拉斯維加斯金沙集團 (LVS) 2011 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good afternoon.

  • My name is Marvin and I will be your conference operator.

  • At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Las Vegas Sands Corporation first-quarter earnings conference call.

  • All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

  • After the speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.

  • (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

  • I will now hand the call over to our host, Mr.

  • Daniel Briggs.

  • Sir, you may begin.

  • - VP of IR

  • Thank you.

  • Before I turn the call over to Mr.

  • Adelson, let me remind you today's call will contain forward-looking statements that we are making under the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

  • The Company's actual results could differ materially from the anticipated results in those forward-looking statements.

  • Please see today's press release under the caption forward-looking statements for a discussion of risks that may affect our results.

  • In addition, we may discuss adjusted net income, adjusted diluted EPS, and adjusted property EBITDA, which are non-GAAP measures.

  • A definition and a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most comparable gap financial measures are included in the press release.

  • Please note that this presentation is being recorded.

  • With that, let me please introduce our Chairman, Mr.

  • Sheldon G.

  • Adelson.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Thanks, Dan, and good afternoon, everyone.

  • On behalf of our management team here with me today, I would like to thank all of you for joining us.

  • As you can see from our press release, the Company had another record quarter, producing $746 million in EBITDA and a record $2.11 billion in revenue.

  • We played a little unlucky during the quarter and on a normalized basis, we would have been just under $785 million, a solid run rate of more than $3.1 billion of EBITDA per year, which I believe will be a record for any similar company in history.

  • These results amount to the seventh consecutive time, the Company has increased its quarterly adjusted property EBITDA over the previous quarter.

  • This trend started at the end of the second quarter of 2009, and since that time, we've more than tripled our quarterly EBITDA results from $247 million in quarter 2 of 2009 to the $746 million we reported today.

  • I believe that upward trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

  • Why do I feel that way?

  • Let me explain by starting in Macao with the properties operated by a majority-owned subsidiary, Sands China Limited are continuing to enjoy market leading EBITDA generation.

  • The Venetian Macao increased its EBITDA by $58.5 million over the same quarter a year ago to reach $228 million, and a record 35.8% EBITDA margin.

  • Nonrolling chip drop, which is the mass market tables, rolling volume, that's the VIP business, and slot handle, all increased over the first quarter of last year.

  • Adjusted property EBITDA at the Sands Hotel was $92.6 million, an increase of nearly 33% compared to first quarter of 2010.

  • Like the Venetian Macao, not only chip drop, rolling volume, and slot handle at the Sands, all increased significantly over the same quarter a year ago.

  • The Plaza Casino at the Four Seasons Hotel, with increases in rolling volume and slot handle, also had its best quarter ever generating $57.5 million in EBITDA.

  • Our rolling program in Macao showed a continued increase with contributions coming from existing junket business and recently added junkets.

  • We recognize we have the ability to increase our presence in the junket segment, and that will be an area for continued focus moving forward.

  • Our team is working with our existing group of junket operators as well as new junkets in an effort to maximize our position in this segment.

  • We're also working to adapt a diverse physical product to better suit their needs and creating a differentiated service environment for their customers.

  • With continued initiative, designed to enhance human capital, customer service, and our physical presence, we are well positioned to continue growth in the VIP segment.

  • We're very pleased with our quarter in Macau, but not content to simply leave the car on cruise control.

  • We have the largest footprint in the largest gaming market in the world, and we are eager to take advantage of the significant organic growth opportunity that's in front of us.

  • And, I have no doubt that we will achieve even greater success in the months and years to come.

  • In addition to our organic growth opportunities in Macau, we're also looking forward to the opening of sites 5 and 6 on the Cotai Strip.

  • Although we have made significant progress on parcels 5 and 6, our anticipated opening of Phase I could slip to first quarter 2012 if we do not secure increases in our present construction labor force.

  • As the bulk 13.7 million square foot property, the world's largest building constructed at one time, opens over the course of next year, it will profoundly enhance our presence in Macau.

  • We will nearly triple our hotel room inventory with the addition of 6,400 rooms and thus provide the capability we believe is vitally important to growing our MICE business in Macau.

  • We will also be adding other important non-gaming amenities, which will include more MICE space along with additional retail, entertainment, and dining.

  • The opening of this development will be the last significant opening in Macau for the foreseeable future and will secure our position as the leading operator in the world's number one gaming market, thereby expanding our footprint in Macau.

  • In addition, sites 5 and 6 with thousands of nongaming jobs will further help the government in its efforts to diversify Macau's economy.

  • Today we're just as committed to helping Macau reach its potential as an international leader and business destination as we were nearly 7 years ago when we first touched down in Macau, and no developer has invested more on behalf of that effort.

  • So, that's Macau.

  • Now, let's talk about Singapore.

  • Let me start by saying that the doors to Marina Bay Sands opened 1 year ago last week, and in the 52 weeks since that opening, we have made more than $1 billion in EBITDA.

  • That's US.

  • The reason I bring that up is not to remind everyone that I had predicted that we would make $1 billion in our first year, though I do take a little joy in that, I bring it up because it represents just the beginning of what we can achieve in Singapore.

  • We made $1 billion at a property which for the first several months was not able to offer its complete set of amenities.

  • In fact, just this past quarter, we opened important visitation drivers such as the Arts Science Museum, the Light and Water Show, and Disney's Lion King.

  • My point is that while we reached a billion dollars in the first year, we're still miles away from realizing the full potential of our opportunity in Singapore.

  • Our MICE business, while very strong is still in the early stages compared to where it will ultimately be in the months and years ahead.

  • The same can be said for retail, food, and beverage, and the hotel.

  • As for our gaming business in Singapore, I recently saw a CNBC story which quoted Royal Bank of Scotland predicting gross gaming revenue in Singapore would rise 25% to $6.4 billion in 2011 and surpass Las Vegas as the world's second biggest gaming market.

  • With only two of us in the market, and with our success in the high-margin mass business, which is now exceeding $4 million a day in Wynn, we're strongly positioned to benefit from that additional growth.

  • The first quarter of 2011, Marina Bay Sands nonrolling table game drop was $986 million and slot handle was $2 billion.

  • Rolling chip volume was $10.1 billion for the quarter, as our marketing programs continue to take hold.

  • Additionally, room occupancy was 86.3% with an ADR of $285 US.

  • A combined retail and food and beverage revenue was approximately $100 million during the quarter.

  • As I alluded to earlier, we don't see these parts of our business doing anything but continuing to grow.

  • So, to say we have additional opportunities in Singapore would be something of an understatement.

  • Here in the US, our Las Vegas properties were impacted by about $45 million in revenue on low hold.

  • Group business continues to improve, but I am very bullish about our prospects in this segment.

  • Based on our existing bookings, we expect to do more than 700,000 group room nights in 2011, with an expectation of 1 million total group nights in 2012.

  • Our results for the first quarter showed that the number of rooms sold to cash paying customers, our average daily rate, and the number of group and convention customers served, all increased significantly during the quarter compared to last year.

  • In fact, 97% of our rooms sold in the quarter were cash customers compared to 68% a year ago.

  • One final note on Las Vegas.

  • We are pleased to announce that we have brought John Caparello as the new President of the Venetian Palazzo.

  • John is very engaging and has deep hospitality experience which includes having served as Chief Operating Officer of Gaylord Hotels.

  • We're glad to have John join us and we think he will be a great addition to our Las Vegas operations.

  • Turning to our operations in Bethlehem, Sands Bethlehem recorded its best quarter ever with adjusted property EBITDA of $22.1 million and an EBITDA margin of 24.3%.

  • The hotel at Sands Bethlehem will open by the end of this month, and we now have plans to open the retail component at the property in the fourth quarter this year.

  • The 300-room hotel will be the largest full-service hotel in Lehigh Valley, and when combined with our additional entertainment and dining offerings, provides us an excellent platform for growth at our only East Coast property.

  • Finally, let me close by saying that the Company's financial position is the best it has ever been, and we're excited by the various options that keep us moving forward.

  • Our substantial cash generating capabilities and strong financial positioning, coupled with favorable capital market conditions, provides us with a number of opportunities to optimize the capital structure of the Company and reduce our overall borrowing costs.

  • There will be more to come on this issue in the months ahead.

  • So, with that, Mike is here to discuss any operational questions you may have, Rob is here for your gaming questions, and Ken can further discuss our current financial position.

  • So, let's go to Q&A.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • Our first question comes from the line of Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

  • - Analyst

  • Hey, guys.

  • My first question is on Singapore.

  • You'll probably get this a lot after the call, but I think if you look at Singapore adjusted for that unlucky hold and normalize that, the EBITDA result a little bit less than probably where consensus was, and as I go through the pieces and normalize the hold on the VIP side, I think what would be helpful to all of us, and maybe Rob if you can do this, maybe go through what you think the department profit margin is for the various segments, whether it's VIP, mass and slots, room, other, because it looks like expenses overall were much higher than I otherwise would have expected, or even looking at where it's been relative to revenue growth.

  • If you can help us understand those items going forward, it would be helpful.

  • If you can give us any sense in terms of April trends in Singapore, that would be helpful, and I have one other follow-up after that.

  • - President and COO

  • Joe, we don't give change in the margins on the casino side.

  • We've told you all along we think we'll be in the mid-60s, actually, perhaps 67, 68 in the mass slot and table combined, hold percentage, holds around 22.5% plus.

  • We see volume growing nicely.

  • On the VIP roll side, I think we're still in the low 30s.

  • Again, the hold percentage is what is, but we don't see the margins change.

  • We've been consistent in our approach towards the commissions, so I don't see a lot of changes there.

  • And, I don't think that we'll see change in April, May, or beyond.

  • If anything, I see increasing margins in the mass table and slot as you grow there.

  • I don't see commissions -- I don't see the margin getting a whole lot better on the rolls as well, still being the low 30s because you're still paying out; most of the business in the very high end and you're paying as high as 1 - 4, so I don't see how we get that much beyond 32%, 33%, but I do see a little bit of appreciation as we grow on the slot table mass side.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • And then, Sheldon you said earlier that you're having some early success in Macau with recently added junkets.

  • If you could give us a sense -- what percentage of the roll -- I don't know if you want to look at all three in the aggregate in Macau in the first quarter, but what percentage of the roll was junket promoter related versus the last quarter?

  • That would be helpful.

  • Thanks.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Well, Joe, I'll take the questions.

  • I can be a little more helpful.

  • I just came back from a week over there.

  • Let's be clear, we think we have vast opportunity in the junket segment, roll segment in (inaudible) Macau.

  • We were pleased with our numbers, as Sheldon referenced on the call.

  • We see opportunity and we see vast opportunity to improve our operations, as Sheldon referenced, with service, with people, with spending more capital in the rooms, et cetera.

  • Our role will continue to be probably spread 80/20, 85/15, junket versus direct.

  • We've said before and we'll say it again, there's a market for the direct VIP, but the primary market in Macau has been and continues to be on the junket business because of the obvious reasons that we've talked about in the past.

  • Our goal is not to -- we all have to admit it, there are certain people who prefer to go direct to us.

  • We're finding a very, very strong business for us in Singapore, but the junket piece is the driver of the roll portion of our business in Macau, and our goal is to keep driving both segments of the roll.

  • I do think with the junkets that we've suffered some decisions in the past that weren't the best for this Company.

  • We're fixing that.

  • We are working very hard to whittle our real estate portfolio.

  • We have made decisions in this Company to be a big player in Macau, or the player in Macau.

  • I think our footprint speaks to that.

  • Our goal now is to grow organically, increase this segment dramatically.

  • As David Sisk and Ed Tracy and myself and the team over there are really committed.

  • We just spent a lot of time with all the different people, and I think the truth is we're going grow the segment.

  • It takes time and effort.

  • We will probably see appreciation on the junket as opposed to direct, because the direct stays pretty fixed.

  • The junket is where the real growth will reside.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mark Strawn with Morgan Stanley.

  • - Analyst

  • One question on Singapore and one question on Vegas.

  • On Singapore first, if you look at the pieces of the business you can control there -- maybe junkets at this point are outside of your control.

  • As you look forward, how do you see the growth trajectory of that property?

  • Is it really on the mass side?

  • How do you stimulate those volumes?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Mark, I will just speak to that (inaudible).

  • I think we -- you can see the appreciation in those numbers quarter after quarter.

  • It is magnificent to watch.

  • I think the team there is convinced that we're experiencing 20% growth annually.

  • We think we can -- I think that's achievable.

  • It's a 2-horse race.

  • We're privileged to be there.

  • It's a wonderful government, a wonderful place to visit.

  • I believe our building is iconic and in the right place physically to keep improving.

  • I believe our business is the aspirational place of the 2, honestly.

  • We're getting a lot of new players every day.

  • It's never been, in my mind -- I've never seen a place with this much mass table business consistently and slot business.

  • You see the numbers coming out.

  • You see the growth, if you look at our growth in the last -- just from the second or third quarter, we were doing $892 million, we're now at $986 million.

  • We're going from $196 million to $222 million.

  • I'm talking millions, obviously.

  • The slot growth is unbelievable, go from 1, 3, 5, 8 and winning $80 million to 2,0,4,1 winning $108 million.

  • With does it stop?

  • That's the question which we can't answer.

  • All we keep seeing is increased visitation.

  • Weekends are phenomenal.

  • I don't think there's any end right now to our ability to grow in this segment.

  • Sheldon referenced $4 plus million a day.

  • Does it get to $5 million?

  • I think it absolutely does.

  • The question is, what's the timing?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • The question is, how much more does it go?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Right.

  • I don't think there's any question.

  • We don't see any slowdown here.

  • We see appreciation.

  • I see appreciation quarter to quarter.

  • Ang McDonald and that team, Mark Gulianno's there now, Jerry Buck, Eric Person, they've done a terrific job of rethinking that floor all the time.

  • That team is very focused on driving slot and table mass.

  • I think it's going to be -- in the world, there may not be another market like it in terms of mass business with only 2 players in the market.

  • It's pretty -- it's extraordinary.

  • That will be the driver of EBITDA, in my opinion.

  • Sheldon and I discussed this.

  • Sheldon believes, and I think he's absolutely right, there will be terrific growth in the roll segment, but that will come later, as we've discussed in past calls our issues there.

  • For today, the real driver in my mind is the mass business.

  • It is nothing short of great.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • It's combination of the mass and the high end.

  • But, look, people are calling that property the eighth wonder of the world.

  • The nongaming aspects of it, the rooms, the retail, the entertainment -- the Lion King, we thought was going to be limited, but it's turning out to be a winner.

  • We're extending our contract there, and the Arts Science Museum is attracting a lot of people.

  • The comments that we get from all over the world, it's an incredible one-of-a-kind building.

  • If you think of Singapore as to what Las Vegas was many, many years ago, but there are only 2 properties on the entire strip, you divide all the money that's taken in with all the properties, the 100-plus casinos in Vegas and the 25 or so mega resorts on the strip, and you divide it up into -- you reallocate that to only 2 operators plus a huge community of very high-end players in back of it, you've got a very, very unique opportunity.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • That's helpful.

  • One quick follow-up on Las Vegas.

  • As you look at that balance between your comp and your cash room mix, seems like that had pretty sizable impact on slot handle side.

  • Is there -- did the dial get, perhaps, turned too far to the cash side of things, or is that how we should expect that mix to trend going forward as well?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I don't know.

  • It seems to me that somebody once said, if somebody wants to give you some money, don't turn it down, don't throw it back at them, and don't duck.

  • It only confirms the fact that the decision I made to reduce the amount of comps, which was the dogma in Las Vegas -- you have to give comps to get people to play, and our slot income, everybody thinks that the practice was to think of the gross income that you have, but nobody looked at the net income, so when people were giving out both free play and RFB in comps, it was too costly.

  • So, if we move from 68% to 90%-some-odd, I forget exactly the number, on cash, that's a good thing.

  • So, we stop giving it away, and therefore losing money on it, and we converted those into cash.

  • That's a very good thing.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from line of Janet Brashear with Sanford C.

  • Bernstein.

  • - Analyst

  • Macau, could you give us a little update on the progress relative to lots 5 and 6?

  • You said that you wouldn't be able to stay on schedule if you don't get additional labor.

  • I'm wondering in particular if there's any -- while the government is philosophically supportive of you finishing the project, if there's any impetus from them to help you speed it up or if they would rather keep the pace of casino development slow and maybe aren't as motivated to help you speed it up.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I think the government knows it's in Macau's best interest to complete the project as soon as we can, and I would like to say the government has been very helpful and very cooperative with us on the issue of labor.

  • They haven't given us any special treatment, but they're cooperating as much as we can expect them to do so.

  • So, I know that there will be some people who say, well, you talked about getting it ready by the last quarter of 2011, now you're saying it may be the first quarter, but these aren't exact sciences on the estimates of when we're going to get the labor.

  • We're a certain number of days lagging in the sedge, and it is possible that we can make it up, make up a substantial part of it.

  • In any event, I don't see anybody, any analyst, estimating any contribution to income in either the fourth quarter of '11 or the first quarter of '12, so it really has no financial impact on anybody's projections.

  • - Analyst

  • Now, can you remind us what the run rate is you have on labor now and if you're expecting that to continue, even if you do not get additional labor?

  • - President and COO

  • Janet this is Mike.

  • We have roughly about 5,500 on the site now.

  • We're running about 5 weeks behind on the December target.

  • We met there last week.

  • We need to pick up another 1,000 to 1,500 employees in some of the specialty areas like mechanical, electrical, plumbing, et cetera, which is where the problems are.

  • We're still hopeful we can make that target, but the reason we're talking about possible slipping is if we don't get that extra 1,500 or so we would probably have difficulty -- we will have difficulty meeting the target.

  • We're gradually increasing.

  • Last week, we got 400 to 500 more.

  • We're hoping as Galaxy opens we get some more, particularly in that area from the MEP, so that's our count at the moment.

  • We track that every week, and I will be there again May 18 and take another look at exactly where we are at that time.

  • - Analyst

  • Mike, this is one follow-up.

  • Have you made a decision about a brand for the project, whether you want to keep your own brand or find another external operator to brand the project?

  • Something tells -- I knew you were going to ask that question.

  • (Laughter) We're talking now to 2 international brands about licensing that product and running it ourselves.

  • We have proposals in that we are going through, and final discussions are being held with 2 major international companies, both of which have significant penetration in Asia as well as around the globe.

  • My expectation is within a couple of weeks, I think we'll have an announce month on that basis.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with BofA Merrill Lynch.

  • - Analyst

  • Just wanted to ask quickly, going back to Singapore, the VIP side has been an area of big interest for folks.

  • Wondering if you guys could give us a little bit more sense of what you learned by month and any reads you have on April?

  • I'm specifically looking at March and April because one thing we're trying to understand is how much of an impact Chinese New Year had and what kind of a run rate in that business is going forward.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Chinese new year was not in April.

  • (Inaudible - different speaker.) In first quarter?

  • Well, we're undergoing the short -- shorter phase of golden week right now, this week.

  • What was the question again?

  • - Analyst

  • Trends in April?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Trends in April?

  • Let's see.

  • Without violating our no guidance program, I think those people who think that we'll significantly increase continued ramp-up will smile after we release the figures.

  • I think that's all I can say.

  • I will ask our attorney.

  • Can I say anymore?

  • If we're not giving guidance, I can't say any more.

  • People who look at the up side at optimistic, will find that April in all respects was an excellent month --

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Shaun, it's Rob.

  • I don't think that --

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • -- in all properties.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • We're only a year into this thing in Singapore.

  • The one thing we all know is obviously Chinese new year's is very powerful in when it falls.

  • Obviously, the calendar new year's is critical.

  • I don't think we're seeing a lot in terms of -- the one thing we've learned is the holidays are very important.

  • Easter is a 4-day holiday -- Easter Monday, Saturday, Sunday, Friday, it's wonderful.

  • It goes on for 4 or 5 days.

  • Same thing in Macau, but I think, at the end of the day, I'm not sure that the -- unlike Las Vegas, for example, it's very seasonal.

  • The heat in the summer impacts the group business, et cetera.

  • I don't think our roll segment in Singapore -- you're going to see significant impact by the calendar.

  • The more I'm there, the more I think it's just simply driven by -- there's demand every day.

  • The quarters won't be that much different, in my opinion; the fourth quarter has its holiday, so does first quarter, perhaps the summer.

  • Last year we had a very strong summer.

  • We'll see how this summer holds up, but it seems to me that the real key to Singapore is not seasonality, it's just growing the business and finding the customers, and them finding us.

  • I get the impression that the growth will be there, it's not driven at this point.

  • It's a new product; it's a new market.

  • I don't think the calendar or seasonality is near as important as people finding the property and getting there and liking it.

  • And the revisitation's picking up.

  • Sheldon referenced the very strong -- visitation is very strong in April, but I don't think it's going to be driven by -- the Asian market demand for gambling is very, very strong, as you all know.

  • I think that's the bigger driver than perhaps seasonality at this point in our experience in Singapore.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks, Rob.

  • I want to go back to the opportunity for the glass is half full as it relates to junkets in Singapore.

  • You are pretty conservative in terms of your -- some of your interpretation of some of the rules there.

  • Just wondering, I believe the general election has been scheduled now in Singapore, what do you think are next opportunities, the next pieces to get junkets legalized there and maybe your thoughts on the time frame?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • First of all, Shaun, I think we follow Sheldon's direction in terms of our strict interpretation of existing laws as we see them and that will restrict our ability to grow as quickly perhaps as might if we were more liberal, but I think it's the right approach until the government gives further guidance, kind of strict instructions approach to it.

  • Having said that, in junkets, there's now 31 companies in the queue as we speak.

  • I think that will grow to 40, 50 by the time the summer rolls around.

  • It grows every day.

  • There's some very good publicly listed companies that in group.

  • I think it's clear to see the government is now -- at some point makes the decisions about these complications, and we're certainly in the line to be involved with them.

  • That is in fact their approved licence and we'll wait till government guides us.

  • And, in the interim, we'll do our job internally by not dealing with anybody we think is not licensed, not having practices that could be questionable.

  • We adhere very, very strictly to Sheldon's direction and we think, the direction of the Singapore government.

  • Again, I think it's going to be a progression, a process, and we'll keep you posted on how it turns out.

  • There's going to be some license decisions made in calendar year 2011 in Singapore; I think that's pretty clear.

  • - Analyst

  • And then, one last one for Ken, there's been some discussion out there about some potential refinancings for you guys, I think in the Macau side, Ken.

  • Could you give us your thoughts about either -- opportunistically, I think some other operators in Macau have looked at tapping some lower cost financing recently, just what might you be considering on that front, and that's it for me.

  • Thanks.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Yes, sure, no problem.

  • We do have significant opportunities there.

  • I think the market conditions are favorable.

  • We've had some preliminary conversations with some of our lenders, and -- obviously, haven't finalized anything yet, but we do have an opportunity to refinance our operations in Macau which would generate savings from an interest perspective.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays Capital.

  • - Analyst

  • Rob, I have a question for you in Macau.

  • I know you have talked about and we've all seen and witnessed the strength of the Venetian, but obviously, there's a variety of different scenarios that can occur in Macau after Galaxy Macau opens, and one of those is that the environment gets promotional, so I was just wondering if you could discuss what your plans would be in such an environment and have you started at all to implement any new marketing programs ahead of that?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • First of all, I think we feel -- I feel very strong that Galaxy is a big contributor to the Cotai force of our business.

  • I think it's been very good for Cotai.

  • It can drive more visitation, that's a good thing.

  • We saw that with City of Dreams.

  • We welcome the Galaxy opening.

  • We're excited about it.

  • I think, again, Galaxy was more of a junket focused player, it will bring mass.

  • I think our belief -- my belief more than ever -- we're privileged to be in Cotai with Venetian.

  • The property is a must-see property.

  • It traffics a lot of people because it's got great things for a lot of different parts of the market.

  • It's very well segmented.

  • It's the building people want to see, it's interesting; the shopping is outstanding; the room count is great.

  • Diversity of food and beverage, entertainment.

  • I think we are going to benefit greatly by Galaxy.

  • On the junket side, I don't think Galaxy is going to impact us positively or negatively.

  • Our job is to seize the opportunity to just be a better player in the junket portion of our business.

  • That segment has suffered, and I think we need to get better at it.

  • The Wynn results point that out, how much opportunity there is there, and we'll just simply work on it.

  • But, I think when galaxy is opening -- I'm a strong believer, it's great for Cotai, it's great for the Vision's company, and I think it's great to Venetian as a mass player.

  • I don't think it impacts the Plaza Four Seasons that much, but when you walk through the Nation, it is a force of nature, it is a must-see place, and I think every person that comes to the Cotai peninsula, Cotai section of Macao, will make a stop at the Venetian.

  • I'm pretty confident.

  • Walking through last week, it just gets busier and busier, and it's reached a different level of importance I think in Macau.

  • I think Galaxy is a real force.

  • As for the promotional issues, I think the Galaxy people are going to be focused on making money and watching margins.

  • I don't think it's going to be an issue.

  • Our team is watching it very closely.

  • Ed and David are all over it.

  • I think if we have to react we will, but we've got protect the Venetian.

  • It's a very important part of our Macau strategy and is the player on the Cotai strip.

  • - Analyst

  • Great.

  • And then, just moving to Singapore, I wanted to get back to the question of margins and some of the costs.

  • So, sequentially, the margins -- the EBITDA margins were lower.

  • I was thinking it might be seasonality, but you had mentioned there really isn't a lot of seasonality, so there were some higher other expenses in the P&L that we saw.

  • I was just wondering, were some of those pre-opening from some of the nongaming things, or is this an EBITDA margin that we should think about?

  • - President and COO

  • I don't think any -- we haven't had margin pressure from any of the operating sides.

  • In fact, those operating margins are actually expanding.

  • Our rooms profit up through the beverage profit, our retail profit, all those are expanding.

  • I don't know of anything that -- do you know of something specific, Felice, that you're talking about?

  • - Analyst

  • I wouldn't have expected the sequential decline EBITDA margin.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • You did have a hold at 2.56%, obviously.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, but you gave us the adjusted -- the EBITDA margin of 53.2% adjusted.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • That's true.

  • - Analyst

  • So, maybe we chalk it up to seasonality?

  • - SVP and CFO

  • No.

  • No.

  • It's Ken.

  • I think it's predominantly driven by the hold.

  • I really think that that's the biggest issue.

  • When I'm looking at the margins, for the fronts, the hotel, and also the food and beverage, as Mike said, they both have expanded, so we didn't have a reduction in margins from those.

  • The only thing I could think of potentially is if you have new activities that are opening up that haven't ramped up from a revenue standpoint, then there's a possibility.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • No, I have the answer.

  • Ken has taken more conservative approach to the accounts receivable and he's put aside bigger reserves than what we've wanted to do, so -- but we've caved in to his conservative approach, (laughter) and at least for this period, that doesn't mean we're going to follow it in the future.

  • He's just put aside more reserves than what we think were warranted.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Conservative is good.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Being conservative is good.

  • I can't say it's bad, but if you ask the question, there's no other reason why that expenses would have been higher, and I think that amounted to about -- what's the number, Rob?

  • About $11 million?

  • Excess.

  • Excess reserves over what we think -- over what the operating people think we should have taken, but we caved in to what he said because, as you say, Felice, it can't hurt us to be more conservative.

  • - Analyst

  • Felice, it's Rob.

  • I just want to make sure we're clear (inaudible).

  • The most important single piece of the business in Macau -- in Singapore, which is the nonrolling mass and slot and table, the margins remain stellar.

  • If anything, I think we're going to grow as we get more -- obviously, more revenue out of those games in slot.

  • I don't think there is any value -- any issue there.

  • I do think the hotel is now running like a Las Vegas 2007 hotel.

  • It's running high 80s and high occupancies and high rates, and if anything, margins should get better -- I think on the operating side.

  • - President and COO

  • Even retail.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Yes, retail.

  • Everything is getting stronger, so we should do better.

  • We should show stronger.

  • - Analyst

  • Great.

  • I know you probably aren't going to be able to answer this or none of us are going to be able to answer this until [Genting] reports and we parse through their numbers, but do you have a sense at all of what your mass market share was and your VIP market share?

  • Maybe not specific numbers, but did you grow, decline?

  • Any view there?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Generally speaking I think that our mass market is -- everybody says, everybody seems to know, say that MBS is capturing a -- I won't say a runaway, but an increasing share of the mass market, and we're quite happy with that.

  • We're capturing a lesser share of the VIP market, because I don't want to get into details about junket reps or anything, but they seem to like to pay higher commissions than what we want to pay, and, so we think that they will come out with higher roll because they're, what we call, in the trade -- we call they're buying the business -- and we choose not to, quote, buy the business, although we are being somewhat more flexible on the commissions, but we don't want that to be the final arbiter of whose got what percentage of the market.

  • Eventually, people will come to the MBS and enjoy playing there.

  • Even if we play a little bit less, we have stated in the past, we don't want to get into a commission war.

  • If we get into a commission war, we won't intend -- we won't get in it for the purpose of losing, so we think that before we get on that horse and gallop into a commission war, we are going to see what happens when the government finishes its investigations and allows or disallows junket reps and how many of them and who they are, et cetera, so we're biding our time until those decisions are made.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Hey, Felice, it's Rob again.

  • On that issue, I think it's clear that RWS will out roll us significantly.

  • I believed that in the past.

  • I believe that trend will continue, and it's also an issue of how they see the market versus us, but I must tell you that it's not because our building isn't equal or better, our people are not equal or better.

  • I think the truth of the matter is if we choose to compete in that fashion, we can flip that switch on pretty quickly if that's the direction we're given.

  • So, I don't think it's a market difference, I don't think it's a building difference, I don't think it's a people difference.

  • I feel our team in the field is as good as it gets on the casino sales side and our team on the ground is as good as it gets.

  • So, if, in fact, we choose to rethink that approach, it wouldn't be difficult to compete with them.

  • I do think on mass business -- I'd be very surprised if we're not stronger than RWS by quite a bit.

  • I think our mass business is showing the strength of that building; the consumers are voting with their dollars, and I think you are going to see a nice movement (inaudible).

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I'd like the add that in the recent past, since we opened MBS, we have increased the number of sales people in the field substantially by dozens.

  • We have well over 100 people out there in the field bringing in the higher end customers, the premium customers, that will be considered at the -- premium direct customers at the lower rates, the VIP customers.

  • This is something we never had before because we couldn't justify 125, 150 salesmen in the field with only Vegas for them to come to, and we were seeing the junket reps in the market in Macau because they own such a substantial portion of the market there.

  • So now, with Singapore and with Vegas and whatever premium direct that we can build up where the junket reps don't have any penetration, this is quite unusual for us and -- well, it's not unusual, but it's really unprecedented.

  • We're going to continue to cultivate that direct sales channel.

  • We think that will help us significantly in the future.

  • - Analyst

  • Great.

  • And then, just quickie on Las Vegas, I was just wondering what the ADR group rate you were looking at in 2011 and in 2012 what you were seeing so far?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Last time I talked to sales people -- Mike, do you remember?

  • - President and COO

  • $180 in '11 for the group rate and it's up to about, it's close to $200 in '12, so far.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Eric told me that most of the business began with a (inaudible).

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

  • - Analyst

  • Great, thanks.

  • I wonder if you could give a little bit more color around the Singapore margin issue because you mentioned $11 million in excess reserves.

  • If I add that back into your EBITDA adjusted for holds, I'm still getting a margin that's down sequentially and maybe a little less than we would have expected, so I don't know if you can give a little bit of color on sequential changes in margin in some of the segments?

  • I didn't know if there was anything nonrecurring from opening costs or something in Q1, but just to -- or more specifics around those receivable numbers, the reserves, just so we can see how the margin would have looked or maybe what you're seeing that we're not seeing.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • What margin are you getting to?

  • - Analyst

  • If you're adding $11 million in, it gets to you something along the lines of $52.3 as a margin, and just looking at the down --

  • - SVP and CFO

  • But, I think you need to add it to the hold adjusted EBITDA margin, right?

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, I did.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • I just did the math.

  • I came up to a margin of about 55%.

  • - Analyst

  • Did you add back the hold adjusted revenues into the revenue base as well, because in theory you mentioned that adds about $30 million in revenues, and so you'd to have adjust the base, so that might bring the margin down.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Robin, let's compare that to any other company in the hospitality or leisure industry.

  • I mean these are phenomenal numbers.

  • - Analyst

  • These are phenomenal numbers and I guess we're just trying to get to what to expect going forward.

  • And so, I know you won't give guidance on that specifically, so all we can do is look at that sequential trend and say, in what direction is this margin moving and just trying to help us understand what direction it's moving given just the sequential change here.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • We'll take out some more magnifying glasses, take a closer look at it and we'll try to get back to you offline.

  • There is nothing that -- there's nothing that we know of that will impact future trends.

  • Nothing.

  • - Analyst

  • And, in the past, you've expressed an expectation, just generally without giving guidance, that there would be sequential EBITDA growth quarter to quarter in Singapore.

  • Is that still -- if that's correctly interpreting what you've said in the past, is that still your expectation going forward?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I don't understand what she said.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Yes.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • There was noise.

  • - Analyst

  • Do you expect EBITDA to go up sequentially every quarter as you've said previously?

  • - President and COO

  • It can't go up sequentially, based on seasonality, but it should go up on an annual basis.

  • If you compare the quarter sequentially, what you want to do is look at the third quarter when we finally get a quarter to quarter comparison year over year versus the last quarter of last year to see if it went up that way.

  • I don't know that you can make the judgement that sequentially you're going to go up each quarter versus the last quarter.

  • - Analyst

  • That was a comment that Management had made about as you expect to ramp up in year 1, so that may not be your expectation.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Making $1 billion from the start is not under-achieving.

  • It's not under-whelming.

  • Nobody has ever done this before.

  • - Analyst

  • Absolutely.

  • I so not disagree with you.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • There is nothing, Robin, in our expectations that will cause a speed bump, but in the nature of human and commercial activity throughout time in memorial, you get peaks and valleys.

  • Any week, any month, any quarter could be up or down for a whole variety of reasons that are unpredictable.

  • - President and COO

  • Robin, let me just say this.

  • Sequentially we have gone up every quarter.

  • For the second quarter of 2010, third quarter of 2010, fourth quarter of 2010, and now on an adjusted basis, we've gone up every quarter, on an EBITDA basis, normalized basis, so far.

  • So, are you asking the question as to whether we'll continue to go up sequentially?

  • I think a lot of that depends on seasonality.

  • If you're dealing with a Chinese New Year, you're dealing with a Golden Week or whatever, at the levels of occupancy and the levels of play that we have which go up, it still makes it somewhat difficult on a sequential basis to comparison based on how many holidays, how many situations.

  • That's all I'm saying, but theoretically we have gone up practically in the last 4 quarters every quarter.

  • Remember, you started with a very low base and now we're getting to a much higher base.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Okay.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Robin, we were at 54.6% last quarter, December 31, and -- she's talking about margin.

  • We're at 54.6%.

  • When we run through the numbers we get to something very, very close to that on a hold adjusted basis for this specific quarter.

  • It might be slightly down.

  • We talked about the $11 million charge.

  • There's nothing what so ever in our business that makes us believe that margin is going to decrease on a percentage basis unless we grow the rolling business at a higher rate than we're growing it at right now, either the percentage of the mass business and the hotel and the retail which will all grow margin.

  • - President and COO

  • Because your margin on the rolling is a 31% margin, so if you grow the rolling business, you are going to end up -- your margin may go down, but your EBITDA is going to go up.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Exactly.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • But, you're also going to grow the mass, Robin -- the mass business will continue to (inaudible) direction it's going in, so those margins should stay near mid-60s and that should provide the fuel to drive the whole property.

  • It shouldn't diminish, it should increase.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • That's great.

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jon Oh with CLSA.

  • - Analyst

  • Just a question on Singapore again, the whole adjusted EBITDA for this quarter was about $311 million, and if I recall correctly in the fourth quarter call, Sheldon, you mentioned that January was a pretty strong month with EBITDA of around $110 million.

  • How should we go about thinking about the contribution of EBITDA from February itself, which is the Chinese New Year impact?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I don't know.

  • I don't have the figures in front of me, but just recognize that there are peaks and valleys in everything in nature.

  • Nothing goes straight up, nothing goes straight down.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • (Inaudible).

  • The play was there, the hold wasn't on the high end.

  • (Inaudible).

  • On the mass side, it was a consistent 22% run.

  • Had we held a little luckier, Feb would be much stronger than it was.

  • The volumes are fine.

  • The luck wasn't there on the rolling side.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I just want to point out that we with picked back up from $8 million roll to $10 -- to $10 million roll from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of '11, so we've come back to where we were at the highest quarter in 2010.

  • Look this is a market that's going to continue to grow.

  • There is nothing predictable, nothing predictable whatsoever that will have a negative impact on percentage, and what really counts is how many dollars you can put in the bank and the teller at the bank doesn't qualify his acceptance of your deposit based upon the percentage of margin that you experience.

  • He just says give me the money, I'll put it in your account, that will be that.

  • But there is nothing predictable out there.

  • We don't see anything that will change any of the trends, and I'd like to say that we all feel quite decisively and unequivocally that this is a very unique market in the world that the South Asia, and the contributions from what may not be considered South Asia, southeast Asia, like China, like Japan, like Korea, have been contributing a lot to our high end of the market; and we see no reason why that won't continue to grow.

  • We continue to see people coming out of the woodwork at all levels, at the initial $100,000 level and at the $5 million and $10 million and increased levels.

  • They come out of the woodwork that a lot of -- some of them we didn't know before, some of them we had been trying to get as customers, and we're achieving that now.

  • We don't see any trough of any significance coming into our future in increasing the business.

  • When you're talking about -- there are people saying give or take $1.5 billion EBITDA are coming out of Singapore.

  • You're talking about very substantial amounts of money.

  • Pretty soon Singapore will deliver more EBITDA than the entire Las Vegas strip.

  • It's done.

  • So, we have great opportunity organically and great opportunity for expanded growth.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • And just a follow-up question on receivables.

  • Maybe if you can just help us by giving us bit more guidance on how we should be thinking about casino receivables in Singapore.

  • I see that rolling chip volume has recovered as you've said, pretty nicely in first quarter.

  • How should we be think about credit standards and also how are you treating provisions going forward, and if you can share us the amount of casino receivables in Singapore, if you have it by any chance?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • I'll answer the first part.

  • I'll leave it up to Ken or Rob to answer the second part.

  • The fact that we're doing -- that RWS is giving -- is probably going to have a lot more roll, maybe twice the roll that we had sort of indicates to you 2 things, vis-a-vis how they get the roll, and number 2, how conservative we are on granting credit.

  • We want to be conservative.

  • We don't want to come up with any big surprises on the negative side because we gave out too much credit and too recklessly.

  • We're extremely conservative on granting credit.

  • We're extremely conservative on collecting credit and on putting aside reserves.

  • We're in this for the long term.

  • We're not in it to make profit -- to create a tremendous impression for one quarter and forget about the future.

  • This is -- we're riding a very solid horse here, and we want to keep that horse going.

  • We're feeding it, we're grooming it, we're taking care of it, and we expect that it will just continue to grow on a prudent and conservative basis.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • It's Ken.

  • We've got about, from a receivables standpoint, on a gross basis, about $360 million of receivables.

  • We've got about 13.5% reserve against that, which I think is conservative, as Sheldon had mentioned before.

  • I don't see that necessarily changing much.

  • I think we've done a very good job with regard to being conservative with regard to granting credit; we've done a very good job with regard to collections of accounts outstanding.

  • We think that we're really in good shape from a receivables standpoint.

  • - Analyst

  • Ken, just to quickly, just to double check again -- $360 million, that's in US dollars, right?

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Correct.

  • - Analyst

  • And that's purely just for Singapore.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • That's correct.

  • - Analyst

  • Would you also be able to share us the number from Macau?

  • - SVP and CFO

  • Happy to.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Macao is mostly junket rev that turns over every month, every 30 days.

  • - SVP and CFO

  • It's a different environment because of the fact that Shelton mentioned, the junket receivables turn over very rapidly, so we've got in total gross receivables -- casino receivables from Macau, we've got about a $260 million balance.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • That could change tomorrow.

  • - Analyst

  • And a 27% reserve against that balance?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Correct.

  • It changes every day.

  • - Analyst

  • Finally, any quick updates on the hotel, the Shangri-la hotel which dropped out from sites 5 and 6?

  • Any announcements or if you could share with us some of your latest thoughts on your plans for that?

  • - President and COO

  • John, I mentioned to Janet Brashear before, you may have missed the answer.

  • We're in the final stages of negotiation with 2 international brands, 1 for the Shangri La and 1 for the traders site.

  • Most likely that will be completed in the next couple weeks.

  • We've had all the visitations and all the material in on our side and on their side, and we'll probably have an announcement by the end of this month.

  • I would say to give us a little leeway to do the negotiations we have to do, and we will then have 5 and 6 represented by 3 major international companies, all with heavy presentation in the Chinese market.

  • That's our goal there.

  • We will manage those 2 properties ourselves.

  • The Sheraton properties, they will manage as previously done.

  • There's been no change in that scenario.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Perfect, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Larry Klatzkin with Klatzkin Advisors.

  • - Analyst

  • Great results.

  • Looking forward to finishing your Macau property.

  • You're getting the hotel open in Bethlehem.

  • What's next?

  • Sheldon's Florida looks like it's still there, slowing down.

  • Massachusetts.

  • Possibilities in Asia.

  • Can you talk about where you might be going next?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • We're hoping that notwithstanding all the tragedy that's occurred in Japan, that we have -- we're hoping, or we have some reason to believe that they understand they've got do what they can to accelerate or to reinstate their reputation as a good tourist destination.

  • So that may -- that may be a blessing in disguise, vis-a-vis liberalization of the gaming laws and allowing IRs to be put in.

  • And, of course, we're -- everybody says we're the leading candidate there.

  • I heard that Steve Wynn recently said that he didn't think that Japan would be a very good place to attract people to, but bear in mind, Japan, from time in memorial has had these issues and there have been earthquakes and tsunamis there forever.

  • We just had a team of people over to Spain.

  • We are continuing to lay the groundwork for that.

  • We have constant meetings about planning and programming that is how much space we're going allocate to each of the properties.

  • We've talked to builders; we're in discussions with both the governments and land acquisition, both in Madrid and Barcelona.

  • It's not a Spanish development, per se; this will be a development where the primary market is all of Europe.

  • Western Europe, the former Warsaw Pact countries, western former Soviet Union countries, even into Moscow and St.

  • Petersburg, down to the Middle East, Turkey with 85 million people, and North Africa.

  • Nobody's talked about North Africa.

  • There's a lot of have's there and there are far more have-not's, so we hope that North Africa will help to fatten up the market there, but it's for 700 million, 800 million people (inaudible), so it's not just Spain, and we're moving forward on that.

  • We're not ready to break ground.

  • We don't have the grants and incentives finalized yet, but we're in heavy discussion.

  • - Analyst

  • And, as far as Asia goes, Taiwan doesn't have the transportation system that you need?

  • That just doesn't work?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Taiwan, so far as we know about Taiwan, Taiwan is still considering the islands in the Taiwan Strait or based upon my age, we used to call it the Formosa Strait.

  • I'm not sure we want to go to Kinmen or Tibatsu.

  • Prudence would have us look for some sort of assurance from the Chinese government that they'll keep the [Bezaflow] open, and since Taiwan is not yet a special administrative region, SAR, I'm not sure what the attitude will be from China in keeping the visa spigot open, so without some sort of assurance it would be a tough decision to make vis-a-vis the islands.

  • We're advocating keeping it on the Taiwan mainland, although there's only 24 million people there, it will be a phenomenal, very, very self-supporting IR in Taipei or Kuching.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • That's great.

  • How about Massachusetts and Florida?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • We're still looking at those.

  • If Massachusetts allows 3 full casinos, Rhode Island is considering converting 2 slot parlors into full-fledged casinos.

  • The Mashantucket Pequot and the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut is still there.

  • It all depends on where they allow them.

  • I think with 3, there might be too small of a market up there, so may not justify the kind of money that we'll have to spend to show our best, to flex our muscles the best.

  • Florida, it all depends.

  • It's still up in the air.

  • A subcommittee failed to pass it or a committee failed to pass it, and I think it's being put over to next year.

  • And, the same thing in Texas.

  • We don't have any approval yet in either Texas, Florida, or Massachusetts, but we're keeping a close eye on that.

  • The big, big activity -- I think the United States is getting too diluted in terms of too many casinos and too many states.

  • I remember the days when there were too few casinos in too few state; now the pendulum has swung the other way.

  • There are too many casinos in too many places, too many Racinos with [clots] and the possibility of Internet gaming that could potentially have a negative impact on the brick and mortar casinos.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks, Sheldon.

  • I look forward to your next big project.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Thank you.

  • We do.

  • We're very excited about.

  • We're gearing up.

  • We're staffing to do this project in Spain.

  • - Analyst

  • And then, the last question would be, again, I might have missed you answering this, the apartment sales in Macau?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Again, we don't have anything final.

  • We're leaning upon what the Macau government wants to do.

  • I'm sorry, we're not leaning on them, we're relying upon them, we're not doing anything to -- we're not taking any steps except to tell them how good it's going to be.

  • Again, I hate to repeat it, but we have reason to believe that the possibility of approval may be closer than further.

  • - Analyst

  • Good, I look forward to it.

  • Thanks, Sheldon.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Next time you should be first.

  • You always were first, Larry, when you had to press the star button or whatever.

  • Hopefully, you get back to that.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.

  • - Analyst

  • I guess I just wanted to go back to an earlier question by Mark Strawn, who talked about the impact of -- I think he was trying to get to in Vegas that maybe the cash customer activity and the decrease in promotional activity may have impacted the hold in some way in that market.

  • And then on Singapore, similarly, on the hold percentage, is it that Resorts World, as you said, is buying business?

  • Is that impacting your hold because it's reducing the length of play?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Steve, it's Rob Goldstein.

  • In Las Vegas, there's absolutely no impact on the hold percentage; we just have a lot of -- a wonderful amount of Asian business and they just kept winning.

  • It's just that simple.

  • Not more to be said as far as promotional activity; it has no impact whatsoever.

  • As far as Singapore what RWS does, doesn't impact our hold percentage at all as far as our business.

  • We didn't hold (inaudible) lucky.

  • We missed by points.

  • It's not hugely significant, it obviously impacts EBITDA, but again, there's no impact whatsoever on RWS activities on our hold percentage.

  • We have lots of business.

  • We played many hours.

  • One of the great benefits of the Asian customer is they tend to stay and play a long time.

  • They just stayed and played and stayed lucky.

  • That's a simple fact in Las Vegas as well as in Singapore.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • It's the principal of the law of averages that the hold percentage is a matter of luck.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • One thing you should know, we've been doing this for Las Vegas for better than a decade.

  • Our cumulative hold percentage in Las Vegas on Asian baccarat play exceeds 27%, so if you're patient, sometimes you play lucky, and sometimes you don't.

  • At the end of the day, we're pretty confident with the volumes in Singapore and the volumes in this Company, it's pretty obvious that at the end of the day it will work out just fine.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • We cut back on the comps at the slot end of the market by raising the threshold.

  • We haven't eliminated the comps.

  • The thresholds for people who qualify for the comps were too low, so I raise them up to the point where they're profitable now, where their profitability was questionable before, but the percentage of hold doesn't impact the slot hold.

  • It impacts the table game hold.

  • So, the comps, or the increase, the decrease in the allowance for comps doesn't have any effect whatsoever on the hold number.

  • Besides, hold can be only -- hold can only be adjusted by luck, by the law of averages.

  • That's all.

  • There's no other way.

  • If there was any other way to increase the hold, believe me, we'd be out there chasing it.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, but Sheldon, it's also length of play, as you've pointed out over the years in the past, and your competitors have pointed out, so that's why I'm asking, is either one of these activities reducing the length of play, and I guess the answer it's not.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • No, absolutely not.

  • There's no way that we would cut back on comps with the potential for somebody going to play a long time or short tame or with the threshold of probability of theoretical win is.

  • - Analyst

  • But they might go to another casino if you're not offering them the same amount of --

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • No, no, we're offering the same.

  • The point, Steve, is that we went down too far on the threshold.

  • That's all there is to it.

  • It was almost completely on the slot side and not on the tables.

  • - Analyst

  • Steve, this is all call is all baccarat driven.

  • We have no comp issues in the high end at all.

  • The Asian customer who comes to Las Vegas didn't suffer at all as far as any decisions (inaudible).

  • It's not impactful; it's not even related.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • The big decisions on comps to the Asian baccarat player is did they get a 5,000 square foot suite or a 9,000-square-foot suite.

  • (Laughter).

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Or did they get the (inaudible) 82 or Rothschild 82.

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • Well said.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from line of Cameron McKnight with Buckingham.

  • - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

  • How are you?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Good, how are you?

  • - Analyst

  • Good.

  • Just very briefly on Singapore, Sheldon, the mass market trends that were evident in the result I thought were pretty strong with mass revenues today up 7% sequentially.

  • Can you give us some brief thoughts on the depth of that market and whether you're finished penetrating the mass market there or you think the market overall has got more to run?

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Mike is saying that he got some figures that only 3.-some % (multiple speakers).

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • You're talking the market in general?

  • - Analyst

  • Singapore mass market?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • But you're not saying Singapore, you're saying the Singapore market for us only?

  • The numbers are staggering.

  • If you look at the first full quarter, which is Q3 2010, we -- in the slots, we won about $79.5 million then we jumped to $96.7 million, we jumped at $108 million.

  • Can we get to $120 something next quarter?

  • I believe we can.

  • I believe this is going to keep going.

  • The penetration that in market we don't know, because we don't know how big that market can get to, but I think it's safe to say, talking to Andrew and Mark and the guys who run that business every day, we have total confidence that the growth is ahead of us.

  • Is it going to be 5%, 6% per quarter, 8%, 9% per quarter?

  • I don't know, but the growth isn't over.

  • On the mass table side, it's even more compelling there in terms of we're seeing -- the growth tends to be both Singaporeans and visitors.

  • As that's building, it gathers more strength it becomes the preferred place, the place we want to go to.

  • I think our table business will continue to ramp.

  • The good news is the hold percentage pays very fat, probably in the 22%, 23% range because the comment earlier in Steve's call, they play an awful long time, they don't leave the table, the appetite for extra strategy is very, very small versus the American customer, so I think the table business is going to ramp up.

  • Again, does it grow to -- cumulatively we believe the market can grow easily we can see 1.8, 1.9 next year as a cumulative mass, slot and table.

  • (Inaudible).

  • That's my personal belief.

  • It can grow to 1.8, 1.9 next year in 2012.

  • I don't think it slows down.

  • And if anything, as you see Singapore visitation, which is off the chart, 26%, 28% would have been at this year that visitation, and right in the heart of the Tang in the marina district, we've got this wonderful building, we've got (inaudible), the Disney show, the retail is superb, the restaurants are spectacular.

  • So, why wouldn't we keep getting our fair share?

  • (Inaudible).

  • I think we're going to dominate the mass table and slot market for a long time, and we're very fortunate to be there.

  • It's a wonderful problem to have.

  • - Analyst

  • Fantastic.

  • And, one final follow-up, if I may.

  • Rob, what was the -- can you talk to the percentage of table drop in Vegas that was accounted for by high end baccarat play in the quarter?

  • - EVP, President The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas

  • We ran roughly -- our business breaks out, on the call we talked about how to break it out.

  • About $280 million roughly of our drop was baccarat driven; of that 90% plus Asian play.

  • We're an Asian house, the baccarat business here, as are the better hotels in town.

  • We tend to get more than our fair share in terms of -- because of our presence in Asia.

  • It's so simple.

  • Sometimes you play lucky.

  • You watch, you listen to the win call, you played very lucky.

  • It was great.

  • L31's a majority that's driven by high end baccarat and we didn't play lucky.

  • But, we had the business.

  • When it's all said and done, we'll hold our 27%, 26%, 28% on that segment.

  • I'm not the least bit concerned, and nor should you be.

  • - Analyst

  • Fabulous.

  • Thanks very much.

  • Operator

  • We have reached the allotted time for questions.

  • I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

  • - Chairman and CEO

  • Well, the only thing I can say -- this is Sheldon.

  • The only thing I can say is that we're extremely excited about being the most successful company in the history of lodging, hospitality, gaming industry, that the expectations that we'll hit $3 billion plus in EBITDA this year, and some people are saying that we might hit -- some of the analysts are projecting we'll hit $4 billion.

  • I can't make any comment about in 2012.

  • I won't make any comment about that, but I will say that we feel quite confident that the $3 billion mark will be breached.

  • We'll expect to go somewhat over that, and again, without providing guidance, we're very optimistic.

  • One month of low hold doesn't make a year, but think about having the entire Las Vegas strip resident in two casinos and we split that up.

  • When the Singapore government rightfully finishes investigation about junket reps, we'll see how that comes out.

  • In the meantime, we're being very conservative, but we earned $1 billion dollars in EBITDA in our first 12 months, andI want to remind some of you guys that some of you were projecting we were going to make $300 million.

  • I think the average of the consensus was about $500 million, so we made $1 billion while we still weren't ramped up, and there isn't anything in future that anybody can see that will cause a diminution of rate of go.

  • So, we're very happy about it, and I want to thank everybody for their vote of confidence in us, and we look forward to the current quarter giving you an even more profitable quarter.

  • So, thank you for calling, and that's the end of the call.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

  • You may now disconnect.