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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Lyft Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.
下午好,歡迎參加 Lyft 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)作為提醒,此電話會議正在錄音中。
I would now like to turn the call over to Sonya Banerjee, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.
我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Sonya Banerjee。你可以開始了。
Sonya Banerjee - Head of IR
Sonya Banerjee - Head of IR
Thank you. Welcome to the Lyft earnings call for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. Joining me to discuss Lyft's results and key business initiatives are our Co-Founder and CEO, Logan Green; Co-Founder and President, John Zimmer; and Chief Financial Officer, Elaine Paul. A recording of this conference call will be available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lyft.com, shortly after this call has ended.
謝謝你。歡迎參加截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的季度 Lyft 收益電話會議。與我一起討論 Lyft 業績和關鍵業務計劃的是我們的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Logan Green;聯合創始人兼總裁約翰·齊默;和首席財務官伊萊恩·保羅。本次電話會議結束後不久,將在我們的投資者關係網站investor.lyft.com 上提供本次電話會議的錄音。
I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the call, we will be making forward-looking statements. This includes statements relating to the expected impact of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic; macroeconomic factors; the performance of our business; future financial results and guidance, including the impact of our cost reduction initiatives; strategy; long-term growth and overall future prospects.
我想藉此機會提醒您,在電話會議期間,我們將做出前瞻性陳述。這包括與持續的 COVID-19 大流行的預期影響有關的聲明;宏觀經濟因素;我們的業務表現;未來的財務結果和指導,包括我們降低成本舉措的影響;戰略;長期增長和整體未來前景。
We may also make statements regarding regulatory matters. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied during this call, in particular, those described in our risk factors included in our Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2022 filed on August 5, 2022, and in our Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2022 that will be filed by November 9, 2022, as well as risks related to the current uncertainty in the markets and economy.
我們也可能就監管事項發表聲明。這些陳述受到已知和未知風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議期間預計或暗示的結果存在重大差異,特別是 2022 年第二季度的 10-Q 表中包含的風險因素中描述的那些於 2022 年 8 月 5 日提交,並在我們將於 2022 年 11 月 9 日之前提交的 2022 年第三季度的 10-Q 表中,以及與當前市場和經濟不確定性相關的風險。
You should not rely on our forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. All forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions and beliefs as of the date hereof, and Lyft disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
您不應依賴我們的前瞻性陳述作為對未來事件的預測。我們在本次電話會議上所做的所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至本通知日期的假設和信念,除法律要求外,Lyft 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的任何義務。
Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or in isolation from our GAAP results. Information regarding our non-GAAP financial results, including a reconciliation of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results may be found in our earnings release, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC as well as in our earnings slide deck. These materials may also be found on our Investor Relations website.
我們今天的討論將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則措施應作為我們公認會計原則結果的補充而不是替代或孤立考慮。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務業績的信息,包括我們的歷史 GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的對賬,可以在我們今天向美國證券交易委員會提交的表格 8-K 以及我們的盈利幻燈片中提供。甲板。這些材料也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。
I would now like to turn the conference call over to Lyft's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Logan Green. Logan?
我現在想將電話會議轉交給 Lyft 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Logan Green。洛根?
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Thanks, Sonya, and good afternoon. First, I want to thank all of the team members that we had to say goodbye to last week. I'm grateful for all of their contributions towards building the business and advancing the mission. While difficult, the reduction in force sets us up for a strong 2023 and where we can focus on execution, knowing we are in a strong position in the face of external uncertainty. Thank you again to the entire team for your continued hard work to take care of drivers, riders in our business.
謝謝,索尼婭,下午好。首先,我要感謝上週我們不得不告別的所有團隊成員。我感謝他們為建立業務和推進使命所做的所有貢獻。雖然困難重重,但部隊的減少讓我們為 2023 年的強勁表現做好了準備,我們可以專注於執行,因為我們知道面對外部不確定性我們處於有利地位。再次感謝整個團隊為照顧我們業務中的司機和騎手所做的不懈努力。
I'm going to kick things off by recapping our Q3 results. Then I'm going to focus my comments on the actions we've taken to accelerate key business initiatives and deliver on our 2024 financial targets. With a strong Q3, adjusted EBITDA beat the top end of our outlook. Revenues of $1.054 billion were the highest in our company's history. And active riders, active drivers and total rides all reached the highest level since COVID began, which was great to see.
我將通過回顧我們的第三季度業績來開始。然後,我將把我的評論集中在我們為加速關鍵業務計劃和實現 2024 年財務目標而採取的行動上。憑藉強勁的第三季度,調整後的 EBITDA 超過了我們展望的高端。 10.54 億美元的收入是我們公司歷史上最高的。自 COVID 開始以來,活躍的車手、活躍的司機和總行程都達到了最高水平,這很高興看到。
Demand was strong. Airport trips were 10.4% of rideshare rides in Q3, beating the record set last quarter. And bike and scooter rides reached a new all-time high, reflecting growing demand and warm weather seasonality. Additionally, Lyft business managed bookings grew by more than 50% year-over-year and reached a new high with strong adoption of our B2B offerings, including Lyft Pass and Concierge. And even more drivers are organically choosing Lyft.
需求強勁。第三季度,機場出行佔拼車出行的 10.4%,打破了上一季度創下的紀錄。自行車和踏板車騎行達到歷史新高,反映了需求的增長和溫暖的天氣季節性。此外,隨著 Lyft Pass 和 Concierge 等 B2B 產品的大力採用,Lyft 業務管理的預訂量同比增長超過 50%,並創下新高。甚至更多的司機自然而然地選擇了 Lyft。
In Q3, the number of active drivers using Lyft showed the strongest quarter-over-quarter growth in the year. New drivers grew at an even faster rate, helped by strong organic tailwinds. In fact, more than half of new drivers in Q3 were acquired organically. Our network gives drivers valuable access to supplemental earnings opportunities on demand. We expect to see more people looking for these kinds of opportunities in a recessionary environment.
在第三季度,使用 Lyft 的活躍司機數量顯示出年內最強勁的季度環比增長。在強勁的有機順風的幫助下,新司機的增長速度更快。事實上,第三季度超過一半的新司機是有機收購的。我們的網絡為司機提供了按需獲得額外收入機會的寶貴機會。我們希望看到更多人在經濟衰退的環境中尋找這些機會。
Overall service levels on our network keep getting better. Across the U.S., our average rideshare ETA was faster in Q3 than it was in Q2 '22 and got even closer to where it was before COVID, and our Q3 rideshare conversion rate was the highest that they've been in several years. Additionally, for riders, the average price per mile declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting less prime time.
我們網絡上的整體服務水平不斷提高。在整個美國,我們在第三季度的平均拼車預計到達時間比在 22 年第二季度更快,甚至更接近於 COVID 之前的水平,我們的第三季度拼車轉換率是幾年來最高的。此外,對於乘客來說,每英里的平均價格環比下降,反映出黃金時間的減少。
Drivers were also incredibly productive in Q3. Active drivers gave 17% more rides on average than they did in 2019. An average U.S. driver earnings this quarter were north of $35 per utilized hour, including tips and bonuses, which is up 7% year-over-year.
車手在第三季度的生產力也令人難以置信。與 2019 年相比,活躍司機的平均乘車次數增加了 17%。本季度美國司機的平均收入超過每小時 35 美元,包括小費和獎金,同比增長 7%。
Now I'm going to talk about Q4 and the go forward. In anticipation of continued economic headwinds and rising insurance costs, we've been taking prudent and decisive action. This includes taking a hard look at all of our costs to make sure we're using our resources to accelerate initiatives with the strongest returns.
現在我要談談第四季度和前進。鑑於經濟持續逆風和保險成本上升,我們一直在採取謹慎和果斷的行動。這包括認真審視我們的所有成本,以確保我們正在利用我們的資源來加速計劃並獲得最豐厚的回報。
All in, the cost reduction initiatives we've been implementing since Q2 are expected to result in roughly $350 million of savings on an annualized basis. This reflects the work that we've done across 3 categories: headcount; operating expenses; and real estate.
總而言之,我們自第二季度以來一直在實施的成本削減計劃預計每年將節省大約 3.5 億美元。這反映了我們在 3 個類別中所做的工作:員工人數;營業費用;和房地產。
First, on head count. Earlier this year, we significantly slowed and then froze new hiring. Last week's action reflected a continuation of our commitment to carefully manage our team size and expenses in this environment. One focus was to remove management layers to accelerate decision-making and execution. It was a hard decision, but we're confident that it's the right step for the business.
首先,關於人數。今年早些時候,我們顯著放緩,然後凍結了新的招聘。上週的行動反映了我們在這種環境下謹慎管理團隊規模和開支的承諾的延續。一個重點是去除管理層以加速決策和執行。這是一個艱難的決定,但我們相信這對企業來說是正確的一步。
Second, operating expenses. Starting in Q2, we reduced various operating expenses, inclusive of professional services and limited discretionary spending, particularly related to marketing. Third, our real estate. Since many team members now enjoy working remotely, we are reducing our office footprint and cutting the related real estate costs by approximately half. These actions go hand in hand with the continued prioritization and streamlining of our highest ROI initiatives that will further enable greater operational efficiency and speed.
二是運營費用。從第二季度開始,我們減少了各種運營費用,包括專業服務和有限的可自由支配支出,尤其是與營銷相關的支出。第三,我們的房地產。由於許多團隊成員現在喜歡遠程工作,因此我們正在減少辦公室佔地面積並將相關的房地產成本降低約一半。這些行動與我們的最高投資回報率計劃的持續優先排序和精簡齊頭並進,這將進一步提高運營效率和速度。
We are also using other levers in our marketplace. Given the uptick in insurance costs, we've increased our service fee to help provide this important coverage. With gas prices moderating, we were also able to remove the fuel surcharge that had been in effect since March so the net impact on riders has been roughly neutral. Additionally, we're focused on providing drivers competitive earnings opportunities and fuel rewards.
我們還在我們的市場中使用其他槓桿。鑑於保險成本的上升,我們提高了服務費以幫助提供這一重要的保險。隨著汽油價格放緩,我們還能夠取消自 3 月以來生效的燃油附加費,因此對乘客的淨影響大致為中性。此外,我們專注於為司機提供有競爭力的收入機會和燃料獎勵。
So while we expect an $82 million sequential cost of revenue headwind in Q4 and due to our insurance renewal, we also expect to more than offset the impact to adjusted EBITDA. Keep in mind, our insurance fiscal year began on October 1 reflecting updated risk transfer agreements that are locked in for 12 months. So starting in Q1, the quarter-to-quarter changes in insurance costs will reflect the typical differences in ride mix, volumes and mileage in each period. The bottom line is we expect the actions we are taking will more than offset the entire impact of higher insurance costs in Q4 and over the next 12 months.
因此,雖然我們預計第四季度的收入逆風連續成本為 8200 萬美元,並且由於我們的保險續約,但我們也預計將抵消對調整後 EBITDA 的影響。請記住,我們的保險財年始於 10 月 1 日,反映了鎖定 12 個月的更新風險轉移協議。因此,從第一季度開始,保險成本的季度變化將反映每個時期在乘車組合、數量和里程方面的典型差異。最重要的是,我們預計我們正在採取的行動將抵消第四季度和未來 12 個月保險成本上漲的全部影響。
Coming off a strong Q3, we're continuing to take a prudent approach to managing our business to ensure we're successful over the long term. As I said last quarter and would like to reinforce today, we're confident in our ability to continue navigating near-term headwinds and to deliver strong long-term business results. Time and time again, we've proven our ability to make hard decisions and overcome difficult challenges. This is what we did after we first set our adjusted EBITDA profitability goal back in October of 2019, and we delivered on our target sooner than expected during a global pandemic.
在強勁的第三季度之後,我們將繼續採取審慎的方法來管理我們的業務,以確保我們在長期內取得成功。正如我在上個季度所說並希望在今天強調的那樣,我們有信心繼續駕馭近期逆風並實現強勁的長期業務成果。我們一次又一次地證明了我們做出艱難決定和克服困難挑戰的能力。這是我們在 2019 年 10 月首次設定調整後的 EBITDA 盈利目標後所做的,並且在全球大流行期間我們比預期更快地實現了目標。
The work we've been doing sets us up to accelerate execution and deliver strong business results. We now feel even more confident in our ability to deliver $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and more than $700 million of free cash flow in 2024.
我們一直在做的工作使我們能夠加快執行速度並提供強大的業務成果。我們現在對我們在 2024 年實現 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和超過 7 億美元的自由現金流的能力更有信心。
Let me turn the call over to Elaine to share the details on our financials.
讓我把電話轉給伊萊恩,分享我們的財務細節。
Elaine Paul - CFO
Elaine Paul - CFO
Thank you, Logan, and good afternoon, everybody. In the third quarter, we delivered all-time high revenues of $1.54 billion, up 6% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year. Q3 revenues came in towards the high end of our outlook of $1.04 billion to $1.06 billion. Revenue growth was driven by ride share strength in addition to bikes and scooters with total rides up more than 10% year-over-year.
謝謝你,洛根,大家下午好。第三季度,我們實現了 15.4 億美元的歷史新高收入,環比增長 6%,同比增長 22%。第三季度收入接近我們預期的 10.4 億美元至 10.6 億美元的高端。除自行車和踏板車外,收入增長還受到騎行份額強勁的推動,總騎行量同比增長超過 10%。
Active riders of $20.3 million reached the highest level in more than 2 years, reflecting strong new rider growth. Revenue per active rider reached a new all-time high of $51.88, up 4% quarter-over-quarter and 14% year-over-year. The increase reflects higher revenue per ride associated with longer trips given the sustained pickup in travel through Q3.
2030 萬美元的活躍車手達到了兩年多以來的最高水平,反映出新車手的強勁增長。每個活躍騎手的收入達到 51.88 美元的歷史新高,環比增長 4%,同比增長 14%。鑑於第三季度的旅行持續回升,這一增長反映了與長途旅行相關的每次乘車收入增加。
Before I move on, I want to note that unless otherwise indicated, all income statement measures are non-GAAP and exclude stock-based compensation and other select items as detailed in our earnings release. A reconciliation of historical GAAP to non-GAAP results is available on our Investor Relations website and may be found in our earnings release, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC.
在我繼續之前,我想指出,除非另有說明,否則所有損益表指標都是非公認會計原則,並且不包括我們的收益發布中詳述的基於股票的薪酬和其他精選項目。歷史 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對賬可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,並且可以在我們的收益發布中找到,該發布與我們今天向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格一起提供。
Contribution margin in the third quarter was 56%. This was 100 basis points higher than our guidance of 55% with the outperformance reflecting rideshare strength. Relative to Q2 '22, contribution margin declined by 360 basis points. Normalizing for $15.5 million in discrete accounting items in Q2, contribution margin decreased sequentially by 200 basis points, reflecting a risk transfer renewal in Q3 that has now been shifted to align with our normal Q4 renewal time line.
第三季度的貢獻率為56%。這比我們 55% 的指引高出 100 個基點,表現出色反映了拼車實力。相對於 22 年第二季度,邊際貢獻下降了 360 個基點。將第二季度的離散會計項目正常化為 1550 萬美元,邊際貢獻率連續下降 200 個基點,這反映了第三季度的風險轉移續約,現在已經轉移到與我們正常的第四季度續約時間線保持一致。
As a reminder, contribution excludes changes to the liabilities for insurance required by regulatory agencies attributable to historical periods. In the third quarter, there was adverse development of $93 million. This adverse development is primarily related to claims between October 2018 and September 2021, and is specifically associated with a legacy third-party claims administrator that did not close these claims out as effectively as we would have expected.
提醒一下,供款不包括監管機構要求的可歸因於歷史期間的保險負債變化。在第三季度,有 9300 萬美元的不利發展。這種不利的發展主要與 2018 年 10 月至 2021 年 9 月之間的索賠有關,並且特別與傳統的第三方索賠管理員有關,該管理員沒有像我們預期的那樣有效地關閉這些索賠。
The longer claims take to close, the more expensive they can become, especially when subject to the inflationary pressures that are affecting the broader insurance industry. We are working quickly to resolve the remaining open 10% of claims that were handled by our legacy partner.
理賠所需的時間越長,它們可能變得越昂貴,尤其是在受到影響更廣泛保險業的通貨膨脹壓力的情況下。我們正在迅速解決由我們的傳統合作夥伴處理的剩餘 10% 的未決索賠。
Let me provide a quick update on the insurance structure that's in place for the next 12 months. Just as we did for the previous insurance fiscal year, we've transferred a significant majority of risk to best-in-class third-party partners. So as of October 1, all of our risk transfer agreements have been locked in. Over time, we believe that our risk transfer strategy will limit our exposure to future [adverse].
讓我快速更新一下未來 12 個月的保險結構。正如我們在上一個保險財年所做的那樣,我們已將大部分風險轉移給一流的第三方合作夥伴。因此,截至 10 月 1 日,我們所有的風險轉移協議都已鎖定。隨著時間的推移,我們相信我們的風險轉移策略將限制我們對未來 [不利] 的敞口。
Let's move to non-GAAP operating expenses below cost of revenue in Q3. In the aggregate, these expenses declined as a percentage of revenue by roughly 150 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 270 basis points versus Q3 of '21. Let me start with operations and support. As a percentage of revenue, operations and support was 10.6%, up roughly 60 basis points from Q2, but down 140 basis points from Q3 of '21.
讓我們在第三季度轉向低於收入成本的非 GAAP 運營費用。總體而言,這些費用佔收入的百分比環比下降了大約 150 個基點,與 21 年第三季度相比下降了 270 個基點。讓我從運營和支持開始。佔收入、運營和支持的百分比為 10.6%,比第二季度增長約 60 個基點,但比 21 年第三季度下降 140 個基點。
In absolute terms, this expense was $111.6 million in Q3. The sequential increase is a reflection of bike and scooter seasonality, which typically peaks in Q3. At the same time, relative to Q3 of last year, -- we achieved better leverage on our operations and support expense even as ride volumes grew and we onboarded more drivers.
按絕對值計算,第三季度的這筆費用為 1.116 億美元。連續增長反映了自行車和踏板車的季節性,通常在第三季度達到峰值。同時,相對於去年第三季度,我們在運營和支持費用方面取得了更好的槓桿作用,即使乘車量增長並且我們僱傭了更多司機。
R&D was 10.2% of revenue in Q3, down roughly 40 basis points from Q2 and 240 basis points from Q3 of '21. In absolute terms, R&D expense was $107.7 million in Q3. Year-over-year comparisons reflect the partial impact of the divestiture of Level 5 that closed mid-July of last year. Relative to Q2 '22, R&D increased by $2 million, reflecting incremental investment in rideshare-related infrastructure and support.
研發在第三季度佔收入的 10.2%,比第二季度下降了大約 40 個基點,比 21 年第三季度下降了 240 個基點。按絕對值計算,第三季度的研發費用為 1.077 億美元。同比比較反映了去年 7 月中旬結束的第 5 級資產剝離的部分影響。相對於 22 年第二季度,研發增加了 200 萬美元,反映了對拼車相關基礎設施和支持的增量投資。
Sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue was 11.3% in Q3, and down 170 basis points from Q2 and 20 basis points from Q3 of '21. This is a reflection of organic tailwinds to supply and demand as well as our continued discretionary cost discipline. In absolute terms, sales and marketing expense was $118.7 million. Within sales and marketing incentives were 3% of revenue.
第三季度銷售和營銷佔收入的百分比為 11.3%,比第二季度下降 170 個基點,比 21 年第三季度下降 20 個基點。這反映了供需的有機順風以及我們持續的可自由支配成本紀律。按絕對值計算,銷售和營銷費用為 1.187 億美元。銷售和營銷獎勵佔收入的 3%。
G&A expense as a percentage of revenue was 20.6% in Q3, flat with Q2 and up 130 basis points from Q3 of '21. In absolute terms, G&A expense was $216.9 million. Normalizing for $12 million of discrete accounting items in Q2 '22, G&A increased by roughly $1.2 million quarter-over-quarter.
第三季度 G&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 20.6%,與第二季度持平,比 21 年第三季度增長 130 個基點。按絕對值計算,G&A 費用為 2.169 億美元。在 22 年第二季度將 1200 萬美元的離散會計項目標準化後,G&A 環比增長了約 120 萬美元。
In terms of the bottom line, our Q3 adjusted EBITDA profit of $66 million came in above the high end of our outlook of $55 million to $65 million. Adjusting for $29 million in discrete accounting items in Q2, for every $1 of sequential revenue growth in Q3, roughly $0.26 flowed to adjusted EBITDA.
就利潤而言,我們第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤為 6600 萬美元,高於我們預期的 5500 萬美元至 6500 萬美元的高端。調整第二季度 2900 萬美元的離散會計項目,第三季度每 1 美元的連續收入增長,大約 0.26 美元流入調整後的 EBITDA。
We ended Q3 '22 with unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.8 billion. And today, we announced we've entered into a revolving credit facility for $420 million that will provide us with additional available liquidity.
我們以 18 億美元的無限制現金、現金等價物和短期投資結束了 22 年第三季度。今天,我們宣布我們已經簽訂了一項價值 4.2 億美元的循環信貸安排,這將為我們提供額外的可用流動性。
Now I'd like to address the difficult but responsible step we took last week to reduce our workforce. As we disclosed in the 8-K filed on November 3, we expect to incur a charge of between $27 million and $32 million related to this restructuring, which we expect will be incurred in Q4.
現在我想談談我們上週為減少勞動力而採取的艱難但負責任的步驟。正如我們在 11 月 3 日提交的 8-K 中披露的那樣,我們預計與此次重組相關的費用將在 2700 萬美元至 3200 萬美元之間,我們預計將在第四季度產生。
In addition to this amount, we expect to record a stock-based compensation charge and corresponding payroll tax expense related to affected team members as well as restructuring charges related to a decision to exit and sublease or ceased use of certain facilities. However, we're unable to estimate these charges at this time because they depend, in part, on our future stock price. We will exclude these restructuring charges in our calculation of non-GAAP metrics.
除此金額外,我們預計將記錄與受影響團隊成員相關的基於股票的補償費用和相應的工資稅費用,以及與退出和轉租或停止使用某些設施的決定相關的重組費用。但是,我們目前無法估計這些費用,因為它們部分取決於我們未來的股價。我們將在計算非公認會計原則指標時排除這些重組費用。
Before I move to our outlook, it's important to note that macroeconomic factors are impossible to predict with any certainty. Future conditions can change rapidly and affect our results. Now let me share our Q4 outlook. We expect revenues of between $1.145 billion and $1.165 billion, up 9% to 11% quarter-over-quarter and 18% to 20% versus Q4 of last year.
在我開始展望我們的前景之前,重要的是要注意宏觀經濟因素不可能有任何確定性的預測。未來的情況可能會迅速變化並影響我們的結果。現在讓我分享我們的第四季度展望。我們預計收入在 11.45 億美元至 11.65 億美元之間,環比增長 9% 至 11%,與去年第四季度相比增長 18% 至 20%。
To be clear, even at the low end of the range, our guidance implies a new all-time high for our business. Our Q4 revenue guidance assumes sequential rideshare ride growth consistent with the seasonality we saw in Q4 last year, which is stronger than what we saw in Q4 of 2019.
需要明確的是,即使在該範圍的低端,我們的指導也意味著我們的業務創下歷史新高。我們的第四季度收入指引假設拼車乘車的連續增長與我們去年第四季度看到的季節性一致,這比我們在 2019 年第四季度看到的要強。
Let me share an update on what we've seen so far in Q4. For the month of October, our total company bookings are on track to reach an all-time high. Rideshare rides grew roughly 6% month-over-month versus September, which is consistent with the seasonality we've seen over the past 2 years and is stronger than what we saw in 2019. Keep in mind, while October ride trends were robust, it's typically the strongest month in the fourth quarter. November and December ride share trends are generally dampened with people spending more time at home around the holidays.
讓我分享一下我們迄今為止在第四季度看到的最新情況。 10 月份,我們公司的總預訂量有望達到歷史最高水平。與 9 月相比,拼車出行環比增長約 6%,這與我們在過去 2 年看到的季節性一致,並且比我們在 2019 年看到的要強。請記住,雖然 10 月的出行趨勢強勁,這通常是第四季度最強勁的月份。 11 月和 12 月的乘車份額趨勢普遍受到抑制,因為人們在假期期間在家中花費更多時間。
We also expect softening bike and scooter seasonality in the winter. This will impact active riders in Q4 since this metric captures bike and scooter riders in addition to rideshare. In terms of profitability, we expect Q4 contribution margin to be approximately 51.5%. This is a decline of 450 basis points from Q3, reflecting the impact of roughly $82 million or roughly 700 basis points from our insurance renewals. However, we expect this headwind will be partly offset by higher revenue per ride inclusive of the service fee change.
我們還預計冬季自行車和踏板車的季節性會減弱。這將影響第四季度的活躍騎手,因為除了拼車之外,該指標還包括自行車和踏板車騎手。在盈利能力方面,我們預計第四季度的貢獻率約為 51.5%。這比第三季度下降了 450 個基點,反映了我們保險續約帶來的大約 8200 萬美元或大約 700 個基點的影響。然而,我們預計這種不利因素將被包括服務費變化在內的每次乘車收入增加所部分抵消。
As a percentage of revenue, we expect operating expenses below cost of revenue will be roughly 46% to 47%. This would represent a sequential improvement of roughly 600 to 700 basis points with the majority reflected in G&A and operations and support. Within operations and support, there are savings associated with bike and scooter seasonality between Q3 and Q4.
作為收入的百分比,我們預計低於收入成本的運營費用將約為 46% 至 47%。這將代表大約 600 到 700 個基點的連續改善,其中大部分反映在 G&A 以及運營和支持中。在運營和支持方面,第三季度和第四季度之間的自行車和踏板車季節性相關的節省。
In terms of adjusted EBITDA, we expect to deliver $80 million to $100 million in Q4, which would be an all-time high for our business. Guidance implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7% to 9%. To put a finer point on it, while we expect contribution margin will decline quarter-over-quarter, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin will increase sequentially by roughly 1 to 2 percentage points. Given our Q4 outlook, we expect calendar year 2022 revenue of $4.65 billion to $4.85 billion, up roughly 27% versus 2021. We expect full year 2022 contribution margin of approximately 56%.
就調整後的 EBITDA 而言,我們預計第四季度將交付 8000 萬至 1 億美元,這將是我們業務的歷史新高。指導意味著調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 7% 至 9%。更確切地說,雖然我們預計貢獻率將環比下降,但我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將環比增長約 1 至 2 個百分點。鑑於我們對第四季度的展望,我們預計 2022 年日曆年收入為 46.5 億美元至 48.5 億美元,比 2021 年增長約 27%。我們預計 2022 年全年貢獻率約為 56%。
Finally, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $300 million for the full year with a margin of 7%. This would be triple the level of adjusted EBITDA achieved last year with more than twice the margin. We are laser-focused on delivering on our 2024 financial targets.
最後,我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.8 億美元至 3 億美元,利潤率為 7%。這將是去年調整後 EBITDA 水平的三倍,利潤率是去年的兩倍多。我們專注於實現 2024 年的財務目標。
Between the momentum we are seeing in our business, our product and marketplace work, and our cost management, we are even more confident in our ability to deliver $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA with over $700 million of free cash flow, which is defined as operating cash flow less CapEx. We continue to see multiple paths to achieving these milestones driven by industry bookings growth, marketplace efficiency work and cost discipline.
在我們在業務、產品和市場工作以及成本管理方面看到的勢頭之間,我們更有信心實現 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和超過 7 億美元的自由現金流,這被定義為運營現金流減去資本支出。在行業預訂增長、市場效率工作和成本紀律的推動下,我們繼續看到實現這些里程碑的多種途徑。
With that, let me turn it over to John.
有了這個,讓我把它交給約翰。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Thanks, Elaine. We're continuing to accelerate the work that will have the biggest impact for drivers, riders and our company. Let me start with how we are increasing the efficiency of our overall marketplace using 3 specific examples on Maps, drivers and riders. First, Lyft Maps. Approximately 25% of our rideshare rides are now powered entirely by Lyft's in-house mapping and navigation. And on average, each ride that leverages our mapping technology can produce more than $0.10 of incremental value for Lyft, and there's more ahead.
謝謝,伊萊恩。我們將繼續加快對司機、乘客和我們公司產生最大影響的工作。讓我從我們如何使用地圖、司機和騎手上的 3 個具體示例來提高整個市場的效率開始。首先,Lyft 地圖。現在,我們大約 25% 的拼車服務完全由 Lyft 的內部地圖和導航提供支持。平均而言,利用我們的地圖技術的每次騎行可以為 Lyft 帶來超過 0.10 美元的增量價值,而且未來還會更多。
We are leveraging Lyft Maps to optimize our routing. This can save drivers and riders time and add to our marketplace efficiency. This is helping us solve last mile problems that rideshare drivers encountered daily. For example, when ride requests lead to closed apartment complexes, we can route drivers to public entry points, solving a pain point that couldn't be addressed with traditional mapping tech. And in markets like Dallas and Atlanta, up to 20% of weekly pickups and drop-offs can occur under these circumstances. So this routing improvement can have a meaningful impact.
我們正在利用 Lyft Maps 來優化我們的路線。這可以節省司機和乘客的時間並提高我們的市場效率。這有助於我們解決拼車司機每天遇到的最後一英里問題。例如,當乘車請求導致封閉的公寓大樓時,我們可以將司機引導到公共入口點,解決傳統地圖技術無法解決的痛點。在達拉斯和亞特蘭大等市場,每周有多達 20% 的接送服務可能發生在這種情況下。因此,這種路由改進可以產生有意義的影響。
We've also integrated Lyft Maps with Android Auto and CarPlay. This integration is one of the most requested over the past few years and can make driving safer by reducing dashboard clutter and result in a better overall driving experience. Since launching in September, drivers have given nearly 1 million rides leveraging this integration. We're excited to be the first rideshare company to bring this to market and expect it to continue scaling in the months ahead.
我們還將 Lyft 地圖與 Android Auto 和 CarPlay 集成。這種集成是過去幾年中最需要的集成之一,它可以通過減少儀表板的混亂來提高駕駛安全性,並帶來更好的整體駕駛體驗。自 9 月推出以來,司機已經利用這種集成提供了近 100 萬次乘車服務。我們很高興成為第一家將其推向市場的拼車公司,並期望它在未來幾個月內繼續擴大規模。
Next, we are accelerating initiatives that can increase driver preference. Upfront pay is a great example. In the markets where upfront pay has been available, we've seen drivers spend more time using our network and an uptick in drivers' preference for Lyft. As of last week, upfront information is available on more than 70% of rideshare rides on our network, and we are accelerating the rollout with a goal of covering all rides by the end of the year. Driver innovations can increase organic driver acquisition and loyalty and greatly improved marketplace balance.
接下來,我們正在加快推進可以提高駕駛員偏好的舉措。預付費用就是一個很好的例子。在提供預付費用的市場中,我們看到司機會花更多時間使用我們的網絡,而且司機對 Lyft 的偏好也在增加。截至上週,我們網絡上超過 70% 的拼車服務都提供了前期信息,我們正在加快推廣速度,目標是在年底前覆蓋所有乘車服務。駕駛員創新可以增加駕駛員的有機獲取和忠誠度,並大大改善市場平衡。
Finally, for riders, we are continuing to ensure we provide a full range of price points and ride experiences. Wait & Save is one example on the affordable side of the spectrum that delivers great value to consumers as well as to our broader marketplace management. This mode gives us more time to balance supply with demand and can increase driver utilization. It also serves as a strong acquisition funnel for new riders. In the past 6 months, nearly 20% of Wait & Save riders were new to Lyft.
最後,對於騎手,我們將繼續確保我們提供全方位的價格點和乘坐體驗。 Wait & Save 是價格實惠的一個例子,它為消費者以及我們更廣泛的市場管理提供了巨大的價值。這種模式讓我們有更多的時間來平衡供需,並可以提高司機的利用率。它還可以作為新騎手的強大收購渠道。在過去 6 個月中,近 20% 的 Wait & Save 乘客是 Lyft 的新用戶。
Priority Pickup is another example, one that provides a premium experience. With Priority Pickup, riders have the option to pay a little more for a faster pickup. This can result in a higher margin to Lyft. The work we are doing to improve the rider experience helps us reinforce rider loyalty, increase ride frequency and have better tools for both revenue management and marketplace management. Finally, Lyft continues to be extremely well positioned in consumer transportation and is set up to take on more and more consumer spend.
優先取貨是另一個例子,它提供了優質的體驗。通過優先取件,乘客可以選擇支付更多費用以獲得更快的取件。這可能會給 Lyft 帶來更高的利潤。我們為改善騎手體驗所做的工作有助於我們加強騎手忠誠度、增加乘車頻率並為收入管理和市場管理提供更好的工具。最後,Lyft 在消費者交通領域繼續處於非常有利的地位,並準備承擔越來越多的消費者支出。
There are 3 big drivers fueling long-term growth: demographics; infrastructure changes; and new products. Let me start with demographics. As we've shared in the past, every year, roughly 4 million people in the U.S. become old enough to use ridesharing on their own. Younger members of the population have a digital-first preference and value the convenience and flexibility of on-demand services.
推動長期增長的三大驅動因素:人口統計;基礎設施變化;和新產品。讓我從人口統計開始。正如我們過去分享的那樣,美國每年大約有 400 萬人長大到可以自己使用拼車服務。人口中的年輕人有數字優先的偏好,並重視按需服務的便利性和靈活性。
Second, infrastructure changes. These happen over a longer time frame and continue to provide important tailwinds. Consider the airport use case. It took time for airports to get comfortable with ridesharing. And now many airports allocate designated curb space and queuing lots, plus rideshare serves as an important source of airport funding. This is just one example of how infrastructure changes over time, help reinforce rideshare in people's lives.
二是基礎設施變化。這些發生在更長的時間範圍內,並繼續提供重要的順風。考慮機場用例。機場需要時間來適應拼車。現在許多機場分配了指定的路邊空間和排隊等候區,而且拼車是機場資金的重要來源。這只是基礎設施如何隨時間變化的一個例子,有助於加強人們生活中的拼車。
And finally, new products. Lyft launched 10 years ago with 1 rideshare option. Today, we offer a range of ride modes and price points, including Wait & Save and Priority Pickup. We've also integrated new categories like bikes and consumer rentals that reinforce our core with additional touch points. In fact, this year, more than 2 million people used Lyft for the first time because of our bike and scooter systems.
最後,新產品。 Lyft 於 10 年前推出,提供 1 個拼車選項。今天,我們提供一系列乘車模式和價格點,包括等待和節省和優先取車。我們還整合了自行車和消費者租賃等新類別,通過額外的接觸點加強了我們的核心。事實上,由於我們的自行車和踏板車系統,今年有超過 200 萬人首次使用 Lyft。
With continued product innovation, we expect to capture a larger portion of consumers' transportation wallets in the months and years ahead. I'm very grateful to the team and Lyft community and excited about the road ahead of us.
隨著持續的產品創新,我們預計在未來幾個月和幾年內將佔據消費者交通錢包的更大份額。我非常感謝團隊和 Lyft 社區,並對我們面前的道路感到興奮。
Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
接線員,我們現在可以回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
I have 2. First, just on insurance costs. I think you said $82 million in 4Q. Can you just walk through the offsets here on both the top and bottom line? I just want to make sure that we got those clearly.
我有 2。首先,只是保險費用。我想你說第四季度是 8200 萬美元。你能在頂線和底線都穿過這裡的偏移量嗎?我只是想確保我們清楚地了解這些。
And then also the impact to riders, you said is neutral, but I wanted to get a sense of what drivers are saying with the changes in the surcharges? And then perhaps if you could also just roll out the -- talk about the multiple paths to 24% EBITDA and free cash flow, that would be helpful.
還有對乘客的影響,你說是中性的,但我想了解司機對附加費變化的看法?然後也許如果你也可以推出——談論實現 24% EBITDA 和自由現金流的多種途徑,那會很有幫助。
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Yes, we got that. Sure. So Elaine is going to take about the first one on insurance and then we'll go to the other 2.
是的,我們明白了。當然。所以 Elaine 將討論第一個關於保險的問題,然後我們將討論另外兩個。
Elaine Paul - CFO
Elaine Paul - CFO
Sure. On insurance, in Q4, we expect an $82 million increase in cost of revenue versus Q3 that's reflective of our Q4 insurance headwind. And then in terms of the puts and takes, given our guidance, revenue is about $100 million quarter-on-quarter. That offset -- that more than offsets the $82 million headwind in insurance driving an increase in absolute contribution margin quarter-over-quarter.
當然。在保險方面,我們預計第四季度的收入成本將比第三季度增加 8200 萬美元,這反映了我們第四季度的保險逆風。然後在看跌期權方面,根據我們的指導,收入環比約為 1 億美元。這一抵消——這足以抵消保險業帶來的 8200 萬美元的逆風,推動絕對邊際貢獻率環比增長。
Then below cost of revenue, our OpEx in total will decline by roughly $20 million in Q4 versus Q3. That's reflective of a partial quarter impact of our reduction in force and other changes we're making to OpEx. And taken all together, that's what's driving our projections in EBITDA increase from $66 million in Q3 to our guide of $80 million to $100 million in Q4.
然後低於收入成本,第四季度與第三季度相比,我們的運營支出總額將下降約 2000 萬美元。這反映了我們減少力量和我們對運營支出所做的其他改變的部分季度影響。總而言之,這就是推動我們對 EBITDA 的預測從第三季度的 6600 萬美元增加到第四季度的 8000 萬美元到 1 億美元的指導。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Did that answer your question on insurance prices? I'll talk about the driver side.
這是否回答了您關於保險價格的問題?我會談談司機方面的。
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Yes, that's helpful.
是的,這很有幫助。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Okay. Great. Yes. So on the driver side, we're doing a couple of things. Number one is we're investing in the Lyft Rewards program. So we increased the cash back on gas reward that comes along with the Lyft debit card that has now bumped up to 7% cash back, which is a pretty meaningful benefit. We additionally have had for the last year or so, a partnership with a company called Upside that gives all drivers access to additional cash back on gas, and we bumped that up with higher rewards for our gold and platinum drivers.
好的。偉大的。是的。所以在司機方面,我們正在做一些事情。第一是我們正在投資 Lyft Rewards 計劃。因此,我們增加了與 Lyft 借記卡一起提供的汽油獎勵現金返還,現在已經提高了 7% 的現金返還,這是一個非常有意義的好處。在過去一年左右的時間裡,我們還與一家名為 Upside 的公司建立了合作夥伴關係,讓所有司機都能獲得額外的汽油返還現金,我們為黃金和鉑金司機提供了更高的獎勵。
The bottom line is that since we have eliminated the fuel surcharge at the start of the quarter, we have not seen any impact on driver supply. And in October, active driver growth accelerated month-over-month versus September. Overall, additionally, the driver churn levels are meaningfully below our 2019 levels. So broadly, we feel like we're in a great position with drivers. And then your last question was on the 2024 targets. Is that right?
最重要的是,由於我們在本季度初取消了燃油附加費,因此我們沒有看到對司機供應的任何影響。而在 10 月份,與 9 月份相比,主動驅動因素的增長環比加速。總體而言,此外,司機流失率明顯低於我們 2019 年的水平。從廣義上講,我們覺得我們在司機方面處於有利地位。然後你的最後一個問題是關於 2024 年的目標。那正確嗎?
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Yes. The multiple paths exactly.
是的。確切地說是多條路徑。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Yes. So feeling more and more confident in our ability to hit that $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA with $700 million in free cash flow. And we believe we can achieve this regardless of the macro environment. We've been using internally 2 main cases. One is the growth case, which assumes market bookings grow in the low to mid-20% year-over-year and that the labor market stays as tight as it currently is.
是的。因此,我們越來越相信我們有能力以 7 億美元的自由現金流達到 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們相信,無論宏觀環境如何,我們都能實現這一目標。我們一直在內部使用 2 個主要案例。一個是增長案例,它假設市場預訂量同比增長 20% 到 20%,並且勞動力市場保持與目前一樣緊張。
And then internally, what we call a recession case where the market growth slows, and we see operating leverage through lower driver engagement and acquisition costs if unemployment rises. So in both cases, we have a very confident path to the $1 billion. And in both cases, we'll continue to focus our R&D spend on marketplace innovation that helps improve the cost basis of the business.
然後在內部,我們稱之為市場增長放緩的衰退案例,如果失業率上升,我們會通過降低司機參與度和購置成本看到運營槓桿。因此,在這兩種情況下,我們都有通往 10 億美元的非常有信心的道路。在這兩種情況下,我們將繼續將研發支出集中在有助於改善業務成本基礎的市場創新上。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Stephen Ju with Crédit Suisse.
您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Stephen Ju。
Stephen D. Ju - Director
Stephen D. Ju - Director
Okay. So I don't want to sit here and dwell too much on the reduction in force but can you talk about some of the projects that you may have had to sunset or deprioritize from a product development perspective, given the cost containment measures you talked about earlier?
好的。因此,我不想坐在這裡過多地討論減少兵力,但考慮到您談到的成本控制措施,您能否談談從產品開發的角度來看,您可能不得不取消或取消優先級的一些項目早點?
And secondarily, revisiting the insurance costs, it seems like there's, kind of, bunch of irons in the fire between making greater use of telemetry data and changing driver behavior, et cetera, which were all supposed to help lower costs longer term. So should we be thinking about potential benefits over the longer term from these initiatives? Or are they basically sidelined for the time being?
其次,重新審視保險成本,似乎在更多地使用遙測數據和改變駕駛員行為等之間存在著某種矛盾,這些都應該有助於長期降低成本。那麼,我們是否應該考慮這些舉措的長期潛在利益?還是他們暫時基本靠邊站了?
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Okay. Great. Yes. So first, just to talk a bit about the reduction in force. We wanted to be equally prepared for any scenario that we encountered in '23, whether it's the growth scenario or the recession scenario. And to try to put kind of the scale of the reduction in force in context, we had started to invest in headcount growth in late 2021 and the first half of 2022 before we slowed and then froze hiring, preparing for a larger kind of faster post-COVID recovery. The reduction in force effectively takes us back to the same team size that we were at in Q3 of last year.
好的。偉大的。是的。所以首先,只是談談力量的減少。我們希望為我們在 23 年遇到的任何情況做好同樣的準備,無論是增長情景還是衰退情景。為了嘗試將裁員的規模放在上下文中,我們在 2021 年末和 2022 年上半年開始投資於員工人數增長,然後我們放緩招聘,然後凍結招聘,為更大更快的職位做準備-COVID 恢復。兵力的減少實際上使我們回到了去年第三季度的團隊規模。
And broadly speaking, we always -- I believe having a lean team is always important. And we try to focus these cuts on cuts that would help us increase our velocity. So one of the areas that we focused on was we're doing -- reducing layers of management, increasing spend and control, helping the organization operate faster.
從廣義上講,我們總是——我相信擁有一支精幹的團隊總是很重要的。我們試圖將這些削減集中在有助於我們提高速度的削減上。因此,我們關注的領域之一是我們正在做的事情——減少管理層次,增加支出和控制,幫助組織更快地運作。
One of the particular areas that we've been spending a lot of energy on additionally is how we support our drivers. So today, we have both virtual online support through SMS channels and phone support. Part of the reduction in force was focused on closing the majority of our in-person support centers. And we had seen through testing over the last 6 months or so that by offering premium driver support through our virtual channels, we're able to produce a great experience for drivers at a lower cost point, and we felt like it was important for us to double down on that and focus on the virtual support experience.
另外,我們一直在投入大量精力的特定領域之一是我們如何支持我們的車手。所以今天,我們通過短信渠道和電話支持同時獲得虛擬在線支持。部分減少兵力的重點是關閉我們大部分的面對面支持中心。我們在過去 6 個月左右的測試中看到,通過我們的虛擬渠道提供優質的駕駛員支持,我們能夠以更低的成本為駕駛員提供出色的體驗,我們覺得這對我們很重要加倍努力並專注於虛擬支持體驗。
Beyond that, we're -- there are a long list of kind of smaller areas where we're -- that are either slightly unprofitable or just lower ROI areas of investment or shifting resources. And the last piece to note is that we are putting the vehicle service business up for sale, running a sale process.
除此之外,我們還有一長串較小的領域,它們要么略微無利可圖,要么只是投資回報率較低或資源轉移的領域。最後要注意的是,我們正在出售車輛服務業務,運行銷售流程。
And that logic is very similar to the change we made around Lyft Rentals where we're still dedicated to providing the rental and the vehicle service experience. But both those first-party businesses have real kind of significant scale thresholds that need to be achieved for that business to work well. And it wasn't going to be the highest ROI investment for us to make so we decided to exit those businesses. We will be doubling down on our strength which is building a third party -- a marketplace of third-party partners so that we're still able to provide our drivers and our customers with great vehicle service capability through partners.
這種邏輯與我們圍繞 Lyft Rentals 所做的改變非常相似,我們仍然致力於提供租賃和車輛服務體驗。但是,這兩個第一方業務都有真正的顯著規模門檻,需要達到這些門檻才能讓該業務運作良好。對我們來說,這不會是最高的投資回報率,所以我們決定退出這些業務。我們將加倍加強我們的實力,即建立第三方——第三方合作夥伴的市場,以便我們仍然能夠通過合作夥伴為我們的司機和客戶提供出色的車輛服務能力。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
I'll take the insurance question and just starting at a higher level than going into you asked about product work like telemetry. But at a high level, first, the inflationary pressures and rising current -- insurance costs that we see are an industry issue and are primarily driven by rising premiums as a result of higher cost of used vehicles, vehicle repair, higher medical costs and increased litigation costs. You see this across the board in both personal and commercial auto.
我將回答保險問題,並從比您詢問遙測等產品工作更高的層次開始。但在高水平上,首先,通脹壓力和不斷上升的電流——我們看到的保險成本是一個行業問題,主要是由於二手車成本上升、車輛維修、醫療成本上升和增加的保費上漲導致的。訴訟費用。您可以在個人和商用汽車中全面看到這一點。
And so -- we've fully offset, as we said previously on this call, our insurance cost pressures that we had in Q3 and Q4 and are now locked in for the next 12 months. We do believe that there's likely a timing difference in our renewals and our competition where ours is centered on October and the competition is likely early next year.
因此,正如我們之前在本次電話會議上所說,我們已經完全抵消了我們在第三季度和第四季度所面臨的保險成本壓力,現在已經鎖定了未來 12 個月。我們確實相信我們的續約和我們的比賽可能存在時間差異,我們的比賽集中在 10 月,比賽可能會在明年初進行。
So we feel proud of the hard work the team did in Q3 and Q4 to offset that big increase in cost. And we do believe that the product work we've been working on around mapping in telemetry also, as you noted, has further upside, not just in reducing costs, but more importantly, in reducing the frequency and severity of accidents that leads to additional cost.
因此,我們為團隊在第三季度和第四季度為抵消成本大幅增加所做的辛勤工作而感到自豪。而且我們確實相信,正如您所指出的,我們一直在圍繞遙測地圖進行的產品工作還有進一步的好處,不僅可以降低成本,更重要的是,可以降低導致額外事故的頻率和嚴重性。成本。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.
您的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。
Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research
Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research
You talked about sort of these 2 headwinds or issues going into the December quarter insurance cost and macro. The October trends that you talked about sounded reasonably healthy. So are there -- and I certainly understand that we're all concerned about macro showing up. But is there anything you've actually seen in your or in either the rider volume, length of trips, I don't know, frequency of usage, something in there that has you somewhat concerned about the fourth quarter since you called out macro, but I don't hear it in the October numbers.
您談到了進入 12 月季度保險成本和宏觀的這兩個不利因素或問題。你談到的 10 月份趨勢聽起來相當健康。那裡也有——我當然明白我們都擔心宏的出現。但是,您是否在騎手數量、行程長度(我不知道)、使用頻率中實際看到了什麼,自從您調用宏指令以來,您對第四季度有些擔心,但我在 10 月份的數字中沒有聽到。
And then just talk about shared rides I know that's been kind of a late cycle recovery for ridesharing as a whole and for Lyft, and I know it's important to your business. Can you just talk about where that is in terms of recovering back to kind of full 2019 levels? I know it's going to take a while, but just where are we in the path?
然後只是談談共享遊樂設施,我知道這對於整個拼車和 Lyft 來說是一種後期週期的恢復,我知道這對您的業務很重要。您能否談談恢復到 2019 年的完整水平?我知道這需要一段時間,但我們在哪裡?
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Yes, absolutely. No, we are not seeing any concerning trends, sort of macro trends in terms of growth in Q4. We are trying to -- I'm reading all the same things I'm sure you are. We know that we can't sort of predict exactly how '23 is going to shape up, and we want to put ourselves in a position of maximum flexibility so that we can handle at any scenario and have the flexibility and agility to lean into that. But no, we are seeing strength in the business in Q4.
是的,一點沒錯。不,我們沒有看到任何令人擔憂的趨勢,即第四季度增長方面的宏觀趨勢。我們正在努力——我正在閱讀所有相同的東西,我相信你是。我們知道,我們無法準確預測 23 年將如何發展,我們希望將自己置於最大靈活性的位置,以便我們能夠應對任何情況,並具有靈活和敏捷的傾向。 .但不,我們在第四季度看到了業務的實力。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
And then on shared rides, still a small percentage of total rideshare volume, but starting to look at the right markets to bring it back to -- or additional markets like New York City, we just relaunched shared rides in New York City. This is a market where shared works really well because it's very dense. The other perspective I'd give is that we're starting to see our affordable ride options as more of a portfolio.
然後在共享遊樂設施方面,仍然只佔總拼車量的一小部分,但開始尋找合適的市場將其帶回 - 或紐約市等其他市場,我們剛剛在紐約市重新推出了共享遊樂設施。這是一個共享工作非常好的市場,因為它非常密集。我要給出的另一個觀點是,我們開始將我們負擔得起的乘車選擇視為更多的投資組合。
And so when we first had shared rides, we didn't have Wait & Save. Wait & Save has become very popular among our riders as an option to wait an extra 5 to 10 minutes and save a few dollars. And again, that has become very popular.
因此,當我們第一次共享遊樂設施時,我們沒有 Wait & Save 功能。 Wait & Save 在我們的騎手中非常受歡迎,作為一種額外等待 5 到 10 分鐘並節省幾美元的選項。再一次,這已經變得非常流行。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies.
您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
This is [John] on for Brent Thill. Two questions. I guess if you could maybe give some color on how the use cases are trending. You gave the airport case, but wondering how the other use cases are trending in terms of commuting nights as well as business.
這是布倫特希爾的[約翰]。兩個問題。我想您是否可以就用例的趨勢給出一些顏色。您給出了機場案例,但想知道其他用例在通勤之夜和業務方面的趨勢如何。
And then I don't know if you have any sense in terms of market share change, maybe especially on the West Coast as well as ride price trends on average?
然後我不知道您是否對市場份額變化有任何了解,尤其是在西海岸以及平均乘車價格趨勢?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
So can you repeat the second part of your question?
那麼你能重複你問題的第二部分嗎?
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Yes. I wanted to see if you have any sense for the market share, any total changes versus your main competitor? And maybe even related to that in terms of how the West Coast is recovering?
是的。我想看看你是否對市場份額有任何了解,與你的主要競爭對手相比有什麼總體變化嗎?甚至可能與西海岸的複蘇方式有關?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Yes. So on use cases, as we mentioned, airport rides being -- they're all-time high, about 10.4% of rides. Commute we seem pretty static, I think, around the 30% mark. And then I think there's still more upside and opportunity and where we're seeing some of the growth in the kind of more nights and weekends use cases people come -- continue to come back out. That's on the use case.
是的。因此,正如我們所提到的,在用例中,機場遊樂設施——它們是歷史最高水平,約佔遊樂設施的 10.4%。通勤我們似乎相當穩定,我認為,在 30% 左右。然後我認為還有更多的上行空間和機會,我們看到人們來的更多夜晚和周末用例的一些增長 - 繼續回來。那是在用例上。
On the West Coast, still more runway ahead. It is improving. Q3 rideshare volumes in our top U.S. markets were 75% recovered versus Q4 '19. And within that, the top 10 West Coast markets, we're just 65% recovered. So feeling good that we have more room on the West Coast where we've historically over-indexed. Logan, do you want to talk about market share?
在西海岸,前方還有更多的跑道。它正在改善。與 19 年第四季度相比,我們在美國主要市場的第三季度拼車交易量恢復了 75%。其中,西海岸前 10 大市場僅恢復了 65%。感覺很好,我們在歷史上被過度索引的西海岸有更多的空間。洛根,你想談談市場份額嗎?
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Yes. So broadly on market share, third-party data that we track shows a 1% drop in market share quarter-to-quarter. Based on our internal assessment, it was primarily driven by additional driver incentives that the competition temporarily put into market, along with their rollout of upfront pay. So those incentives no longer appear to be in the market.
是的。就市場份額而言,我們跟踪的第三方數據顯示市場份額環比下降 1%。根據我們的內部評估,這主要是由競爭對手暫時投放市場的額外司機激勵措施以及他們推出的預付費用推動的。因此,這些激勵措施似乎不再存在於市場上。
And over the last couple of weeks since those incentives have dried up, we've seen market share increase in a meaningful way. So we think there's always opportunities to take share, but we are focused on durable growth and driving the bottom line.
在這些激勵措施枯竭後的過去幾周里,我們看到市場份額以有意義的方式增加。所以我們認為總有機會分享,但我們專注於持久增長和推動利潤。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Steven Fox with Fox Advisors.
您的下一個問題來自 Fox Advisors 的 Steven Fox。
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
I was just curious, you went through a detail on some of the marketplace improvements you're making right now. How do we think about those factoring into getting to $1 billion? And how does it maybe help the contribution margins or the conversion margins over the longer term?
我只是好奇,您詳細介紹了您現在正在進行的一些市場改進。我們如何看待那些影響到 10 億美元的因素?從長遠來看,它如何幫助貢獻邊際或轉換邊際?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
So on the high-level marketplace work, something we've talked about in the past and has continued to be a big focus for the R&D dollars we're spending is the use of the driver engagement spend. So for example, you could put -- one important thing to note is people often don't think about the fact that there is a variable pay component to what a driver makes as well as kind of the base. There's always going to be variable pay but you could either time it a week in advance or a day in advance or just in time. And our machine learning that we're doing is getting more and more accurate and the tools and incentives that we have to break up things like nights and weekends at the time when there is the most demand are getting more targeted.
因此,在高層次的市場工作中,我們過去曾談到並繼續成為我們花費的研發資金的重點是使用駕駛員參與度支出。因此,例如,您可以提出 - 需要注意的一件重要事情是人們通常不會考慮這樣一個事實,即司機的收入和基礎類型存在可變薪酬組成部分。總是會有可變薪酬,但你可以提前一周或提前一天或及時。我們正在做的機器學習變得越來越準確,在需求最大的時候,我們必須打破諸如晚上和周末之類的事情的工具和激勵措施也變得更有針對性。
And so there's quite a bit of efficiency in driving the supply when you need it. versus paying for it when it's less needed. I'd say that's like the biggest opportunity on the marketplace side to improve the bottom line.
因此,在您需要時推動供應的效率相當高。而不是在不需要的時候付費。我會說這就像市場方面提高底線的最大機會。
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
But do you think there's sort of an efficiency curve we should think about as you go to $1 billion of EBITDA? Or is it mainly OpEx and top line driven?
但是你認為當你達到 10 億美元的 EBITDA 時,我們應該考慮一條效率曲線嗎?還是主要是運營支出和營收驅動?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
What do you mean on a -- what specific cost curve are you speaking about?
你在說什麼具體的成本曲線是什麼意思?
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO
Just in general, for marketplace. So you're getting some significant improvements. It sounds like now -- it sounds like there's opportunities to do that further. But how much of a contribution is that to the $1 billion you're targeting for 2024?
總的來說,對於市場。所以你得到了一些顯著的改進。聽起來像現在 - 聽起來有機會進一步做到這一點。但這對您 2024 年的 10 億美元目標有多大貢獻?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
It's a meaningful part of that. There's still quite a bit of room left in the last 2 quarters with the goal of swallowing this insurance increase, we did make some material progress but there is, I would say, tens to hundreds of millions of dollars of marketplace efficiency over the next couple of years.
這是其中一個有意義的部分。過去兩個季度仍有相當大的空間,以吞下這種保險增長的目標,我們確實取得了一些實質性進展,但我想說,在接下來的幾個季度中,市場效率將達到數千萬到數億美元年。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Deepak Mathivanan with Wolfe Research.
您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Deepak Mathivanan。
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
Just a couple of ones. So first, if I look at the fourth quarter guide, it's about $100 million or so quarter-to-quarter increase. It sounds like a sizable portion of that is coming from the incremental service fees. I know the seasonality is a little bit different for rides and scooters.
就幾個。所以首先,如果我看一下第四季度的指南,它是大約 1 億美元左右的季度增長。聽起來其中很大一部分來自增加的服務費。我知道遊樂設施和踏板車的季節性略有不同。
And you said that macro is not as much of an impact right now. But what's factored in, in terms of sort of organic rate growth maybe quarter-to-quarter. Maybe you can provide a little bit of color on that, that would be great.
你說宏現在沒有那麼大的影響。但是,就有機增長率而言,可能會按季度計算。也許你可以提供一點顏色,那會很棒。
And then on the long-term guide or 2024 expectations for $1 billion, with the additional cost savings, it seems like you certainly have a lot more levers and conviction to reach those levels. But what do you need to see to kind of raise those to a higher levels right now?
然後在 10 億美元的長期指導或 2024 年預期中,加上額外的成本節省,看起來你肯定有更多的槓桿和信念來達到這些水平。但是你現在需要看到什麼才能將這些提升到更高的水平?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Sure, Elaine will take the question you had -- the first question you had.
當然,Elaine 會回答你的問題——你的第一個問題。
Elaine Paul - CFO
Elaine Paul - CFO
Yes. So in terms of our Q4 revenue outlook, it implies 9% to 11% quarter-on-quarter growth and 18% to 20% year-on-year growth. And just to reiterate, that Q4 revenue range would be a new company high. It reflects the service fee and growth in rideshare rides. And as you noted, that is partly offset by the seasonality we see in bike and scooter revenue. And just to reiterate, the service fee is less than $0.50 a ride.
是的。因此,就我們第四季度的收入前景而言,這意味著環比增長 9% 至 11%,同比增長 18% 至 20%。重申一下,第四季度的收入範圍將是公司的新高。它反映了拼車服務的費用和增長。正如您所指出的,這部分被我們在自行車和踏板車收入中看到的季節性所抵消。重申一下,每次乘車的服務費不到 0.50 美元。
With respect to the rides growth, we are assuming rideshare rides grow quarter-on-quarter in Q4 in line with the same sort of rides growth we saw quarter-on-quarter last year in 2021. So it's the combination of those 2 things, service fee plus the Rides growth, partially offset by the seasonality in bikes and scooters that are driving the incremental roughly $100 million increase quarter-on-quarter.
關於遊樂設施的增長,我們假設拼車遊樂設施在第四季度環比增長,與我們去年在 2021 年看到的環比遊樂設施增長相同。所以這是這兩件事的結合,服務費加上游樂設施的增長,部分被推動環比增長約 1 億美元的自行車和踏板車的季節性所抵消。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
And then on 2024, the 2 -- again, as we've noted a few times on this call, we have increasing confidence in our ability to hit $1 billion adjusted EBITDA target. I'd say the kind of material differences between the 2 cases we're tracking are: one, the rate of growth on the demand side or any recessionary pressure, which on the driver engagement side is -- lowers the cost of driver engagement and acquisition. So those are the biggest movers and in either direction would drive even further confidence.
然後在 2024 年,再次,正如我們在本次電話會議中多次指出的那樣,我們對實現 10 億美元調整後 EBITDA 目標的能力越來越有信心。我想說的是,我們正在跟踪的兩種情況之間的實質性差異是:第一,需求方面的增長率或任何衰退壓力,這在駕駛員參與方面是——降低了駕駛員參與的成本,以及獲得。因此,這些是最大的推動者,無論朝哪個方向,都會進一步推動信心。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.
您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。
Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst
Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst
Maybe one to double back and one more on the financials. In terms of driving continued adoption of new riders, maybe just give us a little bit of sense of what you see as the biggest unlock factors there? Is it lower priced rides? Is it more flexibility? Is it the product continuing to evolve? Because I think the biggest question we get from investors a lot is just elements of continuing to deepen out and widen the rider base in the next couple of years as an element of growth, even if that results at more moderate price per unit type ride. So just better understanding that, I think would be helpful.
也許一個翻倍,另一個在財務上。在推動新車手的持續採用方面,也許只是讓我們稍微了解一下您認為最大的解鎖因素是什麼?是低價遊樂設施嗎?是不是更靈活?產品是否在不斷發展?因為我認為我們從投資者那裡得到的最大問題是,在未來幾年內繼續深化和擴大騎手基礎作為增長的一個因素,即使這會導致每單位類型的騎行價格更適中。所以只是更好地理解這一點,我認為會有所幫助。
And then looking at the financials, any color you could give us on some of the trends around stock-based comp not just for you guys, but generally across the industry, we continue to see sort of upward pressure there. How much is that driven by elements of hiring or retention or elements of where the stock price is or things that are more backward looking than forward looking? Some color on how to think about that would be super helpful.
然後看看財務狀況,你可以給我們任何關於股票補償的一些趨勢的顏色,不僅對你們,而且對整個行業來說,我們繼續看到某種向上的壓力。這在多大程度上是由招聘或保留因素或股價所在因素或向後看多於前瞻性的因素推動的?關於如何思考的一些顏色將非常有幫助。
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Yes. So first, in terms of really kind of the TAM growth and the opportunity, one of the largest areas of opportunity that we see beyond the demographic trends is increasing reliability and affordability. So first on reliability, the moments where the ETA is too high or there's simply not a driver available, that is sort of latent demand in the system today that we are just not capturing and we should be.
是的。因此,首先,就 TAM 的真正增長和機會而言,我們在人口趨勢之外看到的最大機會領域之一是可靠性和可負擔性的提高。因此,首先是可靠性,ETA 太高或根本沒有可用驅動程序的時刻,這是當今系統中的一種潛在需求,我們只是沒有捕捉到,我們應該捕捉到。
There are many times where we can match. There is a driver out there somewhere, who would be willing to do that ride at the right price, and there's a rider out there willing to pay that price. And we are simply not matching those 2 and we can be. So increasing that reliability so that you can always get a ride and you can count on it in any situation, any geography, et cetera, I think, is probably the largest opportunity.
有很多時候我們可以匹配。某處有一位司機願意以合適的價格乘坐該車,並且有一位騎手願意支付該價格。我們根本不匹配這兩個,我們可以。因此,提高這種可靠性,以便您始終可以搭便車,並且您可以在任何情況下依靠它,任何地理位置等等,我認為,這可能是最大的機會。
Secondarily, as John was talking about earlier, our portfolio of lower-cost options from Wait & Save to shared rides, I think we found to be very powerful. And the ridesharing sort of market is known to have significant dynamic pricing whereas supply tightens up, the prices go up, to maintain service levels, but being able to maintain a low-cost option and flexing service levels so that low-cost option may mean you're sharing the ride or it may mean you're waiting a little longer for the pickup. But always having those options at that price point and having that flex coherently as a portfolio, I think there's still a lot of room in terms of how we kind of price and organize the portfolio together to create optimal kind of experience for our customers. So those are broadly the kind of big product-focused levers that we're focused on in addition to the sort of demographic shifts over time.
其次,正如約翰之前所說,我們從 Wait & Save 到共享遊樂設施的低成本選擇組合,我認為我們發現我們非常強大。眾所周知,拼車市場具有顯著的動態定價,而供應收緊,價格上漲,以維持服務水平,但能夠維持低成本選擇和靈活的服務水平,以便低成本選擇可能意味著您正在拼車,或者這可能意味著您要等待更長時間才能上車。但總是在那個價位上擁有這些選項,並且作為一個投資組合具有連貫的靈活性,我認為在我們如何定價和組織投資組合以為我們的客戶創造最佳體驗方面仍有很大的空間。因此,除了隨著時間的推移發生的人口變化之外,這些都是我們關注的以產品為中心的大型槓桿。
Elaine Paul - CFO
Elaine Paul - CFO
Then in terms of your question regarding stock-based comp, a couple of things that will help reduce stock-based comp going forward. Obviously, the risk has an impact on reducing stock-based comp. In addition, we have stopped U.S. new hiring in the United States.
然後就您關於基於股票的薪酬的問題而言,有幾件事將有助於減少基於股票的薪酬。顯然,風險對減少基於股票的補償有影響。此外,我們已停止在美國招聘美國新員工。
And with respect to backfills going forward, we're shifting the nexus of our hiring away from largely U.S. to focus on international markets. where there's a different compensation model with low or no equity in markets like Canada and Eastern Europe. So we're proactively taking these moves to reduce the impact on our comp and [bend] expense as well as the impact of stock-based comp and effective dilution.
關於未來的回填,我們正在將我們的招聘關係從主要是美國轉移到專注於國際市場。在加拿大和東歐等市場有不同的薪酬模式,股權很少或沒有股權。因此,我們正在積極採取這些舉措,以減少對我們的薪酬和 [彎曲] 費用的影響,以及基於股票的薪酬和有效稀釋的影響。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Black。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Great curious, how should we be thinking about driver incentive levels? You mentioned it earlier. I think last quarter, you spoke about incentives spend per trip being down sequentially sort of between the second and the third quarter. How should we be thinking about trending into the fourth?
很好奇,我們應該如何考慮駕駛員的激勵水平?你之前提到過。我認為上個季度,您談到每次旅行的獎勵支出在第二季度和第三季度之間依次下降。我們應該如何考慮進入第四個趨勢?
And then it would be great if you could sort of give us your perspective on the new DOL proposal for employee classification. Where do you sort of see driver classification, the debate sort of ending up? Is there a path sort of for the IC [12th] model to be or more widely adopted across the country?
如果您能向我們提供您對新的 DOL 員工分類提案的看法,那就太好了。你在哪裡看到司機分類,辯論結束了? IC [12th] 模型在全國范圍內被或更廣泛地採用是否有某種路徑?
Elaine Paul - CFO
Elaine Paul - CFO
Yes. With respect to your first question on driver incentives, one thing that's really important to remind everyone to point out, is that driver incentives and the extent to which they fluctuate quarter-to-quarter is largely driven by prime time and in the imbalance that we see in the marketplace. So we do project going from Q3 to Q4 and embedded in the guidance that we're giving, we're projecting driver incentives to go up quarter-on-quarter in aggregate and on a per ride basis, but for it to be entirely funded by prime time. And that increase in prime time is largely driven by things that we're seeing on the demand side and increased demand in peak periods, which we see as a good healthy sign.
是的。關於你關於司機激勵的第一個問題,有一點非常重要,需要提醒大家指出的是,司機激勵及其季度波動的程度很大程度上是由黃金時段和我們的不平衡驅動的。在市場上看到。因此,我們進行從第三季度到第四季度的項目,並嵌入我們提供的指導中,我們預計司機激勵措施將按季度和每次騎行總量環比增長,但要完全得到資助到黃金時段。黃金時段的增加主要是由我們在需求方面看到的事情以及高峰期需求增加推動的,我們認為這是一個良好的健康跡象。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
On the [pro] regulation, you asked about the Department of Labor. They released a proposed rule with 60 days of public comment. This was not at all a surprise. In fact, it was expected on day 1 of the administration. There's no immediate or direct impact to the Lyft business. And important to note, this rule does not reclassify Lyft drivers as employees. It does not force Lyft to change our business model. And it's a very similar approach to that the Obama Administration took to use -- to determine employee status and as previously applied to Lyft and other app-based companies and did not result in a reclassification of drivers. App-based work as hopefully, most people on the call know, is quite fundamentally different than traditional 95 work. And we will continue to advocate for laws that drivers consistently show they prefer that includes flexibility plus benefits like the one that recently was enacted in Washington State, which gave drivers, what they wanted that independence with benefit.
關於 [pro] 法規,您詢問了勞工部。他們發布了一項擬議規則,並徵求了 60 天的公眾意見。這一點也不意外。事實上,這是在政府執政的第一天就預料到的。對 Lyft 業務沒有直接或直接的影響。需要注意的是,這條規則不會將 Lyft 司機重新歸類為員工。它不會迫使 Lyft 改變我們的商業模式。這與奧巴馬政府採用的方法非常相似——確定員工身份,並且以前應用於 Lyft 和其他基於應用程序的公司,並且不會導致對司機的重新分類。希望大多數通話中的人都知道,基於應用程序的工作與傳統的 95 工作完全不同。我們將繼續倡導司機一貫表現出他們喜歡的法律,其中包括靈活性和福利,就像最近在華盛頓州頒布的那樣,它為司機提供了他們想要的獨立和福利。
So to your broader point, I do think there will be more opportunities for that type of law of independence plus benefits and no major change from the federal policy.
所以從更廣泛的角度來看,我確實認為這種獨立加福利的法律會有更多的機會,而且聯邦政策不會發生重大變化。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.
您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
Maybe just the first one on the active riders. I know there's a lot going on with the recovery and sort of getting back to pre-COVID levels. But just as you sort of think about the growth of riders, the [port] to kind of bring new people into the population. Can you just help us better understand percentage of your riders right now are new credit cards and new people that weren't on the Lyft platform, say, pre-COVID swing an idea of new people coming to the platform?
也許只是活躍騎手的第一個。我知道恢復和恢復到 COVID 之前的水平有很多事情要做。但是,就像您考慮騎手的增長一樣,[港口]將新人帶入人口中。您能否幫助我們更好地了解您現在的乘客中的百分比是新信用卡和不在 Lyft 平台上的新人,例如,在 COVID 之前搖擺新人進入平台的想法?
And then the second one, I think insurance has been somewhat surprising to people this year a little bit. As you think about the path toward $1 billion of EBITDA, what are your assumptions on insurance costs between now and 2024?
然後是第二個,我認為今年的保險讓人們有些意外。當您考慮通向 10 億美元 EBITDA 的道路時,您對從現在到 2024 年的保險成本有何假設?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
You say that last thing you called off on the insurance cost piece?
你說你在保險費用上取消的最後一件事?
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
Yes. Sorry. Just trying to get an understanding for your assumptions on insurance costs between now and 2024 and the EBITDA guide.
是的。對不起。只是想了解您對從現在到 2024 年之間的保險成本的假設以及 EBITDA 指南。
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
So on the first point, in Q3, we had the most active riders and ride volume since COVID started. Quarter-over-quarter, it was 2% Active Rider growth, which was in line with the broader industry. And if you look back and sort of look at absolute numbers, it's in line with the quarter-over-quarter growth we saw back pre-pandemic, if you look at Q3 2019. And broadly, as we talked about before, we continue to see service levels improve. So we see better retro ETAs. We see less prime time declining over -- quarter-over-quarter. And our conversion rate in Q3 '22 was the highest it's been in recent years. So we feel great about that.
因此,在第一點,在第三季度,我們擁有自 COVID 開始以來最活躍的車手和騎行量。與上一季度相比,Active Rider 增長了 2%,與更廣泛的行業一致。如果你回顧一下絕對數字,如果你看看 2019 年第三季度,它與我們在大流行前看到的季度環比增長一致。從廣義上講,正如我們之前談到的,我們繼續看到服務水平提高。所以我們看到了更好的複古 ETA。我們看到黃金時間減少了 - 季度環比。我們在 22 年第三季度的轉化率是近年來最高的。所以我們對此感覺很好。
We continue to market to and bring in new riders all of the time. We're -- in terms of new rider growth in Q3, new riders grew by nearly 10% quarter-over-quarter. So it's something that we continue to invest in and lean into.
我們一直在繼續向新車手推銷和引進新車手。我們 - 就第三季度的新騎手增長而言,新騎手環比增長了近 10%。所以這是我們繼續投資和傾斜的東西。
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
And then you asked about the 2024 case and what's assumed on the insurance. So the case of getting -- we're confident of getting to the $1 billion and we have baked in any assumed changes in insurance on our annual October renewal. And we think going forward, we have much better line of sight into those insurance rates. So again, I want to reiterate, we feel quite confident in our path to $1 billion in 2024, and that does bake in the renewal for insurance next October.
然後您詢問了 2024 年的案例以及保險的假設情況。因此,我們有信心達到 10 億美元,並且我們已經在每年 10 月的續保中考慮了任何假設的保險變化。我們認為,展望未來,我們對這些保險費率有了更好的了解。因此,我想再次重申,我們對 2024 年達到 10 億美元的道路充滿信心,這確實會影響明年 10 月的保險續約。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from John Blackledge with Cowen.
您的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 和 Cowen。
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Two questions. First, what markets drove the strength in the third quarter and into October? And then what markets were lagging? It sounds like West Coast still lagging a bit?
兩個問題。首先,哪些市場推動了第三季度和 10 月份的強勢?然後哪些市場落後了?聽起來西海岸還是有點落後?
And then second, on Lyft Pink, any update on the subscription program and what percentage of bookings are from Lyft Pink subs?
其次,在 Lyft Pink 上,訂閱計劃的任何更新以及來自 Lyft Pink 訂閱者的預訂百分比是多少?
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
John Patrick Zimmer - Co-Founder, President & Vice Chairman
Sure. So just a quick response on the markets, quite similar to what we've seen in the past, continue to see kind of strength on the East Coast compared to pre-pandemic, markets like New York and Miami continue to be extremely strong, whereas those SF, LA, West Coast markets are just lagging behind. But over the last 2 quarters, we have seen them start to pick up. So no difference in that trend, which we talked about last quarter. Logan, do you want to talk about Pink?
當然。因此,與我們過去看到的情況非常相似,只是對市場的快速反應,與大流行前相比,東海岸繼續表現強勁,紐約和邁阿密等市場繼續非常強勁,而那些舊金山、洛杉磯、西海岸的市場只是落後了。但在過去兩個季度中,我們看到它們開始回升。因此,我們在上個季度談到的這種趨勢沒有區別。洛根,你想談談粉紅嗎?
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Logan D. Green - Co-Founder, CEO & Director
Yes. So back in April, we relaunched Pink at a new price point. It's now priced at $9.99 a month and a brand-new headline benefit, which is unlimited priority pickups. So priority pickup typically costs $4 to $5 over the standard price of ride, and it gets you a faster pickup. You sort of cut the line ahead of everybody else. And our members -- we're seeing great product market fit. Our members are seeing, on average, over $29 of benefit per month. So it's like roughly a 3x return for them, and we're layering in other benefits. So we're doing savings on sort of luxury and preferred rides, waiving fees on cancellations and a really unique benefit is our roadside assistance that we think is a lot better than AAA. You open up the app, click a button and you have a tow truck showing up, the same kind of classic Lyft experience.
是的。所以早在四月份,我們就以新的價格重新推出了 Pink。它現在的價格為每月 9.99 美元,還有一個全新的標題福利,即無限制優先取貨。因此,優先取車的費用通常比標準乘車價格高 4 到 5 美元,而且可以讓您更快地取車。你有點領先於其他人。還有我們的成員——我們看到了非常適合市場的產品。我們的會員平均每月可享受超過 29 美元的福利。所以這對他們來說大約是 3 倍的回報,而且我們正在增加其他好處。因此,我們正在節省一些豪華和首選的遊樂設施,免除取消費用,一個真正獨特的好處是我們認為比 AAA 更好的路邊援助。你打開應用程序,點擊一個按鈕,你就會看到一輛拖車,這就是經典的 Lyft 體驗。
Additionally, we have the All Access Pink, which is $199 a month (sic) [year]. This is where we've been or our bike share membership programs. So this is an incredible deal weaving in sort of first of its kind national bike share membership. We see Pink members taking 3x the number of rides compared to nonmembers. So it is showing a lot of impact. And while we're not disclosing number of subs, we are starting to see some real growth in the program, and we are very excited about it.
此外,我們還有 All Access Pink,每月 199 美元(原文如此)[年]。這是我們去過的地方或我們的自行車共享會員計劃。因此,這是一項令人難以置信的交易,它首次成為全國自行車共享會員。我們看到 Pink 會員的乘車次數是非會員的 3 倍。所以它顯示出很大的影響。雖然我們沒有透露訂閱者的數量,但我們開始看到該計劃的一些真正增長,我們對此感到非常興奮。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
女士們,先生們,感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。