Landstar System Inc (LSTR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Landstar Systems, Inc. Year-end 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 Landstar Systems, Inc. 2023 年底收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

Joining us today from Landstar are Jim Gattoni, President and CEO; Jim Todd, Vice President and CFO; Joe Beacom, Vice President and Chief Safety and Operations Officer.

今天加入我們的是 Landstar 總裁兼執行長 Jim Gattoni；吉姆‧托德，副總裁兼財務長； Joe Beacom，副總裁兼首席安全和營運長。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Jim Gattoni. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆·加托尼先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Bill. Good morning, and welcome to Landstar's 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，比爾。早安，歡迎參加 Landstar 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, let me read the following statement. The following is a safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements made during this conference call that are not based on historical facts or forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我閱讀以下聲明。以下是根據《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》發表的安全港聲明。本次電話會議期間所做的聲明並非基於歷史事實或前瞻性聲明。

During this conference call, we may make statements that contain forward-looking information that relates to Landstar's business objectives, plans, strategies and expectations. Such information, by nature, is subject to uncertainties and risks included, but not limited to, the operational, financial and legal risk detailed in Landstar's Form 10-K for the 2022 fiscal year described in the section Risk Factors and other SEC filings from time to time. These risks and uncertainties could cause actual results or events to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Investors should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking information, and Landstar undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會發表包含與 Landstar 業務目標、計劃、策略和期望相關的前瞻性資訊的聲明。此類資訊本質上受到不確定性和風險的影響，包括但不限於Landstar 的2022 財年10-K 表格中詳細說明的營運、財務和法律風險，這些風險在風險因素部分和其他SEC 文件中描述。到時間了。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果或事件與歷史結果或預期結果有重大差異。投資者不應過度依賴此類前瞻性訊息，Landstar 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性資訊的義務。

The freight environment throughout the 2023 fourth quarter reflected soft demand and readily available truck capacity. These freight market conditions were consistent with what Landstar experienced during the first 3 quarters of 2023.

2023 年第四季的貨運環境反映出需求疲軟和可用的卡車運力。這些貨運市場狀況與 Landstar 在 2023 年前三個季度的經驗一致。

The 2023 fourth quarter also included an abnormally soft peak season by historical standards. Nevertheless, even with a weak peak season, Landstar performed mostly in line with the 2023 fourth quarter guidance we issued in our third quarter earnings release on October 25.

依照歷史標準，2023 年第四季的旺季也異常疲軟。儘管如此，即使旺季疲弱，Landstar 的表現基本上符合我們在 10 月 25 日發布的第三季財報中發布的 2023 年第四季指引。

We provided revenue guidance of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion. Actual revenue came in at $1.204 billion, about 2% below the low end of our guidance. We also issued earnings per share guidance of $1.60 to $1.70. Actual earnings per share in the 2023 fourth quarter was $1.62, slightly above the low end of the guidance.

我們提供的收入指引為 12.25 億美元至 12.75 億美元。實際收入為 12.04 億美元，比我們指導的下限低約 2%。我們也發布了 1.60 至 1.70 美元的每股盈餘指引。 2023 年第四季實際每股收益為 1.62 美元，略高於指導值的下限。

It is worth noting again that the 2023 performance continues to significantly outpace prepandemic levels. 2023 fourth quarter revenue was 21% over the 2019 fourth quarter revenue, and earnings per share exceeded the 2019 fourth quarter by approximately 28%.

再次值得注意的是，2023 年的表現持續大幅超過疫情前的水準。 2023年第四季營收較2019年第四季營收成長21%，每股盈餘較2019年第四季成長約28%。

Before diving into further detail on Landstar's performance in the 2023 fourth quarter, please note I will make mention of normal seasonal patterns or normal trends. For the purpose of today's conference call, normal seasonal patterns and normal trends refer to Landstar sequential revenue, load count, pricing or other trends for monthly or quarterly periods from 2015 to 2019, and excludes our historical results from 2020, 2021 and 2022, due to the highly unusual dynamics reflected in those metrics during the pandemic-driven freight cycle.

在進一步詳細了解 Landstar 2023 年第四季的業績之前，請注意，我將提及正常的季節性模式或正常趨勢。就今天的電話會議而言，正常季節性模式和正常趨勢是指Landstar 2015 年至2019 年期間的月度或季度連續收入、負載計數、定價或其他趨勢，不包括我們2020 年、2021 年和2022 年的歷史結果，因為在大流行驅動的貨運週期中，這些指標反映出了極不尋常的動態。

Overall truck revenue was $1.85 billion in the 2023 fourth quarter, 29% below the 2022 fourth quarter, a 22% decrease in load volume and a 10% decrease in revenue per load. It should be noted that the 2022 fourth quarter included 14 weeks, whereas the 2023 fourth quarter included 13 weeks. Excluding the estimated truckload volume from the extra week in the 2022 fourth quarter, truckload volume decreased an estimated 19% in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to the 2022 fourth quarter.

2023 年第四季卡車總營收為 18.5 億美元，比 2022 年第四季下降 29%，裝載量下降 22%，每裝載收入下降 10%。值得注意的是，2022年第四季包括14週，而2023年第四季包括13週。排除2022年第四季額外一週的預計卡車裝載量，2023年第四季卡車裝載量預計較2022年第四季下降19%。

As we entered the 2023 fourth quarter, the number of loads hauled via truck in early October was trending below normal seasonal patterns. The below normal trend in the number of loads hauled via truck started in the 2022 second quarter, as each sequential quarter-to-quarter change in truckload count from the 2022 second quarter through the 2022 fourth quarter was below normal seasonal patterns, due to the soft consumer demand for the types of freight we hauled and a slow U.S. manufacturing sector.

隨著進入 2023 年第四季度，10 月初透過卡車運輸的貨物數量趨勢低於正常的季節性模式。透過卡車運輸的貨物數量從2022 年第二季度開始出現低於正常水平的趨勢，因為從2022 年第二季度到2022 年第四季度，卡車裝載數量的每個連續季度變化都低於正常的季節性模式，原因是消費者對我們運輸的貨物類型的需求疲軟，而且美國製造業發展緩慢。

Based on normal seasonal patterns, truckload volume typically increases slightly from the third quarter to the fourth quarter in a given year. From the 2022 third quarter to the 2023 fourth quarter, truckload volume decreased 6%, a significant underperformance compared to normal seasonal patterns.

根據正常的季節性模式，卡車裝載量通常從特定年份的第三季到第四季略有增加。從2022年第三季到2023年第四季度，卡車裝載量下降了6%，與正常的季節性模式相比，表現明顯不佳。

As to pricing, truck revenue per load is trending reasonably in line with normal seasonal patterns through mid-October, However, revenue per load on loads hauled via truck softened after the first few weeks of October, and trended seasonally below normal patterns from September to October, October to November and November to December.

就定價而言，截至10 月中旬，卡車每載貨收入的趨勢與正常季節性模式相當一致，然而，通過卡車運輸的每載貨收入在10 月的前幾週後有所疲軟，並且從9月到9 月的季節性趨勢低於正常模式。十月、十月至十一月和十一月至十二月。

We attribute that negative pattern primarily to the abnormally soft peak season.

我們將這種負面模式主要歸因於異常疲軟的旺季。

We look at BCO revenue per mile as a barometer of the rate environment, as this metric mostly excludes the impact of rising and falling fuel costs. During the 2023 fourth quarter, revenue per mile on BCO van equipment remained fairly stable from October to December, whereas revenue per mile on BCO unsided platform equipment softened through the quarter.

我們將每英里 BCO 收入視為費率環境的晴雨表，因為該指標主要排除了燃料成本上升和下降的影響。 2023 年第四季度，BCO 貨車設備的每英里收入從 10 月到 12 月保持相當穩定，而 BCO 單側平台設備的每英里收入在整個季度有所疲軟。

BCO revenue per mile on van equipment and unsided equipment, which in both cases, excludes fuel surcharges, were 17% and 14% higher in December 2023 compared to the December 2019, respectively. However, based on industry data from ATRI, the cost to operate a truck excluding fuel cost was approximately 20% greater in 2022 than in 2019.

與 2019 年 12 月相比，2023 年 12 月貨車設備和單面設備每英里的 BCO 收入（這兩種情況均不包括燃油附加費）分別增長了 17% 和 14%。然而，根據 ATRI 的行業數據，2022 年不包括燃油成本的卡車營運成本比 2019 年增加約 20%。

In other words, the increase in rates since December 2019 likely has not kept up over that period, with the increase in cost to operate a truck. We continue to believe that rates in the spot market will stay relatively higher than 2019 levels, given the significant amount of additional cost to operate a truck today.

換句話說，自 2019 年 12 月以來，隨著卡車營運成本的增加，費率的上漲可能無法跟上這段時期的步伐。我們仍然認為，鑑於目前操作卡車的額外成本很高，現貨市場的費率將保持相對高於 2019 年的水準。

In terms of revenue by equipment type in the 2023 fourth quarter, revenue hauled via van equipment, unsided platform equipment, power only and Less-than-truckload revenue, all experienced revenue declines from the 2022 fourth quarter.

從2023年第四季按設備類型劃分的收入來看，貨車設備、單面平台設備、純動力和零擔收入均較2022年第四季下降。

Revenue hauled via van equipment was 29% below the 2022 fourth quarter, mostly on soft demand on the consumer freight we hauled. Revenue hauled via unsided platform equipment was 20% below the 2022 fourth quarter, mostly due to a slow U.S. manufacturing sector.

透過貨車設備運輸的收入比 2022 年第四季低 29%，主要是因為我們運輸的消費者貨運需求疲軟。透過非側平台設備帶來的收入比 2022 年第四季低 20%，這主要是由於美國製造業成長緩慢。

Other truck transportation revenue, which is primarily comprised of power only revenue, was significantly favorably impacted by increased demand for substitute line haul services during the pandemic, and without 51% compared to the 2022 fourth quarter.

其他卡車運輸收入主要由純電力收入組成，受到疫情期間替代線路運輸服務需求增加的顯著有利影響，與 2022 年第四季相比下降了 51%。

Unsurprisingly, demand for substitute line haul services was significantly softer throughout 2023 compared to 2022.

毫不奇怪，與 2022 年相比，2023 年對替代長途運輸服務的需求明顯疲軟。

Less-than-truckload revenue decreased 26% compared to the 2022 fourth quarter and a 15% decrease in load volume, a 13% decrease in pricing.

與 2022 年第四季相比，零擔收入下降 26%，裝載量下降 15%，定價下降 13%。

Our rail, air and ocean services revenue in the 2023 fourth quarter was 23% or $26 million below the 2022 fourth quarter. Non-truck transportation revenue generated in the 2023 fourth quarter was, however, consistent with the revenue these services generated in the 2023 third quarter.

我們 2023 年第四季的鐵路、航空和海運服務收入比 2022 年第四季下降了 23%，即 2,600 萬美元。然而，2023 年第四季的非卡車運輸收入與 2023 年第三季這些服務產生的收入一致。

Total network loadings in the 2023 fourth quarter were 21% below the 2022 fourth quarter. Total low volume is somewhat influenced by customer mix. For example, Landstar provides truck capacity to other trucking companies, 3PLs and truck brokers, where volumes tend to vary more widely period-to-period, with changes in the levels of freight demand. Revenue hauled on behalf of other truck transportation companies was 15% and 19% of transportation revenue in the 2023 and 2022 fourth quarters, respectively.

2023 年第四季的網路總負載比 2022 年第四季下降 21%。總低銷量在一定程度上受到顧客組合的影響。例如，Landstar 向其他貨運公司、3PL 和卡車經紀人提供卡車運力，隨著貨運需求水準的變化，這些運輸量往往會隨著時期的變化而變化較大。 2023 年和 2022 年第四季度，代表其他卡車運輸公司運輸的收入分別佔運輸收入的 15% 和 19%。

During periods of tight truck capacity, other trucking companies, 3PLs and truck brokers reach out to Landstar to provide truck capacity more often than during times of readily available truck capacity. The freight hauled by Landstar on behalf of other truck transportation companies includes almost all of our commodity groupings.

在卡車運力緊張期間，其他貨運公司、3PL 和卡車經紀人會比在卡車運力充足期間更頻繁地聯繫 Landstar 提供卡車運力。 Landstar 代表其他卡車運輸公司運送的貨物幾乎包括我們所有的商品類別。

Overall, the revenue hauled on behalf of other truck transportation companies in the 2023 fourth quarter was 42% below the 2022 fourth quarter, contributing 28% of the overall $470 million decrease in quarter over prior year quarter revenue.

整體而言，2023 年第四季代表其他卡車運輸公司運輸的收入比 2022 年第四季低 42%，佔本季營收較去年同期減少 4.7 億美元的 28%。

Year-end 2023 BCO truck count was approximately 13% below the 2022 year-end truck count. Fiscal 2023 BCO truck turnover was 41%, which is higher than the 36% turnover rate Landstar experienced in 2019, during the most recent relatively comparable soft rate environment.

2023 年底 BCO 卡車數量比 2022 年底卡車數量減少約 13%。 2023 財年 BCO 卡車週轉率為 41%，高於 Landstar 在 2019 年最近相對可比的軟利率環境下的 36% 週轉率。

We believe the increase in the turnover rate compared to the comparable 2019 period was due to the significance of the decrease in rates, the duration of the negative trend in month-to-month revenue per load and the increased cost to operate a truck today compared to pre-pandemic periods.

我們認為，與 2019 年同期相比，週轉率的增加是由於費率下降的顯著性、每載貨收入逐月下降趨勢的持續時間以及今天運營卡車成本的增加。到大流行前時期。

I will now pass to Jim Todd to comment on other additional P&L metrics rerouting the 2023 fourth quarter performance.

我現在將請吉姆·托德 (Jim Todd) 評論重新調整 2023 年第四季業績的其他附加損益指標。

Jim?

吉姆？

Thanks, Jim. Jim G. has covered certain information on our 2023 fourth quarter, so I will cover various other fourth quarter financial information included in the press release.

謝謝，吉姆。 Jim G. 報告了我們 2023 年第四季度的某些信息，因此我將報告新聞稿中包含的各種其他第四季度財務信息。

In the 2023 13-week fourth quarter, gross profit was $124.6 million compared to gross profit of $180 million in the 2022 14-week fourth quarter.

2023 年第四季為期 13 週的毛利為 1.246 億美元，而 2022 年第四季為期 14 週的毛利為 1.8 億美元。

Gross profit margin was 10.3% of revenue in the 2023 fourth quarter, as compared to gross profit margin of 10.7% in the corresponding period of 2022.

2023年第四季毛利率佔營收的10.3%，而2022年同期毛利率為10.7%。

In the 2023 fourth quarter, variable contribution was $178.1 million compared to $234 million in the 2022 fourth quarter. Variable contribution margin was 14.8% of revenue in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to 14% in the same period last year. The increase in variable contribution margin compared to the 2022 fourth quarter was primarily attributable to mix, as an increased percentage of revenue was generated by BCO independent contractors, which typically has a higher barrier to contribution margin than revenue generated by other modes of transportation, and an increased variable contribution margin on revenue generated by BCO independent contractors.

2023 年第四季的可變貢獻為 1.781 億美元，而 2022 年第四季為 2.34 億美元。 2023 年第四季可變邊際貢獻佔營收的 14.8%，去年同期為 14%。與2022 年第四季相比，可變邊際貢獻的增加主要歸因於混合因素，因為BCO 獨立承包商產生的收入百分比增加，而與其他運輸方式產生的收入相比，其邊際貢獻通常具有更高的障礙，以及BCO 獨立承包商產生的收入的可變邊際增加。

Other operating costs were $13.2 million in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to $10.3 million in 2022. This increase was primarily due to increased trailing equipment maintenance costs and decreased gains on sale of used trailing equipment.

2023 年第四季的其他營運成本為 1,320 萬美元，而 2022 年為 1,030 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於拖曳設備維護成本增加以及二手拖曳設備銷售收益減少。

Insurance and claims costs were $27.3 million in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to $29.6 million in 2022. Total insurance and claims costs were 6% of BCO revenue in 2023 period and 5% of BCO revenue in the 2022 period.

2023 年第四季的保險和索賠成本為 2,730 萬美元，而 2022 年為 2,960 萬美元。保險和索賠成本總額佔 2023 年期間 BCO 收入的 6%，佔 2022 年期間 BCO 收入的 5%。

The decrease in insurance and claims costs as compared to 2022 was primarily attributable to decreased net unfavorable development of prior year claim estimates, partially offset by increased premium expense primarily for commercial auto and excess liability coverage.

與 2022 年相比，保險和索賠成本下降的主要原因是上一年索賠估計的淨不利發展減少，部分被主要用於商用汽車和超額責任險的保費支出增加所抵消。

During the 2023 and 2022 fourth quarters, insurance and claims costs included $900,000 and $3.8 million, respectively, of net unfavorable adjustments to prior year claim estimates.

2023 年和 2022 年第四季度，保險和索賠成本分別包括對上一年索賠估計的不利調整淨額 90 萬美元和 380 萬美元。

Selling, general and administrative costs were $52.7 million in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to $56.1 million in 2022. The decrease in selling, general and administrative costs was primarily attributable to a decreased provision for incentive and equity compensation under our variable compensation programs, partially offset by increased employee benefit costs.

2023 年第四季的銷售、一般和管理成本為5,270 萬美元，而2022 年為5,610 萬美元。銷售、一般和管理成本的減少主要歸因於我們可變薪酬計劃下的激勵和股權薪酬撥備減少，部分抵消了透過增加員工福利成本。

In the 2023 fourth quarter, the provision for compensation under variable programs was $100,000 compared to $5.3 million in the 2022 fourth quarter.

2023 年第四季，可變計畫下的薪資撥備為 10 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季為 530 萬美元。

Depreciation and amortization was $13.7 million in the 2023 fourth quarter compared to $14.8 million in 2022. This decrease was primarily due to decreased depreciation on the company's trailer fleet, partially offset by increased depreciation on software applications, resulting from continued investment in new and upgraded tools for use by agents and third-party capacity providers.

2023 年第四季的折舊和攤銷為1,370 萬美元，而2022 年為1,480 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於公司拖車車隊的折舊減少，部分被軟體應用程式折舊增加所抵消，這是由於對新工具和升級工具的持續投資所致供代理商和第三方容量提供者使用。

The effective income tax rate of 24.1% in the 2023 fourth quarter was 60 basis points lower than the effective income tax rate of 24.7% in the 2022 fourth quarter, as the effective income tax rate in the 2023 fourth quarter was favorably impacted by certain positive state tax developments.

2023年第四季的有效所得稅率為24.1%，較2022年第四季的24.7%的有效所得稅率低60個基點，因為2023年第四季的有效所得稅率受到某些正面因素的有利影響。州稅的發展。

In addition, the effective tax rate in the 2022 fourth quarter was unfavorably impacted by the impairment and deferred tax assets related to employee equity compensation arrangements, as a result of performance conditions being attained as of year-end.

此外，由於截至年底業績條件已達到，2022年第四季的實際稅率受到與員工股權薪資安排相關的減損和遞延稅資產的不利影響。

Looking at our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $541 million. Cash flow from operations for 2023 was $394 million and cash capital expenditures of $26 million.

從我們的資產負債表來看，本季末我們的現金和短期投資為 5.41 億美元。 2023 年營運現金流為 3.94 億美元，現金資本支出為 2,600 萬美元。

Back to you, Jim.

回到你身邊，吉姆。

Thanks, Jim. We entered 2023 with a challenging freight environment and very difficult year-over-year comparisons coming off of record 2022.

謝謝，吉姆。要進入 2023 年，我們面臨著充滿挑戰的貨運環境，而且與 2022 年相比，年比比較也非常困難。

Landstar's revenue performance through the freight cycles that occurred over the past 4 years ultimately set the stage for where we are today.

Landstar 在過去 4 年貨運週期中的營收表現最終為我們今天的成就奠定了基礎。

From the 2022 second quarter at the start of the pandemic, to the record revenue Landstar achieved in the 2022 second quarter, sequential quarter-to-quarter revenue trends were above seasonal norms. That revenue up cycle lasted 7 quarters.

從疫情開始時的 2022 年第二季度，到 Landstar 在 2022 年第二季度實現創紀錄的收入，連續季度收入趨勢高於季節性正常水平。此營收成長週期持續了 7 個季度。

Through the 2023 fourth quarter, quarter-to-quarter revenue has now decreased below historical seasonal trends for 6 consecutive quarters from the record revenue set in the 2022 second quarter. Generally, in the ordinary course of our business, we experienced down cycles that drive revenue from peak to trough as well as up cycles that drive revenue from trough to peak, with each peak and trough being higher than the last.

截至 2023 年第四季度，季度營收較 2022 年第二季創紀錄的營收已連續 6 季低於歷史季節性趨勢。一般來說，在我們的正常業務過程中，我們經歷了將收入從高峰推向低谷的下降週期，以及將收入從低谷推向高峰的上升週期，每個高峰和低谷都高於前一個。

In the case of either down cycles or up cycles, freight cycles tend to move from peak to trough or trough to peak over 6 to 8 quarters. These cycles are typically driven by 3 main factors: the level of industry demand for freight services, the level of availed truck capacity and the differential between industry-wide contract and spot pricing at any given point in time.

無論是下降週期還是上升週期，貨運週期往往會在 6 到 8 個季度內從高峰轉向低谷，或從低谷轉向高峰。這些週期通常由 3 個主要因素驅動：產業對貨運服務的需求水準、可用卡車運力水準以及任何給定時間點的全行業合約定價與現貨定價之間的差異。

Given we have been in a down cycle for 6 consecutive quarters, we expect to begin to see above normal seasonal revenue growth around midyear 2024.

鑑於我們已連續 6 個季度處於下行週期，我們預計 2024 年年中左右將開始看到高於正常季節性收入成長。

Currently, we expect first quarter 2024 revenue per truck load and number of loads hauled via truck to track in line with seasonal norms following the 2023 fourth quarter. This expectation is driven by the trends in revenue per truckload and truckload volume in the first several weeks of January, and the weaker-than-normal peak season in the 2023 fourth quarter.

目前，我們預計 2024 年第一季每卡車裝載收入和透過卡車運輸的貨物數量將符合 2023 年第四季後的季節性標準。這一預期是由 1 月前幾週每卡車收入和卡車裝載量的趨勢以及 2023 年第四季淡於正常旺季的趨勢所推動的。

Given those expectations, we anticipate revenue in the 2024 first quarter to be in a range of $1.1 billion to $1.15 billion and diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.35. This earnings estimate anticipates variable contribution margin ranging from 14.5% to 14.7%.

鑑於這些預期，我們預計 2024 年第一季的營收將在 11 億美元至 11.5 億美元之間，攤薄後每股收益將在 1.25 美元至 1.35 美元之間。此獲利預測預期可變邊際貢獻率為 14.5% 至 14.7%。

Please note that the variable contribution margin in the first quarter is most often the highest variable contribution margin of any quarter during a given year. This is typically attributable in large part to mix, as BCO revenue, which is a higher variable contribution margin than other modes, often contributes a higher percentage of revenue in the first quarter.

請注意，第一季的可變邊際貢獻通常是給定年份中任何季度的最高可變邊際貢獻。這通常在很大程度上歸因於混合，因為 BCO 收入比其他模式具有更高的可變邊際貢獻，通常在第一季貢獻更高的收入百分比。

Higher variable contribution margin on third-party truck brokerage revenue in the first quarter compared to the following 3 quarters also may contribute to historical seasonal trend, as the first quarter is typically seasonally softer than the following 3 quarters.

與接下來的三個季度相比，第一季第三方卡車經紀收入的可變貢獻邊際較高也可能有助於歷史季節性趨勢，因為第一季通常比接下來的三個季度季節性疲軟。

The expectation of a cycle upturn midyear suggests Landstar could experience increasing demand, a shift in mix towards truck brokerage and somewhat of a tighter truck capacity market as we move through to 2024. As such, the first quarter variable contribution margin included in the first quarter guidance is not representative of what we expect for the full year.

年中周期好轉的預期表明，隨著我們進入2024 年，Landstar 可能會經歷需求增加、轉向卡車經紀業務的組合以及卡車運力市場趨緊的情況。因此，第一季的可變貢獻邊際包含在第第一季中指導並不代表我們對全年的預期。

Based on current assumptions for 2024, we expect variable contribution margin for the full year '24 fiscal year to be below the first quarter by 50 to 100 basis points. As previously mentioned, the macro freight environment softened significantly throughout 2023 as compared to the dynamic driven demand that continue to drive freight markets in the early part of fiscal year 2022.

根據目前對 2024 年的假設，我們預期 24 財年全年的可變貢獻邊際將低於第一季 50 至 100 個基點。如前所述，與 2022 財年初期繼續推動貨運市場的動態驅動需求相比，2023 年宏觀貨運環境顯著疲軟。

Regards to a less robust freight environment and inflationary pressure of Landstar of labor, equipment and insurance costs, the resiliency of Landstar's variable cost business model continues to generate significant free cash flow and financial returns. Last our achieved free cash flow of $368 million in fiscal year 2023 and ended the year with a stronger balance sheet than ever before.

面對較不強勁的貨運環境以及Landstar勞動力、設備和保險成本的通膨壓力，Landstar可變成本業務模式的彈性繼續產生可觀的自由現金流和財務回報。去年，我們在 2023 財年實現了 3.68 億美元的自由現金流，並以比以往任何時候都更強大的資產負債表結束了這一年。

2024 has its work cut out for it, due to continuing soft conditions in the freight environment. Nevertheless, we have been through many business cycles before, and we still expect nothing less than 2024 being a terrific year by prepandemic standards.

由於貨運環境持續疲軟，2024 年的工作任務艱鉅。儘管如此，我們之前已經經歷過許多商業週期，我們仍然預計，以疫情前的標準，2024 年將是非常棒的一年。

Before I open the questions, I want to put a little more color around the first quarter guidance. We often refer to seasonal patterns as it relates to short-term trends quarter-to-quarter. And the seasonal patterns, when you look at the more inputs to a financial metric, the more volatile that season pattern would be.

在提出問題之前，我想先對第一季的指導進行更多說明。我們經常提到季節性模式，因為它與季度至季度的短期趨勢相關。而季節性模式，當您查看財務指標的輸入越多時，季節模式的波動性就越大。

For example, when we look at truck revenue, we relate to seasonal patterns. There's only 2 inputs to truck revenue. It's revenue per load and it's the number of loads hauled. So it tends to, in the short term, be less volatile and things like EPS.

例如，當我們查看卡車收入時，我們會與季節性模式相關。卡車收入只有 2 個投入。它是每次裝載的收入和牽引的裝載數量。因此，在短期內，它的波動性和每股盈餘之類的東西往往會較小。

When we look at EPS, there are more inputs for EPS, whether it's the change in variable contribution margin from one quarter or our changes is in what tends to be the most volatile numbers in our P&L below the variable contribution line, which is insurance and our variable compensation programs.

當我們查看每股盈餘時，每股盈餘有更多的輸入，無論是一個季度的可變貢獻邊際的變化，還是我們的變化往往是可變貢獻線下方損益表中最不穩定的數字，即保險和我們的可變薪酬計劃。

So when we look at our trends and we look at the first quarter guidance and compared to the fourth quarter, we're kind of in line with the revenue trends seasonally. And again, seasonally from 2015 to 2019. But some of the trends somewhat when you look at EPS, and that's generally attributable to one is we're looking at a variable contribution margin in the first quarter that's slightly below the fourth quarter, and it's really driven by the fact that we are looking at the BCO revenue in the first quarter to be the same as the fourth quarter, where typically is higher in the first quarter than the fourth quarter. And that's due to a drop off in the fourth quarter of BCO.

因此，當我們查看趨勢並查看第一季的指導並與第四季度相比時，我們與季節性收入趨勢一致。再說一遍，從2015 年到2019 年的季節性。但是，當您查看每股收益時，會發現一些趨勢，這通常歸因於我們正在研究第一季度的可變貢獻邊際，略低於第四季度，而且它是真正推動這一事實的是，我們認為第一季的 BCO 收入與第四季度相同，通常第一季的收入高於第四季度。這是由於第四季 BCO 下降所致。

So we're anticipating a slightly lower variable contribution margin in the first quarter compared to fourth quarter, which is not a norm. And then you're also dealing with some -- the variable compensation programs in the first quarter, along with a little bit of CEO transition cost that wasn't necessarily in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計第一季的可變邊際貢獻率將略低於第四季度，這不是常態。然後你還要處理一些問題——第一季的可變薪酬計劃，以及一些不一定在第四季度發生的執行長過渡成本。

And then when I Look at it and I look at EPS falling off from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, it's more in line with 2015, 2016, 2017, because the seasonal pattern in 2018, if you recall, it was really driven by the ELD mandate when actually the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to 2018 was at abnormal. The 2018 was above expected performance. And in 2019, we just had -- we're coming off a very high set of compensation in 2018 and there was making the comp there, the 2019 comp to the fourth quarter much easier.

然後，當我看到每股收益從第四季度到第一季下降時，它更符合2015 年、2016 年、2017 年，因為2018 年的季節性模式，如果你還記得的話，它實際上是由事實上，2017 年第四季與 2018 年相比處於異常狀態。 2018年業績超乎預期。在 2019 年，我們剛剛在 2018 年獲得了非常高的薪酬，而那裡的薪酬，2019 年第四季的薪酬變得更加容易。

So that's where we're looking at the EPS. We're looking at about a 20% decline from the fourth quarter to the first or to the midpoint, which is really more representative of what we're anticipating and things other than the top line.

這就是我們關注每股收益的地方。我們預計第四季度與第一季或中點相比下降了約 20%，這確實更能代表我們的預期以及營收以外的情況。

And with that, I will open to questions.

接下來，我將接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is coming from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克（Brian Ossenbeck）。

Jim, maybe you can just give us some color on the trends in BCO? You mentioned the turnover and a couple of reasons behind that and why it was up. Where do you see that sort of bottoming out? Is there a risk that the longer this lasts maybe into that 8 quarter plus range that they just don't seem to come back as quickly or maybe come back with a lag? Really trying to understand that as it relates to just the leverage and the ability to grow in the model, that would be helpful.

Jim，也許您可以為我們介紹 BCO 的趨勢嗎？您提到了營業額以及背後的幾個原因以及營業額上升的原因。您在哪裡看到這種觸底反彈的情況？是否存在這樣的風險：這種情況持續的時間越長，可能會進入 8 個季度以上的範圍，但他們似乎不會那麼快地恢復，或者可能會出現滯後？真正嘗試理解這一點，因為它只與模型中的槓桿和增長能力有關，這會很有幫助。

Brian, this is Joe. I'll answer that question. So yes, so we've seen the BCO count decline at a pretty good clip. And I think as Jim mentioned in his prepared comments, a lot of that is just the duration of the down -- trending down. And also the fact that costs are up perhaps more than the rates are able to support.

布萊恩，這是喬。我來回答這個問題。是的，我們已經看到 BCO 數量大幅下降。我認為正如吉姆在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，其中許多只是下降的持續時間——下降趨勢。而且成本上漲的幅度可能超過了費率所能承受的水平。

And that's kind of what we've seen over the course of the last 4 quarters, and it continues into the first quarter.

這就是我們在過去四個季度中看到的情況，並且一直持續到第一季。

If we go back, we've seen some quarters whereby it's gone up pretty substantially as well. So I think the comp can be reactive, but the fundamentals have to be there.

如果我們回顧過去，我們會發現在某些季度它也大幅上漲。所以我認為補償可以是被動的，但基本面必須存在。

If I take you back to '17, we were up 250 -- up -- over 900 in 2018, up 750 in 2020, up 873 in 2021. So I think it speaks to the fact that the BCO capacity will come back into the model, but the fundamentals have to be there. And right now, I just don't think the fundamentals are all that compelling.

如果我帶你回到17 年，我們在2018 年增加了250 倍，超過900 倍，2020 年增加了750 倍，2021 年增加了873 倍。所以我認為這說明了這樣一個事實，即BCO 產能將恢復到模型，但基礎知識必須存在。現在，我只是認為基本面還沒有那麼引人注目。

And if you look at some of the reasons for the departures, I think that helps us kind of put some color around that.

如果你看看離職的一些原因，我認為這有助於我們對此進行一些解釋。

The single biggest reason for departure in full year 2023 was maintenance costs, inability to make repairs. So if your financial viability is questionable or you're marginally profitable as a BCO and you have a significant maintenance expense, you just can't cover it. So you go to the sidelines. And that's a full 20% of our terminations in 2020.

2023 年全年離開的最大原因是維護成本、無法進行維修。因此，如果您的財務生存能力有疑問，或者您作為 BCO 的盈利微乎其微，並且您有大量的維護費用，那麼您就無法承擔。所以你就到場邊去。這占我們 2020 年終止合約的 20%。

So I think that [speaks] 2 things. One, I think the difficulty in the environment for BCOs, but also the fact that when some of those things improve, I think the model can be resilient and grow as we have in the past.

所以我認為這[講了]兩件事。第一，我認為 BCO 面臨的環境困難，但事實上，當其中一些事情得到改善時，我認為該模式可以具有彈性並像我們過去一樣成長。

So I don't think it's anything that's systemic going forward. The interest to come on at Landstar is still there. I just think it's really a reaction to capacity leaving the market overall as it is. Small carriers across the landscape or leaving the market in rapid fashion. We're not immune to that. And so that's happening. I just think they'll continue to look for opportunities to come back in when the freight market improves, and we kind of move our way out of this freight recession.

所以我認為這不是什麼系統性的事。對 Landstar 的興趣仍然存在。我只是認為這其實是對產能維持現狀的反應。小型業者橫掃整個市場或快速退出市場。我們也不能倖免。事情就是這樣發生的。我只是認為，當貨運市場好轉時，他們將繼續尋找重返市場的機會，而我們也將擺脫貨運衰退。

Great. Maybe, Jim Gattoni, congrats on retirement. Best luck in the next phase. Maybe you can just give us a sense of the transition costs you mentioned there. It seemed like it was an impact worth calling out in the first quarter.

偉大的。也許，吉姆·加托尼，恭喜退休。祝下一階段好運。也許您可以讓我們了解您提到的過渡成本。這似乎是第一季值得強調的影響。

Brian. This is Jim Todd. So from a sequential standpoint, just related to SG&A, when you look at the reset of the variable compensation programs that Jim spoke to, coupled with the CEO transition costs, it's about a $5.9 million sequential headwind or about $0.12.

布萊恩.這是吉姆·托德。因此，從連續的角度來看，僅與SG&A 相關，當你看到Jim 談到的可變薪酬計劃的重置，再加上CEO 過渡成本時，這大約是590 萬美元的連續逆風或約0.12美元。

Okay. I appreciate it...

好的。我很感激...

We have the next question coming from the line of Bruce Chan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

Jim, congrats on the retirement there. I just want to ask a question on the substitute line haul. Jim, you talked about the weak peak this year and the impact on this end market relative to some of the others. But I just wanted to get your sense of whether this is a temporary thing related to this particular down cycle or whether this might be more of a structural issue, since we've heard of some big line-haul consolidation initiatives that some of the big traditional customers during this period. So any commentary there on the cyclicality versus structural weakness of substitute line haul?

吉姆，祝賀你在那裡退休。我只是想問一個關於替代線路的問題。吉姆，您談到了今年的疲軟高峰以及相對於其他一些市場對該終端市場的影響。但我只是想讓你們了解這是否是與這個特定的下行週期相關的暫時性問題，或者這是否可能更多是一個結構性問題，因為我們聽說過一些大型長途運輸整合舉措，一些大型航空公司這段時期的傳統客戶。那麼對於替代線路運輸的周期性與結構性弱點有什麼評論嗎？

If you look pre-pandemic, I wouldn't call it structurally weaker. It is weaker, but not to the degree it sounds because we're coming off a tremendous 2 years of substitute line haul, where those parcel carriers really needed us to jump in. There was so much stuff coming through the network.

如果你看看大流行前的情況，我不會認為它在結構上較弱。它比較弱，但沒有達到聽起來的程度，因為我們剛剛結束了兩年的替代線路運輸，那些包裹承運商確實需要我們介入。通過網絡傳輸的東西太多了。

So -- for us, I don't necessarily think it's structural. I think it's just a downturn at peak season. And I think I would anticipate that you're going to see a little bit of improvement going into the fourth quarter next year, because it's -- I've been here for quite a long time, and it's about the most abnormal peak season I've ever seen with the softness. So it's -- I don't believe it's structural.

因此，對我們來說，我不一定認為這是結構性的。我認為這只是旺季的低迷。我想我預計明年第四季你會看到一點點改善，因為我已經在這裡待了很長一段時間了，這是我經歷過的最不正常的旺季。曾經見過的溫柔。所以我不相信這是結構性的。

Okay. Great. Appreciate that. And just a quick follow-up here around your comments on unsided rates. I don't know what your sense is of what's going on there. Is that just industrial lagging the recovery in some of the other segments of the market? And then is there anything you're seeing with regard to a big consolidation in the space that was recently announced?

好的。偉大的。感謝。在此快速跟進您對不公正利率的評論。我不知道你對那裡發生的事情有什麼感覺。這只是工業領域落後於市場其他領域的復甦嗎？那麼，您是否看到了最近宣布的該領域的大規模整合？

Look, I think it's more demand than it is a consolidation or ending changing in the marketplace right now. We see -- one of the things I talked about is the revenue per mile on the flatbed, dropping as we move through the quarter. And it was just -- for us, it was softness in some of our customers, but I think it's just an industry-wide thing.

聽著，我認為現在市場的需求大於整合或結束變化。我們看到——我談到的一件事是平板車每英里的收入隨著季度的推移而下降。對我們來說，這是我們的一些客戶的軟弱，但我認為這只是整個行業的事情。

I think if you look at what happened in industrial production and manufacturing production in December, it was actually a positive for the first time in about 12 months. And I just think that hasn't transpired into the freight dynamic yet. We do expect that to continue to be relatively soft at least through the first quarter.

我認為，如果你看看 12 月工業生產和製造業生產發生的情況，你會發現這實際上是大約 12 個月以來的首次積極變化。我只是認為這還沒有體現在貨運動態中。我們確實預計至少在第一季將繼續相對疲軟。

But again, it has nothing to do with competition or changes in the industry dynamic. It's all just a little bit of softness coming through the flatbed market with 12 -- yes, 12 months of consecutive decreases in manufacturing.

但同樣，這與產業動態的競爭或變化無關。這只是平板市場的一點疲軟，製造業連續 12 個月下降。

We will now move to the next question coming from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

現在我們將討論沃爾夫研究斯科特小組提出的下一個問題。

Best of luck to Jim. So you made a comment that you think that 2024 will be something like a really good year relative to pre-pandemic standards. When I look at the guidance for Q1, you've got revenue still above 2019 levels, but now the earnings below and the margins, like at the lowest in like over a decade. So is Q1 a unique quarter in that the earnings and the margins are so far below? Or I just want to understand what you said on the prepared comments relative to the guidance.

祝吉姆好運。所以你評論說，相對於大流行前的標準，你認為 2024 年會是非常好的一年。當我查看第一季的指導時，您的收入仍高於 2019 年的水平，但現在的收益和利潤率卻低於 2019 年的水平，就像十多年來的最低水平。那麼，第一季的收益和利潤率是否是一個獨特的季度？或者我只是想了解您對與指南相關的準備好的評論所說的話。

Yes. I think if you look at 2019 pre inflation, if we didn't have inflation, would be sitting on the same margins. But especially when you look at insurance. If you remember what happened to us in insurance, we renew May 1 of every year our basically auto trucking liability policy, which gives us the coverage on trucking accidents.

是的。我認為，如果你看看 2019 年通膨前的情況，如果我們沒有通膨，我們的利潤率將會相同。但尤其是當你考慮保險時。如果您還記得我們在保險方面發生的事情，我們會在每年 5 月 1 日更新我們的基本汽車卡車運輸責任保單，這為我們提供了卡車運輸事故的承保。

If you go pre-May 1 of '19, our premiums on that were about $8 million to cover us up to pretty significant, very, very good coverages. And as you know, the nuclear verdicts has blown up that market. We are now probably above $30 million for that coverage. So you're looking at significant inflation on the insurance line compared to pre-pandemic levels.

如果你在 19 年 5 月 1 日之前去的話，我們的保費約為 800 萬美元，可以為我們提供相當大、非常、非常好的保險。如你所知，核子裁決摧毀了這個市場。我們現在的保險費用可能超過 3000 萬美元。因此，與大流行前的水平相比，您會發現保險額度出現了顯著的通貨膨脹。

There's also inflationary stuff in almost every line item. I don't want to sit here and talk about inflation too much. But cost of trailers, maintenance, stuff like that at 15% to 20%, you've got wages up more than historically over the last 2 or 3 years. So I think there's inflation in there, and this organization is going to try and bottle back to get to that to get back to that 50% margin.

幾乎每個項目中都存在通貨膨脹的因素。我不想坐在這裡過多地談論通貨膨脹。但拖車、維修等成本上漲了 15% 到 20%，過去 2 到 3 年你的薪資漲幅比歷史水準還要高。因此，我認為存在通貨膨脹，該組織將嘗試控制通貨膨脹，以恢復 50% 的利潤率。

I mean I think that's clearly going to be -- I would guess it's going to be a goal of the organization to get back there.

我的意思是，我認為這顯然會是——我想這將是該組織回到那裡的目標。

The other thing we got to is, we went through this tech modernization and upgrades to everything we possibly could do here to provide value to the agents and the capacity out there. So there's been some tech spending over the last 5 years has been a little higher than normal. So there's also that.

我們要做的另一件事是，我們經歷了技術現代化，並升級了我們可以在這裡做的一切，為代理商和那裡的能力提供價值。因此，過去 5 年的一些技術支出略高於正常水平。所以還有那個。

So there's -- if you look at those costs, there's a little bit more cost in the organization to offset this year as compared to 2019.

因此，如果你看看這些成本，你會發現與 2019 年相比，今年組織需要抵銷的成本要多一些。

Okay. And then it strikes me that everyone has been saying, we're in this really, really bad market, but the capacity is taking longer to come out than we would have thought, and maybe that's why the market hasn't tightened up at all yet. But your specific model is seeing something different in that your BCO count is now below where it was before the cycle started. And I don't know that we've seen a cycle where that's happened where your trough is -- on BCO is below the prior trough. So why do you think your specific model is seeing something more extreme in terms of capacity reductions relative to the overall market?

好的。然後令我震驚的是，每個人都在說，我們正處於一個非常非常糟糕的市場，但產能釋放的時間比我們想像的要長，也許這就是市場根本沒有收緊的原因。但您的特定模型看到了一些不同的情況，因為您的 BCO 計數現在低於週期開始前的水平。我不知道我們是否見過這樣的週期，即 BCO 低於先前的低谷。那麼，為什麼您認為您的特定模型在產能減少方面相對於整個市場而言更為極端呢？

Yes, Scott, this is Joe. That's a great question. I think one of the things -- and it kind of is embedded in that 20% of our turnover as it relates to major repairs to equipment. We run -- we tend to run older equipment here. And I think that the fact that repairs have been very, very challenging and very, very expensive has made that number pretty significant and perhaps we're a little bit different in that regard. So I think when those things happen, it hits us a little bit harder. That is probably the single biggest explanation for that, just based on why people are leaving.

是的，斯科特，這是喬。這是一個很好的問題。我認為其中一件事——它包含在我們營業額的 20% 中，因為它與設備的重大維修有關。我們在這裡運行——我們傾向於運行舊設備。我認為，維修工作非常非常具有挑戰性，而且非常非常昂貴，這一事實使得這個數字相當可觀，也許我們在這方面有點不同。所以我認為當這些事情發生時，對我們的打擊會更大一些。僅基於人們離開的原因，這可能是對此的最大解釋。

And I just -- the broader market, I find it hard to read the broader market and to get an accurate assessment to know whether we're down more. I think we're down below where we were in 2019. I completely agree with that.

我只是 - 更廣泛的市場，我發現很難閱讀更廣泛的市場並獲得準確的評估以了解我們是否下跌更多。我認為我們的水平低於 2019 年的水平。我完全同意這一點。

Yes, it's a little bit puzzling because the age of the fleet as far as BCOs is about the same. It's really -- maybe they're on the leading edge, maybe that are on the leading edge of coming back to, we hope so.

是的，這有點令人費解，因為就 BCO 而言，機隊的年齡大致相同。這確實是——也許他們正處於領先地位，也許他們正處於回歸的前沿，我們希望如此。

It's -- the relationships that we have when they depart are not bad. We don't believe, as I mentioned on the prior question, I don't think they're leaving, maybe for long term. There's only a small -- I think it was around -- I think it's like 14% of those that left actually were getting out of trucking. So I think they're there to come back. I just think they're taking the opportunity. If they can't make a reasonable living and they can't -- and they've got other options, which perhaps they do. They're sitting on the sidelines waiting for a more compelling case to come back.

他們離開後我們的關係還不錯。正如我在上一個問題中提到的，我們不相信他們會離開，也許是長期的。只有一小部分——我想是這樣的——我認為離開的人中有 14% 實際上是在放棄卡車運輸。所以我認為他們會回來。我只是認為他們正在利用這個機會。如果他們無法過合理的生活，他們確實不能——而且他們還有其他選擇，也許他們確實這麼做了。他們坐在一旁等待更有說服力的案件回來。

Yes. I mean I would just -- I'm just thinking about it this way. Like your BCO count is, again, now well below where it was in '19. Your approved and active brokerage carriers are still well above, right? So it just feels like you're seeing the brunt a bit more than the overall market.

是的。我的意思是我只是──我只是這樣想。就像您的 BCO 計數現在再次遠低於 19 年時的水平一樣。您認可且活躍的經紀公司仍然遠遠高於，對吧？所以感覺你所看到的衝擊比整個市場大一些。

I think one of the things you got to look at too is the type of freight we hauled. We are heavy spot business. And if you heard -- I talked about that 3PL nontrucks up being at 42%. So you got to look at kind of what they're hauling in our network, too. And some of that -- when you look at that overflow type business that irregular nonroutine nonrepetitive type freight, that market clearly is a little bit softer than you do on the contract world.

我認為您還需要注意的事情之一是我們運送的貨物類型。我們是重現貨業務。如果你聽說過——我談到 3PL 非卡車運輸比例為 42%。因此，您還必須了解他們在我們的網路中傳輸的內容。其中一些 - 當你看到溢出類型的業務，即不規則的非常規非重複類型的貨運時，該市場顯然比合約世界中的市場要軟一些。

So the contract trucks stay around a little bit longer than these guys, because we're dealing with a drop-off in that type of freight. I think that has a little bit to do with it.

因此，合約卡車的停留時間比這些人長一點，因為我們正在處理此類貨運量的下降問題。我認為這與它有一點關係。

Okay. And if I could just ask one last thing. Like this recent improvement in spot just to start the year. What's your view? Is this just weather? Is it sustainable in any way? How are you thinking about that?

好的。如果我能問最後一件事就好了。就像今年剛開始的最近的改善。你的看法是什麼？這只是天氣嗎？它以任何方式可持續嗎？你覺得怎麼樣？

I'd like to believe at the beginning of that 6 to 8 cycle turn, right? One thing I would point out is -- and this isn't quite a green shoot, but we'll give you a little bit of a -- we had record truck brokerage spreads at the beginning of last year, right? So that means -- that meant the capacity environment was very, very loose.

我願意相信在 6 到 8 個週期的開始時，對吧？我要指出的一件事是——這並不是一個新芽，但我們會給你一點——去年年初我們的卡車經紀利差創下了紀錄，對嗎？這意味著容量環境非常非常寬鬆。

Starting after the second quarter, coming into the third and fourth quarter, we saw that compress a little bit. We're still seeing -- so I think that would tell you that there's a little bit of pressure coming from the trucks to us to pay them a little bit more.

從第二季度開始，進入第三和第四季度，我們看到了一點壓縮。我們仍在觀察——所以我認為這會告訴你，卡車給我們帶來了一點壓力，要求我們多付一點錢。

So in that environment, that -- it kind of holds to say if they're pushing us more on rate from the truck side that spot rates, that's not, it's not a weather thing. It's the beginning of maybe flattening or maybe what we're seeing is normal seasonal upticks coming in the second -- mid-2024. So I look at that the spreads on the third-party truck pay.

因此，在這種環境下，這可以說，如果他們從卡車方面推動我們提高現貨費率，那就不是，這不是天氣問題。這可能是趨於平緩的開始，也可能是我們所看到的正常季節性上升，也就是 2024 年中期出現的情況。所以我認為第三方卡車的價差是可以支付的。

Best of luck, Jim.

祝你好運，吉姆。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will move to the next question coming from the line of Jack Atkins of Stephens.

我們將轉向來自史蒂芬斯的傑克阿特金斯的下一個問題。

Okay. Great. And Jim, I'll echo everyone's [sentiment] at. Hopefully, now you'll have time to focus on your golf game. But I guess kind of shifting gears here, I would maybe just like to kind of think about some of the inflationary pressures in the business this year. And so maybe this is a question for Jim Todd. But I guess as you sort of think about incentive compensation accruals, can you maybe help quantify that for us a bit? And then elsewhere, could you maybe talk about the cost inflation that you may be seeing in '24 versus 23, just so we can kind of have the full year calibrated correctly on an expense perspective?

好的。偉大的。吉姆，我會回應每個人的[情緒]。希望您現在有時間專注於高爾夫球比賽。但我想這裡有點轉變，我可能只是想思考今年該行業的一些通膨壓力。所以也許這是吉姆·托德的問題。但我想當你考慮應計激勵薪酬時，你能幫我們量化一下嗎？然後在其他地方，您能否談談您在 24 年與 23 年可能會看到的成本通膨，這樣我們就可以從費用角度正確校準全年？

Jack, I'd be happy to. With respect to full year expectations, the stock of computation under variable programs, you guys have heard me talk about hypothetical $12 million reset, '24 versus bare case '23. Based on where we closed out fourth quarter of '23 and adding on the impact of some CEO transition, my current base case for G&A there is a $17 million headwind year-over-year. And that $17 million is pre any other, what I would call, normal wage or benefit inflation.

傑克，我很樂意。關於全年預期，可變程序下的計算存量，你們聽過我談論假設的 1200 萬美元重置，“24 與裸案例”23。根據我們 23 年第四季的結束情況，再加上一些 CEO 換屆的影響，我目前的 G&A 基本情況是，同比將出現 1700 萬美元的逆風。這 1700 萬美元是在我所說的正常工資或福利通膨之前的。

If we look at other operating costs in 2023, we had a tough year there, a very challenging year. Our contractor bad debt provision, which is one of the lumpiest line items in there was a record, and it was about 4.3 million over trailing 7-year trend.

如果我們看看 2023 年的其他營運成本，我們度過了艱難的一年，非常具有挑戰性的一年。我們的承包商壞帳撥備是其中最混亂的項目之一，創下了記錄，在過去 7 年的趨勢中約為 430 萬。

So with a cycle inflection midyear and hopefully, that truck turnover rate mean reverting, you could have a $3 million to $4 million tailwind there, and we should bring the register on hopefully $2 million more a gain. So that's $5 million of tailwinds on that line. Plus we should have a smaller average size of the trailer fleet and the lower average age. So that could be a little bit of M&T good guys, partially offset by some software development rollout. So that could be some tailwinds there.

因此，隨著年中周期的轉折點，卡車週轉率有望恢復，可能會帶來 300 萬至 400 萬美元的順風車，我們應該讓登記冊有望再增加 200 萬美元的收益。因此，這將帶來 500 萬美元的順風車。另外，我們的拖車車隊平均規模應該更小，平均車齡也應該更低。因此，這可能是 M&T 的一些好東西，部分被一些軟體開發的推出所抵消。所以這可能會帶來一些順風。

And then finally, on depreciation, we were very disciplined in 2023 on the CapEx side, but we're starting to take deliveries again of new van trailers. And the cost per trailer headwind there is probably about 20% to 22% as compared to prepandemic. So you'll start to see that ramp up sequentially prior second quarter.

最後，在折舊方面，2023 年我們在資本支出方面非常嚴格，但我們開始再次接收新貨車拖車的交付。與大流行前相比，每輛拖車逆風造成的成本可能約為 20% 至 22%。因此，您將開始看到第二季之前的成長。

Okay. No, that's helpful, Jim. And I guess maybe kind of taking a step back, when -- if you guys think about it, there's been a lot of inflation in the business, Jim, to your point. And then as we kind of think about whether it's insurance, just structurally higher cost there, the technology investments that you've made, cargo theft is becoming a much bigger issue, to your point, Jim Todd.

好的。不，這很有幫助，吉姆。我想也許應該退一步，如果你們想一想，吉姆，按照你的觀點，這個行業存在著嚴重的通貨膨脹。然後，當我們思考這是否是保險，只是結構性更高的成本，您所做的技術投資，貨物盜竊正在成為一個更大的問題，就您的觀點而言，吉姆·托德。

So I guess, do you feel like that the sort of the traditional revenue splits and that it's been sort of embedded in Landstar's business for years, are still kind of the right way to kind of split the revenue moving forward? Or do you think there needs to be some changes there, just given you're bearing a lot more cost today in terms of overhead to support your agents and your BCOs than you've had to do in the past.

所以我想，您是否認為這種傳統的收入分割方式以及多年來一直嵌入 Landstar 業務中的方式，仍然是未來分割收入的正確方式？或者您是否認為需要進行一些更改，因為您今天在支援代理商和 BCO 的管理費用方面比過去承擔了更多的成本。

No. I wouldn't imagine we're going to change splits. Our role here is to support and add value to the agent community and the BCOs that are out there. And we always rely on the truck -- the price to rise with cost rising. And we still anticipate that's going to happen.

不，我不認為我們會改變分裂。我們在這裡的角色是支持代理商社群和現有的 BCO 並為其增加價值。我們總是依賴卡車——價格隨著成本的上漲而上漲。我們仍然預計這將會發生。

Now those costs clearly are squeezing us today. But over time, every trucking company out there is dealing with the same stuff we're dealing with, and eventually it's going to drive rates up to cover those costs.

現在，這些成本顯然正在擠壓我們。但隨著時間的推移，每家貨運公司都在處理我們正在處理的相同的事情，最終它將提高費率以覆蓋這些成本。

I just -- we're in a we're in this -- I don't want to call it a trough, because who knows where the future brings over the next 6 or 8 months. But we've always seen it. We've seen the turns, right? I've been here for 27 years, and the pricing on truck generally catches up to the cost inflation over a year or 2. So we expect that to happen. And there's no thought from this guy sitting here on his last call that we would adjust any of the splits to either the trucks or to the agents. It's our business model. It's what we do. Those costs are what we do to support the network.

我只是——我們正處於這樣的境地——我不想稱之為低谷，因為誰知道未來 6 或 8 個月會發生什麼。但我們一直都看到它。我們已經看到了轉折，對吧？我在這裡已經 27 年了，卡車的定價通常會在一兩年內趕上成本通膨。所以我們預計這種情況會發生。坐在這裡的這個人在他最後一次通話時並沒有想到我們會調整卡車或代理商的任何分配。這是我們的商業模式。這就是我們所做的。這些成本就是我們為支持網路所付出的代價。

Okay. Maybe just following up on that really briefly, though. I mean, would you think about -- historically, I thought about the incremental margins in terms of incremental gross profit dollars falling to the operating income line as being about 70%, 7-0. Would there be any reason why that would be different in the next up cycle, Jim?

好的。不過，也許只是簡單地跟進一下。我的意思是，你會想一想——從歷史上看，我認為增量毛利下降到營業收入線的增量利潤率約為 70%，即 7-0。吉姆，下一個上升週期會有什麼不同嗎？

I don't believe so because unless you have inflationary pressures or to do it what they did over the last 2 years, that put a lot of pressure on that 70%. But if we get back to a normalized 2% inflation and all that type of stuff, I would think that 70% would still be a valid goal in the organization.

我不這麼認為，因為除非有通膨壓力或像他們過去兩年所做的那樣，否則這會給那 70% 的人帶來很大的壓力。但如果我們回到正常化的 2% 通膨率以及所有類似的情況，我認為 70% 仍然是該組織的有效目標。

This infrastructure is built. But clearly, over the last 5 or 6 years, my goal was to modernize the technology and give them better tools. And they're pretty far down the path there. So I would think that, that 70% goal would be a nice goal for 2025, given more reasonable inflationary pressures in the organization.

這個基礎設施已經建成。但顯然，在過去的五、六年裡，我的目標是實現技術現代化並為他們提供更好的工具。他們已經離那裡很遠了。因此，我認為，考慮到組織內更合理的通膨壓力，70% 的目標將是 2025 年的一個不錯的目標。

Jim, congratulations.

吉姆，恭喜你。

Thanks, Jack.

謝謝，傑克。

We will move to the next question coming from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

我們將轉向摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克提出的下一個問題。

So, there's been a lot of questions on the BCO. So maybe you can just shift gears a little bit. Let's talk about insurance. I think you've seen a number of companies across the industry kind of point to huge inflation in that area for next year. Seems like an ongoing structural issue. You guys mentioned in your remarks. I would love to get a little more detail here. I think if you're exposed to that kind of more than a few others, it's gone up to 5.5%. What's the long-term future of that business? Anything that you guys can do or the industry needs to do to get that under control?

因此，關於 BCO 存在著許多疑問。所以也許你可以稍微改變一下。我們來談談保險。我認為您已經看到整個行業的許多公司都指出明年該領域將出現巨大的通貨膨脹。似乎是一個持續存在的結構性問題。你們在發言中提到了。我很想在這裡了解更多細節。我認為，如果你接觸到的這種情況比其他一些人多，那麼這個比例就會上升到 5.5%。該業務的長期未來是什麼？你們可以做些什麼或是業界需要做些什麼來控制這種情況？

Yes, to get it under control. We still have to stop [platelets] lawyers from coming up with reasons to take money from us. I mean, clearly, we accept liability in the event that our accident -- sometimes you end up tangled up in something that's not your fault. But we feel we're very fair in settling our accident claims.

是的，為了控制住它。我們仍然必須阻止[血小板]律師想出理由從我們這裡拿錢。我的意思是，很明顯，如果我們發生事故，我們會承擔責任——有時你最終會陷入一些不是你的錯的事情。但我們認為我們在解決事故索賠方面非常公平。

But we've been dealing with the 2019, May 1, as I said, May 1, 2019, and those premiums are actually after the 2019 renewal when I think the premiums went up almost 200%. We still see a little bit of creep in it. But I don't -- I'm not sure I understand why there's various carriers out there that are just talking about it today and why they're getting hit with these big claims.

但我們一直在處理 2019 年 5 月 1 日，正如我所說，2019 年 5 月 1 日，這些保費實際上是在 2019 年續保之後，當時我認為保費上漲了近 200%。我們仍然看到其中有一點蠕動。但我不知道——我不確定我是否理解為什麼今天有各種各樣的運營商在談論這個問題，以及為什麼他們會受到這些重大索賠的打擊。

The Landstar has been dealing with this nuclear verdicts for 5 or 7 years. We dealt with the premium increase in 2019. So we're -- it's kind of built into the model now. Clearly, we could have a nuclear verdict hit us that would create more volatility in the line. But the instability of that line that we've experienced over the last 5 years is -- I don't want to say it's going to stabilize. It's still difficult getting insurance companies to carry trucking companies starting -- we got a renewal coming up May 1.

Landstar 已經處理這個核裁決五、七年了。我們在 2019 年處理了保費上漲的問題。所以我們現在將其納入模型中。顯然，核裁決可能會打擊我們，從而造成更大的波動。但過去 5 年我們經歷的這條線的不穩定性是——我不想說它會穩定下來。讓保險公司從一開始就為卡車運輸公司承保仍然很困難——我們將於 5 月 1 日續保。

But from an -- I think we've dealt with the majority of the inflationary pressure on the insurance line. Are we going to still have some? But I think most of it's behind us, might it still be 5% to 10% a year? Yes, it could be. But the big hit was '19, '20 and '21 is really where we saw it.

但我認為我們已經應對了保險額度上的大部分通膨壓力。我們還會有一些嗎？但我認為大部分已經過去了，每年可能還是5%到10%嗎？是的，可能是這樣。但最熱門的是 19 年、20 年和 21 年，我們確實在其中看到了它。

What we do here is if we have an accident in a quarter, we put that accident up, and we try and get it -- from an accounting standpoint, we try and get the quarters to the number that we think it should be. And clearly, we have unfavorable development, in some cases, and that carries over, and you can see that in our financials.

我們在這裡所做的是，如果我們在一個季度內發生事故，我們會將事故記錄下來，然後我們嘗試得到它 - 從會計的角度來看，我們嘗試將季度的數量達到我們認為應該的數字。顯然，在某些情況下，我們的發展不利，這種情況會持續下去，你可以在我們的財務數據中看到這一點。

But I would say that we still struggle with getting renewals, but the pricing seems okay, and there's still some participating carriers out there. And we're also a very safe organization. We we probably lead the industry on accidents per million miles. We sit at like 2.1, where the average is like 4. So we do get some favorable treatment when it relates to that.

但我想說的是，我們仍然很難獲得續訂，但定價似乎還不錯，而且仍然有一些參與的運營商。我們也是一個非常安全的組織。我們可能在每百萬英里的事故數方面處於行業領先地位。我們的分數大約是 2.1，而平均值大約是 4。因此，當涉及到這一點時，我們確實得到了一些優惠待遇。

But I would say, based on the long answer was -- I think we'll see more stability in that going forward than looking backwards.

但我想說，基於長篇答案，我認為我們會看到未來比回顧更穩定。

Got it. That's super helpful. Maybe as a follow-up, Jim, congratulations on an amazing career. I'd love to get maybe just broad reflections from you on how the industry has changed, what you've seen over the years, surprises, advice for the future, et cetera?

知道了。這非常有幫助。也許作為後續行動，吉姆，祝賀你取得了令人驚嘆的職業生涯。我很想從您那裡得到關於這個行業如何變化的廣泛反思、您多年來所看到的、驚喜、對未來的建議等等？

Why the industry changed significantly when I step away? I'm just saying, the whole industry, the entire industry is going to change when I step away.

為什麼當我離開後，這個行業發生了巨大的變化？我只是說，當我離開時，整個產業、整個產業都會改變。

No, I think insurance was one. That was a big change we saw coming along. I think one of the most interesting things was the digital players who are bragging about Ubering the -- I'm going to be the -- I'm going to Uber the agent base away, I'm going to get rid of all the broker carriers.

不，我認為保險就是其中之一。我們看到這是一個巨大的改變。我認為最有趣的事情之一是那些吹噓 Uber 的數位玩家——我將成為——我將用 Uber 取代代理商基地，我將擺脫所有經紀商。

We were prepared if that actually happen. We never said it was not a viable business. I still believe that there is some kind of play for technology, only in the industry if you're hauling marbles. But when you're putting expensive freight on a truck, you want someone watching it, right? So we've said that all along.

如果這種情況真的發生，我們已經準備好了。我們從未說過這不是可行的業務。我仍然相信科技有某種發揮作用，只有在產業中，如果你在拖彈珠的話。但是當您將昂貴的貨物裝上卡車時，您希望有人監視，對嗎？所以我們一直這麼說。

The other thing we always talk about too is we have the technology everybody was selling. I mean we have an app on the phones where the trucks can access. So that's the one thing that -- it came and went in -- during my career here. Back in the early 2010, 2011, we were going to be Uberized, and now you've seen what's happened in that industry.

我們也經常談論的另一件事是我們擁有每個人都在銷售的技術。我的意思是我們在手機上有一個應用程序，卡車可以訪問該應用程式。這就是我在這裡的職業生涯中發生過的一件事。早在 2010 年初、2011 年，我們就準備好進行 Uber 化，現在您已經看到了該行業發生的情況。

So insurance was a big one, as I mentioned. But other than that, it's been a very consistent business for 28 years. We've -- and we've always focused on the core, and we watch the disruptors and we react appropriately to protect our agent base in our network.

正如我所提到的，保險是一項重要的工作。但除此之外，28 年來，這一直是一項非常穩定的業務。我們一直專注於核心，我們專注於破壞者，並做出適當反應，以保護我們網路中的代理基礎。

But it's been a great ride. And going forward, I see this model is just continue to thrive. I mean, because I think they got -- there's a great management team here, a lot of experience. The depth here is -- everybody's got a 25-year plaque on the wall. So me departing this organization doesn't change a thing. But...

但這是一次很棒的旅程。展望未來，我認為這種模式將繼續蓬勃發展。我的意思是，因為我認為他們擁有一支出色的管理團隊，並且擁有豐富的經驗。這裡的深度是──每個人的牆上都有一塊25年的牌匾。所以我離開這個組織並沒有改變什麼。但...

Thanks, Jim. We'll miss you.

謝謝，吉姆。我們會想念你的。

We will move now to the next question coming from the line of Bascome Majors of Susquehanna.

現在我們將討論來自薩斯奎哈納巴斯科姆梅傑斯隊的下一個問題。

I wanted to go back to Jack's question on the splits, but from another angle. I think in 2020, you actually increased the incentives that you paid to the BCOs to really kind of keep them intact in a very difficult period for the transactional nature of their business. I mean, is there some incentive or talk or thought about maybe doing that to stem the decline for a temporary period and keeping the network more intact than it has been? Just it's -- as we see the decline in BCO count accelerate, as we get deeper into the cycle, I think people would love to hear more about kind of some of the creative things you're putting together to maybe stem that.

我想從另一個角度回到傑克關於劈腿的問題。我認為，在 2020 年，你們實際上增加了向 BCO 支付的激勵措施，以在業務交易性質非常困難的時期真正保持它們完好無損。我的意思是，是否有一些激勵措施、討論或想法可能會這樣做，以阻止暫時的衰退並保持網路比以前更加完整？正是這樣——隨著我們看到 BCO 數量加速下降，隨著我們深入這個週期，我認為人們會很樂意聽到更多關於你正在整合的一些創造性的東西，也許可以阻止這種情況。

Yes. Unfortunately, I can't speak to the next -- for the next CEO about that. We haven't changed our split in -- since I've been here pretty much tweaked them maybe a little bit. So I would probably defer that conversation for at least tomorrow or when you know you can call Frank when he's here in the office and ask his opinion. But that one is tough.

是的。不幸的是，我無法與下一任執行長談論此事。我們還沒有改變我們的劃分——因為我來這裡之後，我們對它們進行了一些調整。因此，我可能會至少將談話推遲到明天，或者當弗蘭克在辦公室時你可以打電話詢問他的意見時。但那個很難。

Going back to the 2020 move that we made, it was the suddenness of the drop in freight demand that actually had us react. It wasn't this gradual slowdown in the environment. It wasn't normal economics. So that's why we -- and what we did back then what I believe is we added $50 per load to the BCO, plus $50 per load to the agent to compensate them in an environment that basically the door closed on the freight environment suddenly. So we did that for 3 or 4, maybe 6 months, I don't really remember.

回到我們2020年採取的舉措，真正讓我們做出反應的是貨運需求的突然下降。這並不是環境逐漸放緩。這不是正常的經濟學。所以這就是為什麼我們——我認為我們當時所做的就是我們向 BCO 每批貨物增加 50 美元，向代理商每批貨物增加 50 美元，以補償他們在貨運環境突然關閉的環境中的情況。所以我們這樣做了三、四個月，也許六個月，我不太記得了。

But that was a reaction to a very abnormal environment. This is kind of a trending downwards. And I think it's a great discussion that the management team is going to have with the new CEO coming in. I don't want to say he won't do it, and I'm not saying he will do it, but I think that's a conversation we had later.

但這是對非常不正常的環境的反應。這是一種下降趨勢。我認為管理團隊將與新任執行長進行一次很好的討論。我不想說他不會這樣做，我也不是說他會這樣做，但我認為這是我們後來的一次談話。

And thoughts on the stock and your investment in that this year, just kind of where you are in the matrix and what we can expect from a buyback versus special dividend balance from where we sit today?

對股票和你今年的投資的想法，你在矩陣中的位置，以及我們對回購與特別股息平衡的期望是什麼？

Bascome, you know our preference, I think, Gattoni put it best several years back when he said our 2 favorite things to do here are work hard and buy back stock. And based on the conversations I've had with Frank so far and what I've read about him, I think he's going to fit in just fine.

巴斯科姆，你知道我們的偏好，我想，加托尼幾年前說得最好，當時他說我們在這裡最喜歡做的兩件事是努力工作和回購股票。根據迄今為止我與弗蘭克的對話以及我所讀到的有關他的信息，我認為他會很好地適應。

One thing to touch on to, is if you looked at the fourth quarter buybacks, we bought -- yes, we bought 239,000 shares back. We probably would have been in more except for the confidential, the insider information about me departing got -- it was coming almost finalized. So we had to kind of get out of the market.

需要提到的一件事是，如果你看一下第四季的回購情況，我們買了——是的，我們買回了 239,000 股。除了關於我離開的機密、內幕消息之外，我們可能會參與更多的事情——它即將敲定。所以我們只好退出市場。

We will move now to the next question coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank.

我們現在轉向德意志銀行 Amit Mehrotra 提出的下一個問題。

This is [Ben Moore] calling in for Amit. I wanted to ask, how do you expect your cost structure to trend in 2024, including incentive costs? It looks like if you apply normal seasonality on loads and revenue per load for the balance of the year, we're getting to 2024 EPS at below $6. Is that the right way to think about it? And can you provide any other color on costs?

我是[本·摩爾]打電話給阿米特。我想問，您預期 2024 年您的成本結構趨勢如何，包括激勵成本？看起來，如果您對今年剩餘時間的負載和每次負載收入應用正常的季節性，我們將獲得 2024 年每股收益低於 6 美元的結果。這是正確的思考方式嗎？您能提供任何其他有關成本的顏色嗎？

Ben, it's hard enough for us to go 90 days out than a full year out. So the big one that I'd call out is that $17 million discrete headwind on the G&A line and the couple of tailwinds I mentioned on the other operating cost line. Insurance 5.5 is the number we're using. That's our best guess. We'll continue to revisit that each quarter.

本，對我們來說，外出 90 天比外出一整年都困難。因此，我要指出的最大問題是 G&A 線上 1700 萬美元的離散阻力，以及我提到的其他營運成本線上的幾個阻力。保險5.5是我們使用的號碼。這是我們最好的猜測。我們將繼續每季重新審視這一點。

Okay. Appreciate that. And maybe just as a follow-up. We're seeing -- we're still seeing truck capacity based on DOT registrations, very high with only very minimal exits in the past couple of months and some economists are projecting stimulus cash to last possibly through this year and maybe even into the next year. So we could be in for a very loose capacity for longer. Would you guys agree? And what are you seeing or hearing on this?

好的。感謝。也許只是作為後續行動。我們看到——我們仍然看到基於交通部註冊的卡車運力非常高，過去幾個月只有很少的出口，一些經濟學家預計刺激資金可能會持續到今年，甚至可能持續到明年。因此，我們可能會在更長時間內處於非常寬鬆的產能狀態。你們同意嗎？您對此有何看到或聽到？

Yes, Ben, I watched the same net revocation data that you do. And I do think that the decline in the market for capacity it seems slow. But one of the things I don't think it accounts for is, I don't think it necessarily track carriers that have gone from 10 trucks to 3 trucks or 2 trucks. I think maybe there's a little bit more exits than we can count in just the DOT data. But I also agree that it's hanging around longer than I think many and myself included, thought it would, just based on what we said earlier, the duration of the decline and the severity of the decline.

是的，Ben，我和你看到的網路撤銷資料是一樣的。我確實認為容量市場的下降似乎很緩慢。但我認為它沒有考慮到的一件事是，我認為它不一定跟踪從 10 輛卡車變成 3 輛卡車或 2 輛卡車的承運人。我認為也許出口數量比我們僅透過 DOT 數據計算得出的要多一些。但我也同意，根據我們之前所說的，下降的持續時間和下降的嚴重程度，它的持續時間比我認為的許多人和我自己想像的要長。

But -- so I don't -- I have no crystal ball to know how long it's going to last and people will stick around. It just doesn't seem like with the cost pressures that exist that it could last another year, doesn't seem to make -- doesn't seem to ring true with me. But I guess we'll see.

但是——所以我不知道——我沒有水晶球來知道這種情況會持續多久，人們會留下來。考慮到現有的成本壓力，它似乎無法再持續一年，似乎對我來說似乎不真實。但我想我們會看到的。

Yes. And Ben, I would just add to Jim's comments earlier, with respect to those net revenue spreads on brokerage that we watch, first quarter 2023 was the widest quarter I have on record going back 52 quarters. We compressed gradually 1Q into 2Q, 2Q into 3Q, but ended up compressing 55 basis points third quarter to fourth quarter. So again, that could be an early read that maybe things are starting to firm up a little bit.

是的。 Ben，我想補充 Jim 先前的評論，就我們觀察到的經紀業務淨收入利差而言，2023 年第一季是我有史以來 52 個季度以來最寬的季度。我們逐漸將第一季壓縮到第二季度，第二季度壓縮到第三季度，但最終第三季到第四季壓縮了55個基點。再說一次，這可能是一個早期的解讀，也許事情開始變得有點堅定了。

Great. I appreciate the insights.

偉大的。我很欣賞這些見解。

We will now move to the next question coming from the line of Elliot Alper of TD Cowen.

我們現在轉向 TD Cowen 的 Elliot Alper 提出的下一個問題。

Great. This is Elliot in for Jason Seidl. Revenue per load, maybe on the ocean side, stepped up 13% sequentially. Curious if this was just some seasonality or if you're seeing some capacity tightness due to the situations in the Red Sea or Suez. If so, would appreciate maybe your thoughts on how this could affect the business going forward or maybe what you're seeing through January?

偉大的。這是艾利歐特（Elliot）代替傑森·塞德爾（Jason Seidl）。每次裝載的收入（可能是在海運方面）連續成長了 13%。很好奇這是否只是一些季節性因素，或者您是否因為紅海或蘇伊士的情況而看到一些運力緊張。如果是這樣，請問您對這將如何影響未來業務的想法，或者您在一月份看到的情況？

Elliot, for us, it's a little bit of a tough read there because our ocean revenue per load, it's not just container costs. Our RevPAR load also includes things like inland transportation to and from the ports, custom fees and duties. So it's niche with respect to the agents to participate in the kind of project stuff that we're working on. So I wouldn't use that as a read through.

埃利奧特，對我們來說，這有點難以閱讀，因為我們每次裝載的海運收入，不僅僅是貨櫃成本。我們每間可用的收入負荷還包括往返港口的內陸運輸、海關費用和關稅等。因此，對於代理商來說，參與我們正在進行的專案是一個利基市場。所以我不會用它作為通讀。

Got it. Understood. So maybe a follow-up on the LTL side. (inaudible) down 15% in the quarter. Can you maybe talk about the current LTL environment? Maybe what your expectations are first quarter, first half of the year, maybe what you've seen through January, maybe at some of these new terminals from (inaudible) come online?

知道了。明白了。所以也許是零擔方面的後續行動。 （聽不清楚）本季下降 15%。您能談談目前的零擔運輸環境嗎？也許您對第一季、上半年的期望是什麼，也許您在一月份看到了什麼，也許這些新終端（聽不清楚）上線了？

Yes. As you know, we don't really own any assets and we don't have any terminals. So we're kind of more of a niche play in there, where we take our truck customers, and we do some LTL for them. So in a market -- the market for us is really tied to some specific customers. So we have a little bit of customer softness in our top 10 customers, and we anticipate that's going to continue on. But being 3% of our business and really specific to maybe 20 of our agents or 30 of our agents doing a bulk of it, it tends to just move more in line with our customer base than with kind of industry dynamics.

是的。如您所知，我們並不真正擁有任何資產，也沒有任何終端。因此，我們在這方面更像是一個利基市場，我們吸引卡車客戶，並為他們提供一些零擔服務。因此，在市場中，我們的市場實際上與某些特定客戶緊密相關。因此，我們的前 10 名客戶中存在一些客戶疲軟的情況，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。但作為我們業務的 3%，而且實際上具體是由我們的 20 名代理商或 30 名代理商承擔大部分業務，它往往更符合我們的客戶群，而不是行業動態。

It's almost a little like the ocean pricing. Our ocean pricing is in -- is not an indicator of what's going on in the industry. It's more special project type stuff. LTL is a little bit similar to that as we provide a little bit more special hands-on service on the LTL side for certain of our customers.

這幾乎有點像海洋定價。我們的海運定價並不是產業狀況的指標。這是更特殊的項目類型的東西。 LTL 與此有點相似，因為我們在 LTL 方面為某些客戶提供更特殊的實踐服務。

We will now move to the last caller to ask a question coming from the line of Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

我們現在將轉向最後一位來電者，詢問來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 的問題。

This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie. I'll echo everyone's comments, congrats to you, Jim.

這是史蒂芬妮的喬·哈夫林。我會回應每個人的評論，恭喜你，吉姆。

I guess I just kind of maybe wanted to circle back lastly on the BCO count. We've talked previously about broadly higher highs and higher lows. How do you see that dynamic in the context of sort of the BCO count under pressure now. And we've talked a lot about what's causing that pressure, but I was curious if there was anything that you could add, as it relates to regulatory definition of independent contractors or anything like that, that might be causing maybe a longer-term structural pressure on the BCO count?

我想我可能只是想最後回顧一下 BCO 計數。我們之前討論過普遍較高的高點和較高的低點。在 BCO 計數現在面臨壓力的背景下，您如何看待這種動態？我們已經討論了很多關於造成這種壓力的原因，但我很好奇您是否可以添加任何內容，因為它與獨立承包商或類似事物的監管定義有關，這可能會導致長期結構性壓力BCO 計數有壓力嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. So back to the higher highs comment. We're a great place to be for owner operators who want a lot of freedom and independence. And it's a freedom to be successful and it's a freedom to stay, and it's the freedom to leave. And I think we've seen a little bit of that just with the volatility in the market.

是的。謝謝，喬。所以回到更高的高點評論。對於想要大量自由和獨立的業主經營者來說，我們是一個很好的地方。這是成功的自由，留下來的自由，也是離開的自由。我認為我們已經看到了市場波動的一些情況。

I as I said earlier, I don't think there's anything systemic there. There's interest. I think BCO count will rally as the opportunities are here. I think that we're the best model for that.

正如我之前所說，我認為那裡沒有任何系統性的東西。有興趣。我認為隨著機會的到來，BCO 數量將會上漲。我認為我們是這方面的最佳典範。

Now there is pressure on California with AB5 that's kind of sitting with the judge after the trial to try to make some decisions there. There's -- either with the current administration continues to question what's an independent contractor and what's not. And we keep an eye on all that stuff. We think we're very well prepared. In the case of AB5 in California, we were very proactive. We don't think that's going to be any sort of a negative for us.

現在，加州面臨 AB5 的壓力，他們在審判後與法官坐在一起，試圖在那裡做出一些決定。現任政府要嘛繼續質疑什麼是獨立承包商，什麼不是。我們密切關注所有這些事情。我們認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。就加州的 AB5 而言，我們非常積極主動。我們認為這不會給我們帶來任何負面影響。

If that were to spread across the country for some -- in other states, would we have some work to do? Yes, sure. But we really lost very few BCOs as it relates to AB5, and we would hope that we would have come out similarly, if it were to move to some other states that are kind of on that list of where it might expand.

如果這種情況蔓延到全國其他州的一些人，我們還需要做一些工作嗎？是的，當然。但我們確實失去了很少的 BCO，因為它與 AB5 相關，我們希望如果它要轉移到可能擴展的清單中的其他一些州，我們也會有類似的結果。

At this time, I show no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to you, sir, for closing remarks.

此時，我沒有再提出任何問題。先生，我想將電話轉回給您，請您發表結束語。

Well, first off, I'd like to thank everybody for having this be my longest call in 10 years on my last day in as the CEO, President and CEO of Landstar. So that's special.

首先，我要感謝大家，在我擔任 Landstar 執行長、總裁兼執行長的最後一天，這是我 10 年來最長的一次電話會議。所以這很特別。

But before I sign off on my final last earnings conference call, I want to thank all Landstar's agents, BCOs and employees, for your contributions to Landstar's 2023 performance in a very challenging freight environment. The people in Landstar's unique network of agents, capacity providers and employers are what truly sets Landstar apart in our industry and enable success we all achieve together.

但在結束最後一次收益電話會議之前，我要感謝 Landstar 的所有代理商、BCO 和員工，感謝你們在極具挑戰性的貨運環境中為 Landstar 2023 年業績做出的貢獻。 Landstar 獨特的代理商、容量提供者和雇主網路中的人員真正使 Landstar 在我們的行業中脫穎而出，並使我們共同取得成功。

It's been my privilege to have worked at Landstar for the past 28-plus years, and the professional honor of a lifetime to serve as a Chief Executive Officer of Landstar over the past decade.

我很榮幸能夠在 Landstar 工作超過 28 年，並且在過去十年中擔任 Landstar 執行長是我一生的職業榮譽。

I'm truly grateful for the opportunity to have been a part of this network of agents, capacity providers, employees, customers and shareholders, as well as a Landstar's Board of Directors, who I have had the pleasure of working with over the years.

我真的很感激有機會成為這個由代理商、容量提供者、員工、客戶和股東以及 Landstar 董事會組成的網路的一部分，多年來我很高興與他們合作。

I'm highly confident in the Landstar business model and its superior management team, and I know I leave the leadership in good hands as Frank Lonegro assumes the role of President and CEO.

我對 Landstar 的商業模式及其卓越的管理團隊充滿信心，而且我知道，隨著 Frank Lonegro 擔任總裁兼首席執行官，我將把領導權交給優秀的人。

I'll now pass it to Frank for some closing comments. Frank?

現在我將把它轉交給弗蘭克，讓他做一些總結評論。坦率？

Thanks very much, Jim. On behalf of all of the agents, BCOs, carriers, customers, employees and shareholders, that you've so positively impacted during your career, our heartfelt congratulations on your retirement. We wish you in hand nothing but the best as you embark on this next chapter of life.

非常感謝，吉姆。我們謹代表所有在您的職業生涯中對您產生積極影響的代理商、BCO、承運商、客戶、員工和股東，衷心祝賀您的退休。當您開啟人生的下一個篇章時，我們祝福您一切順利。

I'm both excited and humbled to join Landstar as its next CEO, and appreciate the Landstar Board giving me the opportunity to lead this great company.

我對加入 Landstar 擔任下一任執行長感到既興奮又謙卑，並感謝 Landstar 董事會給我機會領導這家偉大的公司。

Landstar's unique tech-enabled asset-light agent-based model will continue to be the key to our success. And I look forward to working with the Landstar team to support our independent business owners and drive profitable growth and value for our shareholders.

Landstar 獨特的技術驅動的輕資產代理模式將繼續成為我們成功的關鍵。我期待與 Landstar 團隊合作，為我們的獨立企業主提供支持，並為我們的股東推動獲利成長和價值。

With that, we'll bring this call to a close and look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter call currently scheduled for April 25. Thank you very much.

至此，我們將結束本次電話會議，並期待在目前定於 4 月 25 日舉行的第一季電話會議上與您交談。非常感謝。

Thank you for joining the conference call today. Have a good morning. Please disconnect your lines at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。祝你早安。此時請斷開您的線路。