Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the second-quarter 2026 Cheniere Energy earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 Cheniere Energy 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議將進行錄音。

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead, sir.

    此刻,我想將會議交給 Randy Bhatia 先生。先生,請開始。

  • Randy Bhatia - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Randy Bhatia - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com.

    謝謝,接線員。各位早安,歡迎參加 Cheniere 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的簡報投影片與網路直播連結可於 cheniere.com 取得。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,我們的發言(包括對各位提問的回答)可能包含前瞻性陳述,而實際結果可能與這些陳述所描述者有重大差異。

  • Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the presentation appendix. The call agenda is shown on slide 3. After prepared remarks from Jack, Anatol and Zach, we will open the call for Q&A.

    我們簡報的第 2 頁包含對這些前瞻性陳述及相關風險的討論。此外,非 GAAP 指標與最可比 GAAP 指標之調節表可在簡報附錄中找到。會議議程列於第 3 頁投影片。在 Jack、Anatol 與 Zach 的準備發言後,我們將開放問答。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's Chairman, President and CEO.

    現在我把電話會議交給 Cheniere 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our results from the second quarter of 2026 and our further improved outlook for the full year.

    謝謝你,Randy。各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們,一同回顧 2026 年第二季的業績,以及我們對全年進一步改善的展望。

  • The LNG market in the second quarter continued to be defined by elevated volatility driven by the war in Iran and the resulting significant constraint on global LNG supply with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This market disruption is significant, not just for LNG, but for many other commodities and products that benefit the world, which transit the Strait en route to their respective end markets.

    第二季的 LNG 市場仍以高波動為特徵,主要受伊朗戰爭影響,以及荷莫茲海峽實質關閉所導致的全球 LNG 供應顯著受限所驅動。這次市場中斷不僅對 LNG 影響重大,對許多其他商品與產品亦然;這些商品與產品在運往各自終端市場的途中,都需經由該海峽,並為全球帶來效益。

  • We are hopeful for a timely and peaceful resolution and continue to pray for the safety of those in harm's way. Without a doubt, this supply disruption has brought to sharp focus the necessity of energy security and diversity of supply amongst LNG buyers.

    我們期盼能及時且和平地解決,並持續為身處險境的人們的安全祈禱。毫無疑問,這次供應中斷使 LNG 買方對能源安全與供應多元化的必要性有了更深刻的體認。

  • While in the immediate terms, buyers have been active in sourcing replacement LNG volumes, procuring alternative fuel sources and implementing demand-side management initiatives, long-term security of supply and building a durable, reliable portfolio have been reinforced as a critical strategic priority, and our reputation as a customer-focused, safe and reliable operator only further distinguish us from competitors.

    雖然短期內,買方積極尋找替代 LNG 供應量、採購替代燃料來源並推動需求端管理措施,但長期供應安全與建立具韌性、可靠的投資組合已被再次強化為關鍵策略優先事項;而我們以客戶為中心、安全且可靠的營運商聲譽,也進一步使我們在競爭者中脫穎而出。

  • On my recent trips to Washington, I've met with Energy Secretary Wright, National Energy Dominance Council Chair Burgum, and FERC Chairman Swett, among others. Our dialogue with Washington is extremely constructive, which is especially important amidst this volatile commodity market backdrop. We appreciate this administration's broad support for the US LNG industry and its growth.

    在我近期前往華盛頓的行程中,我會見了能源部長 Wright、國家能源主導委員會主席 Burgum,以及 FERC 主席 Swett 等人士。我們與華盛頓的對話極具建設性,這在商品市場高度波動的背景下尤其重要。我們感謝本屆政府對美國 LNG 產業及其成長的廣泛支持。

  • Our regulators and policymakers seek and value input from industry leaders like Cheniere, and they are focused on supporting energy infrastructure projects like ours with a robust yet transparent regulatory and oversight regime so that the US can continue to meaningfully contribute to the energy security priorities of customers and countries around the world.

    我們的監管機關與政策制定者尋求並重視來自 Cheniere 等產業領導者的意見;他們也致力於以健全且透明的監管與監督制度,支持像我們這樣的能源基礎建設專案,使美國能持續對全球客戶與各國的能源安全優先事項做出實質貢獻。

  • I encourage you all to read the recently published LNG impact study led by Dan Yergin at S&P Global, which highlights the vast benefits and advantages of US LNG, both at home and for our allies abroad. To think that the first LNG cargo from the Lower 48 was exported just 10 years ago from our Sabine Pass facility, and now US LNG is on track to be the second highest value export product from our country and $1 trillion contribution to our economy is an incredible story, and we at Cheniere are proud to be at the forefront of this industry.

    我鼓勵各位閱讀近期由 S&P Global 的 Dan Yergin 主導發布的 LNG 影響研究,該研究強調美國 LNG 在國內以及對海外盟友所帶來的巨大效益與優勢。回想美國本土 48 州的第一批 LNG 貨物僅在 10 年前才從我們的 Sabine Pass 設施出口;如今,美國 LNG 正朝成為我國第二高價值出口產品邁進,並為經濟貢獻 1 兆美元,這是一個令人驚嘆的故事,而我們 Cheniere 很自豪能站在這個產業的最前線。

  • Please turn to slide 5, where I'll highlight our key results and accomplishments for the second quarter of 2026, and introduce our second upwardly revised guidance ranges for the full year. I'm pleased to report that our excellent performance in the first quarter across all facets of our business continued through the second quarter. We generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.8 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of over $3 billion.

    請翻到第 5 頁投影片,我將重點說明 2026 年第二季的主要成果與成就,並介紹我們對全年第二次上調後的財測區間。我很高興報告,我們在第一季於各業務面向的優異表現,在第二季持續延續。我們的合併調整後 EBITDA 約為 18 億美元,可分配現金流(DCF)約為 12 億美元,淨利超過 30 億美元。

  • On the production side, we produced and exported 184 cargoes or 672 TBtu, a 20% increase over the same period last year. Our production and operations continue to outperform our forecast in the second quarter, thanks to the completion and accelerated start-up of additional trains at Stage 3 and enhanced operational reliability during the quarter.

    在產量方面,我們生產並出口了 184 船貨物(cargoes),合計 672 TBtu,較去年同期增加 20%。由於 Stage 3 額外列車(trains)的完工與加速啟動,以及本季營運可靠度提升,我們第二季的產量與營運表現持續優於預測。

  • Today, we are further increasing our full year 2026 financial guidance to $7.9 billion to $8.4 billion of consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion of DCF. This is the second quarter in a row we are upwardly revising guidance. And this quarter, the new low end of the guidance is above the previous high end for both EBITDA and DCF.

    今天,我們進一步上調 2026 年全年財務指引:合併調整後 EBITDA 為 79 億至 84 億美元,DCF 為 53 億至 58 億美元。這是我們連續第二季上調指引。而在本季,新指引的下緣已高於先前 EBITDA 與 DCF 指引的上緣。

  • The primary drivers of the increase are further improvement in our production forecast of approximately 0.5 million tonnes at the midpoint, thanks to improved reliability, realized outperformance and acceleration of new Stage 3 trains, sustained higher marketing margins, both achieved and forecasted for the remainder of the year and contributions from the optimization activities achieved year to date, both upstream and downstream of our facilities.

    本次上調的主要驅動因素包括:在可靠度改善、實際表現優於預期以及 Stage 3 新列車加速推進的帶動下,我們將產量預測在中位數上再提高約 50 萬噸;行銷利差維持較高水準(包含已實現以及對今年剩餘期間的預估);以及截至目前為止在我們設施上游與下游所達成的最佳化活動貢獻。

  • Zach will cover guidance in more detail in a few minutes. But we look forward to delivering financial results within these further upwardly revised ranges for the year. During the second quarter, we continued to execute on our comprehensive capital allocation plan. We were able to repurchase another approximately 2.2 million shares for $550 million, as sustained elevated volatility in our shares presented opportunities for our repurchase plan to be active over the quarter.

    Zach 將在幾分鐘後更詳細說明指引。不過,我們期待在今年於這些再次上調的區間內交出財務成果。第二季期間,我們持續執行全面的資本配置計畫。由於股價波動持續偏高,為我們的庫藏股計畫在本季提供了進場機會,我們得以再回購約 220 萬股,金額為 5.5 億美元。

  • We funded approximately $1.1 billion of growth CapEx with equity and debt and declared a dividend of $0.555. We continue to make excellent and safe progress on our growth and expansions during the second quarter. Our CCL Stage 3 project is now over 98% complete. Substantial completion of Train 6 was achieved in June and commissioning on Train 7 has commenced with first LNG expected imminently.

    我們以股權與債務資金支應約 11 億美元的成長資本支出(growth CapEx),並宣告每股股利 0.555 美元。第二季期間,我們在成長與擴建方面持續取得卓越且安全的進展。我們的 CCL Stage 3 專案目前已完成超過 98%。6 月已達成第 6 列車(Train 6)的實質完工(substantial completion),第 7 列車(Train 7)已開始試運轉(commissioning),預計首批 LNG 將於近期產出。

  • We continue to expect Train 7 substantial completion in the coming months, well ahead of the guaranteed date in 2027, which will officially complete Corpus Christi Stage 3 and further reinforces Cheniere's execution track record for bringing LNG capacity online ahead of schedule and on budget.

    我們仍預期第 7 列車將在未來幾個月內達成實質完工,遠早於 2027 年的保證日期;這將正式完成 Corpus Christi Stage 3,並進一步強化 Cheniere 在按期提前、按預算將 LNG 產能上線的執行實績。

  • On our mid-scale Trains 8, 9 and debottlenecking project, we have now safely progressed over 48% complete and continue to track ahead of the schedule across critical work streams. Piling has recently been completed, underground piping and steel installation is progressing well and key materials and equipment packages, including the Train 8 cold box are arriving at site on or ahead of schedule as we move further into the construction phase of execution.

    在我們的中型規模第 8、9 列車(Trains 8、9)及去瓶頸(debottlenecking)專案方面,我們目前已在安全前提下推進至超過 48% 完工,且在關鍵工作流程上持續領先進度。近期已完成打樁(piling),地下管線與鋼構安裝進展良好;隨著我們進一步進入施工執行階段,包含第 8 列車冷箱(cold box)在內的關鍵材料與設備套件正按期或提前運抵現場。

  • Turn now to slide 6, where I'll provide some detail on our next growth project, Phase 1 of the Sabine Pass expansion project. During the second quarter, we took another critical step towards our final investment decision on this expansion when we signed a lump sum turnkey engineering procurement construction contract with Bechtel Energy.

    現在請看第 6 張投影片,我將提供我們下一個成長專案——Sabine Pass 擴建專案第一期(Phase 1)——的更多細節。在第二季,我們在此擴建案的最終投資決策(FID)上又邁出關鍵一步,與 Bechtel Energy 簽署了一份總價交鑰匙(LSTK)的工程、採購與施工(EPC)合約。

  • We look forward to continuing our multi-decade relationship with Bechtel as we execute this project. Bechtel has commenced early engineering and critical equipment procurement under a limited notice to proceed, further locking in the project's cost and derisking the time line.

    我們期待在執行此專案的過程中,延續與 Bechtel 長達數十年的合作關係。Bechtel 已在有限開工通知(limited notice to proceed)下啟動前期工程與關鍵設備採購,進一步鎖定專案成本並降低時程風險。

  • The EPC contract with Bechtel is approximately $4.7 billion and its scope covers one large-scale train at Sabine Pass, Train 7, a boil-off gas reliquefaction unit and related infrastructure and tie-ins to the existing facility. Baker Hughes will once again supply the gas turbines and compressors.

    與 Bechtel 的 EPC 合約金額約為 47 億美元,其範疇涵蓋 Sabine Pass 的一列大型液化列車(train)——第 7 列(Train 7)、一套蒸發氣(boil-off gas)再液化裝置,以及相關基礎設施並與既有設施的連接工程。Baker Hughes 將再次供應燃氣渦輪與壓縮機。

  • As we have described, Phase 1 is a very brownfield project, efficiently leveraging the site in-place infrastructure and equipment at Sabine Pass to significantly reduce cost and enhance returns. The project does not require support infrastructure, such as additional marine berths, LNG storage tanks or a significant investment in additional natural gas pipelines.

    如我們先前所述,第一期是一個高度棕地(brownfield)專案,可有效運用 Sabine Pass 現場既有的基礎設施與設備,以大幅降低成本並提升報酬。該專案不需要配套支援設施,例如新增碼頭泊位、LNG 儲槽,或對額外天然氣管線進行大規模投資。

  • Train 7 is a replica of the first 6 trains at Sabine Pass with a design capacity of approximately 5 million tonnes per annum. The contract also includes the addition of a boil-off gas or BOG reliquefaction unit to debottleneck the large trains and will add approximately 1 million tonnes per annum of capacity across Sabine Pass.

    第 7 列(Train 7)為 Sabine Pass 前 6 列的複製版本,設計產能約為每年 500 萬噸。合約亦包含新增一套蒸發氣(BOG)再液化裝置,以消除大型列車的瓶頸,並將使 Sabine Pass 全站合計新增約每年 100 萬噸的產能。

  • In addition to the EPC contract with Bechtel as part of Phase 1, we also awarded Baker Hughes, a multiyear services contract covering fleet-wide gas turbine upgrades across all of Sabine Pass in order to enhance power output and further increase LNG production across the facility. In total, Phase 1 is expected to add over 6 million tonnes per annum of production capacity to our platform or a total growth of approximately 10%.

    除第一期與 Bechtel 的 EPC 合約外,我們也授予 Baker Hughes 一份多年期服務合約,涵蓋 Sabine Pass 全站機組的燃氣渦輪升級,以提升輸出功率並進一步增加全廠 LNG 產量。整體而言,第一期預計將為我們的平台新增每年超過 600 萬噸的產能,約相當於總成長約 10%。

  • We've been working hard developing the SPL expansion project, and it's both exciting and rewarding to see the pieces come together. And our disciplined, highly contracted brownfield and returns-focused approach to project development pay off.

    我們一直努力推進 SPL 擴建專案,看到各項要素逐步到位,既令人振奮也很有成就感。而我們在專案開發上秉持紀律、以高合約覆蓋的棕地模式並聚焦報酬的做法,也正在展現成果。

  • With the regulatory approvals expected later this year and the financing process already underway, we now have excellent line of sight in an FID on a significant accretive brownfield growth project that meets or exceeds our capital investment parameters, enabling us to continue to deliver the through-cycle risk-adjusted returns our stakeholders have become accustomed to.

    隨著監管核准預計於今年稍晚取得、融資流程也已啟動,我們如今對一項具顯著增益(accretive)的棕地成長專案之 FID 已有極佳能見度;該專案符合或優於我們的資本投資參數,使我們得以持續交付利害關係人所熟悉的、跨景氣循環的風險調整後報酬。

  • With over 40 million tonnes per annum in the permitting process to potentially grow our platform to over 100 million tonnes per annum, we have an exceptional opportunity today to support not just tomorrow's global energy balances, but the long-term growth and prosperity of the economies around the world, including ours at home here in the US. I'm proud of the critical role we play in the global energy market, and I'm excited for our future as a leading global infrastructure platform.

    目前有超過每年 4,000 萬噸的產能仍在許可申請流程中,具備將我們的平台擴大至每年超過 1 億噸的潛力;我們今天擁有絕佳機會,不僅支援明日的全球能源供需平衡,也能促進全球各地(包括我們美國本土)的長期經濟成長與繁榮。我為我們在全球能源市場中扮演的關鍵角色感到自豪,也對我們作為領先的全球基礎設施平台之未來充滿期待。

  • With that, I'll now hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.

    接下來我把時間交給 Anatol,請他談談 LNG 市場。再次感謝各位持續支持 Cheniere。

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. As Jack mentioned in his opening remarks, security of supply remains the defining theme for global gas and LNG markets throughout the second quarter.

    謝謝你,Jack,各位早安。請翻到第 8 張投影片。如 Jack 在開場致詞中提到的,供應安全在第二季仍是全球天然氣與 LNG 市場的核心主題。

  • Although the ceasefire announced in mid-June raised cautious optimism that tensions would ease and LNG flows would gradually normalize, recent developments suggest the outlook for sustained deescalation remains uncertain. Throughout much of the quarter, LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.

    儘管 6 月中旬宣布的停火一度帶來審慎的樂觀情緒,認為緊張局勢將緩和且 LNG 流量會逐步正常化,但近期發展顯示,持續降溫的前景仍不明朗。在本季大部分時間,經由荷姆茲海峽的 LNG 出口仍嚴重受限。

  • While the market has proven remarkably resilient, the disruption has reinforced just how dependent global gas and LNG markets remain on reliable sources of supply and how quickly geopolitical events can destabilize and tighten the market.

    儘管市場展現出顯著韌性,此次中斷仍再次凸顯全球天然氣與 LNG 市場對可靠供應來源的高度依賴,以及地緣政治事件能以多快速度擾動並收緊市場。

  • Let me walk through what we've observed during the quarter. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovered only gradually following the mid-June ceasefire. Both crude and LNG tanker movements improved from their lows, but remained materially below pre-conflict levels throughout quarter end.

    我來說明我們在本季觀察到的情況。在 6 月中旬停火後,經由荷姆茲海峽的油輪航行量僅逐步回升。原油與 LNG 油輪的航行量雖自低點改善,但截至季末仍明顯低於衝突前水準。

  • Outbound crude tanker transits recovered to approximately 25% of their pre-conflict average, while LNG tanker transit recovery was under 10%. That divergence reflects the greater operational complexity of restarting LNG supply chains.

    外運原油油輪的通行量回升至約為衝突前平均值的 25%,而 LNG 油輪的回升幅度則不到 10%。此一差異反映出重啟 LNG 供應鏈在營運上更為複雜。

  • Unlike crude exports, LNG production requires upstream gas supply, liquefaction facilities, marine logistics and vessel scheduling to all return to normal before exports can fully recover and long-distance cryogenic pipelines are simply not an option.

    不同於原油出口,LNG 生產需要上游天然氣供應、液化設施、海運物流與船期安排都恢復正常後,出口才能完全復甦;而長距離低溫(cryogenic)管線根本不是可行選項。

  • As a result, LNG flows remain significantly more disrupted throughout the quarter. The reduction in Qatar and UAE exports represented approximately 18 million tonnes of lower LNG supply during the quarter. Growth in production elsewhere, including our own Stage 3, largely offset those losses, but overall global LNG exports still declined by approximately 3 million tonnes year over year, and this decline is expected to grow over the rest of the year if the conflict persists.

    因此,整個季度 LNG 流量受到的干擾仍顯著更大。卡達與阿聯的出口減少,使本季 LNG 供應量約少了 1,800 萬噸。其他地區(包括我們自身的 Stage 3)產量成長大致抵銷了這些損失,但全球 LNG 出口量仍較去年同期下降約 300 萬噸;若衝突持續,預期此降幅在今年剩餘時間將進一步擴大。

  • The key point is that this was not simply a regional disruption. It represented one of the largest sudden disruptions to internationally traded gas supply in recent years. Additionally, as Asian prices moved to a premium over Europe, US LNG flows shifted decisively east. US exports to Asia reached a quarterly record of approximately 11 million tonnes, while deliveries to Europe declined materially from recent levels.

    重點在於,這不僅是區域性的中斷。這是近年來國際貿易天然氣供應中規模最大的突發中斷事件之一。此外,隨著亞洲價格相對歐洲轉為溢價,美國 LNG 流向明顯轉向東方。美國對亞洲出口創下單季紀錄,約達 1,100 萬噸,而對歐洲的交付量則較近期水準明顯下降。

  • Flexible destination contracts once again allowed Atlantic Basin supply to respond quickly to changing market signals. These developments were also reflected in global benchmark prices. As security of supply became the dominant market priority, both TTF and JKM moved sharply higher following the disruption.

    具彈性交付目的地的合約再次使大西洋盆地供應能快速回應市場訊號變化。這些發展也反映在全球基準價格上。當供應安全成為市場首要考量後,TTF 與 JKM 在中斷事件後均大幅走高。

  • While prices moderated after the ceasefire announcement, recent developments have pushed both benchmarks back up to levels last seen in March. By contrast, Henry Hub has remained stable throughout the period. Domestic US gas fundamentals have remained largely unchanged, highlighting that this is fundamentally an international security of supply event and is not constrained by US natural gas.

    雖然停火宣布後價格一度回落,但近期發展又將兩項基準推升回到 3 月以來的水準。相較之下,Henry Hub 在此期間維持穩定。美國國內天然氣基本面大致未變,凸顯這本質上是國際層面的供應安全事件,並非受限於美國天然氣供應。

  • As shown in the lower right chart, that divergence also extends into the forward curve. TTF, JKM and Brent continue to carry a meaningful geopolitical premium relative to pre-conflict levels, while Henry Hub remains anchored by abundant North American gas supply. Regional demand also adjusted.

    如右下圖所示,這種分歧也延伸至遠期曲線。相較衝突前水準,TTF、JKM 與 Brent 仍帶有顯著的地緣政治溢價,而 Henry Hub 則因北美天然氣供應充裕而維持錨定。各區域需求也出現調整。

  • China provided the greatest source of flexibility with imports declining by approximately 3 million tonnes year over year during the first half. Its diversified supply portfolio, including domestic production, pipeline imports and fuel switching capability allow China not only to reduce imports, but also to continue to redirect flexible cargoes into higher-value markets.

    中國提供了最大的彈性來源,上半年進口量較去年同期下降約 300 萬噸。其多元化的供應組合(包括國內產量、管線進口與燃料替代能力)使中國不僅能降低進口,也能持續將具彈性的貨物轉向價值更高的市場。

  • Finally, as has been the case all year, Europe entered the summer with storage materially below last year and the five-year average, ending the quarter with an approximately 11 bcm storage deficit versus last year, equivalent to roughly 100 cargoes of LNG. That deficit persisted despite record amounts of LNG imports.

    最後,如同今年以來的情況,歐洲在進入夏季時的庫存明顯低於去年與五年平均;本季末相較去年約有 110 億立方公尺(bcm)的庫存缺口,約相當於 100 船 LNG 貨物。即便 LNG 進口量創下紀錄,該缺口仍然存在。

  • Much of the incremental LNG received during the first quarter was consumed during the winter rather than injected into storage, while weaker indigenous production and lower pipe imports further limited inventory rebuilding. Injections have also remained below last year's pace since the storage season began.

    第一季所接收的增量LNG有很大一部分在冬季期間即被消耗,而非注入儲存;同時,本土產量走弱與管線進口下降也進一步限制了庫存回補。自儲存季開始以來,注入量也一直低於去年同期的步調。

  • Looking ahead, Europe is likely to begin the coming winter with less inventory than last year. The '25-'26 winter began with storage 82% full and ended this March at 28%, illustrating how quickly that buffer can be consumed. Even if Middle East LNG flows normalize soon, we currently expect Europe to struggle to reach the 80% storage target before the start of winter.

    展望未來,歐洲很可能在即將到來的冬季開始時,庫存水位低於去年。「25-26」年冬季在儲存達到82%滿庫的情況下開始,並於今年3月以28%結束,顯示該緩衝可被消耗的速度之快。即使中東LNG流量很快恢復正常,我們目前仍預期歐洲在冬季開始前將難以達到80%的儲存目標。

  • Generally, negative seasonal price spreads have reduced the economic incentive to inject and any continued disruption through Hormuz would further reduce that starting position and leave the market more exposed to weather and competing Asian demand.

    整體而言,負向的季節性價差降低了注入的經濟誘因,而若荷姆茲海峽的任何持續性中斷延續下去,將進一步削弱該起始水位,並使市場更暴露於天氣變化與亞洲競爭性需求之下。

  • Just as a rule of thumb, each additional month of constrained Hormuz LNG flows could reduce Europe's storage position by approximately 5 percentage points, carrying through from winter starts to winter exit, absent and offset elsewhere. Weather remains equally important. In winter, a 1-degree Celsius warmer or colder than normal can move that balance by approximately 10 percentage points.

    作為一個經驗法則,荷姆茲海峽LNG流量每額外受限一個月,可能使歐洲的儲存水位約下降5個百分點;在其他條件不變且未被其他因素抵銷的情況下,這種影響會從冬季開始延續到冬季結束。天氣同樣至關重要。在冬季,氣溫較常態每高或每低1攝氏度,可能使該平衡約變動10個百分點。

  • Taken together, these developments highlight two important features of today's LNG market, which has proven considerably more resilient than many expected, but resilience should not be mistaken for surplus. Flexible portfolios, destination optionality and demand-side adjustments have allowed the market to absorb a meaningful supply shock. At the same time, higher prices, Europe's slower storage rebuild and continued geopolitical uncertainty, all point to a market that remains precariously balanced.

    綜合來看,這些發展凸顯了當前LNG市場的兩個重要特徵:該市場已證明其韌性遠高於許多人的預期,但韌性不應被誤認為供給過剩。彈性的投資組合、目的地選擇權以及需求端調整,使市場得以吸收一個相當可觀的供給衝擊。同時,較高的價格、歐洲較慢的儲存回補,以及持續的地緣政治不確定性,都指向一個仍處於岌岌可危平衡狀態的市場。

  • The next slide illustrates how regions drew on different sources of flexibility to build resilience and maintain security supply through the disruption and what we see as the implications for the industry longer-term outlook. The first chart highlights how global LNG consumption evolved across the major importing regions, during the first half of the year.

    下一張投影片說明各地區如何動用不同的彈性來源,以在中斷期間建立韌性並維持供應安全,以及我們認為這對產業長期展望的意涵。第一張圖表重點呈現今年上半年全球LNG消費在主要進口地區的演變。

  • Despite the loss of Middle East supply, higher spot prices and increased volatility, LNG consumption remained at or near the top of the five-year range across most major importing regions. Europe imported a record volume of LNG during the first half of the year as it competed to rebuild storage while replacing lost Middle East supply. While the JKT region and South Asia remained within their historical range, Southeast Asia reported its highest first half LNG imports of the past five years.

    儘管中東供應減少、現貨價格上升且波動加劇,多數主要進口地區的LNG消費仍維持在或接近五年區間的高位。歐洲在上半年進口了創紀錄的LNG量,因其在替代流失的中東供應之際,也競相回補儲存。JKT地區與南亞仍落在其歷史區間內,而東南亞則回報過去五年中最高的上半年LNG進口量。

  • The resilient demand across these regions despite the loss of approximately 18 million tonnes of Middle East LNG supply and materially higher spot prices demonstrates the importance of LNG to their energy systems and the limited short-term price sensitivity of many consuming markets. China was the notable exception.

    在中東LNG供應約1,800萬噸流失且現貨價格顯著走高的情況下,這些地區仍展現出具韌性的需求,顯示LNG對其能源系統的重要性,以及許多消費市場在短期內對價格的敏感度有限。中國是顯著的例外。

  • First-half imports declined 10% to approximately 27 million tonnes, reflecting the broadest set of flexibility options of any major importer. Its diversified supply portfolio, including domestic production, pipeline imports, renewable generation, fuel switching capability and flexible LNG contracts allow China both to reduce imports and redirect cargoes into higher-value markets.

    上半年進口量下降10%至約2,700萬噸,反映其在所有主要進口國中擁有最廣泛的一組彈性選項。其多元化的供應組合,包括國內產量、管線進口、再生能源發電、燃料切換能力以及彈性的LNG合約,使中國既能降低進口,也能將貨物轉向價值更高的市場。

  • As a result, the market largely absorbed the supply shock through Chinese flexibility rather than widespread demand destruction. The mechanisms differ by region. Europe responded through higher LNG imports, albeit slower storage injections, while North Asia relied primarily on fuel switching and storage withdrawals. And Southeast Asia balanced affordability through a combination of fuel switching, procurement timing and selective demand destruction.

    因此,市場主要是透過中國的彈性來吸收供給衝擊,而非出現廣泛的需求破壞。各地區的機制有所不同。歐洲以提高LNG進口作出回應,但儲存注入較慢;而北亞主要依賴燃料切換與提取儲存。東南亞則透過燃料切換、採購時點安排與選擇性需求破壞的組合,在可負擔性之間取得平衡。

  • The middle chart illustrates that investment in new LNG supply continues against the backdrop of recent market volatility. Approximately 77 million tonnes of new LNG capacity reached FID in '25, followed by another 38 million tonnes so far this year. Despite tighter near-term market conditions, the industry continues to advance the next wave of liquefaction capacity needed to meet long-term demand growth.

    中間的圖表顯示,在近期市場波動的背景下,對新LNG供應的投資仍在持續。約7,700萬噸的新LNG產能於「25年」達成最終投資決策(FID),而今年迄今又有另外3,800萬噸。儘管短期市場條件更為吃緊,產業仍持續推進下一波液化產能,以滿足長期需求成長所需。

  • Finally, the chart on the right illustrates how the global supply landscape continues to evolve. Over the past decade, the United States has emerged as the world's largest source of incremental LNG supply. That leadership has been enabled by two structural advantages: an abundant low-cost natural gas resource base and consistent access to deep pools of capital capable of funding large-scale infrastructure.

    最後,右側圖表說明全球供給版圖如何持續演變。過去十年,美國已成為全球增量LNG供應的最大來源。這項領先地位得益於兩項結構性優勢:充沛且低成本的天然氣資源基礎,以及能夠為大型基礎建設提供資金的深厚且持續可得的資本池。

  • As a result, the global LNG market is becoming both larger and more diversified, with the United States expected to account for approximately 270 million tonnes of operational capacity by 2035, alongside substantial supply from Qatar, Australia and other producers. Importantly, that growth is being delivered through a variety of commercial models serving different customers and projects.

    因此,全球LNG市場正變得更大且更多元,預期到2035年美國的營運產能將約達2.7億噸,並與卡達、澳洲及其他生產國的可觀供應並存。重要的是,這些成長是透過多種商業模式交付,以服務不同的客戶與專案。

  • Cheniere's strategy has remained consistent throughout that evolution. We continue to have unwavering conviction in our belief that a highly contracted, returns-focused business model provides the best foundation for long-term value creation. That approach has enabled us to build a recognized reputation for reliability, while remaining disciplined in our returns-focused approach to growth.

    Cheniere的策略在這一演進過程中始終如一。我們仍堅定相信,高度簽約、以報酬為導向的商業模式,為長期價值創造提供最佳基礎。此一做法使我們建立了可靠性的良好聲譽,同時在以報酬為導向的成長策略上保持紀律。

  • In an increasingly fragmented global energy market, we believe that combination of reliability, commercial flexibility and disciplined execution remains a meaningful competitive advantage. An advantage that also accrues to our long-term customers as we approach cargo number 5,000 with an untarnished track record of cargo deliveries.

    在日益碎片化的全球能源市場中,我們相信,可靠性、商業彈性與紀律執行的組合,仍是重要的競爭優勢。隨著我們即將達到第5,000船貨物,且貨物交付紀錄完美無瑕,這項優勢也同樣惠及我們的長期客戶。

  • Recent events have reinforced both the importance of LNG and the resilience of the global market. While geopolitical uncertainty has increased and market conditions remain tight, the industry's response has demonstrated the value of reliable and flexible supply, diversified portfolios and trusted long-term partnerships.

    近期事件再次強化了LNG的重要性以及全球市場的韌性。儘管地緣政治不確定性上升且市場條件仍然吃緊,產業的回應展現了可靠且具彈性的供應、多元化投資組合以及值得信賴的長期夥伴關係之價值。

  • Those characteristics have defined Cheniere's strategy from the outset and continue to position us well to support not only our existing long-term partners, but also capture additional long-term opportunities as the market evolves.

    這些特質自一開始就定義了Cheniere的策略,並持續使我們具備良好定位,不僅能支持既有的長期合作夥伴,也能在市場演變之際把握更多長期機會。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

    接下來,我把電話交給Zach,請他回顧我們的財務結果與指引。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to discuss our financial results and further improved outlook for the full year. Before I begin, I wanted to reinforce that this highly contracted investment-grade LNG infrastructure company has been built for much more than as a trading proxy for prompt LNG prices.

    謝謝你,Anatol,各位早安。我很高興今天能在此討論我們的財務結果,以及我們對全年進一步改善的展望。在開始之前,我想再次強調,這家高度簽約、具投資等級的LNG基礎設施公司,其打造目的遠不僅是作為即期LNG價格的交易代理。

  • While today's results and upwardly revised guidance highlights the financial upside that can present itself by bringing trains on early, debottlenecking and most importantly, operating reliably in the midst of a highly elevated and volatile LNG price environment, we don't see these financial results as one-off going forward once LNG prices stabilize.

    雖然今日的結果與上修後的指引凸顯了在高度上升且波動劇烈的LNG價格環境中,透過提前投產、去瓶頸,以及最重要的可靠營運所能帶來的財務上行空間,但我們不認為一旦LNG價格趨於穩定,這些財務結果在未來就會是一次性的。

  • These forecasted results of $8-plus billion of EBITDA are levels we plan on achieving in run rate as we simply build out the Corpus mid-scale trains and FID SPL Train 7 by early 2027. And that's in an LNG market environment of not over $10 LNG margins, but at a fraction of that in our $2.50 to $3 margin range before any upside.

    這些預測的EBITDA超過80億美元,是我們計畫在運轉率(run rate)上達成的水準;我們只需在2027年初前完成Corpus中型(mid-scale)液化列車的建置,並對SPL第7列車作出FID。而且這是在LNG市場環境並非擁有超過10美元的LNG利潤,而是在我們每單位利潤2.50至3美元區間、且尚未計入任何上行空間的情況下。

  • This should highlight the financial resiliency of Cheniere's disciplined business model for the long term that will continue to set us apart as the premier US LNG company or for that matter, contracted infrastructure company in North America.

    這應能凸顯Cheniere長期以來具紀律的商業模式之財務韌性,並將持續使我們脫穎而出,成為美國首屈一指的LNG公司,或更廣泛而言,成為北美首屈一指的簽約型基礎設施公司。

  • Please turn to slide 11. For the second quarter of 2026, we generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.8 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion. Compared to 2Q 2025, our second quarter 2026 results reflect higher volumes of LNG delivered due to increased production from new capacity online at Stage 3 and no major planned maintenance outages during the quarter. Our second quarter results were also supported by higher marketing margins achieved and optimization due to continued gas price volatility.

    請翻到第 11 頁投影片。2026 年第二季,我們產生合併調整後 EBITDA 約 18 億美元,以及可分配現金流約 12 億美元。與 2025 年第二季相比,我們 2026 年第二季的結果反映出 LNG 交付量增加,原因是第 3 階段新增產能上線帶動產量提升,且本季未發生任何重大計畫性維修停機。我們第二季的結果亦受惠於更高的行銷利差與持續的天然氣價格波動所帶來的最佳化效益。

  • During the quarter, we recognized in income 657 TBtu of LNG, which while up quarter over quarter due to the in-transit cargo timing dynamic impacting 1Q that we discussed on our last call, 2Q volumes recognized are also partially lower due to several cargoes rerouting from Europe to Asia intra-quarter, pushing delivery into 3Q.

    本季我們在損益中認列 657 TBtu 的 LNG;雖然相較前一季有所增加,主要是因為我們在上次電話會議中提到、影響第一季的在途貨物時點因素,但第二季認列的量也因數批貨物在季內由歐洲改道至亞洲而部分降低,並將交付推遲至第三季。

  • During the second quarter, we also generated net income of approximately $3.1 billion, up nearly $1.5 billion from 2Q 2025. The increase is driven primarily by the noncash derivative impact related to our long-term IPM agreements, which are designed to secure long-term natural gas supply to our facilities, while providing stable fixed fee economics for our project infrastructure, similar to the economics of our long-term SPAs.

    第二季我們亦創造淨利約 31 億美元,較 2025 年第二季增加近 15 億美元。此增幅主要由與我們長期 IPM 協議相關的非現金衍生工具影響所驅動;這些協議旨在為我們的設施確保長期天然氣供應,同時為我們的專案基礎設施提供穩定的固定費用經濟性,類似於我們長期 SPA 的經濟性。

  • Historically, our net income has experienced significant variability related to these unrealized noncash derivative impacts due to the mismatch of accounting methodology for the purchase of natural gas and the corresponding sale of LNG related to our long-term IPM agreements.

    歷史上,由於長期 IPM 協議下天然氣採購與相應 LNG 銷售在會計方法上存在不匹配,我們的淨利曾因這些未實現的非現金衍生工具影響而出現顯著波動。

  • Near the end of the second quarter, we designated the normal purchases and normal sales accounting exception for approximately 75% of the volumes related to our IPM agreements after considerations of the evolving US gas market transactions landscape. As a result of this designation, these agreements will no longer be marked to fair value each period, eliminating derivative accounting adjustments for these volumes in future quarters.

    在第二季接近尾聲時,考量美國天然氣市場交易環境的演變,我們就與 IPM 協議相關約 75% 的量指定適用「正常採購與正常銷售」會計例外。由於此項指定,這些協議未來將不再於每期按公允價值計量,從而在未來季度消除針對這些量的衍生工具會計調整。

  • We expect this election for the volumes that are delivered directly into our sites to result in reduced variability in our net income quarter to quarter going forward as there will be less sensitivity to commodity prices related to these designated agreements, which is more reflective of the stable long-term cash flow profile afforded by our highly contracted infrastructure platform.

    我們預期,對於直接交付至我們場站的這些量採用此項選擇,將在未來降低我們淨利的季度間波動,因為對商品價格的敏感度將因這些已指定的協議而降低;這也更能反映我們高度簽約的基礎設施平台所帶來的穩定長期現金流特性。

  • During the second quarter, we deployed almost $900 million of equity cash flow towards our comprehensive pillars of capital allocation, including accretive growth, shareholder returns in the form of buybacks and dividends and balance sheet management. For the first half of the year, our capital deployment of equity cash flow totaled approximately $2.1 billion. And of that, over $1.3 billion was returned to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

    第二季,我們將近 9 億美元的股權現金流投入我們全面的資本配置支柱,包括增值型成長、以回購與股利形式回饋股東,以及資產負債表管理。上半年,我們以股權現金流進行的資本部署合計約 21 億美元。其中,超過 13 億美元以回購與股利形式回饋股東。

  • For the second quarter, we declared a dividend of $0.555 per common share, bringing total dividend payout to common shareholders in the first half of the year to approximately $230 million, and we remain committed to growing our dividend by at least 10% annually through the end of this decade. With the expectation to seek Board approval for Q3 for our next increase as this recent declaration completes a full year's worth of dividends at this level.

    第二季,我們宣告每股普通股股利 0.555 美元,使上半年對普通股股東的股利總發放額約為 2.3 億美元;我們仍致力於在本十年結束前,每年將股利至少提高 10%。我們預期在第三季尋求董事會核准下一次調升,因為此次宣告完成了在此水準下整整一年的股利發放。

  • In the second quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares for $550 million, bringing total buybacks in the first half of the year to approximately $1.1 billion. for nearly 5 million shares. As a reminder, each quarter, we allocate capital to our share repurchase plan, which is then opportunistically deployed under our disciplined value-based framework as we work towards crossing over 200 million shares and then to our current target of 175 million shares outstanding later this decade.

    第二季,我們以 5.5 億美元回購約 220 萬股,使上半年回購總額約為 11 億美元、合計接近 500 萬股。提醒一下,每一季我們都會為股票回購計畫配置資本,並在我們嚴謹、以價值為導向的框架下伺機執行;我們正朝著將流通股數降至 2 億股以下,並在本十年稍晚達到目前目標的 1.75 億股流通在外邁進。

  • With the continued volatility in the shares this year, the plan is working as designed and remains an advantaged form of capital return for our shareholders, enabling them to own more of Sabine and Corpus and our run rate cash flows while preserving the financial flexibility essential to our growing infrastructure platform and long-term capital allocation plan.

    在今年股價持續波動的情況下,該計畫如設計般運作,並仍是對股東而言具優勢的資本回饋方式,使股東在維持對我們成長型基礎設施平台與長期資本配置計畫所必需的財務彈性的同時,能擁有更多 Sabine 與 Corpus 以及我們常態化現金流的權益。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. In May, we issued $1 billion of 2036 notes and $750 million of 2056 notes at CQP, marking our second 30-year issuance and first ever at CQP, further extending our maturity stack into the second half of this century alongside a growing list of our long-term LNG contracts. The net proceeds were used to opportunistically redeem the $1.5 billion of senior secured notes due 2027 at SPL, further reducing the amount of secured debt on our balance sheet and to fund a portion of the LNTP on Phase 1 of the SPL expansion project.

    接著談資產負債表。5 月,我們在 CQP 發行 10 億美元 2036 年到期票據與 7.5 億美元 2056 年到期票據,這是我們第二次發行 30 年期債券,也是 CQP 首次發行,進一步將到期結構延伸至本世紀下半葉,並與我們日益增加的長期 LNG 合約相呼應。所得淨額用於伺機贖回 SPL 於 2027 年到期的 15 億美元優先擔保票據,進一步降低資產負債表上的擔保債務規模,並為 SPL 擴建專案第一期的 LNTP 提供部分資金。

  • We also amended and restated our Cheniere and CCH credit facilities, extending maturities, improving pricing, enhancing flexibility and preserving $2.75 billion of credit capacity. Our tactical approach to liquidity and balance sheet management continues to afford us flexibility as we pursue further expansions of our existing brownfield platform while remaining opportunistic on our buyback program and preserving our investment-grade ratings across our corporate structure.

    我們亦修訂並重述 Cheniere 與 CCH 的信貸融資安排,延長到期日、改善定價、提升彈性,並保留 27.5 億美元的信貸額度。我們在流動性與資產負債表管理上的戰術性作法,持續賦予我們彈性,使我們在推進既有棕地平台的進一步擴建之際,仍能在回購計畫上把握機會,並在整體公司架構中維持投資級評等。

  • During the quarter, we funded approximately $1.1 billion of growth capital across our business, as we progress construction of Stage 3 and mid-scale 8 and 9, development of the SPL and CCL expansion projects as well as Gregory Power Plant.

    本季,我們在全業務範圍內投入約 11 億美元的成長資本,隨著第 3 階段與中型規模第 8、9 號項目施工推進,SPL 與 CCL 擴建專案的開發,以及 Gregory 發電廠的進展。

  • Of the $1.1 billion of growth CapEx in the quarter, approximately $200 million was equity funded and approximately $900 million was efficiently debt funded via our delayed draw Corpus Christi term loan as well as a portion of the net proceeds from the CQP bonds issued during the quarter.

    在本季 11 億美元的成長資本支出中,約 2 億美元以股權資金支應,約 9 億美元則透過我們的 Corpus Christi 延遲提領定期貸款,以及本季發行 CQP 債券所得淨額的一部分,以有效率的方式以債務資金支應。

  • As Jack noted, in conjunction with the signing of the lump sum turnkey EPC contract with Bechtel for Phase 1 of the SPL expansion project, we issued Bechtel limited notice to proceed with early engineering and procurement, increasing our spend on that project during the quarter ahead of an expected formal FID early next year.

    如 Jack 所提,配合與 Bechtel 就 SPL 擴建專案第一期簽署總價交鑰匙(lump sum turnkey)EPC 合約,我們已向 Bechtel 發出有限開工通知(limited notice to proceed),以進行前期工程設計與採購,使我們在本季對該專案的支出增加,並領先於預期明年初的正式 FID。

  • Last week, we launched the process to raise a senior secured delayed draw term loan at SPL that, together with the proceeds from our recent CQP bond deals, will fund the 50% debt component for Phase 1, while we fund the other half of the total project cost with equity cash flow by continuing to flex the variable component of the CQP distribution.

    上週,我們啟動在 SPL 募集一筆優先擔保延遲提領定期貸款的流程;該貸款與我們近期 CQP 債券交易的募集資金合併,將為第一期提供 50% 的債務資金部分;同時,我們將透過持續調整 CQP 配息中的可變部分,以股權現金流支付專案總成本的另一半。

  • With the EPC contract signed, the project fully commercialized and the financing process underway, we have significant visibility into the economics of Phase 1 at SPL, and we are confident that this highly brownfield project represents one of the most competitive risk-adjusted return profiles in energy infrastructure today.

    隨著 EPC 合約簽署、專案完成全面商業化且融資流程已啟動,我們對 SPL 第一期的經濟性具有高度可視性;我們有信心,這個高度棕地化的專案在當今能源基礎設施領域,代表最具競爭力的風險調整後報酬輪廓之一。

  • Looking ahead, we remain well positioned to fund our disciplined growth objectives and comfortably within our cash flow forecast, while retaining our strong investment-grade credit metrics and our significant financial flexibility for shareholder returns through any commodity cycle.

    展望未來,我們仍具備良好條件以資助我們嚴謹的成長目標,並能在現金流預測範圍內從容推進,同時維持強勁的投資級信用指標,以及在任何商品循環下為股東回饋保有顯著的財務彈性。

  • Turning now to slide 12, where I will discuss our upwardly revised 2026 financial guidance and outlook for the year. Today, we are increasing the midpoint of our guidance ranges for full year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow by $650 million and $550 million, respectively, bringing an expected consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $7.9 billion to $8.4 billion and distributable cash flow to $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion.

    接著看第 12 頁投影片,我將說明我們上調後的 2026 年財務指引與全年展望。今天,我們將 2026 全年合併調整後 EBITDA 與可分配現金流指引區間的中位數分別上調 6.5 億美元與 5.5 億美元,使預期合併調整後 EBITDA 達 79 億至 84 億美元,可分配現金流達 53 億至 58 億美元。

  • We are maintaining our CQP distribution guidance for the year of $3.10 to $3.40 per common unit as we fund the LNTP for the SPL expansion. These increases are primarily driven by an upwardly revised 2026 production forecast from increased utilization and outperformance at both SPL and CCL, and the further accelerated ramp-up of our mid-scale trains as well as capturing higher margins on recent spot sales, along with the higher margin outlook for the remainder of the year.

    在為 SPL 擴建案籌資 LNTP 的同時,我們維持今年 CQP 每普通單位配息指引為 3.10 至 3.40 美元不變。這些上調主要來自於我們因 SPL 與 CCL 兩地利用率提升與表現優於預期,而上修 2026 年產量預測;同時中型產線(mid-scale trains)進一步加速爬坡,以及近期現貨銷售取得較高毛利,並且對今年剩餘期間的毛利展望也更為樂觀。

  • We are tightening our expected full year production range, increasing our forecast from 52 million to 54 million tonnes to 53 million to 54 million tonnes. Contributions from optimization activities, both upstream and downstream of our facilities locked in since our last call also supported our results.

    我們正在收斂全年預期產量區間,將預測由 5,200 萬至 5,400 萬噸上調並調整為 5,300 萬至 5,400 萬噸。自上次電話會議以來,我們在設施上游與下游已鎖定的最佳化活動所帶來的貢獻,也支撐了我們的業績表現。

  • With enhanced visibility in our forecast and continued forward selling by our team during the quarter, we continue to forecast less than 1 million tonnes or 50 TBtu of unsold open volumes remaining in 2026. Therefore, we continue to forecast that a $1 change in market margins would impact EBITDA by less than $50 million for the full year.

    在預測能見度提升、且本季團隊持續進行遠期銷售的情況下,我們仍預估 2026 年未售出的開放量將少於 100 萬噸或 50 TBtu。因此,我們仍預估市場毛利每變動 1 美元,對全年 EBITDA 的影響將低於 5,000 萬美元。

  • Despite having very little open exposure for the balance of the year, we are maintaining the $500 million guidance ranges as results could still be impacted by a number of factors, particularly given the sustained elevated pricing and volatility in LNG markets the ramp-up and specific timing of substantial completion of Train 7 at Stage 3, the timing of certain cargoes around year end, contributions from further optimization activities during the balance of the year, and the impact Henry Hub prices can have on lifting margin.

    儘管今年剩餘期間我們幾乎沒有未對沖的開放曝險,我們仍維持 5 億美元的指引區間,因為結果仍可能受到多項因素影響,特別是在 LNG 市場價格持續高檔且波動之下,包括:第三期第 7 列車(Train 7)達到實質完工(substantial completion)的爬坡與具體時點、年末前後部分貨船(cargoes)的時點、今年剩餘期間進一步最佳化活動的貢獻,以及 Henry Hub 價格對提貨毛利(lifting margin)的影響。

  • As we progress through the year and further lock in some of these variables, we will look to tighten these ranges as we have done in years past. And on our next call for 3Q, we expect to provide our 2027 production forecast and expected open capacity for next year, our first full year with all of Stage 3 operational.

    隨著我們在今年進程中逐步鎖定其中一些變數,我們將如同過往年度一樣,尋求進一步收斂這些區間。並且在下一次 3Q 電話會議上,我們預計提供 2027 年產量預測與明年預期的開放產能(open capacity),也就是第三期全面投運後的第一個完整年度。

  • Our strong results year to date support today's full year guidance raise, both of which are a testament to the competitive advantages afforded by our world-class infrastructure platform and business model that yields decades of cash flow visibility, thanks to our portfolio of long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties, but also positions us to respond to market signals and capitalize on optimization opportunities throughout our business.

    我們年初至今的強勁表現支撐了今天上調的全年指引;兩者都證明了我們世界級基礎設施平台與商業模式所帶來的競爭優勢。憑藉與具信用資質對手方簽訂的長期合約組合,我們擁有數十年的現金流能見度,同時也使我們能夠回應市場訊號,並在整個業務中把握最佳化機會。

  • We believe our stable long-duration cash flow profile paired with this upside potential presents through-cycle risk-adjusted value for our shareholders that is unmatched in the market today and is only further supported by our disciplined all-of-the-above capital allocation framework.

    我們相信,穩定且長久的現金流特性搭配這些上行潛力,為股東提供了穿越景氣循環、經風險調整後的價值,當前市場上無可匹敵;而我們嚴謹、全方位(all-of-the-above)的資本配置框架也進一步支撐了這一點。

  • As we embark on this next chapter of growth at both Sabine and Corpus, we remain committed to creating sustainable long-term value for our stakeholders, while safely operating our platform in order to supply our global customer base with our secure, reliable and flexible LNG for decades to come.

    當我們在 Sabine 與 Corpus 兩地展開下一階段成長篇章之際,我們仍致力於為利害關係人創造可持續的長期價值,同時以安全方式營運我們的平台,為全球客戶群在未來數十年提供安全、可靠且具彈性的 LNG。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

    以上為我們預先準備的發言。感謝各位撥冗與對 Cheniere 的關注。接線員,我們準備開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    (接線員指示) Barclays 的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • As we look ahead to winter, Anatol, your comments paint a stark picture. How do you see LNG demand and trade flows balancing between Asia and Europe, particularly given Europe's relatively low storage levels and inventory deficit. Do you expect increased competition for marginal LNG cargoes? And what implications could that have for global LNG pricing trade patterns?

    展望冬季,Anatol,你的評論描繪出相當嚴峻的情勢。你如何看待亞洲與歐洲之間 LNG 需求與貿易流向的平衡,特別是在歐洲儲氣水位相對偏低且庫存缺口的情況下?你是否預期邊際 LNG 貨船(marginal LNG cargoes)的競爭將加劇?這可能對全球 LNG 定價與貿易型態帶來哪些影響?

  • And against this backdrop, could you provide an update on commercial discussions with existing and prospective customers across both regions? How are conversations progressing around incremental LNG offtake? When we see additional SPAs that could underpin further expansion phases at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi?

    在此背景下,你能否更新一下與兩個地區既有及潛在客戶的商業洽談進度?關於新增 LNG 承購量(incremental LNG offtake)的對話進展如何?我們何時可能看到更多 SPA,進而支撐 Sabine Pass 與 Corpus Christi 兩地後續擴建階段?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Theresa, thanks for the three questions in one. So first, we honestly don't know. I mean this is a very challenging environment. We're doing everything we can. You heard from the team about our operational excellence and how we're putting as much volume into the market as we can, trains arriving early.

    Theresa,謝謝你把三個問題合在一個。首先,我們坦白說不知道。我的意思是,這是一個非常具挑戰性的環境。我們正在盡一切所能。你也聽到團隊提到我們的營運卓越,以及我們如何盡可能把更多量推向市場,產線(trains)也提前到位。

  • We're supporting customers wherever and whenever possible. But as you point out, it's no secret. Europe is in a very challenging position. It was in the spring that has only been accentuated by these delays and the continued disruptions.

    我們在任何可能的時間與地點都支持客戶。但如你所指出,這不是秘密。歐洲正處於非常艱難的處境。春季時就已如此,而這些延宕與持續的干擾只讓情況更加惡化。

  • And we actually -- numbers today, we think it will be tough to get to 70%, much less 80% of inventory. And it will be a challenge, especially as Asia, as you point out, restocks, which has been one of the flexibility levers that has allowed the market to rebalance and China goes into winter.

    而且就目前的數字來看,我們認為要達到 70% 都很困難,更不用說 80% 的庫存水位。這將是一項挑戰,尤其是如你所說,亞洲開始補庫存——這一直是讓市場得以重新平衡的彈性槓桿之一——以及中國進入冬季。

  • So we will do everything we can to support our partners. All of this is, even in the fog of war, is a great tailwind for us, as we commented in the prepared remarks that reliability, our ability to, again, work with our partners, find solutions, use the flexibility in our portfolio of the IPM agreements and the volumes that we have in that bucket that can go and solve short-term BTU shortage issue is all a tailwind.

    因此我們會盡一切所能支持合作夥伴。即便在戰爭迷霧之中,這一切對我們而言都是強勁的順風;正如我們在準備稿中所評論的,可靠性、我們再次與合作夥伴協作的能力、尋找解決方案、運用我們 IPM 協議組合中的彈性,以及我們在該「籃子」中的可用量,能夠用來解決短期 BTU 供給不足問題——這些都是順風因素。

  • And we're very comfortable, as you said, we are partially commercialized the Corpus expansion. We're very comfortable that over the next 12 to 18 months, we will have the kind of mid-single-digit millions of tonnes that are aligned with our commercial objectives to commercially support Phase 1 at Corpus, now that Phase 1 at Sabine is commercialized.

    而且我們非常有信心,如你所說,我們已部分完成 Corpus 擴建案的商業化。我們非常有信心在未來 12 到 18 個月內,我們將取得符合商業目標、約數百萬噸(中個位數百萬噸)的量,足以在商業上支撐 Corpus 第 1 期,因為 Sabine 第 1 期現在已完成商業化。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you for that comprehensive answer and bearing with me, Anatol. Just a quick follow up as a result. Do you think we've reached the limits of China's LNG demand flexibility, particularly with respect to fuel switching? Or do you believe that their imports could decline further from current levels?

    謝謝你如此全面的回答,也謝謝你包容我,Anatol。我再快速追問一點。你認為中國 LNG 需求的彈性是否已到極限,特別是在燃料替代(fuel switching)方面?或者你認為他們的進口量還可能從目前水準進一步下降?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, I think we're very close. The last few months, China has been at or above last year's levels in terms of imports. Again, we're going into the winter. Q2 is clearly a period where the world is much more flexible during the shoulder and China will be -- as a system, we'll be keenly aware of its inventory levels and will not allow itself to, we think, to get into the position that unfortunately, Europe has found itself in. So short answer, yes, I think China is at -- kind of at its limit for solving this issue for the world.

    我認為我們非常接近了。過去幾個月,中國的進口量已達到或高於去年水準。同樣地,我們正進入冬季。第二季顯然是全球在淡旺季交界(shoulder)期間彈性較大的時段,而中國——作為一個系統——會非常密切關注其庫存水位,並且我們認為不會讓自己陷入不幸如歐洲目前所處的局面。所以簡短回答:是的,我認為中國在——某種程度上——已接近其為全球解決此問題的極限。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    JPMorgan 的 Jeremy Tonet。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up on some of the market dynamic questions there. And I was just curious, I think Anatol, in the past, you might have said that there's a recency bias when it comes to contracting. And with LNG prices being higher here, just wondering if that influences, I guess, the tone of conversations as you look to sign up more SPAs.

    我想延續剛才一些市場動態的問題。我有點好奇,我想 Anatol,你過去可能提過在簽約方面存在「近期偏誤」(recency bias)。在目前 LNG 價格較高的情況下,想請問這是否會影響你在洽談並簽署更多 SPA 時的對話氛圍或基調?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Jeremy. I think what influences it is much more the importance of reliability and partnership in this period. The headwind, as we've discussed over the last couple of years is that, in aggregate, from the start of '25 through today, over 100 million tonnes have been FID-ed and a lot of that volume has not found its way to end users, which is -- which, of course, is not how we conduct business, but that is how the market is evolving.

    謝謝,Jeremy。我認為在這段期間影響更大的是可靠性與夥伴關係的重要性。如同我們過去幾年討論過的逆風是:整體而言,從25年初到今天,累計已有超過1億噸完成FID,而其中相當一部分的量尚未流向終端用戶;這——當然——不是我們做生意的方式,但市場正朝這個方向演變。

  • So you have those two kind of competing forces that what we've termed in the past that race to the bottom of the standardized 20-year offtake agreement is not a market that we participate in. We participate in the premium market that values our reliability and what we've been able to do for our customers over the last decade plus.

    所以你會看到兩股有點互相拉扯的力量:我們過去所稱的、標準化20年期承購協議的「向下競爭」並不是我們參與的市場。我們參與的是重視我們可靠性、以及我們在過去十多年為客戶所做到的事情的高端市場。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That makes sense. And then just wanted to turn towards the kind of operational outperformance, if you will. I guess, the guidance moving up with improved reliability, being able to produce a bit more. I guess, if you could speak to maybe some of the drivers to that?

    了解。這很合理。接著我想把話題轉到所謂的營運超預期表現。我想,指引上調是因為可靠性改善、能夠多生產一些。想請你談談可能有哪些驅動因素?

  • And do you think effective capacity for these units are something marginally higher than what you thought in the past?

    另外你是否認為,這些機組的有效產能可能比你們過去想的略高一些?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. Jeremy, I'm always amazed and pleased with my folks -- my operating folks because they are finding ways to not only get more production instantaneously out of the trains, but also to optimize maintenance schedules and their execution on some of the turnarounds and preventative maintenance program have been incredible.

    不。Jeremy,我一直對我的同仁——我的營運團隊——感到驚喜也很欣慰,因為他們不僅找到方法讓各列車即時提高產量,也能優化維修排程與執行;他們在一些大修與預防性維護計畫上的執行表現非常出色。

  • But we feel really good that the work that we've done on debottlenecking, I think we've touched upon it in the past, like we added some new fin fans that we developed together with Hudson, those fin fans for the same motor amperage provide over 40% more air flow, which provides more cooling during this hot summertime. It's providing real benefits, especially at Sabine Pass, and that's what we're seeing.

    但我們對去瓶頸所做的工作感覺非常好;我想我們以前提過,例如我們與Hudson共同開發並新增了一些新型翅片風扇(fin fans),在相同馬達電流下,這些翅片風扇可提供超過40%更多的風量,讓炎熱夏季能有更多冷卻能力。這帶來了實質效益,特別是在Sabine Pass,而這正是我們所看到的。

  • Knock on wood, some of the root cause problems we had last year around the first quarter, we've we figured out and we fixed, and those seem to be behind us. So everything that we've mentioned, we feel good is repeatable year over year.

    敲敲木頭,去年第一季左右我們遇到的一些根本原因問題,我們已經找出來並修復了,看起來已經成為過去。所以我們提到的所有事項,我們都很有信心可以年復一年地重複實現。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would just highlight, Jeremy, as well as we think about the numbers and how we started the year at 51 million to 53 million tonnes of production, and now we're at 53 million to 54 million tonnes, only 1/3 of that, if that is the Stage 3 ramp-up and just the trains coming on early and getting to full run rate or better -- quicker than we originally anticipated.

    另外我也想強調,Jeremy,當我們看數字時:年初我們的產量目標是5,100萬到5,300萬噸,現在是5,300萬到5,400萬噸;其中只有三分之一(如果以此計)來自第三階段(Stage 3)爬坡,也就是列車提前投產並更快達到滿載或更高——比我們原先預期更快。

  • More than two-thirds is all this outperformance that Jack mentioned. It's all of the resiliency efforts and debottlenecking, but mainly resiliency efforts that we've done at both sites that has decreased downtime, decreased defrost, decreased even maintenance time for the year that we really had to bake in after the experiences we had in 2025.

    超過三分之二則來自Jack提到的這些超預期表現。這包括我們在兩個場址所做的所有韌性提升與去瓶頸工作,但主要是韌性提升:它降低了停機時間、降低了除霜(defrost)、甚至降低了全年維修所需時間——這些原本在2025年的經驗之後我們必須納入規劃。

  • So it's paid dividends clearly to this year, even adding 0.5 million tonnes added $300 million to the guidance when margins are this high. And we're optimistic this will pay dividends not just for this year but going forward on the reliability improvements.

    所以這顯然在今年帶來了回報;在利差這麼高的情況下,額外增加50萬噸就讓指引增加了3億美元。而且我們樂觀認為,可靠性改善帶來的回報不只在今年,未來也會持續。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. And Jack, even post the LS sale, it will always be the Jack Fusco Energy Center to us.

    了解。Jack,即使在LS出售之後,對我們來說它永遠都是Jack Fusco能源中心。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Jeremy. But I was hoping they would change the name of that power plant before now.

    謝謝你,Jeremy。不過我原本希望他們在現在之前就把那座電廠改名。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, now they will because you just said it on an earnings call.

    嗯,現在他們會了,因為你剛剛在財報電話會議上說出來了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    Citi的Spiro Dounis。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • I want to go back and pick on some of the comments addressed already, and maybe starting with the Middle East conflict here. So it's been months now after that initial conflict has began. So I'm curious if you could just put a finer point on what's changed in commercial discussions pre and post conflict. It sounds like there's a hyperfocus on supply security here. And so does that give you room on the margin or price side?

    我想回頭追問一些剛才已經提到的評論,或許先從中東衝突談起。距離最初衝突爆發已經好幾個月了。所以我想請你更精準地說明一下,衝突前後在商業談判上有哪些改變。聽起來大家高度聚焦在供應安全。那麼這是否讓你們在利差或價格方面有更多空間?

  • And when it comes to timing, I assume it's been hard to think long term right now. But once the dust sort of settles, how are you thinking about the timing to see the conflict start to translate into longer-term SPAs? And would those contracts start to fill the hopper for trains beyond 75 Mtpa?

    另外在時點上,我猜現在很難做長期思考。但等塵埃落定之後,你們如何看待衝突開始轉化為長期SPA的時間點?而這些合約是否會開始為超過7,500萬噸/年的列車(trains)把「料斗」填滿?

  • Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Anatol Feygin - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Spiro. I'll start backwards. So I think going into the conflict because the world was very uncertain about the timing of the resolution, the assumptions continue to roll on a fairly kind of short-term basis. I think on the last call, we talked about our key partners in the theater that were affected by this finding solutions through the second quarter.

    謝謝,Spiro。我先從後面回答。我認為在衝突爆發之初,因為全世界對解決時間點非常不確定,所以各種假設仍以相當短期的方式在滾動。我想在上次電話會議上,我們談到在受影響地區的關鍵夥伴正在尋找解決方案以度過第二季。

  • Obviously, we went through the second quarter with the market being disrupted even for the brief period that volumes were moving out of the market. And now we're going to probably exit the third quarter still in this fog of war and uncertainty about the disruption even if volumes start picking up today.

    顯然,我們已經走過第二季;即便只是短暫期間有部分貨量退出市場,市場仍受到擾動。而現在我們可能在第三季結束時仍處於這種戰爭迷霧之中,對於擾動的程度仍不確定,即使今天開始貨量回升也是如此。

  • So you're right that counterparties have been dealing with this period and figuring out literally how to keep the lights on. As we said in our prepared remarks, we've been surprised -- positively surprised by how certain markets have actually been more resilient in terms of their LNG demand than we would have expected.

    所以你說得對,交易對手一直在應對這段期間,並且實際上在想辦法「讓燈一直亮著」。如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所說,我們感到驚訝——而且是正面的驚訝——某些市場的LNG需求韌性其實比我們原先預期更強。

  • Now moving forward to the long-term issue, as you can also expect the discussions have continued to be very robust. Again, we're very comfortable where we are and the progress that we will make in the coming quarters to continue to support Stage 4. We do think that those discussions are benefiting from, again, how we have performed and the ability of companies to have that diversification and flexibility.

    接著談長期議題:如你所料,相關討論仍然非常熱絡。同樣地,我們對目前所處位置以及未來幾季將取得的進展感到非常有信心,能持續支持第四階段(Stage 4)。我們確實認為,這些討論也受益於——再次強調——我們的表現,以及企業能夠擁有多元化與彈性的能力。

  • In terms of the quantity, the question you're asking is are we comfortable that we can get more than single-digit millions of tonnes at our usual kind of $2.50 to $3 range. There, the issue for now, again, is this competitive landscape where we think order of magnitude, 100 million tonnes is trying to find a home.

    至於數量方面,你問的是:我們是否有把握能以我們一貫約2.50到3美元的區間,拿到超過「個位數百萬噸」的量。目前的問題仍然是這個競爭格局:我們認為大約有1億噸的量正在尋找去處。

  • So that's the tug of war. We're, at this point, very comfortable that we can get our premium with our key partners, both existing and new ones. Am I comfortable that 20 million tonnes can be done at that level today? That's -- I'm less comfortable with that over that 12- to 18-month period than I am with the mid-single digits.

    所以這就是拉鋸。就目前而言,我們非常有信心能與我們的關鍵夥伴——不論是既有或新的——取得我們的溢價。至於我是否有信心今天就能以那個水準做出2,000萬噸?相較於中個位數百萬噸,我對未來12到18個月能做到那樣的量就沒那麼有把握。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And Spiro, I wouldn't discount the fact that we -- later this month, we will have sent out our 5,000th cargo that we haven't missed a foundation customer cargo and that reliability, especially during all the volatility that we've seen really since February of '22 with the Ukraine-Russian conflict, that reliability has been worth a significant amount of money for our long-term customers. And so hopefully, we can make Anatol's job a lot easier.

    另外,Spiro,我不會忽視這一點——本月稍晚,我們將已經發運第5,000船貨,我們沒有錯過任何一船基礎客戶的貨物;而這種可靠性,特別是在我們自2022年2月烏俄衝突以來所見到的各種波動之中,對我們的長期客戶而言,已經值回了相當可觀的金額。因此,希望我們能讓Anatol的工作輕鬆很多。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Yes. I think that counts for something. Second question, just a quick one here on nitrogen. It was a bit of an issue late last year, and I know you've been working to address the nitrogen content. So just curious maybe where you are on that process now.

    是的。我認為這確實有其價值。第二個問題,關於氮含量,這裡快速問一下。去年年底這有點成為問題,我知道你們一直在努力解決氮含量。所以想請教一下,你們目前在這個流程上進展到哪裡了?

  • And with the influx of gas coming back out of the Permian with new egress, do you feel like you're prepared to deal with content going forward as well?

    另外,隨著二疊紀盆地(Permian)因新增外輸能力而有更多天然氣回流,你們覺得自己也已準備好因應未來的成分(含量)問題嗎?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So with the nitrogen, we have a couple of tools in our toolkit that we've been using. So one of them is process oriented, where if we subcool the LNG, we can actually liquefy the nitrogen in the process and evacuate it that way. And then other things are like Zach mentioned, the Gregory Power project, where we'll send high nitrogen gas to the power plant and have it burn and consume it.

    是的。關於氮,我們的工具箱裡有幾項工具一直在使用。其中一項是製程面的:如果我們將LNG進一步過冷(subcool),就能在製程中把氮液化,並以此方式將其排出。另外一些作法如Zach提到的Gregory Power專案,我們會把高氮天然氣送到電廠燃燒並消耗掉。

  • We've seen the nitrogen stabilize at about 1.5% from the Permian, which has been good, and we've blended it ourselves with some lower nitrogen gas that we've procured from some -- directly from some suppliers. So we've got a lot of different handles, Spiro, that we've been using to manage the nitrogen. And we have a few more up our sleeve that I won't divulge on this call.

    我們看到來自二疊紀盆地的氮含量已穩定在約1.5%,這很好;而且我們也自行把它與一些我們向部分——直接向一些供應商採購的較低氮含量天然氣進行混配。所以我們有很多不同的手段,Spiro,用來管理氮含量。而且我們還有幾招在手,但我不會在這通電話上透露。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    Keith Stanley,Wolfe Research。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • You recently got FERC approval to raise the capacity of the mid-scale trains, I think, by about 5 MTPA. How are you thinking about the potential to raise those capacities? And over what time frame could we think about this getting done?

    你們最近獲得FERC核准,把中型液化列車(mid-scale trains)的產能提高,我記得大約是增加5 MTPA。你們如何看待提升這些產能的潛力?以及大概在什麼時間範圍內可以完成?

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I'll start, and I'll let Zach chime in. So we've been spending a lot of time since Train 1 with figuring out different ways to debottleneck the mid-scale trains. It's a mixed refrigerant. There's 12 different refrigerants in the cocktail.

    是的。我先說,然後讓Zach補充。自從1號列車以來,我們花了很多時間研究各種方式來消除中型列車的瓶頸。這是一套混合冷媒(mixed refrigerant)系統。這個「雞尾酒」裡有12種不同的冷媒。

  • So our process engineers have come a long way in figuring out how to effectively mix the refrigerant to get the maximum amount of cooling out of the trains. And that's why you're seeing a big step-up in the production of the mid-scale trains. I would think process-wise, it would happen relatively soon.

    因此,我們的製程工程師在如何有效混配冷媒、以從列車中獲得最大冷卻量方面,已經進步很多。這也是你們看到中型列車產量大幅提升的原因。我認為就製程而言,這會相對很快發生。

  • We have a program where we take it slowly, and we work with the different equipment suppliers to make sure we don't exceed any one of their limits. But I would guess over the next year or so that we should have worked it through most of the mid-scale trains.

    我們有一個計畫是循序漸進地推進,並與不同設備供應商合作,確保我們不會超過任何一家供應商設備的限制。但我猜在接下來一年左右,我們應該就能在大多數中型列車上把這件事推進完成。

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'll just add. It comes back to -- even when we FID-ed mid-scale 8 to 9, it was the mid-scale 8 to 9 and debottlenecking project. So we were going to get 2 trains out of this, but incrementally more volume out of all of Stage 3 and mid-scale 8 to 9. And that's paying dividends and why we need to tee ourselves up to be able to produce at higher levels. This is allowing us to bring the cost per tonne down on these FIDs and hold to the 7x CapEx to EBITDA at $2.50 to $3 margin levels.

    我再補充一下。這回到——即使當初我們對中型8到9(mid-scale 8 to 9)做FID時,它就是「中型8到9加上去瓶頸(debottlenecking)專案」。所以我們會從中得到兩列車,但也會在第3期(Stage 3)以及中型8到9的所有設施上,逐步取得更多增量產量。而這正在帶來回報,也解釋了為什麼我們需要讓自己具備在更高水準生產的能力。這讓我們能在這些FID上把每噸成本降下來,並在每噸毛利$2.50到$3的水準下,維持7倍CapEx對EBITDA的目標。

  • What we're getting now is planning at even further ahead beyond mid-scale 8 to 9 and maybe some of the tricks up our sleeves or the debottlenecking projects that we're planning that could maybe fold in with CCL expansion Phase 1 because what it's going to take is not just an incremental train, but the advantages of being so brownfield and with the scale that we have to bring that cost per tonne down when inflation is real, and we're living in an environment where margins are in the long run, run rate in a stable fashion, $2.50 to $3.

    我們現在正在做的是把規劃再往更前面推,超越中型8到9,並思考也許我們手上還有的一些招數或正在規劃的去瓶頸專案,是否能與CCL擴建第一期(Phase 1)一起整合;因為所需要的不只是增加一列車,而是利用我們這麼多棕地(brownfield)優勢與既有規模,在通膨確實存在的情況下,把每噸成本降下來;而我們所處的環境是,長期而言、在穩定狀態下的常態毛利大約是$2.50到$3。

  • So this is all going in the right direction. More to come on that, and we'll see how much we can get out of the mid-scale trains and the large-scale trains as a whole.

    所以這一切都朝著正確方向前進。後續還會有更多資訊,我們也會看看整體而言,能從中型列車與大型列車中再榨出多少產能。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • And sorry, just to clarify, it sounds like this is maybe partially incorporated in your kind of run rate production forecast, but not fully. Is that fair?

    抱歉,我只是想確認一下,聽起來這可能已部分納入你們所謂的常態(run rate)產量預測,但還沒有完全納入。這樣理解對嗎?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. If you start going up to the high end of these approvals, but that's not baked in whatsoever.

    是的。如果你把產量拉到這些核准值的高端,那就不是完全反映在預測裡——完全沒有納入。

  • Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Second question, if you could just give a little more detail. The guidance uptick is very large at $650 million. Is there any way to think about how much of the upside is tied to higher margins in the back half of the year and the limited spot capacity you have versus optimization? And if a lot of it's optimization, can you just give some more color on the activities you executed on?

    好的。第二個問題,如果你能再多給一點細節。指引上修幅度很大,達到6.5億美元。有沒有什麼方式可以理解:這些上修中有多少與下半年更高的利差(margin)以及你們有限的現貨(spot)產能有關,相對於來自最佳化(optimization)的貢獻?如果很大一部分是最佳化,能否再多說明你們執行了哪些活動?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. I'll break it out in a pretty simple way. By adding 0.5 million tonnes to the production forecast, which gets you to the new guidance range, midpoint of 53.5 million tonnes from the previous midpoint of 53 million tonnes.

    當然。我用一個相當簡單的方式拆解。我們把產量預測增加了0.5百萬噸,讓新的指引區間中位數來到5,350萬噸,先前的中位數是5,300萬噸。

  • Just multiply that by $10 to $13 margins, and we're talking about $300 million added to the guidance just from the production increase. Then you go back to the less than 1 million tonnes or less than 50 TBtu that we had opened as of the last call and opportunistically putting that away.

    把這0.5百萬噸乘上每噸$10到$13的利差,我們談的就是僅因產量增加,就為指引增加了約3億美元。接著回到上次電話會議時,我們仍有不到100萬噸或不到50 TBtu的部位是開放的,我們把握機會把這些部位安排出去。

  • In addition, Henry Hub is up a little bit since then through the year, and that got us $200 million. And then optimization was $100 million to $150 million in the upside there.

    此外,Henry Hub自那之後到今年期間也小幅上升,這為我們帶來了2億美元。然後最佳化帶來的上行貢獻是1億到1.5億美元。

  • So if you put it all together, really production drove this. And I would say we're still down to less than 50 TBtu open. So there is some exposure to the current market in the forecast. But as we speak, we are locking in cargoes for this year, even working on locking in cargoes for next year. I think last call, I mentioned we had locked in around 1 million tonnes for next year.

    所以把全部加總起來,主要是產量驅動了這次上修。而我會說,我們目前仍只有不到50 TBtu是開放的。因此,在預測中仍有一些對當前市場的曝險。但就在我們通話的此刻,我們正在為今年鎖定貨船,甚至也在著手為明年鎖定貨船。我想上次電話會議我提到,我們已為明年鎖定了大約100萬噸。

  • That's probably up another 0.5 million tonnes in the last few months for next year as we see margins in the $8-plus range, well above run rate levels or where they were earlier in the year. So there's still some exposure there, but we're going to put it to bed. But why with such elevated margins, we kept to a $500 million range at this point in the year.

    這可能在過去幾個月又增加了約50萬噸,計入明年的部分,因為我們看到利潤率在8美元以上的區間,遠高於常態水準或今年稍早的水準。所以那裡仍然有一些曝險,但我們會把它處理完畢。但為什麼在利潤率如此高的情況下,我們在今年這個時間點仍維持在5億美元的區間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

    Jean Ann Salisbury,美國銀行。

  • Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Analyst

  • I just wanted to make sure I understood Zach's comments about the mark-to-market accounting change for 75% of the IPM volumes. I guess confirming that this new change has started with the 2Q net income number. And I don't know if you can like give us a sense of how much that could tighten the quarterly net income range in a volatile year such as this year or 2022?

    我只是想確認我理解 Zach 對於75%的 IPM 量採用市價評價(mark-to-market)會計變更的評論。我想確認這項新的變更已經反映在第二季的淨利數字中。另外我不確定你們是否能讓我們大概了解,在像今年或2022年這樣波動很大的年度,這會在多大程度上收斂每季淨利的區間?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. No, we're glad to have made that designation. That designation happened in mid-June. And as we all know, with the volatility and spike in prices in Q1 and then kind of moderating in Q2, a lot of that occurred by mid-June and why there was a large, unrealized gain in net income for Q2. But going forward, this will mitigate things.

    是的。不,我們很高興做出這項指定。這項指定是在6月中旬完成的。而且大家都知道,第一季價格波動與飆升,第二季又有所緩和,很多變化在6月中旬前就已發生,這也是為什麼第二季淨利中會出現一筆很大的未實現收益。但往後這將能緩解這些影響。

  • The market has evolved. There is more long-term gas supply deals in the United States or in North America that are not just priced off of Henry Hub, but off of global indices. And with the prevalence of those, it allowed us to make this exception.

    市場已經演變。在美國或北美,長期天然氣供應合約更多了,而且不再只是以 Henry Hub 定價,而是參考全球指數定價。隨著這類合約的普及,讓我們得以做出這項例外處理。

  • For deals that are delivered directly to our sites at Corpus and Sabine and they're not optimized and are basically passed through into LNG and sold at a global price. That's about six of the eight deals that we have. So 75%. And we ran some numbers like -- we've had two once-in-a-generation events in our industry since '21. And of those 22 quarters since '21, we've had six negative net income quarters because of unrealized derivatives.

    針對直接交付到我們 Corpus 與 Sabine 場址的合約,這些合約不做最佳化,基本上是直接轉入 LNG,並以全球價格出售。這大約是我們八筆合約中的六筆。也就是75%。我們也跑了一些數字——自2021年以來,我們產業已經歷兩次「一代一次」的事件。在自2021年以來的22個季度中,我們有六個季度因未實現衍生品損益而出現淨利為負。

  • That would have dropped down to two if we were able to make this designation earlier. So it definitely mitigates the volatility in our net income and is much more representative of who we are and of the stable fixed fee cash flow, that is the base of the business. So yes, less mark-to-market accounting occurring on our derivative and contracted positions going forward. So that should be clear to investors.

    如果我們能更早做出這項指定,那會降到兩個季度。所以這確實能降低我們淨利的波動性,也更能代表我們的本質,以及作為業務基礎的穩定固定費用現金流。所以是的,未來我們在衍生品與合約部位上採用市價評價會計的情況會更少。我想這點對投資人應該很清楚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Olivia Foster, Goldman Sachs.

    Olivia Foster,高盛。

  • Olivia Foster - Analyst

    Olivia Foster - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the maintenance outlook going forward, particularly given the strong volumes in the quarter. for this year, can you remind us the timing and scope of maintenance activities that were completed to address the feed gas composition quality variances that we had seen last year?

    我想詢問未來的維護展望,特別是考量本季出貨量很強。就今年而言,你們能否提醒我們,為了處理去年看到的進料氣(feed gas)組成品質差異所完成的維護作業,其時間點與範圍是什麼?

  • And then looking forward, how should we think about the timing for the next major maintenance turnarounds? Is there a possibility that there will be a major maintenance turnaround at Sabine or Corpus in 2027?

    然後往前看,我們應該如何看待下一次重大檢修(major maintenance turnaround)的時間安排?2027年 Sabine 或 Corpus 是否有可能進行一次重大檢修?

  • Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Zach Davis - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • All right. So we went into the year and made it pretty clear that we weren't going to have the same type of major maintenance that we had in '25 at Sabine that took out two trains for over half a month. So that alone was going to allow year over year Q2 to Q2 to be up on production.

    好的。所以我們在年初就講得很清楚,我們不會再有像2025年在 Sabine 那種規模的重大維護,當時讓兩座液化列車(train)停了超過半個月。光是這一點,就會讓今年第二季相較去年第二季的產量年增。

  • With that said, we had various planned maintenance scattered throughout the year as we were dealing with some of the resiliency efforts we wanted to take care of, considering what we went through in 2025 for feed gas variability and just some additional unplanned downtime that we had in '25.

    話雖如此,全年仍有各項分散的計畫性維護,因為我們在處理一些韌性提升(resiliency)工作,考量到我們在2025年因進料氣變動性,以及一些額外的非計畫性停機所經歷的狀況。

  • That's basically all going to be taken care of by the end of this month. We usually take care of those types of efforts in Q2 and Q3 besides regular planned maintenance here and there, but nothing at the scale of the major maintenance turnarounds that we have.

    這些基本上都會在本月底前處理完。我們通常會在第二季與第三季完成這類工作,除了零星的例行計畫性維護之外,但不會達到我們所說的重大檢修那種規模。

  • So that's almost behind us for this year. And part of the reason why we were able to increase guidance on production and have the confidence to tighten it. Going forward, next year, we will give you more insight on our production profile for 2027 on the next call.

    所以今年這部分幾乎已經過去了。這也是我們能夠上調產量指引並有信心把區間收斂的原因之一。往後,明年我們會在下一次電話會議提供更多關於2027年產量曲線的資訊。

  • But when you have nine trains and eventually nine mid-scale trains all up and running, there's always going to be planned maintenance and almost always going to be major maintenance.

    但當你有九座液化列車,並且最終九座中型列車(mid-scale trains)都全面運轉時,總是會有計畫性維護,而且幾乎總是會有重大維護。

  • With that said, the trains are running quite well. And we've been able to optimize those major maintenances over time and spread them out a bit further than originally budgeted. And that's going to be a tailwind going forward in '27 and beyond. So more to come on that, but next year will be the first year with all of Stage 3 up and running. So we've given guidance that it's kind of in the mid-50s when we have Stage 3 up and running.

    話雖如此,這些列車運轉得相當好。而且我們隨著時間推進,已能把重大維護最佳化,並把間隔拉得比原先預算規劃更長一些。這將在2027年及之後成為一股順風。所以後續還會有更多資訊,但明年將是第三階段(Stage 3)全面投運的第一年。我們已給出的指引是,當第三階段全面投運時,大概在50多(mid-50s)的水準。

  • And there's nothing holding that back. And with the work that we've done this year, we'll see what type of guidance we can give you in November.

    而且沒有任何因素會阻礙這件事。再加上我們今年所做的工作,我們會看看11月能給你們什麼樣的指引。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

    以上就是我們今天的問答環節。我想把電話會議交回給簡報人員,請他們做任何補充或結語。

  • Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jack Fusco - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, this is Jack. I just want to say thank you all for your support and for your attention to Cheniere.

    我是 Jack。我只想說,感謝各位對 Cheniere 的支持與關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    再次提醒,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。