Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the lululemon athletica Q3 2013 results conference call.

At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time.

(Operator Instructions).

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Therese Hayes.

Ma'am, you may begin.

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us on our third-quarter 2013 conference call.

A copy of today's press release is available on the IR section of our website or furnished on Form 8-K with the SEC and available on the Commission's website.

Shortly after we end this morning a recording of today's call will be available as a replay for 30 days, also available on the website.

Hosting our call today is John Currie, our CFO.

Christine sends you her very best wishes.

With the announcement of Laurent Potdevin as our new CEO she is now focusing on transitioning him into the role and will not be joining us on the call this morning.

We would like to remind everyone that statements contained on this call which are not historical facts may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the Company's filing with the SEC.

And with that I will turn the call over to John.

Thanks, Therese.

Let me start by saying on behalf of the lululemon team that we will miss Christine both personally and professionally and we wish her all the best.

Six months ago, in addition to initiating the search for our next CEO, we were also actively looking to fill three senior vacancies on our management team, all in the crucial product area.

Since then we have successfully filled each of these roles -- Jennifer Battersby in the position of SVP Product Operations; Steve Berube as SVP Logistics & Distribution; and more recently Tara Poseley joined us as our Chief Product Officer.

Now with the addition of Laurent Potdevin as our new CEO, as we announced on Tuesday, going forward we have in place the full management team needed to strengthen our foundation and capitalize on our growth opportunities.

The third-quarter went pretty much as we had planned and guided.

We started the quarter running at a low single-digit comp rate as delivery issues caused us to keep summer goods on our floors through August when we normally would've set our fall product.

The Black Luon Never Out program in bottoms drove sales in August and September and particularly in our tight silhouettes in both solid and patterns as our guests loved our technical seamless fabric for yoga in both tops and bottoms.

The quarter got progressively better and October was the strongest month.

In our continued rollout of our international infrastructure we opened two more showrooms in Asia in the third quarter, one in Hong Kong and one in Singapore, to bring us to a total of five in Asia.

We also opened two more showrooms in Europe, both in Germany, for a total of seven in Europe at the end of the quarter including the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.

We have plans to open three more international showrooms in the fourth quarter, one in Asia and two in Europe.

And we're still on track to open our first store in Europe in the Covent Garden area of London in late Q1 of 2014.

We came into the holiday season better equipped to handle high traffic volumes during peak periods with handheld POS units for line busting.

In our high-volume stores we rolled out mobile e-commerce devices to draw on e-commerce inventory when the store is out of a guest's size or color.

Our pricing architecture was also improved over last holiday season with a better assortment of gift giving items and key price point items such as our cozy up style jackets in the $100 range.

We also continue to get very positive feedback from our guests on the new Full-On Luon which is now available in all type bottom styles.

Having said this, we have experienced a soft start to the fourth quarter.

As we discussed on our last call, the supply chain team that we bolstered with new hires this year is now going through our entire sourcing process and putting in place new procedures to improve on-time delivery and quality control.

While these improvements are being put in place for future seasons, for now we have enhanced our back end quality control filters at the distribution centers to ensure faulty product does not make it to our stores and the result is that some styles have been rejected by our quality filters and not released to stores.

The late product deliveries that impacted Q3 have also continued, resulting in uneven product flow and in some cases cancellation of purchase orders.

We know that any lost sales incurred during the fourth quarter resulting from this increased focus on quality is a smart investment for the long-term health of the business.

In addition, we are seeing a slowdown in traffic to our stores.

Our best guess is that this is a result of a combination of causes.

There is a difficult macro retail backdrop with all retailers experiencing lower traffic, but it would be naive to think that the Company specific issues that we have been dealing with this year, from the Luon setback to the recent negative PR issues, have not also had some impact.

The combination of traffic and product issues resulted in a lower expectation for fourth-quarter guidance.

Now let me give you some details on the third quarter and then I will come back and provide more specifics on the outlook for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2013.

So for the third quarter total net revenue rose 20% to $379.9 million from $316.5 million in the third quarter of 2012.

The increase in revenue was driven by comparable store sales growth of 5% on a constant dollar basis; the addition of 46 net new corporate owned stores since Q3 of 2012, 37 new stores in the United States, 2 stores in Canada, 4 stores in Australia-New Zealand, and 3 ivivva stores.

And direct to consumer sales, which increased by 37.3% or $16.8 million.

If we included e-commerce as a store in our comp calculations the combined comp would be reported as 11% on a constant dollar basis.

These were offset with the impact of a lower Canadian and Australian dollar, which had the effect of decreasing reported revenues by 7.5% -- or sorry, $7.5 million or 2%.

During the quarter we opened 17 net new lululemon stores in the US, 2 in Australia-New Zealand and 2 ivivva stores.

We ended the quarter with 247 total stores versus 201 a year ago.

There are 184 stores in our comp base, 38 of those in Canada, 117 in the United States, 21 in Australia-New Zealand and 8 ivivva.

Our new store productivity also remained approximately $1,100 per square foot which contributed positively to the third-quarter performance.

At the end of the quarter we operated 63 showrooms which include 5 in Asia and 7 in Europe and 12 ivivva locations.

Corporate owned stores represented 76.5% of total revenue or $290.7 million versus 79.6% or $252 million in the third quarter of last year.

Revenues from our direct to consumer channel totaled $62 million, or 16.3% of total revenue, versus $45.1 million, or 14.3% of total revenue in the third quarter of last year.

Other revenue which includes wholesale, showrooms and outlets totaled $27.3 million or 7.2% of revenue for the second quarter versus $19.4 million or 6.1% of revenue in the third quarter of last year.

Gross profit in the third quarter was $204.6 million or 53.9% of net revenue compared with $175.3 million or 55.4% of net revenue in Q3 2012.

The factors which contributed to this 150 basis point decrease in gross margin were a product margin decline of 220 basis points, due primarily to higher airfreight spend to improve product flow, product mix and an increase in our inventory reserves, offset with 30 basis points of leverage from occupancy and depreciation and 40 basis points of leverage and product and supply chain team costs due primarily to timing of spend.

SG&A expenses were $112.3 million or 29.6% of net revenue compared with $94.7 million or 29.9% of net revenue for the same period last year.

The increase is due to an increase in store labor and operating expenses associated with new stores, showrooms and outlets as well as increases at existing locations due to higher sales volumes; increased variable operating costs associated with our e-commerce business consistent with the 37% year-over-year growth in this channel; and increases in expenses at our store support center including salaries, administrative expenses, professional fees, management incentive and stock-based compensation associated with the growth of our business.

These increases were offset with a weaker Canadian and Australian dollar which decreased reported SG&A by $2.3 million or 2%.

In addition, we incurred a $1.8 million foreign-exchange gain in our operating subsidiaries.

As a percentage of revenue our third-quarter SG&A leveraged 30 basis points due primarily to the foreign-exchange impacts just discussed.

As a result operating income for the third quarter was $92.3 million or 24.3% of net revenue compared to $80.6 million or 25.5% of net revenue in Q3 2012.

Tax expense for the quarter was $27.7 million or a tax rate of 29.5% compared to $24.7 million or a tax rate of 30.1% in the third quarter of 2012.

Net income for the quarter was $66.1 million or $0.45 per diluted share.

This compares with net income of $57.3 million or $0.39 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2012.

Our weighted average diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were 146 million versus 145.7 million a year ago.

Capital expenditures were $27.9 million for the quarter related to new stores, renovations, IT and head office capital compared to $33 million in the third quarter last year.

Turning to our balance sheet highlights, we ended the quarter with $600.7 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $206.2 million or 25.2% higher than at the end of the third quarter of 2012, higher than our forward sales growth expectations but partly attributable to the timing of winter receipts compared to last year due to a shift in our buying calendar.

This now leads me to our outlook for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2013.

As I had discussed earlier, as a result of the supply chain issues, overall traffic trends and a weaker Canadian dollar we are revising our fourth-quarter guidance to a range of $535 million to $540 million of revenue from our prior quarter estimate of $565 million to $570 million.

Our guidance assumes a continuation of the weaker than expected performance that we have seen quarter to date.

Our sales guidance assumes a flat comparable store sales percentage increase on a constant dollar basis compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.

E-commerce is performing better than expected and including e-commerce our guidance for the fourth quarter would give an 8% combined comp.

This outlook assumes a Canadian dollar at $0.94 with the US dollar and 7 new store openings, 4 in the US, 1 in Canada, 1 in New Zealand and 1 ivivva.

We expect gross margin to be below last year and in the mid-50s range due to higher airfreight costs and the impact of foreign exchange due to a weaker Canadian dollar compared to last year.

We expect SG&A as a percentage of revenue to be consistent with the fourth quarter of 2012.

Investments made in the fourth quarter that deleverage on lower revenue offset with the true-up of our management incentive plan expenses given our revised projections.

Assuming a tax rate of 30% and 146 million diluted average shares outstanding, we expect diluted earnings per share in the quarter to be in the range of $0.78 to $0.80 per share.

For the full fiscal year 2013 we will open 43 net new corporate owned stores, which includes our ivivva locations.

We will also open 12 international showrooms this year.

We expect full year net revenue to therefore be in the range of $1.605 billion to $1.61 billion or growth of 17%.

We expect gross margin for the year to be between 53% and 54%.

We expect SG&A to deleverage as a percentage of revenue compared to 2012 due in part to lower revenue along with the investments we are making in the business to support our long-term growth.

As a result we expect our fiscal year diluted earnings per share to be approximately $1.94 to $1.96, this is based on 146 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding and it assumes an effective tax rate of 30%.

We expect capital expenditures to be between $100 million and $105 million for fiscal 2013 reflecting new store buildouts, renovation capital for existing stores, real estate purchases including our new Ohio distribution center, IT projects and other head office capital including expansion of our existing premises.

That concludes my prepared remarks and, as we turn it over to Q&A, I just want to mention that you might hear either Therese Hayes, who you know, or Chris Tham, our VP of Financial Planning & Analysis, who are here to help me with questions today.

So, operator, we can turn it over for questions.

(Operator Instructions).

Adrienne Tennant, Janney Capital.

And, Christine, if you are listening, thanks for everything and best of luck in the future.

John, my question really is on these ongoing delivery/quality issues, we are in the stores, we are noticing stock outs, both online and in-store on recently flowed product and then we are told that perhaps you won't get a replenishment for that, a lot of the jackets for the run -- cold weather run stuff.

And so, how does this impact Q1 as we turn into the new year?

Will we see a resolution of that as we go into Q1?

And if you can just talk about the -- just clarification on the -- did you say that if you had included DTC that you would be running an 8% comp?

And on that flat, do we need it to accelerate and get better?

Or is that kind of a pretty constant across the remainder of the quarter?

Thank you.

Okay, maybe I will take the second question first.

Yes, if e-commerce was included in our comp guidance it would be at an 8%.

The guidance does not require an improvement for the balance of the quarter, it reflects just an extension of the trend that we have been seeing.

In terms of stock outs that you are seeing in Q4, we are seeing great guest acceptance of some of our seasonal items that we haven't bought really deeply in which is typically what we do and you do see stock outs.

And when I talked about late product deliveries or product that has not been released to the stores, in some cases it is the seasonal assortment that is selling very well that is therefore impacting revenue.

As we get into Q1 and beyond, the improvements that are really underway with the new team on the supply chain side are a journey.

We are putting the processes in place and they will -- as each season progresses the improvements we are making are going to improve our execution.

But it is not all at once.

And so, as we go through next year you will see continued improvement in product flow.

Can you just give us the Canada/US comp split, please?

For Q3?

Yes.

Yes, Canada was just slightly negative, I think it rounded to minus 1%, US was high single-digits positive.

Okay, thank you.

Best of luck.

Camilo Lyon, Canaccord Genuity.

John, I was hoping you could give maybe just some historical perspective on how the fourth-quarter correlation with e-commerce and stores really trends into the holiday season?

Yes, I mean with all the other ups and downs, one of the things we are seeing that is positive is a shift towards e-commerce.

E-commerce has been very strong; in Q3 it was our highest penetration ever at 16.3%.

That is continuing and that is -- I think more and more our guest is shopping both channels and that is why I'm making a point of also talking about the combined comp because there is a shift to some extent from stores to e-commerce.

Okay, and then just with respect to the mills that you are on boarding, it seems like the second mill that was going through the on boarding phase here over the past couple months had started to produce product that was of high quality.

Could you just update us on the production capacity coming from those mills and are they starting to contribute to the better in-stock levels?

Or when -- if not when should we see that?

Yes, the second Luon supplier is fully on-stream, we are very pleased with the quality.

And so, they are helping both with quality and capacity.

And we are still on track to have a third Luon manufacturer on stream by spring of 2014.

And just lastly if I could follow up on that.

Could you just break up the impact between the supply chain disruptions and the slower traffic as it relates to the flat comp in the fourth quarter?

Is it a 50-50 split or is one the main driver over the other?

Yes, roughly I would say it is about one-third the product issues and two-thirds the traffic discussion.

Thank you.

Omar Saad, ISI Group.

John, wondering if you could maybe elaborate on or discuss further the PR issue impact that you had mentioned in your prepared remarks and what you think you are seeing from your store associates and the guests in the stores.

Well, I think anytime there is negative PR for a company there is an impact on the business.

And I'm not saying we can see a one-to-one correlation but, let's face it, we have had lots of PR issues this year, whether it is the Luon pull back or Christine's resignation.

And there is undoubtedly some impact on traffic and therefore on the business.

Our job is to make sure that that is a short-term impact by earning back the trust of the guest and that is what we are focused on, both in terms of quality and making sure we are connected with our communities.

And then -- thanks.

And then, I think you mentioned that October in the third quarter was the strongest month for the quarter.

But it seems like you have seen this sharp slowdown since then to start the fourth quarter.

Is there something specifically happening around that transition from October to November that is going on in the business?

Yes, not to get into weekly comps, November started somewhat slow, I think that might have been more product flow related.

We saw actually a very strong Black Friday Cyber Monday weekend and then dipped down again after that.

So again, it is really too early to diagnose trends, but that is what we have seen.

Edward Yruma, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Just really quickly on the weak traffic trend, does the guidance contemplate kind of a step-up in promotion, increase in marketing or things to kind of offset some of these weak traffic trends that you might be seeing for the balance of the holiday?

Thanks.

No, it does not.

I mentioned there is some increase in our inventory reserves to contemplate some level of additional markdowns since we are running a little bit behind.

But not terribly significant and no other strategic changes other than that.

Thanks so much.

Liz Dunn, Macquarie Capital.

Good morning, this is (inaudible) in for Liz.

Thanks for taking my question.

In light of the PR issues we are curious to know how you are measuring customer perception of the brand and how you are engaging with the customer beyond the apology video from last month.

Boy, it was really difficult to hear the question.

Could you maybe repeat it and speak louder?

Yes, this is (inaudible) in for Liz.

In light of the PR issues, we are curious to know how you are measuring customer perception of the brand and how you are engaging with the customer beyond the apology video from last month.

Okay.

We are conducting brand perception surveys, etc., and it is a little too early to talk about our conclusions from that.

In the very near term, as I said, the two things that we need to do are ensure that only the best quality product gets to the floor so that we don't disappoint the guest.

And reconnect with the guest.

And so, for example, we have instituted a program over the holiday called -- what did we call it, No Humbug, where we have allocated funds to each store to just surprise and delight the guest in whatever creative way they want to.

It is not discounts but just sending somebody home to visit their parents for Christmas or whatever else they come up with.

Just random acts of kindness because that is who we are and we're just trying to connect with the communities again.

Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

John, where are you in the investment cycle both for sourcing and international rollout?

And should we see a step-up in the SG&A rate next year to support these two investments?

Yes, in terms of sourcing, as I said, it is a journey.

A lot of it is headcount, but there are significant system investments that we have been incurring for the last -- certainly over the last year to 18 months.

And those will continue over the next couple of years anyway.

So we are sort of midway through that step-up in investment.

And also international, in 2013 we put in place the core teams in each of Asia and Europe, we have done a lot of the infrastructure build.

And what you will start to see in 2014, as we open up more showrooms and even move to stores in some locations, you will see some additional SG&A drag as we get up to critical mass in those markets.

I think in 2013 international was a net negative of sort of mid single-digits and it will be something higher than that in 2014.

And depending on the pace of rollout, will turn positive once we have enough stores and have critical mass in those markets.

Thank you.

Oliver Chen, Citigroup.

I had a question on the nature of the current environment with respect to the promotions in the marketplace.

Is that something that is impacting your business?

And is there a view on how your merchandise margins may be in fourth quarter?

Also, if you could just comment briefly on your inventory and the current status of it and how we should expect the growth rate next quarter if you are comfortable with the level of freshness that is in the composition now?

Thank you.

Okay.

Well, when I talk about the macro retail environment, it is not just general traffic in the malls, but it is also how promotional is everybody else.

And it is a promotional season as it looks so far.

And we have dealt with that before.

We are not promotional.

But at some point, if everyone else is on sale, it does impact our performance.

And that is the environment that we are living in this holiday season as we have several other holiday seasons.

I am sorry, can you repeat the second question?

The second question is just about the inventory composition and where the growth rate of inventory [land] at the end of fourth quarter and if the current status of the inventory freshness is okay with you relative to the sell-throughs?

Okay.

Of course inventory levels at the end of the fourth quarter are going to depend on how the holiday season turns out.

Again, we are running a little below plan so our inventory levels will likely be a little bit high and we will be sending some product to the outlets.

In terms of composition, I guess the good thing is a lot of our call it heavy inventory is in our core styles, which we typically don't mark down and aren't season specific.

So that will limit the amount of promotional activity.

In terms of freshness, again, holiday tends to be very different than what we will be looking at in Q1.

As we said earlier, we have got some great seasonal styles that have resonated with guests and have flown off the shelves and we are out of stock.

When that is the case we would love to have had more of some of those.

But at the same time we don't want to find ourselves overstocked in those items that are seasonal.

Do you have any flexibility to become more strategically promotional in order to kind of offset what you are seeing versus competitors?

Or is there anything that can be done with respect to that so that you can garner your fair share of traffic?

Yes, I mean that gets to be a much longer conversation.

But certainly we can be flexible as it comes to clearance and markdowns.

Again, since a lot of our heavy inventory, as I said, is core, that may not be much of an issue but we have been creative in the past, we've done pop-up stores, we have done warehouse sales, we will do those things again and those should be adequate to, once again, clear the aged inventory.

Jennifer Black, Jennifer Black & Associates.

I just have a couple questions.

We have noticed that some of your price points appear to be reaching new highs and I wondered if you could talk about the customer's response and do you feel you have pushed price points too high in this economy?

And then my second question is, have you considered a loyalty program with the incredible growth that you've experienced to get the word out quicker to your most loyal customers on new products and product issues?

And -- so those are my questions.

Okay, in terms of price points too high.

You are probably looking at some of the seasonal items outerwear where typically the price point is higher.

We think we have hit a better balance this year.

Remember last year we had some of the fluff and other outerwear styles had been I think priced too high and we brought them down.

That was more of an issue last year than what we're seeing this year.

And I don't think we've pushed the price point beyond where our guest is comfortable especially in those special items.

In terms of a loyalty program, that is not in our near-term strategy.

Having said that, with digital and mobile becoming more and more important I think our strategy is to connect with the guest and let them know when new products are dropping.

I think there are lots of opportunities to improve our execution there in the future that may or may not look like a typical loyalty program.

But definitely we are looking at how we can evolve in that area.

Brian Tunick, JPMorgan.

Hi, yes, this is Kate on for Brian.

Just a quick question.

So in order -- in terms of the slowdown in traffic are you feeling it more in terms of new customer adoption or is it existing customers that aren't coming back to the brand?

Just your sense in terms of who is taking out the brand and who is not.

And then also if you could just speak to any changes that you are seeing in the competitive environment particularly as more retailers enter the athletic and performance wear category?

Thank you.

Sorry, I can't remember the first question already.

Can you please repeat the first question?

Sure.

Is it -- in terms of the slowdown in traffic do you sense it is more in terms of new customer adoption that is slowing or is it more so existing customers that aren't coming back?

I think it is too early to have a diagnostic on that.

We are finding, as I said, the seasonal items, the unique items are selling; typically that is more our repeat customer or guest so that might indicate that she is continuing to come back, selling less core.

So that may indicate less new guests, but again it is really too early in the holiday season to do that diagnostic.

Okay.

And then just what you are seeing in terms of the competitive environment?

Yes, as I have said repeatedly there is no one competitor that we are looking at that is opening stores that is having a particularly significant impact, but the crowded landscape of course makes it more difficult to stand out -- our focus task is on making sure that our product offering is the best and our in-store experience is the best so we continue to stand out from that crowded field of competition.

Lindsay Drucker Mann, Goldman Sachs.

Just two quick questions.

You talked about the difference between the US and the Canadian comp.

I was just curious if you could dig in a bit on the drivers within each market, whether you saw similar impact from traffic or product issues or AURs or whatever the composition might be within the US versus Canada or if those markets were different?

And then secondly, just to approach Lorraine's question in a different light.

You talked about the supply chain story for you guys being a journey.

As you have moved along do you feel as if you have all the things that you need to tackle under good control or are you considering perhaps a much -- a more material step-up in the amount of investment you will need in order to get the systems right?

Thanks.

Okay.

In terms of Canada and the US, of course there are still very different levels of maturity in the two markets.

Canada is fully built out and a very mature market, whereas the US, we are approaching two-thirds built out and still lots of brand awareness improvement ahead of us.

And in spite of that, as we have seen the slowdown, they have been in proportion to each other.

So if Canada is X percent below plan, the US is the same level below plan.

So that indicates to me that it is the product flow issues that are across the board and to some extent macro issues.

It tells me that it is less competition than those factors because in the US there are more -- more people kind of look like us than we have in Canada.

So I do think it is interesting that the softness is consistent across both countries.

In terms of the supply chain, there is a step up required that is what we have been incurring this year and we will continue to step up next year and it is consistent with -- there is no change in our plan recently.

Going back to March and even before when we were bolstering our supply chain teams and looking at the processes we knew that there would be a step-up in our SG&A related to those efforts and it is several million, again a lot of that is in our run rate today and there will be some step-up next year.

Thanks.

Kimberly Greenberger, Morgan Stanley.

John, I am wondering, the product quality issues have been there since March.

And if I heard you correctly earlier, it sounds like November was really the timeframe that you started to see a dislocation in the traffic trends into your stores.

I am wondering if you have any ideas or if you have received any feedback from your stores or guests on what the driver of that might be?

Do you think there is any causality between Chip's interview and that fall off in traffic?

And then as you look out into 2014 and 2015, is there a way to help us understand or dimensionalize the incremental spend or the incremental investments that you feel like you need to make in the supply chain and product quality in order to make sure that there is consistent high quality brand standard product that is flowing to the stores?

Thanks.

Okay, as I said before, whenever there is negative PR it is reasonable to assume that there is an impact on the business.

I wouldn't say we have specific feedback from the stores that their lower traffic is related to either Chip's comments or quality concerns.

But I do think it's -- as I said, it is realistic to assume that when there is negative press that there is an impact on the business and that is -- I do think that has impacted us in November and early December.

And again, we are focused on reversing that trend.

In terms of incremental investment in the supply chain, again that is all underway.

I think our run rate of spend related to how we are changing the processes and beefing up the teams, it is probably $10 million or so annually of operating spend.

And again, a lot of that is in our run rate for Q3 and Q4 and will continue and ramp up some as we go into 2014 and 2015.

Thanks so much.

Faye Landes, Cowen and Company.

Hi, good morning, this is Tal Lev for Faye, thanks for taking my question.

Christine, if you are listening, we are sad to see you go.

So first, was or is traffic negative in Q3 or early in Q3 or so far in November?

And then we frankly don't understand why guidance is for flat in-store comps if October and Thanksgiving were strong, especially given the year-ago compare that is so much easier sequentially.

It just seems very draconian.

And then finally housekeeping, what was the percentage of the men's business in the quarter?

Okay, no.

In Q3, traffic was not negative.

The comp that we had was driven primarily by positive traffic, just not as positive as we are used to seeing traffic.

And Q4 to date is kind of in line with the comp.

It is pretty flat.

And again, that is why the guidance is for a flat comp.

And again, as I mentioned but maybe didn't highlight, the other thing in terms of the store comp is we do see a shift towards e-commerce.

And it is increasingly relevant, I think, to think about our comp as both stores and e-commerce.

And as I said, the combined comp guidance for Q4 is 8%.

Men's in Q3, Chris, do you have that, the men's penetration?

Yes, we booked 13.5% penetration.

Yes.

So men's continues to improve penetration.

If we broke out the men's comp, I think it is in the 20%s, so men's continues to improve; better acceptance as we are improving and expanding the men's product line.

So that is -- the men's opportunity is still a real focus for us in the next year.

Can you shed some light on what is driving the 20%s comp in men, what product or area?

I think at this point it really is better product.

I think we have hit our stride in terms of the design product team, and we are introducing new items, new colors, so that there is more selection for the male guests than what they have seen in the past.

And that will continue to be a driver, as well as we do have a pretty significant men's team that we have built up that is focusing on the men's business beyond just the product piece of that; in terms of brand and marketing and how do we connect with the male guest who is, of course, very different than the female guest.

And I think, again, as we go into 2014 and beyond, that will also drive the opportunity that we see in the men's side of the business.

Sharon Zackfia, William Blair.

So a couple of quick questions.

Canada, I mean obviously it has been slightly negative for I think a little over a year now.

Can you confirm if you include e-commerce whether Canada has been comping positively with ECOM all this time?

Yes, it has.

As I said, the stores have been at very high productivity, sometimes flat, sometimes slightly up and sometimes slightly down.

But e-commerce has continued to extend our reach in the Canadian market and it has been -- the combined I believe has been positive every quarter.

Okay.

And then a question on 2014 and then coming back to the fourth quarter.

I guess on 2014, I know six months ago there was all this conversation about product flow and different ways to optimize that in 2014, segmenting by climate and doing more strategic markdown optimization and so on.

I am wondering given the emphasis on product quality control whether that is getting pushed back further now into 2015 or whether that is still on the docket for 2014.

There is a pretty significant systems implementation project related to that that we are kick starting in 2014.

So the IT team and the business owners related to that are going to be busy on that in 2014.

But you won't see it impacting the way we operate until 2015.

And then lastly on the fourth quarter and your outlook.

I mean, it sounded as if some of the initiatives you have implemented like mobile POS and so on have really helped during times of high traffic, like Black Friday weekend.

Last year it seemed as if maybe your quarter slowed somewhat towards Christmas as you ran into out of stocks and some challenges handling that traffic.

I mean, as you think about what you saw over Black Friday weekend, I mean is there -- am I too optimistic to think there is a positive wildcard as you get into those 10 days around Christmas where you have that really high traffic volume?

Or is the product flow really going to negate the potential positives of the mobile POS and so on?

Well, I guess a couple of things.

I mean this is a tough time to be giving guidance because those super busy days leading up to Christmas are still ahead of us.

So we do expect obviously a significant step up in traffic.

And because of the mobile POS, etc., we are better equipped to handle those high-volume days.

And to your point, I think that did help on Black Friday and wherever else we've had a spike.

But I wouldn't get carried away in terms of upside expectations.

And to your point, last year it was actually a slow ramp and then kind of a spike just before Christmas.

So I think that is likely similar to what we are expecting to see this year.

Matt McClintock, Barclays.

I was wondering if you can talk about the e-commerce business outside of US and Canada.

Is that a meaningful size yet?

And how does this business accelerate once you launch a regional website?

Lastly, are you learning anything from this business that is changing your views towards countries that you want to prioritize for expansion?

Thanks.

Okay, actually international e-commerce really -- really we are looking at it as ramping up in conjunction with our bricks and mortar presence.

Because we don't do mass advertising, similar to what we saw in the US, until we have a physical presence there really is very little brand awareness.

And therefore the e-commerce business is not significant until we make some progress on our physical presence.

So right now, for example, if you look at Europe, we have seven showrooms -- still not a significant physical presence.

We have an EU specific e-commerce site and one for the UK.

And they are growing significantly as those showrooms seed the markets and improve our brand awareness.

But a couple of things -- until we have stores that will still be quite limited.

And the other aspect is with only a handful of showrooms and e-commerce the volumes are low and therefore the inventory levels that we can keep in Europe have to be fairly focused on the core and not too deep.

And so, the guest on international e-commerce sites is still at a point where they don't have the full product assortment.

So the key is get enough critical mass, both moving to stores and e-commerce, so that we can offer the full assortment to those guests.

And that is when we expect to see international e-commerce becoming more significant.

For the time being it is where we expect it to be, but it is not a meaningful number in the current revenue targets.

Sam Poser, Sterne, Agee.

I have a couple questions.

Number one, what percent of the quarter is in the books thus far in your current -- where we are as far as revenue?

And number two, the SG&A grew at just under 19% in the fourth quarter, which was a significant deceleration of absolute dollar growth.

How should we think about that both in Q4 and looking into next year?

Okay, Chris is -- we are looking at a calculator on your first question.

About a third of the quarter has already been booked so far.

And then in terms of the lower than maybe what you expected SG&A growth, I think you have to take into account the currency impact in that since most of our SG&A is in the office here in Vancouver in Canadian dollars.

As we translate to US dollars that actually reduces the reported SG&A.

And as well in Q3, as I mentioned, there was a foreign-exchange gain that offsets SG&A.

I think when you normalize for those items the rate of SG&A growth is probably closer to what you would've expected.

Mark Altschwager, Robert W. Baird.

John, you've talked a lot about the SG&A side of things.

I was just hoping higher level how do you feel about the 25% longer-term margin target?

And I know you will be cycling some gross margin headwinds next year, so maybe just help us understand the puts and takes as you think about the margin goals.

Yes.

Long-term there continues to be no reason to expect that our margin profile would be different than what I have been talking about to the market, 55% gross margin, 25% operating margin.

And that is an offset of positive leverage on the core business offset by investments to continue to build the foundation and the investment, sort of early stage investment in international growth.

So long-term nothing in my mind has changed in that regard.

In the very near term if we see the traffic trends take longer to get back to historical levels of increase, that could cause some short-term compression on margins especially if there is initiatives to put in place to drive that traffic back.

But when I talk about long-term targets of 25%, there will be periods where we are higher and periods where we are lower depending on investments that we have to make and then harvesting those investments.

But longer-term no change in our view on that.

Okay, thanks.

And then just following up real quick on the Q4, I think one of the headwinds faced last year was just underpositioning on some of the giftable items, lower priced items.

Could you talk about how you are positioned this year and the early trends you are seeing from that?

Yes.

I think we have done a better job this year in acknowledging that this is actually a gift giving season.

So there are lots of lower-priced items, some great mitts, etc.

that are doing very well.

And not just those lower-priced items but a better selection in the key gift giving range plus or minus around $100.

That is where there was a real void in our pricing architecture last year.

So in that regard I think we have done a better job this year.

Pamela Quintiliano, SunTrust.

Just a few.

Clarification, 3Q, how big an impact were the product issues in 3Q within the framework of what you were talking about with 4Q guidance?

And then, I know there have been a lot of questions just surrounding the sourcing improvements, but any granularity at all on timing even if it is what product we should see improvements with first and just how we should think about it into next year?

And then just last, any updates on ivivva?

Thank you.

Q3 impact on product issues, I mean when I -- I think when I talked about Q4 it was really the breakdown between traffic and product issues.

I think the traffic piece of that was less of a factor in Q3.

So the product piece in Q3 actually maybe a little bit higher because remember we had very late deliveries of fall product that had a significant impact on August in particular as we had the summer product still on the floor through August when we should have had the fall product on there.

So, I would say that piece was more significant in Q3 than what we are seeing in Q4.

Sourcing improvement -- sorry, can you repeat that part of it?

One moment.

Hello.

I am sorry, I couldn't remember your second question on sourcing.

No, they had me on mute, sorry.

Just any commentary or granularity on when we should be seeing those improvements or what areas we should be seeing them in first, just how you are tackling that when we think about the progression of 2014?

Yes, I mean I wouldn't say it in this particular style mix or that one because they are across the board improvements on the processes that we employ with all mills, with all cut and sew factories.

Having said that, Luon is definitely our most complicated fabric and that is where our focus has been.

But I think we are already seeing improvements there with the second supplier and the third one coming on and also with our new 28 gauge Full-On Luon that the guest is absolutely loving.

But other than that I think it is an across the board initiative that impacts all of our fabrics and products.

Then lastly, ivivva -- sorry, I always kind of overlook ivivva because it is the little sister, but it is actually becoming a really significant growth driver as we look forward.

In the quarter I believe the ivivva comp was 17%, they are now at productivity of getting pretty close to $900 a foot.

So we are looking to increase our store rollout in ivivva for next year and I will include that in my guidance on the next call.

Great, thanks so much.

And best of luck.

Janet Kloppenburg, JJK Research.

Congrats on a good third quarter.

I wanted to just ask John, has the direct business accelerated from the third quarter to the fourth quarter?

And perhaps if you could explain why the issues that are affecting the stores may not be affecting the direct side of the business?

And I think you said your inventories are a little bit high, I was wondering if there was a way to feed the direct business with the store inventory so that perhaps the inventory -- perhaps the markdown levels in the store may not be as high as they might be if comps continue to be flat?

And lastly on the quality control issues where you are rejecting product.

How long do you think that will last, John?

Is this something you can look out to and forecast how long this may cause imbalances in your assortment?

Thank you.

Okay, well that one question, let's see.

E-commerce, yes, in fact, it was strong in Q3 and we have seen it even stronger in Q4, both in terms of year-over-year growth rate and penetration.

So, yes, really excited about what we are seeing there.

Your question why is e-commerce not impacted as the stores are.

In spite of the strength of e-commerce I think there is a similar impact, it is just that it has got such a strong growth trajectory that it is just a lower positive as opposed to flatter negative.

If we do have excess inventory that was expected to be allocated to stores, absolutely, we have the ability to ship that to e-commerce.

We do buy for e-commerce as a store, but since we do the fulfillment from our own distribution centers it is relatively easy to shift inventory that was designated for stores into the e-commerce channel.

And the impact of quality controls, as I said, this is a journey, I feel great about the team we have in place and the progress we are making.

But the quality controls that we are evolving to are very much front end loaded.

They are having people and processes at the mills as the fabric is being made and then checks and balances as we go through the cut and sew process, etc.

At a minimum improvements can only affect the seasons that are just now being planned.

In the meantime, as I said, we are focusing on quality control at the back end until those processes are affecting the current season.

So quality control is very much focused on at the DC making sure that product that has already been delivered, if there are defects that we are not releasing that to the stores.

So at the store level we are dedicated to ensuring that you won't see quality issues.

But for some period of time if those exist they will be product not released to stores as opposed to there were never issues from the outset.

So again, as 2014 progresses we will get progressively better.

And by 2015 we -- we are not holding back on investment, etc., and hiring and by 2015 we should be seeing a much, much smoother supply chain operation.

Okay, that is all the time we have for this morning.

Thanks, everybody, for joining us on the call today.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

This does conclude today's program.

You may all disconnect.

Everyone have a wonderful day.