Landstar System Inc (LSTR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Landstar System, Inc.'s Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) session. Today's call is being recorded. Joining us today from Landstar are Jim Gattoni, President and CEO; Jim Todd, Vice President and CFO; Joe Beacom, Vice President and Chief Safety and Operations Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加 Landstar System, Inc. 第二季度收益發布電話會議。 （操作員指示）會話。今天的通話正在錄音。今天加入我們的是 Landstar 總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Gattoni；吉姆·托德，副總裁兼首席財務官； Joe Beacom，副總裁兼首席安全和運營官。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Jim Gattoni. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆·加托尼先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Landstar's 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, let me read the following statement. The following is a safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements made during this conference call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 Landstar 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。在我們開始之前，讓我閱讀以下聲明。以下是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的安全港聲明。本次電話會議期間所做的並非基於歷史事實的聲明均為前瞻性聲明。

During this conference call, we may make statements that contain forward-looking information that relates to Landstar's business objectives, plans, strategies and expectations. Such information is by nature subject to uncertainties and risks, including, but not limited to, the operational, financial and legal risks detailed in Landstar's Form 10-K for the 2022 fiscal year described in the section Risk Factors and other SEC filings from time to time.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會發表包含與 Landstar 業務目標、計劃、戰略和期望相關的前瞻性信息的聲明。此類信息本質上受到不確定性和風險的影響，包括但不限於 Landstar 的 2022 財年 10-K 表格中詳細描述的運營、財務和法律風險，這些風險在風險因素和其他 SEC 文件中描述。時間。

These risks and uncertainties could cause actual results or events to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Investors should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking information unless or undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information.

這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果或事件與歷史結果或預期結果存在重大差異。投資者不應過度依賴此類前瞻性信息，除非或不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性信息的義務。

Given the current freight environment with soft demand and readily available truck capacity, Landstar performed relatively well on the 2023 second quarter. Before beginning my discussion of our 2023 second quarter financial performance, I want to briefly discuss two big picture items, freight cycles and seasonal trends that provide context to this year's results.

鑑於當前需求疲軟且卡車運力充足的貨運環境，Landstar 在 2023 年第二季度的表現相對較好。在開始討論 2023 年第二季度財務業績之前，我想簡要討論兩個大項目：貨運週期和季節性趨勢，它們為今年的業績提供了背景。

Landstar's revenue performance through the freight cycles that occurred over the past 3 years, ultimately set the stage from where we are today. Generally in the ordinary course of our business, we experienced spot market down-cycles that drive revenue from peak to trough as well as up-cycles that drive revenue from trough peak. In both cases, the typical spot market freight cycle from peak to trough or trough to peak occurs over a period of 6 to 8 quarters. And these cycles are typically driven by three main factors: the level of industry demand for freight services; the level of available truck capacity industry -- in the industry; and the differential between industry-wide contract and spot pricing at any given point in time during the cycle.

Landstar 在過去 3 年貨運週期中的收入表現最終為我們今天的發展奠定了基礎。一般來說，在我們的正常業務過程中，我們經歷了現貨市場的下行週期（將收入從高峰推向低谷）以及上行週期（將收入從低谷推向低谷）。在這兩種情況下，典型的現貨市場貨運週期從高峰到低谷或從低谷到高峰發生在 6 到 8 個季度的時間內。這些週期通常由三個主要因素驅動：行業對貨運服務的需求水平；行業可用卡車運力水平——行業內；以及週期內任何給定時間點的全行業合同定價和現貨定價之間的差異。

Looking back over the last 3 years, Landstar's trough quarterly revenue occurred in the 2020 second quarter at the beginning of the pandemic. Landstar peak quarterly revenue occurred 8 quarters later in the 2022 second quarter. From 2020 second quarter revenue trough to the 2022 second quarter peak, revenue grew by over $1 billion or 140%. Since hitting peak quarterly revenue in the 2022 second quarter, Landstar has experienced a down cycle during which quarterly revenue has thus far decreased each quarter over the past 4 quarters. Current conditions make it difficult to predict exactly when the current down-cycle will end and revenue will again begin to cycle upwards. two of the three key factors that drive these up cycles are trending normally given the period of the cycle we are in.

回顧過去3年，Landstar的季度收入低谷出現在疫情爆發之初的2020年第二季度。 Landstar 的季度收入峰值出現在 8 個季度後的 2022 年第二季度。從 2020 年第二季度收入低谷到 2022 年第二季度收入高峰，收入增長超過 10 億美元，即 140%。自 2022 年第二季度達到季度收入峰值以來，Landstar 經歷了一個下降週期，在過去的 4 個季度中，季度收入迄今每個季度都在下降。目前的情況使得很難準確預測當前的下行週期何時結束以及收入何時再次開始上升。考慮到我們所處的周期週期，推動這些上升週期的三個關鍵因素中有兩個呈正常趨勢。

One, at the truck availability, truck orders have recently slowed and industry-wide DOT truck revocations have exceeded DOT truck authorizations in 7 of the last 8 months through May. And two, contract freight rates remain well above spot freight rates. However, the third key factor driving cycles, demand continues to be soft, which makes the timing of the end of down cycle less predictable. Throughout my remarks, I'll also make mention of the concept of normal seasonal patterns. For purposes of my remarks today, normal seasonal patterns refers to revenue load count and/or pricing trends from 2015 to 2019 and excludes 2020, 2021 and 2022, due to the highly unusual dynamics reflected in those quarterly metrics during the pandemic-driven freight cycle.

第一，在卡車可用性方面，卡車訂單最近放緩，截至 5 月份的過去 8 個月中有 7 個月，全行業 DOT 卡車撤銷量超過了 DOT 卡車授權。第二，合同運費仍遠高於現貨運費。然而，驅動週期的第三個關鍵因素是需求持續疲軟，這使得下行週期結束的時間變得更難以預測。在我的發言中，我還將提到正常季節性模式的概念。就我今天發言而言，正常季節性模式是指2015 年至2019 年的收入負荷計數和/或定價趨勢，不包括2020 年、2021 年和2022 年，因為在大流行驅動的貨運週期中這些季度指標反映了極不尋常的動態。

Now to the second 2023 second quarter. Including our April 26 first quarter earnings release, we provided revenue guidance of $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion. We updated the second quarter guidance via an 8-K filed with the SEC on May '23 in anticipation of an upcoming investor conference. In that 8-K, we lowered revenue and earnings guidance due mostly to both revenue per truck load and the number of loads hauled via truck through mid-May, trending below the estimates for those metrics used in our initial guidance. That update reduced the revenue guidance to $1.325 billion to $1.375 billion. Our initial second quarter earnings per share guidance was $1.90 to $2. Our updated earnings per share guidance based on the lower revenue guidance was $1.75 to $1.85. 2023 second quarter revenue and earnings per share both came in at the high end of the revised guidance.

現在到了2023年第二季度。包括 4 月 26 日發布的第一季度財報在內，我們提供了 14 億至 14.5 億美元的收入指引。由於預計即將召開的投資者會議，我們於 23 月 23 日通過向 SEC 提交的 8-K 更新了第二季度指引。在 8-K 中，我們降低了收入和盈利指引，主要是因為截至 5 月中旬每卡車裝載的收入和通過卡車運輸的貨物數量，趨勢低於我們最初指引中使用的這些指標的估計。此次更新將收入指引下調至 13.25 億美元至 13.75 億美元。我們最初的第二季度每股收益指導為 1.90 美元至 2 美元。我們根據較低的收入指引更新的每股收益指引為 1.75 美元至 1.85 美元。 2023 年第二季度收入和每股收益均位於修訂後指引的高端。

As we enter 2023, it was clear we were facing very difficult year-over-year financial comparisons coming out from back to back record years in '21 and 2022, driven by the strong consumer demand and tight truck capacity. In fact, beginning in the 2020 second quarter and through the 2022 first quarter, both truckload volume and revenue per load consistently outperformed sequential quarter-to-quarter normal seasonal patterns. This outperformance came to an end in the 2022 second quarter. From the 2022 third quarter through the 2023 second quarter less our truckload volumes and revenue per truckload underperformed normal seasonal trends.

當我們進入 2023 年時，很明顯，在強勁的消費者需求和緊張的卡車運力的推動下，我們面臨著非常困難的逐年財務比較，這是 21 年和 2022 年連續創紀錄的年份。事實上，從 2020 年第二季度開始一直到 2022 年第一季度，卡車裝載量和每裝載收入都持續優於連續季度的正常季節性模式。這種優異表現在 2022 年第二季度結束。從 2022 年第三季度到 2023 年第二季度，我們的卡車裝載量和每卡車裝載收入均低於正常的季節性趨勢。

Overall, total truck revenue was $1.247 billion in the 2023 second quarter, 29% below the 2022 second quarter on a 16% decrease in load volume and a 15% decrease in revenue per load. Our rail, air and ocean services in the 2023 second quarter were 50% or $102 million below the 2022 second quarter. The significant decrease in nontruck transportation revenue was in line with our expectations of lower volumes across all non-truck modes and the expectation of a significant decrease in ocean revenue per shipment. Although revenue in the 2023 first half was below the 2022 first half by 29%, one needs to put these impact of the pandemic-driven growth in perspective.

總體而言，2023 年第二季度卡車總收入為 12.47 億美元，比 2022 年第二季度下降 29%，裝載量下降 16%，每次裝載收入下降 15%。我們 2023 年第二季度的鐵路、航空和海運服務比 2022 年第二季度減少了 50%，即 1.02 億美元。非卡車運輸收入的大幅下降符合我們對所有非卡車運輸方式運輸量下降的預期以及每批海運收入大幅下降的預期。儘管2023年上半年的收入比2022年上半年下降了29%，但我們需要正確看待疫情驅動的增長的影響。

Even given the significant softness in demand compared to the fiscal 2022. 2023 first half revenue exceeded 2019 first half revenue by more than 35%. As it relates to truckload volume, Landstar's normal seasonal patterns exhibited average growth of approximately 8% from the first quarter to the second quarter. Given the softness in freight demand, actual second quarter truckload volume was 1% below the 2023 first quarter, in line with our updated guidance, but well below normal seasonal patterns.

即使考慮到與 2022 財年相比需求顯著疲軟，2023 年上半年收入仍比 2019 年上半年收入高出 35% 以上。就卡車裝載量而言，Landstar 的正常季節性模式從第一季度到第二季度平均增長約 8%。鑑於貨運需求疲軟，第二季度實際卡車裝載量比 2023 年第一季度低 1%，與我們最新的指導一致，但遠低於正常的季節性模式。

Even with the decrease we experienced in truckload volume from the first quarter to the second quarter, truckload volume in the 2023 second quarter was still Landstar's third best all-time second quarter truckload comp, behind only the consecutive second quarter record set in 2021 and 2022.

儘管我們從第一季度到第二季度的卡車裝載量有所下降，但2023 年第二季度的卡車裝載量仍然是Landstar 歷史上第三好的第二季度卡車裝載量對比，僅落後於2021 年和2022 年連續創下的第二季度紀錄。

The inconsistency in pricing month-to-month has been very atypical from a seasonal perspective, making it difficult to project spot pricing even in the near term. Late in the 2023 first quarter, truck revenue per load stabilized and the stabilization continued into early April prior to our release of the second quarter guidance. As April came to an end, rates took a sharp downturn and settled almost 5% below March. Over the past 16 months, is reaching its peak in February 2022, month-to-month sequential change in truck revenue per load have trended worse than normal seasonal patterns in all but 4 months.

從季節性角度來看，每月定價的不一致非常不典型，因此即使在短期內也很難預測現貨定價。 2023 年第一季度末，卡車每載重量收入趨於穩定，這種穩定狀態持續到 4 月初，然後我們才發布第二季度指引。隨著 4 月份的結束，利率急劇下降，比 3 月份低了近 5%。在過去 16 個月中，每載卡車收入的環比變化在 2022 年 2 月達到峰值，除了 4 個月外，其他所有月份都比正常的季節性模式更糟糕。

Most recently, in a positive development, May to June revenue per truckload increase modestly. However, performance was still below normal seasonal patterns. After the breakdown of truck transportation revenue by equipment type, unsided platform equipment held up better than revenue hold the van equipment and other truck transportation services. The quarter over prior year quarter revenue comparisons for van are much more challenging than not for revenue called on-site platform equipment, especially as it pertains to revenue per load.

最近，5 月至 6 月每卡車裝載收入出現積極發展，小幅增長。然而，表現仍低於正常的季節性模式。按設備類型細分卡車運輸收入後，非側向平台設備的收入表現好於貨車設備和其他卡車運輸服務的收入。與去年同期相比，貨車的本季度收入比現場平台設備的收入更具挑戰性，特別是因為它與每次裝載的收入有關。

The pandemic-driven spike in consumer demand drove van revenue per load from its trough in May 2020 to its peak in February 2022, up 76%, while revenue per load on on-site equipment increased -- revenue per load -- sorry, while revenue per load on onsite equipment increased 54% from its low point in May 2020 to its peak in July 2022. I believe the rates in the spot market will stay relatively higher than pre-pandemic levels given the significant amount of additional cost to operate a truck today.

大流行導致的消費者需求激增，推動廂式貨車的每載貨收入從2020 年5 月的低谷升至2022 年2 月的峰值，增長了76%，而現場設備的每載貨收入則有所增加——每載貨收入——抱歉，而現場設備每次負載的收入從2020 年5 月的低點到2022 年7 月的峰值增長了54%。鑑於運營設備需要大量額外成本，我相信現貨市場的費率將保持相對高於大流行前的水平。今天卡車。

Based on industry data from ATRI, the cost to operate a truck, excluding fuel costs in fiscal year 2022 was approximately 20% greater than in 2019, during which also experienced a relatively soft rate environment. BCO revenue per mile on van equipment and on-site equipment were 20% and 30%, respectively, above June 2019. I believe that due to these cost pressures, particularly on smaller carriers, there is relatively little room for further spot market rate decreases. Total loans in the 2023 second quarter was 17% below the 2022 second quarter. Truckload volume is somewhat influenced by Landstar's customer type. For example, Landstar provides truck capacity to other trucking companies, 3PLs and truck brokers, where volumes tend to vary more widely period-to-period with change in the levels of freight demand. Revenue held on -- hauled on behalf of other truck transportation companies was 16% and 20% of transportation revenue in the 2023 and 2022 second quarters, respectively.

根據 ATRI 的行業數據，2022 財年的卡車運營成本（不包括燃油成本）比 2019 年高出約 20%，而 2019 財年也經歷了相對疲軟的費率環境。與2019 年6 月相比，貨車設備和現場設備每英里的BCO 收入分別為20% 和30%。我認為，由於這些成本壓力，特別是小型承運商，現貨市場費率進一步下降的空間相對較小。 2023 年第二季度的貸款總額比 2022 年第二季度下降 17%。卡車裝載量在一定程度上受 Landstar 客戶類型的影響。例如，Landstar 向其他貨運公司、3PL 和卡車經紀人提供卡車運力，隨著貨運需求水平的變化，這些運輸量往往會在不同時期出現更大的變化。 2023 年和 2022 年第二季度，代表其他卡車運輸公司運輸的收入分別佔運輸收入的 16% 和 20%。

During periods of tight truck capacity, other trucking companies, 3PLs and truck brokers reach out the Landstar to provide truck capacity more often than during times of more readily available truck capacity. The freight haul by Landstar on behalf of other truck transportation companies includes almost all of our commodity groups, including our substitute line haul service offer. Overall, the number of loads hauled on behalf of other truck transportation companies in the 2023 second quarter was 28% below the 2022 second quarter, contributing significantly to the overall decrease in quarter over prior year quarter volume.

在卡車運力緊張期間，其他卡車運輸公司、3PL 和卡車經紀人比在卡車運力更容易獲得的時期更頻繁地聯繫 Landstar 提供卡車運力。 Landstar 代表其他卡車運輸公司提供的貨運幾乎包括我們所有的商品組，包括我們的替代線路運輸服務。總體而言，2023 年第二季度代表其他卡車運輸公司運輸的貨物數量比 2022 年第二季度減少了 28%，這對本季度貨運量整體下降做出了重大貢獻。

During the quarter, BCO truck count decreased by 261 trucks, a relative improvement compared to the 472 truck decrease we experienced in the 2023 first quarter. Overall BCO truck count has decreased approximately 11% since the end of the 2022 second quarter. It is typical to incur increased turnover in BCO truck cap when truck rates decrease. Over the past 12 months, truck rates have decreased at a rapid pace, especially on loads called by van equipment with primary equipment type BCOs. There does not seem to be any unusual factors driving the recent reduction in BCO truck count. 12-month rolling average turnover is currently about 37%, which is very similar to the 36% term rate Landstar experienced in 2019 during the most recent relatively comparable soft rate environment.

本季度，BCO 卡車數量減少了 261 輛卡車，與 2023 年第一季度的 472 輛卡車減少相比，相對有所改善。自 2022 年第二季度末以來，BCO 卡車總體數量減少了約 11%。當卡車費率下降時，BCO 卡車帽的周轉率通常會增加。在過去 12 個月中，卡車費率快速下降，特別是對於具有主要設備類型 BCO 的貨車設備調用的負載。近期 BCO 卡車數量減少似乎沒有任何異常因素。目前 12 個月滾動平均換手率約為 37%，這與 Landstar 在 2019 年最近相對可比的軟利率環境下經歷的 36% 期限利率非常相似。

I will now pass to Jim Todd to comment on other additional P&L metrics regarding the 2023 second quarter performance.

我現在將請 Jim Todd 評論有關 2023 年第二季度業績的其他額外損益指標。

Thanks, Jim. Jim has covered certain information on our 2023 second quarter, so I will cover various other second quarter financial information included in the press release. In the 2023 second quarter, gross profit was $139.7 million compared to gross profit of $208.1 million in the 2022 second quarter. Gross profit margin was 10.2% of revenue in the 2023 second quarter as compared to gross profit margin of 10.5% in the corresponding period of 2022. In 2023, second quarter, variable contribution was $198.2 million compared to $267.5 million in the 2022 second quarter. Variable contribution margin was 14.4% of revenue in the 2023 second quarter compared to 13.5% in the same period last year.

謝謝，吉姆。 Jim 報導了有關我們 2023 年第二季度的某些信息，因此我將報導新聞稿中包含的各種其他第二季度財務信息。 2023 年第二季度的毛利潤為 1.397 億美元，而 2022 年第二季度的毛利潤為 2.081 億美元。 2023 年第二季度的毛利率佔收入的10.2%，而2022 年同期的毛利率為10.5%。2023 年第二季度的可變貢獻為1.982 億美元，而2022 年第二季度的可變貢獻為2.675 億美元。 2023 年第二季度可變邊際貢獻佔收入的 14.4%，而去年同期為 13.5%。

The increase in variable contribution margin compared to the 2022 second quarter was primarily attributable to: one, an increased variable contribution margin on revenue generated by truck brokerage carriers as the rate paid to truck brokerage carriers in the 2023 second quarter was 170 basis points lower than the rate paid in the 2022 second quarter; and two, mix as an increased percentage of revenue was generated by BCO independent contractors which typically has a higher variable contribution margin than revenue generated by other modes of transportation.

與2022 年第二季度相比，可變邊際貢獻增加的主要原因是：一、卡車經紀公司產生的收入的可變邊際貢獻增加，因為2023 年第二季度支付給卡車經紀公司的費率比2023年第二季度低170 個基點。 2022年第二季度支付的費率；第二，混合，因為 BCO 獨立承包商產生的收入百分比增加，其可變貢獻邊際通常比其他運輸方式產生的收入更高。

Other operating costs were $13.5 million in the 2023 second quarter compared to $10.4 million in 2022. This increase was primarily due to an increased provision for contractor bad debt and increased trailing equipment maintenance costs, partially offset by increased gains on sales of Australian equipment. Insurance and claims costs were $29.8 million in the 2023 second quarter compared to $34.1 million in 2022. The decrease in insurance and claims cost as compared to 2022 was primarily attributable to a decreased severity of accidents during the 2023 period. However, total insurance and claims costs were 5.8% of BCO revenue in the 2023 period and 4.9% of BCO revenue in 2022 period. The 90 basis point increase in insurance and claims cost as compared to BCO revenue was almost entirely attributable to the 14% decrease in BCO revenue per loan. The sequential increase in insurance and claims cost as compared to the 2023 first fiscal quarter was primarily attributable to increased cargo claim expense.

2023 年第二季度的其他運營成本為1,350 萬美元，而2022 年為1,040 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於承包商壞賬撥備增加和跟踪設備維護成本增加，部分被澳大利亞設備銷售收益增加所抵消。 2023 年第二季度的保險和索賠成本為 2,980 萬美元，而 2022 年為 3,410 萬美元。與 2022 年相比，保險和索賠成本下降的主要原因是 2023 年期間事故嚴重程度下降。然而，保險和理賠總成本在 2023 年期間佔 BCO 收入的 5.8%，在 2022 年期間佔 BCO 收入的 4.9%。與 BCO 收入相比，保險和理賠成本增加了 90 個基點，幾乎完全歸因於每筆貸款的 BCO 收入下降了 14%。與 2023 年第一財季相比，保險和索賠成本連續增加，主要是由於貨物索賠費用增加。

Selling, general and administrative costs were $54.5 million in the 2023 second quarter compared to $59 million in 2022. The decrease in selling, general and administrative costs was primarily attributable to a decreased provision for compensation under the company's variable programs and a decreased provision for customer bad debt, partially offset by increased information technology costs and increased wages. In the 2023 second quarter, the provision for compensation under variable programs was $200,000 compared to $8.3 million in the 2022 second quarter. Depreciation and amortization was $14.9 million in the 2023 second quarter compared to $14.3 million in 2022.

2023 年第二季度的銷售、一般和管理成本為5,450 萬美元，而2022 年為5,900 萬美元。銷售、一般和管理成本減少的主要原因是公司可變計劃下的薪酬撥備減​​少以及為客戶提供的撥備減少壞賬，部分被信息技術成本增加和工資上漲所抵消。 2023 年第二季度，可變計劃下的薪酬撥備為 20 萬美元，而 2022 年第二季度為 830 萬美元。 2023 年第二季度的折舊和攤銷為 1,490 萬美元，而 2022 年為 1,430 萬美元。

This increase was due to increased depreciation on software applications resulting from continued investment in new and upgraded tools for use by agency capacity, partially offset by decreased depreciation on the company's trailer fleet. The effective income tax rate was 24.6% in both the 2023 and 2022 second quarters.

這一增長是由於對供機構能力使用的新工具和升級工具的持續投資導致軟件應用程序折舊增加，但部分被公司拖車車隊折舊減少所抵消。 2023年和2022年第二季度的有效所得稅率為24.6%。

Looking at our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $419 million. Cash flow from operations for the first half of 2023 was $192 million and cash capital expenditures were $13 million. Back to you, Jim.

從我們的資產負債表來看，本季度末我們的現金和短期投資為 4.19 億美元。 2023 年上半年運營現金流為 1.92 億美元，現金資本支出為 1300 萬美元。回到你身邊，吉姆。

Thanks, Jim. The 2022 second quarter made for a very difficult year-over-year comparison to the 2023 second quarter. Following the 2022 second quarter, 2022 third quarter truckload pricing and truckload volume both experienced below normal seasonal average sequential growth rates. One would expect us to make 2023 third quarter to 2022 third quarter comparison slightly less challenging than what we have faced during the two most recent quarters. However, to date, through the first few weeks of the 2023 third quarter, we have not seen significant consistency in truck revenue per load on a day-to-day basis. Accordingly, volatility in revenue per load and to a lesser degree, truckload volume make predicting near-term performance very challenging.

謝謝，吉姆。與 2023 年第二季度相比，2022 年第二季度的同比情況非常困難。繼 2022 年第二季度之後，2022 年第三季度的卡車裝載價格和卡車裝載量均低於正常季節性平均連續增長率。人們預計我們將使 2023 年第三季度與 2022 年第三季度的比較變得比最近兩個季度所面臨的挑戰稍小一些。然而，迄今為止，在 2023 年第三季度的前幾週，我們還沒有看到每日每裝載卡車收入的顯著一致性。因此，每次裝載收入的波動以及較小程度的卡車裝載量的波動使得預測近期業績變得非常具有挑戰性。

Yesterday's earnings release made note that early July-truckload comp was trending below historical sequential monthly patterns. Given the low start in truckload volume in the quarter, we have forecast sequential month-to-month patterns in truckload count to trend below normal seasonal patterns throughout the third quarter. Assuming we remain at below normal month-to-month seasonal trends, we expect truckload comp in the 2023 third quarter to be 16% to 18% and below the 2022 third quarter. We expect 2023 third quarter truckload pricing to be 10% to 12% below the 2022 third quarter. Given those estimates, the number of loads hauled via truck is expected to be approximately 6% below the 2023 second quarter compared to a normal seasonal pattern of minus 1%, and a revenue per truckload to be approximately 1.5% above the 2023 second quarter, slightly below normal seasonal patterns. We also expect revenue from our nontruck most to be similar to that of the 2023 second quarter.

昨天的收益報告指出，7 月初的卡車裝載比較趨勢低於歷史連續月度模式。鑑於本季度卡車裝載量的開局較低，我們預測整個第三季度卡車裝載量的逐月連續模式將低於正常的季節性模式。假設我們保持低於正常的逐月季節性趨勢，我們預計 2023 年第三季度的卡車裝載率將為 16% 至 18%，低於 2022 年第三季度。我們預計 2023 年第三季度整車定價將比 2022 年第三季度低 10% 至 12%。根據這些估計，卡車運輸的貨物數量預計將比 2023 年第二季度減少約 6%，而正常季節性模式為負 1%，每卡車裝載收入預計將比 2023 年第二季度增加約 1.5%。略低於正常的季節性模式。我們還預計非卡車業務的收入將與 2023 年第二季度相似。

Based on the assumptions mentioned, we expect revenue in the 2023 third quarter be in the range of $1.275 billion to $1.325 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.65 to $1.75. The 2023 third quarter guidance incorporates a variable contribution margin range of 14.4% to 14.6% and insurance and plant costs somewhat similar to 2023 first half as a percent of BCO revenue. We don't expect much change to overall freight economy in the 2023 third quarter compared to what we experienced in the 2023 first half.

根據上述假設，我們預計 2023 年第三季度收入將在 12.75 億美元至 13.25 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.65 美元至 1.75 美元之間。 2023 年第三季度指引包含 14.4% 至 14.6% 的可變邊際貢獻範圍，保險和工廠成本佔 BCO 收入的百分比與 2023 年上半年類似。與 2023 年上半年相比，我們預計 2023 年第三季度的整體貨運經濟不會發生太大變化。

Overall, though, demand for freight transportation is expected to remain relatively soft in the 2023 third quarter continued to drive truckload volumes significantly lower compared to the 2021 and 2022. Directionally, it is difficult to forecast truckload volume levels beyond the next few months as future economic conditions are very unpredictable. Regardless of the economic environment, Landstar's challenging year-over-year comparisons, the resiliency of Landstar's (inaudible) business model continues to generate significant free cash flow. Through the first half of 2023, Landstar generated free cash flow of $179 million.

不過，總體而言，預計2023 年第三季度貨運需求將保持相對疲軟，繼續導致卡車貨運量較2021 年和2022 年大幅下降。從方向上看，很難預測未來幾個月之後的卡車貨運量水平。經濟狀況非常難以預測。無論經濟環境如何，Landstar 的同比比較都充滿挑戰，Landstar 的（聽不清）商業模式的彈性繼續產生大量的自由現金流。截至 2023 年上半年，Landstar 產生的自由現金流為 1.79 億美元。

Additionally, at the beginning of my remarks, I discussed the significant unprecedented favorable impact of pandemic-driven consumer demand and supply chain disruption had on the company's revenue in fiscal years '21 and '22. Although we're in a freight cycle that vary significantly from 2021 to 2020, where revenue increased over those 2 years by 80%. Assuming we achieve the revenue provided in the third quarter guidance plus a similar amount of revenue during the fourth quarter, fiscal year 2023 revenue will exceed pre-pandemic 2019 by 30% to 35%.

此外，在演講開始時，我討論了大流行驅動的消費者需求和供應鏈中斷對公司 21 和 22 財年收入產生的前所未有的重大有利影響。儘管從 2021 年到 2020 年，我們所處的貨運週期變化很大，但這兩年的收入增長了 80%。假設我們實現第三季度指導中提供的收入加上第四季度類似的收入，2023 財年的收入將比大流行前的 2019 年增長 30% 至 35%。

And with that, Bill, we'll open to questions.

比爾，接下來我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) We have the first question coming from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Jon Chappell。

Jim, thanks for all that detail. Between trying to -- I know you don't unpack by line item, but given the fact that van is such a big mover of the needle. And you mentioned that some of the more difficult, I think comparisons are there. I'm just trying to figure out, is it bottoming from a load perspective. It seems like maybe the third quarter may be the bottoming from the load perspective, whereas the revenue per load may have already bottomed in the second quarter. Is that the right way to think about that just from using the van and backing into your bigger picture guidance time in the quarter?

吉姆，謝謝你提供的所有細節。在嘗試之間——我知道你不會按行項目拆包，但考慮到貨車的推動力如此之大。還有你提到的一些比較困難的，我認為是有比較的。我只是想弄清楚，從負載的角度來看，它是否已經觸底。從負載角度來看，第三季度可能是觸底的，而每負載收入可能已經在第二季度觸底。僅從使用貨車並回到本季度的宏觀指導時間來思考這個問題是正確的方法嗎？

I would like to be able to confirm that. But as we mentioned in my prepareds, we actually are anticipating some continued seasonal softness on both the van and flat, if you break it down to that level of detail because we've seen nothing to indicate that we're going to start seeing either the bottom, which we hope we are at the bottom or any acceleration of growth off of this where we are today. So I would say that both equipment types are kind of generally trending in the same direction. And it's not a significant drop up. We're just where you might see rates typically go up 1% into the third quarter, we're seeing maybe soften or be 0.5% or 1% down. It's not -- there's not significant. It's not like it was, but it's still trending seasonally softer on both equipment types as compared to the history that we've had.

我希望能夠證實這一點。但正如我們在準備工作中提到的，如果您將其分解到詳細程度，我們實際上預計貨車和公寓都會出現持續的季節性疲軟，因為我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們將開始看到任何一種情況底部，我們希望我們處於底部或任何加速增長的地方，我們今天的位置。所以我想說，這兩種設備類型總體上趨勢相同。而且這並不是一個顯著的下降。您可能會看到利率在第三季度通常會上漲 1%，但我們可能會看到利率可能會軟化或下降 0.5% 或 1%。這並不重要。現在情況有所不同，但與我們的歷史記錄相比，這兩種設備類型的季節性趨勢仍然較為疲軟。

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, there's a lot of disruption in the market right now, probably more so than any time since the spring of 2020. Have you seen any changes in the sentiment around from your customers? And again, this kind of relates to any segment. We had companies potentially going out of business, potential strikes. I think free flow shift from one side of the country to the other. Any kind of view from your customers that they're in a bit more of a rush for capacity than maybe over the last 12 months? And two, any direct benefit to Landstar specifically from some of these moving chess pieces?

好的。這很有幫助。其次，目前市場出現了很多混亂，可能比 2020 年春季以來的任何時候都要嚴重。您是否看到客戶的情緒有任何變化？再說一遍，這與任何細分市場相關。我們的公司可能會倒閉，也可能會發生罷工。我認為自由流動從國家的一側轉移到另一側。您的客戶是否認為他們比過去 12 個月更加急需容量？第二，這些移動棋子對 Landstar 有何直接好處？

I'd say two of the bigger disruptors that have been discussed recently are a little more LTL parcel type businesses that don't directly affect us other than the fact that if something does occur with one of those and we need to move freight between DCs for a different carrier that could impact us. But I wouldn't say it's very significant. As the shift in geographic regions, I think those were -- as stuff was moving to the East Coast over the last few years of West Coast, so I don't think there's any impact there directly that hasn't already occurred for us. So I'm not seeing that. When you speak to -- there are some things happening.

我想說，最近討論的兩個更大的干擾因素是更多的零擔包裹類型業務，除瞭如果其中一個確實發生問題並且我們需要在配送中心之間轉移貨物這一事實之外，它們不會直接影響我們對於可能影響我們的不同運營商。但我不會說這非常重要。隨著地理區域的變化，我認為這些是——因為過去幾年西海岸的東西正在轉移到東海岸，所以我認為那裡沒有對我們產生任何尚未發生的直接影響。所以我沒有看到這一點。當你說話時——就會發生一些事情。

You talk about carrier bankruptcies or carriers leaving the market or the number of available trucks out there. In very isolated areas right now, we are seeing trucks push rates up a little bit, which we haven't seen probably since the end of 2022, but it's not across the board. It's very specific to probably West Coast, where they're dealing with some regulatory issues on how many trucks are out there in independent contractor status. Other than that, it's kind of the same as it's been for the last 6 or 8 months. So nothing special really driving us to have any considerations of an upward tick yet.

您談論了承運人破產或承運人離開市場或可用卡車的數量。目前，在非常偏遠的地區，我們看到卡車運價略有上漲，這可能是自 2022 年底以來我們從未見過的，但並不是全面的。這可能是西海岸的具體情況，他們正在處理一些監管問題，即有多少卡車處於獨立承包商狀態。除此之外，與過去 6 或 8 個月的情況基本相同。因此，目前還沒有什麼特別的事情真正促使我們考慮上漲。

We will move to the next person coming from the Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們將轉向來自沃爾夫研究斯科特小組的下一個人。

Just want to clarify a couple of things first. So volumes starting July are underperforming seasonality. Jim, you're assuming that they continue to underperform seasonality in August and September. Is that right?

我想先澄清幾件事。因此，從 7 月開始的銷量表現低於季節性。吉姆，您假設他們在八月和九月的表現仍然低於季節性。是對的嗎？

Yes. That is absolutely right.

是的。這是絕對正確的。

And the thought process on that is...

其思考過程是......

To be honest, we missed the second quarter when we released April, [think and] what we projected when we put the second quarter guidance together with sequential improvement in normal seasonal patterns. And since we haven't seen that in 6 or 7 months, we just -- we played a little conservative on trending seasonally kind of where it's been is missing the seasonal trends by 1% or 2%. So that was the logic. Do I see patterns? Can I guess, August? No. There's nothing indicating other than trends, to be honest with you, Scott.

老實說，我們在四月份發佈時錯過了第二季度，[思考和]我們將第二季度指導與正常季節性模式的連續改善結合起來時的預測。由於我們已經有 6 或 7 個月沒有看到這種情況了，所以我們對季節性趨勢採取了一點保守的態度，即與季節性趨勢相差 1% 或 2%。這就是邏輯。我看到模式了嗎？我能猜一下嗎，奧古斯特？不。老實說，斯科特，除了趨勢之外沒有任何其他跡象。

Okay. Fair enough. And then on the yellow question, do you -- are you seeing any pickup in your substitute line haul business? Do you think you would start to see that as maybe some carriers that picking up share need some increased line haul capacity?

好的。很公平。然後關於黃色問題，您是否看到替代線路運輸業務有所回升？您是否認為您會開始意識到，也許一些獲得份額的運營商需要增加線路運輸能力？

I would expect, yes, we would see that, but I would say it's clearly not going to be material to any -- to the third or fourth quarter. It's not -- by the end of the third quarter, if we get something we probably wouldn't even be something that hit our radar even talk about. So not material.

我預計，是的，我們會看到這一點，但我想說，這顯然對任何人都不會產生重大影響——到第三或第四季度。事實並非如此——到第三季度末，如果我們得到了一些東西，我們可能甚至不會成為我們關注的東西。所以不是物質的。

And then just big picture, taking a step back. You've had good views, calls of where we are in the cycle. Do you -- are we at the bottom? Are you comfortable enough to say that? Do you see that? What's your view?

然後只是大局觀，退後一步。你們對我們所處的周期有很好的看法和呼籲。你認為我們處於底部嗎？你敢這麼說嗎？你看到了嗎？你的看法是什麼？

I would like to say that. I don't know if I can, to be honest with you, because as we just talked about, is our seasonal trends continue to be below normal, which would indicate that we're not there yet. Now I'd say that the seasonal -- the abnormal below seasonal trends has slowed a little bit, but we're still tracking at slightly below seasonal trends. So I would not declare a bottom yet. You know I'm a cycle guy. I believe in the cycles, especially because we're spot mark -- you got that -- it's not just demand and the number of trucks in the system, it actually has to do with the contract and spot pricing, right?

我想說的是。老實說，我不知道是否可以，因為正如我們剛才談到的，我們的季節性趨勢是否繼續低於正常水平，這表明我們還沒有達到這一目標。現在我想說，季節性——低於季節性趨勢的異常已經放緩了一點，但我們仍在跟踪略低於季節性趨勢。所以我還不會宣布底部。你知道我是一個騎自行車的人。我相信週期，特別是因為我們是現貨——你明白了——這不僅僅是需求和系統中卡車的數量，它實際上與合同和現貨定價有關，對嗎？

And spot pricing and contracts are pretty far away right now. But we're still seeing a little more pressure on the contract side and the spot prices aren't coming up yet. But I think on that when I talk about the 6 to 8 quarter trends, I am still a believer that puts us in sometime the end of 2023, beginning of 2024. And I'm still a believer that happens. But who knows what happens with demand. To me, the big question is does the demand continue to slip? Or is it going to actually going to start to improve, coming off this where we are right now. That's kind of where I hesitate on giving an answer on if we're at the bottom.

目前距離現貨定價和合同還很遙遠。但我們仍然看到合同方面的壓力更大，而且現貨價格還沒有上漲。但我認為，當我談論 6 到 8 個季度的趨勢時，我仍然相信我們會在 2023 年底、2024 年初的某個時間出現。而且我仍然相信這種情況會發生。但誰知道需求會發生什麼。對我來說，最大的問題是需求是否繼續下滑？或者說它真的會開始改善，擺脫我們現在的處境。這就是我猶豫是否要回答我們是否處於底部的地方。

So hopeful, but visibility is low.

充滿希望，但能見度很低。

Okay Yes.

好的，是的。

We will move now to the next question coming from the line of Jack Atkins of Stephens.

我們現在轉向來自斯蒂芬斯的傑克·阿特金斯的下一個問題。

So I guess maybe if we could kind of go back to the cycle thoughts for a moment, I'd love to kind of take a look at this from a capacity perspective. And Joe, is there anything maybe you can kind of help us with in terms of thinking about the decrease that you're seeing both in terms of the -- on the BCO front and in the active broker -- third-party broker carriers. Can you maybe talk about what you think is driving that? Is that retirements maybe? Or is that the effect of capacity attrition?

所以我想，如果我們能暫時回到循環的想法上來，我很樂意從容量的角度來看待這個問題。 Joe，您是否可以幫助我們思考您所看到的 BCO 方面和活躍經紀商方面的第三方經紀商的減少情況。您能談談您認為是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？這可能是退休嗎？或者說這是產能損耗的影響？

Yes, Jack, I think what's driving it is kind of all of the above. I think what's primarily the driver is the demand environment and the rate environment. I think Jim said in his remarks that when rate declines, we tend to see more terminations. And I really think that's -- we react very, I think, quickly on the BCO front to changes in demand and price. And I'm just going to go back here. I've got some -- just some quick numbers from back to '17 as we saw the economy strengthen from '16 into '17. So we added 257 trucks in '17. Continued strength into '18. We added 903 that year. It softened a little bit in '19. We lost 356. We all know what happened in 2020. We added 748 in the back 3 quarters of the year. We added 873 in '21 because it was a good year. We lost 583 mostly in the back half of last year, and we're down 733 in the first two quarters of this year.

是的，傑克，我認為驅動它的因素是上述所有因素。我認為主要的驅動因素是需求環境和利率環境。我認為吉姆在他的講話中說過，當利率下降時，我們往往會看到更多的終止。我真的認為，我們在 BCO 方面對需求和價格變化的反應非常快。我正要回到這裡。我有一些——只是一些從 17 年開始的快速數據，因為我們看到經濟從 16 年到 17 年有所加強。因此，我們在 17 年增加了 257 輛卡車。 18 年繼續保持強勢。那年我們增加了903。 19 年情況有所緩和。我們失去了 356 人。我們都知道 2020 年發生了什麼。我們在今年後 3 個季度增加了 748 人。我們在 21 年增加了 873 名，因為那是很好的一年。去年下半年我們損失了 583 架，今年前兩個季度我們損失了 733 架。

So our BCOs just tend to be very reactionary to that rate and pricing. And so a lot of them -- some of them have retired for sure. Some took the opportunity to sell their equipment when it was at such a premium and decided to either retire or do something different or go drive for somebody else. We saw some of that. We saw repairs and the difficulty in the cost was a pretty big impact for the last few quarters. That's lessening a little bit. It's really -- it's kind of all of the above kind of answer to the question, Jack. From a BCO perspective. On the carrier side, the net revocations are moving negative. I think the number of carriers that people thought might be leaving the industry maybe a little lighter than it -- than some were thinking, and I would agree with that.

因此，我們的 BCO 往往對該費率和定價非常反應。他們中的很多人——其中一些人肯定已經退休了。有些人趁機賣掉他們的設備，因為價格如此之高，並決定要么退休，要么做一些不同的事情，要么為別人開車。我們看到了其中一些。我們看到了維修工作，成本方面的困難對過去幾個季度產生了相當大的影響。這一點點減少了。這確實是對這個問題的上述所有答案，傑克。從 BCO 的角度來看。在運營商方面，淨撤銷量呈負數。我認為人們認為可能離開該行業的運營商數量可能比一些人想像的要少一些，我同意這一點。

I just don't know if the data that we get is as accurate and timely as the BCO data that, obviously, that we have and that there's new -- still new carriers coming into the system at a rate that's a little bit above where maybe you think it would. So I don't know if that's optimism. I don't know if that's California, where you can't be an owner operator, you got to be on your own authority. There's some impact there, I think. But generally, I mean, if you look at like the trucking conditions index from FTR or anything of that sort, it's just a tough time. The ATRI data speaks to that. I mean it's just a tough time I think, to be out there. And so I think that's what's leading to some of the turnover and the reluctance to come into the market as it stands today if you're a small carrier or an owner-operator who might look at Landstar.

我只是不知道我們獲得的數據是否像 BCO 數據一樣準確和及時，顯然，我們擁有這些數據，而且還有新的運營商以略高於現有速度的速度進入系統。也許你認為會的。所以我不知道這是否樂觀。我不知道加州是不是這樣，在那裡你不能成為業主經營者，你必須擁有自己的權力。我認為那裡有一些影響。但總的來說，我的意思是，如果你看看 FTR 的卡車運輸條件指數或類似的東西，就會發現這是一段艱難的時期。 ATRI 的數據說明了這一點。我的意思是，我認為這是一段艱難的時期。因此，我認為，如果您是一家小型承運商或可能會關注 Landstar 的業主運營商，這就是導致部分營業額和不願進入市場的原因。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then I guess, maybe, Jim, for you. Any sort of indication from your customers around peak season? I know it may be still early, but are you hearing anything around commentary from them on what they might need from you? How to prepare for that? Or is it just kind of still TBD?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我想，也許，吉姆，適合你。旺季期間您的客戶有什麼跡象嗎？我知道現在可能還為時過早，但是您是否聽到他們對您可能需要什麼進行評論？對此要如何準備？或者只是尚未確定？

I think it's all TBD. I think from a customer standpoint, I think they're probably about as confident as we are coming into peak season. I will give you one little thing and don't -- this is not a big thing, but we hear that there's -- one thing that during peak season, we get a request for trailing equipment coming into the end of the year, then it's -- the request for trailing equipment has been way, way down over the last probably 2, 3 quarters, but we did see a slight increase in request returns going into the fourth quarter. But that's all I got. Other than that, it just seems like we're going to just grind through this through the end of the year.

我認為這一切都待定。我認為從客戶的角度來看，我認為他們可能和我們進入旺季一樣有信心。我會給你一件小事，但不要——這不是什麼大事，但我們聽說有——一件事，在旺季期間，我們收到了在年底前提供尾隨設備的請求，然後在過去的兩三個季度裡，對尾隨設備的需求已經大幅下降，但我們確實看到進入第四季度的請求回報略有增加。但這就是我所得到的。除此之外，我們似乎要在今年年底前解決這個問題。

We will move now to the next question coming from the line of Bascome Majors of Susquehanna.

現在我們將討論來自薩斯奎哈納巴斯科姆梅傑斯隊的下一個問題。

Jim, your self-described cycle guy here. If I look at how you've operated through cycles historically, usually, when you have down years, Landstar's top line and bottom line recover pretty quickly in the year after, if you look at, say, 2014 or second half of '20 or even some earlier periods. But -- there is one analog around the peak of the mid-2000 cycle where things kind of flatlined for a few years and really didn't go anywhere. I'm curious as you look at the cycle that we're coming out today, is there any rhyme or reason to some of these historical analogs? What does it feel like compared to downturns you've seen in your history? And are you cautious or concerned that we might have an extended downturn that really doesn't have a snapback that you typically see after a down year?

吉姆，你自稱是自行車手。如果我看看你在歷史上是如何度過週期的，通常，當你經歷低迷的年份時，Landstar 的營收和利潤會在下一年恢復得相當快，如果你看看2014 年或20 世紀下半年或甚至一些早期時期。但是，在 2000 年中期週期的頂峰附近有一個類似的情況，在接下來的幾年裡，情況趨於平緩，而且實際上沒有任何進展。我很好奇，當你看看我們今天發布的周期時，這些歷史類比有什麼押韻或理由嗎？與您歷史上經歷過的低迷時期相比，這感覺如何？您是否謹慎或擔心我們可能會經歷長期的低迷，而這種低迷實際上不會出現通常在低迷一年後看到的快速反彈？

Well, very unusual downward year this year, right, because the peak to trough is bigger than it's ever been. So it's really hard to gauge where the next peak is. I mean, I think that's what we're trying to figure out, and we try and figure out internally. You look at truck rates right now and where they are over the next 12 to 18 months, I could see employment back 10%, which is pretty beneficial. The peak to trough over the last probably years has been much more significant than it was prior to that. And I'm not sure if that's due to access to pricing information coming from the DATs or stuff like that. Because if I go back in 2010, '11, we're getting bids from 12 shippers, and we're putting our pricing in their use. Now they can see all the pricing be that may be driving this higher or lower. So my expectation is we're not going to see near the spike, the 2021 to 2022 peak, spike when it grew when van pricing grew 76%.

嗯，今年的下降非常不尋常，對吧，因為從高峰到低谷的幅度比以往任何時候都要大。所以很難判斷下一個峰值在哪裡。我的意思是，我認為這就是我們正在努力解決的問題，我們也在內部嘗試解決這個問題。你看看現在的卡車費率以及未來 12 到 18 個月的情況，我可以看到就業率回升 10%，這是非常有利的。過去可能幾年的高峰到低谷比之前要重要得多。我不確定這是否是由於訪問了來自 DAT 或類似內容的定價信息。因為如果我回到 2010 年，即 11 年，我們會收到 12 個托運人的投標，我們會將我們的定價供他們使用。現在他們可以看到所有可能推動價格上漲或下跌的定價。因此，我的預期是，我們不會在 2021 年至 2022 年的峰值附近看到貨車價格增長 76% 時出現的峰值。

But I would expect you're going to see better than those flat years just based on the performance here and the things we've done with whether it's technology and the driving agent sales and recruiting more agents into the system. Other than that, it's really hard to project that. We really need demand to pick up and from the consumer side. But I think we're well prepared with the new tools. We rolled out pricing tools. We're building efficiencies within the agent's office so they can do more with the same number of people they have. That's really our goal is to make sure when this thing turns, we can attack volume better than we have in the past.

但我預計，僅僅根據這裡的表現以及我們在技術和推動代理商銷售以及招募更多代理商進入系統方面所做的事情，您會看到比那些平淡的年份更好的情況。除此之外，很難預測這一點。我們確實需要來自消費者方面的需求回升。但我認為我們已經為新工具做好了充分準備。我們推出了定價工具。我們正在提高代理辦公室的效率，以便他們可以用相同數量的人員做更多的事情。我們的目標實際上是確保當事情發生轉變時，我們可以比過去更好地攻擊數量。

I don't know which Jim wants to answer this, but can -- whenever that return to, and maybe not quite as fast as 2021 recovery, but still -- but not a flat line. When that comes, can you walk us through how you flex the model on the upside financially? What needs to come back from incentive comp or other costs that are kind of out of the system in the downturn? Just how do we think about the leverage you get when that revenue line starts pointing up again?

我不知道哪位吉姆想回答這個問題，但可以——無論什麼時候恢復，也許不像 2021 年復蘇那麼快，但仍然——但不是一條平坦的線。屆時，您能否向我們介紹一下如何在財務上改善該模式？在經濟低迷時期，激勵補償或其他成本需要從系統中收回什麼？當收入線再次開始上升時，我們如何看待您獲得的槓桿作用？

Well, one thing we've always talked about is incremental -- as we grow the variable contribution, which is -- I'm an old guy, so I'm not allowed to refer to it as gross profit, so I have to call variable contribution. We talk about the leverage we get off of growth and variable contribution, and 2022, clearly hopefully going to be our -- 2023 clearly hopefully going to be our trough year. We believe that we can push 70% of the growth in incremental growth and direct contribution through to the bottom -- to the operating income rate. That's our goal. One thing you got to think about though is coming off the year like 2023, where our incentive compensation, our variable programs are relatively low or almost 0 sometimes.

好吧，我們一直談論的一件事是增量——隨著我們增加可變貢獻，也就是說——我是個老傢伙，所以我不被允許將其稱為毛利潤，所以我必須稱為變量貢獻。我們談論我們從增長和可變貢獻中獲得的槓桿作用，2022 年，顯然希望將成為我們的——2023 年顯然希望將成為我們的低谷年。我們相信，我們可以將70%的增量增長直接貢獻到底部——對營業收入率的貢獻。這就是我們的目標。不過，你必須考慮的一件事是，像 2023 年這樣的一年，我們的激勵薪酬、我們的可變計劃相對較低，有時甚至幾乎為零。

We do have that headwind going into the 2024 year. But coming to 2025, when you start booking that things start to grow again, we do believe we can get back to that 70% pass-through of incremental -- of the growth in variable contribution due to bottom line. So there's a lot of leverage in the organization because the infrastructure is built, 70 or so percent of our SG&A is head count, but we don't really have to grow headcount too much as we put more volume on top of this business model. So I'd say we would -- I wouldn't project for 2024 being a 70% push through because we do have that variable compensation programs that actually travel with our earnings. But in 2025, I think the goal is to go back to pushing 70% growth of variable contribution. And Jim can talk about the incentive comp and the variable contribution -- variable compensation programs and what kind of headwind we're talking about.

進入 2024 年，我們確實面臨著逆風。但到 2025 年，當你開始預計事情會再次開始增長時，我們確實相信我們可以恢復到 70% 的增量傳遞——由於底線而導致的可變貢獻增長。因此，組織中有很多槓桿作用，因為基礎設施已經建成，我們SG&A 的70% 左右是員工人數，但我們實際上不需要增加太多員工人數，因為我們在這種業務模式的基礎上投入了更多的數量。所以我想說，我不會預計 2024 年會實現 70%，因為我們確實有可變薪酬計劃，這些計劃實際上與我們的收入掛鉤。但到2025年，我認為目標是重新推動可變貢獻增長70%。吉姆可以談論激勵補償和可變貢獻——可變補償計劃以及我們正在談論的逆風。

Yes, Bascome. So if you recall, back in February, I gave an $18 million to $20 million tailwind in a bear case scenario. And in first quarter, I updated that to $16 million to $18 million. Well, now second quarter, I can say $20 million is best case now on tailwinds, '23 versus '22. And as such, flipping to '24 to Jim's point, at kind of a onetime, if we hit our numbers, I would anticipate about an $11 million on those programs, '24 versus '23.

是的，巴斯科姆。因此，如果您還記得的話，早在 2 月份，我就在悲觀情況下給予了 1800 萬至 2000 萬美元的順風投資。在第一季度，我將其更新為 1600 萬至 1800 萬美元。好吧，現在第二季度，我可以說 2000 萬美元是目前最好的情況，“23 年與 22 年”相比。因此，按照吉姆的觀點，翻轉到“24”，如果我們達到我們的數字，我預計這些項目的收入約為 1100 萬美元，“24”與“23”相比。

That's the biggest variable for our cost. Well, that and the unpredictability of the insurance line, everything else is pretty constant other than a little bit of inflation. You've got inflation on the maintenance on trailers. We had a little bit of inflation on wages and other than that. But typically, the infrastructure is kind of set, except for the unpredictability of the insurance line and the variable compensation program.

這是我們成本的最大變量。好吧，加上保險額度的不可預測性，除了一點點通貨膨脹之外，其他一切都相當穩定。拖車的維護費用增加了。除此之外，我們的工資和其他方面有一點通貨膨脹。但通常情況下，除了保險額度和可變補償計劃的不可預測性之外，基礎設施是固定的。

We will move to the next question coming from the line of Stephanie Moore of Jefferies.

我們將轉向杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 提出的下一個問題。

I appreciate all the type of color that you've given. So -- Thus far. And I think it would be helpful. I think in the past, you definitely have talked about where Landstar can often maybe lag the market maybe for various reasons, how you called out, whether it's agents response times or dropping of trailers, things like that. So maybe -- can you talk a little bit about in the event we are seeing a turn in the cycle broadly from an industry standpoint, when it would start to be a little bit more apparent for you guys, if that makes sense.

我很欣賞您提供的所有類型的顏色。所以——到目前為止。我認為這會有幫助。我想在過去，您肯定談到過 Landstar 可能由於各種原因而經常落後於市場，您如何呼籲，無論是代理商響應時間還是拖車的掉落，諸如此類。所以，也許 - 如果我們從行業的角度來看，我們看到了周期的廣泛轉變，那麼對於你們來說，什麼時候它會開始變得更加明顯，如果這有意義的話，您能談談嗎？

Well, we watch a lot of the industry data that everybody else watches, right, whether it's coming up a DAT or the FDR data or things like that. We try and track -- now when you look at our revenue per mile compared to the industry data, we kind of haul premium freight a little bit on the BCO side. So a little higher but tend to trend in similar directions on a slight lag. The lag is maybe 30 days. You'd see that maybe the pricing is looking at the industry is starting to climb a little bit, but we're still relatively flat.

嗯，我們觀察了很多其他人都在觀察的行業數據，無論是 DAT 還是 FDR 數據或類似的數據。我們嘗試跟踪——現在，當你將我們每英里的收入與行業數據進行比較時，我們會發現我們在 BCO 方面運輸了一點溢價貨運。所以稍微高一點，但趨勢趨向於類似的方向，但略有滯後。滯後時間可能是 30 天。您會發現，行業的定價可能開始略有上升，但我們仍然相對持平。

We tend to not react fast enough on both sides on the downside or the upside. So if we start to see tick ups in that industry data, we probably lag that by a month or 2. But right now, we're not -- you're not seeing much. The only other positive sign we had actually, I think it was the first time in 15 months, BCO revenue per mile, which excludes fuel, actually ticked up from May to June, all right? So there's another small thing we saw that kind of could imply that maybe we're seeing the end of the downturn, but we're not confident enough to say that because it was 1 month. So we see that. We think a little bit, hey, look, we've seen the positive trends on the van revenue per mile on the BCO side. But it's 1 month that we're not confident yet that it's going to stay. That kind of stuff we watch. And it's mostly on the rate side. The volume side is up to us to drive volume, right? And demand will drive our volumes a little bit, but we're out there trying to sell.

我們往往對下行或上行雙方的反應都不夠快。因此，如果我們開始看到該行業數據有所上升，我們可能會滯後一兩個月。但現在，我們並沒有看到太多。實際上，我們唯一的另一個積極跡像是，我認為這是 15 個月來的第一次，每英里 BCO 收入（不包括燃油）從 5 月到 6 月實際上有所上升，好嗎？因此，我們看到的另一件小事可能意味著我們可能會看到經濟衰退的結束，但我們沒有足夠的信心這麼說，因為已經過去了一個月。所以我們看到了這一點。我們想了一下，嘿，看，我們已經看到了 BCO 方面每英里貨車收入的積極趨勢。但 1 個月過去了，我們還沒有信心它會持續下去。我們看的就是這類東西。主要是在利率方面。音量方面取決於我們來驅動音量，對嗎？需求將稍微推動我們的銷量，但我們正在努力銷售。

Got it. No, I appreciate it. And then just my follow-up, I wanted to touch a little bit on capital allocation and maybe if there has been any kind of change in the strategy, just given that there appear to be kind of a void of share repurchases in the second quarter, which seems a little unlike you guys. So just maybe an updated thoughts on share repos and normal capital allocation.

知道了。不，我很感激。然後是我的後續行動，我想談談資本配置，也許策略有任何變化，因為第二季度似乎沒有股票回購，這看起來有點不像你們。因此，也許只是關於股票回購和正常資本配置的最新想法。

Stephanie, no change, same approach, as when we are price sensitive and we don't chase run-ups. We'll be patient and the cost of being patient is a lot less today than it was 12, 18, 24 months ago.

斯蒂芬妮，沒有改變，同樣的方法，就像我們對價格敏感並且不追逐上漲時一樣。我們會保持耐心，而今天保持耐心的成本比 12、18、24 個月前要少得多。

We will move now to the next person, who is Amit of Deutsche Bank.

現在我們轉向下一個人，他是德意志銀行的阿米特。

This is Ben Moore calling in for Amit. I wanted to ask a little further about your BCO cal down to the[97%] [100%] handle. It looks like in 4Q '19, it lagged down further at the time of [95%] handle and then 1Q '20 COVID led down further to a [94%] handle. What would you say the current 97 handle that's signaling to you, what could point to with respect to where we are in the cycle? Could it lag down further? Do you sense that, that might be the bottom?

我是本·摩爾 (Ben Moore) 呼叫阿米特 (Amit)。我想進一步詢問一下您的 BCO 校準，直至 [97%] [100%] 手柄。看起來在 19 年第 4 季度，它在 [95%] 處理時進一步滯後，然後在 20 年第 1 季度，新冠疫情導致進一步下跌到 [94%] 處理。您認為當前的 97 手柄正在向您發出什麼信號，這可能表明我們處於週期中的哪個位置？還能進一步落後嗎？你是否感覺到，這可能是底部？

Yes, Ben, I think in July, we're seeing a little bit further decline, but I would -- in Q2, overall, I think we saw a slower net decline. I would like to think we'll see something similar in Q3. And then really, again, depending on demand and price, maybe we hope to flatten out in Q4. But right now, Q2 is slowing that decline. Our adds are improving sequentially, additions of new equipment, both sequentially and year-over-year, our terminations are improving sequentially, but still well behind the prior year, and our utilization is improving. So BCO utilization is improving. It was minus 5% in Q1, it's minus 3% in Q2. And in the month of June, it was actually flat to prior year. So hopefully, that's a good trend line that continues based on the macro environment and what happens with demand. But I think we could be coming close to the bottom by year-end.

是的，本，我認為在 7 月份，我們會看到進一步的下降，但我會——在第二季度，總體而言，我認為我們看到了較慢的淨下降。我想我們會在第三季度看到類似的情況。然後，實際上，根據需求和價格，也許我們希望在第四季度趨於平穩。但目前，第二季度的下降速度正在放緩。我們的增加量正在連續改善，新設備的添加量連續和逐年增加，我們的終端數量正在連續改善，但仍遠遠落後於上一年，而且我們的利用率正在改善。因此，BCO 利用率正在提高。第一季度為-5%，第二季度為-3%。而在六月份，實際上與去年同期持平。因此，希望這是一條良好的趨勢線，根據宏觀環境和需求變化繼續下去。但我認為到年底我們可能會接近底部。

Great. And kind of piggybacking on a question earlier on the rest of the industry, just focusing on the yellow situation, would you say it might be benefiting you in terms of outsourced linehaul for truckload and the rails portion that you have, not just the LTL freight? And if so, what would you expect the cadence of this freight in terms of finding new carriers, could it be a few months to settle?

偉大的。順便提一下行業其他部門早些時候提出的一個問題，只關注黃色的情況，你會說這可能會給你帶來卡車裝載和鐵路部分的外包線路運輸方面的好處，而不僅僅是零擔貨運嗎？ ？如果是這樣，您預計在尋找新承運人方面的貨運節奏是怎樣的，是否需要幾個月的時間才能解決？

We don't anticipate any significant volume coming to us from any kind of yellow bankruptcy or anything like that. There might be something, but like I said. I can't imagine something we'd be talking about moving the needle in the third quarter, or for the year, actually. Our relationship in that arena isn't like it is with other than some of the other parcel and small package carriers.

我們預計任何類型的黃色破產或類似事件都不會帶來任何重大交易量。可能有什麼，但就像我說的。我無法想像我們會在第三季度或今年談論什麼事情。我們在該領域的關係與其他一些包裹和小包裹承運商的關係不同。

We will move now to the next person, who is Bruce Chan of Stifel.

我們現在轉向下一個人，他是 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

Jim, maybe getting away from the cycle a little bit where call it, 5 years and a couple of cycles past the (inaudible) of digital brokerage, and we're seeing maybe a new kind of tech disruption dejour in AI. So I wanted to ask you, I guess, number one, do you see much potential for disruption from AI in either your business or in the brokerage industry? And are there any early investments or exploratory investment you can make here on behalf of your agents?

吉姆，也許稍微遠離這個所謂的周期，五年又幾個週期過去了（聽不清）數字經紀業，我們可能會看到人工智能領域一種新型的技術顛覆。所以我想問你，我想，第一，你認為人工智能對你的業務或經紀行業有很大的顛覆潛力嗎？您可以代表您的代理商在這裡進行任何早期投資或探索性投資嗎？

Yes. I would say that you get paid to move freight from point A to point B, right? And it's how efficiently and effectively you communicate the data back and forth between the truck and the shipper and pricing. So the AI technology to me is more about improving communications and efficiency and how you communicate between the carrier and the customer and satisfy their needs. But remember what we get paid to do is pick up freight at point A and move at a point B and AI does not change that unless you talk about autonomous vehicles. We are -- I mean, we have a team of people in the building that are actually working on improving our efficiencies within whether it's call volumes or pricing tools or how quickly we can get credit out to the carriers and how we communicate with customers. Absolutely, we are on it.

是的。我想說的是，你可以通過將貨物從 A 點運到 B 點來獲得報酬，對吧？這就是您在卡車和托運人之間來回傳遞數據和定價的效率和效果。因此，人工智能技術對我來說更多的是改善溝通和效率，以及如何在運營商和客戶之間進行溝通並滿足他們的需求。但請記住，我們獲得報酬的任務是在 A 點提貨並在 B 點移動，人工智能不會改變這一點，除非你談論自動駕駛汽車。我的意思是，我們的大樓裡有一個團隊，他們實際上致力於提高我們的效率，無論是呼叫量還是定價工具，或者我們向運營商獲得信用的速度以及我們與客戶的溝通方式。當然，我們正在努力。

Do I think it's anything different than Uber are those guys coming in and saying they're going to disrupt the industry and disintermediate brokers. I don't think that's there. I think what you got to do is just keep up with the latest technologies. And I think everybody is doing the same thing. If you recall, blockchain being a big thing and everybody got on that bandwagon for a while. AI has probably got more. It has definitely got more usefulness than what blockchain had, but we're on it. I don't -- but I don't think there's -- one thing we talk a lot about here is the accurate spot market price and predictions, right? And you use all these historical stuff, you get their algorithms on top of it.

我認為這與 Uber 有什麼不同嗎？那些人進來並說他們將顛覆這個行業並取消中間商。我不認為那是那裡。我認為你要做的就是跟上最新的技術。我認為每個人都在做同樣的事情。如果你還記得的話，區塊鍊是一件大事，每個人都曾一度追隨過這股潮流。人工智能可能已經得到了更多。它肯定比區塊鏈更有用，但我們正在努力。我不——但我認為沒有——我們在這裡經常談論的一件事是準確的現貨市場價格和預測，對吧？你使用所有這些歷史資料，你可以得到他們的算法。

And for someone to tell you that they can tell you what spot pricing is for 6 months, you're using data that changes daily. And no, and I think I remember about 6 or 7 years ago, we had someone competing us saying they could give you spot market pricing in 6 months. I think kind of the same thing about AI, right? It's taken historical data and turning it into something they're trying to project in a very volatile spot market industry. And the other thing, like I said, it's going to be very useful in communications with chats and stuff like that, and communicating and getting quotes out quicker to the customers and getting information quicker to the customer. To me, that's what AI is all about and improved algorithms on optimizing your freight lanes and stuff.

如果有人告訴您他們可以告訴您 6 個月的現貨定價，那麼您使用的數據每天都會變化。不，我想我記得大約六七年前，有人與我們競爭，說他們可以在 6 個月內給你現貨市場定價。我認為人工智能也是如此，對嗎？它採用了歷史數據，並將其轉化為他們試圖在非常不穩定的現貨市場行業中預測的東西。另一件事，就像我說的，它對於聊天和類似的溝通，以及更快地向客戶溝通和獲取報價以及更快地向客戶獲取信息將非常有用。對我來說，這就是人工智能的全部內容，以及優化貨運通道和其他東西的改進算法。

We have our last person to ask the question coming from the line of Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

我們最後一個提出這個問題的人來自奧本海默的斯科特·施內伯格（Scott Schneeberger）。

I wanted to focus a little bit on the industrial end markets. It looks like machinery, building products, I'd say, doing a little bit better than consumer and other categories. Jim, could you speak to kind of the trends that you're seeing. I think in one of the first questions you mentioned you didn't want to call a bottom on volume or rate on than or on-site. I was just curious, honing in more on unsided is -- how has it trended this year? Do you see a lot of opportunity for the back half? Is that just conservatism or maybe some green shoots of more opportunity to come?

我想稍微關注工業終端市場。我想說，機械、建築產品看起來比消費品和其他類別的表現要好一些。吉姆，您能談談您所看到的趨勢嗎？我認為在您提到的第一個問題中，您不想在現場或現場宣布成交量或價格觸底。我只是很好奇，更多地關注單方面的問題——今年的趨勢如何？你認為後半場有很多機會嗎？這只是保守主義還是可能是更多機會的萌芽？

Yes, I mentioned the only green shoots I have, which was we saw BCO van revenue go up from May to June, and maybe carriers are looking for a little more money in certain regions, but that isn't really all over the place, it's very limited. But when I look at what's going on with machinery and building products from a growth perspective, from a volume perspective, they're down less because they weren't up as much as consumer durables, right? So I think you're looking at year-over-year comparisons to quarter-over comparisons more than seeing flatbed doing much better than van at this point, right?

是的，我提到了我唯一的萌芽，那就是我們看到BCO 貨車收入從5 月到6 月有所增長，也許運營商正在某些地區尋求更多的資金，但這並不是所有地方都如此，這是非常有限的。但當我從增長的角度、數量的角度來看機械和建築產品的情況時，它們的下降幅度較小，因為它們的增長幅度不如耐用消費品，對嗎？因此，我認為您現在更多地關注同比與季度比較，而不是看到平板車的表現比貨車好得多，對嗎？

I think the anticipation was that flatbed was going to turn the corner with manufacturing, and we're going to see improvement on the flatbed and van was going to slow down a little bit and flatbed would recover. I don't think we're seeing what we anticipated probably 6 months ago. And I don't see any -- as people would call green shoots yet that would indicate we're going to see any change in that.

我認為，我們的預期是平板車的製造將迎來轉機，我們將看到平板車的改進，貨車的速度會稍微慢一點，平板車將會恢復。我認為我們沒有看到 6 個月前的預期。我沒有看到任何——正如人們所說的“萌芽”，但這表明我們將看到這方面的任何變化。

Again, like I said, building products from -- building products and machinery from a standpoint of year-over-year comparisons are doing better, but I think that's because they weren't the drivers of the growth or in the pandemic, there was a lot of consumer durables-type things. So I would say that's what we're looking at. And I'll just stick with the -- we hope we're at a trough or a bottom, but I'm not the guy to call that yet.

再次，就像我說的，從同比比較的角度來看，建築產品和機械做得更好，但我認為這是因為它們不是增長的驅動力，也不是在大流行中，很多耐用消費品類型的東西。所以我想說這就是我們正在考慮的。我會堅持——我們希望我們正處於低谷或底部，但我還不是那個這樣稱呼的人。

Appreciate that color. And then kind of following up on Bruce's question, he was asking more kind of about AI competitive threats in the industry. Curious want to ask about what you're doing with your tech spend this year? It seems like you were you're shifting the pattern given the market environment given shifts in your spend a little bit this year. Just an update there and any comments you may have on digital tools and how that progress is going in your system?

欣賞那個顏色。然後，在跟進 Bruce 的問題時，他更多地詢問了行業中人工智能的競爭威脅。想問一下您今年的技術支出做了什麼？考慮到市場環境以及今年您的支出發生了一些變化，您似乎正在改變模式。只是更新一下，您對數字工具有什麼意見嗎？您的系統進展如何？

Yes. We're -- when I took over back in (inaudible) took over -- when I got the role of CEO and President in 2015, I put on a big push to improve technology in the organization and create the digital tools as opposed to being on our IBM mainframe, which is green screens a little clunky. And we've (inaudible) a lot over the last 6 years, but we still will be tweaking everything. But the spend from '14 to '15, '15 to '16, '16 to '17 really climbed as we made investments. I would say right now, our spend is pretty consistent year-over-year, which includes probably $25 million to $30 million, which is really building out more AI tools and digital as compared to 6 years ago. So the investments are still being made, and we're still working on whether it's AI or digital technologies.

是的。我們——當我重新接手（聽不清）時——當我在 2015 年擔任首席執行官和總裁時，我大力推動改進組織中的技術並創建數字工具，而不是在我們的IBM 大型機上，綠屏有點笨拙。在過去的 6 年裡，我們（聽不清）做了很多工作，但我們仍然會調整一切。但隨著我們進行投資，從 14 年到 15 年、15 年到 16 年、16 年到 17 年的支出確實有所上升。我想說，現在我們的支出同比相當穩定，其中可能包括 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元，與 6 年前相比，這確實是在構建更多的人工智能工具和數字工具。因此，投資仍在進行中，我們仍在研究人工智能或數字技術。

It's just now we're more consistent on how we do it. You only have so many subject matter experts within the building and the IT resources, and you can't do 1,000 things at once with two people. That's kind of logic. So we try and we're picking our spots where we think is beneficial, one being AI. But you talk about digital tools. We've got digital tools, they weren't really called digital back then. But since '99, we had -- today, it's called Landstar 1, but it's the phone app, right? It's all 100% digital. The BCOs or the carriers can do anything they want on a phone. They can see their loads. They can look at pricing. They can identify where fuel stops are. So we're digital, and we tend to stay on top of the next best thing and trying to be innovative there.

只是現在我們的做法更加一致了。大樓內只有這麼多主題專家和 IT 資源，而且兩個人無法同時完成 1,000 件事情。這是一種邏輯。因此，我們嘗試並選擇我們認為有益的領域，其中之一就是人工智能。但你談論的是數字工具。我們有數字工具，但當時它們還沒有真正被稱為數字工具。但自 99 年以來，我們今天稱之為 Landstar 1，但它是手機應用程序，對吧？這一切都是 100% 數字化的。 BCO 或運營商可以在手機上做任何他們想做的事情。他們可以看到他們的負載。他們可以查看定價。他們可以識別加油站的位置。所以我們是數字化的，我們傾向於保持下一個最好的事物的領先地位，並努力在那裡創新。

And like I said, we do have a team within the building that's been watching AI and coming up with -- and using actually some outside help to identify areas where we can improve as it relates to efficiencies built with AI. But I'd say that we're -- we're right up with everybody else or ahead of everybody. The one differentiator for us is the BCO side. Our digital tools are different than people who are just doing broker freight because they're very specific to the BCOs. So we've got experience providing digital tools to basically dedicated capacity to us since the mid-'90s. So we're kind of very good at knowing what the trucks want from us, and we kind of correlate that and push it out to the third-party carriers.

正如我所說，我們大樓內確實有一個團隊一直在關注人工智能並提出建議，並實際上利用一些外部幫助來確定我們可以改進的領域，因為它與人工智能構建的效率相關。但我想說的是，我們與其他人並駕齊驅，或者領先於所有人。對我們來說，唯一的區別在於 BCO 方面。我們的數字工具與只從事經紀貨運的人不同，因為它們非常針對 BCO。因此，自 20 世紀 90 年代中期以來，我們已經積累了為我們的專用能力提供數字工具的經驗。因此，我們非常擅長了解卡車想要從我們這裡得到什麼，並且我們將其關聯起來並將其推送給第三方承運商。

At this time, I show no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to you sir, for closing remarks.

此時，我沒有再提出任何問題。先生，我想將電話轉回給您，請您發表結束語。

Thank you. We knew we headed into this year that 2023 would be likely to be a very tough year coming off our record performance at '21 and '22. Nevertheless, After the U.S. recession, I expect the normal cyclical patterns common to the spot market freight industry to continue. As I said earlier, although it's difficult to say precisely when the current down cycle will turn into the next up cycle. History suggests we could see an inflection point in late '23 or early '24. And when that time comes, Landstar's network of agents, third-party capacity employees will be ready. Thank you, and I look forward to speaking with you again on our 2023 third quarter earnings conference call currently scheduled for October 26. Have a good day.

謝謝。我們知道今年即將到來，2023 年可能會是非常艱難的一年，因為我們在 21 年和 22 年創下了創紀錄的表現。儘管如此，在美國經濟衰退之後，我預計現貨市場貨運行業常見的正常週期性模式將繼續下去。正如我之前所說，雖然很難準確地說當前的下行週期何時會轉變為下一個上行週期。歷史表明，我們可能會在 23 世紀末或 24 年初看到一個拐點。到那時，Landstar的代理商網絡、第三方能力員工將準備就緒。謝謝，我期待在目前定於 10 月 26 日舉行的 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議上再次與您交談。祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you for joining the conference call today. Have a good morning. Please disconnect your lines at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。祝你早上好。此時請斷開您的線路。