per share. Given that the majority of the Q1 same-store outperformance was timing related and the bulk of the leasing season is ahead of us, we are maintaining our same-store guidance ranges as well as all of the key ranges for the year.

最後，為了反映第一季度的收益表現，我們將全年的核心 FFO 指引上調至每股 9.11 美元的中點，即每股增加 0.03 美元。我們還將全年範圍略微縮小至每股 8.93 美元和 9.29 美元。鑑於第一季度同店業績的大部分錶現與時間相關，並且大部分租賃季節都在我們面前，我們維持我們的同店指導範圍以及今年的所有關鍵範圍。

So that's all we have in the way of prepared comments. Of course, we will now turn the call back over to you for questions.

這就是我們準備好的意見的全部內容。當然，我們現在會將電話轉回給您提問。

Course, we'll now turn the call back over to you for questions.

當然，我們現在會將電話轉回給您提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Kim, John, with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們將從 BMO Capital Markets 的 Kim, John 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Eric and Tim both mentioned in your prepared remarks that the more affordable price point is one of the reasons why you have such strong demand. And I'm wondering if there's any notable difference between your A and B product as far as demand or performance?

Eric 和 Tim 在您準備好的發言中都提到，更實惠的價格點是您有如此強勁需求的原因之一。我想知道您的 A 和 B 產品在需求或性能方面是否存在顯著差異？

Yes, John, this is Tim. I mean we are seeing a little bit of a diversion, not significant, I would say, in Q1. Our what you might call our more B assets were about 70 basis points or so higher on blended pricing versus the more A and some things -- part of it is some of the price point. And certainly, to the extent we've seen some supply pressure, more of it's coming in typically in the more urban or A style types of assets.

是的，約翰，這是蒂姆。我的意思是我們在第一季度看到了一點點轉移，但並不重要。我們所謂的更多 B 資產在混合定價方面比更多的 A 和一些東西高出大約 70 個基點左右——其中一部分是一些價格點。當然，就我們已經看到的一些供應壓力而言，更多的供應壓力通常來自更城市化或 A 類資產。

Okay. My second question is on the premiums that you're getting on renewals versus the new leases signed. I think it was 900 basis points in the first quarter, a little bit lower than 800 basis points in the second quarter so far. It still seems like a record amount as far as that premium you're getting. And I'm wondering when you think it goes back to the norm. At what level do you think it's fair premium on renewals?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於續簽與新簽訂的租約的保費。我認為第一季度是 900 個基點，比第二季度到目前為止的 800 個基點低一點。就您獲得的保費而言，這似乎仍然是一個創紀錄的數額。我想知道你認為什麼時候會恢復正常。您認為在什麼水平上續訂是合理的溢價？

Yes. I mean we talked about a little bit last quarter that we knew with kind of the unusual circumstances of last year, where new lease pricing was ahead of renewal pricing for the bulk of 2022, that set us up with some good comps and some opportunity on the renewal side, particularly in the first, call it, 5, 6 months in 2023. And so that's definitely what we've seen. I think as we get a little further in, you'll see it moderate to more normal. I think it'd probably get down to the 6% or so range over the next few months, but don't expect it to be too volatile. We still think renewals will outpace new leases, but get into a little bit more normalized range.

是的。我的意思是我們在上個季度談了一些我們知道的去年的異常情況，在 2022 年的大部分時間裡，新的租賃定價領先於續約定價，這為我們提供了一些好的補償和一些機會續約方面，特別是在第一方面，稱之為 2023 年的 5、6 個月。所以這絕對是我們所看到的。我認為隨著我們進一步深入，您會看到它從中度到更正常。我認為它可能會在接下來的幾個月內下降到 6% 左右的範圍，但不要指望它會過於波動。我們仍然認為續約將超過新租約，但會進入更正常化的範圍。

And we'll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital.

我們將從 Austin Wurschmidt 和 KeyBanc Capital 提出下一個問題。

Eric, you have highlighted that the price point does provide you some insulation as it relates to new supply. And certainly, job growth has surprised to the upside earlier this year. If we start to see job growth slow, does that become more concerning as supply begins to ramp? And does pricing power just become more challenging for you later this year and maybe into early 2024?

埃里克，你強調了價格點確實為你提供了一些絕緣，因為它與新供應有關。當然，今年早些時候就業增長出乎意料地好轉。如果我們開始看到就業增長放緩，隨著供應開始增加，這是否會變得更加令人擔憂？今年晚些時候，也許到 2024 年初，定價權對你來說是否會變得更具挑戰性？

Well, Austin, certainly, if we see the employment markets pull back in any material way, that will have an effect on demand at some level. I think that we've been through those periods before where the employment markets get much weaker. And there's no doubt that such a scenario does have an effect on demand. Having said that, we're in, I think, a unique -- all these cycles have their own sort of unique elements to them. And in this particular cycle, the -- what we see happening in the single-family market and the lack of single-family affordability is clearly working in our favor right now.

好吧，奧斯汀，當然，如果我們看到就業市場以任何實質性方式回落，那將在某種程度上對需求產生影響。我認為我們經歷過就業市場變得更加疲軟的那些時期。毫無疑問，這種情況確實會對需求產生影響。話雖如此，我認為我們處於一個獨特的狀態——所有這些週期都有它們自己的獨特元素。在這個特定的周期中，我們在單戶市場上看到的情況以及單戶負擔能力的缺乏顯然對我們有利。

And I would also suggest to you that in the event of a recession where there is weakness in the employment markets, what really helps us, at least on a relative basis, I think, is the fact that we are oriented in the Sunbelt. I think these Sunbelt markets have demonstrated historically an ability to weather downturn more so than some of the higher-density coastal markets that tend to be more dominated by financial services, insurance and banking. The diversification that we have in our -- that's one of the slides in our presentation deck, that you can look at the latest presentation deck, that really gives some insight on the diversification we have, not only in markets but also in the employment sectors that we cater to that our residents work in. And I think that diversification, coupled with the Sunbelt, some of the other things that are relating to single family and so forth, while I think a recession certainly creates concern for everybody in the apartment sector, I think that I'm confident, as we have historically always done in downturns, that we'll likely hold up better.

我還建議你，如果經濟衰退導致就業市場疲軟，我認為，至少在相對基礎上，真正幫助我們的是我們面向陽光地帶的事實。我認為這些陽光地帶市場在歷史上表現出比一些密度更高的沿海市場更能抵禦經濟低迷的能力，這些市場往往更受金融服務、保險和銀行業的支配。我們的多元化——這是我們演示文稿中的一張幻燈片，你可以看看最新的演示文稿，它確實讓我們對我們的多元化有了一些了解，不僅在市場上，而且在就業領域我們迎合了我們居民工作的需求。我認為多元化，加上陽光帶，以及與單身家庭相關的其他一些事情等等，而我認為經濟衰退肯定會讓公寓行業的每個人都感到擔憂，我認為我有信心，正如我們歷來在經濟低迷時期所做的那樣，我們可能會堅持得更好。

That's all very helpful. And then just for my follow-up, for projects that are in lease-up today, have you kind of -- have you seen any slowdown in the pace of lease-up or absorption for those? And where are concessions today for, yes, assets in lease-up?

這一切都非常有幫助。然後只是為了我的後續行動，對於今天正在租賃的項目，你有沒有——你有沒有看到租賃或吸收這些項目的速度有所放緩？是的，今天租賃資產的優惠在哪裡？

Austin, this is Brad. We really haven't seen any impact, negative impact associated with supply pressures on our new lease-ups. And generally, that's where you'd think we would see it first. We've got 6 or so projects that are in lease-up right now. Concessions on those, we typically model about a month free. I'd say on 3 of those, we're using some concession, maybe up to 0.5 month free. We're not using the full concessions that we underwrote, and we're not seeing the need to just generally based on what we're seeing in the market. And I'd say our traffic continues to be really good on all of our lease-ups. The leases we're signing, the velocity is really, really good. So we're not seeing any early indications yet that, that new supply is having an impact there.

奧斯汀，這是布拉德。我們真的沒有看到任何影響，與供應壓力對我們的新租賃相關的負面影響。通常，這就是您認為我們會首先看到它的地方。我們現在有 6 個左右的項目處於租賃狀態。在這些優惠上，我們通常會免費提供大約一個月的模型。我會說其中 3 個，我們正在使用一些讓步，可能最多免費 0.5 個月。我們沒有使用我們所承保的全部優惠，我們也沒有看到需要一般地根據我們在市場上看到的情況。而且我會說我們的流量在我們所有的租賃中仍然非常好。我們正在簽署的租約，速度真的非常好。因此，我們還沒有看到任何早期跡象表明，新供應正在那裡產生影響。

And we'll take our next question from Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

我們將與高盛一起接受 Chandni Luthra 的下一個問題。

You guys talked about in your prepared remarks that cap rates are still going strong for good quality product. Could you remind us where they are tracking at the moment?

你們在準備好的評論中談到，優質產品的上限率仍然很高。你能提醒我們他們目前正在追踪哪裡嗎？

And then as you think about your own opportunity set down the line, as you think about distressed opportunities emanating from the current supply situation and lending markets, where would cap rates need to be for you to be comfortable buying and getting in the market?

然後當你考慮自己的機會時，當你考慮當前供應情況和貸款市場產生的不良機會時，上限利率需要達到什麼水平才能讓你放心地購買和進入市場？

Yes, this is Brad. I'll certainly jump on that. We continue to see cap rates, call it, in the 4.7, 4.75 range for assets that fit that description, well located, strong markets. Interestingly, in the first quarter, I mean we only had 7 data points. So again, it's -- the volume is down, call it, 70% year-over-year. So we don't have a whole lot of data points. But interestingly, the band of those 7 trades is pretty close together, so -- which we haven't seen that historically. I would say for us, cap rates definitely need to be over 5, 5.25, 5.5, something in that range. But I would say it's really going to depend on the asset, what the rent trajectory looks like. And we're also looking at the after CapEx, what it looks like in that nature as well. So that's pretty important to us.

是的，這是布拉德。我當然會接受。對於符合該描述、位置優越、市場強勁的資產，我們繼續看到資本化率在 4.7、4.75 範圍內。有趣的是，在第一季度，我的意思是我們只有 7 個數據點。所以，再次，它的數量下降了，可以說，同比下降了 70%。所以我們沒有很多數據點。但有趣的是，這 7 筆交易的波段非常接近，所以——我們在歷史上從未見過這種情況。我想對我們說，資本化率肯定需要超過 5、5.25、5.5，在這個範圍內。但我會說這真的取決於資產，租金軌跡是什麼樣的。我們也在關注資本支出之後的情況，它在本質上也是什麼樣子。所以這對我們來說非常重要。

And I would say where opportunities might come for us are going to be properties that are early in their lease-up. That's where some of these developers tend to get a little bit more stress in their underwriting and in their performance. As some of the supply in our markets begins to come online, some of these less experienced operators that are operating some of these new lease-ups could potentially struggle a bit to lease up those assets. And so I do think that's going to be an opportunity for us. And in fact, that's really what our acquisition forecast is built on, is buying assets that are in their initial stage of lease-up.

我想說的是，我們的機會可能會出現在租賃初期的房產上。這就是其中一些開發商在承保和績效方面往往會承受更多壓力的地方。隨著我們市場上的一些供應開始上線，一些經驗不足的經營者正在經營這些新的租賃業務，可能會在租賃這些資產方面遇到一些困難。所以我確實認為這對我們來說是一個機會。事實上，這正是我們收購預測的基礎，即購買處於租賃初期的資產。

That's very helpful. And for my follow-up, as we think about new supply from a geographic standpoint, what are the markets where you're seeing most pressure? And how are you thinking about balancing occupancy versus pricing in those markets?

這很有幫助。對於我的後續行動，當我們從地理角度考慮新供應時，您看到壓力最大的市場是什麼？您如何考慮平衡這些市場的入住率和定價？

Chandni, this is Tim. Right now, I'd Austin is probably the #1 market in terms of where we're seeing supply. And Phoenix, to an extent, we're seeing a little bit. Honestly, some of the higher supply markets we're seeing like Raleigh and Charlotte, Charleston are 3 of the markets where we're seeing a fair amount of supply, have also been some of our best pricing markets so far this year. So as Eric kind of laid out earlier, we're not seeing a lot of pressure yet from supply. We're still getting the job growth and demand. There's pockets here and there.

Chandni，這是蒂姆。現在，就我們看到的供應而言，奧斯汀可能是排名第一的市場。而鳳凰城，在某種程度上，我們看到了一點點。老實說，我們看到的一些供應量較高的市場，如羅利和夏洛特，查爾斯頓是我們看到大量供應的三個市場，也是今年迄今為止價格最好的市場之一。因此，正如埃里克早些時候所說的那樣，我們還沒有看到來自供應的很大壓力。我們仍在獲得就業增長和需求。到處都是口袋。

But right now, as we did in Q1, we're happy to keep pushing on price where we can. Our occupancy is at a stable point. And there's a lot of things we monitor as kind of leading-edge demand indicators, but still in a healthy balance right now.

但現在，就像我們在第一季度所做的那樣，我們很高興繼續盡可能地推高價格。我們的入住率處於穩定狀態。我們將很多東西作為前沿需求指標進行監控，但目前仍處於健康平衡狀態。

We will go next over to Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起去邁克爾戈德史密斯。

Earlier, you talked about the B product outperforming A product on a portfolio level. I was wondering if we can dive into a market or 2 to just kind of better understand some of the dynamics of what you're seeing in the A product versus the B product? And then also within that, can we talk about kind of like the larger markets that you're in versus the smaller markets? And if A versus B is performing differently in the large ones versus the smaller ones?

早些時候，您談到了 B 產品在投資組合層面上優於 A 產品。我想知道我們是否可以深入研究一個或兩個市場，以便更好地了解您在 A 產品和 B 產品中看到的一些動態？然後也在其中，我們可以談談你所處的較大市場與較小市場的比較嗎？如果 A 和 B 在大公司和小公司的表現不同？

Yes. It's fairly consistent, I would say. Atlanta is probably a good example where we have quite a bit of diversification there. We've got several assets kind of in town, Midtown, Buckhead and then a lot of assets outside the perimeter, and we're pretty consistently seeing the suburban assets perform better than those more urban assets. And that's playing out relatively consistent across some of the markets. We are seeing what you might call our secondary markets perform pretty well. I mentioned Charleston a moment ago. Savannah, Greenville, some of these more secondary markets are holding up very well and doing really well in terms of pricing. And that's part of the strategy. I mean typically, those markets aren't going to get quite as much of the supply as some of these larger markets, and that's playing out for us pretty well so far.

是的。我會說，這是相當一致的。亞特蘭大可能是一個很好的例子，我們在那裡有相當多的多元化。我們在城鎮、中城、巴克海特有幾種資產，然後在周邊有很多資產，而且我們一直看到郊區資產的表現優於那些城市資產。這在一些市場上表現得相對一致。我們看到您可能稱之為我們的二級市場的表現非常好。我剛才提到了查爾斯頓。薩凡納、格林維爾，其中一些二級市場表現良好，在定價方面表現非常好。這是戰略的一部分。我的意思是，通常情況下，這些市場不會像其中一些較大的市場那樣獲得那麼多的供應，到目前為止，這對我們來說效果很好。

And then my follow-up question just is on the -- we talked about the job market and how the portfolio may react to that. I guess my question is more related to just the in-migration to the Sunbelt. And what's that looking like versus pre-COVID levels? And are there any markets that you're seeing where it is stronger or weaker in-migrations?

然後我的後續問題就是 - 我們談到了就業市場以及投資組合如何對此做出反應。我想我的問題更多地與遷移到陽光地帶有關。與 COVID 之前的水平相比，情況如何？您是否看到任何市場在移民中變得更強或更弱？

Michael, this is Eric. I would tell you that the in-migration that we're -- we saw in the first quarter with about 11% of the leases that we are writing a function of people moving into the Sunbelt, that's pretty consistent with where we were prior to COVID. It began to move up a bit during 2020, late 2020 and throughout most of 2021, and then it started moderating a little bit in 2022. But right now, as we sit here today, roughly 11% or so of the move-ins that we are seeing are coming from people moving in from outside the Sunbelt. And that compares to 9% to 10% that we saw prior to COVID. Move-outs from the Sunbelt, the turnover we have where people are leaving us and moving out of the Sunbelt is still only about 3% to 4% of the move-outs that we're having are a function of people leaving the region. So on a net basis, we're pretty close to where we were prior to COVID and would expect that those trends will likely now continue at the current level going forward.

邁克爾，這是埃里克。我會告訴你，我們正在遷移——我們在第一季度看到，我們正在編寫的租約中約有 11% 是人們遷入陽光地帶的功能，這與我們之前的情況非常一致冠狀病毒。它在 2020 年、2020 年底和 2021 年的大部分時間裡開始略有上升，然後在 2022 年開始有所緩和。但是現在，就在我們今天坐在這裡的時候，大約有 11% 左右的遷入我們看到的是來自陽光地帶以外的人。相比之下，我們在 COVID 之前看到的是 9% 到 10%。從 Sunbelt 搬出，我們在人們離開我們和搬出 Sunbelt 的營業額仍然只有大約 3% 到 4% 的搬出是人們離開該地區的功能。因此，在淨基礎上，我們非常接近 COVID 之前的水平，並預計這些趨勢現在可能會繼續保持當前水平。

And when you say going forward, does that mean for the rest of '23? Or is that kind of for the intermediate term?

當你說前進時，這是否意味著 23 年剩下的時間？或者那種是中期的？

I would say the rest of '23 into '24. I think that, again, harking back to my earlier comments relating to the potential for moderation in the employment markets, we've seen these trends through these cycles that we've been through over the years, where migration trends are more positive, if you will, in the Sunbelt region. And it's been that way for many, many years through recessions and through expansions in the economy. That continues to be the case. And so I just continue to think that these markets and the portfolio strategy we have will serve us well long term. And I think the net positive migration trends that we see today will likely persist for the foreseeable future.

我會說 23 年剩下的時間到 24 年。我認為，再次回顧我之前關於就業市場放緩潛力的評論，我們已經通過這些年來經歷的這些週期看到了這些趨勢，其中移民趨勢更加積極，如果你會的，在陽光帶地區。多年來，在經濟衰退和經濟擴張期間，情況一直如此。情況仍然如此。因此，我只是繼續認為，這些市場和我們擁有的投資組合策略將為我們長期服務。而且我認為我們今天看到的淨積極移民趨勢可能會在可預見的未來持續存在。

We'll take our next question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

我們將從豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico 那裡回答下一個問題。

I was hoping to get a little bit of a feel for how the new lease growth on signings is differing by market. Just sort of an order of magnitude between better versus weaker markets, if you can give a little color on that.

我希望對簽約的新租賃增長如何因市場而異有所了解。如果你能給出一點顏色的話，那麼更好的市場和更弱的市場之間只是一個數量級。

Yes. Nick, it's Tim. So if we think about where April is, it's anywhere from, call it, negative 1%, negative 2% for some of the lower markets up to 3%, 4%, 5% on some markets. And it moved positive in April. As we talked about, we're at 0.2%, and we saw a good acceleration from March to April. We kind of expect to see that typical seasonality and a little more acceleration as we move through the spring and summer, but that gives you a little bit of an order of magnitude.

是的。尼克，是蒂姆。因此，如果我們考慮 4 月的位置，它可能是從負 1%、負 2% 到一些較低市場的負 2%，在某些市場上高達 3%、4%、5%。它在四月份取得了積極進展。正如我們所談到的，我們處於 0.2%，並且我們看到了從 3 月到 4 月的良好加速。我們有點希望看到典型的季節性和我們在春季和夏季移動時的加速，但這給了你一個數量級。

That's helpful. Do you mind also just maybe saying which markets are the better versus weaker in that range?

這很有幫助。您是否介意也可能只是說在該範圍內哪個市場更好，哪個市場更弱？

Yes. I mean as I mentioned before, Austin is one of the weaker ones. Austin and Phoenix are 2 that I would point out as a little bit on the weaker side. Orlando continues to be one of our strongest markets. And then I mentioned a moment ago as well, we're seeing some of our more secondary markets perform really well. Also Charleston, Savannah, Richmond, Greenville, all holding up really well also.

是的。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，奧斯汀是較弱的國家之一。 Austin 和 Phoenix 是 2，我會指出它們在較弱的一面。奧蘭多仍然是我們最強大的市場之一。然後我剛才也提到過，我們看到我們的一些二級市場表現非常好。還有查爾斯頓、薩凡納、里士滿、格林維爾，它們的表現也都非常好。

That's helpful. Just last question is on Atlanta. If you look, the occupancy there is a bit lower than the rest of the portfolio. Can you just talk about what's going on there? And I guess, also on Packing, I think you were saying that that's a market where suburban is doing better than urban. And so I'm not sure if it's -- if there's any sort of supply impact there that you're dealing with on occupancy or what's driving that.

這很有幫助。最後一個問題是關於亞特蘭大的。如果你看，那裡的入住率比投資組合的其他部分低一點。你能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？而且我想，同樣關於 Packing，我想你是在說這是一個郊區比城市做得更好的市場。因此，我不確定它是否 - 您正在處理的入住率或驅動因素是否存在任何供應影響。

Sure. Yes, Atlanta is a little bit of a unique situation. So back in February, we had some winter storms. It affected Texas and Georgia also, but we particularly saw some impact in Atlanta and Georgia. We had about 70 units in Atlanta that were down, that we took out of service through the storm and then brought them back up kind of in late February. So you had a pretty good chunky units in Atlanta that we had to get leased up. So that was really the occupancy story there. We've seen it -- it kind of bottomed out in March, but we have seen April occupancy pick up. So I think Atlanta will continue to improve and be a pretty solid market for us later in the year.

當然。是的，亞特蘭大的情況有點特殊。所以回到二月，我們遇到了一些冬季風暴。它也影響了得克薩斯州和佐治亞州，但我們在亞特蘭大和佐治亞州看到了一些影響。我們在亞特蘭大有大約 70 台設備出現故障，我們在風暴中停止使用，然後在 2 月下旬將它們恢復正常。所以你在亞特蘭大有一個非常好的矮胖的單位，我們不得不租出去。所以這真的是那裡的入住故事。我們已經看到了——它在 3 月份觸底，但我們已經看到 4 月份的入住率有所回升。所以我認為亞特蘭大將在今年晚些時候繼續改善並成為我們非常穩固的市場。

We will go next to Alan Peterson with Green Street.

我們將與 Green Street 一起去 Alan Peterson 旁邊。

Tim, I was just hoping you can shed some light on your planning for peak leasing. And if you're anticipating in some of your weaker markets, whether or not you're going to have to use concessions to maintain occupancy, call out the Austins or the Phoenixes of the world.

蒂姆，我只是希望你能說明一下你的高峰期租賃計劃。而且，如果您預計在一些較弱的市場中，無論您是否必須使用讓步來維持入住率，請召喚世界上的奧斯汀或鳳凰。

Yes. I mean there will be pockets. We're not -- we certainly haven't seen -- don't expect to see it at any sort of portfolio-wide level. If we look at Q1, total concessions were about 25 basis points as a percent of rent. We are seeing a little more in Austin, call it, half a month up to a month, and then there's areas where if there's lease-up properties, you may see a little bit more markets like Orlando, we're seeing no concessions, but we'll see it a little bit, but I don't think any more than half to a month more than what we're kind of seeing right now. I don't really see it getting much different than what we see today.

是的。我的意思是會有口袋。我們不是 - 我們當然沒有看到 - 不要期望在任何類型的投資組合範圍內看到它。如果我們看一下第一季度，總優惠佔租金的百分比約為 25 個基點。我們在奧斯汀看到更多，可以稱之為半個月到一個月，然後在某些地區，如果有租賃物業，您可能會看到更多像奧蘭多這樣的市場，我們沒有看到任何讓步，但我們會看到一點點，但我認為不會比我們現在看到的多半到一個月。我真的不認為它與我們今天看到的有什麼不同。

Understood. And that's on your assets or other competing assets nearby?

明白了。那是在您的資產或附近的其他競爭資產上嗎？

More so on competing assets. I mean we have some. As I mentioned, there's -- it's pretty minimal. And it kind of depends on the market. There are some markets where upfront concessions are more of staying in that market, whereas others, it's more of a net pricing scenario where you don't really see upfront concessions. So it kind of depends, but similar, whether it's our properties or the market in general.

競爭資產更是如此。我的意思是我們有一些。正如我提到的，有——它非常小。這在某種程度上取決於市場。在某些市場中，前期讓步更多的是留在該市場，而其他市場則更多是淨定價場景，您不會真正看到前期讓步。所以這有點取決於，但相似的是，無論是我們的財產還是整個市場。

Appreciate that. And Brad, just one follow-up on your prepared remarks about debt and equity capital starting to dry up. The cost of buckets of capital out there, where are some of your private peers the most concerned about when sourcing new financing today? What are some of the -- whether it be the banks or life insurance companies, what buckets of capital right now are the ones that are seeing the most impact there?

感謝。布拉德，只是對你準備好的關於債務和股權資本開始枯竭的評論的後續行動。那裡的大量資金成本，您的一些私人同行在今天尋找新融資時最關心的是什麼？其中一些 - 無論是銀行還是人壽保險公司，目前哪些資本桶在那裡看到的影響最大？

Yes. I mean most of our partners use bank financing for their developments. And so I'd say that's the biggest concern at this point. And given the last few weeks and just the restriction there in capital with banks, it's more acute than it has been. First quarter, it was difficult. Equity was difficult. Debt was difficult. And I'd say the debt piece has gotten even more difficult for them. But generally, they're going to regional banks for their banking needs. And they generally have strong relationships with these banks so they can get a deal or 2 done with the banks, but it's a lot more difficult. It takes a lot longer than what it has in the past. And so that's really restricting. One of the other areas that it's restricting, new deals getting done, and I don't see that changing for the foreseeable future.

是的。我的意思是我們的大多數合作夥伴都使用銀行融資來進行開發。所以我想說這是目前最大的擔憂。考慮到過去幾週以及銀行資本的限制，它比以前更加嚴重。第一季度，很難。公平是困難的。債務很困難。而且我會說債務部分對他們來說變得更加困難。但一般來說，他們會去區域銀行滿足他們的銀行業務需求。他們通常與這些銀行有牢固的關係，因此他們可以與銀行達成一兩筆交易，但這要困難得多。它需要比過去更長的時間。所以這真的很限制。它限制的其他領域之一是新交易的完成，我認為在可預見的未來這種情況不會改變。

We'll go next to Rob Stevenson with Janney.

我們將與 Janney 一起去 Rob Stevenson 旁邊。

Eric or Brad, you guys added a Orlando land parcel this quarter. But overall, how aggressively are you going to be in adding additional land parcels for development at this point? And are you seeing any relief in terms of the costs of land? Some of the peers have spoken about more office sites and vacant movie theaters and as such being sold for apartment development, allowing for better deals. Curious as to what you're seeing in terms of that.

埃里克或布拉德，你們本季度增加了一塊奧蘭多地塊。但總的來說，此時您將如何積極地增加額外的地塊進行開發？您是否看到土地成本有所緩解？一些同行談到了更多的辦公用地和空置電影院，因此被出售用於公寓開發，從而獲得更好的交易。好奇你在這方面看到了什麼。

Yes, Rob, this is Brad. As I mentioned, we have 12 sites now that we either own or control. So we feel like we're in a good spot in terms of building out our pipeline going forward. And as Al mentioned, we think we're on pace for that $1 billion, $1.2 billion or so in terms of projects going, and we like where we're located. The asset that we purchased in Orlando is a Phase 2 to a project that we'll start this year. So there was a strategic reason for that. It's really a covered land play. There's some leased buildings on it right now.

是的，羅伯，這是布拉德。正如我所提到的，我們現在擁有或控制著 12 個站點。因此，我們覺得我們在構建未來管道方面處於有利地位。正如 Al 提到的那樣，我們認為我們正在朝著 10 億美元、12 億美元左右的項目邁進，我們喜歡我們所處的位置。我們在奧蘭多購買的資產是我們將於今年開始的項目的第二階段。所以這是有戰略原因的。這真是一場有蓋的土地遊戲。現在上面有一些出租的建築物。

So I'd say going forward, we'll be a bit more cautious on land. I would say we'll continue to look for sites that have been dropped by other developers. We'll look to get time. A couple of the sites we have now, as I mentioned, are we control them, we do not own them. So that's our preference, to have time on the deals. And I'd say we're on the early stages or it appears that we're in the early stages of land repricing a bit in some areas. We've seen a 10% price reduction on some of the projects that some of the -- our partners are coming to us with sites for. They've been able to negotiate some additional time and some cost reduction. So I think we're on the early stages of that at this point.

所以我想說，展望未來，我們在陸地上會更加謹慎。我會說我們會繼續尋找已被其他開發者放棄的網站。我們會爭取時間。正如我所提到的，我們現在擁有的一些網站是我們控制的，而不是我們擁有的。所以這是我們的偏好，有時間進行交易。而且我會說我們處於早期階段，或者看起來我們在某些地區處於土地重新定價的早期階段。我們已經看到一些項目的價格降低了 10%，我們的合作夥伴中的一些項目正帶著網站來找我們。他們已經能夠協商一些額外的時間和一些成本降低。所以我認為我們現在還處於早期階段。

Okay, that's helpful. And then Tim or Al, where is bad debt or delinquency today? And how does that compare to the historical periods pre-COVID in recent comparable periods?

好的，這很有幫助。然後蒂姆或艾爾，今天的壞賬或拖欠在哪裡？在最近的可比時期中，這與 COVID 之前的歷史時期相比如何？

Yes, Rob, this is Tim. So if we look at Q1, for example, all the rents that we billed in Q1, we collected 99.4% of that, so 60 basis points of bad debt, which is consistent, right in line with where we were last year. If you factor in prior month collections and any collection agency, it goes down about 50 basis points. So really remains pretty minimal.

是的，羅伯，這是蒂姆。因此，如果我們看一下第一季度，例如，我們在第一季度收取的所有租金，我們收取了其中的 99.4%，即 60 個基點的壞賬，這與我們去年的水平一致。如果您將前一個月的收款和任何收款機構考慮在內，它會下降約 50 個基點。所以真的很小。

And is there any markets in particular that you're seeing any material higher amounts in?

是否有任何市場特別是您看到任何實質性更高的金額？

Atlanta is probably the one I would point out where it's just still kind of the court system and everything going on there, it's taken a little longer to move through the process. So it's our highest one right now, probably closer to around 1% or so. But that's really the only market where we're seeing that.

亞特蘭大可能是我要指出的地方，它仍然是一種法院系統，那裡發生的一切，它需要更長的時間來完成這個過程。所以這是我們目前最高的，可能接近 1% 左右。但這確實是我們看到的唯一市場。

And we will go next to Omotayo Okusanya with Credit Suisse.

我們將與瑞士信貸一起去 Omotayo Okusanya。

Hoping you can help me understand the increase in guidance a little bit better. Again, you kind of talked about in 1Q, you had some OpEx kind of tailwinds that could potentially become headwinds going forward. So you're not changing same-store NOI. But so trying to really understand, what was that slide (inaudible), number one? And then number two, it sounds like based on spring leasing fees and you see the [FFO] guidance with them.

希望你能幫助我更好地理解指導的增加。同樣，你在第一季度談到過，你有一些 OpEx 的順風，可能會成為未來的逆風。因此，您不會更改同店 NOI。但是，所以試圖真正理解，第一張幻燈片（聽不清）是什麼？然後第二，這聽起來像是基於春季租賃費，你會看到他們的 [FFO] 指南。

Yes, Tayo, that's a good question. As we talked about a little bit, we -- the first quarter, obviously, we outperformed $0.06 according to our midpoint. And about half of that was timing, as I mentioned. It's really some expenses, some favorability we had in the first quarter. The bulk of that was real estate taxes that we still think our full year guidance number is correct, so we'll fill that over the year. So the first $0.03 increase in core FFO was the other items coming through. I would say, 1/3 of that or $0.01 was really operating forms. As Tim mentioned, we were favorable, particularly in pricing. It was, for the first quarter, what we expect. I think we -- if you remember our guidance or our discussion in same guidance was that our pricing expectation for the full year was 3% and the quarter, first quarter, is 3.9%. So that's a little bit of favorability.

是的，Tayo，這是個好問題。正如我們所說的那樣，我們——第一季度，顯然，根據我們的中點，我們的表現超過了 0.06 美元。正如我提到的，其中大約一半是時機。這真的是一些費用，我們在第一季度獲得的一些好感。其中大部分是房地產稅，我們仍然認為我們的全年指導數字是正確的，所以我們將在一年內填補。因此，核心 FFO 的第一個 0.03 美元增加是其他項目通過的。我會說，其中 1/3 或 0.01 美元是真正的運營形式。正如蒂姆提到的，我們很受歡迎，尤其是在定價方面。對於第一季度，這是我們的預期。我認為我們——如果你還記得我們的指引或我們在同一指引中的討論，我們對全年的定價預期為 3%，而第一季度的定價預期為 3.9%。所以算是有點好感了。

But given that we have the bulk of the leasing season ahead of us, a lot of work to be done, we just felt like our ranges in our guidance are still where they need to be there. And the other part of the favorability of FFO that flowed through were things below NOI, overhead, interest and those things. So really, the same store was good that we were -- I would call it favorable -- slightly favorable to on point of what we expected. And we'll wait to see what happens over the next couple of quarters.

但鑑於我們還有大部分的租賃季節，還有很多工作要做，我們只是覺得我們指導中的範圍仍然在他們需要的地方。 FFO 的另一部分好處是低於 NOI、管理費用、利息和那些東西。所以真的，同一家商店和我們一樣好 - 我稱之為有利 - 稍微有利於我們的預期。我們將拭目以待，看看接下來幾個季度會發生什麼。

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And then can you just talk a bit about kind of new lease spreads for the quarter? Again, that was kind of -- it was negative. Just kind of see as the thoughts there, whether it really is a supply issue, whether there's a bit more of a demand issue and how we should kind of think about that kind of especially going into like your core spring leasing season?

明白了好的。這很有幫助。然後你能談談本季度的新租賃利差嗎？同樣，這有點——它是消極的。只是看看那裡的想法，它是否真的是一個供應問題，是否還有更多的需求問題，以及我們應該如何考慮那種特別是像你的核心春季租賃季節一樣的問題？

Yes. Tayo, this is Tim. I mean I think one thing to keep in mind, the new lease rates that we saw in Q1 are really pretty typical if we go back through history. If you look outside of last year, the kind of the lease rates we were seeing were pretty much in line or better, frankly, than most of the years we've been tracking it. So it was pretty much as expected. I mean March new lease rates dropped a little bit, and it was really more function of similar to what I was talking about with Atlanta earlier where we saw leasing activity drop for a couple of weeks there in February with some of the stores, particularly in Texas and Georgia, that impacted occupancy a little bit in February. And then we were able to regain that occupancy in March, but it did come at the expense a little bit of some of the new lease pricing, but as we talked about with April, where we saw new lease spreads accelerate and move positive. So from where we sit right now, all the demand metrics look strong, exposures where we want it, leads, traffic volume, all that is where we would expect. So I think we'll move into the rest of the spring and the summer, a strong leasing season and see some acceleration and see what we would typically expect out of a pretty strong supply-demand dynamic.

是的。 Tayo，這是蒂姆。我的意思是我認為有一件事要記住，如果我們回顧歷史，我們在第一季度看到的新租賃率確實非常典型。如果你看看去年以外的情況，坦率地說，我們看到的那種租賃率與我們一直在追踪的大部分年份相比幾乎一致或更好。所以這和預期的差不多。我的意思是 3 月份的新租賃率略有下降，這實際上更像是我之前在亞特蘭大談到的情況，我們看到 2 月份那裡的一些商店的租賃活動下降了幾週，特別是在得克薩斯州和佐治亞州，這對 2 月份的入住率產生了一些影響。然後我們能夠在 3 月份重新獲得入住率，但這確實是以犧牲一些新的租賃定價為代價的，但正如我們在 4 月份談到的那樣，我們看到新的租賃價差加速並向正方向移動。因此，從我們現在所處的位置來看，所有需求指標看起來都很強勁，我們想要的曝光率、潛在客戶、流量，所有這些都是我們所期望的。因此，我認為我們將進入春季和夏季的剩餘時間，一個強勁的租賃季節，並看到一些加速，並看到我們通常對相當強勁的供需動態的預期。

And we will go next to Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們將與 Mizuho 一起前往 Haendel St. Juste。

This is Barry Luo on for Haendel St. Juste. My first question was on property taxes. I was just wondering how that was trending versus expectations since [Cato's] release in the back half.

我是 Barry Luo 代表 Haendel St. Juste。我的第一個問題是關於財產稅。我只是想知道自從 [Cato] 在後半部分發布以來，它的趨勢與預期有何不同。

Yes, this is Al. I can give you some color on that. So right now, we expect that our estimates that we put out in our guidance for property taxes, we left that the same. We think we still have a good range that we've got. We did have some favorability in the first quarter on property taxes, as I just mentioned a minute ago, but really that's related to the timing of some of the activity. We had some -- the appeals from prior year, they come in and the timing can be different year-to-year. We had some wins that we achieved in the first quarter on some of our prior year [pills] that were good. We got them a little earlier than we thought. We still have a lot of fights both for prior year to go and a lot of the information for this year to come in. So on balance, we have about 6.25% growth that we expected for this year. We still -- at the midpoint of our guidance, we still think that is right.

是的，這是阿爾。我可以給你一些顏色。所以現在，我們希望我們在財產稅指南中做出的估計保持不變。我們認為我們仍然有一個很好的範圍。正如我剛才提到的，我們在第一季度確實對財產稅有一些優惠，但這實際上與某些活動的時間安排有關。我們有一些 - 前一年的上訴，他們進來了，時間每年都不同。我們在第一季度取得了一些勝利，我們在前一年的一些[藥丸]上取得了不錯的成績。我們得到它們的時間比我們想像的要早一點。我們仍然為上一年的過去和今年的大量信息進行了很多鬥爭。所以總的來說，我們今年的增長率約為 6.25%。我們仍然 - 在我們指導的中點，我們仍然認為這是正確的。

I would tell you that we still, in terms of current year, don't have a lot of information yet. We feel like we have a good view on value, but a lot of the information, the stubs from the municipalities come out probably mostly in the second quarter. So as we're talking next quarter, I should have 60% to 70% knowledge on that. And then the millage rates will come more in the third and even some in the fourth quarter. So we feel like our range is good. I would say that we've continued -- the pressures coming from Texas, Florida and Georgia, that's continuing to be the case as it has been for several years. I would say that as we move forward into 2024, as they're looking backwards toward this more normalized year, hopefully, we begin to see some moderation in that line.

我會告訴你，就今年而言，我們仍然沒有很多信息。我們覺得我們對價值有很好的看法，但很多信息，來自市政當局的存根可能主要在第二季度出現。因此，在我們下個季度討論時，我應該對此有 60% 到 70% 的了解。然後，第三季度的加成率會更高，第四季度甚至會增加一些。所以我們覺得我們的範圍很好。我會說我們一直在繼續——來自德克薩斯、佛羅里達和佐治亞的壓力，這種情況一直持續了好幾年。我想說的是，隨著我們進入 2024 年，當他們回顧這個更加正常化的一年時，希望我們開始看到這方面有所緩和。

Got it. Okay. And just we get Texas in particular, so noticing a significant expense decline sequentially, so 11% for Fort Worth and I think 6% for Austin. Is some of that being driven by property tax relief? Or what's kind of driving that?

知道了。好的。尤其是得克薩斯州，因此註意到費用連續大幅下降，沃思堡下降 11%，我認為奧斯汀下降 6%。其中一些是由財產稅減免推動的嗎？或者是什麼在驅動它？

I think there's some property tax in that for sure, but I mean Tim can answer as well. But I think overall, we expected the first quarter expenses for all categories together in the company has held to be pretty high in the first quarter. Really for many of the groupings, because of the comparisons for last year as we saw inflation kind of come into our business more in the second, third and fourth quarter last year, we expected our property -- our operating expenses to be high. Actually, they were 8.3% so where we came out was favorable to our expectations, what we had said, as Tim mentioned. So what we would expect to see is some key items, personnel, repair and maintenance begin to moderate as we move back into the second, third and fourth quarter of the year, with really the outstanding points of continued pressure being taxes, insurance areas primarily. Does that answer the question?

我認為肯定會有一些財產稅，但我的意思是蒂姆也可以回答。但我認為總的來說，我們預計第一季度公司所有類別的總支出在第一季度都相當高。真的對於許多分組來說，由於去年的比較，因為我們看到通貨膨脹在去年第二、第三和第四季度更多地進入我們的業務，我們預計我們的財產——我們的運營費用會很高。實際上，他們是 8.3%，所以我們得出的結果符合我們的預期，正如蒂姆所說的那樣。因此，隨著我們回到今年第二、第三和第四季度，我們預計會看到一些關鍵項目、人員、維修和維護開始放緩，真正持續壓力的突出點主要是稅收、保險領域.這能回答問題嗎？

So -- well, I was more looking at like the sequential decline from 4Q in Fort Worth versus 1Q in Fort Worth (inaudible).

所以 - 好吧，我更關注沃思堡第四季度與沃思堡第一季度的連續下降（聽不清）。

Yes. I think the sequential decline, all those Texas markets, I think, was pretty much real estate tax relief. Just the timing of accruals and settlements and all that, it can be pretty volatile from quarter-to-quarter but normalizes over the course of the year.

是的。我認為連續下降，所有那些德州市場，我認為，幾乎是房地產稅減免。只是應計費用和結算的時間等等，每個季度的波動可能很大，但在一年中會正常化。

Yes. And that's where you're seeing some of those items, particularly in Texas, where we had the real estate tax prior appeals coming in, that's some of that occurring.

是的。這就是你看到其中一些項目的地方，特別是在得克薩斯州，我們在上訴之前就已經徵收了房地產稅，這就是其中的一部分。

And we will go next to Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們將和派珀·桑德勒一起去亞歷山大·戈德法布旁邊。

So 2 questions. First, just going back to the supply just because it's a big topic that always comes up with the Sunbelt. You guys articulated a lot of how your portfolio is doing. Would you say it's more just your rent versus new supply? Or would you say it's more just proximity, meaning that your properties are less of -- end up less likely to be near where the new supply is? Meaning that the new supply is in other parts of the market, and therefore, like where you cited some supply-heavy markets where you guys actually did well, it's because just proximity, in general, your portfolio doesn't line up where a lot of the new product is being built. I'm just trying to understand.

所以2個問題。首先，回到供應只是因為這是一個總是與 Sunbelt 一起出現的大話題。你們闡述了很多關於您的投資組合的表現。你會說這更只是你的租金與新供應嗎？或者你會說它更只是接近，這意味著你的房產不太可能 - 最終不太可能靠近新供應的地方？這意味著新的供應在市場的其他部分，因此，就像你引用一些你們實際上做得很好的供應密集市場的地方，這是因為一般來說，只是接近，你的投資組合併沒有排列很多的新產品正在建設中。我只是想了解。

Alex, this is Eric. I would say it's both of the points that you're making that are at play here. Where we do see supply coming into a market, more often than not, it is in some of the more urban-oriented submarkets. And when you look at our portfolio and the footprint we have and the diversification we have across a number of these markets, particularly the big cities like Atlanta and Dallas, we have generally more exposure to the suburban markets versus the urban markets. So I think there is a supply proximity point that I would point to that you're mentioning that probably works in our favor to some degree. It's hard to -- and it will vary, of course, by market.

亞歷克斯，這是埃里克。我想說的是你提出的兩個觀點都在這裡發揮作用。我們確實看到供應進入市場的地方，通常是在一些更面向城市的子市場。當您查看我們的投資組合和我們擁有的足跡以及我們在許多這些市場中的多元化時，特別是像亞特蘭大和達拉斯這樣的大城市，我們通常更多地接觸郊區市場而不是城市市場。所以我認為有一個供應接近點，我會指出你提到的可能在某種程度上對我們有利。這很難——當然，它會因市場而異。

And then the other thing that you pointed to, which I think is also at play here, is the price point that, broadly, we have our portfolio. When you look at the average effective rent per unit of our portfolio and compare it to the average rent of the new product coming into the markets, we still are somewhere in the 25% plus or minus range below where new product is pricing. And again, it will vary a bit by market, but that certainly provides some level of protection against the supply pressure and offers the rental market a great value play in renting from us versus something that may be down the street that's newer, but considerably more expensive.

然後你指出的另一件事，我認為也在這裡發揮作用，是我們擁有我們的投資組合的價格點。當您查看我們投資組合的每單位平均有效租金並將其與進入市場的新產品的平均租金進行比較時，我們仍然處於低於新產品定價 25% 的正負範圍內。再一次，它會因市場而異，但這肯定會在一定程度上抵禦供應壓力，並為租賃市場提供巨大的價值，從我們那裡租來的東西與街上可能更新的東西相比，但要多得多昂貴的。

And with some of the renovation work that we're doing, frankly, that's what creates the opportunity for us to do some of this renovation work and effectively offer the resident in the market what it feels like a brand-new apartment on the interior, but still at a meaningful discount to what they would have to pay in rent for something brand new. So there are a multitude of factors that play and it varies by market. But certainly, we cannot absolutely eliminate new supply pressure, but there, after being in this region for 30 years, we've learned how to do some things to help at least mitigate the pressure a little bit here and there.

坦率地說，通過我們正在進行的一些翻新工作，這為我們創造了一些翻新工作的機會，並有效地為市場上的居民提供了內部全新公寓的感覺，但與他們為全新的東西支付的租金相比，仍然有很大的折扣。因此，有多種因素在起作用，並且因市場而異。但當然，我們不能完全消除新的供應壓力，但在那裡，在這個地區 30 年之後，我們已經學會瞭如何做一些事情來幫助至少減輕一些壓力。

Okay. Second question is on insurance, certainly a hot topic, especially in Florida and Texas with big premium jumps. Are you guys seeing opportunities where some of your smaller players or maybe some of the merchant recent new developments may have -- they may not have underwritten 50% type premium increases, and therefore, that could gin up some buying opportunities? Do you think that you would see that potentially, people having to sell because of insurance pressure?

好的。第二個問題是關於保險的，這當然是一個熱門話題，尤其是在保費大幅上漲的佛羅里達州和德克薩斯州。你們是否看到了你們的一些小玩家或一些商家最近的新發展可能有的機會——他們可能沒有承保 50% 的保費增長，因此，這可能會帶來一些購買機會？你認為你會看到人們因為保險壓力而不得不出售嗎？

This is Brad. I definitely think that, that is something to keep an eye on. I do think the market down there right now is extremely tough. And depending on where you are in Tampa or South Florida, those insurance premiums are increasing substantially for new product. So I would say for newly developed properties in those areas, Tampa, Orlando, not as much, but Jacksonville, it's something for us to keep an eye on because I do think that the insurance premiums are going to be a lot higher than the developer underwrote, than they expected. And I do think there's going to be some impact to the sales proceeds as a part of that. And so I think as you get some of the supply pressures coupled with that and some of the leasing pressures, those are areas that we'll keep an eye on.

這是布拉德。我絕對認為，這是值得關注的事情。我確實認為現在那裡的市場非常艱難。根據您在坦帕或南佛羅里達州的位置，新產品的保險費會大幅增加。所以我想說，對於這些地區的新開發物業，坦帕、奧蘭多，沒有那麼多，但傑克遜維爾，這是我們需要關注的事情，因為我確實認為保險費會比開發商高很多承保，超出他們的預期。而且我確實認為這會對銷售收益產生一些影響。因此，我認為當您遇到一些供應壓力以及一些租賃壓力時，我們將密切關注這些領域。

And then obviously, we have the benefit with our broader portfolio and insurance pricing that, that definitely is a platform benefit for us.

然後很明顯，我們從更廣泛的投資組合和保險定價中受益，這對我們來說絕對是一個平台優勢。

We will go next to Wes Golladay with Baird.

我們將和 Baird 一起去 Wes Golladay 旁邊。

Just had a quick question on capital allocation. I know your stock's yielding low 6 to maybe mid-6 implied cap. So how do you view a potential buyback versus starting new developments at this part of the cycle?

剛剛有一個關於資本配置的快速問題。我知道您的股票收益率低至 6 至 6 中等隱含上限。那麼，您如何看待潛在的回購與在周期的這一部分開始新的開發？

Well, Wes, this is Eric. I would tell you, right now, we believe that what really is important to have is a lot of strength in capacity on the balance sheet. Obviously, we're in a very turbulent environment at the moment. Capital markets are very turbulent. There's still obviously some level of risk in the broader economy. And so we really believe that the thing to do right now is to protect capacity and keep the balance sheet in a strong position, not only for defensive reasons.

好吧，韋斯，這是埃里克。我會告訴你，現在，我們認為真正重要的是資產負債表上的強大能力。顯然，我們目前處於一個非常動蕩的環境中。資本市場非常動盪。更廣泛的經濟顯然仍存在一定程度的風險。因此，我們真的相信，現在要做的是保護產能並保持資產負債表處於強勢地位，而不僅僅是出於防禦原因。

But as Brad has alluded to, we do think as we get later in the year that we may see some improving opportunities on the acquisition front. We have 4 -- as Brad alluded to, we have 4 projects that we may start. We're scheduled to start later this year. These are projects that would deliver in 2026 into 2027. So I think that, that level of development is something that we feel very comfortable with. These would be -- of course, it's -- we're still fine-tuning a lot of the numbers and pricing is not yet locked in. But we are seeing some early indication of some relief on some of the pricing metrics. And of course, by the time we get to '26 and '27, we think the leasing environment is likely to be pretty strong, given the supply pullback that we expect to start to see happening late in '24 and '25. So we would anticipate that these will be some very attractive investments that we could potentially start later this year and would reconcile very nicely to even where our current cost of capital is.

但正如布拉德所暗示的那樣，我們確實認為，隨著今年晚些時候的到來，我們可能會在收購方面看到一些改善的機會。我們有 4 個——正如 Brad 提到的，我們有 4 個可以啟動的項目。我們計劃在今年晚些時候開始。這些項目將在 2026 年到 2027 年交付。所以我認為，這種發展水平讓我們感到非常滿意。這些將是 - 當然，它是 - 我們仍在微調很多數字並且定價尚未鎖定。但我們看到一些早期跡象表明某些定價指標有所緩解。當然，到 26 年和 27 年時，我們認為租賃環境可能會非常強勁，因為我們預計供應回落將在 24 年和 25 年末開始發生。因此，我們預計這些將是一些非常有吸引力的投資，我們可能會在今年晚些時候開始，並且會很好地協調我們目前的資本成本。

So we certainly understand the metrics and the math on all this and pay close attention to it. We don't think we're going to ramp up a lot more than that at this point in the cycle, but we feel pretty good about the 4 opportunities that we're looking at, at the moment.

所以我們當然了解所有這些的指標和數學並密切關注它。我們認為我們不會在周期的這一點上增加太多，但我們對目前正在尋找的 4 個機會感到非常滿意。

Okay. And then maybe if we can go to that topic of distress. I mean a lot of the private owners right now, do you feel that they may be upside down and the banks are just extending the opportunity right now? Or do they have significant equity, just need maybe a capital infusion?

好的。然後也許我們可以談談那個痛苦的話題。我的意思是現在很多私人業主，你覺得他們可能倒掛了，銀行現在只是在擴大機會嗎？或者他們是否擁有大量股權，可能只需要注資？

Yes. I mean I don't think that we are seeing any distress in the market right now. I mean the projects, just like our portfolio, the operating fundamentals are very strong. So even on some of these lease-ups, when they underwrote them in 2021 or so, the leasing fundamentals are going to be a lot stronger than what they expected. And even the joint venture projects that we started in 2021, cap rates were in the 5%, 5.5% range on the valuation. I mean that's kind of where we are. So I would say that the developers have been somewhat disciplined in their underwriting in the last couple of years and the operating fundamentals are outperforming. So they won't get the pricing that they could have gotten 1.5 years ago, but there's still profit in a lot of these projects, so we're not seeing that yet.

是的。我的意思是，我不認為我們現在在市場上看到任何困境。我的意思是這些項目，就像我們的投資組合一樣，運營基礎非常強大。因此，即使在其中一些租賃中，當他們在 2021 年左右承保時，租賃基本面也將比他們預期的要強得多。即使是我們在 2021 年啟動的合資項目，估值的資本化率也在 5%、5.5% 的範圍內。我的意思是我們就是這樣。所以我要說的是，開發商在過去幾年的承銷方面有些自律，運營基本面表現優於大市。所以他們不會得到 1.5 年前他們本可以得到的定價，但很多這些項目仍然有利潤，所以我們還沒有看到。

Where I think the distress could come are projects that closed a year, 1.5 years ago, and they did some type of financing cap or something that's coming due, and it's going to require a reset of -- or a pay down in order to get that loan rightsized and the debt service coverage rightsized. Those are going to be the ones, I think, that are going to have a little bit of trouble.

我認為可能會遇到困難的是一年前關閉的項目，1.5 年前，他們做了某種類型的融資上限或即將到期的事情，這將需要重新設置 - 或支付首付才能獲得該貸款權利化和償債範圍權利化。我認為，這些人會遇到一些麻煩。

And we will go next to Eric Wolfe with Citi.

我們將與花旗一起去 Eric Wolfe 旁邊。

Just to follow up to your answer there a moment ago. You mentioned your balance sheet is just in incredible shape. I don't think I've -- can remember seeing an apartment company at sort of mid-3x leverage down to probably low 3x later this year.

只是為了跟進您剛才的回答。你提到你的資產負債表處於令人難以置信的狀態。我不認為我 - 記得今年晚些時候看到一家公寓公司的槓桿率從 3 倍左右降至 3 倍左右。

So my question is really sort of what would it take, what type of opportunity would you need to see before you'd be willing to take your leverage back up to a more normal sort of 5x amount? And I guess if a portfolio came across that was like in, say, the 5.5% to 6% range, would that be interesting enough to allow you to take your leverage back up?

所以我的問題實際上是，在您願意將槓桿率恢復到更正常的 5 倍數量之前，您需要看到什麼類型的機會？而且我想如果一個投資組合出現在 5.5% 到 6% 的範圍內，這是否足夠有趣，可以讓您恢復槓桿作用？

Well, Eric, this is -- I'll start, and Al, you can jump in. But we do anticipate that over the course of the next year or 2, that we will see leverage probably edge back up just a little bit, believing that we will -- if nothing else, we've got some development funding that we'll do. And of course, the funding that we're doing on our redevelopment work and repositioning work is super -- very, very accretive. And so we will begin to see leverage move a little bit back up. But having said that, we just think right now, given the uncertainty in the broader capital markets landscape and what we imagine to be likely an opportunity for more distressed asset buying, that capacity right now is a good thing to have. And so we're going to hold on to that. And I do think that, obviously, if we did see some larger opportunity come across that we felt made sense for us strategically and felt like we could do something closer to 5.5% to 6% range from a cap rate perspective, that probably would certainly get our attention. And obviously, it depends on a lot of different other variables.

好吧，埃里克，這是——我會開始，阿爾，你可以加入。但我們確實預計在未來一兩年內，我們會看到槓桿率可能會略微回升一點，相信我們會——如果沒有別的，我們有一些我們會做的開發資金。當然，我們在重建工作和重新定位工作上所做的資金是超級的——非常、非常增值。因此，我們將開始看到槓桿率有所回升。但話雖如此，我們現在只是認為，鑑於更廣泛的資本市場格局的不確定性以及我們認為可能有機會購買更多不良資產，現在擁有這種能力是一件好事。所以我們會堅持下去。而且我確實認為，很明顯，如果我們確實看到一些更大的機會，我們覺得在戰略上對我們來說是有意義的，並且覺得我們可以從資本化率的角度來看接近 5.5% 到 6% 的範圍，那可能肯定會引起我們的注意。顯然，它取決於許多不同的其他變量。

But we like where the balance sheet is right now given the broader landscape that we have with the capital markets and the transaction market. And so we're going to be very cautious in how we put that capacity to work. We've got some known needs that I've just mentioned that are very attractive investments and we'll continue to move forward with those. We don't have any, certainly, need to go attract additional capital right now. And as Al alluded to, the debt portfolio is in terrific position, a lot of duration, and it's all 100% fixed. So we're going to sit tight with what we have at the moment, largely.

但我們喜歡資產負債表現在的位置，因為我們在資本市場和交易市場擁有更廣闊的前景。因此，我們在如何發揮這種能力方面將非常謹慎。我們有一些我剛剛提到的已知需求，這些需求是非常有吸引力的投資，我們將繼續推進這些需求。當然，我們現在不需要吸引額外的資金。正如 Al 所暗示的那樣，債務組合處於極好的位置，持續時間很長，而且都是 100% 固定的。因此，我們將在很大程度上堅持目前所擁有的。

I'll just add just quickly that, Eric, that's a very good point you make that really our target -- long-term target is closer to 4.5x to 5x on the EBITDA coverage. I mean we're providing opportunity right now, as Eric mentioned, and hopefully they will find those, expect to be able to find those. And long term, our target is in line with what you mentioned.

埃里克，我只是快速補充一下，這是一個很好的觀點，你確實是我們的目標——長期目標是接近 4.5 倍到 5 倍的 EBITDA 覆蓋率。我的意思是，正如埃里克所說，我們現在正在提供機會，希望他們能找到這些機會，希望能夠找到這些機會。從長遠來看，我們的目標與您提到的一致。

And then just on a related guidance question. You did 3.9% in terms of blended spread first quarter. It sounds like you expect to accelerate through the balance of the peak leasing season. So my question is really just how did it get down to that 3% blend that's in your guidance? Is it just a steep dropoff later this year or just some conservative baked in there?

然後是一個相關的指導問題。就第一季度的混合利差而言，你們做了 3.9%。聽起來您希望通過租賃旺季的平衡來加速。所以我的問題真的只是它是如何下降到你指導中的 3% 混合的？這只是今年晚些時候的急劇下降，還是只是一些保守的做法？

I'm going to start with it and Tim can give some more details. What I would say primarily is, one, we need to see the bulk of leasing season happen as it comes. So we're providing opportunity to see that and get more information. We're encouraged certainly by what we saw in the first quarter.

我將從它開始，蒂姆可以提供更多細節。我主要想說的是，第一，我們需要看到大部分租賃季節到來。因此，我們提供了查看和獲取更多信息的機會。我們對第一季度的情況感到鼓舞。

And I think secondly, the biggest point would be we do expect to see that seasonality in the most acute, if you would, in the fourth quarter. That's typically what it is in a normal year. That's sort of what we're expecting. So we could see that new lease pricing be a little more negative in that fourth quarter because the holiday season and demand just really shuts down in that period. So that's what we provided for in our forecast, I think, at this point.

我認為其次，最重要的一點是我們確實希望在第四季度看到最嚴重的季節性。這通常是正常年份的情況。這就是我們所期待的。因此，我們可以看到第四季度的新租賃價格略有負數，因為假期和需求在那段時間真的停滯了。所以這就是我們在預測中提供的，我認為，在這一點上。

Yes, Eric, this is Tim. I mean I think it will kind of boil down to new lease pricing that we see over the late spring and summer will be the ball game in terms of whether it ends up a little better than we thought or a little worse. You have, obviously, the bulk of the leases happening during that period. And they carry for several months throughout the year. So they have certainly an outsized impact. So if those new lease rates accelerate more, then it probably is a little better than we thought. If they accelerate not quite as much, probably a little less because renewals are going to be relatively consistent through the rest of the year.

是的，埃里克，這是蒂姆。我的意思是，我認為這會歸結為我們在春末和夏季看到的新租賃定價，這將是最終比我們想像的好一點還是更糟的球賽。很明顯，大部分租約都是在那段時間發生的。他們全年攜帶幾個月。因此，它們肯定會產生巨大的影響。因此，如果這些新的租賃利率加速更多，那麼它可能比我們想像的要好一點。如果他們的速度沒有那麼快，可能會少一些，因為在今年餘下的時間裡，續訂將相對穩定。

We will go next to Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們將與 Jamie Feldman 和 Wells Fargo 一起去。

I want to go back to your comments about 11% of leases written in the first quarter were new people moving into Sunbelt. Can you provide more color on that data point across the different markets? And I guess I'm thinking more about maybe some of the larger MSAs versus the smaller MSAs.

我想回到你的評論，第一季度簽訂的租約中有 11% 是新人搬進 Sunbelt。您能否在不同市場的該數據點上提供更多顏色？而且我想我更多地考慮的可能是一些較大的 MSA 與較小的 MSA。

Yes, this is Tim. So 11% overall and probably markets you would expect. In terms of in-migration, Phoenix is our top market. You have about 18% of move-ins out of the market going into Phoenix. Tampa was another big one at 15%. Charlotte was 13%. Charleston and Savannah were pretty high in there as well. And so those are the biggest drivers. And that's been pretty consistent throughout the last several quarters as the ones that are benefiting the most.

是的，這是蒂姆。所以總體上是 11%，可能是你所期望的市場。在移民方面，鳳凰城是我們的首要市場。大約有 18% 的遷出市場進入鳳凰城。坦帕是另一個大城市，佔 15%。夏洛特是 13%。查爾斯頓和薩凡納在那裡的排名也很高。因此，這些是最大的驅動因素。在過去的幾個季度中，這一直是受益最多的季度。

Interesting. And then, I guess, similarly, if you think about the lay-up activity, I guess those are also the markets where you've seen the most growth in tech jobs or jobs that might be most at risk. Can you talk at all about how lay-up activity might be impacting the different types of MSAs and even (inaudible) specifically? Just trying to kind of think through the next 12 months or so.

有趣的。然後，我想，同樣地，如果你考慮裁員活動，我想這些也是你看到技術工作增長最快或風險最大的工作的市場。您能否談談擱置活動如何影響不同類型的 MSA，甚至（聽不清）具體影響？只是想想想接下來的 12 個月左右。

Yes. I mean, we haven't seen a ton of impact yet. I mean I think certainly the technology sector is getting a lot of publicity and a lot of -- there's layoffs out there, but I do think a lot of the other sectors are still in the net hiring position. Austin's one, particularly in North Austin, where we've seen a little bit of impact from that, some of the tech jobs up in North Austin, but at the same time, you've got Tesla still planning to expand over the next couple of years there. You've got Oracle moving their headquarters there. So certainly long term in Austin, it's a job machine, and we feel really good about that.

是的。我的意思是，我們還沒有看到很大的影響。我的意思是，我認為科技行業肯定得到了很多宣傳和大量裁員，但我確實認為很多其他行業仍處於淨招聘狀態。奧斯汀的一個，特別是在北奧斯汀，我們已經看到了一些影響，一些科技工作在北奧斯汀，但與此同時，特斯拉仍計劃在接下來的幾個時間裡擴張在那裡多年。你讓 Oracle 將他們的總部搬到那裡。所以從長遠來看，奧斯汀肯定是一個工作機器，我們對此感覺非常好。

Outside of that, we haven't seen a lot. Phoenix, been tight a little bit. But again, we've got properties there, with it's a huge semiconductor plant coming in right there in one of our properties. So there's a little bit of short-term pressure over the next few quarters, but long term feel really good about all of those markets.

除此之外，我們還沒有看到太多。鳳凰，有點緊張。但同樣，我們在那裡有房產，它是一個巨大的半導體工廠，就在我們的一處房產中。因此，未來幾個季度會有一些短期壓力，但從長遠來看，所有這些市場都感覺非常好。

Okay. And then I know you talked about insurance and taxes on the expense side. Just as we think about your guidance for the year, any other variables or line items on the expense side that maybe you don't feel quite as confident -- or maybe there could be some changes there? I know you got your insurance coming up in July, your renewal.

好的。然後我知道你談到了費用方面的保險和稅收。就像我們考慮您今年的指導一樣，費用方面的任何其他變量或項目可能您感覺不太自信——或者那裡可能會有一些變化？我知道你的保險在 7 月到期，續保。

Those are the 2 big items. I mean I think that expense -- the key components of expenses for the year are personnel, repair and maintenance, taxes and insurance. I think we -- the first 2, we expect to moderate as the year progresses as we talked about, and taxes and insurance remaining the biggest items that have the most unknown at this point. So that's ones we're keeping our eye on at this point.

這些是 2 個大項目。我的意思是，我認為費用——全年費用的主要組成部分是人員、維修和保養、稅收和保險。我認為我們 - 前兩個，我們預計隨著我們談到的這一年的進展而緩和，稅收和保險仍然是目前最未知的最大項目。因此，這就是我們目前正在關注的問題。

And we will take our next question from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Linda Tsai 的下一個問題。

Maybe just as a short follow-up to that last question. In terms of rationale for move-out job transfers and buying a new home, has the balance of these reasons shifted since 4Q and any regional trends you'd highlight?

也許只是對最後一個問題的簡短跟進。就搬出工作轉移和購買新房的理由而言，自第四季度以來這些原因的平衡是否發生了變化以及您要強調的任何區域趨勢？

I mean it's pretty consistent. One, we've seen move-outs to buy a house has dropped dramatically. As you would expect with what interest rates have done, we've seen our move-outs due to rent increase drop quite a bit as well. The biggest reason for move-outs, which is always consistently our largest [read to put in our guide], is just a change in the job and job transfers and that's up a little bit. But it's -- as we've talked to people out on site, it's more just people moving for another job as opposed to any significant job losses. So turnover -- it's overall is down a little bit, but it's the -- some of the key reasons that we've talked about before and pretty, pretty consistent across markets, no matter if larger markets or secondary markets.

我的意思是它非常一致。第一，我們已經看到遷出買房的人數急劇下降。正如您對利率的預期一樣，我們已經看到由於租金上漲而搬出的人數也下降了很多。搬遷的最大原因，這一直是我們最大的原因 [閱讀以放入我們的指南]，只是工作和工作調動的變化，而且有點上升。但它是——正如我們在現場與人們交談過的那樣，更多的只是人們為了另一份工作而搬家，而不是任何重大的失業。所以營業額——總體上有所下降，但這是——我們之前討論過的一些關鍵原因，而且無論是更大的市場還是二級市場，整個市場都非常一致。

And we have no further questions. I will return the call to MAA for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我會將電話返回給 MAA 以獲取結束語。

Well, no additional comments to add. So we appreciate everyone joining us, and I look forward to seeing everyone at NAREIT. Thank you.

好吧，沒有要添加的其他評論。所以我們感謝大家加入我們，我期待在 NAREIT 見到大家。謝謝。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。