Li-Cycle Holdings Corp (LICY) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day. My name is Britney, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the fourth quarter and full year 2021 Li-Cycle Holdings Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Nahla Azmy, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Britney. Good morning, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today for Li-Cycle's review of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results ended October 31. First, we will start today with a brief video, then we will follow with formal remarks from Tim Johnston, Co-Founder, Executive Chairman; Ajay Kochhar, Co-Founder, President; and Bruce MacInnis, Chief Financial Officer. Debbie Simpson, our CFO effective February 1, is also joining us for the Q&A session to follow.

Ahead of this call, Li-Cycle issued press releases, a video and a presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.li-cycle.com. On this call, management will be making statements based on current expectations, plans, estimates and assumptions, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements. If any of our assumptions are incorrect, including because of factors discussed in today's press releases, during this conference call and in our past reports and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Ontario Securities Commission in Canada. These documents can be found on our website at investors.li-cycle.com.

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, made during this call or from time to time to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required.

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call to Tim.

(presentation)

Thanks, Nahla, and Good morning. We hope you enjoyed the video and came away with the sense of how mobilized and excited we are about Li-Cycle's future growth prospects. As you can see, we are positioning the company to be the leading innovative and environmental recycler of lithium-ion batteries and a key secondary source of critical battery materials. Through these 2 roles, we are effectively closing the loop for the expanding battery material supply chain in key growth markets. 2021 was a landmark year for Li-Cycle. We significantly and successfully ramped up the implementation of our Spoke & Hub network strategy, particularly in North America, addressing the growing market and customer needs to secure supply domestically.

Before I review the highlights of the year, I would like to take the opportunity to welcome Debbie Simpson, who is taking over as CFO on February 1. Some time ago, we announced that Bruce MacInnis plans to retire in January. We want to thank him for his contribution and key role in taking Li-Cycle public, and we wish him well in his retirement.

Beginning on Slide 3, for a review of our progress in key areas. First, on strategy. Starting off with a strong balance sheet, we made significant strides in long-term strategic partnership arrangements with 2 leading global participants, validating Li-Cycle's business model. The first is with Koch Strategic Platforms, which invested $100 million through the purchase of a convertible note. KSP has been rapidly growing in investments related to energy transformation, specifically within the electrification ecosystem. In addition to the capital investment by KSP, this partnership provides Li-Cycle a strategic opportunity to deploy Koch's engineering powers in spoke fabrication, spoke deployment and hub operational readiness.

The second meaningful alliance is with LG Chem and LG Energy Solutions. LGC is a leading global chemical company with expertise in active battery materials manufacturing. LGES is the largest global lithium-ion battery manufacturer for electric vehicles outside of China. By mid-March, both have plans to invest a total of $50 million in Li-Cycle. Upon completion of the commercial agreements for the battery supplier to our spokes and off-take on nickel sulphate from our hub.

In addition to the development of these key external stakeholder relationships, we have been building and aligning the internal leadership team. We've made recent key business and finance leadership hires and realigned to a regional structure to more effectively support the acceleration of the company's global growth plans. Under the new structure, regional presidents will oversee recycling operations, commercial activities and business development activities in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific.

Core to Li-Cycles operations is health, safety, environment and quality. We are setting the foundation early to promote an HSEQ driven culture at all levels of the organization as we grow rapidly. On health and safety, we implemented an institutionalized and incident management system, providing an organizational-wide incident communications framework, which enables continuous improvement. For environment and quality, we obtained key registrations for ISO 45001 pertaining to health and safety, 9001 pertaining to quality management systems and 14001 pertaining to effective environmental management systems and R2 pertaining to responsible recycling.

Both Kingston and Rochester operations maintained their ISO and R2 registration with 0 nonconformities. We completed all required environmental permits for the Arizona spoke, keeping the facility on track for operational start-up. Also, per schedule, we have been advancing the permitting for the Alabama spoke.

Regarding operational performance. The Kingston and Rochester spokes continued their successful ramp-up during the fourth quarter, bringing their full-year black mass production ahead of our original target for fiscal year 2021. In terms of projects in construction, as we glimpsed from the video, both the Alabama and Arizona spokes remain on track for start-up in 2022. Importantly, we also broke ground on the Rochester hub.

Finally, on the commercial front, we have made meaningful progress in both battery supply and end product off-take. On the supply side, we entered into a multiyear agreement with Ultium Cells, a joint venture of General Motors and LG Energy Solution to recycle the battery material scrap generated by their planned higher cell manufacturing. As part of this collaboration, we have plans to co-locate our fifth North American spoke at this site. We entered a major supply agreement through our partnership with Univar Solutions, a leader in waste management. We are leveraging Univar's expertise in collecting, sorting and managing waste at multiple OEM sites, and we will be the solution provider for lithium-ion battery waste coming from North American electric vehicle producers such as Mercedes Benz. By mid-March, we expect to have finalized long-term agreements with LGC and LGES. We will take their nickel-bearing lithium-ion battery materials and supply them with nickel sulphate from our Rochester hub facility, closing the loop on their battery materials.

Turning to Slide 4, for a few additional commercial comments. On the supply side, we increased and then diversified the number of battery supply customers to approximately 85 this year. One of Li-Cycle's competitive advantages is our IP protected processing technology, which is agnostic lithium-ion battery recycling sources. For example, the cycling intake at our spoke facilities has shifted predominantly from consumer electronics in fiscal year 2020 to transportation OEM derived batteries, manufacturing scrap and end-of-life battery customers, including EV battery recalls in fiscal year 2021. We are equipped to continue to be flexible in our preprocessing of recycled material through our spokes. As we approach mid-decade, we anticipate this intake mix will tilt more heavily to battery manufacturing scrap.

On the off-take side, all our black mass production capacity was sold. Beginning in 2022, all black mass production capacity will be sold under an off-take agreement until it is required for the hub.

Turning to Slide 5, for operational highlights. As depicted on the left side, for the fourth quarter and fourth fiscal year, we saw an acceleration in black mass production year-on-year due to the ramp-up of the Kingston and Rochester spokes. On the right side, we are providing an example of how much battery material needs to be processed in order to generate an equivalent amount of black mass. We have extended this to show the amount of high-value critical battery end products that can be produced from black mass using chemical conversion rates.

That concludes my formal remarks. Let me turn to Bruce for his financial review.

Thanks, Tim. Turning to Slide 6, I'll review results for the fourth quarter and full year. Please note that both periods reflect our fiscal year ending October 31, 2021. For the quarter and year, revenues increased to over $4 million and $7 million versus prior periods of $0.5 million and $0.8 million, respectively. This was driven by an increase in product sales, primarily as a result of increasing quantities of batteries and battery scrap processed at the Rochester spoke as it ramps up, the continued onboarding of new battery supply customers as well as higher recycling services.

Adjusted EBITDA loss was nearly $12 million and $25 million versus prior period loss of $4 million and $8 million, respectively. This was largely driven by higher personnel costs, professional fees, costs associated with running a public company and the increased network development costs such as raw materials and supplies related to the continued growth and expansion of the business. Finally, we ended with cash and cash equivalents of nearly $596 million at the end of the period.

With that, let me turn it over to Ajay.

Thanks, Bruce. I will cover some recent strategic network developments in more detail and also discuss market trends and our business outlook.

Turning to Slide 7, on our strategy. There are really 2 key takeaways here that I would like to highlight. First, we are focusing our near to medium-term network growth investments in North America and Europe, aligning with the market and customer needs. We will also be opportunistically exploring Asia Pacific. Second, manufacturing scrap continues to provide a strong base-load for our existing and future spoke operations. End-of-life battery volumes continue to rise steadily with anticipated acceleration as early generation electric vehicles reach the end of their useful life.

Turning to Slide 8, for a reminder of our stated 2025 integrated Spoke & Hub network targets. We are reiterating that Li-Cycle is targeting annual processing capacity at our spokes of at least 100,000 annual tons of lithium-ion battery equivalent input, which equates to approximately 20 gigawatt hours of battery materials. As for the hub, reiterating that we are planning on a centralized network with at least 220,000 annual tons of lithium-ion battery equivalent input, equivalent to approximately 45 gigawatt hours of battery materials.

Next, I'll discuss some of the trends we are seeing as depicted on Slides 9 and 10. Significant growth in battery mega-factory supply chain investments in both North America and Europe has continued at an accelerating pace. As consumer adoption of EVs is inflecting, the global automotive OEMs are expanding manufacturing footprints to ensure market share of EV sales. Li-Cycle is strategically and expeditiously positioning its Spoke & Hub network, focusing on customer needs in North America and Europe, alongside an opportunistic approach in Asia Pacific.

We are locating our facilities close to centers where demand is clustered while also securing baseload key commercial customer partnerships that will underpin returns on our capital investment. The acceleration of cell, module and pack manufacturing is driving increasing needs for scrap recycling. Approximately and at least 5% to 10% of lithium-ion battery manufacturing volumes are typically lost and scrap.

In North America, as seen on Slide 9, mega-factory investments are now expected to surpass 500 gigawatt hours of capacity by 2025. That suggests that addressable market for scrap is expected to be between 125,000 to 250,000 tons of manufacturing scrap by 2025.

In Europe, as shown on Slide 10, this market is further along in terms of EV penetration and battery manufacturing relative to North America. It is expected by 2030 Europe will be 2x the size of the North American market. As with our strategy in North America, we are strategically developing sites, posted demand centers, while also securing key commercial contracts for battery supply and off-take agreements.

Moving to Slide 11 to discuss our spoke expansion pipeline. Our spoke IP-protected technology is capital-light, has a low environmental footprint and size. As you saw in the video, we are able to largely replicate each spoke in a modular Lego build fashion, thereby scaling up both with pace and cost efficiently as the battery supply chain is rapidly growing. Further, we are able to accommodate changing battery chemistries and varying form factors. With our recently announced spokes in Ohio and Norway, we will have approximately 55,000 tons per year of lithium-ion battery processing capacity underpinned by strong commercial partnerships. Further, we are in advanced planning stages for a second spoke in Europe, specifically in Germany. Consistent with our strategy, we anticipate updating you on this site upon additional progress.

Turning to Slide 12, for a review of our newly announced Ohio spoke site. This spoke site will be co-located on the same site as with Ultium Cells' battery cell manufacturing mega-factory currently under construction in Warren, Ohio. On the background, when fully operational in 2022, the $2.3 billion Ultium Cells plant will span 3 million square feet, with annual capacity of approximately 35 gigawatt hours. Ultium Cells will construct a new building for the company's recycling facility and Li-Cycle will install and operate its proprietary spoke technology at the new facility. The new spoke will have an annual processing capacity of approximately 15,000 tons and is expected to be operational in early 2023. The co-location will substantially reduce the costs associated with inbound logistics given our facility's proximal location relative to Ultium Cells mega-factory.

Turning to Slide 13 for a discussion of our recently announced first spoke launch into Europe. This spoke will be located in Norway through a joint venture with ECO STOR and Morrow Batteries. ECO STOR is a leading second-life energy storage business, focused on repurposing lithium-ion batteries into stationary energy storage systems. Morrow Batteries is building a state-of-the-art battery cell manufacturing plant with an annual capacity of over 40 gigawatt hours. We selected Norway strategically due to its nearly 75% EV penetration rate, which is the highest EV penetration rate in the world. It is projected that EV sales in Norway will reach 100% as early as spring of this year.

We will be the majority owner of the joint venture with ECO STOR and Morrow being minority owners. We will be responsible for the construction and operational facility, which is expected to come online by early 2023, with processing capacity of 10,000 tons per year of lithium-ion batteries. We've also engaged Koch Engineered Solutions to construct, test and shift the modular spoke facility, which is an extension of Koch's strategic relationship with Li-Cycle. The facility will have the capability to process battery manufacturing scrap, fully the packs and energy storage systems. ECO STOR will provide the joint venture with end-of-life lithium-ion batteries and Morrow will provide battery manufacturing scrap.

Briefly to recap our Rochester Hub project on Slide 14. Utilizing Li-Cycle's IP-protected hydrometallurgical technology in a centralized location and leveraging historic infrastructure, we are able to achieve a number of key competitive advantages. These include higher resource recovery, lower capital intensity, lower environmental footprint and greater employee safety. While the project is based on uniquely designed processing technology, it does not require first-of-a-kind permitting.

In addition to breaking ground on the project, we have frozen our process engineering design and consequently pulled forward orders for long lead equipment. We are securing construction equipment and materials to maintain schedule and cost. We contracted Hatch as the EPCM contractor and are finalizing our general contractor selection in the next few weeks. As we approach mechanical completion and commissioning in 2023, we intend to continue seeking opportunities to engage with Koch Engineered Solutions as part of our operational readiness strategy. Over the course of 2022 and 2023, we will provide updates on the development of the Rochester hub.

Turning to Slide 15, to address our key objectives and business outlook for 2022. The leadership team is directly aligned with shareholders based on these key objectives. First, we expect to continue to build on our balance sheet in support of our growth to provide us with a strong base and optionality and will also manage operating expenses as we build our business towards a path to profitability. Second, as mentioned in Tim's remarks, health, safety, environment and quality are core to Li-Cycle's culture, values and operating disciplines. We are establishing a strong foundation early at all of our locations that we can continue to implement and refine for new sites from development through operation. Third, we will continue to execute on the Rochester hub on time and on budget to support startup in 2023. Fourth, we expect to deliver on our black mass production target range of 6,500 tonnes to 7,500 tonnes in fiscal year 2022, one key edit to note on this metric.

Similar to this past year, we anticipate production to ramp in the second half of fiscal 2022 with an acceleration into early 2023. That would include continued optimization of the Kingston and Rochester spokes and ramping up the Arizona and Alabama facilities. We will continue to make progress on development of spokes in Ohio, Norway and Germany.

Before Q&A, I would like to conclude on some key points on Slide 16. We are experiencing a growth inflection point for the battery material supply chain. We are moving strategically and expeditiously with our customers and the market demand and have significantly advanced our Spoke & Hub network, particularly in North America and Europe. We executed on a number of partnerships with leading commercial partners, and we have a strong balance sheet to support our pipeline of growth projects.

Tim and I are extremely thankful and proud of the team's achievements and continued focus on execution. This concludes our formal remarks, and we are looking forward to your questions.

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Brian Dobson with Chardan Capital Markets.

Maybe we can take it up to 30,000 feet per minute. Would you mind elaborating on what you see as the key mega trends shaping the sector over the next few years? And how you've positioned Li-C to benefit from that evolving landscape?

Yes. Hello, Brian, it's Ajay here, and I'll start and then Tim can add on as needed. You have to look, it's an extremely, extremely exciting time in the electrification market. We're seeing unprecedented shifts in acceleration in deployment of facilities and capital from our customers. I'll give you an example. This week we, of course, today announced our co-location with Ultium. On Tuesday, folks would have likely picked up, that they announced a third mega-factory beyond Ohio, which will be in Michigan, which is going to be bigger than the one in Ohio. So I think as folks look at EV targets, the acceleration of our customers, trying to meet customer demand, the pace continues to grow. And so we're being prudent and thoughtful how we continue to match up with that. But the really exciting thing about the mega trend is, it provides contracted baseload for us, along with those Tier 1 partners for us to drive our network and ultimately financial returns. So that's one large mega trend, I would say, is dominating from our perspective.

The second is on the flip side, and it's related, is, of course, critical materials. So we've seen continued tightness in the supply of critical materials to meet that demand. That, of course, bodes well for Li-Cycle sitting at the intersection of those megatrends. Our products are lithium and nickel and cobalt (inaudible) that go back into lithium-ion batteries. So that also bodes very well for us. So we're seeing the demand in the macro from the market benefit us on both sides of the equation.

Yes. And then just to add on to that. I think the other thing that we're seeing is an increased focus on how these materials are produced. I mean we've seen all sorts of geopolitical instability in the supply of lithium in particular over the last couple of weeks in Europe and in South America. And so as we continue to work closely with our partners, we're in a benefited position because of our technology. And when we look at our spoke facilities, we don't generate any wastewater, we don't generate any meaningful air emissions. When we move forward to our hub facilities, once again, with zero liquid discharge. We have no thermal processors. And so this is closely aligned with what not only our customers want to see, but communities and governments around the world. So we're highly confident that we'll be able to continue to benefit from this general trend.

The other 2 factors that I would add on is the domestic supply. And we talked about Europe and we talked about South America just now. But of course, here in North America, the need to be able to produce materials domestically is growing in terms of critical consciousness at government levels, at the customer level, the groups that actually make the batteries and need the materials. They're highly aware of the need for domestic supply. And then the final thing is one thing that we're really seeing a move towards in, particularly in Europe, is the need for recycled materials. So you overlay all of these things and then you have on top of that a push with the battery directive to include recycled material, a minimum amount in the batteries that are produced and go into vehicles and other end product users. So we see a whole range of (inaudible) that are highly beneficial for our industry, and we continue to leverage that as we build out our network.

And just as a brief follow-up. So your 2 new spoke facilities announced in the past 24 hours. One is co-located, the other is standalone. As you continue to rollout new locations, do you think that you'll favor one strategy versus the other? What should we expect?

Thanks, Brian. I'll start and then Tim should add on. So I think it's a mix of both. And as we articulated in the presentation, we have co-located and merchant. However, one thing that doesn't change amongst all of that is we're always looking for a contracted baseload to feed the facility, to drive the ultimate black mass production to that of course coming to our facility. So whether it's proximally located, customer calling the merchant, quote/unquote, taking supply from numerous different suppliers or co-located as a captive source, for example, co-located with mega-factories. That first principle doesn't change associated with contracted baseload.

And I'd just add to that, I mean, having an existing network of facilities where we can actually bring customers to our facility to show them what they're doing, we're able to give the confidence. And we went through this process with Ultium and LG and GM whereby we had to demonstrate that we actually do what we say that we -- effectively we do what we say that we do. And that confidence is one of the critical aspects. Of course, bring any additional operation onto new -- onto an existing site with an existing business is something that they take extremely seriously. And so as Ajay said, it will continue to be a mix and the benefit of our technology is we have that flexibility to be able to go directly onto the site with minimal impact and be able to do it in a safe and efficient way or we can be a standalone facility and service a range of customers as we do, for example, in Kingston and Rochester.

We will take our next question from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

Just a couple of questions. First, on the Rochester hub, you upsized that to 35,000 tons of black mass, and you talked about being within budget for capital. But we are seeing labor shortages. We are seeing sort of raw material inflation. The Fed is talking about it. Are you seeing any of that in all the construction that you are doing? Is labor an issue? Can you just talk about what you're seeing out there in real conditions there?

Yes. No problems, PJ, happy to answer that. And so let me address it in 2 parts. In relation to materials and equipment, we identified this early in the process. And I think that was really a very critical step for the organization. And so what we did is we actually brought forward a lot of our procurement activities into the frontend of the project in order to guarantee pricing and supply. The traditional way of building a project like this would be just-in-time delivery of these materials and equipment. But because of those risks that you identified that, P.J., we went against that, and we secured a warehouse, for example, we are able to address that through our procurement strategy. Labor is another very important one as we've been going through the process of selecting our general contractor, and we expect, as Ajay said in his earlier remarks, to finalize that process in the next few weeks. We've actually gone through the process and done quite detailed labor studies, but we're also looking to work with a contractor that has the ability to impart what we call self-performed work, which provides a certain level of reassurance in relation to that labor supply. We are fortunate to be in Rochester. Rochester is the basin for the surrounding area in the Northeast. We have the ability to pull labor from Buffalo or Syracuse and other proximal cities to Rochester. So at this point in time, we don't see an issue with that, P.J. We have gone through, we've done the work. We understand what the costs are. We understand what the expected increase in inflation and cost of labor are likely to be through the project. And all of that is budgeted in our plan.

And then the Ohio plant is co-located with Ultium Cells. Is that under a long-term take-or-pay contract because it is co-located? Is that sort of a strategy different than your other spokes? And then as you expand into Europe and go into Germany, would you look for similar partners as you did in Norway?

Thanks, P.J. I'll take that one. It's Ajay. So this co-location is basically an augmentation of our existing contract that was announced last year with Ultium. And just to elucidate a little bit, when we do this, of course, as I articulated, we want contracted baseload feed. So we want the access to the manufacturing rejects, the outlaws that's being kicked off. And that's a critical part of our overall equation. In December, we announced, of course, the forthcoming transaction with LG. That is extremely transformative to the business. And so these are the anchor partners that we're growing with, whether it be broadly speaking, from a high level, North America, Europe and around the world. So the Ultium co-location is not quite different in that regard. I would just say it's an augmentation and a very exciting augmentation of us being a captive co-located recycler. For Europe, in general, again, as I said, same strategy. We have a mix of different supply sources in Norway, for example, that's both end of life, largest EV market in the world from a penetration perspective and manufacturing scrap. So whenever we make these decisions to site, we'll always be looking to who are those anchor partners that justify from our perspective, the reason to go there. And that doesn't change if that's co-located or if it's merchant or on a standalone basis.

And we will take our next question from Robin Fiedler with BMO Capital Markets.

My first question is on geographic expansion plans. Clearly, there's a shift to North America and Europe. Now is it fair to assume that if the feedstock can be secured that the vast majority or even all of the 2025 capacity targets can be met with North America and Europe?

I'll start on that and perhaps Tim can start on. Yes, so we were very conscious today. I think folks would have picked up to very clearly reiterate our 2025 targets. One thing we've been saying is, I think, folks have been attuned to in the past quarters or months is the market is shifting and our customers are shifting, demand is shifting, and they're being nimble. And a lot of that has to do with pronounced and accelerated growth in North America and Europe as everybody has seen. So ultimately, for us, what are we doing? We're processing battery materials to generate end products and returning to the economy of the battery supply chain to drive ultimate financial return. So that doesn't change. It's a little bit agnostic of location. And so our articulation today was very, again, intentional, obviously, to focus on the near-term investments being focused and prioritized in North America and Europe. Again, just following our customers. It's all we're doing. But at the same time, you need a balanced approach. You cannot ignore that the battery epicenters of the world are in Asia Pacific, right, are important customers and those that are driving a lot of what's happening in the world are also in Asia Pacific. So there's a balanced approach, but there is a focus on where we put steel in the ground per se with assets following our customers, and we do see a pronounced shift more in North America and Europe.

And maybe just as a follow-up, I just want to ask a bit on near-term earnings. Maybe you can address some of the expected incremental cost year-over-year in '22 with respect to hub development and construction and also speak to how much of the black mass production will actually be attributed to sales and how much will be inventory build ahead of the hub commission next year? And then with all of that in mind, do you expect 2022 EBITDA to be better or worse than '21?

Yes, I'll start with the first one and then as needed Debbie and Tim can add on. So let me start with the black mass question. So as articulated in this webcast, we will actually continue to sell black mass for fiscal 2022. And folks should think this as at a high level when we switch that black mass into feeding the hub, it's just a diversion, right, from when we do, do that from selling it to third-parties versus being diverted to feed our hub to capture value. So in 2022, fiscal 2022, we do not see doing that. They will continue to sell. But of course, as we approach the hub, we'll continue to assess that diversion and the associated value capture vis-a-vis the fee to the hub. In terms of capital spend and high-level commentary on the year for the hub, I can start and Tim can perhaps add on to that. So we qualitatively commented in the webcast or the script that we will see an acceleration in the back half of 2022, much like what we saw in 2021. So that goes for capital spend, that goes for hub, spokes rather, the black mass we're producing. It's not, of course, peanut butter spread. It is a back half loading with a further acceleration into early 2023. So from a high level, as you think about the profile of the spend and the profile of what we're doing, it is, again, accelerating or back half loaded in the latter half of the year.

And Robin, maybe just to add on to that. I think there's a couple of things to layer in. In terms of capital spend, we ended the fiscal year with almost $600 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand. We're well financed for the capital projects that we've outlaid, the capital spend for the hub is accelerated in terms of the early procurement strategy, but it is a spend over effectively 2 years, and we're very conscious of that. On the OpEx side, the key thing in terms of fiscal year 2022, we are in another build yet. One of the key things is we continue to add people in order to support the growth that's needed within the organization and the operations that will be coming online in '23, particularly around the hub. So today, we stand at about 200 people, just over 200 people within the organization. We expect that to grow to approximately 400 by the end of the year as we continue to prepare to scale the operations.

Yes. I'll just bring that together back to your question, Robin, on EBITDA. Look, I think we've provided the key building blocks get there, including production, including a lot of our dollar spend as Tim just articulated is going to be heavily on CapEx. The folks think about this year something key to pay attention to. And then as Tim just articulated, the other piece is, what are the drivers of the OpEx as well? We provided the building blocks from our perspective to get to that color.

And we will take our next question from Daniel Ives with Wedbush.

So, can you hit on -- when we think about some of the conversations you're having with the OEMs, specifically in the U.S., can you just compare and contrast where that is today to maybe even a year ago, just seeing what we're watching from an EV perspective?

Thanks, Dan, and I appreciate the question. Yes. I think the tone has shifted to further and further proactive, further and further pulling investments forward, activity forward, care about recycling because of all the things we actually spoke about at the beginning of the call or the Q&A here rather. And so it's a big shift. I mean, over the last year, say even 2 years ago, recycling was important, I think, as they were thinking through electrification strategy end-to-end. It was always part of the thinking. But in some ways, until you start making batteries and generating scrap and we've heard some of our customers saying that they realize that getting into battery making, as a result, makes scrap and you actually de facto get into recycling business, not in terms of recycling themselves, but the need for recycling. So I think as that's all been actually physically realized, there's been an acceleration in the desire and the tone to need to be very proactive on that front. And then what happens is you scan the market and you say, well, who's doing this, right? Who actually has access on the ground, technology combined with strong commercial partnership has been validated, and that all takes time, right? You can't just, the recycler say, you're going to do this and then that facility and get batteries. The market is not necessarily very broad for the parties that can actually fulfill that. So we continue to see strong benefit. We are in the right place with the right technology and the right commercial partnerships that are taking time to get there to benefit from that tone change and that mindset change that's evolved over the last year plus.

And so when you use them in a competitive process, like just how important is it, Tim, in hub and spoke and obviously the Rochester build-out, it seems like on target for '23. Like how big is that when there's so many other competitors going after some of the same opportunities? Maybe you could just -- easier if you could just give us without naming the customer, like some real-life examples of competitive process.

Yes, not a problem, Dan. I mean I think one of the great examples there is what we announced with LG. I mean that we talked before a lot about the tailwinds that are driving -- at the moment is security of raw materials. And so what we're seeing is our ability and the fact that we're now in construction and we're moving forward with our hub in Rochester, that has become a key factor for us to be able to negotiate these contracts. I see the holes in their supply chains coming forward as they continue to announce new plants and want to bring on more cell manufacturing capacity, and they see us as a way of filling and clog that gap that they have. So I would say it's critical. People often ask us, Daniel, what's more important, is it the spoke or the hub? It's really hard. I mean, you need the funnel, you need to be able to receive and process those battery materials on the front end. But the hub is the enabler that ensures that they're able to in fact meet that gap in terms of the critical materials.

And we will take our next question from Ben Kallo with Baird.

I just want to know maybe following on Dan's question there, just about the discussions with customers and not to name any names, but how has that evolved because you signed several different ones, but how have the terms on that evolved, if you can talk about like fixed volumes or pricing, is it the same? Or has it changed over time? That's my first question.

Thanks, Ben, and happy to address that. It's Ajay. So I would say, as Tim just said, we just continue to find ourselves in better and better position, vis-a-vis the steps we've taken on the technology now being commercially operational, should be prepared to take that volume. And so that bodes extremely well when you have a lot more material than there is actually homes for it to go to. And that's frankly what's happening now some ways, and it will continue. We're seeing us needing to keep up and continue our build-out associated with that ongoing cell manufacturing base, which is a lot of our material over the course of the coming years. So we have not seen to be clear and address the question. We've not seen a deterioration in terms, we haven't seen it getting worse. We're in a great position. What I would say, on the back of that, I think as we go forward, for the economics of the business, one thing to remind folks of is we also have an inherent hedge on the specialty materials, sometimes when we're getting, for example, manufacturing scrap, it is priced typically at different (inaudible) depending on the material form, the price based on the content of those materials at a fixed (inaudible) discount typically. And then we're making and then reproducing ultimately those materials to go back to the supply chain. So it sounds like we have a high fixed cost base that is going to be in big trouble if prices go at a different place. Of course, we're in a very bullish market for critical (inaudible). But we have an inherent hedge in the business no matter what, that we benefit ultimately and can move as those critical material trends evolve.

Yes. And just to add on to that, Ben, in terms of the trend that we're seeing on the customer side, we're definitely seeing an increase in sophistication and a move towards this model, which is much more favorable from our perspective, as Ajay said, to provide that natural hedge.

And just on that front, what type of contract lines are people willing to sign? And has that changed?

Yes. It's multiyear, I'd say actually it keeps getting even better. Folks would have seen in December, that's a 10-year contract that we're in the process of finalizing with LG. So the lengths have actually, broadly speaking, either stayed the same or continued to grow. And I think that speaks to what they're trying to get at, which is security of supply back and also security of home for the material to go to be dealt with as they continue to ramp.

And sorry if I missed this, but the LG is, I think, focused on nickel. And I just wanted to understand how this is different than other stuff on what you do with the other -- with the hub in Rochester, why it's only nickel? Do you sell that to lithium and cobalt and other materials to other people? Or is it just -- you're just using that off-take to produce lithium, I mean, to produce nickel, apologies?

Yes. Great question. Just to clarify, so 100% of our volume from the Rochester hub will be going to (inaudible) for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite. So that's contracted. What we produce will be bought. This agreement with LG and then any other downstream where it goes and then comes back to the supply chain, to be clear, is actually downstream in practice. However, we have the ability and we work closer, access to allocate the product for those. So that's just a little bit of the flow. In terms of why nickel for LG, a lot of their chemistries in their production base is high nickel and since there is a focus on nickel. That said, it does not preclude us from exploring other opportunities, broadly speaking, on other materials.

And we will be reducing cobalt as a material -- sorry, we will be producing cobalt as other materials. There's nothing special about the LG material that precludes us from producing the respective amounts of cobalt and lithium and the like.

And my final one is just on the Koch relationship. You called that out for them helping with the procurement, maybe engineering in Europe. Is that going to be the status quo going forward? Or is that because of the location? And does that have any impact on your current operations? So I think you had kind of a build and ship facility for the spoke before.

No, it's an add-on basically, Ben. So as we see it in Kingston through our own build facility that you're referring to, we have the ability to produce approximately 6 spoke facilities per year from that facility. The benefit of working with Koch is that they have a large engineering team. We had to update some of the engineering aspects to make a compliance with our European standards, which they're helping us with. And we're continuing to work with them as a secondary outlet to take some of that pressure off. We have a lot of plans to build in the years to come and having that additional bandwidth on the build capacity, we see as being highly valuable.

And we will take our next question from Jeff Osborne with Cowen & Company.

Just a couple of quick ones on my end, a lot of content on the call here. Circling back to the CapEx commentary, I think on the prior call, with the LG contract, you had mentioned the total CapEx was $485 million for the hub facility. Can you give us a sense of maybe 1/3 of that is in '22 and 2/3 in '23 or any type of scope?

Yes. So I'll start maybe, Jeff, and maybe Tim can add on. So I'd say, for sure, this is a big build year, broadly speaking, back half loaded in the latter half of '22. We have decided, of course, that the facility is targeted to be commissioned or commissioning in 2023. So that is unchanged. But just as a general comment, this is a build year. Tim wants to add to that.

Yes. So I think that it's reasonable to assume that the majority of the materials will be -- and equipment will be bought in FY '22. One of the things that we will be providing in the future is more detailed updates in terms of how we're progressing on spend and completion. But as you look at the breakdown, I would say that focus on the materials and equipment in FY '22. Of course, we'll be -- we'll have people, the general contract will be well underway here in the next couple of months. It's definitely front loaded 2022.

I think on the same call last month, you had referenced pursuing government funding. Have you submitted any applications or had any discussion with the American government about funding for the facility?

Yes, I can touch that. So I can't comment on specific opportunities, but maybe Debbie can add there if she wants just on broader balance sheet strategy. But vis-a-vis, for example, DoE, we would potentially fit well for something like that, but I won't comment on any specific programs. And Debbie may add here a little bit to the broader strategy.

Jeff, the intention is to take a look at -- so we're working on multiple options for funding. And what will be important for us is to prioritize next to our non-dilutive options. So in the end, what we really need to do is build the flexible balance sheet here that funds us for the future goals. So we have a balance sheet right now that funds us for all the CapEx and all the plants, including Germany, that we just talked about. With our current balance sheet, but what we really need to do based on what both Ajay and Tim said earlier, is beyond that to how we build a structure that's flexible, supportive for this great opportunity that's ahead of what we've already committed to.

The last one I had is just the commentary around 2022 and the production relative to the time of the SPAC. Is the delta there solely just the pace of spoke additions and what's operational versus under construction? Or are there any other aspects that we should be aware of?

I like that number that we put out and everything we do now, it's all fiscal year. It's all in the October 31. So I'll say that I think, yes, folks can go back and see, of course, we focused on what's moving forward, but there was a different time basis here, I believe, calendar year originally. Just a function of time.

And we will take our final question from Evan Silverberg with Morgan Stanley.

Evan on behalf of Adam Jonas. When we think about the newly announced spokes, are you kind of seeing the same type of cost inflation that you're seeing with the announcement of the upsized Rochester hub? If I think back a couple of months ago when you talked about spoke costs, I believe, like incremental spoke was like $6 million to $10 million total. Any commentary there would be helpful.

I'll start and Tim can add. I think the short answer is no, not as pronounced, and there's, of course, very different plants. They're lump-sum, turnkey, like a build style and Tim can add here.

I would say that the other aspect is that we have made technical improvements to the plant to be able to bring down the capital intensity. I'll give you a direct example on that is that traditionally, we were focused on 5,000 tons per year of battery materials as being a single or what we call a single line processing facility. We've been able to make advancements, and we're now moving forward with a 10,000 tonne per year single-line facility. And that really has helped bring down that capital intensity even lower than where it was before. So we expect to be able to continue to benefit from economies of scale on the spoke side as the industry continues to expand, and we can deploy larger facilities and larger assets, we expect to be able to make further improvement to that.

There are no further questions in queue. This concludes today's Li-Cycle Holdings fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call and webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.