Levi Strauss & Co (LEVI) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Levi Strauss & Co. Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call for the period ending November 28, 2021. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. A telephone replay will be available 2 hours after the completion of this call through February 2, 2022, 1 week after call for telephone replay. Please use the conference ID 4676203. This conference call also is being broadcast over the Internet, and a replay of the webcast will be accessible for 1 quarter on the company's website, levistrauss.com.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加截至 2021 年 11 月 28 日期間的 Levi Strauss & Co. 第四季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）本次會議正在錄製中，未經許可不得全部或部分複制公司的書面許可。電話重播將在本次通話結束 2 小時後到 2022 年 2 月 2 日，即電話重播後 1 週提供。請使用會議 ID 4676203。本次電話會議也將通過 Internet 進行廣播，並將在公司網站 levistrauss.com 上重播 1 個季度的網絡廣播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Aida Orphan, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Aida Orphan。

Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss the results for our fourth fiscal quarter of 2021. Joining me on today's call are Chip Bergh, President and CEO of Levi Strauss; and Harmit Singh, CFO. We posted complete Q4 financial results in our earnings release section of our IR website, investors.levistrauss.com. The link to the webcast of today's conference call can also be found on our site.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論我們 2021 年第四財季的業績。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有 Levi Strauss 總裁兼首席執行官 Chip Bergh；和首席財務官 Harmit Singh。我們在投資者關係網站investors.levistrauss.com 的收益發布部分發布了完整的第四季度財務業績。今天電話會議的網絡直播鏈接也可以在我們的網站上找到。

We'd like to remind everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements on this call, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Please review our filings with the SEC, in particular the Risk Factors section of the annual report on Form 10-K that we filed today for the factors that could cause our results to differ. Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today, and we assume no obligation to update any of these statements.

我們想提醒大家，我們將在此次電話會議上做出前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述所設想的結果大不相同。請查看我們向 SEC 提交的文件，特別是我們今天提交的 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分，了解可能導致我們結果不同的因素。另請注意，本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述基於我們今天可獲得的信息，我們不承擔更新任何這些陳述的義務。

During this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today's earnings release on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論非 GAAP 財務指標。今天在我們的投資者關係網站上發布的收益報告中提供了與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。這些非 GAAP 措施無意替代我們的 GAAP 結果。

Finally, this call in its entirety is being webcast on our IR website, and a replay of this call will be available on the website shortly. Today's call is scheduled for 1 hour. (Operator Instructions)

最後，本次電話會議的全部內容正在我們的 IR 網站上進行網絡直播，很快將在網站上播放本次電話會議的重播。今天的通話時間為 1 小時。 （操作員說明）

And now I'd like to turn over the call to Chip.

現在我想把電話轉給Chip。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. At the beginning of the pandemic, we declared that we would have emerged stronger from the crisis, and I can confidently say that we are now indeed a better, stronger company than ever before. After returning to pre-COVID revenue levels in Q3, momentum accelerated through Q4, and today's results reflect robust financial performance across the board.

下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。在大流行開始時，我們宣布我們會從危機中變得更強大，我可以自信地說，我們現在確實是一家比以往任何時候都更好、更強大的公司。在第三季度恢復到 COVID 之前的收入水平後，勢頭在第四季度加速，今天的結果反映了全面強勁的財務業績。

Our Q4 revenues were $1.7 billion, up 22% to 2020, and 7% to 2019, led by continued strength in the Americas and Europe, with Asia seeing a strong recovery despite COVID headwinds across the region. Consumer demand remained very strong and outstripped supply by approximately $50 million in the quarter or 3% of revenue due to supply chain constraints. The quarter punctuated a very strong fiscal 2021 performance, delivering our highest revenue since 1998, and achieving a 12.4% adjusted EBIT margin above our 12% plus target while continuing to reinvest at a higher and accelerated level. We have been able to deliver these results despite well-known headwinds as our diversified and agile supply chain is a source of competitive strength, enabling us to mitigate risk and outperform.

我們第四季度的收入為 17 億美元，到 2020 年增長 22%，到 2019 年增長 7%，這主要得益於美洲和歐洲的持續增長，儘管整個地區都面臨新冠疫情的不利影響，亞洲仍實現了強勁復甦。由於供應鏈限制，本季度消費者需求仍然非常強勁，超過供應約 5,000 萬美元或收入的 3%。本季度實現了非常強勁的 2021 財年業績，實現了自 1998 年以來的最高收入，調整後的息稅前利潤率達到 12.4%，高於我們 12% 以上的目標，同時繼續以更高和加速的水平進行再投資。儘管存在眾所周知的逆風，我們仍然能夠實現這些結果，因為我們多元化和敏捷的供應鍊是競爭優勢的來源，使我們能夠降低風險並表現出色。

Our performance demonstrates the strength and resilience of our brands and the increasing authentic connections we have with consumers on the foundation of trust and loyalty built over the past 170 years. The results we delivered this year are proof points that our strategies are working, and we have greater conviction than ever in our future with several multiyear tailwinds.

我們的表現證明了我們品牌的實力和韌性，以及在過去 170 年建立的信任和忠誠度的基礎上，我們與消費者之間日益緊密的聯繫。我們今年交付的結果證明了我們的戰略正在奏效，並且我們對未來的信心比以往任何時候都更大，因為有幾個多年的順風。

First, the total addressable market for denim is large and growing, and consumer preferences continue to shift towards casualization. As the global denim market leader, we are well positioned to take advantage of and drive growth. In the most recent quarter, the U.S. jeans growth outpaced apparel with both categories surpassing 2019 levels. For the year, the U.S. jeans category was up 8% versus 2019. We also continue to increase share in women's in the U.S., and we have achieved significant traction engaging Gen Z consumers through programs like Levi's SecondHand recommerce initiative and our Buy Better, Wear Longer campaign.

首先，牛仔布的潛在市場規模龐大且不斷增長，消費者偏好繼續向休閒化方向轉變。作為全球牛仔布市場的領導者，我們有能力利用並推動增長。在最近一個季度，美國牛仔褲的增長速度超過了服裝，這兩個類別都超過了 2019 年的水平。今年，美國牛仔褲類別與 2019 年相比增長了 8%。我們還繼續增加美國女裝的份額，並且通過 Levi's SecondHand 電子商務計劃和我們的 Buy Better, Wear 等計劃，我們在吸引 Z 世代消費者方面取得了顯著的吸引力更長的競選活動。

Second, our strong brand equity is driving pricing power. 2021 pricing actions are sticking, best reflected by the company's 7% AUR increase over 2019, which is primarily driven by our pricing initiatives. We have plans to take additional price increases in 2022 and beyond, helping us to offset inflationary pressures. Even as we take price, our products provide an exceptional value to consumers.

其次，我們強大的品牌資產正在推動定價能力。 2021 年的定價行動持續進行，公司 2019 年的 AUR 增長 7% 最好地反映了這一點，這主要是由我們的定價舉措推動的。我們計劃在 2022 年及以後進一步提價，幫助我們抵消通脹壓力。即使我們採取價格，我們的產品也為消費者提供了卓越的價值。

Third, the direct engagement we are building through our DTC business is bringing us closer to the consumer and allows us to showcase the fullest expression of our iconic brand and drive category expansion. In 2021, we continued the rollout of NextGen doors around the world, including 16 in the U.S. as we premiumize this marketplace. These stores are built with a digital backbone that supports our omnichannel platform, delivering an elevated, engaging and brand-centric experience for our fans. We're also using AI to enhance and differentiate our loyalty programs and app, and both are seeing strong acquisition rates, meaningful growth in performance and productivity of existing members.

第三，我們通過 DTC 業務建立的直接參與讓我們更貼近消費者，讓我們能夠充分展示我們標誌性品牌的表現並推動品類擴張。 2021 年，我們繼續在全球推出 NextGen 門，其中包括在美國的 16 個，因為我們將這個市場推向高端。這些商店建立在支持我們全渠道平台的數字骨幹上，為我們的粉絲提供提升、引人入勝和以品牌為中心的體驗。我們還使用人工智能來增強和區分我們的忠誠度計劃和應用程序，兩者都看到了強勁的收購率、現有會員的績效和生產力的顯著增長。

And fourth, the continued diversification of our business represents significant growth opportunities. Our performance this year reflects the strength of our diversified portfolio, yet we remain underpenetrated in women's, tops and international as well as product expansion further outside of denim. The acquisition of Beyond Yoga also provides an entry into the fast-growing and high-margin premium activewear category.

第四，我們業務的持續多元化代表著巨大的增長機會。我們今年的業績反映了我們多元化產品組合的實力，但我們在女裝、上衣和國際以及牛仔布以外的產品擴展方面仍然滲透不足。收購 Beyond Yoga 也為進入快速增長和高利潤的優質運動服類別提供了機會。

Let me now shift to some highlights from the fourth quarter. Strength was broad-based across channels, brands, category, gender and markets. The Levi's brand accelerated to 7% growth versus 2019, with even stronger growth in our top 5 markets.

現在讓我談談第四季度的一些亮點。實力在渠道、品牌、品類、性別和市場方面具有廣泛的基礎。與 2019 年相比，Levi's 品牌的增長速度加快至 7%，在我們的前 5 個市場中增長更為強勁。

Men's bottoms were up 6% to 2019, reaching the highest revenue level since Q4 2015. Women's bottoms continue to outperform, up an exceptional 21% to 2019 as the trend towards high-rise and looser-fashion fits drove significant growth. And demand remained robust for our iconic 501, which was up 23% to 2019, driven by strong gains with both men and women. Overall, looser fits continue to increase in penetration, representing roughly half of both our women's and men's bottoms assortments, including for the year. Consumers can expect to see us iterate on this trend in future seasons. We're diversifying our tops offering, and we're pleased to see the Levi's tops business return to growth versus 2019, driven by solid performance in men's wovens and sweatshirts, while women saw momentum across wovens, dresses and outerwear.

男裝褲在 2019 年增長了 6%，達到了自 2015 年第四季度以來的最高收入水平。女裝褲的表現繼續出色，到 2019 年增長了 21%，因為高腰和寬鬆時尚的趨勢推動了顯著增長。我們標誌性的 501 的需求依然強勁，到 2019 年增長了 23%，這得益於男性和女性的強勁增長。總體而言，寬鬆版型的滲透率繼續增加，約占我們女裝和男裝底部品種的一半，包括今年。消費者可以期待看到我們在未來幾季重複這一趨勢。我們正在使我們的上衣產品多樣化，我們很高興看到 Levi's 上衣業務與 2019 年相比恢復增長，這得益於男士梭織和運動衫的穩健表現，而女性則看到梭織、連衣裙和外套的發展勢頭。

Direct-to-consumer momentum accelerated across the globe and saw significant growth with the channel up 20% versus 2019 levels. Global brick-and-mortar also grew well above pre-pandemic levels, up 14% to 2019, driven by both our mainline and outlet stores. Higher conversion and a mid-single-digit increase in AUR, driven by the pricing power of the Levi's brand, have offset lower store traffic. We continue to roll out and enhance our in-store and omnichannel capabilities globally so that consumers can shop these physical points seamlessly, feeling the ease and convenience of our complete offering across all channels.

全球直接面向消費者的勢頭加速，渠道顯著增長，較 2019 年水平增長 20%。在我們的主線和直銷店的推動下，全球實體店的增長也遠高於大流行前的水平，到 2019 年增長了 14%。在李維斯品牌定價能力的推動下，更高的轉化率和中個位數的 AUR 增長抵消了商店客流量的下降。我們將繼續在全球範圍內推出和增強我們的店內和全渠道能力，以便消費者可以無縫地購買這些實體點，感受我們在所有渠道提供的完整產品的輕鬆和便利。

Our owned-and-operated e-commerce saw continued strike despite the recovery in our stores and was up 22% year-over-year on top of 38% growth last year. In order to drive growth in this marketplace, we have accelerated investments to evolve our distribution network with plans to open 2 new distribution centers. As we shared earlier in the year, we successfully migrated the U.S. West Coast e-commerce fulfillment to our owned-and-operated DC in Nevada and now have plans to build a new DC for digital on the East Coast. We are also building a highly automated, highly sustainable, owned-and-operated omni facility in Germany. This multiyear project, scheduled to open in 2024, will allow us to realize our strong long-term opportunity in Europe, consolidate the region's DC operations and deliver significant efficiencies.

儘管我們的商店有所復甦，但我們自有和經營的電子商務繼續受到打擊，在去年增長 38% 的基礎上同比增長 22%。為了推動這個市場的增長，我們加快了投資以發展我們的分銷網絡，併計劃開設 2 個新的分銷中心。正如我們在今年早些時候分享的那樣，我們成功地將美國西海岸的電子商務履行遷移到我們在內華達州擁有和運營的 DC，現在計劃在東海岸建立一個新的數字 DC。我們還在德國建立一個高度自動化、高度可持續、自有和運營的全向設施。這個計劃於 2024 年啟用的多年期項目將使我們能夠實現我們在歐洲的強大長期機遇，鞏固該地區的 DC 運營並提供顯著的效率。

The global wholesale business grew 1% versus 2019, and is importantly a healthier business versus pre-pandemic. This reflects 2% growth in the U.S. for the quarter. For the year, U.S. wholesale was up 4% versus 2019 and is notably a more elevated, digitally oriented and profitable market.

與 2019 年相比，全球批發業務增長了 1%，重要的是，與大流行前相比，這是一項更健康的業務。這反映了本季度美國 2% 的增長。今年，美國批發市場與 2019 年相比增長了 4%，尤其是一個更加高端、以數字為導向且盈利能力更高的市場。

I'll now provide highlights on Signature, Dockers and Beyond Yoga. Signature saw continued momentum with another quarter of above 30% growth versus 2019. Led by women's, the brand saw strong gains in AURs and continued success in digital wholesale. Dockers had a good year, and sales improved sequentially each quarter in 2021. The brand has a healthier, more diverse sales mix, and its updated California casual aesthetic is winning new and younger consumers increasingly via DTC, digital and international markets. For the full year, international comprised nearly 50% of Dockers sales and grew at a higher rate than in the U.S. Nearly 30% of Dockers sales also now come from digital channels. And what had been an almost entirely wholesale business just a few years ago now has almost 30% of its business in DTC and growing. And in the quarter, Beyond Yoga launched a men's pilot, and based on the positive response, we will be expanding that collection in 2022.

我現在將重點介紹 Signature、Dockers 和 Beyond Yoga。 Signature 繼續保持增長勢頭，與 2019 年相比又增長了 30% 以上。在女裝的帶動下，該品牌在 AUR 方面取得了強勁增長，並在數字批發方面繼續取得成功。 Dockers 度過了美好的一年，2021 年每個季度的銷售額都環比增長。該品牌擁有更健康、更多樣化的銷售組合，其更新的加州休閒美學正通過 DTC、數字和國際市場贏得越來越多的新的和年輕的消費者。全年，國際市場佔 Dockers 銷售額的近 50%，並且增長速度高於美國。近 30% 的 Dockers 銷售額現在也來自數字渠道。幾年前幾乎完全是批發業務的公司現在擁有近 30% 的 DTC 業務，並且還在不斷增長。在本季度，Beyond Yoga 推出了男裝試點，基於積極響應，我們將在 2022 年擴大該系列。

Overall, we are entering fiscal '22 with great momentum around the world. We are a stronger company than ever before with an agile supply chain, enabling us to outperform as Levi's drives increasingly more direct consumer engagement and denim category expansion while making meaningful gains with women and Gen Z. Longer term, our entry into the activewear market represents another strong runway for growth in addition to the category diversification opportunities in our existing portfolio. Our company's potential has never been greater. I credit all of our teams around the world for delivering an outstanding year for the company and positioning us for an even better 2022.

總體而言，我們正以強勁的勢頭進入 22 財年。我們是一家比以往任何時候都更強大的公司，擁有靈活的供應鏈，這使我們能夠在 Levi's 推動越來越直接的消費者參與和牛仔布品類擴張的同時表現出色，同時在女性和 Z 世代中取得有意義的收益。從長遠來看，我們進入運動服市場代表著除了我們現有投資組合中的類別多元化機會之外，還有另一個強勁的增長跑道。我們公司的潛力從未如此巨大。我感謝我們在世界各地的所有團隊為公司創造了出色的一年，並使我們為更好的 2022 年做好了準備。

Let me now turn it over to Harmit.

現在讓我把它交給哈米特。

Thanks, Chip. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered another really strong quarter to end the year against a continuing challenging macro backdrop with several key metrics significantly exceeding 2019 levels. Net revenue growth improved sequentially from the third quarter, driven by broad-based consumer demand for the Levi's brand. The strong top line growth, together with the measures we took to substantially improve the structural economics of our business, enabled us to achieve an adjusted EBIT margin of 12%, all while increasing our investments. Looking ahead to 2022, we are excited about our momentum and expect our top line growth to exceed our pre-pandemic growth algorithm and adjusted EBIT margin to expand beyond the 12.4% we delivered for full year 2021. I'll share more details when I provide our outlook following our holiday update. I will now walk you through our fourth quarter results, for which my comments will reference constant currency comparisons to 2019, unless I indicate otherwise.

謝謝，奇普。大家下午好。在持續充滿挑戰的宏觀背景下，我們在今年結束時又交付了一個非常強勁的季度，其中幾個關鍵指標顯著超過了 2019 年的水平。受消費者對李維斯品牌廣泛需求的推動，淨收入增長較第三季度環比增長。強勁的收入增長，加上我們為大幅改善業務結構經濟而採取的措施，使我們能夠在增加投資的同時實現 12% 的調整後息稅前利潤率。展望 2022 年，我們對我們的勢頭感到興奮，並預計我們的收入增長將超過大流行前的增長算法，調整後的息稅前利潤率將擴大到超過 2021 年全年交付的 12.4%。我將在我分享更多細節時在假期更新後提供我們的展望。我現在將向您介紹我們的第四季度業績，除非我另有說明，否則我的評論將參考與 2019 年的恆定貨幣比較。

Compared to quarter 4 2019, constant currency and reported revenues were both up 7%, largely driven by higher AUR. The benefit of Black Friday and the acquisition of Beyond Yoga contributed approximately 3% to growth. This was offset by supply chain constraints, which limited further revenue opportunity by approximately $50 million or 3%. In the quarter, our direct-to-consumer channel increased 18% versus 2019 due to higher AURs, increased conversion and store expansion.

與 2019 年第四季度相比，固定匯率和報告收入均增長 7%，主要受 AUR 增加的推動。黑色星期五的好處和對 Beyond Yoga 的收購為增長貢獻了大約 3%。這被供應鏈限制所抵消，這將進一步的收入機會限制了大約 5000 萬美元或 3%。在本季度，由於更高的 AUR、更高的轉化率和門店擴張，我們的直接面向消費者的渠道比 2019 年增長了 18%。

Our e-commerce business was up 64%, delivering strong results across several key metrics, including AURs, traffic and conversion, and profitability in our e-commerce business continues to improve. For full year '21, its adjusted EBIT margin on a fully allocated basis expanded to mid-single digits versus the low single-digit margin shared a year ago. We expect adjusted EBIT margin in this channel to expand and track in parity with the company average as the business doubles in size in the coming years.

我們的電子商務業務增長了 64%，在包括 AUR、流量和轉化率在內的幾個關鍵指標上取得了強勁的業績，我們的電子商務業務的盈利能力繼續提高。對於 21 年全年，其調整後的 EBIT 利潤率在完全分配的基礎上擴大到中個位數，而一年前的利潤率為低個位數。隨著未來幾年業務規模翻番，我們預計該渠道的調整後息稅前利潤率將擴大並與公司平均水平持平。

Not only is our company-operated e-commerce profitability improving, but we also have a more highly penetrated total digital ecosystem. Net revenue through all digital channels grew nearly 60% versus 2019, representing 22% of total company net revenues for full year 2021, compared to 14% in 2019. Adjusted gross margin of 58.1% expanded 380 basis points versus 2019, largely attributable to what we believe to be sustainable drivers such as higher mix of sales from DTC and women's businesses as well as price increases and lower promotion. This was partially offset by a 60 basis point incremental airfreight impact.

不僅我們公司運營的電子商務盈利能力在提高，而且我們還擁有一個滲透率更高的整體數字生態系統。通過所有數字渠道的淨收入與 2019 年相比增長了近 60%，占公司 2021 年全年淨收入的 22%，而 2019 年為 14%。調整後的毛利率為 58.1%，與 2019 年相比增長了 380 個基點，這主要歸功於我們認為是可持續的驅動因素，例如 DTC 和女性業務的銷售組合增加以及價格上漲和促銷減少。這被 60 個基點的增量空運影響部分抵消。

Moving to SG&A. Our approach continues to be managing expenses while also continuing to strategically invest in our long-term growth. Adjusted SG&A expenses in the quarter were $776 million or 46% of net revenue compared to 45% of net revenue in quarter 4 of 2019. The approximately $70 million increase relative to quarter 4 2019 was primarily due to the investment spending in A&P as we amplify our Buy Better, Wear Longer campaign, higher DTC costs related to store expansion as well as the impact of currency and the addition of Beyond Yoga. While reinvesting significantly more in our brand, we still achieved an adjusted EBIT margin of 12%, expanding 270 basis points versus 2019.

轉移到 SG&A。我們的方法繼續管理費用，同時繼續戰略性地投資於我們的長期增長。本季度調整後的 SG&A 費用為 7.76 億美元，占淨收入的 46%，而 2019 年第四季度占淨收入的 45%。與 2019 年第四季度相比增加了約 7000 萬美元，主要是由於我們放大的 A&P 的投資支出我們的“買得更好、穿得更久”活動、與商店擴張相關的更高 DTC 成本以及貨幣的影響和 Beyond Yoga 的加入。雖然對我們的品牌進行了大量再投資，但我們仍實現了 12% 的調整後息稅前利潤率，與 2019 年相比擴大了 270 個基點。

I'll now take you through key highlights by segment. Be aware that given our recent reorganization and the acquisition of Beyond Yoga, we provided historic segment restatement. The regional segments include our Levi's brand, Levi's, Signature and Denizen; while the Other Brands segment includes Dockers and Beyond Yoga.

我現在將按部分向您介紹主要亮點。請注意，鑑於我們最近的重組和對 Beyond Yoga 的收購，我們提供了歷史性的細分市場重述。區域部門包括我們的 Levi's 品牌、Levi's、Signature 和 Denizen；而其他品牌部分包括 Dockers 和 Beyond Yoga。

In the Americas, revenues grew 12% in the fourth quarter, driven by a combination of increased price and higher unit volume, which has sequentially improved throughout the year. All channels were up with continued strength in U.S. wholesale and accelerated growth in our owned-and-operated stores and our e-commerce businesses. We saw growth across all markets, including the U.S., which was up 9% and nearly 40% growth in Latin America.

在美洲，第四季度的收入增長了 12%，這得益於價格上漲和單位數量增加，全年連續改善。所有渠道都在美國批發業務中持續走強，我們的自營商店和電子商務業務加速增長。我們看到所有市場都有增長，包括美國增長 9%，拉丁美洲增長近 40%。

Europe delivered strong results in the quarter, up 3% versus 2019, despite sporadic virus resurgences, which impairs consumer mobility in some markets. Excluding the impact of our footwear distributor becoming a licensee, Europe would have been up 6%. DTC was up 14%, reflecting growth across our company-operated mainline and outlet stores and e-commerce. Top markets, Germany and the U.K., were up double digits.

歐洲在本季度取得了強勁的業績，與 2019 年相比增長了 3%，儘管零星的病毒捲土重來，削弱了一些市場的消費者流動性。排除我們的鞋類經銷商成為被許可人的影響，歐洲將增長 6%。 DTC 增長 14%，反映了我們公司經營的主線和直銷店以及電子商務的增長。主要市場德國和英國上漲了兩位數。

Asia's revenues decreased 2%, representing double-digit sequential improvement versus Q3, driven by both DTC and wholesale even as COVID continued to impact many markets. While COVID remains a drag to results, there were several bright spots that give us confidence that Asia should rebound in a more normalized 2022 environment. Company-operated mainline stores inflected to growth and our e-commerce remained robust, up 49%. In China, growth in wholesale and company-operated mainline stores was offset primarily by approximately 80 less doors as we rationalize our franchisee base. Several markets, including ANZ, India, Korea and Malaysia, all delivered growth in the quarter.

儘管 COVID 繼續影響許多市場，但亞洲的收入下降了 2%，與第三季度相比出現了兩位數的環比增長，這是由 DTC 和批發推動的。儘管 COVID 仍然拖累業績，但有幾個亮點讓我們相信亞洲應該在 2022 年更加正常化的環境中反彈。公司自營的主線門店實現增長，我們的電子商務保持強勁增長 49%。在中國，批發和公司經營的主線商店的增長主要被約 80 家門店的減少所抵消，因為我們理順了我們的加盟商基礎。包括澳新銀行、印度、韓國和馬來西亞在內的幾個市場在本季度均實現了增長。

Our Other Brands revenues grew 4% in the quarter, reflective of the inclusion of the acquisition-to-date results of Beyond Yoga, which saw sales of approximately $15 million in the roughly 2-month period. Dockers revenues continue to improve. And while still being down versus 2019, each quarter in 2021 was sequentially better. Despite lower sales and increased marketing investment, Dockers profits and margins were higher versus full year 2019.

我們的其他品牌收入在本季度增長了 4%，這反映了 Beyond Yoga 迄今為止的收購結果，在大約 2 個月的時間裡，該公司的銷售額約為 1500 萬美元。碼頭工人的收入繼續提高。儘管與 2019 年相比仍有所下降，但 2021 年的每個季度都比 2021 年更好。儘管銷售額下降且營銷投資增加，但 Dockers 的利潤和利潤率高於 2019 年全年。

Turning to balance sheet and cash flows. Inventories at the end of the quarter were 2% above Q4 2019. We plan to build core inventory through the first half of the year to better meet consumer demand. As a reminder, approximately 2/3 of our inventory is comprised of core nonseasonal products.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。本季度末的庫存比 2019 年第四季度高 2%。我們計劃在今年上半年建立核心庫存，以更好地滿足消費者需求。提醒一下，我們大約 2/3 的庫存由核心非季節性產品組成。

Cash and liquidity remains strong with quarter end net debt at $125 million and overall liquidity of $1.7 billion. Our leverage ratio is now 1.2x, the lowest it has been since the mid-'19. Adjusted free cash flow through the year was $230 million, nearly double the $116 million of 2019, again demonstrating how we are emerging stronger from the pandemic with higher profitability and improved cash management and working capital with a shorter cash conversion cycle.

現金和流動性依然強勁，季度末淨債務為 1.25 億美元，整體流動性為 17 億美元。我們的槓桿率現在是 1.2 倍，是自 19 年中期以來的最低水平。全年調整後的自由現金流為 2.3 億美元，幾乎是 2019 年的 1.16 億美元的兩倍，再次證明了我們如何以更高的盈利能力和更短的現金轉換週期改善現金管理和營運資本，從而從大流行中變得更加強大。

Our return on invested capital was 26%, a 10-year record, and we continue to invest behind high ROI growth initiatives. Full year CapEx was $167 million, 2/3 of which went towards technology spend to support our business growth and 1/3 to accelerate our DTC initiative. We expanded our store footprint primarily with our new digitally enabled NextGen stores. We opened 92 doors over the year, bringing our total company-operated store count at year-end to 1,083 doors.

我們的投資資本回報率為 26%，創下 10 年的記錄，我們將繼續投資支持高 ROI 增長計劃。全年資本支出為 1.67 億美元，其中 2/3 用於技術支出以支持我們的業務增長，1/3 用於加速我們的 DTC 計劃。我們主要通過我們新的數字化 NextGen 商店擴大了我們的商店足跡。我們在一年中開設了 92 家門店，使年底公司經營的門店總數達到 1,083 家。

Touching next on our performance during the holiday, which we define as the combination of November and December. The momentum in our business extended through holiday. Despite earlier holiday shopping and COVID-related impact, both months saw results above our expectations. Overall, total company revenue was up 28% versus 2020, reflecting both our DTC and wholesale channels performing well. Revenue growth was led by strong results by the Levi's brand in the U.S., up 20% versus 2020, and 9% versus 2019. Gross margin also continued to see robust expansion due to similar drivers as the fourth quarter.

接下來談談我們在假期期間的表現，我們將假期定義為 11 月和 12 月的組合。我們的業務勢頭延續到假期。儘管較早的假日購物和與 COVID 相關的影響，這兩個月的結果都超出了我們的預期。總體而言，公司總收入與 2020 年相比增長了 28%，這反映了我們的 DTC 和批發渠道都表現良好。收入增長由李維斯品牌在美國的強勁業績引領，與 2020 年相比增長 20%，與 2019 年相比增長 9%。由於與第四季度類似的驅動因素，毛利率也繼續強勁增長。

While we will provide updated long-term financial targets at an Investor Day later this year, I will now turn to our fiscal 2022 outlook. As a reminder, we'll provide annual guidance and we'll update our annual guidance each quarter as necessary as we move through the year.

雖然我們將在今年晚些時候的投資者日提供更新的長期財務目標，但我現在將轉向我們的 2022 財年展望。提醒一下，我們將提供年度指導，並且我們將在每個季度根據需要更新我們的年度指導。

Overall, we are confident that we'll be able to deliver an even better year in fiscal 2022. We expect net revenues between $6.4 billion and $6.5 billion, representing reported growth of 11% to 13% year-over-year, which reflects continued strength in the U.S. with growth exceeding its pre-pandemic algorithm, Europe's growth accelerating as the region reopened, and the strongest growth in Asia as the region recovers to more normalized levels. For gross margin, we anticipate expansion of around 15 to 30 basis points against last year. This is driven by the accelerated shift of our business towards DTC, digital, women's and international, combined with the benefit of price increases and operating with healthy inventory. Our SG&A rate is expected to see leverage of approximately 10 basis points versus 2021. The increase in incremental dollars is targeted in areas accelerating and supporting our growth, including advertising, e-commerce, our store fleet and technology.

總體而言，我們有信心在 2022 財年實現更好的業績。我們預計淨收入在 64 億美元至 65 億美元之間，報告的同比增長 11% 至 13%，這反映了持續美國的增長超過了大流行前的算法，歐洲的增長隨著該地區的重新開放而加速，隨著該地區恢復到更加正常的水平，亞洲的增長最為強勁。對於毛利率，我們預計將比去年擴大約 15 至 30 個基點。這是由於我們的業務加速轉向 DTC、數字、女性和國際業務，再加上價格上漲和健康庫存運營的好處。與 2021 年相比，我們的 SG&A 利率預計將增加約 10 個基點。增量美元的增加針對加速和支持我們增長的領域，包括廣告、電子商務、我們的商店車隊和技術。

Overall, we expect adjusted EBIT margin expansion of around 20 to 40 basis points year-over-year, well exceeding the 12%-plus target we laid out in 2021. We anticipate a full year tax rate in the mid- to high teens and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $1.50 to $1.56, which is higher than 2021 despite the increase in tax rates to more normalized levels.

總體而言，我們預計調整後的息稅前利潤率將同比增長約 20 至 40 個基點，遠超我們在 2021 年制定的 12% 以上的目標。我們預計全年稅率為中高水平和調整後的攤薄每股收益在 1.50 美元至 1.56 美元之間，儘管稅率提高到更正常的水平，但仍高於 2021 年。

We continue to invest behind high ROI growth initiative, and uses of capital in 2022 include full year CapEx of around $270 million. Capital spending in fiscal 2022 is focused on initiatives that will drive significant returns across our business. The increase versus 2021 reflects increased investments in growth CapEx largely behind our digital initiatives, including the continued rollout of our ERP as well as new store openings and renovations in our fleet in addition to the 2 distribution centers Chip spoke about.

我們繼續投資支持高 ROI 增長計劃，2022 年的資本使用包括全年資本支出約 2.7 億美元。 2022 財年的資本支出主要集中在能夠為我們的業務帶來顯著回報的舉措上。與 2021 年相比的增長反映了對增長資本支出的投資增加，這主要是在我們的數字計劃背後，包括我們的 ERP 的持續推出以及我們車隊的新店開業和翻新以及 Chip 談到的 2 個配送中心。

In terms of DTC brick-and-mortar, we anticipate opening more than 100 Levi's doors globally. In the U.S., we plan to open around 30 full-priced NextGen doors in 2022, taking our mainline door count to approximately 50 by the end of the year as we progress towards our goal of opening 100 full-price doors in the U.S. I'm also pleased to announce that we're increasing our quarterly dividend payment to $0.10 per share, exceeding pre-pandemic levels based on our strong balance sheet and cash flow as well as our continued confidence in our structurally stronger business.

就 DTC 實體店而言，我們預計在全球開設 100 多家 Levi's 門店。在美國，我們計劃在 2022 年開設大約 30 個全價 NextGen 門，到年底將我們的主線門數增加到大約 50 個，因為我們朝著在美國開設 100 個全價門的目標前進。 m 還高興地宣布，基於我們強勁的資產負債表和現金流以及我們對結構更強大的業務的持續信心，我們將季度股息支付增加到每股 0.10 美元，超過了大流行前的水平。

Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to leave you with 3 key thoughts. First, we are pleased with what we accomplished in fiscal 2021, delivering our highest revenue and profitability in over 2 decades despite the pandemic continuing to impact consumer mobility, the disruption to the supply chain and inflationary headwinds.

在我們進行問答之前，我想給您留下 3 個關鍵想法。首先，我們對我們在 2021 財年取得的成就感到滿意，儘管大流行繼續影響消費者流動性、供應鏈中斷和通脹逆風，但我們仍實現了 20 多年來的最高收入和盈利能力。

Second, our improved structural economics helped us generate in 2021 a record gross margin and 12.4% adjusted EBIT margin. We continue to have sustainable margin drivers as we grow DTC, digital and women while also optimizing margins via AI and machine learning. The strength of our brand supports our pricing initiatives while continuing to provide great value to our consumers.

其次，我們改善的結構經濟學幫助我們在 2021 年創造了創紀錄的毛利率和 12.4% 的調整後息稅前利潤率。隨著 DTC、數字和女性的發展，我們繼續擁有可持續的利潤率驅動力，同時還通過人工智能和機器學習優化利潤率。我們的品牌實力支持我們的定價計劃，同時繼續為我們的消費者提供巨大的價值。

Third, our free cash flows and balance sheet are strong, allowing us to increase capital deployment across our priorities while also producing our lowest leverage ratio in decades. Indeed, in 2021, we successfully allocated capital across investments to grow the business organically, returned cash to our shareholders and completed our first inorganic acquisition all while generating the highest ROIC in a decade.

第三，我們的自由現金流和資產負債表強勁，使我們能夠在我們的優先事項中增加資本部署，同時還產生了幾十年來最低的槓桿率。事實上，在 2021 年，我們成功地在投資中分配資本以實現業務的有機增長，向股東返還現金，並完成了我們的第一次無機收購，同時創造了十年來最高的投資回報率。

In closing, we are pleased with our momentum, and the strong outlook we've provided for 2022 is underpinned by the strength of our brands, discipline in allocating capital towards the right strategic priorities and proven agility in managing through crises.

最後，我們對我們的發展勢頭感到滿意，我們為 2022 年提供的強勁前景得益於我們的品牌實力、將資金分配給正確的戰略重點的紀律以及在危機管理方面證明的敏捷性。

With that, I will now open it up for questions.

有了這個，我現在將打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Congrats on another nice quarter guys.

恭喜又一個不錯的季度傢伙。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

So Chip, can you speak to larger-picture trends in the denim category, your level of optimism into '22, maybe based on what you're seeing today?

所以 Chip，你能否談談牛仔布類別的大趨勢，你對 22 年的樂觀程度，也許是基於你今天所看到的？

And then Harmit, what gives you confidence in 11% to 13% revenue growth as the starting point for this year? If you could just help bridge this outlook relative to your mid-single-digit historical algorithm.

然後是 Harmit，是什麼讓你有信心將 11% 到 13% 的收入增長作為今年的起點？如果你能幫助彌合這種與你的中個位數歷史算法相關的前景。

All right. I'll start, and Harmit, you can take the second half of the question. But I think there's every reason to be optimistic about denim and denim category growth as we go forward. There are 3 kind of big things that are happening that are driving it. First is this continued acceleration of the casualization trend, which is not just a U.S. phenomenon. It's really happening around the world.

好的。我會開始，Harmit，你可以回答問題的後半部分。但我認為，隨著我們的發展，我們完全有理由對牛仔布和牛仔布類別的增長持樂觀態度。有 3 種正在發生的大事情正在推動它。首先是休閒化趨勢的持續加速，這不僅僅是美國的現象。它真的在世界各地發生。

Number two is we're still in what I would call the early innings of the new denim cycle, the new -- the looser, baggier fits really driving the category. And keep in mind that this is on both men's and women's. The last big cycle was skinny jeans, which was a women's only thing. And the new denim cycle drives apparels broadly. It drives footwear. It drives tops as well. So I'm optimistic for that reason.

第二是我們仍處於我所說的新牛仔週期的早期階段，新的——更寬鬆、更寬鬆的服裝真正推動了這一類別。請記住，這適用於男士和女士。最後一個大周期是緊身牛仔褲，這是女性唯一的東西。新的牛仔布週期廣泛推動了服裝。它驅動鞋類。它也驅動頂部。因此，出於這個原因，我很樂觀。

And then the third thing -- we've mentioned this in the past, is here in the U.S., more than 1/3 of Americans, almost 40%, have had their waist size changed during the pandemic, and that's driving the need for a closet upgrade or a closet refresh. And we see it in the results that in bottoms, we're up 11% in Q4, Levi's men's was up 6%, women's was up 21%. The 501, which is our most iconic item, was up 23% to 2019. All of those are versus 2019, so really strong across both men's and women's.

然後第三件事——我們過去提到過，在美國，超過 1/3（近 40%）的美國人在大流行期間改變了腰圍尺寸，這推動了對壁櫥升級或壁櫥刷新。我們從結果中看到，在底部，我們在第四季度上漲了 11%，李維斯男裝上漲了 6%，女裝上漲了 21%。 501 是我們最具標誌性的單品，到 2019 年上漲了 23%。所有這些都是與 2019 年相比，男裝和女裝都非常強勁。

And I guess the other thing I would say just to keep in mind and I've got to hammer this point home, we are by far the global market leader in denim. If you look at Euromonitor, we're #1 in men's, we're #1 in women's. We're #1 overall obviously. But importantly, we're bigger (inaudible) in '21 versus '20 than any other major brand measured. And then if you take a look at the U.S., which is still the biggest market, we have opportunities here. We're still only #2 in women's here in the U.S., but we were the only brand -- only major brand to grow women's share over the past 12 months. We added a full share point on our women's business in the U.S., and we added a full share point on an important 18 to 30 demographic. So we've got a great share story to tell on top of, I think, a pretty robust category story. So -- and it's a big part of the reason why we're optimistic about the year ahead.

我想我要說的另一件事是為了牢記，我必須牢記這一點，我們是迄今為止牛仔布的全球市場領導者。如果你看看 Euromonitor，我們在男裝中排名第一，在女裝中排名第一。我們顯然是整體排名第一。但重要的是，我們在 21 和 20 年比任何其他主要品牌都更大（聽不清）。如果你看看美國，它仍然是最大的市場，我們在這裡有機會。在美國，我們仍然僅在女裝領域排名第二，但我們是唯一的品牌——過去 12 個月中唯一增長女性份額的主要品牌。我們在美國的女性業務中增加了一個完整的份額點，我們在 18 到 30 歲的重要人群中增加了一個完整的份額點。所以我們有一個很好的分享故事，我認為，一個非常強大的類別故事。所以——這也是我們對未來一年持樂觀態度的重要原因。

And to your question -- yes, and to your question, Matt, on the 11% to 13% guidance, a couple of things. We have momentum as we step into the year. You've seen our holiday sales. Our businesses that underpenetrated women's has been growing really strongly. Digital is a bigger component of our business. And so it's growing strongly. As we talk to our customers, our orders are reflecting growth, the orders that we see, whether it's prebooked in the -- in Europe and other orders that we're tracking in the U.S. Our direct-to-consumer, which was the bulk of the growth in quarter 4, is coming back nicely despite traffic still being down. Beyond Yoga adds about 2 points of growth. Dockers is turning around, and that should also be accretive to our business. So I think as we think about the 11% to 13% guidance, our view is we've got tailwinds, as Chip talked about from a category perspective, but a lot of things we are doing are fairly strong.

關於你的問題——是的，關於你的問題，馬特，關於 11% 到 13% 的指導，有幾件事。當我們步入這一年時，我們有動力。你已經看到了我們的假日促銷。我們在女性領域滲透率較低的業務一直在強勁增長。數字化是我們業務中更大的組成部分。所以它正在強勁增長。當我們與客戶交談時，我們的訂單反映了增長，我們看到的訂單，無論是在歐洲預訂還是我們在美國跟踪的其他訂單我們的直接面向消費者，這是大部分在第四季度的增長中，儘管流量仍在下降，但仍能很好地恢復。 Beyond Yoga 增加了大約 2 個增長點。碼頭工人正在扭轉局面，這也應該對我們的業務產生增長。所以我認為，當我們考慮 11% 到 13% 的指導時，我們的觀點是我們有順風，正如 Chip 從類別的角度談到的那樣，但我們正在做的很多事情都相當強大。

If you think about the growth algorithm regionally, I think the strength of the consumer in the U.S. -- and we've looked at it everywhere and twice on a Sunday, where there's economic forecast from banks, credit card data. The consumer is pretty strong. So we think Americas drives higher growth, high single-digit growth in 2022, which is higher than our growth algorithm. Asia, as things rebound, I think you'd see high growth higher than our growth algorithm. I'd say Europe, because of Omicron and what different countries are dealing with, is a high single-digit growth. Hopefully, we're conservative and they prove was wrong but they -- the gross margins are fairly good. And so -- and they're largely a direct-to-consumer business. So that really helps.

如果您考慮區域的增長算法，我認為美國消費者的實力 - 我們已經在周日兩次查看了它，那裡有來自銀行的經濟預測，信用卡數據。消費者很強大。因此，我們認為美洲在 2022 年推動了更高的增長，高個位數的增長，這高於我們的增長算法。亞洲，隨著事情的反彈，我認為你會看到高增長高於我們的增長算法。我想說的是，由於 Omicron 和不同國家正在處理的問題，歐洲是個位數的高增長。希望我們是保守的，他們證明是錯誤的，但他們 - 毛利率相當不錯。所以——它們主要是直接面向消費者的業務。所以這真的很有幫助。

If you think about it by channel, a stronger growth in wholesale globally and outsized growth in direct-to-consumer, which is great because it helps our gross margin. And if you think about categories, tops and bottoms, I'd say bottoms slightly higher because of the casualization trends that we've seen in the past. And tops, we continue to be underpenetrated, so higher than what we've seen in the past. We will lay out our longer-term growth algorithm, Matt, when we have an Investor Day, but clearly, I think we seem to be headed towards a stronger growth algorithm than we had pre-pandemic.

如果您從渠道考慮，全球批發業的強勁增長和直接面向消費者的超額增長，這很好，因為它有助於我們的毛利率。如果你考慮類別，頂部和底部，我會說底部略高，因為我們過去看到的休閒化趨勢。最重要的是，我們的滲透率仍然很低，比我們過去看到的要高得多。當我們有投資者日時，我們將展示我們的長期增長算法馬特，但顯然，我認為我們似乎正朝著比大流行前更強大的增長算法邁進。

Our next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas Exane.

我們的下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 Laurent Vasilescu。

Harmit, you talked about $50 million in supply chain constraints. How do we think about that for the first quarter and first half regarding these constraints? If you can give us any finer points on that particularly with regards to 1Q performance year-over-year, how do we think about that in the context of the constraints but also the European lockdowns from last winter?

Harmit，你談到了 5000 萬美元的供應鏈限制。關於這些限制，我們如何看待第一季度和上半年的情況？如果您可以就這一點給我們任何更詳細的說明，特別是在第一季度的同比表現方面，在限制因素以及去年冬天歐洲封鎖的背景下，我們如何看待這一點？

Yes. Sure. So the good news is demand for our product and brands is outstripping supply, but we can confidently say that we did -- everybody who wanted a pair of Levi's to place on the Christmas tree, as Chip likes to call it, got it. But demand outstripped supply. We have had to book more shipping capacity because we had pegged capacity at a certain point and a certain rate, right, because we needed more. We had to book at higher rates. But generally speaking, I'd say demand higher than supply, we probably see that continue. I'd say definitely for the first half of the year. And that's where you've seen a range in our numbers. We're doing what we can. Our distribution teams, our retail store associates are really working around the clock to make sure we're able to service demand.

是的。當然。所以好消息是對我們的產品和品牌的需求超過了供應，但我們可以自信地說我們做到了——每個想要一雙李維斯放在聖誕樹上的人，正如奇普喜歡這樣稱呼它，都得到了。但供不應求。我們不得不預訂更多的運力，因為我們已經將運力固定在某個點和某個費率，對，因為我們需要更多。我們不得不以更高的價格預訂。但總的來說，我會說需求高於供應，我們可能會看到這種情況繼續存在。我肯定會說上半年。這就是您在我們的數字中看到的範圍。我們正在做我們能做的。我們的分銷團隊、我們的零售店員工確實在夜以繼日地工作，以確保我們能夠滿足需求。

The other thing that we are going to be doing, Laurent, is we will -- we plan to build a little bit more of the core inventory, especially in the U.S., relative to sales especially in the first half, not a lot but a little bit more because we do want to have inventory to service consumer needs. And on a full year basis, it's difficult to predict how long this continues. I mean economists and folks are talking about supply chain constraints dissipating or reducing in the second half. We are taking what we call more of a conservative view. And should that really happen, it definitely bodes well for our brands and our business, but we're going to do what we can. And because core is a large piece of our inventory, I think building a little bit of inventory will probably work to our advantage and to our consumers' needs over time.

Laurent，我們將要做的另一件事是，我們計劃建立更多的核心庫存，尤其是在美國，相對於上半年的銷售額而言，不是很多，而是多一點，因為我們確實希望有庫存來滿足消費者的需求。在全年的基礎上，很難預測這種情況會持續多久。我的意思是經濟學家和人們正在談論供應鏈限制在下半年消散或減少。我們正在採取我們所謂的更保守的觀點。如果這種情況真的發生，這對我們的品牌和業務來說無疑是個好兆頭，但我們將盡我們所能。而且由於核心是我們庫存的很大一部分，我認為隨著時間的推移，建立一點庫存可能會對我們有利並滿足我們消費者的需求。

Our next question comes from Omar Saad of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Omar Saad。

I'd like to ask actually about inflation as well as pricing power. Kind of how are you seeing inflation develop for '22, cost inflation? And maybe put into context the gross margin guidance that you gave, how much of that is kind of proactive price increases offsetting inflation? As well as what's your expectation around the reduced promotional environment? Do you expect that to continue? Or do you expect that to rebound a little bit versus the -- how 2021 played out?

我想問一下通貨膨脹和定價能力。您如何看待 22 年的通貨膨脹，成本通貨膨脹？也許將您提供的毛利率指導納入背景，其中有多少是積極的價格上漲抵消通貨膨脹？以及您對減少的促銷環境有何期望？你希望這種情況繼續下去嗎？或者您是否預計與 2021 年的表現相比會有所反彈？

Sure, Omar. Let me talk a little bit about how we're thinking about COGS and then I'll talk to you about the puts and takes on the gross margin. So on COGS, last time when we reported Q3, we said we were in the process of locking in the second half supply and we're negotiating prices. We locked in COGS slightly higher than the mid-single digit, which we think is still better than the market but it is slightly higher. We are effectively pricing for it. Our view is because we are locked in the first half at about a percentage increase relative to 2020, the increase in COGS is -- for the year is about mid-single digits. So that's how we're thinking about it. We use about 15% to 20% of cotton. Cotton continues to be high, but because we're effectively priced for it, we think we'll be able to -- our gross margins will be able to offset that even as we think about H1 2023.

當然，奧馬爾。讓我談談我們對 COGS 的看法，然後我會和你談談看跌期權和毛利率。所以在 COGS 上，上次我們報告第三季度時，我們說我們正在鎖定下半年的供應，我們正在談判價格。我們鎖定的銷貨成本略高於中個位數，我們認為這仍然好於市場，但略高。我們正在有效地為它定價。我們的觀點是，因為我們在上半年被鎖定在相對於 2020 年大約一個百分比的增長，所以 COGS 的增長是 - 今年大約是中個位數。所以我們就是這麼想的。我們使用大約 15% 到 20% 的棉花。棉花繼續保持高位，但由於我們有效地為它定價，我們認為我們能夠——即使我們考慮到 2023 年上半年，我們的毛利率也將能夠抵消這一點。

Talking about gross margin and how we're thinking about gross margins, we did signal that gross margin for '22 would be about, I think, 15 to 30 basis points higher than the record gross margins in 2021. The puts and takes on that is pricing probably helps gross margin between 200 and 250 basis points, but we think that will offset inflation, which is largely COGS and higher dilution. We did reflect in the last few calls that the promotional environment probably doesn't continue. So we've kind of built that in. And so that's one piece of it, pricing offsetting inflation and higher dilution. I think dilution probably stepping up sometime quarter 2 onwards rather than quarter 1 because inventories continue to be tight.

談到毛利率以及我們如何看待毛利率，我們確實表示，我認為 22 年的毛利率將比 2021 年的創紀錄毛利率高出 15 到 30 個基點。定價可能有助於將毛利率提高 200 至 250 個基點，但我們認為這將抵消通脹，這主要是銷貨成本和更高的稀釋度。我們在最近幾次電話會議中確實反映了促銷環境可能不會繼續下去。所以我們已經把它內置了。這就是其中的一部分，定價抵消了通貨膨脹和更高的稀釋度。我認為稀釋可能會在第二季度而不是第一季度的某個時候加速，因為庫存繼續緊張。

Our structural improvements in our business, whether it's DTC, women's, Beyond Yoga, add 40 to 50 basis points, which is our growth algorithm. And then we had a reasonable amount of airfreight, but because ocean freight has stepped up, we think the combination of higher ocean freight and potentially reduction in airfreight is about 20 to 30 basis points of headwind. And that's what makes up the gross margin, different puts and takes leading to a 15 to 30 basis points of gross margin accretion year-over-year. That's our thinking. We think this probably -- it kind of progresses evenly through the year, maybe gross margin slightly higher in the first half versus the second half, but that's how we're thinking about it.

我們在業務上的結構性改進，無論是 DTC、女裝、Beyond Yoga，都增加了 40 到 50 個基點，這是我們的增長算法。然後我們有合理數量的空運，但由於海運增加了，我們認為更高的海運和空運的潛在減少的組合是逆風約 20 到 30 個基點。這就是構成毛利率的原因，不同的看跌期權和收益導致毛利率同比增長 15 到 30 個基點。這就是我們的想法。我們認為這可能 - 它在全年中進展順利，上半年的毛利率可能略高於下半年，但這就是我們的想法。

Our next question comes from Chris Nardone of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Chris Nardone。

It looks like you guys saw some nice recovery in Asia with revenues getting back to '19 levels during the quarter but full year EBIT margins in the region still pretty well below pre-pandemic levels. Can you discuss whether there are any structural differences today that will prevent you from returning to those pre-pandemic levels? And if you could just generally provide some comments around your strategy in Asia, that would be great.

看起來你們在亞洲看到了一些不錯的複蘇，本季度收入恢復到 19 年的水平，但該地區的全年息稅前利潤率仍遠低於大流行前的水平。您能否討論一下今天是否存在任何結構性差異會阻止您恢復到大流行前的水平？如果您可以就您在亞洲的戰略提供一些一般性的評論，那就太好了。

Yes. The -- I think the reason the operating margin in Asia were down, really a combination of 2 things. One was volumes being down. Asia is about 15%, 16% of our business, doesn't nearly leverage our operating costs as much as some of the other regions. The second is we were investing in China. The good news is China, in quarter 4, actually made money. It had lost money in quarter 3 and earlier part of the year. So that was why operating margins were impacted.

是的。 - 我認為亞洲營業利潤率下降的原因實際上是兩件事的結合。一是成交量下降。亞洲約占我們業務的 15%、16%，幾乎沒有像其他一些地區那樣充分利用我們的運營成本。第二個是我們在中國投資。好消息是，中國在第四季度確實賺錢了。它在第三季度和今年早些時候虧損。這就是營業利潤率受到影響的原因。

I think as you think about Asia longer term, I'd say Asia coming back to pre-pandemic levels will make a sizable difference. Our gross margins around the company are higher. Our costs around the company are lower. So I think that impacts operating margins nicely over time. But I think the way operating margins improve sustainably in Asia, it's all going to be driven by volume. And as we reflected or I reflected in my script, there were markets that actually turned to growth in Asia. And that is -- that was pleasing as we ended the quarter.

我認為當您從長遠來看亞洲時，我會說亞洲恢復到大流行前的水平將產生相當大的影響。我們在公司周圍的毛利率更高。我們在公司周圍的成本更低。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，這會很好地影響營業利潤率。但我認為亞洲運營利潤率持續提高的方式，都將受到銷量的推動。正如我們或我在劇本中所反映的那樣，有些市場實際上轉向了亞洲的增長。那就是 - 當我們結束本季度時，這是令人愉快的。

Our next question comes from Bob Drbul of Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Bob Drbul。

Just wondering, Chip, could you talk a little bit about the progress you made on the wholesale business? I think specifically in the U.S. piece of it, just the profitability gains. I don't know if you could share the percentage for the fiscal year in terms of where that business ended up.

只是想知道，Chip，你能談談你在批發業務上取得的進展嗎？我認為特別是在美國的一部分，只是盈利能力的提高。我不知道您是否可以根據該業務的最終結果分享本財年的百分比。

And just curious on like the game plan on inventories and orders that you're seeing. I think Harmit mentioned it, but if you could maybe just address a little bit around the game plan and what you see on inventory levels and inventory orders from your wholesale partners.

並且只是對您所看到的庫存和訂單的遊戲計劃感到好奇。我認為 Harmit 提到了這一點，但如果您可以就遊戲計劃以及您在批發合作夥伴的庫存水平和庫存訂單上看到的內容進行一些說明。

Yes. First of all, happy new year, Bob. We put a lot of effort, as you know, into kind of remapping our wholesale footprint to make it more premium and more digital over time. And that's really paid off. Our wholesale business today is much more profitable. I'm not going to give you a number, but it's a lot more profitable today than it was before. And certainly, the lower promotional environment has been good for us, good for the brand and good for our customers as well.

是的。首先，新年快樂，鮑勃。如您所知，我們付出了很多努力來重新映射我們的批發足跡，以使其隨著時間的推移變得更加優質和數字化。這真的得到了回報。我們今天的批發業務利潤更高。我不會給你一個數字，但今天它比以前更有利可圖。當然，較低的促銷環境對我們有利，對品牌有利，對我們的客戶也有利。

But the pandemic definitely accelerated growth in the channel, and we had a good holiday as well here in the U.S. But I think our success in U.S. wholesale has largely -- is largely traced to the work that we did to premiumize our business and really get our footprint right, so real elevation with customers like Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's. The addition of Target as one of our customers here has been really big for us, a very small, tight assortment but really premium elevation of the brand, great in-store execution.

但是大流行確實加速了渠道的增長，我們在美國也度過了一個愉快的假期，但我認為我們在美國批發市場的成功很大程度上——很大程度上歸功於我們為提升業務所做的工作，並真正獲得我們的足跡正確，因此與 Nordstrom 和 Bloomingdale's 等客戶的關係真正提升。 Target 作為我們這裡的客戶之一對我們來說真的很重要，一個非常小的，緊湊的分類，但真正提升了品牌，出色的店內執行。

So wholesale gross margin and profitability are the strongest they've been in a long, long time. And again, as I said, lower promotional environment has helped that. And then when we do have this Analyst Day that we keep talking about, which is going to come later this year in the spring, late spring, we'll share a full growth algorithm about what we're expecting from wholesale over time.

因此，批發毛利率和盈利能力是長期以來最強勁的。同樣，正如我所說，較低的促銷環境對此有所幫助。然後，當我們確實有這個我們一直在談論的分析師日時，它將在今年春天晚些時候，春末到來，我們將分享一個完整的增長算法，關於隨著時間的推移我們對批發的期望。

I guess the last thing I would say is brick-and-mortar wholesale, so just the brick-and-mortar component of it, is only around 10% of our sales today, which is down hugely from 10 years ago when I joined here. I mean U.S. wholesale at the time was almost half of the company's total business. Today, brick-and-mortar U.S. wholesale is about 10% of our total revenue. It's a massive transformation for us over the last decade.

我想我要說的最後一件事是實體批發，所以它的實體部分僅占我們今天銷售額的 10% 左右，與 10 年前我加入這裡時相比大幅下降.我的意思是當時美國的批發業務幾乎占公司總業務的一半。今天，美國實體批發業務約占我們總收入的 10%。在過去十年中，這對我們來說是一次巨大的轉變。

Got it. And if I could just sneak in one more for you, Chip. Are you -- do you think the Niners are going to win this weekend? And are you guys planning for a big Levi's commercial in the Super Bowl at this point in time?

知道了。如果我可以再偷偷給你一個，奇普。你——你認為九人隊會在本週末獲勝嗎？你們是否計劃在這個時間點在超級碗中製作大型李維斯廣告？

Well, here's what I will tell you. What Super Bowl is this, 56, right? And what's 56 in Roman letters? It's LVI. So the only thing that's missing is the letter E.

好吧，這就是我要告訴你的。這是什麼超級碗，56，對吧？羅馬字母中的 56 是什麼？是 LVI。所以唯一缺少的是字母 E。

So we'll see it in the Super Bowl. Good luck.

所以我們將在超級碗中看到它。祝你好運。

Thanks a lot. Yes.

非常感謝。是的。

Our next question comes from Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢集團的 Dana Telsey。

Happy new year. As you think about the CapEx budget for this year, is $270 million the new number? Or is the new distribution centers adding to that? How do you break it down?

新年快樂。當您考慮今年的資本支出預算時，新數字是 2.7 億美元嗎？還是新的配送中心增加了這一點？你如何分解它？

And then just following up on digital, what are you seeing on that digital margin? You mentioned the improvement. Where do you think that could go?

然後只是跟進數字，你在數字邊緣看到了什麼？你提到了改進。你認為這可以去哪裡？

Okay. Dana, happy new year to you, too. On CapEx, CapEx is -- over time, we have stepped up CapEx as the company generated a decent amount of cash. And we've invested, I would say, wisely because our return on invested capital as a company is at a 10-year high, about 26%. So there is discipline in how we allocate capital. Why is capital higher? It's about 4%, a little over 4% of revenue depending on where you pay the revenue. The increase is largely driven by a couple of things.

好的。 Dana，也祝你新年快樂。在資本支出方面，資本支出——隨著時間的推移，我們已經提高了資本支出，因為公司產生了大量的現金。我會說，我們的投資是明智的，因為我們作為一家公司的投資資本回報率處於 10 年來的最高水平，約為 26%。因此，我們如何分配資本是有紀律的。為什麼資本更高？大約是 4%，略高於收入的 4%，具體取決於您在哪裡支付收入。增長主要是由幾件事推動的。

We did talk about the distribution centers in Europe and in the East Coast in the U.S. And that is to service higher demand and importantly drive more efficiency in how we fulfill because we can have visibility inventory across direct-to-consumer and drive the channel that is really growing, which is e-commerce. We are also -- during the pandemic, we had scaled back on remodels. And as I said, we have 1,000-plus stores. We're trying to scale that back. That's good ROI. And now that we have a NextGen model that is working around the world, we have something we can retrofit too, plus the 100-odd new stores that we talked about. We're also spending more money on digital as we're trying to grow the e-commerce business, whether it's scaling our loyalty program, scaling our apps, scaling BOPIS, the basic things that today define what the good omnichannel retailers are about. We are also scaling AI and machine learning, and there is a wonderful ERP upgrade which is happening. So I think a combination of factors but my view is 2/3 of the capital is still growth-oriented.

我們確實談到了歐洲和美國東海岸的配送中心，這是為了滿足更高的需求，重要的是提高我們的履行效率，因為我們可以擁有直接面向消費者的可見性庫存並推動渠道真正成長起來的，就是電子商務。我們也 - 在大流行期間，我們縮減了改造規模。正如我所說，我們有 1000 多家商店。我們正試圖縮小規模。這是很好的投資回報率。現在我們有了一個在世界範圍內運行的 NextGen 模型，我們也有一些可以改造的東西，以及我們談到的 100 多家新商店。我們還在努力發展電子商務業務時在數字化方面投入了更多資金，無論是擴展我們的忠誠度計劃、擴展我們的應用程序、擴展 BOPIS，這些都是當今定義優秀全渠道零售商的基本要素。我們還在擴展人工智能和機器學習，並且正在進行一次精彩的 ERP 升級。所以我認為綜合因素，但我的觀點是 2/3 的資本仍然是增長導向的。

So that's the first answer to your question on capital. I think your second question -- second piece, I don't know -- sorry, or -- Dana, can you help me?

所以這是你關於資本問題的第一個答案。我想你的第二個問題——第二個問題，我不知道——對不起，或者——Dana，你能幫我嗎？

Digital margin. Yes, digital margin.

數字保證金。是的，數字保證金。

On the digital margin, it's a simple -- the good news is it's mid-single digit from low single digit at the end of last year from numbers being in the red pre-pandemic. I think our view is if you can double our own e-commerce business, which will take a couple of years, we think we can get to the 12% number. And so it's largely a volume game plus as we build efficiencies through digital and distribution, that also helps. So I think that's what we're trying to do. I think the headwind is obviously distribution costs, but we've got enough factors, including volume leverage that help offset that.

在數字邊際上，這很簡單——好消息是從去年年底的低個位數到大流行前的紅色數字，它是中個位數。我認為我們的觀點是，如果您可以將我們自己的電子商務業務翻一番，這將需要幾年時間，我們認為我們可以達到 12% 的數字。因此，這在很大程度上是一場體量遊戲，而且當我們通過數字和分銷提高效率時，這也有幫助。所以我認為這就是我們正在努力做的事情。我認為不利因素顯然是分銷成本，但我們有足夠的因素，包括有助於抵消這一點的數量槓桿。

Great. And just, Chip, lastly, anything on Beyond Yoga, the early insights that you're gleaning there and what you're seeing?

偉大的。最後，Chip，關於 Beyond Yoga 的任何內容，你在那裡收集的早期見解以及你所看到的？

Sure. I guess what I would say is a couple of things. First of all, we're pretty much complete with the integration, and we are really, really happy. I mean no big surprises. We kind of got what we thought we were going to get. It's one important headline. That's great. But beyond that, the team is terrific. We have already transplanted a couple of Levi's folks onto the Beyond Yoga team, so a person in marketing, a person in IT who is going to help a lot with e-commerce in that area, and we'll likely move a merchant down there as well. So we're starting to populate some Levi's folks down there.

當然。我想我想說的是幾件事。首先，我們已經完成了集成，我們真的非常非常高興。我的意思是沒有什麼大驚喜。我們得到了我們認為我們會得到的東西。這是一個重要的標題。那太棒了。但除此之外，團隊非常棒。我們已經將一些 Levi's 員工移植到 Beyond Yoga 團隊中，所以一個營銷人員，一個 IT 人員將在該領域的電子商務方面提供很多幫助，我們可能會將一個商人轉移到那裡也是。所以我們開始在那裡填充一些李維斯的人。

But it's still really, really early days. We talked on the prepared remarks about the men's pilot that they had right before the holidays. That was really, really good. And we will likely have a couple of stores before the end of this year. So we're feeling really, really positive. And as I've said many times, I think the future is really, really bright for this brand. It's an amazing product and it's a great team, and we're very, very optimistic right now.

但這仍然非常非常早期。我們談到了他們在假期前準備好的關於男子飛行員的評論。那真的，真的很好。我們可能會在今年年底之前開設幾家商店。所以我們感覺非常非常積極。正如我多次說過的那樣，我認為這個品牌的未來非常非常光明。這是一個了不起的產品，它是一個偉大的團隊，我們現在非常非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from Brooke Roach of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的布魯克·羅奇。

Chip, Harmit, AUR has been a strong contributor to Levi's growth versus 2019 levels this year. And it sounds like that has a lot of room to continue. Could you perhaps provide a bit of color on your outlook for sales volumes for the year and maybe the categories or channels where you see the largest opportunity for Levi's share volume capture to increase in this next fiscal year?

與今年 2019 年水平相比，Chip、Harmit、AUR 一直是李維斯增長的重要貢獻者。聽起來這還有很大的空間可以繼續。您能否就今年的銷量前景以及您認為在下一財年李維斯的份額獲取增加的最大機會的類別或渠道提供一些顏色？

Brooke, it's difficult to model with precision, but here's how we're thinking. If you look at the 11% to 12%, about 2% of that is thanks to the wonderful work that the Beyond Yoga team is doing. If you assume the rest is Levi's, it may be 1 point from Dockers but less -- it's largely Levi's. Our view is pricing is about half that. And the other is largely being driven by what I call higher DTC as well as just volumes. So that's how we're thinking about it at this point of time. Overall, for the year -- I think Chip referenced it, AURs were up 7%, most of it pricing for the quarter. AURs were up 10%. 70% of that was pricing. So that's how we're generally thinking about AURs growing -- what they are and where they're headed over time. And in terms of categories, it's primarily, I think, being driven by our bottoms business. And tops is underpenetrated as we tend to -- as we add more of a portfolio premium -- as we have premium tops to our portfolio that will help AURs over time.

布魯克，很難精確建模，但這就是我們的想法。如果你看一下 11% 到 12%，其中大約 2% 是由於 Beyond Yoga 團隊所做的出色工作。如果你假設其餘的是李維斯，它可能是 Dockers 的 1 分，但更少——主要是李維斯。我們的觀點是定價大約是這個價格的一半。另一個主要是由我所說的更高的 DTC 以及銷量驅動的。所以這就是我們目前正在考慮的方式。總體而言，這一年——我認為 Chip 引用了它，AUR 增長了 7%，其中大部分是在本季度定價。 AUR 增長了 10%。其中 70% 是定價。所以這就是我們通常認為 AUR 增長的方式——它們是什麼以及隨著時間的推移它們將走向何方。就類別而言，我認為這主要是由我們的底部業務驅動的。由於我們傾向於增加更多的投資組合溢價，因此頂部滲透不足，因為我們的投資組合中有溢價頂部，這將隨著時間的推移幫助 AUR。

Our next question comes from Jay Sole of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

Chip, my question is about the store rollout that you talked about earlier in the call with the NextGen stores. What are you seeing that makes you -- it seems like the rollout is happening faster. It's increasing. What are you seeing that makes you want to do that?

Chip，我的問題是關於您之前在與 NextGen 商店的電話會議中談到的商店推出。你看到了什麼讓你 - 似乎推出的速度更快。它在增加。你看到了什麼讓你想要這樣做？

And then for Harmit, it should be an interesting year from a top line perspective just because you had a lapping fiscal stimulus in March, in April in the U.S. and then there's a lot of easy compares in parts of the world where COVID was a big impact in 2021. So can you just give us an idea of the contours of the year from a quarterly perspective on where you expect the sales growth to be like maybe higher than average or lower than average?

然後對於哈米特來說，從收入的角度來看，這應該是有趣的一年，因為你在 3 月和 4 月在美國實施了財政刺激措施，然後在世界上 COVID 佔很大比例的地區進行了很多簡單的比較2021 年的影響。那麼，您能否從季度的角度向我們介紹一年的輪廓，您預計銷售增長可能高於平均水平或低於平均水平？

Yes. I'll hit the store thing real quickly. As we have been rolling out these NextGen stores, we've been really pleased with their performance. And literally kind of market by market when we go in with the NextGen store, remember the smaller -- they tend to be smaller footprint, more efficient, tight assortment, digitally enabled, an easy store to shop and a little bit more consumer-friendly, larger fitting rooms, better lighting. Almost market by market, they tend to outperform the old-format stores. Take a look at our ROIC for this past year. We're investing a lot of capital with -- into retail, and it's returning.

是的。我會很快找到商店的東西。當我們推出這些 NextGen 商店時，我們對他們的表現感到非常滿意。當我們進入 NextGen 商店時，從字面上看，逐個市場，記住較小的——它們往往佔地面積更小、效率更高、分類更緊湊、數字化、易於購物且對消費者更友好，更大的試衣間，更好的採光。幾乎逐個市場，它們的表現往往優於舊式商店。看看我們過去一年的投資回報率。我們正在將大量資金投入到零售業，而且它正在回歸。

And so I won't say every single one of these stores has met or beaten our expectation, but we're really pleased with it. And we know -- especially here in the U.S., we know we continue to have this opportunity to premiumize the marketplace. Just a couple of years ago, we only had 30 mainline doors. I'm not even sure if we crossed 50 at this point. And so there's still a lot of opportunity for productive mainline doors here in the U.S. but in other parts of the world as well. And so we think we're going to add about another 100 doors or so on a gross basis this year, and we're optimistic about it. It's a good time to be looking for real estate too in many markets.

因此，我不會說這些商店中的每一家都達到或超出了我們的預期，但我們對此感到非常滿意。而且我們知道——尤其是在美國，我們知道我們將繼續有機會將市場推向高端。就在幾年前，我們只有 30 個主線門。我什至不確定我們是否在這一點上超過了 50。因此，在美國這裡仍然有很多生產主線門的機會，但在世界其他地區也是如此。所以我們認為今年我們將再增加大約 100 扇門左右，我們對此持樂觀態度。現在也是在許多市場尋找房地產的好時機。

And to your question about first half, second half or the quarterly puts and takes, I'd say last year, our H1 relative to '19 was still down because we're dealing with store closures in Europe and in parts of Asia, et cetera. So the way we think about it is Q1 is probably up in the mid- to high teens. It would obviously vary by quarter. The second half is in the higher single digit. That's how we're thinking about revenue, U.S. generally strong through the year but Europe and Asia helping drive the swings.

對於你關於上半年、下半年或季度看跌期權的問題，我想說去年，我們的 H1 相對於 19 年仍然下降，因為我們正在處理歐洲和亞洲部分地區的商店關閉等問題等等。因此，我們認為 Q1 可能處於中高水平。它顯然會因季度而異。後半部分處於較高的個位數。這就是我們考慮收入的方式，美國全年總體強勁，但歐洲和亞洲幫助推動了波動。

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ike Boruchow。

Happy new year. Chip, 2 questions for you. Just there's a lot of investor trepidation in the space clearly for a couple of different reasons. But one is just the idea of the demand is going to be moderating to a point where maybe it becomes uncomfortable. I mean is there anything you can say about Q1 or quarter-to-date just from a demand perspective? Whether it's your own DTC business or your talks with your wholesale partners, that would be helpful for us. And then just to that point, on the wholesale side, any difference in those conversations within the mass channel versus the department store channel would be helpful.

新年快樂。芯片，給你 2 個問題。只是出於幾個不同的原因，該領域顯然存在很多投資者的恐懼。但一個是需求將放緩到可能變得不舒服的地步的想法。我的意思是，僅從需求的角度來看，您對第一季度或季度至今有什麼想說的嗎？無論是您自己的 DTC 業務還是您與批發合作夥伴的談判，這對我們都有幫助。然後就這一點而言，在批發方面，大眾渠道與百貨商店渠道中的這些對話的任何差異都會有所幫助。

Yes. I won't get down to customer-level detail, but part of the reason we sound optimistic is every signal we're looking at -- and I've got to say I'm probably the one who gets most paranoid and I'm always paranoid and I'm always looking for something that's going to send us sideways. And every signal that we look at right now, the consumer still looks pretty bullish and -- including credit card data that is fairly current. And that's true on a global basis. We've got good visibility to the order book in Europe, where there's this concept of pre-booking. The demand signal coming from there is very strong. We're still chasing here in the U.S. right now. And as you heard, we left demand on the table, if you will. We left 3 points of growth unfilled, and we're still chasing.

是的。我不會深入到客戶層面的細節，但我們聽起來很樂觀的部分原因是我們正在觀察的每一個信號——我不得不說我可能是最偏執的人，而且我我總是偏執，我一直在尋找能讓我們側身的東西。我們現在看到的每一個信號，消費者看起來仍然非常樂觀，而且——包括相當最新的信用卡數據。在全球範圍內都是如此。我們對歐洲的訂單有很好的了解，那裡有提前預訂的概念。來自那裡的需求信號非常強烈。我們現在仍在美國追逐。正如你所聽到的，如果你願意的話，我們會在桌面上留下需求。我們留下了 3 個增長點未填充，我們仍在追逐。

So -- but the Fed, I think right about the same time we started this call, announced an interest rate hike and inflation is partially psychological. And I've been there. I was in business in -- back in the early '80s. I remember it. And we're watching the consumer like a hawk. But right now, every signal that we're seeing is positive. And we know that we've been successful in getting pricing pass-through over the last 6 months. You see what's happened to our AUR. So -- but we'll keep an eye on it. And if we see the signal starting to change, we'll react quickly. But right now -- and if you look at the economist reports even from your own bank, they're all very, very optimistic right now about the consumers. So that's why we're feeling pretty good, and everything we're seeing suggests that.

所以——但我認為美聯儲在我們開始這次電話會議的同時宣布了加息，而通脹部分是心理上的。我去過那裡。早在 80 年代初，我就在做生意。我記得。我們像鷹一樣觀察消費者。但現在，我們看到的每一個信號都是積極的。而且我們知道，在過去 6 個月中，我們已經成功地獲得了定價傳遞。你看我們的 AUR 發生了什麼。所以 - 但我們會密切關注它。如果我們看到信號開始發生變化，我們會迅速做出反應。但是現在——如果你看看你自己銀行的經濟學家報告，他們現在對消費者都非常非常樂觀。所以這就是為什麼我們感覺很好，我們所看到的一切都表明了這一點。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to the company for any closing remarks.

謝謝你。在這個時候，我想把發言權交還給公司，以便發表任何結束語。

Okay. I think we may have left 1 or 2 or a couple of questions unanswered. I'm sorry about that. I know that Harmit and Aida will be doing follow-up calls with everybody. We try to be as quick as we could here. But in the interest of time and respecting everybody's calendar, we'll call it here. Thanks very much for joining us and for being along for the ride, and we'll speak to you at the next earnings call in a couple of months. Bye-bye.

好的。我想我們可能留下了 1 個或 2 個或幾個問題沒有得到解答。對此我很抱歉。我知道 Harmit 和 Aida 將與每個人進行後續通話。我們在這裡盡可能快。但是為了時間和尊重每個人的日曆，我們將其稱為此處。非常感謝您加入我們並一路同行，我們將在幾個月後的下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。再見。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路。