Landsea Homes Corp (LSEA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Landsea Homes third-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加朗詩家居 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Drew Mackintosh, please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給德魯·麥金托什先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Landsea Homes third-quarter of 2023 earnings call. Before the call begins, I would like to note that this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

早安，歡迎參加朗詩家居 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在電話會議開始之前，我想指出，本次電話會議將包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。

Landsea Homes cautions that forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the factors -- the risk factors described by Landsea Homes in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date. And you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and deciding whether to invest in our securities.

朗詩家居警告說，前瞻性陳述受到許多假設、風險和不確定性的影響，這些假設、風險和不確定性會隨著時間的推移而改變。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於朗詩家園在向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所描述的風險因素。因此，前瞻性陳述不應被視為代表我們在任何後續日期的觀點。您不應過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述並決定是否投資我們的證券。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date they were made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities law. Additionally, reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be accessed through Landsea Homes website and then at SEC filings.

我們不承擔任何義務更新前瞻性聲明以反映做出後的事件或情況，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，除非適用的證券法可能要求。此外，本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則財務指標與最具可比性的公認會計原則指標的對賬可透過朗詩家園網站以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件獲取。

Hosting the call today are John Ho, Landsea's Chief Executive Officer; Mike Forsum, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Chris Porter, Chief Financial Officer. For that I'd like to turn the call over to John.

今天主持電話會議的是朗詩執行長 John Ho； Mike Forsum，總裁兼營運長；和首席財務長克里斯·波特。為此，我想將電話轉給約翰。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today as we go over our results for the third-quarter 2023. Share our outlook for the remainder of the year and discuss some exciting new developments for our company.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧 2023 年第三季的業績。分享我們對今年剩餘時間的展望，並討論我們公司的一些令人興奮的新發展。

Landsea Homes generated $258 million in home sales revenue in the third quarter. Our new home deliveries of 448 had an average sales price of $576,000. Home sales gross margin came in at 18.7%. And net income was $8.6 million, or $0.22 per diluted share. We are pleased with these financial results and believe they are reflective of a resilient new home market at our company's strong execution.

朗詩家居第三季房屋銷售收入為2.58億美元。我們交付的 448 套新房的平均售價為 576,000 美元。房屋銷售毛利率為 18.7%。淨利潤為 860 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.22 美元。我們對這些財務表現感到滿意，並相信它們反映了我們公司強有力的執行力下新房市場的彈性。

Net new orders for the quarter came in at 486, net sales paced, up 2.7 homes per community per month. We saw active and engaged buyers at our communities throughout the quarter, though the upward movement in interest rates resulted in some selling softness as the quarter progressed. Fortunately, we had several sales tools at our disposal that offset impacts of higher rates and gave consumers a sense of confidence in buying their homes. In addition, our unique high-performance homes continue to set us apart from the competition and drive traffic to our community.

本季淨新訂單量為 486 份，淨銷售量成長，每個社區每月增加 2.7 套房屋。整個季度我們在社區中看到了活躍且積極參與的買家，儘管隨著季度的進展，利率的上升導致了一些銷售疲軟。幸運的是，我們擁有多種銷售工具可以抵消較高利率的影響，並讓消費者對購買房屋充滿信心。此外，我們獨特的高性能住宅繼續使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，並為我們的社區帶來流量。

From a macro's perspective, we believe the long-term fundamental outlook for new home construction remains positive. There continues to be a lack of existing home inventory at all price points, while the demand for housing remains strong. Economy continues to add jobs and the US consumer has shown a willingness and ability to move forward with life-changing purchase decisions like buying a home, despite the high interest rate environment. We have also seen broad-based home price stability in our markets, thanks in large part to the scarcity of existing home inventory. All these factors have and will continue to benefit homebuilders, particularly those with strong balance sheets and access to capital.

從宏觀角度來看，我們認為新房屋建設的長期基本面前景依然樂觀。所有價位的現有房屋庫存仍然不足，而住房需求仍然強勁。儘管利率環境較高，但經濟仍持續增加就業機會，美國消費者也展現了做出改變生活的購買決定（例如購買房屋）的意願和能力。我們也看到市場上房價普遍穩定，這在很大程度上要歸功於現有房屋庫存的稀缺性。所有這些因素已經並將繼續使房屋建築商受益，特別是那些擁有強大資產負債表和獲得資本的房屋建築商。

Against this strong fundamental backdrop, Landsea has continued on its path of growing the size and scale of our operations. After the close of the quarter, we announced the acquisition of the assets and lot pipeline from Colorado based Richfield Homes. With this acquisition, Landsea enters its seventh homebuilding market with an established presence, one of the best housing markets in the country. Similar to our previous acquisitions, we plan on growing our local market presence quickly so that we achieve better local economies of scale. We have retained Richfield seasoned leadership team, including industry veteran and New Division President, Lisa Wiebelhaus, to lead these efforts and build on the success they've already achieved in the market.

在這強勁的基本面背景下，朗詩持續擴大業務規模和規模。本季結束後，我們宣布從科羅拉多州的 Richfield Homes 收購資產和地塊。透過此次收購，朗詩進入了其第七個住宅建築市場，該市場是全國最好的房屋市場之一。與我們先前的收購類似，我們計劃快速擴大本地市場份額，以便實現更好的本地規模經濟。我們保留了 Richfield 經驗豐富的領導團隊，包括業界資深人士和新部門總裁 Lisa Wiebelhaus，來領導這些工作，並在他們已經在市場上取得的成功的基礎上再接再厲。

We expect the deal to yield a more than 20 plus percent IRR for our company and immediately be accretive to earnings and return on capital within 30 months of closing. Operationally, we expect to follow the same playbook in Colorado that we have been executing in our other markets, which is a focus on the more affordable segments of the market with a differentiated high-performance home series for a [land-light] strategy to turn our inventory quickly. We believe this is the right recipe for success in today's market, and we'll continue to look for acquisition targets that fit this model.

我們預計該交易將為我們公司帶來超過 20% 以上的 IRR，並在交易完成後 30 個月內立即增加收益和資本回報率。在營運上，我們希望在科羅拉多州遵循我們在其他市場執行的相同策略，即專注於市場中更實惠的細分市場，推出差異化的高性能家居系列，以實現[土地輕型]戰略快速週轉我們的庫存。我們相信這是在當今市場取得成功的正確秘訣，我們將繼續尋找適合這種模式的收購目標。

The continued rise in interest rates. We believe the opportunities to grow via acquisitions will become more common. From capital allocation standpoint, we feel that it is important to balance out our investments in the business and shareholder friendly actions that signal our confidence in our company and our stock. To that end, our Board has approved a $20 million share repurchase authorization, which we plan to deploy over the next 12 months. We believe our stock is undervalued at its current share price and look forward to buying our shares at a discount to book value, boosting our earnings per share throughout this repurchase program.

利率持續上升。我們相信透過收購實現成長的機會將變得更加普遍。從資本配置的角度來看，我們認為平衡我們對業務的投資和股東友善的行動非常重要，這表明我們對公司和股票的信心。為此，我們的董事會已批准一項價值 2000 萬美元的股票回購授權，我們計劃在未來 12 個月內進行部署。我們認為，以目前的股價計算，我們的股票被低估，並期待以低於帳面價值的價格購買我們的股票，從而在整個回購計劃中提高我們的每股盈餘。

Landsea is in a great position to finish the year on a strong note and carry that momentum into 2024. We have an established and growing presence in some of the best markets in the country. A product profile that caters to the largest buyer segment. Our balance sheet is in great shape. And our senior leadership team has the necessary experience and industry knowledge to compete effectively in a high interest rate environment. Given these positives, we remain excited about the future of Landsea Homes.

朗詩處於有利位置，能夠以強勁的表現結束這一年，並將這一勢頭延續到 2024 年。我們在國內一些最好的市場已建立並不斷發展業務。迎合最大買家群體的產品簡介。我們的資產負債表狀況良好。我們的高階領導團隊擁有必要的經驗和行業知識，可以在高利率環境下有效競爭。鑑於這些積極因素，我們對朗詩家園的未來仍然感到興奮。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mike, who will provide some additional color and our operational performance this quarter.

現在我想將電話轉給麥克，他將提供一些額外的資訊以及我們本季的營運業績。

Thanks, John. Net new orders were up 89% year-over-year in the third quarter, thanks to an 80% improvement in absorption pace and a 4% rise in average community count. Order activity was strongest in our Southern California and Arizona divisions, while our Northern California division continued to lag due to affordability issues and soft employment trends in the tech sector. Our ability to offer financing incentives was a key driver of demand during the quarter, as it allowed us to meet the affordability needs of our buyers. Both home shoppers are trying to solve for a monthly payment and being able to adjust the rate associated with that payment is a big competitive advantage for homebuilders versus the existing home market. It allows us to maintain base price stability in our communities as well.

謝謝，約翰。第三季淨新訂單年增 89%，這得益於吸收速度提高 80% 以及平均社區數量增加 4%。我們的南加州和亞利桑那州部門的訂單活動最為強勁，而由於負擔能力問題和科技業就業趨勢疲軟，我們的北加州部門繼續落後。我們提供融資激勵的能力是本季需求的關鍵驅動因素，因為它使我們能夠滿足買家的負擔能力需求。兩位購屋者都在努力解決每月付款的問題，並且能夠調整與付款相關的費率，對於住宅建築商而言，相對於現有住宅市場來說是一個巨大的競爭優勢。它也使我們能夠維持社區的基本價格穩定。

As John mentioned, traffic was solid throughout the quarter, but tapered off a bit from normal seasonality and adjusting rates moving higher near the end of the quarter. It is important to note that the quality of traffic we saw stayed consistent, as the majority of buyers who came through our communities was motivated and resulted in solid lead conversion rates. Currently, we are seeing an increase in incentive activity from some of our bigger players in the market, which is to be expected at this time of the year.

正如約翰所提到的，整個季度的流量都很穩定，但與正常的季節性相比略有減少，並且在接近季度末時調整費率走高。值得注意的是，我們看到的流量品質保持一致，因為透過我們社區的大多數買家都很有動力，並帶來了穩定的潛在客戶轉換率。目前，我們看到市場上一些較大參與者的激勵活動增加，這是每年這個時候的預期。

While we remain committed to meeting the market with our pricing to sustain appropriate absorption levels, we continue to monitor each of our communities individually in order not to generally overreact to short-term market shifts created by competitive year-end clearance practices. As a result, we are being strategic by being community and lots specific with our incentive activity rather than taking a broad-brush one size fits all strategy. Fortunately, we have a clear path to hitting our delivery goals for the remainder of the year, thanks to a solid quarter ending backlog and our targeted sales approach.

雖然我們仍然致力於透過定價來滿足市場需求，以維持適當的吸收水平，但我們將繼續單獨監控每個社區，以免對競爭性年終清倉做法造成的短期市場變化反應過度。因此，我們透過社區化和具體的激勵活動來制定策略，而不是採取一刀切的策略。幸運的是，由於穩定的季度末積壓和我們有針對性的銷售方法，我們有明確的途徑來實現今年剩餘時間的交付目標。

We saw further improvement in building conditions in the third quarter, leading to significant reduction in cycle time on a sequential and year-over-year basis. Cycle times are now approaching pre-pandemic levels, which will be a tailwind for our return profile going forward. It also allows us a return to a more balanced business model when it comes to spec homes versus to-be-built. Buyers who visit our communities can choose from either a quick move-in home or a to-be-built, which allows for more customization and typically better margins for our company.

我們看到第三季建築條件進一步改善，導致週期時間環比和年比顯著縮短。週期時間現已接近疫情前的水平，這將成為我們未來回報概況的有利因素。它還使我們能夠在規格住宅與待建住宅方面回歸更平衡的商業模式。參觀我們社區的買家可以選擇快速入住的房屋或待建房屋，這可以實現更多定制，通常可以為我們公司帶來更好的利潤。

Overall, we feel really good about our business as we head into the end of the year, despite the high mortgage rate environment. We continue to see motivated buyers in our market, while existing home supply remains at all-time low. Housing fundamentals have remained positive in our existing markets. And we are excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for our new division in Colorado. Cost inflation appears to be waning and labor and material availability are the best we have seen in years. As a result, we believe the outlook for our company remains bright.

總體而言，儘管抵押貸款利率較高，但隨著年底的到來，我們對我們的業務感覺非常好。我們繼續在市場上看到積極的買家，而現有房屋供應仍處於歷史低點。我們現有市場的房屋基本面仍然樂觀。我們對科羅拉多州新部門所面臨的機會感到興奮。成本通膨似乎正在減弱，勞動力和材料的供應量達到了多年來最好的水平。因此，我們相信我們公司的前景仍然光明。

With that, I would like to turn over the call to Chris, who will provide more detail on our financial results this quarter and give an update on guidance for the remainder of the year.

因此，我想將電話轉給克里斯，他將提供有關本季度財務業績的更多詳細信息，並提供今年剩餘時間的指導的最新信息。

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As Mike and John mentioned, we had a strong quarter and we're pleased with the way the entire organization executed. For the third quarter, we generated $258 million in homebuilding revenue, a 21% decrease over third quarter of 2022, taking us to a total of $790 million for the first nine months of the year. We also delivered $19 million in lot sales and other revenue for a total revenue of $277 million. This quarter, our team delivered 448 homes with an average sales price of $576,000.

謝謝你，麥克，大家早安。正如麥克和約翰所提到的，我們有一個強勁的季度，我們對整個組織的執行方式感到滿意。第三季度，我們的住宅建築收入為 2.58 億美元，比 2022 年第三季下降 21%，今年前 9 個月的總收入為 7.9 億美元。我們還實現了 1900 萬美元的批次銷售和其他收入，總收入達到 2.77 億美元。本季度，我們的團隊交付了 448 套房屋，平均售價為 576,000 美元。

Our ASPs were up 6.5% sequentially from the second quarter, but down 4% from the third quarter of last year. Excluding New York and Texas which had deliveries last year, our ASPs were up 3.8% from the third quarter of last year. Our production was driven 26% from California, 26% from Arizona, and the balance from Florida. We will start seeing the contribution from Colorado in the fourth quarter, and although it will be small to start, it will grow in 2024.

我們的平均售價較第二季較上季成長 6.5%，但較去年第三季下降 4%。排除去年交付的紐約和德州，我們的平均售價比去年第三季成長了 3.8%。我們的生產 26% 來自加州，26% 來自亞利桑那州，其餘來自佛羅裡達州。我們將在第四季開始看到科羅拉多州的貢獻，雖然一開始規模很小，但到 2024 年將會成長。

Home sales gross margin was 18.7% for the quarter and 24% on a fully adjusted basis, which excludes interest and cost of homes as well as purchase price accounting. We booked $3.9 million in purchase price accounting for the quarter and have approximately $34 million remaining that we anticipate burning off over the next 18 months. Pretax income for the quarter was $12.5 million compared to $25.3 million last year. On a dollar basis, our G&A declined slightly from the second quarter as we continue to focus on improving our efficiency. SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue was 16.4% this quarter, reflecting relatively constant fixed costs, coupled with lower overall revenues compared to last year.

本季房屋銷售毛利率為 18.7%，全面調整後為 24%，其中不包括利息和房屋成本以及購買價格核算。我們在本季預訂了 390 萬美元的購買價格，預計剩餘約 3,400 萬美元將在未來 18 個月內消耗掉。本季稅前收入為 1,250 萬美元，而去年為 2,530 萬美元。以美元計算，我們的一般管理費用較第二季略有下降，因為我們繼續專注於提高效率。本季 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 16.4%，反映出相對穩定的固定成本，以及與去年相比較低的整體收入。

As John mentioned, we are very pleased with our new order volume and the consistency produced in the quarter. Net new orders were 486 with an average selling price of $587,000 and a total order value of $285 million. Orders were up 89% from a year ago, and our absorption rate was 2.7 homes per community versus 1.5 in the third quarter of last year. We also ended the quarter with an average of 59 selling communities, up 4% from a year earlier. Throughout this year, we remained disciplined on our land acquisition as we assess the current market conditions and ended the quarter with just over 11,200 lots owned or controlled. 55% of these lots are under option agreement as we continue to focus on our asset-light strategy. Our tax expense in the third quarter was $3 million, which represents an effective tax rate of 24%.

正如約翰所提到的，我們對本季的新訂單量和一致性感到非常滿意。淨新訂單量為 486 份，平均售價為 587,000 美元，訂單總價值為 2.85 億美元。訂單量比一年前增加了 89%，每個社區的吸收率為 2.7 套，而去年第三季為 1.5 套。本季結束時，我們平均有 59 個銷售社區，比去年同期成長 4%。今年全年，我們在評估當前市場狀況的同時，仍然嚴格控制土地收購，截至本季末，我們擁有或控制的土地略多於 11,200 塊。隨著我們繼續專注於輕資產策略，其中 55% 的地塊簽訂了選擇權協議。第三季我們的稅費為 300 萬美元，有效稅率為 24%。

Now turning to our balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $389 million in liquidity, $144 million of which was cash and cash equivalents and $245 million was available under our revolving credit facility. During the quarter, we repurchased 1.4 million shares for $13.1 million. (sic - see company's filed third quarter 2023 Form 10-Q, "$13.7 billion") And our tangible book value per share ended at $15.46, an increase of 3% sequentially from second quarter and up 12.8% from a year ago. Additionally, our leverage ratio has remained in line with our stated policies, ending the quarter at 44% debt to total capital and 33% net debt to total cap.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。截至第三季末，我們的流動資金為 3.89 億美元，其中 1.44 億美元是現金和現金等價物，我們的循環信貸額度下有 2.45 億美元可用。本季度，我們以 1,310 萬美元回購了 140 萬股股票。 （原文如此- 請參閱公司提交的2023 年第三季度10-Q 表格，“137 億美元”）我們每股有形賬面價值為15.46 美元，比第二季度環比增長3%，比去年同期增長12.8% 。此外，我們的槓桿率仍符合我們既定的政策，本季末債務佔總資本的比例為 44%，淨負債佔總資本的比例為 33%。

For the full year we still anticipate new home deliveries to be in the range of 1900 to 2100 units. And delivery ASPs to be in the range of $550,000 to $560,000. Additionally, we anticipate GAAP home sales gross margin for the full year to be in the 18% range. This guidance is based on our best estimate as of today, with current market conditions and as inflation incentives and interest rates continue to change. Overall, results could change [quarterly].

我們仍然預計全年新屋交付量將在 1900 至 2100 套之間。交付平均售價將在 55 萬美元至 56 萬美元之間。此外，我們預計全年 GAAP 房屋銷售毛利率將在 18% 左右。該指導意見是基於我們截至目前的最佳估計，考慮到當前的市場狀況以及通膨激勵措施和利率的持續變化。總體而言，結果可能會[每季]發生變化。

With that, we conclude our prepared remarks. And now we'd like to open the call up for questions.

至此，我們結束了準備好的發言。現在我們想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

（操作員說明）Carl Reichardt，BTIG。

Thanks. Morning, everybody. Thank you for all the information (multiple speakers). Okay, so I wanted to ask first just about the acquisition in Colorado market. There has been tough if you listen to other builders. So one could argue that this is a great time to get in and the other hand, it could be tough for a while.

謝謝。大家早安。感謝您提供的所有資訊（多位發言者）。好的，我想先問問科羅拉多市場的收購事宜。如果你聽聽其他建築商的意見，情況會很艱難。因此，有人可能會說，現在是進入的好時機，但另一方面，這可能很難一段時間。

So can you talk about that decision from a strategic perspective. And also maybe discuss some of the other markets you're thinking about or looking at from a forward acquisition standpoint?

您能否從策略角度談談這個決定？也許還可以討論您正在考慮或從遠期收購的角度考慮的其他一些市場？

Hey, Carl, this is John, I'll talk about that strategically and then I'll have Mike, also follow-up. I think for us as we've talked about it in the past, we thought that the tightening credit conditions and certainly this high interest of our environments are probably pinching a lot of these smaller private builders that have less access, less resources, and access to capital.

嘿，卡爾，這是約翰，我將從戰略上討論這個問題，然後我將請麥克跟進。我認為對我們來說，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，我們認為信貸條件的收緊以及我們環境的高利率可能會擠壓許多規模較小的私人建築商，他們的訪問權限、資源和訪問權限都較少。到資本。

So it is opportunistic for us, as we came across this opportunity and was able to acquire the assets primarily. And then inherit the team that we thought was really well qualified, well really want welcome to the team. So the opportunist acquisition for us and it's market that we think is a long-term runway for us, supported by all the reasons why we think Denver is a great market. The demographics and (inaudible).

所以這對我們來說是機會主義的，因為我們遇到了這個機會並且能夠主要收購資產。然後繼承我們認為非常合格、非常歡迎加入的團隊。因此，對我們來說，機會主義的收購和我們認為的市場對我們來說是一個長期的跑道，並得到我們認為丹佛是一個偉大市場的所有原因的支持。人口統計和（聽不清楚）。

Hey, Carl, it's Mike. Just to follow up on John, I've been in the Colorado market in one fashion or another since the 1990s. And I have always really liked that market for various reasons. But I would say primarily that it does have a higher barrier to entry, which requires a little bit stronger skill set around land entitlement, land development, which I've honed my homebuilding career around those through California.

嘿，卡爾，我是麥克。為了跟進約翰的情況，自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，我一直以這種或那種方式進入科羅拉多市場。由於各種原因，我一直非常喜歡這個市場。但我主要想說的是，它確實有更高的進入門檻，這需要在土地權利、土地開發方面有更強的技能，我在加州的這些方面磨練了我的住宅建築職業生涯。

And I believe it does give us a strong leverage point. We do the move that market very well, either through my homebuilding experiences or through a private equity, that Starwood where we own land and then through land banking, we've got a great familiarity with it. We know the markets to be in. We know the markets not to be in. And then we thought that this was an incredibly low-cost entry into that market, it was opportunistic.

我相信它確實為我們提供了強大的槓桿點。我們在這個市場上做得很好，無論是透過我的住宅建設經驗，還是透過私募股權，我們擁有土地的喜達屋，然後透過土地儲備，我們對此非常熟悉。我們知道哪些市場適合。我們知道哪些市場不適合。然後我們認為這是進入該市場的成本極低，這是機會主義的。

And then to your question, we're looking everywhere all the time. I think over the course of our 10 years in existence and then growing through acquisitions, we've become a builder of choice for that smaller private that's looking to exit. We have a whole cadre of folks out there looking on our behalf, as well as others that have inbound that come in directly.

關於你的問題，我們一直到處尋找。我認為，在我們成立 10 年的過程中，以及透過收購不斷成長的過程中，我們已經成為尋求退出的小型私人企業的首選建築商。我們有一大群人代表我們，還有其他直接進來的人。

And that we got excited about this. We got excited about the platform. We got excited about their early positions. And we think that we can make a real mark there. But that doesn't mean we're not consistently looking in those markets. And we've talked about before in Texas, Florida. In fact, we're having really great conversations currently with folks. And we hope that we can continue to go down this path of growing our business through bolt-on M&A to continue to get the growth that we want.

我們對此感到興奮。我們對這個平台感到興奮。我們對他們早期的職位感到興奮。我們認為我們可以在那裡留下真正的印記。但這並不意味著我們沒有持續關注這些市場。我們之前已經討論過德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州的情況。事實上，我們目前正在與人們進行非常愉快的對話。我們希望我們能夠繼續走這條透過補強併購來發展業務的道路，繼續獲得我們想要的成長。

I appreciate the details on this, thank you. And then for your guidance for '23 on deliveries, Chris, it's still a fairly wide range. Can you talk about the conditions that would cause you to hit the lower end versus the higher end of that range. What are the toggle points that would help you get to that top end or conversely to the bottom end over the course of the next -- what we have here like eight weeks? Thanks.

我很欣賞這方面的細節，謝謝。然後，克里斯，對於 23 年交付的指導，這仍然是一個相當廣泛的範圍。您能否談談導致您達到該範圍的下限和上限的條件。哪些切換點可以幫助你在接下來的過程中達到最高點或相反地達到最低點——我們這裡有八週的時間？謝謝。

Yeah Carl, sure. Good question. I think a lot of the uncertainty right now is revolving around incentives and mortgage buydowns, and just the volatility of costs related to that. And I think that some stability in the market, there's a lot of bets that the Fed's going to hold rates steady. The 10 years rallying today, even. And so I think some steadiness within that aspect is going to give us more confidence on the upper end of there. We kept the range a little bit wider just based on mix as well as where incentives may or may not be for the year.

是的，卡爾，當然。好問題。我認為現在很多不確定性都圍繞著激勵措施和抵押貸款購買，以及與之相關的成本波動。我認為市場穩定後，很多人押注聯準會將維持利率穩定。十年來今天甚至出現反彈。因此，我認為這方面的穩定性將使我們對上限更有信心。我們僅根據組合以及今年可能或可能不提供激勵措施的情況，將範圍擴大一點。

Alright, thank you Chris, I'll get back in queue. Thanks guys.

好的，謝謝克里斯，我會重新排隊。多謝你們。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

Hey, good morning, everyone, thanks for taking my questions. Just trying to think a little bit ahead to '24. You've got the Colorado acquisition, Austin's going to be coming online. Maybe could you talk in rough numbers what we should think about for community count growth looking into next year, just with all the different things that you have going on.

嘿，大家早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。只是想提前考慮一下 24 年。你已經收購了科羅拉多州，奧斯汀將上線。也許您可以粗略地談談我們應該考慮明年社區數量增長的問題，以及您正在進行的所有不同的事情。

Hey Jay, this is John, I'll start with that and then maybe hand it over to Chris to talk about community count. Yeah, we are excited about the new opening of our communities in Austin. And then with the acquisition of Colorado Richfield Homes, they have three actively selling communities right now, which we'll start seeing some of those deliveries in this fourth quarter.

嘿，傑伊，我是約翰，我將從這個開始，然後可能會將其交給克里斯來討論社區計數。是的，我們對奧斯汀社區的新開幕感到興奮。然後，隨著收購科羅拉多州 Richfield Homes，他們現在擁有三個正在積極銷售的社區，我們將在第四季度開始看到其中一些交付。

As it relates to 2024? I think we probably share the same, I would say, thoughts about the market. A lot of uncertainty as it relates to interest rates, the amount incentives we have to offer around there. So we haven't given any guidance on 2024. As it relates to community growth, I mean, I think that remains unchanged.

與2024年有關嗎？我認為我們對市場的看法可能是相同的。與利率有關的許多不確定性，以及我們必須提供的激勵金額。所以我們沒有對 2024 年給予任何指導。因為它與社區發展有關，我的意思是，我認為這保持不變。

Yeah, I would agree. Jay, the Colorado acquisition, there's three communities there today. You can see them out on our website. We will expand those communities. And then Austin, we've said that we think that we'll start with three communities and then continue to grow it. So I would see that growth in community count to be relatively consistent with where we thought in 2023, up 10% to 15% range.

是的，我同意。傑伊，科羅拉多州收購的地方，現在有三個社區。您可以在我們的網站上看到它們。我們將擴大這些社區。然後是奧斯汀，我們說過我們認為我們將從三個社區開始，然後繼續發展它。因此，我認為社區數量的成長與我們對 2023 年的預期相對一致，成長 10% 到 15%。

Okay that's great, thank you. And then Mike, I wanted to dive in a little bit to your comment that labor availability, materials availability is the best you've ever seen. That's pretty encouraging, given where the industry was two years ago.

好的，太好了，謝謝。然後麥克，我想深入探討您的評論，即勞動力可用性、材料可用性是您所見過的最好的。考慮到該行業兩年前的狀況，這是相當令人鼓舞的。

I guess what -- you already talked about how declining cycle time gives you better cash flow. But maybe from a product perspective, maybe talk about what other options this gives you. And if things are this good, does this give you more incentive to go out and find more builders. I just think there's a lot we could draw from that comment. So maybe if you could dig down on that a little bit, please?

我猜怎麼著——您已經談到縮短週期時間如何為您帶來更好的現金流。但也許從產品的角度來看，也許可以談談這給你帶來了哪些其他選擇。如果事情這麼好，這是否會讓你更有動力出去尋找更多的建築商。我只是認為我們可以從該評論中汲取很多東西。那麼也許您可以深入研究這一點，好嗎？

Okay, I would say as a point of clarification that I believe that labor and materials are the best probably since -- that go back pre-pandemic levels. We're getting back to normalization of our business and the execution and flow. So that's super encouraging as well. Costs seem to be raining themselves in.

好吧，我想說的是，作為澄清，我相信勞動力和材料可能是有史以來最好的——回到了大流行前的水平。我們正在恢復業務、執行和流程的正常化。所以也是非常令人鼓舞的。成本似乎如雨般湧來。

So from that standpoint on that side, we're really happy with the trajectory of things. What it does though for us generally, and it's again, our strategy, our business model. Is it moves us a little bit more towards dirt starts. And dirt starts are always better, in the sense that allows us to create a relationship with our customer, allows them to customize their house a little bit more to the way that they want it, invest them more in the house, and the final outcome. We do collect more deposits because they have to put deposits down on options that they're taking.

因此，從這一方面來看，我們對事情的發展軌跡非常滿意。但它對我們整體來說是做什麼的，這又是我們的策略、我們的商業模式。它是否會讓我們更接近泥土起點？從某種意義上說，土開始總是更好，因為它允許我們與客戶建立關係，允許他們按照自己想要的方式更多地定制他們的房子，對房子進行更多投資，以及最終的結果。我們確實收取了更多存款，因為他們必須為他們所接受的選擇權存入存款。

So we believe that it's a deeper and more secured transaction by doing dirt starts. With dirt starts and with higher cycle times, your kind of closing the gap of where the industry was moving towards this spec level type of build to shrink the distance between sale and close. This is happening more organically by virtue of the fact that we can get our cycle times down. And so we're seeing that roughly right now, where we're seeing more buyers coming to the market, looking to do a dirt acquisition versus a spec quick move-in acquisition are close, I should say. So from our standpoint, we think that that's a good healthy thing that's happening and we like the normalization, and we think it's building a stronger business for us.

因此，我們相信，透過“骯髒的開始”，這是一種更深入、更安全的交易。隨著污垢的開始和更長的周期時間，您可以縮小行業向這種規格級別類型構建的差距，從而縮短銷售和關閉之間的距離。由於我們可以縮短週期時間，所以這種情況正在更有機地發生。因此，我應該說，我們現在大致看到，我們看到更多的買家進入市場，尋求進行污垢收購，而不是規格快速入住收購。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們認為這是一件好事，我們喜歡正常化，我們認為這正在為我們打造更強大的業務。

Great, thank you, Mike. And then Chris, if we could talk about, I think you said 18%, approximately 18% for the full year gross margin. I guess, is most of that mortgage rate buydowns in the cost of those, or is there something else we need to talk about as it relate to pricing power and you all's ability to push price right now?

太好了，謝謝你，麥克。然後克里斯，如果我們可以談談的話，我想你說的是 18%，全年毛利率大約是 18%。我想，大部分抵押貸款利率的下調都包含在這些成本中，還是我們還需要談論其他一些事情，因為它與定價能力以及你們現在推高價格的能力有關？

No, I think that that is primarily related to the mortgage incentives that I was mentioning earlier, and just incentives in general to continue to push that demand through. If you look at kind of our base business year over year, ASPs were up 4%, if you exclude New York and Texas, which didn't deliver in this quarter. And so I think that that shows some pricing within the portfolio. But I think margin-wise, a lot of it is just based around the incentive sourcing.

不，我認為這主要與我之前提到的抵押貸款激勵措施有關，以及繼續推動這項需求的整體激勵措施。如果你看看我們的基本業務年增了 4%，如果你排除本季沒有交付的紐約和德州的話。所以我認為這顯示了投資組合中的一些定價。但我認為從利潤角度來看，很多都是基於激勵採購。

Okay, got it. Yeah, that's it for me. I'll get back in queue. Thank you.

好，知道了。是的，對我來說就是這樣。我會回到隊列中。謝謝。

Alex Rygiel, B. Riley.

亞歷克斯·里吉爾，B.萊利。

Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Very nice quarter. Can you talk a bit about how you're helping your buyers find lower mortgages?

謝謝。早安，先生們。非常好的季度。您能談談您如何幫助買家找到較低的房貸嗎？

Yeah. Chris, do you want to?

是的。克里斯，你願意嗎？

Yeah, sure. Yeah, Alex. As you know, we've got a partnership with NFM mortgage to brand under Landsea mortgage. So we have the tag line Landsea Mortgage powered by NFM. And they have access to all of our buyers, and we work with them on just creating the mortgage programs.

好，當然。是的，亞歷克斯。如您所知，我們與朗詩抵押貸款下的 NFM 品牌抵押貸款建立了合作夥伴關係。因此，我們有了由 NFM 提供支持的朗詩抵押貸款的口號。他們可以接觸到我們所有的買家，我們與他們合作創建抵押貸款計劃。

And also doing mortgage incentives to there -- so we'll do either the buydowns. And primarily it's 30-year fixed, is what we're seeing out there. We still haven't seen a lot of movement on the variable rate or the 15-year, yeah. But primarily it's all around a 30 year that we're able to -- as everybody is, buy in bulk, and then use that as an incentive towards closing costs in towards the mortgage. And so that's primarily what we're doing is using our mortgage company.

並且還在那裡進行抵押貸款激勵——所以我們將進行購買。而且主要是 30 年固定，這就是我們所看到的。是的，我們仍然沒有看到可變利率或 15 年期利率有很大變化。但主要是在 30 年左右，我們能夠像每個人一樣批量購買，然後將其用作降低抵押貸款成本的激勵措施。因此，我們所做的主要是利用我們的抵押貸款公司。

And then can you talk a bit about -- if you're seeing any opportunities to raise base prices. And then give us a quick update on sort of the trends in October relative to September.

然後您能談談您是否看到任何提高基本價格的機會。然後給我們快速更新 10 月相對於 9 月的趨勢。

Sure. Alex, this is Mike, I'll jump on that one. We are actually in some cases raising prices, not aggressively, but I think that we're doing it thoughtfully, prudently where and when we can. So that one, we're locking in our backlog because they feel like they're at a community that's doing well. We're seeing that in places in Florida as well as Arizona and in Southern California. That seems to be our strongest markets right now. And we're able to do that.

當然。亞歷克斯，這是麥克，我會跳上那個。實際上，在某些情況下，我們會提高價格，但並不激進，但我認為我們會在可能的時間和地點深思熟慮、謹慎行事。因此，我們鎖定了積壓的工作，因為他們覺得自己身處在一個表現良好的社區。我們在佛羅裡達州、亞利桑那州和南加州的一些地方看到了這種情況。這似乎是我們目前最強勁的市場。我們能夠做到這一點。

In further note, I think we're really at a point right now Alex, is that it's really a business of monthly payment as opposed to absolute price. Until the toggling to keep absorption up are really around what Chris was talking about, the ability to buy down mortgage interest rates such that the monthly payment is more affordable against the backdrop of the credit or the homeowner's ability to qualify. There does not seem to be a real hesitation resistance out there. In terms of absolute pricing from our buyer profile that's coming through, which is making sure that they know that they're comfortable that they have a monthly payment that they can afford and be again, comfortable with.

進一步說明，我認為我們現在確實處於這樣一個階段，亞歷克斯，這實際上是一項按月付款的業務，而不是絕對價格的業務。直到保持吸收的切換真正圍繞著克里斯所說的，購買抵押貸款利率的能力，使得每月付款在信貸或房主資格能力的背景下更加負擔得起。那裡似乎沒有真正的猶豫阻力。就我們的買家資料中的絕對定價而言，這確保他們知道他們對自己有能力承擔的每月付款感到滿意，並且再次感到滿意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

Thanks again, guys. So as your mix is changing here and over time, do you might have sort of a normalized sort of absorption rate per month that you think the company should be targeting overall? And I ask that just because I know the mix moves around quite a bit. And at the entry level, you'd be trying to target, say one week for a month, higher end it's going to be more like three. So I'm just trying to get a sense of -- in your head roughly what you think a normalized absorption pace would be for the company as it's currently constituted.

再次感謝你們。因此，隨著您的組合在這裡以及隨著時間的推移而變化，您是否可能有某種您認為公司應該總體目標的每月標準化吸收率？我這麼問只是因為我知道混音的變化很大。在入門級，你會嘗試以一個月為一周為目標，高端則可能是三週。所以我只是想了解一下——在你的腦海中，你認為公司目前的正常化吸收速度是如何的。

Sure. I think that we aspire Carl, to be in that 3 to 3.5 net absorption rate per community. That is ideal. And I think that generally, over the course of my time in the business that seems to be the sort of organic natural absorption where you're not pricing too low or not pricing too high, and that's where you should be. Although there is seasonality that comes into play.

當然。我認為 Carl 希望每個社區的淨吸收率達到 3 到 3.5。那是理想的。我認為，總的來說，在我從事這個行業的過程中，這似乎是一種有機的自然吸收，你不會定價太低或不會定價太高，這就是你應該做的。儘管存在季節性因素。

So if you're going through the summer, you maybe dipping down into the 2's as your kind of moving through the summer lulls. And then you'll have some spiking that may take you even a -- sort of a naturally higher as you start to get kind of maybe a little bit of energy and some greater momentum into the market. But if you look at the course of a community from beginning to end. If you're hitting that 3 to 3.5 through it, on average, you've done a really great job, and you got a really healthy community that I think you optimized everything along the site.

所以，如果你正在經歷夏天，你可能會進入 2 歲，因為你正在經歷夏天的平靜。然後，當你開始獲得一點能量和更大的動力進入市場時，你會出現一些飆升，甚至可能會自然而然地走高。但如果你從頭到尾觀察一個社群的進程。如果你透過它達到 3 到 3.5，平均而言，你已經做得非常出色，並且你擁有一個非常健康的社區，我認為你優化了網站上的所有內容。

Okay, perfect. Thanks, Mike. And then you have a couple of smaller peers who had talked about developers who had deals sold to small builders to finish lot deals that had been dropped. And so these publics have had a chance to go and pick up finished lots. Not at great prices, but at least there's availability.

好的，完美。謝謝，麥克。然後，有幾個規模較小的同行談到了開發商將交易出售給小型建築商以完成已放棄的地塊交易。因此，這些大眾有機會去挑選成品。價格雖然不高，但至少有貨。

You've had some larger peers say that's not happening at all. Where do you guys see? And obviously with the acquisition in Colorado there's some positive elements. But where do you see overall this land market is? Are opportunities showing up more than they had because of private builder distress or higher cost of capital? Or is that really not happening as you see it? Thanks

一些較大的同行表示這種情況根本沒有發生。大家在哪裡看到的？顯然，在科羅拉多州的收購有一些積極的因素。但您認為這個土地市場整體狀況如何？由於私人建築商陷入困境或資本成本上升，機會出現得比原來多嗎？或者這實際上並沒有像你所看到的那樣發生？謝謝

Yeah. That's actually a really great question, Carl. Because what we're seeing is in some of our markets, Florida, and Arizona specifically, opportunity has come our way where we are talking to single-family for rent -- build for rent builders who can't get financing that have acquired properties. And we're backfilling into infill there with some smaller bite-size type of communities that are gappers in our business that are filling some holes between quarter to quarter or month to month.

是的。這實際上是一個很好的問題，卡爾。因為我們看到的是我們的一些市場，特別是佛羅裡達州和亞利桑那州，我們正在與單戶出租房屋進行談判，為無法獲得已購買房產的融資的出租建築商建造房屋，機會已經到來。 。我們正在用一些較小規模的社區來填充那裡，這些社區是我們業務中的缺口，正在填補季度與季度或月與月之間的一些空白。

We really like those because they're finished lots, they're ready to go, price points are right in our wheelhouse. And they're in locations that we probably won't be looking at, because of just efficiency sake. So we actually have talked and looking at and getting close to a handful of those in those locations. So that's really what we're seeing right now. I think the most stuff is really on that sort of private build to rent builder out there that is struggling to find financing to get them all the way through that project.

我們真的很喜歡這些，因為它們已經完成了很多，已經準備好了，價格點就在我們的駕駛室裡。而且出於效率考慮，它們位於我們可能不會關注的位置。因此，我們實際上已經與這些地點的一些人進行了交談、觀察和接近。這就是我們現在所看到的。我認為大部分的東西實際上是那種私人建造出租的建築商，他們正在努力尋找融資來讓他們一路完成這個項目。

That makes a lot of sense. Alright, I appreciate that, Mike. Thanks all.

這很有意義。好吧，我很感激，麥克。謝謝大家。

Sure.

當然。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Ho for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回約翰·何（John Ho）發表閉幕詞。請繼續。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. And we look forward to speaking to you after the fourth quarter again.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在第四季度之後再次與您交談。

This concludes today's meeting. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。