Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lumentum Holdings Third Quarter Year 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded for replay purposes. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Lumentum Holdings 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議將進行錄音，以便回放。 （操作說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Kathy Ta, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Ta, please go ahead.

現在，我將把電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁凱西·塔女士。塔女士，請開始吧。

Thank you, and welcome to Lumentum's Fiscal Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Kathy Ta, Lumentum's Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Alan Lowe, President and Chief Executive Officer; Wajid Ali, Chief Financial Officer; and Chris Coldren, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Lumentum 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Lumentum 投資者關係副總裁 Kathy Ta。今天與我一同出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Alan Lowe、財務長 Wajid Ali 以及資深副總裁兼首席策略與企業發展長 Chris Coldren。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our expectations and beliefs regarding synergies of recent acquisitions, including NeoPhotonics, financial and operating results, macroeconomic trends, trends and expectations for our products and technology, our end markets, market opportunities and customers and our expected financial performance, including our guidance as well as statements regarding our future revenues, financial model and margin targets.

今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性聲明，包括關於我們對近期收購（包括 NeoPhotonics）的協同效應的預期和信念、財務和營運業績、宏觀經濟趨勢、我們產品和技術的趨勢和預期、我們的終端市場、市場機會和客戶以及我們預期的財務業績（包括我們的指導）的聲明，以及關於我們未來收入、財務模型和利潤率目標的聲明。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations, particularly the risk factors described in our SEC filings. We encourage you to review our most recent filings with the SEC, including the risk factors described in the quarterly report on Form 10-Q to be filed for the quarter ended April 1, 2023.

這些聲明受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異，特別是我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中所述的風險因素。我們建議您查閱我們最近提交給SEC的文件，包括將於2023年4月1日截止的季度報告（10-Q表格）中所述的風險因素。

The forward-looking statements provided during this call are based on Lumentum's reasonable beliefs and expectations as of today. Lumentum undertakes no obligation to update these statements, except as required by applicable law. Please also note that unless otherwise stated, all financial results and projections discussed in this call are non-GAAP. Non-GAAP financials are not to be considered as a substitute for or superior to financials prepared in accordance with GAAP. Lumentum's press release with the fiscal third quarter 2023 results and accompanying supplemental slides are available on our website at www.lumentum.com under the Investors section.

本次電話會議中提供的前瞻性陳述是基於 Lumentum 截至今日的合理信念和預期。除適用法律要求外，Lumentum 不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。另請注意，除非另有說明，本次電話會議中討論的所有財務業績和預測均為非公認會計準則 (非 GAAP) 財務數據。非 GAAP 財務數據不應被視為替代或優於根據 GAAP 編制的財務數據。 Lumentum 2023 財年第三季業績新聞稿及相關補充投影片可在本公司網站 www.lumentum.com 的「投資者關係」欄位下查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Alan.

這樣，我就把電話交給艾倫了。

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Third quarter results were within the range we announced in April, and we believe we are currently under shipping end market demand across our business. Customers who had built up large inventories due to supply concerns are bringing down inventories as supply risks and constraints are easing. I'm confident about our overall competitiveness and market share position in our optical communications and commercial lasers segment and believe that mid- to long-term demand trends are very favorable.

謝謝凱西，大家早安。第三季業績符合我們四月公佈的預期範圍，我們認為目前我們整個業務的終端市場出貨量都低於需求。由於供應擔憂而囤積大量庫存的客戶，隨著供應風險和限制的緩解，正在減少庫存。我對我們在光通訊和商用雷射領域的整體競爭力和市場份額充滿信心，並相信中長期需求趨勢非常樂觀。

Data traffic will continue to grow at a relentless rate, and networks and data centers will need to keep pace with a double-digit increase in data capacity each year. Lumentum's ability to both functionally and vertically integrate Photonics is a key differentiator for us and will enable our customers in the coming carrier and spatial division multiplexing era as more and more optical fiber is led up across the globe.

數據流量將持續高速成長，網路和數據中心需要跟上每年兩位數的數據容量成長步伐。 Lumentum在光子學領域的功能和垂直整合能力是我們的關鍵優勢，隨著全球光纖網路的持續鋪設，這將幫助我們的客戶在即將到來的載波復用和太空復用時代取得成功。

New automotive solid-state LiDAR and industrial applications are emerging for Photonics, where we lead in reliability, performance and manufacturing scale. Our commercial lasers business is expanding beyond our traditional applications into high-growth areas such as solar cell, advanced semiconductor, electric vehicle and display manufacturing.

新型汽車固態雷射雷達和工業應用正在湧現，而我們在光子學領域擁有可靠性、性能和製造規模方面的領先優勢。我們的商用雷射業務正從傳統應用領域拓展到太陽能電池、先進半導體、電動車和顯示器製造等高成長領域。

In the nearer term, we are prioritizing expense controls, accelerated attainment of acquisition synergies and cash generation, while we continue to deliver on new product and technology road maps and customer satisfaction.

短期內，我們將優先控製成本、加快收購協同效應和創造現金流，同時繼續推進新產品和技術路線圖，並提高客戶滿意度。

Now let me provide some detail on our third quarter results. Telecom and datacom revenue was down 24% sequentially, but up 20% year-on-year, with sequential declines across most major product lines due to customer inventory digestion. IC supply did not significantly limit our revenue during the quarter.

現在讓我詳細介紹一下我們第三季的業績。電信和數據通訊業務收入環比下降24%，但年增20%，其中大多數主要產品線環比下降是由於客戶庫存消化所致。積體電路供應在本季並未對我們的收入造成顯著影響。

While there is a mixed outlook among our markets and product lines, current visibility indicates that telecom and datacom demand will start to recover from this customer inventory correction late in the second half of the calendar 2023. We have a growing set of cable MSO and wireless network customers that are turning to our tunable access modules to expand data bandwidth in metro access, fiber deep and wireless 5G Fronthaul applications. This is a significant multi-hundred million dollar per year market opportunity for us, which we expect will play out over the coming years.

儘管各市場和產品線的前景不盡相同，但目前的市場跡象表明，電信和數據通訊需求將在2023年下半年末開始從客戶庫存調整中復甦。我們擁有越來越多的有線電視營運商和無線網路客戶，他們正在轉向使用我們的可調式存取模組來擴展城域存取、光纖到戶和無線5G前傳應用中的資料頻寬。這為我們帶來了每年數億美元的巨大市場機遇，我們預計這一機會將在未來幾年內逐步顯現。

In the third quarter, revenue from these products grew 17% sequentially and doubled year-on-year to a new quarterly revenue record. Our new 25G tunable access module will be a key enabler for customers upgrading legacy fiber nodes in metro access networks, leveraging next-generation distributed access architecture. However, as we transition customers from 10G to 25G in the coming quarters, we may see some revenue lumpiness. Our advanced ROADMs are key enablers of our customers' next-generation network architectures that are just starting to be deployed, giving us confidence in continued market share growth and future demand.

第三季度，這些產品的營收季增17%，年增一倍，創下新的季度營收紀錄。我們全新的25G可調式接取模組將成為客戶升級城域接取網路中傳統光纖節點、利用下一代分散式接取架構的關鍵推動因素。然而，隨著未來幾季客戶從10G向25G過渡，我們可能會看到一些收入波動。我們先進的ROADM是客戶下一代網路架構的關鍵推動因素，這些架構目前正處於部署初期，這讓我們對市場份額的持續成長和未來的需求充滿信心。

While third quarter ROADM revenue was down sequentially due to the customer inventory digestion I discussed previously, it was up from the same quarter last year. Year-over-year growth was driven by broader adoption of next-generation ROADMs by market-leading customers, along with improved IC supply. The adoption of coherent pluggable modules by network operators is another significant long-term opportunity for us.

儘管由於先前提到的客戶庫存消化，第三季 ROADM 收入環比下降，但較去年同期有所增長。年比成長主要得益於市場領先客戶對新一代 ROADM 的廣泛採用，以及 IC 供應的改善。網路營運商對相干可插拔模組的採用，對我們來說是另一個重要的長期機會。

We are highly vertically integrated across the photonics and electronic components that enable high-speed pluggable form factors. At OFC, our 800G ZR product demo was very well received by our customers. Cloud data centers are being designed to support artificial intelligence and machine learning applications, which bodes well for us as we extend our technology leadership to an even broader array of products that enable higher capacity and lower power consumption and latency as we highlighted at OFC.

我們在光子學和電子元件領域實現了高度垂直整合，從而能夠實現高速可插拔外形設計。在OFC展會上，我們的800G ZR產品展示受到了客戶的熱烈歡迎。雲端資料中心的設計旨在支援人工智慧和機器學習應用，這對我們來說是一個好兆頭，因為我們可以將技術領先優勢擴展到更廣泛的產品領域，從而實現更高的容量、更低的功耗和更低的延遲，正如我們在OFC展會上重點展示的那樣。

We are on track with our 200 gig per lane EMLs for 800 gig and 1.6 terabit per second application and expect to enter production in the second half of calendar 2023 and ramp throughout calendar 2024. Our high-speed VCSELs are starting to be deployed for short-reach connections within data centers where optical communications are replacing copper connections due to data speed requirements.

我們針對 800 Gb/s 和 1.6 Tb/s 應用的 200 Gb/s EML 晶片正按計畫推進，預計將於 2023 年下半年投入生產，並在 2024 年全面提升產能。我們的高速 VCSEL 晶片也開始應用於資料中心的短距離連接，在這些連接中，由於資料傳輸速度的要求，光通訊正在逐步取代銅纜連接。

Also, as we highlighted at OFC, Lumentum is uniquely positioned to develop new photonics solutions, including high-power laser array engines in coordination with leaders in the high-performance computing market. Given the fast pace of innovation and the increasing demands placed on photonics technologies, we expect that the photonics market for AI will rapidly grow, reaching the size of the existing Ethernet photonics market within the next 5 years.

此外，正如我們在OFC上所強調的那樣，Lumentum擁有獨特的優勢，能夠與高效能運算市場的領導者合作，開發包括高功率雷射陣列引擎在內的新型光子解決方案。鑑於創新步伐的加快以及對光子技術日益增長的需求，我們預計人工智慧光子市場將快速成長，並在未來5年內達到現有乙太網路光子市場的規模。

Turning to Industrial and Consumer. Q3 was down from Q2 and down year-over-year as expected due to smartphone seasonality and end market demand. Beyond the smartphone market, we continue to ramp new automotive and industrial sensing applications for an expanding set of customers.

再來看工業和消費品業務。如預期，由於智慧型手機的季節性波動和終端市場需求下降，第三季業績較上季第二季及年比均下滑。除了智慧型手機市場，我們也持續為不斷擴大的客戶群開發新的汽車和工業感測應用。

Third quarter revenue had approximately $3 million of automotive-related applications. Our current automotive revenue reflects significant contributions from early adopters of automotive LiDAR in China. Recent engagements with a global set of Tier 1 customers gives us confidence in new LiDAR revenue opportunities over the coming years as well as our confidence in our ability to significantly grow our revenue in this market.

第三季營收中約有300萬美元來自汽車相關應用。我們目前的汽車業務營收主要得益於中國早期採用汽車光達技術的客戶的貢獻。近期與全球一級客戶的合作讓我們對未來幾年雷射雷達業務的新營收機會充滿信心，也讓我們有信心在該市場實現營收的顯著成長。

We expect our fiscal year '24 3D sensing revenue will be lower than that of fiscal '23 due to our expectations around 3D sensing end market demand, pricing and the possibility of an additional competitor on a certain socket opportunity in fiscal '24.

我們預計，由於我們對 3D 感測終端市場需求、定價以及 2024 財年某些介面機會可能出現新的競爭對手的預期，2024 財年的 3D 感測收入將低於 2023 財年。

In the third quarter, commercial lasers revenue was down 16% sequentially and down 6% from the same quarter last year. We achieved over 70% year-on-year growth in ultrafast laser revenue, which was more than offset by lower fiber and solid-state laser shipments. Our growth in ultrafast lasers is being driven by new applications, particularly in solar cell manufacturing. We expect that as these new laser applications grow, we will gain further share in ultrafast lasers.

第三季度，商用雷射收入季減16%，年減6%。超快雷射營收年增超過70%，但光纖雷射和固態雷射出貨量下降抵消了這一成長。超快雷射業務的成長主要得益於新應用領域的拓展，尤其是在太陽能電池製造方面。我們預計，隨著這些新型雷射應用的不斷發展，我們將進一步擴大在超快雷射市場的份額。

Based on the latest customer forecast, we expect commercial lasers demand to be softer over the next several quarters due to the macro factors impacting end market and customer inventory digestion. Although we expect the overall demand environment is likely to be challenging in the near term, I'm very confident about Lumentum's mid- to long-term prospects given fundamental end market and technology trends driving our growth expectations are unchanged.

根據最新的客戶預測，由於影響終端市場的宏觀因素以及客戶庫存消化，我們預計未來幾季商用雷射的需求將會疲軟。儘管我們預期短期內整體需求環境可能充滿挑戰，但鑑於推動我們成長預期的基本終端市場和技術趨勢保持不變，我對 Lumentum 的中長期前景非常有信心。

Lumentum is uniquely positioned to serve our customers at scale with our functional and vertical integration capabilities, our robust pipeline of design wins and leading product road maps, and we have financial and structural resilience built into our business model. In the near term, we are focused on expense controls while maintaining crucial R&D to continue to drive the forefront of innovation.

憑藉強大的功能和垂直整合能力、豐富的成功設計專案儲備和領先的產品路線圖，Lumentum 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠大規模地為客戶提供服務。此外，我們的商業模式也具備穩健的財務和結構。短期內，我們將專注於控製成本，同時保持關鍵的研發投入，以繼續引領創新前沿。

Before turning it over to Wajid, I would like to thank our employees around the world for their focus and dedication as they continue to execute upon our strategy. With that, Wajid?

在把發言權交給瓦吉德之前，我想感謝我們全球各地的員工，感謝他們為繼續執行我們的策略所付出的專注和奉獻。瓦吉德，你來說呢？

Thank you, Alan. Net revenue for the third quarter was $383.4 million, which was down 24.2% sequentially and down 3% year-on-year. During the quarter, we had 2 greater than 10% customers, both in the telecom market, and there were no 10% customers in the consumer market.

謝謝艾倫。第三季淨收入為3.834億美元，季減24.2%，年減3%。本季度，我們有兩家客戶佔比超過10%，均來自電信市場；消費市場沒有客戶佔超過10%。

GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 29.2%, GAAP operating loss was 13.4% and GAAP diluted net loss per share was $0.57. Third quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 40.8%, which was down sequentially and year-on-year, primarily driven by product mix and lower revenue. IC purchases at third-party brokers declined to nominal levels in the quarter.

第三季GAAP毛利率為29.2%，GAAP營業虧損為13.4%，GAAP攤薄後每股淨虧損0.57美元。第三季非GAAP毛利率為40.8%，較上季及年比均下降，主要受產品組合變動及收入下降的影響。本季透過第三方經紀商進行的IC採購量降至極低水準。

Third quarter non-GAAP operating margin was 13.4%, which decreased sequentially and year-on-year due to product mix and lower revenue. Third quarter non-GAAP operating income was $51.4 million and adjusted EBITDA was $77 million. Third quarter non-GAAP operating expenses totaled $104.9 million or 27.4% of revenue. Non-GAAP operating expenses were down $5.4 million from Q2 with tight expense controls and synergies that more than offset seasonal increases in operating expenses. Q3 non-GAAP SG&A expense was $42.8 million, non-GAAP R&D expense was $62.1 million. Interest and other income was $9.2 million on a non-GAAP basis due to higher interest rates on our cash and investments.

第三季非GAAP營業利益率為13.4%，較上季及年比均下降，主要原因是產品組合變動及收入減少。第三季非GAAP營業收入為5,140萬美元，調整後EBITDA為7,700萬美元。第三季非GAAP營業費用總計1.049億美元，佔營收的27.4%。由於嚴格的費用控制和綜效，非GAAP營業費用較第二季減少540萬美元，足以抵銷季節性營業費用的成長。第三季非GAAP銷售、管理及行政費用為4,280萬美元，非GAAP研發費用為6,210萬美元。由於現金和投資的利率上升，非GAAP利息及其他收入為920萬美元。

Third quarter non-GAAP net income was $51.8 million and non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.75. Our fully diluted share count for the third quarter was 68.7 million shares on a non-GAAP basis. Our non-GAAP tax rate remains at 14.5%.

第三季非GAAP淨利為5,180萬美元，非GAAP攤薄後每股淨利為0.75美元。第三季非GAAP攤薄後股份總數為6,870萬股。非GAAP稅率維持在14.5%。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.67 billion in cash and short-term investments. To accelerate the integration of NeoPhotonics products into our global manufacturing footprint and attain synergies without impacting customer deliveries, we plan to carry elevated inventories for a period of time. However, we expect inventories to decline by approximately $40 million exiting calendar year 2023 as we continue to focus on cash generation. Also, we expect a moderation in CapEx spending over the next few quarters.

接下來看一下資產負債表。本季末，我們持有現金及短期投資共16.7億美元。為了加快將NeoPhotonics產品整合到我們的全球生產佈局中，並在不影響客戶交付的前提下實現協同效應，我們計劃在一段時間內維持較高的庫存水準。然而，隨著我們持續專注於現金流的創造，預計到2023年底，庫存將減少約4,000萬美元。此外，我們預計未來幾季的資本支出將放緩。

Turning to segment details. Third quarter optical communications segment revenue at $335.1 million decreased 25.3% sequentially, primarily driven by the inventory dynamics that Alan already discussed. Optical communications segment non-GAAP gross margin at 40.8% decreased sequentially and year-on-year, primarily due to lower revenue and the impact of NeoPhotonics' product margins.

接下來是分部績效詳情。第三季光通訊業務營收為3.351億美元，季減25.3%，主要受Alan先前提到的庫存變動影響。光通訊業務的非GAAP毛利率為40.8%，環比和年比均有所下降，主要原因是收入減少以及NeoPhotonics產品利潤率的影響。

Our third quarter laser segment revenue at $48.3 million, was down 15.6% sequentially and down 5.7% year-on-year. Third quarter lasers gross margin of 40.4% was down sequentially and year-on-year, primarily due to an inventory reserve due to a fiber laser product transition and lower volumes. We expect product margins in lasers to recover after shipments fully shifted to the new laser platform and manufacturing volumes return.

第三季雷射業務營收為4,830萬美元，季減15.6%，年減5.7%。第三季雷射業務毛利率為40.4%，環比和年比均有所下降，主要原因是光纖雷射產品過渡期間提列了庫存準備金以及銷量下降。我們預計，隨著出貨量全面轉向新的雷射平台以及生產量恢復正常，雷射業務的毛利率將會回升。

Now let me move to our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which is on a non-GAAP basis and is based on our assumptions as of today. We expect net revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 to be in the range of $350 million to $380 million. Within this Q4 revenue forecast, we anticipate modest growth in telecom and datacom to be offset by a decline in industrial and consumer. We expect fourth quarter lasers revenue to be approximately flat with the third quarter.

現在，我將介紹我們對2023財年第四季的業績指引，該指引基於非GAAP準則，並基於我們截至目前為止的假設。我們預計2023財年第四季的淨收入將在3.5億美元至3.8億美元之間。在這一第四季營收預測中，我們預期電信和數據通訊業務的溫和成長將被工業和消費業務的下滑所抵消。我們預計第四季雷射業務的收入將與第三季基本持平。

Based on this, we project fourth quarter operating margin to be in the range of 8.5% to 11.5% and diluted net income per share to be in the range of $0.45 to $0.65. Our non-GAAP EPS guidance for the fourth quarter is based on a non-GAAP annual effective tax rate of 14.5%. These projections also assume an approximate share count of 69 million shares.

基於此，我們預期第四季營業利潤率將在8.5%至11.5%之間，稀釋後每股淨收益將在0.45美元至0.65美元之間。我們對第四季度非GAAP每股收益的預測是基於14.5%的非GAAP年度有效稅率。這些預測也假設股份數量約為6900萬股。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Kathy to start the Q&A session. Kathy?

那麼，我把電話轉回給凱西，開始問答環節。凱西？

Thank you, Wajid. (Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

謝謝你，瓦吉德。 （操作員指示）現在我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Simon Leopold。

I'm curious (inaudible) going on in the telecom and datacom segment, and let me explain what I'm looking for here is you were supply chain constrained during much of 2022, particularly I recall ROADMs because we couldn't get the FPGA. So I guess I'm trying to get a better sense of how much inventory your customers can be holding. And what's the composition within the segment of that inventory? Is it all pluggables, mixture? Help us understand that.

我對電信和數據通訊領域的情況很感興趣（聽不清楚），我想了解的是，你們在2022年的大部分時間裡都面臨供應鏈瓶頸，尤其是我記得當時ROADM（遠端應用開發模組），因為我們無法取得FPGA。所以我想更了解你們客戶的庫存情況。以及這些庫存的組成是什麼？全部都是可插拔產品，還是混合產品？請幫我們了解一下。

Yes. Simon, it's broad with respect to the inventory at our customers from our perspective as indicated by what we forecast to ship in the June quarter and what we think we're going to be shipping in the second half of the calendar year. So I wouldn't say it's any one particular product line, although I would say that, to your point, ROADMs and ROADM line cards were constrained heavily over the past year, and that's where I think a lot of inventory was built up. And therefore, a reduction, as we indicated in the script in our ROADM revenue and ROADM line card revenue in the March quarter, we expect that to continue into the June quarter and beyond.

是的。西蒙，從我們的角度來看，這涉及到我們客戶的庫存情況，範圍很廣，正如我們預測的六月份季度出貨量以及我們預計下半年的出貨量所顯示的那樣。所以我不會說是某個特定的產品線的問題，不過正如你所說，過去一年ROADM和ROADM產品線卡的供應非常緊張，我認為很多庫存都積壓在這裡。因此，正如我們在三月季度的ROADM收入和ROADM產品線卡收入中所提到的，我們預計這種下降趨勢將持續到六月季度及以後。

As supply constraints have been relieved and customers know they can get the product, I think they're very comfortable now lowering their inventory levels to reflect the actual sell-through to their customers. And so, as we said also, we believe we are dramatically under-shipping end market demand. And as that happens over the next couple of quarters or so, we'll get to an equilibrium where we'll start shipping again to end market demand as our customers' inventories normalize.

隨著供應限制的緩解，客戶也知道他們能夠獲得產品，我認為他們現在很樂意降低庫存水平，以反映實際的銷售情況。因此，正如我們之前所說，我們認為我們的出貨量嚴重低於終端市場需求。在接下來的幾個季度裡，隨著這種情況的持續，我們將達到一個平衡點，屆時隨著客戶庫存的恢復正常，我們將再次開始滿足終端市場需求。

And then just as my follow (inaudible) preannouncement, and that looked much lighter than we expected. I know you had guided some sequential decline, but nonetheless, this is a market that had been holding up. So I'd like to see if you could talk about what's changed there? And how long does this relative weakness in commercial lasers last in your view?

正如我之前預告的那樣（聽不清楚），市場行情比我們預期的要好得多。我知道您之前預測市場會持續下跌，但即便如此，這個市場先前一直保持著堅挺。所以我想請您談談市場發生了什麼變化？您認為商用雷射市場的這種相對疲軟狀態會持續多久？

Yes, Simon, as we also highlighted, the ultrafast laser business is going very well, 70% year-on-year growth as we get into new markets. I'd say the slowness came from a couple of areas, one of which is the transition we talked about in the fiber laser but also headwinds in the overall semiconductor demand industry. So in the semiconductor industry as we supply solid-state razors into processing and semiconductor. So that's some softening that we see as well.

是的，西蒙，正如我們之前提到的，超快雷射業務發展非常順利，隨著我們進軍新市場，年增長率高達70%。我認為成長放緩的原因有兩個，一是我們之前討論過的光纖雷射轉型，二是整個半導體產業需求的不利因素。例如，我們為加工和半導體產業供應固態雷射產品，因此半導體產業的需求也出現了一些疲軟。

Our next question comes from Samik from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的薩米克。

I guess, Alan, you mentioned even in the last response in your prepared remarks that you believe you're under-shipping to demand. And I wanted to get your thoughts around sort of how do you think about sort of the right run rate. What is the sort of right level of demand right now? How much do you believe you're under-shipping related to that? And maybe just extending that, you're saying second half will have a recovery. Is that essentially the math that you're doing in terms of how much you're under-shipping and how much inventory you're digesting gets you to that sort of second half recovery? Or is that what your customers are telling you? And I have a follow-up.

艾倫，我想，你在上次的回覆中，也就是你準備好的發言稿裡，也提到你認為目前的供貨量低於市場需求。我想了解一下你對合適的供貨量有什麼看法。你認為目前合適的市場需求水準是多少？你覺得目前的供貨量與需求水準之間的差距有多大？另外，你提到下半年市場會復甦。你是根據目前的供貨量和庫存消化情況來計算下半年的復甦情況的嗎？還是你的客戶回饋的？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. I think it's hard to say how much we're under-shipping, although clearly, the reduction in revenue in the March quarter tells us we are under-shipping relative to end customer demand. And we expect that as our customers announce their earnings in the coming quarters, their inventory levels will come down over time. And so that's an indicator of under-shipping end market demand.

當然。雖然很難說我們究竟缺口有多大，但很明顯，三月季度的收入下降表明，相對於終端客戶的需求，我們的出貨量確實不足。我們預計，隨著客戶在未來幾季陸續公佈財報，他們的庫存水準也會隨之下降。因此，庫存水準下降也是終端市場需求缺口的指標。

Although visibility is not perfectly clear for us, I'd say that we believe that a couple of quarters of this under shipping should then alleviate that -- those elevated inventory levels. So that as we exit the calendar year, we're more shipping in to our customers what they're shipping out, and that's what gives us confidence of getting back to a more normalized level of shipments through the -- towards the end of the calendar year.

儘管我們目前對前景並不完全清楚，但我們認為，如果能維持幾季的低出貨量，應該就能緩解庫存過高的問題。這樣，到年底時，我們就能更好地將發貨量恢復到客戶的正常水平，這讓我們有信心在年底前將發貨量恢復到正常水平。

Okay. Got it. And just a follow-up on industrial and consumer. Based on your guidance for the fourth quarter, you're implying most of the sequential decline in revenue at your midpoint comes from that segment. That would put you at one of the lowest revenues you've done in that segment sort of going back quite a few years. Is that -- again, you're thinking about sort of in sell-through for the primary customer you have being weaker? Or is this more again a reflection of inventory digestion even at this customer that's probably impacting you in that -- in the coming -- in this quarter and the fiscal fourth quarter?

好的，明白了。關於工業和消費品業務，我還有一個後續問題。根據您對第四季的業績指引，您暗示中期營收季減的大部分來自該業務板塊。這將使該業務板塊的營收達到近幾年來的最低水準之一。您是認為主要客戶的銷售情況疲軟導致的嗎？還是說，這更反映了該客戶的庫存消化情況，並可能對本季以及整個第四財季的業績產生影響？

Samik, this is Chris. I would say what's most important to keep in mind in 3D sensing when you're looking at prior years is obviously the share normalization that we've highlighted previously. That's a very significant driver of reduction year-over-year and relative to the past. On top of that, obviously, end market and pricing a bit. I don't think there's anything else that we can really comment on -- on particulars around or quantifying end market at this time.

薩米克，我是克里斯。在回顧往年數據時，我認為在3D感測領域最需要關注的顯然是我們之前強調過的份額正常化。這是導致同比和同比下降的一個重要因素。除此之外，終端市場和定價因素也會產生一定影響。目前，關於終端市場的具體細節或量化分析，我們暫時沒有其他可以評論的內容。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson from Needham.

下一個問題來自尼德姆的亞歷克斯·亨德森。

So I wanted to delve into the AI commentary you made. Obviously, that's one of the bright spots in the commentary. And try to understand the scope of the products that you have that allow you to compete in that market. Are you able to compete into just the Ethernet side? Or are you able to also compete into the InfiniBand side of it? Is the VCSEL copper replacement part of that? And how rapidly do you think that business will grow to offset any pressures in traditional datacom?

所以我想深入探討您對人工智慧的評論。顯然，這是評論中的亮點之一。我想了解您目前的產品範圍，以及它們如何讓您在這個市場中競爭。您能否只在乙太網路領域競爭？還是也能在InfiniBand領域競爭？ VCSEL銅纜替代方案是否也包含在內？您認為這項業務的成長速度會有多快，才能抵銷傳統數據通訊領域的壓力？

Yes. Thanks, Alex. This is Chris. Let me tackle that. I would say you got to think of this in time frames that, in the nearer term, the next quarters, it's really driving volumes, if you will, of our existing products or new products to be launched. As you highlighted, VCSELs -- 100-gig per lane VCSELs that will be in mass production here soon. That will be a copper replacement as well as the 200-gig per lane EMLs and helping to accelerate digestion of inventory that's already built. So that's of our products that are already out there. So that's the next couple of quarters.

是的，謝謝Alex。我是Chris，讓我來解答一下。我認為你需要從時間維度來考慮這個問題。在短期內，也就是接下來的幾個季度，這確實會推動我們現有產品或即將推出的新產品的銷售成長。正如你所提到的，VCSEL——即將量產的100G/通道VCSEL——將取代銅纜，同時還有200G/通道EML，它們將有助於加速消化我們已有的庫存。以上是我們目前已上市的產品，也是接下來幾季的重點。

As we look to the next few years, what you're referencing is there's new architectures that customers or new customers, let's say, are seeking to launch that are intensive with new optical architectures. I think we went through some of this at our OFC presentation where we are co-developing solutions with, let's say, players that are leading not traditionally in the networking side, but maybe more traditionally in AI and compute side of things for next-generation data centers. So there's kind of a couple of waves of product intersects for us.

展望未來幾年，您提到的是，客戶或新客戶正在尋求推出一些全新的架構，這些架構需要大量採用新型光纖架構。我認為我們在OFC展會上也討論過這方面的內容，我們正在與一些並非傳統網路領域領先，而是在人工智慧和運算領域（例如下一代資料中心）佔據主導地位的廠商合作開發解決方案。因此，我們面臨幾波產品融合的浪潮。

So just going back to the original question. When do you think that really kicks in as a primary driver? Is it tens of millions of dollars of revenue in the back half of the calendar year? Or is this something that takes a lot longer to ramp?

回到最初的問題。你認為它什麼時候才能真正成為主要驅動力？是在下半年實現數千萬美元的收入嗎？還是說這需要更長的時間才能逐步實現？

I think the back half of the calendar year will really be still in a phase of inventory digestion on existing products. I think the new stuff we're talking about is more 1 to 2 years out. But going back to the existing products, as we get into calendar '24, then I think we'll really see a reacceleration in the existing products, given the inventory should be burned off at that point in time.

我認為下半年仍將處於現有產品庫存消化階段。我們討論的新產品預計還要一到兩年才能上市。但回到現有產品，到了2024年，鑑於屆時庫存應該已經消化完畢，我認為現有產品的成長速度將會再次加快。

If I could just insert one last question. The inventory reserve that you mentioned that was in the non-GAAP numbers, what was the size of that?

如果可以的話，我再問最後一個問題。您提到的包含在非GAAP財務資料中的存貨準備金，具體金額為何？

Alex, it was approximately $4 million.

亞歷克斯，大約是400萬美元。

Our next question comes from Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

Alan, maybe I just wanted to kind of get a sense from you, kind of coming back to Samik's question just about we're not only seeing kind of the over-ordering the system vendors may have done for you guys to build inventory, but their customers also kind of over ordered for supply chain issues as well on their part. And so just how are you judging how much kind of end demand there is, I guess, given that there could -- or just the duration of this inventory digestion period just given some of the over-ordering that the system vendors might have seen as well?

艾倫，我只是想從你那裡了解一下，回到薩米克的問題，我們不僅看到系統供應商為了建立庫存而可能超額訂購，而且他們的客戶也因為供應鏈問題而超額訂購。那麼，考慮到系統供應商可能出現的超額訂購，你如何判斷最終需求量，或者說，考慮到庫存消化期可能持續的時間？

Yes, Meta, it's hard for me to comment on what our customers are seeing. I can comment on what we're seeing from our customers, and that is products where there is strong demand and deployments we're continuing to ship where there wasn't a buildup of inventory. But where there was, and I think where there was fear of inability to get enough product for when their customers needed it, we're seeing now that since the supply chains have eased that those inventory levels are coming down through this under-shipping of what we believe end market demand is.

是的，Meta，我很難評論我們客戶的具體情況。但我可以談談我們從客戶那裡了解到的情況，那就是在需求強勁且部署持續進行、沒有出現庫存積壓的情況下，我們仍在繼續發貨。但在先前出現庫存積壓的情況下，我認為客戶擔心無法及時獲得足夠的產品，但現在隨著供應鏈的緩解，我們看到這些庫存水準正在下降，這主要是由於我們減少了發貨量，低於我們認為的終端市場需求。

So beyond that, it's hard to say. I would say though, however, that we're very confident in our share position, in our new product design funnel and our new product wins with our customers. So that gives us confidence that as this inventory gets burned off over the next few quarters that we'll be in a position to ship at end market demand, and we believe that there are still fundamental drivers that will drive end market demand to use these new products and continue to drive revenue growth for us as we get into calendar '24 and beyond.

除此之外，很難說。不過，我可以肯定地說，我們對目前的市場份額、新產品設計流程以及新產品贏得客戶的認可都充滿信心。因此，我們相信，隨著未來幾季庫存的逐步消化，我們將能夠滿足終端市場的需求。我們也相信，仍有一些基本因素將推動終端市場對這些新產品的需求，並持續推動我們在2024年及以後的營收成長。

Got it. And just as a follow-up question, I noted your commentary about fiscal '24 had been lower than fiscal '23 on 3D sensing. Are there just -- is there a general estimate just on kind of what the cumulative effect of pricing and share normalization and just kind of end market demand would lead to in fiscal '24 over fiscal '23 in 3D sensing?

明白了。還有一個後續問題，我注意到您之前評論說2024財年3D感測業務的業績低於2023財年。請問，對於2024財年3D感測業務的業績，價格、市佔率正常化以及終端市場需求等因素的綜合影響，是否有一個大致的預估？

Meta, yes, I think it's a little premature to guide the full year on 3D sensing at this point. I think the key point here is, as we highlighted in the prepared remarks, that end market demand, prices go down year-over-year. And the likelihood or potential for a new competitor on one of the sockets that we've led on in the past, all suggest that it will be down year-over-year.

Meta，是的，我認為現在就對全年3D感測業務做出預測還為時過早。我認為關鍵在於，正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所強調的那樣，終端市場需求和價格同比下降。而且，在我們過去一直領先的某個介面領域，出現新的競爭對手的可能性，所有這些因素都表明，該領域的需求同比將會下降。

Our next question comes from Tom O'Malley from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的湯姆·奧馬利。

I'm going to get a little specific on the technology and share side, and hopefully, you can do your best to answer it, but you talked about losing share in 3D sensing. I know you're tired of this story, but it still does matter to move the numbers a little bit into the end of this fiscal year.

我打算具體談談科技和市場佔有率的問題，希望您能盡力解答。您之前提到過3D感測領域的市佔率下滑。我知道您可能已經聽膩了，但為了在本財政年度結束時扭轉局面，這個問題仍然很重要。

Can you just talk about when you look at losing share, I think it's pretty widely reported that there's a new entrant in the world-facing sensor, is there a reason why share would be coming out of your pocket and not your competitors that you split that with today? Or do you see that entrant kind of taking share equally from the both of you? And just walk through to the best of your ability why that would be the case.

能否談談市佔率流失的問題？據廣泛報道，全球感測器市場出現了一家新進者。您認為市佔率的流失會從您手中奪走，而不是從目前與之平分市佔率的競爭對手手中奪走嗎？或者您認為這家新進業者會從您和競爭對手手中平分市場份額？請您盡可能詳細地解釋一下原因。

Yes. It's -- I think it's premature to know exactly what's going to happen on the next generation of phones. We wanted to highlight that there is potential that one socket could be bringing in a new supplier. And I don't think there would be any difference on the impact on us or our competitor with respect to that third supplier. If they come in and if they're able to ramp, I think it will be equally share shifting to that new supplier. Did that answer your question, Tom?

是的。我認為現在就斷言下一代手機會如何發展還為時過早。我們想強調的是，一種介面的出現可能會引進新的供應商。而且我認為，對於我們和我們的競爭對手來說，第三家供應商的出現不會產生任何影響。如果他們進入市場並能夠擴大產能，我認為市場份額也會相應轉移到這家新供應商身上。湯姆，這樣回答你的問題了嗎？

Got it. And then -- it did. And then on the gross margins, you don't break out the gross margins on the guidance. But just looking at what's implied, it seems like the core telecom and datacom gross margin continue to be under pressure. I know you guys have synergies rolling in on the Neo side, but could you just break down where you're seeing that weakness? Is it in the legacy Lumentum products? Or are you seeing the gross margin pressure on the acquired Neo products that are still waiting for some of those synergies to come in?

明白了。然後——確實如此。關於毛利率，你們在績效指引中沒有單獨列出毛利率。但從字面意思來看，核心電信和數據通訊業務的毛利率似乎持續承壓。我知道你們在Neo業務方面正在逐步實現協同效應，但能否具體說明一下你們認為毛利率疲軟的原因？是原有的Lumentum產品嗎？還是說，你們認為毛利率承壓主要來自那些仍在等待綜效實現的收購的Neo產品？

Tom, I'll take that one. Yes. So on the synergy side, I mean, most of the synergies that we've seen to date have been (technical difficulty) -- as you saw our operating expenses come down quite significantly quarter-to-quarter from Q2 and into Q3 as well as in prior quarters during the fiscal year as we've taken appropriate actions there.

湯姆，我來回答這個問題。是的。就協同效應而言，我的意思是，到目前為止我們看到的大部分協同效應都是（技術性問題）——正如你所看到的，我們的營運費用從第二季度到第三季度以及本財年之前的幾個季度都大幅下降，因為我們採取了適當的措施。

On the cost of goods sold synergy, we're hoping to see most of that in the first -- the back half of our fiscal '24. We'll do a lot of the consolidation activities in the back half of this calendar year and start to see some of those synergies flow through in the first part of calendar '24.

關於銷售成本綜效，我們希望大部分能在2024財年的上半年——也就是下半年——看到。我們將在今年下半年完成大量的合併工作，並開始在2024年上半年看到部分綜效顯現。

Now on the gross margin for this quarter in particular, we made a note that we're planning on reducing our inventory levels over the remaining part of the calendar year. And as we do that, we will see some under-absorption within our manufacturing facilities as we continue to keep the infrastructure in place so that we can absorb a rebound in early '24. So you'll see some of that, and that will be impacting our gross margins over the next few quarters.

關於本季的毛利率，我們特別指出，我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內降低庫存水準。同時，由於我們需要維持基礎設施運轉，以便在2024年初應對市場反彈，因此我們的生產設施將會出現一定的產能利用不足的情況。所以，您會看到一些影響，這將在未來幾季對我們的毛利率產生一定影響。

So you're -- just to be clear, you're further reducing utilization inside of your own facilities?

所以，說清楚點，你們是在進一步降低自家設施的使用率嗎？

Yes. Yes, that's right. Yes.

是的。沒錯，就是這樣。是的。

Yes. And it's mostly things like depreciation that will continue to impact us for a couple of quarters.

是的。而且像折舊之類的因素會在接下來的幾季繼續對我們產生影響。

Our next question comes from Christopher Rolland from SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Christopher Rolland。

So I guess my first question is, how do you see -- is this a trough for 3DS? Do you see it kind of ramping from here? Like how should we be thinking about a new run rate? And then what portion of this for next quarter is actually industrial so we can get a sense of that versus consumer?

所以我的第一個問題是，您如何看待3DS的低谷？您認為它會從這裡開始回升嗎？我們該如何設想新的成長速度？另外，下個季度工業領域實際佔比是多少？這樣我們才能了解工業領域和消費領域之間的差異。

Yes. Typically, the June quarter is the low quarter seasonality-wise, given that this is really the last quarter of the prior model and inventory does come down as they -- as our main customer starts production in the September quarter of the new devices. So this is the typical trough in any 3D sensing cycle for our main customer.

是的。通常來說，6 月是淡季，因為這是上一代產品的最後一個季度，庫存會隨著我們主要客戶在 9 月開始生產新設備而下降。所以，這對我們主要客戶而言，是任何 3D 感測週期中典型的低谷期。

So I think end user demand will pick up in the September and the December quarter, as it does typically. And most of what we're seeing that's impacting our outlook for fiscal '24 is the share shifting that we talked about that has been coming for the last 4 or 5 years is now coming to fruition and now it's more normalized. And as Wajid indicated, we don't have a 10% customer in consumer anymore. And as far as industrial, industrial is low single digits on a quarterly basis of low single digits million.

所以我認為終端用戶需求會在9月和12月季度回升，這通常是正常的。目前影響我們2024財年展望的大部分因素，是我們之前討論過的、持續了四到五年的市場份額轉移，現在正在逐步實現並趨於正常化。正如Wajid所指出的，我們不再有佔消費品市場份額10%的客戶了。至於工業領域，每季的工業客戶佔比都只有幾百萬，也就是幾千萬。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then secondly, if we could talk about your 200-gig per lane EML, 800, 1.6 t. When do you expect this to ramp considerably for you guys? And then any update on your CW lasers and when you think that could contribute?

好的，這很有幫助。其次，我們能否談談你們的200G/通道EML、800、1.6噸的設備？你們預計何時能大幅提升產能？另外，你們的連續波雷射有什麼最新進展嗎？你們認為它何時能有所貢獻？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. Those products are now sampling to customers and working with customers to be ready for the ramp. I would say timing is later this calendar year and heading into the next calendar year, both for -- I mean we are shipping today CW lasers of a couple of different flavors for folks that use them in silicon photonic applications, but more significantly again in calendar '24.

是的，謝謝，克里斯。這些產品目前正在向客戶提供樣品，並與客戶合作，為量產做好準備。我認為時間會在今年晚些時候以及明年，包括——我的意思是，我們目前正在向矽光子應用領域的客戶交付幾種不同類型的連續波激光器，但更重要的是，2024年還會再次推出。

Our next question comes from Ruben Roy from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Ruben Roy。

Either Alan or Chris, I wonder if you'd characterize how you're looking at some of the opportunities around 3D sensing and industrial, auto, IoT, et cetera. Obviously, still early days. But what needs to happen, would you say, to get into more meaningful ramp? Is this a question of pricing or more testing? If you can kind of walk us through how you're thinking about the ramps over the next 18, 24 months, that would be helpful.

艾倫或克里斯，我想請你們談談如何看待3D感測技術在工業、汽車、物聯網等領域的應用機會。當然，現在還處於早期階段。但你們認為，要實現更有意義的規模擴張，需要做些什麼？是價格問題還是需要更多測試？如果你們能大致闡述未來18到24個月的市場擴張計劃，那就太好了。

Yes. I mean I think the largest opportunity, at least on a very long-term basis, is the automotive space, really ADAS, LiDAR as well as in-cabin. Those -- it's just long -- very long development cycles in the automotive industry, measured in 5-year increments in some ways. And we've been engaged for quite a while, but we -- with numerous customers with the focus on really planting seeds with various LiDAR architecture types to ensure that as decisions are made by the end customers that we end up in the ultimate solutions that they pick.

是的。我的意思是，我認為最大的機遇，至少從長遠來看，在於汽車領域，特別是高級駕駛輔助系統（ADAS）、雷射雷達（LiDAR）以及車內系統。汽車產業的研發週期非常長，有些甚至以五年為一個週期。我們已經在這個領域耕耘了相當長一段時間，與眾多客戶合作，致力於在各種光達架構方面進行深入研究，以確保最終客戶在做出決策時，我們能夠提供他們最終選擇的解決方案。

I think you're going to see the next 2 years being still in much more modest growth for these industrial and automotive applications. As we highlighted on the call, shipping $3 million a quarter, which at the chip level, is significant, if you will. We do expect that LiDAR modules will grow to, let's say, over the next 3 to 5 years, a multibillion-dollar market, and then the LiDAR chips being maybe 10% or 15% of that, if you will.

我認為未來兩年​​，這些工業和汽車應用領域的成長仍將較為溫和。正如我們在電話會議上所強調的，每季300萬美元的出貨量，就晶片層面而言，已經相當可觀了。我們預計，未來3到5年內，光達模組市場規模將達到數十億美元，而光達晶片的市場份額可能僅佔其中的10%到15%。

And then 5 years after that, so we're talking about 10 years out, it's tens of billions of dollars market, if you will, for LiDAR modules. So it's a long game that we're playing. But fortunately, it leverages chip technology, which is something that we can leverage across multiple end markets.

再過五年，也就是十年後，光達模組的市場規模將達到數百億美元。所以這是一場持久戰。但幸運的是，它利用了晶片技術，而晶片技術可以讓我們跨多個終端市場應用。

I appreciate that. And a quick follow-up for Wajid on that topic. Wajid, you talked to the gross margin, understood on sort of the dynamics around telecom. But as consumer -- it seems like we're going to be running a different run rate as you think about the rest of this year and potentially next year with competitive dynamic changing a bit. How is that impacting the way you're thinking about gross margins maybe from a longer-term perspective?

我很感激。關於這個話題，我想再問瓦吉德一個問題。瓦吉德，你談到了毛利率，也了解了電信業的動態。但作為消費者——考慮到今年剩餘時間和明年可能出現的競爭格局變化，我們的營運速度似乎會有所不同。從長遠來看，這會如何影響你對毛利率的看法？

Yes, Ruben. So I mean, our longer-term gross margin targets really haven't changed. A lot of the reductions we saw in gross margins this quarter did come from a mix between chips and module business, obviously, as chips generally have higher margin levels. But a lot of the decline came from just overall utilization of factories and shipments.

是的，魯本。我的意思是，我們的長期毛利率目標其實並沒有改變。本季毛利率的下降很大程度上是由於晶片和模​​組業務的綜合影響，因為晶片的毛利率通常更高。但毛利率下降的很大一部分原因在於工廠整體利用率和出貨量。

And so as we’ll see our telecom, datacom business rebound as well as lasers rebound into calendar year '24, we should start to see improvements in gross margins in our overall operating margins from the levels that we're delivering right now. And so we really haven't come off what we talked about at OFC around our midterm target model.

因此，隨著我們的電信、數據通訊業務以及雷射業務在2024年逐步復甦，我們的整體營運利潤率（毛利率）應該會從目前的水平開始提高。所以，我們並沒有偏離在OFC大會上討論的中期目標模式。

And sorry, I would be missing the whole comment around synergies as well where we'll see a real uptick in synergy activity flowing through our P&L in the first part of the calendar year and the favorable impact that will have on our overall operating model.

抱歉，我也會錯過關於協同效應的整個評論，我們將在今年上半年看到協同效應活動在我們的損益表中真正增加，這將對我們的整體營運模式產生有利影響。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

This is Blake Friedman on for Vivek. First, just touching on the telecom and datacom side. I was wondering if you can discuss how pricing is holding up in this environment. And if you're seeing any competitors price more aggressively in the current environment and then how you view that risk in general.

這裡是布萊克·弗里德曼，替維韋克發言。首先，我們來談談電信和數據通訊的問題。我想請您談談當前環境下的定價狀況。您是否注意到有競爭對手採取了更激進的定價策略？您如何看待這種風險？

Yes. We're not seeing any change in the dynamic of pricing. I think the dynamic has changed from 5 years ago to what it is today where we partner with our customers and provide long-term price agreements that are tied to share of their spend in that particular product, and that usually starts when we decided to develop a product together. And so there's a varying degree of those types of long-term agreements as well as annual type agreements that were done several months ago. So I wouldn't say there was any dynamic change in pricing as we look at telecom and datacom.

是的。我們沒有看到定價機制有任何變化。我認為，定價機制與五年前相比發生了變化，現在我們與客戶建立合作關係，提供與他們在特定產品上的支出比例掛鉤的長期價格協議，這通常始於我們決定共同開發產品之時。因此，既有不同程度的此類長期協議，也有幾個月前簽訂的年度協議。所以，就電信和數據通訊領域而言，我認為定價機制並沒有任何動態變化。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up to kind of go back to the gross margin side of things. I know you discussed your current 3D sensing position as well as managing utilization. So I'm just kind of curious, as we kind of view a demand recovery, as we look out beyond the June quarter, maybe at a high level, can gross margins decline from the June levels? Or could that -- just kind of any color there at a high level, how it progresses through the year. More detail would be great.

明白了。接下來我想再問一下毛利率方面的問題。我知道您已經討論過您目前在3D感測領域的業務狀況以及如何管理產能利用率。所以我想問的是，隨著需求復甦，展望六月季度之後，毛利率會從六月的水平下降嗎？或者說，毛利率會如何變動？ ——我只是想了解一下，從宏觀角度來看，毛利率在一年中的走勢會是怎麼樣的？如果能提供更多細節就更好了。

Yes. I mean there's a number of moving pieces that could really impact us, especially as it comes to mix and even within telecom as it comes to mix on our various product lines. What I will say is that we noted in our prepared remarks that we are planning on bringing down our inventory levels by approximately $40 million exiting the calendar year. That is going to have an impact on overall gross margins, at least in the back half of the calendar year.

是的。我的意思是，有很多變數可能會對我們產生影響，尤其是在產品組合方面，甚至在電信領域，我們各個產品線的組合也會受到影響。我想說的是，我們在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，我們計劃在年底前將庫存水準降低約4000萬美元。這將對整體毛利率產生影響，至少在下半年會是如此。

And then as we get back to more normalized levels, in the first part of calendar '24, we'll have the tailwind of cost of goods sold synergies as well as what Alan talked about, which is us shipping closer to what is end market demand. And so both of those should have a favorable tailwind. So yes, in the first part of our fiscal year, we will have a headwind, especially around our desire to bring down inventory levels. But then we should see an uptick with synergies and shipments being more reminiscent of what end market demand is. So those 2 should help us.

然後，隨著我們逐漸恢復到更正常的水平，在2024年上半年，我們將受益於銷售成本協同效應以及Alan提到的更貼近終端市場需求的出貨策略。因此，這兩方面都將帶來有利的推動作用。所以，是的，在財年上半年，我們確實會面臨一些阻力，尤其是在降低庫存水準方面。但隨著綜效的發揮以及出貨量更加貼近終端市場需求，我們應該會看到業績回升。因此，這兩方面因素應該會對我們有幫助。

So that's the right way, I think we're thinking about it, and that's how we think you may want to think about it.

所以，我認為這是正確的思考方式，我們也認為您可能也想這樣思考。

Our next question comes from George Notter from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的喬治諾特。

I'm trying to get a sense for what the right revenue run rate for the company is under a normalized scenario. If I look back, you guys shipped a couple $500 million quarters. Obviously, those were predicated on inventory build.

我想了解一下，在正常情況下，公司合理的營收成長率應該是多少。回顧過去，你們曾有幾個季度營收達到5億美元的佳績。顯然，這些都是建立在庫存累積的基礎上的。

Now we're guiding for $350 million to $380 million here in the June quarter. Obviously, there's a huge gap in there. And I have to confess it just -- it's really hard to, I think, try to get an understanding of what the normalized revenue run rate here is as the market normalizes in terms of inventory digest. So what comments do you guys have about where this business shakes out ultimately on top line?

現在我們預計六月季度營收將在3.5億美元至3.8億美元之間。顯然，這其中存在著巨大差距。我必須承認，隨著市場庫存消化恢復正常，要準確掌握正常的營收成長率真的很難。那麼，各位對這項業務最終的營收表現有何看法？

Yes, George. As we said, we think we're under-shipping in market demand, and I think that's going to -- the guidance for the June quarter reflects that. How much we're under-shipping and what the end market demand is 3 quarters from now, very, very difficult to have a crystal ball around that.

是的，喬治。正如我們所說，我們認為目前的出貨量低於市場需求，而且我認為——六月季度的業績指引也反映了這一點。至於出貨量究竟低於市場需求多少，以及三個季度後的最終市場需求會是多少，現在很難準確預測。

That said, again, 3D sensing, low quarter is June. Lasers, I think is at a lower level than we would expect it in normal times as we are going through a product transition, and we expect calendar '24 to pick up in lasers. So should we be where we had originally guided the March quarter, I think that's probably more reflective of end market demand.

話雖如此，3D感測業務的淡季預計出現在6月。雷射業務目前處於低於正常水平，因為我們正處於產品轉型期，預計2024年雷射業務將有所回升。因此，如果我們能達到先前對3月季度業績的預期，我認為這更能反映終端市場的需求。

And then as the market grows in high single digits to low double digits on a CAGR basis for telecom and datacom, then I think there's a lot of catalysts that are going to drive even more rapid growth rate than that, given what we're seeing inside the data center and between data centers in support of AI and machine learning. So I don't think there's any reason we can't get back to those levels. It's a matter of when we're going to get back to those $500 million levels given the inventory digestion and whatever happens in the macro environment as we look at calendar 2024.

隨著電信和數據通訊市場以接近兩位數的複合年增長率增長，我認為鑑於我們在數據中心內部以及數據中心之間為支持人工智能和機器學習而看到的種種變化，許多催化劑將推動市場以更快的速度增長。因此，我認為我們完全有可能重回之前的水平。問題在於，考慮到庫存消化情況以及展望2024年宏觀環境的發展，我們何時才能重回5億美元的水平。

Our next question comes from Ananda Baruah from Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Ananda Baruah。

Just 2 quick ones, if I could. One is really a question and clarification. Chris, on your prior remarks about sort of where you guys will be contributing to sort of AI build-out, is it -- like I guess the way I interpreted your remarks were certainly NeoPhotonics. Does your data center chip business also sort of contribute to that? I would think, yes.

如果可以的話，我想問兩個簡短的問題。第一個其實是個疑問，也想澄清一下。克里斯，你之前提到過你們公司將如何參與人工智慧的構建，我理解你的意思應該是NeoPhotonics吧？你們的資料中心晶片業務也參與其中嗎？我想應該是的。

And then I also heard some other areas as well across the lasers and photonics portfolio. So could you just clarify that that's accurate? And is there any -- it's super early days, but is there any way to context for us kind of what portion of the overall portfolio has some exposure in any way that's useful. And then I have a quick follow-up.

我還聽說雷射和光子學產品組合中也涉及其他一些領域。能否確認一下這些資訊是否準確？現在還處於非常早期的階段，但能否讓我們大致了解一下，在整個產品組合中，哪些部分涉及這些領域？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, thanks. Yes, I would go back to that in the nearer term, it's the data center chip business, as you alluded to, which both has what we've been known for, high-speed EMLs transitioning to higher speed, but also the addition of high-speed VCSELs and the growth of high-power CW lasers used for silicon photonic architectures.

是的，謝謝。是的，近期我會繼續關注資料中心晶片業務，正如您所提到的，它既包括我們一直以來所擅長的高速EML向更高速度的過渡，也包括高速VCSEL的加入以及用於矽光子架構的高功率連續波激光器的增長。

So those are what I referenced as more nearer term, as in the next 10 quarters. As we look to the next couple of years, we anticipate the data center architectures will evolve to more application-specific equipment, if you will, and that application-specific equipment will have, maybe in addition to the standard Ethernet-type connects, more proprietary interconnects, using, in a sense, a custom-designed transmission links.

所以，我之前提到的就是比較近期的發展趨勢，也就是未來十個季度。展望未來幾年，我們預期資料中心架構將向更多應用專用設備演進，而這些應用專用設備除了標準的乙太網路連接外，可能還會採用更多專有互連方式，某種程度上來說，就是使用客製化設計的傳輸鏈路。

And that's where our engagement with leaders in the space is really important, taking our broader photonics capabilities around lasers and transmission in general as well as in some cases, optical switching, all will be brought to bear. So it does impact a more broad piece of our company than just the datacom or data center business that today is the primary driver.

因此，我們與該領域領導者的合作至關重要，我們將充分運用我們在雷射、傳輸以及某些情況下的光子學技術，包括光開關等。所以，它對我們公司的影響遠不止於目前作為主要驅動力的數據通訊或數據中心業務。

Maybe I can add to that as well, I think.

我想我也可以補充一些內容。

Yes. That's helpful context, Chris.

是的，克里斯，這很有幫助。

Just one other thing to add to Chris' commentary is we've seen very strong demand for our subsea cable deployment where we provide components that amplify the signal at the bottom of the ocean. So we're seeing a lot of the demand for subsea coming from the hyperscalers as they connect those large data centers. Whether that's a precursor to expectations on AI or machine learning or not, it is an area that we've seen strong demand. And these are big investments that take a year or more to deploy. So I think we're seeing some leading indicators that this is an area of growth for us as well.

克里斯的評論還有一點要補充：我們看到市場對海底光纜部署的需求非常強勁，我們提供的組件可以放大海底訊號。許多超大規模資料中心業者需要連接大型資料中心，因此對海底光纜的需求特別旺盛。無論這是否預示著人工智慧或機器學習的普及，我們都看到該領域的需求十分強勁。這些都是需要一年或更長時間才能完成部署的大筆投資。所以我認為，一些先行指標表明，這對我們來說也是一個成長領域。

And I guess the quick clarification is just given the guidance for the June quarter, kind of telco/datacom slightly up, flat to slightly up q-over-q. Are you essentially calling kind of the bottom here, June quarter in your telco/datacom business combined? And should we think of flattish through the remainder of the year until demand picks up?

我想快速澄清一下，鑑於貴公司對六月季度的業績指引，電信/數據通訊業務環比略有增長或持平。您是否認為六月季度電信/數據通訊業務的整體業績已經觸底？我們是否應該預期在今年剩餘時間裡，業務將保持平穩，直到需求回升？

Yes. We're reluctant to guide more than 1 quarter at a time. We are seeing some strength in the June quarter on coherent components for high-speed coherent modules. And whether that continues into the September and December quarter, it's hard to say. We are expecting kind of a continued level of revenue -- or I should say, inventory digestion and certainly in the September quarter and then partially into the December quarter. So it's, I would say, flattish kind of outlook, but we'll give you more input on that in August when we have our next call.

是的。我們不願意一次給出超過一個季度的業績指引。我們看到，6月份季度高速相干模組的相干組件銷售表現強勁。至於這種勢頭能否延續到9月和12月季度，目前還很難說。我們預計營收將保持相對穩定——或者更準確地說，是庫存消化，尤其是在9月份季度以及部分12月份季度。因此，我認為整體前景比較平穩，但我們會在8月的電話會議上提供更多相關資訊。

Bruno, I think we have time for one more question, and then we'll turn it over to Alan for some final remarks.

布魯諾，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題，然後我們把時間交給艾倫，讓他做最後的總結發言。

Our next question comes from Mike Genovese from Rosenblatt Securities.

下一個問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Mike Genovese。

Just can we get specific color on datacom. I think that inventory correction started a couple of quarters ago. So the question is, is the inventory correction over, but now there's sort of some order pushouts in the cloud? Or any color you can give us on specific to the datacom business would be helpful.

我們能否了解一下數據通訊業務的具體情況？我記得庫存調整大概是幾個季度前開始的。所以問題是，庫存調整是否已經結束，但現在雲端業務方面是否出現了一些訂單延期的情況？或者，您能否提供一些關於數據通訊業務的具體資訊？這將對我們很有幫助。

Yes, Mike, I'll give you my perspective, and then maybe Chris can chime in. Yes, it has been -- the past few quarters where we've been talking about a slowdown in datacom, an inventory build at the cloud providers, hyperscalers, as they were ordering several quarters in advance because of the shortages in calendar 2022, they were ordering or some of them were ordering at an expectation that they would grow at a certain rate in the 30% to 40% range.

是的，麥克，我先說說我的看法，然後克里斯也許可以補充。是的，過去幾季我們一直在討論資料通訊放緩、雲端服務供應商和超大規模雲端服務商增加庫存的問題，因為他們提前幾個季度訂購了資源，以應對2022年的資源短缺。他們訂購資源，或說其中一些公司訂購資源，是基於他們預期自身業務將以30%到40%的速度成長的預期。

And as they've announced their growth rates are significantly lower than that, it takes longer time to burn off that inventory than originally expected. So we're seeing their inventory burn off. It's still -- some customers and some of our module manufacturers, still a quarter or more of inventory there. And our expectations are that the demand for AI and machine learning will help the consumption of this inventory, so that by the end of the calendar year, we'll start shipping into the datacom market more like the end market consumption. But in the interim, there's still inventory in the channel there.

正如他們所宣布的，他們的成長率遠低於預期，因此消化庫存所需的時間也比最初預期的要長。所以我們看到他們的庫存正在逐步減少。目前，一些客戶和我們的一些模組製造商仍然持有四分之一或更多的庫存。我們預計，對人工智慧和機器學習的需求將有助於消耗這些庫存，因此到今年年底，我們將開始向數據通訊市場發貨，更接近終端市場消費。但在此期間，渠道中仍存在庫存。

Okay. Great. And then my follow-up or a separate kind of question on commercial industrial lasers. The first half of this year had some pretty tough compares, so going into next year at a lower run rate. But -- so how do you -- how should we think about year-over-year in '24 in that business?

好的，太好了。接下來我想問一個關於商用工業雷射的問題。今年上半年的年比數據較低，所以明年的成長速度可能會比較慢。那麼，我們該如何看待2024年該產業的年比走勢呢？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I would say we're going to see, as we highlighted in the prepared remarks that lasers will come down a little bit, given it's tied to, as Alan highlighted, semiconductor end markets as well as macro manufacturing, if you will.

是的，謝謝，麥克。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所強調的那樣，我認為我們會看到雷射價格略有下降，因為它與半導體終端市場以及宏觀製造業密切相關，正如艾倫所強調的那樣。

So we believe that it will come down in the next several quarters. Obviously, it was kind of ramping up through the year. But in the net, we suspect that, at least as we look to customer forecasts at this point, that FY '24 will be lower than FY '23 was for commercial lasers directionally.

因此，我們認為未來幾季價格將會下降。顯然，今年價格一直在上漲。但總的來說，我們預計，至少根據我們目前對客戶預測的情況來看，2024財年商用定向雷射的價格將低於2023財年。

Okay. Great. I don't want to beat the dead horse on the 3DS. So I appreciate the color on the other segments.

好的，太好了。我不想再老生常談3DS了。所以我很欣賞其他部分的色彩。

Thank you, Mike. I think now we'll turn the call back over to Alan for some closing remarks.

謝謝你，麥克。我想現在我們應該把電話交還給艾倫，讓他做些總結發言。

Thank you, Kathy. I would like to leave you with a few thoughts as we wrap up this call. Mid- to long-term fundamentals remain intact for our business as we serve the exponential growth in network bandwidth, in artificial intelligence, machine learning, mobile, carrier and cloud computing markets.

謝謝凱西。在通話結束之際，我想和您分享幾點想法。隨著網路頻寬、人工智慧、機器學習、行動、營運商和雲端運算市場呈指數級增長，我們業務的中長期基本面依然穩固。

New automotive and industrial applications are emerging for our imaging and sensing products and applications for commercial lasers are expanding into new applications beyond our traditional markets. We remain committed to investing deeply in innovation to deliver on customer needs today and in the future.

我們的成像和感測產品在汽車和工業領域正湧現出新的應用，商用雷射的應用也在傳統市場之外不斷拓展。我們將繼續致力於創新，以滿足客戶當前及未來的需求。

With that, I would like to thank everyone for attending, and we look forward to talking with you again at investor conferences and upcoming meetings in the coming weeks. Thank you, and have a great day.

最後，感謝各位的出席，我們期待在未來幾週的投資者會議和即將舉行的會議上再次與各位交流。謝謝，祝您一切順利。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。謝謝。