Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Afterwards, the company will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, February 22, 2022.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 MAA 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）之後，公司將進行問答環節。提醒一下，本次電話會議將於今天（2022 年 2 月 22 日）進行錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉交給 MAA 高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer 發表評論。請繼續。

Thank you, Nikki, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team also participating on the call with me this morning are Eric Bolton, Tim Argo, Al Campbell, Rob DelPriore, Joe Fracchia, and Brad Hill. Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.

謝謝你，尼基，大家早上好。我是 Andrew Schaeffer，MAA 的財務主管兼資本市場總監。管理團隊的成員今天早上也參加了與我的電話會議，包括埃里克博爾頓、蒂姆阿爾戈、阿爾坎貝爾、羅布德爾普里奧、喬弗拉基亞和布拉德希爾。在我們今天早上開始發表我們準備好的評論之前，我想指出，作為這次討論的一部分，公司管理層將發表前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們的預測存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您參考昨天的收益發布中的前瞻性陳述部分和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的第 34 條法案文件，其中描述了可能影響未來結果的風險因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the difference between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.

在這次電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。在我們的收益發布和補充財務數據中可以找到最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的介紹以及非 GAAP 和可比的 GAAP 指標之間差異的調節。我們的收益發布和補充目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的投資者頁面上獲取。今天晚些時候，我們的網站上也將提供我們準備好的評論副本和此次電話會議的錄音。在準備好一些簡短的評論後，管理團隊將可以回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Eric.

我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. MAA wrapped up calendar year of 2022 with fourth quarter results for core FFO that were ahead of expectations as higher fee income along with continued growth in average rent per unit and strong occupancy more than offset pressure from higher real estate taxes. Looking ahead to the coming year, there's clearly some uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the employment markets, the pace of inflation and the broader economy.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。 MAA 以核心 FFO 的第四季度業績結束了 2022 日曆年，其核心 FFO 的第四季度業績超出了預期，因為較高的費用收入以及每單位平均租金的持續增長和強勁的入住率足以抵消較高房地產稅帶來的壓力。展望來年，就業市場前景、通脹速度和整體經濟顯然存在一些不確定性。

In addition, while we do know that new supply deliveries in 2023 broadly will be higher than in 2022. We continue to believe that MAA is well positioned for the coming year as the leasing market returns to more normalized conditions. Our expectations for the coming year are built on a lease-over-lease pricing environment of 3%. This performance assumption, coupled with the earn-in from 2022's rent growth should drive growth in effective rent per unit of around 7% over the coming year. We will, of course, see conditions vary some by market and submarket location, but we believe that our portfolio is in a uniquely solid position to whether expected moderation from the historically high rate growth of last year. This view is really supported by 3 key variables: first, we continue to believe that our Sun Belt footprint maintains an advantageous position for capturing demand, given the stronger and more stable employment markets in the Sun Belt states. We continue to see job growth, positive migration trends, affordable rent-to-income ratios and low resident turnover.

此外，雖然我們確實知道 2023 年的新供應交付量總體上將高於 2022 年。我們仍然相信，隨著租賃市場恢復到更加正常的狀態，MAA 在來年處於有利地位。我們對來年的預期是建立在 3% 的租賃價格環境之上的。這一業績假設，加上 2022 年租金增長帶來的收益，應該會推動來年每單位有效租金增長 7% 左右。當然，我們會看到情況因市場和子市場位置而有所不同，但我們相信，我們的投資組合處於獨特的穩固地位，以判斷去年的歷史高增長率是否會有所放緩。這一觀點得到了 3 個關鍵變量的真正支持：首先，鑑於陽光帶各州的就業市場更強勁、更穩定，我們仍然認為我們的陽光帶足跡在捕捉需求方面保持著有利地位。我們繼續看到就業增長、積極的移民趨勢、負擔得起的租金收入比和低居民流動率。

Secondly, MAA's unique diversification across the Sun Belt region, including both large and high-growth secondary markets, provides exposure to a good range of employment sectors and works to helps often some of the pressures surrounding new supply levels in a number of our larger markets.

其次，MAA 在陽光帶地區的獨特多元化，包括大型和高增長的二級市場，提供了廣泛的就業部門的機會，並有助於緩解我們許多較大市場中新供應水平帶來的壓力.

And thirdly, with a rent price point average for our portfolio that appeals to our broad segment of the rental market, and it is around 20% below the price point of the mostly high-end new product being delivered, we believe we will capture more stability and top line performance as leasing conditions normalize in 2023.

第三，我們投資組合的平均租金價格點吸引了我們廣泛的租賃市場細分市場，而且比交付的大多數高端新產品的價格點低約 20%，我們相信我們將獲得更多隨著租賃條件在 2023 年正常化，穩定性和收入表現。

In the event that we do find ourselves later in the year headed towards a more severe contraction in the economy or a recession, as MAA has consistently demonstrated over the past 20 years, we expect to perform with a lower level of volatility than what generally is seen with more concentrated portfolios and/or those costs traded in large coastal markets. The transaction market remains very quiet, and we are likewise remaining patient with what opportunities we do see. I expect it will be the second half of the year before pricing data becomes more readily available. We do have plans to initiate development on 4 new projects in 2023 associated with sites that we already own or that are under our control. These projects will, of course, not actually start delivering units for another couple of years.

如果我們確實在今年晚些時候發現自己正走向更嚴重的經濟收縮或衰退，正如 MAA 在過去 20 年中一貫證明的那樣，我們預計其表現的波動水平將低於通常水平見於更集中的投資組合和/或在大型沿海市場交易的那些成本。交易市場仍然非常平靜，我們同樣對我們看到的機會保持耐心。我預計定價數據將在今年下半年變得更容易獲得。我們確實計劃在 2023 年啟動 4 個新項目的開發，這些項目與我們已經擁有或在我們控制下的場地相關。當然，這些項目在接下來的幾年內不會真正開始交付單位。

In conclusion, I want to give a big thank you to our MAA associates for their tremendous service and record performance in 2022. We have the company well positioned for the next cycle, as a number of new tech initiatives will positively impact performance over the coming years. Our external growth pipeline continues to expand and the balance sheet provides a good, strong foundation for supporting our current portfolio operations as well as active pursuit of new growth opportunities.

總之，我要非常感謝我們的 MAA 同事，感謝他們在 2022 年提供的出色服務和創紀錄的業績。我們為公司做好了迎接下一個週期的準備，因為許多新技術舉措將對未來的業績產生積極影響年。我們的外部增長渠道繼續擴大，資產負債表為支持我們當前的投資組合運營以及積極尋求新的增長機會提供了良好、堅實的基礎。

That's all I have in the way of prepared comments, and I'll turn the call over to Tim.

這就是我準備好的評論的全部內容，我會把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Same Store performance for the quarter was once again strong and ahead of our expectations. While pricing performance moderated during the fourth quarter from the record growth we had achieved September year-to-date, blended lease-over-lease pricing was up 5.7%. As a result, effective rent growth or the growth on all in-place leases for the fourth quarter was 14.9%, versus the prior year and 2.0% sequentially from the prior quarter.

謝謝你，埃里克，大家早上好。本季度的同店業績再次強勁，超出了我們的預期。儘管第四季度的定價表現較今年 9 月以來的創紀錄增長有所緩和，但混合租賃價格上漲了 5.7%。因此，第四季度有效租金增長或所有就地租賃的增長為 14.9%，與去年同期相比，比上一季度環比增長 2.0%。

Full year 2022 blended lease-over-lease pricing was 13.9%, helping to drive full year effective rent growth of 14.6%. Alongside the strong pricing performance, average daily occupancy remained steady at 95.6% for the fourth quarter and 95.7% for the full year of 2022. In line with normal seasonality, our January new lease rate of negative 0.3% improved from December's new lease rate of negative 0.9%, and other than 2022 represents a higher new lease rate than any year since we have been tracking the data.

2022 年全年混合租賃定價為 13.9%，有助於推動全年有效租金增長 14.6%。除了強勁的定價表現外，第四季度的平均每日入住率穩定在 95.6%，2022 年全年為 95.7%。與正常的季節性一致，我們 1 月份的新租賃率為負 0.3%，高於 12 月份的新租賃率負 0.9%，除 2022 年外，新租賃率高於我們跟踪數據以來的任何一年。

Combined with renewal pricing of 8.6%, January blended lease-over-lease pricing was 4.2% and average daily occupancy was 95.7%. With new lease pricing moderating as expected, renewal pricing, which lagged new lease pricing for much of 2022, is providing a catalyst for the strong January pricing and is expected to be strong for the next few months before moderating to a more typical range. We are achieving growth rates on signed renewals of around 8% to 9% for the first quarter. We do expect new supply in several of our markets remain elevated in 2023, putting some pressure on rent growth, but the various demand indicators remain strong, and we expect our portfolio to continue to benefit from population, household and job growth.

結合 8.6% 的續租定價，1 月份的混合租賃價格為 4.2%，平均每日入住率為 95.7%。隨著新租賃定價如預期般放緩，續約定價在 2022 年大部分時間都落後於新租賃定價，為 1 月份的強勁定價提供了催化劑，預計在接下來的幾個月內將保持強勁，然後放緩至更典型的範圍。我們在第一季度實現了約 8% 至 9% 的簽約續約增長率。我們確實預計 2023 年我們幾個市場的新增供應量仍將保持高位，給租金增長帶來一定壓力，但各種需求指標依然強勁，我們預計我們的投資組合將繼續受益於人口、家庭和就業增長。

As Eric mentioned, should we see a more dramatic downturn in the economy from here, we expect our market's diversification and price point will help mitigate some of the impact to performance. During the quarter, we continued our various product upgrade initiatives. This includes our interior unit redevelopment program, our installation of Smart Home technology and our broader amenity-based property repositioning program. For the full year 2022, we completed more than 6,500 interior unit upgrades and installed over 24,000 Smart Home packages.

正如埃里克所提到的，如果我們從這裡看到經濟出現更劇烈的下滑，我們預計我們市場的多元化和價格點將有助於減輕對業績的一些影響。本季度，我們繼續開展各種產品升級計劃。這包括我們的內部單元重建計劃、我們安裝的智能家居技術以及我們更廣泛的基於便利設施的物業重新定位計劃。在 2022 年全年，我們完成了 6,500 多個室內單元升級並安裝了 24,000 多個智能家居套件。

As of December 31, 2022, the total number of Smart units is over 71,000, and we expect to finish out the remainder of the portfolio in 2023. For our repositioning program, leases have been fully or partially repriced that the first 11 properties in the program and the results have exceeded our expectations with yields on costs averaging approximately 17%. We have another 4 projects that will begin repricing this quarter and 5 additional projects currently under construction.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，智能單元總數超過 71,000，我們預計將在 2023 年完成剩餘的投資組合。對於我們的重新定位計劃，租賃已經全部或部分重新定價，前 11 個物業計劃和結果超出了我們的預期，平均成本收益率約為 17%。我們還有另外 4 個項目將在本季度開始重新定價，另外 5 個項目目前正在建設中。

Those are all of my prepared comments. I'll now turn the call over to Brad.

這些都是我準備好的評論。我現在將電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning. Despite execution challenges in the transaction market, our team successfully completed our disposition plan for 2022 by closing our last 2 dispositions in the fourth quarter. Our total disposition proceeds for the year were approximately $325 million, representing a stabilized NOI yield of 4.3% and an investment IRR of 17.7% for assets with an average age of 25 years old.

謝謝你，蒂姆，早上好。儘管交易市場存在執行挑戰，但我們的團隊在第四季度完成了最後兩次處置，成功完成了 2022 年的處置計劃。我們今年的總處置收益約為 3.25 億美元，代表穩定的 NOI 收益率為 4.3%，平均年齡為 25 年的資產的投資內部收益率為 17.7%。

In 2023, we will continue the discipline of steadily recycling capital out of older, higher CapEx properties, with the intent to redeploy the capital into newer, lower CapEx, higher rent growth properties to drive higher long-term earnings growth within our portfolio. While transaction volume continues to be muted, we believe it's likely that the transaction market will provide more opportunities towards the back half of the year. Currently, the number of marketed properties is down substantially from 2022, with the majority of sellers waiting until at least the spring leasing season before reevaluating their planned sale timing.

2023 年，我們將繼續穩步從較舊、資本支出較高的物業中回收資本，目的是將資本重新部署到更新、資本支出較低、租金增長較高的物業，以推動我們投資組合中更高的長期收益增長。雖然交易量繼續低迷，但我們認為交易市場可能會在今年下半年提供更多機會。目前，在售房產的數量較 2022 年大幅下降，大多數賣家至少要等到春季租賃旺季才會重新評估他們計劃的銷售時間。

In the face of this lower volume, we have seen some upward pressure on cap rates, with the degree of the movement varying based on property characteristics, embedded rent growth as well as market and submarket location. However, until closed transactions materially increased transparency around cap rates will be difficult. When marketed deal volume does increase, we expect buyer financial strength and speed of execution to be attractive key differentiators and our balance sheet strength and capacity will support our ability to transact despite a more difficult credit environment.

面對這種較低的交易量，我們看到資本化率存在一些上行壓力，變動程度因房地產特徵、內含租金增長以及市場和子市場位置而異。然而，在關閉交易之前，圍繞資本化率大幅提高透明度將是困難的。當市場交易量確實增加時，我們預計買方的財務實力和執行速度將成為有吸引力的關鍵差異化因素，我們的資產負債表實力和能力將支持我們的交易能力，儘管信貸環境更加困難。

On our new developments, our team has done a tremendous job working through the challenges of elevated construction costs and permitting delays, leading to steady growth in our development pipeline. During 2022, we started construction on 1,253 units at a cost of $468 million, a record level of starts for MAA. During the fourth quarter, we started construction on 2 projects that have been in predevelopment for some time. These 2 projects will begin delivering units in 2 years and should finish construction in 3 years, lining up well with what we believe is likely to be a strong leasing environment.

在我們的新開發項目中，我們的團隊在應對建設成本上升和允許延誤的挑戰方面做了大量工作，從而使我們的開發管道穩步增長。 2022 年，我們以 4.68 億美元的成本開工建設了 1,253 個單元，創下了 MAA 的開工記錄。在第四季度，我們開始建設 2 個已處於前期開發階段的項目。這 2 個項目將在 2 年內開始交付單位，並應在 3 年內完工，與我們認為可能成為強勁租賃環境的情況相吻合。

While the timing of planned construction starts can change as we work through the local approval and construction bidding processes, we expect to start 4 new developments during the back half of 2023. This includes 2 in-house developments, 1 located in Orlando and 1 in Denver; and 2 prepurchased joint venture developments, 1 located in Charlotte and the other a Phase 2 to our West Midtown development in Atlanta.

雖然隨著我們通過當地審批和施工招標流程，計劃開工的時間可能會發生變化，但我們預計將在 2023 年下半年啟動 4 個新開發項目。這包括 2 個內部開發項目，1 個位於奧蘭多，1 個位於丹佛；以及 2 個預購的合資開發項目，其中 1 個位於夏洛特，另一個位於亞特蘭大的 West Midtown 開發項目的第 2 期。

Our construction management team continues to do a tremendous job actively managing our projects and working with our contractors to keep the inflationary and supply chain pressures from causing a meaningful increase to our overall development costs over our schedules. Despite these headwinds, the team delivered 3 projects on time in 2022 and under budget by approximately $4.5 million. During the fourth quarter, construction wrapped up on MAA Windmill Hill, and we reached stabilization at MAA Robinson, MAA Westglenn and MAA Park Point with operating results well ahead of our pro forma expectations, delivering stabilized NOI yields on average of 6.6%.

我們的施工管理團隊繼續做大量工作，積極管理我們的項目並與我們的承包商合作，以防止通貨膨脹和供應鏈壓力導致我們的總體開發成本超出我們的時間表。儘管存在這些不利因素，該團隊還是在 2022 年按時交付了 3 個項目，並且低於預算約 450 萬美元。第四季度，MAA Windmill Hill 的建設工作結束，我們在 MAA Robinson、MAA Westglenn 和 MAA Park Point 實現了穩定，經營業績遠超我們的預估預期，平均 6.6% 的穩定 NOI 收益率。

Leasing demand at our new properties remains high, and the competition from other new supply has, to date, not had a significant impact on our lease-up performance with rents being achieved well ahead of pro formas.

我們新物業的租賃需求仍然很高，迄今為止，來自其他新供應的競爭並未對我們的租賃業績產生重大影響，租金遠高於備考。

That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Al.

這就是我準備好的評論的全部內容。因此，我將把電話轉給 Al。

Okay. Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Reported core FFO per share of $2.32 for the quarter was $0.05 above the midpoint of our guidance and contributed to core FFO for the full year of $8.50 per share, representing a 21% increase over the prior year.

好的。謝謝你，布拉德，大家早上好。本季度報告的每股核心 FFO 為 2.32 美元，比我們指引的中點高出 0.05 美元，並為全年的核心 FFO 貢獻了每股 8.50 美元，比上一年增長了 21%。

Same-store rental pricing and occupancy levels were in line with expectations for the quarter, while higher fee and reimbursement revenues combined with strong lease-up and commercial revenues make to produce about 2/3 of this earnings outperformance for the quarter. This favorability was partially offset by real estate tax expenses, as final millage rates came in higher than expected during the quarter for several markets, primarily in Texas.

同店租金定價和入住率符合本季度的預期，而較高的費用和報銷收入加上強勁的租賃和商業收入使得本季度約 2/3 的收益表現出色。這種優惠被房地產稅支出部分抵消，因為本季度幾個市場（主要是德克薩斯州）的最終千分率高於預期。

Our real estate tax estimates were based on strong valuations supported by the very strong revenue trends over the last year, offset by expected millage rate rollbacks as counties managed overall tax needs, and rollbacks occurred but were less than expected in Texas, particularly in Dallas and Austin. Our internal guidance for -- our initial guidance, excuse me, for '23, which we'll discuss more in a moment, anticipate some continued pressure in this area given its backward-looking nature.

我們的房地產稅估計是基於去年非常強勁的收入趨勢所支持的強勁估值，但由於各縣管理整體稅收需求而導致預期的最低稅率回落所抵消，並且回退發生但低於德克薩斯州的預期，特別是在達拉斯和奧斯汀。我們的內部指導 - 我們的初步指導，對不起，我們將在稍後詳細討論的 '23，鑑於其向後看的性質，預計該領域將面臨一些持續的壓力。

Our balance sheet remains very strong, as we ended the year with historically low leverage debt-to-EBITDAre of 3.71x with 95.5% of our debt fixed at an average interest rate of 3.4% and with $1.3 billion in available capacity to support growth and manage our debt maturities late in 2023.

我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，因為我們以 3.71 倍的歷史低杠桿債務與 EBITDAre 結束了這一年，我們 95.5% 的債務固定在 3.4% 的平均利率，並且有 13 億美元的可用能力來支持增長和管理我們在 2023 年底到期的債務。

Also at the end of January, we settled our outstanding forward equity contracts, providing an additional $204 million of capacity at an attractive cost of capital. We currently expect to fund our near-term acquisition, development and refinancing needs with short-term debt capacity, allowing the financing markets to continue to stabilize before locking in long-term financing. Finally, we did provide initial earnings guidance for 2023 with our release, which is detailed in the supplemental information package.

同樣在 1 月底，我們結算了未完成的遠期股權合同，以極具吸引力的資本成本提供了 2.04 億美元的額外產能。我們目前希望通過短期債務能力為我們的短期收購、開發和再融資需求提供資金，從而使融資市場在鎖定長期融資之前繼續穩定下來。最後，我們確實在發佈時提供了 2023 年的初步收益指導，補充信息包中對此進行了詳細說明。

Core FFO for the year is projected to be $8.88 to $9.28 per share or $9.08 at the midpoint, which represents a 6.8% increase over the prior year. The foundation for the projected 2023 performance at Same Store revenue growth produced by historically higher rental pricing earn-in of about 5.5% combined with the more normalized blended rental pricing performance of 3% for the year as well as a continued strong occupancy remaining between 95.6% and 96% for the year.

今年的核心 FFO 預計為每股 8.88 美元至 9.28 美元，或中點為 9.08 美元，比上一年增長 6.8%。預計 2023 年同店收入增長的基礎是歷史上較高的租金定價收益約 5.5%，加上更正常化的全年 3% 混合租金定價表現，以及持續強勁的入住率，保持在 95.6 之間% 和 96%。

Based on this, effective rent growth for the year is projected to be a solid 7% at the midpoint of our range, with total Same Store revenues expected to grow 6.25%, slightly diluted from the other revenue items, primarily reimbursement in fee income, which grew at a more modest pace.

基於此，今年的有效租金增長預計將在我們範圍的中點穩定增長 7%，同店總收入預計將增長 6.25%，從其他收入項目（主要是費用收入的報銷）中略有稀釋，以更溫和的速度增長。

Same Store operating expenses are projected to grow at 6.15% at the midpoint for the year, with real estate taxes and insurance producing the most significant growth pressure. Combined these 2 items alone are expected to grow just over 7% for 2023 with the remaining controllable operating items expected to grow around 5.5%. These expense pressures are offset by the continued strong revenue growth with NOI for the year projected to grow 6.3% at the midpoint.

今年中點，同店營業費用預計將增長 6.15%，其中房地產稅和保險產生的增長壓力最大。預計到 2023 年，僅這兩項的總和就將增長 7% 以上，其餘可控運營項目預計將增長 5.5% 左右。這些費用壓力被持續強勁的收入增長所抵消，今年的 NOI 預計將在中點增長 6.3%。

We're also expecting continued external growth, both through the acquisitions and development opportunities during the year with a combined $700 million full year planned investment. This growth will be partially funded by asset sales, providing around $300 million of expected proceeds. We expect to fund the remaining capital needs for the year from internal cash flow and short-term variable rate borrowings, as we anticipate the financing markets to continue stabilizing over the next year, eventually providing better opportunities to lock in long-term debt rates.

我們還預計通過年內的收購和發展機會以及 7 億美元的全年計劃投資持續實現外部增長。這一增長將部分由資產出售提供資金，提供約 3 億美元的預期收益。我們預計通過內部現金流和短期浮動利率借款為今年剩餘的資本需求提供資金，因為我們預計明年融資市場將繼續穩定，最終提供更好的機會來鎖定長期債務利率。

This does produce some slight pressure on current year FFO performance, given high short-term rates, but is expected to be rewarded with lower long-term financing costs when markets stabilize further. So that's all that we have in the way of prepared comments. So Nikki, we'll now turn the call back to you for any questions.

鑑於短期利率較高，這確實對當年的 FFO 業績造成了一些輕微壓力，但預計當市場進一步穩定時，長期融資成本將得到回報。這就是我們準備好的意見的全部內容。那麼 Nikki，如果有任何問題，我們現在會將電話轉回給您。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Nick Yulico 和 Scotiabank 提出我們的第一個問題。

So I just wanted to start with the guidance on Same Store revenue. So if you're at sort of right around 6% at the midpoint, I think you guys had an earn-in that was close to that number coming into the year. So you have occupancy being roughly flat in the guidance. So just trying to understand kind of what might be the offset as to -- and you are assuming some market rent growth as well. So just trying to understand kind of the buildup there and if there's anything we're missing as to why the revenue growth guidance wouldn't be a little bit higher based on the earnings you've cited?

所以我只想從同店收入指南開始。因此，如果你在中點大約 6% 左右，我認為你們今年的收入接近這個數字。所以你的入住率在指導中大致持平。因此，只是想了解什麼可能會抵消 - 而且您也假設市場租金有所增長。因此，只是想了解那裡的積累情況，如果有什麼我們遺漏的，為什麼根據你引用的收益，收入增長指導不會高一點？

Yes. Nick, I'll give you the components, this is Al. I'll give you the components of how we built it, and maybe Tim can give a little color, if he would like on some of the components. But really is built on the earn-in, you talked about based on where pricing was, when we think about earnings is pricing at the end the year if it were to carry-forward that same level, not up or down, what would it be built into our portfolio. That's about 5.5%, that's the way we think about it. And on top of that, you get about half of the current year expected blended pricing. And as we talked about, we're expecting about 3%. So you add those 2 numbers together, you get right at the 7% effective rent growth guidance that we put out.

是的。尼克，我會給你組件，這是艾爾。我會給你我們如何構建它的組件，如果 Tim 想要一些組件，也許他可以給你一些顏色。但實際上是建立在收益之上的，你談到了基於定價的地方，當我們考慮收益是在年底定價時，如果結轉相同的水平，而不是向上或向下，那會是什麼被納入我們的產品組合。這大約是 5.5%，這就是我們的想法。最重要的是，您可以獲得本年度預期混合定價的大約一半。正如我們所討論的，我們預計約為 3%。所以你把這兩個數字加在一起，你就得到了我們提出的 7% 的有效租金增長指導。

Now that is, as we mentioned in the comments, a little bit moderated from other income items. About 10% of our revenue stream is from reimbursements and fees, those things, and they're expected to grow more modestly than that. So that's what gets to 6.25%. But in terms of the earn-in and the components, that's really what it is.

現在，正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，其他收入項目有所緩和。我們大約 10% 的收入流來自報銷和費用，這些東西，預計它們的增長會比這更溫和。這就是達到 6.25% 的原因。但就賺取收入和組成部分而言，這確實是事實。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just second question is just to get a feel for what type of economic scenario is baked into guidance whether this is a softer landing with modest job losses, any commentary from you guys on the economic outlook would be helpful?

好的。這很有幫助。然後第二個問題只是想了解指導中包含了哪種類型的經濟情景，這是否是軟著陸和適度的失業，你們對經濟前景的任何評論都會有所幫助嗎？

Well, Nick, this is Eric. I mean broadly, as Al mentioned, I mean, we do expect that the overall rent growth for the market next year will be something around 3%, which I think is going to be fueled by what we expect to be a continued relatively stable employment backdrop to what we're seeing today. We're not seeing any real evidence -- significant evidence building in any of our markets at this point relating to employment weakness or people losing jobs, we're not having any kind of issues surrounding collections. Migration trends continue to be very positive.

嗯，尼克，這是埃里克。我的意思是廣義上，正如 Al 提到的，我的意思是，我們確實預計明年市場的整體租金增長將在 3% 左右，我認為這將受到我們預期持續相對穩定的就業的推動我們今天所看到的背景。我們沒有看到任何真實的證據——目前在我們的任何市場中都建立了與就業疲軟或人們失業有關的重要證據，我們在收款方面沒有任何問題。移民趨勢繼續非常積極。

And so as we think about the outlook for '23, I mean, we're -- it's definitely moderated from what it was 2022, but we're not seeing any concerns at the moment that a severe contraction or any sort of a worse -- a materially worse decline in the employment markets were to occur now. If that does happen is, as I alluded to in my comments, we've been through recessions in the past, and we think that if we find ourselves in a more severe economic contraction, where broadly the employment markets start to really pull back, we think that that's where the sort of defensive characteristics that we've built into our strategy really start to pay a dividend for us.

因此，當我們考慮 23 年的前景時，我的意思是，我們 - 它肯定比 2022 年有所緩和，但我們目前沒有看到任何嚴重收縮或任何更糟的擔憂——現在就業市場將出現實質性更嚴重的下滑。如果真的發生這種情況，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們過去經歷過衰退，我們認為，如果我們發現自己處於更嚴重的經濟收縮中，就業市場普遍開始真正回落，我們認為這就是我們在戰略中建立的那種防禦特徵真正開始為我們帶來紅利的地方。

And that's where our secondary markets come into play on lower price point of our product comes into play, and the broad diversification to employment sectors that we have across the large number of markets that we're in, all provide some level of cushion, if you will, if we find ourselves in a more severe downturn. So right now, we're not calling for that, but we think that it should happen, we would probably weather that pressure better than a lot of others.

這就是我們的二級市場在我們產品的低價位發揮作用的地方，我們在我們所處的大量市場中擁有的就業部門的廣泛多樣化，都提供了一定程度的緩衝，如果如果我們發現自己處於更嚴重的衰退中，你會的。所以現在，我們並不呼籲這樣做，但我們認為它應該發生，我們可能會比其他許多人更好地承受這種壓力。

We'll take our next question from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們將與 Piper Sandler 一起接受 Alexander Goldfarb 的下一個問題。

Just -- first question is on development and your appetite for using capital. You said that cap rates overall for stabilized products are still sort of in flux. The debt market is clearly better for apartments, but a CMBS, which you guys don't use or Fannie, Freddie, whatever, that's still -- well, I guess, more CMBS remains sort of closed. So as you guys think about the development, do you think more about starting on your own account or do you see the potential that you're better off buying from other people who may run into financial difficulty, where on a risk-adjusted, you're better off to pick from someone else rather than starting ground up from you guys?

只是——第一個問題是關於發展和你對使用資本的興趣。你說穩定產品的總體資本化率仍在不斷變化。債務市場顯然對公寓更好，但是 CMBS，你們不使用，或者 Fannie，Freddie，等等，那仍然 - 好吧，我想，更多的 CMBS 仍然處於關閉狀態。因此，當你們考慮開發時，您是否更多地考慮從自己的帳戶開始，或者您是否看到了從可能遇到財務困難的其他人那裡購買更好的潛力，在風險調整的情況下，您最好從別人那裡挑選而不是從你們那裡開始？

Yes, Alex, this is Brad. I'll start off with that. I'd say it's both. We're looking at both opportunities, both on our balance sheet and then working with partners as well. I mean what we haven't seen broadly yet are developers kind of spitting sites, spitting land sites. We've seen it a little bit, but it's been sites that we're not really interested in. We've not seen the well located sites that have gone under contract kind of being let go, we've not seen that yet. So we will keep our eye on that for sure because I think that's where the opportunity presents itself for our on-balance sheet developments where we can pick up some of those land sites that other people drop.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是布拉德。我會從那開始。我會說兩者兼而有之。我們正在尋找這兩個機會，既在我們的資產負債表上，也在與合作夥伴的合作中。我的意思是，我們還沒有廣泛看到的是開發商有點隨地吐痰，隨地吐痰的土地。我們已經看到了一點，但它是我們並不真正感興趣的網站。我們還沒有看到根據合同被放開的位置優越的網站，我們還沒有看到。因此，我們肯定會密切關注這一點，因為我認為這就是我們資產負債表內開發的機會所在，我們可以在其中獲得其他人放棄的一些土地。

I think what we are seeing short term is exactly what you mentioned is the difficulties in the debt market, kind of, showing up through some of our development partners, maybe they can't get the debt financing for some of their developments going or equity partners backing out on deals. We are seeing that short term. We've got a team of folks this week that are out at NMHC, and we've already got a number of e-mails of projects, JV development opportunities that are a follow-up from that, where they are shovel-ready, could start mid-year, so we'll begin evaluating those because I think those are the ones that are going to be impacted by the debt market and just how tight that is right now. But the long story is, we'll look for opportunities in both of those areas.

我認為我們短期內看到的正是你提到的債務市場的困難，有點，通過我們的一些發展夥伴表現出來，也許他們無法為他們的一些發展或股權獲得債務融資合作夥伴退出交易。我們看到的是短期。本週我們有一群人在 NMHC 外出，我們已經收到了一些項目的電子郵件，JV 開發機會是後續行動，他們已經準備好，可能會在年中開始，所以我們將開始評估這些，因為我認為這些將受到債務市場的影響，以及目前的緊縮程度。但長話短說，我們將在這兩個領域尋找機會。

Okay. And the second question is just going back to Nick's question on sort of state of the markets and the employment. One of the common refrains about the Sun Belt is, it always has a lot of supply, but the economic growth seems to be more than offset, and you spoke about that relative to your ability to manage higher taxes, higher insurance.

好的。第二個問題只是回到尼克關於市場和就業狀況的問題。關於太陽帶的一個常見說法是，它總是有很多供應，但經濟增長似乎被抵消了，你談到了與你管理更高稅收、更高保險的能力相關的問題。

As you look at this year, and based on what your property managers see among the resident base and employment stats within your markets, do you see any like substantial risk that employment or economic job growth in your markets will not be able to exceed the new supply coming on? Or as you sit here today, your -- as you guys sit around the round table, you're like, there are a few more markets that we're more concerned about now than we were back in, let's say, November, when you guys were assessing how 2023 would look?

就您今年而言，根據您的物業經理在您所在市場的居民基數和就業統計數據中看到的情況，您是否看到任何類似的重大風險，即您所在市場的就業或經濟就業增長將無法超過新的供應來了？或者當你們今天坐在這裡時，你們——當你們圍坐在圓桌旁時，你們會說，我們現在更關心的市場比我們回來時多了幾個，比方說，11 月，當你們在評估 2023 年會是什麼樣子？

Well, Alex, this is Eric. As we sit here today, we continue to feel good about the demand side of the equation for us. As I mentioned, we're not seeing any -- I mean, the lead volume and traffic that we're seeing is still strong. We're seeing -- not seeing any evidence of stress with our renters in terms of collections. We're not seeing any evidence of people coming in, talking about losing their job because of -- and needing to get out their lease. We're not seeing any roommating trends starting to pick up.

嗯，亞歷克斯，這是埃里克。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們繼續對方程式的需求方面感到滿意。正如我所提到的，我們沒有看到任何——我的意思是，我們看到的潛在客戶數量和流量仍然很強勁。我們看到 - 沒有看到我們的租戶在收款方面有壓力的任何證據。我們沒有看到任何證據表明有人進來談論失去工作是因為 - 並且需要解除他們的租約。我們沒有看到任何室友趨勢開始回升。

And -- so as we sit here -- and then also, you look at the migration trends, we still saw 12% of the leases that we did in the fourth quarter were for people moving into the Sun Belt from outside of Sun Belt. So we are still not seeing any worries build on the demand side of the equation at this point, moderating from what it was, but still quite strong.

而且 - 所以當我們坐在這裡 - 然後你看看移民趨勢，我們仍然看到我們在第四季度所做的租賃中有 12% 是針對從太陽帶以外進入太陽帶的人。因此，此時我們仍然沒有看到等式的需求方面有任何擔憂，雖然有所緩和，但仍然相當強勁。

We'll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們將接受 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt 的下一個問題。

I was just curious if you could share how -- I believe the 3% figure you provided on lease-over-leases, the blended lease rate growth assumption embedded in guidance. And I'm just wondering if you could break down that between sort of the first half assumption and back half, as you alluded to, kind of renewals maybe trending a little bit lower as the year progressed?

我只是想知道你是否可以分享如何 - 我相信你提供的 3% 的租賃數字，混合租賃率增長假設包含在指導中。而且我只是想知道你是否可以在上半年假設和後半部分之間打破這種假設，正如你提到的那樣，隨著時間的推移，續約的趨勢可能會略有下降？

Austin, this is Tim. Yes, you heard me mention in the comments that renewals right now are the catalyst for us and kind of carrying the strength, new lease pricing outpaced renewals for the bulk of 2022. So we knew we kind of had some runway on the renewal side that's carrying us through this early part of 2023. So the 8% to 9% I talked about on renewals, I think that probably carries through the first quarter, call it, and then starts to moderate a little bit as you get into probably June through the rest of the year, I would expect it to be a little more normal with sort of what you've typically seen from MAA, which is kind of in that 6% to 7% range.

奧斯汀，這是蒂姆。是的，你聽到我在評論中提到，現在的續約是我們的催化劑，並且在某種程度上具有實力，新租賃定價在 2022 年的大部分時間裡超過了續約。所以我們知道我們在續約方面有一些跑道帶著我們度過了 2023 年初。所以我談到的續約率是 8% 到 9%，我認為這可能會持續到第一季度，然後開始緩和一點，因為你可能會進入 6 月到今年剩下的時間裡，我預計它會更正常一些，就像你通常從 MAA 看到的那樣，在 6% 到 7% 的範圍內。

And then on the new lease side, we're sitting slightly negative right now. I think that will slowly accelerate through the spring and summer and go modestly positive and then trend back down towards the end of the year. So kind of higher renewals in the first half of the year, moderating a little bit, new lease rates growing slightly through the year and then moderating just with seasonality, as we typically would see in Q4, and then you kind of blend that all together and get to the forecast that we have for blended lease-over-lease.

然後在新租賃方面，我們現在略有負面。我認為這將在整個春季和夏季緩慢加速並溫和上升，然後在年底前回落。因此，今年上半年的續約率較高，略有放緩，新租賃率全年略有增長，然後隨著季節性而放緩，正如我們通常在第四季度看到的那樣，然後你將它們混合在一起並獲得我們對混合租賃的預測。

Well, on the new lease rate side, I guess what specifically -- I mean it seems like that's fairly low relative even to what you've achieved historically, prepandemic period. And with 3% market rent growth, you would think that you kind of surpass that 3% into the peak leasing season before it moderates in the back half of the year. So I guess I'm trying to understand that kind of cautious new lease rate growth assumption in your guidance? And then could you also just share what would get you to the low end of the guidance range because that seems like a pretty draconian scenario to be able to achieve the lower end?

好吧，在新的租賃率方面，我想具體是什麼——我的意思是，即使相對於你在大流行前的歷史上所取得的成就，這似乎也相當低。隨著 3% 的市場租金增長，你會認為在今年下半年放緩之前，你會在租賃旺季超過 3%。所以我想我是在試圖理解你的指導中那種謹慎的新租賃率增長假設？然後你能不能也分享一下什麼會讓你達到指導範圍的低端，因為這似乎是一個能夠達到低端的非常嚴酷的場景？

I'll give you sort of the forecast how it's laid out quarter by quarter, and Tim will give a little more specifics on it. It is fairly consistent around that 3% for the year with obviously more -- a little higher in the second 2 quarters of the year, as Tim mentioned, as we get more traffic and renewals hold stronger and new lease pricing becomes most robust. It's really going to come down to new lease pricing as the variable through the year. But the band is fairly tight around 3% in our expectation, just given the blend of over overall demand. And so...

我會給你一些預測，它是如何逐季度佈局的，蒂姆會給出更多的細節。正如蒂姆提到的那樣，今年的 3% 左右與今年的 3% 相當一致——今年後兩個季度略高一點，因為我們獲得了更多的流量，續約保持強勁，新的租賃定價變得最強勁。這真的會歸結為新的租賃定價作為全年的變量。但考慮到整體需求的混合，該區間在我們的預期中相當緊張，約為 3%。所以...

Yes, following up on the new lease rate, I mean, we again, absent last year that was record highs, new lease rates kind of November-December, early part of the first quarter, typically are negative. So it's not unusual kind of the new lease rates that we're seeing right now and then they start to accelerate as we get into the spring and summer.

是的，跟進新的租賃利率，我的意思是，我們再次沒有去年創下歷史新高，11 月至 12 月的新租賃利率，即第一季度的早期，通常是負數。因此，我們現在看到的新租賃率並不罕見，然後隨著我們進入春季和夏季，它們開始加速。

But in terms of getting to low end, I think it's kind of back to Eric's comments on the economy, if we see a further deceleration in demand or see something a shock on the economic front that could drive pricing obviously lower and that's how you get towards the lower end of the guidance and then the opposite a little bit better economic backdrop would push pricing higher and get us more to the higher end of revenue guidance.

但就低端而言，我認為這有點回到埃里克對經濟的評論，如果我們看到需求進一步減速或看到經濟方面的衝擊可能會明顯降低價格，這就是你得到的方式接近指導的低端，然後相反，稍好一點的經濟背景將推高定價，並使我們更多地達到收入指導的高端。

If That shot came, it would -- given that it's coming -- the impact will come through pricing, it would be manifest probably in the latter part of the year as those new leases blended in.

如果那槍來了，它會 - 考慮到它來了 - 影響將來自定價，隨著這些新租約的融入，它可能會在今年下半年顯現出來。

We'll take our next question from Nick Joseph with Citi.

我們將從花旗的 Nick Joseph 那裡回答下一個問題。

Eric, in your comments on the stuff, you talked about the strong balance sheet and have been in a position to capture any growth opportunities. It sounds like you think may emerge from your comments on the call, it sounds like maybe that's more of a second half '23 comment. But where do you think those opportunities could come from? Is that more acquisitions, maybe land, something else?

埃里克，在你對這些東西的評論中，你談到了強大的資產負債表，並且能夠抓住任何增長機會。聽起來你認為可能會從你對電話的評論中浮現出來，這聽起來更像是 23 年下半年的評論。但是您認為這些機會可能來自哪裡？是更多的收購，也許是土地，還是其他什麼？

Nick, I would tell you that my belief is that we've been through this in the past, where we tend to find the best opportunity is in projects that are in lease-up, fairly newly constructed. There are more likely did not have -- already finished the construction. They may be at that 50%-60% occupancy level in their initial lease-up. They've been leasing for probably the better part of the year. So they're still -- they're now getting to a point where they're starting to run into lease expirations and related turnover, which just brings that much more pressure on the lease-up effort itself.

尼克，我會告訴你，我的信念是我們過去經歷過這種情況，我們往往會發現最好的機會是在租賃的項目中，相當新建。更有可能沒有——已經完成了建設。他們在最初的租約中可能處於 50%-60% 的入住率水平。他們可能在一年中的大部分時間都在出租。所以他們仍然 - 他們現在已經到了開始遇到租約到期和相關營業額的地步，這只會給租賃工作本身帶來更大的壓力。

And these, as I say, are not yet fully stabilized assets and thus, they're more typical to -- difficult to finance from a typical leverage buyer, and so that's where we're hopeful that we will find more emerging opportunities in that kind of a scenario. We've certainly seen that in the past. And one of the things I think is important to point out, I mean, our assumptions is built around -- for 2023, our guidance is built around the assumption of a $400 million acquisition volume. Now we are assuming that their initial yield on this $400 million of acquisition is only 3%, reflecting that nonstabilized status of these investments, so while that is weighing on FFO performance for the year, we think that it has great value proposition, value opportunity going forward long term.

正如我所說，這些還不是完全穩定的資產，因此，它們更典型——難以從典型的槓桿買家那裡融資，因此我們希望我們能在其中找到更多新興機會一種場景。我們過去肯定見過這種情況。我認為需要指出的一件事很重要，我的意思是，我們的假設是圍繞 2023 年建立的，我們的指導是圍繞 4 億美元收購量的假設建立的。現在我們假設他們在這 4 億美元收購中的初始收益率僅為 3%，反映了這些投資的不穩定狀態，因此雖然這對今年的 FFO 業績造成壓力，但我們認為它具有巨大的價值主張、價值機會長期前進。

And so we're -- given the supply that's coming into the market, given the difficult financing environment we find ourselves, and then we think that, that area of opportunity is going to emerge over the course of this year, and that's what we've kind of dialed into our guidance for the year.

所以我們 - 考慮到進入市場的供應，考慮到我們發現自己的困難融資環境，然後我們認為，這個機會領域將在今年的過程中出現，這就是我們有點撥入了我們今年的指導。

That's very helpful. And then, I guess, we've spent a lot of time on kind of macro backdrop and the blended rent growth assumption and everything that goes into revenue. But if you think about from a market perspective in '23, given your, kind of, new guidance, what does that imply for which markets are kind of the top performers and which you are more concerned about?

這很有幫助。然後，我想，我們花了很多時間研究宏觀背景和混合租金增長假設以及收入的一切。但是，如果你從 23 年的市場角度考慮，給定你的某種新指導，這意味著哪些市場表現最好，你更關心哪些市場？

Yes, Nick, this is Tim. I mean with the earn-in, we talked about of our larger markets, I expect just rent growth or revenue growth should be pretty solid for several of our markets due to that earn-in. But if you think about some of the stronger ones that we think will continue into 2023, I mean, Orlando, continues to be a really strong market for us. It's been strong now for a couple of years. In terms of demand, it's our #1 job growth market that we're expecting for 2023. It is getting a little bit of supply, but it's not necessarily situated where our portfolio is in Orlando of some markets in our portfolio that are getting the most supply only one of those is in Orlando.

是的，尼克，這是蒂姆。我的意思是，在賺取收入方面，我們談到了我們更大的市場，我希望由於賺取收入，我們的幾個市場的租金增長或收入增長應該相當穩固。但如果你想想我們認為會持續到 2023 年的一些更強大的市場，我的意思是，奧蘭多對我們來說仍然是一個非常強大的市場。幾年來它一直很強大。就需求而言，這是我們預計 2023 年排名第一的就業增長市場。它有一點供應，但不一定位於我們投資組合中某些市場的投資組合在奧蘭多的位置。大多數供應只有其中一個在奧蘭多。

So the demand, combined with the supply there expects Orlando to be strong. It's continued to have really strong blended pricing both in Q4 and January. And then Dallas is another one I'd point out that we think can show some strength in 2023. It's one of our lower supply markets we would expect. There's a couple submarkets that we're in, particularly in North Dallas, Frisco, Plano, Allen that will get some supply. But broadly, Dallas hasn't seen as much supply pressure, and we've seen the pricing both in Q4 and January been a little bit higher than portfolio average.

因此，需求與供應相結合預計奧蘭多會很強勁。它在第四季度和一月份繼續保持非常強勁的混合定價。然後達拉斯是另一個我要指出的，我們認為它可以在 2023 年表現出一定的實力。這是我們預期的供應量較低的市場之一。我們有幾個子市場，特別是在北達拉斯、弗里斯科、普萊諾和艾倫，它們將獲得一些供應。但總的來說，達拉斯並沒有看到那麼大的供應壓力，而且我們看到第四季度和一月份的定價都略高於投資組合的平均水平。

So those are other couple that we've kind of got our eye on from a strength standpoint. Austin is probably one that on the downside that we're keeping our eye on more than anything. It's kind of got the extremes on supply and demand. It's one of the better indicators in terms of demand with job growth, migration, population, all that, but it also has absolute high supply coming into the market of any of our portfolios or any of the markets in our portfolio out of the various submarkets that we're seeing supply, 4 out of the top 20 are in Austin.

因此，從實力的角度來看，這些是我們關注的另一對夫婦。奧斯汀可能是我們最關注的缺點之一。它在供求方面有點極端。就就業增長、移民、人口等需求而言，這是更好的指標之一，但它也有絕對高供應進入我們任何投資組合的市場或我們投資組合中來自各個子市場的任何市場我們看到供應，前 20 名中有 4 個在奧斯汀。

So that's one we do expect to moderate, though it does have pretty good earn-in rent growth. So those are a couple that we're kind of keeping our eye on.

所以這是我們確實預計會放緩的一個，儘管它確實有相當不錯的收入租金增長。因此，我們一直在關注這對夫婦。

That's helpful. So it sounds like maybe the large still outperformed the secondary markets in '23 or maybe that spread narrows a bit?

這很有幫助。所以聽起來大型公司在 23 年的表現可能仍然優於二級市場，或者價差可能有所縮小？

Yes, it probably narrows a bit just with moderating rent growth. We typically see the secondary markets hold up a little more if we get into softer economic environment. But I think broadly in terms of revenue growth, again, with our earn-in, I would expect that the large markets hold up pretty well.

是的，隨著租金增長放緩，它可能會有所收窄。如果我們進入更疲軟的經濟環境，我們通常會看到二級市場會保持更多。但我認為，從收入增長的角度來看，再一次，憑藉我們的收入，我預計大型市場會保持良好狀態。

We'll take our next question from Anthony Powell with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾的下一個問題。

Just a question on new lease spreads and pricing going into the spring. What would cause you to get a bit more, I guess, the confident on pushing rate more as you get to the peak leasing season, would it be just general improvement and economic sentiment, jobs were (inaudible) to be where it is, the market continuing to do well? Just curious how you may change your approach to pricing in spring if things get a bit better?

只是關於進入春季的新租賃價差和定價的問題。是什麼讓你獲得更多，我想，隨著租賃高峰期的到來，你對推動利率更有信心，這是否只是普遍改善和經濟情緒，工作（聽不清）就在現在的位置，市場繼續表現良好？只是好奇如果情況有所好轉，您將如何改變春季的定價方式？

Yes. I mean, generally, it's going to be -- it will be that. It's the economy and the demand, and we look at lead volume, we look at exposure, we look at rent to income and various things there that drives some of our decisions on -- we're always sort of balancing how much we want to push price versus occupancy. So there's nothing -- there's no blinking red lights right now that would suggest that we see any sort of downturn. We're kind of -- we're kind of monitoring all those various metrics right now and everything looks about what you would typically think during this time of the year, during the winter. So it will really be as we get into spring and summer as demand picks up and traffic pick up and we pick up that will be really the determining factor on where 2023 heads in terms of demand.

是的。我的意思是，一般來說，它會是——它會是那樣。這是經濟和需求，我們看鉛量，我們看風險，我們看租金收入和各種因素，這些因素推動我們做出一些決定 - 我們總是在平衡我們想要多少推動價格與入住率。所以沒有什麼 - 現在沒有閃爍的紅燈表明我們看到任何形式的衰退。我們有點——我們現在正在監控所有這些不同的指標，一切都與你在一年中的這個時候，在冬天通常會想到的有關。因此，當我們進入春季和夏季時，隨著需求回升和交通量回升，我們意識到這將真正成為 2023 年需求走向的決定性因素。

And turnover seemed pretty consistent. And any changes in how certain residents responded to lease renewals, price increases? And any trends there you want to call out?

營業額似乎相當穩定。某些居民對續租、漲價的反應有何變化？您想指出那裡的任何趨勢嗎？

Yes. I mean the turnover was -- remains pretty low. Historically speaking, it was up a little bit in Q4, but the reasons for turn have been pretty consistent. We've actually seen the move-out to rent increase decline a little bit, but it's still -- it's a job transfer and buy a house are still the 2 biggest factors, but those have certainly been down from what we've seen in the past. But no notable trends one way or the other.

是的。我的意思是營業額是 - 仍然很低。從歷史上看，它在第四季度略有上升，但轉向的原因非常一致。我們實際上已經看到搬遷導致租金上漲有所下降，但它仍然是 - 工作調動和買房仍然是兩個最大的因素，但這些肯定低於我們在過去。但沒有任何顯著趨勢。

We'll move next with Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將與 Goldman Sachs 的 Chandni Luthra 一起移動。

Could you spend some time talking about the expense outlook for 2023, what would get you to the low end versus the high end? And guidance does talk about property taxes in there, but perhaps you could spend some time on other elements? And then what are the markets where you see more tax pressures versus others?

您能否花點時間談談 2023 年的費用前景，什麼會讓您進入低端與高端？指南中確實談到了財產稅，但也許您可以花一些時間在其他方面？那麼與其他市場相比，您看到哪些市場的稅收壓力更大？

Chandni, this is Al. I'll start with that and then maybe Tim can give some color on some of that. I think the way to think about that as you go into 2023 is, we're continuing to see general inflationary pressures a bit in our expenses, but really taxes and insurance are the drivers of the main pressure. And as I mentioned in my comments, those 2 together are over 7%. And so that's really -- and taxes are 35% of all operating expenses. So it's very meaningful.

Chandni，這是阿爾。我會從那開始，然後也許 Tim 可以給其中的一些顏色一些顏色。我認為，當你進入 2023 年時，思考這個問題的方式是，我們將繼續在我們的支出中看到一些普遍的通脹壓力，但實際上稅收和保險是主要壓力的驅動因素。正如我在評論中提到的，這兩個加起來超過 7%。所以這是真的——稅收佔所有運營費用的 35%。所以非常有意義。

And then the other expenses together are about 5.5%. I think we're beginning to see some moderation in personnel, repair maintenance and those things. I think you'll see that manifest, and Tim can talk about components of it, but as we move more into the back of the year, you'll see a little more of that manifest in those line items. But taxes and insurance, there's a pressure point. What could take us higher or lower to our guidance on the overall, which is primarily going to be taxes and insurance, would be -- we don't have a lot of information yet on either one of those.

然後其他費用加在一起大約是5.5%。我認為我們開始看到人員、維修保養等方面有所節制。我想你會看到那個清單，蒂姆可以談論它的組成部分，但隨著我們進入今年年底，你會在這些行項目中看到更多的清單。但是稅收和保險，有一個壓力點。可能使我們對總體指導（主要是稅收和保險）的指導更高或更低的是——我們還沒有關於其中任何一個的大量信息。

Taxes, when you go into the year, notoriously, you don't have a lot, you're going off -- you have a good idea what you think valuations will be based on cap rate markets, but you're totally guessing on millage rates, and that has been very volatile in the last year-or-so as municipalities deal with their budget issues. So we think we -- and we've got a few fights left over from last year. I mean we've got some things that we're going to fight hard, and we continue to taxes, we'll formally litigate half of our properties this year than we did last year, and some of those have not yet finished.

稅收，當你進入這一年時，眾所周知，你沒有很多，你要走了——你很清楚你認為估值將基於資本化率市場，但你完全是在猜測millage rates，並且在過去一年左右的時間裡，隨著市政當局處理他們的預算問題，這一數字一直非常不穩定。所以我們認為我們 - 我們還有一些去年留下的戰鬥。我的意思是我們有一些我們要努力奮鬥的事情，我們繼續徵稅，我們今年將正式對我們一半的財產提起訴訟，比去年多，其中一些尚未完成。

And so -- there are things like that, that can make you go higher or lower. We feel like we've got our best estimate in there right now, and that's the appropriate thing to do. And so overall, we'll see some moderation in the controllable expenses, but expense pressure driven by insurance and taxes.

所以 - 有這樣的事情，可以讓你走得更高或更低。我們覺得我們現在已經有了最好的估計，這是正確的做法。因此，總的來說，我們會看到可控支出有所緩和，但保險和稅收會帶來支出壓力。

Yes, Chandni, I'll add to that. As Al mentioned, about 40% of our expenses are taxed at insurance, call it, around 7%. And then the other 60% around 5.5%. So if I had to just thinking in terms of absolute year-over-year growth, I sort of rank them, I would say insurance is probably the highest, R&M probably the second highest and real estate tax is the third.

是的，Chandni，我會補充一點。正如 Al 所提到的，我們大約 40% 的費用是在保險上徵稅的，大概是 7%。然後其他 60% 大約 5.5%。因此，如果我不得不考慮絕對同比增長，我會對它們進行排序，我會說保險可能是最高的，R&M 可能是第二高的，房地產稅是第三高的。

So hitting on R&M, it's really driven by inflationary pressures, not so much we expect to get really any worse in 2023, that kind of carry over earn-in, if you will, on some of the inflationary increases that we saw in 2022, we've seen HVAC up 16%, plumbing up 18%, appliances up 17%. So that's expected to drive the pressure on the R&M side, but we still remain on a per unit basis lower than the sector average. I do think personnel moderates from what we saw in 2022. I think we have some opportunity there. But -- and then the other smaller line items are fairly manageable. So it's really on a controllable, if you will, side it's R&M, we think is driving the bulk of the increase.

因此，就 R&M 而言，它實際上是由通脹壓力驅動的，我們預計 2023 年情況不會變得更糟，如果你願意的話，在我們在 2022 年看到的一些通脹上升的情況下，這種結轉收益，我們看到 HVAC 上漲了 16%，管道上漲了 18%，家電上漲了 17%。因此，預計這將推動 R&M 方面的壓力，但我們仍然以單位為基礎低於行業平均水平。我確實認為人員比我們在 2022 年看到的要緩和。我認為我們在那裡有一些機會。但是 - 然後其他較小的訂單項是相當易於管理的。所以它真的是可控的，如果你願意的話，它是 R&M，我們認為這是推動大部分增長的因素。

Thank you for all that detail. For my follow-up question, I just wanted to clarify or trying to understand how are you thinking about bad debt in 2023? What's embedded in your guidance? If there is anything? And how does that compare versus 2022? And then as you've obviously talked about supply being higher in 2023, how are you thinking about concessions? Are you seeing more concessions in your markets, in your properties? Any thoughts around that would be very helpful.

謝謝你提供的所有細節。對於我的後續問題，我只是想澄清或試圖了解您如何看待 2023 年的壞賬？你的指導中包含什麼？如果有什麼？與 2022 年相比如何？然後，正如您顯然已經談到 2023 年供應量增加一樣，您如何考慮讓步？您是否在您的市場和物業中看到更多優惠？對此的任何想法都會非常有幫助。

I'll start with the bad debt. I mean I think in terms of what we have in our guidance, collection practices have come pretty much back to normal, not 100% maybe, but very close, I would say (inaudible) something to say about that. But -- so collections are very good. What we dialed in as close to historic normal, call it, 40 to 50 basis points delinquency, which is very low.

我將從壞賬開始。我的意思是，我認為就我們的指南而言，收款行為已經恢復正常，也許不是 100%，但非常接近，我想說（聽不清）一些事情。但是——所以收藏非常好。我們撥入的數據接近歷史正常水平，稱之為 40 到 50 個基點的拖欠率，這是非常低的。

And we have almost no collections coming from any government programs. We have the amount of our uncollected from history as it continues to decline. So we're in a very good position there. And so that our forecast for the year reflects that. And so moderating or normalizing trends that we're putting our forecast really has collections about where they typically are in a normal environment.

而且我們幾乎沒有來自任何政府計劃的藏品。隨著歷史的繼續下降，我們有大量未從歷史中收集的東西。所以我們在那里處於非常有利的位置。因此，我們對今年的預測反映了這一點。因此，我們預測的緩和或正常化趨勢確實收集了它們在正常環境中的典型位置。

Yes. And, one, I'll add on the concession point, we're not seeing any significant increase in concessions at this point. It was 0.3% of rents overall in Q4, which is in line with what we saw in Q3. We are -- to the extent we're seeing them, it's still largely across the portfolio, more in some of the urban or downtown submarkets, which has seen more of the supply and seeing less concession usage on more suburban assets. But generally, no big change from what we've seen in the last couple of quarters.

是的。而且，第一，我要補充一下讓步點，我們目前沒有看到讓步有任何顯著增加。這是第四季度整體租金的 0.3%，這與我們在第三季度看到的情況一致。我們是——就我們所看到的而言，它仍然主要分佈在整個投資組合中，更多的是在一些城市或市中心的子市場，這些子市場的供應更多，而更多郊區資產的特許權使用更少。但總的來說，與我們在過去幾個季度看到的情況相比並沒有太大變化。

We'll take our next question from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們將與 Mizuho 一起接受 Haendel St. Juste 的下一個問題。

Few questions from me on the external growth front. I was at National Multi-Housing, too, but heard that there's a -- that buyers have more institutional demand, but a shortage of sellers and products. But I guess I'm curious if you would see an advantage who have selling more assets now is that perhaps the premium and perhaps be willing to sell a bit earlier in the year to capitalize on -- even if it doesn't mean to put a dilution as the way to redeploy in a more favorable acquisition market in the back half of the year?

我幾乎沒有關於外部增長方面的問題。我也曾在 National Multi-Housing 工作過，但聽說買家有更多的機構需求，但賣家和產品短缺。但我想我很好奇你是否會看到現在出售更多資產的優勢可能是溢價並且可能願意在今年早些時候出售以利用 - 即使這並不意味著投入稀釋作為在今年下半年更有利的收購市場重新部署的方式？

Yes. Haendel, this is Brad. I'll take that. As we entered this year, our disposition plan is really a big component of that, as you mentioned, is the ability to redeploy that capital. That's a big part of what we're looking to do. And so we're not generally looking to time the market. We do a very in-depth review of our disposition plans in the third, fourth quarter of the year to really identify what we're going to sell for the year.

是的。亨德爾，這是布拉德。我會接受的。當我們進入今年時，我們的處置計劃確實是其中的一個重要組成部分，正如你提到的那樣，是重新部署該資本的能力。這是我們想要做的事情的很大一部分。因此，我們通常不希望把握市場時機。我們在今年第三、第四季度對我們的處置計劃進行了非常深入的審查，以真正確定我們今年要出售的產品。

And we generally don't factor in -- what we think are going to be the market dynamics in terms of just maximizing value. We want to do that. But broadly speaking, what we're trying to do is really build a long-term earnings profile within the company that really supports our ability to pay a growing dividend over time. And so we think that's better done on a consistent basis where we're in a position to be able to sell assets, maximize our proceeds to the best we can and then redeploy that capital into external growth opportunities.

而且我們通常不會考慮 - 我們認為就價值最大化而言將成為市場動態的因素。我們想這樣做。但從廣義上講，我們正在努力做的是真正在公司內部建立長期盈利狀況，真正支持我們隨著時間的推移支付不斷增長的股息的能力。因此，我們認為最好在一致的基礎上完成，我們能夠出售資產，最大限度地提高我們的收益，然後將該資本重新部署到外部增長機會中。

So what we have in our forecast right now is a sale of 1 asset earlier in the year. And the reason for that is we're targeting a strong primary market that's in Charlotte where we think we can, kind of, maximize the proceeds given the fact that there aren't a lot of sellers out there right now in that specific market. And then we'll come out with our other assets later in the year when we think the debt markets will be a little bit settled down a little bit, spreads will be a little bit less volatile than where they are right now and frankly, where buyers can get a little bit more visibility on values. We think that that's the best direction for us in terms of our dispositions and our external growth plan.

因此，我們目前的預測是今年早些時候出售一項資產。這樣做的原因是我們的目標是夏洛特的一個強大的一級市場，我們認為我們可以在某種程度上最大化收益，因為目前在該特定市場上沒有很多賣家。然後我們將在今年晚些時候推出我們的其他資產，屆時我們認為債務市場會稍微穩定一點，利差的波動性會比現在低一些，坦率地說，買家可以對價值有更多的了解。我們認為，就我們的配置和外部增長計劃而言，這對我們來說是最好的方向。

That's very helpful. I appreciate the color there. A follow-up maybe on the different tax, but external growth related. We've seen a lot of mid- and high for cap rate trades of late, but hearing the bid-ask spread that remains fairly wide, 10 -- from some folks, so curious kind of what you're hearing or seeing on the bid-ask spread? And how this plays out? What do you think the market clearing price is or what you'd be willing to pay to get some deals done here?

這很有幫助。我欣賞那裡的顏色。後續行動可能涉及不同的稅收，但與外部增長有關。我們最近看到了很多上限利率交易的中高價，但從一些人那裡聽到的買賣價差仍然相當寬，10，所以對你在買賣價差？結果如何？你認為市場清算價格是多少，或者你願意支付多少來完成一些交易？

Yes. It's hard to say. I mean there's just -- as we looked at the market in the fourth quarter, honestly, in terms of the assets that we would be interested in buying and track, there was really only 7. So in the universe of us normally tracking 40 deals in a quarter to only have 7 transact is a very, very small universe. And we have seen cap rates move up. I would say, in the third quarter, they're around 4.5 on the projects that we looked at.

是的。這很難說。我的意思是，正如我們在第四季度觀察市場時，老實說，就我們有興趣購買和跟踪的資產而言，實際上只有 7 筆。所以在我們的宇宙中通常跟踪 40 筆交易在一個季度內只有 7 筆交易是一個非常非常小的宇宙。我們已經看到資本化率上升。我會說，在第三季度，他們在我們查看的項目中的得分約為 4.5。

In the fourth quarter, they were 4.75. We -- but there's a spread, obviously, and it really depends on where the assets are located. We saw one in the fourth quarter that traded, call it, for 5.25, but generally, when you're getting into that cap rate range right now, we found that the quality of the asset or the location is not ideal and it's not generally a location that we're interested in. So for assets we're interested in, they're still in the 4.75 range.

在第四節，他們是 4.75。我們 - 但顯然存在差異，這實際上取決於資產所在的位置。我們在第四季度看到一個交易，稱之為 5.25，但一般來說，當你現在進入這個上限率範圍時，我們發現資產或位置的質量並不理想，而且通常不是我們感興趣的位置。因此對於我們感興趣的資產，它們仍在 4.75 範圍內。

To your earlier point, I think part of the driver there is that there's just not a lot on the market. And I think as more volume begins to come to market, which we think will happen late second quarter and into the third quarter later this year, even as more properties come to market that those cap rates likely expand a bit. I mean the fact is interest rates are up substantially.

對於你之前的觀點，我認為部分驅動因素是市場上沒有太多。而且我認為隨著更多的交易量開始進入市場，我們認為這將在今年第二季度末和第三季度晚些時候發生，即使更多的房產進入市場，這些資本化率可能會有所擴大。我的意思是事實是利率大幅上升。

Today, the debt rates are 5 to 5.5 and that's got to push cap rates up at some point, negative leverage is not something that we can maintain in perpetuity. But until you have a significant volume of assets coming to market, there's still going to be a number of aggressive buyers out there that are bidding hard at assets that are really setting a lower cap rate range. And then I would also say that a majority of what's selling right now continues to be loan assumptions. And so that kind of masks what true cap rates are out in the market, and we just need volume to really help us see that.

今天，債務利率為 5 至 5.5，這必須在某個時候推高資本化率，負槓桿不是我們可以永久維持的東西。但是，在你有大量資產進入市場之前，仍然會有一些激進的買家在競標真正設定較低資本化率範圍的資產。然後我還要說，現在出售的大部分產品仍然是貸款假設。因此，這種情況掩蓋了市場上真正的資本化率，我們只需要數量來真正幫助我們看到這一點。

That's really helpful, too, appreciate that. If I could squeeze in one more. I don't think I heard it, but did you guys share or can you share what your turnover assumption is for a full year '23?

這也很有幫助，非常感謝。如果我能再擠一個。我想我沒聽說過，但是你們有沒有分享，或者你們能分享你們對 23 年全年的營業額假設嗎？

Yes, Haendel, this is Tim. For now, we're expecting it to be pretty similar. I think some of the reasons that drove turnover this year probably moderate a little bit and maybe some of the other reasons go up a little bit. But on -- in general, we're expecting similar turnover to what we saw in 2022.

是的，亨德爾，這是蒂姆。現在，我們期待它非常相似。我認為今年推動營業額增長的一些原因可能會有所緩和，而其他一些原因可能會有所上升。但總的來說，我們預計營業額與 2022 年相似。

We'll take our next question from Rich Anderson with SMBC.

我們將從 SMBC 的 Rich Anderson 那裡回答下一個問題。

My first question is on the expected deceleration of rent growth, obviously, in 2023, no one is surprised by that. But I'm wondering if you can sort of get into some more of the nitty-gritty detail of where you're landing, how much of it is proactive on your part? How much of is it reactive? Are you sensing fatigue from customers?

我的第一個問題是關於租金增長的預期減速，顯然，到 2023 年，沒有人對此感到驚訝。但我想知道您是否可以深入了解您著陸點的更多細節，其中有多少是您主動的？它有多少是反應性的？您是否感覺到客戶的疲勞？

Are you noticing occupancy moving around or turnover? I think you mentioned -- Tim, I think you mentioned turnover uptick in the fourth quarter. Are there any things that you're reacting to that's causing you to pinpoint where you're headed for Same Store growth revenue -- growth in 2023? Or are you just sort of protecting the downside given some of the uncertainty in the macro environment and being more proactive in your approach?

您是否注意到入住率四處移動或人員流動？我想你提到過——蒂姆，我想你提到了第四季度的營業額上升。您是否對任何事情做出反應，導致您確定同店收入增長的方向——2023 年的增長？或者，鑑於宏觀環境中的一些不確定性，您只是在某種程度上保護不利因素並在您的方法中更加積極主動？

Well, Rich, this is Eric. Let me try to answer that. I think that at the ground level, I would say that we're not really seeing anything at this point that causes us to believe that we're looking at a much weaker demand environment over the coming year. I mean as I touched on earlier, I mean we're still seeing no evidence of distress with our rental base. Our rent-to-income ratios remain very stable relative to where they have been. Collections performance has been very strong. We're not seeing any behavioral changes with roommating, things of that nature. We're not in the trends to migrate -- migration trends continue to be quite positive.

嗯，里奇，這是埃里克。讓我試著回答一下。我認為在地面上，我會說我們目前並沒有真正看到任何讓我們相信我們正在尋找來年疲軟得多的需求環境的東西。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，我的意思是我們仍然沒有看到任何跡象表明我們的租賃基礎存在問題。相對於過去，我們的租金收入比仍然非常穩定。收款表現非常強勁。我們沒有看到室友有任何行為變化，這種性質的事情。我們沒有遷移的趨勢——遷移趨勢仍然非常積極。

Move-outs to non-MAA markets or move-outs out of the Sun Belt continue to be quite low. So I think more than anything for us, we're just trying to keep an eye on the broader economy and the broader employment markets and any evidence that the employers are really starting to get aggressive at downscaling and downsizing their staffing. And we've not seen that yet, but that would be obviously a pause for concern.

向非 MAA 市場的轉移或從太陽帶轉移的數量仍然很低。因此，我認為對我們來說最重要的是，我們只是在努力關注更廣泛的經濟和更廣泛的就業市場，以及雇主真正開始積極縮減員工規模的任何證據。我們還沒有看到，但這顯然是一個令人擔憂的暫停。

But at a macro level, move-outs for home buying continues to be quite low, and there's no evidence mounting that that's starting to change. And move-outs due to the -- people not wanting to pay their rent increase that we're asking for, still is our third biggest reason. But we're still having people come in after them when they do move out, willing to pay more than what we were asking the renewing resident to pay. So that's a -- that to me, is a fairly strong indicator that the market is still holding up quite well.

但在宏觀層面上，購房者的遷出率仍然很低，而且沒有越來越多的證據表明這種情況開始發生變化。由於人們不想支付我們要求的租金上漲而搬出，這仍然是我們的第三大原因。但是，當他們搬出時，我們仍然有人在他們搬走後進來，他們願意支付比我們要求續約居民支付的更多的錢。因此，對我來說，這是一個相當有力的指標，表明市場仍然保持良好狀態。

And so I think we're just -- we're moderating off of incredible highs and that's what's happening here. But in terms of any significant pullback in demand, we're just not seeing that at this point.

所以我認為我們只是 - 我們正在從令人難以置信的高點緩和下來，這就是這裡正在發生的事情。但就需求的任何顯著回落而言，我們目前還沒有看到。

Okay. Fair enough. Second question is just closing the loop on the supply conversation, what always happens is developers chasing 2022 growth by delivering product in 2024. Always a smart strategy. But I guess my question is, do you feel like given the environment and interest rates and everything else, do you feel like sort of the private developer model is on shakier ground than normal this time around? And perhaps even more of an opportunity for you to step in at some point down the road? Or is it sort of a typical environment, different, obviously, variables, but a typical opportunity for you that you are too down the road?

好的。很公平。第二個問題只是關閉供應對話的循環，總是發生的是開發人員通過在 2024 年交付產品來追求 2022 年的增長。始終是一個明智的策略。但我想我的問題是，考慮到環境和利率以及其他一切，你是否覺得這次私人開發商模式比正常情況更不穩定？也許您在未來的某個時刻有更多機會介入？或者它是一種典型的環境，不同的，顯然，變量，但對你來說是一個典型的機會，你太落後了？

Rich, this is Brad. I definitely think in terms of new starts, they're on much shakier ground, the privates are, for sure, in terms of getting financing. I would say that anything that is in lease-up right now -- I mean there's not distress in that market currently. So there's not a lot of forced selling at the moment. Now there are still equity and capital folks that they want to cycle out of.

里奇，這是布拉德。我絕對認為，就新的開始而言，他們的基礎要不穩定得多，當然，私人在獲得融資方面也是如此。我想說的是，現在正在出租的任何東西——我的意思是目前那個市場上沒有任何困境。所以目前沒有太多的強制出售。現在仍然有他們想要退出的股權和資本人士。

As I mentioned earlier, our region is predominantly controlled or developed by merchant developers and they're really -- their model is built on developing an asset and selling it, taking the profit, moving on to the next deal and rinsing and repeating. I'd say that, that's a little bit in flux right now with nothing selling and the inability to start new assets. I would say the private developer is a little bit more in flux right now because of those reasons.

正如我之前提到的，我們的地區主要由商業開發商控製或開發，他們真的——他們的模式建立在開發資產並出售、獲利、繼續下一筆交易、沖洗和重複的基礎上。我想說的是，現在有點變化，沒有任何銷售，也無法啟動新資產。我想說，由於這些原因，私人開發商現在有點不穩定。

We'll take our next question from Wes Golladay with Baird.

我們將與 Baird 一起接受 Wes Golladay 的下一個問題。

Last year, you had about just under $200 million of nonrecurring CapEx, how are you thinking about the spend for this year? And is there anything in there that would drive down expenses maybe in 2023 or 2024?

去年，您的非經常性資本支出略低於 2 億美元，您如何看待今年的支出？那裡有什麼可以降低 2023 年或 2024 年的開支嗎？

Wes, this is Al. I'll start and frame the capital -- I mean overall, we're spending -- all the programs together probably around $300 million and its recurring and enhancing together probably $180 million. And so that's about $1,800 a unit, probably $1,000 recurring a little more and the rest being rent-enhancing. We continue our programs -- unit redevelopment program, which includes our smart grant. So we'll do those interior programs that's smart together -- that's another $97 million, and we'll continue our property repositioning program, which Tim talks about taking properties and increasing their revenue potential of another $20 million-or-so.

韋斯，這是艾爾。我將啟動並規劃資本——我的意思是，總體而言，我們正在支出——所有項目加在一起可能約為 3 億美元，其經常性和增強性項目加在一起可能約為 1.8 億美元。因此，這大約是每套 1,800 美元，可能會多出 1,000 美元，其餘部分用於提高租金。我們繼續我們的計劃——單元重建計劃，其中包括我們的智能撥款。所以我們將一起做那些聰明的室內項目——那是另外 9700 萬美元，我們將繼續我們的財產重新定位計劃，蒂姆談到拿走財產並增加他們的收入潛力再增加 2000 萬美元左右。

So overall, it's about $300 million. I mean certainly, there's some -- there's certainly some things in the revenue as we think whether there'll be some ESG investments or some things like that, that will have some potential for the future. We're also seeing some inflationary pressures in that as well. And then a large portion of that is just investment for the future in some of those programs, repositioning program, redevelopment and smart rents. So that's kind of how we think about that.

所以總的來說，大約是3億美元。我的意思是，當然有一些——收入中肯定有一些東西，因為我們認為是否會有一些 ESG 投資或類似的東西，這對未來有一定的潛力。我們也看到了一些通脹壓力。然後其中很大一部分只是對其中一些項目、重新定位項目、重建和智能租金的未來投資。這就是我們的想法。

Okay. And then I guess as we maybe fast forward for the next few years, does this ever start to ramp down? Or do you have just a big pipeline of when the smart rents done, you just move on to something else? How should we think about a multiyear view on this?

好的。然後我想我們可能會在接下來的幾年裡快進，這是否會開始下降？或者當智能租金完成時，你是否有一個很大的管道，你只是轉向其他事情？我們應該如何考慮對此的多年看法？

Yes. Wes, this is Tim. I mean, in total, I think it comes down a little bit. Smart rent installation is a fairly significant piece of that, we expect to finish that capital project this year. I think you'll see that come down. But I would expect both on the unit interior redevelopment program and the broader sort of amenity-based property repositioning programs that we expect to continue those at similar levels.

是的。韋斯，這是蒂姆。我的意思是，總的來說，我認為它會下降一點。智能租金安裝是其中相當重要的一部分，我們預計今年將完成該資本項目。我想你會看到它下來。但我希望在單元內部重建計劃和更廣泛的基於便利設施的財產重新定位計劃中，我們希望在類似水平上繼續這些計劃。

Okay. And then did you comment on the exposure right now? I might have missed it?

好的。然後你對現在的曝光發表評論了嗎？我可能錯過了？

Exposure right now sit at about 7.5%, which is in line with what it was last year and kind of what we would typically expect this time of the year.

目前的曝光率約為 7.5%，這與去年的情況一致，也符合我們通常對每年這個時候的預期。

We'll take our next question from Rob Stevenson with Janney.

我們將與 Janney 一起接受 Rob Stevenson 的下一個問題。

Brad, what are the markets represented by the 4 to 6 development starts over the next year plus? And given Tim's comments on R&M pressures, what are you seeing in terms of construction cost pressures going forward for new starts?

布拉德，明年開始的 4 到 6 個開發代表的市場是什麼？鑑於蒂姆對 R&M 壓力的評論，您對新開工的建築成本壓力有何看法？

Yes, Rob. So for the 4 starts that we feel we're in good shape on for this year. We've got one in Charlotte, we've got one in Denver, we've got one in Orlando and one in Atlanta. I think I had those in my prepared comments. So those are projects we've been working on for a while and plans are in process on those. So we feel pretty good about those. In addition to those projects, we own a number of sites and we've got some in Denver, another phase in Orlando. Second phase in the Raleigh market. So a number of those projects that would add up to that 6 over the next 18 months-or-so. But for this year, the 4 are the ones that I mentioned in my comments.

是的，羅伯。因此，對於今年的 4 場比賽，我們感覺狀態良好。我們在夏洛特有一個，在丹佛有一個，在奧蘭多有一個，在亞特蘭大有一個。我想我在準備好的評論中有這些。所以這些是我們已經進行了一段時間的項目，並且正在製定這些項目的計劃。所以我們對這些感覺很好。除了這些項目之外，我們還擁有許多網站，我們在丹佛和奧蘭多的另一個階段也有一些。羅利市場二期。因此，在接下來的 18 個月左右的時間裡，這些項目中的一些將加起來達到 6 個。但今年，這 4 個是我在評論中提到的。

In terms of construction costs, what we're seeing right now is that costs are not escalating like they were in 2022. We saw a significant increase in construction costs throughout the year. At this point, we're not seeing that at the moment. It's certainly our hope that as we get further into this year, the times where our developments will be starting second -- or third and fourth quarter that perhaps we get some relief there.

在建築成本方面，我們現在看到的是成本沒有像 2022 年那樣上升。我們看到全年建築成本顯著增加。在這一點上，我們目前還沒有看到。我們當然希望，隨著我們進入今年，我們的發展將在第二季度或第三和第四季度開始，也許我們會在那裡得到一些緩解。

The first signs of that are that we're getting calls from contractors saying they didn't think they had capacity to bid our job originally, but now they do. We're hearing that from subcontractors as well. So given where the single-family market is, and the fact that we expect new supply starts to come down on multifamily, we hope to see some relief on the construction side. But for now, it's just holding flat.

最初的跡像是，我們接到承包商的電話，說他們認為他們最初沒有能力競標我們的工作，但現在他們有能力了。我們也從分包商那裡聽到了這一點。因此，鑑於單戶住宅市場的情況，以及我們預計多戶住宅的新供應量開始下降這一事實，我們希望看到建築方面有所緩解。但就目前而言，它只是持平。

Okay. And then, Al, G&A was 58.8 in '22 and the guidance is 55.5 at the midpoint for '23. Obviously, Tom's left, but what else is in that expected decrease?

好的。然後，Al，22 年的 G&A 為 58.8，23 年的中點指導值為 55.5。顯然，湯姆離開了，但預期的減少還有什麼？

I think that's -- well, let me start with Rob as we talked about, we really look at overhead as a total. And so I would focus more on the 128.5 and then that's little over 3% growth in total for the year, which we think is rise. But on that specific G&A line, the biggest item there is we had very strong performance in 2022. You've got certain programs that -- performance incentive programs that are bit at max and then we said our guidance for next year is based on target -- its a target, so that's a big part of that.

我認為那是——好吧，讓我從我們談到的 Rob 開始，我們真的把管理費用看成一個整體。因此，我會更多地關注 128.5，然後今年的增長率略高於 3%，我們認為這是上升。但是在那個特定的 G&A 線上，最大的項目是我們在 2022 年的表現非常強勁。你有某些計劃——績效激勵計劃是最大的，然後我們說我們明年的指導是基於目標- 它是一個目標，所以這是其中很大一部分。

And then on the property management expense line, the growth in that, that you see is really investments in -- primarily in technology, both to strengthen our platform and to support the initiatives that were going on. So -- and I answered both of those because I think that's both together a part of that overall overhead growth for the year, Rob.

然後在物業管理費用線上，你看到的增長實際上是投資 - 主要是技術，既可以加強我們的平台，也可以支持正在進行的計劃。所以 - 我回答了這兩個問題，因為我認為這兩者都是今年整體管理費用增長的一部分，Rob。

We'll take our next question from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們將接受來自瑞銀的 Michael Goldsmith 的下一個問題。

What's the expected expense growth cadence during the year? Is that relatively flat or is that accelerating? And within that are you -- you have a midyear renewal or insurance but easier compares in the back half, how does that reconcile? And then on real estate taxes, the midpoint of the guidance is 6.25%, but that would be lower than 6.5% last year. So I'm just trying to understand the shape of the expenses through the year and also why the real estate taxes would be perhaps slightly down this year?

年內預期的費用增長節奏是怎樣的？那是相對平坦還是正在加速？你在其中 - 你有年中續約或保險，但在後半段比較容易，這如何調和？然後是房地產稅，指導的中點為 6.25%，但低於去年的 6.5%。所以我只是想了解全年的支出情況，以及為什麼今年的房地產稅可能會略有下降？

Okay. I'll try to answer that. This is Al. I think what you -- the cadence for expenses, you should see the most pressure in probably Q1, and that's because you've got a continuation of sort of the inflationary levels that we saw in third and fourth quarter carrying sequentially over and comparing to Q1 last year with a lot of inflationary pressure wasn't yet built in. So the highest point would probably be Q1 and it will moderate down in Q2 and Q3 to more level more that mid-single-digit range. So that's the main thing.

好的。我會盡力回答這個問題。這是阿爾。我認為你 - 支出的節奏，你應該在第一季度看到最大的壓力，那是因為你有我們在第三和第四季度看到的通貨膨脹水平的延續，並與去年第一季度通脹壓力還沒有形成。因此最高點可能是第一季度，第二季度和第三季度將放緩至超過中個位數範圍的水平。所以這是最主要的事情。

In taxes, the 6.25%, I think we are -- last year, what we saw in 2022 was looking back to a strong year, we saw millage rates come in that we thought would roll back more than they did, it surprised us a little bit in the fourth quarter as we talked about. And so that was -- we ended the year a little higher than we expected in 2022. And I think as we move in 2023, we don't expect significant reprising key areas.

在稅收方面，我認為我們是 6.25%——去年，我們在 2022 年看到了強勁的一年，我們看到了我們認為會比他們回落得更多的千分率，這讓我們感到驚訝正如我們所說的，在第四季度有一點點。所以那是——我們在 2022 年結束了這一年，略高於我們的預期。而且我認為，隨著我們在 2023 年的發展，我們預計關鍵領域不會出現重大反彈。

Our -- we got a pretty -- we have a pretty good beat on what's revaluing this year, it's primarily Texas and part of Atlanta, parts of Georgia, there's primarily Atlanta, and so given what's revaluing and our expectations for millage rates, and we have a few of our cases from 2022 that we're litigating that are spilling over into 2023. And so we've got an estimate of what we think we'll win on that. We may be wrong, but we've got an estimate on that, included in that. So all that together gets us that, that 6.25% range. And a lot of unknown in that right now, as we talked about, but we think where we stand, that's a very good estimate.

我們的 - 我們有一個漂亮的 - 我們對今年的重估有一個很好的擊敗，它主要是德克薩斯州和亞特蘭大的一部分，佐治亞州的部分地區，主要是亞特蘭大，所以考慮到重估和我們對千分率的預期，和我們有一些從 2022 年開始訴訟的案件將延續到 2023 年。因此，我們已經估計了我們認為我們會在這方面獲勝的情況。我們可能是錯的，但我們對此有一個估計，包括在其中。所以所有這些加在一起讓我們得到了 6.25% 的範圍。正如我們所說，現在還有很多未知數，但我們認為我們的立場是一個非常好的估計。

Got it. And sticking with you, Al. NOI growth has been strong, but property values haven't had the same magnitude of increase due to the rise in cap rate. So does that leave more opportunity for a successful appeals maybe in '24 and beyond?

知道了。和你在一起，艾爾。 NOI 增長強勁，但由於資本化率上升，房地產價值並未出現同樣幅度的增長。那麼，這是否為 24 世紀及以後的成功上訴留下了更多機會？

Yes. I think what we'd say is '23 is a year just that they're still looking back at very strong revenue -- it's kind of backward-looking game, looking at the beginning of this year. Still looking at strong revenues for 2022, and a pretty stable cap rate environment has changed, but it's still fairly stable. So that's driving that.

是的。我想我們要說的是，23 年是他們仍在回顧非常強勁的收入的一年——這是一種回顧遊戲，回顧今年年初。仍然期待 2022 年的強勁收入，相當穩定的資本化率環境已經改變，但它仍然相當穩定。所以這就是驅動力。

I do think your point, I think, is a very good point. As we move into 2024 that they're looking back in a more normalized year, we would expect some moderation in taxes, primarily in Texas, Georgia and Florida. We're seeing that in most pressure because there -- it's going to be driven by a normalized top line to your point. So we would agree with that comment.

我確實認為你的觀點非常好。隨著我們進入 2024 年，他們正在回顧更加正常化的一年，我們預計稅收會有所緩和，主要是在德克薩斯州、佐治亞州和佛羅里達州。我們在最大的壓力下看到了這一點，因為那裡——它將由標準化的頂線驅動到你的觀點。所以我們同意該意見。

We'll take our next question from John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們將接受來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski 的下一個問題。

Al, maybe just a few quick follow-ups on the property tax conversation. Could you just give me a rough sense what percentage of the portfolio you already have a high degree of visibility for the increases this year?

Al，也許只是關於財產稅對話的一些快速跟進。你能不能粗略地告訴我你已經對今年的增長有很高的知名度的投資組合的百分比是多少？

Man, it's -- what we have a high degree of visibility is pretty low, other than we have a good beat on what we think the values are. Obviously, we know given the current cap rate environment is what they are. And John, I mean, 70% to 75% of our tax exposure is from Texas, Florida and Georgia. So it's really going to come down to the millage rates. It's going to turn down to what municipalities need? What are they going to -- we expect to have continued strong valuations and probably millage rates rolling back again.

伙計，除了我們對我們認為的價值觀有很好的了解之外，我們的知名度非常低。顯然，鑑於當前的資本化率環境，我們知道它們是什麼。約翰，我的意思是，我們 70% 到 75% 的稅收風險來自德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州和佐治亞州。所以這真的要歸結為千分率。它將轉向市政當局需要什麼？他們將要做什麼——我們預計估值將繼續保持強勁，並且可能會再次回落。

Where that all ends up? It's hard to have precise visibility at this point. I mean I think we have consultants that help us. We have a lot of market knowledge. So it's based on -- our estimates based on Texas, Georgia and Florida, the key drivers of our expense.

這一切都在哪裡結束？在這一點上很難有精確的可見性。我的意思是我認為我們有幫助我們的顧問。我們有很多市場知識。所以它基於——我們基於德克薩斯州、佐治亞州和佛羅里達州的估計，這是我們支出的主要驅動因素。

And that's -- I wish we had more at this point, but I do think that our experience, our history in the markets, our consultants give us a pretty good understanding at this point, as good as we can have until second quarter, John, we'll have more third quarter, we'll have not perfect, but very good knowledge, I would say.

那就是 - 我希望我們在這一點上有更多，但我確實認為我們的經驗，我們在市場上的歷史，我們的顧問讓我們在這一點上有很好的理解，就像我們在第二季度之前所能擁有的一樣好，約翰，我們會有更多的第三季度，我們不會完美，但我會說非常好的知識。

Okay. And I understand there's a range around all the estimates. But just curious, Al, what do you think a reasonable worst-case scenario is for property taxes this year?

好的。我知道所有的估計都有一個範圍。但只是好奇，Al，你認為今年財產稅的合理最壞情況是什麼？

That's kind of why we've been a little higher -- I'm sorry yes, that's -- good question. That's why we put a little bit higher range or a wider range on that, John. You saw that we put 7 at the top end of our -- I think that's what we would say. I mean we're 6.25 -- it could go -- you could have some things go either way. We're hopeful that we have some strong fights in these areas, but I think 7 would be several things going against us that we didn't expect.

這就是為什麼我們稍微高一點的原因——對不起，是的，這是——好問題。約翰，這就是我們將範圍放高一點或放寬一點的原因。你看到我們把 7 放在我們的最頂端 - 我想這就是我們會說的。我的意思是我們是 6.25——它可能會——你可以讓一些事情以任何一種方式進行。我們希望我們在這些領域有一些激烈的戰鬥，但我認為 7 會是一些我們沒有預料到的對我們不利的事情。

Is 8, 9, 10, 0 probability if cities don't lower millage rates...

如果城市不降低 millage rates 是 8, 9, 10, 0 的概率......

I mean 8, 9 or 10. I mean, given what's revaluing and given the shape of where things are, I think 8, 9, 10 is probably low probability, but I do think 0 too low end is low probably -- I mean it is the best this how it had, we're looking back again to a very strong 2022. I'm going to use that to put a cap rate on. And so I think it's hard to see much reduction in expectation this year. But as we mentioned, John, as you move into 2024, it would be hard to not be able to argue that some of those because so we would expect what moderation that we see at the beginning of 2024.

我的意思是 8、9 或 10。我的意思是，考慮到正在重估的東西和事物所在的形狀，我認為 8、9、10 可能是低概率，但我確實認為 0 太低可能是低的——我的意思是這是最好的情況，我們再次回顧非常強勁的 2022 年。我將用它來設定上限率。因此，我認為今年的期望值很難大幅降低。但正如我們提到的，約翰，當你進入 2024 年時，很難不爭論其中的一些，因為我們預計在 2024 年初會看到什麼樣的緩和。

We'll take our next question from Tayo Okusanya with Credit Suisse.

我們將接受瑞士信貸 Tayo Okusanya 的下一個問題。

Yes. Just a broader general question about the regulatory backdrop. Again, I apologize if this has been asked. But again, just a lot of talk in several municipalities around additional rent control, even at the federal level, you have the White House putting out guidelines. Just curious, your overall thoughts on this particular actually have any impact in the short, medium or long term. But if you kind of think maybe a lot of the suggestions are just things that may not impact you at all because it's all about just reading out the bad players in the industry?

是的。只是關於監管背景的更廣泛的一般性問題。再次，如果有人問到這個問題，我深表歉意。但同樣，即使在聯邦層面，幾個城市都在談論額外的租金控制，白宮也制定了指導方針。只是好奇，您對這個特定問題的總體想法實際上會在短期、中期或長期內產生任何影響。但是，如果您認為也許很多建議只是對您根本沒有影響的事情，因為它只是在讀出行業中的不良參與者？

Tayo, this is Rob. I'll be answering that. I think really like if you -- if you start at the Federal level and the White House blueprint that they put out a couple of weeks ago, it really does seem to focus a lot on -- more on the affordable housing component of it. And really almost using the agencies as part of the leverage there, as we look at our states in which we operate and the municipalities, there is some rent control pressure or proposals that come up from time to time, but really don't ever see them gain any traction.

Tayo，這是 Rob。我會回答的。我認為真的很像如果你——如果你從聯邦層面和他們幾週前提出的白宮藍圖開始，它似乎確實非常關注——更多地關注其中的經濟適用房部分。當我們審視我們經營所在的州和市政當局時，實際上幾乎利用這些機構作為槓桿的一部分，不時會出現一些租金控制壓力或建議，但實際上從未見過他們獲得了任何牽引力。

So from a -- kind of a short, medium term, we don't really see anything as we're tracking legislation across the Board that gives us any significant concern and still view it as really -- if affordable housing is the end goal, it's more of a supply-driven pressure that needs to be added to the system rather than focusing on rent control, which ultimately is a negative for both the owners and the residents.

因此，從短期和中期來看，我們真的沒有看到任何東西，因為我們正在全面跟踪立法，這給我們帶來了任何重大擔憂，並且仍然認為它確實是 - 如果經濟適用房是最終目標，更多的是需要在系統中加入供應驅動的壓力，而不是專注於租金控制，這最終對業主和居民都是不利的。

We will move next with Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo.

接下來我們將與富國銀行的傑米費爾德曼一起移動。

I guess just a follow-up on Tayo's question, I mean, do you, in any way, include any -- any kind of rent control risk in your guidance for your rent outlook?

我想只是對 Tayo 的問題的後續行動，我的意思是，你是否以任何方式在你的租金前景指導中包括任何 - 任何類型的租金控制風險？

We have not.

我們還沒有。

Okay. And then I appreciate all the color on so far in kind of markets. It sounds like things are still going pretty well. But I guess if you focus specifically on like Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, some of these big tech growth markets in recent years and probably market have more layoffs than others. Can you provide any kind of anecdotal evidence of anything changing there, whether it's different types of people backfilling vacancies or move-outs or anything like that, just those kind of markets versus the rest of the portfolio would be helpful?

好的。然後我欣賞到目前為止在各種市場上的所有顏色。聽起來事情仍然進展順利。但我想，如果你特別關注像奧斯汀、納什維爾、羅利這樣的大型科技增長市場，那麼這些市場近年來可能比其他市場裁員更多。您能否提供任何類型的軼事證據證明那裡發生了任何變化，無論是不同類型的人填補空缺或搬遷還是類似的事情，只是那些類型的市場與投資組合的其餘部分相比會有所幫助嗎？

Jamie, this is Tim. I mean I think the ones you point out are right in terms of Austin, Nashville, Raleigh are the ones where we would have more tech exposure than some of the others. But as of now, we haven't seen it. I mean we're keeping an eye on what it exactly means in terms of which staff are going to be impacted by some of the announcements that have already been made, but to date, we haven't seen any impact from that. No trends -- different in those markets other than sort of the broader we talked about Austin with broader supply/demand concerns, but we haven't seen anything yet, but those are the ones we would be keeping an eye on, for sure.

傑米，這是蒂姆。我的意思是，我認為你指出的那些在奧斯汀、納什維爾、羅利方面是正確的，在這些地方我們將比其他一些地方有更多的技術曝光。但截至目前，我們還沒有看到。我的意思是，我們正在密切關注哪些員工將受到一些已經發布的公告的影響，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何影響。沒有趨勢——在這些市場上有所不同，除了我們談論的奧斯汀更廣泛的供應/需求問題之外，我們還沒有看到任何東西，但這些是我們肯定會關注的。

Okay. Are you seeing slower demand from those types of employees, people in those industries?

好的。您是否看到這些類型的員工、這些行業的人的需求放緩？

Not really. I mean a lot of these markets aren't quite the Silicon Valley in terms of the types of employments that we had there. It's a little more, call it, mid-level or if you want to say more -- a little more blue-collar-type tech, but we've not seen it yet, like I said, it's some we're keeping an eye on, and that could be what drives more of the downside risk on our forecast for 2023, but nothing reportable so far.

並不真地。我的意思是，就我們在那裡的就業類型而言，很多這些市場並不完全是矽谷。多一點，稱之為中級，或者如果你想多說一點——多一點藍領型技術，但我們還沒有看到，就像我說的，我們正在保留一些關注，這可能是導致我們對 2023 年的預測出現更多下行風險的原因，但到目前為止沒有任何報告。

We have no further questions. I will return the call to MAA for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我會將電話返回給 MAA 以獲取結束語。

Okay. Well, we appreciate everyone joining us this morning. If you have any other thoughts or questions follow up, just reach out at any point. So thank you for joining us.

好的。好吧，我們感謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果您有任何其他想法或問題跟進，請隨時聯繫我們。感謝您加入我們。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。