Lineage, Inc. (LINE) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Lineage third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    各位好。感謝各位加入,歡迎參加 Lineage 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I will now hand the conference over to Ki Bin Kim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資人關係主管 Ki Bin Kim。請開始。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Welcome to Lineage's discussion of the third-quarter 2026 financial results. Joining me today are Greg Lehmkuhl, Lineage's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Robb LeMasters, Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings presentation, which includes supplemental financial information, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.onelineage.com. Following management's prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    謝謝。歡迎參加 Lineage 2026 年第三季財務結果說明。今天與我一同出席的有 Lineage 總裁兼執行長 Greg Lehmkuhl,以及財務長 Robb LeMasters。我們的財報簡報(包含補充財務資訊)可於投資人關係網站 ir.onelineage.com 查閱。管理層預備發言結束後,我們很樂意回答各位的提問。

  • Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today will include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our filings with the SEC. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued yesterday, along with the comments on this call, will not be updated as actual events unfold. In addition, reference will be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,我們今天的評論將包含依據聯邦證券法規所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中所述之多項風險與不確定性影響。這些風險可能導致我們的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的內容出現重大差異。我們昨日發布的財報新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述,以及本次電話會議中的評論,將不會隨著實際事件發展而更新。此外,我們也將提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。

  • Information regarding our use of these measures and a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in the press release and supplemental package that was issued yesterday. Unless otherwise noted, reported figures are rounded and comparisons of the third quarter of 2026 are to the third quarter of 2025.

    關於我們使用這些指標的資訊,以及非 GAAP 與 GAAP 指標之間的調節表,可在昨日發布的新聞稿與補充資料包中查閱。除非另有說明,所報告數字均已四捨五入;且 2026 年第三季的比較基準為 2025 年第三季。

  • Now I would like to turn the call over to Greg.

    現在我想把電話會議交給 Greg。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ki Bin, and good morning, everyone. Let me walk through our agenda for this morning. First, I'll cover the quarter and updated outlook at a high level and then share our latest views on cold storage industry dynamics. Robb LeMasters will then walk through segment performance, capital structure and the detail behind our outlook. I'll return with closing comments before we open up the line for your questions.

    謝謝你,Ki Bin,各位早安。我先帶各位看一下今天上午的議程。首先,我會從較高層次說明本季表現與更新後的展望,接著分享我們對冷鏈倉儲產業動態的最新觀點。之後 Robb LeMasters 會說明各事業部表現、資本結構,以及展望背後的細節。最後我會做結語,然後開放各位提問。

  • Turning to our quarterly performance on slide 4. While the macro conditions remain challenging this quarter, as we'll discuss, our results were generally in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $317 million, as we expected, albeit supported by favorable admin performance. Total AFFO was ahead of our expectations at $188 million or $0.73 a share, helped by lower maintenance CapEx and taxes. In our Warehousing segment, same-store physical occupancy grew 110 basis points year-over-year to 76.2%, further confirmation that customer inventory levels have broadly stabilized.

    接著看第 4 頁投影片的季度表現。儘管本季總體環境仍具挑戰(我們稍後會討論),我們的結果整體而言大致符合預期。調整後 EBITDA 為 3.17 億美元,符合我們的預期,但部分受惠於行政管理表現優於預期。總 AFFO 為 1.88 億美元(每股 0.73 美元),高於我們的預期,主要受較低的維護性資本支出與稅負所帶動。在倉儲(Warehousing)事業部,同店實體入住率(physical occupancy)年增 110 個基點至 76.2%,進一步印證客戶庫存水位已大致趨於穩定。

  • While underlying demand remains healthy, some customers are holding slightly leaner inventories in the near term, reflecting higher carrying and transportation costs. Consequently, warehouse volumes were somewhat lighter than normal seasonal trends would suggest after a strong first half of the year. Services revenue per throughput pallet grew 2% year-over-year, holding its recent positive pace. And same-store throughput was down about 1% versus being down 3% in the first quarter and about 2% in the second. The trend is better, but international container volumes into the US are still holding it back, which we'll discuss more on the next page. Same-store NOI declined 4% year-over-year.

    雖然基本需求仍然健康,但部分客戶在短期內維持略為精實的庫存,反映持有成本與運輸成本上升。因此,在上半年表現強勁之後,倉儲吞吐量(warehouse volumes)較正常季節性趨勢所暗示的水準略為偏弱。每個吞吐棧板(throughput pallet)的服務收入年增 2%,維持近期的正向增速。同店吞吐量約下降 1%,相較第一季下降 3%、第二季下降約 2%。趨勢有所改善,但流入美國的國際貨櫃量仍在拖累表現,我們會在下一頁進一步說明。同店 NOI 年減 4%。

  • As we said last quarter, the third quarter was the toughest 2025 quarterly comparison, and it was expected to be the low point of our same-store NOI change for 2026. All that being said, we're winning new business in what remains a competitive environment, and that's what an industry-leading network and service offering does and positions us well as the cycle turns. Within GIS, trade-related disruption and elevated carrier costs continue to pressure results.

    如同我們上季所說,第三季是 2025 年最艱難的季度比較基期,且原本就預期會是 2026 年同店 NOI 變動的低點。即便如此,在競爭仍然激烈的環境中,我們持續贏得新業務;這正是產業領先的網路與服務方案所能帶來的成果,也讓我們在景氣循環反轉時具備良好定位。在 GIS 方面,與貿易相關的干擾以及偏高的承運商成本持續對結果造成壓力。

  • Although we acted quickly to adjust carrier rates and our fuel surcharges automatically reset, the unprecedented acceleration of third-party carrier costs increased faster than we anticipated. We are continuing to increase our rates with customers to match the current environment, and we expect margin recovery over the next couple of quarters. Importantly, across both of these segments, international businesses have been a real source of growth, great job to our teams in each of those regions. Given what we've seen since our last earnings call and what we anticipate for the remainder of the year, we're adjusting our full year guidance. We now expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.27 billion, which lowers the midpoint by $15 million.

    雖然我們迅速採取行動調整承運商費率,且燃油附加費也會自動重設,但第三方承運商成本以前所未有的速度加速上升,增幅快於我們的預期。我們持續提高對客戶的收費以反映目前環境,並預期未來幾個季度毛利率將逐步回升。重要的是,在這兩個事業部中,國際業務一直是實質的成長來源;各區域團隊表現非常出色。基於自上次財報電話會議以來的觀察,以及我們對今年剩餘期間的預期,我們正在調整全年財測指引。我們目前預期調整後 EBITDA 為 12.5 億至 12.7 億美元,中位數下調 1,500 萬美元。

  • We're taking down the high end of our same-store NOI growth range to negative 3% to negative 2% and reducing GIS NOI while favorably adjusting administrative expense. On AFFO per share, we're holding the midpoint but narrowing the range to $2.86 to $2.98, helped by tighter control of contributors to AFFO that do not impact adjusted EBITDA. We never like guiding toward the lower end of the targets we set at the start of the year.

    我們將同店 NOI 成長區間的上緣下修至年減 3% 至年減 2%,並下調 GIS NOI,同時有利地調整行政費用。在每股 AFFO 方面,我們維持中位數不變,但將區間收斂至 2.86 至 2.98 美元,主要受惠於更嚴格控管那些會影響 AFFO、但不影響調整後 EBITDA 的項目。我們一向不喜歡把指引導向年初所設定目標的較低端。

  • Going in, we knew the industry was working through headwinds, including industry oversupply and softer trade. This year also brought surprises that were not contemplated in our initial guidance, including the fire at our Big Bear facility in Los Angeles, which we now estimate at a $20 million impact to warehouse NOI and adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and the California legal settlement in GIS we mentioned last quarter at roughly $7 million. Excluding just those two items, we would be forecasting to end the year towards the upper end of our initial full year adjusted EBITDA and AFFO guidance range.

    在年初時,我們就知道產業正面臨逆風,包括產業供給過剩以及貿易走弱。今年也出現了在我們初始指引中未納入的意外事件,包括洛杉磯 Big Bear 設施火災;我們目前估計其對 2026 年倉儲 NOI 與調整後 EBITDA 的影響約為 2,000 萬美元;以及我們上季提到的 GIS 加州法律和解案,影響約 700 萬美元。若僅排除上述兩項因素,我們對今年年底的預測將會落在原先全年調整後 EBITDA 與 AFFO 指引區間的上緣附近。

  • Turning to slide 5. Two of our core KPIs are moving in the right direction, giving us confidence that market conditions are stabilizing despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Same-store physical occupancy increased and has grown year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, which we think illustrates that we're gaining market share from our competitors. Throughput remains negative, but the decline narrowed from 3.2% in Q2 '25 to 1.1%. While we don't expect a perfectly linear recovery, the trend is encouraging and supports our view that the business is moving in the right direction.

    接著看第 5 頁投影片。我們兩項核心 KPI 正朝正確方向發展,讓我們有信心在持續的總體經濟逆風下,市場狀況正在趨於穩定。同店實體入住率上升,且已連續兩個季度年增;我們認為這顯示我們正在從競爭對手手中取得市占。吞吐量仍為負成長,但降幅已從 2025 年第二季的 3.2% 收斂至 1.1%。雖然我們不預期復甦會完全線性進行,但這個趨勢令人鼓舞,也支持我們對業務正朝正向方向發展的看法。

  • Turning to slide 6, I'll provide an update on US supply and demand. On the left, much of the new supply came from private developers and smaller players, and it is slowing substantially. Annual additions peaked at nearly 8 million square feet or 4% in 2025 and are expected to be 3 million square feet this year or under 2% of market capacity. In the face of this new capacity, as of October, we strategically idled 16 facilities since the start of 2025, totaling approximately 3 million square feet and over 200,000 pallet positions.

    接著看第 6 頁投影片,我將更新美國供需狀況。左側顯示,新增供給多來自民間開發商與較小型業者,而其增速正顯著放緩。年度新增面積在 2025 年達到高峰,接近 800 萬平方英尺(約占 4%);預期今年新增約 300 萬平方英尺,或低於市場容量的 2%。面對這些新增產能,截至 10 月,我們自 2025 年初以來已策略性暫停營運 16 座設施,合計約 300 萬平方英尺,並超過 20 萬個棧板儲位。

  • Also keep in mind that just between us and amounts publicly announced by Americold, nearly 9 million square feet or 4% of US cold storage capacity has been idled over just the past two years. The same macroeconomic conditions that affected us are also affecting smaller competitors and their access to capital, which should limit new supply growth going forward. On the right, fresh and frozen food demand remains solid.

    另外也請記住,僅就我們以及 Americold 公開宣布的金額而言,在過去兩年中,美國冷藏倉儲容量中近 900 萬平方英尺(約占 4%)已被停用。影響我們的相同總體經濟條件,也正在影響規模較小的競爭對手及其取得資本的能力,這應會限制未來新增供給的成長。右側顯示,生鮮與冷凍食品需求仍然穩健。

  • The categories we serve continue to grow faster than the broader food industry, supported by favorable long-term trends. Frozen food remains a compelling option for value-conscious consumers and aligns with growing demand for convenient protein-focused meals. On the bottom of the slide, household spending on fresh and frozen products has outgrown total food spending across several key categories. So new supply is slowing, demand remains stable, and we've developed a playbook to win in this environment.

    我們服務的品類持續以快於整體食品產業的速度成長,並受到有利的長期趨勢支撐。冷凍食品對重視性價比的消費者而言仍是極具吸引力的選擇,且符合對便利、以蛋白質為主的餐食日益增加的需求。在投影片下方,家庭在生鮮與冷凍產品上的支出,在數個關鍵品類中均超越整體食品支出的成長。因此,新增供給正在放緩、需求仍保持穩定,而我們也已建立一套在此環境中取勝的作戰手冊。

  • Now turning to slide 7. Our international import/export volumes are about 15% of our global warehouse throughput and also affect our drayage business in GIS. Let's look at two trade dynamics affecting our revised outlook. First, as you can see on the chart at the top of the page, Lineage same-store container volumes began to march down following the April 2025 tariff announcements. This year, they were down 18% in the first quarter, 15% in the second and 8% in the third. The decline has been narrowing and with easier comparisons in the fourth quarter, we expected that trend to improve slightly.

    現在轉到第 7 張投影片。我們的國際進出口量約占全球倉儲吞吐量的 15%,也會影響 GIS 的短途拖運(drayage)業務。讓我們看看兩項影響我們修正後展望的貿易動態。首先,如同頁面上方圖表所示,Lineage 的同店集裝箱量在 2025 年 4 月關稅公告後開始一路下滑。今年第一季下降 18%,第二季下降 15%,第三季下降 8%。降幅正在收斂,且第四季比較基期較容易,我們原本預期該趨勢會略有改善。

  • Second, the indicators at the bottom of the page, diesel prices, trucking capacity, container pricing and interest rates have all trended unfavorably throughout the year. Early this year, the industry appeared to be adjusting to the impacts of the tariff announcements, but trends in the late summer and early fall suggested that recovery could be delayed. Oil then jumped to above $100 a barrel compared to just $75 when we spoke last quarter. As a result, we no longer assume any meaningful improvement in these trends during the fourth quarter. Next, I'll address the question you may be asking.

    第二,頁面下方的指標——柴油價格、卡車運力、集裝箱價格與利率——全年皆呈現不利走勢。今年年初,產業似乎正在調整以因應關稅公告的影響,但夏末與初秋的趨勢顯示復甦可能延後。隨後油價跳升至每桶 100 美元以上,相較於我們上季通話時僅約 75 美元。因此,我們不再假設第四季這些趨勢會有任何顯著改善。接下來,我將回答你可能正在問的問題。

  • Why is Lineage being disproportionately impacted by macro trends? The answer is that we intentionally created this network by securing high-quality assets in some of the most difficult places to build so we could support our customers as they operate in a globally interconnected food supply chain. That positioned us in major population centers and critical port locations, where in a normal trade environment, we have delivered superior growth alongside our customers and expect to do so again as the market normalizes.

    為什麼 Lineage 受到總體趨勢的影響相對更大?答案是:我們刻意打造這個網絡,透過在一些最難開發建置的地點取得高品質資產,以便在客戶於全球互聯的食品供應鏈中運作時提供支援。這使我們布局於主要人口中心與關鍵港口位置;在正常的貿易環境下,我們與客戶一起實現了更優異的成長,並預期在市場正常化後也能再次如此。

  • However, from an international trade perspective, the past 2 years has been very challenging, particularly because the disruption has been concentrated in parts of the food supply chain where Lineage holds the strongest market position. As a reminder, this 2-year impact followed 20 years of consistent growth in international trade.

    然而,從國際貿易的角度來看,過去兩年非常具挑戰性,特別是因為擾動集中在食品供應鏈中 Lineage 擁有最強市場地位的部分。提醒一下,這兩年的影響是在國際貿易連續 20 年穩定成長之後發生的。

  • Also, Lineage is the largest cold chain provider supporting the seafood industry. As you know from our commodity mix charts, this represents roughly 13% of warehouse revenue. Due to the international trade disruption and container rates, NOI from seafood customers dropped over 14% year-over-year in the quarter and accounted for about half of our 4.2% same-store NOI decline. Conversely, once trade conditions improve, seafood could become one of the largest drivers of earnings growth, supported by attractive economics in storage handling and value-added services. Despite these headwinds, there were areas of relative strength in parts of our network outside of the port-centric assets.

    此外,Lineage 是支援海鮮產業的最大冷鏈服務供應商。如你從我們的商品組合圖表所知,這約占倉儲營收的 13%。由於國際貿易擾動與集裝箱費率,來自海鮮客戶的 NOI 在本季年減超過 14%,約占我們同店 NOI 下滑 4.2% 的一半。相對地,一旦貿易條件改善,海鮮業務可能成為獲利成長的最大驅動因素之一,並受惠於倉儲處理與加值服務的優異經濟性。儘管有這些逆風,在我們網絡中非港口核心資產的部分仍有相對強勢的領域。

  • The production advantage segment of our portfolio is more removed from global trade dynamics and more insulated from the headwinds on this slide. This portion of our network grew same-store NOI by 5% in the third quarter. Our international operations also continued to deliver solid performance. The overall food industry remains resilient, and the macro headwinds are concentrated in the US import/export segment.

    我們投資組合中的「生產優勢」板塊較不受全球貿易動態影響,對本頁所示逆風也更具緩衝。該網絡部分在第三季同店 NOI 成長 5%。我們的國際營運也持續交出穩健表現。整體食品產業仍具韌性,而總體逆風主要集中在美國進出口板塊。

  • All that said, I would not trade our portfolio for a little growth in the near term. We are the industry leader in occupancy with over 80% economic occupancy and the port warehouses we have around the world remain some of the best quality assets and are poised to outperform when the macro trade environment stabilizes. The operating leverage in our network works in both directions. Incremental volume is highly accretive, so the timing of the recovery is something we're watching closely.

    話雖如此,我不會為了短期的一點成長而拿我們的投資組合去交換。我們在入住率方面是產業領導者,經濟入住率超過 80%;我們在全球各地的港口倉庫仍是一些品質最佳的資產,並在總體貿易環境穩定後具備跑贏的條件。我們網絡的營運槓桿是雙向作用的。新增吞吐量具有高度增益性,因此我們正密切關注復甦時點。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Robb, who will give you more detail on the quarter and our revised outlook.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Robb,他將就本季表現與我們修正後的展望提供更多細節。

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Starting with Slide 8. In our global warehousing segment, third quarter total warehouse NOI was approximately $361 million and same-store NOI declined 4.2% year-over-year to $342 million. Same-store revenue grew 0.4%, same-store physical occupancy rose 110 basis points to 76.2% and economic occupancy rose 30 basis points. Services revenue per throughput pallet grew 2.1%, and rent, storage, and blast revenue per physical pallet is down minus 2.2%.

    謝謝你,Greg,各位早安。先從第 8 張投影片開始。在我們的全球倉儲部門,第三季倉儲 NOI 總額約為 3.61 億美元,同店 NOI 年減 4.2% 至 3.42 億美元。同店營收成長 0.4%,同店實體入住率上升 110 個基點至 76.2%,經濟入住率上升 30 個基點。每個吞吐棧板的服務營收成長 2.1%,而每個實體棧板的租金、倉儲與急凍(blast)營收下降 2.2%。

  • But within the segment, we achieved net pricing of 1% to 2% within our target range. The NOI decline was driven primarily by higher power costs, net of surcharges, which resulted in same-store NOI coming in slightly below our previous expectations. This was driven by our decision to temporarily de-energize portions of our solar arrays following the Big Bear solar fire incident. That being said, we do expect this headwind to be largely transitory as we turn these systems back on. On the chart at the bottom left, same-store occupancy through the first half ran ahead of both typical USDA seasonality and our own 2025 same-store occupancy cadence.

    但在該部門內,我們實現了 1% 到 2% 的淨定價,落在我們的目標區間內。NOI 下滑主要由較高的電力成本所致(扣除附加費後),使同店 NOI 略低於我們先前的預期。這是因為在 Big Bear 太陽能火災事件後,我們決定暫時讓部分太陽能陣列停止供電。儘管如此,我們預期這項逆風大多屬於短暫性,因為我們將逐步重新啟用這些系統。在左下方圖表中,同店入住率在上半年一路領先於 USDA 的典型季節性以及我們自身 2025 年同店入住率的節奏。

  • The second half has been different from what we expected. USDA seasonality would typically anticipate an uplift of 9% in the second half. Last year, even in a choppy environment, we saw an improvement of 6%. Now with elevated interest rates, fuel prices and carrier rates alongside soft container volumes, we expect muted seasonality in the second half at just 3% sequential growth.

    下半年的情況與我們預期不同。依 USDA 的季節性,通常預期下半年會提升 9%。去年即使環境波動,我們也看到 6% 的改善。但目前在利率、燃料價格與承運商費率居高不下,且集裝箱量偏弱的情況下,我們預期下半年季節性將較為溫和,序列成長僅 3%。

  • Turning to GIS on slide 9. GIS NOI was approximately $56 million, down 13.8% and below our expectations. Revenue was $352 million, down 3.3%, but up 5%, excluding last year's Spain transportation disposition. GIS margin was 15.9%, down 200 basis points. Macro pressure was concentrated in our North American transportation business, which represents a little over half of the segment's revenue, where we coordinate freight for warehouse customers through consolidation, drayage and brokerage services. We buy capacity from carriers on contract and in the spot market, price out to customers mostly on fixed terms and earn the spread.

    接著看第 9 張投影片的 GIS。GIS NOI 約為 5,600 萬美元,年減 13.8%,且低於我們的預期。營收為 3.52 億美元,年減 3.3%;若排除去年西班牙運輸業務處分的影響,則成長 5%。GIS 利潤率為 15.9%,下降 200 個基點。總體壓力主要集中在我們的北美運輸業務,該業務占該部門營收略高於一半;我們透過整併、短途拖運(drayage)與經紀服務,為倉儲客戶協調貨運。我們以合約與現貨市場向承運商購買運力,對客戶多以固定條款報價,並賺取價差。

  • We began pushing through contract rate increases earlier this year, achieving pricing gains in the 5% to 6% range. While execution was strong, the market continued to tighten with rates moving higher into the 8% to 10% range by the third quarter, leaving us effectively playing catch-up. As a result, we are lowering our full year GIS NOI outlook to $231 million to $236 million or negative 8% to negative 6% from negative 4% to negative 2% previously.

    我們今年稍早開始推動合約費率上調,實現了約 5% 至 6% 的定價增幅。儘管執行力道強勁,市場仍持續收緊,費率在第三季進一步上升至 8% 至 10% 的區間,使我們實際上處於追趕狀態。因此,我們將全年 GIS NOI 展望下修至 2.31 億至 2.36 億美元,或年減 8% 至年減 6%,先前為年減 4% 至年減 2%。

  • Year-to-date, GIS NOI is down about 5%, excluding the $7 million legal settlement in the second quarter against a strong 2025 comparison when full year NOI grew 9%. As we reprice contracts and secure capacity, we expect GIS margins to recover meaningfully over the next couple of quarters, just as they have in the past when going through periods of volatility.

    年初至今,若排除第二季 700 萬美元的法律和解金,GIS NOI 約下滑 5%;相較之下,在 2025 年的強勁比較基期下,全年 NOI 成長 9%。隨著我們重新議價合約並確保運能,我們預期 GIS 利潤率將在接下來幾季顯著回升,正如過去在經歷波動期間時一樣。

  • It's important to point out that while we experience a headwind when carrier rates increase, we will enjoy a proportional tailwind when they decline. At the end of the day, food needs to be stored and delivered to the end customer, and our GIS business offers even more compelling value to our customers during periods of elevated transportation rates given their propensity to seek more cost-effective solutions.

    需要指出的是,當承運商費率上升時我們會面臨逆風;而當費率下降時,我們也將享有相應的順風。歸根結底,食品仍需要被儲存並配送至終端客戶;在運輸費率高企期間,鑑於客戶傾向尋求更具成本效益的解決方案,我們的 GIS 業務能為客戶提供更具吸引力的價值。

  • Turning to slide 10. Third quarter revenue was down 1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $317 million, down 7% year-over-year. AFFO was $188 million or $0.73 per share, down 14.1% year-over-year, driven by lower adjusted EBITDA and higher interest expense, largely related to the expiration of hedges.

    接著看第 10 頁投影片。第三季營收年減 1%。調整後 EBITDA 約為 3.17 億美元,年減 7%。AFFO 為 1.88 億美元或每股 0.73 美元,年減 14.1%,主要受調整後 EBITDA 較低與利息費用較高所致,而利息費用上升多與避險到期有關。

  • Administrative expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, was approximately $110 million, below the low end of our $120 million to $125 million quarterly guidance range. Part of that was timing. With management's attention dedicated to the Big Bear response, we traveled less and pushed out training and other expenditures. As our outlook became more cautious, we also scrutinized discretionary spending.

    管理費用(不含以股票為基礎的薪酬)約為 1.10 億美元,低於我們每季指引區間 1.20 億至 1.25 億美元的下緣。其中一部分是時點因素。由於管理層專注於 Big Bear 事件的應對,我們減少出差並延後訓練及其他支出。隨著我們的展望轉趨審慎,我們也更嚴格檢視可自由裁量的支出。

  • So while this is a favorable result for admin, we caution against extrapolating this run rate. That said, our $50 million cost takeout effort is ahead of schedule, and we expect to realize a greater portion of that within 2026. We have, therefore, lowered full year administrative expense guidance again to $457 million to $463 million, which implies about $120 million in the fourth quarter.

    因此,雖然這對管理費用而言是有利的結果,但我們提醒不要將此費用水準外推為常態。儘管如此,我們 5,000 萬美元的成本削減計畫進度超前,且預期在 2026 年可實現其中更大部分。因此,我們再次下修全年管理費用指引至 4.57 億至 4.63 億美元,意味著第四季約為 1.20 億美元。

  • On recurring maintenance capital expenditures, we've lowered full year guidance to $148 million to $155 million from $160 million to $170 million, reflecting procurement savings project batching and improved processes for repositioning material handling equipment across the network. Further, lower taxes and disciplined cash management by our finance team also helped cash flow, driving AFFO ahead of our expectations despite an in-line adjusted EBITDA result.

    在經常性維護資本支出方面,我們將全年指引自 1.60 億至 1.70 億美元下修至 1.48 億至 1.55 億美元,反映採購節省、專案批次化,以及在全網路重新配置物料搬運設備流程的改善。此外,較低的稅負與財務團隊嚴謹的現金管理也有助於現金流,使 AFFO 儘管調整後 EBITDA 符合預期,仍優於我們的預期。

  • Next is an update on capital structure that you can find on slide 11. The figures on this slide are as of September 30, and a few things have moved since quarter end, so I'll cover those as well. We ended the quarter with net debt of approximately $8.1 billion and total liquidity of approximately $371 million. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 6.4 times, and our transaction-adjusted ratio was 5.6 times.

    接下來是資本結構的更新,您可在第 11 頁投影片看到。本頁數據截至 9 月 30 日,而季末後有幾項變動,我也會一併說明。我們在季末的淨負債約為 81 億美元,總流動性約為 3.71 億美元。淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 倍數為 6.4 倍,而交易調整後倍數為 5.6 倍。

  • Two things drove the changes in those metrics since last quarter. First, we retired approximately $1 billion of maturities, which we funded on our revolver. Second, we incurred more than $200 million of costs on Big Bear, primarily to complete cleanup activities and preserve the remaining half of the structure. This came ahead of the insurance proceeds that we now expect in Q4 to offset those outflows.

    自上季以來,這些指標的變動主要由兩項因素驅動。第一,我們償還了約 10 億美元到期債務,資金來自循環信貸額度(revolver)。第二,我們在 Big Bear 事件上發生超過 2 億美元的成本,主要用於完成清理作業並保全剩餘一半的結構。這些支出發生在保險理賠入帳之前;我們目前預期將於第四季收到保險款以抵銷上述現金流出。

  • Now, let me explain what we've accomplished since quarter end. In October, we qualified as a direct eligible borrower under the Farm Credit system, reflecting our important positioning within the food and agribusiness sectors. Last week, we closed a $500 million 7-year unsecured term loan led by CoBank that ranks pari passu with our bank debt. Importantly, this agribusiness-focused financing gives us a differentiated source of capital and access to long-term funding at attractive all-in rates below prevailing market levels for comparable debt structures.

    接著我說明季末以來我們完成了哪些事項。10 月,我們取得 Farm Credit 系統下的直接合格借款人資格,反映我們在食品與農業商務領域的重要定位。上週,我們完成一筆由 CoBank 主導的 5 億美元、7 年期無擔保定期貸款,其順位與我們的銀行債務同等(pari passu)。重要的是,這項以農業商務為核心的融資為我們提供差異化的資本來源,並以具吸引力的整體利率取得長期資金,低於目前市場上可比債務結構的水準。

  • Proceeds were used to repay revolver borrowings, so the transaction is leverage neutral, and it brings pro forma liquidity to approximately $870 million, not including insurance payments received since quarter end, which I'll touch upon now. On Big Bear, our insurers have approved $100 million of insurance payments since quarter end, and we expect to be approved for an additional $200 million before the end of the year. We carry $325 million of coverage and appreciate our insurance responsiveness and support.

    所得款項用於償還循環信貸借款,因此該交易對槓桿水準為中性;並使備考流動性提升至約 8.70 億美元(不含季末後已收到的保險款項,我現在也會說明)。就 Big Bear 而言,我們的保險公司已在季末後核准 1 億美元的保險理賠款,我們預期在年底前還將核准額外 2 億美元。我們的保險保障額度為 3.25 億美元,並感謝保險方的迅速回應與支持。

  • Any recovery of lost profits will be excluded from the adjusted EBITDA line and is not contemplated as part of guidance. Separately, we are pursuing $1 billion of recovery through legal means from the third-party Big Bear solar operators. On our strategic portfolio review, we further narrowed our options and still plan to execute transactions that will create sizable cash proceeds early next year.

    任何對損失利潤的追償將排除在調整後 EBITDA 項目之外,且未納入指引假設。另外,我們正透過法律途徑向第三方 Big Bear 太陽能營運商追償 10 億美元。在策略性資產組合檢視方面,我們進一步縮小選項範圍,仍計畫在明年初執行交易,以取得可觀的現金收入。

  • We expect an outcome that further demonstrates the private market's appetite for high-quality cold storage assets at valuations in excess of how the public markets currently value our company. Recent examples of favorable transactions include our sale of a $29 million Salt Lake City asset to an existing customer at a low 6% cap rate, consistent with the mid-6% cap rate on the Santa Maria sale last December, even in choppy macro conditions. Proceeds will go first to reducing leverage and funding our development pipeline. Taken together, the insurance recoveries and the divestiture proceeds support our commitment to bring our net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio back to 5.0 to 5.5 times target, and we expect meaningful progress towards that goal in the first half of 2027.

    我們預期結果將進一步證明,私募市場對高品質冷鏈倉儲資產的需求旺盛,其估值高於目前公開市場對本公司的估值。近期有利交易的例子包括:我們以約 6% 的低資本化率(cap rate)將鹽湖城一項 2,900 萬美元資產出售給既有客戶;即使在宏觀環境波動之下,該 cap rate 仍與去年 12 月 Santa Maria 出售案的約 6% 中段水準一致。所得款項將優先用於降低槓桿並為我們的開發管線提供資金。綜合而言,保險理賠回收與資產處分所得支持我們將淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 槓桿比率拉回 5.0 至 5.5 倍目標的承諾;我們預期在 2027 年上半年朝該目標取得顯著進展。

  • Our development pipeline, which stands at $1.1 billion invested across 17 projects, is expected to add $130 million of incremental NOI at stabilization. The pipeline is approximately 73% pre-leased, up 200 basis points from the prior quarter. These development projects are low risk as the majority are anchored by customers with long-term commitments. For example, our new state-of-the-art fully automated facility in Hazleton continues to ramp in line with our expectations.

    我們的開發管線目前在 17 個專案上已投入 11 億美元,預期在穩定營運後可新增 1.30 億美元的 NOI。該管線約有 73% 已預先出租,較前一季提高 200 個基點。這些開發專案風險較低,因多數由具長期承諾的客戶作為主力承租方。例如,我們位於 Hazleton 的全新最先進全自動化設施,持續依照我們的預期逐步放量。

  • Turning to our outlook on slide 12. As Greg said, we're updating our full year 2026 guidance. We now expect same-store NOI growth of negative 3% to negative 2%, total warehouse NOI growth of negative 2.5% to negative 1.5%, GIS NOI of $231 million to $236 million or growth of negative 8% to negative 6% administrative expense of $457 million to $463 million, recurring maintenance CapEx of $148 million to $155 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.27 billion. That takes AFFO per share to $2.86 to $2.98, a narrower range with the same midpoint.

    接著看第 12 頁投影片的展望。如 Greg 所說,我們正在更新 2026 全年指引。我們目前預期同店 NOI 成長為年減 3% 至年減 2%,倉儲 NOI 總成長為年減 2.5% 至年減 1.5%,GIS NOI 為 2.31 億至 2.36 億美元或成長為年減 8% 至年減 6%;管理費用為 4.57 億至 4.63 億美元,經常性維護資本支出(CapEx)為 1.48 億至 1.55 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 12.5 億至 12.7 億美元。這使每股 AFFO 為 2.86 至 2.98 美元,區間更窄但中點不變。

  • The $15 million reduction at the adjusted EBITDA midpoint reflects three headwinds and one offset. First, as noted on the right side of this slide, we've raised our estimate of the Big Bear headwind to warehouse NOI and adjusted EBITDA in 2026 from $15 million to $20 million. While the direct impact at the facility remains unchanged at $15 million, we now anticipate an additional $5 million related to a network-wide review of our solar portfolio prompted by the solar fire in June. During that review, some systems were de-energized for additional independent safety inspections. Our solar providers are updating technology components and adopting enhanced maintenance procedures before the systems are reenergized.

    調整後 EBITDA 中點的 1,500 萬美元下調反映了三項逆風與一項抵銷因素。第一,如本頁右側所示,我們將 2026 年 Big Bear 對倉儲 NOI 與調整後 EBITDA 的逆風估計,從 1,500 萬美元上調至 2,000 萬美元。雖然該設施的直接影響仍維持在 1,500 萬美元不變,但我們現在預期,因 6 月的太陽能火災而啟動的全網太陽能資產組合審查,將額外帶來 500 萬美元影響。在該次審查期間,部分系統為了進一步的獨立安全檢測而被斷電。在系統重新通電之前,我們的太陽能供應商正在更新技術元件並採用強化的維護程序。

  • We plan to re-energize the majority of the arrays by early 2027, but the lost solar generation will cost about $5 million this year, split evenly between the third and fourth quarters. This impact alone is expected to reduce same-store NOI results by 75 basis points in the second half. Second, we've modestly lowered our expectations for same-store warehouse activity, reflecting the muted seasonal uplift we discussed earlier and incremental pressure on our import/export business. Third is GIS. Continued carrier rate pressure and the effect of slower import/export activity on our drayage business have prompted a lower full year outlook.

    我們計畫在 2027 年初前讓大多數陣列重新通電,但太陽能發電量的損失將使今年成本約 500 萬美元,並在第三季與第四季平均分攤。僅此一項影響,預期就會使下半年同店 NOI 結果降低 75 個基點。第二,我們小幅下調了對同店倉儲活動的預期,反映我們先前討論的季節性回升偏弱,以及進出口業務面臨的額外壓力。第三是 GIS。持續的承運商運價壓力,以及較慢的進出口活動對我們短途拖運(drayage)業務的影響,促使我們下調全年展望。

  • Fourth, and as an offset is our progress on administrative costs. Congratulations to the team on their hard work. Our $50 million cost reduction plan is ahead of schedule, and we expect to realize a greater portion of that within 2026, as I mentioned. Altogether, we see these headwinds as transitory, and we expect them to normalize over time. Overall, our execution and balance sheet discipline should provide us the foundation to work through the macro headwinds and position us favorably longer term.

    第四項,同時也是抵銷因素,是我們在行政成本方面的進展。恭喜團隊的辛勤付出。我們 5,000 萬美元的成本削減計畫進度超前,且如我所提,我們預期在 2026 年內實現其中更大一部分。總體而言,我們認為這些逆風屬於暫時性,並預期將隨時間推移而恢復正常。整體來看,我們的執行力與資產負債表紀律,應能為我們提供基礎以度過宏觀逆風,並在長期使我們處於更有利的位置。

  • I'll turn it back to Greg for some closing thoughts.

    我把時間交回 Greg,請他做一些結語。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • As you just heard from Robb, while we've adjusted our guidance, I want to reiterate that excluding the directly quantifiable $20 million Big Bear headwind and the $7 million GIS California legal settlement, our current adjusted EBITDA outlook would have been at the upper end of our guidance we provided at the start of the year despite very difficult macro conditions. On Big Bear, the fire was impossible to predict and extremely complex to manage.

    如同你剛才聽到 Robb 所說,雖然我們已調整指引,但我想重申:若排除可直接量化的 2,000 萬美元 Big Bear 逆風,以及 700 萬美元 GIS 加州法律和解金,我們目前的調整後 EBITDA 展望,即使在非常艱難的宏觀環境下,仍會落在我們年初提供指引的上緣。就 Big Bear 而言,這場火災無法預測,且管理起來極其複雜。

  • Following the June 17 fire, our management team stayed deeply involved for months in remediation, customer communication, community support, navigating the challenging L.A. political and media environment and repositioning product flows across our network. While difficult to measure precisely and not included in the $20 million we discussed, the fire had a very real knock-on effect on our ability to solely focus on our company's growth and operational improvement.

    在 6 月 17 日火災之後,我們的管理團隊數月來深度投入修復工作、客戶溝通、社區支援、因應充滿挑戰的洛杉磯政治與媒體環境,並在我們的網路中重新配置產品流向。雖然難以精確衡量且未納入我們所討論的 2,000 萬美元之中,但這場火災確實對我們能否專注於公司成長與營運改善產生了非常真實的連鎖影響。

  • All that said, I wouldn't change how we responded because while we didn't cause this fire, we stepped up and put our community and our customers first in line with our company's culture and values. Putting all that aside, let's not forget industry fundamentals are stabilizing as demand for our categories continues to grow, new supply is falling and idling is taking a major bite out of market capacity.

    即便如此,我也不會改變我們的應對方式;因為雖然這場火災不是我們造成的,但我們挺身而出,依循公司的文化與價值觀,把社區與客戶放在第一位。先把這些放一邊,我們也別忘了產業基本面正在趨於穩定:我們所服務品類的需求持續成長,新供給正在下降,而閒置(idling)正大幅侵蝕市場產能。

  • While certain macro factors weighed on GIS, it remains a key value proposition for our customers and a meaningful long-term value driver for our business. We are also continuing to roll out LinOS, our proprietary warehouse execution platform, which is built to drive efficiencies across our network. LinOS is now at 18 sites growing to 20 by year-end.

    雖然某些宏觀因素對 GIS 造成壓力,但它仍是我們客戶的關鍵價值主張,也是我們業務具意義的長期價值驅動因素。我們也持續推進 LinOS(我們自有的倉儲執行平台)的部署,該平台旨在推動我們整個網路的效率提升。LinOS 目前已在 18 個據點上線,年底將增至 20 個。

  • Most importantly, we are now exceeding our savings targets in aggregate. As we look ahead to 2027, we're not standing still. We are intensely focused on commercial execution, operational continuous improvement, optimizing administrative expense, capital spending and working capital. At the same time, we're leveraging our investments in technology, automation and AI to drive productivity and efficiency across our global network. We believe those initiatives, combined with our scale and operating discipline, position us to deliver meaningful margin improvement and value creation as market conditions normalize.

    最重要的是,我們目前在整體上已超越節省目標。展望 2027 年,我們不會停下腳步。我們高度聚焦於商務執行、營運持續改善、最佳化行政費用、資本支出與營運資金。同時,我們正運用在科技、自動化與 AI 的投資,推動全球網路的生產力與效率提升。我們相信,這些舉措結合我們的規模與營運紀律,將使我們在市場狀況正常化時,能夠實現具意義的利潤率改善與價值創造。

  • Before we move to your questions, I want to thank our global team for their focus, resilience and dedication throughout the year. We will continue executing on the fundamentals, investing strategically and strengthening our position as the world's leading cold chain company.

    在進入提問之前,我想感謝我們全球團隊在今年一整年展現的專注、韌性與投入。我們將持續把基本功做好、策略性投資,並強化我們作為全球領先冷鏈公司的地位。

  • Operator, let's open it up for questions.

    接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    Blaine Heck,富國銀行。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, and good morning. Maybe a bigger picture question on the policy backdrop. With Democrats taking both chambers last week, it seems like there might be more scrutiny of the tariff agenda, but little near-term change given the veto. I guess, is there a 2027 scenario you'd view as a real catalyst for container volumes? Or should we assume today's trade headwinds kind of persist through next year? And more broadly, how do you think any government policy shifts may play out in the food sector?

    很好。謝謝,早安。我想問一個較宏觀、關於政策背景的問題。民主黨上週拿下兩院,看起來關稅議程可能會受到更多審視,但由於否決權,短期內變化不大。我想問的是,你們是否看到某種 2027 年情境,會成為貨櫃量的真正催化劑?或者我們是否應假設當前的貿易逆風會延續到明年?更廣泛地說,你認為任何政府政策轉向在食品產業可能會如何發展?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Great question. So with the Democrats winning both the House and the Senate and affordability literally being the central mandate from Americans, the food industry could realistically see relief for the lower-end consumer. And as you mentioned, increased pushback against tariffs, which could potentially boost the consumer demand and international trade. The House Democrats grocery agenda includes rolling back Trump tariffs and restoring Congress' oversight of trade.

    是的,問得很好。隨著民主黨同時贏得眾議院與參議院,而「可負擔性」確實成為美國民眾的核心訴求,食品產業在現實上可能會看到對低端消費者的紓困。而如你所提,對關稅的反彈可能增加,這可能會提振消費需求與國際貿易。眾議院民主黨的雜貨議程包括撤回川普關稅並恢復國會對貿易的監督。

  • And some of that relief is already happening. I mean the administration lifted 50% tariffs on several Canadian agricultural categories effective just two weeks ago on October 30, including fruit sortation machines and probably more importantly, both corrugated and plastic food packaging, which is a direct cost input to our customers and could provide -- they can pass that cost relief on to the consumer.

    而其中一些紓困其實已經在發生。我的意思是,政府在兩週前、10 月 30 日起,已取消對若干加拿大農業類別的 50% 關稅,包括水果分選機,更重要的是瓦楞紙與塑膠食品包裝;這些都是我們客戶的直接成本投入,並可能帶來——他們可以把成本下降的好處轉嫁給消費者。

  • Also, Democrats have firmly stated that they just won't vote for a farm bill without at least a two -year delay in SNAP cost sharing requirements that were going to shift costs from the federal government to the states, which could have led to additional SNAP reductions. This, again, could support the lower-end consumer who are feeling definitely the most pressure from affordability today.

    此外,民主黨也明確表示:若沒有至少兩年的延後,他們不會對農業法案投票;該延後是針對 SNAP 成本分攤要求,原本該要求會把成本從聯邦政府轉移到各州,可能導致 SNAP 進一步削減。這同樣可能支撐低端消費者——他們在當前可負擔性壓力下無疑承受最大壓力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Griffin, Evercore ISI.

    Michael Griffin,Evercore ISI。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. Just given the expectations for lag seasonality in the fourth quarter, I was wondering if you could expand a bit on your customers' expectations for their inventory, just not in 4Q, but in 2027 as well. It seems like we've troughed on the destocking front, but do you expect inventories to start incrementally rebuilding? Or will the potential revenue benefit for Lineage really come on the new customer win front? And then lastly, any color you can give on how negotiations are going for '27 minimum storage guarantee renewals would be helpful.

    很好。謝謝。考量到你們對第四季季節性滯後的預期,我想請你們多談一些客戶對其庫存的預期,不僅是第四季,也包括 2027 年。看起來我們在去庫存方面已經觸底,但你們是否預期庫存會開始逐步回補?或者 Lineage 潛在的營收受益,主要會來自於贏得新客戶?最後,若能分享一下 2027 年最低儲存保證(minimum storage guarantee)續約談判的進展,也會很有幫助。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Yeah, thanks for your question. So overall, we see stable demand from customers and our second consecutive quarter of same-store occupancy growth is a useful gauge for that. It's obviously difficult to predict the future, but we're encouraged by the improved trend. In addition, if you just listen to the major food producer earnings calls like Conagra and Costco, frozen categories continue to outperform the broader food categories because frozen offers a compelling value prop to the customer with lower prices and less food waste.

    當然。是的,謝謝你的提問。整體而言,我們看到客戶需求保持穩定,而我們連續第二個季度的同店入住率成長,是衡量這一點的有用指標。顯然很難預測未來,但改善的趨勢讓我們受到鼓舞。此外,如果你去聽像 Conagra 和 Costco 這些大型食品生產商的財報電話會議,冷凍品類持續優於更廣泛的食品品類,因為冷凍食品以更低價格與更少食物浪費,為客戶提供了很有吸引力的價值主張。

  • And so just in the last several weeks, we've met with 4 of our top 10 customers. These customers alone hold inventory at over 60 of our facilities and span multiple food categories. And 2 of these customers are seeing inventory levels stable for the balance of the year and through 2027, while the other 2 expect to start to build inventory back in 2027.

    因此,就在過去幾週,我們與前十大客戶中的 4 家會面。僅這些客戶就在我們超過 60 個設施中存放庫存,並涵蓋多個食品品類。其中 2 家客戶認為今年剩餘期間以及直到 2027 年,庫存水位將保持穩定;另外 2 家則預期將在 2027 年開始回補庫存。

  • In addition, as part of these customer conversations, several of our large customers have asked us to support their global supply chain optimization efforts, 2 of which I met with personally. Given the scale and complexity of these initiatives, they chose us to partner with because only the largest companies have the network, the technology, the supply chain design capabilities and maybe most importantly, the operating capabilities to actually execute whatever the study yields.

    另外,作為這些客戶對話的一部分,我們有幾位大型客戶要求我們支援其全球供應鏈最佳化工作,其中有 2 位我親自與其會面。鑑於這些計畫的規模與複雜度,他們選擇與我們合作,因為只有最大的公司才具備網路規模、技術、供應鏈設計能力,以及或許最重要的,真正能把研究結果落地執行的營運能力。

  • And lastly, what we're hearing from customers is that they're increasingly openly concerned about the viability of some of the new competitors and are discussing plans to transition back to the more established players in the market. With regard to volume guarantees, that will be all part of our price negotiations in Q1, and we're just starting to have those conversations now, and we'll have more color on our next call in February.

    最後,我們從客戶那裡聽到的是,他們愈來愈公開地擔心一些新競爭者的可行性,並在討論把業務轉回市場上較成熟的業者的計畫。至於量能保證,那將會是我們在第一季價格談判的一部分;我們現在才剛開始進行這些對話,並會在二月的下一次電話會議提供更多細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的 Ronald Kamdem。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Great. Just want to go back to the same-store NOI. Obviously, a lot happened this year. But given sort of the macro uncertainty, is that down 2% to 3% sort of the right way to think about as the run rate for next year? Or what are the puts and takes for why that could be better or worse as you flip the calendar? Thanks.

    很好。我想回到同店 NOI 的問題。今年顯然發生了很多事。但考量到總體環境的不確定性,明年以 -2% 到 -3% 的降幅作為常態化的運行水準(run rate)來看待,是否比較合理?或者在跨年之際,有哪些因素會讓結果更好或更差?謝謝。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ronald. I'll start by just kind of talking about our strategy going into 2027. Obviously, we haven't even finalized our budgets yet until next month. But our team for 2027 is really focused on six key areas. First of all, advancing our go-to-market and revenue management capabilities.

    謝謝你,Ronald。我先談談我們邁向 2027 年的策略。顯然,我們要到下個月才會最終敲定預算。但我們 2027 年的團隊重點聚焦在六個關鍵領域。第一,提升我們的市場進入(go-to-market)與收益管理能力。

  • And we'll have a lot more to come and talk about in subsequent quarters on our efforts around lead generation, pricing sophistication, customer segmentation and inside sales in coming quarters. But what we've realized is we have an incredibly rich and the richest data set of temperature-controlled food in the world. And we've been pointing our AI, data science, technology capabilities toward the operational side of the house. And what we've realized in the last couple of quarters is there's a lot of opportunity on the go-to-market and revenue management side as well. And so we're shifting that focus now. We've used external expertise in the last couple of quarters to validate the opportunities we think are there, and we're excited to share more about those initiatives in the future.

    接下來幾個季度,我們會就潛在客戶開發(lead generation)、定價精細化、客戶分群以及內勤銷售等方面的努力,分享更多內容。但我們意識到,我們擁有全球最豐富、也是最完整的溫控食品資料集。我們一直把 AI、資料科學與技術能力用在營運端。而在過去幾個季度我們發現,在市場進入與收益管理端同樣存在很大的機會。因此我們現在正在把重點轉向那一端。過去幾個季度我們也借助外部專業來驗證我們所認為存在的機會,我們很期待未來能分享更多這些計畫的進展。

  • Secondly, just leveraging our tech investments to achieve additional and further productivity gains. I feel great about that. LinOS is going great. We have a bunch of other technologies that we're rolling out, and we're ever expanding our lean efforts around the network. So I feel really good about the ability to continue to drive cost down and offset inflation.

    第二,是運用我們的科技投資來取得更多、進一步的生產力提升。我對此非常有信心。LinOS 進展非常順利。我們還在推行一系列其他技術,並且持續在整個網路擴大精實(lean)改善工作。因此我對於持續降低成本、抵銷通膨的能力感到非常樂觀。

  • Next is just achieving closer to inflationary level price increases. Our team is focused on that. As I mentioned, those discussions are already happening. Fourth, we'll continue to control the controllables such as admin and CapEx, like we've been very successful this year. That isn't done. There's certainly more work to do there. And then we talked about in the prepared remarks, GIS being under kind of undue pressure right now because of carrier rates, and we'll be looking to reset those margins and our customer rates to match the increase in carrier rates.

    接下來,是讓價格調升更接近通膨水準。我們的團隊正專注於此。如我所提到的,這些討論已經在進行。第四,我們會像今年做得很成功一樣,持續管控可控項目,例如管理費用與資本支出(CapEx)。這項工作還沒結束。那裡確實還有更多工作要做。另外,我們在事先準備的講稿中也提到,GIS 目前因承運費率而承受某種程度上不成比例的壓力;我們將尋求重設這些利潤率以及對客戶的費率,以匹配承運費率的上升。

  • And then finally, we expect to achieve our target leverage ratio next year through strategic transactions to maintain our investment-grade rating. Robb, I don't know if you want to provide any color or puts and takes.

    最後,我們預期明年將透過策略性交易達成目標槓桿比率,以維持我們的投資級評等。Robb,我不知道你是否想補充一些細節或利弊因素。

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, I think you covered most of it, Greg. I mean just talking through the actual metrics that you guys probably start your model on. On the volume side, I think we'll see how the fourth quarter goes. We were entering 2027, obviously, the second and third quarter, we were seeing a positive occupancy and seeing the throughput balance kind of stabilize. We'll see how the fourth quarter goes.

    不,我想你大致都涵蓋了,Greg。我是說,就你們可能用來建立模型的實際指標來談。在量的方面,我想我們要看看第四季的表現。我們進入 2027 年時,顯然在第二季與第三季,我們看到入住率轉為正成長,吞吐量的平衡也開始趨於穩定。我們會看看第四季的走勢。

  • Of course, we've highlighted that, that is going to be down a little bit as we enter 2027. So you enter a little bit lower there on the volume side. So you're right, a little bit more of the same there. Greg then mentioned that we hope to have kind of a better offset, if you will, on price, and we did have some pretty good headwinds on mix. So we'll see how that plays out, but that could offset some of that volume pressure that we're seeing as we enter the year.

    當然,我們也已經強調過,進入 2027 年時這會小幅下滑。所以在量的面向,你是以稍低的基礎進入新年度。因此你說得對,會有點延續目前的狀況。Greg 也提到,我們希望在價格上能有更好的抵銷效果;而在組合(mix)方面,我們確實面臨一些相當不利的逆風。所以我們會看看這會如何發展,但它可能抵銷我們在進入年度時所看到的部分量的壓力。

  • And then margins have been a challenging circumstance. Of course, there's been inflation out there. And so when you have a flattish top line in '26 and potentially in '27, that's just hard to offset that. So we're watching margin. We're doing all the productivity stuff that Greg talked about, hoping we can kind of manage margin there.

    接著,利潤率一直是個具挑戰性的情況。當然,外部存在通膨。因此當你在 2026 年的營收大致持平,而 2027 年也可能如此時,要抵銷通膨就會很困難。所以我們正在密切關注利潤率。我們也在做 Greg 所提到的所有生產力相關工作,希望能在那裡把利潤率管理住。

  • Greg talked about on the non-same-store side, you do have the annualization of Big Bear, that's in my mind. And so we'll see how that plays out and how we can move that volume into other parts of the network. And ultimately, by the second half, sort of see that building nicely, but that will be a pressure. I think Greg covered GIS well. We, of course, don't have the $7 million settlement that was a headwind to 2026.

    Greg 談到非同店的部分,你確實會有 Big Bear 的全年化影響,這是我心中的一個因素。因此我們會看看這會如何發展,以及我們如何把那部分量移轉到網路的其他區域。最終在下半年,應該會看到那部分逐步建立得不錯,但這會帶來壓力。我認為 Greg 對 GIS 的說明很到位。當然,我們也不會再有那筆 700 萬美元的和解金,該項在 2026 年形成了逆風。

  • It will take a quarter or two, but I expect by the second half that, that will stabilize. And then further down, I'm really proud of the team on admin. I would say we're combating inflation there, but we have really set in a new culture. It's not just about the $50 million campaign that we have. We'll obviously get a kind of annualization of that. But also, I just feel better about everybody looking under the hood to try to figure out continuous improvement on those areas. So when you blend that all up, I think those are kind of the inputs from a math standpoint as you guys build out your model.

    這需要一到兩個季度,但我預期到下半年就會趨於穩定。再往下看,我對團隊在管理費用方面的表現非常自豪。我會說我們正在那裡對抗通膨,但我們確實建立了一種新的文化。這不只是我們那個 5,000 萬美元專案(campaign)的事。我們顯然也會看到那項的全年化效益。但同時,我也更有信心,大家都在深入檢視,試圖在這些領域找出持續改善的機會。所以把這些都綜合起來,我認為這些就是你們在建立模型時,從數學角度來看的主要輸入項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    Michael Goldsmith,瑞銀。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the supply side, you've highlighted roughly 4% of US cold storage capacity being idled and now you're hearing customers express concerns about the viability of some newer competitors. So in markets where capacity has been idled or competitors are under pressure, are you actually seeing an improvement in new business pricing or renewal economics yet? And how does that compare with markets that remain oversupplied?

    早安。非常感謝讓我提問。或許先從供給端開始,你們提到約有 4% 的美國冷藏倉儲產能已被閒置,而你們現在也聽到客戶對一些較新的競爭對手的可行性表達擔憂。所以在那些產能已被閒置或競爭對手承受壓力的市場,你們是否已經看到新業務定價或續約經濟性有所改善?這與仍然供給過剩的市場相比如何?

  • And then as well, just as you win that business, are those volumes coming in at pricing and margins comparable with the existing portfolio? Or are there introductory rates or other concessions involved in winning that share? Thanks.

    另外,當你們贏得這些業務時,這些量進來的定價與毛利是否與既有組合相當?還是為了拿下市占會有導入期費率或其他讓利?謝謝。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Great question. So as you mentioned, new supply is slowing materially. New additions have come from 8 million down to 3 million. And just between us and Americold, we've taken out 9 million square feet of capacity or 4% just over the past two years. So cold storage is clearly going through a period of rationalization, and we expect there to be winners and losers with the larger, more sophisticated providers like Lineage coming out ahead. It's not too different than the beef or potato industries, our customers where capacity is getting rationalized there because they were -- just because of interest rate dynamics in those two categories.

    是的。問得很好。如你所提到的,新供給正在明顯放緩。新增供給已從 800 萬降到 300 萬。而且僅我們與 Americold,在過去兩年就移除了 900 萬平方英尺的產能,約 4%。因此冷藏倉儲顯然正處於理性化的階段,我們預期會有贏家與輸家,像 Lineage 這類規模更大、能力更成熟的供應商將會勝出。這與牛肉或馬鈴薯產業並沒有太大不同;我們的客戶在那兩個品類也在進行產能理性化,主要是因為那兩個品類的利率動態所致。

  • But as the world's largest by a wide margin, we just have advantages that are hard to replicate. Our network scale gives us the ability to shift customer volume around the system in ways that subscale operators just can't do, just like we're doing right now in the West after the Big Bear fire. You add our technology platform, particularly LinOS, our purchasing power, our customer relationships at the CEO level and our ability to put capital into sophisticated automated facilities, those advantages compound and deepen our moat.

    但作為全球最大、且領先幅度很大的業者,我們確實具備難以複製的優勢。我們的網路規模讓我們能以小型業者做不到的方式,在系統內調度客戶貨量,就像我們現在在西部因 Big Bear 火災所做的那樣。再加上我們的科技平台,特別是 LinOS、我們的採購力、我們在 CEO 層級的客戶關係,以及我們能投入資本建置高階自動化設施的能力,這些優勢會相互疊加並加深我們的護城河。

  • And so what we're seeing really fits what we'd expect at this point in the cycle, operators have overexpanded, those that lack the capital to absorb this environment or lack the scale are clearly under pressure, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of competitor exits in the coming quarters. As those situations resolve, whether that's through exits, asset sales, restructurings, we think we're uniquely positioned to become the natural home for that business and in some cases, the assets. We are seeing customers come back. We are seeing more pricing power in markets that recovered, as you alluded to, and the pricing that we're winning business back at is comparable to the existing rates in those markets.

    因此我們看到的情況其實符合我們在此週期階段的預期:業者過度擴張,那些缺乏資本以承受此環境或缺乏規模的業者顯然正承受壓力;我們也不會意外在接下來幾季看到幾家競爭對手退出。隨著這些情況透過退出、資產出售或重整而逐步解決,我們認為我們具備獨特優勢,能成為這些業務(在某些情況下也包括資產)的自然承接方。我們確實看到客戶回流。我們也在如你所暗示、已復甦的市場看到更強的定價能力,而我們贏回業務的價格與那些市場既有費率相當。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Joseph, Citi.

    Nick Joseph,花旗。

  • Nick Joseph - Analyst

    Nick Joseph - Analyst

  • Thanks. Appreciate it. Maybe just following up on that last question. Can you give us an update and the plan for the idled facilities?

    謝謝。很感謝。或許就接續上一題。你們能否更新一下被閒置設施的狀況與計畫?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Absolutely. So we've idled 10 facilities last year, 6 so far this year, removing 2.6 million square feet and about 212,000 pallet positions of capacity. And as I mentioned, 4% came out with just us and Americold, which is meaningful. We were going to continue to explore, I'd say, a handful of incremental opportunities for consolidation. But keep in mind that we have relatively fewer opportunities just because we have relatively higher occupancy. And so we're still looking at that, but I wouldn't think there'll be another 16 in the next 2 years.

    當然可以。所以我們去年閒置了 10 座設施,今年迄今又閒置了 6 座,合計移除 260 萬平方英尺、約 212,000 個棧板位的產能。如我提到的,僅我們與 Americold 就移除了 4%,這是相當可觀的。我們會持續探索,我會說,少數幾個額外的整併機會。但請記得,我們相對可做的機會較少,因為我們的入住率相對較高。所以我們仍在評估,但我不認為未來兩年還會再有 16 座。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

    Caitlin Burrows,高盛。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just on the storage revenue per occupied pallet and the RSB, you mentioned that price was actually up, I think, within your 1% to 2% target. I was just wondering if you can go through kind of the pricing side, what you're seeing, but some of the other impacts that might be, or some of the other inputs that might be resulting in that outcome, mix, et cetera?

    嗨,各位早安。想請教一下每個已佔用棧板的倉儲收入以及 RSB,你們提到價格其實是上升的,我想是在你們 1% 到 2% 的目標區間內。我想請你們談談定價端你們看到的情況,以及可能導致這個結果的其他影響或其他投入因素,例如組合(mix)等等?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So thanks, Caitlin. We'll achieve what we set out to do, which was 1% to 2% net price this year. Moving into next year, we're going to be focusing on exceeding that range and getting closer to inflationary level increases. We are having those conversations now.

    好的。謝謝你,Caitlin。我們會達成我們原先設定的目標,也就是今年淨價格上調 1% 到 2%。進入明年,我們會聚焦在超越這個區間,並更接近通膨水準的調漲。我們現在就正在進行這些對話。

  • But we'll have a really good sense of where we sit by our next call in February as the majority of our contracts reset in the first quarter. And certainly, as you mentioned, mix is weighing on our revenue per pallet metrics, especially with container volumes being down so much and carrying such substantial service revenue and high rent, storage, and blast revenue.

    不過,等到我們下一次在二月的電話會議時,隨著多數合約在第一季重設,我們就會很清楚我們所處的位置。而且如你所提到的,組合正在拖累我們每棧板收入的指標,特別是貨櫃量下滑幅度很大,而貨櫃業務通常帶來相當可觀的服務收入以及較高的租金、倉儲與急凍(blast)收入。

  • So -- but again, taking a step back, if you look at the long term, we've seen a 20-year trend of growth in international trade, and this has been a very challenging, I'll say, episodic period. And so our view is what we're experiencing today is more of a period of disruption versus a structural change. And as that shifts, you'll see our external pricing metrics improve accordingly.

    所以——但再退一步看,若看長期,我們看到國際貿易在過去 20 年呈現成長趨勢,而這段期間我會說是一個非常具挑戰性的、事件性的階段。因此我們的看法是,我們今天所經歷的更像是一段擾動期,而非結構性改變。當情況轉變時,你會看到我們的外部定價指標也會相應改善。

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I might just add, I saw a couple of notes talking about RSB pricing versus services per throughput pricing. I generally look at those together. So that's comment number one, Caitlin, for you just to call that out. I would also say on the RSB side, just be cognizant that last year, we did have a really good outcome there.

    是的,我可能補充一下:我看到有幾份報告在談 RSB 定價相對於每吞吐量的服務定價。我通常會把兩者一起看。所以這是第一點,Caitlin,我特別提醒你注意。另外我也想說,在 RSB 方面,請留意去年我們在那裡的表現其實非常好。

  • And so you have a little bit tougher comp. Also when you just compare Q2 to Q3 of some of those metrics, we did lose FX, right, 100 basis points when you think about your Q2 versus your Q3. So that's something to keep in mind. And then lastly, as Greg said, I think we've talked a lot about mix within the services per throughput pallet area, but we do have mix on the RSB side. Specifically, seafood carries a little bit of a higher RSB per pallet.

    因此今年的比較基期會稍微更具挑戰。此外,當你把其中一些指標從第二季與第三季做比較時,匯率(FX)確實帶來了影響;以第二季對第三季來看,大約少了 100 個基點。所以這點要記在心上。最後,如 Greg 所說,我們談了很多每吞吐棧板的服務端的組合,但在 RSB 端也有組合影響。具體而言,海鮮每棧板的 RSB 會略高一些。

  • I think Greg outlined the pressure that we've seen there. So when you blend all that up, we're not looking at the RSB pricing as anything of an anomaly. And as we roll into next year, we'll look at the two together. And again, we're looking to grow that from a pure price standpoint, and then you'll have either positive or negative mix in and around that. But I think we'll have less of those pressures in 2027 than we had in 2026.

    我想 Greg 已經概述了我們在那裡看到的壓力。所以把這些因素綜合起來看,我們不認為 RSB 定價有任何異常。而當我們進入明年,我們會把這兩者一起看。同樣地,從純價格角度我們希望推動成長,然後在此之上會有正向或負向的組合影響。但我認為 2027 年這些壓力會比 2026 年少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Guglielmo, Capital One Securities.

    Daniel Guglielmo,第一資本證券。

  • Daniel Guglielmo - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Guglielmo - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. You all referenced the land bank in your investor deck and the 51 completed greenfields and expansions since 2019. What does the cold storage demand environment need to look like in order for you all to start leveraging that pipeline for growth? The cost of capital is obviously a consideration as well. But any commentary you have would be helpful.

    嗨,各位。謝謝讓我提問。你們在投資人簡報中提到土地儲備(land bank),以及自2019年以來完成的51個綠地開發與擴建案。要讓你們開始運用這條成長管線來推動成長,冷鏈倉儲的需求環境需要呈現什麼樣的狀況?資本成本顯然也是一項考量。但任何你們能提供的看法都會很有幫助。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean demand for new builds will be customer-driven. We meet with our customers every single week. They're all continuously for decades, optimizing their supply chains. We are at the table with their C-suite doing that. And when they determine they need a new node or there's a current market that is overcapacity, that's when we'll look to build. We're obviously -- capital is extremely valuable right now, and we're scrutinizing all expenditures more than we ever have. But we do see opportunities to grow alongside our customers as the quarters progress here.

    是的。我的意思是,新建案的需求會由客戶驅動。我們每週都會與客戶會面。他們數十年來一直在持續優化其供應鏈。我們也會與他們的高階管理團隊(C-suite)一起參與這些討論。當他們判斷需要新增一個節點,或某個現有市場出現供給過剩時,我們就會評估興建。很明顯地——目前資本非常珍貴,我們對所有支出審視得比以往任何時候都更嚴格。但隨著接下來幾季的推進,我們確實看到能與客戶一同成長的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC.

    RBC 的 Michael Carroll。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks, Greg. I was looking at two of the issues that you're highlighting during the call, I guess, one being the trade issue. Is that getting better? Or is at least you're starting to go against easy comps, so it's not getting worse from here? Obviously, I think that was the thought last quarter. Obviously, there was an update this quarter that kind of implies that you do think it's going to get weaker from here.

    是的。謝謝,Greg。我在看你們在電話會議中強調的兩個議題,我想其中一個是貿易問題。這個情況有在改善嗎?或者至少你們開始面對比較容易的比較基期,所以不會再從這裡變得更糟?顯然,我認為上季是這樣的想法。但這一季的更新似乎暗示你們確實認為接下來會走弱。

  • And the second one is on the GIS business. How quickly can you reprice that business to regain those margins? And is there a risk that those customers won't take those increases and try to rethink about their business? Or is it -- should we just think about margins recovering in the next one to two quarters or so on the GIS side?

    第二個是關於 GIS 業務。你們能多快重新定價這項業務以恢復那些毛利率?是否存在風險:那些客戶不接受這些漲價,轉而重新思考他們的業務安排?或者——我們是否應該預期 GIS 端的毛利率在接下來一到兩季左右就會回升?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Michael. Both good questions. I'll start with GIS. So we definitely think that we'll get these carrier rates back. This is a carrier rate issue. It's not driven by fuel prices. We have already gotten rate increases, but the rates have continued to really skyrocket over the last three quarters. And so we've seen these cycles before. And in 2022, as trucking capacity normalized, we reset pricing with customers and our margins in North American Transportation recovered meaningfully within a couple of quarters and continue to improve thereafter.

    是的。謝謝,Michael。兩個都是好問題。我先從 GIS 談起。我們確實認為可以把這些承運商費率拉回來。這是承運商費率的問題。並不是由燃油價格所驅動。我們已經取得了費率調升,但過去三季費率仍持續大幅飆升。我們以前也看過這些循環。而在2022年,隨著卡車運能回到正常,我們與客戶重設定價,我們北美運輸業務的毛利率在幾季內就明顯回升,之後也持續改善。

  • So we believe this cycle is no different as we work through contract repricing and allow -- just align our pricing to current market conditions. And again, this is not a fuel recovery issue, which I saw in some of the early notes because our fuel automatically resets every week. This is simply about aligning our buy and sell rates with our customer and carrier partners. As far as the customers not awarding us these increases, I don't see that as a real risk because the rates are what they are, right? And we -- and they don't have a better option.

    因此,我們相信這一輪循環也不例外;我們會透過合約重新定價來推進,並且——讓我們的定價與目前市場狀況對齊。再強調一次,這不是燃油回收(fuel recovery)問題;我看到一些早期的報告有這樣寫,但我們的燃油附加費每週都會自動重設。這純粹是把我們的買入與賣出費率,與客戶及承運商夥伴的條件對齊。至於客戶不把這些漲價給我們,我不認為那是真正的風險,因為費率就是那樣,對吧?而且他們也沒有更好的選擇。

  • They're using us because generally, we can consolidate them with other customers and move less than truckload shipments into truckload shipments, which have inherently significantly lower landed cost. And lastly, I'll just say, while GIS is under pressure right now, and it is, I guess, a relatively larger segment for us than some of our peers, we see this as absolutely critical to our total customer value proposition.

    他們使用我們,是因為一般而言,我們可以把他們與其他客戶的貨量做整併,將零擔(LTL)運輸整合成整車(TL)運輸,而整車的到岸成本(landed cost)本質上顯著更低。最後我想說,雖然 GIS 目前確實承受壓力,而且相較部分同業,它對我們而言可能是較大的部門,但我們認為這對我們整體的客戶價值主張至關重要。

  • The majority of our customers' costs are on the transportation side versus the warehousing side and being able to offer not only supply chain design and optimization, but truly execute farm to fork is a critical benefit for our customers and our relationships. So going to your second question on containers, international container volumes are about 15% of our warehouse throughput, as we've talked about. And volumes down almost 14% year-over-year through three quarters.

    我們多數客戶的成本主要在運輸端,而不是倉儲端;能夠提供不只是供應鏈設計與優化,還能真正把「從農場到餐桌(farm to fork)」落地執行,對客戶與我們的合作關係而言是關鍵優勢。回到你第二個關於貨櫃的問題:如同我們談過的,國際貨櫃量約占我們倉庫吞吐量的15%。而在前三季,貨量年減接近14%。

  • We had a really, I'll call it, easy comp in the fourth quarter of last year with it being down, I think it was 8%, Robb. And so we expected a little bit of growth in our last call in the fourth quarter, not a lot, but a little. And with oil going from $75 to $100, we're seeing continued pressure in that area. And so this reduced international trade definitely has a meaningful earnings impact as these categories such as seafood, are under significant pressure. A good example of this is the -- there's been a 40% reduction in the salmon catch in Alaska this season, a product that flows directly through our Seattle operations into the rest of the United States, largely because fishermen have limited their trips out to sea due to high fuel prices.

    去年第四季的比較基期相當容易,我會這麼說,因為當時是下滑的,我記得是8%吧,Robb。因此在上次電話會議時,我們預期第四季會有一點成長,不多,但會有一些。而隨著油價從75美元漲到100美元,我們看到該領域持續承壓。因此,國際貿易的減少確實對獲利有顯著影響,因為像海鮮這類品項正面臨很大壓力。一個很好的例子是——本季阿拉斯加鮭魚捕撈量減少了40%;這項產品會直接流經我們西雅圖的營運據點,再配送到美國其他地區,而主要原因是燃油價格高,使得漁民減少出海次數。

  • And so -- but as we've discussed, this is inherently high-margin business and a rebound in container or seafood volumes would provide a meaningful tailwind to throughput, to occupancy to earnings just as we've seen in prior cycles. And so in the meantime, we're not sitting still and waiting. We are diversifying some of these port locations with domestic business, and we're having pretty good success on that front.

    因此——但如同我們討論過的,這本質上是高毛利的業務;若貨櫃量或海鮮量回升,將如同過去循環所見,對吞吐量、出租率(occupancy)與獲利帶來顯著順風。同時,我們不會坐等。我們正在以國內業務來分散其中一些港口據點的組合,而且在這方面取得相當不錯的成果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

    Truist Securities 的 Michael Lewis。

  • Michael Lewis - Analyst

    Michael Lewis - Analyst

  • Thank you. You mentioned the $130 million of incremental stabilized NOI still to come from the developments. I thought I heard you say the NOI ramp is in line with your expectations. Maybe you could confirm that. And then are you able to share how much of that NOI you expect to earn over the next year or some sense of the cadence of that coming online? I see some of these projects were completed two or three years ago and still are less than halfway to stabilized. And then more than half of that NOI is coming from projects that are still in process. So how should we think about this starting to kind of flow through?

    謝謝。你提到開發案仍將帶來1.30億美元的新增穩定後 NOI(incremental stabilized NOI)。我想我聽到你說 NOI 的爬坡(ramp)符合你們的預期。也許你可以確認一下。另外,你們是否能分享其中有多少 NOI 預期會在未來一年內實現,或是提供一個上線節奏(cadence)的概念?我看到其中一些專案在兩、三年前就已完工,但距離穩定仍不到一半。而且超過一半的 NOI 來自仍在進行中的專案。所以我們應該如何看待這些開始逐步反映到財務表現上?

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks. Great question. Yeah, you're referring to page 20 of the supplemental, we laid that out. Yeah, there really hasn't been substantial changes. Of course, different projects move out of that 25 months to 36 months, and that's what moves the math. That becomes part of your base. But the incremental NOI that we have is right in line with what we've been showing in the past couple of quarters. So there's different projects in there that are outperforming and ones that are meeting plan. So you always have a little bit of a mix of what's in the different buckets. Nothing notable.

    是的,謝謝。好問題。你指的是補充資料(supplemental)的第20頁,我們在那裡做了說明。是的,整體來說並沒有實質性的變化。當然,不同專案會從25個月移到36個月,這就是影響計算的地方。那會成為你基期的一部分。但我們目前的新增 NOI 與過去幾季所揭露的水準一致。因此,其中有些專案表現優於預期,也有些符合計畫。所以不同區間(bucket)裡的組合總會有些混合。沒有什麼特別值得注意的。

  • And then in terms of the cadence, I think you're exactly right. If you think about specifically a big part of this incremental NOI would come from the projects that we have around Tyson's. And I think you know that those are ramping starting in '28 and '29. So you kind of have another year to wait as we mature the construction on this and then you really see a nice uplift in '28 and '29. '27 will get a little modest, but ultimately, the big jump happens in '28 and '29.

    接著就節奏而言,我認為你的判斷完全正確。如果你具體去想,這部分新增的 NOI(淨營運收入)很大一部分會來自我們在 Tyson's 周邊的專案。而且我想你也知道,這些專案會從 2028 年、2029 年開始逐步爬坡。所以在我們把這些建設逐步成熟之前,你大概還需要再等一年,然後你會在 2028 年和 2029 年看到相當不錯的上升幅度。2027 年會有一些小幅提升,但最終,大幅跳升會發生在 2028 年和 2029 年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

    Mike Mueller,摩根大通。

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

    Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi. I know recurring CapEx can be a function of how much facilities are used. The CapEx has been running low compared to expectations when you IPO-ed for some time. If the environment stays kind of muted another year or so, can the CapEx level stay down around where it is? Or does there need to be kind of a snapback catch-up?

    是的,你好。我知道經常性資本支出(CapEx)可能會取決於設施的使用程度。相較於你們 IPO 時的預期,CapEx 一段時間以來一直偏低。如果環境在接下來一年左右仍然相對低迷,CapEx 水準能否維持在目前附近?還是需要出現某種「反彈式」的補做追趕?

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. No, there is not -- we don't plan for a snapback catch-up. We are truly -- we outlined in the prepared remarks that we're scrutinizing kind of every dollar, whether it's bundling projects, whether through procurement, whether it's looking at MHE and moving that around more efficiently. So we're trying to find a bottom on that. We're just getting more efficient. And I'm just passing my one-year anniversary here. I think we'll continue to just try to scrutinize every dollar. We'll see as we look out to '27, '28. We don't see a snapback. In fact, we just keep getting more and more efficient.

    是的。不,沒有——我們不會規劃那種反彈式的補做追趕。我們確實——我們在事先準備的發言中也提到,我們正在審視幾乎每一塊錢的支出,不論是把專案打包、透過採購,或是檢視物料搬運設備(MHE)並更有效率地調度使用。所以我們正在努力找出那個底部。我們只是變得更有效率。而我也剛好快滿一週年。我想我們會持續盡力審視每一塊錢。我們會再看看展望到 2027、2028 年的情況。我們不認為會有反彈。事實上,我們只會變得越來越有效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Viktor Fediv, Scotiabank.

    Viktor Fediv,加拿大豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Viktor Fediv - Senior Associate

    Viktor Fediv - Senior Associate

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. So earlier today, you mentioned that you're expecting a weaker second half inventory build this year, partly due to inflationary pressures. But can you provide some additional context on what actually drove last year's stronger build that isn't repeating today? And what are you seeing through October on throughput and inventories? And lastly, given the potentially weaker Q4 exit point, should we also expect a more muted sequential occupancy decline in Q1 of '27?

    謝謝,各位早安。所以今天稍早你們提到,今年預期下半年庫存補庫會較弱,部分原因是通膨壓力。但你們能否補充一些背景:去年庫存補庫較強,究竟是什麼因素驅動,而今年沒有重演?另外,截至 10 月你們看到的吞吐量(throughput)與庫存狀況如何?最後,考量第四季期末(exit point)可能較弱,我們是否也應該預期 2027 年第一季的入住率(occupancy)季對季下滑會更為溫和?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I'll start there, Robb. So yeah, I think the biggest impact -- there's always impacts to different commodities around the world. The potato crop in Central Europe was lower than expected this year, which meant a lower harvest and less occupancy build through the fourth quarter. I think the biggest impact is the import/export and a substantial jump in fuel prices versus what we expected. It just puts additional pressure on our customers' interest rates didn't help.

    那我先從這裡開始,Robb。是的,我想最大的影響——全球不同商品一直都會有各種影響因素。今年中歐的馬鈴薯作物產量低於預期,代表收成較少,因此第四季的入住率增長也比較少。我認為最大的影響是進出口,以及燃料價格相較我們原先預期出現大幅上升。這對我們客戶造成額外壓力,而利率上升也沒有幫上忙。

  • And then both of those things impact the end consumer. But I think the biggest single pressure there was the import/export container volume versus our expectations.

    然後這兩件事都會影響到終端消費者。但我認為其中最大的單一壓力,是進出口貨櫃量相較我們預期的落差。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    Vikram Malhotra,瑞穗(Mizuho)。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to clarify two things, I guess. One, you've talked about asset sales or I guess, strategic sales likely later this year was the expectation. I think you're referencing first half '27. So maybe just update us there, what type of assets? Is there a delay because of rates and what you're seeing? And then just can you clarify the last question? How much visibility do you actually have on occupancy and say, the margin going into 1Q '27?

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想釐清兩件事。第一,你們談到資產出售,或說策略性出售,原本預期可能在今年稍晚進行。但我想你們現在提到的是 2027 年上半年。所以能否更新一下:會是什麼類型的資產?是否因為利率以及你們看到的市場狀況而延後?另外也請釐清上一個問題:你們對 2027 年第一季的入住率,以及例如利潤率(margin)到底有多少能見度?

  • Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb Lemasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Yeah. So yes, still feeling like we've identified the proper assets each quarter that we've given you an update. We're sort of in our mind, narrowing down to just a couple of transactions. Each one of those has good buyer interest. And so we have -- we do have options. You're exactly right that we're still committed to bringing the cash in the door in the first half. So no change there. Of course, deal timing and announcement around holidays, of course, moves around week-to-week, but the cash will be in the door. So we're feeling really good about that.

    當然。是的。所以,是的,我們仍然覺得我們已經在每一季更新中識別出合適的資產。我們在心裡大概已經收斂到只剩下幾筆交易。每一筆都有不錯的買方興趣。因此我們——我們確實有選項。你說得完全對,我們仍然承諾在上半年把現金帶進來。所以這點沒有改變。當然,交易時點以及在假期前後的公告時程,會按週有所變動,但現金會進來。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

  • And then in terms of visibility for the first and second quarter, right, we're trying to close out the fourth quarter that sets us up for what's going to happen next year. And so we're cautiously optimistic as the environment sort of heals that the fourth quarter will provide us a little bit of a lower entry point. But then as we move into first and second quarter, we'll see what happens.

    至於第一季和第二季的能見度,對吧,我們正努力把第四季收尾,這會為明年將發生的事情奠定基礎。因此,隨著環境逐步修復,我們抱持審慎樂觀,認為第四季會讓我們有一個稍微較低的起點。但接著進入第一季和第二季,我們就再看看會如何發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That is all the time we have today for questions. Apologies to those whose questions we did not get to. I will now turn the call back over to Ki Bin Kim for closing remarks.

    我們今天的提問時間就到這裡。很抱歉有些人的問題我們來不及回答。我現在把電話交回給 Ki Bin Kim 做結語。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining our third quarter conference call. Have a good week.

    謝謝各位參加我們第三季的電話會議。祝各位本週愉快。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, everybody.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。