Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the third quarter 2026 Cheniere Energy earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 Cheniere Energy 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議將進行錄音。

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.

    此刻,我想把會議交給 Randy Bhatia 先生。請開始。

  • Randy Bhatia - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Randy Bhatia - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com.

    謝謝,接線員。各位早安,歡迎參加 Cheniere 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的投影片簡報與網路直播連結可於 cheniere.com 取得。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,我們的發言(包括對各位提問的回答)可能包含前瞻性陳述,而實際結果可能與這些陳述所描述者有重大差異。

  • Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the presentation appendix. The call agenda is shown on slide 3. After prepared remarks from Jack, Anatol and Zach, we will open the call for Q&A.

    我們簡報的第 2 頁包含對這些前瞻性陳述及相關風險的討論。此外,非 GAAP 指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標之間的調節表可在簡報附錄中找到。會議議程列於第 3 頁。在 Jack、Anatol 與 Zach 的準備發言之後,我們將開放問答。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's Chairman, President and CEO.

    現在我把電話會議交給 Cheniere 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our results from the third quarter of 2026 and the third consecutive increase in our annual financial guidance. Volatility in the global LNG market persisted throughout the third quarter, and the market remains supply constrained without a lasting resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, even as we approach the peak winter months in key LNG demand centers.

    謝謝你,Randy。各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們,一同回顧 2026 年第三季的業績,以及我們年度財務指引連續第三次上調。全球 LNG 市場的波動在第三季持續存在;在中東衝突尚未獲得持久解決的情況下,市場仍然供給受限,即便我們正接近主要 LNG 需求中心的冬季用氣高峰月份。

  • Cheniere's stable and reliable operations, coupled with our new capacity from Corpus Christi Stage 3 all benefit the market's overall balances, but the prices we are seeing today, especially in the spot market are a clear signal that the market needs additional LNG supply.

    Cheniere 穩定可靠的營運,加上 Corpus Christi 第三期(Stage 3)新增產能,整體上有助於市場供需平衡;但我們今天看到的價格,尤其是現貨市場的價格,清楚顯示市場需要更多 LNG 供應。

  • Against that backdrop, we have seen significant commercial momentum across short, medium and especially long-term contract structures, which not only reinforce the themes around energy security, diversity and durability of supply portfolios that we discussed last quarter but also helps provide the commercial support necessary for Cheniere to answer the market's calls for new supply while holding to our financial standard.

    在此背景下,我們看到短期、中期,尤其是長期合約架構方面出現顯著的商務動能;這不僅強化了我們上季討論的能源安全、供應多元化與供應組合韌性等主題,也有助於提供 Cheniere 在堅守財務標準的同時回應市場新增供給需求所必需的商務支持。

  • As you have seen, last Thursday at the QatarEnergy headquarters in Doha, is Excellency Minister, Al-Kaabi and I executed 4 million tons of long-term SPAs. We reminisced about our last meeting in February, we're thinking about QE as a long-term buyer would have sounded outlandish. The discussion highlighted how closely our views align, both anchored in a long-term perspective, and shared values of honesty and respect.

    如各位所見,上週四在多哈的 QatarEnergy 總部,尊敬的 Al-Kaabi 部長閣下與我簽署了 400 萬噸的長期 SPA。我們回憶起 2 月上次會面時,若說 QE 會成為長期買方,聽起來還相當不可思議。

  • Very few have been impacted by the war in Iran in the new regional order as much as Qatar and QE in particular. They built a business and strong reputation as the must reliable LNG producer. Aa a world [cup] ended it is truly impressive, he didn't just wait for the returned to normal. Instead, they embarked on a [board] new vision to redefine themselves. His Excellency made it clear that he wanted the first step of their new strategy to be a long-term SBA with Cheniere. For that, I'm truly grateful and humbled to add QE as a long-term customer.

    在伊朗戰爭與新的區域秩序之下,受到影響最深的少數之一就是卡達,尤其是 QE。他們建立了一門事業,並以最可靠的 LNG 生產商之姿樹立了強大聲譽。當世界[盃]結束時,令人印象深刻的是,他並未只是等待一切回歸正常。相反地,他們展開了一個[全然]新的願景來重新定義自己。部長閣下明確表示,他希望其新策略的第一步,就是與 Cheniere 簽訂長期 SBA。為此,我由衷感謝,也深感榮幸能將 QE 納入我們的長期客戶。

  • Please turn to slide 5, where I'll highlight our key results and accomplishments for the third quarter of 2026 and introduced our upwardly revised guidance ranges for the full year. We achieved two major milestones during the third quarter, the production and export of our 5,000 LNG cargo on the substantial completion of the seventh and final train of Corpus Christi Stage 3.

    請翻到第 5 頁,我將重點說明 2026 年第三季的主要成果與里程碑,並介紹我們上調後的全年指引區間。第三季我們達成兩項重大里程碑:完成第 5,000 船 LNG 貨物的生產與出口,以及 Corpus Christi 第三期第七座也是最後一座液化列車(train)的實質完工。

  • Cheniere achieved a 5,000 cargo milestone faster than any other LNG producer in the world, reaching the mark just 10 years after our first cargo. Those 5,000 Cheniere cargoes represent over 340 million tons of LNG that we have supplied powering in economies in improving lines in markets around the world.

    Cheniere 以全球任何 LNG 生產商中最快的速度達成第 5,000 船里程碑,距離我們第一船出貨僅 10 年即達成。這 5,000 船 Cheniere 貨物代表我們已供應超過 3.4 億噸 LNG,為全球各地的經濟體提供動力,並改善各市場的生活水準。

  • On our August earnings call, I told you that first LNG from Train 7 at Stage 3 was imminent, and it happened that weekend. Barely three weeks later in late August, substantial completion of Train 7 was achieved, completing the Stage 3 project and familiar Cheniere Bechtel fashion, safely, ahead of schedule and on budget.

    在 8 月的財報電話會議上,我曾告訴各位第三期第 7 列車的首批 LNG 即將產出,而就在那個週末便實現了。僅僅三週後、8 月下旬,第 7 列車達成實質完工,完成第三期專案;並以 Cheniere 與 Bechtel 一貫的方式,在安全前提下、提前完工且符合預算。

  • I'd like to congratulate all of our employees around the world in these remarkable achievements. As they are enabled by the hard work and dedication of our entire workforce and their commitment to operational excellence, in safety every single day.

    我想祝賀我們全球各地的所有員工達成這些卓越成就。這些成果來自我們全體員工的辛勤付出與投入,以及他們每天對營運卓越與安全的承諾。

  • Cheniere's stable and reliable LNG operations, coupled with sustained elevated market pricing continued throughout the third quarter. We generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion. Distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of approximately $1.2 billion. During the third quarter, we produced and exported a quarterly record 188 cargoes or 684 TBtu an approximately 17% increase over the same period last year.

    Cheniere 穩定可靠的 LNG 營運,加上市場價格持續維持在高檔,於第三季延續。我們的合併調整後 EBITDA 約為 19 億美元。可分配現金流(DCF)約為 12 億美元,淨利約為 12 億美元。第三季我們生產並出口創季度新高的 188 船貨物,或 684 TBtu,較去年同期約增加 17%。

  • Our production and operations continued to outperform in the third quarter, thanks to the accelerated system completion and start-up of the 7th train in Stage 3 as well as higher reliability rates compared to the third quarter of 2025. And earlier this week, we achieved an all-time daily production record of over 8.33 TBtus produced across Sabine and Corpus as we continue to outperform at both sites.

    受惠於第三期第 7 列車系統完工與啟動的加速推進,以及相較 2025 年第三季更高的可靠度,我們第三季的產量與營運表現持續超越預期。而在本週稍早,我們在 Sabine 與 Corpus 兩地合計創下單日歷史新高產量紀錄,日產量超過 8.33 TBtu,顯示兩個基地的表現持續優於預期。

  • For the third consecutive quarter, we are increasing our full year 2026 financial guidance. This time, to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion of consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $6.05 billion to $6.55 billion of DCF. Zach will cover the details of this guidance increase later on the call. We look forward to delivering financial results within these further upwardly revised ranges for the year.

    我們連續第三個季度上調 2026 年全年財務指引。本次上調至合併調整後 EBITDA 87.5 億至 92.5 億美元,以及 DCF 60.5 億至 65.5 億美元。Zach 稍後將在會議中說明此次上調的細節。我們期待在今年進一步上調後的區間內交付財務成果。

  • Anatol and the commercial team have been extremely busy and since our last call have signed long-term SBAs with two new customers, aggregating approximately 5 million tons extending into the 2050s, and which we expect to support our brownfield growth plans at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi.

    Anatol 與商務團隊一直非常忙碌;自上次電話會議以來,我們已與兩家新客戶簽署長期 SBA,合計約 500 萬噸,合約延伸至 2050 年代,預期將支持我們在 Sabine Pass 與 Corpus Christi 兩地的既有場址(brownfield)擴建成長計畫。

  • First, in late September, we announced a new SBA with Petrobras for 0.8 million tons per annum for 22 years. The signing of this contract in the year of our 10th anniversary of our first LNG cargo is particularly special to us since that first LNG cargo we exported back in 2016 and was actually sold to Petrobras. And as I mentioned, we announced new SBAs with QatarEnergy for up to 4 million tons extend into 2054.

    首先,在 9 月下旬,我們宣布與 Petrobras 簽署新的 SBA,年量 80 萬噸、為期 22 年。在我們首船 LNG 出貨 10 週年的這一年簽下這份合約,對我們而言格外特別,因為我們在 2016 年出口的第一船 LNG,實際上就是賣給 Petrobras。此外,如我所提,我們也宣布與 QatarEnergy 簽署新的 SBA,最高可達 400 萬噸,合約延伸至 2054 年。

  • During the quarter, we deployed approximately $1.5 billion under our capital allocation plan. We repurchased approximately 2.8 million shares for approximately $730 million. As persistent volatility in our shares continue to present opportunities for our repurchase plan to be active.

    本季我們依資本配置計畫投入約 15 億美元。我們以約 7.3 億美元回購約 280 萬股。由於我們股價的持續波動仍為回購計畫提供可把握的機會,因此我們將持續保持回購的積極性。

  • We funded nearly $740 million of growth CapEx with equity and debt. And this morning, we announced an increase in our quarterly dividend of over 12% to $0.625 or $2.50 annualized, following through on our commitment to raise the dividend by at least 10% per year through the rest of the decade.

    我們以股權與債務資金為近7.4億美元的成長資本支出(CapEx)提供資金。此外,今天早上我們宣布將季度股利提高逾12%至0.625美元(年化2.50美元),以履行我們的承諾:在本十年剩餘期間,每年至少將股利提高10%。

  • Turn now to slide 6, where I'll provide an update on the status of our brownfield growth projects. First, on the Midscale Trains 8, 9 and debottlenecking project, we have now safely progressed to over 58% complete as of the end of September and continue to track ahead of schedule across critical engineering, procurement and construction work streams.

    接著請看第6頁投影片,我將更新我們棕地成長專案的進度狀況。首先,就Midscale第8、9列車及去瓶頸(debottlenecking)專案而言,截至9月底我們已在安全前提下推進至完成度超過58%,並且在關鍵的工程、採購與施工等工作流上持續領先進度。

  • We crossed over 1 million man-hour threshold on the project in August and construction activities today are focused on piping and steel installation across both trains. Critical equipment such as fabricated steel and coal boxes have arrived at site, which we expect will enable continued progress ahead of schedule as we move further into the construction phase of execution. While we are optimistic, the schedule for midscale 8, 9 can accelerate, we do not currently forecast any volume contribution in 2027 from this project.

    我們在8月跨越了本專案累計100萬工時的門檻,而目前施工活動主要聚焦於兩列車的管線與鋼構安裝。關鍵設備(如製作完成的鋼構件與煤箱)已運抵現場,我們預期這將使我們在進一步進入施工執行階段時,得以持續領先進度。儘管我們對Midscale 8、9的時程可望加速抱持樂觀態度,但目前我們並未預測該專案在2027年會有任何產量貢獻。

  • Next, on Phase 1 of the SPL expansion project, I covered this project in depth last quarter. We're approaching FID on this brownfield expansion, which is expected to add well over 6 million tons per annum of production capacity to our platform at Sabine Pass.

    接下來是SPL擴建專案的第一期;我在上一季已深入說明此專案。我們正接近就此棕地擴建作出最終投資決策(FID),預期將使我們在Sabine Pass的平台新增遠超過每年600萬噸的產能。

  • In September, FERC issued the final Environmental Impact Statement, or EIS, on the SBL expansion project. This important regulatory step increases our visibility to the final approval expected around the end of the year and we intend to FID very quickly thereafter.

    9月,FERC就SBL擴建專案發布了最終環境影響評估書(EIS)。這項重要的監管里程碑提升了我們對預計於年底前後取得最終核准的能見度,而我們也打算在其後非常迅速地作出FID。

  • Also, during the quarter, we obtained commitments from our bank syndicate for a term loan sized to finance approximately 50% of the total estimated project the cost of Phase 1, adding to our confidence in the FID timeline around the end of the year.

    此外,在本季期間,我們也取得銀行聯貸團對一筆定期貸款的承諾,其規模可為第一期專案總預估成本約50%提供融資,進一步強化我們對於年底前後FID時程的信心。

  • Since the beginning of the year, we have spent almost $500 million on early engineering and procurement work with Bechtel and Baker use, given the project a bit of a head start, while derisking costs and schedule with key high-value and long lead time equipment orders.

    自年初以來,我們已在與Bechtel及Baker的前期工程與採購工作上支出近5億美元,使專案得以提前起跑,同時透過針對關鍵高價值與長交期設備下單,降低成本與時程風險。

  • Moving on to Phase 1 of the CCL expansion project. We have advanced this project considerably since our last call with a major regulatory step as well as the commercial progress with our recent long-term contract announcement.

    接著談CCL擴建專案第一期。自上次電話會議以來,我們在此專案上取得顯著進展,包括一項重要的監管里程碑,以及隨著近期長期合約公告所帶來的商務進展。

  • On the regulatory side, in September, we received our draft EIS from FERC solidifying our expectation of a FERC permit around the middle of next year. There are some additional regulatory approvals that will be required in order to FID, but the expected time line of the necessary regulatory approvals around year-end 2027 is intact.

    在監管方面,9月我們收到FERC的EIS草案,進一步鞏固我們對於明年年中左右取得FERC許可的預期。作出FID仍需取得一些額外的監管核准,但所需監管核准預計於2027年年底前後完成的時程仍維持不變。

  • I'm extremely excited and optimistic about these growth projects. The first phases of SPL and CCL expansion projects represent opportunities to accretively grow our platform or over 20%, leveraging our brownfield infrastructure position while maintaining our capital investment discipline and upholding the Cheniere standard.

    我對這些成長專案感到非常興奮且樂觀。SPL與CCL擴建專案的第一期,代表我們有機會在維持資本投資紀律並堅守Cheniere標準的同時,運用既有棕地基礎設施優勢,使我們的平台具增益性地成長逾20%。

  • We believe these projects will enable us to deliver our shareholders more of the through-cycle risk-adjusted returns they have become accustomed to. We continue to be inspired by the increasingly critical role Cheniere plays in the global energy market, and growth projects like these help ensure our position, delivering on our promises to customers, investors, communities and employees will endure for decades to come.

    我們相信,這些專案將使我們能為股東帶來更多他們已習以為常的、跨景氣循環的風險調整後報酬。Cheniere在全球能源市場中日益關鍵的角色持續激勵著我們,而像這樣的成長專案有助於確保我們的地位,並確保我們對客戶、投資人、社區與員工的承諾在未來數十年仍能延續。

  • With that, I'll now hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.

    接下來,我把時間交給Anatol來討論LNG市場。再次感謝各位持續支持Cheniere。

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. Third quarter provided a clear reminder that the global LNG industry continues to function under a sustained supply disruption. Starting in the upper left, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz did increase towards the end of the quarter.

    謝謝你,Jack,各位早安。請翻到第8頁投影片。第三季清楚提醒我們,全球LNG產業仍在持續的供應中斷之下運作。先看左上角,經由荷姆茲海峽的船舶通行量在季末確實有所增加。

  • LNG tanker transits briefly reached roughly 50% of pre-war peak levels before declining again in recent weeks. This reversal comes in a significant deterioration in security and stability as the tax on vessels have accelerated sharply, including those targeting LNG carriers. The brief recovery in transits, therefore, should not be read as evidence of normalization and transit levels are likely to remain uneven.

    LNG運輸船的通行量一度短暫回升至戰前峰值水準的大約50%,但在最近幾週又再度下滑。這一逆轉發生在安全與穩定顯著惡化之際,對船舶的攻擊急遽加速,其中也包括針對LNG運輸船的攻擊。因此,通行量的短暫回升不應被解讀為情勢正常化的證據,通行水準很可能仍將維持不均衡。

  • Average transit activity remains materially below prewar levels. LNG flows remain constrained, and the recent increase has already shown signs of reversing as security conditions deteriorate. The impact is visible in global supply with cumulative LNG export growth turning negative during the third quarter as losses from straight constrained supply more than offset growth elsewhere.

    平均通行活動仍明顯低於戰前水準。LNG流量仍受限,而近期的增加已在安全情勢惡化下顯示出反轉跡象。其影響可在全球供給端看見:第三季累計LNG出口成長轉為負值,因海峽受限所造成的供應損失,超過了其他地區的成長。

  • Higher production, stronger loadings from the United States and Canada provided meaningful support, but were not sufficient to fully replace those lost volumes. This tightening was clearly reflected in prices. TTF and JKM averaged over $21 and $22 per MMBtu, respectively, over the quarter, with price appreciation accelerating from July.

    美國與加拿大較高的產量與更強勁的裝船量提供了有意義的支撐,但仍不足以完全彌補流失的供應量。這種緊縮在價格上反映得非常明顯。本季TTF與JKM平均價格分別超過每百萬英熱單位(MMBtu)21美元與22美元,且自7月以來漲勢加速。

  • The rise was also reflected in the forward curves for both benchmarks since our last call in August, with TTF and JKM each up over $10 per annum for Cal '27, 76% and 74% higher, respectively. Importantly, the move has not been limited to '27, prices and netbacks through the end of the decade have also moved higher as the market is increasingly pricing the possibility that the current disruption persists for longer than initially expected, and we have been opportunistic along the liquid part of the curve with placing some unsold volume recently and capturing these higher margins.

    自我們8月上次電話會議以來,這波上漲也反映在兩個基準的遠期曲線上:TTF與JKM在2027年曆年(Cal '27)的年均價格各上升逾10美元,分別高出76%與74%。重要的是,這一變動並不限於2027年;直到本十年末的價格與淨回收(netbacks)也同步走高,因市場愈來愈在定價「當前中斷情勢可能比原先預期持續更久」的可能性。我們也在曲線較具流動性的區段把握機會,近期配置部分未售量並鎖定較高的利潤。

  • The demand response has also been notable. China remains the clearest example of a market with demand flexibility, and we expect its LNG imports to finish the year at approximately 60 million tons, down for a second consecutive year. But several markets traditionally viewed as highly price-sensitive have remained surprisingly resilient.

    需求端的反應同樣值得關注。中國仍是需求具彈性的最明顯例子,我們預期其全年LNG進口量約為6,000萬噸,連續第二年下滑。但一些傳統上被視為對價格高度敏感的市場,表現卻出乎意料地具韌性。

  • Southeast Asia imported approximately 25% more LNG year-to-date, led by Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, and even smaller markets such as Vietnam and the Philippines showed positive demand growth as well.

    東南亞今年迄今LNG進口量約增加25%,主要由泰國、馬來西亞與印尼帶動;甚至越南與菲律賓等較小市場也呈現正向需求成長。

  • In South Asia, while Pakistan continues to show weakness as expected due to factors particular to its economy and policy constraints, India's demand for cargoes remains resilient. LNG in ports country have risen 21% year-to-date and 9% year-over-year in Q3 and despite average JKM prices that are 43% and 94% higher compared to 25%.

    在南亞方面,雖然巴基斯坦如預期般因其經濟與政策限制等特定因素而持續疲弱,但印度對現貨船貨的需求仍具韌性。該國港口LNG進口量今年迄今上升21%,第三季年增9%,儘管平均JKM價格分別較25%高出43%與94%。

  • Growth across these regions is particularly notable, especially generally difficult market conditions and growing competition for limited supplies. Price sensitivity remains very real, particularly in China, but elevated prices have not resulted in broad-based demand destruction across emerging Asia.

    在整體市場環境特別艱困、且對有限供應的競爭加劇之際,這些地區的成長尤其值得注意。價格敏感性仍非常真實,特別是在中國;但高企的價格並未在新興亞洲引發廣泛的需求破壞。

  • We expect this competition to continue to intensify through the fourth quarter as the two major basins compete for winter supplies. Europe entered October was storage at approximately 72% full, the lowest level for that date since 2011. That leaves the region with materially less inventory cushion than in recent winters and increases its needs to compete for LNG through the coming winter.

    我們預期這種競爭在第四季將持續升溫,因兩大主要供應盆地將為冬季供應而競逐。歐洲在10月初的庫存約為72%滿,為2011年以來同日最低水準。這使該地區相較近幾個冬季的庫存緩衝明顯較少,並提高其在即將到來的冬季期間競逐LNG的需求。

  • Following the sharp increase in US LNG deliveries to Asia earlier this year, Europe has already begun pulling a greater share of US volumes back towards the Atlantic as it prepares for winter. So the message from the third quarter is straightforward.

    繼今年稍早美國液化天然氣(LNG)對亞洲交付量大幅增加之後,歐洲在為冬季做準備之際,已開始將更多美國供應量拉回大西洋市場。因此,第三季傳遞的訊息很直接。

  • Supply growth outside the Strait has helped, but the global LNG market has not yet rebuilt an adequate buffer. Until currently constrained supply recovers more consistently, we expect competition for available cargoes to remain elevated.

    海峽以外地區的供給成長有所助益,但全球LNG市場尚未重建足夠的緩衝。在目前受限的供給更持續且更一致地恢復之前,我們預期對可用貨船的競爭仍將維持在高檔。

  • Let's turn to slide 9 to elaborate further. One of the key components of greater market resilience is infrastructure. Over the last four years, following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Europe invested significantly in LNG Regas capacity to help phase out Russian gas.

    接著請看第9頁投影片,以進一步說明。提升市場韌性的關鍵要素之一是基礎設施。過去四年,在俄烏危機之後,歐洲大幅投資於LNG再氣化(Regas)能力,以協助逐步淘汰俄羅斯天然氣。

  • Today, Europe has about 73 MTPA more total Regas capacity than it did in 2022, while the winter balance shown in the chart benefits from roughly 37 million tons of additional seasonal deliverability. That expansion has proved crucial in managing bottlenecks and increasing optionality and it significantly reduced Russian gas supplies over the past two years.

    目前,歐洲的再氣化總產能較2022年增加約73百萬噸/年(MTPA),而圖表所示的冬季平衡亦受惠於約3,700萬噸的額外季節性可交付量。此一擴張在管理瓶頸、提升選擇性方面證明至關重要,並在過去兩年顯著降低了俄羅斯天然氣供應。

  • Europe begins this winter from a much lower storage position, while at the same time, Russian supply is scheduled to decline further as LNG restrictions take effect and pipeline imports continue to be phased out. The chart on the left puts those factors together.

    歐洲以更低的庫存水位進入本冬季;同時,隨著LNG限制生效以及管線進口持續被逐步淘汰,俄羅斯供應預計將進一步下降。左側圖表將這些因素整合呈現。

  • We show Europe's historical winter supply from domestic production, pipeline imports, storage withdrawals and LNG and overlay the available Regas headroom and end of winter storage buffer. Even assuming Europe exits winter with a relatively lean storage buffer of 30 Bcm or approximately 28% full, broadly consistent with last year, it would require around 93 Bcm or 69 million tons of LNG.

    我們展示歐洲歷史冬季供應來源,包括國內產量、管線進口、庫存提取與LNG,並疊加可用的再氣化餘裕以及冬末庫存緩衝。即使假設歐洲在冬季結束時僅保有相對偏低的30 Bcm(十億立方公尺)庫存緩衝、約28%滿庫,與去年大致一致,仍將需要約93 Bcm或6,900萬噸的LNG。

  • That is approximately 7% more than last winter, equivalent to roughly 64 additional cargoes. That will come in a global LNG market where cumulative supply growth has turned negative, meaning Europe will need to compete more aggressively with other buyers for a smaller pool of available incremental volume.

    這約比去年冬季多7%,相當於約增加64船貨。而在全球LNG市場累計供給成長已轉為負值的情況下,歐洲將必須更積極地與其他買方競爭,以爭取更小的可用增量供應池。

  • There is some flexibility around that outcome. Storage could be drawn lower, but not indefinitely. The historical low was around 18%, reached in 2018 when Europe entered the following summer with much greater certainty around Russian pipeline supply than it has today. That suggests the practical downside from a 28% exit level is limited, particularly given the need to refill inventories ahead of the following winter.

    上述結果仍存在一定彈性。庫存可以再往下提取,但不可能無限降低。歷史低點約為18%,出現在2018年,當時歐洲進入隔年夏季時,對俄羅斯管線供應的確定性遠高於今日。這意味著若以28%作為冬末水位,實務上可下探的空間有限,尤其考量仍需在下一個冬季前回補庫存。

  • Importantly, supply conditions in individual countries could be much tighter than the European average we tend to focus on as is currently the case in Germany, Netherlands, Austria and others. This can create regional inventory and deliverability stress even if the aggregate balance looks manageable.

    重要的是,個別國家的供應條件可能比我們通常關注的歐洲平均值緊得多,例如目前的德國、荷蘭、奧地利等。即使總體平衡看似可控,仍可能造成區域性的庫存與可交付量壓力。

  • Weather remains another important uncertainty across recent winters, the difference between a warm and a cold winter has been roughly 25 Bcm of demand. Relative to approximately 104 Bcm of European storage capacity that represents roughly 10 percentage-points to 15 percentage-points of potential upside or downside to end winter inventories around our base case.

    天氣仍是近年冬季的另一項重要不確定因素;暖冬與寒冬之間的需求差異約為25 Bcm。相對於歐洲約104 Bcm的儲氣容量,這代表在我們基準情境下,冬末庫存可能出現約10到15個百分點的上行或下行空間。

  • Europe has sufficient infrastructure to balance the winter, but the margin for error is limited. The key question is when the price signal is required this winter to attract additional LNG or in '27 to rebuild inventories.

    歐洲具備足夠的基礎設施以平衡冬季供需,但容錯空間有限。關鍵問題在於:今年冬季為吸引額外LNG,或在2027年為重建庫存,何時需要透過價格訊號來發揮作用。

  • Beyond import infrastructure, the industry overall has also been working to build supplies. The industry reached FID on 77 million tons per annum last year and a further 52 million tons per annum so far this year. This capacity will, of course, help the market balance over time even if our moves flows remain constrained for longer.

    除進口基礎設施外,整體產業也一直在努力擴增供給。產業去年就每年7,700萬噸產能做出最終投資決定(FID),而今年迄今又新增每年5,200萬噸。當然,這些產能將隨時間推進協助市場達成平衡,即使我們的流向仍可能在更長時間內受限。

  • Focusing on this year, increased supplies from US and Canada added 23 million tons and together with a 14 million ton increase elsewhere, nearly offset the 41 million-ton year-over-year loss due to the Straits closure. Absent the disruption, this additional supply would have otherwise contributed to incremental liquidity and flexibility, supporting much-needed price moderation and market balancing.

    聚焦今年,美國與加拿大的增量供給增加2,300萬噸,加上其他地區增加1,400萬噸,幾乎抵銷了因海峽關閉造成的年對年4,100萬噸減少。若無此干擾,這些新增供給原本將有助於提升額外流動性與彈性,支持市場亟需的價格降溫與供需再平衡。

  • Looking forward, projects already under construction continue to add supply. As shown in the middle chart, global LNG supply growth resumes from 2028 and even if currently Strait constrained volumes remain unavailable. Any recovery of those volumes would provide additional supply availability.

    展望未來,已在建的專案將持續增加供給。如中間圖表所示,自2028年起全球LNG供給成長將恢復,即使目前受海峽限制的供給量仍無法回歸亦然。若這些供給量有任何恢復,將提供額外的可用供應。

  • Finally, the chart on the right illustrates how the global demand landscape continues to grow if supply availability is not handicapped. This growth is anchored by three pillars in Asia, complemented by other regions and sectors.

    最後,右側圖表說明:在供給可用性未受掣肘的情況下,全球需求版圖仍持續成長。此一成長以亞洲三大支柱為核心,並由其他地區與產業部門加以補充。

  • China remains an important source of long-term demand growth even though near-term imports have proven highly flexible. The more notable development in '26 has been the resilience of South and Southeast Asian demand despite unusually high prices and constrained supply.

    中國仍是長期需求成長的重要來源,儘管短期進口已證明具有高度彈性。在2026年更值得注意的發展,是南亞與東南亞需求在價格異常偏高且供給受限的情況下仍展現韌性。

  • Several of these markets will continue to grow LNG consumption in what has effectively been a significant real-world stress fast affordably. In parallel [buyers] that made long-term commitments and are receiving their contracted volumes have been better positioned to manage spot market volatility.

    其中若干市場將在某種程度上等同於一次重大的真實世界壓力測試中,仍持續增加LNG消費,且具可負擔性。同時,[買方]若已做出長期承諾並正在接收其合約量,則更能妥善應對現貨市場波動。

  • Current pricing illustrates this. Long-term contracted Henry Hub-linked FOB cargoes are currently loading in roughly the $6 per MMBtu range compared with global spot prices at times above $30 in MMBtu. This pricing differential highlights how long-term contracting can support affordability and protect against extreme volatility.

    目前的價格即反映了這一點。與亨利港(Henry Hub)連結的長期合約FOB貨物,目前裝船價格約在每百萬英熱單位(MMBtu)6美元區間,相較之下全球現貨價格有時高於每MMBtu 30美元。此一價差凸顯長期簽約可支持可負擔性,並防範極端波動。

  • Looking later in the decade, additional liquefaction capacity should improve both availability and affordability of supplies supporting a reacceleration in underlying LNG demand growth across a broader range of markets.

    在本十年稍後,新增液化產能應可同時改善供給的可得性與可負擔性,並支持更廣泛市場中基礎LNG需求成長再度加速。

  • That broadening demand base is already visible in our own commercial activity, including the recently announced Petrobras agreement and our newly announced agreement with QatarEnergy, we have executed nearly 5 mtpa of long-term agreements with new to Cheniere counterparties from new to Cheniere regions.

    這種需求基礎的擴大,已在我們自身的商業活動中可見一斑,包括近期宣布的Petrobras協議以及我們新近宣布與QatarEnergy的協議;我們已與來自Cheniere新區域、且為Cheniere新對手方的客戶,簽署近每年500萬噸(mtpa)的長期協議。

  • We think that is an important validation of both the increasingly diverse sources of long-term LNG demand and, in particular, the strength and continued attractiveness of Cheniere's commercial offering. We remain actively engaged with counterparties powered by our strong relationships with the most active LNG players through our marketing and origination teams.

    我們認為,這是對長期LNG需求來源日益多元化的關鍵驗證,尤其也驗證了Cheniere商業方案的實力與持續吸引力。憑藉我們行銷與開發團隊與最活躍LNG業者建立的強大關係,我們仍在積極與各對手方互動。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給Zach,請他回顧我們的財務結果與指引。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to discuss our financial results, our further improved financial forecast for 2026, our follow through on our capital allocation plans and our preliminary production outlook for 2027.

    謝謝你,Anatol,各位早安。我很高興今天在此討論我們的財務結果、我們對2026年進一步上調的財務預測、我們在資本配置計畫上的持續落實,以及我們對2027年的初步產量展望。

  • Please turn to slide 11. For the third quarter of 2026, we generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of approximately $1.2 billion. Compared to 3Q 2025, our results reflect higher volumes of LNG delivered, higher marketing margins achieved as well as contributions from further optimization, both upstream and downstream of our facilities.

    請翻到第11頁投影片。2026年第三季,我們的合併調整後EBITDA約為19億美元,可分配現金流(DCF)約為12億美元,淨利約為12億美元。相較於2025年第三季(3Q 2025),我們的結果反映了交付的LNG量增加、行銷利差提升,以及我們在設施上游與下游進一步最佳化所帶來的貢獻。

  • For the quarter, we recognized in income a new quarterly record of 697 TBtu of LNG. Thanks to improved operational reliability across our platform, as well as the substantial completion of Stage 3. Our quarterly volumes recognized in income continue to be impacted by period-to-period in transit cargo dynamics. While the third quarter volumes benefited from in-transit volume at the end of Q2, the impact to EBITDA and DCF was offset by the in-transit volume at the end of 3Q and given today's even more elevated and volatile margin environment.

    本季我們在損益中認列的LNG達到697 TBtu,創下新的單季紀錄,這得益於我們平台整體營運可靠度提升,以及第三階段(Stage 3)實質完工。我們每季在損益中認列的量仍會受到期與期之間在途貨物動態的影響。雖然第三季的量受惠於第二季末的在途量,但對EBITDA與DCF的影響被第三季末的在途量所抵銷,且在當前利差環境更為高檔且波動更大的情況下亦是如此。

  • Our strong operational and financial results year-to-date enabled our team to deploy approximately $1.5 billion under our capital allocation plan. As Jack noted, this morning, we declared a dividend of $0.625 per common share or $2.50 annualized an increase of over 12% from the prior quarter.

    截至目前為止,我們強勁的營運與財務表現,使團隊得以依照資本配置計畫部署約15億美元。如Jack今早所提,我們宣布每股普通股股利為0.625美元(年化為2.50美元),較上一季提高逾12%。

  • With this increase, we have grown our dividend by approximately 90% since its initiation five years ago, and we maintain our commitment to growing the dividend by at least 10% annually through the end of this decade while maintaining a relatively low dividend payout ratio to ensure our financial flexibility through cycle to self-fund our accretive growth objectives and maintain an opportunistic and impactful share repurchase program to have a strong shareholder return payout ratio.

    隨著此次調升,自五年前開始發放股利以來,我們的股利已累計成長約90%;同時,我們仍承諾在本十年結束前,每年至少將股利提高10%,並維持相對較低的股利支付率,以確保我們在景氣循環中仍具財務彈性,得以以自有資金支持具增值性的成長目標,並維持具機會性且具影響力的庫藏股回購計畫,以形成強勁的股東回饋支付率。

  • Case in point in third quarter we repurchase approximately 2.8 million shares, or approximately $730 million. As of today, filing we are down to approximately 204 million shares outstanding, having repurchased over 8 million shares year-to-date deploying over $2 billion as we systematically allocate and opportunistically deploy the remaining approximately $8 billion under our current share repurchase authorization.

    以第三季為例,我們回購約280萬股,金額約7.30億美元。截至今日申報時點,我們流通在外股數約為2.04億股;今年迄今已回購超過800萬股、投入超過20億美元。我們將在現行股票回購授權下,系統性配置並把握機會部署剩餘約80億美元。

  • As a key tenet of our capital allocation strategy, share repurchases remain an advantaged form of capital return for shareholders, enabling all of us to own more of Sabine and Corpus over time, and the billions of dollars of contracted cash flows into the second half of the century. While still prioritizing our ability to continue to accretively grow our infrastructure platform.

    作為我們資本配置策略的關鍵原則之一,股票回購仍是對股東而言具優勢的資本回饋方式,使我們所有人能隨時間推進持有更多Sabine與Corpus的權益,以及延伸至本世紀下半葉、以合約鎖定的數十億美元現金流。同時仍優先確保我們能持續以具增值性的方式擴大我們的基礎設施平台。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. I'd like to first highlight that last week, S&P upgraded Corpus Christi Holdings to A-, reflecting the substantial completion of Stage 3 and marking the first A-grade rating across the Cheniere complex. A testament to the strategic management of our balance sheet over the years.

    接著談資產負債表。我想先強調,上週S&P將Corpus Christi Holdings的評等上調至A-,反映第三期(Stage 3)已大致完工,並標誌著Cheniere整體架構中首次出現A級評等。這也證明我們多年來對資產負債表的策略性管理。

  • We expect our ratings to remain in the current ranges of low A to high BBB at the projects and solidly BBB or better at the corporates going forward. These levels enable us to maintain sufficient leverage capacity to fund our growth effectively with up to 50% leverage and internally generated cash flows.

    我們預期未來評等將維持在目前區間:專案層級為低A至高BBB,企業層級則穩健維持BBB或更佳。這些水準使我們能保有足夠的槓桿容量,以最高約50%的槓桿比搭配內部產生的現金流,有效為成長提供資金。

  • During the quarter, we launched the financing for the first phase of the SBL expansion project, securing commitments for a $3.25 billion senior secured delayed draw term loan. Along with previous excess bond proceeds, it will finance 50% of the expected total cost of the project. While the other half of total project costs for the first phase will be funded with cash flows from SBL operations.

    本季我們啟動SBL擴建專案第一期的融資,取得32.5億美元優先擔保延遲提用定期貸款的承諾。連同先前的超額債券募集款項,將可為該專案預期總成本的50%提供資金。而第一期其餘一半的專案總成本,將由SBL營運現金流支應。

  • We expect to close on this facility and SBL and CQP revolver extension upon receipt of the remaining permit approvals and a formal FID. We appreciate the long-term support of our bank group of over 35 global financial institutions that has consistently partnered with us through the years, helping Cheniere to consistently deliver world-class infrastructure projects with market-leading economics.

    我們預期在取得其餘許可核准及正式FID後,完成該融資案的交割,並完成SBL與CQP循環信貸(revolver)展期。對於由超過35家全球金融機構組成之銀行團長期以來的支持,我們深表感謝;多年來他們持續與我們合作,協助Cheniere一貫交付世界級基礎設施專案,並具備市場領先的經濟效益。

  • During the quarter, we funded over [$700 million] of growth capital across our business as we progress construction of Midscale 8 and 9, development of the SPL and CCL expansion projects as well as enhancing our Gregory Power Plant.

    本季,隨著我們推進Midscale 8與9的建造、SPL與CCL擴建專案的開發,以及對Gregory電廠的強化,我們在全業務範圍投入超過7億美元的成長資本。

  • Of the total spend during the quarter, over $600 million (sic – see press release, "$626 million") as equity funded with cash flows from operations. Over half of the spend during the quarter was related to the Midscale trains recently completed or currently under construction.

    在本季總支出中,超過6億美元(原文誤植,請見新聞稿「6.26億美元」)為以營運現金流提供的股權資金。本季支出中有一半以上與近期完工或正在建造的Midscale液化列車相關。

  • With commercial support in place, the EPC contract and financing commitments lined up, we are well positioned to reach FID on the first phase of the SBL expansion project in the coming months after receipt of final regulatory approvals. This project has been developed to maximize brownfield economics and meet or exceed our required hurdle rates under our disciplined approach to growth capital investments.

    在商業支持到位、EPC合約與融資承諾均已就緒的情況下,我們在取得最終監管核准後的未來數月內,已具備就SBL擴建專案第一期達成FID的良好條件。本專案的開發旨在最大化既有場址(brownfield)的經濟效益,並在我們嚴謹的成長資本投資紀律下,達到或超越所要求的門檻報酬率。

  • With Phase 1 of the SBL expansion project now at the starting line, our development efforts turn squarely to Corpus, ensuring the first phase of the CCL expansion project meets the same high standard in order to deliver our shareholders the most competitive risk-adjusted returns in energy infrastructure today.

    隨著SBL擴建專案第一期如今已站上起跑線,我們的開發工作將明確轉向Corpus,確保CCL擴建專案第一期同樣符合高標準,從而為股東帶來當今能源基礎設施領域最具競爭力的風險調整後報酬。

  • With the recent nearly 5 million tons per annum of long-term contracts signed, we are commercially well placed for the first phase expansion at Corpus to grow the overall platform to approximately 75 MTPA, approximately 25% growth from a run rate production profile today with Midscale 8 and 9.

    隨著近期簽署近每年500萬噸的長期合約,我們在Corpus第一期擴建的商業面已具備良好基礎,可將整體平台擴大至約7,500萬噸/年(MTPA),相較於目前包含Midscale 8與9的運轉率產量概況,約成長25%。

  • Turning now to slide 12, where I will discuss our upwardly revised 2026 financial guidance as well as introduce our preliminary production forecast for 2027. We are raising our guidance ranges for full year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow by $850 million and $750 million, respectively. Bringing expected consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion and distributable cash flow to $6.05 billion to $6.55 billion, representing over $30 per share of DCF.

    接著看第12頁投影片,我將說明我們上修後的2026年財務指引,並介紹我們對2027年的初步產量預測。我們將2026全年合併調整後EBITDA與可分配現金流(DCF)的指引區間,分別上調8.50億美元與7.50億美元。使預期合併調整後EBITDA達87.5億至92.5億美元、可分配現金流達60.5億至65.5億美元,折合每股DCF超過30美元。

  • Compared to the initial 2026 guidance provided in February, we have raised the midpoint of EBITDA guidance by $2 billion. Today, we are also tightening our CQP distribution guidance for the year, increasing the midpoint by $0.10 to $3.30 to $3.40 per common unit. These increases are primarily driven by further improvement in global gas spreads since our last call.

    相較於2月提供的初始2026年指引,我們已將EBITDA指引中位數上調20億美元。今天我們也收斂(縮窄)本年度CQP配息指引,將中位數上調0.10美元至每普通單位3.30至3.40美元。這些上調主要反映自上次電話會議以來,全球天然氣價差進一步改善。

  • Despite less than 1 million tons open as of the last call, Train 7 of Stage 3 was completed a few weeks earlier than forecast, and the balance of the year LNG netbacks have moved materially up ahead of the winter heating season from over $10 in August to over $20 today.

    儘管在上次電話會議時未售出量不到100萬噸,第三期(Stage 3)的第7列車(Train 7)仍比預測提前數週完工;且在進入冬季供暖季之前,今年剩餘期間的LNG淨回收(netbacks)已明顯上升,從8月的每單位超過10美元提高到今天的超過20美元。

  • The timing of a few year-end high-margin CMI cargoes shifting into 2026 also contributed to today's increase. And as always, optimization, upstream and downstream of the plant locked in amidst the volatility provided an additional tailwind.

    此外,少數原本預計於年底出貨的高毛利CMI貨物(cargo)時點移轉至2026年,也促成了本次上調。一如既往,在波動環境下,我們在工廠上游與下游所進行並鎖定的最佳化操作,也帶來額外助力。

  • We are maintaining our expected 2026 production range of 53 million to 54 million tons. And we have very little volume remaining unsold for the balance of 2026. However, despite having very little open exposure, we are maintaining the $500 million guidance ranges like we did in 2022's price environment.

    我們維持2026年預期產量區間為5,300萬至5,400萬噸。且在2026年剩餘期間,我們幾乎沒有尚未售出的量。然而,儘管未對外曝險的未售量很少,我們仍如同2022年價格環境時一樣,維持5億美元的指引區間寬度。

  • As results could still be impacted by a number of factors, particularly given the sustained elevated pricing and volatility in LNG markets. As one cargo sold at spot prices today could contribute almost $100 million in EBITDA, amplifying the potential impact from timing of certain cargoes around year-end and from even the slightest movements in the production forecast while still remaining within our range.

    因結果仍可能受到多項因素影響,特別是在LNG市場價格持續處於高檔且波動的情況下。以目前現貨價格售出的一船貨物,可能就可貢獻近1億美元的EBITDA,從而放大年底前後部分貨物時點變動,以及產量預測即便僅有些微變動(但仍在我們區間內)所帶來的潛在影響。

  • Looking ahead to 2027, we've completed the initial production forecast for both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi with all Midscale trains at Corpus Stage 3 complete and successful debottlenecking achieved across our platform, we expect to produce approximately 56 million to 58 million tons of LNG in total across our two sites next year, up over 3 million tons year-over-year at the midpoint and inclusive of planned maintenance across both sites.

    展望2027年,我們已完成Sabine Pass與Corpus Christi的初步產量預測;在Corpus第三期(Stage 3)所有Midscale列車完工,且我們的平台已成功完成去瓶頸(debottlenecking)後,我們預期明年兩個場址合計可生產約5,600萬至5,800萬噸LNG;以中位數計算,年增超過300萬噸,並已納入兩個場址的計畫性維修。

  • The 2027 production forecast is at the higher end of our run rate guidance with Stage 3 fully operational, thanks to no long duration major turnarounds planned next year as well as the debottlenecking success we've had in recent years.

    2027年產量預測位於我們運轉率指引的較高端,原因在於第三期(Stage 3)將全面運轉、明年未規劃長工期的大型歲修(turnaround),以及我們近年在去瓶頸方面取得的成果。

  • We have several new contracts commencing throughout the year as well as the ramping of some existing contracts, resulting in approximately 52 million tons of volumes sold under long-term contracts in 2027, up from 46 million to 47 million tons in 2026.

    我們在全年有數份新合約陸續開始執行,亦有部分既有合約逐步爬坡增量,因此在2027年,長期合約項下的銷售量約為5,200萬噸,高於2026年的4,600萬至4,700萬噸。

  • Accordingly, we expect to have approximately 5 million tons of spot volume available for CMI to sell into the market or approximately 250 TBtu, which our team has been opportunistically selling and/or hedging throughout this year. Leaving approximately 1 million tons or 50 TBtu of unsold open capacity for full year 2027 as of today.

    因此,我們預期CMI將有約500萬噸的現貨量可供投放市場銷售,約合250 TBtu;我們的團隊今年以來一直把握機會進行銷售及/或避險。截至目前,2027年全年仍約有100萬噸或50 TBtu的未售開放產能。

  • Therefore, we currently forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $50 million for the full year, once again, highlighting the significant cash flow visibility of the contracted platform.

    因此,我們目前預估,市場毛利每變動1美元,對全年EBITDA的影響約為5,000萬美元;這再次凸顯合約化平台帶來的顯著現金流可視性。

  • Consistent with previous years, we intend to provide 2027 financial guidance on our February call. Our track record of consistently outearning our run rate guidance and delivering results well above our initial guidance for the year once again demonstrates the vast competitive advantages afforded by our world-class infrastructure platform.

    與往年一致,我們計畫在2月的電話會議上提供2027年的財務指引。我們一貫能持續超越常態化指引(run rate guidance),並交出遠高於年初指引的成果,再次證明我們世界級基礎設施平台所帶來的巨大競爭優勢。

  • The Cheniere model is underpinned by decades of cash flow visibility from our portfolio of long-term creditworthy contracts and our proactive approach to opportunistically locking in fixed margins for our spot cargo sales and optimizing upstream and downstream of our facilities.

    Cheniere模式的基礎,是我們由具信用實力的長期合約所構成的投資組合,帶來數十年的現金流可視性;同時,我們也採取主動策略,把握時機為現貨貨物銷售鎖定固定毛利,並在設施的上游與下游進行最佳化。

  • Since our last call, we have secured approximately $18 billion of fixed margins of which nearly $1 billion is in the last few months of 2026 alone, plus over $2 billion of additional forward opportunistic selling of CMI cargoes across the next few years. And approximately $15 billion of fixed fees into the second half of this century, thanks to our newly signed long-term contracts with Petrobras and QE.

    自上次電話會議以來,我們已鎖定約180億美元的固定毛利,其中僅2026年最後幾個月就接近10億美元;此外,未來幾年我們也額外以前瞻方式把握機會,預售CMI貨物,金額超過20億美元。並且,受惠於我們與Petrobras及QE新簽署的長期合約,我們已鎖定延伸至本世紀下半葉的約150億美元固定費用。

  • In the midst of the current market volatility Cheniere is doubling down on operational excellence and being the premier contracted infrastructure company with unmatched cash flow visibility and unwavering financial discipline, that should compound over time for continued industry-leading risk-adjusted returns through cycles and for decades to come. That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere.

    在當前市場波動之際,Cheniere將加倍投入營運卓越,致力成為首屈一指的合約化基礎設施公司,具備無可匹敵的現金流可視性與堅定不移的財務紀律;這些優勢將隨時間累積,在不同景氣循環中持續帶來業界領先的風險調整後報酬,並延續數十年。以上為我們預先準備的發言。感謝各位撥冗與對Cheniere的關注。

  • Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

    接線員,我們準備好開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    Theresa Chen,Barclays。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Good morning. Going back to your comments, Jack, on the QatarEnergy SPA. With QE indicating this morning that its US LNG purchases are part of a long-term diversification strategy to hedge against disruptions in the Strait. And given now that QE has been one of your largest global competitors and this new customer.

    早安。回到你先前的評論,Jack,關於QatarEnergy的SPA。QE今天早上表示,其在美國的LNG採購是長期多元化策略的一部分,用以對沖海峽航道中斷的風險。而鑑於QE過去一直是你們全球最大的競爭對手之一,如今又成為新客戶。

  • What does that tell you about the role of US LNG is strategic value? And how the competitive landscape for global liquefaction may be evolving?

    這對你而言,美國LNG的戰略價值角色代表了什麼?以及全球液化市場的競爭格局可能正如何演變?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you, Theresa. It's -- first off, with QE, like I said in my prepared remarks, they of anybody have had the biggest impact from the go for, and I applaud [His Excellency] in his ability to pivot and change his strategy to become more of a diversified trader of LNG. And like Cheniere, QE and Cheniere share quite a few common goals.

    謝謝你,Theresa。首先,關於QE,如我在準備稿中提到的,他們在所有人之中受到「go for」事件的影響最大;我也讚賞[His Excellency]能夠迅速轉向並調整策略,成為更為多元化的LNG交易商。與Cheniere一樣,QE與Cheniere在不少目標上是一致的。

  • So I think yes, is -- LNG is becoming more and more valuable to the world overall, but our relationship and our ability [two]: one, meet their needs; and then two, be a reliable supplier for the world is really showing through. And I'll ask Anatol, Theresa, if he has anything to add since he was with me during the signing ceremony last Thursday.

    所以我認為,是的——LNG對全球而言正變得愈來愈有價值;而我們的合作關係與我們的能力[two]:第一,滿足他們的需求;第二,成為全球可靠的供應商,這些都正充分展現出來。Theresa,我也請Anatol補充幾句,因為上週四簽約儀式時他與我一同出席。

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks, Theresa, thanks, Jack. His Excellency. First of all, I would say, as we've said to you guys. Forever. We never viewed QE as a competitor. It is the bedrock of this industry and we wish it as speedy a recovery as possible to its full potential. But His Excellency months ago said that QE would evolve into the largest trader by far and [quote].

    好的,謝謝你,Theresa,謝謝你,Jack。His Excellency。首先我想說,正如我們一直對各位所說的。一直以來。我們從未把QE視為競爭對手。它是這個產業的基石,我們也祝福它能盡快恢復到其全部潛能。但His Excellency在幾個月前就表示,QE將演進成為迄今為止最大的交易商,並[quote]。

  • And as Jack already mentioned, we look forward to supporting its ambitions and enabling it to restore itself to the reliable operator and able provider to the industry. So we're honored to be partners with QE and look forward to building on that relationship.

    而如Jack已提到的,我們期待支持其雄心,並協助其恢復為產業中可靠的營運者與有能力的供應者。因此,我們很榮幸能與QE成為合作夥伴,並期待在此關係基礎上持續深化。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you. And more near term, as global gas prices continue to climb higher and in the lead up to winter without any obvious near-term relief valve to ease the ongoing supply shock concerns about demand destruction across Europe and Asia remain topical and a full understanding for your earlier comments that demand in ex China and Asia has remained relatively resilient.

    謝謝。再就較近期而言,隨著全球天然氣價格持續走高、且在入冬前看不到明顯的短期紓解閥門以緩和持續的供應衝擊,市場對歐洲與亞洲需求遭到破壞(demand destruction)的疑慮仍是焦點;也完全理解你先前提到,除中國以外的亞洲需求仍相對具韌性。

  • If we do begin to see signs of demand destruction in that region, in particular, how do you think this could impact longer-term adoption rates in the region?

    如果我們開始在該地區看到需求遭破壞的跡象,尤其是,你認為這可能會如何影響該地區長期的採用速度?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, I guess one component of that, as we mentioned and as you know well, is that anybody that has long-term contracts is very insolated from -- it is an industry that is lifting from the US Golf cost is about $6 FOB, in, again, a $30-plus market currently. So for those long-term committed, creditworthy counterparties.

    我想其中一個面向,如我們提到且你也很清楚的是,任何擁有長期合約的人都能在很大程度上與市場隔離——這個產業從美國墨西哥灣(US Golf)的提貨成本約為每單位6美元FOB,而目前市場在30美元以上。因此,對於那些長期承諾、且具信用實力的交易對手而言。

  • The solution is obvious and very attractive. And again, we're honored to be able to reliably supply that. The world though has been surprisingly resilient, as we touched on Europe has seen very little incremental demand destruction as we measure it, it is down roughly 20% since pre the Ukraine war levels, all of that is that demand destruction and demand elasticity. But we don't see Europe in a position to give a lot more.

    解決方案顯而易見且非常具吸引力。而我們也很榮幸能夠可靠地提供供應。不過,全球的韌性其實出乎意料;如我們提到的,歐洲幾乎沒有出現太多額外的需求破壞(以我們的衡量方式),相較烏克蘭戰爭前的水準大約下降20%,而這些下降都可視為需求破壞與需求彈性所致。但我們不認為歐洲還有太多可以再讓出的空間。

  • So how this crisis resolves itself. And this is a crisis that we saw coming in late February, early March and have been discussing it and warning really Europe at large about this ever since. So this is the least surprising development in the LNG market of the year, and we hope that they find a solution, but we actually are pleasantly surprised that we haven't seen a lot of demand destruction.

    因此,這場危機將如何自我化解。而這是一場我們在2月下旬、3月上旬就預見到的危機,從那時起我們就一直在討論,並且坦白說也一直在提醒整個歐洲注意。所以,這是今年LNG市場中最不令人意外的發展;我們希望他們能找到解方,但我們其實也很欣慰,至今並未看到大量的需求破壞。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Irwin, Citi.

    Doug Irwin,Citi。

  • Doug Irwin - Analyst

    Doug Irwin - Analyst

  • Hey, team. Thanks for the question. I wanted to maybe start with the forward sold volumes for 2027. Just on our math, if we take the current curve on unsold volumes, we're getting to maybe an implied market expectation of somewhere around $6 margins on this forward sold volumes baked into current consensus.

    嗨,各位。謝謝讓我提問。我想先從2027年的遠期已售量談起。就我們的計算,如果把目前曲線套用到未售量上,我們推算目前市場共識隱含的預期,大概是在這些遠期已售量中反映了約6美元的毛利。

  • Can you maybe just help frame how we should be thinking about forward sold margins in '27, just given how volatile the commodity tape has been here throughout the year?

    考量今年以來商品行情波動很大,你們能否協助我們理解,對於2027年的遠期已售毛利,我們應該如何看待?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. I'll take this. On the last call in early August, I basically said that we had already sold about 1.5 million tons for 2027 proactively. At that point, it was all well under $10 in the last, let's say, two to three months, we've sold another 2.5 million tons to get to that 4 million ton that we mentioned in the prepared remarks, let's say, well over $10.

    當然,我來回答。在8月初的上次電話會議上,我基本上提到,我們已主動為2027年賣出了約150萬噸。當時的價格都遠低於10美元;而在過去大約兩到三個月,我們又賣出了另外250萬噸,使我們達到準備稿中提到的400萬噸——而這部分的價格可以說遠高於10美元。

  • So for 4 million tons, safe to say that's locked in around $10. We have 5 million tons for the year. So there's still some floating. Margins are clearly higher than that, and that's why we give a little sense to everyone of what $1 move in margins can do for EBITDA next year.

    所以以400萬噸來看,可以說大約以每噸10美元鎖定了。我們全年有500萬噸。所以仍然有一部分是浮動的。利差顯然高於那個水準,這也是為什麼我們想讓大家稍微了解一下,利差每變動1美元,明年對EBITDA會帶來什麼影響。

  • I'd say we have a good amount of open capacity still for this winter and then it's spread out relatively evenly thereafter. But when margins double like this, we're not cute about it. We proactively sell it, lock in the fixed fees and increase the cash flow visibility.

    我會說我們今年冬季仍有相當多的未承諾產能,之後則相對平均地分布。但當利差像這樣翻倍時,我們不會耍小聰明。我們會主動把它賣出去,鎖定固定費用,並提高現金流的可見度。

  • So to think of 2026 is a banner year for -- I mean, we've raised guidance by $2 billion. But the same one-off. It's not going to be too far off in '27 just with adding basically almost 5 million tons of capacity when you think about, the fact that about 1 million tons this year was taken out of P&L because it was commissioning and timing and then selling it at $10.

    所以如果把2026年視為一個旗艦年——我的意思是,我們已把指引上調了20億美元。但同樣是一次性的因素。到了2027年也不會差太多,因為當你考慮到基本上新增了將近500萬噸的產能時——再加上今年約100萬噸因為投產調試與時點因素,從損益表中被拿掉,並且以每噸10美元賣出。

  • So next year is going to be not too far off from what we're achieving right now in '26. And with basically, Train 7 at the been FID in the coming months, we're basically locking in $9 billion of EBITDA run rate at a fraction. And that's probably an understatement, but a fraction of the margins you see on the curves today. So not one-off and yeah, we're looking forward to ending a great year in '26 and having a really strong year in '27.

    所以明年的表現將不會比我們現在在2026年所達成的水準差太多。而且隨著第7列(Train 7)在未來幾個月內做出FID,我們基本上是在以當前曲線所顯示利差的一小部分——而且這可能還是低估——來鎖定90億美元的EBITDA運行率。所以這不是一次性,對,我們期待在2026年結束一個很棒的年度,並在2027年有非常強勁的一年。

  • Doug Irwin - Analyst

    Doug Irwin - Analyst

  • Got it. That's great to hear. Maybe just as a follow-up, just curious where you are in the EPC process for the Corpus expansion. When you might be needing to lock in of contracts there? And if there's any early indication on what pricing might look like relative to the Sabine expansion?

    了解。很高興聽到。也許追問一下,我想了解你們在Corpus擴建案的EPC流程目前進展到哪裡。你們大概什麼時候需要在那邊鎖定合約?以及相較於Sabine擴建案,對於價格水準是否有任何早期跡象?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, so Doug, this is Jack. We're in the process of what I call value engineering, which is we work really closely with Bechtel and with our process engineers and our staff to make sure that we're getting the best price possible.

    好的,Doug,我是Jack。我們正在進行我所稱的價值工程(value engineering),也就是我們與Bechtel、我們的製程工程師以及團隊非常密切合作,以確保我們拿到可能的最佳價格。

  • So that's -- it's a little bit longer process for us, but has ends up in creating significant value like you're going to see when we FID Sabine Pass Train 7. And since the Corpus expansion is almost a duplicate of Train 7, we're fully engaged to make that happen.

    所以——對我們來說這個流程會稍微久一點,但最終會創造顯著價值,就像你們在我們對Sabine Pass第7列做FID時將會看到的那樣。而且由於Corpus擴建幾乎是第7列的複製版,我們已全力投入來促成這件事。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'll just add a few more things on the Corpus expansion. Clearly, over the last couple of months, signing almost 5 million tons, it's a different ballgame commercially for long-term contracts to underpin not just the first phase of Sabine but the first phase of growth at Corpus.

    我再補充幾點關於Corpus擴建。很明顯,在過去幾個月簽下將近500萬噸之後,從商業面來看,長約的局面已經不同了;這些長約不僅能支撐Sabine第一階段,也能支撐Corpus的第一階段成長。

  • We probably have an extra 5 million-plus tons of contracts that we won't need to fully contract Sabine 7. So that's in good shape. But if you just look at the FID we did for Midscale 8 & 9 and most of you understand what the first phase is going to look like for first Sabine 7, which is going to be over 6 million tons.

    我們可能還有額外500萬噸以上的合約量,即使不需要把Sabine 7完全簽滿也用不到。所以這部分狀況很好。但如果你看我們對Midscale 8與9所做的FID,而且你們大多數人也了解第一階段、也就是先做Sabine 7的樣貌,將會超過600萬噸。

  • We're minimizing the amount of infrastructure that needs to be built by utilizing the brownfield advantages we have with tank births and pipelines already in place and foundation work. We're adding debottlenecking equipment that can get more out of not just the incremental train but all of the trains existing at the sites. And we plan to do the same thing at Stage 4 Phase 1 at Corpus.

    我們會利用既有棕地(brownfield)優勢,把需要新建的基礎設施量降到最低,例如既有的儲槽泊位與管線,以及基礎工程。我們會新增去瓶頸(debottlenecking)設備,不僅讓新增列車的產出提高,也讓場站內所有既有列車的產出提升。而我們也計畫在Corpus第4期第1階段做同樣的事。

  • We have to pull out all the stops just to hold to the Cheniere standard, hold to that 7 times CapEx to EBITDA, hold to unlevered contracted returns of 10% for these projects. We're basically the only ones in the industry building under $1,000 a ton.

    我們必須全力以赴,才能維持Cheniere的標準:維持資本支出(CapEx)對EBITDA約7倍的水準,並維持這些專案在不加槓桿下、以合約支撐的報酬率達到10%。基本上,我們是業界唯一能以每噸低於1,000美元成本在建造的人。

  • So that's the goal. And Bechtel is clearly aware of that as well. And we look forward to working on that as the permits come in through the year in '27. We have a good sense that we should be in a position by the end of '27 to have a fully permitted project there.

    所以這就是目標。Bechtel顯然也很清楚這一點。隨著許可在2027年陸續到位,我們也期待在這一年持續推進合作。我們相當有把握,到2027年底我們應該能讓該專案取得完整許可。

  • Doug Irwin - Analyst

    Doug Irwin - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks for the time.

    了解。謝謝你撥時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolf Research.

    Wolf Research的Keith Stanley。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. So the company has previously laid out a $30 a share run rate DCF figure, including the two brownfield expansions. Can you talk to how that's maybe evolved a little bit given billions of dollars of incremental cash flow now this year and likely next year? I would think your share count is probably projected to be quite a bit lower than what you've previously laid out?

    嗨,早安。公司先前曾提出每股30美元的DCF運行率數字,包含兩個棕地擴建案。能否談談,鑑於今年以及可能明年新增了數十億美元的增量現金流,這個數字可能如何有所演變?我想你們的股數(share count)預估應該會比先前提出的低不少?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, we'll get to that. Let us FID Train 7 at Sabine in, let's say, in the coming months, and we'll owe you all a new run rate with just Train 7 and that debottlenecking at Sabine and then give you a sense of where we stand on the first phase of Corpus as the incremental step-up of run rate EBITDA over time.

    是的,我們會談到這個。讓我們先在接下來幾個月內,假設完成Sabine第7列的FID,之後我們會需要給各位一個新的運行率,包含第7列以及Sabine的去瓶頸,並讓你們了解Corpus第一階段的進展,也就是運行率EBITDA隨時間增加的增量階梯。

  • But with that said, we upsized the buyback in February to over $10 billion when margins for this year were $5 for the rest of the year. Margins for next year were under $4 and margins after that, we're under $3, since then, we've increased guidance by $2 billion. Just mentioned, we locked in like $3 billion-plus just in the last couple of months for the rest of this decade.

    不過話說回來,我們在2月把回購規模上調到超過100億美元,當時今年剩餘期間的利差是每噸5美元。明年的利差不到4美元,而再之後的利差不到3美元;但自那之後,我們已把指引上調了20億美元。剛才也提到,我們在過去幾個月內,僅就本十年剩餘期間就鎖定了大約30億美元以上。

  • So there's a bit more than originally forecasted when we said there was over $25 billion of capital to deploy. And at the same time, the CapEx to build out at both sites to get to 75 million tons is still going to be around [third] of our DCF per year. So, if anything, we'll deploy the buyback a bit quicker than through '30 and have to upsize that? And yeah, maybe have a new goal for share count in the run rate.

    所以相較於我們先前提到可部署資本超過250億美元時的原始預測,現在可部署的資本更多了一些。同時,為了在兩個場站擴建到7,500萬噸的資本支出,仍大約會是我們每年DCF的三分之一左右。所以如果有什麼不同的話,就是我們可能會比原先規劃的到2030年更快地執行回購,並且可能需要再上調回購規模?而且,是的,運行率目標中的股數也許會有新的目標。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks for that. The second thing, Zach, if you have any more details of the guidance raises really large, and I get the spreads are where they are and you can squeeze out a few cargoes on timing and the like? But anything else you'd point to on optimization? Or is it as simple as just squeezing out a few more cargoes. And like you said, it's $100 million of cargo?

    這很有幫助。謝謝。第二點,Zach,如果你能再多提供一些細節:這次上調指引的幅度非常大,我理解價差(spreads)就在那個水準,而且你們也可以透過時點等因素多擠出幾船貨。但在最佳化(optimization)方面,還有其他你會指出的因素嗎?還是就只是單純多擠出幾船?而且如你所說,每一船大概是1億美元?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It's a little of everything, but we're still somewhat like makes sometimes how people try to estimate our quarterly guidance. But then -- so somehow we missed that by, let's say, $100 million, and then we crush everyone on full year guidance. And there was only two quarters left in the year.

    有點什麼因素都有,但我們仍然有點像是,有時候人們會試著去估算我們的季度指引。但接著——我們不知怎地就差了,比方說,1億美元,然後我們在全年指引上又大幅領先所有人。而且當時一年只剩下兩個季度。

  • So we've been very clear that we produce a lot more in the winter months, the winter quarters of the year. So I'd say to date, like for the first three quarters, we probably produced about 13 million tons a quarter. We're going to produce over 14 million tons in the forecast to meet the guidance range in Q4.

    所以我們一直都很清楚地說,我們在冬季月份、也就是一年中的冬季季度,產量會高很多。所以我會說截至目前,像是前三個季度,我們大概每季生產約1,300萬噸。為了在第四季達到指引區間,我們在預測中將生產超過1,400萬噸。

  • But there's other things that just are not transparent until we show you the results, like a good portion of our open capacity was in Q4, not over the summer months of this year, but people could also see that netbacks went over $15 went over $20 later in the quarter in Q3. And a lot of that, that was lifted is being delivered into Q4 as well.

    但還有一些事情,在我們把結果呈現給你們之前其實並不透明,例如我們相當一部分的未售產能是在第四季,而不是今年夏季的月份;但大家也能看到,第三季後段每單位淨回收(netbacks)超過15美元、甚至超過20美元。而其中很多已經被提走的量,也會在第四季交付。

  • But if I had to break it out, let's say we had about 0.5 million tons open as of the last call, prices are up $10 from like $10 to $20 or so. So that's $250 million. Three cargoes, give or take, that are moving from, let's say, early January to late December now that they're locked and sold was another $250 million.

    但如果要我拆開來看,假設我們在上次電話會議時大約有50萬噸尚未鎖定,價格上漲了10美元,從大概10美元到20美元左右。那就是2.5億美元。另外,約三船貨(多寡略有差異),從原本大概1月初移到現在12月底,因為已鎖定並售出,又是2.5億美元。

  • Optimization that you mentioned was another $150 million, which is unique to an extent, considering how -- it's just elevated pricing in very volatile environment. But at the same time, it was split [50-50] upstream and downstream. We're going to generate about $700 million-plus of optimization this year, across the platform. And we usually don't guide to that, and I probably won't guide to much of that in early February.

    你提到的最佳化(optimization)另外是1.5億美元,某種程度上這是獨特的,考量到——這只是非常波動環境下的高檔價格。但同時,它在上游與下游之間是[50-50]分攤。今年我們在整個平台上將產生超過7億美元的最佳化收益。而我們通常不會對此提供指引,我在2月初大概也不會對其中太多部分給出指引。

  • With that said, for the last few years, it's been about $0.5 billion, give or take, each and every year. And then on top of that, Train 7 at Stage 3 was a bit early. So a few weeks there gave us an extra cargo and like you said, that's $100 million. So you add a few of those things up. And yeah, we get to the $9 billion midpoint.

    話雖如此,過去幾年每一年大概都是5億美元左右(上下浮動)。此外,第三期(Stage 3)的7號列車(Train 7)進度稍微提前。所以提前了幾週讓我們多出一船貨,正如你說的,那就是1億美元。所以把這幾項加總起來。對,我們就到達90億美元中位數。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We always say, Keith, we're firing on all cylinders.

    我們總是說,Keith,我們是全速運轉、火力全開。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Appreciate all the detail.

    非常感謝。很感謝你提供這麼多細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JP Morgan.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通(JP Morgan)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Jeremy.

    早安,Jeremy。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Just wanted to look out at the contracting front -- you guys have picked up some nice momentum there. I definitely did not have Qatar on our radar there. So well done.

    我想先看一下簽約進展——你們在那方面的動能很不錯。我確實沒有把卡達列入我們的觀察名單。所以做得很好。

  • Just wanted to see -- as we think about the geopolitical developments in the world today and how that's changed things, you talked about these new customers to Cheniere. Do you see the opportunity for more new customers to Cheniere like this? Are there new conversations with customers? Or can you just give us any more color, I guess, on that front in general?

    我想了解的是——當我們思考當今世界的地緣政治發展以及它如何改變局勢時,你提到這些對Cheniere而言的新客戶。你是否看到像這樣更多新客戶的機會?是否有與客戶展開新的對話?或者你能否就整體而言,在這方面再多提供一些說明?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Sure. Jeremy, it's Anatol. Thanks for the question. I agree with you. We didn't have QE on our bigger card in February or even in May of this year. And through the middle of the year, our position was that the LNG buyers in the world expect QE to be back ratably and reliably. That really only changed, I have to admit around Q3, maybe at the end of the failed ceasefire. And obviously, we've touched on what QE's new strategy looks like and what Cheniere and US LNG, what role we play.

    當然。Jeremy,我是Anatol。謝謝你的問題。我同意你的看法。我們在今年2月、甚至5月時,都沒有把QE放在我們更大的牌面上。而在年中之前,我們的立場是:全球的LNG買家預期QE會按比例、且可靠地回歸。我必須承認,這真正的改變大概是在第三季左右,可能是在停火失敗的尾聲。而且顯然,我們也談到了QE的新策略長什麼樣,以及Cheniere與美國LNG在其中扮演的角色。

  • I think what you've seen from us should put to bed discussions of long-term contracting being under pressure, discussions of how long this is the durability of this business, demonstrating clearly that [50s] are a comfortable place to land long-term contracts. And we think that will continue to evolve. And the crystal ball today is you'll continue to see all of the above.

    我認為你們從我們這裡看到的,應該可以終結關於長期簽約承壓的討論、以及關於這門生意耐久性有多長的討論;我們清楚地展示了,[50多](美元)的價格水準是長期合約一個舒適的落點。而我們認為這將持續演進。而今天的水晶球顯示,你會持續看到上述各種情況都會發生。

  • You'll continue to see producer deals from us. You'll continue to see Asia. Our reputation, as Jack already touched on, and as you know well, is sterling in the industry and the QE support and endorsement that doesn't hurt that.

    你會持續看到我們做生產商交易。你會持續看到亞洲。我們的聲譽——如Jack剛才提到、你也很清楚——在產業裡是無可挑剔的,而QE的支持與背書也不會傷害這點。

  • So we think we'll continue to do repeat business and you'll see, we think some interesting stuff from us over the next couple of quarters. And given the current portfolio of now coming up on 40 long-term counterparties, I do think it will be weighted to repeat customers, but you'll continue to see really all of the above and that's what's going to allow us to continue to perform to our standard economically.

    所以我們認為我們會持續做重複性業務,而你也會看到,我們在接下來幾個季度會有一些有意思的動作。而鑑於目前的投資組合、長期交易對手方即將接近40家,我確實認為會更偏向既有客戶的重複合作,但你仍會看到上述各種情況都會出現,而這也將使我們能在經濟表現上持續達到我們的標準。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. We look forward to the exciting things to come there. Maybe if you could pivot towards the permitting side. I was just wondering if you had expectations, I guess, for permitting reform to make its way through, just given everything that's happening in DC and as it relates to Cheniere specifically.

    了解。這很有幫助。我們也期待接下來令人興奮的進展。或許可以轉到許可(permitting)這一塊。我想請教,你們是否對許可改革能否推進有一些預期,考量到華府(DC)正在發生的一切,以及這對Cheniere的具體影響。

  • If you could just remind us, I guess, what the strategy is? How much is under development right now for incremental capacity and thoughts on if it could be more down the line?

    也請你提醒我們一下策略是什麼?目前為了增加產能,有多少正在開發中?以及未來是否可能再增加的想法?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. Jeremy, this is Jack. And as you know, when we filed for our permits for both Sabine and Corpus Christi, there were over 20 million tons at each site to bring us to a little over 100 million-ton platform in total. So what Zach and I have kind of have talked to all of you about is making sure you understand that our execution strategy is to do one large train at each facility and then some additional debottlenecking at each facility first.

    不。Jeremy,我是Jack。你也知道,當我們為Sabine與Corpus Christi兩個基地申請許可時,每個基地都有超過2,000萬噸的規劃,讓我們整體平台總量提升到略高於1億噸。所以Zach和我一直跟各位談的是,確保你們理解我們的執行策略:先在每個設施各做一座大型液化列車(train),然後先在各設施做一些額外的去瓶頸(debottlenecking)。

  • We're trying to maximize our brownfield advantages without having to build another tank or berth. But our permits should be well in hand before either permitting reform or some of the new FERC processes that they're proposing like a blanket authorization actually become effective.

    我們希望在不必再建一座儲槽或碼頭泊位(berth)的情況下,把既有場址(brownfield)的優勢最大化。但在許可改革、或他們正在提議的一些新的FERC流程(例如概括授權 blanket authorization)真正生效之前,我們的許可應該就會到手。

  • So I would expect to have Sabine's permits in hand before the end of this year. And Corpus is middle to the third quarter of next year. So well before any of these other initiatives become effective.

    所以我預期在今年年底前就能拿到Sabine的許可。而Corpus大概是在明年第二季中段到第三季。因此會遠早於這些其他倡議生效之前。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

    了解。這很有幫助。我就先到這裡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank.

    Brandon Bingham,加拿大豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions here. I appreciate all the commentary on the global macro side of things, particularly around the European outlook. It seems like they might be walking a little bit of a tight rope there into winter.

    嗨,早安。感謝讓我在這裡提問。我很感謝各位就全球總體面(macro)所做的所有評論,特別是關於歐洲前景的部分。看起來他們在入冬前可能正走在一條有點緊繃的鋼索上。

  • So just curious what opportunity set could that create for you guys? Should there be just a normal winter or any other European disruption? Do you think it would maybe for some long-term contracting pickup for sure of supply? Or would this be maybe more an opportunity on the optimization side of things? Just kind of how that might unfold?

    所以我想請教,這可能會為你們創造出什麼樣的機會集合(opportunity set)?如果只是正常的冬季,或歐洲出現任何其他干擾?你們認為這可能會帶動一些長期合約的承購增加,以確保供應嗎?或者這可能更像是在最佳化(optimization)方面的機會?想請你們談談這可能會如何發展?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Brandon. It's Anatol. Really all of the above. Europe continues to come up with ways to make its life more challenging and how we navigate that in supporting our existing European customers, which are which are to date, still the plurality of our counterparties. And how we engage with them going forward and support them long term as those initial commitments start to get to the point where we're discussing additional business with them in the future.

    謝謝你,Brandon。我是Anatol。基本上以上皆是。歐洲持續想出各種方式讓自己的處境更具挑戰;而我們如何在支持既有歐洲客戶(截至目前仍占我們交易對手的最大比重)時因應這些情況,以及未來我們如何與他們合作並長期支持他們——當那些初始承諾逐步走到我們開始討論未來追加業務的階段。

  • Are all things that are aided by everything that we've discussed one of the relief valves that we have seen and one of the reasons you touched on this as well, we've touched on it a couple of times during this discussion. One of the reasons that cargoes came into this year that Zach mentioned is because the [ARC] opened to Europe, and Europe has been attracting more cargoes over the last couple of months in realization of the challenges that it may have.

    這些都會受益於我們所討論的一切;其中一個我們看到的「洩壓閥」(relief valve),也是你提到、我們在這次討論中也提過幾次的原因之一。Zach提到今年貨物(cargoes)會進來的原因之一,是因為[ARC]對歐洲開放;而歐洲在過去幾個月吸引了更多貨物,因為它意識到自己可能面臨的挑戰。

  • So really, all of the above, that volatility creates some opportunities for additional optimization. It gives us a chance to monetize some of the optionality we have in our IPM contracts and fundamentally will continue to be a tailwind for the long-term commitments as it figures out how to navigate this new world with less Russian supply pipeline and LNG, while still a fairly robust need for gas that as we already discussed, proved resilient even in this high price environment.

    所以確實是以上皆是;那樣的波動性會帶來一些額外最佳化的機會。也讓我們有機會將我們在IPM合約中的部分選擇權(optionality)變現。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And then maybe turning to the supply side of things, your feed gas supply, there's a lot of debate back and forth right now around Permian versus Haynesville for the wave of US Gulf Coast capacity coming online.

    好的。很棒。這真的很有幫助。接著也許轉到供應端,你們的進料氣(feed gas)供應,目前市場上對於美國墨西哥灣沿岸新增產能上線後,究竟由Permian還是Haynesville來供氣,有很多來回的爭論。

  • You guys have already mitigated some of that. But thinking more towards all the other projects set to ramp up here and to what extent they might have foreseeing some of these issues around the Permian side of things? Or just where do you guys see those basins feeding into it? And what issues could that maybe bring up that would push out some of the supply ramp out into the right?

    你們已經在某種程度上緩解了其中一些問題。但若更進一步思考其他即將爬坡(ramp up)的專案——在多大程度上,他們可能已預見Permian端的這些問題?或者你們怎麼看這些盆地(basins)對其供氣的分工?又有哪些問題可能會浮現,導致供應爬坡時程往右延後?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Brandon, we've been at it for 10 years. So we've seen it all. And as you know, we draw from all five basins and all the way up from Canada. So there's a huge variability in the natural gas spec between each of the different basins.

    Brandon,我們做這件事已經10年了。所以我們什麼都見過。而且如你所知,我們從五個盆地取氣,甚至一路從加拿大供氣。因此,各個不同盆地之間的天然氣規格(spec)差異非常大。

  • And I don't know enough technically about what they're building or what they're trying to do? But I can tell you, I'm pleased that we've figured it out so far, and we're able to manage around it reliably. But in a whole host of different natural gas quality specs. So it's challenging at least.

    我在技術層面上不夠了解他們正在建什麼或想做什麼。但我可以告訴你,我很高興我們到目前為止已經把它搞定,而且能夠可靠地管理這些差異。面對各式各樣不同的天然氣品質規格。所以至少可以說,這是有挑戰的。

  • Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Equity Analyst

  • Fair enough.

    了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    Jean Ann Salisbury,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Hi. Just a quick one for Anatol. Wanting to go back to the supply-demand outlook. Do you view the lower demand from China this year is all due to price elasticity. Have you changed your outlook structurally for what China's demand for LNG is at various JKM prices?

    嗨。我有個很快的問題想問Anatol。想回到供需展望。你是否認為今年中國需求較低完全是因為價格彈性(price elasticity)?對於在不同JKM價格下中國LNG需求的結構性展望,你有做出調整嗎?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes and no. It is an incredibly capable system that is very well contracted on a long-term basis, like talk about the poster child that's lifting 6s and delivering to Europe 30s, right? A few -- as a system, a few areas capable as China. And as we've discussed, the quantum of infrastructure, the quantum of underutilized industrial and power assets that could be dispatched at lower prices when those economics are more attractive.

    是,也不是。那是一個能力非常強的系統,而且長期合約簽得非常完整——可以說是典型案例:以6的價格提貨,然後以30的價格交付到歐洲,對吧?作為一個系統,能做到像中國這樣的,屈指可數。而且如我們所討論的,基礎設施的量體、以及那些在價格較低、經濟性更具吸引力時可以調度的未充分利用的工業與電力資產的量體。

  • We still think will lift China's overall LNG imports into the 130 million, 140 million-ton range from the [60-ish] till print this year, we think it's high. Three years ago, it was 83 million tons, and its Regas capacity has doubled since that era.

    我們仍然認為,這會把中國整體LNG進口量從今年約[60多](以實際數據為準)拉升到1.3億到1.4億噸的區間;我們認為這是偏高的。三年前是8,300萬噸,而自那個時期以來,它的再氣化(Regas)能力已經翻倍。

  • So yeah, price elastic, incredibly capable and going into this year, we thought we would see that from China. But as you well know and as we've already discussed, we're looking at a year that was supposed to have $5 margins, not $27 margins.

    所以是的,價格彈性很強、能力也非常強;而在今年開始前,我們就認為會看到中國出現這種情況。但如你非常清楚、也如我們已經討論過的,我們面對的是原本應該是5美元利差(margins)的一年,而不是27美元利差的一年。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Anatol. I will leave there.

    很好。謝謝你,Anatol。我就先到這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, I'll turn the call back to the speakers for any additional or closing comments.

    此時,我將把電話交回給發言人,請他們做任何補充或結語。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • This is Jack. I just want to thank all of you for your interest in Cheniere and your support. Be safe.

    我是Jack。我只想感謝各位對Cheniere的關注與支持。請注意安全。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。